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https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZuKfs5Ank2zbgCcPG/a-narrative-history-of-environmentalism-s-partisanship
ZuKfs5Ank2zbgCcPG
A Narrative History of Environmentalism's Partisanship
jeffrey-heninger
This is the second in a sequence of four posts taken from my recent report: Why Did Environmentalism Become Partisan? Many of the specific claims made here are investigated in the full report. If you want to know more about how fossil fuel companies’ campaign contributions, the partisan lean of academia, or newspapers’...
2024-05-14
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D6nTSEdCcbGQKCfc2/teaching-cs-during-take-off
D6nTSEdCcbGQKCfc2
Teaching CS During Take-Off
andrew-carle
I stayed up too late collecting way-past-deadline papers and writing report cards. When I woke up at 6, this anxious email from one of my g11 Computer Science students was already in my Inbox. Student: Hello Mr. Carle, I hope you've slept well; I haven't. I've been seeing a lot of new media regarding how developed AI h...
2024-05-14
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/g7H2sSGHAeYxCHzrz/how-much-ai-inference-can-we-do
g7H2sSGHAeYxCHzrz
How much AI inference can we do?
Benjamin_Todd
Suppose you have a bunch of GPUs. How many LLM forward passes can you do with them?[1] This is relevant to figuring out how profitable AI will be in the short-term, how powerful AI systems might be able to come in the near future, how large the compute overhang will be and other strategic questions. Here’s my attempt t...
2024-05-14
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEfy9Dqin7nEJ9Fbs/how-to-do-conceptual-research-case-study-interview-with
QEfy9Dqin7nEJ9Fbs
How to do conceptual research: Case study interview with Caspar Oesterheld
Chi Nguyen
Caspar Oesterheld came up with two of the most important concepts in my field of work: Evidential Cooperation in Large Worlds and Safe Pareto Improvements. He also came up with a potential implementation of evidential decision theory in boundedly rational agents called decision auctions, wrote a comprehensive review of...
2024-05-14
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XAcX4mguEsLBbus3b/in-the-context-of-ai-interp-what-is-a-feature-exactly
XAcX4mguEsLBbus3b
In the context of AI interp. What is a feature exactly?
joshua-bello
As I read more about previous interpretability work, I've noticed this trend that implicitly defines a feature in this weird human centric way. It's this weird prior that expects networks to automatically generate features that correspond with how we process images/text because... why exactly? Chris Olah's team at Anth...
2024-05-14
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/soQfebadmZgWDeD5Y/announcing-the-ai-safety-summit-talks-with-yoshua-bengio
soQfebadmZgWDeD5Y
Announcing the AI Safety Summit Talks with Yoshua Bengio
otto-barten
At the Existential Risk Observatory, we focus on reducing AI existential risk by informing the public debate. One way we do this is by organizing events, such as before the AI Safety Summit. We did this last time in Bletchley Park, and we're now doing it again, fully remote, between the two days (21-22 May) of the Seou...
2024-05-14
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Y92zrj9RxMPThrN6/the-greater-goal-sharing-knowledge-with-the-cosmos
6Y92zrj9RxMPThrN6
The Greater Goal: Sharing Knowledge with the Cosmos
pda.everyday
Our planet faces numerous risks, from natural disasters to technological threats. By transmitting AI models as data into space now, we could proactively safeguard our intellectual heritage against potential future catastrophes that could wipe out intelligent life on Earth. We could enable potential existing extraterres...
2024-05-14
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2BTTLCubuwA6scoqR/can-ai-partners-make-human-ones-pale-in-comparison
2BTTLCubuwA6scoqR
Can AI partners make human ones pale in comparison?
false
We normally view AI as cold, pragmatic, and, maybe, even socially awkward. The risks we identify reflect this stereotype. Just consider the paperclip maximizer; a superintelligent AI is asked to manage a paperclip factory. As it is trying to maximize the paperclip production, it quickly realizes that humans waste a who...
2024-05-14
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BvafEHRwkFzYBYRiQ/what-are-non-zero-sum-games-a-primer
BvafEHRwkFzYBYRiQ
What Are Non-Zero-Sum Games?—A Primer
james-brown
Originally published at https://nonzerosum.games. Come visit for the full experience. From the genetic lottery we’re thrown into at birth, to the educational opportunities we navigate, the jobs we compete for, and the relationships we cultivate — every stage in life is marked by wins and losses, strategies and tactics,...
2024-05-18
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6MCd2txDNJvK4Yrg9/a-positive-double-standard-self-help-principles-work-for
6MCd2txDNJvK4Yrg9
A Positive Double Standard—Self-Help Principles Work For Individuals Not Populations
james-brown
This story is reposted from nonzerosum.games where it appears in it’s intended form, full colour with functioning interactive elements, jump over to the site for the authentic experience. I have a confession: As a teenager I was desperate to learn how to win friends and influence people, to think and grow rich and deve...
2024-05-22
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mjY4heZpqjshNJtoF/why-i-ll-keep-my-crummy-drawings-how-generative-ai-art-won-t
mjY4heZpqjshNJtoF
Why I'll Keep My Crummy Drawings—How Generative AI Art Won't Supplant... Art.
james-brown
The other day the post below caught my attention. In its characteristic bad-grammar-ambiguous-origin-meme style, Neo’s sentiment is one I share. As an artist of sorts (it’s the only thing I’m actually qualified for) I see art as more about transformation than creation. I find we (and yes, I include myself) tend to myth...
2024-05-15
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qMcS6xmSgtLL4mpxQ/why-do-we-enjoy-music
qMcS6xmSgtLL4mpxQ
Why do we enjoy music?
metachirality
Enjoying music doesn't seem to have any obvious purpose. Sure you can argue it strengthens social bonds, but why specifically sounds arranged in patterns through time over anything else? At least with humor you can say it's about identifying the generating function of some observation which is sort of like reducing pre...
