Source stringclasses 1
value | Date int64 1.98k 2.01k | Text stringlengths 2 27.1k | Token_count int64 1 5.57k |
|---|---|---|---|
fomc | 2,002 | It deserves a standing ovation. Brilliant! | 9 |
fomc | 2,002 | If there are no comments, I'd like to turn the floor over to Governor Ferguson who will continue our discussion on disclosure policy. | 25 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you very much. At our last meeting we had a brief and not fully conclusive discussion on the question of disclosing dissents. The issue on the table was not only a transparency issue, but perhaps more importantly it involved legal considerations. From the standpoint of legal advice it appeared that it might be ap... | 941 |
fomc | 2,002 | Well, I would make just one point. The group was in agreement and Roger summarized the issues well. But there was a question of whether the dissents would actually be put in the press release or would merely be available to those in the press who happened to ask our Public Affairs staff for that information. I think ou... | 105 |
fomc | 2,002 | I think we came out at the right place in terms of the announcement and how it would be done. The only issue that I thought might at some point be worth more discussion is when the blackout should end. There's a certain logic to having it end at the close of the day on Thursday. Having it terminate at the end of Friday... | 116 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Roger's summary was excellent. I would just add that we had a very thorough discussion of all of the options, and I think it was a consensus that this was the best route to go. | 39 |
fomc | 2,002 | I think that's true. President Poole. | 9 |
fomc | 2,002 | Yes, I think we were all in agreement that if we could sustain the current procedure indefinitely, that would be great. It works fine. But it's not up to us to make that decision. We are faced with a legal opinion here. And our small group was in agreement that it would be very unfortunate if this issue were forced upo... | 122 |
fomc | 2,002 | Okay, let's open the discussion now. I have Jerry Jordan next on my list. | 17 |
fomc | 2,002 | I would have preferred 2.B as my first option because it involves the least change and brings the least attention to the fact of a dissent. But I can live with 2.A, and maybe the reality is that that would be forced on us eventually. However, I'm not really concerned about the people who are not in the press room at th... | 76 |
fomc | 2,002 | Cathy Minehan is next on my list. | 10 |
fomc | 2,002 | Well, I'm going to tilt at windmills here. I recognize that it's tilting at windmills, but I do want to be on the record with my concerns about this. I have been in a lot of discussions about FOIA items. This is an unusual one. Usually the question is about whether or not information must be released or should be relea... | 845 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | I see where this proposal comes from, and I understand it. I have a bit of sympathy for what Cathy was saying in the sense that releasing the minutes earlier and delaying the disclosure of the vote until those minutes are released made a lot of sense to me. That's because I still believe that putting the dissents in co... | 183 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 2,002 | Well, I think both Cathy and Tom have made good points. These disclosure issues are always difficult, but it's generally helpful for me to try to get back to basics and fundamentals when I think about these issues. The way I see our actions affecting the economy, both short run and long run, is basically through the co... | 304 |
fomc | 2,002 | Okay. President Guynn. | 6 |
fomc | 2,002 | I'm comfortable with where you came out. With time to think about it, it doesn't seem terribly threatening to have the vote released. It's far better than any of the alternatives, which all seem to create another policy event of some kind. In my view, the last thing we need is another interim statement or announcement ... | 121 |
fomc | 2,002 | Okay, thanks. Governor Bies. | 8 |
fomc | 2,002 | I support the recommendation, including the fact that I think the vote should be in the announcement as opposed to just available separately. We get electronic information nowadays, and it's easier for everybody to see it at the same time and in the same document. | 49 |
fomc | 2,002 | Okay. I have nobody else who has asked to speak. I assume that means that everyone else is--I'm sorry, President Stern. | 27 |
fomc | 2,002 | Well, I can be very brief. I agree with the comments that Al and Jack made. And as far as the TV camera is concerned, I suspect the ratings would be disappointing, to say the least! [Laughter] | 46 |
fomc | 2,002 | Oh, I don't know, it depends on our star performer here. Are there any other comments? No one else came to my attention. | 28 |
fomc | 2,002 | I agree with your recommendation. | 6 |
fomc | 2,002 | Okay, thank you. I think what this means is that while there are still some concerns--and no one will soft-pedal them or ignore them--we feel almost obliged to go down this path. The second question on the table is that we have the opportunity to implement this plan today. Today may actually be a perfect time because t... | 123 |
fomc | 2,002 | Oh, Mayor Daley would have loved you! Guided democracy. | 13 |
fomc | 2,002 | I would call your attention to the last paragraph. | 10 |
fomc | 2,002 | Is that the way it will be done for the discount rate, Roger? | 15 |
fomc | 2,002 | Yes, we're going to change that, as Ned mentioned. We will conform the discount rate approach to this one. Currently the way the press announcement of a discount rate change works is that a well-informed member of the press will ask the question about the vote and the Public Affairs staff will give the answer. So we th... | 90 |
