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value | Date int64 1.98k 2.01k | Text stringlengths 2 27.1k | Token_count int64 1 5.57k |
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fomc | 1,997 | Yes, that's right. | 5 |
fomc | 1,997 | At least she said "no brainer" rather than "no brains." | 15 |
fomc | 1,997 | Well, that's my interpretation of what she actually said. | 11 |
fomc | 1,997 | It does strike me that we have to go back to the drawing board on this. My maximum likelihood estimate is that it would take us 4 hours, 52 minutes, and .4 seconds to get this issue resolved today. We do not have that much time. | 54 |
fomc | 1,997 | To change the wording? | 5 |
fomc | 1,997 | Yes. What we ought to do is the following: We should try to negotiate this issue between meetings. It is too difficult to negotiate directly here. We have to figure out another way to do it. The reason people interpret this directive differently is that its constructive ambiguity has worked. That is the problem. We are... | 103 |
fomc | 1,997 | I am super more than willing to support it. MS. RIVLIN and | 16 |
fomc | 1,997 | Me, too. | 4 |
fomc | 1,997 | I have some question about how the wording on symmetry and asymmetry is handled. However, our practice when we set a target for the funds rate of describing that in terms of reserve conditions seems to me to be somewhere between embarrassing and amusing. I think the time has come to make at least that change in the dir... | 64 |
fomc | 1,997 | I think it could take us many hours of discussion to decide whether or not we ought to include a reference to symmetry in the directive. But I don't understand why it would take us four hours to make the words clear. We are merely saying it in English. | 52 |
fomc | 1,997 | Why don't we do the following. This should not be a vote of just the Committee members because some are on the Committee and some are not currently, but the concern is general. Why don't we go around the room and get a quick statement from everyone as to whether or not they accept the recommendation as is, or with very... | 91 |
fomc | 1,997 | I like the recommended wording. I think it is simpler and clearer. | 14 |
fomc | 1,997 | I would retain the traditional wording until we explain to the public how and why we are changing it; the explanation should be released in advance of the actual publication of the reworded directive. | 38 |
fomc | 1,997 | Mr. Chairman, it might be useful to ask the members to differentiate between the first sentence and the second sentence. Some may favor changing one and not the other. | 33 |
fomc | 1,997 | Yes, I thought about that. We ought not change one and not the other one until we are sure that one is acceptable and the other is not. Doing this in two steps is not a good idea. I'm sorry, go ahead President Minehan. | 51 |
fomc | 1,997 | I totally agree with Governor Kelley. | 7 |
fomc | 1,997 | I pass. | 3 |
fomc | 1,997 | I'm not sure any change gets us much. I worry a little about reinforcing this idea that we are in a more rigid interest rate targeting regime at the very time we are thinking about the possibility of some alternative regime, though I know that is a decision for the longer-term future. Secondly, I worry a little about w... | 115 |
fomc | 1,997 | You said it. President Stem. | 7 |
fomc | 1,997 | I think I agree with Tom Melzer's reservations. | 11 |
fomc | 1,997 | Tom is saying it is very complex. | 8 |
fomc | 1,997 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,997 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 1,997 | I would very much like to clear up the difficult wording, but I would suggest taking the preamble portion that applies to the second sentence and have it apply to both sentences with the alternate wording. | 39 |
fomc | 1,997 | President Parry. | 4 |
fomc | 1,997 | I like the changes. When we change the federal funds rate, we now announce that following the meeting. So, including the rate in the directive does not seem to me to be much of a change. I also like the clarity of the alternative wording suggested for symmetry and asymmetry. The only reservation I would have is that I ... | 75 |
fomc | 1,997 | I would like to see clearer language. We might want to negotiate whether this is it, but I think we definitely could use clearer language. | 28 |
fomc | 1,997 | I think the suggested rewording raises enough issues that it's not worth the trouble it might bring us if we introduced it at this time. I would leave it alone for now. | 36 |