2024-05-14
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gTPATcjGMoEkiaLyj/emergence-is-a-universal-non-zero-sum-phenomenon
gTPATcjGMoEkiaLyj
Emergence Is a Universal Non-Zero-Sum Phenomenon.
james-brown
Against a torrent of entropy, eddies of complexity arise. We have the non-zero-sum phenomenon of emergence to thank for our very existence. While I concede the problematic nature of the term "Emergence" as detailed by Eliezer Yudkowsky in The Futility of Emergence, this series makes a case for emergence not as an expla...
2024-05-14
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5nfTXn4LrxnTmBWsb/environmentalism-in-the-united-states-is-unusually-partisan
5nfTXn4LrxnTmBWsb
Environmentalism in the United States Is Unusually Partisan
jeffrey-heninger
This is the first in a sequence of four posts taken from my recent report: Why Did Environmentalism Become Partisan? Introduction In the United States, environmentalism is extremely partisan. It might feel like this was inevitable. Caring about the environment, and supporting government action to protect the environmen...
2024-05-13
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KtCgWunZqgbTnP94a/openai-releases-gpt-4o-natively-interfacing-with-text-voice
KtCgWunZqgbTnP94a
OpenAI releases GPT-4o, natively interfacing with text, voice and vision
martinsq
Until now ChatGPT dealt with audio through a pipeline of 3 models: audio transcription, then GPT-4, then text-to-speech. GPT-4o is apparently trained on text, voice and vision so that everything is done natively. You can now interrupt it mid-sentence.It has GPT-4 level intelligence according to benchmarks. 16-shot GPT-...
2024-05-13
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zKjhwt6pPCBMEJ9KJ/gpt-4o-is-out
zKjhwt6pPCBMEJ9KJ
GPT-4o is out
EZ97
OpenAI just announced an improved LLM called GPT-4o. From their website Today, GPT-4o is much better than any existing model at understanding and discussing the images you share. For example, you can now take a picture of a menu in a different language and talk to GPT-4o to translate it, learn about the food's history ...
2024-05-13
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mk4oTFZubvRLZRDiw/somerville-porchfest-thoughts
mk4oTFZubvRLZRDiw
Somerville Porchfest Thoughts
jkaufman
This Saturday was Porchfest in Somerville, an annual festival where musicians around the city play on their porches and people wander around listening. As in the past few years Cecilia and I ( Kingfisher) played for contra dancing: Harris Lapiroff called: If anyone has pictures of videos from the set, I'd love to see ...
2024-05-13
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P9kTkbqcW2PtnHErQ/branding-ai-safety-groups-a-field-guide
P9kTkbqcW2PtnHErQ
Branding AI Safety Groups: A Field Guide
agucova
This article is the first in a series I plan to publish on different aspects of AI Safety group strategy. The aim is that, eventually, these articles will form the basis for a new resource center for AI Safety Groups. Note that these articles aren’t being published in any particular order. TL;DR: AI safety groups shoul...
2024-05-13
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ds5ShpaLLdBzkAuvT/against-student-debt-cancellation-from-all-sides-of-the
Ds5ShpaLLdBzkAuvT
Against Student Debt Cancellation From All Sides of the Political Compass
maxwell-tabarrok
A stance against student debt cancellation doesn’t rely on the assumptions of any single ideology. Strong cases against student debt cancellation can be made based on the fundamental values of any section of the political compass. In no particular order, here are some arguments against student debt cancellation from th...
2024-05-13
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9GLj9DqfpsJBRKHRr/monthly-roundup-18-may-2024
9GLj9DqfpsJBRKHRr
Monthly Roundup #18: May 2024
Zvi
As I note in the third section, I will be attending LessOnline at month’s end at Lighthaven in Berkeley. If that is your kind of event, then consider going, and buy your ticket today before prices go up. This month’s edition was an opportunity to finish off some things that got left out of previous editions or where ev...
2024-05-13
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rELsE8hcprmJLwAXv/tools-to-discern-between-real-and-ai
rELsE8hcprmJLwAXv
Tools to discern between real and AI
daniele-de-nuntiis
What are the best ways to figure out if someone who contacted you / a piece of text / an image is AI generated?
2024-05-13
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8CY9TCK2oaGPrDheY/what-you-really-mean-when-you-claim-to-support-ubi-for-job
8CY9TCK2oaGPrDheY
What you really mean when you claim to support “UBI for job automation”: Part 1
deric-cheng
Author’s Note: Though I’m currently a governance researcher at Convergence Analysis, this post is unaffiliated with Convergence. The opinions expressed are solely my own. You’ve seen it a dozen times at this point. You’re probably broadly aligned philosophically, but haven’t thought terribly deeply about the details. Y...
2024-05-13
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P6LHd2Js7jGdvf4E8/the-two-tiered-society
P6LHd2Js7jGdvf4E8
The two-tiered society
Roman Leventov
On AI and Jobs: How to Make AI Work With Us, Not Against Us With Daron Acemoglu Here is Claude.ai's summary of Daron Acemoglu's main ideas from the podcast: Historically, major productivity improvements from new technologies haven't always translated into benefits for workers. It depends on how the technologies are use...
2024-05-13
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TMNqxfJHZwdQHLZ5D/benefitial-habits-personal-rules-with-very-minimal-tradeoffs
TMNqxfJHZwdQHLZ5D
Benefitial habits/personal rules with very minimal tradeoffs?
Slapstick
I'm looking for personal rules one might live by which adhere to a specific criteria outlined below, following an example. I have a personal rule I've been following which is "No looking at screens in the bed where I sleep" I find this to be an extremely helpful and successful rule despite being someone who struggles t...
