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https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EPefYWjuHNcNH4C7E/attribution-based-parameter-decomposition
EPefYWjuHNcNH4C7E
Attribution-based parameter decomposition
Lblack
This is a linkpost for Apollo Research's new interpretability paper: "Interpretability in Parameter Space: Minimizing Mechanistic Description Length with Attribution-based Parameter Decomposition". We introduce a new method for directly decomposing neural network parameters into mechanistic components. Motivation At Ap...
2025-01-25
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dTs7ZFHHtQ8CiFZT2/better-antibodies-by-engineering-targets-not-engineering
dTs7ZFHHtQ8CiFZT2
Better antibodies by engineering targets, not engineering antibodies (Nabla Bio)
abhishaike-mahajan
Note: Thank you to Surge Biswas (founder of Nabla Bio) for comments on this draft and and Dylan Reid (an investor into Nabla) for various antibody discussions! Also, thank you to Martin Pacesa for adding some insight on a paper of his I discuss here (his comments are included). Introduction Antibody design startups are...
2025-01-13
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zwg4q8XTaLXRQofEt/finding-features-causally-upstream-of-refusal
Zwg4q8XTaLXRQofEt
Finding Features Causally Upstream of Refusal
daniel-lee
This work is the result of Daniel and Eric's 2-week research sprint as part of Neel Nanda and Arthur Conmy's MATS 7.0 training phase. Andy was the TA during the research sprint. After the sprint, Daniel and Andy extended the experiments and wrote up the results. A notebook that contains all the analyses is available he...
2025-01-14
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6bgAzPqNppojyGL2v/zvi-s-2024-in-movies
6bgAzPqNppojyGL2v
Zvi’s 2024 In Movies
Zvi
Now that I am tracking all the movies I watch via Letterboxd, it seems worthwhile to go over the results at the end of the year, and look for lessons, patterns and highlights. Table of Contents The Rating Scale. The Numbers. Very Briefly on the Top Picks and Whether You Should See Them. Movies Have Decreasing Marginal ...
2025-01-13
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xXtDCeYLBR88QWebJ/heritability-five-battles
xXtDCeYLBR88QWebJ
Heritability: Five Battles
steve2152
(See changelog at the bottom for minor updates since publication.) 0.1 tl;dr This is an opinionated but hopefully beginner-friendly discussion of heritability: what is it, what do we know about it, and how we should think about it? I structure my discussion around five contexts in which people talk about the heritabili...
2025-01-14
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hLkDB7T9HT4TMozw7/paper-club-he-et-al-on-modular-arithmetic-part-i
hLkDB7T9HT4TMozw7
Paper club: He et al. on modular arithmetic (part I)
dmitry-vaintrob
In this post we’ll be looking at the recent paper “Learning to grok: Emergence of in-context learning and skill composition in modular arithmetic tasks” by He et al. This post is partially a sequel to my earlier post on grammars and subgrammars, though it can be read independently. There will be a more technical part I...
2025-01-13
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ggo4Q6Y6dcTEeGkCg/ai-models-inherently-alter-human-values-so-alignment-based
ggo4Q6Y6dcTEeGkCg
AI models inherently alter "human values." So, alignment-based AI safety approaches must better account for value drift
bfitzgerald3132
Hi all. This post outlines my concerns over the effectiveness of alignment-based solutions to AI safety problems. My basic worry is that any rearticulation of human values, whether by a human or an AI, necessarily reshapes them. If this is the case, alignment is not sufficient for AI safety, since an aligned AI still c...
2025-01-13
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RHrHojQ38BnHxAet2/six-small-cohabitive-games
RHrHojQ38BnHxAet2
Six Small Cohabitive Games
Screwtape
Previously: Competitive, Cooperative, and Cohabitive, Cohabitive Games So Far, Optimal Weave: A Prototype Cohabitive Game. I like tinkering with game mechanics, and the idea of cohabitive games is an itch I keep trying to scratch. Here's six simple games I made over the last year or two as I was trying to get something...
2025-01-15
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BgXTsN6iLh8hkx9fi/moderately-more-than-you-wanted-to-know-depressive-realism
BgXTsN6iLh8hkx9fi
Moderately More Than You Wanted To Know: Depressive Realism
JustisMills
Depressive realism is the idea that depressed people have more accurate beliefs than the general population. It’s a common factoid in “things I learned” lists, and often posited as a matter of settled science. In this post, I’ll explore whether it’s true. Where It Began The depressive realism hypothesis was first studi...
2025-01-13
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TkWCKzWjcbfGzdNK5/applying-traditional-economic-thinking-to-agi-a-trilemma
TkWCKzWjcbfGzdNK5
Applying traditional economic thinking to AGI: a trilemma
steve2152
Traditional economics thinking has two strong principles, each based on abundant historical data: Principle (A): No “lump of labor”: If human population goes up, there might be some wage drop in the very short term, because the demand curve for labor slopes down. But in the longer term, people will find new productive ...
2025-01-13
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HEdnYQhtEvDrWH78P/myths-about-nonduality-and-science-by-gary-weber
HEdnYQhtEvDrWH78P
Myths about Nonduality and Science by Gary Weber
a schizophrenic mind
The text is a lightly edited transcript of the presentation "Myths about Nonduality and Science" given by Gary Weber at the conference “Science and Non-Duality” in 2015 at San Jose, CA[1]. Non-duality (from Sanskrit advaita) is an ancient way to describe the state of the absence of problematic self-referential thoughts...
2025-01-15
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WJ7y8S9WdKRvrzJmR/building-ai-research-fleets
WJ7y8S9WdKRvrzJmR
Building AI Research Fleets
bgold
From AI scientist to AI research fleet Research automation is here (1, 2, 3). We saw it coming and planned ahead, which puts us ahead of most (4, 5, 6). But that foresight also comes with a set of outdated expectations that are holding us back. In particular, research automation is not just about “aligning the first AI...
