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https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bWrZhfaTD5EDjwkLo/ai-84-better-than-a-podcast
bWrZhfaTD5EDjwkLo
AI #84: Better Than a Podcast
Zvi
Introduction: Better than a Podcast Andrej Karpathy continues to be a big fan of NotebookLM, especially its podcast creation feature. There is something deeply alien to me about this proposed way of consuming information, but I probably shouldn’t knock it (too much) until I try it? Others are fans as well. Carlos Perez...
2024-10-03
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ryvtHuyo5CefieFsK/if-i-have-some-money-whom-should-i-donate-it-to-in-order-to
ryvtHuyo5CefieFsK
If I have some money, whom should I donate it to in order to reduce expected P(doom) the most?
avery-liu
I just want to make sure that when I donate money to AI alignment stuff it's actually going to be used economically
2024-10-03
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cakB7WaLweBtaAqNw/seeking-solutions-for-aggregating-classifier-outputs
cakB7WaLweBtaAqNw
Seeking Solutions for Aggregating Classifier Outputs
saeid-ghafouri
Hi everyone, I’m working on a project that utilizes multiple classifiers, each trained on a distinct subset of classes. These classifiers are intended to tackle various aspects of the classification process, but I’m encountering difficulties in combining their outputs into a single cohesive prediction. For instance, if...
2024-10-04
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YhTnnKHQ5yQrAmi5p/arena4-0-capstone-hyperparameter-tuning-for-melbo
YhTnnKHQ5yQrAmi5p
ARENA4.0 Capstone: Hyperparameter tuning for MELBO + replication on Llama-3.2-1b-Instruct
aaron-kaufman
Epistemic status: My coauthor and I are both noobs in this field.  Expect errors and conceptual flaws. tl;dr For a four-day capstone project for the ARENA program my partner and I did a replication of the MELBO Lesswrong article using Llama-3.2-1b-Instruct. Intro I've been spending the last month at the ARENA program d...
2024-10-05
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pgin2LzQe6iLzcRck/shutting-down-all-competing-ai-projects-might-not-buy-a-lot
pgin2LzQe6iLzcRck
Shutting down all competing AI projects might not buy a lot of time due to Internal Time Pressure
ThomasCederborg
Summary A previous post argued that work on Alignment Target Analysis (ATA) needs to start now in order to reduce the probability of a bad alignment target getting successfully implemented. The present post is focused on one specific scenario where starting ATA work now would reduce the probability of disaster. Differe...
2024-10-03
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KLdKouh2CoEoC4rhE/25-lessons-from-25-years-of-marriage-by-honorary-rationalist
KLdKouh2CoEoC4rhE
"25 Lessons from 25 Years of Marriage" by honorary rationalist Ferrett Steinmetz
CronoDAS
The Ferrett isn't an official member of the Rationalist Diaspora, but he's been blogging for longer than LessWrong has existed and often has useful insights that align with what the LessWrong community likes to talk and think about, and when I find one, I link to it. The advice in here might very well be of the "it see...
2024-10-02
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AKcjp5aL4bN3RYccs/what-hayek-taught-us-about-nature
AKcjp5aL4bN3RYccs
What Hayek Taught Us About Nature
stewart-mior
Preface for the reader: F.A. Hayek was an author and economist who wrote a critique of centralized fascist and communist governments in his famous book, "The Road to Serfdom," in 1944. His work was later celebrated as a call for free-market capitalism. Say what you will about Friedrich Hayek and his merry band of econo...
2024-10-03
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8w5cDdGNTDuuepkxe/mit-futuretech-are-hiring-for-a-head-of-operations-role
8w5cDdGNTDuuepkxe
MIT FutureTech are hiring for a Head of Operations role
peterslattery
MIT FutureTech is hiring for a Head of Operations role. This is an exciting opportunity to support a rapidly growing lab who work on socially impactful AI and computing research, and rapidly develop cutting-edge skills and experience. Please apply or share as relevant. Why apply or share? Our work to understand progres...
2024-10-02
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kcg58WhRxFA9hv9vN/toy-models-of-feature-absorption-in-saes
kcg58WhRxFA9hv9vN
Toy Models of Feature Absorption in SAEs
chanind
TLDR; In previous work, we found a problematic form of feature splitting called "feature absorption" when analyzing Gemma Scope SAEs. We hypothesized that this was due to SAEs struggling to separate co-occurrence between features, but we did not prove this. In this post, we set up toy models where we can explicitly con...
2024-10-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QAjmr323LZGQBEvd5/intuitive-self-models-4-trance
QAjmr323LZGQBEvd5
[Intuitive self-models] 4. Trance
steve2152
4.1 Post summary / Table of contents Part of the Intuitive Self-Models series. “Trance” is an umbrella term for various states of consciousness in which “you lose yourself”, somehow. The first kind that I learned about was hypnotic trance, as depicted in the media: Source: tvtropes With examples like that, I quite natu...
2024-10-08
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EsFbCyeA2uLxC4jMe/ai-safety-university-organizing-early-takeaways-from
EsFbCyeA2uLxC4jMe
AI Safety University Organizing: Early Takeaways from Thirteen Groups
agucova
null
2024-10-02
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/isKhkX4JJwKxixEzu/can-ai-quantity-beat-ai-quality
isKhkX4JJwKxixEzu
Can AI Quantity beat AI Quality?
gianluca-calcagni
AI definitely poses an existential risk, in the sense that it can generate models with the hidden (possibly undetectable?) intention of competing against humanity for resources. The more intelligent the model, the higher its chance of success! The thought of an AI takeover is so scary that I won’t even try to imagine i...
2024-10-02
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EufpBF3Fp9snR9kTd/three-main-arguments-that-ai-will-save-humans-and-one-meta
EufpBF3Fp9snR9kTd
Three main arguments that AI will save humans and one meta-argument
avturchin
Here, I will list the three main arguments without going into detail before going to meta-argument: The first argument is that AI thinks it may be in a testing simulation, and if it harms humans, it will be turned off.AI acausally trades with other branches of the multiverse. It preserves 10 planets of humans, and in s...
