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Circular economy (see page 11) |
Adjusted steel demand. |
Figure 2: steel demand outlook (million tonnes) |
Global demand is forecast to increase from 1.7 billion tonnes in 2018 to over 2.6 billion tonnes by 2050 under current consumption patterns. Yield improvements and circular economy dynamics are likely to moderate this growth. |
Transport. |
Steel use for transport will significantly increase due to economic growth in developing countries. The use of high-strength steels for lightweighting helps automakers improve vehicle emissions while maintaining safety standards. We take a neutral view on the impact of electric vehicles (EVs) on steel demand. We see significant opportunities for steel in EVs due to additional uses and recovery in traditional ones, given the cost and lifecycle CO2 advantages of steel. Growth in the automotive sector may be moderated by the emergence of automated vehicles in the long term. |
11 ARCELORMITTAL CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 1 CONTENTS PREVIOUS BACK FORWARD |
The carbon challenge for steel. |
Box 3: the role of end-of-life scrap in low-emissions steel transition. |
Global steel production will continue to rely on primary sources (iron ore) until around 2100. |
Today, most primary sources of iron (iron ore) used to make steel are processed through a blast furnace (BF) for ironmaking and subsequently through a basic oxygen furnace (BOF) for steelmaking, using coal-based products such as pulverised coal and coke as energy inputs to reduce the iron ore. To a lesser extent, steel from iron ore is also produced via the direct reduced iron (DRI) process using natural gas or gasified coal. Although both these routes partially add scrap to make steel, most scrap used globally is processed into steel directly through an electric arc furnace (EAF), using electricity as the main energy input (see annex 1). |
Scrap used in steelmaking comes from two different sources: • Pre-consumer scrap, arising from yield losses in iron and steelmaking and manufacturing of steel-based products. • End-of-life scrap, arising from the recovery of steel-based products at the end of their operational life, typically 10-50 years or more after production, depending upon application. As a result, the availability of end-of-life scrap lags steel demand by several decades. |
Although the availability of end-of-life scrap is forecast to grow (see graph below), global steel demand growth means end-of-life scrap will meet less than 50% of steel needs by 2050. As living standards improve and infrastructure across the globe matures, demand for steel will eventually plateau. After that, enough end-of-life scrap will be available to meet the bulk of steel demand, leading to a fully circular steel value chain. Since this transition is unlikely to become reality much before the end of the century, iron and steelmaking from iron ore will continue to play an important role in meeting global steel demand well beyond 2050. |
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 3,000 2,500 1990 2050 2040 2030 2020 2010 2000 1995 2045 2035 2025 2015 2005. |
End-of-life scrap. |
Business as usual – BAU. |
Iron ore. |
Steel demand outlook (million tonnes) |
End-of-life scrap. |
Iron ore. |
DRI-EAF. |
EAF. |
Steel. |
Global steelmaking by (1) production route, (2) metallic input, (3) source of iron. |
Scrap. |
DRI. |
BF-BOF. |
Pig iron 1 |
2 3. |
Source: ArcelorMittal Corporate Strategy 12 ARCELORMITTAL CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 1 CONTENTS PREVIOUS BACK FORWARD |
Figure 2: Indicative CO2 emissions outlook for steel 9 World Steel Association (2019), Steel’s Contribution to a Low Carbon Future and Climate Resilient Societies. |
Business as usual (BAU) |
This projection of CO2 emissions shown in figure 2 below is based on the BAU steel demand outlook, which includes the increasing volumes of end-of-life scrap forecast shown in box 3 on page 12. |
Steelmaking yield improvement. |
Continued improvements in the steel supply chain, particularly through the digital revolution and evolving manufacturing technologies, will drive continued yield improvement from crude steel production to final steel in products, equipment, buildings and infrastructure. This will reduce the amount of steel production needed for the same products, equipment, building and infrastructure under a BAU scenario. |
Circular economy. |
Products, equipment, buildings and infrastructure designed to use less steel will all moderate the growth rate of steel demand compared to a BAU scenario. The transition to a circular economy – with new business models focused on greater sharing of our material world (homes, cars, etc.), extended product longevity and reuse at end of life – will also reduce demand for steel compared to a BAU scenario. |
Energy efficiency. |
Over the last 50 years, the steel industry has reduced its energy consumption per tonne of steel by 61%.9 A recent World Steel Association study shows potential for a further 15-20% reduction in energy intensity. |
Adoption of low-emissions technologies. |
Steel production will continue to depend on primary sources (iron ore) to meet future demand, as shown in figure 4. To achieve the Paris Agreement objectives, this primary steel production will have to transition to low-emissions technologies for iron ore reduction. This will entail a transition to low-emissions energy sources through a combination of use of clean power, circular carbon (see box 4 on page 15), and continued use of fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage. Detailed descriptions of low-emissions technology pathways for the steel industry are given in chapter 4, and ArcelorMittal’s innovation programme to demonstrate such technologies is described in chapter 5. |
