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fomc | 1,998 | Further questions for Mike? If not, who would like to start the roundtable? President Boehne. | 22 |
fomc | 1,998 | The regional economy around Philadelphia continues to operate at a fairly high level with mostly modest growth. There are few signs of upward price pressures. Among the anecdotal tidbits that I have picked up around the District in recent weeks is that one in four jobs is likely to go unfilled this summer in District s... | 586 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 1,998 | I don't have a lot to say about the District economy today, Mr. Chairman. There hasn't been much change in our regional picture since the last meeting, and overall it doesn't differ that much from the national picture. With that in mind, I thought it might be more useful to relay a few comments that made to me recently... | 1,258 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Parry. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Mr. Chairman, economic activity has remained strong in the Twelfth District in recent months. We have seen particularly strong job growth in Arizona and Utah where the rate of expansion has reached 4 percent. Job growth in Washington State is running above 3 percent, and the local unemployment rate is falling rapidly. ... | 695 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Mr. Chairman, the Seventh District economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with few signs of slowing growth and increasingly frequent reports of upward pressures on labor compensation. Our robust housing markets have strengthened retail sales and also have boosted activity in steel, gypsum, cement, and other construct... | 832 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The New England economy continues to show remarkable strength. With employment growth only slightly below the nation's and an unemployment rate that remains lower than elsewhere, the District economy remains strong and vibrant. As evidence of this, regional manufacturing jobs recently increased... | 862 |
fomc | 1,998 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 1,998 | Cathy ended with smoking guns. The main thing that has been going on in Texas for the last week and a half is second-hand smoke from forest fires in Mexico and central America. It has put a heavy haze over all our major cities. The Eleventh District economy remains strong, but we believe our strong rate of growth has s... | 1,007 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. On balance, the pace of expansion in our Southeast region appears to have accelerated somewhat since our last meeting. Retail sales that were soft in March picked up throughout the region in April. Manufacturing, which was exhibiting some slowing seven weeks ago, has come back strongly as measu... | 1,025 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Stem. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The preponderance of the evidence that has become available since our last meeting is generally consistent with the path that the District economy has been on and also with the path that the national economy is currently on. That is, much of our regional economy remains sound and healthy. Labor... | 676 |
fomc | 1,998 | Governor Phillips. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. As has already been mentioned, the U.S. economy is extremely strong, and the strength is all the more impressive in view of the drag that is being exerted by developments in Asia and by the weakness in the agricultural sector that Gary Stern just mentioned. Central to this assessment, of course... | 789 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you. In addition to our usual discussions with directors and advisory council members, we also did a series of what I think of as listening sessions in smaller cities around the District. Their general tone was captured well by one banker in one small city who said that people have more money than sense. | 59 |
fomc | 1,998 | More dollars than cents! [Laughter] | 9 |
fomc | 1,998 | said that every day people ask him to find them a deal so they can put their money to work. But for balance, who says that everybody already has as much money as they need so that the bank cannot find any more borrowers because there are too many lenders. He constantly argues that we should lower interest rates so the ... | 1,383 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Mr. Chairman, the Kansas City District economy continues to grow at a solid pace, without a lot of change since our March meeting. Manufacturing remains quite healthy. Our survey of manufacturing for April found moderate increases in production, shipments, and new orders. Retail sales remain robust. Real estate sales a... | 523 |
fomc | 1,998 | Governor Gramlich. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I think that we are approaching crunch time, and there are several arguments for tightening. There are several arguments for sitting tight as well. Since by and large the tightening arguments already have been made around the table, let me give some of the arguments on the other side of the que... | 789 |
fomc | 1,998 | Vice Chair. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The Second District's economy continued to expand at a sturdy pace in the first quarter, but there have been some signs of slowing in the manufacturing sector in recent weeks. Job growth in New York and New Jersey slowed a bit from a very brisk fourth quarter, with job losses in manufacturing a... | 1,035 |
fomc | 1,998 | Governor Ferguson. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. In the intermeeting period, I became more certain that the sense of upside risks that many of us expressed at the last meeting was continuing to hold true, and I have detected a bit of that sense today in our discussion around the table. However, I must admit that the economy is showing some si... | 1,317 |
fomc | 1,998 | Governor Rivlin. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | I am substantially where Roger Ferguson is, and I'm not sure I can put the case any better; he presented it very well. We have a very difficult problem. We have had an extremely strong economy, which continues to be strong. It has been an extraordinary performance. Every time we meet we have a few more anecdotes about ... | 569 |
