mse_validation/README.md

MSE Validation

Curated tabular validation subset for the distributional synthetic replay generator used in the AgentPerfBench submission.

This directory intentionally does not store raw runner JSON payloads. The Hugging Face dataset keeps the loadable tables and notes; raw aggregate and per-turn JSON artifacts remain in the R2 archive referenced by raw_json_r2_uri and per_turn_json_r2_uri in summary.parquet / manifest.csv.

R2 archive root: s3://agent-bench/bench_mse/

Files

• summary.parquet: one row per aggregate validation run, including R2 URIs for raw JSON provenance.
• manifest.csv: human-readable copy of the summary table.
• fidelity_deltas.csv: paired MSE-vs-real median deltas by turn-depth bin and metric.
• notes/: session notes documenting the debugging process and morphology/prefix-cache findings.

Main Validation Stages

Stage	Role
prefix_aware	Final SWE-bench proof: code-morph filler plus APC-aligned 1024-token shared prefix.
apc_off_v2	Ablation with prefix caching disabled.
morphology	Code-morph filler without shared prefix.
source_locked_baseline	Source-locked English-filler baseline.
paper_terminalbench	Clean TerminalBench validation.
paper_swe_noise_* / paper_swe_c20	Initial SWE-bench paper validation and repeat/noise-floor runs.

Supplementary Stages

Stage	Role
option2_no_replacement	No-replacement sampling progression runs.
high_concurrency	C=100 saturation/debug runs; not used as the main fidelity claim.

Headline SWE-Bench Cascade

The key diagnostic comparison is turn 10-19 E2EL median error for source-locked SWE-bench C=5:

Condition	Turn 10-19 E2EL delta
APC on, English filler, source-locked	+45.5%
APC on, code-morph filler, no shared prefix	+31.1%
APC off, code-morph filler, no shared prefix	+11.7%
APC on, code-morph filler, 1024-token shared prefix	-3.2%

This supports the paper claim that distributional replay for agentic serving must match both token statistics and serving-visible prefix structure. Token-count matching alone is insufficient for deep SWE-bench turns; code morphology and APC-aware shared prefix structure close the residual gap.

Filter Rule

Main rows satisfy:

• paired MSE + real trace replay,
• H100 / Llama-3.1-8B / vLLM,
• profile in swebench-multiturn-short or terminalbench-multiturn-short,
• request success rate at least 0.75,
• stage in prefix_aware, apc_off_v2, morphology, source_locked_baseline, paper_terminalbench, or paper_swe_noise.

Excluded from the main table:

• smoke tests,
• older broad validation sweeps before the final generator framing,
• A100 real-only validation runs,
• the superseded non-v2 APC-off run,
• Python caches and temporary source-session files.