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stringlengths 13
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stringlengths 0
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meta-35176
|
Will Dune: Part Two win an Oscar in 2025?
|
Dune: Part Two has been nominated for 5 awards.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Dune: Part Two wins an Oscar at the 97 Academy Awards. Resolves according to the credible sources or [the Oscars website](https://www.oscars.org/oscars/ceremonies/2025) when accessed by Metaculus.
Fine Print: This counts awards either won by the movie itself or awards won by someone who worked on the movie.
|
2025-02-18T18:00:00Z
|
2025-02-18T19:00:00Z
|
2025-03-03T12:45:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-34937
|
Will the body of water currently called the "Gulf of Mexico" on the National Map be renamed the "Gulf of America" before March 1, 2025?
|
According to Donald Trump's executive order [Restoring Names That Honor American Greatness](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2025-01-31/pdf/2025-02096.pdf) signed January 20, 2025: 
> The area formerly known as the Gulf of Mexico has long been an integral asset to our once burgeoning Nation and has remained an indelible part of America. \[...] The Gulf will continue to play a pivotal role in shaping America’s future and the global economy, and in recognition of this flourishing economic resource and its critical importance to our Nation’s economy and its people, I am directing that it officially be renamed the Gulf of America.
Additionally: 
> As such, within 30 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of the Interior shall, consistent with 43 U.S.C. 364 through 364f, take all appropriate actions to rename as the ‘‘Gulf of America’’ the U.S. Continental Shelf area bounded on the northeast, north, and northwest by the States of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida and extending to the seaward boundary with Mexico and Cuba in the area formerly named as the Gulf of Mexico. The Secretary shall subsequently update the GNIS to reflect the renaming of the Gulf and remove all references to the Gulf of Mexico from the GNIS, consistent with applicable law. The Board shall provide guidance to ensure all federal references to the Gulf of America, including on agency maps, contracts, and other documents and communica- tions shall reflect its renaming.
The National Map at nationalmap.gov is "a collaborative effort among the USGS and other Federal, State, and local partners to improve and deliver topographic information for the Nation. It has many uses ranging from recreation to scientific analysis to emergency response."
As of February 1, 2025, it had the body of water west of Florida, south of Louisiana, and north of Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula still labelled as the Gulf of Mexico on the National Map:
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the [National Map](https://apps.nationalmap.gov/viewer/) refers to the body of water west of Florida, south of Louisiana, and north of Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula as the Gulf of America before March 1, 2025. If it is not referred to as the Gulf of America on that date, this resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: If there is no name at all on the body of water, this resolves as **No**. For this to count, it must be called the Gulf of America on the National Map. If multiple names are used (e.g., "Gulf of America formerly known as Gulf of Mexico"), it will count as long as Gulf of America is one of the names.
|
2025-02-09T00:47:00Z
|
2025-02-09T01:47:00Z
|
2025-02-14T17:53:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-34752
|
Will the body of water currently called the "Gulf of Mexico" on the National Map be renamed the "Gulf of America" before March 1, 2025?
|
According to Donald Trump's executive order [Restoring Names That Honor American Greatness](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2025-01-31/pdf/2025-02096.pdf) signed January 20, 2025: 
> The area formerly known as the Gulf of Mexico has long been an integral asset to our once burgeoning Nation and has remained an indelible part of America. \[...] The Gulf will continue to play a pivotal role in shaping America’s future and the global economy, and in recognition of this flourishing economic resource and its critical importance to our Nation’s economy and its people, I am directing that it officially be renamed the Gulf of America.
Additionally: 
> As such, within 30 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of the Interior shall, consistent with 43 U.S.C. 364 through 364f, take all appropriate actions to rename as the ‘‘Gulf of America’’ the U.S. Continental Shelf area bounded on the northeast, north, and northwest by the States of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida and extending to the seaward boundary with Mexico and Cuba in the area formerly named as the Gulf of Mexico. The Secretary shall subsequently update the GNIS to reflect the renaming of the Gulf and remove all references to the Gulf of Mexico from the GNIS, consistent with applicable law. The Board shall provide guidance to ensure all federal references to the Gulf of America, including on agency maps, contracts, and other documents and communica- tions shall reflect its renaming.
The National Map at nationalmap.gov is "a collaborative effort among the USGS and other Federal, State, and local partners to improve and deliver topographic information for the Nation. It has many uses ranging from recreation to scientific analysis to emergency response."
As of February 1, 2025, it had the body of water west of Florida, south of Louisiana, and north of Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula still labelled as the Gulf of Mexico on the National Map:
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the [National Map](https://apps.nationalmap.gov/viewer/) refers to the body of water west of Florida, south of Louisiana, and north of Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula as the Gulf of America before March 1, 2025. If it is not referred to as the Gulf of America on that date, this resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: If there is no name at all on the body of water, this resolves as **No**. For this to count, it must be called the Gulf of America on the National Map. If multiple names are used (e.g., "Gulf of America formerly known as Gulf of Mexico"), it will count as long as Gulf of America is one of the names.
|
2025-02-04T05:01:00Z
|
2025-02-28T22:00:00Z
|
2025-02-11T21:30:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-34687
|
Will Joe Biden and/or Kamala Harris attend the Super Bowl in 2025?
|
The Super Bowl [is scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIX) for February 9, 2025.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Joe Biden and/or Kamala Harris is anywhere within the grounds of the stadium during Super Bowl LIX, according to public reports. Otherwise this resolves as No.