2024-05-13
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/orKjt6TneueAezyio/review-of-metr-s-public-evaluation-protocol
orKjt6TneueAezyio
Review of METR’s public evaluation protocol
nahoj
TLDR: We reviewed METR’s “Example evaluation protocol” and found a couple of points where there is room for improvement or unclear information. We also make a couple of suggestions around scoring, outsourcing, etc. This review was done by 2 people without previous knowledge of METR in ~1.5 days at the end of ML4Good UK...
2024-06-30
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gDBuetmcFWNoWSFvC/individual-utilities-shift-continuously-as-geometric-weights
gDBuetmcFWNoWSFvC
Individual Utilities Shift Continuously as Geometric Weights Shift
StrivingForLegibility
This is a supplemental post to Geometric Utilitarianism (And Why It Matters), in which I show that when all agents have positive weight ψi, the optimal geometric weighted average moves continuously across the Pareto frontier as we change those weights. I also show that we can extend this continuity result to all weight...
2024-08-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EHRXKxk2YMKa7oGaw/why-you-should-learn-a-musical-instrument
EHRXKxk2YMKa7oGaw
Why you should learn a musical instrument
cata
I have liked music very much since I was a teenager. I spent many hours late at night in Soulseek chat rooms talking about and sharing music with my online friends. So, I tend to just have some music floating around in my head on any given day. But, I never learned to play any instrument, or use any digital audio softw...
2024-05-15
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jK9Pzb9FfsX7Nnv4y/partitioned-book-club
jK9Pzb9FfsX7Nnv4y
Partitioned Book Club
pixx
Partitioned Book Club (working title) is a specific kind of one-off meetup where attendees coordinate to read different chapters of the same book before the meetup. The meetup consists of each read chapter getting briefly summarized by its reader(s), and then a more general discussion of the book. In a traditional book...
2024-05-12
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oowNan3scknsSdx2X/understanding-rationality-vs-ideology-debates
oowNan3scknsSdx2X
Understanding rationality vs. ideology debates
alenglander
[This was originally intended as a Facebook post, but it grew to the point where it felt way too long for that.] For a while now I've been trying to wrap my head around what I'll loosely call "rationality vs. ideology" debates. Very roughly, these are debates where at least at first glance one side seems to be saying t...
2024-05-12
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iLTtkzATEt6nSgeux/inner-optimization-mechanisms-in-neural-nets
iLTtkzATEt6nSgeux
Inner Optimization Mechanisms in Neural Nets
programcrafter
I believe that current architecture of neural networks supports mesa-optimization: generally speaking, searching across some vectors in order to select one of them, which will be most useful for producing an answer. Three inner optimization ways are already possible, and most likely there will be new ones. Optimization...
2024-05-12
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gwavKiKXf97NLNC2n/building-intuition-with-spaced-repetition-systems
gwavKiKXf97NLNC2n
Building intuition with spaced repetition systems
g-w1
Do you ever go to a lecture, follow it thinking it makes total sense, then look back at your notes later and realize it makes no sense? This used to happen to me, but I’ve learned how to use spaced repetition to fully avoid this if I want. I’m going to try to convey this method in this post. Much of my understanding of...
2024-05-12
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CoqFpaorNHsWxRzvz/what-comes-after-roam-s-renaissance
CoqFpaorNHsWxRzvz
What comes after Roam's renaissance?
itay-dreyfus
A new year has come. It's 2024 and note-taking isn’t cool anymore. The once-blooming space has had its moment. Moreover, the almighty Roam Research isn’t the only king anymore. The hype is officially over. At this time of year, when many are busy reflecting on the past year while excitingly looking into the future, I r...
2024-05-12
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zCN5KQju2AXr8Y7Bj/the-natural-selection-of-bad-vibes-part-1
zCN5KQju2AXr8Y7Bj
The Natural Selection of Bad Vibes (Part 1)
Kevin Dorst
TLDR: Things seem bad. But chart-wielding optimists keep telling us that things are better than they’ve ever been. What gives? Hypothesis: the point of conversation is to solve problems, so public discourse will focus on the problems—making us all think that things are worse than they are. A computational model predict...
2024-05-12
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j9MKHgLD3yshN5SJF/beware-unfinished-bridges
j9MKHgLD3yshN5SJF
Beware unfinished bridges
adamzerner
This guy don't wanna battle, he's shook 'Cause ain't no such things as halfway crooks - 8 Mile There is a commonly cited typology of cyclists where cyclists are divided into four groups: Strong & Fearless (will ride in car lanes)Enthused & Confident (will ride in unprotected bike lanes)Interested but Concerned (will ri...
2024-05-12
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wQxjf67tnfJPG33ju/why-i-find-davidad-s-plan-interesting
wQxjf67tnfJPG33ju
Why I find Davidad's plan interesting
Paul W
Abstract The aim of this text is to give an overview of Davidad’s safety plan, while also outlining some of the limitations and challenges. Additionally, I’ll explain why I would like to contribute to this field. Disclaimers I am not Davidad, I tried to convey his ideas as I understand them. While my interpretation may...
2024-05-20
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mDHiTTf3maDj8W9oL/if-language-is-for-communication-what-does-that-imply-about
mDHiTTf3maDj8W9oL
If language is for communication, what does that imply about LLMs?
bill-benzon
Noam Chomsky famously believes that language originated to facilitate thought, but then came to be a medium of communication. Others believe the reverse, that it originated as a facility for communication which turned out to facilitate thinking. That is certainly my view. If that is so, then one would think that langua...
2024-05-12
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BRZf42vpFcHtSTraD/linkpost-towards-a-theoretical-understanding-of-the-reversal
BRZf42vpFcHtSTraD
[Linkpost] Towards a Theoretical Understanding of the 'Reversal Curse' via Training Dynamics
bogdan-ionut-cirstea
The excerpts below seem to me like a slight update towards arguments about the weakness of one-forward-passes in transformers and for agendas like externalized reasoning and translucent thoughts. They also suggest out-of-context reasoning (OOCR) might remain hard for transformer-based LMs (they currently do very poorly...