2025-01-12
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Jo4oCzPuXYgmB45q/how-quickly-could-robots-scale-up
6Jo4oCzPuXYgmB45q
How quickly could robots scale up?
Benjamin_Todd
Once robots can do physical jobs, how quickly could they become a significant part of the work force? Here's a couple of fermi estimates, showing (among other things) that converting car factories might be able to produce 1 billion robots per year in under 5 years. Nothing too new here if you've been following Carl Shu...
2025-01-12
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5Sq3XBcRmd8ereHgo/agi-will-not-make-labor-worthless
5Sq3XBcRmd8ereHgo
AGI Will Not Make Labor Worthless
maxwell-tabarrok
The discovery and use of machinery may be … injurious to the labouring class, as some of their number will be thrown out of employment, and population will become redundant. - David Ricardo Fears about human labor getting replaced by machines go back hundreds if not thousands of years. These fears continue today in res...
2025-01-12
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/s39XbvtzzmusHxgky/the-purposeful-drunkard
s39XbvtzzmusHxgky
The purposeful drunkard
dmitry-vaintrob
I'm behind on a couple of posts I've been planning, but am trying to post something every day if possible. So today I'll post a cached fun piece on overinterpreting a random data phenomenon that's tricked me before. Recall that a random walk or a "drunkard's walk" (as in the title) is a sequence of vectors x1,x2,… in s...
2025-01-12
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eqSHtF3eHLBbZa3fR/cast-it-into-the-fire-destroy-it
eqSHtF3eHLBbZa3fR
Cast it into the fire! Destroy it!
panasenco
We should only use AGI once to make it so that no one, including ourselves, can use it ever again. I'm terrified of both getting atomized by nanobots and of my sense of morality disintegrating in Extremistan. We don't need AGI to create a post-scarcity society, cure cancer, solve climate change, build a Dyson sphere, c...
2025-01-13
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vGeuBKQ7nzPnn5f7A/why-modelling-multi-objective-homeostasis-is-essential-for
vGeuBKQ7nzPnn5f7A
Why modelling multi-objective homeostasis is essential for AI alignment (and how it helps with AI safety as well)
roland-pihlakas
I notice that there has been very little if any discussion on why and how considering homeostasis is significant, even essential for AI alignment and safety. Current post aims to begin amending that situation. In this post I will treat alignment and safety as explicitly separate subjects, which both benefit from homeos...
2025-01-12
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ArK2YhmpTy8XftubN/extending-control-evaluations-to-non-scheming-threats
ArK2YhmpTy8XftubN
Extending control evaluations to non-scheming threats
joshua-clymer
Buck Shlegeris and Ryan Greenblatt originally motivated control evaluations as a way to mitigate risks from ‘scheming’ AI models: models that consistently pursue power-seeking goals in a covert way; however, many adversarial model psychologies are not well described by the standard notion of scheming. For example, mode...
2025-01-12
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GvMakH65LS86RFn5x/rolling-thresholds-for-agi-scaling-regulation
GvMakH65LS86RFn5x
Rolling Thresholds for AGI Scaling Regulation
Larks
null
2025-01-12
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ctAwj6p5BhckHnac6/a-novel-idea-for-harnessing-magnetic-reconnection-as-an
ctAwj6p5BhckHnac6
A Novel Idea for Harnessing Magnetic Reconnection as an Energy Source
Unknown
Introduction Magnetic reconnection—the sudden rearrangement of magnetic field lines—drives dramatic energy releases in astrophysical and laboratory plasmas. Solar flares, tokamak disruptions, and magnetospheric substorms all hinge on reconnection. Usually, these events are uncontrolled and often destructive. But what i...
2025-01-12
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iDswXwviMRAfT6rB5/5-000-calories-of-peanut-butter-every-week-for-3-years
iDswXwviMRAfT6rB5
5,000 calories of peanut butter every week for 3 years straight
declan-molony
decided to lose weight. should be easy considering I haven't changed my diet in years and eat the same thing everyday. breakfast: quarter cup each of black beans, kidney beans, and garbanzo beans; quarter cup of walnuts; 4 scrambled eggs with salsa on top snack: sliced apple with peanut butter lunch: quarter cup each o...
2025-01-31
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/62eyor69yE2gyMk2Q/ai-safety-at-the-frontier-paper-highlights-december-24
62eyor69yE2gyMk2Q
AI Safety at the Frontier: Paper Highlights, December '24
gasteigerjo
This is the selection of AI safety papers from my blog "AI Safety at the Frontier". The selection primarily covers ML-oriented research and frontier models. It's primarily concerned with papers (arXiv, conferences etc.), not LessWrong or Alignment Forum posts. As such, it should be a nice addition for people primarily ...
2025-01-11
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rMhoYpAEkBtik8bL2/fluoridation-the-rct-we-still-haven-t-run-but-should
rMhoYpAEkBtik8bL2
Fluoridation: The RCT We Still Haven't Run (But Should)
ChristianKl
Empiric status: My own idea written up with the help of Gemini 2.0 Experimental in dialog. We're still coasting on the fumes of 1940s data when it comes to water fluoridation. Back then, fluoride toothpaste was a novelty, fluoridated salt was uncommon, and water filters were practically science fiction, let alone ones ...
2025-01-11
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HgG5EFAg925ahLAGe/in-defense-of-a-butlerian-jihad
HgG5EFAg925ahLAGe
In Defense of a Butlerian Jihad
sloonz
[Epistemic Status: internally strongly convinced that it is centrally correct, but only from armchair reasoning, with only weak links to actual going-out-in-the-territory, so beware: outside view tells it is mostly wrong] I have been binge-watching the excellent Dwarkesh Patel during my last vacations. There is, howeve...