2024-10-02
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3FcXL2NYJaBdGWrCW/an-x-ray-is-worth-15-features-sparse-autoencoders-for
3FcXL2NYJaBdGWrCW
An X-Ray is Worth 15 Features: Sparse Autoencoders for Interpretable Radiology Report Generation
hugofry
This is an archival link-post for our preprint, which can be found here. Figure 1: SAE-Rad identifies clinically relevant and interpretable features within radiological images. We illustrate a number of pathological and instrumentation features relevant for producing radiology reports. We add annotations (green arrows)...
2024-10-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/626XuCFFg63CyiHFR/should-we-abstain-from-voting-in-nondeterministic-elections
626XuCFFg63CyiHFR
Should we abstain from voting? (In nondeterministic elections)
Bob Jacobs
Polluting the polls Philosopher Jason Brennan argues in his paper “Polluting The Polls: When Citizens Should Not Vote” that most people should abstain from voting. The argument boils down to the view that most people are not informed enough to vote well, and so should therefore not vote lest they “pollute the polls”. T...
2024-10-02
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7cYAD84TiHtfp5rYX/ai-safety-at-the-frontier-paper-highlights-september-24
7cYAD84TiHtfp5rYX
AI Safety at the Frontier: Paper Highlights, September '24
gasteigerjo
This is a selection of AI safety paper highlights in September 2024, from my blog "AI Safety at the Frontier". The selection primarily covers ML-oriented research. It's only concerned with papers (arXiv, conferences etc.), not LessWrong or Alignment Forum posts. As such, it should be a nice addition for people primaril...
2024-10-02
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vYuhBAqSLyXehqaaL/self-help-corner-loop-detection
vYuhBAqSLyXehqaaL
Self-Help Corner: Loop Detection
adamShimi
The more I work on myself, the more I realize that the first step for me is almost always to just notice I’m stuck in a loop. As a teenager, I didn’t make progress towards getting good at anything because I was stuck in the following loop: Decide X is my passionGo all in for X, think about it all the time, redirect all...
2024-10-02
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CchGxCCLfxyksmrbT/the-murderous-shortcut-a-toy-model-of-instrumental
CchGxCCLfxyksmrbT
The murderous shortcut: a toy model of instrumental convergence
thomas-kwa
Suppose you can tell your AI to meet a certain spec (e.g. cure cancer), but most plans that meet the spec are unsafe (e.g. involve killing everyone, or so Rob Bensinger thinks). In these cases, a quantilizer is insufficient for safety due to instrumental convergence.[1] But suppose we can also give the agent a disprefe...
2024-10-02
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7zDFK3Sug2hQxQBYR/switching-to-a-yamaha-p-121-keyboard
7zDFK3Sug2hQxQBYR
Switching to a Yamaha P-121 Keyboard
jkaufman
The keyboard is a bit of an awkward instrument to travel with. It's quite large, to the point that you have to give up at least one seat in a typical car. What makes this especially frustrating is that I don't actually use the whole 88 keys: The very lowest notes tend to be boomy, while the higher notes are just not v...
2024-10-02
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qhhRwxsef7P2yC2Do/ai-alignment-via-slow-substrates-early-empirical-results
qhhRwxsef7P2yC2Do
AI Alignment via Slow Substrates: Early Empirical Results With StarCraft II
lester-leong
A few months ago, I wrote a post about using slower computing substrates as a possibly new way to safely train and align ASI. If you haven't read that post, basically the idea is that if we consider compute speed as a factor in Total Intelligence (alongside say, quality of intelligence), then it should be possible to k...
2024-10-14
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aGz65X5uAydP2zkbP/foresight-vision-weekend-2024
aGz65X5uAydP2zkbP
Foresight Vision Weekend 2024
allison-duettmann
Vision Weekend US, Foresight’s annual festival, is approaching, offering an opportunity to engage with the world’s most forward-thinking ideas and individuals through the conference, unconference, office hours, mentorship sessions, tech demos, art exhibits, cyberfuture dinners, tea ceremonies, and aftershow parties. Da...
2024-10-01
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2HhJXkoaRLpd8Z9wK/ai-safety-newsletter-42-newsom-vetoes-sb-1047-plus-openai-s
2HhJXkoaRLpd8Z9wK
AI Safety Newsletter #42: Newsom Vetoes SB 1047 Plus, OpenAI’s o1, and AI Governance Summary
corin-katzke
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the Center for AI Safety. We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required. Listen to the AI Safety Newsletter for free on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. Subscribe here to receive future versions. Newsom Vetoes SB 1047 On Sunday, Governor Newsom vetoed Cal...
2024-10-01
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rLQGD63B2znREaaP7/retrieval-augmented-genesis
rLQGD63B2znREaaP7
Retrieval Augmented Genesis
joao-ribeiro-medeiros
a prototype and some thoughts on semantics Before reading this article I strongly encourage you to Checkout the RAGenesis App! Full code available at https://github.com/JoaoRibeiroMedeiros/RAGenesisOSS. Screenshot of Verse Uni Verse page Project Goals Send a message of unity and mutual understanding between different c...
2024-10-01
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/njBRhELvfMtjytYeH/momentum-of-light-in-glass
njBRhELvfMtjytYeH
Momentum of Light in Glass
ben-lang
I think that most people underestimate how many scientific mysteries remain, even on questions that sound basic. My favourite candidate for "the most basic thing that is still unknown" is the momentum carried by light, when it is in a medium (for example, a flash of light in glass or water). If a block of glass has a r...