2024-05-11
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AhwgnWg95Wt4PfXik/deriving-the-geometric-utilitarian-weights
AhwgnWg95Wt4PfXik
Deriving the Geometric Utilitarian Weights
StrivingForLegibility
This is a supplemental post to Geometric Utilitarianism (And Why It Matters), in which I show how I derived the weights ψ which make any Pareto optimal point p optimal according to the geometric weighted average. This is a subproblem of the proof laid out in the first post of this sequence, and the main post describes ...
2024-08-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zAqqeXcau9y2yiJdi/can-we-build-a-better-public-doublecrux
zAqqeXcau9y2yiJdi
Can we build a better Public Doublecrux?
Raemon
Something I'd like to try at LessOnline is to somehow iterate on the "Public Doublecrux" format. I'm not sure if I'll end up focusing on it, but here are some ideas. Public Doublecrux is a more truthseeking oriented version of Public Debate. The goal of a debate is to change your opponent's mind or the public's mind. T...
2024-05-11
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zhDkFvMFvyxhbfsrg/how-do-i-get-better-at-d-and-d-sci
zhDkFvMFvyxhbfsrg
How do I get better at D&D Sci?
FinalFormal2
I have no experience with data science, but D&D Sci seems fun and I would like to improve and get better at it. Where can/should I start?
2024-05-11
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3zHB5ypPfYs7mm9m7/resources-for-learning-about-poise-gracefulness
3zHB5ypPfYs7mm9m7
Resources for learning about poise / gracefulness?
David_Gross
I'm doing some initial investigation for a Notes on Virtues sequence write-up about poise & gracefulness (possibly touching also on related things like confidence, composure, cool, gravitas, command, bearing, etc.) seen as a virtue (a characteristic habit that promotes or exhibits human flourishing). Can you recommend ...
2024-05-11
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nAR6yhptyMuwPLokc/new-intro-textbook-on-aixi
nAR6yhptyMuwPLokc
New intro textbook on AIXI
Alex_Altair
Marcus Hutter and his PhD students David Quarel and Elliot Catt have just published a new textbook called An Introduction to Universal Artificial Intelligence. "Universal AI" refers to the body of theory surrounding Hutter's AIXI, which is a model of ideal agency combining Solomonoff induction and reinforcement learnin...
2024-05-11
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WnmToqeeLcxHFjLDi/questions-are-usually-too-cheap
WnmToqeeLcxHFjLDi
Questions are usually too cheap
Nathan Young
It is easier to ask than to answer. That’s my whole point. It is much cheaper to ask questions than answer them so beware of situations where it is implied that asking and answering are equal. Here are some examples: Let's say there is a maths game. I get a minute to ask questions. You get a minute to answer them. If y...
2024-05-11
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HvMJ8pgbFeBKZsy2t/dead-post-2
HvMJ8pgbFeBKZsy2t
dead post 2
David Chapel
null
2024-05-11
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BvaJzoFJ4JqukP3kp/ethics-and-prospects-of-ai-related-jobs
BvaJzoFJ4JqukP3kp
Ethics and prospects of AI related jobs?
dr_s
I've been on the lookout for new jobs recently and one thing I have noticed is that the market seems flooded with ads for AI-related jobs. What I mean is not work on building models (or aligning them, alas), but rather, work on building applications using generative AI or other advances to make new software products. M...
2024-05-11
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8pmimprBizW8Qpf5o/should-i-finish-my-bachelor-s-degree
8pmimprBizW8Qpf5o
Should I Finish My Bachelor's Degree?
Zack_M_Davis
To some, it might seem like a strange question. If you think of being college-educated as a marker of class (or personhood), the fact that I don't have a degree at age of thirty-six (!!) probably looks like a scandalous anomaly, which it would be only natural for me to want to remediate at the earliest opportunity. I d...
2024-05-11
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xLvQwZFq5onx6pABT/custom-audio-switch-box
xLvQwZFq5onx6pABT
Custom Audio Switch Box
jkaufman
When I play live I have a bunch of instruments, including: Mandolin: an electric mandolin Computer: a custom MIDI mapper driven by keyboard, foot drums, and breath controller. Bass whistle: a whistle-controlled bass synthesizer I also have some effects, primarily a talkbox and an audio-to-audio synth pedal. Normally I...
2024-05-11
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z87fSrxQb4yLXKcTk/mats-winter-2023-24-retrospective
Z87fSrxQb4yLXKcTk
MATS Winter 2023-24 Retrospective
utilistrutil
Co-Authors: @Rocket, @LauraVaughan, @McKennaFitzgerald, @Christian Smith, @Juan Gil, @Henry Sleight, @Matthew Wearden, @Ryan Kidd The ML Alignment & Theory Scholars program (MATS) is an education and research mentorship program for researchers entering the field of AI safety. This winter, we held the fifth iteration of...
2024-05-11
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6C3ndLd3nkrfy4K6j/if-we-go-extinct-due-to-misaligned-ai-at-least-nature-will
6C3ndLd3nkrfy4K6j
"If we go extinct due to misaligned AI, at least nature will continue, right? ... right?"
ete
[memetic status: stating directly despite it being a clear consequence of core AI risk knowledge because many people have "but nature will survive us" antibodies to other classes of doom and misapply them here.] Unfortunately, no.[1] Technically, “Nature”, meaning the fundamental physical laws, will continue. However, ...