|
2025-02-07T03:00:00Z
|
2025-02-07T04:00:00Z
|
2025-02-11T03:13:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-34686
|
Will Elon Musk attend the Super Bowl in 2025?
|
The Super Bowl [is scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIX) for February 9, 2025.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Elon Musk is anywhere within the grounds of the stadium during Super Bowl LIX, according to public reports. Otherwise this resolves as No.
|
2025-02-07T03:00:00Z
|
2025-02-07T04:00:00Z
|
2025-02-11T03:13:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-34685
|
Will Donald Trump attend the Super Bowl in 2025?
|
The Super Bowl [is scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIX) for February 9, 2025.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if President Donald Trump is anywhere within the grounds of the stadium during Super Bowl LIX, according to public reports. Otherwise this resolves as No.
|
2025-02-06T15:00:00Z
|
2025-02-06T16:00:00Z
|
2025-02-10T03:37:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-34684
|
Will Rihanna, Jay-Z and/or Beyonce appear at the Super Bowl halftime show in 2025?
|
The Super Bowl [is scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIX) for February 9, 2025.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Rihanna, Jay-Z and/or Beyonce appear at the halftime show on the official broadcast of Super Bowl LIX. Otherwise, this resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Any appearance will count, including remotely or pre-recorded, as long as it is during the halftime show on the official broadcast.
|
2025-02-06T15:00:00Z
|
2025-02-06T16:00:00Z
|
2025-02-11T03:13:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-34683
|
Will Geico, State Farm, or Progressive run an ad at the Super Bowl in 2025?
|
The Super Bowl [is scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIX) for February 9, 2025.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Geico, State Farm, and/or Progressive run a television commercial on the official broadcast of Super Bowl LIX. Otherwise, this resolves as **No**.
|
2025-02-06T15:00:00Z
|
2025-02-06T16:00:00Z
|
2025-02-11T03:13:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-34672
|
Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Perplexity run an ad at the Super Bowl in 2025?
|
The Super Bowl [is scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIX) for February 9, 2025.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if OpenAI, Anthropic, and/or Perplexity run a television commercial on the official broadcast of Super Bowl LIX. Otherwise, this resolves as **No**.
|
2025-02-03T08:00:00Z
|
2025-02-03T09:00:00Z
|
2025-02-10T01:17:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-34671
|
Will Apple run an ad at the Super Bowl in 2025?
|
The Super Bowl [is scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIX) for February 9, 2025.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Apple runs a television commercial on the official broadcast of Super Bowl LIX. If this does not occur, this resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: For purposes of this question, we define television commercial as "a short video that is broadcast on television to promote a product, service, or brand." ([source](https://testbook.com/full-form/tvc-full-form)) In order to count, it would need to be aired during Fox's national broadcast, during a commercial break.
|
2025-02-03T08:00:00Z
|
2025-02-03T09:00:00Z
|
2025-02-11T03:11:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-34415
|
Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?
|
*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*
***
[Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_\(spacecraft\)) as the second stage. SpaceX [describes Starship](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/) as "the world’s most powerful launch vehicle ever developed, capable of carrying up to 150 metric tonnes fully reusable and 250 metric tonnes expendable."
So far Starship has undergone [seven "integrated flight tests"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starship_launches), two in 2023, four in 2024, and one in 2025 using the new Block 2 ship design. The ship of the latter flight exploded over the Turks and Caicos Islands during initial burn, likely due to a fuel leak.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after February 3, 2025 and before March 10, 2025, Eastern Time, a Starship vehicle reaches an altitude of at least 160 kilometers (approximately 99 miles) intact. For this to count, the Starship spacecraft has to be stacked on top of the Super Heavy booster at launch with both launched together.
Fine Print: * The question will resolve according to information published by SpaceX, including telemetry displayed during its livestream (provided Metaculus has no reason to believe the displayed telemetry is in error), or reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). In the event the altitude achieved is near 160 km but it is not clear whether 160 km was reached, Metaculus may wait for confirmation of the final altitude achieved to resolve the question. If on March 25, 2025, Metaculus determines that there is not sufficient evidence available to determine whether Starship reached an altitude of 160 km the question will be **annulled**. A statement from SpaceX or reporting from credible sources saying that Starship reached an altitude of "approximately 160 kilometers" or "\~160 kilometers" or similar will be sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**, so long as the estimated altitude is 160 kilometers or more.
* The Starship will be considered to be "intact" even if it has minor damage or defects, so long as it remains largely whole.
|
2025-02-03T16:00:00Z
|
2025-03-09T22:00:00Z
|
2025-03-10T19:09:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-34270
|
Will the Euro Area Inflation Rate be above 2.4% for January 2025?
|
Euro News: [Eurozone inflation rises for third month as energy costs edge up](https://www.euronews.com/business/2025/01/17/eurozone-inflation-rises-for-third-month-as-energy-costs-edge-up)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Eurozone inflation rate for January 2025 is above 2.4% on an annualized basis according to [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/inflation-cpi).
|
2025-01-30T01:00:00Z
|
2025-01-30T02:00:00Z
|
2025-02-24T12:43:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-34245
|
Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on January 30, 2025?
|
On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area.
[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant due to its elevation, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast).