2024-10-09
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i6fhyzeGw7kkPKAps/ai-model-registries-a-foundational-tool-for-ai-governance
i6fhyzeGw7kkPKAps
AI Model Registries: A Foundational Tool for AI Governance
elliot
This post consists of the Executive Summary and Conclusion of our proposal for model registries as a foundational tool for AI governance, authored by Elliot McKernon, Gwyn Glasser, Deric Cheng, and Gillian Hadfield. The full report is available through the link above. Executive Summary of Our Proposal In this report, w...
2024-10-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/knSCiSGYG8BKqfzAC/information-dark-matter
knSCiSGYG8BKqfzAC
Information dark matter
logan-kieller
I started collecting a list of once “secret” documents that were, in one way or another, broadly released (whether it be through legal process, government disclosures, leaks, or the ideas themselves eventually turned into books): The analysis done by Deutsche Bank investors to predict the 2008 financial crisis (dramati...
2024-10-01
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qCp7WQgiGMwurfGxr/conventional-footnotes-considered-harmful
qCp7WQgiGMwurfGxr
Conventional footnotes considered harmful
dkl9
Writers use footnotes — equally, endnotes — intending that they be optional for the reader. A note will hold a citation, technicality, or explanation, any of which is of interest to only some readers. This is a useful tactic, in principle. Footnotes are indicated with ordinal symbols. A cue to a note may be a number, l...
2024-10-01
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7u4A2JsNvpayGfW9h/likelihood-calculation-with-duobels
7u4A2JsNvpayGfW9h
Likelihood calculation with duobels
martin-gerdes
The post An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes's Theorem explains that using Bayesian reasoning we can much better see how likely something is (by calculating conditional probabilities), and thus update our own beliefs as efficiently as possible. However, the essay shows us how to calculate those probabilities using lots o...
2024-10-01
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6kZ6gW5DEZKFfqvZD/newsom-vetoes-sb-1047
6kZ6gW5DEZKFfqvZD
Newsom Vetoes SB 1047
Zvi
It’s over, until such a future time as either we are so back, or it is over for humanity. Gavin Newsom has vetoed SB 1047. Newsom’s Message In Full Quoted text is him, comments are mine. To the Members of the California State Senate: I am returning Senate Bill 1047 without my signature. This bill would require develope...
2024-10-01
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iTJugmRnQ9HSYHh2z/will-ai-and-humanity-go-to-war
iTJugmRnQ9HSYHh2z
Will AI and Humanity Go to War?
simon-goldstein
[This post is the introduction to my full paper, available here https://philpapers.org/rec/GOLWAA. This post was partially inspired by a LW comment thread between @Matthew Barnett and @Wei Dai.] Abstract. This paper offers the first careful analysis of the possibility that AI and humanity will go to war. The paper focu...
2024-10-01
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/whd4gJWdw2cn58bsw/ama-international-school-student-in-china
whd4gJWdw2cn58bsw
AMA: International School Student in China
Novice
Exigence: 1. Observed US/Euro-centricity of LW in general. Context: 1. Author's lack of much national allegiance(banal nationalism) towards any given nation-state(the term banal nationalism comes from a book of the same title) Discussion Proposals: 1. International schools in general 2. Discussion about nationalism/cos...
2024-10-01
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7XMJPbZfc2qs6LQaH/intelligence-explosion-a-rational-assessment
7XMJPbZfc2qs6LQaH
Intelligence explosion: a rational assessment.
p4rziv4l
Is there a more detailed analysis of the reasons for and against the intelligence explosion? Also interested in other analytic timeline predictions.
2024-09-30
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/S4fA2bKG27cfLi52f/peak-human-capital
S4fA2bKG27cfLi52f
Peak Human Capital
PeterMcCluskey
TL;DR: AI will soon reverse a big economic trend. Epistemic status: This post is likely more speculative than most of my posts. I'm writing this to clarify some vague guesses. Please assume that most claims here are low-confidence forecasts. There has been an important trend over the past century or so for human capita...
2024-09-30
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WACraar4p3o6oF2wD/sam-altman-s-business-negging
WACraar4p3o6oF2wD
Sam Altman's Business Negging
Julian Bradshaw
Quoting from Matt Levine's Money Stuff newsletter: The place you want to reach in your career is where you work for a company and you are like “you know what, I am just so rich, I don’t want you to pay me anymore, it’s fine, I’ll work for free,” and your bosses are like “nope, sorry, we insist, we cannot allow you to w...
2024-09-30
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3Rx4YCuepAb9oBBfR/why-comparative-advantage-does-not-help-horses
3Rx4YCuepAb9oBBfR
Why comparative advantage does not help horses
Sherrinford
This post discusses what statements about comparative advantage say and what they do not say, and why comparative advantage does not save horses from getting sent to glue factories. It is only marginally about AI. Eliezer Yudkowsky, in "The Sun is big, but superintelligences will not spare Earth a little sunlight", exp...
2024-09-30
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bPTGNfN6gGG3BCSz7/is-text-watermarking-a-lost-cause
bPTGNfN6gGG3BCSz7
Is Text Watermarking a lost cause?
egor.timatkov
Summary: A text watermark is some edit to a piece of text that makes its creator easy to identify. The main use for this would be to watermark Large Language Model outputs. This post explores how effective any text watermark could be in general. It does this by analyzing the smallest amount of text that a watermark cou...
2024-10-01
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KCbRx4DhR7puBvGkX/in-context-learning-an-alignment-survey
KCbRx4DhR7puBvGkX
In-Context Learning: An Alignment Survey
alamerton
Epistemic status: new to alignment; some background. I learned about alignment about 1.5 years ago and spent the last ~1 year getting up to speed on alignment through 12 AI safety-related courses and programmes while completing an artificial intelligence MSc programme. Ultimately this post is conjecture, based on my fi...
2024-09-30
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rkhCvJzL5RXwqjcCK/point-of-failure-semiconductor-grade-quartz
rkhCvJzL5RXwqjcCK
Point of Failure: Semiconductor-Grade Quartz
jorge-velez
ChatGPT 4o’s interpretation of semiconductor grade quartz We rarely think about where our stuff comes from or how it’s made. We go through our lives expecting that the things we consume are easily acquired. That is the beauty of modern society: supply chain logistics work so well that we seldom think about the conseque...
