id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-KwiELp1gJuHEZ7zjdnzx | Will Taylor Swift’s ERAS Tour Movie make over 100 million at the US box office its opening weekend? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-10T04:13:05 | 2023-10-16T15:06:50 | 2023-10-16T15:06:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LTw9rrM4mZYbrAYnSoRj | Will the Knicks make the eastern conference finals? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-10T03:36:10 | 2024-05-19T16:21:06 | 2024-05-19T16:21:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-V5kcRq0Nm2mitzboZp2A | Will Hou Yu-ih and Ko Wen-je run for Taiwan president together in 2024? | That means one of them will file the president while the other one as the vice president(both cases count) before the deadline(Nov/24/2023).
Ref: https://web.cec.gov.tw/ | 2023-10-10T03:08:44 | 2023-11-24T08:33:51 | 2023-11-24T08:33:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VGQFAXPg2AAv1Si2Muy1 | Will US 10YR Treasury yields reach 5%? | Will US 10YR reach 5% In a month's time, around Nov. 10th. | 2023-10-10T01:08:30 | 2023-10-26T11:04:35 | 2023-10-26T11:04:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-C0sC6QZAbNkYw3K07JjU | Will Australia make the list to participate in Eurovision 2024? | Australia was granted participation in the contest until 2023, the past edition, but it's not in the provisional list of participating countries for Eurovision 2024.
The European Broadcasting Union is expected to release the official list of participating countries by the end of October. If Australia is in the list, ... | 2023-10-09T23:16:46 | 2023-12-06T08:54:58 | 2023-12-06T08:54:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-w5HWpumG8wlapMUaDorW | Will the San Francisco 49ers win the Superbowl in 2024? | 49ers are 5-0 and looking great. Will they win the big one this year? | 2023-10-09T22:37:22 | 2024-02-11T20:00:00 | 2024-02-12T08:33:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ce32BVzdVfXitomBzs7e | Will xAI build a LLM as powerful as GPT-3.5? | This market will resolve YES if, by the end of June 2024, Elon Musk's xAI announces that they have a language model at least as powerful as GPT-3.5 or Claude.
By default, I will use the Arena Elo rating to decide whether a model meets the bar. If there is no such rating, I will use other benchmarks (e.g., MMLU) or my ... | 2023-10-09T20:54:12 | 2024-05-19T12:23:57 | 2024-05-19T12:23:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hx98AcZizFQbwEawN0kH | Will US viewership
for Superbowl LVIII on Feb 11, 2024 in Vegas exceed
US viewership of the Apollo 11 moon landing? | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_watched_television_broadcasts_in_the_United_States
US viewership must exceed 137.5 million average viewers to be considered higher than the Apollo 11 moon landing. | 2023-10-09T18:54:21 | 2024-02-12T23:32:24 | 2024-02-12T23:32:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Wuae37tRNQFtRFzO9FoM | Will Trump do jail time in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-09T18:12:39 | 2024-11-09T04:59:00 | 2024-11-09T11:59:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AGeWthWyrSZfR0prIenZ | Will Ohio pass both reproductive rights and legalization of marijuana amendments in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-09T17:59:17 | 2023-11-07T19:44:45 | 2023-11-07T19:44:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-P6lIP3Dzb9pdbFQ3GbZA | Will the US spend more for Ukraine in 2023? | This is a market on whether the US government will pass another bill that includes military funding for Ukraine in 2023. A consensus of credible reporting will be used. | 2023-10-09T16:55:37 | 2024-01-08T08:24:52 | 2024-01-08T08:24:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-y7gVNSkHZlwpM7eeyr8I | Will China invade Taiwan in the next 3 months | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-09T16:38:41 | 2024-01-09T16:38:00 | 2024-01-10T07:51:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-blMwVltCTWo9edUPLu4a | Will Brent Crude price go above $95 before 30th November 2023? | As the Israel-Hamas conflict intensifies, there could be impacts on Brent Crude prices. Although there aren't direct influences in supply and demand, the geopolitical risks may be a factor for traders. | 2023-10-09T15:54:18 | 2023-11-30T05:26:26 | 2023-11-30T05:26:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VqcK714P3rPxwwgAa2qS | Will Russia conduct a nuclear test before December 31 2023? | Recent news reporting indicates that multiple countries are considering conducting a nuclear test. Activity has been observed on satellite imagery at the nuclear test sites for Russia, China, and the USA. The question is specific to Russia, will they conduct a nuclear test? | 2023-10-09T15:46:44 | 2023-12-31T11:17:53 | 2023-12-31T11:17:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fOvfuTF03f4b9GKQVocg | Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before March 10 2024? | Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, beforeMar 10 2024, credible sources report that Yahya Sinwar has either stepped down or been replaced as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip, been captured by Israel, or that he has died. The question will resolve as No if he continuously holds his position or if the... | 2023-10-09T15:40:39 | 2024-03-11T21:59:00 | 2024-03-14T03:22:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GNRnCf0pNbqorhe9JdAH | Will a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 