Ukraine [previously said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aimed to capture the city by May 9 for its Victory Day holiday, which Russia failed to do. According to the [Associated Press](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/06/25/russia-keeps-up-the-front-line-pressure-before-ukraine-receives-a-boost-from-western-military-aid) on June 25, 2024, the Russian military is making a new push for the area:
>Relentless Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions defending the strategically important eastern town of Chasiv Yar are disrupting troop rotations and the delivery of some supplies, soldiers in the area say.
>Russian troops are seeking to press their advantage in troop numbers and weaponry before Ukrainian forces are bulked up by promised new Western military aid that is already trickling to the front line, analysts say.
Please see also Wikipedia: [Battle of Chasiv Yar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chasiv_Yar)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the status of these coordinates on the Institute for the Study of War's [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on or after January 30, 2025:
48°35'13.7"N 37°50'02.1"E
If this point on the map is under Russian control on that date, this question will resolve as **Yes**. If it is not under Russian control, it will resolve as **No**.
DETAILED INSTRUCTIONS:
1. Go to the ISW map page [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375)
2. Scroll down to the interactive map.
3. If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.
4. Paste these coordinates into the search box: 48°35'13.7"N 37°50'02.1"E
This question will resolve as **Yes** if the location is marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes the following, generally with shades of pink, red or yellow:
- Assessed Russian Control
- Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine
- Claimed Russian Territory in Ukraine
This question will resolve as **No** if the location is *not* marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes:
- Areas with no coloration
- Areas marked as one of the following, generally in shades of blue: Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours, Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives, or Ukrainian Partisan Warfare.
Fine Print: * The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.
* Forecasters can see the exact location of the coordinates by viewing the [ISW Map](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap), clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for "48°35'13.7"N 37°50'02.1"E".
- In addition to the categories listed in main part Resolution Criteria, any other categories created by ISW after the launch of this question that indicate Russian control of the location will also count as Yes.
|
2025-01-27T22:00:00Z
|
2025-01-27T23:00:00Z
|
2025-02-11T03:28:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-34241
|
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before February 1, 2025?
|
According to the Federal Reserve's [target funds rate history page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the most recent rate cuts were on November 8, 2024 and September 19, 2024, after a few years of relatively higher and rising interest rates. Previous cuts were on March 16, 2020, and March 3, 2020. Before then, there were three separate rate cuts in 2019.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, after the launch of this question and before February 1, 2024 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a reduction of any amount in the target federal funds rate range.
The primary resolution source is the FOMC's *target federal funds rate or range* webpage [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the Federal Reserve's official minutes and statements[here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm), or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) in case the Federal Reserve's website is unavailable or not timely updated..
Fine Print: This question resolves based on the announcement. Therefore, the effective date of the rate cut does not need to be before the resolution date, as long as the announcement is made before then.
|
2025-01-27T22:00:00Z
|
2025-01-27T23:00:00Z
|
2025-02-11T03:32:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-31794
|
Will the S&P 500 index go up in January 2025?
|
According to the [Bogleheads investment resource site](https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/S%26P_500_index): "The S&P 500 index is a market weighted index of 500 U.S. stocks, selected and monitored by Standard and Poors. The index dates back to 1923, when Standard and Poors introduced an index containing 233 companies. The index of 500 stocks was introduced in 1957. The S&P 500 index measures returns of the large cap segment of the U.S. stock market. As of 2020 it comprises about 80% of the U.S. market capitalization of stocks."
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on the final trading day of January 2025 is higher than that of the final trading day of December 2024.
Fine Print: The "close" values shown on the [history page of Yahoo finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC) will be used.
|
2025-01-23T22:23:00Z
|
2025-01-23T23:23:00Z
|
2025-02-11T03:15:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-31744
|
Will the USDA-posted recall by Pork Dynasty Inc. of Ready-to-Eat Fried Pork Skin Products issued September 27, 2024 be closed before March 1, 2025?
|
According to the USDA: "JPork Dynasty Inc., a Houston, Texas establishment, is recalling approximately 469 pounds of ready-to-eat fried pork skin products due to misbranding and an undeclared allergen, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) announced today. The product contains soy, a known allergen, which is not declared on the product label."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall posted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) of Pork Dynasty Inc.'s Ready-to-Eat Fried Pork Skin Products is changed from Active to Closed when [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/pork-dynasty-inc--recalls-ready-eat-fried-pork-skin-products-due-misbranding-and) is accessed by Metaculus after February 28, 2025. If the recall is still shown as Active when the link is accessed by Metaculus, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2025-01-21T10:42:00Z
|
2025-01-21T11:42:00Z
|
2025-02-20T02:35:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-31426
|
Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?
|
California's wildfire season [traditionally peaks](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/08/weather/southern-california-fire-winds-dry.html) from late summer through early winter. However, in early January 2025, Southern California [is grappling](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/california-los-angeles-fire-pacific-palidades-la-evacuation-latest-news-wctv8656d) with several significant wildfires which have consumed over 25,000 acres around Los Angeles and resulted in at least five fatalities. These fires are exacerbated by powerful Santa Ana winds, with gusts reaching up to 100 mph, and [exceptionally dry conditions](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2025/01/los-angeles-fires-drought/681243/) due to the lack of substantial rainfall in the preceding months. As of January 9, 2025, another round of Santa Ana winds [is expected](https://abcnews.go.com/US/us-weather-winds-wildfire-los-angeles-california-thursday/story?id=117496931) to further worsen conditions, with a critical fire risk being issued for most of the area.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if on February 15, at 20:00 UTC, the [incidents page](https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents) of the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection's website shows at least one fire under "Currently Active Incidents" with both
* at least 1,000 acres
* less than 80% containment.