fomc | 1,997 | President Boehne. | 5 |
fomc | 1,997 | In recent years we have moved in the direction of transparency and clarity in terms of making public what we do. We debated for years, for example, whether we ought to announce our decisions promptly. I think we are much better off because we now announce them. We were concerned about what would happen if we released t... | 173 |
fomc | 1,997 | I do not think this language is ready for prime time. | 12 |
fomc | 1,997 | Mr. Chairman, I like the transparency aspect of the proposal very much. However, in the current environment where we do not have a very specific long-term goal, I worry about the point that Tom Melzer made. This rewording is going to reinforce the focus on the funds rate. One other point that Tom made intrigued me, tho... | 125 |
fomc | 1,997 | Governor Meyer. | 3 |
fomc | 1,997 | I view this as an improvement, an increase in explicitness and transparency. I don't see any reason why only professional Fed watchers should understand the directive. I think we have to bring it into conformity with what we say in our announcements. I also object a little to the idea that the new wording is a problem ... | 104 |
fomc | 1,997 | Governor Phillips. | 3 |
fomc | 1,997 | I am a bit more comfortable with the proposed first sentence because, as Larry Meyer said, that is what we do. That is what we have been focusing on, and I think we should update that directive sentence. I must say with respect to the symmetry sentence that I worry about substituting one archaic expression for another.... | 132 |
fomc | 1,997 | Vice Chair. | 3 |
fomc | 1,997 | I think the proposed first sentence merely says in the directive what we already say in the press release, so I cannot see any reason why one would not wish to adopt that rewording. In the current second sentence, I find the "woulds" and "mights" to be embarrassing nonsense. I think that wording is the ultimate in obfu... | 109 |
fomc | 1,997 | During the intermeeting period, why don't we try to find a mechanism to communicate our views on this question and bring perhaps two or three alternatives to the next meeting, with some sense of where everyone stands. In other words, let us not just throw the issue on the table. We could then have a discussion in which... | 308 |
fomc | 1,997 | Are there any other questions for Don? If not, let me start off and go to the directive specifically. As you may remember, I indicated a hope at our last meeting that we would have a credible basis for tightening today on the grounds that the balance of risks that I saw at that time, which are not materially different ... | 2,568 |
fomc | 1,997 | I strongly support your recommendation. You amused me yesterday by saying I was too agnostic. You sound rather agnostic yourself at the moment about knowing what is actually happening. | 34 |
fomc | 1,997 | No, I said you are too agnostic, but so am I. [Laughter] | 19 |
fomc | 1,997 | Fair enough. I think in view of the uncertainty and the fact that there clearly is not enormous pressure to do something, doing nothing is the wise course. But the risks are, as you say, still on the high side. | 46 |
fomc | 1,997 | Vice Chairman. | 3 |
fomc | 1,997 | Mr. Chairman, I agree that there is a great deal of uncertainty and that the risks are on the high side, which certainly argues for asymmetry no matter how confusing the existing wording of the directive may be. The right decision now is to watch and wait but to watch quite carefully. So, I believe "B" asymmetric is th... | 71 |
fomc | 1,997 | Governor Meyer. | 3 |
fomc | 1,997 | Mr. Chairman, I agree with your policy recommendation for today. I want to spend a few minutes talking about policy in a somewhat longer-range perspective. I think our semiannual two-day pre-Humphrey-Hawkins meetings give us the opportunity to take that broader perspective on monetary policy. To take advantage of that,... | 727 |
fomc | 1,997 | President Parry. | 4 |
fomc | 1,997 | Mr. Chairman, although a clear implication of both our forecast and that of the Greenbook is that we will have to tighten policy soon, I am willing to support Bluebook alternative B and asymmetric language. | 41 |
fomc | 1,997 | President Boehne. | 5 |
