Source stringclasses 1
value | Date int64 1.98k 2.01k | Text stringlengths 2 27.1k | Token_count int64 1 5.57k |
|---|---|---|---|
fomc | 1,978 | An argument in writing? | 5 |
fomc | 1,978 | It seems to me that we have an overwhelming view that we are not [going to] take the proposal to indicate mechanical devices. I think there could be qualitative as well as quantitative looks. But I think the whole process of this Committee should be a living one. It seems to me that we should be open-minded and there s... | 142 |
fomc | 1,978 | That completes our presentation, Mr. Chairman. | 9 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you very much Jim, Jerry, and Ted. At this time I would suggest a general discussion. And in case any of you are concerned as to whether we are going to repeat the exercise of your own projections for GNP, prices, and unemployment, I would suggest that our discussion now assume there is no change in them and we w... | 105 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, I would like to ask a question with respect to the home component of [the staff's] presentation. To what extent have you factored in the multifamily developments, which are really quite spectacular, offsetting the single-family decline? [By that I mean] the changes that have taken place in the financing a... | 120 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, you are quite right in noting that the multifamily area is the one source of strength. The weakening that we have in prospect is essentially in the private sector--that is the single-family sector. You must note, however, that by the third or fourth quarter of this year we have multifamily starts at around 500,00... | 183 |
fomc | 1,978 | The interesting thing is that with the increases in rents that are taking place, you change your calculations pretty fast. And even though there is increased cost in the multifamily area, the borrowing hasn't increased and there has been an increase in equity. I think some of these people are going to get disappointed ... | 144 |
fomc | 1,978 | In the housing area, Jim, you might mention--in case anyone missed it--that you have assumed an increase in the ceiling rates at what, midyear? | 33 |
fomc | 1,978 | At midyear an increase of about 1/2 percentage point on longer-term time deposits. | 19 |
fomc | 1,978 | So that has been assumed in terms of the funds availability for housing. Bob Mayo. | 17 |
fomc | 1,978 | Yes, following up on your last comment, Bill, I have a question for the staff. The deposit growth chart reflects what the Chairman just mentioned. If that does not take place, would you anticipate a deposit growth curve that went down to the level or below levels of '74--or have you attempted to work that out? | 66 |
fomc | 1,978 | No, I wouldn't expect it to go below the levels of '74 for two reasons. One of the reasons is simply that interest crediting now adds about 6 percent to the rate of growth and that is about 1/2 or 3/4 percent more than three or four years back. So you have some built-in interest crediting in this. And, secondly, even t... | 138 |
fomc | 1,978 | I might mention, in case you missed it, that the Federal Home Loan Bank has just reduced by 1/2 percent its liquidity requirements--I expect you all saw that--which releases about $1.7 or $1.8 billion in potential resources for housing. | 55 |
fomc | 1,978 | Would it be appropriate to ask, Mr. Chairman, if any progress has been made in discussions with the Home Loan Bank Board on the question of ceiling revisions? | 32 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, Phil and I had a general opening discussion with Home Loan Bank Board members just last week and I thought it was a very agreeable discussion. We didn't get down to specifics, but I think they recognized that they have a potential problem. And they are looking at options--at things that might be done to improve t... | 154 |
fomc | 1,978 | If any of you want 400 letters, testify before Congress that we might be raising the rate and you will get 400 letters! | 27 |
fomc | 1,978 | But I think [the discussion] was reasonably encouraging. Would you agree with that, Philip? | 19 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, it was my judgment that it was a much more constructive discussion than we expected to have. | 22 |
fomc | 1,978 | I have one other comment, if I may. | 10 |
fomc | 1,978 | Yes, Bob. | 4 |
fomc | 1,978 | The staff forecast I think is excellent, as always. I have only one area where I think our people take a little different point of view and that is on the international side. We are not nearly as pessimistic as the staff is. Whereas the staff has something like a $37 billion trade deficit projected for 1978, we get som... | 102 |
fomc | 1,978 | I wish you would. That's an area of [unintelligible]. | 15 |
fomc | 1,978 | It's a big difference, Mr. Chairman, and I think it adds up to two things. First of all, there are certain temporary factors--let's just call them disorderly factors for the moment--that I think made the figures look much worse than they really were for the first part of this year. They relate to iron and steel imports... | 326 |
