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fomc | 1,977 | Well, it will be a monetary aggregates directive. Are there any comments that the members of the Committee would like to make at this time? | 28 |
fomc | 1,977 | My one comment is perhaps along the line which Steve Gardner already said. But where I balk with the 6-3/4 [percent federal funds rate], if that's still an open question--if you got an aggregate right on the margin of this range that we're adopting, 6-3/4 seems to me to be inappropriate. It wouldn't seem to me to be in... | 144 |
fomc | 1,977 | 7 percent at the top. 7 percent is pretty likely, pretty likely [the] outcome. | 20 |
fomc | 1,977 | You'd almost have to say you go to 6-3/4 percent right away. | 19 |
fomc | 1,977 | As it is, it seems to me what that does, Mr. Chairman, is really raise quite high odds that we will be at or close to 6-1/2. And if October [rises sharply], of course, we will have to go above. Even if it doesn't, I think the odds are very high that we'll be close to 6-1/2. | 79 |
fomc | 1,977 | With a 6-1/2. | 9 |
fomc | 1,977 | I don't know anything about the odds, and I marvel at your knowledge, but-- | 17 |
fomc | 1,977 | I'm taking the estimate of 6.6 percent for the monthly growth rate for September as having some plausibility. | 23 |
fomc | 1,977 | That's a little softer. Gentlemen, I think the time for argument has passed; we need a decision. Let's have a show of hands now because we've had an opportunity to rethink our positions. As I indicated, there was some preference for a federal funds rate range of 6 to 6-1/2 as voiced by members of the Committee, and pos... | 132 |
fomc | 1,977 | Six. | 2 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, I'll have to make that seven. Any other questions to come up? | 16 |
fomc | 1,977 | Have you settled on the midpoint? | 7 |
fomc | 1,977 | I think we have. | 5 |
fomc | 1,977 | 6-1/4-- | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | May I ask a question, Mr. Chairman? | 10 |
fomc | 1,977 | Please. | 2 |
fomc | 1,977 | If the Committee chooses to adopt the 3 to 7 percent range for M1 and a 4 to 8 for M2, and the staff's projection of approximately 7 percent increase in M1 and a comparable increase for M2 arrives, comes to fruition, to the extent that we will understand it as the period develops, could I ask Alan where you would move ... | 81 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, I think if it really were at the very top of the range, we would gradually move toward that. But as you know, we get new projections each week. I wouldn't jump all the way to 6-1/2 in one week. | 52 |
fomc | 1,977 | That's the reason I predicated my question on the assumption that the results are what the staff projected. Namely about a 7 percent increase. | 29 |
fomc | 1,977 | I think we would move decisively at least to the midpoint, maybe a bit beyond, and then wait for another week to see if the next week's projections kept this at 7. But not jump in one fell swoop. | 46 |
fomc | 1,977 | Did I understand your answer to be that if, say, by the third week, it still affirmed a likely projection of 7 percent, you would likely be at 6-1/2 percent? | 41 |
fomc | 1,977 | Or very close to it. | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, that's what I concluded. | 7 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, I think what Mr. Holmes is saying is that he would be following a standard procedure. | 20 |
fomc | 1,977 | Clarification, Mr. Chairman, is it 2 to 7 on M1 or 3 to 7? | 24 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, let's have a show of hands on this. How many prefer 2 to 7 for M1 as over against 3 to 7? | 31 |
fomc | 1,977 | Five. | 2 |
fomc | 1,977 | How many prefer 3 to 7 as over against 2 to 7 for M1? | 20 |
fomc | 1,977 | Two. | 2 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, our arithmetic being what it is, we'll put 2 to 7 to a vote if there are no further questions or comments. Are there any further questions? Let's vote on the following: a monetary aggregates directive, a rate of growth of M1 of 2 to 7 [percent], a range of 4 to 8 for M2, a range of 6 to 6-1/2 for the federal fund... | 142 |