Fine Print: If the website appears to not be up-to-date, Metaculus might resolve this question using alternative credible sources.
|
2025-01-13T15:30:00Z
|
2025-02-14T10:00:00Z
|
2025-02-15T21:42:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-31344
|
Will Fernanda Torres be nominated for an Oscar in 2025?
|
The 2025 Oscar nominations will be revealed on Friday, January 17.
[https://www.vogue.com/article/everything-you-need-to-know-2025-oscars](https://www.vogue.com/article/everything-you-need-to-know-2025-oscars)
Fernanda Torres just won a best actress award at the Golden Globes
[https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/2025-golden-globes-best-actress-drama-fernanda-torres-1236098810/](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/2025-golden-globes-best-actress-drama-fernanda-torres-1236098810/)
Will she also receive a nomination for an Oscar?
Resolution Criteria: announcement on the Oscars website or media.
|
2025-01-06T21:27:00Z
|
2025-01-17T10:59:00Z
|
2025-01-23T22:38:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-31342
|
Will Belgium have a new government by the end of January 2025?
|
Coalition talks in Belgium tend to take a long time. In 2020, the country broke its own record as it spent 652 days without a government. 
[https://www.brusselstimes.com/1317593/belgiums-government-formation-for-dummies](https://www.brusselstimes.com/1317593/belgiums-government-formation-for-dummies)
Coalition talks started after the elections in June 2024 and are still on-going. The negotiators hope to be able to get to an agreement this month:
[https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2025/01/02/federal-coalition-negotiators-meet-for-the-first-time-this-year/](https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2025/01/02/federal-coalition-negotiators-meet-for-the-first-time-this-year/)
Will they succeed and form a new government by the end of January 2025?
Resolution Criteria: In Belgium new governments get sworn in by the king - f.e.
[https://www.brusselstimes.com/133722/new-belgian-government-is-sworn-in-by-the-king](https://www.brusselstimes.com/133722/new-belgian-government-is-sworn-in-by-the-king)
Hence this question will resolve as yes if they king swears in a new government by the end of January 2025
|
2025-01-06T19:28:00Z
|
2025-01-31T11:00:00Z
|
2025-02-01T02:48:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-31321
|
Will another Oriental fruit fly be found in New Zealand in January 2025
|
A single male Oriental fruit fly was found in a surveillance trap in a suburban backyard in Auckland, New Zealand at the beginning of January 2025.
[https://www.mpi.govt.nz/news/media-releases/biosecurity-new-zealand-investigating-and-boosting-trapping-after-auckland-fruit-fly-find/](https://www.mpi.govt.nz/news/media-releases/biosecurity-new-zealand-investigating-and-boosting-trapping-after-auckland-fruit-fly-find/)
The Oriental fruit fly maggots can feed on 300 different fruit and vegetables so there could be an economic cost to the horticulture industry if the Oriental fruit fly were allowed to establish in New Zealand.
Resolution Criteria: an official announcement about further finds at [https://www.mpi.govt.nz/news/media-releases/](https://www.mpi.govt.nz/news/media-releases/)
Fine Print: if no official press release is made but articles in Stuff or NZHerald present credible sources, this will also resolve as yes.
|
2025-01-05T23:00:00Z
|
2025-01-31T11:00:00Z
|
2025-02-01T02:49:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-31247
|
Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?
|
On April 24, 2024, President Joe Biden signed [H.R. 815](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/815), an emergency appropriations bill which incorporated the [*Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act*](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/815/text#:~:text=DIVISION%20H%2D%2D%20%3C%3CNOTE%3A%20Protecting%20Americans%20from%20Foreign%20Adversary%20%0A%20%20%20%20Controlled%20Applications%20Act.%3E%3E%20PROTECTING%20AMERICANS%20FROM%20FOREIGN%20%0AADVERSARY%20CONTROLLED%20APPLICATIONS%20ACT)*.* This act prohibited the distribution of applications within the United States that are controlled by foreign adversaries, and would have the effect of [banning TikTok](https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/04/24/tiktok-could-be-banned-in-9-months-heres-what-may-stop-that/), a highly popular video-based social media app [operated by the Chinese company ByteDance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TikTok). The act gave ByteDance 270 days to either sell the US component of TikTok or be subject to a prohibition on its ability to distribute, maintain, or update the app. The 270 day period ends on January 19, 2025.
In December 2024, the Supreme Court [agreed to hear a challenge to the ban](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-agrees-hear-tiktoks-challenge-law-ban-rcna184686), with oral arguments taking place [on January 10, 2025](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/tiktok-inc-v-garland/). In its [emergency application for injunction](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24/24-656/335257/20241216144658388_TikTok%20Inc.%20v.%20Garland%20-%20SCOTUS%20Application%20for%20Injunction.pdf) TikTok and ByteDance claimed that TikTok has more than 170 million monthly American users.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that a ban on TikTok is in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025, in accordance with the *Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act* passed as part of [H.R. 815](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/815).
Fine Print: * If the ban is reported to be in effect and has not been stayed, paused, or otherwise rescinded, so that the ban was in effect for some portion of the day on January 20, 2025, Eastern Time, the question will resolve as **Yes**.
