Source stringclasses 1
value | Date int64 1.98k 2.01k | Text stringlengths 2 27.1k | Token_count int64 1 5.57k |
|---|---|---|---|
fomc | 1,996 | I am sorry, but I do not have an immediate answer. I have seen estimates, but that information is not readily available to me. | 28 |
fomc | 1,996 | I do not know the answer either, and I would appreciate it if someone could get the information. It might be useful to evaluate the extent of directly held stock in the context of Governor Lindsey's discussion in which he raised a considerable issue with regard to the financial condition of the household sector. Presid... | 62 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, economic growth in the Twelfth District has been exceeding that of the nation in recent months. The western states of Arizona, Nevada, Utah, and Oregon continue to be among the fastest growing in the nation. Labor demand and the consumer sector have remained buoyant in these areas. Oregon's tax receipts g... | 443 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Boehne. | 5 |
fomc | 1,996 | The economy in the Philadelphia District was slowing during the final months of 1995, and this slower trend has carried over into 1996, aggravated by unusually bad weather. The retail sector has been soft. Holiday sales were below expectations, and January sales have been hurt by severe weather. Auto sales were fairly ... | 440 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, the Fifth District economy is still expanding although probably at a somewhat slower rate in recent weeks. I get this information from several sources. We do some surveys, such as our regular manufacturing and service sector survey, which suggests some deceleration in both of these areas as in other parts... | 1,039 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | New England grew more slowly in the second half of 1995 than in the first half, and its slowdown was more pronounced than that of the nation as a whole. Moreover, in terms of employment, the region saw a change in the types of industries experiencing either growth or at least declining trends in job losses. The region'... | 755 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. To answer Cathy's question on changes in consumer confidence, I am struck by the fact that I have a pretty good report for my District, and I am beginning to wonder if I ought to give it or not! Our District economy continues to be strong overall with only a few signs of weakness in a couple of... | 433 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, economic activity in the Seventh District continues to expand but at a moderating rate, as I mentioned at our last meeting. I sense that we are outperforming the rest of the country, with some sectors experiencing weakness and others strength. Fairly strong business activity was reported for farm and heav... | 1,288 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you. President Melzer. | 7 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thanks, Alan. I have four major points that I want to make today. The first is that the Eighth District economy continues to grow at a slow but steady pace. Our average unemployment rate stood at 4-1/2 percent in November compared with 5.6 percent nationally. Payroll employment growth in the District outpaced that in t... | 1,055 |
fomc | 1,996 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 1,996 | On our twelve-wheeler, the Eleventh District tire is not flat, at least not yet, but we do hear a strange hissing sound. [Laughter] Our directors and other contacts, as has been mentioned here before, are more pessimistic looking forward than the backward-looking numbers would suggest. I don't have an answer to Cathy's... | 1,005 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The economy of the Ninth District remains fundamentally healthy, and some parts of the region are very strong. Overall, growth has moderated and there are more crosscurrents than had been the case until recently. One area of the District economy that continues to be relatively soft is manufactu... | 722 |
fomc | 1,996 | Vice Chairman McDonough. | 6 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The anecdotal evidence in the Second District in recent weeks has been very negative, but that is probably more the mindset of the people in the District than anything else. The broader economic data have been somewhat more positive recently. In the labor markets, private payroll employment ros... | 784 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The economy of the Atlanta District is still growing at a moderate pace and maintains its advantage over the national growth rate, as best we can tell. But we, too, are seeing signs of deceleration. Nonetheless, while cyclical factors at the national level may be damping growth for our part of ... | 716 |
fomc | 1,996 | Governor Kelley. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, as you know the current Greenbook projection is quite similar to, but perhaps a little weaker than, the last several forecasts. The main new weakness is that occurring in this quarter, and that does appear likely to materialize, given what we know now. Thus, I would agree that the Greenbook's assessment o... | 416 |
