Datasets:
project string | src string | k int64 | n int64 | bac float64 | gt_finish int64 | gt_cost float64 | forecast dict | finish_err float64 | eac_ape float64 | tool_calls list | messages list |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C2011-13 Wind Farm | real | 72 | 120 | 21,369,835.510201 | 119 | 26,077,764.740303 | {
"finish_period": 117,
"eac": 28030607,
"p_overrun": 0.8,
"schedule_reasoning": "Earned schedule finish of ~117 periods reflects the time-based schedule performance (SPI(t) ≈ 0.92). The project recovered from an 18-period stall (periods 48–65) and must sustain near-baseline pace to finish by then; TimesFM unde... | 2 | 0.074885 | [
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{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2012-13 Pumping Station Jabbeke | real | 11 | 28 | 336,410.149384 | 28 | 350,511.309413 | {
"finish_period": 25,
"eac": 340340,
"p_overrun": 0.2,
"schedule_reasoning": "SPI is exactly 1.0 at period 11 and the earned-schedule finish is 25.0, matching the baseline. While TimesFM Q50 hints at early completion (period 18), the stalled Q10 EV path and the exact on-schedule status at the latest observatio... | 3 | 0.029018 | [
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{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2012-13 Pumping Station Jabbeke | real | 16 | 28 | 336,410.149384 | 28 | 350,511.309413 | {
"finish_period": 30,
"eac": 345661,
"p_overrun": 0.25,
"schedule_reasoning": "TimesFM Q50 EV reaches BAC at period 30, consistent with the earned schedule estimate of 28.6 periods, indicating a delay of roughly 4–5 periods beyond the baseline finish of 25.",
"cost_reasoning": "The BAC/CPI formula yields 345... | 2 | 0.013838 | [
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{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2012-17 Building a Dream | real | 16 | 41 | 241,015.00069 | 40 | 314,856.143962 | {
"finish_period": 40,
"eac": 350000,
"p_overrun": 0.99,
"schedule_reasoning": "The Q50 TimesFM EV path reaches BAC at period 40, closely matching the classical earned-schedule estimate of 39.6 periods. Both indicate a major delay from the baseline finish of 28 due to poor schedule performance (SPI=0.768).",
... | 0 | 0.111619 | [
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{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2012-17 Building a Dream | real | 24 | 41 | 241,015.00069 | 40 | 314,856.143962 | {
"finish_period": 38,
"eac": 333827,
"p_overrun": 0.85,
"schedule_reasoning": "EV has stalled for three periods (22–24). TimesFM Q90 reaches BAC at period 35, but Q50 never completes within 40 periods, indicating model uncertainty. Blending the Q90 forecast with historical productivity (remaining work ÷ averag... | 2 | 0.060252 | [
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{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2013-02 Sewage Plant Hove | real | 10 | 17 | 1,236,603.663818 | 17 | 1,146,444.380859 | {
"finish_period": 17,
"eac": 1150000,
"p_overrun": 0.05,
"schedule_reasoning": "SPI = 0.996 indicates the project is essentially on schedule, and the earned-schedule finish estimate is 17.3, virtually matching the baseline of 17. The TimesFM q50 predicts completion at period 14, but that would require earning ... | 0 | 0.003101 | [
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] | [
{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2013-03 Brussels Finance Tower | real | 7 | 18 | 15,440,865.889679 | 18 | 16,338,027.197464 | {
"finish_period": 21,
"eac": 15525000,
"p_overrun": 0.1,
"schedule_reasoning": "SPI of 0.814 confirms schedule slippage; earned schedule estimates 20.3 periods, while TimesFM's P50 of 28 appears distorted by the temporary period-7 EV dip, making period 21 the most credible forecast.",
"cost_reasoning": "CPI ... | 3 | 0.049763 | [
"evm_metrics",
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] | [
{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2013-03 Brussels Finance Tower | real | 10 | 18 | 15,440,865.889679 | 18 | 16,338,027.197464 | {
"finish_period": 20,
"eac": 15550000,
"p_overrun": 0.1,
"schedule_reasoning": "SPI of 0.91 indicates schedule slippage. The EVM earned schedule estimate of 19.4 periods and the TimesFM Q50 of 22 are reconciled to a completion around period 20.",
"cost_reasoning": "CPI is 0.988, so costs are tracking nearly ... | 2 | 0.048233 | [
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"forecast_series",
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] | [
