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fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, I think we were the most pessimistic last month on the outlook. | 18 |
fomc | 1,978 | You may lose your position this time. | 8 |
fomc | 1,978 | And we still retain that position. The evidence of the past month of a leveling off of retail sales, and very poor new orders figures--particularly for capital goods, which I thought were very disappointing--lead us to still think the staff projections are too optimistic as far as real growth is concerned. We would loo... | 81 |
fomc | 1,978 | Where does that take place, Frank? Do you see it being a progressive downslide? That's a very low average. If you start off with over 3 percent in the third quarter, you have to get down pretty low before you're through. | 49 |
fomc | 1,978 | I think the last half of this year is going to be somewhat less strong than the Board's staff is projecting. And we're not looking for much, if any, growth at all in the first half of next year. | 44 |
fomc | 1,978 | You're looking at a pretty low first half. Okay. | 11 |
fomc | 1,978 | The main areas of difference, I think are in consumer durable goods and housing and also state and local government. On the other hand, I'm more optimistic on prices as a consequence of this more sluggish economy. The fact is that I've noted a very tight correlation in the past few years between the rate of growth in t... | 141 |
fomc | 1,978 | I think you do win. Okay. Thank you, Frank. Phil. | 15 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, when it comes to the figures that you asked for, I'm talking in terms of real [growth] of about 3.2, an inflation rate between 8-1/4 and 8-3/4--probably centered on the high side of that--and an unemployment rate of 6 percent. I think the slackening that has occurred from the second quarter was expected a... | 231 |
fomc | 1,978 | Okay. Henry. | 4 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, just to give it a little variety, I think it's quite difficult now to be married to a single forecast. One has to ask oneself what the probabilities are of a negative growth rate sometime in 1979. | 44 |
fomc | 1,978 | You mean in some quarters? | 6 |
fomc | 1,978 | Successively, say in the first half of '79 or beginning in the second quarter and following through so that it will be classified as a recession. I would think that there are enough imbalances, even though the situation looks quite well balanced by usual standards. But there's heavy consumer credit, the creeping up on ... | 220 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you, Henry. Steve. | 7 |
fomc | 1,978 | I wasn't here last month, so I don't have to correct what I said. | 16 |
fomc | 1,978 | You have a clean slate. | 6 |
fomc | 1,978 | I don't take any exception to the general consensus including the staff's 3-1/2, 7-3/4, and 6.2 for unemployment. I've felt that this recovery is a little stronger than most of my colleagues, I think. I've always felt that. It hasn't yet disappointed me although it may be going to do so very soon. In any event, I have ... | 101 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you, Steve. Just looking down this quickly, in outline, for real GNP we seem to come out with a consensus lower than the staff's--that is, a little lower than 3-1/2 percent. Inflation looks to be maybe a little stronger than the staff projection, at 7-1/2 plus, and unemployment looks higher at a 6 percent plus fi... | 96 |
fomc | 1,978 | I thought it was interesting, Mr. Chairman, that I didn't hear anybody talking about the unemployment rate varying any more than 5-3/4 percent to 6-1/2 percent--a very narrow range. | 45 |
fomc | 1,978 | That's correct. It looks like there are not many below 6 percent, so it's a 6 plus kind of thing. Interestingly, it looks like on labor [our view] is that we're in that range and the other things are going to slow down the economy [but firms will] not discharge labor because apparently productivity is not going to [inc... | 219 |
fomc | 1,978 | [Statement--see Appendix.] | 6 |
fomc | 1,978 | Peter, it seems to me that the Committee at the last meeting gave you a very difficult assignment to operate in the intervening period. I think you've done it very credibly and I commend you for it. | 42 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you. I acknowledge Lady Luck as part of it, giving a helping hand in carrying that out, too. | 23 |