fomc | 1,977 | Chairman Burns Yes Vice Chairman Volcker Yes Governor Coldwell Yes Governor Gardner Yes President Guffey Yes Governor Jackson Yes Governor Lilly No President Mayo Yes President Morris No Governor Partee No President Roos No Governor Wallich No Seven to five, Mr. Chairman. | 53 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, let's stop and deliberate it. I think that would be a very unfortunate vote. To me, the Committee is split badly. It would mean that this would excite a great deal of discussion that would not bring honor or credit to the Committee, and therefore I think we must seek to accommodate one another. I didn't think our... | 96 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Chairman, if the range for the aggregates were widened [at the upper end] to accommodate 8 for M1 and 9 for M2, I would go with it. | 38 |
fomc | 1,977 | All right, was that-- | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | I'd add one thing, and that would be an asymmetrical 6-1/8. | 19 |
fomc | 1,977 | If we're going in that direction, I'd want a 3/4 [percentage point federal funds rate] range, too. | 25 |
fomc | 1,977 | Gentlemen we can't--these differences are minor. Let us practice a little humility and accommodate one another and not be all over the lot because of minute differences. I'm perfectly willing to put Mr. Partee's suggestion to a vote. I will accept Mr. Partee's suggestion changing the limits, the ranges of M1 and M2 and... | 106 |
fomc | 1,977 | Chairman Burns Yes Vice Chairman Volcker Yes Governor Coldwell No Governor Gardner Yes President Guffey Yes Governor Jackson Yes Governor Lilly No President Mayo Yes President Morris No Governor Partee Yes Governor Roos No Governor Wallich No Seven to five. | 49 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, I think that patience is an indispensable commodity all of us are in possession of, that abundant commodity, so therefore I will entertain another suggestion. | 30 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, let me try, Mr. Chairman, since I ruined the shift on that. Suppose we just take the M1 at 2 to 8, leave Mr. Partee's 4 to 9 on M2, use the 6 to 6-1/2 as the fed funds range, put a 1/8 asymmetrical position but with the understanding that it moves to a 1/4 if the figures confirm the staff projection. | 94 |
fomc | 1,977 | All right, I'm going to put that to a vote, Mr. Coldwell's specification: 2 to 8 for M1, 4 to 9 for M2, 6 to 6-1/2 for the federal funds rate, the midpoint to be 6-1/8, an asymmetrical midpoint, but of course depending on the evolution of the monetary aggregates figures as to when we move away from that midpoint. Would... | 99 |
fomc | 1,977 | Chairman Burns Yes Vice Chairman Volcker Yes Governor Coldwell Yes Governor Gardner No President Guffey Yes Governor Jackson Yes Governor Lilly Yes President Mayo Yes President Morris No Governor Partee Yes President Roos No Governor Wallich No Eight to four. | 49 |
fomc | 1,977 | Gentlemen, the original vote stands. The first vote. We're divided. I think it's unfortunate, I think it's undesirable, and I don't know what has gotten into this group. But if that's the kind of life you want to lead, you have my blessing. You're a good group, but you've gone haywire today. Now, I've shown a willingne... | 95 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Chairman, I don't want to make a proposal, but I wonder if I might just point out, the midpoint for the 2 to 8 [range for M1] is 5 percent, if I figured that right. And this would trigger action if [M1 came] in above 5 percent. So, some of those who are worried about the 8 percent, I think, will be accommodated by ... | 105 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Roos. | 5 |
fomc | 1,977 | Yes sir. | 3 |
fomc | 1,977 | You have been in the habit of bringing people together. Do you have a suggestion to make today? | 20 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Chairman, the trend during this patience operation has gone the opposite direction. My concern--and I would like to explain, to clear the air, that St. Louis is not falling into a maverick position. I have a very honest and sincere belief that we are doing the wrong thing. It's not a matter of a few numbers. I mean... | 117 |
fomc | 1,977 | Let me try the original vote once again, that is to say, the original suggestion I made--we haven't improved matters much. And let's try and really show a little more humility than we have at this meeting. I suggest an M1 range of 2 to 7, an M2 range of 4 to 8, a federal funds rate range of 6 to 6-1/2 with a midpoint o... | 99 |
