| # Sources: the Cumberland River record (January-June 2025) |
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|
| All sources are works of the U.S. federal government (public domain). `envs/flood_ops/tools/curate_cumberland.py` |
| fetches them, caches the raw responses in `raw/` (git-ignored), and writes `basin.json` and `record.csv.gz`. |
|
|
| ## Real (the record) |
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|
| | what | where | series | |
| |---|---|---| |
| | dam release, cfs (hourly mean) | USACE CWMS Data API, office LRN | `<dam>.Flow.Ave.1Hour.1Hour.man-rev` | |
| | dam storage, acre-feet (hourly) | same | `<dam>.Stor.Inst.1Hour.0.man-rev` | |
| | pool elevation, ft (hourly) | same | `<dam>.Elev-Pool.Inst.1Hour.0.man-rev` | |
| | top and bottom of the flood pool, top of the inactive pool | CWMS location levels | `<loc>.Stor.Inst.0.Top of Flood` etc. J. Percy Priest's bottom of flood pool is seasonal: 483 ft to 21 March, 490.5 ft from 21 April to 9 October | |
| | flow at Burkesville KY | USGS 03414100 (Water Data OGC API) | discharge, 00060 | |
| | flow at Nashville TN | USGS 03431500 | discharge, 00060 | |
| | stage at Celina TN | USGS 03417500 | gage height, 00065 (no discharge is published) | |
| | flood categories, stage-flow ratings | NOAA NWPS, gauges BRKK2, CLAT1, NAST1 | action / minor / moderate / major | |
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|
| Dams: WLCK2-WOLF_CREEK, DLHT1-DALE_HOLLOW, CEHT1-CENTER_HILL, JPHT1-J_PERCY_PRIEST. |
| |
| Flood thresholds used (flow, cfs): |
| |
| | gauge | action | minor | moderate | major | from | |
| |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---| |
| | Burkesville (BRK) | 32,500 | 40,000 | 57,500 | 90,000 | NWS published flows | |
| | Celina (CEL) | 52,006 | 76,030 | 91,010 | 110,011 | NWS stages 30/40/45/50 ft through the NWS rating | |
| | Nashville (NAS) | 70,072 | 119,465 | 128,065 | 154,611 | NWS stages 30/40/42/45 ft through the NWS rating | |
| |
| Gaps: the hourly series are complete except Celina (85 hours) and Nashville (3 hours), filled by linear |
| interpolation (`basin.json`, `gap_hours_filled`). |
| |
| | river forecasts NWS issued, Jan-Jun 2025 (live mode) | Ohio River Forecast Center products RVFCMU and RVFCML, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's NWS text archive (`mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/afos/retrieve.py`) | SHEF `.ER ... HGIFF` stage forecasts, 6-hourly to about 5 days, at BRKK2 (30 issues), CLAT1 (219), NAST1 (228); turned into flow through the NWS ratings; `forecasts.csv.gz` (`tools/curate_forecasts.py`) | |
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|
| | the 3D replay's map: imagery, terrain, rivers, reservoirs | USGS The National Map orthoimagery (USGSImageryOnly, USDA NAIP; the Kentucky side colour-matched to Tennessee's at the state-line seam); USGS 3D Elevation Program (3DEPElevation ImageServer); USGS National Hydrography Dataset (NHDPlus small-scale flowlines and waterbodies); dam locations from CWMS, gauge locations from NWPS | `openenv/flood_openenv/web/twin/basin.json.gz` (`tools/twin/build_basin.py`); display only, never in a cost | |
|
|
| ## Derived |
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|
| - **6-hour steps (UTC):** mean release and flow over the step; storage and elevation at its start. |
| - **Dam inflow** I[t] = R[t] + (S[t+1] − S[t]) / 0.49587, from the record's own mass balance. It is noisy where the |
| storage record is (it can be negative for a step). |
| - **Local runoff at a gauge** L[t] = Q[t] − Σ routed record releases. With these two definitions the Corps' own |
| releases reproduce the record's storage and gauge flows exactly (`core/tests/test_core.py`). |
| - **Travel times** (hours), from cross-correlating 24-hour-smoothed hourly changes in the 2025 record, reach by reach: |
|
|
| | reach | lag | |
| |---|---:| |
| | Wolf Creek → Burkesville | 10 | |
| | Burkesville → Celina | 8 | |
| | Celina → Cordell Hull (pool) | 0 | |
| | Cordell Hull → Old Hickory | 6 | |
| | Old Hickory → Nashville | 2 | |
| | Center Hill → Old Hickory | 16 | |
| | J. Percy Priest → Nashville | 2 | |
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|
| Dale Hollow's releases are too steady to identify. Its 7.3 miles to the Cumberland use the 3.5 mph measured below |
| Wolf Creek (2 h). The sums give the dam-to-gauge lags in `basin.json`. A fractional lag is split linearly between |
| two 6-hour steps. |
| - **Maximum release:** the largest hourly release in the 2018-2025 record. WC 59,900, DH 10,100 and CH 25,300 (all |
| February 2019), JPP 14,900 (February 2020). |
| - **Ramp:** the 99.9th percentile of the change between consecutive 6-hour mean releases, 2018-2025, rounded: WC |
| 18,000, DH 4,500, CH 10,000 and JPP 5,000 cfs per step. |
| - **Storage → elevation tables:** from the hourly record plus the official levels. Used for display only. |
|
|
| - **Forecast errors (live mode):** for each issued forecast, the log ratio of forecast to observed flow, lead by |
| lead (observed = the mean of the two 6-hour steps around the valid time). 214 Celina and 222 Nashville forecasts |
| reach 5 days. The spread grows from 0.09 (Celina) and 0.13 (Nashville) at 0-12 h to 0.38 and 0.36 at 108-120 h. |
| The bias falls to -0.26 and -0.19 at 108-120 h. |
| - **Forecast scenarios (live mode):** each of the 8 members replays one issued forecast's whole error path, |
| multiplied into the true series (positive values only). |
| - Upper-basin series take Celina's path: Wolf Creek and Dale Hollow inflow, Burkesville and Celina local flow. |
| - Lower-basin series take the Nashville path from the product issued closest in time. |
| - There are no forecasts at the four storage lakes, so their inflows borrow the nearest gauge's error. |
| - Leads beyond 5 days keep the 5-day error. |
| - Members are seeded by task and decision. |
|
|
| ## Assumed (modelling choices) |
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|
| - Cordell Hull and Old Hickory are run-of-river: their pool changes are part of the local runoff. |
| - Minimum release 0 cfs. In April 2025 Wolf Creek released 20 cfs for three days. |
| - The cost weights (README) and the 6-hour decision step. |
| - Drawn tiers, labelled in the task text: |
| - `storm`: runoff above the week-before baseflow multiplied by 1.5, at the dams and at the gauges; |
| - `full`: every lake starts with half its flood pool in use. |
| - Plan mode: the agent knows the window's inflows and runoff exactly (hindsight). Live mode replaces that with the |
| forecast scenarios above. |
| - Live mode: the spill penalty (100 per 1,000 acre-feet per step above the top of the flood pool or below the |
| inactive pool), 24-hour decision blocks, 8 scenarios. |
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|