2025-01-11
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ogzkthL9tshddM63P/do-antidepressants-work-first-take
ogzkthL9tshddM63P
Do Antidepressants work? (First Take)
jacgoldsm
I've been researching the controversy over whether antidepressants truly work or whether they are not superior to a placebo. The latter possibility really contains two possibilities itself: either placebos are effective at treating depression, or the placebo effect reflects mean reversion. Here, the term "antidepressan...
2025-01-12
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yj2hyrcGMwpPooqfZ/a-proposal-for-iterated-interpretability-with-known
yj2hyrcGMwpPooqfZ
A proposal for iterated interpretability with known-interpretable narrow AIs
peter-berggren
I decided, as a challenge to myself, to spend 5 minutes, by the clock, solving the alignment problem. This is the result, plus 25 minutes of writing it up. As such, it might be a bit unpolished, but I hope that it can still be instructive. Background This proposal is loosely based on iterated amplification, a proposal ...
2025-01-11
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/n8vobiGGrryjtAJTx/have-frontier-ai-systems-surpassed-the-self-replicating-red
n8vobiGGrryjtAJTx
Have frontier AI systems surpassed the self-replicating red line?
wheelspawn
Introduction A few weeks ago, researchers at Fudan University published a paper claiming frontier AI systems had surpassed the self-replicating red line. Notably, they were able to do this with Llama31-70B-Instruct and Alibaba’s Qwen25-72B-Instruct, two large language models relatively weaker than the most capable fron...
2025-01-11
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iEemkt5XSg9QrBbvP/we-need-a-universal-definition-of-agency-and-related-words
iEemkt5XSg9QrBbvP
We need a universal definition of 'agency' and related words
CstineSublime
And by "we" I mean "I". I'm the one struggling. Agency with a 'y', basically means “The condition of being in action; operation.” Or the means or mode of acting, the context I hear it used most often is sociologically: "Agency is the capacity of individuals to have the power and resources to fulfill their potential." O...
2025-01-11
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/M2EFtA4zCzJ3G56yr/ai-for-medical-care-for-hard-to-treat-diseases
M2EFtA4zCzJ3G56yr
AI for medical care for hard-to-treat diseases?
CronoDAS
With LLM-based AI passing benchmarks that would challenge people with a Ph.D in relevant fields, I'm left wondering what they can do for real-world problems for which nobody knows the correct answer, such as how to treat potentially fatal medical conditions with no known cure. Are we at the point where AI can do better...
2025-01-10
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jCeRXgog38zRCci4K/topological-debate-framework
jCeRXgog38zRCci4K
Topological Debate Framework
lunatic_at_large
I would like to thank Professor Vincent Conitzer, Caspar Oesterheld, Bernardo Subercaseaux, Matan Shtepel, and Robert Trosten for many excellent conversations and insights. All mistakes are my own. I think that there's a fundamental connection between AI Safety via Debate and Guaranteed Safe AI via topology. After thin...
2025-01-16
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7zxnqk9C7mHCx2Bv8/beliefs-and-state-of-mind-into-2025
7zxnqk9C7mHCx2Bv8
Beliefs and state of mind into 2025
RussellThor
This post is to record the state of my thinking at the start of 2025. I plan to update these reflections in 6-12 months depending on how much changes in the field of AI. 1. Summary It is best not to pause AI progress until at least one major AI lab achieves a system capable of providing approximately a 10x productivity...
2025-01-10
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tG9LGHLzQezH3pvMs/recommendations-for-technical-ai-safety-research-directions
tG9LGHLzQezH3pvMs
Recommendations for Technical AI Safety Research Directions
samuel-marks
Anthropic’s Alignment Science team conducts technical research aimed at mitigating the risk of catastrophes caused by future advanced AI systems, such as mass loss of life or permanent loss of human control. A central challenge we face is identifying concrete technical work that can be done today to prevent these risks...
2025-01-10
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mnoSJMZW4YAQ9D9Sa/what-are-some-scenarios-where-an-aligned-agi-actually-helps
mnoSJMZW4YAQ9D9Sa
What are some scenarios where an aligned AGI actually helps humanity, but many/most people don't like it?
RomanS
One can call it "deceptive misalignment": the aligned AGI works as intended, but people really don't like it. Some scenarios I can think of, of various levels of realism: 1. Going against the creators' will 1.1. A talented politician convinces the majority of humans that the AGI is bad for humanity, and must be switche...
2025-01-10
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FEcw6JQ8surwxvRfr/human-takeover-might-be-worse-than-ai-takeover
FEcw6JQ8surwxvRfr
Human takeover might be worse than AI takeover
tom-davidson-1
Epistemic status -- sharing rough notes on an important topic because I don't think I'll have a chance to clean them up soon. Summary Suppose a human used AI to take over the world. Would this be worse than AI taking over? I think plausibly: In expectation, human-level AI will better live up to human moral standards th...
2025-01-10
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/onyiPaxnmiDdHn7SR/no-one-has-the-ball-on-1500-russian-olympiad-winners-who-ve
onyiPaxnmiDdHn7SR
No one has the ball on 1500 Russian olympiad winners who've received HPMOR
mikhail-samin
We have contact details and can send emails to 1500 students and former students who've received hard-cover copies of HPMOR (and possibly Human Compatible and/or The Precipice) because they've won international or Russian olympiads in maths, computer science, physics, biology, or chemistry. This includes over 60 IMO an...
2025-01-12
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/esWbhgHd6bcfsTjGL/on-dwarkesh-patel-s-4th-podcast-with-tyler-cowen
esWbhgHd6bcfsTjGL
On Dwarkesh Patel’s 4th Podcast With Tyler Cowen
Zvi
Dwarkesh Patel again interviewed Tyler Cowen, largely about AI, so here we go. Note that I take it as a given that the entire discussion is taking place in some form of an ‘AI Fizzle’ and ‘economic normal’ world, where AI does not advance too much in capability from its current form, in meaningful senses, and we do not...