fomc | 1,998 | Governor Kelley. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. This Committee is always confronted with complexities and conundrums. Over time they tend to be largely matters of degree and perhaps relative significance at a given point in time, but today it seems hard in many cases to know how to get the sign right. A few key examples, starting with Asia: ... | 553 |
fomc | 1,998 | Governor Meyer. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I will be referring to a couple of charts that I am having passed around. 2 At the last meeting, many members of this Committee expressed concern that inflation risks might be increasing in light of the prevailing tightness in labor markets and the momentum in domestic demand. The question we c... | 1,798 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Poole. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | As with everybody who asks business leaders, bankers, and others about labor market pressures, we see such pressures in the Eighth District. In addition to staff input on this issue, I have been traveling around the District, and I participated in three sessions in different cities. In these sessions I was particularly... | 524 |
fomc | 1,998 | I assume we have coffee out there even though it may be a little cold. [Laughter] | 20 |
fomc | 1,998 | In view of the hour and the fact that many of the members and staff have crowded agendas for this afternoon, it has been proposed that we postpone discussion of the agenda item on disclosure policy until the next meeting. | 42 |
fomc | 1,998 | I think that is a fairly sensible idea. There is no point in rushing it, and there is absolutely no urgency that we resolve this issue quickly. Can we put it on the calendar for the June 30-July 1 meeting? | 48 |
fomc | 1,998 | We might be able to start that meeting a little earlier. | 12 |
fomc | 1,998 | Unless there is any objection, consider it done. Now, back to monetary policy. Mr. Kohn. | 22 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. When the Committee last met it was concerned about the risk of an upward trend to underlying inflation in the future, and in some respects that possibility seems in fact to have acquired more weight over the intermeeting period. In particular, the economy looks as if it will be putting more str... | 1,756 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you. That was an excellent and balanced presentation of the problems that we confront. Questions for Don? If not, I will start. It is apparent that our discussion has been one of the more interesting roundtables that we have had for a while in our effort to assess the underlying crosscurrents in the economy and t... | 3,961 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I agree completely with both the recommendation that you have made and the arguments that you have advanced in favor of it. | 30 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Poole. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | I want to start with the puzzle that I talked about at the last meeting. The markets and business forecasters are all looking at the same data that we look at. Yet, they seem to be assigning essentially zero probability to the possibility of a Fed tightening. That concerns me because I think markets are not paying enou... | 636 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Mr. Chairman, at our last meeting I expressed concern that, even in the absence of clear indications that inflation was rising, both the strength of the domestic economy and the frothiness in financial markets required some policy tightening to reduce the risk that even more tightening might be needed later. Nothing ha... | 643 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 1,998 | Mr. Chairman, if it were my choice, I would still prefer to make a small move today for many of the reasons that Cathy Minehan and Bill Poole have adduced here. To go beyond what they said, there are a lot of folks in this room and outside of the System who are making the point that we have time to wait before we move.... | 165 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Boehne. | 5 |
fomc | 1,998 | I think this is one of those decisions where we have come to the end of the line as far as whether hard analysis will give us the answer; it will not. This is a period where we must use our judgment. Our judgment over the past year or more has been to be patient. It is tempting to overdo something that has worked in th... | 137 |
fomc | 1,998 | Governor Rivlin. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Mr. Chairman, I concur with both parts of your recommendation. I do not think we ought to move today. My reasons relate to Asia, but not in terms of the impact of our move on Asia. Rather, it is because I expect the deteriorating situation in Asia to have more of an impact on our economy than we seem to be anticipating... | 169 |
fomc | 1,998 | Governor Kelley. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | I concur with your recommendation, Mr. Chairman. | 10 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | I come out much where you did, Mr. Chairman. I talked earlier about what might be called the tension between the strength in aggregate demand and accommodative financial conditions and what clearly has been rapid growth in aggregate supply. The latter is premised, I think, on favorable productivity conditions, and the ... | 206 |
fomc | 1,998 | Governor Gramlich. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Mr. Chairman, I support both parts of your recommendation for the reasons that you and others have given. Let me make two points on the other side. One is, as I mentioned last time, that in focusing on a funds rate target we may make the funds rate too rigid, and we should be mindful of that. The second can be summariz... | 167 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Parry. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Mr. Chairman, I think there are good reasons that one could cite to justify raising rates today. However, for goods prices at least, a number of factors are offsetting labor market pressures. In addition, I think the recent declines that we have seen in inflation expectations have raised the real funds rate to what app... | 110 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Mr. Chairman, I concur with your recommendation and would like to make a couple of comments. I am very mindful of the Asian situation, though I would not use international considerations as a primary motivation for not changing our policy. I think the stability of the U.S. economy needs to be our foremost consideration... | 185 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Mr. Chairman, my view is that the sky probably is not falling yet. Certainly, there is some probability that we can slip by without a tightening of policy, but the odds appear to be growing on the other side. With all the comments I heard in the first go-around, I think I identify most vividly with Bill Poole's asserti... | 235 |
