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fomc | 1,999 | This is not going to materially affect the additional- | 10 |
fomc | 1,999 | No, but we have seen a decline of several tenths in the unemployment rate over the year. | 20 |
fomc | 1,999 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,999 | How does one reconcile that with the idea of an increasing level of potential in the economy? | 18 |
fomc | 1,999 | I think if potential had been as low as we previously had been gauging it--this gets a little confusing because we have changed the books here--one might have wondered why the unemployment rate had not fallen more. So I think this does fit. And indeed we have reestimated our Okun's Law relationship and feel reasonably ... | 86 |
fomc | 1,999 | So you feel that makes it more understandable rather than less understandable? | 13 |
fomc | 1,999 | Yes. It wasn't a really big problem, but it does seem to be compatible with our assumptions. Indeed, it is even compatible with Okun's Law relationships that are estimated from the income side of the national accounts. There doesn't seem to be a great mystery in that respect. The little uptick in labor force participat... | 100 |
fomc | 1,999 | Potential is rising largely because of productivity. | 8 |
fomc | 1,999 | Right. | 2 |
fomc | 1,999 | It is not a labor force phenomenon. | 8 |
fomc | 1,999 | No, I realize that. | 6 |
fomc | 1,999 | Further questions for our colleagues? I want you to understand that this is a record low number of questions! The Vice Chair predicts that you will catch up later. Who would like to start the Committee discussion? President Jordan. | 44 |
fomc | 1,999 | Thanks. The general sense of both business and labor contacts in the District is that the boom continues and that it will be even stronger next year. I have been expecting our region of the country to be among the first to show signs of flattening out. And I still think that's a reasonable expectation, given the compos... | 1,210 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Not a lot has changed in New England since our last meeting. Growth continues to be vibrant. Labor markets are very tight, and both published data and anecdotal evidence point to increasing cost pressures, especially as they regard health insurance premiums and rising materials costs. New Engla... | 1,308 |
fomc | 1,999 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 1,999 | Economic activity in the Eleventh District advanced at a healthy rate in the third quarter, and employment growth continued to run at rates about twice the national average. In retrospect, it appears that the District was more adversely affected by the Asian crisis than we initially thought and we are now benefiting fr... | 980 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Parry. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | Mr. Chairman, the Twelfth District economic expansion continues to outpace the average for the rest of the nation. During the third quarter, employment grew at a 2.4 percent rate, exactly equal to the pace during the first half of the year. However, growth in most of our states, including California, has been slower th... | 613 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The Seventh District economy continues to be quite healthy, but reports from our directors and other business contacts suggest that activity is moderating somewhat in a number of sectors. At the same time, we are also getting more frequent reports of increasing wages as a result of still very t... | 1,017 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Broaddus | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. In our District, activity continues to grow at a solid pace overall, maybe even a bit more than solid. Sales in our region seem to have accelerated in October and those strong sales appear to be continuing in November. Generally retailers in our region are fairly optimistic about prospects for ... | 980 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | Mr. Chairman, the Tenth District also continues to do quite well; we have not seen a lot of change since our last meeting. On the basis of our surveys of District activity, there has been some slowing in the residential housing market from the earlier rapid pace and a bit of slowing in some areas of retail sales. In th... | 521 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Overall growth in the Southeastern region remains healthy, but with some unevenness across sectors. For example, manufacturing, which as I reported was a bit soft at the time of our last meeting, has bounced back, with current production and shipments higher and the outlook viewed as optimistic... | 932 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 1,999 | Thank you. The District economy remains healthy. If anything, it has improved even further because a couple of the sectors that were lagging--namely, iron ore mining and oil exploration--have picked up recently, albeit in the case of oil exploration from a relatively low base. Otherwise, manufacturing is strong and con... | 486 |
fomc | 1,999 | Vice Chair. | 3 |
fomc | 1,999 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The economic growth in the Second District has moderated since our last report. Overall consumer price inflation has barely accelerated, though there are scattered reports of some rising prices--for example, in manufacturing inputs, housing, and hotel rooms. The unemployment rate continued to h... | 684 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Poole. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | Mr. Chairman, I can summarize the information from our contacts in the Eighth District in four points. First, housing activity is definitely a bit slower, but not a whole lot. Second, labor market pressures continue, but despite isolated areas of sizable wage gains there is no generalized break-out from the recent expe... | 335 |
fomc | 1,999 | Governor Gramlich. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Using orthodox reasoning, I think a case for tightening policy at this meeting could be made fairly readily. The flat funds rate version of the Greenbook forecast has aggregate demand growing at a rate of nearly 5 percent in this half year and nearly 4 percent for the next two years. Starting f... | 1,205 |