2024-05-18
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HWdyfGpQJKo35Hurg/podcast-with-yoshua-bengio-on-why-ai-labs-are-playing-dice
HWdyfGpQJKo35Hurg
Podcast with Yoshua Bengio on Why AI Labs are “Playing Dice with Humanity’s Future”
garrison
null
2024-05-10
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yCQQ6FHFsZwBXvKiM/what-do-you-value
yCQQ6FHFsZwBXvKiM
What do you value ?
akram-choudhary
In light of all of the talk about AI, utility functions, value alignment etc. I decided to spend some time thinking about what my actual values are. I encourage you to do the same (yes both of you). Lower values on the list are less important to me but not qualitatively less important. For example some of value 2 is no...
2024-05-10
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9bnakjbaKxsfcHjAo/dead-post-1
9bnakjbaKxsfcHjAo
dead post 1
David Chapel
null
2024-05-10
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o7LGpwxbg7SKWJtXX/do-you-know-of-lists-of-p-doom-s-ai-forecasts-ai-quotes
o7LGpwxbg7SKWJtXX
Do you know of lists of p(doom)s/AI forecasts/ AI quotes?
Nathan Young
I am trying to gather a list of answers/quotes from public figures to the following questions: What are the chances that AI will cause human extinction?Will AI automate most human labour?Should advanced AI models be open source?Do humans have a moral duty to build artificial superintelligence?Should there be internatio...
2024-05-10
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PBiLwTMppMhnxhZve/have-any-parties-in-the-current-european-parliamentary
PBiLwTMppMhnxhZve
Have any parties in the current European Parliamentary Election made public statements on AI?
MondSemmel
The European parliamentary election is currently taking place (voting period: 2024-04-07 to 2024-07-10). While I assume my vote[1] has ~no impact on x-risk either way, I'd nonetheless like to take into account if parties have made public statements on AI. But I'm not sure they do. Does anyone know, or how to find out? ...
2024-05-10
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zyN7K8NB8RzAft7KZ/linear-infra-bayesian-bandits
zyN7K8NB8RzAft7KZ
Linear infra-Bayesian Bandits
vanessa-kosoy
Linked is my MSc thesis, where I do regret analysis for an infra-Bayesian[1] generalization of stochastic linear bandits. The main significance that I see in this work is: Expanding our understanding of infra-Bayesian regret bounds, and solidifying our confidence that infra-Bayesianism is a viable approach. Previously,...
2024-05-10
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w6vEJD3dtekaLgLME/shortest-goddamn-bayes-guide-ever
w6vEJD3dtekaLgLME
shortest goddamn bayes guide ever
lcmgcd
// ODDS = YEP:NOPE YEP, NOPE = MAKE UP SOME INITIAL ODDS WHO CARES FOR EACH E IN EVIDENCE YEP *= CHANCE OF E IF YEP NOPE *= CHANCE OF E IF NOPE The thing to remember is that yeps and nopes never cross. The colon is a thick & rubbery barrier. Yep with yep and nope with nope. bear : notbear = 1:100 odds to encounter a be...
2024-05-10
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YBamy2j3fQRojqQeg/the-alignment-problem-no-one-is-talking-about
YBamy2j3fQRojqQeg
The Alignment Problem No One Is Talking About
james-brown
The following is the first in a 6 part series about humanity's own alignment problem, one we need to solve, first. What Is Alignment? ALIGNMENT OF INTERESTS When I began exploring non-zero-sum games, I soon discovered that achieving win-win scenarios in the real world is essentially about one thing - the alignment of i...
2024-05-10
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RTiuLzusJWyepFpbN/why-care-about-natural-latents
RTiuLzusJWyepFpbN
Why Care About Natural Latents?
johnswentworth
Suppose Alice and Bob are two Bayesian agents in the same environment. They both basically understand how their environment works, so they generally agree on predictions about any specific directly-observable thing in the world - e.g. whenever they try to operationalize a bet, they find that their odds are roughly the ...
2024-05-09
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NPK5gQzxzXx5Jjoaq/new-to-this-community
NPK5gQzxzXx5Jjoaq
New to this community
kjsisco
Hello.  I am a computer security consultant, programmer specializing in PC games, and podcaster.  I am most interested in AI alignment and ethical development and I hope to learn from all of you.
2024-05-10
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vEeoXYMvfjyTiWv2M/what-i-learned-from-doing-quiz-bowl
vEeoXYMvfjyTiWv2M
What I learned from doing Quiz Bowl
g-w1
I did Quiz Bowl throughout my time in high school, and looking back on it, it was a pretty positive thing to do! In this blog post, I want to make a list of some of the life lessons I have taken from Quiz Bowl. If you know about Quiz Bowl, just skip to the next paragraph. For the uninitiated, Quiz Bowl is a team activi...
2024-05-09
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qmxK9thLfMBLGFKwd/pascal-s-mugging-and-the-order-of-quantification
qmxK9thLfMBLGFKwd
Pascal's Mugging and the Order of Quantification
Mascal's Pugging
One of the fun things to do when learning first order logic is to consider how the meaning of propositions dramatically changes based on small switches in the syntax. This is in contrast to natural language, where the meaning of a phrase can be ambiguous and we naturally use context clues to determine the correct inter...
2024-05-10
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ANGmJnZL2fskHX6tj/dyslucksia
ANGmJnZL2fskHX6tj
Dyslucksia
DarkSym
The curious tale of how I mistook my dyslexia for stupidity - and talked, sang, and drew my way out of it. Sometimes I tell people I’m dyslexic and they don’t believe me. I love to read, I can mostly write without error, and I’m fluent in more than one language. Also, I don’t actually technically know if I’m dyslectic ...
