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Physical Risks and Opportunities
The photos show catastrophic wind damage to the Tatton Substation in Texas from Hurricane Harvey.
65 AEP’s Climate Impact Analysis made landfall near Corpus Christi, Texas, in AEP Texas’s service territory. More recently, Hurricane Hanna was AEP Texas’s biggest weather-related outage event since Hurricane Harvey. Hanna made landfall in Padre Island in July 2020. This storm caused damage in Deep South Texas and left over 200,000 customers without power.
As part of this risk assessment initiative, AEP identified seven buildings that could be at risk for storm surge inundation made worse by sea level rise. While seven of 35 facilities in the coastal area have already been hardened for wind damage, our review revealed they remain at risk for flooding.
The potential business impacts from catastrophic flooding in this region include loss of facilities and access roads, increased need for building resiliency and backup power and the need to locate new facilities at higher elevations to protect them from high water. This analysis provided greater clarity on which facilities are operationally critical and may require further actions to protect them.
Hurricane Harvey: Impacts and Adaptation.
Hurricane Harvey hit the Middle Texas Coast in August 2017 as a Category 4 hurricane, making landfall in Rockport, Texas — just 30 miles from the AEP Texas home office in Corpus Christi. With sustained winds of 130 miles per hour (mph) and gusts up to 145 mph, the National Weather Service (NWS) issued a rare Extreme Wind Warning, reserved for hurricanes with winds of 115 mph or higher.
Storm surge reached more than 12 feet above ground level at the Aransas Wildlife Refuge. Severe flooding from storm surge and unprecedented torrential rain — as much as 40 inches in less than 48 hours in Southeast Texas — made the storm one of the most significant tropical cyclone rainfall events in U.S. history. While the major story of Hurricane Harvey was the rainfall, at its peak the.
National Weather Service (NWS) Map.
Hurricane Harvey hit the Middle Texas Coast in August 2017 as a.
Category 4 hurricane.
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storm also cut power to 220,000 AEP Texas customers after winds knocked down or broke more than 5,000 distribution poles, damaged over 500 transmission structures and destroyed the Aransas Pass Distribution Center. The storm caused approximately $415 million in transmission and distribution-related damage and prompted a review of and modifications to planning criteria and design standards as the system was rebuilt.
AEP Texas initiated a long-term program to harden the distribution system to reduce outages and minimize future tropical cyclone damage. Hardening refers to physically changing the infrastructure so that it is less susceptible to damage from extreme wind, flooding or flying debris. This included the development of a Storm Outage Prediction Model to help predict and prepare for weather-related impacts to the transmission and distribution grid (see sidebar on page 71).
In 2010, the Public Utilities Commission of Texas adopted the Electric Utility Infrastructure Storm Hardening rule, requiring that storm hardening reports be filed with the Commission every five years. In its report, AEP Texas details specific actions being taken to strengthen the distribution and transmission system to withstand extreme weather conditions and to minimize customer outage time. Actions could include elevating substations above flood plains, deploying sensors and control technology, strengthening poles with guy wires, managing vegetation, and relocating facilities.
AEP designs, builds and maintains transmission and distribution facilities to meet and/or exceed the current National Electrical Safety Code (NESC) and American National Standard Institute (ANSI) standards for the region. For example, NESC Extreme Wind Loading criteria are from 130 mph to 140 mph; AEP Texas designs distribution lines to withstand wind loading of 150 mph.
We also continuously look at risk mitigation strategies using GIS to overlay our facilities (existing and new) on known flood plains so that we can see where there might be greater risk to physical assets.
AEP’s new advanced Underground Network Monitoring (UNM) system provided added protection during Hurricane Harvey, enabling real-time monitoring to troubleshoot problems with and determine the status of network equipment. As the hurricane approached the Texas coast, AEP Texas relied on the system to help ensure critical equipment on the grid was working normally; in addition, the network’s high water alarms alerted crews about which underground vaults had filled with water from the storm. The underground network monitoring system enhances operational capability, increases situational awareness, and decreases risk.
With sustained winds of 130 miles per hour (mph) and gusts up to 145 mph, the National Weather Service (NWS) issued a rare Extreme Wind Warning, reserved for hurricanes with winds of 115 mph or higher.
