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https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZuKfs5Ank2zbgCcPG/a-narrative-history-of-environmentalism-s-partisanship | ZuKfs5Ank2zbgCcPG | A Narrative History of Environmentalism's Partisanship | jeffrey-heninger | This is the second in a sequence of four posts taken from my recent report: Why Did Environmentalism Become Partisan?
Many of the specific claims made here are investigated in the full report. If you want to know more about how fossil fuel companies’ campaign contributions, the partisan lean of academia, or newspapers’... | 2024-05-14 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D6nTSEdCcbGQKCfc2/teaching-cs-during-take-off | D6nTSEdCcbGQKCfc2 | Teaching CS During Take-Off | andrew-carle | I stayed up too late collecting way-past-deadline papers and writing report cards. When I woke up at 6, this anxious email from one of my g11 Computer Science students was already in my Inbox.
Student: Hello Mr. Carle, I hope you've slept well; I haven't.
I've been seeing a lot of new media regarding how developed AI h... | 2024-05-14 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/g7H2sSGHAeYxCHzrz/how-much-ai-inference-can-we-do | g7H2sSGHAeYxCHzrz | How much AI inference can we do? | Benjamin_Todd | Suppose you have a bunch of GPUs. How many LLM forward passes can you do with them?[1]
This is relevant to figuring out how profitable AI will be in the short-term, how powerful AI systems might be able to come in the near future, how large the compute overhang will be and other strategic questions.
Here’s my attempt t... | 2024-05-14 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEfy9Dqin7nEJ9Fbs/how-to-do-conceptual-research-case-study-interview-with | QEfy9Dqin7nEJ9Fbs | How to do conceptual research: Case study interview with Caspar Oesterheld | Chi Nguyen | Caspar Oesterheld came up with two of the most important concepts in my field of work: Evidential Cooperation in Large Worlds and Safe Pareto Improvements. He also came up with a potential implementation of evidential decision theory in boundedly rational agents called decision auctions, wrote a comprehensive review of... | 2024-05-14 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XAcX4mguEsLBbus3b/in-the-context-of-ai-interp-what-is-a-feature-exactly | XAcX4mguEsLBbus3b | In the context of AI interp. What is a feature exactly? | joshua-bello | As I read more about previous interpretability work, I've noticed this trend that implicitly defines a feature in this weird human centric way. It's this weird prior that expects networks to automatically generate features that correspond with how we process images/text because... why exactly?
Chris Olah's team at Anth... | 2024-05-14 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/soQfebadmZgWDeD5Y/announcing-the-ai-safety-summit-talks-with-yoshua-bengio | soQfebadmZgWDeD5Y | Announcing the AI Safety Summit Talks with Yoshua Bengio | otto-barten | At the Existential Risk Observatory, we focus on reducing AI existential risk by informing the public debate. One way we do this is by organizing events, such as before the AI Safety Summit. We did this last time in Bletchley Park, and we're now doing it again, fully remote, between the two days (21-22 May) of the Seou... | 2024-05-14 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Y92zrj9RxMPThrN6/the-greater-goal-sharing-knowledge-with-the-cosmos | 6Y92zrj9RxMPThrN6 | The Greater Goal: Sharing Knowledge with the Cosmos | pda.everyday | Our planet faces numerous risks, from natural disasters to technological threats. By transmitting AI models as data into space now, we could proactively safeguard our intellectual heritage against potential future catastrophes that could wipe out intelligent life on Earth. We could enable potential existing extraterres... | 2024-05-14 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2BTTLCubuwA6scoqR/can-ai-partners-make-human-ones-pale-in-comparison | 2BTTLCubuwA6scoqR | Can AI partners make human ones pale in comparison? | false | We normally view AI as cold, pragmatic, and, maybe, even socially awkward.
The risks we identify reflect this stereotype.
Just consider the paperclip maximizer;
a superintelligent AI is asked to manage a paperclip factory.
As it is trying to maximize the paperclip production, it quickly realizes that humans waste a who... | 2024-05-14 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BvafEHRwkFzYBYRiQ/what-are-non-zero-sum-games-a-primer | BvafEHRwkFzYBYRiQ | What Are Non-Zero-Sum Games?—A Primer | james-brown | Originally published at https://nonzerosum.games. Come visit for the full experience.
From the genetic lottery we’re thrown into at birth, to the educational opportunities we navigate, the jobs we compete for, and the relationships we cultivate — every stage in life is marked by wins and losses, strategies and tactics,... | 2024-05-18 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6MCd2txDNJvK4Yrg9/a-positive-double-standard-self-help-principles-work-for | 6MCd2txDNJvK4Yrg9 | A Positive Double Standard—Self-Help Principles Work For Individuals Not Populations | james-brown | This story is reposted from nonzerosum.games where it appears in it’s intended form, full colour with functioning interactive elements, jump over to the site for the authentic experience.
I have a confession: As a teenager I was desperate to learn how to win friends and influence people, to think and grow rich and deve... | 2024-05-22 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mjY4heZpqjshNJtoF/why-i-ll-keep-my-crummy-drawings-how-generative-ai-art-won-t | mjY4heZpqjshNJtoF | Why I'll Keep My Crummy Drawings—How Generative AI Art Won't Supplant... Art. | james-brown | The other day the post below caught my attention. In its characteristic bad-grammar-ambiguous-origin-meme style, Neo’s sentiment is one I share.
As an artist of sorts (it’s the only thing I’m actually qualified for) I see art as more about transformation than creation. I find we (and yes, I include myself) tend to myth... | 2024-05-15 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qMcS6xmSgtLL4mpxQ/why-do-we-enjoy-music | qMcS6xmSgtLL4mpxQ | Why do we enjoy music? | metachirality | Enjoying music doesn't seem to have any obvious purpose. Sure you can argue it strengthens social bonds, but why specifically sounds arranged in patterns through time over anything else?