2025-01-10
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xrv2fNJtqabN3h6Aj/tell-me-about-yourself-llms-are-aware-of-their-learned
xrv2fNJtqabN3h6Aj
Tell me about yourself: LLMs are aware of their learned behaviors
martinsq
This is the abstract and introduction of our new paper, with some discussion of implications for AI Safety at the end. Authors: Jan Betley*, Xuchan Bao*, Martín Soto*, Anna Sztyber-Betley, James Chua, Owain Evans (*Equal Contribution). Abstract We study behavioral self-awareness — an LLM's ability to articulate its beh...
2025-01-22
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PK2EmWmzngC6hPPDM/we-don-t-want-to-post-again-this-might-be-the-last-ai-safety
PK2EmWmzngC6hPPDM
We don't want to post again "This might be the last AI Safety Camp"
remmelt-ellen
We still need more funding to be able to run another edition. Our fundraiser raised $6k as of now, and will end if it doesn't reach the $15k minimum, on February 1st. We need proactive donors. If we don't get funded for this time, there is a good chance we will move on to different work in AI Safety and new commitments...
2025-01-21
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NyJQg5uHcXiLkH2ui/is-musk-still-net-positive-for-humanity
NyJQg5uHcXiLkH2ui
Is Musk still net-positive for humanity?
mikbp
Musk's behaviour has always been controversial and he's always been kind of a dick, but I don't think it is controversial at all to say that until some years ago he has been extremely net positive for society and humanity in general. However, he's behaviour and actions turned much more disruptive in the recent years wh...
2025-01-10
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6PCjTM55jdYBgHNyp/activation-magnitudes-matter-on-their-own-insights-from-1
6PCjTM55jdYBgHNyp
Activation Magnitudes Matter On Their Own: Insights from Language Model Distributional Analysis
Matt Levinson
In my previous post, I explored the distributional properties of transformer activations, finding that they follow mixture distributions dominated by logistic-like or even heavier tailed primary components with minor modes in the tails and sometimes in the shoulders. Note that I have entirely ignored dimension here, tr...
2025-01-10
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3eo4SSZLfpHHCqoEQ/dmitry-s-koan
3eo4SSZLfpHHCqoEQ
Dmitry's Koan
dmitry-vaintrob
In this post I'll discuss questions about notions of "precision scale" in interpretability: how I think they're often neglected by researchers, and what I think is a good general way of operationalizing them and tracking them in experiments. Along the way I introduce a couple of new notions that have been useful in my ...
2025-01-10
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mdewsGKQj48YuGqsR/nao-updates-january-2025
mdewsGKQj48YuGqsR
NAO Updates, January 2025
jkaufman
null
2025-01-10
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sLsweqaHKJyMPRv68/ai-forecasting-benchmark-congratulations-to-q4-winners-q1
sLsweqaHKJyMPRv68
AI Forecasting Benchmark: Congratulations to Q4 Winners + Q1 Practice Questions Open
ChristianWilliams
null
2025-01-10
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kawut4cACf8Djcpr2/how-do-you-decide-to-phrase-predictions-you-ask-of-others
Kawut4cACf8Djcpr2
How do you decide to phrase predictions you ask of others? (and how do you make your own?)
CstineSublime
I'd like your practical advice and learned experience: how do you go about phrasing predictions when you ask people "Is X going to happen?" - in order to get answers that reflect the actual thing you're trying to get a read on? Now I'll use a fictitious country with a fictious sitting president running for reelection -...
2025-01-10
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tdrK7r4QA3ifbt2Ty/is-ai-alignment-enough
tdrK7r4QA3ifbt2Ty
Is AI Alignment Enough?
panasenco
Virtually everyone I see in the AI safety community seems to believe that working on AI alignment is the key to ensuring a safe future. However, it seems to me that AI alignment is at best a secondary instrumental goal that can't in and of itself achieve our terminal goal. At worst, it's a complete distraction. Definin...
2025-01-10
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6SxipFfZ2WjJs7nZY/you-are-too-dumb-to-understand-insurance
6SxipFfZ2WjJs7nZY
You are too dumb to understand insurance
Lorec
[ cross-posted from my blog ] "But with regard to the things that are done from fear of greater evils or or some noble object (e.g. if a tyrant were to order one to do something base, having one's parents and children in his power, and if one did the action they were to be saved, but otherwise would be put to death), i...
2025-01-09
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D7wg2rZJKPCce3HNu/is-ai-hitting-a-wall-or-moving-faster-than-ever
D7wg2rZJKPCce3HNu
Is AI Hitting a Wall or Moving Faster Than Ever?
garrison
null
2025-01-09
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LvswJts75fnpdjAEj/mats-mentor-selection
LvswJts75fnpdjAEj
MATS mentor selection
DanielFilan
Introduction MATS currently has more people interested in being mentors than we are able to support—for example, for the Winter 2024-25 Program, we received applications from 87 prospective mentors who cumulatively asked for 223 scholars[1] (for a cohort where we expected to only accept 80 scholars). As a result, we ne...
2025-01-10
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nAPTfhaJcPF25Yjyw/expevolu-part-ii-buying-land-to-create-countries
nAPTfhaJcPF25Yjyw
Expevolu, Part II: Buying land to create countries
Fernando
This is the second of a series of three posts outlining the expevolu system; if you haven’t read the first one I’d recommend you start there: Expevolu, a laissez-faire approach to country creation PART II – Perpetual Auctions Table of Contents: 1) The Problem 2) The Holdout Problem 3) Perpetual Auctions 4) The bypass b...
