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fomc | 1,999 | Yes. In hindsight, obviously, we'd know somewhat more. Let me summarize what I have heard and where I think we are. In some sense not surprisingly--though there are some caveats and a few people are in between--we still seem to have, as we did the last time, four people who feel on the core question of the balance of r... | 387 |
fomc | 1,999 | We have gone through a process here and we have reached a consensus. It's a quite overwhelming consensus, though it's not 100 percent. So I'm perfectly satisfied that the process has worked. I got the chance to try to persuade others to my viewpoint and I was unsuccessful. And I would certainly consider myself bound by... | 80 |
fomc | 1,999 | Well, Larry Meyer has proven himself to be not just a great economist, but a diplomat. | 19 |
fomc | 1,999 | And a gentleman on top of that! | 8 |
fomc | 1,999 | Well, we knew he was that! If that's the case, Mr. Chairman, could you ask for a motion on this? | 26 |
fomc | 1,999 | In the past, Governor Ferguson, we haven't actually had formal Committee votes on matters such as these. But, obviously, you might want to see a show of hands to make sure that people could "live with" the decisions. Among other things, the Committee has often wanted to include everybody, even nonvoting members, on the... | 79 |
fomc | 1,999 | Yes, on a matter like this, it's everybody. | 11 |
fomc | 1,999 | It's clearly everybody. I was thinking more of just a show of hands from all, not dividing it by members and nonmembers. | 26 |
fomc | 1,999 | I think it might be helpful to take each of the matters separately. | 14 |
fomc | 1,999 | Fine. We will go through the memo and basically have a show of hands on each issue, still being quite democratic. Section one dealt with nine general points on which there was consensus. I heard no one dispute those, but let me just ask for a show of hands on Section one, which deals with the nine points. Is there gene... | 207 |
fomc | 1,999 | Two opposed. | 3 |
fomc | 1,999 | In Section C on page 6, Cathy Minehan has proposed a slight rewording of the directive. Although Cathy referred to it in our go-around, we did not have much discussion on it. Let me just ask for a show of hands on the language, which is actually on the top of page 7 in Section C. All in favor of that approach? Those op... | 323 |
fomc | 1,999 | The last sentence was: "Separately, the Committee indicated that it plans in January to make a public announcement about future adjustments to its disclosure policy and the so-called 'bias' statement." | 38 |
fomc | 1,999 | Does anyone have an objection to including that sentence in today's announcement? Yes, go ahead Peter. | 19 |
fomc | 1,999 | Could I just give a perspective from the market? In my view, if you put out that statement, it's like putting up a neon sign that says. "Coming soon: A big change in our bias!" I just don't think the market is going wait and give you a chance to draft a well crafted press release. The crescendo of interest in that, I t... | 80 |
fomc | 1,999 | That's a good point. | 5 |
fomc | 1,999 | I think that's a good point. Let's just put out the press release when it's ready in January. | 20 |
fomc | 1,999 | Does anyone have a counterpoint to that? | 9 |
fomc | 1,999 | One reason to include it in today's statement was to make sure that the market understood that there had been no change in policy today and that the changes would be announced later. | 34 |
fomc | 1,999 | I don't think that's really necessary. The press release on our vote today was pretty clear. It's unambiguous. That issue could surface, but I don't think it will. | 35 |
fomc | 1,999 | Our stance then, when we're asked about the Committee's decision, is to say that we have nothing to announce, period? | 25 |
fomc | 1,999 | Right. At least the truth will set you free! | 11 |
fomc | 1,999 | That brings us to the end of our agenda, except for the pro forma announcement that our next meeting--as I'm sure you're all acutely aware--is scheduled for February 1st and 2nd. Merry Christmas everybody and hopefully a Happy New Year! | 52 |
fomc | 2,000 | Happy New Year everybody! Happy Millennium! | 8 |
fomc | 2,000 | Happy post-Y2K! | 6 |
fomc | 2,000 | With those insightful remarks, I will turn the floor over to Governor Ferguson. | 15 |
fomc | 2,000 | Thank you very much. The first order of business today is to elect a Chairman who will serve until the first scheduled meeting in the year of 2001. So, let me open the floor for nominations. Are there any nominations? Governor Kelley. | 50 |
fomc | 2,000 | Thank you. After long and careful consideration, it is my honor to place in nomination the names of Alan Greenspan for Chairman and William McDonough for Vice Chairman. | 34 |
fomc | 2,000 | Is there a second? | 5 |
fomc | 2,000 | Second. | 2 |
fomc | 2,000 | Thank you. I'm glad someone seconded it! Are there any objections to those two nominations? Hearing no objections, I will declare the vote unanimous. Let me congratulate the two of you! | 38 |
fomc | 2,000 | I always appreciate the democratic process! [Laughter] | 11 |
fomc | 2,000 | And I support that view of democracy and the procedures that elected us, Mr. Chairman. | 18 |