10,000 deaths before 2025? | This question will resolve as Yes if, for the years 2023 and 2024 combined, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) reports 10,000 or more state-based conflict deaths for the Iran-Israel conflict (specifically, the category "state-based violence"). The 10,000 deaths need not occur in a single year. We will defer to UC... | 2023-10-09T15:36:32 | 2025-01-01T20:59:00 | 2025-01-05T21:39:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IXPA4v7waElX2BUZ6TzF | Will a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025? | This question will resolve as Yes if, for the years 2023 and 2024 combined, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) reports 1,000 or more state-based conflict deaths for the Iran-Israel conflict (specifically, the category "state-based violence"). The 1,000 deaths need not occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP... | 2023-10-09T15:35:05 | 2025-01-01T20:59:00 | 2025-01-05T21:39:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pX9HWElu1wWNmnkL6NjW | Will another nation declare war in the Israel-Hamas conflict by July 15th 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if another sovereign nation officially declares war on either Israel or Hamas by July 15 2024, ET. Declarations of war must be clear, explicit, and from a sovereign nation. The market will resolve to "No" if no such official declaration of war is made by the specified date. Note that I... | 2023-10-09T15:28:47 | 2024-07-16T21:59:00 | 2024-07-17T09:01:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FsaZWdy6oL6gRZJe8RGJ | Will Hamas continuously be in power in Gaza until Jan 15th 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas is still recognized as the primary governing authority in the Gaza Strip by Jan 15, 2024. "Primary governing authority" is defined as Hamas having predominant political and military control in the Gaza Strip. If at any time prior to the expiry date, Hamas is no longer recogniz... | 2023-10-09T15:25:09 | 2024-01-15T20:59:00 | 2024-01-17T05:21:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WQbIT7Qgpx7Kb2tKrkig | Will Hamas continuously be in power in Gaza until Dec 15th? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas is still recognized as the primary governing authority in the Gaza Strip by Dec 15, 2023. "Primary governing authority" is defined as Hamas having predominant political and military control in the Gaza Strip. If at any time prior to the expiry date, Hamas is no longer recogniz... | 2023-10-09T15:24:47 | 2023-12-15T20:59:00 | 2023-12-15T21:08:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Op6ZXQBBAyBnCzFk3zlW | Will Hamas continuously be in power in Gaza until Nov 15th? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas is still recognized as the primary governing authority in the Gaza Strip byNov 15, 2023. "Primary governing authority" is defined as Hamas having predominant political and military control in the Gaza Strip. If at any time prior to the expiry date, Hamas is no longer recognize... | 2023-10-09T15:24:16 | 2023-11-15T20:59:00 | 2023-11-16T05:36:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CI3cDWRWXO6VlWjQL4Fs | Will Hezbollah deploy ground forces in Israel by Dec 10? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially deploys ground forces in Israel in the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas on or before December 10, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Deployment is defined as Hezbollah sending troops to engage in combat against Israel. This market will resolve according to a consensus of cr... | 2023-10-09T15:22:23 | 2023-12-11T05:19:14 | 2023-12-11T05:19:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bQRzwXsmh02IzvcgOIR7 | Will Hezbollah deploy ground forces in Israel by Nov 10? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially deploys ground forces in Israel in the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas on or before November 10, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Deployment is defined as Hezbollah sending troops to engage in combat against Israel. This market will resolve according to a consensus of cr... | 2023-10-09T15:21:55 | 2023-11-11T20:59:00 | 2023-11-12T05:42:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZQWOP6WegvC0Cp49WBLu | Will Hezbollah deploy ground forces in Israel by Oct 20? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially deploys ground forces in Israel in the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas on or before October 20, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Deployment is defined as Hezbollah sending troops to engage in combat against Israel. This market will resolve according to a consensus of cre... | 2023-10-09T15:20:26 | 2023-10-21T21:59:00 | 2023-10-21T22:24:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PJFpAYgV1hkEnAEZVgyI | Will Trump win the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Will Trump win the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | 2023-10-09T15:05:45 | 2024-01-15T19:22:31 | 2024-01-15T19:22:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tcM1mIskAuRg57pM1dRC | Will Taylor Swift or Travis Kelce publicly confirm they have broken up by end of 2023? | The market will resolve to YES if either Taylor Swift or Travis Kelce publicly confirms their breakup through any publicly accessible medium including but not limited to social media posts, official statements, interviews, or reputable news outlets before December 31, 2023. Indirect confirmations such as statements fro... | 2023-10-09T14:36:42 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T06:33:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-scztvZtT7grJT7iaiRQC | Will there be a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas by Oct 31? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas on or before Oct 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, o... | 2023-10-09T13:51:31 | 2023-11-01T19:53:50 | 2023-11-01T19:53:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wrwB5nnr8dTjxanUZmZo | Will there be a well-reported death/hospitalization associated with Puracy's pop-top aluminum cans in 2023/2024 | This can of household cleaner sure looks like a soft drink container. https://puracy.com/products/clean-can?variant=39635724173408 | 2023-10-09T13:49:01 | 2025-01-01T09:51:03 | 2025-01-01T21:22:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aRqrewwid6sF6NrM5bGs | Will the S&P 500 close higher on October 10 than it closed on October 9? | Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of October (inspired by Alex B. Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.... | 2023-10-09T13:28:00 | 2023-10-10T11:00:00 | 2023-10-10T13:17:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-o9Nm2o4VBQXL5Tvy62s8 | Will RFK Jr. get more than 5% of the popular vote in the Nov 2024 US Election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-09T12:06:41 | 2024-11-06T20:59:00 | 2024-11-06T21:13:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uxXhuK3wgiJ2kwYYeJR9 | Will OpenAI announce that they will stop using freely crawled data for training large language models, by April 9 2024? | Kyunghyun Cho predicts: "OpenAI will announce within 6 months that they are from there on exclusively using sourced (and often paid for data) and stop using freely crawled data for their large language models."
https://twitter.com/kchonyc/status/1711182191751729238
| 2023-10-09T12:06:27 | 2024-04-09T23:59:00 | 2024-04-10T22:03:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-d2JJvGrlxolRJMbihZCR | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a crime before the 2024 election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-09T11:47:17 | 2024-05-31T00:27:03 | 2024-05-31T00:27:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-s1lMpbjTxAGio3xTJEjV | Will Vladimir Putin win Russia's 2024 presidential election with 80% or more of the vote? | Russia is set to hold a presidential election on 17 March 2024. According to Wikipedia, Vladimir Putin's share of the vote in previous elections were as follows:
2018: 77.53%
2012: 64.35%
2008: N/A (Putin was Vice President; his ally, Dmitry Medvedev ran for President; Medvedev received 71.25% of the vote)
2004: 71... | 2023-10-09T10:00:48 | 2024-03-18T08:51:29 | 2024-03-18T08:51:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DD6mevSi5Wkc9L5zSEDi | Did the head of Egyptian intelligence warn Netanyahu about a "fierce" operation about to take place around Gaza? | Ynet reports that the head of Egyptian intelligence, Abbas Kamel, warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that "something fierce will happen from Gaza" ten days ago. Reportedly, "Netanyahu seemed unbothered, said the IDF is 'swamped' in dealing with terror from the West Bank."
Netanyahu's office has denied th... | 2023-10-09T09:59:01 | 2024-12-31T12:59:00 | 2024-12-31T14:00:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wluc4fM8Bc1oGwhq0q5m | Will a "lifetime smoking ban" become law in the UK before the next General Election? | Rishi Sunak has announced that he will be putting forward legislation for a "lifetime smoking ban". This would mean that the age for buying cigarettes will rise by one year every year and that anyone born after a cutoff date (possibly 1st January 2009) will never be able to legally buy cigarettes.
https://twitter.com/... | 2023-10-09T09:10:11 | 2024-05-31T06:58:15 | 2024-05-31T06:58:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jnok9w1yv0BhbH0awN6I | Will Russia conduct a nuclear test by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-09T08:51:34 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T21:12:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vC5vLty9Fi6xrQaA9BXe | Will Saudi Arabia sign an agreement to recognize Israel by end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-09T08:31:36 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-06T20:32:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qcurG3MUWhAdHMsoMONE | Will the Chicago Bears maul the LA Chargers? 🏈 SNF | YES if Bears win. NO if Chargers win or tie. | 2023-10-09T07:54:52 | 2023-10-29T20:36:28 | 2023-10-29T20:36:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-16347WO1Y0QTiBgQtP8b | Will the Miami Dolphins splash the Philadelphia Eagles? 🏈 SNF | YES if Dolphins win. NO if Eagles win or tie. | 2023-10-09T07:53:36 | 2023-10-22T20:16:51 | 2023-10-22T20:16:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xazTTEXHRbSOv2NzpeHG | Will the New York Giants stomp the Buffalo Bills? 🏈 SNF | YES if Giants win. NO if Bills win or tie. | 2023-10-09T07:51:17 | 2023-10-15T20:41:58 | 2023-10-15T20:41:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-grSHWKvuOMcYGKkZYrLn | Will the upcoming biopic movie “Napoleon” have a rotten tomatoes score higher than 90%? | Director Ridley Scott has a massive new biopic on Napoleon in theaters Noember 22 2023. Will it receive reviews higher than 90% on Rotten Tomatoes?