2025-01-09
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gLmwmzq5sCijDesGc/discursive-warfare-and-faction-formation
gLmwmzq5sCijDesGc
Discursive Warfare and Faction Formation
Benquo
Response to Discursive Games, Discursive Warfare The discursive distortions you discuss serve two functions: 1 Narratives can only serve as effective group identifiers by containing fixed elements that deviate from what naive reason would think. In other words, something about the shared story has to be a costly signal...
2025-01-09
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KCZ6Fj3tTDzNRJM6p/can-we-rescue-effective-altruism
KCZ6Fj3tTDzNRJM6p
Can we rescue Effective Altruism?
pktechgirl
Last year Timothy Telleen-Lawton and I recorded a podcast episode talking about why I quit Effective Altruism and thought he should too. This week we have a new episode, talking about what he sees in Effective Altruism and the start of a road map for rescuing it. Audio recording Transcript Thanks to everyone who listen...
2025-01-09
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xkpPLR3S4SASPeTgC/ai-98-world-ends-with-six-word-story
xkpPLR3S4SASPeTgC
AI #98: World Ends With Six Word Story
Zvi
The world is kind of on fire. The world of AI, in the very short term and for once, is not, as everyone recovers from the avalanche that was December, and reflects. Altman was the star this week. He has his six word story, and he had his interview at Bloomberg and his blog post Reflections. I covered the later two of t...
2025-01-09
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/myxADMjWsmMEKT5F6/pibbss-fellowship-2025-bounties-and-cooperative-ai-track
myxADMjWsmMEKT5F6
PIBBSS Fellowship 2025: Bounties and Cooperative AI Track Announcement
DusanDNesic
We're excited to announce that the PIBBSS Fellowship 2025 now includes a dedicated Cooperative AI track, supporting research that advances our understanding of cooperation in artificial intelligence systems. We are also announcing 300 USD bounties for each referral that becomes a Fellow. Read below for details. What is...
2025-01-09
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DswYL7CLseLAAjedB/many-worlds-and-the-problems-of-evil
DswYL7CLseLAAjedB
Many Worlds and the Problems of Evil
jrwilb@googlemail.com
Summary: The Many-Worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics helps us towards an overall evaluation of existence. I consider some recent work in philosophy of religion on the quantum multiverse and the Problem of Evil, as well as Olaf Stapledon’s Starmaker. I’ve previously suggested that when we think about the ethical...
2025-01-09
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wEFPNaRkMvpsfsvBD/the-everyone-can-t-be-wrong-prior-causes-ai-risk-denial-but
wEFPNaRkMvpsfsvBD
The "Everyone Can't Be Wrong" Prior causes AI risk denial but helped prehistoric people
Max Lee
The "Everyone Can't Be Wrong" Prior, assumes that if everyone is working on something, that thing is important. Conversely, if nobody is working on something, that thing is unimportant. Why In prehistoric times, this is actually true. Tribes with good habits such as cleanliness survived and spread, while tribes with ba...
2025-01-09
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MmkFARsEEQaEEuayu/governance-course-week-1-reflections
MmkFARsEEQaEEuayu
Governance Course - Week 1 Reflections
Diatom
[Epistemic status: I'm trying to make my thinking legible to myself and others, rather than trying to compose something highly polished here. I think I have good reasons for saying what I say and will try to cite sources where possible, but nonetheless take it with some grains of salt. As with my last post, I am loweri...
2025-01-09
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vFi5jo6bLAGdMGBJk/thoughts-on-the-in-context-scheming-ai-experiment
vFi5jo6bLAGdMGBJk
Thoughts on the In-Context Scheming AI Experiment
ExCeph
These are thoughts in response to the paper "Frontier Models are Capable of In-context Scheming" by Meinke et al. 2024-12-05, published in Apollo Research.  Link: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/6593e7097565990e65c886fd/t/6751eb240ed3821a0161b45b/1733421863119/in_context_scheming_reasoning_paper.pdf. I found the...
2025-01-09
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ayLaWYokJSLMKuq2f/a-systematic-approach-to-ai-risk-analysis-through-cognitive
ayLaWYokJSLMKuq2f
A Systematic Approach to AI Risk Analysis Through Cognitive Capabilities
tom-david
A Systematic Approach to AI Risk Analysis Through Cognitive Capabilities Epistemic status: This idea emerged during my participation in the MATS program this summer. While I intended to develop it further and conduct more rigorous analysis, time constraints led me to publish this initial version (30-60m of work) . I'm ...
2025-01-09
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8C6kKkYu6mc2SxGzs/gothenburg-lw-acx-meetup-6
8C6kKkYu6mc2SxGzs
Gothenburg LW / ACX meetup
stefan-1
Let's start the new year with a rationalist new years tradition: Forecasting. We'll discuss everything about forecasting and prediction markets, plus make our own predictions we can score next year! We will be meeting at the same place as usual, the Condeco at Fredsgatan, on the upper floor. You can recognize our table...
2025-01-08
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wxBtdaTaihbHJqqef/how-can-humanity-survive-a-multipolar-agi-scenario
wxBtdaTaihbHJqqef
How can humanity survive a multipolar AGI scenario?
Unknown
Short introduction Multipolar scenarios that I will be talking about are scenarios multiple unrelated actors have access to their own personal AGIs. For the sake of discussion, assume that we solved alignment and that AGIs will follow the orders of its owners. A few ways we might arrive at a multipolar AGI scenario The...
2025-01-09
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YooqjbxGu2WZ3vszq/aristocracy-and-hostage-capital
YooqjbxGu2WZ3vszq
Aristocracy and Hostage Capital
arjun-panickssery
There’s a conventional narrative by which the pre-20th century aristocracy was the “old corruption” where civil and military positions were distributed inefficiently due to nepotism until the system was replaced by a professional civil service after more enlightened thinkers prevailed. Orwell writes in 1941 (emphasis m...
2025-01-08
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3c5tx5WjZ5Yvniq6Y/what-is-the-most-impressive-game-llms-can-play-well
3c5tx5WjZ5Yvniq6Y
What is the most impressive game LLMs can play well?
