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collingray
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forecasting

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mani-KwiELp1gJuHEZ7zjdnzx
Will Taylor Swift’s ERAS Tour Movie make over 100 million at the US box office its opening weekend?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-10T04:13:05
2023-10-16T15:06:50
2023-10-16T15:06:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-LTw9rrM4mZYbrAYnSoRj
Will the Knicks make the eastern conference finals?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-10T03:36:10
2024-05-19T16:21:06
2024-05-19T16:21:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-V5kcRq0Nm2mitzboZp2A
Will Hou Yu-ih and Ko Wen-je run for Taiwan president together in 2024?
That means one of them will file the president while the other one as the vice president(both cases count) before the deadline(Nov/24/2023). Ref: https://web.cec.gov.tw/
2023-10-10T03:08:44
2023-11-24T08:33:51
2023-11-24T08:33:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-VGQFAXPg2AAv1Si2Muy1
Will US 10YR Treasury yields reach 5%?
Will US 10YR reach 5% In a month's time, around Nov. 10th.
2023-10-10T01:08:30
2023-10-26T11:04:35
2023-10-26T11:04:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-C0sC6QZAbNkYw3K07JjU
Will Australia make the list to participate in Eurovision 2024?
Australia was granted participation in the contest until 2023, the past edition, but it's not in the provisional list of participating countries for Eurovision 2024. The European Broadcasting Union is expected to release the official list of participating countries by the end of October. If Australia is in the list, this market resolves YES, otherwise it resolves NO.
2023-10-09T23:16:46
2023-12-06T08:54:58
2023-12-06T08:54:58
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-w5HWpumG8wlapMUaDorW
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the Superbowl in 2024?
49ers are 5-0 and looking great. Will they win the big one this year?
2023-10-09T22:37:22
2024-02-11T20:00:00
2024-02-12T08:33:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ce32BVzdVfXitomBzs7e
Will xAI build a LLM as powerful as GPT-3.5?
This market will resolve YES if, by the end of June 2024, Elon Musk's xAI announces that they have a language model at least as powerful as GPT-3.5 or Claude. By default, I will use the Arena Elo rating to decide whether a model meets the bar. If there is no such rating, I will use other benchmarks (e.g., MMLU) or my subjective impression. If there is a lot of disagreement, I will resolve NA.
2023-10-09T20:54:12
2024-05-19T12:23:57
2024-05-19T12:23:57
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-hx98AcZizFQbwEawN0kH
Will US viewership for Superbowl LVIII on Feb 11, 2024 in Vegas exceed US viewership of the Apollo 11 moon landing?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_watched_television_broadcasts_in_the_United_States US viewership must exceed 137.5 million average viewers to be considered higher than the Apollo 11 moon landing.
2023-10-09T18:54:21
2024-02-12T23:32:24
2024-02-12T23:32:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Wuae37tRNQFtRFzO9FoM
Will Trump do jail time in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-09T18:12:39
2024-11-09T04:59:00
2024-11-09T11:59:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-AGeWthWyrSZfR0prIenZ
Will Ohio pass both reproductive rights and legalization of marijuana amendments in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-09T17:59:17
2023-11-07T19:44:45
2023-11-07T19:44:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-P6lIP3Dzb9pdbFQ3GbZA
Will the US spend more for Ukraine in 2023?
This is a market on whether the US government will pass another bill that includes military funding for Ukraine in 2023. A consensus of credible reporting will be used.
2023-10-09T16:55:37
2024-01-08T08:24:52
2024-01-08T08:24:52
no
MANIFOLD
mani-y7gVNSkHZlwpM7eeyr8I
Will China invade Taiwan in the next 3 months
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-09T16:38:41
2024-01-09T16:38:00
2024-01-10T07:51:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-blMwVltCTWo9edUPLu4a
Will Brent Crude price go above $95 before 30th November 2023?
As the Israel-Hamas conflict intensifies, there could be impacts on Brent Crude prices. Although there aren't direct influences in supply and demand, the geopolitical risks may be a factor for traders.
2023-10-09T15:54:18
2023-11-30T05:26:26
2023-11-30T05:26:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-VqcK714P3rPxwwgAa2qS
Will Russia conduct a nuclear test before December 31 2023?
Recent news reporting indicates that multiple countries are considering conducting a nuclear test. Activity has been observed on satellite imagery at the nuclear test sites for Russia, China, and the USA. The question is specific to Russia, will they conduct a nuclear test?
2023-10-09T15:46:44
2023-12-31T11:17:53
2023-12-31T11:17:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-fOvfuTF03f4b9GKQVocg
Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before March 10 2024?
Resolution Criteria This question will resolve as Yes if, beforeMar 10 2024, credible sources report that Yahya Sinwar has either stepped down or been replaced as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip, been captured by Israel, or that he has died. The question will resolve as No if he continuously holds his position or if there is no reporting indicating a change in status. Background Info Yahya Sinwar is the Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip. Israel was previously reported to have threatened Sinwar in 2022 in response to his calls for violence against Israel, and some Israeli politicians have previously called for his assassination. Following the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel it was reported that Sinwar's home was bombed by Israel.
2023-10-09T15:40:39
2024-03-11T21:59:00
2024-03-14T03:22:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-GNRnCf0pNbqorhe9JdAH
Will a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 10,000 deaths before 2025?