Movie Trailer Here : https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RL8lQ0sr_Bk&vl=en
Ridley Scott has directed movies such as
Gladiator
Black Hawk Down
The Martian
American Gangste... | 2023-10-09T07:13:49 | 2023-11-23T20:59:00 | 2023-11-24T23:35:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Sjne7uTMCAsKV5O2cgC6 | Will OpenAI sanction porn on at least one of its models before 2025? | Open resolves YES if users can generate pornographic content on at least one of OpenAI's models, without violating OpenAI's terms of service.
The model should be generally available to consumers. A model that was limited to researchers, or to security experts looking to red-team their censorship would not resolve as Y... | 2023-10-09T04:22:37 | 2025-01-01T21:59:00 | 2025-01-01T23:28:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-v1Q1KzDjnAhUw90JQPuI | Will Ismail Haniyeh be alive at the end of 2024? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ismail_Haniyeh
Ismail Haniyeh is the current head of Hamas. If reputable media sources report his death this market will resolve NO immediately, otherwise on January 1st 2025 this market resolves YES. In cases of ambiguity I reserve the right to resolve according to Wikipedia.
Related:
... | 2023-10-09T02:28:10 | 2024-07-30T22:55:37 | 2024-07-30T22:55:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XZxd3G1IHPTYCsQIoJJH | Will Yahya Sinwar be alive at the end of 2024? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yahya_Sinwar
Yahya Sinwar is the current leader of Hamas in the Gaza strip. If reputable media sources report his death this market will resolve NO immediately, otherwise on January 1st 2025 this market resolves YES. In cases of ambiguity I reserve the right to resolve according to Wikipe... | 2023-10-09T02:25:58 | 2024-10-17T11:01:43 | 2024-10-17T11:01:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Fj1Qcl69tkVVwkDGrmOF | Will University of Georgia Football team Lose to University of Tennessee when they play on November 11, 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-09T02:21:51 | 2023-11-13T07:53:25 | 2023-11-13T07:53:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jIs7YyVc30s3F0537nH0 | Will GitHub have any incident on October 10th 2023? | Will resolve to YES, if https://www.githubstatus.com/history will show ANY incident on 2023-10-10 between 0:00 and 23:59:59 UTC.
Will resolve to NO otherwise.
Resolution times:
If YES, question will be resolved as soon as I notice any incident on the page for this timeframe.
If NO, question will be resolved after e... | 2023-10-09T02:05:54 | 2023-10-10T17:00:00 | 2023-10-10T17:32:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-s4PvPfyllragNwFEnJe1 | Will Mrbeast reach 208 milion subscribers until 2024? | I will resolve this market YES if at any time until 2024 he reach 208 milion subscribers on youtube.
Otherwise I will resolve this market NO.
https://youtube.com/@MrBeast | 2023-10-09T00:54:39 | 2023-11-08T05:21:56 | 2023-11-08T05:21:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-aHf4h4SyokKKWTcFYc8z | Will Erik ten Hag still be Manchester United’s coach at the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-08T23:53:36 | 2024-01-01T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T18:37:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-T9zvSIvAUG7zyQHcV1xp | Israeli ground troops in the Gaza Strip before October 16th? | Resolves YES on reliable international media reports of Israeli ground troops present within the borders of the Gaza Strip before Monday, October 16th, 2023, local time in Israel.
| 2023-10-08T23:17:37 | 2023-10-13T15:05:25 | 2023-10-13T15:05:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-llB5DIrMe8p1FRIMWpLr | Will the current Israel-Hamas conflict reach a ceasefire by the end of 2023? | Resolves YES if an official ceasefire is reached before January 1st, 2024 and is not broken by either side for at least 48 hours.