fomc | 2,000 | Thank you. The next item on the agenda is to elect staff officers, and I will ask Norm Bernard to read the list. | 26 |
fomc | 2,000 | The proposed slate of staff officers is as follows: Secretary and Economist, Donald Kohn; Deputy Secretary, Normand Bernard; Assistant Secretaries, Lynn Fox and Gary Gillum; General Counsel, Virgil Mattingly; Deputy General Counsel, Thomas Baxter; Economists, Karen Johnson and Michael Prell; Associate Economists from t... | 148 |
fomc | 2,000 | Are there any objections to anyone on that list? If not, would somebody like to move the slate? | 21 |
fomc | 2,000 | I move the slate. | 5 |
fomc | 2,000 | Is there a second? | 5 |
fomc | 2,000 | Second. | 2 |
fomc | 2,000 | Without objection. Thank you very much. The next item on the agenda, as you know, is the selection of a Federal Reserve Bank to execute transactions for the System Open Market Account. Would somebody like to propose a bank? | 45 |
fomc | 2,000 | I move that we select the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. | 13 |
fomc | 2,000 | Is there a second? | 5 |
fomc | 2,000 | Second. | 2 |
fomc | 2,000 | Objections? Without objection, so ordered. The next item on the agenda is the selection of a Manager of the System Open Market Account. Are there nominations? | 32 |
fomc | 2,000 | I nominate Peter Fisher, Mr. Chairman, as Manager of the System Open Market Account. | 18 |
fomc | 2,000 | Is there a second? | 5 |
fomc | 2,000 | I second it. | 4 |
fomc | 2,000 | Without objection, so ordered. I wish to state, however, that the directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York are required under our rules to confirm that choice. I trust you are sufficiently nervous! [Laughter] | 45 |
fomc | 2,000 | Yes, sir. | 4 |
fomc | 2,000 | We have proposed changes to the Authorization for Domestic Open Market Operations. Peter, would you review them very briefly for us? | 24 |
fomc | 2,000 | Members of the Committee will recall, as Norm Bernard's memo spelled out, that the authority to sell options on RPs, which the Committee granted the Desk on a temporary basis last August, will expire at the end of this month. The authority to do reverse RPs and the liberalization of the "Guidelines for the Conduct of S... | 111 |
fomc | 2,000 | There is also the added paragraph relating to the Chairman's latitude to make intermeeting adjustments to policy in exceptional circumstances. The suggested wording is that set forth in Governor Ferguson's memorandum of December 17, 1999, which was discussed at the December FOMC meeting. | 55 |
fomc | 2,000 | Comments? Would somebody like to move the proposal? | 10 |
fomc | 2,000 | Move approval. | 3 |
fomc | 2,000 | Second. | 2 |
fomc | 2,000 | Without objection. The next item is the review of the foreign currency instruments, which I presume is a wholly routine item. Is that correct? | 28 |
fomc | 2,000 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 2,000 | Unless somebody has any objection, would somebody move renewal of those instruments? | 14 |
fomc | 2,000 | So move. | 3 |
fomc | 2,000 | Second? | 2 |
fomc | 2,000 | Second. | 2 |
fomc | 2,000 | Mr. Chairman, I think President Broaddus-- | 11 |
fomc | 2,000 | I am going to vote in opposition of their renewal for the same reasons I have in the past. | 20 |
fomc | 2,000 | The Secretary will please register that President Broaddus voted in opposition. The next item on the agenda is the Program for Security of FOMC Information. Does anyone have any comment on the memorandum we received on this? If not, would somebody like to move approval? | 54 |
fomc | 2,000 | I move that. | 4 |
fomc | 2,000 | Second? | 2 |
fomc | 2,000 | Second. | 2 |
fomc | 2,000 | Without objection. | 3 |
fomc | 2,000 | Mr. Chairman, I presume that what is being approved would include the revisions that were noted in the memo that was just circulated. Perhaps all members have not seen that. Except for item number 6 in that memo, the others will be implemented. | 50 |
fomc | 2,000 | The next item on the agenda is the approval of the proposed changes in the Federal Open Market Committee's Rules and Procedures. It is a routine matter involving the inclusion of communication by "electronic means" as an acceptable form for communication between the Secretary and the members of the Committee, and I pre... | 83 |
fomc | 2,000 | Move approval. | 3 |
fomc | 2,000 | Second? | 2 |
fomc | 2,000 | Second. | 2 |
fomc | 2,000 | Without objection. We will now move to the regular formal meeting agenda. I ask for approval of the minutes of our December meeting. | 26 |
fomc | 2,000 | So moved. | 3 |
fomc | 2,000 | Without objection. Peter Fisher. | 6 |
fomc | 2,000 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I will be referring to the package of charts with the peach Class II cover on it, beginning as usual with the chart on forward deposit rates. 1 The top panel depicts U.S. forward rates and current 3-month rates. As you can see there, forward rates backed up from the time of your December meetin... | 3,549 |
fomc | 2,000 | I would just like to say that I thought the Desk handled this very turbulent period extremely well and I found your report most informative. I am glad that we were able to unwind ourselves from this period without any undue casualties--or at least none of which I am aware. | 54 |