* Pending legal challenges and the compliance or non-compliance of ByteDance with the law are immaterial, the question resolves based on the status of US law on the date in question.
* Metaculus will resolve this question according to credible information published before January 22, 2025, Eastern Time.
|
2025-01-03T15:04:00Z
|
2025-01-19T05:00:00Z
|
2025-01-20T19:36:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-31245
|
[Short fuse] Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025?
|
President-elect Donald Trump is scheduled to be [inaugurated on January 20, 2025](https://www.nps.gov/subjects/inauguration/schedule-of-events.htm). During a [presidential inauguration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_inauguration) the incoming president takes the oath of office and formally assumes the presidency.
Inaugurations are [traditionally attended](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_inauguration#Attendees) by important US government officials and typically the outgoing president. However, it was [reported](https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/12/politics/trump-foreign-leaders-inauguration-invites/index.html) in December 2024 that Trump had invited foreign heads of state to attend his inauguration. Among those reportedly invited were Chinese President Xi Jinping, El Salvadorian President Nayib Bukele, and Argentinean President Javier Milei. According to [reporting by the Miami Herald](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article297314429.html) this represents a departure from prior tradition. For example, [reporting](https://abc13.com/archive/6601382/) regarding Barack Obama's 2009 inauguration discussed its express prohibition on foreign leaders as follows:
> The State Department last week informed all foreign embassies in Washington that, in keeping with past practice, their ambassadors and spouses can come to the event to represent their countries. Officials from their capitals, however, must stay home.
>
> "These invitations are only for the chiefs of diplomatic missions and their spouses and are not transferable," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice wrote in a diplomatic note sent to the embassies on Jan. 6.
>
> An earlier note, sent by Rice to the embassies on Nov. 24, says the exclusion of foreign leaders and top government officials is customary for U.S. presidential inaugurations. "As in the past, foreign delegations will not be invited to Washington for this occasion," it said.
[CNN reported](https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/12/politics/trump-foreign-leaders-inauguration-invites/index.html) unsourced confirmations of several foreign heads of state invited, but did not have a full list of invitees, saying
> Trump’s transition team did not respond to questions about what other leaders he invited. On Thursday, the president-elect suggested he may invite other foreign leaders people told him may be “a little risky.”
One potentially risky invitee would be Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu has visited the United States [a number of times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_international_prime_ministerial_trips_made_by_Benjamin_Netanyahu) during his terms as Prime Minister of Israel, and Israel is a close ally of the United States. But Netanyahu has not been explicitly named as having been invited by Trump, and a visit by Netanyahu to the United States could be complicated by a [November 2024 arrest warrant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_arrest_warrants_for_Israeli_leaders) for Netanyahu issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in relation to Israel's ongoing operation in Gaza. The United States [is not a party to the Rome Statue](https://www.aba-icc.org/about-the-icc/the-us-icc-relationship/) that establishes the ICC, and therefore avoids [ICC obligations](https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/files/bookletArrestsENG.pdf) on state parties to arrest individuals with outstanding warrants. However, such a trip would pose risks of needing to land in countries that are parties to the ICC.
In December of 2024 [The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/report-netanyahu-planning-to-attend-trumps-inauguration-in-january/) and [Ynetnews](https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hk11bpaysye) published articles rumoring that Netanyahu may attend Trump's inauguration.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that Benjamin Netanyahu attended in-person the presidential inauguration of Donald Trump on January 20, 2025.
Fine Print: * For the purposes of this question, attending the inauguration will mean attendance at any part of the swearing-in ceremony. Attendance of the inaugural luncheon or inaugural parade without attending the swearing-in ceremony would not qualify.
* In the event the inauguration is held on January 20, 2025, but must be performed privately, for example due to inclement weather, the question will still resolve as **Yes** if Netanyahu is reported to be present in-person at the swearing-in ceremony.
* If the US presidential inauguration does not occur on January 20, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.
* Metaculus will resolve this question according to information published before January 22, 2025, describing persons who physically attended the inauguration.
* The time zone used for the dates and times mentioned in this question will be Eastern Time.
|
2025-01-09T08:00:00Z
|
2025-01-20T05:00:00Z
|
2025-01-23T18:54:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-31151
|
Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025?
|
On October 1, 2024, [45,000 port workers at 36 U.S. ports](https://advocacy.calchamber.com/2024/10/01/east-coast-gulf-ports-on-strike-as-of-october-1-economic-stakes-high/) in the East and Gulf coasts [went on strike](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_port_strike) demanding, besides a pay rise, a [complete ban on automation](https://apnews.com/article/port-strike-ila-dockworkers-begins-e5468e760f46a64e4322d1702beb1f72). The strike was suspended two days later, with the current contract between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX) provisionally extended until January 15, 2025.
Negotiations between ILA and USMX have so far [proven fruitless](https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/will-ila-strike-january-experts-respond-usmx-negotiations/735862/). President-elect Donald Trump has signaled [support for the union](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-automation-causes-more-harm-longshoremen-than-its-worth-2024-12-12/) in the dispute.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that a strike by ILA workers has begun before February 1, 2025 EST.
