Source stringclasses 1
value | Date int64 1.98k 2.01k | Text stringlengths 2 27.1k | Token_count int64 1 5.57k |
|---|---|---|---|
fomc | 2,002 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The latest readings on the District economy are consistent with what we've been seeing and saying about the business news more broadly. Consumer spending has been strong, particularly for home furnishings, electronics, autos, and at bars and restaurants. Housing had a very good year in 2001. Co... | 464 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Our District economy in terms of the level of activity is still relatively weak. But as others have said about their Districts, the signs are growing that the situation is likely to improve, and there is a great deal more optimism among manufacturers and businesses operating in the region. Turn... | 731 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Overall business conditions in the Sixth District are now more mixed than I reported at the last meeting. While clearly not as positive as some read the evidence at the national level, things are marginally less negative and at least are not inconsistent with the suggestion that activity may ha... | 1,323 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you. Those of you who live in the warmer climates of the nation probably don't realize that we are now at the peak of the boating season in the north of the country! That's because boating is not about having a large, expensive piece of fiberglass bobbing up and down in a marina someplace. It's about boat shows b... | 1,611 |
fomc | 2,002 | Vice Chair. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Economic conditions in the Second District continued to improve since my last report, and inflation has remained negligible. State governments in the District face very significant budget gaps, but they are handling them in my view both responsibly and well. New York City, to a large degree rel... | 844 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Gramlich. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The list of indicators that are beginning to show signs of strength is long and getting longer. I won't go through all the upbeat statistics, but let me focus on two summary measures. One is what other forecasters are saying. These forecasts can be viewed as summaries of all the leading indicat... | 833 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Ferguson. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. As others have already said, the recent indicators have on balance been more positive than one might have feared at the last meeting, and they are broadly consistent with recovery starting before long. Unlike Governor Gramlich, I'm not going to put much weight on the consensus forecast because,... | 1,074 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Olson. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | Shortly after the last meeting I heard two major retail bankers--one on the East Coast at the Boston Fed board meeting and then a couple of days later one on the West Coast--describe their loan portfolios with surprising optimism, both in terms of loan performance and of loan demand. Given that so much of our focus at ... | 600 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Bies. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Many of the comments I had put together we've already focused on, but let me summarize the issues I've been looking at. First, on the inflation front--after today's numbers particularly--I continue to be quite surprised by how little evidence there is of price increases. The fact that we actually had a fall in nominal ... | 821 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you very much. Coffee is available in the next room. Shall we take a break? | 19 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Kohn. | 5 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Increasing signs of stability in demand and production lend credibility to a forecast that the economy is in the process of turning up, potentially leading to a resumption of sustained economic growth. The better news of the last few months suggests that the major forces that have been depressi... | 1,654 |
fomc | 2,002 | Are there questions for Don? | 6 |
fomc | 2,002 | Yes, I have a comment more than a question. I found chart 4 in the Bluebook on alternative strategies for monetary policy quite interesting. To me it seems to highlight the important point that inflation has gotten low enough that the particular inflation goal matters for near-term policy decisions. In addition, the in... | 116 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | Don, you referred to the framework reflected in chart 5, which depicts the current fed funds rate versus various estimates of the equilibrium real fed funds rate. I find this a useful framework even though I do have problems with the use of a lagged PCE as a proxy for inflation expectations. Nevertheless, you cited a n... | 160 |
fomc | 2,002 | I would characterize that as markets believing that the current nominal funds rate is quite stimulative and likely to result in fairly vigorous growth before too long and, therefore, they expect the funds rate to have to rise. To me that would indicate that markets are optimistic, as reflected in the yield curve and as... | 129 |
fomc | 2,002 | Okay. | 2 |
fomc | 2,002 | Further questions for Don? President Moskow. | 9 |
fomc | 2,002 | Don, also on chart 4, I was curious about the projection of the unemployment rate in the price stability scenario. I realize, obviously, that these are long-term projections, but when the forecast is run out to 2006 the unemployment rate is still significantly above the NAIRU at that point. I was just wondering how thi... | 89 |