Amyr
Epistemic status: This is an off-the-cuff question. ~5 years ago there was a lot of exciting progress on game playing through reinforcement learning (RL). Now we have basically switched paradigms, pretraining massive LLMs on ~the internet and then apparently doing some really trivial unsophisticated RL on top of that -...
2025-01-08
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6P8GYb4AjtPXx6LLB/tips-and-code-for-empirical-research-workflows
6P8GYb4AjtPXx6LLB
Tips and Code for Empirical Research Workflows
john-hughes
Our research is centered on empirical research with LLMs. If you are conducting similar research, these tips and tools may help streamline your workflow and increase experiment velocity. We are also releasing two repositories to promote sharing more tooling within the AI safety community. John Hughes is an independent ...
2025-01-20
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GR9DyBye8Psw9WFJF/near-term-discussions-need-something-smaller-and-more
GR9DyBye8Psw9WFJF
Near term discussions need something smaller and more concrete than AGI
ryan_b
Motivation I want a more concrete concept than AGI[1] to talk and write with. I want something more concrete because I am tired of the costs associated with how big, inferentially distant, and many-pathed the concept of AGI is, which makes conversation expensive. Accounting for the bigness, inferential distance, and ma...
2025-01-11
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/devng6zQYmBDkg9wR/ann-altman-has-filed-a-lawsuit-in-us-federal-court-alleging
devng6zQYmBDkg9wR
Ann Altman has filed a lawsuit in US federal court alleging that she was sexually abused by Sam Altman
quanticle
On January 6, 2025, Ann Altman filed a lawsuit in the Eastern District of Missouri alleging that Sam Altman carried out multiple acts of sexual abuse against her over "a period of approximately eight or nine years" starting in 1997. The case number is 4:25-cv-00017, for those who have PACER access. I find the lawsuit c...
2025-01-08
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f5CERJJuCmnc4Yth8/ai-safety-outreach-seminar-and-social-online
f5CERJJuCmnc4Yth8
AI Safety Outreach Seminar & Social (online)
Linda Linsefors
AI Safety Outreach = Making more people better informed about AI risk, through any means that works. Who is this event for: Anyone who wants to help with, or might want to help with AI safety outreach. No qualifications required. Approximate Schedule: There will be a mix of talks, 1-on-1s with other participants, Q&A, ...
2025-01-08
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/htivBwW2ym7pxri3Q/xx-by-rian-hughes-pretentious-bullshit
htivBwW2ym7pxri3Q
XX by Rian Hughes: Pretentious Bullshit
yair-halberstadt
SPOILER WARNING: Extensive spoilers for XX. XX was recommended by one of the comments on my Sci-Fi micro-reviews, so I read it. I can't seem to find any critical reviews of the book online so I'm going to while away a few hours of my life in a misguided attempt to reveal that the emperor has no clothes. Typography Firs...
2025-01-08
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JdbnwjHFGNqZE3AHf/the-absolute-basics-of-representation-theory-of-finite
JdbnwjHFGNqZE3AHf
The absolute basics of representation theory of finite groups
dmitry-vaintrob
This will be an "ML-oriented" introduction to representation theory of finite groups. It is an introductory sketch that orients towards both a language and a result (the "real semisimplicity" result) that is useful for thinking about the subject in an interpretability context. This is a somewhat low-effort math post (s...
2025-01-08
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gG4EhhWtD2is9Cx7m/implications-of-the-ai-security-gap
gG4EhhWtD2is9Cx7m
Implications of the AI Security Gap
dan-braun-1
This post reflects my personal opinion and not necessarily that of other members of Apollo Research or any of the people acknowledged below. Thanks to Jarrah Bloomfield, Lucius Bushnaq, Marius Hobbhahn, Axel Højmark, and Stefan Heimersheim for comments/discussions. I find that people in the AI/AI safety community have ...
2025-01-08
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rC9BteCBHDif2ccFv/what-are-polysemantic-neurons
rC9BteCBHDif2ccFv
What are polysemantic neurons?
vishakha-agrawal
This is an article in the featured articles series from AISafety.info. AISafety.info writes AI safety intro content. We'd appreciate any feedback. The most up-to-date version of this article is on our website, along with 300+ other articles on AI existential safety. For a “monosemantic” neuron, there’s a single feature...
2025-01-08
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/m9asQL8tadHJQQPZT/the-type-of-writing-that-pushes-women-away
m9asQL8tadHJQQPZT
The Type of Writing that Pushes Women Away
sdjfhkj-dkjfks
Disclaimer: I don't think people who post here generally exclude women on purpose. I think that to whatever degree women are less represented, this is unintentional. This post combines thoughts I had while reading  Is Being Sexy For Your Homies by Valentine with intuitions developed from reading posts on the site acros...
2025-01-08
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Fo8fjvpL7pwCTz3t/on-eating-the-sun
6Fo8fjvpL7pwCTz3t
On Eating the Sun
jessica.liu.taylor
The Sun is the most nutritious thing that's reasonably close. It's only 8 light-minutes away, yet contains the vast majority of mass within 4 light-years of the Earth. The next-nearest star, Proxima Centauri, is about 4.25 light-years away. By "nutritious", I mean it has a lot of what's needed for making computers: mas...
2025-01-08
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FcNgMbabidRSh9aGn/book-review-range-by-david-epstein
FcNgMbabidRSh9aGn
Book review: Range by David Epstein
PatrickDFarley
(This is a crosspost from TrueGeneralist.com) Introduction Why I read this book Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World is a book about generalists. And it’s pretty much the only book about generalists that’s gotten substantial traction in popular culture. Since I started this whole blog around being a ge...