Resolves NO if no ceasefire is agreed upon or if the ceasefire is broken within the first 48 hours. | 2023-10-08T23:03:00 | 2023-11-29T20:32:56 | 2023-11-29T20:32:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-P1dhLNu2ZwpqY5bYv4dq | US House floor vote for speaker before Oct. 15, 2023? | A house floor vote for the U.S. House of Representatives new speaker (following McCarthy's removal) must take place before October 15, 2023 (EDT) for this to resolve YES. Otherwise, this question will resolve NO. | 2023-10-08T19:59:04 | 2023-10-15T02:18:37 | 2023-10-15T02:18:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bZCoMr2o7oCwnflfTjUl | Will the Palestinian population of the Gaza Strip drop below 2,000,000 before 2025? | Currently at 2.3 million, according to Wikipedia. | 2023-10-08T19:40:34 | 2025-01-01T23:59:00 | 2025-01-04T11:45:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uw6e3WoB2eSMeAsrbrmK | Will Israel regain control of all territory by Oct 15? | Resolves the same as https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-regain-control-of-all-territory-by-oct-15
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel regains control over all territories in which control was lost relative to Oct 5, 2023, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time by the resolution date, Oct 15, 2023, 11:59 PM Israel... | 2023-10-08T19:10:45 | 2023-10-09T10:55:00 | 2023-10-09T10:55:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Gdd1rDAP7y49UHGQaOn2 | Will Hezbollah deploy ground forces in Israel by Oct 14? | Resolves the same as https://polymarket.com/event/will-hezbollah-deploy-ground-forces-in-israel-by-oct-14
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially deploys ground forces in Israel in the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas on or before October 14, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Deployment is defined as Hezbollah ... | 2023-10-08T19:08:15 | 2023-10-14T20:59:00 | 2023-10-15T17:38:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rvkBq8hjJAxlxPjF1rY4 | Hamas still in power in Gaza through end of October? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas is still recognized as the primary governing authority in the Gaza Strip through Oct 31, 2023. "Primary governing authority" is defined as Hamas having predominant political and military control in the Gaza Strip. If at any time prior to the expiry date, Hamas is no longer rec... | 2023-10-08T19:05:48 | 2023-10-31T20:59:00 | 2023-11-01T03:35:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-y7oXwxSaOdsvYcFpgsxb | Will Biden be the Democratic nominee? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-08T19:02:10 | 2024-07-22T17:00:41 | 2024-07-22T17:00:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PEq7gZBlJ5dgnRpLJltK | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be alive by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-08T17:52:01 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-07T18:29:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CWA7VIubo70TWugQi5iU | Will Russia Detonate a Tactical Nuclear Weapon in Ukraine? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-08T17:14:22 | 2023-12-31T17:12:00 | 2024-01-01T08:09:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bNd9Ur5qjDvOoTahS0GH | Will Logan Sargeant retire or crash out of the 2023 Formula 1 United States Grand Prix (COTA, Austin)? | Resolves NO if Logan Sargeant is still driving a car around the track when the winner crosses the finish line (or if Sargeant is the winner), including if he crashes after the winner crosses the finish line or on the cooldown lap.
Resolves YES if Sargeant crashes in qualifying and cannot start the race, or crashes dur... | 2023-10-08T15:40:52 | 2023-10-22T13:40:44 | 2023-10-22T13:40:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Z5oDmKzfMw5LyIk4tVoe | [2023 Formula 1 Season] Will both Red Bull drivers finish in the Top 5 in the US Sprint Race? | [United States Grand Prix / Austin / COTA]
Resolves YES if both Red Bull cars (regardless of driver, Verstappen, Perez, or reserve) finish in the Top 5 at the US Sprint Race.
Resolves N/A if only one car is able to race (regardless of which driver) for whatever reason. | 2023-10-08T14:14:36 | 2023-10-21T15:36:57 | 2023-10-21T15:36:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lmHjWh1z8Hb2rmmatfIS | England will defeat Fiji in their quarterfinal match at Rugby World Cup 2023 | Resolves YES if England defeat Fiji in their quarterfinal match at Rugby World Cup 2023.
Otherwise resolves NO | 2023-10-08T13:59:46 | 2023-10-15T09:53:02 | 2023-10-15T09:53:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gO5XsZtSvDwmEDCsDlcW | Will there be a new ongoing major war (10,000+ deaths) listed by Wikipedia by the 4th of July, 2024? | If an ongoing major war with a "start of conflict" in 2023 or 2024 is added to the Wikipedia List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts after this market is created and before market close, resolves yes. The war in Sudan is already on the list as of market creation, and so does not count for this market.