fomc | 1,997 | Our basic dilemma is that the real world is operating differently from what our preconceived notions would suggest. We do not know if this divergence between our models and actual experience is temporary or permanent. At a minimum, this situation suggests caution and a wait-and-see attitude. At this point, I think "B" ... | 72 |
fomc | 1,997 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 1,997 | I also support no change, alternative B. I have a reasonably strong preference for an asymmetrical directive on the basis of either of two interpretations people might put on it. First, although I am not sure we have fully corrected for our past tendency to overestimate inflation, I certainly don't know any more than a... | 220 |
fomc | 1,997 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 1,997 | Mr. Chairman, I can accept your proposal today with no difficulty. However, I do want to make a couple of comments. I will preface them by observing that I understand the complexity of the issue that was raised in our discussion over the last couple of days and illustrated by the models in the Bluebook. But I also must... | 283 |
fomc | 1,997 | President Stem. | 3 |
fomc | 1,997 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I too support your recommendation essentially because I agree with you that we do not have a credible basis for tightening at this point. Let me comment on your description of the situation in which we find ourselves. I agree with that description, but I am not sure that it is as much a departu... | 342 |
fomc | 1,997 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 1,997 | Mr. Chairman, I am in agreement with your proposal because I think, as President Stern mentioned, that we probably do need a greater element of credibility in taking action than we have right now. But I do want to sound a couple of notes of caution and to pick up on a couple of things that Bill McDonough and Ed Boehne ... | 745 |
fomc | 1,997 | Governor Phillips. | 3 |
fomc | 1,997 | I agree with "B" asymmetric. Since inflation and pipeline inflation look pretty benign, it seems to me that there is time to see whether the economy will slow to a more sustainable growth rate. With regard to symmetry, since there is more likelihood that we are going to tighten than to ease and since we adopted an asym... | 182 |
fomc | 1,997 | President Melzer. | 4 |
fomc | 1,997 | Thanks, Alan. I would favor alternative C. Basically, my rationale would be that we should be acting to protect against the prospect of a future rise in inflation, if not to lock in the recent windfall in terms of the decline in inflation we have actually witnessed. Having said that, I recognize the implausibility of a... | 301 |
fomc | 1,997 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 1,997 | Thank you. I agree with your recommendation, Mr. Chairman, that at this point no action is the best course mainly because any rationale we might have for taking action would not be well understood and would not be credible. And therein lies the challenge of moving ahead from here. How do we make any rationale that we h... | 379 |
fomc | 1,997 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 1,997 | Mr. Chairman, I think the economy is operating beyond its potential and that we will have to increase interest rates eventually. But I also agree that we do not see any early evidence, certainly no credible evidence, of wage and price acceleration at this point. So, I agree that we should wait for now. Gary Stern state... | 230 |
fomc | 1,997 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 1,997 | I agree with your recommendation. | 6 |
fomc | 1,997 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 1,997 | Mr. Chairman, we have had a lot of favorable reports over the period since the last meeting, and like everybody else I am encouraged by them. At the same time, as Cathy Minehan emphasized very appropriately, we need to keep our perspective. The level of economic activity is still very high. Labor markets, if anything, ... | 402 |
fomc | 1,997 | Governor Kelley. | 3 |
fomc | 1,997 | Mr. Chairman, healthy humility is a virtue in the eyes of the Lord, and I think you have given voice to a certain level of humility that we all feel in the light of our lack of understanding. Happily and fortunately, the conditions that we do not understand are favorable, and so far they are holding. I think your recom... | 101 |
fomc | 1,997 | Please read the directive with the old language. [Laughter] | 13 |
