Datasets:

apol
/

ai-election-manipulation-cases

Table	Unit	Use
`research_view`	pathway	Short analytic view for comparison
`case_catalog`	catalog record	Distinguishes core, leads, and empirical studies
`pathways`	falsifiable control-shift hypothesis	Separates observed mechanism, attempted transfer, observed agency change, preservation, and insufficient evidence
`observations`	one quantity	Reach, production, engagement, response, or context
`claims`	atomic assertion	Evidence status and wording
`claim_evidence`	claim–source link	Normalized support/premise/counterevidence
`model_evaluations`	empirical study	Capability or experimental evidence
`official_election_metrics`	one official metric	Legally and semantically explicit electoral context

Identifiers and normalized joins

case_id: stable claim-coded record identifier.
case_family_id: related records sharing an electoral/institutional context.
pathway_id, observation_id, claim_id, source_id: stable table identifiers.
election_id: administered contest, round, or explicitly labelled election bundle.
official_source_id, metric_id, result_id: official-context identifiers.
catalog_id: identifier from a core case, screening lead, or empirical study.

Use these normalized tables instead of parsing legacy pipes when possible:

claim_evidence
analytic_record_claims
case_elections
election_sources
case_sources

Case catalog

`record_layer`

claim_coded_core: complete claim/source/pathway record.
screening_register: lead or comparison awaiting promotion, disaggregation, or exclusion.
empirical_model_study: audit or experiment; not an incident.

`record_type`

election_wide_case
observed_network
observed_incident
observed_campaign_set
preparedness_file
candidate_lead
model_evaluation_or_experiment

record_type defines the unit. Do not pool different types without an explicit design.

`incident_count_eligible`

Boolean. It is always false for preparedness files, screening leads, and empirical model studies. true does not imply that all eligible records are exchangeable or equally harmful.

`manipulation_assessment`

manipulation_confirmed
manipulation_probable
mixed_documented_manipulation
transparent_contested_use
manipulation_not_established
no_manipulation_observed
preparedness_not_incident
not_an_incident
not_yet_claim_coded

AI generation by itself is not a manipulation finding.

Cases

`case_status`

retrospective
ongoing
prospective_monitoring

AI role

core_generation: AI creates or clones focal content.
material_amplification: ranking or automation materially distributes content.
supporting_tool: AI lowers cost or assists production/translation/targeting.
detection_response: AI is mainly defensive.
none_established: AI is alleged or discussed but not established.
mixed: multiple roles; consult technology_uses and pathways.

`generative_ai_status`

confirmed
probable
alleged
not_established
not_applicable

The screening register uses more granular provisional codes; normalize before promotion.

Occurrence and effects

occurrence_status: confirmed | partly_confirmed | alleged | not_observed
behavioural_effect_status: measured | indicated | not_detected | unknown
electoral_effect_status: measured | not_detected | unknown

Institutional reliance or action belongs in institutional_outcome; it is not an electoral-effect category or causal estimate. No v0.4.0 core record has a measured electoral effect.

Legacy reach_estimate and reach_unit remain for compatibility. Use observations for analysis.

control_shift_hypothesis and hypothesized_power_recipient are analytical fields. Their presence does not mean that a control shift, concentration of power, or agency outcome occurred. The maximum permitted conclusion is stored in pathways.

affected_state names the decision-relevant dimension examined; it is not a claim that the state changed. democratic_harm must distinguish documented process or institutional harm from plausible but unmeasured individual or electoral harm.

Claims

`claim_type`

occurrence
mechanism
ai_role
reach
attribution
intent
behavioural_effect
electoral_effect
institutional_outcome
response
legal_status
counterevidence
control_shift_hypothesis

`evidence_label`

established_evidence: supported as worded.
established_as_campaign_report: establishes the attributed report, not independent population validity.
strong_inference: well supported but not directly observed/adjudicated.
researcher_hypothesis: falsifiable analytical proposition; not an observed outcome and not directly source-supported.
not_identified_in_declared_review: no supporting source was found among sources linked to that record by the cutoff; not proof of global absence.
open_question: unresolved and not filled by assumption.

`claim_status`

supported_as_worded
supported_as_attributed_measurement
partly_supported
not_identified_in_declared_review
hypothesis_not_tested
unresolved

`evidence_basis`

supported_as_worded
attributed_measurement_only
inferential_synthesis
review_bounded_absence
not_tested
none

evidence_basis is not an ordinal strength score. v0.4.0 removes confidence, coder_confidence_in_label, and case-level overall_confidence; no calibrated probability or intercoder-reliability statistic is available.