fomc | 1,977 | Before you do that, can I explore a little as to why the last proposal of Phillip Coldwell, which brought me around, picked up a vote, is not closer to the compromise than the first one? | 42 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, I don't think it's sufficiently different, you see. That is, [votes of] seven to five, eight to four. Seven to five--that expressed, I thought, more clearly the information that I had about a broad sentiment as reported by Mr. Broida. Let's vote on that. | 62 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Chairman, may I make one more observation before we vote. I came in here with the intention of departing from my usual procedure and recommending a money market directive with a feeling of 5 percent [upper limit] on M1. That, to me, is the same thing as a range from 2 to 7 on the aggregates directive because it tri... | 133 |
fomc | 1,977 | I don't know that this has been the history in the last few months. The action hasn't kept this thing from being at the very top of the range. | 31 |
fomc | 1,977 | On an aggregates directive, you trigger action when it passes the midpoint; on a money market directive, you trigger action when it passes the ceiling. And I'm just trying to point out that I think this is almost equivalent to a money market directive with a ceiling of 5 percent on M1 and a ceiling of 6 percent on M2, ... | 82 |
fomc | 1,977 | Let's try the voting once again. | 7 |
fomc | 1,977 | Now, this is on the first vote? | 9 |
fomc | 1,977 | Yes. Shall I repeat the proposal? It's apparently understood. Would you be good enough to call the roll. | 22 |
fomc | 1,977 | Chairman Burns Yes Vice Chairman Volcker Yes Governor Coldwell Yes Governor Gardner Yes President Guffey Yes Governor Jackson Yes Governor Lilly No President Mayo Yes President Morris No Governor Partee Yes President Roos No Governor Wallich No Eight to four. | 49 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, does anyone else have a suggestion? | 9 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Chairman, if I sense the thrust of the discussion that we have had, it appears to be considerable concern that the adoption of a monetary aggregates directive with midpoints expressed the way they are would result in a relatively certain move to the upper ends of the federal funds range. [And] perhaps a greater lik... | 181 |
fomc | 1,977 | Your suggestion, Mr. Holmes. | 7 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Chairman, may I just make one comment. The Board projection really is at the top of the M1 range. I don't put this out as any solace, but the New York projection is 1-1/2 percent lower than that, or very close to the midpoint of that 2 to 7 percent. These are projections we are talking about. | 74 |
fomc | 1,977 | What about M2, Alan? What's your M2 projection? | 13 |
fomc | 1,977 | We'd be on the high side. | 8 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Chairman, I wonder if there is any possibility that we might resolve one or two votes. I doubt that we can resolve all of them because we have a conflicting viewpoint on both sides of the spectrum. But I wonder if it is possible to shift one or two by talking about a 6-1/8 [midpoint for the federal funds rate range... | 84 |
fomc | 1,977 | I thought we already voted on that. | 8 |
fomc | 1,977 | No, we had 6-1/4. And if we changed that last specification to 6-1/8-- | 26 |
fomc | 1,977 | That is, that M1 would remain 2 to 7. We will make another vote now: M1, 2 to 7; M2, 4 to 8; federal funds rate range 6 to 6-1/2, with the midpoint of the federal funds rate range to be asymmetrical to 6-1/8. Differing from the vote we have just taken in the specification of the midpoint. Is that clear? All right, let'... | 102 |
fomc | 1,977 | Chairman Burns Yes Vice Chairman Volcker Yes Governor Coldwell Yes Governor Gardner Yes President Guffey Yes Governor Jackson Yes Governor Lilly Yes President Mayo No President Morris No Governor Partee Yes President Roos No Governor Wallich No Eight to four. | 49 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, any other suggestions? | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | Let's stick with the original vote. | 7 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, the original vote has been modified. | 9 |
fomc | 1,977 | I agree. | 3 |