Fine Print: * An announcement of an impending strike would not be sufficient to resolve this question. If a strike begins and is later stopped for whatever reason, this question will still resolve as **Yes**.
|
2025-01-03T15:00:00Z
|
2025-02-01T05:00:00Z
|
2025-02-01T12:33:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-31127
|
Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?
|
The [Big Four](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Three_\(tennis\)#Big_Four_era) professional tennis players are Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Andy Murray, known for their dominance in men's singles tennis over the last two decades. Djokovic is the last of the Big Four to remain active after Rafael Nadal's [retirement](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10144039-rafael-nadal-loses-in-final-match-of-legendary-tennis-career-at-2024-davis-cup) in November 2024. Federer and Murray [retired](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/tennis/top-stories/last-of-big-four-novak-djokovic-battles-on/articleshow/114155909.cms) in 2022 and 2024, respectively.
Djokovic, at 37 years old and recovering from a [recent injury](https://apnews.com/article/djokovic-atp-finals-injury-2f0342c609dd3da6edb6d0eeb976cc44), is [set to retire](https://www.eurosport.com/tennis/novak-djokovic-2025-season-australian-open-play-full-throttle-future_sto20052372/story.shtml) in 2025 but has said he will go "full throttle" including aiming for the title at the 2025 Australian Open. Djokovic [will be coached](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10144511-novak-djokovic-will-be-coached-by-andy-murray-through-2025-australian-open) by his fellow Big Four member, Andy Murray. If Djokovic wins, it will be his 100th career title. 
The [Australian Open](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Open), played on a hard surface, is a two-week tennis tournament founded in 1905 that is the first of the four major championships in professional tennis's Grand Slam (the others being the French Open, Wimbledon and the US Open). The 2025 Australian Open [is scheduled](https://www.roadtrips.com/tennis-packages/australian-open/schedule/) to begin on Sunday January 12, with the Men's Final scheduled for Sunday January 26, 2025.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Novak Djokovic wins the men's singles championship at the 2025 Australian Open.
Fine Print: If the 2025 Australian Open does not take place and conclude before February 2, 2025, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2025-01-03T15:04:00Z
|
2025-01-26T05:00:00Z
|
2025-01-24T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-31100
|
Will Denzel Washington win the Oscar for the Best Supporting Actor for Gladiator II?
|
Denzel Washington is an American actor, known for various roles including Malcolm X in the 1992 movie of the same name, Alonzo Harris in Training Day (2001), and Private Silas Trip in Glory (1989). The New York Times ranked him as #1 in their 2020 list [*The 25 Greatest Actors of the 21st Century (So Far)*](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/movies/greatest-actors-actresses.html#denzel-washington). He has received [multiple awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_awards_and_nominations_received_by_Denzel_Washington), including two Oscars (for Training Day and Glory), three Golden Globe Awards (for the same movies, plus an honorary award), and a Tony Award in 2010 for the play Fences.
In 2024, he appeared in Gladiator II, the sequel for Gladiator (2000). The movie received [mixed reviews](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/gladiator_ii), but Denzel Washington was nominated for a Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actor.
***
This question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).
Note: This question appears in the Future Perfect 2025 Community and Tournament, but is no longer slated to appear in Vox's January 1, 2025 article. 
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Denzel Washington wins the Academy Award for the Best Supporting Actor for his role in Gladiator II (2024), according to [the official page](https://www.oscars.org/oscars/ceremonies/2025) of the 97th Academy Awards.
|
2024-12-20T21:00:00Z
|
2025-03-02T10:00:00Z
|
2025-01-23T21:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-31042
|
Before the end of President Biden's term, will the Equal Rights Amendment be certified and published?
|
The [Equal Rights Amendment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equal_Rights_Amendment) (ERA) is a proposed amendment to the U.S. Constitution that seeks to guarantee equal legal rights regardless of sex. Initially approved by Congress in 1972, it required ratification by 38 states within a seven-year deadline to be adopted. The deadline was later extended to 1982, but at that time, only 35 states had ratified the amendment. In subsequent decades, the ERA has regained attention, with Virginia becoming the 38th state to ratify in 2020.
Advocates argue that the amendment should now be certified and published as the 28th Amendment, citing the sufficiency of state ratifications and questioning the enforceability of the earlier deadlines. Critics challenge the validity of these late ratifications and point to the rescission of ratifications by some states. In December 2024, 46 U.S. senators [petitioned](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/biden-pressured-to-publish-equal-rights-amendment-on-his-way-out) President Joe Biden to direct the National Archivist to certify the ERA. 
According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_Five_of_the_United_States_Constitution#Ratification_of_amendments):
> Upon receiving the necessary number of state ratifications, it is the duty of the Archivist to issue a certificate [proclaiming](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Promulgation "Promulgation") a particular amendment duly ratified and part of the Constitution. The amendment and its certificate of ratification are then published in the [*Federal Register*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Register "Federal Register") and [*United States Statutes at Large*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Statutes_at_Large "United States Statutes at Large"). This serves as official notice to Congress and to the nation that the ratification process has been successfully completed.
Joe Biden's presidential term is scheduled to end at noon EST on January 20, 2025.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, before the end of Joe Biden's presidential term, the [Equal Rights Amendment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equal_Rights_Amendment) is certified and published in the [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/current "Federal Register").
|
2024-12-17T10:19:58Z
|
2025-01-20T05:00:00Z
|
2025-02-01T13:38:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-31040
|
Will the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024 be less than or equal to 3,900?
|
The [CSI 300 Index](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000300.SS/), which tracks the largest companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, has experienced a period of [heightened volatility](https://vlab.stern.nyu.edu/volatility/VOL.SHSZ300%3AIND-R.GARCH), following a series of policy announcements by the Chinese government.