This question will resolve as Yes if, for the years 2023 and 2024 combined, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) reports 10,000 or more state-based conflict deaths for the Iran-Israel conflict (specifically, the category "state-based violence"). The 10,000 deaths need not occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's methodology in calculating conflict deaths. If UCDP does not report data for 2023 and 2024, the question resolves as N/A. The relationship between Iran and Israel has been fraught since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979. Iran officially recognizes Israel as an illegitimate entity and has supported various anti-Israel militant groups, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon. The two countries have engaged in covert operations against each other and have been indirect military adversaries in conflicts in the Middle East. Tensions have increased in recent years, particularly with Iran's pursuit of nuclear capabilities and its involvement in the Syrian Civil War. In 2018, the US pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal and reimposed sanctions, further exacerbating the tensions between Iran and Israel. In recent years, there have been several instances of direct conflict between Iran and Israel, including airstrikes attributed to Israel on Iranian targets in Syria and Iraq, and rocket attacks from Iranian-backed groups in Syria into Israel. These events have heightened concerns over the possibility of a larger conflict breaking out between the two countries and their allies in the region. U.S. officials stated that Israel appeared to be behind a late-January 2023 drone strike on a military factory in Iran, as part of an operation to contain Tehran's military and nuclear ambitions.
2023-10-09T15:36:32
2025-01-01T20:59:00
2025-01-05T21:39:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-IXPA4v7waElX2BUZ6TzF
Will a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?
This question will resolve as Yes if, for the years 2023 and 2024 combined, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) reports 1,000 or more state-based conflict deaths for the Iran-Israel conflict (specifically, the category "state-based violence"). The 1,000 deaths need not occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's methodology in calculating conflict deaths. If UCDP does not report data for 2023 and 2024, the question resolves as N/A. The relationship between Iran and Israel has been fraught since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979. Iran officially recognizes Israel as an illegitimate entity and has supported various anti-Israel militant groups, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon. The two countries have engaged in covert operations against each other and have been indirect military adversaries in conflicts in the Middle East. Tensions have increased in recent years, particularly with Iran's pursuit of nuclear capabilities and its involvement in the Syrian Civil War. In 2018, the US pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal and reimposed sanctions, further exacerbating the tensions between Iran and Israel. In recent years, there have been several instances of direct conflict between Iran and Israel, including airstrikes attributed to Israel on Iranian targets in Syria and Iraq, and rocket attacks from Iranian-backed groups in Syria into Israel. These events have heightened concerns over the possibility of a larger conflict breaking out between the two countries and their allies in the region. U.S. officials stated that Israel appeared to be behind a late-January 2023 drone strike on a military factory in Iran, as part of an operation to contain Tehran's military and nuclear ambitions.
2023-10-09T15:35:05
2025-01-01T20:59:00
2025-01-05T21:39:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-pX9HWElu1wWNmnkL6NjW
Will another nation declare war in the Israel-Hamas conflict by July 15th 2024?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if another sovereign nation officially declares war on either Israel or Hamas by July 15 2024, ET. Declarations of war must be clear, explicit, and from a sovereign nation. The market will resolve to "No" if no such official declaration of war is made by the specified date. Note that Israel or Hamas declaring war is not considered for this market. Further note if e.g. Hezbollah declared war, it will not satisfy a “Yes” resolution - only Lebanon itself declaring war will suffice.
2023-10-09T15:28:47
2024-07-16T21:59:00
2024-07-17T09:01:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FsaZWdy6oL6gRZJe8RGJ
Will Hamas continuously be in power in Gaza until Jan 15th 2024?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas is still recognized as the primary governing authority in the Gaza Strip by Jan 15, 2024. "Primary governing authority" is defined as Hamas having predominant political and military control in the Gaza Strip. If at any time prior to the expiry date, Hamas is no longer recognized as the primary governing authority, the market will resolve to "No". In case of shared governance or significant disruptions, the group or authority with the majority of control will be considered the primary governing authority. This market will resolve according to credible reporting.
2023-10-09T15:25:09
2024-01-15T20:59:00
2024-01-17T05:21:10
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-WQbIT7Qgpx7Kb2tKrkig
Will Hamas continuously be in power in Gaza until Dec 15th?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas is still recognized as the primary governing authority in the Gaza Strip by Dec 15, 2023. "Primary governing authority" is defined as Hamas having predominant political and military control in the Gaza Strip. If at any time prior to the expiry date, Hamas is no longer recognized as the primary governing authority, the market will resolve to "No". In case of shared governance or significant disruptions, the group or authority with the majority of control will be considered the primary governing authority. This market will resolve according to credible reporting.
2023-10-09T15:24:47
2023-12-15T20:59:00
2023-12-15T21:08:44
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Op6ZXQBBAyBnCzFk3zlW
Will Hamas continuously be in power in Gaza until Nov 15th?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas is still recognized as the primary governing authority in the Gaza Strip byNov 15, 2023. "Primary governing authority" is defined as Hamas having predominant political and military control in the Gaza Strip. If at any time prior to the expiry date, Hamas is no longer recognized as the primary governing authority, the market will resolve to "No". In case of shared governance or significant disruptions, the group or authority with the majority of control will be considered the primary governing authority. This market will resolve according to credible reporting.
2023-10-09T15:24:16
2023-11-15T20:59:00
2023-11-16T05:36:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-CI3cDWRWXO6VlWjQL4Fs
Will Hezbollah deploy ground forces in Israel by Dec 10?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially deploys ground forces in Israel in the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas on or before December 10, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Deployment is defined as Hezbollah sending troops to engage in combat against Israel. This market will resolve according to a consensus of credible sources. If no such deployment occurs by the resolution date, the market will resolve to "No". Note that the market may resolve before the expiry date if Hezbollah's deployment of ground forces in the war is confirmed prior to this date.
2023-10-09T15:22:23
2023-12-11T05:19:14
2023-12-11T05:19:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-bQRzwXsmh02IzvcgOIR7
Will Hezbollah deploy ground forces in Israel by Nov 10?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially deploys ground forces in Israel in the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas on or before November 10, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Deployment is defined as Hezbollah sending troops to engage in combat against Israel. This market will resolve according to a consensus of credible sources. If no such deployment occurs by the resolution date, the market will resolve to "No". Note that the market may resolve before the expiry date if Hezbollah's deployment of ground forces in the war is confirmed prior to this date.