2024-05-09
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2MTtKzbxeXDXTJhC2/introducing-statistical-utility-mechanics-a-framework-for
2MTtKzbxeXDXTJhC2
Introducing Statistical Utility Mechanics: A Framework for Utility Maximizers
Jemist
This is independent alignment research. A decent grasp on stat mech is needed to understand this post fully, but I have recently written a stat mech sequence (up to part 3) which should do the trick to catch someone up to speed rapidly. TL;DR Statistical Utility Mechanics is a framework which draws on stat mech to mode...
2024-05-15
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Fgykut9sBmS3uiKsi/has-generative-ai-already-peaked-computerphile
Fgykut9sBmS3uiKsi
Has Generative AI Already Peaked? - Computerphile
davidfriva
null
2024-05-09
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZmdzizGSkbewojKAK/thoughts-on-the-relative-economic-benefits-of-polyamorous
ZmdzizGSkbewojKAK
Thoughts on the relative economic benefits of polyamorous relationships?
OKlogic
I have a limited desire to pursue polyamory, but I have a strong inclination that when properly managed, a stable polycule would be far more economically efficient. Has any serious literature (books, studies, ect) been published on this question? Any thoughts?* Off the top of my head: Advantages of Monogamy: Less of ri...
2024-05-09
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dLwo67p7zBuPsjG5t/we-might-be-missing-some-key-feature-of-ai-takeoff-it-ll
dLwo67p7zBuPsjG5t
We might be missing some key feature of AI takeoff; it'll probably seem like "we could've seen this coming"
Lukas_Gloor
Predicting the future is hard, so it’s no surprise that we occasionally miss important developments. However, several times recently, in the contexts of Covid forecasting and AI progress, I noticed that I missed some crucial feature of a development I was interested in getting right, and it felt to me like I could’ve s...
2024-05-09
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NozxxqJwbaoEhLggk/four-unrelated-is-over
NozxxqJwbaoEhLggk
Four Unrelated Is Over
jkaufman
Somerville historically had a zoning ordinance limiting housing units to at most four unrelated people: any number of persons related by blood, marriage, adoption, or foster care agreement and up to three (3) additional unrelated persons living together as a single housekeeping unit This is something I'd been unhappy a...
2024-05-09
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RHMA26L3i5ChiCjYN/ai-and-chemical-biological-radiological-and-nuclear-hazards
RHMA26L3i5ChiCjYN
AI and Chemical, Biological, Radiological, & Nuclear Hazards: A Regulatory Review
elliot
This article is last in a series of 10 posts comprising a 2024 State of the AI Regulatory Landscape Review, conducted by the Governance Recommendations Research Program at Convergence Analysis. Each post will cover a specific domain of AI governance, such as incident reporting, safety evals, model registries, and more....
2024-05-10
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FrBxFa3qMDvLypDEZ/ai-63-introducing-alpha-fold-3
FrBxFa3qMDvLypDEZ
AI #63: Introducing Alpha Fold 3
Zvi
It was a remarkably quiet announcement. We now have Alpha Fold 3, it does a much improved job predicting all of life’s molecules and their interactions. It feels like everyone including me then shrugged and went back to thinking about other things. No cool new toy for most of us to personally play with, no existential ...
2024-05-09
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2BvfGnZMx4Ei82qkk/i-got-95-theses-but-a-glitch-ain-t-one
2BvfGnZMx4Ei82qkk
I Got 95 Theses But a Glitch Ain’t One
Zvi
Or rather Samuel Hammond does. Tyler Cowen finds it interesting but not his view. I put up a market, and then started looking. Click through to his post for the theses. I will be quoting a few of them in full, but not most of them. I am not trying to be exact with these probabilities when the question calls for them, n...
2024-05-09
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KACMy4WtKBtr4wkDs/the-human-s-role-in-mesa-optimization
KACMy4WtKBtr4wkDs
The Human's Role in Mesa Optimization
silentbob
When it comes to mesa optimization, there’s usually two optimizers mentioned: the “base optimizer”, such as SGD, the process used for training the model. And the “mesa optimizer”, meaning roughly “the optimizer beneath the optimizer”. One key question in this context is when and under which circumstances such mesa opti...
2024-05-09
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j6EhfL2hRubaKL9ca/my-thesis-algorithmic-bayesian-epistemology-explained-in
j6EhfL2hRubaKL9ca
My thesis (Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology) explained in more depth
UnexpectedValues
In March I posted a very short description of my PhD thesis, Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology, on LessWrong. I've now written a more in-depth summary for my blog, Unexpected Values. Here's the full post: *** In January, I defended my PhD thesis. My thesis is called Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology, and it’s about pre...
2024-05-09
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3a6ZG6MNTMiYzddvf/visualizing-neural-network-planning
3a6ZG6MNTMiYzddvf
Visualizing neural network planning
nevan-wichers
TLDR We develop a technique to try and detect if a NN is doing planning internally. We apply the decoder to the intermediate representations of the network to see if it’s representing the states it’s planning through internally. We successfully reveal intermediate states in a simple Game of Life model, but find no evid...
2024-05-09
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zMaRRKvbiwJpQzaTe/forecasting-the-way-i-think-about-it
zMaRRKvbiwJpQzaTe
Forecasting: the way I think about it
hickman-santini
This is the first post in a little series I'm slowly writing on how I see forecasting, particularly conditional forecasting; what it's good for; and whether we should expect people to agree if they just talk to each other enough. Views are my own. I work at the Forecasting Research Institute (FRI), I forecast with the ...
2024-05-09
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XtYuFgPWyopyzuLbv/some-thoughts-on-lessonline
XtYuFgPWyopyzuLbv
some thoughts on LessOnline
Raemon
I mostly wrote this for facebook, but it ended up being a whole-ass post so I figured I'd put it here too. I'm helping run "LessOnline: A Festival of Writers Who Are Wrong On the Internet (But Striving To Be Less So)". I'm incentivized to say nice things about the event. So, grain of salt and all. But, some thoughts, w...
