Source stringclasses 1
value | Date int64 1.98k 2.01k | Text stringlengths 2 27.1k | Token_count int64 1 5.57k |
|---|---|---|---|
fomc | 1,977 | Of course, there may be a distinction between accounts kept for tax purposes, which is the point that you're referring to. | 24 |
fomc | 1,977 | For reporting purposes. | 4 |
fomc | 1,977 | For reporting to stockholders, you cannot. What about your own internal-- | 15 |
fomc | 1,977 | You can only footnote it in your annual statement. | 11 |
fomc | 1,977 | What I think Jerry was saying [unintelligible] quarterly report from the annual report. | 19 |
fomc | 1,977 | You cannot do it on your quarterly report, and on your annual report you can always footnote it in the appendixes, and this is an Internal Revenue [Service] ruling that came in the night. | 41 |
fomc | 1,977 | Apparently there is some institutional problem in the sense that the people who report to the Census Bureau on book-value inventories give slightly different figures. | 27 |
fomc | 1,977 | To the Census Bureau it's an entirely different matter, but to the public stockholders, I have gone through this point personally. | 25 |
fomc | 1,977 | Just by way of comment, I thought it was interesting that in the Redbook this time there was reported quite a variety of views of businessmen--how businessmen view the inventory situation. And in that connection I would like to mention that the retailers represented on our board of directors--this was not in our contri... | 88 |
fomc | 1,977 | Meaning by that there were-- | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | Meaning that inventories currently are relatively high compared to sales. They are not optimistic on sales, and they observe a continuing high flow of new orders. And those who are in the manufacturing business, as well as retailing business, reported that they see this continued high flow of new orders to the manufact... | 81 |
fomc | 1,977 | I'm lost. New orders refer to what? | 9 |
fomc | 1,977 | The placement of orders to the manufacturer. | 8 |
fomc | 1,977 | For what? | 3 |
fomc | 1,977 | For-- | 2 |
fomc | 1,977 | Retail goods of a kind sold by retailers? | 9 |
fomc | 1,977 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, if they think that their inventories are top-heavy, why are they ordering at a high rate? | 21 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, this is their concern. What they are seeing is the orders from the industry flowing to the manufacturing part of their respective businesses and they report that they are in a situation again where the managements of the retail establishments are finding it difficult to hold down the placement of orders from thei... | 80 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, I think if that's their problem, they better tighten up their management techniques. I don't follow it. | 22 |
fomc | 1,977 | That's all, Mr. Chairman. | 7 |
fomc | 1,977 | Could I piggyback on this for just a minute? I wonder if we are not seeing a structural change in the ratio as a result of many of these firms having been burned on the inventory problems. And while we've talked about this for a long time, [a] number of companies have really increased their computer control of their ac... | 123 |
fomc | 1,977 | You think that's really biting? I've been saying that for 20 years. | 15 |
fomc | 1,977 | So have I. But when you look at what some of these major stores have done, you really get impressed. They are seeing rather dramatic changes-- | 30 |
fomc | 1,977 | In the last two or three or four years? | 10 |
fomc | 1,977 | Yes, well, even the last two years-- | 10 |
fomc | 1,977 | As I have read the statistics over the past year and a half, I think that we have had more prompt adjustments of inventories than previously. I think that's in process at the present time. And I think it's a very healthy thing. | 47 |
fomc | 1,977 | The main item in the GAF [general merchandise, apparel, and furniture] area is a thing that's happening--decreasing the number of items available. | 31 |
fomc | 1,977 | We've been talking about better control for some time, but we still had a pretty good inventory cycle last year. | 22 |
fomc | 1,977 | We sure did. | 4 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, we had a very minor inventory cycle. I think we're having one now. These minor inventory cycles prevent the major ones. Or that, I think, is at least a powerful tendency. Mr. Kimbrel, may we hear from you now? | 52 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Chairman, just a bit curious--in your basic assumptions, what are you incorporating about the minimum wage changes, and do these have any significant implications for your projections? | 35 |
fomc | 1,977 | Yes, we've introduced the minimum wage change which apparently has been agreed to by the Administration, that is $2.65 as of January 1, 1978. And that will be indexed to straight-time earnings in manufacturing, and that affects our compensation figures in earlier 1978 to the tune of--I don't remember--it's a couple of ... | 73 |