At least with humor you can say it's about identifying the generating function of some observation which is sort of like reducing pre... | 2024-05-14 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gTPATcjGMoEkiaLyj/emergence-is-a-universal-non-zero-sum-phenomenon | gTPATcjGMoEkiaLyj | Emergence Is a Universal Non-Zero-Sum Phenomenon. | james-brown | Against a torrent of entropy, eddies of complexity arise. We have the non-zero-sum phenomenon of emergence to thank for our very existence. While I concede the problematic nature of the term "Emergence" as detailed by Eliezer Yudkowsky in The Futility of Emergence, this series makes a case for emergence not as an expla... | 2024-05-14 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5nfTXn4LrxnTmBWsb/environmentalism-in-the-united-states-is-unusually-partisan | 5nfTXn4LrxnTmBWsb | Environmentalism in the United States Is Unusually Partisan | jeffrey-heninger | This is the first in a sequence of four posts taken from my recent report: Why Did Environmentalism Become Partisan?
Introduction
In the United States, environmentalism is extremely partisan.
It might feel like this was inevitable. Caring about the environment, and supporting government action to protect the environmen... | 2024-05-13 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KtCgWunZqgbTnP94a/openai-releases-gpt-4o-natively-interfacing-with-text-voice | KtCgWunZqgbTnP94a | OpenAI releases GPT-4o, natively interfacing with text, voice and vision | martinsq | Until now ChatGPT dealt with audio through a pipeline of 3 models: audio transcription, then GPT-4, then text-to-speech. GPT-4o is apparently trained on text, voice and vision so that everything is done natively. You can now interrupt it mid-sentence.It has GPT-4 level intelligence according to benchmarks. 16-shot GPT-... | 2024-05-13 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zKjhwt6pPCBMEJ9KJ/gpt-4o-is-out | zKjhwt6pPCBMEJ9KJ | GPT-4o is out | EZ97 | OpenAI just announced an improved LLM called GPT-4o.
From their website
Today, GPT-4o is much better than any existing model at understanding and discussing the images you share. For example, you can now take a picture of a menu in a different language and talk to GPT-4o to translate it, learn about the food's history ... | 2024-05-13 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mk4oTFZubvRLZRDiw/somerville-porchfest-thoughts | mk4oTFZubvRLZRDiw | Somerville Porchfest Thoughts | jkaufman | This Saturday was Porchfest in Somerville, an annual festival where
musicians around the city play on their porches and people wander
around listening. As in the past few years Cecilia and I (
Kingfisher) played for
contra dancing:
Harris Lapiroff called:
If anyone has pictures of videos from the set, I'd love to see ... | 2024-05-13 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P9kTkbqcW2PtnHErQ/branding-ai-safety-groups-a-field-guide | P9kTkbqcW2PtnHErQ | Branding AI Safety Groups: A Field Guide | agucova | This article is the first in a series I plan to publish on different aspects of AI Safety group strategy. The aim is that, eventually, these articles will form the basis for a new resource center for AI Safety Groups. Note that these articles aren’t being published in any particular order.
TL;DR: AI safety groups shoul... | 2024-05-13 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ds5ShpaLLdBzkAuvT/against-student-debt-cancellation-from-all-sides-of-the | Ds5ShpaLLdBzkAuvT | Against Student Debt Cancellation From All Sides of the Political Compass | maxwell-tabarrok | A stance against student debt cancellation doesn’t rely on the assumptions of any single ideology. Strong cases against student debt cancellation can be made based on the fundamental values of any section of the political compass. In no particular order, here are some arguments against student debt cancellation from th... | 2024-05-13 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9GLj9DqfpsJBRKHRr/monthly-roundup-18-may-2024 | 9GLj9DqfpsJBRKHRr | Monthly Roundup #18: May 2024 | Zvi | As I note in the third section, I will be attending LessOnline at month’s end at Lighthaven in Berkeley. If that is your kind of event, then consider going, and buy your ticket today before prices go up.
This month’s edition was an opportunity to finish off some things that got left out of previous editions or where ev... | 2024-05-13 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rELsE8hcprmJLwAXv/tools-to-discern-between-real-and-ai | rELsE8hcprmJLwAXv | Tools to discern between real and AI | daniele-de-nuntiis | What are the best ways to figure out if someone who contacted you / a piece of text / an image is AI generated? | 2024-05-13 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8CY9TCK2oaGPrDheY/what-you-really-mean-when-you-claim-to-support-ubi-for-job | 8CY9TCK2oaGPrDheY | What you really mean when you claim to support “UBI for job automation”: Part 1 | deric-cheng | Author’s Note: Though I’m currently a governance researcher at Convergence Analysis, this post is unaffiliated with Convergence. The opinions expressed are solely my own.
You’ve seen it a dozen times at this point. You’re probably broadly aligned philosophically, but haven’t thought terribly deeply about the details. Y... | 2024-05-13 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P6LHd2Js7jGdvf4E8/the-two-tiered-society | P6LHd2Js7jGdvf4E8 | The two-tiered society | Roman Leventov | On AI and Jobs: How to Make AI Work With Us, Not Against Us With Daron Acemoglu
Here is Claude.ai's summary of Daron Acemoglu's main ideas from the podcast:
Historically, major productivity improvements from new technologies haven't always translated into benefits for workers. It depends on how the technologies are use... | 2024-05-13 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TMNqxfJHZwdQHLZ5D/benefitial-habits-personal-rules-with-very-minimal-tradeoffs | TMNqxfJHZwdQHLZ5D | Benefitial habits/personal rules with very minimal tradeoffs? | Slapstick | I'm looking for personal rules one might live by which adhere to a specific criteria outlined below, following an example.