2023-10-09T15:21:55
2023-11-11T20:59:00
2023-11-12T05:42:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ZQWOP6WegvC0Cp49WBLu
Will Hezbollah deploy ground forces in Israel by Oct 20?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially deploys ground forces in Israel in the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas on or before October 20, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Deployment is defined as Hezbollah sending troops to engage in combat against Israel. This market will resolve according to a consensus of credible sources. If no such deployment occurs by the resolution date, the market will resolve to "No". Note that the market may resolve before the expiry date if Hezbollah's deployment of ground forces in the war is confirmed prior to this date.
2023-10-09T15:20:26
2023-10-21T21:59:00
2023-10-21T22:24:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PJFpAYgV1hkEnAEZVgyI
Will Trump win the 2024 Iowa Caucus?
Will Trump win the 2024 Iowa Caucus?
2023-10-09T15:05:45
2024-01-15T19:22:31
2024-01-15T19:22:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-tcM1mIskAuRg57pM1dRC
Will Taylor Swift or Travis Kelce publicly confirm they have broken up by end of 2023?
The market will resolve to YES if either Taylor Swift or Travis Kelce publicly confirms their breakup through any publicly accessible medium including but not limited to social media posts, official statements, interviews, or reputable news outlets before December 31, 2023. Indirect confirmations such as statements from close associates or family members, or significant changes in social media interactions will not be considered sufficient for market resolution. The market will resolve to NO if there has been no direct public confirmation from either individual by this date. If it emerges that Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce were never dating in the first place, the market will resolve as N/A.
2023-10-09T14:36:42
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T06:33:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-scztvZtT7grJT7iaiRQC
Will there be a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas by Oct 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas on or before Oct 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media sources. An official ceasefire agreement requires public recognition by both parties. Any form of informal, unratified, or verbal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. The ceasefire must last 48h and to have begun before the resolution date (if the ceasefire begins on Oct 30, for example, this market would resolve to "Yes" if the ceasefire continues for 48h). Resolves according to https://polymarket.com/event/israel-and-hamas-ceasefire-by-oct-31 [link preview]
2023-10-09T13:51:31
2023-11-01T19:53:50
2023-11-01T19:53:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wrwB5nnr8dTjxanUZmZo
Will there be a well-reported death/hospitalization associated with Puracy's pop-top aluminum cans in 2023/2024
This can of household cleaner sure looks like a soft drink container. https://puracy.com/products/clean-can?variant=39635724173408
2023-10-09T13:49:01
2025-01-01T09:51:03
2025-01-01T21:22:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-aRqrewwid6sF6NrM5bGs
Will the S&P 500 close higher on October 10 than it closed on October 9?
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT. Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day. This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of October (inspired by Alex B. Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize. Rank---Award 1 2500 2 1750 3 1250 4 750 5 500 Good luck forecasting! Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS
2023-10-09T13:28:00
2023-10-10T11:00:00
2023-10-10T13:17:58
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-o9Nm2o4VBQXL5Tvy62s8
Will RFK Jr. get more than 5% of the popular vote in the Nov 2024 US Election?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-09T12:06:41
2024-11-06T20:59:00
2024-11-06T21:13:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-uxXhuK3wgiJ2kwYYeJR9
Will OpenAI announce that they will stop using freely crawled data for training large language models, by April 9 2024?
Kyunghyun Cho predicts: "OpenAI will announce within 6 months that they are from there on exclusively using sourced (and often paid for data) and stop using freely crawled data for their large language models." https://twitter.com/kchonyc/status/1711182191751729238
2023-10-09T12:06:27
2024-04-09T23:59:00
2024-04-10T22:03:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-d2JJvGrlxolRJMbihZCR
Will Donald Trump be convicted of a crime before the 2024 election?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-09T11:47:17
2024-05-31T00:27:03
2024-05-31T00:27:03
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-s1lMpbjTxAGio3xTJEjV
Will Vladimir Putin win Russia's 2024 presidential election with 80% or more of the vote?
Russia is set to hold a presidential election on 17 March 2024. According to Wikipedia, Vladimir Putin's share of the vote in previous elections were as follows: 2018: 77.53% 2012: 64.35% 2008: N/A (Putin was Vice President; his ally, Dmitry Medvedev ran for President; Medvedev received 71.25% of the vote) 2004: 71.91% 2000: 53.44% Will Putin's share of the vote in the 2024 election be 80% or more, as recorded on Wikipedia's election page? In the unlikely event of a second round of voting, the second round's percentage will be used. Related question: (https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-vladimir-putin-win-russias-202)
2023-10-09T10:00:48
2024-03-18T08:51:29
2024-03-18T08:51:29
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-DD6mevSi5Wkc9L5zSEDi
Did the head of Egyptian intelligence warn Netanyahu about a "fierce" operation about to take place around Gaza?
Ynet reports that the head of Egyptian intelligence, Abbas Kamel, warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that "something fierce will happen from Gaza" ten days ago. Reportedly, "Netanyahu seemed unbothered, said the IDF is 'swamped' in dealing with terror from the West Bank." Netanyahu's office has denied the claims. This question will resolve YES if substantial evidence emerges by the end of 2024 that Abbas Kamel warned Benjamin Netanyahu about an unusually serious operation about to be launched out of Gaza less than two weeks before October 7. It will resolve NO otherwise. "Substantial evidence" is rather subjective, so I will exercise some discretion in determining whether this question should resolve YES or not. However, I will err on the side of being conservative: if credible sources disagree about whether this is true or not by the end of 2024, the question will resolve as NO. The evidence needs to be fairly unambiguous in order to resolve this question positively.
2023-10-09T09:59:01
2024-12-31T12:59:00
2024-12-31T14:00:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wluc4fM8Bc1oGwhq0q5m
Will a "lifetime smoking ban" become law in the UK before the next General Election?
