Source stringclasses 1
value | Date int64 1.98k 2.01k | Text stringlengths 2 27.1k | Token_count int64 1 5.57k |
|---|---|---|---|
fomc | 1,999 | I have one question on a different subject. On your Chart 4 on financial fragility, when we measure debt levels against either the value of household financial assets or household net worth or we look at corporate debt relative to measures that incorporate the value of the stock market, are we kidding ourselves to some... | 107 |
fomc | 1,999 | I think there is much to be said for that point, and that is why I focused on the ratios I have here. I focused in these Survey of Consumer Finance runs on proportions of payments to income, thinking that that represents people's ongoing cash flows. As I noted, for shareholders that may include some realized capital ga... | 97 |
fomc | 1,999 | But hasn't corporate debt as a percentage of GDP gotten fairly sizable these days? | 15 |
fomc | 1,999 | As a percent of GDP, sure. In the recent period, corporate debt has been rising relatively rapidly. Again, it's a question of what balance sheet ratios one wants to look at. Many firms have a good deal of cash right now, so I don't think the corporate balance sheet picture looks particularly troublesome. And I don't th... | 80 |
fomc | 1,999 | That certainly has not happened. | 6 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Poole. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | On the Y2K issue, I don't think there is any potentially important event since I have been an economist about which we have less professional basis for speculating. [Laughter] I really don't. It seems to me that the role for us here is to ensure that the things we say try to minimize the impact of this event. The kind ... | 121 |
fomc | 1,999 | Go for it, Bill! | 6 |
fomc | 1,999 | That is what I think we could offer as economists. As for trying to speculate about things on which we have no professional knowledge, I just don't know what to say about them. | 36 |
fomc | 1,999 | Further questions or comments? | 5 |
fomc | 1,999 | Karen, on your chart 12 entitled "U.S. Current Account to GDP Ratio" what assumptions do you have for your baseline? How did you get the baseline? | 34 |
fomc | 1,999 | The baseline starts with the Greenbook forecast and the initial extension that is sort of implicit in the Bluebook. | 22 |
fomc | 1,999 | In the Bluebook, okay. | 7 |
fomc | 1,999 | The baseline brings growth in activity abroad and in the United States back to potential and then holds it at potential. That is of critical importance to this particular model because the minute we decide what that growth rate is going to be and multiply it times elasticities, we've answered a lot of the questions abo... | 241 |
fomc | 1,999 | Refresh my memory, what is the import elasticity used in the baseline? | 14 |
fomc | 1,999 | For the United States it is approximately 2. | 10 |
fomc | 1,999 | Thank you. | 3 |
fomc | 1,999 | I had not seen the Administration forecast shown here. Is this the growth forecast in the recent budget estimates that just came out in the newspapers that added something like a trillion dollars to the surplus over a 10-year period? Given the size of their addition to the surplus, their estimate of growth is very, ver... | 86 |
fomc | 1,999 | That's what I was suggesting. These are the numbers from the Mid-session Review that was published yesterday. They have characterized it as being in line with the Blue Chip forecast and conservative. | 36 |
fomc | 1,999 | In point of fact it is quite a bit below the Blue Chip. | 14 |
fomc | 1,999 | I don't know what the longer-term numbers they might have from the Blue Chip forecast look like. But I must say that they have tended to err on the low side, I think publicly and purposely in their process, which makes some sense if they are trying to be cautious about counting revenues. On the other hand, it may skew ... | 94 |
fomc | 1,999 | They were on the low side in February, too, you know. | 14 |
fomc | 1,999 | Yes, they've tended to be very, very low. | 11 |
fomc | 1,999 | One has to be a little careful about translating that growth forecast into the surplus numbers because the so-called technical adjustments are overwhelmingly important. It is quite possible--I don't know if this is true, I'm just saying it's a possibility--that their GDP forecast can come in low and they overwhelm it b... | 78 |
fomc | 1,999 | In fact, what little insight we have would suggest that their surplus numbers look on the low side relative to ours in part because they put in higher expenditure numbers than seem to be in train at this point, as opposed to it being simply the difference in our economic assumptions. | 54 |
fomc | 1,999 | But they are making very significant projections into the future. | 11 |
fomc | 1,999 | Sure. Fortunately, we have not gotten into 15-year budget forecasting yet. | 16 |
fomc | 1,999 | I hope you don't have to bite your tongue! [Laughter] President Stern. | 17 |
fomc | 1,999 | Karen, I would like to go back to the baseline forecast on the bottom of Chart 12 that Tom Hoenig mentioned. As I understand it, in those baseline numbers you have the dollar depreciating mildly in real terms. If I understood Peter's litany of things that might come back to haunt us--having to do especially with the eu... | 138 |
fomc | 1,999 | Well, the model that is embedded in these two charts was put together by the International Finance Division two years ago. And it came to somewhat less fearsome conclusions because the dollar is two years' worth of appreciation lower now and we have not had two years of full-blown U.S. deficits piling up and so forth. ... | 138 |
fomc | 1,999 | No, I understand that. That's fine. | 9 |
fomc | 1,999 | I'm only flagging the problem that is out there, which is that to the extent Japan's economy turns down, there is some possibility that markets may react negatively once the dust is all settled and what is really going on is clear. And if Japan continues to drag its feet about some of the more important policy adjustme... | 84 |