2024-05-08
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NitP3AsMeuycJQbfa/retrospective-on-mathematical-boundaries-workshop
NitP3AsMeuycJQbfa
Retrospective on Mathematical Boundaries Workshop
miyazono
mostly written by Evan Miyazono Minimum viable introduction We ran a workshop on Mathematical Boundaries from April 10-14. This was the successor of the Conceptual Boundaries Workshop (retrospective, last update) Feb 10-12The overlap in participants and approach was fairly low (notably lower than intended, due to avail...
2024-05-12
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ueE7bBCvRMT2DWuyJ/zero-sum-defeats-nash-equilibrium
ueE7bBCvRMT2DWuyJ
Zero-Sum Defeats Nash Equilibrium
richard-henage
Bike locks are a good example. There are twenty bikes at the bike rack in the parking lot. Some bike riders decide to buy bike locks for their bikes to protect them from theft. But this just means that the thieves steal other, unprotected bikes from the rack. The problem wasn't solved, just moved around. The wary bike ...
2024-05-08
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SkN4fErLksRh7HRpu/experience-switching-to-right-shoulder-round
SkN4fErLksRh7HRpu
Experience Switching to Right Shoulder Round
jkaufman
Contra dance has a figure where two people walk a small circle looking at each other. When it was introduced into contra in the 1970s as a borrowing from ECD, it had the name "gypsy", originally from Morris dancing, but many communities now use "right shoulder round". In many dance communities the debate over whether ...
2024-05-08
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e9soWGZ9ceEbRKjv2/how-do-top-ai-labs-vet-architecture-algorithm-changes
e9soWGZ9ceEbRKjv2
How do top AI labs vet architecture/algorithm changes?
ghostwheel
How do labs working at or near the frontier assess major architecture and/or algorithm changes before committing huge compute resources to try them out? For example, how do they assess stability and sample efficiency without having to do full-scale runs?
2024-05-08
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BPpeBH8brSCRvZajs/how-to-be-an-amateur-polyglot
BPpeBH8brSCRvZajs
How to be an amateur polyglot
arisalexis
Setting the stage Being a polyglot is a problem of definition first. Who can be described as a polyglot? At what level do you actually “speak” the given language? Some sources cite that polyglot means speaking more than 4 languages, others 6. My take is it doesn’t matter. I am more interested in the definition of when ...
2024-05-08
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PLoz68JbTkDufeYSG/dating-roundup-3-third-time-s-the-charm
PLoz68JbTkDufeYSG
Dating Roundup #3: Third Time’s the Charm
Zvi
The first speculated on why you’re still single. We failed to settle the issue. A lot of you were indeed still single. So the debate continues. The second gave more potential reasons, starting with the suspicion that you are not even trying, and also many ways you are likely trying wrong. The definition of insanity is ...
2024-05-08
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yeezBxTLaEcDorYLr/feeling-instrumentally-rational
yeezBxTLaEcDorYLr
Feeling (instrumentally) Rational
pi-rogers
Contra this post from the Sequences In Eliezer's sequence post, he makes the following (excellent) point: I can’t find any theorem of probability theory which proves that I should appear ice-cold and expressionless. This debunks the then-widely-held view that rationality is counter to emotions. He then goes on to claim...
2024-05-16
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7pdCh4MBFT6YXLL2a/is-there-a-power-play-overhang
7pdCh4MBFT6YXLL2a
Is There a Power Play Overhang?
crispweed
This post is about risks in the development of increasingly capable AI, in particular the risk of losing control to AI and extinction risk. I'll suggest that a key question is, "When do we need to take this kind of risk seriously?" We'll look at the issue of 'agency overhang', which suggests that adding agent-like abil...
2024-05-08
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gJGYDsyxj3rZDp86E/geometric-utilitarianism-and-why-it-matters
gJGYDsyxj3rZDp86E
Geometric Utilitarianism (And Why It Matters)
StrivingForLegibility
Do you like using numbers to represent uncertainty and preference, but also care about things like fairness and consent? Are you an altruist on a budget, looking to do the most good with some of your resources, but want to pursue other goals too? Are you looking for a way to align systems to the interests of many peopl...
2024-05-12
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v38y5zYYzZJLgGtRn/let-s-design-a-school-part-2-2-school-as-education-the
v38y5zYYzZJLgGtRn
Let's Design A School, Part 2.2 School as Education - The Curriculum (General)
Sable
The problem you run into when designing a curriculum is that you have to decide what you want students to learn. The problem with deciding what you want students to learn is that your decisions will inevitably end up being a reflection of your values. It isn’t a task that can be done objectively. Do you prioritize STEM...
2024-05-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7NvKrqoQgJkZJmcuD/instruction-following-agi-is-easier-and-more-likely-than
7NvKrqoQgJkZJmcuD
Instruction-following AGI is easier and more likely than value aligned AGI
Seth Herd
Summary: We think a lot about aligning AGI with human values. I think it’s more likely that we’ll try to make the first AGIs do something else. This might intuitively be described as trying to make instruction-following (IF) or do-what-I-mean-and-check (DWIMAC) be the central goal of the AGI we design. Adopting this go...
2024-05-15
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/szn26nTwJDBkhn8ka/deep-honesty
szn26nTwJDBkhn8ka
Deep Honesty
aletheo
Most people avoid saying literally false things, especially if those could be audited, like making up facts or credentials. The reasons for this are both moral and pragmatic — being caught out looks really bad, and sustaining lies is quite hard, especially over time. Let’s call the habit of not saying things you know t...
2024-05-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XCzg4uJCHTJNkzyo3/designing-for-a-single-purpose
XCzg4uJCHTJNkzyo3
Designing for a single purpose
itay-dreyfus
If you’ve ever been to Amsterdam, you’ve probably visited, or at least heard about the famous cookie store that sells only one cookie. I mean, not a piece, but a single flavor. I’m talking about Van Stapele Koekmakerij of course—where you can get one of the world's most delicious chocolate chip cookies. If not arriving...