fomc | 1,978 | Hope you are right. We have listed for comments: Phil Coldwell, Henry Wallich, Ernie Baughman, and David Eastburn. So we will start with Phil. | 37 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, I think the staff projection is again moderate, in line with what a few of us have been talking about for several months. I still think we have a little ways to go, Jim--maybe another 0.2 or 0.3 on the average annual rate of GNP. I think [your] pattern, too, is still a little bit flat, with not quite as m... | 372 |
fomc | 1,978 | Starting in the latter part of this year? | 9 |
fomc | 1,978 | A mini growth recession? | 5 |
fomc | 1,978 | That is exactly what I have written down. | 9 |
fomc | 1,978 | [Henry.] | 3 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, I see us moving into a pattern that is quite traditional in business cycles. My question is how genuinely this pattern reflects past developments. We are approaching a high level of employment--I would call it getting close to full employment--and prices are beginning to rise. Now, ordinarily, I would associate t... | 154 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, certainly what has influenced our recent upward adjustment in inflation, current and expected, involves largely exogenous forces--namely food prices and, secondly, partially exogenous forces of the effects on domestic prices of the depreciation of the dollar. We have not seen an explosion in wage rates nor do we ... | 250 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, I have a couple of things. First, just a factual point: It's reported that steel for new high-rise office type structures in the Southwest currently costs $900 a ton. As recently as 90 days ago, the same builder contracted for the same kind of steel for the same types of structures and was buying it for $... | 71 |
fomc | 1,978 | That is just the market--the supply and demand. | 11 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, I suspect it flows to an extent at least from what the government has done with respect to reference prices. And certainly the demand has been increasing, as has been suggested. In the projection, interest rates and the proportion of managed liabilities to earning assets in the commercial banks both are projected... | 135 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, you are quite correct that some of these ratios in managed liabilities by 1979 particularly are [projected to be] above that which we experienced in l974. At the same time, with regard to the general question and the other types of problems, there are difficulties interpreting the aggregate numbers and there may ... | 270 |
fomc | 1,978 | I might mention just one other fact, Mr. Chairman. Large savings and loan associations in the Southwest, though a small number of them to be sure, have been advertising quite widely for 6-year money at 8-1/2 percent in large amounts--$l00,000 minimum. In part, this is probably anticipating what you are suggesting here ... | 81 |
fomc | 1,978 | Dave. | 2 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I would like to pick up a little bit on the comments about prices earlier--particularly Jim's comment about the exogenous nature of the food and dollar price increases. I remember last year, roughly about this time, a number of comments were made around the table with respect to policy that we ... | 229 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, we would judge from a model result that we'd have a small impact by now--that is, one year out. According to the Board's econometric model, the System model, it really is a matter of looking ahead two or three years. So I would think the results of having overshoots in l977 probably would have a very small impact... | 251 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mark. | 2 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I feel very comfortable with the staff forecast. The numbers are almost identical to the ones we have been using. To the extent that it is wrong--and we are wrong on the price side--I'd like to comment on a couple of things that I think are relevant. There is a growing acceptance of the notion ... | 515 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you, Mark. Frank. | 7 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, a month ago I argued that we ought to keep an open mind on the outlook because the statistics were muddy. I think in the past four weeks we have gotten data that are not muddy. It is very clear that we are coming out of the slowdown with a very strong economy--stronger, I think, in the second quarter than... | 350 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you, Frank. Chuck. | 7 |
fomc | 1,978 | I have something of the same feeling that Frank does. I can't find fault with the staff projections; indeed, they have moved most things the same way I would have moved them. Unfortunately, I would have put the inflation rate up, as they did; I would have recognized that the trade deficit is going to be bigger, as they... | 1,059 |
fomc | 1,978 | I am a little disappointed. We know the problem, Chuck. | 13 |
fomc | 1,978 | I guess we had better work on that problem! | 10 |
fomc | 1,978 | Philip Jackson. | 3 |
fomc | 1,978 | I share generally the views that have been expressed by Chuck and Frank. I do think that our focus on the GNP concepts of the economy may be masking some of the factors simply because we get this rate-of-growth focus rather than some of the actual rates of current activities that are taking place. For example, we focus... | 492 |