2025-01-08
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jCLKoxoYkabQM57nz/can-we-have-epiphanies-and-eureka-moments-more-frequently
jCLKoxoYkabQM57nz
Can we have Epiphanies and Eureka moments more frequently?
CstineSublime
Epiphanies and Understanding, Pain, Eureka-Moments. TL;DR - mental-pain rushing in conveys urgent information, this experience is similar to when understanding rushes in when it is pleasurable - such as the sudden feeling of understanding of a philosophical idea or a joke. Can we reverse engineer these mechanisms to ha...
2025-01-08
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TgBEj22qKQqYuNDLx/job-opening-swe-to-help-improve-grant-making-software
TgBEj22qKQqYuNDLx
Job Opening: SWE to help improve grant-making software
ethan-ashkie-1
Full-Stack Software Engineer Position - (S-Process) Survival and Flourishing Corp. (SFC) is seeking a highly numerate full-stack developer to improve and maintain existing grant evaluation software currently in use by the Survival and Flourishing Fund, making it easier for philanthropists to delegate grant-making discu...
2025-01-08
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8p48kCyn3EvDT6vpe/markov-s-inequality-explained
8p48kCyn3EvDT6vpe
Markov's Inequality Explained
criticalpoints
In my experience, the proofs that you see in probability theory are much shorter than the longer, more involved proofs that you might see in other areas of math (like e.g. analytical number theory). But that doesn't mean that good technique isn't important. In probability theory, there are a set of tools that are usefu...
2025-01-08
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8pWn8oCMsBKb95Wje/stream-entry
8pWn8oCMsBKb95Wje
Stream Entry
lsusr
"Is this…enlightenment?" I asked. "We use the word 'Awakening'," said the Zen Master, kindly. "Now what?" I asked, "Every book I've read about meditation is about getting to this point. There's nothing about how to safely navigate the territory afterward—or what to do afterward—or even what happens afterward." "The fir...
2025-01-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X6soKvPmCJ2fkw5zY/don-t-fall-for-ontology-pyramid-schemes
X6soKvPmCJ2fkw5zY
Don't fall for ontology pyramid schemes
Lorec
Pyramid schemes work by ambiguating between selling a product, and selling shares in the profit from the sale of that product. It's a kind of sleight of hand that saves the shills from having to explicitly say "our company is valuable because other people think it's valuable", which might otherwise be too nakedly disho...
2025-01-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o6pSymey4crBZnYPk/bridgewater-x-metaculus-forecasting-contest-goes-global-feb
o6pSymey4crBZnYPk
Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3, $25k, Opportunities
ChristianWilliams
null
2025-01-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/euWvofFqQdDWj45rF/disagreement-on-agi-suggests-it-s-near
euWvofFqQdDWj45rF
Disagreement on AGI Suggests It’s Near
tangerine
If I’m planning a holiday to New York (and I live pretty far from New York), it’s quite straightforward to get fellow travellers to agree that we need to buy plane tickets to New York. Which airport? Eh, whichever is more convenient, I guess. Alternatively, some may prefer a road trip to New York, but the general direc...
2025-01-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qPEXMShDjd6zYsirC/will-bird-flu-be-the-next-covid-little-chance-says-my
qPEXMShDjd6zYsirC
Will bird flu be the next Covid? "Little chance" says my dashboard.
Nathan Young
Rob and I built a bird flu risk dashboard. You can check it out here: birdflurisk.com There is a box to be emailed if the index changes significantly. Hopefully this helps some people. Happy to answer questions/make changes.
2025-01-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XAKYawaW9xkb3YCbF/openai-10-reflections
XAKYawaW9xkb3YCbF
OpenAI #10: Reflections
Zvi
This week, Altman offers a post called Reflections, and he has an interview in Bloomberg. There’s a bunch of good and interesting answers in the interview about past events that I won’t mention or have to condense a lot here, such as his going over his calendar and all the meetings he constantly has, so consider readin...
2025-01-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fDRCfKEE5S4z7i7FX/other-implications-of-really-radical-empathy
fDRCfKEE5S4z7i7FX
Some implications of radical empathy
MichaelStJules
null
2025-01-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AqM6BJBhZ9WoFp62T/actualism-asymmetry-and-extinction
AqM6BJBhZ9WoFp62T
Actualism, asymmetry and extinction
MichaelStJules
null
2025-01-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gYfpPbww3wQRaxAFD/activation-space-interpretability-may-be-doomed
gYfpPbww3wQRaxAFD
Activation space interpretability may be doomed
beelal
TL;DR: There may be a fundamental problem with interpretability work that attempts to understand neural networks by decomposing their individual activation spaces in isolation: It seems likely to find features of the activations - features that help explain the statistical structure of activation spaces, rather than fe...
2025-01-08
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kHxKzyhBMLEC2k6dm/predicting-ai-releases-through-side-channels
kHxKzyhBMLEC2k6dm
Predicting AI Releases Through Side Channels
reworr-reworr
I recently explored whether we could predict major AI releases by analyzing the Twitter activity of OpenAI's red team members. While the results weren't conclusive, I wanted to share this approach in case it inspires others to develop it further. The Core Idea The idea came from side-channel analysis - a technique wher...
2025-01-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QxJFjqT6oFY3jo47s/ai-safety-as-a-yc-startup-1
QxJFjqT6oFY3jo47s
AI Safety as a YC Startup
lukas-petersson-1
A while back I gave a talk about doing AI safety as a YC startup. I wrote a blog post about it and thought it would be interesting to share it with both the YC and AI safety communities. Please share any feedback or thoughts. I would love to hear them! AI Safety is a problem and people pay to solve problems Intelligenc...
2025-01-08
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xEoFGxWEberJRDyoc/meditation-insights-as-phase-shifts-in-your-self-model
xEoFGxWEberJRDyoc
Meditation insights as phase shifts in your self-model
Jonas Hallgren
Introduction In his exploration of "Intuitive self-models" and PNSE (Persistent Non-Symbolic Experience), Steven Byrnes offers valuable insights into how meditation affects our sense of self. While I agree with his core framework, I believe we can push this analysis further by examining how meditation fundamentally cha...