{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2013-04 Kitchen Tower Anderlecht | real | 5 | 11 | 2,113,684 | 11 | 2,512,524 | {
"finish_period": 10,
"eac": 2350000,
"p_overrun": 0.55,
"schedule_reasoning": "Finish is projected at period 10, interpolating between the TimesFM P50 EV completion at period 8 and the more conservative earned-schedule estimate of 15.6; this also aligns with the value-based SPI forecast (~10.4) and acknowledg... | 1 | 0.064686 | [
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{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2013-04 Kitchen Tower Anderlecht | real | 6 | 11 | 2,113,684 | 11 | 2,512,524 | {
"finish_period": 9,
"eac": 2420000,
"p_overrun": 0.98,
"schedule_reasoning": "The TimesFM Q50 EV reaches BAC at period 8, capturing recent earned-value acceleration, while earned schedule indicates period 10. Reconciling the optimistic model signal with the historical SPI of 0.745 points to a finish around pe... | 2 | 0.036825 | [
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{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2013-05 PET Packaging | real | 18 | 31 | 874,554.283691 | 31 | 874,554.283691 | {
"finish_period": 32,
"eac": 874554,
"p_overrun": 0.35,
"schedule_reasoning": "SPI is 0.743, indicating severe schedule slippage. The earned schedule finish estimate is 31.3 periods and the classical EVM projection (24 / 0.743) is 32.3. TimesFM Q50 never reaches BAC within the 24-period horizon, confirming it ... | 1 | 0 | [
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{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2013-06 Government Office Building | real | 7 | 18 | 19,407,310.513184 | 17 | 21,546,846.181877 | {
"finish_period": 19,
"eac": 20478564,
"p_overrun": 0.3,
"schedule_reasoning": "Earned schedule analysis estimates completion at 18.7 periods. The TimesFM P90 EV reaches BAC at period 18, while the P50 median of 25 is discounted because the model under-projects intermittent progress; discrete completion is exp... | 2 | 0.04958 | [
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{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2013-06 Government Office Building | real | 10 | 18 | 19,407,310.513184 | 17 | 21,546,846.181877 | {
"finish_period": 18,
"eac": 19950000,
"p_overrun": 0.25,
"schedule_reasoning": "Earned schedule indicates 17.1 periods and SPI=0.981 shows near-baseline performance; reconciled with TimesFM P50 (20) and P90 (16) to estimate 18 periods.",
"cost_reasoning": "EVM formulas converge near 20.0M (BAC/CPI = 20.03M,... | 1 | 0.07411 | [
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{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2013-07 Family Residence | real | 5 | 11 | 180,476.470566 | 11 | 175,030.650545 | {
"finish_period": 10,
"eac": 174170,
"p_overrun": 0.2,
"schedule_reasoning": "TimesFM median EV reaches BAC exactly at period 10, matching the baseline. Earned schedule indicates 10.6, showing slight schedule risk, but the median forecast supports a period-10 completion.",
"cost_reasoning": "CPI of 1.063 ind... | 1 | 0.004917 | [
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{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2013-07 Family Residence | real | 6 | 11 | 180,476.470566 | 11 | 175,030.650545 | {
"finish_period": 10,
"eac": 173000,
"p_overrun": 0.1,
"schedule_reasoning": "SPI is exactly 1.0 and the earned-schedule finish is 10.0, indicating the project is on baseline schedule. TimesFM EV Q10 shows a stall risk (never reaching BAC), so the EVM schedule estimate is more reliable.",
"cost_reasoning": "... | 1 | 0.011602 | [
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{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2013-08 Timber House | real | 5 | 13 | 501,029.512077 | 12 | 576,624.051826 | {
"finish_period": 10,
"eac": 532000,
"p_overrun": 0.4,
"schedule_reasoning": "TimesFM Q50 EV reaches BAC at period 10, consistent with the baseline finish and the earned-schedule estimate of 10.3 periods.",
"cost_reasoning": "Weighing EVM formulas because TimesFM Q10 EV is stalled at 293k (under-projecting).... | 2 | 0.077388 | [
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{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2013-08 Timber House | real | 7 | 13 | 501,029.512077 | 12 | 576,624.051826 | {
"finish_period": 15,
"eac": 542000,
"p_overrun": 0.45,