fomc | 1,978 | I can't say thank you to that one; I appreciate it. Bones. | 15 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, we are now very close to the staff's projections. Particularly this time with the reduced real GNP growth and the projected high inflation rates, we are getting very close to what my own staff has been trying to impose on me for some months now. Both the demand-pull and the cost-push forces, we think, are... | 253 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you, Bones. Tom Williams, it's nice to have you with us. | 16 |
fomc | 1,978 | Our directors would agree with Mark Willes and Phil Jackson in that they are very concerned about inflation. They are very concerned about the large government deficit and the lack of concern of some in Washington about this deficit. Also, our staff would agree with Henry that the March 6.2 percent unemployment rate pl... | 118 |
fomc | 1,978 | I don't know about the next few months but I think that is a serious problem. In terms of looking at various sectors, I would rate the consumer area now as one that would have the most potential difficulty as we look ahead a year if economic activity slows. If you look at a repayment measure of debt burden, it is very ... | 140 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you. | 3 |
fomc | 1,978 | Paul, you have been very quiet. | 8 |
fomc | 1,978 | And at this point there is nothing left to say, so I will just make a couple of very brief comments. The exchange rate forecast caught my eye, as it did some other people's here. I didn't like it much, both because I hope the forecast for the trade balance is too pessimistic and because I have substantial uncertainty a... | 245 |
fomc | 1,978 | Paul, I would simply note that a year ago the staff projected a 3 percent appreciation in the dollar. | 22 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, I think the major burden here is that it is almost impossible to project anything very intelligently in this area. I wouldn't put any weight on any particular projection. So far as more general comments are concerned, I share the concern that has already been expressed about inflationary expectations in a sense h... | 240 |
fomc | 1,978 | To rise to the defense of the staff, you may project the exchange rates intelligently; you just don't have to do it accurately. There is an important difference. | 32 |
fomc | 1,978 | Could I just make one point? | 7 |
fomc | 1,978 | Don't be too defensive. | 5 |
fomc | 1,978 | I'll try not to be too defensive. One of the reasons why we made the exchange rate forecast we did is that it is our belief that, for the market in general, expectations about the trade balance are similar to some of the views around this table if not [more optimistic], i.e., a smaller deficit. Therefore, to the extent... | 122 |
fomc | 1,978 | I would be the last to say that it is not going to happen. Who knows? If it does happen, it would be a very serious matter and I don't think it is at all certain at this point. [CHAIRMAN MILLER]. I think some of the comments, Ted, were that if one looks short term, it seems that some factors may be distorting and [are ... | 110 |
fomc | 1,978 | Yes, sir. I can't add a great deal. We agree basically with the staff's position. We feel that average inflation for l978 will not be as high as the staff projects; however, we foresee a serious escalation in inflation as prices rise next year and the year after. I disagree, at the risk of making myself the most unpopu... | 226 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you. Let's see. We haven't heard Roger. Is there anything you would like to comment on? | 21 |
fomc | 1,978 | I'd only say, Mr. Chairman, that our staff projections come very close to those presented by your staff here at the Board. There are a couple of areas that we have taken a look at that come out a little bit differently, and one is housing. We would agree with Phil Jackson that there may be a carryover through '78 and i... | 261 |
fomc | 1,978 | Bob Black, do you have anything to say? | 10 |
fomc | 1,978 | I don't really have anything, Mr. Chairman. We are fairly close [to the staff's projection] except that we too believe, as Governor Coldwell suggested earlier, that there will be less regular increases and [perhaps] a little more inflation, but all these things have been mentioned. | 58 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, tomorrow I complete six weeks in my new assignment and in that period of time it seems to me that inflation has risen in the visibility of people as an issue. It seems that underlying everything we are saying today [inflation] is what is behind the changes in projections and a lot of the comments here. There are ... | 461 |