fomc | 1,978 | I didn't think you were going to be able to do it. [I don't know] whether it was luck or skill. I have to assume that it was skill, so you have my congratulations. Are there any questions or comments? A motion would be in order to ratify the transactions since the previous meeting. I believe they have been reported to ... | 75 |
fomc | 1,978 | So moved. | 3 |
fomc | 1,978 | Seconded. | 3 |
fomc | 1,978 | Any discussion? All those in favor say "aye." SEVERAL. Aye. | 18 |
fomc | 1,978 | Opposed? So voted. We will take a recess for coffee. | 14 |
fomc | 1,978 | Before we proceed, let me just mention a couple of things that have happened with the breakout of the yen. A couple weeks ago we began to look at the bag of tricks that might be examined in connection with the foreign exchange markets. I guess we had a little premonition because now the foreign exchange markets are [be... | 1,291 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. [Statement--see Appendix.] | 13 |
fomc | 1,978 | A twist. | 3 |
fomc | 1,978 | A little twist. | 4 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you, Steve. Any questions before we begin to give our personal views? | 16 |
fomc | 1,978 | What are your estimates for September M1, Steve? I missed that. | 15 |
fomc | 1,978 | For September, it's close to 8 percent--a shade over. | 14 |
fomc | 1,978 | Gentlemen, I think we might as usual call the roll--with voting members first and then the other Presidents--and ask for views. I might express a little personal statement before we start that. As you know, for some time, after substantial tightening up in the spring, I've been interested in being sure that we didn't m... | 790 |
fomc | 1,978 | Let me say, as I heard the economic forecasts around the table--and I had a much lower inflation forecast than some, although slightly higher than the staff's--that I also have some sympathy, or fear or whatever the right word is, that those with the high [inflation] forecasts are going to be the ones who are right. Ph... | 520 |
fomc | 1,978 | We should put out a press release! | 8 |
fomc | 1,978 | I would just as soon stay within it. So I was thinking actually 3 to 8 or 4 to 8 as a possibility, and I would also lower the M2 range a bit--say, 6 to 10. That's not much of a lowering but I would get it down more clearly straddling the long-term range. This one is basically above the long-term range; the midpoint's w... | 205 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you, Paul, I think. Ernie. | 11 |
fomc | 1,978 | My thought process before the discussion was similar to that Paul described, and in particular with respect to our short ranges relative to our long ranges. So the proposal I arrived at was to narrow the ranges on M1 and M2 and also on the federal funds rate. This means that by going with the narrower ranges on the agg... | 223 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you, Ernie. Phil Coldwell I believe is next. | 14 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, I came prepared to recommend almost exactly what Paul Volcker said--a 4 to 8 percent range on M1 and 6 to 10 on M2. However, I did come prepared to raise the federal funds rate range [to] 7-3/4 to 8-1/2, not 8-1/4. I think we need that margin up there in the event these aggregates do start breaking out--t... | 163 |
fomc | 1,978 | You said to an 8-- | 7 |
fomc | 1,978 | Yes, a flat 8 percent midpoint; a 7-3/4 to 8-1/2 range. | 25 |
fomc | 1,978 | We just had accounting trouble. | 6 |
fomc | 1,978 | Did you mean money market or monetary aggregates directive? | 10 |
fomc | 1,978 | If I read the directive right--the way this is written on the back of page 13--you start moving the fed funds rate on a monetary aggregates approach [if growth is] significantly above or below the midpoint and on a money market when it's close to or beyond the upper or lower limits. So I'm talking really monetary aggre... | 67 |
fomc | 1,978 | Yes, but you said money market. | 8 |
fomc | 1,978 | Sorry, I meant monetary aggregates. Sorry to have misspoken. I think it's time we cut the availability of reserves. I'm not impressed that we're making much progress in the availability; we're making some progress in terms of raising rates but I don't think that's doing the job. Consequently, I'm toying with ideas of r... | 89 |
