Source stringclasses 1
value | Date int64 1.98k 2.01k | Text stringlengths 2 27.1k | Token_count int64 1 5.57k |
|---|---|---|---|
fomc | 1,978 | It doesn't include negotiable CDs of 350 banks but it includes large CDs that are non-negotiable everywhere. It includes negotiable CDs at the banks under that top 350 group. And it has been a major mover in the behavior of the time deposit component of M2. | 57 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mark Willes. | 4 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I feel very strongly that we ought not to change the long-run ranges, and for more than public relations. Steve made a comment about a further downward drift in money--if [the staff estimate] is right--that was l percent. I think that's the number you used, Steve. With the growth in money in th... | 285 |
fomc | 1,978 | John Balles. | 4 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, Mr. Chairman, I would support the views that have been expressed by Governor Coldwell and President Morris. I am one of those who is an M2 believer. Well over a year ago we circulated a paper to everybody around this table that pointed out that prior to about mid-l975 M1 and M2 moved closely together and, therefo... | 336 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you, John. Bob Mayo. | 8 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, I find myself in complete agreement with Chuck Partee on the M2 arguments. I think this would be exactly the wrong time to move to a broader measure, even though I am enthusiastic in the longer run for more properly defined money supply concepts than we have to date. In the long run, Frank is right. Right... | 216 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you, Bob. Paul Volcker. | 9 |
fomc | 1,978 | I suspect this discussion, Mr. Chairman, suggests the need for reviewing the definition of M1 that we have now. | 24 |
fomc | 1,978 | I think so. I think it's one thing we must discuss at the end of this. | 18 |
fomc | 1,978 | I would urge that that be done. I certainly have some unhappiness about the general method of setting targets that we have. Frank distributed one possible reform and [it's one] that we had also looked at earlier and I am not sure that it is perfect. But we have had so much base drift recently, and the target we set is ... | 326 |
fomc | 1,978 | I think that's the point that Steve made--that if you don't do enough and then you fail to meet it, you have a double loss. | 29 |
fomc | 1,978 | That's right. I think we really have to balance an increase in the target with some move that makes it credible that we are going to meet it. So I come out thinking that kind of combination might be tolerable. I can't see going above 7. I would prefer to leave it unchanged for the reasons that have already been express... | 78 |
fomc | 1,978 | Many rationales will lead to the same [conclusion]. Bob Black. | 15 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, I distributed a table similar to the one that I did the last time which I was also pleased to see was quite similar to the one Bill Poole prepared for Frank. It is a tribute since I very much admire your work. To get down to it very quickly, I would propose that we try to work the rates of increase over t... | 357 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you, Bob. Ernie. | 8 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, Henry Wallich's comments adequately expressed my views. I would simply underscore that 4 to 6-1/2 today means about what 5 to 7-1/2 meant three months ago. And that is a fairly significant upward adjustment for the targets, it seems to me, and is adequate for the time being. So, "B" captures my views at t... | 83 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you very much. Roger. | 7 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I don't know quite how to say this. I've listened to the people around the table and I give great credence to what has been said about the international perception. But it bothers me that we may be underselling our critics and watchers in the sense that if we [stay] with no change--[4 to 6-1/2]... | 358 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, in terms of what is doable and not doable, my understanding of this morning's discussion was that 6-1/2 is doable. | 32 |
fomc | 1,978 | I don't believe it. | 5 |
fomc | 1,978 | Yes, in Bob's table, I think-- | 10 |
fomc | 1,978 | The staff should believe it. | 6 |
fomc | 1,978 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, a benefit of the automatic transfer-- | 9 |
fomc | 1,978 | President Volcker, what I was trying to say was that if you did not have automatic transfers, it would be like saying [6-1/2] was the midpoint of a range which would be more like 5 to 8 [these] days. | 53 |
fomc | 1,978 | But even without automatic transfers, Steve, wouldn't you agree that base drift makes 6-1/2 doable? | 23 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, I-- | 4 |
fomc | 1,978 | I think it does. | 5 |
fomc | 1,978 | Base drift makes anything doable. | 6 |
fomc | 1,978 | Now we need to hear from Philip Jackson. | 9 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, gentlemen, first I would urge that we not take into-- | 14 |
fomc | 1,978 | Phil, excuse me. Roger, I assume the others are the same then? | 16 |
fomc | 1,978 | Yes, leave M2 and M3. | 9 |
fomc | 1,978 | First, I would urge that we not take into consideration in establishing the targets the prospective change in the regulations that might occur as of November l with regard to automatic transfers. It strikes me that what we are really doing is continuing to set long-range targets for the purpose of operating until we se... | 477 |