I have a personal rule I've been following which is "No looking at screens in the bed where I sleep" I find this to be an extremely helpful and successful rule despite being someone who struggles t... | 2024-05-13 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/orKjt6TneueAezyio/review-of-metr-s-public-evaluation-protocol | orKjt6TneueAezyio | Review of METR’s public evaluation protocol | nahoj | TLDR: We reviewed METR’s “Example evaluation protocol” and found a couple of points where there is room for improvement or unclear information. We also make a couple of suggestions around scoring, outsourcing, etc.
This review was done by 2 people without previous knowledge of METR in ~1.5 days at the end of ML4Good UK... | 2024-06-30 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gDBuetmcFWNoWSFvC/individual-utilities-shift-continuously-as-geometric-weights | gDBuetmcFWNoWSFvC | Individual Utilities Shift Continuously as Geometric Weights Shift | StrivingForLegibility | This is a supplemental post to Geometric Utilitarianism (And Why It Matters), in which I show that when all agents have positive weight ψi, the optimal geometric weighted average moves continuously across the Pareto frontier as we change those weights. I also show that we can extend this continuity result to all weight... | 2024-08-07 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EHRXKxk2YMKa7oGaw/why-you-should-learn-a-musical-instrument | EHRXKxk2YMKa7oGaw | Why you should learn a musical instrument | cata | I have liked music very much since I was a teenager. I spent many hours late at night in Soulseek chat rooms talking about and sharing music with my online friends. So, I tend to just have some music floating around in my head on any given day. But, I never learned to play any instrument, or use any digital audio softw... | 2024-05-15 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jK9Pzb9FfsX7Nnv4y/partitioned-book-club | jK9Pzb9FfsX7Nnv4y | Partitioned Book Club | pixx | Partitioned Book Club (working title) is a specific kind of one-off meetup where attendees coordinate to read different chapters of the same book before the meetup. The meetup consists of each read chapter getting briefly summarized by its reader(s), and then a more general discussion of the book. In a traditional book... | 2024-05-12 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oowNan3scknsSdx2X/understanding-rationality-vs-ideology-debates | oowNan3scknsSdx2X | Understanding rationality vs. ideology debates | alenglander | [This was originally intended as a Facebook post, but it grew to the point where it felt way too long for that.]
For a while now I've been trying to wrap my head around what I'll loosely call "rationality vs. ideology" debates. Very roughly, these are debates where at least at first glance one side seems to be saying t... | 2024-05-12 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iLTtkzATEt6nSgeux/inner-optimization-mechanisms-in-neural-nets | iLTtkzATEt6nSgeux | Inner Optimization Mechanisms in Neural Nets | programcrafter | I believe that current architecture of neural networks supports mesa-optimization: generally speaking, searching across some vectors in order to select one of them, which will be most useful for producing an answer.
Three inner optimization ways are already possible, and most likely there will be new ones.
Optimization... | 2024-05-12 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gwavKiKXf97NLNC2n/building-intuition-with-spaced-repetition-systems | gwavKiKXf97NLNC2n | Building intuition with spaced repetition systems | g-w1 | Do you ever go to a lecture, follow it thinking it makes total sense, then look back at your notes later and realize it makes no sense? This used to happen to me, but I’ve learned how to use spaced repetition to fully avoid this if I want. I’m going to try to convey this method in this post.
Much of my understanding of... | 2024-05-12 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CoqFpaorNHsWxRzvz/what-comes-after-roam-s-renaissance | CoqFpaorNHsWxRzvz | What comes after Roam's renaissance? | itay-dreyfus | A new year has come. It's 2024 and note-taking isn’t cool anymore. The once-blooming space has had its moment. Moreover, the almighty Roam Research isn’t the only king anymore.
The hype is officially over.
At this time of year, when many are busy reflecting on the past year while excitingly looking into the future, I r... | 2024-05-12 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zCN5KQju2AXr8Y7Bj/the-natural-selection-of-bad-vibes-part-1 | zCN5KQju2AXr8Y7Bj | The Natural Selection of Bad Vibes
(Part 1) | Kevin Dorst | TLDR: Things seem bad. But chart-wielding optimists keep telling us that things are better than they’ve ever been. What gives? Hypothesis: the point of conversation is to solve problems, so public discourse will focus on the problems—making us all think that things are worse than they are. A computational model predict... | 2024-05-12 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j9MKHgLD3yshN5SJF/beware-unfinished-bridges | j9MKHgLD3yshN5SJF | Beware unfinished bridges | adamzerner | This guy don't wanna battle, he's shook
'Cause ain't no such things as halfway crooks
- 8 Mile
There is a commonly cited typology of cyclists where cyclists are divided into four groups:
Strong & Fearless (will ride in car lanes)Enthused & Confident (will ride in unprotected bike lanes)Interested but Concerned (will ri... | 2024-05-12 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wQxjf67tnfJPG33ju/why-i-find-davidad-s-plan-interesting | wQxjf67tnfJPG33ju | Why I find Davidad's plan interesting | Paul W | Abstract
The aim of this text is to give an overview of Davidad’s safety plan, while also outlining some of the limitations and challenges. Additionally, I’ll explain why I would like to contribute to this field.
Disclaimers
I am not Davidad, I tried to convey his ideas as I understand them. While my interpretation may... | 2024-05-20 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mDHiTTf3maDj8W9oL/if-language-is-for-communication-what-does-that-imply-about | mDHiTTf3maDj8W9oL | If language is for communication, what does that imply about LLMs? | bill-benzon | Noam Chomsky famously believes that language originated to facilitate thought, but then came to be a medium of communication. Others believe the reverse, that it originated as a facility for communication which turned out to facilitate thinking. That is certainly my view.