fomc | 1,996 | Governor Phillips. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. There is more fog than usual in Washington and in the outlook. Some of this uncertainty is caused by the data situation. From the perspective of a rear-view mirror, the data are less reliable than usual due, of course, to delays and revisions and weather disruptions. I suspect that we may not b... | 932 |
fomc | 1,996 | Governor Yellen. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | As I outlined my thoughts on the national economy in preparation for today's meeting, I realized that I am running the risk of sounding like a broken record by reiterating themes that are completely familiar, given the remarks I have been making during the last several meetings. With respect to inflation, I have not se... | 1,408 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you. We are running a little late, and we will recess until tomorrow morning at 9:00 a.m. | 25 |
fomc | 1,996 | Dave Lindsey, would you start us off? | 9 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I will be referring to the Bluebook, starting with the table on page 11. [Statement--see Appendix.] | 31 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you. Questions for Dave? | 7 |
fomc | 1,996 | A question about velocity: What do you think the market would assume about our confidence in our forecasts of velocity if we were to raise the targets? | 29 |
fomc | 1,996 | I don't think the market's view is very different from that of the Board staff regarding the reliability of forecasts of velocity. Market participants have not been focusing on the monetary aggregates. They essentially have accepted the FOMC's analysis that in the 1990s there has been a heightened degree of uncertainty... | 156 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Actually, I think this is pretty much the same question although coming at it from a slightly different direction. What has our track record been at this point during the year, or in June, in terms of actually hitting a forecast for M2 or M3 growth? | 53 |
fomc | 1,996 | It turns out that in 1990, when the process of very slow growth of the broader aggregates began and M2 velocity started on its upward march, we were a bit slow in catching up. But subsequently, despite the uncertainty, we were not too inaccurate. I vividly remember briefing this Committee in May 1993 with a projection ... | 112 |
fomc | 1,996 | I am sorry, who publishes the figures? [Laughter] | 13 |
fomc | 1,996 | The transcript of this will be out in five years and I will be vindicated! [Laughter] | 21 |
fomc | 1,996 | But it is hard to find the actual figures to compare them to the projections. We tried. It isn't easy to do. | 25 |
fomc | 1,996 | That's right. We are revising M2 and that alters the comparison. For 1995, M2 growth and nominal GDP growth came in almost exactly where we predicted six months ago when the Committee last visited this issue, and that involved a judgmental adjustment on our part to a model forecast that was predicting much slower M2 gr... | 159 |
fomc | 1,996 | I actually was reacting to the idea that if there is a rather wide range of uncertainty around these projections, though I gather you don't think there is, we may be changing the ranges on the basis of projections that are very uncertain. It seems to me that some of your argument for Alternative II and Alternative III ... | 73 |
fomc | 1,996 | I wouldn't deny that there is a significant range of uncertainty around our forecast even if the Greenbook gets the pattern of the macroeconomy more or less correct. I wouldn't want to assert that there is not a pretty big range of uncertainty that the Committee ought to take into account. But, as we tried to argue in ... | 98 |
fomc | 1,996 | It is certainly true that David's ability and that of others to forecast, say M2, has been quite good in the last few years. But members of the staff are making the forecasts, not a model. The models themselves have been going off considerably because the velocity of M2 has risen rapidly, and since we don't know the ca... | 428 |
fomc | 1,996 | Are we talking about just this issue? | 8 |
fomc | 1,996 | No, I am sorry. We are talking about the broad question with respect to ranges for the aggregates. If you wish to bring up other issues not related to this, I suggest that you mention them but then set them aside rather than mix everything into this discussion. President Broaddus. | 58 |
fomc | 1,996 | First on M2, Mr. Chairman, we have a person on our staff named Yash Mehra who is a very good money demand analyst. He has done some work that indicates that the leftward shift in the M2 demand function may be ending in the sense that his equation predicted the actual M2 growth rate in 1995 pretty well. Looking forward,... | 331 |