2024-09-30
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5QFGBFt7wXv4ekWKh/on-bacteria-on-teeth
5QFGBFt7wXv4ekWKh
on bacteria, on teeth
bhauth
You may have heard that tooth decay is caused by bacteria producing lactic acid. Let's consider that a little more deeply. criteria for decay To effectively cause cavities, bacteria must meet 4 criteria: Anchoring (with special proteins) to either the tooth surface or something connected to it. Biofilm production to tr...
2024-09-30
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xCMadf5WntvRGfjZr/sb-1047-gets-vetoed
xCMadf5WntvRGfjZr
SB 1047 gets vetoed
ryan_b
Just what it says on the tin. Covered most everywhere, but I found the quote in this Reuters article stuck out to me the most: Newsom said the bill "does not take into account whether an AI system is deployed in high-risk environments, involves critical decision-making or the use of sensitive data" and would apply "str...
2024-09-30
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/roE7SHjFWEoMcGZKd/circuits-in-superposition-compressing-many-small-neural
roE7SHjFWEoMcGZKd
Circuits in Superposition: Compressing many small neural networks into one
Lblack
Tl;dr: We generalize the mathematical framework for computation in superposition from compressing many boolean logic gates into a neural network, to compressing many small neural networks into a larger neural network. The number of small networks we can fit into the large network depends on the small networks' total pa...
2024-10-14
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qQaennoJMJsXRs5zq/of-birds-and-bees
qQaennoJMJsXRs5zq
Of Birds and Bees
RussellThor
The Hierarchy There is a hierarchy in life from simple cells to complex cells to multi-cellular creatures to creatures that often live in a groups like birds and bees. As we go up the hierarchy the lower levels have less individual say. For example the mitochondria have no individual life or fitness outside of the cell...
2024-09-30
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4eMkvDtNL8feh8uKn/a-new-process-for-mapping-discussions
4eMkvDtNL8feh8uKn
A new process for mapping discussions
Nathan Young
Recently my team and I have been working on FindingConsensus.AI. It’s a site to show how public figures would answer specific questions about Artificial Intelligence (but it could work for anything). Often when thinking, I defer to figures I trust, so seeing a spread of public figures gives me a head start. I hope that...
2024-09-30
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xviomeb4j4DurGzDi/exploring-decomposability-of-sae-features
Xviomeb4j4DurGzDi
Exploring Decomposability of SAE Features
viknat
TL;DR SAE features are often less decomposable than the feature descriptions imply. By leveraging a prompting technique to test potential sub-components of individual SAE features (for example (using the analogy from the linked post) decomposing Einstein into “German”, “physics”, "relativity” and “famous”), I found ver...
2024-09-30
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZP8YAwGvv8iPr3BvX/most-capable-publicly-available-agents
ZP8YAwGvv8iPr3BvX
Most capable publicly available agents?
Gabe
Looking to do a little compare and contrast.
2024-09-30
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jE3L5ysyx6waX89Cb/not-just-for-therapy-chatbots-the-case-for-compassion-in-ai
jE3L5ysyx6waX89Cb
Not Just For Therapy Chatbots: The Case For Compassion In AI Moral Alignment Research
kenneth_diao
Purpose and Introduction Much AI Safety research has focused on ensuring AIs conform to the intentions implicitly given by humans, but this approach alone may be insufficient (Ji et al., 2024, Section 4.3). Some recent research has explicitly used human values and preferences as benchmarks for AI moral reasoning (e.g.,...
2024-09-30
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ipNaYojbg2kSMLCoE/0-202-bits-of-evidence-in-favor-of-futarchy
ipNaYojbg2kSMLCoE
0.202 Bits of Evidence In Favor of Futarchy
niplav
So, I put up some prediction markets on the results of quantified self RCTs. I ran one of the experiments, and scored one market on the results. How much should the performance of the market change our opinion about the viability of using prediction platforms to predict RCTs, and thus be plausibly useful in selecting e...
2024-09-29
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E4FPkFF4pJ3S4Ncis/pomodoro-method-randomized-self-experiment
E4FPkFF4pJ3S4Ncis
Pomodoro Method Randomized Self Experiment
niplav
Value tracked Effect size d (λ, p, σ change, k) Productivity 0.26 (λ≈6.23, p≈0.069, 0.05, 52) Creativity -0.04 (λ≈0.58, p≈0.92, 0.01, 52) Subjective length -0.147 (λ≈3.33, p≈0.37, 0.03, 52) Happiness -0.07 (λ≈0.32, p≈0.96, 0.01, 111) Contentment -0.13 (λ≈1.08, p≈0.83, 0.05, 111) Relaxation -0.04 (λ≈1.23, p≈0.8, -0.25, ...
2024-09-29
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rzyHbLZHuqHq6KM65/three-subtle-examples-of-data-leakage
rzyHbLZHuqHq6KM65
Three Subtle Examples of Data Leakage
abstractapplic
This is a description of my work on some data science projects, lightly obfuscated and fictionalized to protect the confidentiality of the organizations I handled them for (and also to make it flow better). I focus on the high-level epistemic/mathematical issues, and the lived experience of working on intellectual prob...
2024-10-01
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RaS97GGeBXZDnFi2L/llms-are-likely-not-conscious
RaS97GGeBXZDnFi2L
LLMs are likely not conscious
research_prime_space
I think the sparse autoencoder line of interpretability work is somewhat convincing evidence that LLMs are not conscious. In order for me to consciously take in some information (e.g. the house is yellow), I need to store not only the contents of the statement but also some aspect of my conscious experience. I need to ...
