Source stringclasses 1
value | Date int64 1.98k 2.01k | Text stringlengths 2 27.1k | Token_count int64 1 5.57k |
|---|---|---|---|
fomc | 1,997 | Mr. Chairman, I think that "B" is the right call and that it is a clearer choice than the intermeeting adjustment decision. I agree with you that, absent the international events, this might be a rather good opportunity for a 25 basis point move that could do very little harm in present circumstances and probably some ... | 438 |
fomc | 1,997 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 1,997 | In thinking about the current situation, I ask myself, where are the risks to the forecast? Last month, I was more negative than the staff on the Asian situation, but my sense now is that the Greenbook has it about right, although there certainly is a lot of uncertainty about potential developments in Asia. It is possi... | 468 |
fomc | 1,997 | President Parry. | 4 |
fomc | 1,997 | Mr. Chairman, in view of the situation in Asia, I certainly would recommend against a change in rates at the present time. So, I would support alternative B. I have a slight preference at this point for asymmetry because I do not think the distribution of likely outcomes with regard to inflation is unbiased. In my view... | 108 |
fomc | 1,997 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 1,997 | My policy preference today, Mr. Chairman, takes account of the new Greenbook projection, which assumes no action on our part and has the growth of employment barely getting down to a sustainable trend over the projection horizon. Given that forecast and for the reasons I outlined earlier today, I still think there is a... | 416 |
fomc | 1,997 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 1,997 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I would support your recommendation on the "B" alternative, and I certainly would not disagree with you on symmetry. I will tell you that I, like others, remain concerned about the tight labor markets and the possible effects they may have on inflation, but I do not conclude that monetary polic... | 254 |
fomc | 1,997 | Governor Phillips. | 3 |
fomc | 1,997 | I support your recommendation of "B" symmetric. There is no pressure to act now. It seems to me that there is time to see how things play out. Given the shape of the yield curve, the recent inflation experience, and the inflation outlook, I have to question the direction and timing of the next move. This seems to me to... | 81 |
fomc | 1,997 | President Boehne. | 5 |
fomc | 1,997 | I support your recommendation for "B." I think the case for staying where we are is overwhelming today. The issue of symmetry is a more marginal decision, and I don't have strong feelings about it one way or the other. In my view, the major case for removing the asymmetry is that symmetry is probably a more accurate de... | 87 |
fomc | 1,997 | Not to mention transparent. | 5 |
fomc | 1,997 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 1,997 | Mr. Chairman, the economy is quite strong currently, but I believe the situation in Asia is likely to be a key restraining factor going forward. I agree that no one knows for sure exactly how severe the Asian problems will be and how they will play out. In his comments, Ted Truman did not rule out the possibility of a ... | 179 |
fomc | 1,997 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 1,997 | Mr. Chairman, I support the recommendation for no change this morning. After trying to sort out the crosscurrents we have discussed in the last three and a half hours, I still have the sense that the Asian shock represents something of a substitute for a modest policy move. I, too, could support a symmetric directive, ... | 119 |
fomc | 1,997 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 1,997 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support your recommendation both in terms of alternative B and a symmetric directive. I do so principally because I believe there is more than enough uncertainty to go around. We do not know how severe the Asian problem is going to be. We do not know how far it is going to spread. We really d... | 111 |
fomc | 1,997 | Governor Rivlin. | 4 |
fomc | 1,997 | I, too, support the "B" symmetric. I don't think there is any case for moving rates down. Were it not for the Asian problem, one could make a case for moving rates up, but I'm not sure I would be totally persuaded by that case, given the CPI and the productivity information. But we do have the Asian problem and we do n... | 99 |
fomc | 1,997 | Governor Ferguson. | 3 |
fomc | 1,997 | I, too, concur with your "B" symmetric proposal. I agree particularly with what President Stern has said. We are in an era of significant uncertainty, and I think it is important to signal to the markets that as a responsible central bank we are prepared to be flexible in our effort to address whatever challenges may e... | 90 |
fomc | 1,997 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 1,997 | After our action to increase the funds rate last March, we had a debate at the May meeting concerning the desirability of a further increase--whether we should drop the other shoe. In an environment of decelerating real growth as evidenced by an assortment of measures, related expectations of a fairly soft second quart... | 286 |
fomc | 1,997 | Governor Kelley. | 3 |
fomc | 1,997 | Mr. Chairman, as I said earlier, I think this is a remarkable time in the sense that we face very substantial risks, both up and down. This leads me to support strongly your proposal for a "B" symmetric directive. But there is another interesting reason for symmetry this time. It relates to some asymmetries that I see ... | 269 |