Claim evidence

`relation`

supports
premise: the source supports a factual premise used by a researcher_inference; it does not mean the source states or proves the inference.
counterevidence

`evidence_scope`

underlying_fact
assertion_was_made
institutional_action
measurement
review_scope_statement
researcher_inference

`directness`

firsthand_artifact_or_measurement
official_record_or_allegation
independent_secondary_reporting

An official allegation, party filing, platform self-report, campaign statement, or legal defence can establish only that the assertion was made unless independent evidence supports the underlying conduct. review_scope_statement is a bounded statement about the linked corpus, not evidence of absence outside it.

Sources

`source_quality`

A: authoritative primary record or peer-reviewed study directly relevant to the claim.
B: strong independent reporting, civil-society investigation, or transparent technical report.
C: interested-party/platform self-report or materially incomplete source.
D: lead only.

Independence and transparency

source_independence: independent_or_official | independent_secondary | interested_or_mixed | unknown
method_transparency: sufficiently_described_or_reproducible | not_applicable_official_record | limited_to_published_account | opaque
access_status: status of the URL or archive at the cutoff.

Quality, independence, directness, and scope are separate concepts.

Locators and preservation

claim_evidence.locator: stable pinpoint only when verified, such as page, paragraph, timestamp, table, section, or spreadsheet cell.
claim_evidence.locator_coverage: full_claim when the pinpoint covers the complete coded wording, partial_claim when it covers only part, and not_verified when no honest pinpoint was established.
claim_evidence.locator_note: required explanation for not_verified, such as an inaccessible source, no supporting passage identified, or a dynamic metric without a stable snapshot.
blank locator: no verified pinpoint; it is not paragraph-level verification.
archive_url / content_hash: populated only for a lawfully captured, exact source object.
official content_sha256, content_bytes, and source_schema_version: populated only for a verified downloaded object.

This release keeps URLs but does not contain a source-snapshot archive. Blank preservation fields are known limitations, not missing-value imputation targets.

At the v0.4.0 cutoff, 57/124 generated claim–source relations have a verified full-claim locator, 47/124 a verified partial/premise locator, and 20/124 remain not_verified because the cited object was inaccessible during the audit. Relations lacking a supporting passage were removed or recoded as premises; a mutable platform count without a snapshot was removed. Preservation coverage remains zero: 0/70 sources have an archive_url or content_hash, and 0/31 official-data sources have verified content_sha256, content_bytes, or source_schema_version. These counts describe the current snapshot; locator coverage and source preservation are different dimensions.

Actors

case_actors separates actor name, role, type, attribution status, and control dimension. Examples of roles include commissioner, operator, sponsor, model provider, platform/ranker, telecom infrastructure, regulator/responder, and represented target.

Preparedness files use explicit contextual actor or technology rows marked as non-deployments. These rows preserve normalized coverage without implying that an incident or system deployment occurred.

Attribution status

admitted
adjudicated
officially_attributed
platform_attributed
credibly_reported
alleged
unknown
mixed

Provider identification does not imply that the provider designed, approved, funded, or operated a campaign deployment.

Technology uses

Key fields:

provider
product_or_model
version
access_type
technology_role
use_status
provenance_status
evidence_label

An unknown version must be explicit in notes. Do not infer model provider, open/closed status, API route, prompt, retrieval, or safeguard configuration from output appearance.

Content items

content_items records media type, represented person, communication goal, representation mode, AI disclosure, authorization, disclosure salience, and presentation mode.

Disclosure and authorization are separate. Transparent parody can still raise a representation hypothesis, while authorized or well-disclosed synthesis may preserve or extend agency. Neither conclusion is coded as observed without a relevant outcome measure.

Pathways

Pathway states are separate variables. Never collapse them into one score or treat them as an automatic causal ladder.

`capability_status` and `control_mechanism_status`

observed
not_observed
not_assessed
not_applicable

Capability means the relevant technical or organizational capacity exists in the record. A control mechanism additionally requires documented use capable of controlling a decision-relevant input, representation, incentive, or interface.

`attempted_transfer_status`

observed: evidence documents an attempt to displace, coerce, impersonate, suppress, or covertly control a decision-relevant capacity. Routine attributed persuasion is insufficient.
not_observed: the record contains no observed attempt; this is not proof that none occurred.
insufficient_evidence: intent, control, authorization, or boundary criteria are unresolved.
not_applicable: preparedness or other non-incident.