fomc | 2,000 | Thank you very much! | 5 |
fomc | 2,000 | I would second that. I think you earned an A+ for the way you performed through this period; you and your staff deserve congratulations. I have a question, even though you did so very well! [Laughter] Did you learn anything through this process that would lead you to want to do something differently if we had a similar... | 75 |
fomc | 2,000 | Well, we will be bringing forward as many of those issues as we can think of to be discussed formally at the March meeting. I will say that what was very frustrating for us, and I am partly responsible, was the asymmetry of the information we provided. That is, we gave the market very detailed information about our gro... | 187 |
fomc | 2,000 | Further questions? | 3 |
fomc | 2,000 | I would like to make a comment also to applaud the conduct of the Desk. But since I got to drop in and watch them on occasion, I want to note that one would have thought that this was the most relaxing period that any group of very young people was going through. And they are very young. Peter Fisher and Sandy Krieger ... | 103 |
fomc | 2,000 | If I could--I should have mentioned it in my briefing--I would like to thank the staff from all the other Reserve Districts, particularly those in the cash offices, that provided us with a much higher level of information than usual and made some of this forecasting a lot easier. There was a tremendous effort on the pa... | 117 |
fomc | 2,000 | Further questions for Peter? If not, I assume there is no problem ratifying the actions the Desk took during the period. Would someone like to move approval? | 32 |
fomc | 2,000 | Move approval. | 3 |
fomc | 2,000 | Without objection. Mike Prell, Karen Johnson, and Dave Stockton. | 14 |
fomc | 2,000 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I almost hesitate to refer you to this rather 2 tame set of charts after the abundance of color you have just seen. But this is what we have! Chart 1 summarizes our forecast. But, before I get into the numbers here, I should take note of some late-breaking news. First was the upside surprise in... | 2,342 |
fomc | 2,000 | Economic activity in the rest of the world continues to expand, and prospects for this year and next are favorable for most regions. Moderate to vigorous real output growth around the globe poses risks that inflationary pressures could emerge in world commodity markets, and eventually product markets more generally, an... | 3,138 |
fomc | 2,000 | The upper panel of the next chart displays our inflation projection. As depicted by the black line, consumer prices, measured by the PCE chain-weight index, accelerated a percentage point last year to 2 percent--a pace we expect to hold this year and next. That relative stability masks what we anticipate will be some d... | 2,353 |
fomc | 2,000 | Just to wrap up quickly, the final chart summarizes the forecasts you submitted. The central tendency for real GDP growth is 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, somewhat below the Greenbook number, and you see no significant change in the unemployment rate over the course of the year, as is the case in our forecast. Your PCE price... | 157 |
fomc | 2,000 | That was very well done and I think quite informative. Questions for our colleagues? President Minehan. | 20 |
fomc | 2,000 | Mike, you highlighted at the end of your remarks that you thought the Administration's forecast was likely to be different from yours on the growth side, possibly because of different assumptions about productivity. It would seem that most forecasts are different from yours on the growth side. Whether one looks at the ... | 113 |
fomc | 2,000 | It may just be that we are wild and crazy guys here! [Laughter] | 17 |
fomc | 2,000 | I love it when you say that! | 8 |
fomc | 2,000 | However, we tried to temper our wildness and do a little homework, and I think Dave Stockton laid out the crux of our analysis. We've looked in particular at what has been--and we expect will continue to be--rapid growth in the capital stock and the flow of capital services. That growth does seem to have been paying of... | 261 |
fomc | 2,000 | It is also rather interesting, though, that most of those forecasts have assumed much less tightening than you do. The average tightening in all of the forecasts is somewhere between 25 and 50 basis points with something on the order of 75 to 100 basis points less in terms of growth. | 59 |
fomc | 2,000 | I don't have enough information on all of the individual forecasts to be able to analyze these differences. I think the productivity assumption difference is part of the story. It is propelling permanent income growth higher. It is affecting the stock market. Some of the forecasts--Macro Advisors, for example, for whic... | 219 |
fomc | 2,000 | That's just inconsistent. | 4 |
fomc | 2,000 | One can have different coefficients or a different view of the wealth effects and so on. One can attribute less of the strength in consumption demand to normal wealth effects and more to the spate of mortgage refinancing last year or to just erratic elements. We recognize that we are above the crowd but we are hard pre... | 82 |
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