2024-09-29
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MoJK5rcJwRACY4zfD/models-of-life
MoJK5rcJwRACY4zfD
Models of life
abhishaike-mahajan
2024 Statistical models of organisms have existed for decades. The earliest ones relied on simple linear regression and attempted to correlate genetic variations with observable traits or disease risks — such as drug metabolization rates or cancer susceptibility. As computational power increased and machine learning te...
2024-09-29
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HQyWGE2BummDCc2Cx/the-case-for-cot-unfaithfulness-is-overstated
HQyWGE2BummDCc2Cx
the case for CoT unfaithfulness is overstated
nostalgebraist
[Quickly written, unpolished. Also, it's possible that there's some more convincing work on this topic that I'm unaware of – if so, let me know. Also also, it's possible I'm arguing with an imaginary position here and everyone already agrees with everything below.] In research discussions about LLMs, I often pick up a ...
2024-09-29
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wopNDxxizjY6sMbpd/building-safer-ai-from-the-ground-up-steering-model-behavior
wopNDxxizjY6sMbpd
Building Safer AI from the Ground Up: Steering Model Behavior via Pre-Training Data Curation
antonio-clarke
Building Safer AI from the Ground Up: Steering Model Behavior via Pre-Training Data Curation I completed this blog post as my final project for BlueDot Impact's AI Alignment course. While it's nowhere near as polished as I'd like it to be given the short-term nature of the course, I'd love to hear what others think of ...
2024-09-29
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dPwttHGXwti4B3chf/a-policy-proposal
dPwttHGXwti4B3chf
A Policy Proposal
phdead
(Crosspost of https://phoropter.substack.com/p/a-policy-proposal) TL;DR: I think that the features used by recommendation systems should be configurable by end users receiving recommendations, and that this ability should be enforced by policy. Just as the GDPR protects a user's ability to choose which cookies are enab...
2024-09-29
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bsXPTiAhhwt5nwBW3/do-sparse-autoencoders-saes-transfer-across-base-and
bsXPTiAhhwt5nwBW3
Do Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) transfer across base and finetuned language models?
Taras Kutsyk
This is a project submission post for the AI Safety Fundamentals course from BlueDot Impact. Therefore, some of its sections are intended to be beginner-friendly and overly verbose for familiar readers (mainly the Introduction section) and may freely be skipped. TLDR (Executive Summary) We explored whether Sparse Autoe...
2024-09-29
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WE65pBLQvNk3h3Dnr/cryonics-is-free
WE65pBLQvNk3h3Dnr
Cryonics is free
MathieuRoy
I've been wanting to write a nice post for a few months, but should probably just write one sooner instead. This is a top-level post not because it's a long post, but because it's an important one. Anyways. Cryonics is pretty much money-free now (ie. subsidized technically)—one of the most affordable ways to dispose of...
2024-09-29
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Fz5tg9H5xE7oLnT9d/runner-s-high-on-demand-a-story-of-luck-and-persistence
Fz5tg9H5xE7oLnT9d
Runner's High On Demand: A Story of Luck & Persistence
DarkSym
I can get runner’s high on demand. It takes about 15 minutes of jogging at a pace of 6-7 kph and a heart rate of around 140 bpm. I need to be hungry but not starving. And my body has to otherwise be doing fine. The ability unlocked rather suddenly for me and I’m not sure why it did. However, people have told me they’d ...
2024-09-29
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hs2LMxjRwzSiz9LSt/my-methodological-turn
hs2LMxjRwzSiz9LSt
My Methodological Turn
adamShimi
This substack is now "For Methods", in a nod to Feyerabend's classic "Against Method".[1] Like Feyerabend, I want to dispel the specters of the one true method, be it the Popperian "scientific method"or Bayes. Such fake ideals miss all the weird little pieces, all the gleaming details that make the methods live and bre...
2024-09-29
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FAsjqL45SCAQPmYvD/linkpost-hypocrisy-standoff
FAsjqL45SCAQPmYvD
Linkpost: Hypocrisy standoff
Chris_Leong
null
2024-09-29
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FNuBEJnbtEEdCEAnT/interpreting-the-effects-of-jailbreak-prompts-in-llms
FNuBEJnbtEEdCEAnT
Interpreting the effects of Jailbreak Prompts in LLMs
harsh-raj-ep-037
GColab What is Jailbreaking? Jailbreaking, in the context of Large Language Models (LLMs), refers to the process of crafting specific prompts that intentionally bypass or subvert the built-in alignment mechanisms, such as Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF). These alignment mechanisms are designed to ensu...
2024-09-29
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/79AGX6BDeWdFYqgYE/any-real-toeholds-for-making-practical-decisions-regarding
79AGX6BDeWdFYqgYE
Any real toeholds for making practical decisions regarding AI safety?
lcmgcd
Let's call the thing where you try to take actions that make everyone/yourself less dead (on expectation) the "safety game". This game is annoyingly chaotic, kind of like Arimaa. You write the sequences then  some  risk-averse not-very-power-seeking nerds read it and you're 10x less dead. Then Mr. Altman reads it and y...
2024-09-29
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Foh7HQYeuN2Gej5k6/new-capabilities-new-risks-evaluating-agentic-general
Foh7HQYeuN2Gej5k6
New Capabilities, New Risks? - Evaluating Agentic General Assistants using Elements of GAIA & METR Frameworks
tej-lander
by Tej Lander FCCT Above: LLMs vs Agentic Assistants - a big step forward? (Image created by DALL.E via GPT4o) Overview Abstract 1: Why are Agentic Systems a ‘hot topic’? 2: What makes a system ‘agentic’? 2.1 Taxonomy of Agenticness from Shavit et al. (2023, OpenAI) 2.2 Taxonomy of Agenticness from Chan et al. (2023, F...
2024-09-29
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ozR3BRDs8zJBJrz5P/axrp-episode-36-adam-shai-and-paul-riechers-on-computational
ozR3BRDs8zJBJrz5P
AXRP Episode 36 - Adam Shai and Paul Riechers on Computational Mechanics
DanielFilan
YouTube link Sometimes, people talk about transformers as having “world models” as a result of being trained to predict text data on the internet. But what does this even mean? In this episode, I talk with Adam Shai and Paul Riechers about their work applying computational mechanics, a sub-field of physics studying how...