[image]Any Wikipedia van... | 2023-10-08T13:36:31 | 2024-07-03T23:59:00 | 2024-07-12T21:26:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lcxzO5Z6vqZIYguez6Md | Will there be a new ongoing war (1000+ deaths) listed by Wikipedia by the 4th of July, 2024? | If an ongoing war or major war with a "start of conflict" in 2023 or 2024 is added to the Wikipedia List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts after this market is created and before this market close, resolves yes.
[image]Any Wikipedia vandalism will be disregarded. The new ongoing war can be one of the ongoing conflicts with ... | 2023-10-08T13:34:06 | 2024-07-03T23:59:00 | 2024-07-12T21:26:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-f512wckJBZkk16nogz0u | Israel and Saudi Arabia will normalise relations before 2025 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-08T13:12:19 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-01T15:33:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-n3arR1ooQvcJJMZlfV6k | Will the UK ban smoking for future generations before the end of 2024? | In Dec 2022, New Zealand banned the sale of tobacco products to anyone born after 1 Jan 2009.
On Oct 4, Rishi Sunak's government proposed banning younger generations from buying cigarettes by raising the smoking age by one year every year.
This question resolves YES if legislation effecting a general restriction on s... | 2023-10-08T12:18:47 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:13:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cCqpRjIfNdWCZ4ZTE2JV | Will Iran declare that they are a nuclear power by the end of 2024? | Official declaration of nuclear weapons capability. Nuclear power generation isn't relevant to this question. | 2023-10-08T12:17:28 | 2025-01-01T21:59:00 | 2025-01-02T04:49:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LYGM4CeBtf0ZoBJlhoZF | Will Yuki Tsunoda finish in the points at the US Grand Prix 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-08T12:00:04 | 2023-10-22T13:50:23 | 2023-10-22T13:50:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-TWNhKQl9wkshCPEZ7Qc2 | Will Lewis Hamilton place on the podium at the US Grand Prix 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-08T11:56:05 | 2023-10-22T13:42:31 | 2023-10-22T13:42:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DgWgwle14lV60MFufW3K | Will Lando Norris place on the podium at the US Grand Prix 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-08T11:55:39 | 2023-10-22T13:43:26 | 2023-10-22T13:43:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-iZOBgFRHmRM5WZYMjK6i | Will Max Verstappen win the US Grand Prix 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-08T11:54:38 | 2023-10-22T13:47:33 | 2023-10-22T13:48:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-kBkQtbzDNQDBnqeX969J | Will SBF use neurodivergence as a defence at trial? | This will resolve to YES if Sam Bankman-Fried or his defence team claim that he is neurodivergent (eg autistic, ADHD) and use this as a defence of his actions at trial.
This needs to be more than simply noting or claiming that he is neurodivergent - it needs to be a specific part of his defence.
For instance:
"I see... | 2023-10-08T11:48:58 | 2023-11-03T00:38:40 | 2023-11-03T00:38:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-G7d67FUH2jNRbzziH3c0 | Did Netanyahu know about the Hamas attack before it commenced? | Will there be conclusive evidence that Netanyahu knew about the Hamas attack before it commenced?
By conclusive evidence I mean testimony from at least 2 people or a government memo which demonstrate that Netanyahu knew about a large (100+ person) attack from Gaza before 12:00 AM on October 7, the day the attack began... | 2023-10-08T11:48:16 | 2025-01-01T20:59:00 | 2025-01-07T17:50:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UJWUyl5jADAi4ICV3TFd | Will emergency US financial aid for Israel be announced by the end of next week? | This market resolves to YES if any US government source/agency officially announces extra financial aid to Israel in the wake of recent events, by next Sunday.
The market resolves to NO if no previously unplanned financial aid packages are announced for Israel. Military aid will not count as financial aid. | 2023-10-08T11:47:16 | 2023-10-15T20:59:00 | 2023-10-16T05:29:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OYZoVq0jONoTsJxNFvzl | Will Vladimir Putin win Russia's 2024 presidential election with 70% or more of the vote? | Russia is set to hold a presidential election on 17 March 2024. According to Wikipedia, Vladimir Putin's share of the vote in previous elections were as follows:
2018: 77.53%
2012: 64.35%
2008: N/A (Putin was Vice President; his ally, Dmitry Medvedev ran for President; Medvedev received 71.25% of the vote)
2004: 71... | 2023-10-08T11:10:36 | 2024-03-18T08:51:04 | 2024-03-18T08:51:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vBfi3Y9aDZSkBZwaBgJh | Wales will defeat Argentina in their quarterfinal match at Rugby World Cup 2023 | Resolves YES if Wales defeat Argentina in their quarterfinal match at Rugby World Cup 2023.