"schedule_reasoning": "TimesFM P50 EV reaches BAC at period 15, reflecting the observed intermittent progress pattern with stalls in periods 4 and 7. Classical earned schedule suggests ~13 periods, but the model’s median path better captures the lumpy, st... | 3 | 0.060046 | [
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{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2013-09 Urban Development Project | real | 5 | 10 | 1,537,398.51474 | 10 | 1,696,971.786888 | {
"finish_period": 8,
"eac": 1650000,
"p_overrun": 0.35,
"schedule_reasoning": "TimesFM Q50 EV reaches BAC at period 7, but the Q10 path stalls well short of BAC, signaling material completion risk. The earned-schedule estimate is 8.1 periods. Using period 8 as a conservative, rounded estimate balances the medi... | 2 | 0.02768 | [
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{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2013-09 Urban Development Project | real | 6 | 10 | 1,537,398.51474 | 10 | 1,696,971.786888 | {
"finish_period": 10,
"eac": 1665000,
"p_overrun": 0.45,
"schedule_reasoning": "SPI of 0.867 shows significant schedule slippage. The earned schedule finish estimate is 9.4 periods and the TimesFM Q50 EV path reaches BAC at period 10, both indicating completion about two periods late versus the baseline finish... | 0 | 0.01884 | [
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{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2013-11 Recreation Complex | real | 12 | 20 | 5,392,111.244446 | 19 | 5,451,028.003199 | {
"finish_period": 21,
"eac": 5372117,
"p_overrun": 0.05,
"schedule_reasoning": "Earned schedule finish is 20.2 periods; with SPI at 0.972 and intermittent progress causing TimesFM to under-project (Q50 reaching BAC at period 34 is unrealistically pessimistic), completion is expected early in period 21.",
"co... | 2 | 0.014476 | [
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{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2014-01 Mixed-use Building | real | 9 | 24 | 38,697,822.730469 | 22 | 39,777,643.300781 | {
"finish_period": 23,
"eac": 40314569,
"p_overrun": 0.2,
"schedule_reasoning": "SPI is exactly 1.0 and earned schedule analysis confirms the project is on track to finish at period 23, matching the baseline. TimesFM P10/P50 EV paths are stalled and never reach BAC, so they are disregarded.",
"cost_reasoning"... | 1 | 0.013498 | [
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{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2014-01 Mixed-use Building | real | 14 | 24 | 38,697,822.730469 | 22 | 39,777,643.300781 | {
"finish_period": 20,
"eac": 43090084,
"p_overrun": 0.65,
"schedule_reasoning": "TimesFM Q50 EV reaches BAC at period 18, but the Q10 path never reaches BAC, indicating material stall risk. Earned schedule forecasts period 23. With EV growth decelerating and the project 83% complete, a finish around period 20 ... | 2 | 0.083274 | [
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{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2014-02 Playing Cards | real | 17 | 29 | 191,492.698975 | 29 | 190,266.499023 | {
"finish_period": 32,
"eac": 188700,
"p_overrun": 0.12,
"schedule_reasoning": "SPI of 0.775 and earned schedule finish of 31.4 periods reflect the stalled progress since period 12; while the TimesFM Q90 path reaches BAC at period 26, the median path does not reach BAC in 30 periods, so a conservative estimate ... | 3 | 0.008233 | [
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{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2014-04 Compressor Station Zelzate | real | 14 | 36 | 62,385,597.583984 | 36 | 65,526,930.041992 | {
"finish_period": 35,
"eac": 62574572,
"p_overrun": 0.2,
"schedule_reasoning": "SPI is 0.599, indicating severe schedule delay. The TimesFM P10 EV path stalls and never reaches BAC, signaling model struggle with the stalled series, so the classical earned-schedule estimate of 35 periods is more reliable than t... | 1 | 0.045056 | [
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{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2014-06 Apartment Building (2) | real | 11 | 19 | 3,486,375.469936 | 19 | 3,599,114.111568 | {
"finish_period": 20,
"eac": 3610000,
"p_overrun": 0.2,
"schedule_reasoning": "TimesFM Q50 forecasts EV reaching BAC at period 19, while classical earned schedule indicates 20.4 periods; reconciling to a conservative period 20 given historical schedule performance (SPI=0.943) and the stalled Q10 path signaling... | 1 | 0.003025 | [
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{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2014-07 Apartment Building (3) | real | 5 | 14 | 1,102,536.783813 | 14 | 1,289,696.782776 | {