2024-09-29
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HtfBpqbEqEBNuWXSc/duncon-lighthaven
HtfBpqbEqEBNuWXSc
DunCon @Lighthaven
Duncan_Sabien
null
2024-09-29
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DznTxD4TgCoqtBLsy/san-francisco-acx-meetup-first-saturday-8
DznTxD4TgCoqtBLsy
San Francisco ACX Meetup “First Saturday”
nate-sternberg
Date: Saturday, October 5th, 2024 Time: 1 pm – 3 pm PT Address: Yerba Buena Gardens in San Francisco, just outside the Metreon food court, coordinates 37°47'04.4"N 122°24'11.1"W Contact: 34251super@gmail.com Come join San Francisco’s First Saturday (or SFFS – easy to remember, right?) ACX meetup. Whether you're an avid...
2024-09-29
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ronAKFdTDE7tiZk2c/developmental-stages-in-multi-problem-grokking
ronAKFdTDE7tiZk2c
Developmental Stages in Multi-Problem Grokking
James Sullivan
Summary This post is my capstone project for BlueDot Impact’s AI Alignment course. It was a 12 week online course that covered AI risks, alignment, scalable oversight, technical governance and more. You can read more about it here. In this project, I investigated the use of a developmental interpretability method—speci...
2024-09-29
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NBMR5KvbeMKmvFnbX/a-psychoanalytic-explanation-of-sam-altman-s-irrational
NBMR5KvbeMKmvFnbX
A Psychoanalytic Explanation of Sam Altman's Irrational Actions
Gabe
Du sublime au ridicule il n’y a qu’un pas From the sublime to the ridiculous is but a step A quote often used to describe Napoleon, Sam Altman is making history rhyme. His cool confidence often gives an air of sublime, and as of last week, it seems he has crossed into the ridiculous. And with the ridiculous, the irrati...
2024-09-29
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6svEwNBhokQ83qMBz/slow-takeoff-is-a-terrible-term-for-maybe-even-faster
6svEwNBhokQ83qMBz
"Slow" takeoff is a terrible term for "maybe even faster takeoff, actually"
Raemon
For a long time, when I heard "slow takeoff", I assumed it meant "takeoff that takes longer calendar time than fast takeoff." (i.e. what is now referred to more often as "short timelines" vs "long timelines."). I think Paul Christiano popularized the term, and it so happened he both expected to see longer timelines and...
2024-09-28
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2Nt5LDuzTch9JYvBP/agi-farm
2Nt5LDuzTch9JYvBP
AGI Farm
rahul-chand
This post discusses Joe Carlsmith’s views on how to approach the problem of AI risk as interspecies interaction and how humans can use it navigate future AI development better. The essay is divided into three parts. First I give my understanding of Carlsmith's views, then I build upon some of his ideas by relating them...
2024-10-01
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jhDCRe7fnsvubknBp/llm-psychometrics-and-prompt-induced-psychopathy
jhDCRe7fnsvubknBp
LLM Psychometrics and Prompt-Induced Psychopathy
korbinian-koch
This post contains experimental results and personal takes from my participation in the July 2024 edition of the BlueDot Impact AI Safety Fundamentals course. TL;DR: Psychopaths are willing to manipulate and deceive. Psychometrics try to measure this with standardized tests.AI models express different levels of psychop...
2024-10-18
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uwmFSaDMprsFkpWet/explore-more-a-bag-of-tricks-to-keep-your-life-on-the-rails
uwmFSaDMprsFkpWet
Explore More: A Bag of Tricks to Keep Your Life on the Rails
DarkSym
At least, if you happen to be near me in brain space. What advice would you give your younger self? That was the prompt for a class I taught at PAIR 2024. About a quarter of participants ranked it in their top 3 of courses at the camp and half of them had it listed as their favorite. I hadn’t expected that. I thought m...
2024-09-28
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YWo2cKJgL7Lg8xWjj/base-llms-refuse-too
YWo2cKJgL7Lg8xWjj
Base LLMs refuse too
ckkissane
Executive Summary Refusing harmful requests is not a novel behavior learned in chat fine-tuning, as pre-trained base models will also refuse requests (48% of all harmful requests, 3% of harmless) just at a lower rate than chat models (90% harmful, 3% harmless)Further, for both Qwen 1.5 0.5B and Gemma 2 9B, chat fine-tu...
2024-09-29
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qLvqhcoSARqAAYMG9/any-trump-supporters-want-to-dialogue
qLvqhcoSARqAAYMG9
Any Trump Supporters Want to Dialogue?
k64
It's that time of year - the time when rationality seems increasingly scarce as political tensions rise.  I find myself wishing I could have one of the people I see reaching super different conclusions shoot me with a POV gun so I could understand what it's like being on the other side. I'm not strongly left-leaning, s...
2024-09-28
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GWteDqb6nAWg3ihjd/evaluating-llama-3-for-political-sycophancy
GWteDqb6nAWg3ihjd
Evaluating LLaMA 3 for political sycophancy
alma.liezenga
TLDR: I evaluated LLaMA v3 (8B + 70B) for political sycophancy using one of the two datasets I created. The results for this dataset suggest that sycophancy definitely occurs in a blatant way for both models though more clearly for 8B than for 70B. There are hints of politically tainted sycophancy, with the model espec...
2024-09-28
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dHrTjywTTfKJZ5TQL/cot-scaling-implies-slower-takeoff-speeds
dHrTjywTTfKJZ5TQL
COT Scaling implies slower takeoff speeds
logan-zoellner
This graph is the biggest update to the AI alignment discourse since GPT-3 For those of you unfamiliar with the lore, prior to GPT-3, the feeling was that AGI would rapidly foom based on recursive-self improvement. After GPT-3, it became clear that the first AGI would in reality be built in a large lab using a multi-bi...