66 AEP’s Climate Impact Analysis.
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67 AEP’s Climate Impact Analysis by higher ambient temperatures affect water sources used in power production. Most importantly, extreme hot temperatures increase heat stress for employees, raising the risk of heat-related illnesses and the need for changes in workflow, such as working at night versus during the heat of the day.
Ambient temperature swings in the winter present different challenges. Warmer winter temperatures in the Great Lakes region, for example, mean less ice coverage on Lake Michigan. This could cause lake-effect cloud cover, diminishing solar generation output in the region. Warmer temperatures also reduce demand for electricity for winter heating, affecting revenues. When temperatures are extremely cold, as we saw in the 2013 – 2014 winter and most recently in Texas in February.
Heat Index Guide*
Heat Index Risk Level Protection.
Less than 91° Lower Basic Heat Safety 91° – 103° Moderate Use Precautions and Awareness 103° – 115° High Use Additional Precautions.
Greater than 115° Extreme Aggressive Precautions * The Heat Index and temperature are not the only indicators of when heat illness can happen. Every body responds differently to heat.
Climate change impacts people, as well as infrastructure.
TEMPERATURE IMPACTS.
One of the most direct and transparent impacts of climate change is the change in observed temperature. These changes could present as either higher variability in observed temperatures on a local or regional level, or in general directional shifts from present-day temperatures. The impacts of both scenarios have to be considered for their potential impacts on the grid.
Increased temperatures could increase cooling load (a revenue opportunity) and decrease heating load (a revenue risk). A large portion of AEP’s electric load is currently dedicated to heating and cooling buildings. In 2019, heating demand represented 4.9% of AEP’s load and cooling demand represented 8.5% of AEP’s load (total retail sales). Forecasted load growth tied directly to temperature increases across AEP’s service territory are expected to be modest compared with forecasted load growth due to economic or policy activities related to climate change, such as electrification.
When extreme heat occurs, the physical toll affects people, the environment and equipment. Higher ambient temperatures decrease the efficiency of the grid by pushing electric equipment, such as transformers and conductors, closer to their maximum allowable operating temperatures. When that happens, we have to reduce capacity to cool the equipment, increasing the probability of system congestion. If these adjustments are not made, equipment can overheat and fail.
Higher temperatures also increase surface evaporation on rivers and lakes where hydro plants operate, reducing power output of this clean resource. And critical equipment such as conductors, transformers, batteries, system monitoring equipment and solar inverters could be pushed beyond their maximum operability ratings. Higher temperatures could also shorten the lifespans of critical parts, risking equipment loss, an outage or reduced output. Increased water temperatures caused.
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68 AEP’s Climate Impact Analysis 2021 (commonly referred to as the “polar vortex”), equipment can freeze, fuel supplies can be disrupted and output can be reduced when it is needed most. The human toll from extreme events can also be significant.
WATER TEMPERATURES.
Indiana Michigan Power Company’s Donald C. Cook Nuclear Power Plant relies on water from Lake Michigan for cooling. The safety systems at the Cook Plant in Bridgman, Michigan, were designed and built in accordance with federal regulatory requirements to withstand extremes in weather and natural hazards. This includes flooding, tornados, earthquakes, temperature extremes, local intense precipitation and a seiche (a very large wave on an enclosed body of water) in Lake Michigan.
The original design of the Cook Plant incorporated a maximum lake water temperature of 76° F. While we have seen increasing water temperatures from Lake Michigan during the past decade, the plant has taken proactive measures to ensure its cooling systems can operate independently of the lake through a modification to an internal cooling system. In addition, the plant upgraded the ice condenser unit, improving our ability to maintain cooling conditions required for normal operations. Similarly, the Cook Plant has upgraded cooling systems for other plant equipment (e.g., main transformers, containment building, etc.). These measures have effectively mitigated the impact of increasing water temperature, enabling sustained normal and safe operations.
For thermal generating units, colder cooling water is more effective in the efficient generation of electricity. When water is too warm for power plant cooling, it decreases plant efficiency, making plants less economical to operate. In once-through cooling systems, the water heats up and is warmer than the source water, where it is returned. Absent proper management and remediation, these discharges could have ecological impacts, including harming aquatic life and impacting local ecosystems.