If that is so, then one would think that langua... | 2024-05-12 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BRZf42vpFcHtSTraD/linkpost-towards-a-theoretical-understanding-of-the-reversal | BRZf42vpFcHtSTraD | [Linkpost] Towards a Theoretical Understanding of the 'Reversal Curse' via Training Dynamics | bogdan-ionut-cirstea | The excerpts below seem to me like a slight update towards arguments about the weakness of one-forward-passes in transformers and for agendas like externalized reasoning and translucent thoughts. They also suggest out-of-context reasoning (OOCR) might remain hard for transformer-based LMs (they currently do very poorly... | 2024-05-11 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AhwgnWg95Wt4PfXik/deriving-the-geometric-utilitarian-weights | AhwgnWg95Wt4PfXik | Deriving the Geometric Utilitarian Weights | StrivingForLegibility | This is a supplemental post to Geometric Utilitarianism (And Why It Matters), in which I show how I derived the weights ψ which make any Pareto optimal point p optimal according to the geometric weighted average. This is a subproblem of the proof laid out in the first post of this sequence, and the main post describes ... | 2024-08-07 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zAqqeXcau9y2yiJdi/can-we-build-a-better-public-doublecrux | zAqqeXcau9y2yiJdi | Can we build a better Public Doublecrux? | Raemon | Something I'd like to try at LessOnline is to somehow iterate on the "Public Doublecrux" format. I'm not sure if I'll end up focusing on it, but here are some ideas.
Public Doublecrux is a more truthseeking oriented version of Public Debate. The goal of a debate is to change your opponent's mind or the public's mind. T... | 2024-05-11 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zhDkFvMFvyxhbfsrg/how-do-i-get-better-at-d-and-d-sci | zhDkFvMFvyxhbfsrg | How do I get better at D&D Sci? | FinalFormal2 | I have no experience with data science, but D&D Sci seems fun and I would like to improve and get better at it. Where can/should I start? | 2024-05-11 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3zHB5ypPfYs7mm9m7/resources-for-learning-about-poise-gracefulness | 3zHB5ypPfYs7mm9m7 | Resources for learning about poise / gracefulness? | David_Gross | I'm doing some initial investigation for a Notes on Virtues sequence write-up about poise & gracefulness (possibly touching also on related things like confidence, composure, cool, gravitas, command, bearing, etc.) seen as a virtue (a characteristic habit that promotes or exhibits human flourishing).
Can you recommend ... | 2024-05-11 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nAR6yhptyMuwPLokc/new-intro-textbook-on-aixi | nAR6yhptyMuwPLokc | New intro textbook on AIXI | Alex_Altair | Marcus Hutter and his PhD students David Quarel and Elliot Catt have just published a new textbook called An Introduction to Universal Artificial Intelligence.
"Universal AI" refers to the body of theory surrounding Hutter's AIXI, which is a model of ideal agency combining Solomonoff induction and reinforcement learnin... | 2024-05-11 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WnmToqeeLcxHFjLDi/questions-are-usually-too-cheap | WnmToqeeLcxHFjLDi | Questions are usually too cheap | Nathan Young | It is easier to ask than to answer.
That’s my whole point.
It is much cheaper to ask questions than answer them so beware of situations where it is implied that asking and answering are equal.
Here are some examples:
Let's say there is a maths game. I get a minute to ask questions. You get a minute to answer them. If y... | 2024-05-11 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HvMJ8pgbFeBKZsy2t/dead-post-2 | HvMJ8pgbFeBKZsy2t | dead post 2 | David Chapel | null | 2024-05-11 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BvaJzoFJ4JqukP3kp/ethics-and-prospects-of-ai-related-jobs | BvaJzoFJ4JqukP3kp | Ethics and prospects of AI related jobs? | dr_s | I've been on the lookout for new jobs recently and one thing I have noticed is that the market seems flooded with ads for AI-related jobs. What I mean is not work on building models (or aligning them, alas), but rather, work on building applications using generative AI or other advances to make new software products.
M... | 2024-05-11 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8pmimprBizW8Qpf5o/should-i-finish-my-bachelor-s-degree | 8pmimprBizW8Qpf5o | Should I Finish My Bachelor's Degree? | Zack_M_Davis | To some, it might seem like a strange question. If you think of being college-educated as a marker of class (or personhood), the fact that I don't have a degree at age of thirty-six (!!) probably looks like a scandalous anomaly, which it would be only natural for me to want to remediate at the earliest opportunity.
I d... | 2024-05-11 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xLvQwZFq5onx6pABT/custom-audio-switch-box | xLvQwZFq5onx6pABT | Custom Audio Switch Box | jkaufman | When I play live I have a bunch of instruments, including:
Mandolin: an electric mandolin
Computer: a custom MIDI mapper driven by keyboard, foot drums, and
breath controller.
Bass whistle: a whistle-controlled
bass synthesizer
I also have some effects, primarily a talkbox
and an audio-to-audio synth
pedal. Normally I... | 2024-05-11 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z87fSrxQb4yLXKcTk/mats-winter-2023-24-retrospective | Z87fSrxQb4yLXKcTk | MATS Winter 2023-24 Retrospective | utilistrutil | Co-Authors: @Rocket, @LauraVaughan, @McKennaFitzgerald, @Christian Smith, @Juan Gil, @Henry Sleight, @Matthew Wearden, @Ryan Kidd
The ML Alignment & Theory Scholars program (MATS) is an education and research mentorship program for researchers entering the field of AI safety. This winter, we held the fifth iteration of... | 2024-05-11 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6C3ndLd3nkrfy4K6j/if-we-go-extinct-due-to-misaligned-ai-at-least-nature-will | 6C3ndLd3nkrfy4K6j | "If we go extinct due to misaligned AI, at least nature will continue, right? ... right?" | ete | [memetic status: stating directly despite it being a clear consequence of core AI risk knowledge because many people have "but nature will survive us" antibodies to other classes of doom and misapply them here.]