fomc | 2,002 | What if there's a dissent in this vote? [Laughter] | 13 |
fomc | 2,002 | As Cathy has already indicated, we're a mature Committee, and we will not let these decisions influence our vote on policy. Besides, the vote on the policy decision has already been taken. Are there any questions or comments? Hearing no objections, we will proceed down this path. Obviously, for this meeting after "voti... | 93 |
fomc | 2,002 | Let's just say unanimous. | 5 |
fomc | 2,002 | All right. We'll say unanimous. That's what we're going to do. Okay? Thank you very much. And thanks for your efforts on this one. | 30 |
fomc | 2,002 | Officially we have to confirm the date of the next meeting, which is Tuesday, May 7. Let's proceed to luncheon or supper or whatever you want to call it. | 35 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I've asked people to submit suggestions for discussion topics at the June meeting. I've gotten returns from about half the Reserve Bank presidents and Board members. I'll take any suggestions through the end of this week if the rest of you want to submit something or if any of you want to amend your previ... | 63 |
fomc | 2,002 | Good morning, everyone. Would somebody like to move approval of the minutes? | 15 |
fomc | 2,002 | Move approval. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | Without objection, they are approved. Dino, you're on. | 12 |
fomc | 2,002 | 1 Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I'll be referring to the charts that were just circulated. The top panel on the first page gives two snapshots of the Eurodollar deposit futures strip, as of March 19 and as of noon yesterday, representing contracts out to September 2004. The entire curve has moved sharply lower by between 50... | 2,313 |
fomc | 2,002 | You gave two reasons to be optimistic relevant to the acceleration of the monetary base in Japan. There are probably several reasons--perhaps three or four--that suggest that nothing will happen as a consequence. So, it doesn't necessarily mean that the acceleration in growth of the monetary base in and of itself is go... | 79 |
fomc | 2,002 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 2,002 | Dino, on the ten-year swap spreads on page 2, what does the spread between the AAA corporate and the ten-year Treasury swap look like? In other words, what is the AAA corporate yield minus the ten-year Treasury rate? | 48 |
fomc | 2,002 | I don't know. I haven't looked at that specifically. | 11 |
fomc | 2,002 | The reason I'm raising the question, obviously, is that I wonder if we're looking at a situation where the supply side of Treasury note issuance is raising interest rates. That, of course, is the implication of this chart as you interpret it. If that is indeed the case, you may have found the smoking gun as to the rela... | 112 |
fomc | 2,002 | Yes, I think that is worth looking into. | 10 |
fomc | 2,002 | In terms of the facts, the ten-year swap over the ten-year AAA in the latest observation is a differential of about minus 50 basis points. | 30 |
fomc | 2,002 | Oh no, it's the trend that's relevant. | 9 |
fomc | 2,002 | The trend, yes. | 5 |
fomc | 2,002 | At the time of the last meeting it was minus 30, so it has widened by 20 basis points. | 23 |
fomc | 2,002 | That's not the trend I'm referring to. I'm referring to this trend. | 14 |
fomc | 2,002 | Okay. The other point to make, just in terms of intermeeting developments, is that we haven't focused as much on the AAA rate because it has been somewhat distorted by the problems of GE. | 39 |
fomc | 2,002 | Well, then do the AA. | 7 |
fomc | 2,002 | Okay. We can do that. | 7 |
fomc | 2,002 | I was not trying to imply that this was necessarily driving interest rates. My point was that it was a factor, along with many other factors, that may have been affecting these spreads in-- | 38 |
fomc | 2,002 | I have a deep-seated bias that budget deficits do create higher interest rates. So I'm looking for any straw that you can give me. [Laughter] | 32 |
fomc | 2,002 | Well, this is one of many. But I wouldn't claim that it's the only one or even the primary one, only that it is one. | 29 |
fomc | 2,002 | Other questions? | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | Just a comment, Mr. Chairman. We run into the trap of "all other things equal" and that's so hard to figure out. | 28 |
fomc | 2,002 | To be sure. It's a tyranny, which we never seem able to overcome. No further questions? Mr. Vice Chair, would you like to move-- | 31 |
fomc | 2,002 | Move approval of the domestic operations. | 7 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you. Without objection, they are approved. We're now on the renewal of reciprocal currency arrangements with Canada and Mexico. Dino, would you outline where we are in that process and give us a short history? | 42 |
fomc | 2,002 | Sure. I think most of the people around this table will remember that last year at this time forces were aligned where there was a possibility that it might be in everybody's interest to do away with these swap lines. Among the forces that made that a possibility were the new leadership in policymaking positions in all... | 216 |
fomc | 2,002 | Questions for Dino? Are there objections to the recommendation? If none, we will proceed on the assumption of an affirmative vote. We turn now to Dave Stockton and Karen Johnson. David. | 37 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. If you've been reading the business press, watching television, or perusing market newsletters over the past seven weeks, you probably have been subjected to a fairly steady stream of downbeat news. Capital goods orders moved lower, sales of new and existing homes declined, and consumer confide... | 2,511 |
