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fomc | 1,977 | President Mayo, I think it has been blown out of proportion. Whether it isn't at all significant--I think it has some minor significance. We did put our estimate of the magnitude into the first part of the Greenbook, in the outlook, buried in the footnote--it's put in a complicated way there, but what it amounts to is ... | 198 |
fomc | 1,977 | That's when it is, mid-March to mid-April? | 13 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, in March and June they make up their payments for 1976, so that make-up of the payments in '76 occurs in mid-March and mid-June; and in April, it's the first of their 1977 liability [payments]. So, if the experience of '76 causes them to increase their '77 estimates, you get an effect in the beginning of that sta... | 81 |
fomc | 1,977 | But it comes at approximately the same time that the Treasury would have to finance the refund, also. | 20 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, the refunds of the '76 taxes to individuals-- | 12 |
fomc | 1,977 | No, I mean the rebate. | 7 |
fomc | 1,977 | Oh, we expect the rebates will be in May. So, in coming through this whole period-- | 20 |
fomc | 1,977 | Thank you, Steve, I heard a figure in excess of $10 billion, which seemed awful high at the time. This reassures me. | 29 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, we expect total payments will exceed their accruals by about $8 billion. That may be in that order of magnitude, but that figure is itself about $3 billion more than in '76. | 42 |
fomc | 1,977 | This is really not a synthesis [unintelligible]. I thought the pause was a pause; many of us did. I was very interested in the external factors--OPEC. December came and went, and we didn't get a 15 percent rise or a 10 percent rise; we got something else. I think I understand the reluctance of businesses to spend for l... | 418 |
fomc | 1,977 | I would want to talk mainly about what I think might be in store for the unemployment rate in the immediate future. Last year, during the spring season, the unemployment rate was going down rapidly, in part because GNP was going rapidly in the first quarter, but also in part because the seasonals were probably out of w... | 140 |
fomc | 1,977 | When are we getting new seasonals? | 8 |
fomc | 1,977 | They normally come in February. | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | I've already heard about a slight adjustment--that is, the 7.9 will be 7.8 for December on the basis of new seasonals. Do you know about that? | 38 |
fomc | 1,977 | I have not heard that yet. But that would not surprise me. That's the direction we would have expected. Now I think also that when you see a pickup in activity as we have seen in the last couple of months, you have to anticipate that it's not going to affect the unemployment rate in a substantial way for a few months. ... | 136 |
fomc | 1,977 | Lyle, yours is good classical analysis. But it leaves out of account a new factor that has been disturbing our judgments and our forecast, and that is what may happen with the labor force. | 39 |
fomc | 1,977 | The labor force is a very erratically moving series, and it could be growing substantially next year. We have allowed in our projections for a sizable increase, an increase of around 2 million, in the labor force. That's less than what we have had over this past year. But it's far above what we used to think of as the ... | 101 |
fomc | 1,977 | I would only question the word "erratic." It might be a systematic factor in changing habits and new pressures arising from inflation, as the factors impinge on families, women joining the labor force--well, because people like to live better, and they certainly don't want to see their standard of living coming down. A... | 202 |
fomc | 1,977 | I'd like to ask Lyle a question about the velocity estimates that seem to be implicit in the Greenbook forecast this time. With the 5-1/2 percent M1 growth assumption, it appears that the velocity of M1 will be at the highest rate of growth in the third year of recovery of any of the post-Korean [War] cycles--namely 5.... | 180 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Axilrod, I think, is the person that would have the answers for that. | 20 |
fomc | 1,977 | That's a good move, Lyle. | 8 |
fomc | 1,977 | I thought so too. | 5 |
fomc | 1,977 | One thing I would do, President Balles--we were well aware of the high velocity, of course--is reduce, to take a percentage point [off velocity] as reflecting the ongoing shift from M1 to other deposits or other money market instruments as people seek to economize--[a] trend that has been occurring over the past few ye... | 300 |
fomc | 1,977 | Is it also a rather high real GNP increase for the third year of recovery? | 17 |
fomc | 1,977 | Yes it is, but it is certainly not unprecedented. | 11 |
fomc | 1,977 | That tends to add to this pressure on velocity? | 10 |