Unfortunately, no.[1]
Technically, “Nature”, meaning the fundamental physical laws, will continue. However, ... | 2024-05-18 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HWdyfGpQJKo35Hurg/podcast-with-yoshua-bengio-on-why-ai-labs-are-playing-dice | HWdyfGpQJKo35Hurg | Podcast with Yoshua Bengio on Why AI Labs are “Playing Dice with Humanity’s Future” | garrison | null | 2024-05-10 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yCQQ6FHFsZwBXvKiM/what-do-you-value | yCQQ6FHFsZwBXvKiM | What do you value ? | akram-choudhary | In light of all of the talk about AI, utility functions, value alignment etc. I decided to spend some time thinking about what my actual values are. I encourage you to do the same (yes both of you). Lower values on the list are less important to me but not qualitatively less important. For example some of value 2 is no... | 2024-05-10 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9bnakjbaKxsfcHjAo/dead-post-1 | 9bnakjbaKxsfcHjAo | dead post 1 | David Chapel | null | 2024-05-10 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o7LGpwxbg7SKWJtXX/do-you-know-of-lists-of-p-doom-s-ai-forecasts-ai-quotes | o7LGpwxbg7SKWJtXX | Do you know of lists of p(doom)s/AI forecasts/ AI quotes? | Nathan Young | I am trying to gather a list of answers/quotes from public figures to the following questions:
What are the chances that AI will cause human extinction?Will AI automate most human labour?Should advanced AI models be open source?Do humans have a moral duty to build artificial superintelligence?Should there be internatio... | 2024-05-10 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PBiLwTMppMhnxhZve/have-any-parties-in-the-current-european-parliamentary | PBiLwTMppMhnxhZve | Have any parties in the current European Parliamentary Election made public statements on AI? | MondSemmel | The European parliamentary election is currently taking place (voting period: 2024-04-07 to 2024-07-10). While I assume my vote[1] has ~no impact on x-risk either way, I'd nonetheless like to take into account if parties have made public statements on AI. But I'm not sure they do. Does anyone know, or how to find out?
... | 2024-05-10 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zyN7K8NB8RzAft7KZ/linear-infra-bayesian-bandits | zyN7K8NB8RzAft7KZ | Linear infra-Bayesian Bandits | vanessa-kosoy | Linked is my MSc thesis, where I do regret analysis for an infra-Bayesian[1] generalization of stochastic linear bandits.
The main significance that I see in this work is:
Expanding our understanding of infra-Bayesian regret bounds, and solidifying our confidence that infra-Bayesianism is a viable approach. Previously,... | 2024-05-10 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w6vEJD3dtekaLgLME/shortest-goddamn-bayes-guide-ever | w6vEJD3dtekaLgLME | shortest goddamn bayes guide ever | lcmgcd | // ODDS = YEP:NOPE
YEP, NOPE = MAKE UP SOME INITIAL ODDS WHO CARES
FOR EACH E IN EVIDENCE
YEP *= CHANCE OF E IF YEP
NOPE *= CHANCE OF E IF NOPE
The thing to remember is that yeps and nopes never cross. The colon is a thick & rubbery barrier. Yep with yep and nope with nope.
bear : notbear =
1:100 odds to encounter a be... | 2024-05-10 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YBamy2j3fQRojqQeg/the-alignment-problem-no-one-is-talking-about | YBamy2j3fQRojqQeg | The Alignment Problem No One Is Talking About | james-brown | The following is the first in a 6 part series about humanity's own alignment problem, one we need to solve, first.
What Is Alignment?
ALIGNMENT OF INTERESTS
When I began exploring non-zero-sum games, I soon discovered that achieving win-win scenarios in the real world is essentially about one thing - the alignment of i... | 2024-05-10 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RTiuLzusJWyepFpbN/why-care-about-natural-latents | RTiuLzusJWyepFpbN | Why Care About Natural Latents? | johnswentworth | Suppose Alice and Bob are two Bayesian agents in the same environment. They both basically understand how their environment works, so they generally agree on predictions about any specific directly-observable thing in the world - e.g. whenever they try to operationalize a bet, they find that their odds are roughly the ... | 2024-05-09 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NPK5gQzxzXx5Jjoaq/new-to-this-community | NPK5gQzxzXx5Jjoaq | New to this community | kjsisco | Hello. I am a computer security consultant, programmer specializing in PC games, and podcaster. I am most interested in AI alignment and ethical development and I hope to learn from all of you. | 2024-05-10 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vEeoXYMvfjyTiWv2M/what-i-learned-from-doing-quiz-bowl | vEeoXYMvfjyTiWv2M | What I learned from doing Quiz Bowl | g-w1 | I did Quiz Bowl throughout my time in high school, and looking back on it, it was a pretty positive thing to do! In this blog post, I want to make a list of some of the life lessons I have taken from Quiz Bowl.
If you know about Quiz Bowl, just skip to the next paragraph. For the uninitiated, Quiz Bowl is a team activi... | 2024-05-09 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qmxK9thLfMBLGFKwd/pascal-s-mugging-and-the-order-of-quantification | qmxK9thLfMBLGFKwd | Pascal's Mugging and the Order of Quantification | Mascal's Pugging | One of the fun things to do when learning first order logic is to consider how the meaning of propositions dramatically changes based on small switches in the syntax. This is in contrast to natural language, where the meaning of a phrase can be ambiguous and we naturally use context clues to determine the correct inter... | 2024-05-10 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ANGmJnZL2fskHX6tj/dyslucksia | ANGmJnZL2fskHX6tj | Dyslucksia | DarkSym | The curious tale of how I mistook my dyslexia for stupidity - and talked, sang, and drew my way out of it.
Sometimes I tell people I’m dyslexic and they don’t believe me. I love to read, I can mostly write without error, and I’m fluent in more than one language.
Also, I don’t actually technically know if I’m dyslectic ... | 2024-05-09 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2MTtKzbxeXDXTJhC2/introducing-statistical-utility-mechanics-a-framework-for | 2MTtKzbxeXDXTJhC2 | Introducing Statistical Utility Mechanics: A Framework for Utility Maximizers | Jemist | This is independent alignment research. A decent grasp on stat mech is needed to understand this post fully, but I have recently written a stat mech sequence (up to part 3) which should do the trick to catch someone up to speed rapidly.