"finish_period": 14,
"eac": 1298331,
"p_overrun": 0.7,
"schedule_reasoning": "SPI of 0.71 shows significant schedule delay; TimesFM P50 EV reaches BAC at period 14, consistent with the earned-schedule finish estimate of 14 periods.",
"cost_reasoning": "CPI of 0.85 indicates sustained cost overrun; with 35% ... | 0 | 0.006695 | [
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{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2014-07 Apartment Building (3) | real | 8 | 14 | 1,102,536.783813 | 14 | 1,289,696.782776 | {
"finish_period": 14,
"eac": 1316230,
"p_overrun": 0.75,
"schedule_reasoning": "Earned-schedule analysis projects completion at 13.6 periods versus the 12-period baseline, reflecting consistent SPI underperformance (0.937); the TimesFM EV optimism (reaching BAC as early as period 10–12) is tempered by the proj... | 0 | 0.020573 | [
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{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2014-08 Apartment Building (4) | real | 7 | 13 | 1,992,222.087402 | 13 | 2,380,299.859253 | {
"finish_period": 13,
"eac": 2295730,
"p_overrun": 0.75,
"schedule_reasoning": "The TimesFM Q50 EV path reaches BAC at period 13, consistent with the earned-schedule estimate of 12.5 periods and reflecting poor schedule performance (SPI = 0.805).",
"cost_reasoning": "Weighing the EVM BAC/CPI formula (2,295,7... | 0 | 0.035529 | [
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{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2015-06 Family Residence (2) | real | 5 | 10 | 143,673.200283 | 10 | 186,107.000299 | {
"finish_period": 11,
"eac": 196000,
"p_overrun": 1,
"schedule_reasoning": "SPI is 0.889 and the earned-schedule finish estimate is 10.5 periods. The conservative TimesFM Q10 EV path reaches BAC at period 11, while the more aggressive Q50/Q90 paths (periods 7–8) appear optimistic given the historical decelerat... | 1 | 0.053158 | [
"evm_metrics",
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{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2015-06 Family Residence (2) | real | 6 | 10 | 143,673.200283 | 10 | 186,107.000299 | {
"finish_period": 8,
"eac": 186580,
"p_overrun": 1,
"schedule_reasoning": "TimesFM P50 shows cumulative EV reaching BAC at period 8, supported by only 24,251 of work remaining against recent monthly EV rates near 20,000. This overrides the earned-schedule estimate of 9.6, which is anchored by earlier delays.",... | 2 | 0.002542 | [
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{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2015-30 Social Apartments Ypres (1) | real | 5 | 14 | 440,940.890503 | 14 | 440,940.890503 | {
"finish_period": 16,
"eac": 444940,
"p_overrun": 0.15,
"schedule_reasoning": "SPI is 0.863 and earned schedule indicates ~18 periods, while TimesFM Q50 EV reaches BAC at period 15. The stalled Q10 path signals real schedule risk, so I reconcile to period 16.",
"cost_reasoning": "CPI is 0.991, indicating the... | 2 | 0.009069 | [
"evm_metrics",
"forecast_series",
"forecast_series",
"finish"
] | [
{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2015-31 Social Apartments Ypres (2) | real | 8 | 21 | 1,310,723.460083 | 21 | 1,282,185.979733 | {
"finish_period": 19,
"eac": 1295000,
"p_overrun": 0.15,
"schedule_reasoning": "SPI of 0.834 shows the project is behind schedule. The earned schedule method estimates completion at period 17.8, and considering recent EV volatility, a conservative forecast is period 19.",
"cost_reasoning": "CPI of 1.015 indi... | 2 | 0.009994 | [
"evm_metrics",
"forecast_series",
"forecast_series",
"finish"
] | [
{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2015-31 Social Apartments Ypres (2) | real | 12 | 21 | 1,310,723.460083 | 21 | 1,282,185.979733 | {
"finish_period": 24,
"eac": 1305000,
"p_overrun": 0.18,
"schedule_reasoning": "SPI is 0.42 showing severe schedule delay, but earned schedule estimates completion at period 23.9. TimesFM under-projects EV (Q50 at period 37, Q10 stalls), likely because the model extrapolates the recent flat spell too aggressiv... | 3 | 0.017793 | [
"evm_metrics",
"forecast_series",
"forecast_series",
"finish"
] | [
{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2015-32 Social Apartments Ypres (3) | real | 8 | 14 | 2,101,911.26933 | 13 | 2,509,031.420713 | {
"finish_period": 14,
"eac": 2265391,
"p_overrun": 0.35,