fomc | 2,002 | I think it would be coming down over subsequent years. As we get to 2005 and 2006, the real federal funds rate is about at its equilibrium. When it's at its equilibrium, the economy should come to its equilibrium. So, convergence to the NAIRU would be occurring. It's just a question of how fast it would happen. The dyn... | 132 |
fomc | 2,002 | So it would happen but beyond the 2006 timeframe? | 12 |
fomc | 2,002 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Not to prolong this discussion too much, but following up on the last couple of commentaries, I want to raise a concern. I've never been one to think that having a number that we agree is our inflation target--or certainly that publicizing such a number--is a good thing. But I must say that these charts raise that issu... | 186 |
fomc | 2,002 | I think an interesting, almost extraordinary point here is that this Committee faces a problem that no FOMC has faced in years. What is it, nearly forty years? Many of you--and some people who aren't here and departed recently--used to say that it would take just one recession to get back to price stability. We had tha... | 192 |
fomc | 2,002 | That's exactly the point I was trying to make in saying that we need further Committee discussion of this. | 20 |
fomc | 2,002 | Maybe we ought to enjoy it instead of worrying too much about it! [Laughter] | 18 |
fomc | 2,002 | Yes, why doesn't it feel enjoyable? | 8 |
fomc | 2,002 | Well, those are your central banker credentials at work. [Laughter] | 15 |
fomc | 2,002 | Our job is to worry about everything. Good news is good and bad. | 15 |
fomc | 2,002 | Further questions for Don? If not, let me get started. I don't have much to add to what has been said, but there is an issue that I think requires some attention. Earlier today, Dave Stockton raised the question of a potential internal inconsistency in the forecast, which stipulates that profit margins will remain flat... | 1,322 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation. | 9 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you. Vice Chair. | 6 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation. Let me just add a comment since I'm supposed to know something about markets. I think that the market reaction to our going to a balanced risk statement would be formidably dangerous. And, therefore, I believe it is especially important that we follow your recommendation. | 61 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Poole. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation on the funds rate. I would have preferred a move to a balanced risks statement. Let me just comment briefly about our situation looking ahead. Taking the Greenbook forecast as a baseline--and in my view it's a very reasonable baseline--I think our policy options this year are... | 417 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | I support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman, including the balance of risks statement, although it seems to me that most of the time at the trough or very early in an expansion that's almost stating the obvious in terms of where the risks lie. Let me make a comment on one other thing. I certainly don't know how the pro... | 133 |
fomc | 2,002 | You know, if we cyclically adjust it, the 3.1 percent productivity growth figure is a rather larger number than any of us would believe. | 31 |
fomc | 2,002 | Oh, cyclically adjusted that's a remarkable number. But if we look at the Greenbook numbers going forward from this point, they are still rather modest. | 31 |
fomc | 2,002 | That's true enough. President Jordan. | 7 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you. I thought your analysis of the profit situation was very interesting, and I'd like to understand it better. So maybe in the future the staff could illustrate for us how sensitive these numbers are to changes in the assumptions about such things as productivity. I would also include an analysis of other facto... | 387 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I support both parts of your recommendation. | 12 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Gramlich. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I support both parts also. Let me say two things. On the balance of risks, if the scenario that many of us have in mind pans out, we will have a lot of time to move to change the risk statement from weighted toward weakness to balanced. I don't think we have to do it today. There's going to be time. This ... | 268 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Ferguson. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support both halves of your recommendation. I will say that, as I listened to Don Kohn's presentation, my earlier statement indicating that I could imagine even supporting a cut in the funds rate today was in some sense reinforced. I know Don was trying to give both sides of the argument. He ... | 258 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation. In my statement I talked about the risks on both sides. But I do think the two key risks, which we all talked about--capital spending and the consumer--are truly weighted to the downside. A lot can always go wrong on the consumer side. So I support both parts of the recommen... | 69 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Parry. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation with regard to the rate, and I certainly would defer to you and Vice Chairman McDonough in terms of the market effects of changing the balance of risks statement. However, it doesn't appear to me that the risks are now primarily in the direction of generating economic weaknes... | 74 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Santomero. | 5 |