fomc | 1,978 | Larry. | 2 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, I will be very brief. I have several observations. One, I would invite the attention of the Committee to the last page of the staff presentation which says unequivocally that 7-1/4 percent for M1 growth will result in 8.2 percent inflation in the year 1980. Without being specific, I would observe that the... | 351 |
fomc | 1,978 | Bones. | 2 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, I've heard the comments about the fact that we have not been hitting the ranges and that we ought to adjust them, and I am completely unimpressed at the moment. I think the timing could not be worse. It would tend to confuse the markets at a time when they are already uncertain. It would contribute to our... | 102 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you very much. Willis, you have been very unusually quiet. Wouldn't you like to be heard from? | 23 |
fomc | 1,978 | I thought that was the instruction. | 7 |
fomc | 1,978 | Not that quiet. We want to hear from you. | 11 |
fomc | 1,978 | It seems like we have backed ourselves into a win/lose posture no matter which way we go, which is not the way I like to look at alternatives. To minimize our risks, it seems to me that the status quo, for reasons that have already been expressed, would be the best posture. | 60 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, thank you. I think we have heard from everyone on this subject. You will be impressed to know that of the voting members, not counting myself who has not yet indicated [any view on this], only three would change M1 by raising the upper limit. And there is one non-voting member who would do the same. So, unless th... | 169 |
fomc | 1,978 | I would like to ask all this great assemblage who believe in maintaining the range on M1 what they would say about the way to get growth down within the range. Are you going to get down within it? Are you going to raise interest rates 300, 400, 500 basis points? Is that what you would have the Chairman say to the [Cong... | 78 |
fomc | 1,978 | May I respond to that? I think the Chairman has an excellent opportunity to spell out the fact of great uncertainty--and great disagreement as a matter of fact--in judgments within the Committee on the behavior of M1 over this entire period, especially because of the automatic transfers. Therefore, the significance of ... | 103 |
fomc | 1,978 | You would permit him to say: Well, that's our range but we may exceed it. | 18 |
fomc | 1,978 | You would almost have to say that. | 8 |
fomc | 1,978 | We are going to come closer this time, Chuck, than we have; and very frankly, base drift helps us do that. | 26 |
fomc | 1,978 | There are two sentiments that I hear, Chuck. One is that we are going to have these ranges and explain later our going over them. The other is that we are going to have these ranges and live within them. And those will be the debates at our following meetings. It seems to me that is what the issue is. | 66 |
fomc | 1,978 | You are giving him a very difficult assignment. | 9 |
fomc | 1,978 | Could I ask just a quick question of Chuck? I am interested in why you are so certain, Chuck, that M1 is going to grow at that 7-1/2 percent rate [that you mentioned] over the entire period starting with the second quarter of this year. | 57 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, because almost everyone has a forecast for nominal GNP that is in the vicinity of 11 percent for the next year. Some have more inflation and less real, some have more real and less inflation. For example, the Chairman stated his point estimates at 3-1/2 and 7-1/2. That is about 11 percent nominal GNP; it is a lit... | 327 |
fomc | 1,978 | May I just make one comment? I think what we have seen happen is that we have gone from something like 4-1/2 to 5 percent real growth with 6 to 6-1/2 percent inflation to something like a 3 to 3-1/2 percent rate of [GNP] increase with 7-1/2 to 8 percent inflation, coming out with the same nominal activity. That has put... | 140 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, can I make one point? | 10 |
fomc | 1,978 | Yes, Phil. | 4 |
fomc | 1,978 | [There is another] reason I opted for a slightly higher rate in M1 as well as the other things I have already said. [If we retain the current range] I think we are giving up an opportunity here to say to the Congress: Look, the Administration and the Congressional actions of the past year and those forthcoming in the f... | 148 |
fomc | 1,978 | I don't know, because actually the threat that we would squeeze more is more of a threat than what we would give up. I [think] Congress has reacted more from a fear that we would tighten. | 41 |
fomc | 1,978 | I think we are forecasting a tightening. | 8 |
fomc | 1,978 | I am saying that while I am concerned about all of this, I think we'd be more likely to persuade them to do something legislative if they felt the other choice was tight monetary policy. I don't know. | 41 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, I think that the Coldwell proposal, which I would accept, does imply a considerable further increase in interest rates. | 25 |
fomc | 1,978 | Oh yes, no question about that. | 8 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman? | 4 |
fomc | 1,978 | Yes, Lawrence. | 4 |
fomc | 1,978 | I don't think we should lose sight of the fact that anything that enhances inflationary expectations will lead to an increase in interest rates, too. If people think that we have lost control of our ability to deal with inflation, inevitably that will cause interest rates to rise. Long-term rates are rising now. We are... | 97 |