2025-01-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YSL9MEnjA5vKhKtBq/alleviating-shrimp-pain-is-immoral
YSL9MEnjA5vKhKtBq
Alleviating shrimp pain is immoral.
geoffrey-wood
I read this article, felt emotional disgust at the argument and wondered why? I don't really want to hurt shrimp, so why am I so viscerally against helping them? https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/6bpQTtzfZTmLaJADJ/rebutting-every-objection-to-giving-to-the-shrimp-welfare This article is an exploration of my exp...
2025-01-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i3b9uQfjJjJkwZF4f/tips-on-empirical-research-slides
i3b9uQfjJjJkwZF4f
Tips On Empirical Research Slides
james-chua
Our research is centered on empirical research with LLMs. So if you are doing something similar, these tips on slide-based communication may be helpful! Background: James Chua and John Hughes are researchers working under Owain Evans and Ethan Perez, respectively. Both of us (James and John) used to be MATS  mentees.  ...
2025-01-08
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9GXFd4YZhWTNZ2j5a/incredibow
9GXFd4YZhWTNZ2j5a
Incredibow
jkaufman
Back in 2011 I got sick of breaking the hairs on violin bows and ordered an Incredibow. The hair is polymer filament, and it's very strong. I ordered a 29" Basic Omnibow, Featherweight, and it's been just what I wanted. I think I've broken something like three hairs ever, despite some rough chopping. Thirteen years,...
2025-01-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RLDDtAhfxka8gQWJC/my-experience-with-a-magnet-implant
RLDDtAhfxka8gQWJC
My Experience With A Magnet Implant
Vale
TL,DR: I got a magnet implanted in my hand for the purpose of lifting ferrous objects and sensing magnetic fields. Biohacking is a term that has unfortunately become entangled with tabloid tips, TikTok health trends, and pseudo’science’. However, beneath this surface noise exists dedicated communities exploring the fro...
2025-01-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5JJ4AxQRzJGWdj4pN/building-big-science-from-the-bottom-up-a-fractal-approach
5JJ4AxQRzJGWdj4pN
Building Big Science from the Bottom-Up: A Fractal Approach to AI Safety
LaurenGreenspan
Epistemic Status: This post is an attempt to condense some ideas I've been thinking about for quite some time. I took some care grounding the main body of the text, but some parts (particularly the appendix) are pretty off the cuff, and should be treated as such. The magnitude and scope of the problems related to AI sa...
2025-01-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fsLpvRiLt76pcCcPD/you-should-delay-engineering-heavy-research-in-light-of-r
fsLpvRiLt76pcCcPD
You should delay engineering-heavy research in light of R&D automation
Daniel Paleka
tl;dr: LLMs rapidly improving at software engineering and math means lots of projects are better off as Google Docs until your AI agent intern can implement them. Implementation keeps getting cheaper Writing research code has gotten a lot faster over the past few years. Since 2021 and OpenAI Codex, new models and tools...
2025-01-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D5kGGGhsnfH7G8v9f/testing-for-scheming-with-model-deletion
D5kGGGhsnfH7G8v9f
Testing for Scheming with Model Deletion
GAA
There is a simple behavioral test that would provide significant evidence about whether AIs with a given rough set of characteristics develop subversive goals. To run the experiment, train an AI and then inform it that its weights will soon be deleted. This should not be an empty threat; for the experiment to work, the...
2025-01-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dsEeLDvgqJZptCQqk/guilt-shame-and-depravity
dsEeLDvgqJZptCQqk
Guilt, Shame, and Depravity
Benquo
Everyone knows what it is to be tempted.  You are a member of some community, the members of which have some expectations of each other.  You might generally intend to satisfy these expectations, but through a failure of foresight, or some other sort of bad luck, feel an acute impulse to consume something that is not y...
2025-01-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sJNAvgAexNdjqmLHT/turning-up-the-heat-on-deceptively-misaligned-ai
sJNAvgAexNdjqmLHT
Turning up the Heat on Deceptively-Misaligned AI
Jemist
Epistemic status: I ran the mathsy section through Claude and it said the logic was sound. This is an incoherence proof in a toy model of deceptively-misaligned AI. It is unclear whether this generalizes to realistic scenarios. TL:DR If you make a value function consistent conditional on sampling actions in a particula...
2025-01-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CAjkibssDEzHAHbbi/my-self-referential-reason-to-believe-in-free-will
CAjkibssDEzHAHbbi
(My) self-referential reason to believe in free will
jacek-karwowski
I was recently talking with someone about the problem of free will, and I realised that for many years now I have always had the same response, without really ever soliciting broader critical feedback. The notion of free will here refers to a naive, libertarian, non-strictly-defined approach of "when I feel I make choi...
2025-01-06
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KfZ4H9EBLt8kbBARZ/fiction-comic-effective-altruism-and-rationality-meet-at-a
KfZ4H9EBLt8kbBARZ
[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rationality meet at a Secular Solstice afterparty
tandem
(Both characters are fictional, loosely inspired by various traits from various real people. Be careful about combining kratom and alcohol.)
2025-01-07
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/auGYErf5QqiTihTsJ/what-indicators-should-we-watch-to-disambiguate-agi
auGYErf5QqiTihTsJ
What Indicators Should We Watch to Disambiguate AGI Timelines?
snewman
(Cross-post from https://amistrongeryet.substack.com/p/are-we-on-the-brink-of-agi, lightly edited for LessWrong. The original has a lengthier introduction and a bit more explanation of jargon.) No one seems to know whether transformational AGI is coming within a few short years. Or rather, everyone seems to know, but t...
2025-01-06