fomc | 1,999 | Governor Ferguson. | 3 |
fomc | 1,999 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. At the last meeting I think many of us were willing to take a patient but vigilant attitude, recognizing that a great deal of data would become available during the intermeeting period. Now those data have become available and we seem to be faced with a choice between what I'll describe as poli... | 896 |
fomc | 1,999 | Governor Meyer. | 3 |
fomc | 1,999 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. We have a wealth of new and especially revised data to incorporate into our assessment of the outlook. On balance, the data suggest that both productive capacity and demand are advancing more rapidly than previously expected. The further upward revision of the estimate of trend productivity doe... | 632 |
fomc | 1,999 | I wish to note that our governor is literally a one-handed economist. [Laughter] Governor Kelley. | 21 |
fomc | 1,999 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. By this time of the morning most of what needs to be said has already been said. But let me briefly summarize how I see the state of play and offer several comments that I hope might be useful as we move toward our policy formulation. It seems clear that the economy remains very strong, with a ... | 688 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Boehne. | 5 |
fomc | 1,999 | The regional economy in the Philadelphia District continues to grow. Labor markets are tight, yet there are few signs of any upward trend in inflation despite rising raw materials prices. The outlook generally remains positive and there has been no basic change in recent months. One continues to hear stories about inno... | 258 |
fomc | 1,999 | We have just created another record. We are on time for coffee. | 14 |
fomc | 1,999 | Let's turn to Don Kohn for his report. | 10 |
fomc | 1,999 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Based on the information received since your last meeting, most market observers have characterized your decision today on whether to raise rates or leave them unchanged as a "close call." And in the interest rate futures market the odds on a 25 basis point policy firming at this meeting are no... | 2,054 |
fomc | 1,999 | Questions for Don? If not, let me get started. Some very interesting questions are being raised around this table today and around a lot of other tables where I have participated in discussions during the last month or two. What is coming across is a quite remarkable divergence of opinions. For example, those around th... | 3,116 |
fomc | 1,999 | Mr. Chairman, I agree fully with both the reasoning behind your recommendation and with the recommendation itself. I agree that we should increase the funds rate by 25 basis points. I think we must be symmetric or we will create uncertainty in financial markets during the end-of-the-year period, when markets are always... | 109 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Boehne. | 5 |
fomc | 1,999 | I find going up 25 basis points and the symmetric directive acceptable. I think whether we move today or not is a close enough call that reasonable people can differ, and the difference is so little that what one prefers and what one finds acceptable are fairly close together. I actually feel more strongly about the ne... | 164 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 1,999 | I agree with your recommendation on the funds rate and, of course, with the symmetric directive. I was pleased to hear and interested in your analysis of how productivity changes, especially in a positive direction, can have secondary effects if one puts that acceleration into a larger general equilibrium context. I kn... | 170 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 1,999 | I agree with your recommendation, Mr. Chairman. I think an economic case could be made for retaining asymmetry, but I won't press my luck. | 30 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | I certainly agree with your recommendation, Mr. Chairman. I, too, think one could make a distinction between the economics associated with asymmetry and the potential for market uncertainties related to Y2K concerns at year-end. But on the whole, I'm persuaded that we're better off with a symmetric directive for the re... | 69 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | I can support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman. | 10 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Poole. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | Mr. Chairman, I support the recommendation. I'd like to offer two observations. First, in terms of low inflation expectations and the lack of pricing power, that's because the market trusts us to contain inflation. And, therefore, we can't use those low inflation expectations as a good signal about when it might be tim... | 197 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 1,999 | I can accept your recommendation, Mr. Chairman. Although I think there is some chance that this action may be unnecessary, I doubt it will be harmful. Let me just reiterate my own uncertainty about what the appropriate model is in this environment. It seems to me that many of the conventional models that we've been loo... | 192 |
fomc | 1,999 | Governor Kelley. | 3 |
fomc | 1,999 | I concur with your recommendation, Mr. Chairman. | 10 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | Mr. Chairman, I agree completely with your recommendation. I think the risks of not moving are much higher. I do feel asymmetric, but it would be very misleading and confusing to the markets for us to come out with an asymmetric directive. So I agree with both parts of your recommendation. | 58 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Parry. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | Mr. Chairman, this month we once again face the issue of how much weight to put on a forecast of rising inflation, a forecast that so far has been on the high side compared with the more favorable actual results. When the October meeting concluded, I was fairly confident that we would need to raise rates at this meetin... | 169 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | Mr. Chairman, I think both your recommendations for a 1/4 point increase in the funds rate and a symmetric directive are prudent, and I support them. | 33 |