TL;DR
Statistical Utility Mechanics is a framework which draws on stat mech to mode... | 2024-05-15 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Fgykut9sBmS3uiKsi/has-generative-ai-already-peaked-computerphile | Fgykut9sBmS3uiKsi | Has Generative AI Already Peaked? - Computerphile | davidfriva | null | 2024-05-09 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZmdzizGSkbewojKAK/thoughts-on-the-relative-economic-benefits-of-polyamorous | ZmdzizGSkbewojKAK | Thoughts on the relative economic benefits of polyamorous relationships? | OKlogic | I have a limited desire to pursue polyamory, but I have a strong inclination that when properly managed, a stable polycule would be far more economically efficient.
Has any serious literature (books, studies, ect) been published on this question? Any thoughts?*
Off the top of my head:
Advantages of Monogamy:
Less of ri... | 2024-05-09 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dLwo67p7zBuPsjG5t/we-might-be-missing-some-key-feature-of-ai-takeoff-it-ll | dLwo67p7zBuPsjG5t | We might be missing some key feature of AI takeoff; it'll probably seem like "we could've seen this coming" | Lukas_Gloor | Predicting the future is hard, so it’s no surprise that we occasionally miss important developments.
However, several times recently, in the contexts of Covid forecasting and AI progress, I noticed that I missed some crucial feature of a development I was interested in getting right, and it felt to me like I could’ve s... | 2024-05-09 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NozxxqJwbaoEhLggk/four-unrelated-is-over | NozxxqJwbaoEhLggk | Four Unrelated Is Over | jkaufman | Somerville historically had a zoning ordinance limiting housing units
to at most four unrelated people:
any number of persons related by blood, marriage, adoption, or
foster care agreement and up to three (3) additional unrelated persons
living together as a single housekeeping unit
This is something I'd been
unhappy a... | 2024-05-09 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RHMA26L3i5ChiCjYN/ai-and-chemical-biological-radiological-and-nuclear-hazards | RHMA26L3i5ChiCjYN | AI and Chemical, Biological, Radiological, & Nuclear Hazards: A Regulatory Review | elliot | This article is last in a series of 10 posts comprising a 2024 State of the AI Regulatory Landscape Review, conducted by the Governance Recommendations Research Program at Convergence Analysis. Each post will cover a specific domain of AI governance, such as incident reporting, safety evals, model registries, and more.... | 2024-05-10 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FrBxFa3qMDvLypDEZ/ai-63-introducing-alpha-fold-3 | FrBxFa3qMDvLypDEZ | AI #63: Introducing Alpha Fold 3 | Zvi | It was a remarkably quiet announcement. We now have Alpha Fold 3, it does a much improved job predicting all of life’s molecules and their interactions. It feels like everyone including me then shrugged and went back to thinking about other things. No cool new toy for most of us to personally play with, no existential ... | 2024-05-09 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2BvfGnZMx4Ei82qkk/i-got-95-theses-but-a-glitch-ain-t-one | 2BvfGnZMx4Ei82qkk | I Got 95 Theses But a Glitch Ain’t One | Zvi | Or rather Samuel Hammond does. Tyler Cowen finds it interesting but not his view.
I put up a market, and then started looking. Click through to his post for the theses. I will be quoting a few of them in full, but not most of them.
I am not trying to be exact with these probabilities when the question calls for them, n... | 2024-05-09 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KACMy4WtKBtr4wkDs/the-human-s-role-in-mesa-optimization | KACMy4WtKBtr4wkDs | The Human's Role in Mesa Optimization | silentbob | When it comes to mesa optimization, there’s usually two optimizers mentioned: the “base optimizer”, such as SGD, the process used for training the model. And the “mesa optimizer”, meaning roughly “the optimizer beneath the optimizer”. One key question in this context is when and under which circumstances such mesa opti... | 2024-05-09 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j6EhfL2hRubaKL9ca/my-thesis-algorithmic-bayesian-epistemology-explained-in | j6EhfL2hRubaKL9ca | My thesis (Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology) explained in more depth | UnexpectedValues | In March I posted a very short description of my PhD thesis, Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology, on LessWrong. I've now written a more in-depth summary for my blog, Unexpected Values. Here's the full post:
***
In January, I defended my PhD thesis. My thesis is called Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology, and it’s about pre... | 2024-05-09 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3a6ZG6MNTMiYzddvf/visualizing-neural-network-planning | 3a6ZG6MNTMiYzddvf | Visualizing neural network planning | nevan-wichers | TLDR
We develop a technique to try and detect if a NN is doing planning internally. We apply the decoder to the intermediate representations of the network to see if it’s representing the states it’s planning through internally. We successfully reveal intermediate states in a simple Game of Life model, but find no evid... | 2024-05-09 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zMaRRKvbiwJpQzaTe/forecasting-the-way-i-think-about-it | zMaRRKvbiwJpQzaTe | Forecasting: the way I think about it | hickman-santini | This is the first post in a little series I'm slowly writing on how I see forecasting, particularly conditional forecasting; what it's good for; and whether we should expect people to agree if they just talk to each other enough.
Views are my own. I work at the Forecasting Research Institute (FRI), I forecast with the ... | 2024-05-09 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XtYuFgPWyopyzuLbv/some-thoughts-on-lessonline | XtYuFgPWyopyzuLbv | some thoughts on LessOnline | Raemon | I mostly wrote this for facebook, but it ended up being a whole-ass post so I figured I'd put it here too.
I'm helping run "LessOnline: A Festival of Writers Who Are Wrong On the Internet (But Striving To Be Less So)".
