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fomc | 1,998 | President Poole. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | I want to go back to the monetary aggregates. My friend from Texas referred to the currency component of the aggregates, although I thought Texans always concentrated on bigger things than currency. Let's talk about savings deposits for a minute, which are three times the size of currency. When we look at the detail on... | 344 |
fomc | 1,998 | Yes, there is no question about it. Everything you have described is quite accurate. For example, look at the chart of M2 velocity versus its opportunity cost--in honor of Bill Dewald I will mention a piece he has published using opportunity cost defined as the bond rate less the own rate on M2; Board staff tend to loo... | 488 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Poole, may I try to move from the big picture to the very small picture? Looking at the flows in the last few weeks--and recognizing your point about somebody is paying someone and that makes it a little difficult to track this sensibly--it does look to me in the data that I have, though I think we may have m... | 192 |
fomc | 1,998 | But we do have to be careful about the magnitudes. Money market funds have decelerated in October to an annual rate of 31.5 percent. | 32 |
fomc | 1,998 | I am looking at weekly numbers where growth has been inching up by comparison. | 16 |
fomc | 1,998 | Yes, I understand. | 5 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Just a quick question on Brazil. I found this alternative scenario in the Greenbook very helpful. I took note of the U.S. GDP projection of minus 0.4 in 1999 and 2000, but you were careful to mention that this is by no means the worst case concerning a potential meltdown in Brazil. I was wondering if you could give us ... | 90 |
fomc | 1,998 | While you're at it, the timing as well! [Laughter] | 14 |
fomc | 1,998 | All derived from by the model, of course. | 10 |
fomc | 1,998 | I think the next three weeks are crucial for at least the initial success of the Brazilian program. The time between now and the signing of the letter of intent, which will be on one of the first days in December, is the first hurdle that has to be gotten over. People even less cynical than I might think that chances a... | 555 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | Further questions? If not, let's break for coffee and come back in 10 minutes. | 18 |
fomc | 1,998 | Who would like to start off the Committee's discussion? President Poole. | 15 |
fomc | 1,998 | I didn't realize I was going to be that close to the top of the list! [Laughter] Let me talk a bit about the Eighth District first. I think our situation is largely a microcosm of the national picture. I would like to comment particularly on a new source of information that I am in the process of developing. I have thi... | 511 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 1,998 | Mr. Chairman, overall activity slowed in our District in the third quarter as it did elsewhere, but my sense is that it has strengthened on balance over the period since our last meeting. Consumer spending in October in particular was considerably stronger than anticipated. Automobile sales and outlays for other durabl... | 839 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Since our last meeting and particularly since our mid-October actions, a degree of calmness seems to have replaced at least some of the unsettled conditions of late September. However, our contacts remain more nervous and uncertain about the future than they were in mid-summer. In many respects... | 914 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Parry. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Mr. Chairman, the Twelfth District economy has expanded at a solid pace in recent months, although the disparity across states has increased and the pace of growth has moderated from earlier this year. Employment growth in our fastest growing states, Arizona, Nevada, and Washington, is averaging between 3 and 5 percent... | 675 |
fomc | 1,998 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 1,998 | The Eleventh District economy is showing increasing signs of slower growth especially in the goods-producing sectors including energy, petrochemicals, semiconductors, and now commercial construction as well; the latter had been quite robust until recently. Commercial construction is being held back by financing conside... | 377 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The New England economy continues to perform quite well, but growth is slowing and uncertainty seems to occupy a larger proportion of anecdotal conversations. Nonetheless, at least for some areas of New England, notably Greater Boston, some slowing could be welcome if it increases commercial va... | 1,371 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Signs of moderation or at least a leveling off in the rate of growth have begun to emerge in our District also. While some of that can be traced to international developments, perhaps more reflects a pause or a respite in a maturing expansion. People clearly are being more cautious in their spe... | 1,050 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. As is usually the case, conditions in our District are partly like those in the Eighth District but especially like those in the Seventh District with regard to motor vehicles and so on. One big difference that I had failed to note, until a director pointed it out to me a couple of Saturdays ag... | 1,438 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. As far as the Ninth District economy is concerned, there has been no appreciable change in recent months. Labor markets remain very tight. If anything, they have tightened further because we are getting the normal increase in seasonal part-time demand for workers. Consumer spending has been str... | 373 |