2024-05-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7LsHtsLTjrpknfzb3/reflections-on-smileys-and-how-to-make-society-s
7LsHtsLTjrpknfzb3
reflections on smileys and how to make society's interpretive priors more charitable
Emrik North
Hi : ) I used to use smileys in my writing all the time (more than I do now!).  but then I read Against Disclaimers, and I thought that every time I used a smiley I wud make people who don't use smileys seem less friendly (bc my conspicuous-friendliness wud be available as a contrast to others' behaviour).  so instead,...
2024-05-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jDHovbGkPXtceFsKc/virtual-book-club-on-nick-bostrom-s-deep-utopia-life-and-1
jDHovbGkPXtceFsKc
Virtual Book Club on Nick Bostrom's "Deep Utopia: Life and Meaning in a Solved World"
beatrice@foresight.org
Hello everyone, We are excited to invite you to an informal virtual Book Club on Nick Bostrom’s latest work, "Deep Utopia: Life and Meaning in a Solved World." This gathering is part of the Foresight Institute's Existential Hope Program. We will host three sessions, diving into different parts of the book. Book Club Fo...
2024-05-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ajCdM2x7C9KHhhpXX/virtual-book-club-on-nick-bostrom-s-deep-utopia-life-and
ajCdM2x7C9KHhhpXX
Virtual Book Club on Nick Bostrom's "Deep Utopia: Life and Meaning in a Solved World"
beatrice@foresight.org
Hello everyone, We are excited to invite you to an informal virtual Book Club on Nick Bostrom’s latest work, "Deep Utopia: Life and Meaning in a Solved World." This gathering is part of the Foresight Institute's Existential Hope Program. We will host three sessions, diving into different parts of the book. Book Club Fo...
2024-05-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dm3hhsFcima2jYExn/what-is-a-community-that-has-changed-their-behaviour-without
Dm3hhsFcima2jYExn
What is a community that has changed their behaviour without strife?
Nathan Young
null
2024-05-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uar2DEWacHLHPFDdd/mental-masturbation-and-the-intellectual-comfort-zone
uar2DEWacHLHPFDdd
Mental Masturbation and the Intellectual Comfort Zone
declan-molony
I have a particular problem that I like to refer to as Mental Masturbation. Mental Masturbation: consuming information under the pretense of wanting to learn something useful, but in reality I’m “getting myself off” by indulging in subjects I’m already well-versed in. A personal example: I’ve read more than a dozen boo...
2024-05-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q6Tky4RzEmTwfGndB/axrp-episode-31-singular-learning-theory-with-daniel-murfet
q6Tky4RzEmTwfGndB
AXRP Episode 31 - Singular Learning Theory with Daniel Murfet
DanielFilan
YouTube link What’s going on with deep learning? What sorts of models get learned, and what are the learning dynamics? Singular learning theory is a theory of Bayesian statistics broad enough in scope to encompass deep neural networks that may help answer these questions. In this episode, I speak with Daniel Murfet abo...
2024-05-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/apZ7oEphqPsoEBgdp/how-do-open-ai-models-affect-incentive-to-race
apZ7oEphqPsoEBgdp
How do open AI models affect incentive to race?
jessica.liu.taylor
I see it said sometimes that open models contribute to AI race dynamics. My guess is that they don't, and if anything, reduce AI race dynamics. I will consider a simplified model that only takes into account the cost of training a model, not the cost to deploy it (which tends to be small relative to revenue anyway). Le...
2024-05-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X2XMFPg6pTeGC3YFd/taming-infinity-stat-mech-part-3
X2XMFPg6pTeGC3YFd
Taming Infinity (Stat Mech Part 3)
Jemist
The canonical example of quantum mechanics in action is the harmonic oscillator, which is something like a mass on a spring. In classical mechanics, it wobbles back and forth periodically when it is given energy, if it's at a position x, wobbling about x0 and moving with velocty v we can say its energy contains a poten...
2024-05-15
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AdS3P7Afu8izj2knw/orthogonality-thesis-burden-of-proof
AdS3P7Afu8izj2knw
Orthogonality Thesis burden of proof
donatas-luciunas
Quote from Orthogonality Thesis: It has been pointed out that the orthogonality thesis is the default position, and that the burden of proof is on claims that limit possible AIs. I tried to tell you that Orthogonality Thesis is wrong few times already. But I've been misunderstood and downvoted every time. What would yo...
2024-05-06
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QwsyNzdPeDWLrG9gC/navigating-llm-embedding-spaces-using-archetype-based
QwsyNzdPeDWLrG9gC
Navigating LLM embedding spaces using archetype-based directions
mwatkins
TL;DR This research presents a novel method for exploring LLM embedding space using the Major Arcana of the tarot as archetypal anchors. The approach generates "archetype-based directions" in GPT-J's embedding space, along which words and concepts "mutate" in meaning, revealing intricate networks of association. These ...
2024-05-08
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8gCsRPxvXyAZJLcwd/gdp-per-capita-in-2050
8gCsRPxvXyAZJLcwd
GDP per capita in 2050
hauke-hillebrandt
null
2024-05-06
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j6mi9ubiKLnGsDcLE/reviewing-the-structure-of-current-ai-regulations
j6mi9ubiKLnGsDcLE
Reviewing the Structure of Current AI Regulations
deric-cheng
This report is one in a series of ~10 posts comprising a 2024 State of the AI Regulatory Landscape Review, conducted by the Governance Recommendations Research Program at Convergence Analysis. Each post will cover a specific domain of AI governance (such as incident reporting, safety evals, model registries, and more)....
2024-05-07