The Donald C. Cook Nuclear Power Plant, on the shores of Lake Michigan, has upgraded its cooling systems to mitigate rising water temperatures from the lake.
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EXTREME WEATHER.
Extreme weather can take many forms including severe thunderstorms (tornados, damaging winds, and lightning), wind storms, ice storms, snow storms, heat waves and cold snaps. Although some of these events have not been directly linked to climate change, the frequency and magnitude of these events is subject to change along with a changing climate. The biggest risk to operations from extreme weather is typically exposed infrastructure, such as transmission and distribution structures. As we shift to more renewable resources, they also become more vulnerable to weather extremes. High winds from severe storms can topple structures or blow debris into energized equipment, leading to outages. Tornados and derechos can damage or destroy distribution and transmission facilities, including buildings.
Public Service Company of Oklahoma is no stranger to weather extremes and natural events — but 2019 was exceptional. In May 2019, Oklahoma was battered by a series of severe weather events — from heavy rain, high winds, hail and major flooding to more than 60 tornados and a 4.5 magnitude earthquake. Floodwaters surrounded the Tulsa North Substation (a major substation for the Tulsa area). Flooding also threatened to cut off access to Tulsa Power Station and Riverside Power Station as the Arkansas River spilled its banks and a nearby dam spillway was opened to try to minimize flooding. In addition, straight line winds and a tornado knocked down a 138-kV transmission line in a neighborhood in Broken Arrow, a suburb of Tulsa. Together, these severe events caused significant and costly property damage and disrupted electric service to thousands of PSO customers. As the climate changes, the risk of more of these types of intense weather events could potentially grow.
Lightning can present a significant challenge for the electric power grid. When lightning strikes, it can ignite forest fires, damage electrical infrastructure, and cause many other forms of loss and damage. The transmission system can withstand some disruptions caused by 69 AEP’s Climate Impact Analysis lightning, but more severe lightning strikes can damage equipment, including knocking critical circuits offline.
When lightning strikes the transmission grid, it can cause momentary outages of a half-second or less, or it can cause damage that results in a prolonged outage. Some customers, particularly industrial and manufacturing customers, are sensitive to any lapse in power because it can take their production lines down. Lightning can also knock out power on the distribution grid with damaged transformers and other equipment and affect operation of wind farms.
A tornado over Tulsa, Oklahoma, in May 2019.
Tulsa Power Station, as seen from across the flooded Arkansas River. PSO’s.
Riverside Power Plant, which is further south, also was threatened by flooding.
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70 AEP’s Climate Impact Analysis.
EXTREME WEATHER AND RENEWABLES.
Climate change is often framed in terms of temperature change. But it is more often the extreme weather events that have the greatest impact. As renewable energy, such as solar and wind, will play a larger role in meeting our customers’ energy demands, its weather dependent variability can challenge reliability and a stable energy supply. There are not clear predictions of how wind speeds and solar irradiance will change as a result of climate change, but it is important to consider different possibilities since renewable resources will be integral to our future energy supply and a key solution to addressing climate change.
A small change in wind speed can have a substantial impact on the production of electricity from wind turbines. Wind energy production is also, to a lesser extent, a function of air density, which helps to spin the turbine blades. As temperatures increase, air density decreases, having a negative effect on wind energy production, which will need to be accounted for in the quantifying of the wind resource for a geographical region.
Solar photovoltaic installations directly convert sunlight into electricity. For these facilities, the amount of energy produced is a product of solar irradiance — how much sunlight shines onto the solar panels. This can be diminished by precipitation and cloud cover and, in turn, affect energy output. Extreme heat can also affect energy output.
As construction of solar farms becomes more common in areas with colder climates, impacts from snow or ice covering solar panels and reducing their ability to collect sunlight should be considered. Conversely, warmer winters could mean less freezing precipitation, enabling additional solar output. If warmer winters lead to less ice coverage (which is a barrier to evaporation) on the Great Lakes, cloud cover could increase in areas downwind of the lake, particularly over solar farms in I&M Power’s service territory.
AEP Energy’s OnSite Partners sees snow cover loss in the range of 2% to 10% per year at customer-sited solar facilities. Snow loss is often modeled in production forecasts being developed for new projects, but actual results can vary widely. In a mild year, we can see virtually no snow loss, while a cold, snowy winter will far exceed forecasts.