fomc | 1,998 | Governor Rivlin. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | I think the evidence is accumulating that the real U.S. economy is run by a bunch of cheerful little elves [laughter] who do not like forecasters. Every so often they get together and say, "Okay, guys, if we work real hard, maybe we can surprise them again." But don't knock the elves; they've been doing quite a good jo... | 648 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Boehne. | 5 |
fomc | 1,998 | Business conditions in the Philadelphia region have been steady overall, but there is a continuing weakness in manufacturing. Looking ahead, business contacts expect some slight improvement in economic activity going into next year, but there is a cautious tone to this forecast. In the interest of moving the meeting al... | 255 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Let me say a few things about the Tenth District. The regional economy is still growing moderately. There are some signs of slowing in the data and in some of the anecdotal reports from business contacts, but the degree to which growth is slowing is not at all apparent. Employment growth contin... | 577 |
fomc | 1,998 | Vice Chair. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The Second District economy is slowing. The manufacturing sector in northern New Jersey and western New York is participating in the general slowing of manufacturing nationally and the growth in the service sector is not sufficient to make up for it. The housing area is also somewhat weaker. Co... | 433 |
fomc | 1,998 | Governor Ferguson. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. As we have already heard, there are significant and reasonable scenarios on both sides of this discussion. On the one hand, we can believe that the most recent strength in the real economy will abate, but just slightly, and that the economy that has surprised us on the upside time and again wil... | 800 |
fomc | 1,998 | Governor Gramlich. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. While the most extreme manifestations of the credit crunch have abated, risk spreads are still high, and the real federal funds rate is still high also. I think the period of the credit crunch is not entirely behind us. I like Ed Boehne's metaphor on that: It's probably a little too soon to go ... | 704 |
fomc | 1,998 | Governor Meyer. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Let me start off by focusing on what I think has changed and what has remained the same in the outlook since the last meeting and particularly since the intermeeting move. First, the second half looks stronger, with growth at or above trend. This reflects both the surprise in third-quarter GDP ... | 774 |
fomc | 1,998 | Governor Kelley. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I will bat cleanup here. The fundamental worldview of hawks and doves is always evolving, but I do think that both of those birds are alive and well. To oversimplify, a hawk's view of policy today might well be that, with the U.S. economy strong and the world's financial structure shaky, our po... | 814 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you very much. We now can move on to David Lindsey. | 14 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The Committees's choice today would seem to boil down to standing pat or easing by another 25 basis points. The Committee's last two easing actions were of a preemptive nature, taken to ward off undesirable economic weakness prospectively, as opposed to being based on softer economic data alrea... | 1,605 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you. Questions for David? If not, let me get started. This is a more difficult call than that at the last meeting. There is very little question that there has been considerable easing in a number of the areas where we are concerned. The one area where things have eased regrettably more than I would have liked is... | 2,165 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I agree fully and rather enthusiastically with your recommendation. One might wonder why those of us who have talked about year-end pressures would find symmetry appropriate. The reason I do is that if we have severe year-end pressures and have to react, the need would be so obvious that there ... | 92 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 1,998 | Mr. Chairman, I agree with you that this is a tough call but let me just get the other point of view on the table. As I see it after listening to all of this, there are two principal arguments for easing policy today. One is the downside risks in the economy, the possibility that the actual outcome will be weaker than ... | 349 |
fomc | 1,998 | Governor Ferguson. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | Mr. Chairman, I support both halves of your recommendation. I believe that we have achieved much of our goals from the two earlier policy easings. Credit market conditions have improved but are probably not normal. Just to follow up on what President Broaddus had to say, some may ask why we should not wait until Decemb... | 249 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | As I noted in my earlier comments, after a difficult balancing process in thinking about this, I came to this meeting clearly in favor of waiting to see what happens for the rest of this quarter and considering a possible move in December. I have listened very carefully to all of the arguments. I do believe that we fac... | 505 |
fomc | 1,998 | Governor Meyer. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. It seems to me that we have been playing catch-up to a discrete change in the outlook. The question today is whether we have caught up, and if not, whether we should complete the likely further move sooner rather than later. It is clear from the discussion around the table today that it is a cl... | 193 |