fomc | 1,977 | It's not unlike, as I remember the numbers, what happened in 1963, although I believe the pickup there, after the pause of '61, was even a little more rapid than what we have had. | 43 |
fomc | 1,977 | Thank you, Mr. Balles. Mr. Black, please. | 14 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Chairman, I wonder if I might ask you a question? A while ago you indicated that you did not think businessmen yet realized the extent of the federal deficit or the inflationary implication of that. Do you anticipate that this will have a significant impact on either the timing or the amount of business capital spe... | 63 |
fomc | 1,977 | I would not anticipate much response in that direction. I would anticipate protective measures by businessman: raising prices to the extent that they can--more than they would want to-- | 34 |
fomc | 1,977 | Any inventory buildup? | 4 |
fomc | 1,977 | Not really, because businessmen very rarely speculate on inventories, and the mood has not been in that direction. The only recent year when we've had significant inventory speculations was, I think, 1974 [and] to some degree 1973. Normally, speculation on inventory--I don't think [it] is a part of business practice. | 69 |
fomc | 1,977 | In the longer run or shorter run? | 8 |
fomc | 1,977 | Shorter run. I'm thinking of 1977. | 11 |
fomc | 1,977 | Most businessmen, if they think there's going to be a substantial increase in the next two quarters, will cover themselves. But you might call that a speculation or you might also call that hedging. | 39 |
fomc | 1,977 | That's true in materials and intermediate goods, not in finished goods. So you get a substantial disparity based on the stage in process. | 26 |
fomc | 1,977 | And I would expect that the inflationary expectations I spoke of are being reflected in prices, making their own forecast, to some degree, come true. And I would expect it in interest rates. The effects on capital spending, if any would come later, might come toward the end of '77, and my feeling is that it will come i... | 78 |
fomc | 1,977 | I have a slightly different judgment on this question, Mr. Chairman. I would think that once the perception of these [large-]size deficits takes place, we are likely to see a continuation of what we have already seen--a desire on the part of businesses to get their long-term financing accomplished rather promptly, part... | 72 |
fomc | 1,977 | That would depend on rate movements. | 7 |
fomc | 1,977 | Right. Second, I would guess that you see maybe a very, very short-term acceleration in capital spending as people try to get projects completed that are in process of construction, and an attempt to get under firm contract things that are committed but are not nailed down as to price. But over the long-term, I would t... | 80 |
fomc | 1,977 | You and I are on the same track. | 9 |
fomc | 1,977 | Yes, I would have a slightly different judgment about the consequences for the economy for '77 to those expressed. I think my own judgment about the actually measured economic progress wouldn't be too different. My own judgment would be that the public perception of that progress would not be as strong as the actual me... | 182 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, basically, this is based on a measure of capacity of the economy. The unemployment rate just happens to fall out. But it doesn't depend on a direct measure of unemployment. | 36 |
fomc | 1,977 | 4.96 percent is an amazing figure. | 9 |
fomc | 1,977 | And I think many people would say that 4.9 is lower than can be reached, actually for labor force reasons rather than for capital capacity reasons. | 31 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, I don't think Mr. Partee intended to suggest that the second decimal had any significance; he might even question the first. | 27 |
fomc | 1,977 | I certainly wanted only to report to the Committee the figures. I think it is a good thing to allow for structural change in talking about what the economy would hope to accomplish, and in that sense I think this is a real move forward compared with the way we used to measure potential GNP and [with] a 4 percent unempl... | 73 |
fomc | 1,977 | When we talk about structural change, I think that's true of the labor force, too, as we talk about the public perception of economic progress. When you see about 40 percent of the women as participants in the work force, I think our perception of an acceptable unemployment level for those participants in the work forc... | 67 |
fomc | 1,977 | As a matter of potential output, I wrote a paper in 1935 in which I attempted to demonstrate by impeccable logic that potential output cannot be measured. I have lived during periods when this has become a habit. Well, I don't think I've changed my mind. Mr. Partee you were going to make a point? | 65 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, I was just going to ask, following up on Governor Gardner's comments and also Governor Lilly. One of the problems is in this question of the political perception--and also your comment--[regarding] the rate of improvement in the economy. A little technical difficulty in the staff's projection, Lyle, is that the l... | 173 |