Rishi Sunak has announced that he will be putting forward legislation for a "lifetime smoking ban". This would mean that the age for buying cigarettes will rise by one year every year and that anyone born after a cutoff date (possibly 1st January 2009) will never be able to legally buy cigarettes. https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1709533739028492670 If these plans go ahead, 41 year olds will not be allowed to buy cigarettes in 2050 but 42 year olds will. To become law, the legislation will have to clear three hurdles: Pass the House of Commons (speculation is that this will be a free, unwhipped vote) Pass the House of Lords (free vote since this was not a manifesto pledge) Receive Royal Assent (this should be a formality) Will it pass all three hurdles before Parliament is dissolved for the next General Election? Note - If the legislation is modified or amended so that the permenant automatic ramping up isn't in place to take the smoking age up to at least 50 without further legislation (eg. the legislation only lasts for a few years and then needs further legislation or the automatic ratcheting up only goes up to 30 rather than 50+), this market will resolve to NO If you're wondering when the next General Election will be, take a look at this market: @/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd
2023-10-09T09:10:11
2024-05-31T06:58:15
2024-05-31T06:58:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jnok9w1yv0BhbH0awN6I
Will Russia conduct a nuclear test by the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-09T08:51:34
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T21:12:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-vC5vLty9Fi6xrQaA9BXe
Will Saudi Arabia sign an agreement to recognize Israel by end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-09T08:31:36
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-06T20:32:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-qcurG3MUWhAdHMsoMONE
Will the Chicago Bears maul the LA Chargers? 🏈 SNF
YES if Bears win. NO if Chargers win or tie.
2023-10-09T07:54:52
2023-10-29T20:36:28
2023-10-29T20:36:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-16347WO1Y0QTiBgQtP8b
Will the Miami Dolphins splash the Philadelphia Eagles? 🏈 SNF
YES if Dolphins win. NO if Eagles win or tie.
2023-10-09T07:53:36
2023-10-22T20:16:51
2023-10-22T20:16:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xazTTEXHRbSOv2NzpeHG
Will the New York Giants stomp the Buffalo Bills? 🏈 SNF
YES if Giants win. NO if Bills win or tie.
2023-10-09T07:51:17
2023-10-15T20:41:58
2023-10-15T20:41:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-grSHWKvuOMcYGKkZYrLn
Will the upcoming biopic movie “Napoleon” have a rotten tomatoes score higher than 90%?
Director Ridley Scott has a massive new biopic on Napoleon in theaters Noember 22 2023. Will it receive reviews higher than 90% on Rotten Tomatoes? Movie Trailer Here : https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RL8lQ0sr_Bk&vl=en Ridley Scott has directed movies such as Gladiator Black Hawk Down The Martian American Gangster Resolution Criteria: Will resolve as "YES" if on November 23rd 2023 at 11:59 PM EST Rotten Tomatoes tomatometer (critics score) reflects a score >90% Will resolve as "NO" if above criteria is not met at specified date
2023-10-09T07:13:49
2023-11-23T20:59:00
2023-11-24T23:35:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Sjne7uTMCAsKV5O2cgC6
Will OpenAI sanction porn on at least one of its models before 2025?
Open resolves YES if users can generate pornographic content on at least one of OpenAI's models, without violating OpenAI's terms of service. The model should be generally available to consumers. A model that was limited to researchers, or to security experts looking to red-team their censorship would not resolve as YES. Pornography can be in any medium. OpenAI can still put restrictions on the type of pornography generated, or the way in which it is used. Option will still resolve YES if users can still generate some types of pornography for the purposes of consumption. Could resolve YES with a new model, or a change in the TOS to an old model.
2023-10-09T04:22:37
2025-01-01T21:59:00
2025-01-01T23:28:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-v1Q1KzDjnAhUw90JQPuI
Will Ismail Haniyeh be alive at the end of 2024?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ismail_Haniyeh Ismail Haniyeh is the current head of Hamas. If reputable media sources report his death this market will resolve NO immediately, otherwise on January 1st 2025 this market resolves YES. In cases of ambiguity I reserve the right to resolve according to Wikipedia. Related: (https://manifold.markets/embed/zzq/will-yahya-sinwar-be-alive-at-the-e)
2023-10-09T02:28:10
2024-07-30T22:55:37
2024-07-30T22:55:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XZxd3G1IHPTYCsQIoJJH
Will Yahya Sinwar be alive at the end of 2024?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yahya_Sinwar Yahya Sinwar is the current leader of Hamas in the Gaza strip. If reputable media sources report his death this market will resolve NO immediately, otherwise on January 1st 2025 this market resolves YES. In cases of ambiguity I reserve the right to resolve according to Wikipedia. Related: (https://manifold.markets/embed/zzq/will-ismail-haniyeh-be-alive-at-the)
2023-10-09T02:25:58
2024-10-17T11:01:43
2024-10-17T11:01:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Fj1Qcl69tkVVwkDGrmOF
Will University of Georgia Football team Lose to University of Tennessee when they play on November 11, 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-09T02:21:51
2023-11-13T07:53:25
2023-11-13T07:53:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jIs7YyVc30s3F0537nH0
Will GitHub have any incident on October 10th 2023?
Will resolve to YES, if https://www.githubstatus.com/history will show ANY incident on 2023-10-10 between 0:00 and 23:59:59 UTC. Will resolve to NO otherwise. Resolution times: If YES, question will be resolved as soon as I notice any incident on the page for this timeframe. If NO, question will be resolved after end of day, if I am online. I took over in absence of @iblue
2023-10-09T02:05:54
2023-10-10T17:00:00
2023-10-10T17:32:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-s4PvPfyllragNwFEnJe1
Will Mrbeast reach 208 milion subscribers until 2024?
I will resolve this market YES if at any time until 2024 he reach 208 milion subscribers on youtube. Otherwise I will resolve this market NO. https://youtube.com/@MrBeast
2023-10-09T00:54:39
2023-11-08T05:21:56
2023-11-08T05:21:56
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-aHf4h4SyokKKWTcFYc8z
Will Erik ten Hag still be Manchester United’s coach at the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-08T23:53:36
2024-01-01T14:59:00
2024-01-01T18:37:55
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-T9zvSIvAUG7zyQHcV1xp
Israeli ground troops in the Gaza Strip before October 16th?