fomc | 1,978 | Dave? | 2 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, for the last month I've been on the morning call and, up until recently, I have shared the opinion the market had, as reflected in the Wall Street Journal article this morning, that the fed funds rate had been held remarkably under control--I think because of the Desk's precision--and that the aggregates ... | 279 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you, Dave. Steve Gardner. | 8 |
fomc | 1,978 | I have no difficulty with the 5 to 9 and 6-1/2 to 10-1/2 or Paul Volcker's specification--and 7-3/4 to 8-1/4. But I am convinced that some reference to the international situation would be well advised in view of our former experience recently and in view of the great interest that has to center around the decline of t... | 106 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you, Steve. Philip Jackson. | 8 |
fomc | 1,978 | Having argued brilliantly and eloquently but unsuccessfully for raising the targets for M1 last month, I'd be satisfied with the 5 to 9. I do think we ought to increase the range very slightly on M2 but keep the same midpoints. I would argue for 6 to 11. I am concerned that if we have this [experience] we're talking ab... | 265 |
fomc | 1,978 | Some of us would have a telephone meeting. | 9 |
fomc | 1,978 | Right. | 2 |
fomc | 1,978 | Those of us who can get on it. | 9 |
fomc | 1,978 | Phil missed that experience. We lost five [of the participants on the phone call] the other day. | 21 |
fomc | 1,978 | But in short, I'd want a monetary aggregates directive and a reference to the international situation in the directive. | 21 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you. Chuck. | 5 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, I think we are reaching a fairly sensitive stage in monetary policy. I wasn't able to discern as we went around the table earlier any feeling that there is going to be an explosion of economic growth. Indeed, the average for the Committee members and the other Presidents, too, was that GNP was likely to grow less... | 90 |
fomc | 1,978 | Assuming a tightening up. | 6 |
fomc | 1,978 | And I consider that just barely acceptable. I think anything [less] is going to give us a real possibility of a stall and anything more is going to give us a very real possibility of political repercussions of a stimulative nature in the Congress. Now, there was some discussion of scarcities but it seems to me, as I sa... | 519 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you, Chuck. Henry, you didn't get [to hear] all of the discussion; perhaps you picked up most of it. Did you hear me when I gave my views? | 37 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, I'm concerned about a 5 to 9 percent M1 range; that allows for a very substantial rise in September, given what we so far know about August. I think it would allow for up to 12 percent in September and I wouldn't like to give such a signal. So my preference on the M1 range would be 4 to 8. I would move to 8 perce... | 292 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you, Henry. Mark. | 7 |
fomc | 1,978 | M1 for the last six quarters has grown at about 7.8 percent, as you suggested earlier. It seems to me that if we're to give any kind of meaningful signal to labor negotiators next year, to people concerned about the dollar internationally, and to anybody who looks at inflation and our policy responses to inflation, we ... | 540 |
fomc | 1,978 | What would you move to immediately? You have a midpoint of 8. | 15 |
fomc | 1,978 | The midpoint would be 8 and I'd have no problem moving to that. I would also agree with those who have indicated that increasing the discount rate would be a desirable thing to do. | 37 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you. Willis. | 5 |
fomc | 1,978 | Yes, Mr. Chairman, I would also be inclined to lower the ranges a bit on M1 and M2--to 3 to 8 or 4 to 8 on M1 and 6 to 10 on M2. And I'd have 7-3/4 to 8-1/4 on the funds rate, again using this as our discipline to reevaluate the situation rather than permit wider rate fluctuations. I'd also use the aggregates directive... | 108 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you, Willis. John. | 7 |
fomc | 1,978 | I find myself, Mr. Chairman, very close to the views already expressed by Messrs. Coldwell, Volcker, Wallich, and Willes, so there's no point in repeating those arguments. I am concerned about having too high an upper end on the ranges. My staff has calculated that if we were to adopt 5 to 9 and 6-1/2 to 10-1/2, during... | 279 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you, John. Bones. | 7 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, I, too, would like to see something in the range of 4 to 8, 6 to 10, 7-3/4 to 8-1/4, moving promptly to 8, and an aggregates directive. For some time I've had sympathy for a discount rate increase. [My view on that is] much stronger, realizing that with the timing, though, maybe we wouldn't be accomplishi... | 109 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you very much. Bob Mayo. | 8 |