fomc | 1,996 | I would appreciate it if we could wait. There will be other Committee members who will want to raise this issue. So, it may be wise to set that aside unless you believe it is relevant to this particular policy decision. | 45 |
fomc | 1,996 | I see it as an operational substitute for an M2 range. | 13 |
fomc | 1,996 | We are legally obligated to make these projections. The drift of our previous discussions on this issue would lead to the conclusion that we want to do something different, but the law has to be changed in order for that to happen. Let us conclude our statutorily required discussion before we move to the broader issues... | 62 |
fomc | 1,996 | Fine. I prefer Alternative I. | 7 |
fomc | 1,996 | I was going to say "Professor" Parry. [Laughter] | 15 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you! Mr. Chairman, I would support Alternative I because I think the considerations you described that motivated our July discussion continue to apply today. It seems to me that we can't forecast velocity reliably. Therefore, I think it would not be advisable to move the ranges annually based on current forecasts... | 101 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | In his presentation, Dave Lindsey mentioned the issue of the consistency of the central tendency of the members' GDP projections for 1996 with the alternative ranges for the monetary aggregates and whether we should move away from Alternative I. But even if we were using the aggregates as an indicator variable of the t... | 332 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | I prefer Alternative I. I agree with the staff and those members who say it is too early to know where velocity is or what its growth rate will be. I also think that if we change the ranges now, we will have things backwards. If we are changing them because we think the growth rates will be much higher rather than beca... | 118 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Boehne. | 5 |
fomc | 1,996 | I prefer Alternative I. I think the arguments that were valid last July are still valid. We really don't have that much confidence in the relationship between money and the economy. Because of that, we are largely dealing with symbolism here. It is important that we use that symbolism to underscore our long-run commitm... | 88 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Melzer. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Alan, I favor Alternative I as well. I have felt strongly for a long time that we really ought to set these ranges on the basis of longer-term relationships and that it would send a bad signal to move them at this point. Let me quickly make a couple of other observations in this regard. First, even though money has not... | 233 |
fomc | 1,996 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 1,996 | I agree with all that has been said so far, which is to let sleeping dogs lie. We would send the wrong signal about our long-run resolve on inflation if we tampered with the ranges now. The projections are too uncertain to be used as a basis for changing the ranges in any event. | 60 |
fomc | 1,996 | Governor Yellen. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | I am afraid I am the odd one out here. I don't think the monetary aggregates should, or do, play an important role in policy. I certainly don't think the Humphrey-Hawkins testimony should focus on the aggregates. I believe we should continue, as we did last July, to downplay the relevance of these ranges to policy. If ... | 353 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | I can understand the intellectual attraction of either Alternative II or Alternative III. But I believe the reason the Humphrey-Hawkins legislation requires us to project the M's is that at the time that legislation was enacted, the ranges were expected to be indicators of our intended policy and the future course of t... | 199 |
fomc | 1,996 | Vice Chairman. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, the idea that these ranges are mainly a communications device is what guides me. Since the Humphrey-Hawkins report and your testimony no doubt will point out that we do not find the monetary aggregates to be a particularly useful policy tool, adopting Alternative I, II, or III would not result in a strong... | 185 |
fomc | 1,996 | Governor Lindsey. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | In his briefing, Dave Lindsey indicated that the M2 range in Alternative I would be the target range that we would have once we reached price stability, assuming that M2 velocity returned to its traditional trend. We don't have either of those conditions. At least we can't be sure about velocity, and we certainly have ... | 288 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, I favor Alternative I. When we adopted this alternative on a tentative basis back in July, we indicated that the M2 range was going to serve as a benchmark for the rate of M2 growth that would be expected under conditions of reasonable price stability and historical velocity behavior. So, if we repeat tha... | 192 |