fomc | 1,997 | Governor Meyer. | 3 |
fomc | 1,997 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Given the expected effects and uncertainty related to the Asian turmoil, I agree that we should hold policy unchanged today. Because the risks are better balanced, I also support a move to a symmetric directive. It is, as President Boehne suggested, likely to be a much better description of our... | 117 |
fomc | 1,997 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 1,997 | I supported a symmetric directive before Governor Kelley talked about the relative timing of the various risks, and I support such a directive even more after hearing his comments. It is doubtful that we will have to ease in the near future, but it certainly would be embarrassing to ease with an asymmetric directive to... | 67 |
fomc | 1,997 | Governor Gramlich. | 4 |
fomc | 1,997 | I am for "B" with symmetry. I say that both from an international standpoint and a domestic standpoint. The one thing that gives me pause is that if we wait to see evidence of inflation, given that there are lags in monetary policy, it could be too late. I think that is a cost that we need to keep in mind, but I still ... | 101 |
fomc | 1,997 | First Vice President Rives, do you want to add anything to this discussion? | 16 |
fomc | 1,997 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Real GDP growth through the first three quarters is above most estimates of potential growth. Fourth-quarter estimates and forecasts are sharply higher than they were earlier in the year. Personal spending and credit growth are expected to end the year on a high note. The broad monetary aggrega... | 156 |
fomc | 1,997 | There seems to be a very substantial majority for "B" and a modest majority for symmetry. Would you read the directive in that context? | 28 |
fomc | 1,997 | The directive is on page 14 of the Bluebook: "In the implementation of policy for the immediate future, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with maintaining the federal funds rate at an average of around 5-1/2 percent. In the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability an... | 128 |
fomc | 1,997 | Would you call the roll on that directive? | 9 |
fomc | 1,997 | Chairman Greenspan Yes Vice Chairman McDonough Yes President Broaddus No Governor Ferguson Yes Governor Gramlich Yes President Guynn Yes Governor Kelley Yes Governor Meyer Yes President Moskow Yes President Parry Yes Governor Phillips Yes Governor Rivlin Yes | 48 |
fomc | 1,997 | Thank you. Our next meeting is-- | 8 |
fomc | 1,997 | February 3rd and 4th. | 9 |
fomc | 1,997 | February 3rd and 4th. The lunch to bid farewell to our colleague from St. Louis is scheduled to begin in about three minutes. | 30 |
fomc | 1,998 | Good afternoon, everyone. I would like to begin as we always do at the first meeting of the year by turning the floor over to the Board's senior member, Governor Rivlin. | 37 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you. This is the election you all have been eagerly waiting for! The floor is open for nominations for Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee. Is there a nomination? [Laughter] | 39 |
fomc | 1,998 | I nominate Alan Greenspan. | 6 |
fomc | 1,998 | Alan Greenspan. That is a good idea. | 10 |
fomc | 1,998 | I will second that. | 5 |
fomc | 1,998 | Are there any further nominations? All in favor say "aye." SEVERAL. "Aye." | 21 |
fomc | 1,998 | Now the floor is open for nominations for the Vice Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee. Are there any nominations? | 23 |
fomc | 1,998 | After long and careful consideration, I nominate President McDonough. | 13 |
fomc | 1,998 | With even longer consideration, I second the nomination. | 10 |
fomc | 1,998 | Are there any further nominations? All in favor signal "aye." SEVERAL. "Aye." | 21 |
fomc | 1,998 | The deed is done. | 5 |
fomc | 1,998 | We now turn to Mr. Bernard to give us a list of the officers who are on the slate. | 21 |
fomc | 1,998 | Secretary and Economist, Donald Kohn Deputy Secretary, Normand Bernard Assistant Secretaries, Joseph Coyne and Gary Gillum General Counsel, Virgil Mattingly Deputy General Counsel, Thomas Baxter Economists, Michael Prell and Edwin Truman Associate Economists from the Board: David Lindsey; Larry Promisel; Thomas Simpson... | 131 |
fomc | 1,998 | If there are no objections to that slate, I will assume that it has been appropriately voted upon. The next item on the agenda is the selection of a Federal Reserve Bank to execute transactions of the System Open Market Account. Would somebody like to make a suggestion in that regard? | 55 |
fomc | 1,998 | Mr. Chairman, I would like to recommend the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to assume that responsibility. | 21 |
fomc | 1,998 | Without objection, I will assume that it has been appropriately voted upon. The incumbent Manager of the System Open Market Account is Peter Fisher. Would somebody wish to renominate him? | 35 |
fomc | 1,998 | I renominate Peter Fisher. | 6 |
fomc | 1,998 | If there are any other nominations, Peter may object, but that is probably irrelevant! I assume there are none. Would somebody like to second that nomination? | 31 |
fomc | 1,998 | I second it. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Without objection. Now that he is officially ensconced, we can go back to work. Peter, you are on. | 25 |