fomc | 1,977 | Yes, they both could. We have expected some decline in housing starts, largely on technical grounds, in December. I haven't seen the figures yet, but judging by the Chairman's earlier comment, it doesn't sound as though we made a very accurate decision in that regard. But I commented earlier, in response to President E... | 163 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, at this point I would join, to an attenuated degree, Mr. Coldwell's comment on erratic movement. We may well get an erratic movement of inventory change in the next year. Sharp buildup, slowdown. | 47 |
fomc | 1,977 | The point that I was trying to make with Lyle is that output could go up faster here. It would show up in a little more inventory accumulation. | 31 |
fomc | 1,977 | That would be my guess. | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | I think it's a very real possibility, yes. | 10 |
fomc | 1,977 | For the year as whole, that's another matter. | 10 |
fomc | 1,977 | Would the weather, natural gas situation impact on this prospect? | 12 |
fomc | 1,977 | It might, yes. We are going to be contacting the Reserve Banks right after this meeting this weekend to ask them to help us ascertain what the weather may mean for production. But I heard on the radio this morning that there are at least four states that are quite worried: Ohio, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. A... | 108 |
fomc | 1,977 | It strikes me as a possibility--the inventory accumulation could be delayed even though it might be not be canceled at this time. | 25 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, if you apply standard seasonals, you may find that activity shows a decline when the seasonals which you ought to be applying are of a different character, because we are having an unusual winter--an unusual January. And that will certainly have to be watched very carefully. I would use a standard seasonal, and t... | 152 |
fomc | 1,977 | Just one other observation on the employment side, Mr. Chairman. I don't want this to be interpreted as expressing any lack of concern for the point that Steve mentioned, which I share, but I made the point before that I wondered what would happen if we just took civilian employment and related it to population in the ... | 271 |
fomc | 1,977 | Does your figure adjust for military and government workers? | 10 |
fomc | 1,977 | This is just civilian, but it includes government civilians. | 11 |
fomc | 1,977 | What is the percentage ratio, Lyle, of total employment to the total population of age 16 and over? | 23 |
fomc | 1,977 | It's been going up. I don't have a figure in my head as to the precise ratio. | 19 |
fomc | 1,977 | I mean, is it at a record level? | 10 |
fomc | 1,977 | It is, it is. | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | I thought so--at a record level. That, perhaps, is a more significant figure, Bob. | 21 |
fomc | 1,977 | Yes, it's less gross. | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | Less gross, less subject to some questioning or criticism one might make because the base there is the potential working population. | 23 |
fomc | 1,977 | Of course, there are differences again, over time, as to what proportion of those slightly under 16 or slightly over 16 are working or aren't. This is merely a terribly simple-minded approach that anybody can look at. And, by the way, the Wall Street Journal yesterday had a column that approached this same point. It's ... | 124 |
fomc | 1,977 | Very good. Any other questions? Yes, Mr. Winn. | 13 |
fomc | 1,977 | Just to comment on the situation in Ohio and western Pennsylvania and the problem with information, we have checked-- | 21 |
fomc | 1,977 | Would you also comment on natural gas? | 8 |
fomc | 1,977 | --yes, we had contacted the utility companies to get some feel [for] this, and we knew that one company had real problems with gas supply. The others assured us that it didn't make any difference what the weather was, they were going to be able to handle any kind of need, and at the moment they are all shut down. And a... | 118 |
fomc | 1,977 | That's been predicted for Ohio for a long time. | 10 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, that's because of one company that sold gas they didn't have, but many of the companies have got out and drilled their own wells, and we have had all kinds of scurrying for just this sort of emergency. But we're shut, there's no question. Perhaps this is good in the long run--that we will now, as a nation, face u... | 121 |
fomc | 1,977 | We have had natural gas shut off to a number of large users, but they have been able to convert to other fuels, and there has been no big unemployment as a result of this, or plant closings. | 43 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Chairman, may I just follow up on John Balles's complications. Our people feel very strongly that the projections of growth in the Greenbook are impossible to achieve at the rate of money growth which is assumed in those projections. We feel that our model, although it probably has been frozen in recent weeks--I'm ... | 118 |