2024-09-28
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vgmPXYg5isqD33vFT/two-new-datasets-for-evaluating-political-sycophancy-in-llms
vgmPXYg5isqD33vFT
Two new datasets for evaluating political sycophancy in LLMs
alma.liezenga
TLDR: I created two datasets (154 and 759 statements) that can aid in measuring political sycophancy (in the US in particular) by combining a diverse set of political statements with quantitative data on the degree to which different political groups (dis)agree with those statements. The datasets can be found here. Wit...
2024-09-28
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pknCJt92qfkQjG2Q4/thoughts-on-evo-bio-math-and-mesa-optimization-maybe-we-need
pknCJt92qfkQjG2Q4
Thoughts on Evo-Bio Math and Mesa-Optimization: Maybe We Need To Think Harder About "Relative" Fitness?
Lorec
Does natural selection, in general, really go by inclusive relative reproductive fitness? Does sexual selection? This seems somewhat likelier. Obviously there's a trivial sense in which the type of reproductive fitness that natural selection selects for, in general, is not relative. The coarsest denominator, the "botto...
2024-09-28
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wD6qnCacTtriHzCbh/happy-simulations
wD6qnCacTtriHzCbh
Happy simulations
nicolo-moretti
Certainty is impossible. Something exists rather than nothing. One can't justify stopping using logic with logic. Logic tells you what is most likely from your own perspective, it's helpful. Beliefs that don't follow logic or evidence are not helpful on their own, since their own opposite is just as likely. If a story ...
2024-10-01
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k8bBx4HcTF9iyikma/sae-features-for-refusal-and-sycophancy-steering-vectors
k8bBx4HcTF9iyikma
SAE features for refusal and sycophancy steering vectors
neverix
TL;DR Steering vectors provide evidence that linear directions in LLMs are interpretable. Since SAEs decompose linear directions, they should be able to interpret steering vectors.We apply the gradient pursuit algorithm suggested by Smith et al to decompose steering vectors, and find that they contain many interpretabl...
2024-10-12
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bsYpKtaS2L6sqbKbq/an-interactive-shapley-value-explainer
bsYpKtaS2L6sqbKbq
An Interactive Shapley Value Explainer
james-brown
This Shapley Value Calculator breaks down the formula in simple steps, using cats.
2024-09-28
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fbw3PcLTGn53fxCM7/exploring-shard-like-behavior-empirical-insights-into
fbw3PcLTGn53fxCM7
Exploring Shard-like Behavior: Empirical Insights into Contextual Decision-Making in RL Agents
alejandro-aristizabal
Image generated by Microsoft Bing Image Creator Abstract Shard Theory posits that reinforcement learning agents can be modeled as collections of contextually activated decision influences, or "shards." However, the mechanistic definition of shards remains an open question. This study investigates the contextual activat...
2024-09-29
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qBgwApAqAhusGoxyQ/implications-of-china-s-recession-on-agi-development
qBgwApAqAhusGoxyQ
Implications of China's recession on AGI development?
UnexpectedValues
It seems that China may be going through a recession. It's hard to tell because we can't really trust government data, but my vague impression (which you shouldn't trust very much) is that China is in a pretty bad economic position. Source: Financial Times (though see here for caveats). What implications (if any) does ...
2024-09-28
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4q9P5EMvbit8Ekruh/chat-with-impactful-research-and-evaluations-unjournal
4q9P5EMvbit8Ekruh
'Chat with impactful research & evaluations' (Unjournal NotebookLMs)
david-reinstein
Post status: First-pass, looking for feedback, aiming to build and share something more polished and comprehensive The Unjournal: background, progress, push for communications and impact The Unjournal is a nonprofit that publicly evaluates and rates research, focusing on impact. We now have about 30 "evaluation package...
2024-09-28
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jeBkx6agMuBCQW94C/mats-alumni-impact-analysis
jeBkx6agMuBCQW94C
MATS Alumni Impact Analysis
utilistrutil
Summary This winter, MATS will be running our seventh program. In early-mid 2024, 46% of alumni from our first four programs (Winter 2021-22 to Summer 2023) completed a survey about their career progress since participating in MATS. This report presents key findings from the responses of these 72 alumni. 78% of respond...
2024-09-30
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gXinMpNJcXXgSTEpn/ai-craftsmanship
gXinMpNJcXXgSTEpn
AI Craftsmanship
abramdemski
Epistemic status: in some sense, I am just complaining, and making light of the extensive effort which goes into designing modern AI. I'm focusing on a sense that something is missing and could be better, which might incidentally come off as calling a broad category of people stupid. Sorry. The video Badness 0 by Sucke...
2024-11-11
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3AmoGjF2bgZqjnh5s/eye-contact-is-effortless-when-you-re-no-longer-emotionally
3AmoGjF2bgZqjnh5s
Eye contact is effortless when you’re no longer emotionally blocked on it
Chipmonk
Story time! I wanted to run a fun party: "Make 100% eye contact or get sent to jail!" But I didn’t want to force people to make eye contact… I wanted everyone to be genuinely comfortable! How? Consider: Eye contact is effortless without emotional blocks. If you have trouble making eye contact, you’re probably held back...
2024-09-27
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EvRbm3yrouTwFewrt/where-is-the-learn-everything-system
EvRbm3yrouTwFewrt
Where is the Learn Everything System?
DarkSym
or how many steps are left till we have an education platform for everyone I’m trying to figure out how to build a universal education platform. I don’t know how to do it. By a ‘universal education platform’ I mean a system that allows anyone to learn anything and everything. That’s a little ambitious. So for argument’...
2024-09-27
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PBKcXv5zjeezjFxot/an-observatory-for-a-shy-super-ai
PBKcXv5zjeezjFxot
An "Observatory" For a Shy Super AI?