fomc | 1,998 | All right, Mr. Chairman. I sent a memorandum to the Committee suggesting two modest changes to the Authorization for Domestic Open Market Operations. I think that is the next item. One is a permanent increase in the intermeeting leeway from $8 billion to $12 billion. The other is to remove from the Authorization the re... | 96 |
fomc | 1,998 | If there are no questions, would somebody like to move amend the Authorization as proposed? | 17 |
fomc | 1,998 | Move approval of the Authorization with the modifications proposed in Mr. Fisher's memo. | 16 |
fomc | 1,998 | Second. | 2 |
fomc | 1,998 | Without objection. Mr. Truman. | 7 |
fomc | 1,998 | I sent a memorandum to the Committee containing the current versions of the Foreign Currency Authorization, the Foreign Currency Directive, and the Procedural Instructions. No amendments are recommended. The memorandum includes a review of the warehousing authority, also with no proposed amendment of the current arrang... | 64 |
fomc | 1,998 | Questions for Ted? | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Move approval, Mr. Chairman. | 7 |
fomc | 1,998 | Is there a second? | 5 |
fomc | 1,998 | Second. | 2 |
fomc | 1,998 | Without objection. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | I do want to dissent on that. | 8 |
fomc | 1,998 | It is on record. | 5 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | Any other dissents? [Secretary's note: No other dissents were heard.] May I have a motion to approve the minutes? | 27 |
fomc | 1,998 | Move approval. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | Without objection. Peter, you are on again for your report on Desk operations. | 16 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I will be referring to the three pages of color charts that were placed in front of you before the meeting started. 1/ The first page updates the charts I have shown before on current and forward three-month deposit rates. In this case, I am presenting a full 13 months of data so you can see re... | 2,693 |
fomc | 1,998 | You raised an issue that I frankly have not thought about in a long time when you referred to fog-induced float. I remember years ago that this was a relatively usual occurrence. That is, weather-related transportation difficulties caused float to fluctuate sharply. What has been the experience in recent years? | 57 |
fomc | 1,998 | In the last several years, I do not recall that many instances of sharp variations in float. | 19 |
fomc | 1,998 | Is it technology that is stabilizing float? What is happening? | 13 |
fomc | 1,998 | Sandy Krieger says the weather has been better! [Laughter] Sharp, unanticipated fluctuations in float now tend to happen only with extreme weather. The blizzards we had a couple years ago that closed the city of New York created some extraordinary float around the time of the holidays. The improvement we have seen may ... | 136 |
fomc | 1,998 | Governor Rivlin says it is El Nino. [Laughter] | 14 |
fomc | 1,998 | The improvement is due to a lot of effort on the part of many people all around the Federal Reserve System. They have been dedicated to reducing float from a level that used to run in the range of $2 to $3 billion a day and is now below $100 million on most days. | 59 |
fomc | 1,998 | In other words, we have float down too far to float! | 13 |
fomc | 1,998 | Right! First of all, we have made an enormous number of changes in the way we transport checks and other payment instruments and in the timeliness with which we do it. We have been very careful about the time frames in which we both give credit and transport items from one place to another. If you compare what we do cu... | 95 |
fomc | 1,998 | Don't smile, Peter, the next thing that will come is a slip of paper that says your salary has been reduced. | 24 |
fomc | 1,998 | That is deflation! [Laughter] | 9 |
fomc | 1,998 | Peter, one; the Chairman, zero. [Laughter] Any further questions? | 17 |
fomc | 1,998 | Peter, we took a fairly sizable loss on our foreign exchange holdings last year. I know it was unrealized and I know that in some years we make a profit on these holdings. As I understand it, the unrealized loss or profit does affect the amount that we return to the Treasury in any particular year. This may be a dumb q... | 86 |
fomc | 1,998 | One could consider hedging it, but I think the policy inference of how we choose to hedge and how much we hedge would be rather awkward. | 29 |
fomc | 1,998 | The act of hedging would be an act of intervention. | 12 |
fomc | 1,998 | We don't want to do that! [Laughter] | 11 |
fomc | 1,998 | Once you hold the foreign exchange, you intervene when you hedge it. It is as if you had reversed the intervention that occurred when you purchased the foreign exchange to begin with. Hedging is an alternative to intervention, and it has been considered on occasion. A similar question is whether we could do all the int... | 84 |
fomc | 1,998 | Not yet! If I may, President Broaddus, you mentioned unrealized losses or profits. We pass our net profits on continuously to the Treasury. They go through the P&L system and on to the Treasury throughout the year. | 48 |
fomc | 1,998 | I think that is a very important point. Although our unrealized profits or losses get announced once in the summary report for the year and therefore that is a big number, I think the policy that we have followed for some time now is to forward our net earnings to the Treasury every week, if I am not mistaken. | 64 |
fomc | 1,998 | That is a new policy? | 6 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.