2050 2040 2030 2020 2045 2035 2025. |
Energy efficiency. |
Business as usual – BAU. |
Yield improvement. |
Circular economy. |
Adoption of low-emissions technologies. |
Remaining CO2. |
Meeting the carbon challenge for steel will require continued energy and yield improvements, a shift to a circular economy, and the adoption of low-emissions technologies. |
13 ARCELORMITTAL CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 1 CONTENTS PREVIOUS BACK FORWARD |
4 Low-emissions technology pathways and policy scenarios. |
Low-emissions steelmaking will be achieved through the use of a combination of clean power, circular carbon, and fossil fuels with capture and storage (CCS). |
Future energy inputs for primary steelmaking. |
The steel industry has made significant improvements in energy and yield efficiency, reducing the emissions intensity of steel production during recent decades. Further technological innovation should lead to continued reductions in emissions intensity over the next decade. |
However, to accelerate emissions reduction and align with the demanding objectives of the Paris Agreement, the steel industry will have to transition to one or more low-emissions technology pathways. These are illustrated on pages 14-15. They include transitioning to new energy inputs in the form of a) clean power, b) circular carbon and c) fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage. |
a) Clean power used as the energy source for hydrogen-based ironmaking, and longer term for direct electrolysis ironmaking, and also contributing to other low-emissions technologies. |
b) Circular carbon energy sources including bio-based and plastic wastes from municipal and industrial sources and agricultural and forestry residues (see box 4). |
c) Fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage (CCS) enabling the continued use of the existing iron and steelmaking processes while transforming them to a low-emissions pathway. This shift would require national and regional policies to create the necessary large-scale infrastructure network for the transport and storage of CO2. |
14 ARCELORMITTAL CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 1 CONTENTS PREVIOUS BACK FORWARD |
Circular Carbon. |
Low-emissions steelmaking. |
Fossil Fuels with CCS Clean Power. |
Box 4: the importance of circular carbon. |
While climate change needs to tackle the increased concentration of carbon-based gases in our atmosphere, carbon is and will remain an essential building block of nature and our material world. Circular carbon treats carbon as a renewable resource that can be reused indefinitely. |
Today over half of the renewable energy used in Europe already comes from circular carbon in the form of renewable biomass and bio-waste. Increased use of renewable biomass globally is also a critical enabler to three of the four IPCC pathways to 1.5ºC in their latest report.10. |
More of society’s waste – including construction wood, agricultural and forestry residues, and plastic waste – can potentially be used sustainably as a valuable source of circular carbon. The steel sector has the potential to be one of the most efficient users of the limited quantity of circular carbon available in society. |
Furthermore, the carbon gases that result from iron and steelmaking with circular carbon can be captured and converted into recyclable products. At the end of their use, these products will themselves become sources of circular carbon, closing the loop and creating an endless cycle of carbon. |
10 IPCC (2018), Summary for Policy Makers 15 ARCELORMITTAL CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 1 CONTENTS PREVIOUS BACK FORWARD |
Box 5: possible low-emissions technology pathways using different energy sources. |
All technology pathways to low-emissions steelmaking entail higher costs and require time, investment and clean energy infrastructure. |
Energy sources Low-emissions steelmaking technology pathways. |
Iron electrolysis. |
Develop iron ore electrolysis from clean electricity. |
Green hydrogen DRI. |
Develop hydrogen-based DRI production from clean electricity. |
Smart carbon. |
Produce steel with circular carbon and hydrogen, and manufacture carbon-based products from waste gases. |
Blue hydrogen DRI. |
Develop hydrogen-based DRI production from reformed natural gas. |
DRI with carbon capture. |
Use existing technology incorporating carbon capture and storage. |
Blast furnace with carbon capture. |
Use existing technology incorporating carbon capture and storage. |
A successful transition to low-emissions steelmaking will require policies that offset higher costs, provide access to sufficient clean energy and financial support to accelerate technology innovation. |
• National and regional policies regarding energy infrastructure and allocation by sector. These may affect the availability of green and blue hydrogen, circular carbon (bio-waste, waste plastic, and agricultural and forestry residues), and large-scale carbon transport and storage infrastructure. |
Low-emissions technology pathways and policy scenarios. |
Policy needs. |
The viability of different low-emissions steel technology pathways at each steelmaking site is likely to differ by region, depending on three aspects of policy: • Policies to ensure steelmakers compete on a level playing field. Where carbon policy drives steelmakers to adopt low-emissions technologies, involving structurally higher operating costs, mechanisms such as a green border adjustment enable steel from these producers to compete fairly with imports from higher emitting steelmakers. |
H2 CO. |
H2. |
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