fomc | 1,999 | Governor Gramlich. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | I support your recommendations of a 25 basis point increase and a symmetric directive. Let me say one thing about process. At the November meeting Bill McDonough mentioned the awkward timing of our regular December meeting and Bob Parry just intimated a concern about that also. So, at some point we might look at the me... | 317 |
fomc | 1,999 | Governor Meyer. | 3 |
fomc | 1,999 | Mr. Chairman, I can support your recommendation for a 1/4 point increase in the funds rate and I can accept your recommendation for a symmetric directive. The problem I have is this: While I want to convey to the markets the view that there is little chance that we would make an additional move between now and our Febr... | 254 |
fomc | 1,999 | Governor Ferguson. | 3 |
fomc | 1,999 | Mr. Chairman, I can support both halves of your recommendation. Let me say just one thing about the symmetry. In a strategic sense I think it's exactly the right place to be because I do think, for reasons that you and others have outlined, that there is a great deal of uncertainty about where policy is going to go nex... | 119 |
fomc | 1,999 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 1,999 | I agree with your recommendation for a 25 basis point increase and for symmetric directive language both because I think it's better to take the cloud off the markets and also because I'm not sure that move won't be the last in a series of tightening actions. I feel rather symmetric myself about where things will be ar... | 221 |
fomc | 1,999 | We have a consensus on 25 basis points and symmetry. Would you read the appropriate directive? | 19 |
fomc | 1,999 | I'll be reading from page 14 in the Bluebook: "To promote the Committee's long-run objectives of price stability and sustainable economic growth, the Committee in the immediate future seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with increasing the federal funds rate to an average of around 51/2 percent. In view of t... | 95 |
fomc | 1,999 | Call the roll please. | 5 |
fomc | 1,999 | Chairman Greenspan Yes Vice Chairman McDonough Yes President Boehne Yes Governor Ferguson Yes Governor Gramlich Yes Governor Kelley Yes President McTeer Yes Governor Meyer Yes President Moskow Yes President Stern Yes | 41 |
fomc | 1,999 | A draft press statement is being distributed so that we can all look at it. As we agreed last time, it's very difficult for us to write communiques in these meetings. Experience with the G-7 and other groups, as I've told you before, suggests that if we take the writing of our statement overly seriously, we're going to... | 143 |
fomc | 1,999 | This says that "the pool of available workers willing to take jobs has been drawn down further, a trend that must eventually be contained...." I don't think we ought to say that. I think it ought to be drawn down until there's no one left. | 51 |
fomc | 1,999 | That is the limit of how far it could go. [Laughter] | 15 |
fomc | 1,999 | I understand the practical problem of achieving that, but it seems to me that we just shouldn't be saying that. | 22 |
fomc | 1,999 | Let me put it this way. We've said this a number of times in the past, and this is essentially the language we've used. So we don't want to convey something over and above what I think has been said previously on this issue. Governor Meyer. | 51 |
fomc | 1,999 | I'm concerned about the third paragraph. It talks about slowing growth down toward trend and I think there is a reasonable prospect that we might do that. But I heard concerns expressed around the table--and others can speak for themselves--that that might not be sufficient to contain inflation going forward, or that a... | 150 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Poole. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | Mr. Chairman, I think I would delete the second paragraph altogether. [Laughter] To be frank, it doesn't seem to me to add very much. Often it's better to say less rather than more unless we're convinced that what we're saying is constructive and will produce the result that we want. I also share Governor Meyer's conce... | 84 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | Mr. Chairman, I'm inclined to echo what Governor Meyer just said in terms of the impression we create in the market. Rather than give you another iteration of that concern, I'll leave it that. So, in terms of this statement, I'm in agreement with Governor Meyer. | 54 |
fomc | 1,999 | Vice Chair. | 3 |
fomc | 1,999 | Mr. Chairman, I like the presentation as it exists. Let me say why. I think the second paragraph has to be included because it does say that at a certain point we just run out of resources and the likely resource that we're going to run out of is available workers. I also share Bob McTeer's view. There was a fascinatin... | 219 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 1,999 | I would like to associate myself with Larry Meyer's comment; I have the same concern. I don't know what substitute language to offer, but perhaps something along the lines of "after taking three actions, we think this is sufficient for the time being but continued vigilance is needed" as opposed to something that has t... | 69 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Boehne. | 5 |
fomc | 1,999 | Mr. Chairman, if each of us sat down to write this statement, we undoubtedly would come up with somewhat different language and somewhat different emphases. But, frankly, while we'd all do it a little differently, I think this is close enough that we ought to accept it and move on to the next item on the agenda. It's n... | 170 |
fomc | 1,999 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 1,999 | I have a great deal of sympathy for what President Boehne just said. I know rewriting by committee is really hard to do, having done it more than once myself on things of less importance than this statement. But I have two real concerns. First of all, I share Bob McTeer's concern about using the pool of available worke... | 196 |
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