fomc | 2,002 | As we reported in the Greenbook, we have revised up slightly since March the outlook for real output growth abroad over the remainder of this year. For some of our foreign trading partners, we were reacting to the most recent evidence that had surprised us on the positive side. For others, we interpreted the changes ma... | 1,654 |
fomc | 2,002 | Do you construct a major currency forward index on the basis of the futures markets? | 16 |
fomc | 2,002 | We don't, but we could. The interest differential is available, I think, for all the pieces. We look at the forward euro, and we look at the forward yen; I think we could do that for the other major currencies. | 48 |
fomc | 2,002 | What I was thinking about is that if you're going to make a projection of an extended move in the dollar, as you say, it has to be in individual currencies. If we're coming into a period of dollar erosion, I think it probably would be useful to see what an ongoing index of that nature would look like. There are enough ... | 93 |
fomc | 2,002 | Right. | 2 |
fomc | 2,002 | So it might not be a bad idea just to keep an eye on that because if the markets begin to deteriorate, especially the forward markets, it would be useful to know where the deterioration is and where the pressures are, just sort of auditing-- | 50 |
fomc | 2,002 | But as you well know, the yen is going to be an issue because the interest differential is going to say that the market expects the yen to appreciate a lot. | 33 |
fomc | 2,002 | I'm sorry, what does the interest rate differential have to do with this calculation? | 16 |
fomc | 2,002 | I thought you asked me for forward rates. | 9 |
fomc | 2,002 | Yes, forward. This is for currencies. | 9 |
fomc | 2,002 | But there's an interest arbitrage condition. | 8 |
fomc | 2,002 | No, there's a forward market out there. | 9 |
fomc | 2,002 | But it's identical at the horizons of the interest rate differential. | 12 |
fomc | 2,002 | Only to the extent that it is fully covered. The point is that we have a futures market. | 20 |
fomc | 2,002 | We can use the futures market, yes. | 9 |
fomc | 2,002 | Well, that's what I'm talking about. I'm not talking about interest rate differentials. I'm talking about the futures market. So the interest rate differentials are automatically built in. | 35 |
fomc | 2,002 | But there's no way that the arbitrage opportunity of trading in the futures market and then long-end and short-end bonds-- | 24 |
fomc | 2,002 | No, forget arbitrage. I'm just trying to get a simple weighted average of futures prices in currencies. | 21 |
fomc | 2,002 | We'll construct one. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | It's a weighted price index. What am I missing here? | 12 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I think the evidence is that the interest arbitrage condition holds very closely for these currencies where you have free capital movements. | 28 |
fomc | 2,002 | I understand that. But that's automatically built into the forward rate. | 13 |
fomc | 2,002 | That's my point. If we know the interest differential, we know the forward rate. | 17 |
fomc | 2,002 | That's true. But if you know how to get from here to across the street directly, why would you go around the block? I don't get it. Why go through an extra calculation when you've got the number? | 43 |
fomc | 2,002 | We can take that number, but what I'm saying is that the existence of the arbitrage opportunity would lead some people to go around the block if that were profitable. So I think you can be certain-- | 41 |
fomc | 2,002 | I don't want to make a profit, I just want to see a number! [Laughter] | 20 |
fomc | 2,002 | I understand that, too. What I'm saying to you, though, is that other people do want to make a profit and therefore we can assume-- | 30 |
fomc | 2,002 | I'm not going to show them this index! [Laughter] | 13 |
fomc | 2,002 | Might I suggest that until we construct the index the Chairman wants we don't really know whether it's going to tell us very much. So why don't we construct it and see if it's useful. | 38 |
fomc | 2,002 | Yes. Basically it will pick up by implication the average interest rate differential. But the question is about converting it into individual currencies, which is what we want to find out. | 35 |
fomc | 2,002 | We will map the forward rates and future rates and look at them. | 14 |
fomc | 2,002 | I didn't think it was going to be a struggle. I thought I was asking a rhetorical question. David, I noticed that in discussing the productivity issue you raised a question about its current level. Is that related to the issue of the disruptive effect of capital expenditures on the productivity level? In other words, a... | 101 |
fomc | 2,002 | That could be one interpretation of how we got to the higher productivity level that we're showing in this forecast. What I was really referring to was an argument about whether or not the current levels of productivity that businesses have reached are sustainable just by dint of firms continuing to push their existing... | 224 |
fomc | 2,002 | We are now approximately seven months into this process. Are we getting anecdotal evidence that people are stressed, that they're working too hard? I don't see that in the newspapers. We usually pick up that kind of story. | 44 |
fomc | 2,002 | Actually, there was an article in Business Week last week on exactly that issue. There were some anecdotes in that article indicating that this was going on. Larry Slifman pointed out to me yesterday that in the Beige Book there was a report from our colleagues in Atlanta, using Home Depot as an example, that the firm ... | 120 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.