In September, Beijing implemented [aggressive measures](https://www.eiu.com/n/china-launches-financial-bazooka-to-lift-economy/) to stimulate the economy, including interest rate cuts, reductions in mortgage down payment requirements, and directives encouraging banks to increase lending for stock market investments. These actions spurred a [dramatic rally](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/business/china-stocks-csi-300.html) in the index, which rose nearly 35% over a 10-day period as both domestic and international investors rushed to capitalize on the momentum.
In December, the Chinese government [announced](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/09/business/china-monetary-policy.html) additional fiscal measures, described as “more proactive,” alongside moderately looser monetary policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption. These included efforts to stabilize the real estate market, support consumer spending, and encourage further investment in key sectors. The announcements [briefly lifted](https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-politburo-policy-shift-spurs-surge-stocks-bonds-2024-12-09/) the CSI 300, though concerns about the sustainability of growth persisted.
This development is part of broader efforts by Beijing to stabilize its economy amid a period of slowing growth and declining consumer confidence.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as Yes if the closing value of the [CSI 300](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CSI_300_Index) stock index at market close on December 31, 2024 is less than or equal to 3,900, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000300.SS/history/), using the "Close" column.
Fine Print: - Metaculus will review the resolution source on the resolution date. In the event that, at the time of such review, the resolution source does not show a closing value for December 31, 2024 (including, without limitation, due to a holiday or halt in trading affecting the December 31st trading day), this question will resolve to the last closing value available for 2024.
|
2024-12-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-14T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T04:09:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-31039
|
Will the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024 be greater than 3,900 and less than 4,150?
|
The [CSI 300 Index](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000300.SS/), which tracks the largest companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, has experienced a period of [heightened volatility](https://vlab.stern.nyu.edu/volatility/VOL.SHSZ300%3AIND-R.GARCH), following a series of policy announcements by the Chinese government.
In September, Beijing implemented [aggressive measures](https://www.eiu.com/n/china-launches-financial-bazooka-to-lift-economy/) to stimulate the economy, including interest rate cuts, reductions in mortgage down payment requirements, and directives encouraging banks to increase lending for stock market investments. These actions spurred a [dramatic rally](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/business/china-stocks-csi-300.html) in the index, which rose nearly 35% over a 10-day period as both domestic and international investors rushed to capitalize on the momentum.
In December, the Chinese government [announced](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/09/business/china-monetary-policy.html) additional fiscal measures, described as “more proactive,” alongside moderately looser monetary policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption. These included efforts to stabilize the real estate market, support consumer spending, and encourage further investment in key sectors. The announcements [briefly lifted](https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-politburo-policy-shift-spurs-surge-stocks-bonds-2024-12-09/) the CSI 300, though concerns about the sustainability of growth persisted.
This development is part of broader efforts by Beijing to stabilize its economy amid a period of slowing growth and declining consumer confidence.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as Yes if the closing value of the [CSI 300](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CSI_300_Index) stock index at market close on December 31, 2024 is greater than 3,900 and less than 4,150, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000300.SS/history/), using the "Close" column.
Fine Print: - Metaculus will review the resolution source on the resolution date. In the event that, at the time of such review, the resolution source does not show a closing value for December 31, 2024 (including, without limitation, due to a holiday or halt in trading affecting the December 31st trading day), this question will resolve to the last closing value available for 2024.
|
2024-12-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-14T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T04:07:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-31038
|
Will the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024 be greater than or equal to 4,150?
|
The [CSI 300 Index](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000300.SS/), which tracks the largest companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, has experienced a period of [heightened volatility](https://vlab.stern.nyu.edu/volatility/VOL.SHSZ300%3AIND-R.GARCH), following a series of policy announcements by the Chinese government.
In September, Beijing implemented [aggressive measures](https://www.eiu.com/n/china-launches-financial-bazooka-to-lift-economy/) to stimulate the economy, including interest rate cuts, reductions in mortgage down payment requirements, and directives encouraging banks to increase lending for stock market investments. These actions spurred a [dramatic rally](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/business/china-stocks-csi-300.html) in the index, which rose nearly 35% over a 10-day period as both domestic and international investors rushed to capitalize on the momentum.
In December, the Chinese government [announced](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/09/business/china-monetary-policy.html) additional fiscal measures, described as “more proactive,” alongside moderately looser monetary policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption. These included efforts to stabilize the real estate market, support consumer spending, and encourage further investment in key sectors. The announcements [briefly lifted](https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-politburo-policy-shift-spurs-surge-stocks-bonds-2024-12-09/) the CSI 300, though concerns about the sustainability of growth persisted.
This development is part of broader efforts by Beijing to stabilize its economy amid a period of slowing growth and declining consumer confidence.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as Yes if the closing value of the [CSI 300](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CSI_300_Index) stock index at market close on December 31, 2024 is greater than or equal to 4,150, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000300.SS/history/), using the "Close" column.