fomc | 1,977 | Somehow, the more we compute, the less we get. And what happens in the economy--we find it makes no difference. | 27 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, I may be wrong on that-- | 9 |
fomc | 1,977 | But look, when you raise the minimum wage, what you are doing is applying a lever to the entire wage structure. And every trade [union] leader knows that. And that's why he wants it. Now did you take that into account in your calculations? | 52 |
fomc | 1,977 | Yes-- | 2 |
fomc | 1,977 | We have the compensation-- | 5 |
fomc | 1,977 | Lifting the entire wage structure as a result of the lifting of the minimum wage? | 17 |
fomc | 1,977 | We have not explicitly sorted that out in our discussions internally. That was one of the factors that influenced us in showing a drifting up of compensation throughout 1978. | 33 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, I was getting at the numerical figure. The more I see the numbers, the less I want to see them. | 25 |
fomc | 1,977 | Let me correct my figure-- we've jacked up the first quarter of 1978 by 7/10 percentage point as a result of the minimum wage. It isn't quite as bad as I said; 3/4 percent effect of the minimum wage in the first quarter of '78. | 59 |
fomc | 1,977 | Now we are getting something. My confidence in numbers is rising. Let's move on to Mr. Jackson, please. | 23 |
fomc | 1,977 | I was just interested in the comparative mix proposed in automobile sales, which has been a major source of strength in the economy. And over the next quarter, or [few] quarters, it looks like you are staying pretty much constant about the total. But the mix between foreign and domestic looks like it changes. And I am ... | 270 |
fomc | 1,977 | But just the other way for existing houses. | 9 |
fomc | 1,977 | But, on the point of view of the GNP figures, [unintelligible]. | 19 |
fomc | 1,977 | Yes, but let the existing house sales increase, and the others will catch up a month, or two, or three later. | 26 |
fomc | 1,977 | Maybe yes, maybe no; time will tell. The disparity in prices makes you begin to wonder when you see the price differential now $10,000 on median prices. It will begin to have its impacts, I think. | 45 |
fomc | 1,977 | What is the differential? I'm sorry, I missed the point. | 13 |
fomc | 1,977 | The differential in price between existing and new houses. Wider and wider. | 14 |
fomc | 1,977 | About $10,000 you say? | 8 |
fomc | 1,977 | My recollection is that it is over $10,000. I have forgotten the figure. | 19 |
fomc | 1,977 | It used to be about 3. | 8 |
fomc | 1,977 | The median price for new housing is so substantially higher than the median price in existing houses. | 18 |
fomc | 1,977 | Yes, but the two are not comparable. You are talking about different kinds of housing. If you took existing houses of the same quality, I don't think you would get any such differential. | 38 |
fomc | 1,977 | I am suggesting that the capacity of the consumer to continue to pay for the new house is being diminished. And the capacity of the consumer to be willing to pay for the additional price of the new houses is being diminished. And in that way, sales of existing homes may not translate into sales of new ones. | 62 |
fomc | 1,977 | As far as consumer purchasing power goes, what difference does it make whether he buys a new house or an existing house? | 24 |
fomc | 1,977 | The difference in price. | 5 |
fomc | 1,977 | Or buying a different kind of house. | 8 |
fomc | 1,977 | So you trade down by buying a used house instead of a new one. That's your point, isn't it? | 22 |
fomc | 1,977 | What I'm really saying is, I think it's entirely possible that, while the psychology will probably offset the increased interest rates that you project, particularly the psychology of inflation in house prices--the consumer will not be as sensitive to increases in interest rates--I believe that the capacity to pay, des... | 114 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, we don't have a very bullish housing market. | 11 |
fomc | 1,977 | I know you don't have a bullish housing market, but I-- | 13 |
fomc | 1,977 | Close to 2 million-- | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | --I'm wondering whether even the slight increase you show might be in more doubt. | 16 |
fomc | 1,977 | We are not disturbed yet by those indicators, but they run in the direction that you pointed. And [with] the sales of new houses being down, along with the stock of unsold houses or completed new homes rising quite sharply in the last few months, it looks like there is something happening that's quite different than wh... | 253 |
fomc | 1,977 | All right, Mr. Eastburn now, please. | 11 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Chairman, my own view of the economic outlook would support the staff view that, if anything, the factors have become less strong than they had been before. This is partly a function of the situation in our own area, which, as the Redbook has indicated, is probably less ebullient than it is elsewhere. It is also pa... | 200 |