fomc | 1,977 | All right, I want to be sure now, in view of all the voting that we've done, that we know how we have come out. Now, the vote to be recorded is as follows: this is voting on 2 to 7 for M1; 4 to 8 for M2; 6 to 6-1/2 for the federal funds rate range, midpoint to be 6-1/4; and a monetary aggregates directive. Those dissen... | 167 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Gardner is absent today. As far as possible, I would like to have the full Federal Reserve family present at a meeting where quasi-final decisions with regard to monetary policy are made. And in view of that, we can get through as much business as we can this afternoon and stop short of trying to reach any decision... | 104 |
fomc | 1,977 | I move that it be approved. | 7 |
fomc | 1,977 | Second. | 2 |
fomc | 1,977 | And that's been accomplished. We will turn at once to a review of the condition of our economy, and we need to examine the condition of our economy with special care at this meeting, not only because this meeting precedes one of our quarterly hearings before the Congress but also because the state of the economy is les... | 106 |
fomc | 1,977 | [Statement--see Appendix.] | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | [Statement--see Appendix.] | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | [Interrupting] May I just ask a question? I'm puzzled by that first chart. The black line is below the red line with a few exceptions. What does that first chart mean? | 38 |
fomc | 1,977 | A very good point. And my first observation, it appears to me that there may have been a plotting error because one would think it would go directly through. | 32 |
fomc | 1,977 | That's the way it used to be done. | 9 |
fomc | 1,977 | We've introduced some new techniques, but that's not one of them. | 13 |
fomc | 1,977 | I can see it being off part of the time, but it seems to me that it's off the line far too much. Now we have to assume that the general configuration [unintelligible]. | 40 |
fomc | 1,977 | I'm wondering, though; it may be statistically possible because there is some slope to the curve. It's taking off of figures from the preceding year. | 29 |
fomc | 1,977 | One thing we can do, obviously, is to ignore the three-month moving average. | 17 |
fomc | 1,977 | I think another thing we can do is to move on. | 12 |
fomc | 1,977 | [Statement continues--see Appendix.] | 7 |
fomc | 1,977 | Do we have figures on the first third? | 9 |
fomc | 1,977 | Yes. The auto sales on domestic was a 9.1 million annual rate in the first 10 days. We don't get foreign sales, however, on a 10-day basis. | 38 |
fomc | 1,977 | [Statement--see Appendix.] | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | [Statement--see Appendix.] | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | Thank you very much Mr. Kichline and Mr. Zeisel and Mr. Truman. We are ready now for a Committee discussion of the state of the economy and the outlook for the months and quarters immediately ahead, and I think we ought to take as much time as is needed to express our views individually and to educate one another to th... | 79 |
fomc | 1,977 | I'd like to [ask] one discrete question to start with, Mr. Chairman. Mr. Truman, in the material on net exports and imports, on this chart you're showing on the export side a very large increase in nonagricultural volume--I guess about a 10 percent increase in volume--if I can read it from the chart, which is terribly ... | 103 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, on the volume side we do expect, as that first chart shows, some resumption in growth abroad, or faster growth abroad--something around the 5 percent level in contrast to the 3 percent level on average this year. So that's been generating a good deal of the volume. And the value--I think there's probably more of ... | 103 |
fomc | 1,977 | If I draw my lines over correctly, you're about $25 billion on a $100 billion base; that's 25 percent. Is that right? Start to the end of the period, now--I'm not talking about the whole forecast period. | 48 |
fomc | 1,977 | Fourth quarter over fourth quarter, we've had about a 9 percent increase in the price of nonagricultural exports. | 24 |
fomc | 1,977 | So you have a 9 percent price increase and 9 or 10 in volume increase, which would compound to be over 20 percent. Seems like a very large increase to me. | 38 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, let there be a touch of optimism today. | 11 |
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