I'm incentivized to say nice things about the event. So, grain of salt and all. But, some thoughts, w... | 2024-05-08 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NitP3AsMeuycJQbfa/retrospective-on-mathematical-boundaries-workshop | NitP3AsMeuycJQbfa | Retrospective on Mathematical Boundaries Workshop | miyazono | mostly written by Evan Miyazono
Minimum viable introduction
We ran a workshop on Mathematical Boundaries from April 10-14. This was the successor of the Conceptual Boundaries Workshop (retrospective, last update) Feb 10-12The overlap in participants and approach was fairly low (notably lower than intended, due to avail... | 2024-05-12 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ueE7bBCvRMT2DWuyJ/zero-sum-defeats-nash-equilibrium | ueE7bBCvRMT2DWuyJ | Zero-Sum Defeats Nash Equilibrium | richard-henage | Bike locks are a good example. There are twenty bikes at the bike rack in the parking lot. Some bike riders decide to buy bike locks for their bikes to protect them from theft. But this just means that the thieves steal other, unprotected bikes from the rack. The problem wasn't solved, just moved around. The wary bike ... | 2024-05-08 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SkN4fErLksRh7HRpu/experience-switching-to-right-shoulder-round | SkN4fErLksRh7HRpu | Experience Switching to Right Shoulder Round | jkaufman | Contra dance has a figure where two people walk a small circle looking
at each other. When it was introduced into contra in the 1970s as a
borrowing from ECD, it had the name "gypsy", originally
from
Morris dancing, but many communities now use "right shoulder
round".
In many dance communities the debate over whether ... | 2024-05-08 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e9soWGZ9ceEbRKjv2/how-do-top-ai-labs-vet-architecture-algorithm-changes | e9soWGZ9ceEbRKjv2 | How do top AI labs vet architecture/algorithm changes? | ghostwheel | How do labs working at or near the frontier assess major architecture and/or algorithm changes before committing huge compute resources to try them out? For example, how do they assess stability and sample efficiency without having to do full-scale runs? | 2024-05-08 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BPpeBH8brSCRvZajs/how-to-be-an-amateur-polyglot | BPpeBH8brSCRvZajs | How to be an amateur polyglot | arisalexis | Setting the stage
Being a polyglot is a problem of definition first. Who can be described as a polyglot? At what level do you actually “speak” the given language? Some sources cite that polyglot means speaking more than 4 languages, others 6. My take is it doesn’t matter. I am more interested in the definition of when ... | 2024-05-08 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PLoz68JbTkDufeYSG/dating-roundup-3-third-time-s-the-charm | PLoz68JbTkDufeYSG | Dating Roundup #3: Third Time’s the Charm | Zvi | The first speculated on why you’re still single. We failed to settle the issue. A lot of you were indeed still single. So the debate continues.
The second gave more potential reasons, starting with the suspicion that you are not even trying, and also many ways you are likely trying wrong.
The definition of insanity is ... | 2024-05-08 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yeezBxTLaEcDorYLr/feeling-instrumentally-rational | yeezBxTLaEcDorYLr | Feeling (instrumentally) Rational | pi-rogers | Contra this post from the Sequences
In Eliezer's sequence post, he makes the following (excellent) point:
I can’t find any theorem of probability theory which proves that I should appear ice-cold and expressionless.
This debunks the then-widely-held view that rationality is counter to emotions. He then goes on to claim... | 2024-05-16 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7pdCh4MBFT6YXLL2a/is-there-a-power-play-overhang | 7pdCh4MBFT6YXLL2a | Is There a Power Play Overhang? | crispweed | This post is about risks in the development of increasingly capable AI, in particular the risk of losing control to AI and extinction risk. I'll suggest that a key question is, "When do we need to take this kind of risk seriously?"
We'll look at the issue of 'agency overhang', which suggests that adding agent-like abil... | 2024-05-08 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gJGYDsyxj3rZDp86E/geometric-utilitarianism-and-why-it-matters | gJGYDsyxj3rZDp86E | Geometric Utilitarianism (And Why It Matters) | StrivingForLegibility | Do you like using numbers to represent uncertainty and preference, but also care about things like fairness and consent? Are you an altruist on a budget, looking to do the most good with some of your resources, but want to pursue other goals too? Are you looking for a way to align systems to the interests of many peopl... | 2024-05-12 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v38y5zYYzZJLgGtRn/let-s-design-a-school-part-2-2-school-as-education-the | v38y5zYYzZJLgGtRn | Let's Design A School, Part 2.2
School as Education - The Curriculum (General) | Sable | The problem you run into when designing a curriculum is that you have to decide what you want students to learn.
The problem with deciding what you want students to learn is that your decisions will inevitably end up being a reflection of your values. It isn’t a task that can be done objectively.
Do you prioritize STEM... | 2024-05-07 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7NvKrqoQgJkZJmcuD/instruction-following-agi-is-easier-and-more-likely-than | 7NvKrqoQgJkZJmcuD | Instruction-following AGI is easier and more likely than value aligned AGI | Seth Herd | Summary:
We think a lot about aligning AGI with human values. I think it’s more likely that we’ll try to make the first AGIs do something else. This might intuitively be described as trying to make instruction-following (IF) or do-what-I-mean-and-check (DWIMAC) be the central goal of the AGI we design. Adopting this go... | 2024-05-15 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/szn26nTwJDBkhn8ka/deep-honesty | szn26nTwJDBkhn8ka | Deep Honesty | aletheo | Most people avoid saying literally false things, especially if those could be audited, like making up facts or credentials. The reasons for this are both moral and pragmatic — being caught out looks really bad, and sustaining lies is quite hard, especially over time. Let’s call the habit of not saying things you know t... | 2024-05-07 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XCzg4uJCHTJNkzyo3/designing-for-a-single-purpose | XCzg4uJCHTJNkzyo3 | Designing for a single purpose | itay-dreyfus | If you’ve ever been to Amsterdam, you’ve probably visited, or at least heard about the famous cookie store that sells only one cookie. I mean, not a piece, but a single flavor.