Otherwise resolves NO | 2023-10-08T10:32:38 | 2023-10-14T09:57:55 | 2023-10-14T09:57:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UVYgordtl5tJ2agVnhtT | Will a new Speaker of the House be elected by the end of October 14, 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-08T10:30:13 | 2023-10-14T22:52:43 | 2023-10-14T22:52:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iXtRW87enPJmg9acBy1g | Will $SPY close above $440.00 on December 29th, 2023? | Will $SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) close above $440.00 per share at close of trading on Friday, December 29th, 2023?
4:00pm EST on Friday, December 29th, 2023.
Yes: $440.00 & higher
No: $439.99 or lower | 2023-10-08T09:32:10 | 2023-12-29T13:36:38 | 2023-12-29T13:36:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-C42PPnyvsLrn1aW9FTmk | Will Joe Biden be the 2024 Democratic party nominee for President? | Will Joe Biden be the 2024 Democratic Party Nominee for President?
Summary
Based on the web research, it is likely that Joe Biden will be the Democratic party's nominee for the 2024 presidential election. Most of the available sources confirm his intention and ongoing preparations to run for a second term. However, t... | 2023-10-08T09:25:34 | 2024-07-21T14:37:27 | 2024-07-21T14:37:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iXZiXhPbVPiBAIZj819s | Will OpenAI be forced to license some portion of the copyrighted works used as training data? | OpenAI has taken the position that training an large language model (LLM) on copyrighted works falls within the "fair use" doctrine. Those who own the copyrights on these works disagree and several court cases are in progress.
This question will resolve to "yes" if any US jurisdiction rules against OpenAI, requiring ... | 2023-10-08T09:25:18 | 2023-12-13T16:08:15 | 2023-12-13T16:08:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IkY5a2KLE1LfwQQ5YKId | Will any Country Leave the EU Before 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-08T09:09:57 | 2025-01-01T11:04:53 | 2025-01-01T11:04:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PFf0ZJqsGcKKdZDKcHAA | Will the USA give any foreign aid to Afghanistan following the earthquake? | If the US government announces the donation of any amount of aid to Afghanistan in the next week (closing 00.00 BST 15th October) this market will resolve yes. If not it will resolve no. | 2023-10-08T09:04:27 | 2023-10-14T04:48:00 | 2023-10-14T04:48:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JV41HVPJfrwHfSNsNgAz | ETH price above $1600 by end of October? | If the 1 minute wick at 11.59 BST 30th October (2023) closes above $1600 on the spot ETH/USDT market on Binance this market will resolve yes. If not, this market will resolve no.
If USDT depegs the next best stablecoin spot pair will be used. | 2023-10-08T08:47:15 | 2023-10-31T23:58:37 | 2023-10-31T23:58:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-22TseJcx4HC3E6FnMimR | Will Tesla deliver its first Cybertruck before 11/30/2023 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-08T08:20:47 | 2023-11-29T22:30:06 | 2023-11-29T22:30:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gO7a5r4asXvWyLqNLInH | [Metaculus] Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024? | Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
The question resolves Yes if at any point between Oct 7, 2023 and Dec 31, 2023, the consensus of credible reports is that Hamas no longer has de facto control of the majority of the Gaza Strip. It resolve... | 2023-10-08T08:13:40 | 2024-01-02T11:00:00 | 2024-01-03T14:11:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0T0ZDVhkD7R4PK66Vxtj | Will Nikki Haley pass Ron Desantis in any national poll by January 1 2024 | Any national poll by nonpartisan polling firm currently polling the Republican primary.