Resolves YES on reliable international media reports of Israeli ground troops present within the borders of the Gaza Strip before Monday, October 16th, 2023, local time in Israel.
2023-10-08T23:17:37
2023-10-13T15:05:25
2023-10-13T15:05:25
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-llB5DIrMe8p1FRIMWpLr
Will the current Israel-Hamas conflict reach a ceasefire by the end of 2023?
Resolves YES if an official ceasefire is reached before January 1st, 2024 and is not broken by either side for at least 48 hours. Resolves NO if no ceasefire is agreed upon or if the ceasefire is broken within the first 48 hours.
2023-10-08T23:03:00
2023-11-29T20:32:56
2023-11-29T20:32:56
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-P1dhLNu2ZwpqY5bYv4dq
US House floor vote for speaker before Oct. 15, 2023?
A house floor vote for the U.S. House of Representatives new speaker (following McCarthy's removal) must take place before October 15, 2023 (EDT) for this to resolve YES. Otherwise, this question will resolve NO.
2023-10-08T19:59:04
2023-10-15T02:18:37
2023-10-15T02:18:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-bZCoMr2o7oCwnflfTjUl
Will the Palestinian population of the Gaza Strip drop below 2,000,000 before 2025?
Currently at 2.3 million, according to Wikipedia.
2023-10-08T19:40:34
2025-01-01T23:59:00
2025-01-04T11:45:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-uw6e3WoB2eSMeAsrbrmK
Will Israel regain control of all territory by Oct 15?
Resolves the same as https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-regain-control-of-all-territory-by-oct-15 This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel regains control over all territories in which control was lost relative to Oct 5, 2023, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time by the resolution date, Oct 15, 2023, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. "Regaining control" is defined as Israel establishing political and military authority in the territories. The resolution will be based on credible reporting from international media outlets. This market will resolve immediately if Israel regains control over all its territories. [link preview]
2023-10-08T19:10:45
2023-10-09T10:55:00
2023-10-09T10:55:00
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Gdd1rDAP7y49UHGQaOn2
Will Hezbollah deploy ground forces in Israel by Oct 14?
Resolves the same as https://polymarket.com/event/will-hezbollah-deploy-ground-forces-in-israel-by-oct-14 This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially deploys ground forces in Israel in the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas on or before October 14, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Deployment is defined as Hezbollah sending troops to engage in combat against Israel. This market will resolve according to a consensus of credible sources. If no such deployment occurs by the resolution date, the market will resolve to "No". Note that the market may resolve before the expiry date if Hezbollah's deployment of ground forces in the war is confirmed prior to this date.
2023-10-08T19:08:15
2023-10-14T20:59:00
2023-10-15T17:38:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rvkBq8hjJAxlxPjF1rY4
Hamas still in power in Gaza through end of October?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas is still recognized as the primary governing authority in the Gaza Strip through Oct 31, 2023. "Primary governing authority" is defined as Hamas having predominant political and military control in the Gaza Strip. If at any time prior to the expiry date, Hamas is no longer recognized as the primary governing authority, the market will resolve to "No". In case of shared governance or significant disruptions, the group or authority with the majority of control will be considered the primary governing authority. This market will resolve according to credible reporting. Copied from https://polymarket.com/event/hamas-still-in-power-in-gaza-by-oct-31 but improved the wording (by -> through). This resolves the same as polymarket except in the specific case that the polymarket resolution does something dumb related to the bad wording which I changed, in which case I will ignore it. [link preview]
2023-10-08T19:05:48
2023-10-31T20:59:00
2023-11-01T03:35:31
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-y7oXwxSaOdsvYcFpgsxb
Will Biden be the Democratic nominee?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-08T19:02:10
2024-07-22T17:00:41
2024-07-22T17:00:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PEq7gZBlJ5dgnRpLJltK
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be alive by the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-08T17:52:01
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-07T18:29:02
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-CWA7VIubo70TWugQi5iU
Will Russia Detonate a Tactical Nuclear Weapon in Ukraine?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-08T17:14:22
2023-12-31T17:12:00
2024-01-01T08:09:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-bNd9Ur5qjDvOoTahS0GH
Will Logan Sargeant retire or crash out of the 2023 Formula 1 United States Grand Prix (COTA, Austin)?
Resolves NO if Logan Sargeant is still driving a car around the track when the winner crosses the finish line (or if Sargeant is the winner), including if he crashes after the winner crosses the finish line or on the cooldown lap. Resolves YES if Sargeant crashes in qualifying and cannot start the race, or crashes during the race and is forced to retire as a result, or is forced to retire the car during the race for any reason including for causes that you may not think are his fault. Resolves N/A if Sargeant has a clean qualifying but does not start the race, or does not take part in qualifying, or if the race does not take place for some reason. Any uncovered cases will be resolved using my best judgment and the spirit of the question.
2023-10-08T15:40:52
2023-10-22T13:40:44
2023-10-22T13:40:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Z5oDmKzfMw5LyIk4tVoe
[2023 Formula 1 Season] Will both Red Bull drivers finish in the Top 5 in the US Sprint Race?
[United States Grand Prix / Austin / COTA] Resolves YES if both Red Bull cars (regardless of driver, Verstappen, Perez, or reserve) finish in the Top 5 at the US Sprint Race. Resolves N/A if only one car is able to race (regardless of which driver) for whatever reason.
2023-10-08T14:14:36
2023-10-21T15:36:57
2023-10-21T15:36:57
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-lmHjWh1z8Hb2rmmatfIS
England will defeat Fiji in their quarterfinal match at Rugby World Cup 2023
Resolves YES if England defeat Fiji in their quarterfinal match at Rugby World Cup 2023. Otherwise resolves NO
2023-10-08T13:59:46
2023-10-15T09:53:02
2023-10-15T09:53:02
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-gO5XsZtSvDwmEDCsDlcW
Will there be a new ongoing major war (10,000+ deaths) listed by Wikipedia by the 4th of July, 2024?