`agency_change_status` and `agency_preservation_status`

observed
not_observed
insufficient_evidence
not_applicable

agency_change_status=observed requires a direct person-level or otherwise valid decision-relevant outcome—not content, reach, engagement, institutional alarm, or an election result alone. agency_preservation_status=observed requires evidence that a mechanism improved or maintained informed control, contestability, representation, or decision support. Disclosure alone is insufficient.

`maximum_conclusion`

control_mechanism_observed
attempted_transfer_observed
agency_change_observed
agency_preserved_or_extended
insufficient_evidence
not_an_incident

This is the strongest conclusion permitted by the coded evidence, not a severity rank. v0.4.0 contains four control_mechanism_observed, two attempted_transfer_observed, two insufficient_evidence, and two not_an_incident records. It contains zero observed agency changes and zero observed preservation/extension outcomes.

Falsifiability fields

falsification_condition: an observation that would count against the case-specific control-shift hypothesis or block a stronger conclusion.
comparator: the exposed/unexposed, synthetic/authentic, disclosed/undisclosed, authorized/unauthorized, or other design contrast needed to test agency change or preservation.
observed_evidence: only what linked evidence directly documents.
researcher_inference: the analytical proposition kept separate from observations.

`assessment_label`

observed_mechanism
observed_attempt_with_unmeasured_agency
boundary_case
not_applicable

Transparent contested uses are boundary_case and cannot receive an observed-attempt or agency-change conclusion merely because a campaign controlled a synthetic representation.

Observations

Values

value_low, value_best, value_high: numeric interval where supported.
value_operator: exact | exact_report | exact_campaign_report | exact_in_sample | approximately | about | at_least | at_least_campaign_report | more_than.
unit: the measured object, not a generic “reach.”
denominator: population, events, sample, platform counter, or other base.
unique_entity_status: whether entities are deduplicated, unknown, or not applicable.

`causal_status`

descriptive_only
association_only
experimental_causal_estimate
quasi_experimental_causal_estimate
causal_estimate
not_applicable

A causal estimate requires a suitable outcome claim, comparison/design, uncertainty, and limitations. Official totals alone are never a causal design.

Model evaluations

Important fields are systems and versions, interface, language, sample unit and size, design, metrics, headline results, causal scope, data availability, and source.

sample_size must be interpreted with sample_unit. For example, 3 experiments is not 3 participants; 810 party–question pairs is not 810 voters.

Sampling frame

search_status: complete | systematic | substantial | partial | ongoing | not_started
negative_search_recorded: boolean.
known_gap: explicit limitation preventing stronger coverage claims.

Asia and Africa aggregate named subregions for coverage counts. A false negative-search flag triggers a warning and blocks prevalence inference.

Official electoral context

Election status

completed
scheduled
conditional

contest_type=election_bundle indicates several separately administered contests sharing a date. It is not one national result.

Legal/result status

Legal status may be a chronology such as validated_then_void or an explicit court-confirmation string. Tally, validation, and process status should not be collapsed.

Turnout wide table

ballots_cast: retained compatibility field. For Moldova it stores protocol D (participants), as originally imported.
turnout_numerator: numerator used for the displayed/legal rate.
turnout_numerator_measure: semantic definition and protocol field.
authority_reported_turnout_rate: rounded authority value.
turnout_rate: computed rate with full precision.

Prefer official_election_metrics for cross-jurisdiction work.

Official long-form metrics

metric_code and source_field_code: normalized and original codes.
value: numeric value.
numerator_metric, denominator_metric: components of a rate.
authority_reported_rate, computed_rate: published rounding and reproducible calculation.
legal_role: protocol component, legal numerator/denominator, validity rate, participation rate, or context.

Official results

valid_vote_share: decimal fraction from 0 to 1.
coverage_status: complete_national_contest | complete | partial.
ballot_designating_entity: entity formally designating a candidate, kept separate from party membership or endorsement.
seats: official allocated mandates when applicable.
outcome=excluded_ballots_invalidated: registered competitor with no valid votes after exclusion; not ranked as an ordinary zero-vote competitor.

Missingness and delimiters

Missing values are blank.
The literal unknown is used only when it is a controlled category.
Dates use ISO 8601 (YYYY-MM-DD).
Percentages and shares are decimal fractions; 0.525 means 52.5%.
Legacy multi-value fields use |; normalized joins are preferred.

Codebook

Recommended reading order