fomc | 1,977 | I think that's entirely valid, but I would have liked your comments better if you had not based it on the model. The St. Louis model does not get high marks for its predictive power. In fact, it gets very low marks in the economics profession. Am I right on that? | 58 |
fomc | 1,977 | You are correct, yes. | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | Fuel injection has been changed recently. | 7 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, gentlemen, any other comments on the economy? Well, let's take a brief coffee break now. | 21 |
fomc | 1,977 | Gentlemen, we want to turn now to the discussion of our longer-term targets, and we will first turn to the monetary aggregates. I think members of the Committee know that the House Banking Committee will be holding a hearing on February 3 under the House Concurrent Resolution. I will be testifying on that subject on th... | 1,147 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Chairman, I'd like to spend a little bit more time on the question of the degree to which monetary policy should work with fiscal policy in this coming quarter. I think this is a very difficult task. | 42 |
fomc | 1,977 | Coming quarter or coming year? | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, in setting a long-term target, of course, we're setting a year's target, but since we do this quarterly, I think we do have another shot at it in a few months, and I think it would be in the near-term when the fiscal package would be going into effect. I find it helpful to go back and look at what happened in 197... | 109 |
fomc | 1,977 | It has been both criticized and applauded, with more of the latter than the former. | 18 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, it has given rise to some speculation that the Fed will try to avoid that kind of criticism by doing something different. Anyhow, I found it helpful to go back and look at '75, and I'd like to review that briefly. What happened was that the funds rate moved up somewhat to help keep the aggregates under control in... | 268 |
fomc | 1,977 | Thank you, Mr. Eastburn. Mr. Black, please. | 14 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Chairman, I've struggled with this dilemma that you described so well, and I reached pretty much the same sort of conclusion that you have, that despite the political problems that do arise from adjusting these rates down, that we ought to make a small move. I was a little surprised, really, that you knocked down t... | 127 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, there's a lot to be said for that. I struggled with that issue, and I'm not at all sure that I came out correctly. The effect on the midpoint is the same. | 38 |
fomc | 1,977 | I think that's important. | 5 |
fomc | 1,977 | And in that sense, the two are interchangeable. By leaving the upper value where it is, we would be less likely--that was my reason--to attract, or to encourage, or to excite criticism. Now, the troublesome figure is the high point, you see, the high value. And it's that high value that is outside the range of historic... | 139 |
fomc | 1,977 | My feeling was sort of that they're saying, "My gosh, they're willing to tolerate only 7 percent growth in M2 with an inflation rate such as we've got, that's just not adequate." But your reasoning may be better on that. I don't have a great deal of trouble with one or the other. Some move, I think, should be made. | 72 |
fomc | 1,977 | May I ask a question? In the past construction of the long-term rates, did you assign a weighting to the three Ms for the longer-terms? | 31 |
fomc | 1,977 | No, but in our shorter-term targets we've been operating under the general rule for some months now of giving approximately equal weight to M1 and M2. And since there is some relationship between the short-term and the long-term, even though it's a somewhat tenuous relationship, there is some carry-over--but only to a ... | 88 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Chairman, I particularly appreciate your willingness early to give some evaluation of your reading of the possibility of thwarting fiscal policy by any action of ours. Candidly, I would feel somewhat reluctant to raise the M1 ranges, but I continue to be, as expressed earlier, very much attentive to inflationary po... | 135 |
fomc | 1,977 | Thank you, Mr. Kimbrel. Mr. Jackson, please. | 15 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Chairman, I think the one thing we need to recognize in the discussion we're having, particularly in the M2 and M3 measures, is that the retention of approximately the same targets [assumes] a substantial reduction in the rate of growth in time and savings deposits, both in commercial banks and in thrift institutio... | 451 |
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