fomc | 1,996 | Governor Kelley. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, I am quite attracted to the arguments that Governors Yellen and Lindsey make and, frankly, it troubles me a little to reject those and go for Alternative I. Nevertheless, I am choosing Alternative I for the simple reason that to change the ranges would involve a certain fine-tuning of the dials that we do... | 103 |
fomc | 1,996 | Governor Phillips. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | I will go with Alternative I and associate myself with the comments of President Moskow and Governor Kelley. I will say, however, that I am uncomfortable about not having the staff's expected growth of M2 encompassed by the Alternative I range. As I recall, the staff forecast in July did at least have monetary growth a... | 131 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | I prefer Alternative I as well. I would echo the arguments that have already been made about the danger of sending the wrong signal, particularly the comments of the Vice Chairman about the danger of being misunderstood in the context of our recent easing and the prospect that we may need to ease further in the period ... | 68 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | I think most of the relevant points have been made. It seems to me that we can't have it both ways. The issue is what we want to communicate. Do we want to set up ranges consistent with the baseline Greenbook forecast or do we want to set up ranges consistent with our long-run, low inflation objective? I prefer the lat... | 135 |
fomc | 1,996 | The consensus clearly is for Alternative I and I assume that in making that choice, you are accepting 1 to 5 percent on M2, 2 to 6 percent on M3, and 3 to 7 percent on debt. I request that the Secretary call the roll. | 58 |
fomc | 1,996 | The paragraph is on page 23 of the Bluebook: The first sentence is the standard one on the Committee's objectives. "The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. In furtherance of these objectives, the Committee at th... | 213 |
fomc | 1,996 | Okay, let's now go on to the broader question that a number of you have raised. President Broaddus, would you like to start us on this? | 32 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Although retaining the M2 target range of 1 to 5 percent gives a signal of our longer-term objectives, my own view is that we need something more than that to communicate fully to the public and the markets. I think it would be very desirable to supplement our monetary targets with some kind of... | 700 |
fomc | 1,996 | Can I ask you why you believe that the Mack Bill is not going anywhere? | 16 |
fomc | 1,996 | I am not on top of the latest developments, but in general it seems unlikely to me that the bill is going to pass. From what I understand, there is some chance that it won't pass at all in this Congress. I may be misjudging that. | 53 |
fomc | 1,996 | I think that's much too premature. The issue has not been joined, and there is a large number of cosponsors on the Republican side. What that all means is hard to say. You may well be right. | 43 |
fomc | 1,996 | Even if I am wrong on that, Mr. Chairman, I don't think that would change my view about the desirability of doing something like this. | 30 |
fomc | 1,996 | I think it does in part change the view of where we ought to be moving because I am not certain it is to our advantage to do something in advance of what that bill will do. In other words, that may not help the particular form of the discussions that we are involved in. But I think we will find out within the next two ... | 114 |
fomc | 1,996 | I am attracted to President Broaddus's argument. I think that communication of intent by the central bank does aid in raising its credibility, though I question whether we really have a credibility problem at present. Does anybody really believe the stuff that Don Kohn put in the Bluebook? [Laughter] Moving from 3 perc... | 147 |
fomc | 1,996 | Governor Kelley. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | Al, can a layman ask for some edification here? I think you had in there-- | 20 |
fomc | 1,996 | Al, you are about to be put down! [Laughter] | 14 |
fomc | 1,996 | I sense that! | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | I think part of your proposal included a guideline for 1996. | 14 |
fomc | 1,996 | I was thinking of a two-year period, 1996-97, as a time frame, but the time frame is not a particular issue for me. | 32 |
fomc | 1,996 | My question is, if monetary policy exerts its impact with a lag, whether we are currently in a position to do anything to affect 1996 beyond events that are already in train or policies that have already been implemented. | 45 |
fomc | 1,996 | A longer time frame would probably be more appropriate given the lags, Mike, and that's why I said 1996-1997. Again, I am not talking about trying to control the inflation rate in any mechanical way; we can't do that. I am simply saying that we would make a statement that we would evaluate all of our short-term policy ... | 117 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.