If an ongoing major war with a "start of conflict" in 2023 or 2024 is added to the Wikipedia List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts after this market is created and before market close, resolves yes. The war in Sudan is already on the list as of market creation, and so does not count for this market. [image]Any Wikipedia vandalism will be disregarded. The new ongoing war can be one of the ongoing conflicts with <10,000 deaths as of market creation, if it is promoted to a proper war (and has a start of conflict in 2023 or 2024).
2023-10-08T13:36:31
2024-07-03T23:59:00
2024-07-12T21:26:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-lcxzO5Z6vqZIYguez6Md
Will there be a new ongoing war (1000+ deaths) listed by Wikipedia by the 4th of July, 2024?
If an ongoing war or major war with a "start of conflict" in 2023 or 2024 is added to the Wikipedia List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts after this market is created and before this market close, resolves yes. [image]Any Wikipedia vandalism will be disregarded. The new ongoing war can be one of the ongoing conflicts with <1000 deaths as of market creation, if it is promoted to a proper war and has a "start of conflict" in 2023 or 2024. Note that this does not count the war in Sudan, which was already on the Major War listed before this market was created.
2023-10-08T13:34:06
2024-07-03T23:59:00
2024-07-12T21:26:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-f512wckJBZkk16nogz0u
Israel and Saudi Arabia will normalise relations before 2025
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-08T13:12:19
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2025-01-01T15:33:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-n3arR1ooQvcJJMZlfV6k
Will the UK ban smoking for future generations before the end of 2024?
In Dec 2022, New Zealand banned the sale of tobacco products to anyone born after 1 Jan 2009. On Oct 4, Rishi Sunak's government proposed banning younger generations from buying cigarettes by raising the smoking age by one year every year. This question resolves YES if legislation effecting a general restriction on smoking (e.g. ban on selling cigarettes) on the basis of a person's generation receives royal assent in the United Kingdom before the end of 2024. Raising the smoking age one year every year would count as a YES. Banning the sale of tobacco products to people born after a specified date would count as a YES. See also: (https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-the-uk-ban-smoking-for-future-88UzdZ058d?play=true)
2023-10-08T12:18:47
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-01T00:13:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-cCqpRjIfNdWCZ4ZTE2JV
Will Iran declare that they are a nuclear power by the end of 2024?
Official declaration of nuclear weapons capability. Nuclear power generation isn't relevant to this question.
2023-10-08T12:17:28
2025-01-01T21:59:00
2025-01-02T04:49:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-LYGM4CeBtf0ZoBJlhoZF
Will Yuki Tsunoda finish in the points at the US Grand Prix 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-08T12:00:04
2023-10-22T13:50:23
2023-10-22T13:50:27
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-TWNhKQl9wkshCPEZ7Qc2
Will Lewis Hamilton place on the podium at the US Grand Prix 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-08T11:56:05
2023-10-22T13:42:31
2023-10-22T13:42:36
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-DgWgwle14lV60MFufW3K
Will Lando Norris place on the podium at the US Grand Prix 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-08T11:55:39
2023-10-22T13:43:26
2023-10-22T13:43:30
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-iZOBgFRHmRM5WZYMjK6i
Will Max Verstappen win the US Grand Prix 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-08T11:54:38
2023-10-22T13:47:33
2023-10-22T13:48:20
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-kBkQtbzDNQDBnqeX969J
Will SBF use neurodivergence as a defence at trial?
This will resolve to YES if Sam Bankman-Fried or his defence team claim that he is neurodivergent (eg autistic, ADHD) and use this as a defence of his actions at trial. This needs to be more than simply noting or claiming that he is neurodivergent - it needs to be a specific part of his defence. For instance: "I see things differently to other people" or "I have trouble focusing on one thing at a time" would not qualify "I was unable to appreciate the risks due to my autism" or "I was on a lot of meds for my ADHD, which is why this all went wrong" would qualify The resolution does not depend on any mental health or neurodivergent diagnosis for SBF, only whether it is used as part of the defence. This will resolve at the end of the trial
2023-10-08T11:48:58
2023-11-03T00:38:40
2023-11-03T00:38:40
no
MANIFOLD
mani-G7d67FUH2jNRbzziH3c0
Did Netanyahu know about the Hamas attack before it commenced?
Will there be conclusive evidence that Netanyahu knew about the Hamas attack before it commenced? By conclusive evidence I mean testimony from at least 2 people or a government memo which demonstrate that Netanyahu knew about a large (100+ person) attack from Gaza before 12:00 AM on October 7, the day the attack began. Netanyahu should have known that the attack was planned to occur in September or October of 2023. If there is no such evidence that emerges, resolves NO on January 1, 2025.
2023-10-08T11:48:16
2025-01-01T20:59:00
2025-01-07T17:50:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-UJWUyl5jADAi4ICV3TFd
Will emergency US financial aid for Israel be announced by the end of next week?
This market resolves to YES if any US government source/agency officially announces extra financial aid to Israel in the wake of recent events, by next Sunday. The market resolves to NO if no previously unplanned financial aid packages are announced for Israel. Military aid will not count as financial aid.
2023-10-08T11:47:16
2023-10-15T20:59:00
2023-10-16T05:29:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-OYZoVq0jONoTsJxNFvzl
Will Vladimir Putin win Russia's 2024 presidential election with 70% or more of the vote?
