edited income-or-promises arc_position

articles.json

@@ -268,7 +268,7 @@
   "filename": "income-or-promises.md",
   "canonical_url": "https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/income-or-promises.html",
   "canonical_md": "https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/income-or-promises.md",
-  "arc_position": "Pre-registered disclosure test on Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon's July-September 2026 results, filed before the reports of 28 and 29 October. Returns the A Tale of Two Earnings method to the hyperscalers, written in the plain-language format of Follow the Money Both Ways. Meta is used for context only, as it reported before filing. Scored in a follow-up piece.",
+  "arc_position": "Pre-registered disclosure test on Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon's July-September 2026 results, filed before the reports of 28 and 29 October. Returns the A Tale of Two Earnings method to the hyperscalers, written in the plain-language format of Follow the Money Both Ways. Meta is used for context only, as it reported before filing. Scored in Income or Promises - Where the Bill Went (31 October 2026).",
   "core_claim": "The largest AI spenders now spend more cash than their businesses bring in. They cover the gap with borrowing, new shares and bills signed for years ahead, while holding growing backlogs of promised revenue, part of it from AI labs they have invested in. Five predictions and one control test whether any improvement this quarter is new income or a cost moved somewhere harder to see: Alphabet's cash, investment gains in profit, backlog concentration in Anthropic and OpenAI, Microsoft's leases not yet started, and Microsoft's finance-lease share after its change to building life.",
   "tags": ["Microsoft", "Alphabet", "Amazon", "Meta", "earnings analysis", "pre-registered prediction", "free cash flow", "capex", "leases", "backlog", "depreciation", "server lifespans", "AI infrastructure financing", "disclosure"],
   "evidence_sources": ["Meta Q3 2026 earnings release, presentation and 10-Q", "Meta 424B5 prospectus supplements Oct 2026", "Meta Q3 2022 earnings release", "Alphabet Q2 2026 earnings release and 10-Q", "Microsoft FY2026 and FY2025 10-K", "Microsoft Q3 FY2026 10-Q", "Microsoft FY2026 Q4 earnings call", "Amazon Q2 2026 earnings release", "Amazon FY2025 10-K", "Reuters on hyperscaler borrowing Oct 2026"],