fomc | 1,999 | If I could just clarify my comments, in the short run I am more worried about a rapid yen appreciation such as the one we had in 1997-98--that kind of episode that they're currently bottling up. That's not a forecast of where it will all come out in the wash once the Japanese economy settles down. But it's the oscillat... | 142 |
fomc | 1,999 | Any further questions? If not, why don't we take a short break for coffee. | 17 |
fomc | 1,999 | Would somebody like to begin the round table discussion? President Parry. | 14 |
fomc | 1,999 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The Twelfth District economy has expanded at a solid pace in recent months, with growth accelerating from earlier in the year. District payrolls increased at an average annual rate of 31/4 percent during April and May, as rapid growth in some states more than offset a slight slowing in others. ... | 727 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The Kansas City District's economy remains quite solid, as I reported last time. Retail sales are well above year-ago levels. Real estate sales and construction activity remain quite healthy. Manufacturing activity actually shows some further signs of improving, following an earlier period of w... | 619 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Business conditions in the Seventh District remain quite good. Light motor vehicle sales in May matched their 12-year high reached last December, and industry contacts suggest that June sales will exceed the strong year-to-date sales pace of 16.4 million units. Net orders for medium and heavy-d... | 918 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The New England economy remains strong, with tight labor markets reportedly constraining business growth, and strong residential and commercial real estate markets, particularly in the Boston metropolitan area. In the words of one of the Bank's directors, Boston is "absolutely booming," though ... | 1,292 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 1,999 | For the sake of variety, let me reverse the usual order of my regional comments and tell you that not everything is great in our District. We have two problem sectors: agriculture and textiles. Agricultural and farm prices remain low for the most part, as does farm income. That situation has been exacerbated most recen... | 843 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. As is usually the case, conditions in our region have changed only at the margin between meetings. Retail sales remain quite healthy. A number of retailers are actually telling us that they expect the third quarter to be as good as or even better than the second quarter. As I've noted before, t... | 947 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 1,999 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The District economy continues to perform very well. Indicative of this, the unemployment rate in the Twin Cities metropolitan area is now 1.6 percent. Actually, it has been at that level for several months, so I don't believe it's an aberration. Estimates of the District unemployment rate are ... | 284 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Boehne. | 5 |
fomc | 1,999 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The economy in the Philadelphia region continues to grow steadily, with tight labor markets and low inflation. The outlook is for more of the same. Residential construction is strong, with prices rising especially for upscale housing. Nonresidential construction is brisk but not booming. Manufa... | 311 |
fomc | 1,999 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 1,999 | The pace of economic growth in the Eleventh District has slowed somewhat in the last few months. Slower activity has been concentrated in three areas: construction, energy, and exports, particularly exports to Mexico. Concerns about overbuilding have surfaced recently, and construction activity of all types, both resid... | 1,164 |
fomc | 1,999 | Vice Chair. | 3 |
fomc | 1,999 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The Second District's economy remains strong, though growth has clearly slowed from its brisk first-quarter pace. There are no indications of broad-based price pressures. Employment in the District grew at a 11/2 percent annual rate in April and May, matching the first- quarter pace but down fr... | 964 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Poole. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | Mr. Chairman, it's obvious that everyone around the table is "chafing at the bit" to discuss policy, and I'm going to do my part to behave in a disciplined fashion here by just discussing the outlook. In the Eighth District the story is very simple; it's the same old story. We're seeing exactly the same kinds of things... | 486 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 1,999 | Thank you. Several meetings with bankers in sixteen of the western and northwestern counties of Ohio two weeks ago revealed somewhat of a paradox in that area in terms of a very strong regional economy but simultaneously a very vulnerable economy. It's an area where manufacturing often runs double the national average ... | 246 |
fomc | 1,999 | We have heard that, too! | 7 |
fomc | 1,999 | They said that their business customers continue to experience difficulty hiring, especially for entry-level positions. The bankers said they are often paying 18-year old teller trainees $11 to $12 an hour. Then they can't hold the inexperienced people long enough to take advantage of their productivity after the perio... | 2,002 |
fomc | 1,999 | Governor Kelley. | 3 |
fomc | 1,999 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. When the Committee made the third of its three cuts last fall, which was the final one that brought the federal funds rate to the level we have today, it was a close, difficult call. After a good deal of soul-searching, that action was taken largely--and please excuse the use of this old war ho... | 501 |