fomc | 1,978 | I would like to compliment the staff for the presentation this morning. I thought it was excellent; I could understand it, so obviously it was excellent! I usually come to these briefings and I don't understand them. It is nice to have it put in simple economics that I can understand. Thank you. Now, as a prelude to co... | 110 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I might first make three small statistical points of background and then present some of the various arguments that the Committee might wish to consider on whether they wish to lower, raise, or maintain the existing long-run ranges for the aggregates. As background I might first mention that ac... | 1,084 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, gentlemen, normally I would like to add my analysis but Steve has said it well. My personal reaction is that, considering all the pluses and minuses, I believe it would be prudent to maintain the current ranges at the present time. That is my own reaction to the situation. There is one aspect I would call to your... | 291 |
fomc | 1,978 | Time for discussion? | 4 |
fomc | 1,978 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, I would like to support that, Mr. Chairman. I came prepared with that view and I think Steve's analysis was very helpful. It seems to me that some of the items that Steve presented were in the area of public policy and more of them were in the area of public psychology. We are dealing, it seems to me, with this c... | 120 |
fomc | 1,978 | Paul. | 2 |
fomc | 1,978 | I would essentially support the same position, Mr. Chairman, particularly the point that David Eastburn just made. I think our priority at the moment is getting within the targets that we have instead of trying to play around with psychology in changing them. That has been the problem in the past year; in the past quar... | 190 |
fomc | 1,978 | I think intellectually one would want to see it lower but my feeling is that it is not worth the effort in terms of what we are trying to accomplish. Phil Coldwell. | 35 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, I have no real preference for movement. I came prepared to support a 4 to 6 percent range on M1 and 6 to 8-1/2 or 6-1/2 to 8-1/2 on M2 and I think those are the two principal items that we are looking at here anyway. We are playing a surface game in a sense, [in] that we are setting long-range targets and... | 138 |
fomc | 1,978 | Okay. Henry. | 4 |
fomc | 1,978 | I would be satisfied to stay with M1 as it is. I would, if possible, cut back M2 and M3 simply to accommodate to the degree of disintermediation. I don't think that means a great deal for the actual liquidity of the economy because the people who no longer hold M2 or M3 hold something else as a liquid asset. It does me... | 326 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you. Bones. | 5 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, philosophically I'd like to see us reduce [the range]. Maybe your comment that it isn't worth the effort at the moment [is right], so as an alternative I would hope that our performance does indeed take us within the ranges and that we make an earnest effort to accomplish that. [Unintelligible] suggestion... | 108 |
fomc | 1,978 | Chuck. | 2 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, I would support leaving the ranges where they are, too. But I do want to point out that the implication of that is that we will have a good deal tighter money than we previously were thinking about because if everyone agrees--and I think virtually everyone did --that the inflation rate is likely to be higher, the... | 371 |
fomc | 1,978 | Phil Jackson. | 3 |
fomc | 1,978 | I would support leaving the ranges where they are and I do share the same conclusion Chuck did about the consequences of doing so. For that reason, as we convey these to the Congress I would hope that our message would emphasize what leaving them where they are [means] in light of current and prospective economic devel... | 189 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, we have been actually using the month-end in developing these. The monthly average is an average of Wednesday numbers at the moment and I don't think it makes any substantial difference over the 12-month period for those two measures. This is not the bank credit proxy, of course. | 57 |
fomc | 1,978 | Which one would you prefer we address ourselves to when we discuss the issue at the table? | 18 |
fomc | 1,978 | I think it is better to have the monthly average just to avoid the little blips. | 18 |
fomc | 1,978 | I just want to be sure. | 7 |
fomc | 1,978 | Is 7 to 10 percent what is being proposed here? | 13 |
fomc | 1,978 | Yes, 7 to 10 is what is being proposed. | 13 |
fomc | 1,978 | It strikes me, given our most recent experience, that this again is a pretty restrictive monetary policy. In fact, it might be more restrictive than all these others put together. If we are serious about that as a goal of policy, rather than just a fallout of the other policy-- | 57 |
fomc | 1,978 | Our projection of what is consistent with the [unintelligible] at 6-1/2 percent M1. And the somewhat higher bank credit, at 7-1/2 to 10-1/2, is our projection of what would be consistent with the existing ranges. | 60 |
fomc | 1,978 | In that case, Mr. Chairman, I would think that we ought to try to make that consistent under the circumstances. It strikes me that if we are going to be serious about looking at bank credit as an object of policy, then we ought to at least, to the extent we know how, have a consistent set of numbers. | 67 |
fomc | 1,978 | Steve, how would that strike you? | 8 |
fomc | 1,978 | I would see no problem with that. | 8 |
fomc | 1,978 | We didn't report that last time around. | 8 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.