fomc | 1,997 | I will be reading from page 30 in the Bluebook, starting toward the bottom: "In the implementation of policy for the immediate future, the Committee seeks to maintain the existing degree of pressure on reserve positions. In the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic ... | 115 |
fomc | 1,997 | Call the roll. | 4 |
fomc | 1,997 | Chairman Greenspan Yes Vice Chairman McDonough Yes President Broaddus Yes President Guynn Yes Governor Kelley Yes Governor Meyer Yes President Moskow Yes President Parry Yes Governor Phillips Yes Governor Rivlin Yes | 41 |
fomc | 1,997 | Our next meeting is on August 19. | 9 |
fomc | 1,997 | I would like to welcome three newcomers to these proceedings--Jane Little from Boston, George Kahn from Kansas City, and Steve Cecchetti from New York. This is their first meeting and as I have indicated previously to individuals who have come and gone, they will not learn very much economics but large amounts of chaos... | 98 |
fomc | 1,997 | Move approval. | 3 |
fomc | 1,997 | Second. | 2 |
fomc | 1,997 | Without objection. I turn the next item over to the Vice Chair. | 14 |
fomc | 1,997 | Mr. Chairman, I would like to move the election of Steve Cechetti as Associate Economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to serve until the election of his successor at the first meeting of the Committee after December 31, 1997. I very much hope that his successor will be himself. | 62 |
fomc | 1,997 | Would someone like to second that nomination? | 8 |
fomc | 1,997 | Second. | 2 |
fomc | 1,997 | Without objection. Let us move on to Mr. Fisher. Peter. | 14 |
fomc | 1,997 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I will be referring to the several pages of colored charts distributed this morning. 1 In reviewing recent market developments, I will try to describe what I see as the causes of the recent, abrupt repricing and volatility of equity, bond, and currency values. First, since your last meeting, th... | 1,636 |
fomc | 1,997 | Peter, may I interrupt you for a moment? Would you remind everybody what a 3-by-6, a 6-by-9, and a 9-by-12 are? | 38 |
fomc | 1,997 | It is not a question of "reminding!" What are they? [Laughter] Let me put it this way: I have never heard that term except as used by you in this room. | 40 |
fomc | 1,997 | All right. As I mentioned at the outset, [laughter] a 9-by-12 is the 3-month rate traded 9 months forward. So, 9 plus 3 is 12-- | 43 |
fomc | 1,997 | Now, stop! [Laughter] The arithmetic is easy, but why don't you use English? This is market jargon whose use is restricted to a very few acres surrounding your office in New York. | 40 |
fomc | 1,997 | I think the new technology is spreading it out all the way to New Jersey and Westchester! The 3-by-6 is the 3-month rate as it trades 3 months forward. | 39 |
fomc | 1,997 | Why didn't you say so? | 6 |
fomc | 1,997 | Where were we? [Laughter] As I mentioned at the outset, I do not think it is helpful to see exchange rate movements generally, or the dollar's movements in particular, as an exogenous "cause" of bond and equity market volatility. Rather, I think that exchange markets have been responding to the same shift in outlook th... | 1,097 |
fomc | 1,997 | How serious is the most recent pressure on the Hong Kong dollar? | 13 |
fomc | 1,997 | It is certainly worthy of note. I do not have an exact read this morning, but the forward exchange rates have backed up quite a bit in the last 10 days. I am told anecdotally that the pressure is from prudent asset managers who are hedging risks, not speculators poised for an attack. I don't know how much value I can p... | 77 |
fomc | 1,997 | I talked with Hong Kong Monetary Authority officials last night, and they did not seem particularly concerned. Their mode of operation is one that in some sense tends to draw attention, because in essence they meet a demand for Hong Kong dollars when it arises, but they automatically tighten their money markets. That's... | 162 |
fomc | 1,997 | Is that true of the other Southeast Asian currencies as well? Are they going to let their currencies float? | 21 |
fomc | 1,997 | I don't think they know what they are going to do, quite frankly. In fairness, they face a difficult problem. President Minehan and I were at a conference last week, and a very bright woman from Indonesia asked what advice we had for them now that they had floated their currency. Mike Mussa of the International Monetar... | 266 |
fomc | 1,997 | President Minehan. | 4 |
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