"schedule_reasoning": "SPI of 1.245 shows the project is ahead of plan, but the remaining work is heavily back-loaded in the baseline profile. The earned-schedule finish estimate is 14.0, matching the baseline finish. TimesFM outputs are unreliable here ... | 1 | 0.097105 | [
"evm_metrics",
"forecast_series",
"forecast_series",
"finish"
] | [
{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2016-01 Railway Bridge (1) | real | 8 | 14 | 671,383.498779 | 14 | 703,703.498779 | {
"finish_period": 16,
"eac": 731588,
"p_overrun": 0.4,
"schedule_reasoning": "TimesFM Q50 forecasts cumulative EV reaching BAC at period 16, reflecting the intermittent progress pattern observed to date. This is supported by the earned-schedule estimate of 14.5 periods, making period 16 a defensible completion... | 2 | 0.039625 | [
"evm_metrics",
"forecast_series",
"forecast_series",
"finish"
] | [
{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2016-02 Railway Bridge (2) | real | 5 | 13 | 962,181.558411 | 13 | 972,341.558411 | {
"finish_period": 15,
"eac": 975651,
"p_overrun": 0.1,
"schedule_reasoning": "SPI of 0.935 signals schedule delay. TimesFM Q50 EV reaches BAC at period 19 but the Q10 path flatlines due to lumpy/intermittent progress, so the earned-schedule estimate of ~14.6 periods is more reliable; rounded to 15.",
"cost_r... | 2 | 0.003404 | [
"evm_metrics",
"forecast_series",
"forecast_series",
"finish"
] | [
{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2016-02 Railway Bridge (2) | real | 7 | 13 | 962,181.558411 | 13 | 972,341.558411 | {
"finish_period": 17,
"eac": 975000,
"p_overrun": 0.25,
"schedule_reasoning": "SPI is 0.864 and the earned-schedule finish is 16.8, indicating significant schedule slippage beyond the baseline of 12. TimesFM’s EV forecasts under-project severely (Q10 is flat, Q50 never reaches BAC in 20 periods) because the re... | 4 | 0.002734 | [
"evm_metrics",
"forecast_series",
"forecast_series",
"finish"
] | [
{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2016-03 Railway Bridge (3) | real | 5 | 11 | 926,888.010864 | 11 | 910,728.010864 | {
"finish_period": 10,
"eac": 921488,
"p_overrun": 0.1,
"schedule_reasoning": "TimesFM’s Q50 EV path reaches BAC by period 8, but this is optimistic given cumulative SPI of 0.962 and the earned-schedule estimate of 12.6. Reconciling these and noting the strong period-5 catch-up (EV exceeded PV by 84k), the proj... | 1 | 0.011815 | [
"evm_metrics",
"forecast_series",
"forecast_series",
"finish"
] | [
{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
C2016-03 Railway Bridge (3) | real | 6 | 11 | 926,888.010864 | 11 | 910,728.010864 | {
"finish_period": 12,
"eac": 920168,
"p_overrun": 0.1,
"schedule_reasoning": "SPI of 0.923 and earned schedule at 12.5 periods signal a delayed completion; we estimate finish around period 12, weighing the EVM schedule indicator over the TimesFM paths given the unrealistic q10 stalled projection.",
"cost_rea... | 1 | 0.010365 | [
"evm_metrics",
"forecast_series",
"forecast_series",
"finish"
] | [
{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a senior project-controls forecaster. Workflow: (1) call evm_metrics for SPI/CPI and the EAC formulas; (2) call forecast_series for EV (and AC if useful) with a horizon large enough to reach BAC; (3) reconcile the TimesFM forecast with the EVM formulas, deciding which... |
End of preview. Expand in Data Studio
Slipstream agent traces · Kimi K2.6 → MiniCPM5-1B distillation set
Agentic tool-calling traces for project-controls forecasting, generated by Kimi K2.6 over
schedule-grounded projects and used to distil a
MiniCPM5-1B forecasting agent.
Each trace is an OpenAI-format messages + tool_calls conversation: the agent calls evm_metrics
and forecast_series (TimesFM 2.5), then finish with a reconciled finish-period / EAC / overrun
estimate and its reasoning.
Configs
traces(default) —distill_traces.jsonl, 132 quality-filtered Kimi K2.6 agent traces. Each row carries the full conversation (messages,tool_calls) plus ground truth and scoring:project,src(real/synthetic),k(periods observed),n,bac,gt_finish,gt_cost,forecast(the agent'sfinishanswer),finish_err,eac_ape. Quality: finish-err p50 ~1.9 periods, EAC err p50 ~1.3%.domain—domain_knowledge.jsonl, 35 curated project-controls / Earned-Value / forecasting Q&A.
The held-out evaluation (distilled 1B vs the Kimi parent) is reported in the
model card and the Slipstream
repo's RESULTS.md.
Built for the Build Small Hackathon (Backyard AI track).
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