I’m talking about Van Stapele Koekmakerij of course—where you can get one of the world's most delicious chocolate chip cookies. If not arriving... | 2024-05-07 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7LsHtsLTjrpknfzb3/reflections-on-smileys-and-how-to-make-society-s | 7LsHtsLTjrpknfzb3 | reflections on smileys and how to make society's interpretive priors more charitable | Emrik North | Hi : )
I used to use smileys in my writing all the time (more than I do now!). but then I read Against Disclaimers, and I thought that every time I used a smiley I wud make people who don't use smileys seem less friendly (bc my conspicuous-friendliness wud be available as a contrast to others' behaviour). so instead,... | 2024-05-07 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jDHovbGkPXtceFsKc/virtual-book-club-on-nick-bostrom-s-deep-utopia-life-and-1 | jDHovbGkPXtceFsKc | Virtual Book Club on Nick Bostrom's "Deep Utopia: Life and Meaning in a Solved World" | beatrice@foresight.org | Hello everyone,
We are excited to invite you to an informal virtual Book Club on Nick Bostrom’s latest work, "Deep Utopia: Life and Meaning in a Solved World." This gathering is part of the Foresight Institute's Existential Hope Program.
We will host three sessions, diving into different parts of the book.
Book Club Fo... | 2024-05-07 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ajCdM2x7C9KHhhpXX/virtual-book-club-on-nick-bostrom-s-deep-utopia-life-and | ajCdM2x7C9KHhhpXX | Virtual Book Club on Nick Bostrom's "Deep Utopia: Life and Meaning in a Solved World" | beatrice@foresight.org | Hello everyone,
We are excited to invite you to an informal virtual Book Club on Nick Bostrom’s latest work, "Deep Utopia: Life and Meaning in a Solved World." This gathering is part of the Foresight Institute's Existential Hope Program.
We will host three sessions, diving into different parts of the book.
Book Club Fo... | 2024-05-07 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dm3hhsFcima2jYExn/what-is-a-community-that-has-changed-their-behaviour-without | Dm3hhsFcima2jYExn | What is a community that has changed their behaviour without strife? | Nathan Young | null | 2024-05-07 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uar2DEWacHLHPFDdd/mental-masturbation-and-the-intellectual-comfort-zone | uar2DEWacHLHPFDdd | Mental Masturbation and the Intellectual Comfort Zone | declan-molony | I have a particular problem that I like to refer to as Mental Masturbation.
Mental Masturbation: consuming information under the pretense of wanting to learn something useful, but in reality I’m “getting myself off” by indulging in subjects I’m already well-versed in.
A personal example:
I’ve read more than a dozen boo... | 2024-05-07 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q6Tky4RzEmTwfGndB/axrp-episode-31-singular-learning-theory-with-daniel-murfet | q6Tky4RzEmTwfGndB | AXRP Episode 31 - Singular Learning Theory with Daniel Murfet | DanielFilan | YouTube link
What’s going on with deep learning? What sorts of models get learned, and what are the learning dynamics? Singular learning theory is a theory of Bayesian statistics broad enough in scope to encompass deep neural networks that may help answer these questions. In this episode, I speak with Daniel Murfet abo... | 2024-05-07 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/apZ7oEphqPsoEBgdp/how-do-open-ai-models-affect-incentive-to-race | apZ7oEphqPsoEBgdp | How do open AI models affect incentive to race? | jessica.liu.taylor | I see it said sometimes that open models contribute to AI race dynamics. My guess is that they don't, and if anything, reduce AI race dynamics.
I will consider a simplified model that only takes into account the cost of training a model, not the cost to deploy it (which tends to be small relative to revenue anyway). Le... | 2024-05-07 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X2XMFPg6pTeGC3YFd/taming-infinity-stat-mech-part-3 | X2XMFPg6pTeGC3YFd | Taming Infinity (Stat Mech Part 3) | Jemist | The canonical example of quantum mechanics in action is the harmonic oscillator, which is something like a mass on a spring. In classical mechanics, it wobbles back and forth periodically when it is given energy, if it's at a position x, wobbling about x0 and moving with velocty v we can say its energy contains a poten... | 2024-05-15 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AdS3P7Afu8izj2knw/orthogonality-thesis-burden-of-proof | AdS3P7Afu8izj2knw | Orthogonality Thesis burden of proof | donatas-luciunas | Quote from Orthogonality Thesis:
It has been pointed out that the orthogonality thesis is the default position, and that the burden of proof is on claims that limit possible AIs.
I tried to tell you that Orthogonality Thesis is wrong few times already. But I've been misunderstood and downvoted every time. What would yo... | 2024-05-06 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QwsyNzdPeDWLrG9gC/navigating-llm-embedding-spaces-using-archetype-based | QwsyNzdPeDWLrG9gC | Navigating LLM embedding spaces using archetype-based directions | mwatkins | TL;DR This research presents a novel method for exploring LLM embedding space using the Major Arcana of the tarot as archetypal anchors. The approach generates "archetype-based directions" in GPT-J's embedding space, along which words and concepts "mutate" in meaning, revealing intricate networks of association. These ... | 2024-05-08 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8gCsRPxvXyAZJLcwd/gdp-per-capita-in-2050 | 8gCsRPxvXyAZJLcwd | GDP per capita in 2050 | hauke-hillebrandt | null | 2024-05-06 |
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j6mi9ubiKLnGsDcLE/reviewing-the-structure-of-current-ai-regulations | j6mi9ubiKLnGsDcLE | Reviewing the Structure of Current AI Regulations | deric-cheng | This report is one in a series of ~10 posts comprising a 2024 State of the AI Regulatory Landscape Review, conducted by the Governance Recommendations Research Program at Convergence Analysis. Each post will cover a specific domain of AI governance (such as incident reporting, safety evals, model registries, and more).... | 2024-05-07 |
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