fomc | 1,977 | I don't know the answer to that question. Jerry, perhaps you are aware of something we have done. I think it's a good question. It certainly hasn't been done recently, and we can do that and provide you with the information without any difficulty. But I just can't answer it at this point. | 60 |
fomc | 1,977 | President Eastburn, on the face of it, unless you ignore the money demand, it depends on how you ask your question. The money demand function in the model cumulatively has been off $40 billion, so it's going to, I am sure, give very different GNP results for the Committee's money supply than our judgment. But of course... | 124 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, the main thrust of my question has to do with comparing our results as against the Greenbook results, because we have made fewer judgmental adjustments than I presume you have. As a result, our projections are less optimistic. | 46 |
fomc | 1,977 | That's right. That's what the model is currently showing-- | 11 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, what is the answer to your own question in terms of the operation of your shop? How good are the model projections, how good have they been? | 32 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, I think they've had the same kinds of errors that models have, and we have not-- | 20 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, have you gotten good predictions from your model, taking it as itself-- | 16 |
fomc | 1,977 | It's essentially the [Federal Reserve] System, not a [Federal Reserve] Board-- | 17 |
fomc | 1,977 | You haven't got good projections if it's a Board model. | 11 |
fomc | 1,977 | No. | 2 |
fomc | 1,977 | Because it has been off for years. | 8 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, this might answer the question, then-- | 10 |
fomc | 1,977 | Not quite. | 3 |
fomc | 1,977 | --under the circumstances, since we all are using essentially the same model. | 15 |
fomc | 1,977 | We'll try to run some very specific comparison, although it is rather difficult since you do have to introduce various assumptions. But we will see what we can come up with. Generally, what we do is evaluate individual sectors rather than the model as a whole, because they involve assumptions--an individual sector--whi... | 84 |
fomc | 1,977 | All right. Mr. Winn, please. | 9 |
fomc | 1,977 | My question has been answered. | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | I didn't know that any questions were answered today. Mr. Black, please. | 16 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Chairman, I held up my hand back when Mr. Baughman raised his question. I was just going to point out the availability of this constant-dollar inventory-sales ratio figure, so I have nothing more to add. | 46 |
fomc | 1,977 | Thank you. Mr. Coldwell, please. | 10 |
fomc | 1,977 | Jim, on the projection of net exports of goods and services, you're showing a shift from a negative 6 [to a] positive 2.1 between the first and fourth quarter, and then back to a negative 6 in the third quarter of '78. Would you give me a little of your rationale for getting there? | 67 |
fomc | 1,977 | I'd like to pass that question to Ted Truman, who is more familiar with this portion of the projection than I am. | 24 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, basically, as is often the case in the international area, that is an oil-related phenomenon. | 21 |
fomc | 1,977 | That is what? | 4 |
fomc | 1,977 | An oil-related phenomenon. You had a big buildup in oil imports in the first quarter. A combination between that buildup, which was weather related, and Alaskan oil coming in, which damps down our rate of growth in imports--in fact, reduces it. It's largely what gives you that swing between the first and fourth quarter... | 67 |
fomc | 1,977 | What brings you back up then? | 7 |
fomc | 1,977 | What brings you back is the end of a sort of honeymoon with Alaskan oil, where the marginal supply, as the economy grows, starts coming from imports again. Plus, the [oil] stockpile program. The government stockpile program will add $3 billion to oil imports currently estimated for 1978. | 63 |
fomc | 1,977 | So you are saying that the entire swing in net exports is an oil-related phenomenon. | 17 |
fomc | 1,977 | Yes, most of it. Most of it is a swing in the irregularity of it, if I can put it that way. Yes. | 29 |
fomc | 1,977 | Any other questions or comment. I find myself in a listless mood today. I have not helped this discussion any. I have no clear impression of what we have done or what we have accomplished, if anything, in this morning's discussion. The staff has presented a pretty optimistic picture of the state of the economy and wher... | 226 |
fomc | 1,977 | I was about to make an observation on this point. As a preliminary, I continue to find, in the contacts I have with the business community, that there seems to be quite a discrepancy between their mood and what the figures seem to show. We are coming off of a very rapid growth period, but a very distinct mood of cautio... | 118 |
fomc | 1,977 | I think we have been for about 2 to 2-1/2 months. | 18 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.