fomc | 1,999 | Governor Ferguson. | 3 |
fomc | 1,999 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I think the obvious question we've all been addressing or attempting to address in our own ways is: What has changed since the last meeting? In some sense I think not much has changed since then. The incoming data continue to point to vigorous growth, which may well be above trend and therefore... | 909 |
fomc | 1,999 | Try to top that, Governor Meyer! | 8 |
fomc | 1,999 | That will be difficult! I read the incoming data on demand and production as generally consistent with a slowdown to about trend growth in the second quarter but not at all definitive on whether we are in the process of a more sustained slowdown from the 4 percent rate of growth experienced over the last three years. O... | 798 |
fomc | 1,999 | Governor Gramlich. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. We're being increasingly admonished to fight inflation and not real growth. I wish it were that simple. Everybody loves growth. It improves living standards and a consonant growth in overall liquidity keeps inflation low. But even though growth is desirable, a nation can have too much of a good... | 859 |
fomc | 1,999 | We will now adjourn until 9:00 a.m. tomorrow morning. Before we do, let me just remind you that the forecasts that you've submitted to Mike Prell are subject to revision, as you know. He would appreciate having any changes in your forecasts by close of business on Wednesday, July 7. Wednesday, June 30--Morning Session | 72 |
fomc | 1,999 | Mr. Madigan, you have the floor. | 10 |
fomc | 1,999 | This briefing provides background for your review of the ranges for money and debt for 1999 and your decision regarding provisional ranges for 2000. I'll be referring to the charts and tables from the Bluebook that have been distributed separately to you this morning in a package labeled "Staff Presentation on Money an... | 1,558 |
fomc | 1,999 | Thank you. It strikes me that we have an interesting dilemma, which is merely a variation of the ones we've had previously, and that is to try to maintain a set of monetary growth ranges that we perceive as consistent with price stability. That problem was easy to deal with when we were talking about stable trend produ... | 514 |
fomc | 1,999 | I think your advice and recommendation are right on target. I think we ought to keep this off the table. We have enough difficulties explaining where we are and what we are trying to do with monetary policy; it would serve no purpose to confuse matters with this unimportant issue now. So, I support your recommendation. | 63 |
fomc | 1,999 | Vice Chair. | 3 |
fomc | 1,999 | Mr. Chairman, on this issue I feel strongly only about one thing and that is that the fellow who has to go up and explain this should have the option of deciding what he wishes to explain or not explain. Therefore, I support fully your recommendation. | 51 |
fomc | 1,999 | I thank you, sir. President Moskow. | 10 |
fomc | 1,999 | Mr. Chairman, I agree completely. I don't think it serves any useful purpose to open this up to a wide range of discussion at this point. So, I agree with your recommendation. | 38 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | I totally agree with your recommendation. There is one thing I feel strongly about and that is not conveying the sense to the world that we have a settled notion of what long-term trend productivity is now. | 40 |
fomc | 1,999 | Governor Meyer. | 3 |
fomc | 1,999 | Mr. Chairman, I strongly support your views on this. Another consideration, given the importance of the monetary aggregates in our decisionmaking, is the less said about them the better. [Laughter] | 40 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 1,999 | Thank you. I agree with your recommendation of not changing the ranges. As far as discussing it in the Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, and perhaps as a way to initiate more public dialogue about these issues, I would ask that some weight be given to the idea that in industries where we know productivity gains have been ext... | 153 |
fomc | 1,999 | That is a very important point. In fact, that's the issue I raised last night with Eddie George: What is a true, stable price level? In other words, is a stable price level one that is conceivably going down at a measurable and known rate provided the rate of return on investment is stable? Obviously, price stability p... | 111 |
fomc | 1,999 | I hope so, too! | 6 |
fomc | 1,999 | Governor Gramlich. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | I think the Vice Chair put it well. I support your recommendation. | 14 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | Mr. Chairman, I agree as well. In addition to the arguments people have made, another matter is the timing. We may be in a period--we'll see in a few minutes--where we want to underscore our commitment to a low inflation policy. And to raise the targets at that same time might send a message to some people that we have... | 76 |
fomc | 1,999 | We would have to explain it. | 7 |
fomc | 1,999 | I certainly agree. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Parry. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | I agree with your recommendation. | 6 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 1,999 | I, too, agree with the recommendation, although I do think this raises an interesting question, mostly for the longer term. As a matter of logical consistency, if we do become convinced at some point that trend productivity and therefore trend output have accelerated, I think we are going to have to make an adjustment.... | 71 |
fomc | 1,999 | Governor Ferguson. | 3 |
fomc | 1,999 | Me too! | 3 |
fomc | 1,999 | That's ungrammatical! [Laughter] | 10 |
fomc | 1,999 | I as well. [Laughter] | 8 |
fomc | 1,999 | Well done! President Broaddus. | 8 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.