fomc | 1,998 | Governor Meyer. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Labor markets are very tight, and a significant part of the recent inflation performance owes to the temporary effects of favorable supply shocks. Inflation will almost certainly be on a rising trend going forward, but the published rise will be partially offset by the effect of technical revis... | 687 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation, but I do think it is only a matter of time before we will have to tighten policy. We all talked about the strength in the economy and the fact that inflation pressures have been muted. I hope you are right about productivity growth being larger than that reported. Perhaps th... | 203 |
fomc | 1,998 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 1,998 | I support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman. We have unexpectedly low inflation in large part because a strong supply side has accommodated unexpectedly rapid real growth. I'm not sure that locking in the low inflation now requires weakening the economy to slow down real growth. It may or it may not. I guess this uncer... | 97 |
fomc | 1,998 | Governor Phillips. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you. I think this is as close a call as I have had to make since coming to the Fed. | 23 |
fomc | 1,998 | Maybe you should not leave! | 6 |
fomc | 1,998 | Yes, maybe that's right! I am going to end up concurring on "B" asymmetric. The reason is mostly because inflation appears to be quite well contained. Growth is extraordinarily strong, but in view of the inflation situation, I think there is time to see how Asia plays out. That will take time, so I will be watching you... | 75 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you. I agree that asset markets like the stock market should not be an objective of policy, but I also do not think they should be a constraint on doing what we otherwise think is the right thing. I never saw the need for signaling or the desirability of trying to condition the markets to anything we do. As far a... | 263 |
fomc | 1,998 | Governor Ferguson. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | Mr. Chairman, I concur with your recommendation. I agree with others around the table who have said that our obligation is primarily to our own citizens. However, I also recognize that there will be spillover effects if conditions continue to get worse in Asia, and I am concerned about that. In my view, the monetary an... | 225 |
fomc | 1,998 | The preponderance is for "B" asymmetric. Could you read the operational paragraph? | 18 |
fomc | 1,998 | Yes, Mr. Chairman. I will be reading from page 14 of the Bluebook where the operational paragraph is shown: "In the implementation of policy for the immediate future, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with maintaining the federal funds rate at an average of around 5-1/2 percent. In the contex... | 142 |
fomc | 1,998 | Call the roll on that recommendation. | 7 |
fomc | 1,998 | Yes sir. Chairman Greenspan Yes Vice Chairman McDonough Yes Governor Ferguson Yes Governor Gramlich Yes President Hoenig Yes President Jordan No Governor Kelley Yes Governor Meyer Yes President Minehan Yes Governor Phillips Yes President Poole No Governor Rivlin Yes That is a 10 to 2 vote. | 58 |
fomc | 1,998 | Our next meeting is on June 30-July 1. | 13 |
fomc | 1,998 | Since the members are all here, I propose that we move up the starting time of the meeting to 1:25 p.m. Hearing no objection, I consider the meeting to be in order. The first item on the agenda is approval of the minutes for the May 19 meeting. Does somebody wish to move them? SEVERAL. So move. | 72 |
fomc | 1,998 | Without exception, they are approved. The Board's public information officer traditionally has served as an assistant secretary of the Federal Open Market Committee. You all know Lynn Fox. I assume that all of us presume she is qualified, and therefore I would request that somebody nominate her. | 54 |
fomc | 1,998 | I so nominate her. | 5 |
fomc | 1,998 | I second the nomination. | 5 |
fomc | 1,998 | If there is anybody opposed, I don't want to hear it. [Laughter] Nominations are closed, and congratulations, Lynn. Peter Fisher. | 30 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I will be referring to three pages of colored charts. 1/ They have a peach cover and are somewhere in front of you, I hope. The first page shows the 3-month Euro-deposit rates including the current, 3-month forward, and 9-month forward rates since July 1 of last year. This chart therefore cover... | 1,699 |
fomc | 1,998 | Questions for Peter? President McTeer. | 9 |
fomc | 1,998 | I gather you are saying that you object to movements up and down around the target for the funds rate and you would like those movements to be tighter. Why exactly is that? | 35 |
fomc | 1,998 | I don't want the market to think that if we allow federal funds to be very soft at the beginning of the period, we will inevitably let the market be tight at the end of the period. That is not my objective. I'm afraid that the pattern we have seen tends to induce a certain amount of instability if market participants c... | 122 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 1,998 | I don't have a question, Mr. Chairman, but I would like to comment about some of the recent foreign exchange market developments. I will be brief. Specifically, I see a risk in resisting the depreciation of the yen, if that begins to occur again. Obviously, the countries in East Asia face an extraordinary, challenging,... | 703 |
fomc | 1,998 | Let me just say that I do not think anyone at the Treasury would seriously disagree with the way you framed the issue. There was a great reluctance at the Treasury to intervene, and the decision was touch-and-go for a considerable period of time. I would say that the chances of repeating such intervention verge on the ... | 177 |
fomc | 1,998 | While our attention has been focused mostly on Southeast Asia, the situation in Russia is deteriorating and seems to be extremely vulnerable. Could you or someone comment on that? Do we have any relationship with Russia, formal or informal, that would get us involved in their problem? | 54 |
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