Similar to traditional generation facilities, wind and solar are subject to damage from severe weather occurrences. Hail has the ability to damage wind turbine blades and solar panels. Likewise, both types of facilities are vulnerable to damage from lightning and extreme wind. Significant damage to turbine blades from lightning is a common occurrence at facilities where lightning storms regularly occur. In addition, extreme cold periods can affect performance and durability of wind turbine blades (caused by icing on the blades). AEP continues to rely on the best available information to aid in the planning and operation of these facilities and will continue to monitor trends to adapt to changing conditions as needed.
In 2018, AEP Renewables completed a major project to repower or replace 207 wind turbines at Desert Sky and Trent Mesa wind farms in west Texas.
The project increased generating capacity of these facilities to 322.4 MW, up from 310.5 MW. More importantly, the repower increased production by 20%. The photo shows a completed wind turbine at Trent Mesa.
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71 AEP’s Climate Impact Analysis.
This map shows the SOPM’s 75th percentile estimate of customers interrupted by Hurricane Hanna. The model correctly predicted that the largest number of customer outages would occur in the Rio Grande Valley.
District located at the southern tip of Texas.
Storm Outage Prediction Model.
We wanted a tool to help us enhance our ability to assess and predict customer outages and damage caused by severe weather. Understanding the potential for and impacts of extreme weather is important because it helps us manage risks more effectively. Knowing when and where these events will occur, their duration and their likely impacts to customer service is critical to being ready to restore power when the storm passes. This is especially important as our transmission and distribution system grows, and we continue to invest significantly in system hardening and vegetation management, which can change how the system is affected by the weather. The system is becoming more dynamic and complex, and customer expectations for reliable power are increasing.
Using artificial intelligence (AI) technology and historical internal data, we collaborated with The Ohio State University and the University of Michigan to develop a Storm Outage Prediction Model (SOPM). The tool provides decision-makers additional data and, when coupled with AEP Meteorology weather alerts, enables our companies to make more informed decisions around pre-storm preparations and post-storm restoration. With the predicted number of affected customers and the predicted equipment damage, we can be more confident in the number of resources and equipment requested. The result is increased potential to shorten restoration times for impacted customers — leading to a better overall customer experience.
The SOPM was developed using storm outage data from the previous eight years, starting with the 2012 derecho that caused massive damage in AEP’s eastern service territory. The model is regularly populated with data from current events, including information about vegetation, weather, damaged equipment, number of damage locations and customers interrupted. The populated weather data includes rainfall amounts, temperatures, soil moisture, wind speeds, snow amounts and thunderstorm activity.
We began using the SOPM in 2020 with the forecast of Hurricane Hanna, which made landfall in July as a Category 1 hurricane on Padre Island in the AEP Texas service territory. The model predicted that as many as 238,000 customers were at risk of losing power. When the storm was over, more than 200,000 customers had actually lost power — proving the model provides valuable information in preparing for a hurricane.
Hurricane Hanna Customer Interruptions Map.
The SOPM results are one of many variables considered when preparing for a significant weather event. Of course, the model results are only as good as the weather forecast information data that is provided. Hurricanes, derechos, severe thunderstorms and ice accumulations are difficult to confidently forecast in advance. We continue to work with our academic partners to sustain the model and improve its results.
SWEPCO crews work as quickly and as safely as possible after major storms to assess damage, repair transmission lines and restore power to critical community services such as hospitals, nursing homes and police and fire stations.
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72 AEP’s Climate Impact Analysis.
CLIMATE-RELATED ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS.
Climate change, with its many direct and indirect effects, is ranked as the third-leading driver of species extinction, according to the Inter-Governmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. As climate change impacts increase, there is a high likelihood more species will be listed under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 (ESA). This is important to AEP’s growth strategy, which includes new construction and rebuilding of transmission lines and substations and building and operating of new renewable projects across the U.S. in our regulated and competitive businesses.
Habitat Conservation Plans (HCPs) play a critical role in preventing species extinctions through anticipating impacts to listed species. An HCP ensures that any impacts are minimized and mitigated, most often by conserving habitat. HCPs are approved by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) under the ESA.