fomc | 1,978 | I have no problem with your suggestion, Mr. Chairman, except that I, too, would move the M1 range down but only slightly. A 4-1/2 to 8-1/2 percent range would give you a 6-1/2 midpoint, which is at the upper [end] of our long-term target range. [I favor an] aggregates directive. The discount rate I think should be rais... | 195 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you, Bob. Frank Morris. | 8 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, I think the Committee is coming out just about right; a 7-3/4 to 8-1/4 range seems right. I think we can't afford another bulge in the aggregates in September, so I would agree that the ranges ought to be moved down a bit--4 to 8 and 6 to 10 I think are about right. And the discount rate, because of its h... | 101 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you, Frank. Did you have an 8 percent midpoint? | 14 |
fomc | 1,978 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,978 | Henry. | 2 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, we would agree with the prescription outlined by Mr. Mayo: 4-1/2 to 8-1/2 on M1, which would put the midpoint at the upper end of the long-term range; 6 to 10 on M2; and 7-3/4 to 8-1/4 on fed funds, moving immediately to 8 percent. | 82 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you, Henry. Don. | 7 |
fomc | 1,978 | We would generally agree with all of the sentiment, too. With the rates moving up, it's an excellent time to move down on M1 because we are getting the flak one way so let's obtain some benefit. So we would agree with the 5 to 9 and 6-1/2 to 10-1/2. On the fed funds rate 7-3/4 to 8-1/2 seems good. We would suggest mayb... | 141 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you. George. | 5 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, we are pretty much in accord with what is being recommended around the table. We came prepared to hold to alternative B: M1 at 4-1/2 to 8-1/2; M2 at 6 to 10; and the federal funds rate range [at 7-3/4] to 8-1/4 under the specification that we expect the Desk to move the rate up to the 8 percent midpoint a... | 100 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you very much. It will be very helpful if I can see where we stand. We have [by my count] nine of the voting members who have suggested a range on federal funds of 7-3/4 to 8-1/4, [though] not necessarily the same [on the] other ranges. On the M1 range, there are five who are for 4 to 8. If we take the alternativ... | 215 |
fomc | 1,978 | We're missing a couple. We are going to count again. Well, we have one 6 to 11 and one 6-1/2 to 8-1/2. The midpoint is 8 for almost everybody except two indicated they'd stay at 7-7/8 and several indicated slowness in moving [to 8 percent]. Let's see if I can formulate a consensus. I don't know if the consensus would b... | 128 |
fomc | 1,978 | No sir. | 3 |
fomc | 1,978 | Does anything here bother you? | 6 |
fomc | 1,978 | No, I'm sure you will be clarifying whatever the-- | 12 |
fomc | 1,978 | Clearly, [we'll talk about] the timing of the move--as the last order of business, I think. First we ought to decide what ranges we are going for and see what the order is of how to get there. Steve, do you have anything to add? | 56 |
fomc | 1,978 | From what you read, Mr. Chairman, it would seem like 4-1/2 to 8-1/2 and 6 to 10 would just about average through everyone's ranges for M1 and M2. | 46 |
fomc | 1,978 | I believe you've got a majority of seven of the Committee members who are saying either 8 or below as the peak for M1. | 27 |
fomc | 1,978 | Yes, but one of those would also have the bottom at 5-1/2 so you've got to be evenhanded. | 27 |
fomc | 1,978 | You've got one, two at 3-- | 9 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, let's try this for a moment: 4-1/2 to 8-1/2, 6 to 10, and 7-3/4 to 8-1/4 with the midpoint of 8 but discuss later on how we will get to 8. And there seems to be a pretty big consensus for a monetary aggregates directive. Just as a straw vote, [let's have] a show of hands of those who are voting members. How would... | 192 |
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