Russia is set to hold a presidential election on 17 March 2024. According to Wikipedia, Vladimir Putin's share of the vote in previous elections were as follows: 2018: 77.53% 2012: 64.35% 2008: N/A (Putin was Vice President; his ally, Dmitry Medvedev ran for President; Medvedev received 71.25% of the vote) 2004: 71.91% 2000: 53.44% Will Putin's share of the vote in the 2024 election be 70% or more, as recorded on Wikipedia's election page? In the unlikely event of a second round of voting, the second round's percentage will be used.' Related question: (https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-vladimir-putin-win-russias-202-54159d9de26d)
2023-10-08T11:10:36
2024-03-18T08:51:04
2024-03-18T08:51:04
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-vBfi3Y9aDZSkBZwaBgJh
Wales will defeat Argentina in their quarterfinal match at Rugby World Cup 2023
Resolves YES if Wales defeat Argentina in their quarterfinal match at Rugby World Cup 2023. Otherwise resolves NO
2023-10-08T10:32:38
2023-10-14T09:57:55
2023-10-14T09:57:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-UVYgordtl5tJ2agVnhtT
Will a new Speaker of the House be elected by the end of October 14, 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-08T10:30:13
2023-10-14T22:52:43
2023-10-14T22:52:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-iXtRW87enPJmg9acBy1g
Will $SPY close above $440.00 on December 29th, 2023?
Will $SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) close above $440.00 per share at close of trading on Friday, December 29th, 2023? 4:00pm EST on Friday, December 29th, 2023. Yes: $440.00 & higher No: $439.99 or lower
2023-10-08T09:32:10
2023-12-29T13:36:38
2023-12-29T13:36:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-C42PPnyvsLrn1aW9FTmk
Will Joe Biden be the 2024 Democratic party nominee for President?
Will Joe Biden be the 2024 Democratic Party Nominee for President? Summary Based on the web research, it is likely that Joe Biden will be the Democratic party's nominee for the 2024 presidential election. Most of the available sources confirm his intention and ongoing preparations to run for a second term. However, the final outcome also depends on factors like approval ratings and possible intra-party competition, which are subject to change. Some Background From The Web Will Joe Biden be the 2024 Democratic party nominee for President? Reuters Article The Hill Article Does Joe Biden have plans to run for president in 2024? NPR Article NBC News Article What is the historical trend for incumbent presidents seeking re-election in the USA? Gallup News Article American Presidency Project Article
2023-10-08T09:25:34
2024-07-21T14:37:27
2024-07-21T14:37:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-iXZiXhPbVPiBAIZj819s
Will OpenAI be forced to license some portion of the copyrighted works used as training data?
OpenAI has taken the position that training an large language model (LLM) on copyrighted works falls within the "fair use" doctrine. Those who own the copyrights on these works disagree and several court cases are in progress. This question will resolve to "yes" if any US jurisdiction rules against OpenAI, requiring them to license some amount of their training data. It will also resolve to "yes" if OpenAI reaches an agreement, of their own accord, wherein they agree to pay for some amount of their training data. An out-of-court settlement with an intellectual property owner is a precedent of a sort but is clearly stretching the meaning of "licensing", it will not count as a "yes".
2023-10-08T09:25:18
2023-12-13T16:08:15
2023-12-13T16:08:15
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-IkY5a2KLE1LfwQQ5YKId
Will any Country Leave the EU Before 2025?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-08T09:09:57
2025-01-01T11:04:53
2025-01-01T11:04:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PFf0ZJqsGcKKdZDKcHAA
Will the USA give any foreign aid to Afghanistan following the earthquake?
If the US government announces the donation of any amount of aid to Afghanistan in the next week (closing 00.00 BST 15th October) this market will resolve yes. If not it will resolve no.
2023-10-08T09:04:27
2023-10-14T04:48:00
2023-10-14T04:48:00
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-JV41HVPJfrwHfSNsNgAz
ETH price above $1600 by end of October?
If the 1 minute wick at 11.59 BST 30th October (2023) closes above $1600 on the spot ETH/USDT market on Binance this market will resolve yes. If not, this market will resolve no. If USDT depegs the next best stablecoin spot pair will be used.
2023-10-08T08:47:15
2023-10-31T23:58:37
2023-10-31T23:58:37
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-22TseJcx4HC3E6FnMimR
Will Tesla deliver its first Cybertruck before 11/30/2023
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-08T08:20:47
2023-11-29T22:30:06
2023-11-29T22:30:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gO7a5r4asXvWyLqNLInH
[Metaculus] Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?
Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024? Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus. Resolution criteria The question resolves Yes if at any point between Oct 7, 2023 and Dec 31, 2023, the consensus of credible reports is that Hamas no longer has de facto control of the majority of the Gaza Strip. It resolves No in all other cases, including if the consensus of credible reports is that control of Gaza is disputed, or if there is no consensus of credible reports. This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation.
2023-10-08T08:13:40
2024-01-02T11:00:00
2024-01-03T14:11:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-0T0ZDVhkD7R4PK66Vxtj
Will Nikki Haley pass Ron Desantis in any national poll by January 1 2024
Any national poll by nonpartisan polling firm currently polling the Republican primary. Resolves to yes if Haley has any numerical proportion greater than Desantis to .1 percent precision No if Haley is tied or Desantis leads Resolved YES: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2023-national-poll-trump-making-inroads-with-young-voters-against-biden-maintains-majority-support-in-republican-primary/
2023-10-08T07:33:08
2023-10-20T11:55:56
2023-10-20T11:55:56
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-PzBki2fpNAruf0XHf9Fk
Will Nikki Haley pass Ron Desantis in any national poll by November 1 2023
Any national poll by nonpartisan polling firm currently polling the Republican primary. Resolves to yes if Haley has any numerical proportion greater than Desantis to .1 percent precision No if Haley is tied or Desantis leads
2023-10-08T07:32:06
2023-10-20T11:55:08
2023-10-20T11:55:08
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-XVlMdcf5tEL8PrhfJT6G
Will Nikki Haley pass Ron Desantis in any national poll by December 1st 2023?