fomc | 1,978 | You all have heard the discussion. It has been very thorough and interesting. Are there any candidates to switch votes? If not, there is a majority, I am afraid. We just have to vote; that is all. | 45 |
fomc | 1,978 | I feel I could go to 7 but I'd hate to go to 7-1/2. The argument just comes too close to saying we have had a lot of inflation and, therefore, we will increase our targets. | 46 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, you are the one who is going to have to face the music. | 18 |
fomc | 1,978 | I can live with anything. I have to learn to do that because, when you vote, there is not much else I could do. What are my other choices? It is a very sneaky way to ask for my resignation! | 47 |
fomc | 1,978 | If I could just follow up: I, for one, would certainly be interested, if you care to share your view with us. I assume everybody else would. I don't think I heard you express your view. | 43 |
fomc | 1,978 | I think my preference would have been to make some upward adjustment in the top of the M1 range--how far I had not decided--because I think we have a better chance of restoring credibility. Even if we went to 7, we would have a chance at least to come nearer to our goal. With 7-1/2, I admit that you begin to raise seri... | 191 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, I wonder if this would make any sense at all, even though I discarded it in my own thinking: If you are going to raise the upper end of the range by 1/2 point, for the reasons that have been set forth earlier, you could take some of the sting out of the announcement effect of that by dropping the lower en... | 143 |
fomc | 1,978 | But it is very hard to imagine that getting-- | 10 |
fomc | 1,978 | I think that would be perceived [in a way] that might [work] against us. Look, we can live with whatever you vote because we are going to be back [reviewing these long-run ranges again] in three months. We also are going to have a lot of other hot issues around town. To a degree, there will be a divergent interest in t... | 85 |
fomc | 1,978 | Move the question. | 4 |
fomc | 1,978 | Will you call the roll, Mr. Broida? Look, I think we need to do this. We need to focus on M1 because it does not look like there is any sentiment that would get a consensus for changing [to] M2 or M3. Let me call your attention to the recommendation in alternative B that the bank credit range be increased by l percenta... | 114 |
fomc | 1,978 | I would prefer not to make that change. | 9 |
fomc | 1,978 | Let's vote on that separately. Let us first take M1. | 13 |
fomc | 1,978 | Point of information, Mr. Chairman: In the bank credit numbers, are we getting the foreign bank credit in that picture or not? Is it just loans to domestic companies? | 35 |
fomc | 1,978 | It's everything except the agencies. | 6 |
fomc | 1,978 | That is not the branches here but the foreign banks? | 11 |
fomc | 1,978 | Foreign branches and foreign-owned banks operating in the United States are in the statistics; foreign agencies operating in the United States are not. We hope to revise [the definition of bank credit] to include those in l979. | 44 |
fomc | 1,978 | Loans from foreign banks I think are what you asked about. In other words, Barclays lending [unintelligible]. But that is a big factor in this. | 33 |
fomc | 1,978 | Doing it without operating through a branch? I don't think it would be picked up, would it Ed? If it is a direct loan from a British bank to a U.S. company, it will not be picked up. For M1, let us just say maintain or revise upward. We know what we mean. | 64 |
fomc | 1,978 | Chairman Miller I would revise upward Vice Chairman Volcker Maintain President Baughman Maintain Governor Coldwell Revise upward President Eastburn Maintain Governor Jackson Revise upward Governor Partee Revise upward Governor Wallich Maintain President Willes Maintain President Winn Maintain It's 6 to 4 to maintain th... | 62 |
fomc | 1,978 | I will switch my vote and go along with the majority. Does anybody else want to be associated with this? | 22 |
fomc | 1,978 | I see no reason to create a major division on this point because I think we're going to be back at it in October, so I will go with the majority. | 33 |
fomc | 1,978 | I maintain my negative. | 5 |
fomc | 1,978 | You are going to maintain your negative. | 8 |
fomc | 1,978 | I maintain my position. | 5 |
fomc | 1,978 | Okay, we have two dissents. All right, thank you very much. Now, on bank credit, do we take the current range or the alternative B range? I am willing to go with the range in alternative B. | 46 |
fomc | 1,978 | Vice Chairman Volcker In all honesty, I am willing to go either way President Baughman I will take the "B" range President Coldwell Current range President Eastburn "B" Governor Jackson Current Governor Partee It doesn't make that much difference; I'd suggest 8 to 11. | 59 |
fomc | 1,978 | To be consistent with the other vote, you have to go for "B." | 16 |
fomc | 1,978 | No you don't, because there are an awful lot of sales of non-money instruments. | 17 |
fomc | 1,978 | All right, go ahead. | 6 |
fomc | 1,978 | Governor Wallich "B" President Willes "B" President Winn I would go for the current range I guess there are 5 for "B," 3 for the current range, one no comment, and one 8 to 11. | 50 |
fomc | 1,978 | I will change mine to "B." | 8 |
fomc | 1,978 | So will I. | 4 |
fomc | 1,978 | Anybody else? All right no dissents on that. Thank you very much, I think. One word: We do need to do some work. We have Larry's suggestion and we have Frank's suggestion and we did not have time, obviously, to [give them much] attention. We know we need to redefine the aggregates. I think the staff had a proposal on t... | 107 |
fomc | 1,978 | Correction: Some of the Governors were not interested. | 10 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.