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if, just as an example, bulger levine, they did a study. they looked to a poll-
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... okay, so now she writes the sql and she tells her fans, "i'm going to publish this as soon as i get 5 million people give me $5."
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by emulating, by learning, by seeing what people do to please their customers. and you compete with them to do-
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well, i'm schizophrenic about the antitrust. well, because frankly when-
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... is that this is a tremendous amount of warming that should scare the crap out of you.
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by 10 degrees fahrenheit global average, you end up with thousands of feet of ice over north america sea levels 300 feet lower.
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how do we know this? well, first of all, we've already warmed about two degrees. this black dot is where we are now. this is a little ice age. we're about two degrees above that.
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one third of the ultimate warming. and i should say when i talk about six degrees...
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and if you say, "well, we'll deal with climate change." you're normalizing... this the same way we normalized a million americans dying during covid.
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when it comes to adaptation, when people say, "we'll adapt to climate change," they look at situations like this. like, "oh well, you know."
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and there's a strong moral component to looking at climate change adaptation in this way. and you've got to look at the individuals here.
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... value on the x-axis. yes. what's the probability of this occurring-
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... on climate impacts? and there's a couple important things to note about this. two important things. first one is that there's-
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... there's no probability of a good outcome with climate change. decades of work on this has shown co-
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... you're going to be worse off. the only question is how much worse off.
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climate change is going to make us worse off. and if you ask the question, "how much worse off?"
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this is my reading of the most recent literature on this. now-
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... that's the world they're going to live in. they're going to be stripped of their liberty. if you care about liberty, this is not a free world. a world of worst case scenario of climate-
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but let me just say that air pollution from fossil fuels kills millions of people. millions of people every year.
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you do have some dispatchable power to counterbalance the intermittency.
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and again, the people in texas that are generating energy, they're not birkenstock wearing hippies, they're people who want to make money. and you make money with solar energy. it is now the cheapest power.
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we're going to be worse off. now we can argue about how much worse off. you can't really argue we're going to be worse off. and we can already see the negative impacts. we already see them.
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if we roll the dice of climate change, and it turns out to be really bad-
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if we decide we're not going... in 10 years, if we say, "well-"
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and you go back to fossil fuel. so you're really not out anything. in fact, you're probably still better off.
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rapid and large reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. why not?
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we shouldn't do it and we can't do it.
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science compels. let's look at what the official science says about one important bottom line, the projected economic impact of warming.
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and their most recent report issued in february expressed low confidence that economic impacts would be any larger than their prior estimates.
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four times larger in 2090 than it is today as shown by the blue line.
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the future us economy would be only 4% smaller than it might have been as shown by that green line.
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... says that the aggregate economic impact of warming three times the paris goal is minimal.
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in other words, warming will hardly be a catastrophe or crisis.
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i was flabbergasted when i found that out by reading the report, but it's hard to deny.
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why do you believe these projections when the climate matters themselves are so deficient?
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one reason is that every un scenario for the future, whatever the emissions-
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another is that damage projections using very different robust models give similar results.
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doesn't matter exactly what the impacts are, just that they're small. a few percent, not tens of percent.
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but most importantly, the few percent for a few degrees is in accord with experience.
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world is two degrees warmer today than in 1900 as andy showed you.
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even so, we've seen the greatest improvement ever.
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and by the way, today's death rate from extreme weather is 1/50th.
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it beggars belief to think that another few degrees of warming over the next hundred years will significantly derail that progress, let alone reverse it.
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proposition is also unjustified because large and rapid reductions in emissions are disruptive.
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moving too quickly causes turmoil and deploys immature technologies.
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of course, that's based on assumptions that can be challenged.
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but lord house's main takeaway-
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... if you're going to reduce emissions, take the time to do it gracefully.
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proposition is immoral because of the word "us".
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in fact, if most of the world were listening tonight, they'd be asking, "what do you mean by us?"
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enjoy abundant and affordable energy. we can't imagine life without it.
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but the globe's other six and a half billion people down toward the left and the bottom here are energy starved.
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liable and affordable energy is the overwhelming priority for those developing nations-
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... while reducing greenhouse gas emissions comes in last.
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stabilize, not even reduced warming influences at an allegedly safe level. this curve has to go to zero at the end of the century.
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anthony downs was an economist working at ucla in the late 1960s.
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as he watched the proliferation of automobiles worsen the smog-
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... the elites' environmental deterioration is often the common man's improved standard of living.
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now, when the proposition says, "compels us-"
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why the nigerian president says africa is being punished by western decisions-
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... especially when the developed world has neither the will nor their capacity to pay their green premium.
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the proposition is also immoral because continued exaggerations like science compels-
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... and is making young people reluctant to have children.
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miley cyrus says that she doesn't want to bring another person onto a "piece of shit planet."
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climate doomerism can be harmful because it robs us of agency.
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maybe any media description of a catastrophic climate future-
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... based upon demonstrably deficient models should come with a [inaudible 00:05:33] like warning.
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the facts and figures about climate and energy that i've laid out show that the world can't get to net zero by mid-century, and that net zero by 2100 would be an heroic achievement.
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if we can continue to exaggerate the importance and urgency of reducing emissions at the expense of more immediate and tangible societal needs.
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finally, let me turn to the fantasy of large and rapid reductions. energy systems are recalcitrant for a good reason-
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... and there are many stakeholders whose interests-
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the energy systems are best changed slowly and steadily over decades, more like orthodonture than the tooth extraction implied by large and rapid.
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the wind turbines and the solar panels that andy is so enamored with are indeed the cheapest way of producing electricity now.
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so you need a backup system for when the renewables fail.
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those times are so important the germans coined a word for them.
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when wind generation averaged only 11%-
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... to ride through those long droughts, the backup system has to be at least as capable as the wind and solar alone. and hence at least as expensive.
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in other words, the most expensive part of a renewables heavy grid is the reliability.
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here are the costs of electricity from a study that demanded-
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it model grids with an optimal mix of gas, nuclear, wind, solar, and various methods of storage.
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importantly, they used 40 years of-
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solar and wind have other drawbacks. they need a lot more land because sunlight and wind are much less concentrated.
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renewable energy technologies also use a lot more high value materials.
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fortunately, those high value materials and their processing are concentrated in inconvenient countries.
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75% of the world's cobalt.
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and although china uses less than 40% of the world's solar panels, it makes 75% of all panels.
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the drawbacks of fossil fuels that so disturb andy would still be there in a high renewables world.
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in addition, renewables may not remain the cheapest form of generation.
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mineral supplies will have a hard time keeping up.
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... that uses fossil fuels. it's a dirty grid. and this doesn't include all the externalities. so when we talk about costs, dr. kunan is not including the millions of people that die-
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they're still burning fossil fuels because in 2014 they said they were going to peak emissions in 2030. and we can talk more about this. i encourage you to ask me questions about this 'cause this is actually very interesting.
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so they're still building coal fire power plants, and they're still burning coal, but they're going to peak in 2030 because they understand the cheapest energy is solar and they're cranking out solar power.
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nobody knows. now this is the kind of thing the market should fix, but if the market doesn't, then you stop trying to transition, said before-
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there's no trend, in long-term trend in hurricanes, in mid latitude storms.
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and what you see is that the real outliers are this set of green points.
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developing countries need to make their own trade offs.
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fossil fuels don't have to pollute, you can clean them up.
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... died because of non-optimal temperatures, that was about 9% of-
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most of those deaths will link to cold temperatures rather than warm temperatures.
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... to go with my solar panel, so i had power. when the grid goes down, and the grid, we have a very unstable grid-
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