fomc | 1,998 | Governor Gramlich. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation of both the 25 basis point cut and the move to a symmetric directive. I don't have much to add to the discussion, but I would like to emphasize the point that it is important for us to stay ahead of the game, and I think this does it. | 62 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Boehne. | 5 |
fomc | 1,998 | I support your recommendation. In the interest of time, I associate myself with the remarks of Governor Ferguson. | 21 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Mr. Chairman, as I mentioned in my comments, I think the risks clearly are on the downside. I agree with others that this is a close call. Coming into the meeting I agonized over this, but I came to the conclusion that we are either going to move now or in December. It is difficult to imagine that real growth in 1999 i... | 198 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Parry. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Mr. Chairman, I would prefer to leave the funds rate unchanged at the present time for a couple of reasons. First, despite the forecast to the contrary, the economy continued to show some strength in the third quarter, and the few available monthly data that we have for the current quarter indicate solid growth. Second... | 157 |
fomc | 1,998 | Governor Rivlin. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Mr. Chairman, I support both parts of your recommendation. In the interest of lunch, I will not elaborate. | 23 |
fomc | 1,998 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 1,998 | Me, too! [Laughter] | 8 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Poole. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Mr. Chairman, I will support your recommendation, but with considerable reluctance. I think this is another example where immediate disclosure of our decision on symmetry would be very useful to us in terms of providing a signal to the markets. I fear that the markets will interpret this adjustment as another in a stri... | 286 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Stem. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | Mr. Chairman, I have a mild preference for alternative B for two reasons. First, I consider the case for alternative A far from overwhelming. Secondly, I think there is something to be said at this stage for patience, not necessarily for patience's sake but because the next meeting is only five weeks away and because w... | 82 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | For the reasons that several people have stated, I think it would be better to wait. | 18 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Mr. Chairman, although I understand your arguments, I too would be most comfortable with no policy change today. Respecting the clock, I will not repeat the arguments that Presidents Broaddus and Minehan made. I want to underscore the point that President Poole made, wishing that we had had our discussion about an earl... | 84 |
fomc | 1,998 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Mr. Chairman, for reasons that others have cited, my preference would be to wait. I think President Poole said it best, that we could be pouring gasoline on this economy. I have concerns that a bubble economy syndrome may be building. I believe it was in place before the more recent events, and I think it may again com... | 200 |
fomc | 1,998 | Governor Kelley. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | Mr. Chairman, I unequivocally support your recommendation, but I must say that I have a lot of sympathy with the views of those who would prefer to maintain a steady policy. | 37 |
fomc | 1,998 | Okay, I think we have a majority for "A" symmetric, 25 basis points. | 19 |
fomc | 1,998 | I have a question, Mr. Chairman, regarding the final sentence. | 14 |
fomc | 1,998 | David Lindsey, we are still using the old directive. Do we still want to use the word "moderation"? | 23 |
fomc | 1,998 | "Moderate" instead of "some moderation"? | 10 |
fomc | 1,998 | No, I would stick with the language we have been using, "some moderation." That is the staff forecast for coming months. | 26 |
fomc | 1,998 | Less immoderate? [Laughter] | 9 |
fomc | 1,998 | The directive language is: "In the implementation of policy for the immediate future, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with decreasing the federal funds rate to an average of around 4-3/4 percent. In the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable econo... | 120 |
fomc | 1,998 | Call the roll. | 4 |
fomc | 1,998 | Chairman Greenspan Yes Vice Chairman McDonough Yes Governor Ferguson Yes Governor Gramlich Yes President Hoenig Yes President Jordan No Governor Kelley Yes Governor Meyer Yes President Minehan Yes President Poole Yes Governor Rivlin Yes | 43 |
fomc | 1,998 | I put together some words just in case we needed a press release. I tried to suggest that we have gone as far as we are going to go. Let me just read it to you quickly. "Although conditions in financial markets have settled down materially since mid-October, unusual strains remain. With the 75 basis point decline in th... | 139 |
fomc | 1,998 | A housekeeping item: We are releasing the minutes of the November meeting tomorrow, I believe. | 18 |
fomc | 1,998 | Tomorrow at 2:00 p.m., yes. | 11 |
fomc | 1,998 | They are being released earlier than is our usual practice partly because of Christmas and partly because of coordination with the other central banks on the swap issue that we have discussed previously. Would somebody like to move the minutes of the November 17 meeting? | 48 |
fomc | 1,998 | So move. | 3 |
fomc | 1,998 | Without objection. Peter. | 5 |
fomc | 1,998 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I will be referring to the four pages of colored charts you should find in front of you. 1/ Beginning on the first page with the deposit rates, you can see by the red lines in the top panel that the U.S. forward rates are little changed since your last meeting. But it is worth noting that both ... | 2,145 |
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