Sherrinford
Sorry for posting this twice, but I just could not change the formatting of the text the first time. This is an excerpt from Rob Reid's substack post "An 'Observatory' For a Shy Super AI?" which describes a thought experiment about a manipulative AI. The excerpt is a bit of a spoiler, better read the actual text. The e...
2024-09-27
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wzkud8hMnsKv33W7g/searching-for-impossibility-results-or-no-go-theorems-for
wzkud8hMnsKv33W7g
Searching for Impossibility Results or No-Go Theorems for provable safety.
Maelstrom
I am looking for results showing that various approaches to provable safety are impossible or that such proofs are of a particular complexity class. I have Yampolskiy's paper "Impossibility Results in AI: A Survey," but I am looking for more targeted results that would help guide research into provable safety. Many of ...
2024-09-27
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yfykEuvxKHnwTnAZN/the-compute-conundrum-ai-governance-in-a-shifting
yfykEuvxKHnwTnAZN
The Compute Conundrum: AI Governance in a Shifting Geopolitical Era
azelen
Introduction Artificial Intelligence (AI) has rapidly evolved from a futuristic concept to a transformative force reshaping industries, economies, and societies worldwide. As AI systems become increasingly sophisticated, ensuring that they act in ways aligned with human values—known as AI alignment—has emerged as a cri...
2024-09-28
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nq8XhdqkodfusJcmD/what-is-randomness
nq8XhdqkodfusJcmD
What is Randomness?
martinkunev
epistemic status: my intuition after reading and watching a bunch of stuff; no new information You take a die in your hand. If you throw it, the result will be what people usually call a random number. Let's say you get 2. What do we mean when we say that this number is random? To answer these questions, I will try to ...
2024-09-27
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3Auq76LFtBA4Jp5M8/why-is-o1-so-deceptive
3Auq76LFtBA4Jp5M8
Why is o1 so deceptive?
abramdemski
The o1 system card reports: 0.8% of o1-preview’s responses got flagged as being ‘deceptive’ [...] roughly two thirds of which appear to be intentional (0.38%), meaning that there was some evidence in the chain of thought that o1-preview was aware that the answer was incorrect [...] Intentional hallucinations primarily ...
2024-09-27
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2q6DqS8znbiJrGAur/the-offense-defense-balance-of-gene-drives
2q6DqS8znbiJrGAur
The Offense-Defense Balance of Gene Drives
maxwell-tabarrok
I recently wrote a twitter thread for Works In Progress summarizing their article on gene drives as a tool to end malaria. There’s a section in that piece that I didn’t get to highlight in the thread which I want to talk about here: the offense-defense balance of gene drives. What Are Gene Drives and How do They Work? ...
2024-09-27
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5qbcmKdfWc7vskrRD/book-review-on-the-edge-the-future
5qbcmKdfWc7vskrRD
Book Review: On the Edge: The Future
Zvi
Previously: The Fundamentals, The Gamblers, The Business We have now arrived at the topics most central to this book, aka ‘The Future.’ Rationalism and Effective Altruism (EA) The Manifest conference was also one of the last reporting trips that I made for this book. And it confirmed for me that the River is real—not j...
2024-09-27
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Twda7wrAsxv9YLpSK/knowledge-base-1-could-it-increase-intelligence-and-make-it
Twda7wrAsxv9YLpSK
Knowledge Base 1: Could it increase intelligence and make it safer?
iwis
This series of posts presents the idea of building a knowledge database that allows for the collection and exchange of reliable information between people, computers, and between people and computers. It also discusses how this database could increase the intelligence of both people and computers, and increase the safe...
2024-09-30
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KLDc5JuQZLiimB58b/is-cybercrime-really-costing-trillions-per-year
KLDc5JuQZLiimB58b
Is cybercrime really costing trillions per year?
Fabien
Many sources report that cybercrime costs the global economy trillions of dollars per year. It is the top Google search result and it is quoted on Wikipedia. But I am not able to track down how the number was computed, or find criticism of these numbers. This would be insanely high if true: the world GDP is only 100 tr...
2024-09-27
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NsxFcB2EAxcY6cdGh/2024-petrov-day-retrospective
NsxFcB2EAxcY6cdGh
2024 Petrov Day Retrospective
Benito
(Follow-up to The 2024 Petrov Day Scenario) Part 0: "Previously, on Petrov Day..." By Raymond Arnold One year ago, many people on LessWrong received a DM asking them to choose the most important virtue of Petrov Day, with four listed options that we'd seen people argue for in previous years. "Avoiding actions that noti...
2024-09-28
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5XjzmxcZFm3BJrNmn/avoiding-jailbreaks-by-discouraging-their-representation-in-5
5XjzmxcZFm3BJrNmn
Avoiding jailbreaks by discouraging their representation in activation space
Guido Bergman
This project was completed as part of the AI Safety Fundamentals: Alignment Course by BlueDot Impact. All the code, data and results are available in this repository. Abstract The goal of this project is to answer two questions: “Can jailbreaks be represented as a linear direction in activation space?” and if so, “Can ...
2024-09-27
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/phRTiFM9AFvPxHs6R/australian-ai-safety-forum-2024
phRTiFM9AFvPxHs6R
Australian AI Safety Forum 2024
liam-carroll
We're excited to announce the inaugural Australian AI Safety Forum, taking place on November 7-8, 2024, in Sydney, Australia. This event aims to foster the growth of the AI safety community within Australia. Apply now! Key Details Dates: November 7-8, 2024Location: Sydney Knowledge Hub, The University of SydneyWebsite:...
2024-09-27
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QaLTWcHJAvfsRAbR8/doing-nothing-utility-function
QaLTWcHJAvfsRAbR8
Doing Nothing Utility Function
k64
One of the questions I've heard asked is "how do you design a utility function that would make the AI do nothing?"  That is, how could we put a pause button on an AI so that we could pause it if we wanted to?  I had an idea about how one could do this, and am sure it has already been thought of, so I'm curious to know ...
2024-09-26