Resolves to yes if Haley has any numerical proportion greater than Desantis to .1 percent precision
No if Haley is tied or Desantis leads
Resolved YES: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2023-national-poll-trump-making-i... | 2023-10-08T07:33:08 | 2023-10-20T11:55:56 | 2023-10-20T11:55:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-PzBki2fpNAruf0XHf9Fk | Will Nikki Haley pass Ron Desantis in any national poll by November 1 2023 | Any national poll by nonpartisan polling firm currently polling the Republican primary. Resolves to yes if Haley has any numerical proportion greater than Desantis to .1 percent precision
No if Haley is tied or Desantis leads | 2023-10-08T07:32:06 | 2023-10-20T11:55:08 | 2023-10-20T11:55:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XVlMdcf5tEL8PrhfJT6G | Will Nikki Haley pass Ron Desantis in any national poll by December 1st 2023? | Any national poll by nonpartisan polling firm currently polling the Republican primary | 2023-10-08T06:46:47 | 2023-10-20T11:56:18 | 2023-10-20T11:56:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xWal19JbYfZWDlg1kInY | Will the current Israel-Palastine conflict remain confined to Israel? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-08T06:28:29 | 2024-01-27T06:55:49 | 2024-01-27T06:55:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TnItTkAAZbTDxDoPnGvV | Will Biden physically fall down in public on camera again between October 8, 2023 and November 6, 2024? | Biden has physically fallen in public on several occasions in front of press cameras rolling. Will it happen again before the next presidential election? | 2023-10-08T06:05:08 | 2024-11-06T05:56:00 | 2024-11-20T13:11:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZyMYTlFFiFB1Un4doalr | Will TSLA hit an all time high (414.50) sometime before end 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-08T03:58:59 | 2024-12-11T09:44:14 | 2024-12-11T09:44:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Kb7cEsJRmCOQsRBGZz1S | Will Hezbollah invade Israel from Lebanon in October? | Following the recent attacks from the Gaza strip, it's been reported that the IDF is preparing for a Hezbollah invasion from the north. | 2023-10-08T01:42:36 | 2023-10-31T14:59:00 | 2023-10-31T15:07:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PfDN3FgWbrX2fri4rXiw | Will Hans Niemann finish top 3 at the US Chess Championship 2023? | Resolves yes if Hans places third or better at the end of the tournament.
Resolves no if he gets disqualified before the end of the tournament or places below the top 3.
Resolves N/A if the tournament doesn't finish.
If there's a tie in the final round he's treated as though he's the highest placement, this marke... | 2023-10-07T22:31:10 | 2023-10-17T16:59:30 | 2023-10-17T16:59:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-r3eAOkv29vwYDE2qjLYz | Will either party hold a trifecta after the 2024 election? | This resolves YES if the same party wins control of the Presidency, the House, and the Senate in the 2024 election. Resolves NO if at least one of these is controlled by a different party.
If either the House or the Senate does not have a party with an outright majority, the party of the Speaker (House) or Majority Le... | 2023-10-07T21:40:33 | 2024-11-13T20:12:04 | 2024-11-13T20:12:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8Mhdxa0oMOnSEI5HjkLb | Will Republicans control the House after the 2024 election? | Resolves YES if Republicans win a majority of seats in the 2024 election -or- if no party wins a majority and the first elected Speaker of 2025 is a Republican. Resolves NO otherwise. | 2023-10-07T21:32:37 | 2024-11-13T20:11:40 | 2024-11-13T20:11:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-b7WnF32ZxSOayfrPhLyr | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in Gaza before 2024? | Includes test. Resolves based on credible reporting. | 2023-10-07T18:02:19 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:12:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bJ2D1UIj0IGtnHIaKRNz | Will Israel strike targets inside Iran in October? | Either publicly acknowledged or "nudge and a wink" well understood. Local time.
Fuzzy, so I won't bet. | 2023-10-07T16:55:06 | 2023-11-01T18:50:08 | 2023-11-01T18:50:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf | Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel? | "Direct combat operations" means a sustained combat effort; special operations don't count.
Will resolve at end of current conflict, or extend if conflict doesn't end by time of closure.
Will resolve if confirmed by reliable media source (Reuters, BBC, the AP, etc.) | 2023-10-07T13:18:59 | 2024-10-03T10:30:59 | 2024-10-03T10:30:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FMboOMmLqOcxRGwfk5xS | Will Destiny win the debate with Ben Shapiro? [According to Manifold] | Destiny and Ben Shapiro have had a debate, which you can watch here
After watching the debate, you can rate the performance of Destiny and Shapiro in these two polls:
@/Joshua/how-do-you-rate-destinys-performanc
@/Joshua/how-do-you-rate-ben-shapiros-perfor
These polls, and this market, will close in two days.
If... | 2023-10-07T13:08:16 | 2024-01-25T23:59:00 | 2024-01-26T12:36:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ifu8nU2hjPPmptfF86GK | Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024? | This question will resolve as Yes if, on January 1, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War's map shows the Velikiy Tokmak railway station in Tokmak (47.234273433498416, 35.71907485774982) as not under either "assessed Russian advance" or "assessed Russian control". Notably, the railway station is on the southern end ... | 2023-10-07T09:13:35 | 2024-01-01T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T21:08:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-I6aRgH4w7NO20BeysqqI | Will any other nations join the Hamas-Israel war on the side of Hamas by 2024? | Update Nov 2:
To repeat certain things I have said around the comment section:
"International recognition" is not a requirement, only that the group hold significant amounts of territory and do normal government things like pass laws. International recognition is a political process that doesn't exactly grind reality... | 2023-10-07T09:11:27 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T08:26:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
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