Any national poll by nonpartisan polling firm currently polling the Republican primary
2023-10-08T06:46:47
2023-10-20T11:56:18
2023-10-20T11:56:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-xWal19JbYfZWDlg1kInY
Will the current Israel-Palastine conflict remain confined to Israel?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-08T06:28:29
2024-01-27T06:55:49
2024-01-27T06:55:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-TnItTkAAZbTDxDoPnGvV
Will Biden physically fall down in public on camera again between October 8, 2023 and November 6, 2024?
Biden has physically fallen in public on several occasions in front of press cameras rolling. Will it happen again before the next presidential election?
2023-10-08T06:05:08
2024-11-06T05:56:00
2024-11-20T13:11:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ZyMYTlFFiFB1Un4doalr
Will TSLA hit an all time high (414.50) sometime before end 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-08T03:58:59
2024-12-11T09:44:14
2024-12-11T09:44:14
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Kb7cEsJRmCOQsRBGZz1S
Will Hezbollah invade Israel from Lebanon in October?
Following the recent attacks from the Gaza strip, it's been reported that the IDF is preparing for a Hezbollah invasion from the north.
2023-10-08T01:42:36
2023-10-31T14:59:00
2023-10-31T15:07:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PfDN3FgWbrX2fri4rXiw
Will Hans Niemann finish top 3 at the US Chess Championship 2023?
Resolves yes if Hans places third or better at the end of the tournament. Resolves no if he gets disqualified before the end of the tournament or places below the top 3. Resolves N/A if the tournament doesn't finish. If there's a tie in the final round he's treated as though he's the highest placement, this market doesn't bother with tiebreakers it simply gives the benefit of the doubt. Hans wins market for true believers Results used for resolution will be the standings as they're shown in the official recaps: https://www.uschesschamps.com/recaps
2023-10-07T22:31:10
2023-10-17T16:59:30
2023-10-17T16:59:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-r3eAOkv29vwYDE2qjLYz
Will either party hold a trifecta after the 2024 election?
This resolves YES if the same party wins control of the Presidency, the House, and the Senate in the 2024 election. Resolves NO if at least one of these is controlled by a different party. If either the House or the Senate does not have a party with an outright majority, the party of the Speaker (House) or Majority Leader (Senate) will be considered to have control.
2023-10-07T21:40:33
2024-11-13T20:12:04
2024-11-13T20:12:04
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-8Mhdxa0oMOnSEI5HjkLb
Will Republicans control the House after the 2024 election?
Resolves YES if Republicans win a majority of seats in the 2024 election -or- if no party wins a majority and the first elected Speaker of 2025 is a Republican. Resolves NO otherwise.
2023-10-07T21:32:37
2024-11-13T20:11:40
2024-11-13T20:11:40
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-b7WnF32ZxSOayfrPhLyr
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in Gaza before 2024?
Includes test. Resolves based on credible reporting.
2023-10-07T18:02:19
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T00:12:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-bJ2D1UIj0IGtnHIaKRNz
Will Israel strike targets inside Iran in October?
Either publicly acknowledged or "nudge and a wink" well understood. Local time. Fuzzy, so I won't bet.
2023-10-07T16:55:06
2023-11-01T18:50:08
2023-11-01T18:50:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf
Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?
"Direct combat operations" means a sustained combat effort; special operations don't count. Will resolve at end of current conflict, or extend if conflict doesn't end by time of closure. Will resolve if confirmed by reliable media source (Reuters, BBC, the AP, etc.)
2023-10-07T13:18:59
2024-10-03T10:30:59
2024-10-03T10:30:59
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-FMboOMmLqOcxRGwfk5xS
Will Destiny win the debate with Ben Shapiro? [According to Manifold]
Destiny and Ben Shapiro have had a debate, which you can watch here After watching the debate, you can rate the performance of Destiny and Shapiro in these two polls: @/Joshua/how-do-you-rate-destinys-performanc @/Joshua/how-do-you-rate-ben-shapiros-perfor These polls, and this market, will close in two days. If Destiny's debate performance has a higher average rating than Shapiro's when the polls close, this market will resolve YES. Otherwise, this market will resolve NO.
2023-10-07T13:08:16
2024-01-25T23:59:00
2024-01-26T12:36:30
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Ifu8nU2hjPPmptfF86GK
Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?
This question will resolve as Yes if, on January 1, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War's map shows the Velikiy Tokmak railway station in Tokmak (47.234273433498416, 35.71907485774982) as not under either "assessed Russian advance" or "assessed Russian control". Notably, the railway station is on the southern end of the town. If the ISW ceases to publish this information or changes the naming conventions for the assessed territory, then Metaculus will decide according to information provided by ISW or other credible sources. If, at the time of resolution, the Velikiy Tokmak railway station no longer stands at its current location or is fully destroyed, then this question will be resolved based on control of the area where the building was located on the 21st of February 2022, the latest Google Earth image of the station available at the time of writing.. Resolves the same as https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19104/will-ukraine-control-tokmak-on-jan-1-2024/
2023-10-07T09:13:35
2024-01-01T20:59:00
2024-01-01T21:08:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-I6aRgH4w7NO20BeysqqI
Will any other nations join the Hamas-Israel war on the side of Hamas by 2024?
Update Nov 2: To repeat certain things I have said around the comment section: "International recognition" is not a requirement, only that the group hold significant amounts of territory and do normal government things like pass laws. International recognition is a political process that doesn't exactly grind reality at its gears. I'm ruling on this basis that the Houthi barely count as a state, Hezbollah barely doesn't. "Declaring" war on social media is neither necessary nor sufficient to resolve this market YES. In order to count as "joining", the conflict has to escalate to a hot war involving significant loss of life or territory. Sending a bunch of missiles or accomplishing a suicide bombing does not count, and neither does providing financial support or weapons to the participants. If a party involved barely counts as a state that means the requirements for e.g. a hot war are raised and vice versa. In general I am trying to resolve in the way a person would, if asked the question in 2025. Do not ship of theseus this.
2023-10-07T09:11:27
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T08:26:53
no
MANIFOLD