fomc | 2,002 | I support your recommendation on both parts, Mr. Chairman. I believe a more measured approach to monetary policy is appropriate today. I think we should let the policy stimulus currently in the pipeline work through the economy, and in my view a pause would be a good idea. Moreover, the groundwork has already been laid... | 137 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | I fully support both parts of your recommendation, Mr. Chairman. I guess I was a bit attracted to Don's definition, if you will, of what constitutes economic weakness in the sense of excess capacity in the system. And I think that's what we are looking at. It's not that excess capacity will be increasing; obviously it ... | 138 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 2,002 | I fully support both parts of your recommendation, Mr. Chairman. If I may, I'd like to make an observation about the comments of Bob and Cathy and others regarding the longer-term simulations. I hope we don't get too uncomfortable too fast with the price stability we've spent twenty years trying to achieve. [Laughter] ... | 202 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Bies. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation. I, too, was struck by some of Don Kohn's comments on definitions of weakness. I hope there is some way that we can signal that we're talking about growth in the economy being significantly below what we consider to be its potential. I don't want people to infer from the risk... | 105 |
fomc | 2,002 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 2,002 | I support your recommendation. I support the part on the no change in the rate enthusiastically but on the bias somewhat reluctantly. It is literally true, as you pointed out in the first half of your discussion, that the balance of risks is more toward weakness than inflation. And that is the other side of the coin. B... | 188 |
fomc | 2,002 | We're already there! [Laughter] | 8 |
fomc | 2,002 | So I continue to hope that someday we'll be able to get off that tiger. | 16 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Olson. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | I support the recommendation, both parts. | 8 |
fomc | 2,002 | A majority of the voting members appear to be in favor of holding the rate where it is and maintaining the balance of risks toward weakness. Would you read the appropriate directive language? | 35 |
fomc | 2,002 | This is from page 13 in the Bluebook: "The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its long-run objectives, the Committee in the immediate future seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with mainta... | 128 |
fomc | 2,002 | Call the roll. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Chairman Greenspan Yes Vice Chairman McDonough Yes Governor Bies Yes Governor Ferguson Yes Governor Gramlich Yes President Jordan Yes President McTeer Yes Governor Olson Yes President Santomero Yes President Stern Yes | 41 |
fomc | 2,002 | Would you circulate the draft statement? [Pause] Comments? President Poole. | 16 |
fomc | 2,002 | I would suggest that we change "business spending" to "business fixed investment" since we've agreed that the inventory part of spending might be dramatically in the other direction. | 33 |
fomc | 2,002 | That's an excellent suggestion. Can we do that? Let's write in "business fixed investment." | 18 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I don't have any big ax to grind, but my view is that the average American thinks of "business spending" as business spending and that "business fixed investment" is more the jargon of economists and market types. I think the term "business spending" actually is better at explaining to real people what we... | 78 |
fomc | 2,002 | That's fine. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | In other words, "household and business capital spending"? | 12 |
fomc | 2,002 | Yes, something like that. | 6 |
fomc | 2,002 | Is that acceptable to you? | 6 |
fomc | 2,002 | Sure. | 2 |
fomc | 2,002 | Does anybody else have any comments? If not, I'll assume that is acceptable. Now we have the final item on our agenda, and I will turn the floor over to Governor Ferguson to lead the discussion. | 41 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you very much. This item involves another step on our journey toward greater transparency, which we started several years ago. The issues were raised in a memo that was distributed dated January 22. I'd like to put to the Committee three questions, which are interrelated. One is, Should we disclose the existence ... | 753 |
fomc | 2,002 | May I interrupt for just a second? | 8 |
fomc | 2,002 | Sure. | 2 |
fomc | 2,002 | I think you ought to point out that our General Counsel thinks our legal requirement to release this information is unambiguous. | 24 |
fomc | 2,002 | Yes, he does. I'm looking to see if Virgil Mattingly is here. SEVERAL. He's behind you. | 26 |
fomc | 2,002 | Yes, that's the reason I raised the point. Virgil has told me that currently the situation is as follows: The first time someone asks for this information, the press officer could say that a FOIA request would have to be filed. But the second time anyone asks the question directly, we would be obliged to release the in... | 88 |
fomc | 2,002 | Why is that? Why would we be obliged to release it immediately at the time of the second request? | 21 |
fomc | 2,002 | Virgil, will you speak to that? | 9 |
fomc | 2,002 | There is a provision in FOIA that once an agency has disclosed a particular kind of information then that information has to be made available to the public immediately upon request. | 33 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thereafter. | 3 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.