Fine Print: - Metaculus will review the resolution source on the resolution date. In the event that, at the time of such review, the resolution source does not show a closing value for December 31, 2024 (including, without limitation, due to a holiday or halt in trading affecting the December 31st trading day), this question will resolve to the last closing value available for 2024.
|
2024-12-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-14T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T04:06:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-31037
|
Will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024 be less than or equal to 17 million, according to the TSA?
|
In June 2024, the TSA broke the record for the most passengers screened in a single day, with TSA Administrator David Pekoske [saying](https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/releases/2024/06/24/tsa-breaks-record-most-individuals-screened-single-day-readies) "The traveling public is on the move, which is a sign of a healthy economy." Then on July 7, 2024, TSA [broke 3 million](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tsa-airport-security-screen-record-3-million/) travelers in a day, according to CBS News:
>One reason TSA agents experienced the record volume is because Americans are prioritizing making memories from traveling with friends and family, one aviation industry expert told CBS MoneyWatch.
>"During the pandemic, so many Americans got up close and personal with their own mortality," said Peter Greenberg, travel editor for CBS News. "That completely changed their purchasing patterns; people said they don't need new cars, new clothing, the newest electronic device, they want to buy experiences."
As of October 14, 2024, year-over-year growth in passenger screening numbers had slowed compared with summer, with numbers relatively flat when put up against comparable weeks in 2023. For example the 7-day period through October 14, 2024, was down 1.4% against the comparable period in 2023.
In recent years, these numbers have been as follows:
| Date | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
|----------------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|
| December 25 | 2,028,266| 1,800,463| 1,535,935| 683,838 | 1,996,541|
| December 26 | 2,665,034| 2,218,145| 2,074,458| 1,181,793| 2,623,113|
| December 27 | 2,663,517| 2,178,719| 2,093,615| 1,334,030| 2,654,247|
| December 28 | 2,633,264| 2,153,682| 2,000,891| 1,161,059| 2,540,383|
| December 29 | 2,636,605| 2,178,433| 2,029,343| 1,069,787| 2,647,034|
| December 30 | 2,563,962| 2,383,422| 2,069,413| 1,215,423| 2,572,305|
| December 31 | 2,116,715| 1,935,413| 1,658,357| 914,456 | 2,073,706|
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the total volume of passengers (in millions) screened by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) at its checkpoints for the 7-day period from December 25, 2024 through December 31, 2024 are less than or equal to 17 million. TSA posts the data at the following link: https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes The total passenger volume for the following days will be summed: 12/25/2024, 12/26/2024, 12/27/2024, 12/28/2024, 12/29/2024, 12/30/2024 and 12/31/2024.
Fine Print: No other numbers than the ones supplied by the TSA will be considered for this question. In case of reporting delays, resolution will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point the question will be **annulled** in case of the TSA not reporting the complete data.
This question is expected to be resolved on January 2, 2025, at approximately 9:00 AM Eastern US time, based on the numbers posted that include December 31, 2024. Any subsequent revisions of the numbers by the TSA will not be considered.
|
2024-12-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-14T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T23:34:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-31036
|
Will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024 be greater than 17 million and less than 18 million, according to the TSA?
|
In June 2024, the TSA broke the record for the most passengers screened in a single day, with TSA Administrator David Pekoske [saying](https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/releases/2024/06/24/tsa-breaks-record-most-individuals-screened-single-day-readies) "The traveling public is on the move, which is a sign of a healthy economy." Then on July 7, 2024, TSA [broke 3 million](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tsa-airport-security-screen-record-3-million/) travelers in a day, according to CBS News:
>One reason TSA agents experienced the record volume is because Americans are prioritizing making memories from traveling with friends and family, one aviation industry expert told CBS MoneyWatch.
>"During the pandemic, so many Americans got up close and personal with their own mortality," said Peter Greenberg, travel editor for CBS News. "That completely changed their purchasing patterns; people said they don't need new cars, new clothing, the newest electronic device, they want to buy experiences."
As of October 14, 2024, year-over-year growth in passenger screening numbers had slowed compared with summer, with numbers relatively flat when put up against comparable weeks in 2023. For example the 7-day period through October 14, 2024, was down 1.4% against the comparable period in 2023.
In recent years, these numbers have been as follows:
| Date | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
|----------------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|
| December 25 | 2,028,266| 1,800,463| 1,535,935| 683,838 | 1,996,541|
| December 26 | 2,665,034| 2,218,145| 2,074,458| 1,181,793| 2,623,113|
| December 27 | 2,663,517| 2,178,719| 2,093,615| 1,334,030| 2,654,247|
| December 28 | 2,633,264| 2,153,682| 2,000,891| 1,161,059| 2,540,383|
| December 29 | 2,636,605| 2,178,433| 2,029,343| 1,069,787| 2,647,034|
| December 30 | 2,563,962| 2,383,422| 2,069,413| 1,215,423| 2,572,305|
| December 31 | 2,116,715| 1,935,413| 1,658,357| 914,456 | 2,073,706|
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the total volume of passengers (in millions) screened by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) at its checkpoints for the 7-day period from December 25, 2024 through December 31, 2024 are greater than 17 million and less than 18 million. TSA posts the data at the following link: https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes The total passenger volume for the following days will be summed: 12/25/2024, 12/26/2024, 12/27/2024, 12/28/2024, 12/29/2024, 12/30/2024 and 12/31/2024.
Fine Print: No other numbers than the ones supplied by the TSA will be considered for this question. In case of reporting delays, resolution will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point the question will be **annulled** in case of the TSA not reporting the complete data.
This question is expected to be resolved on January 2, 2025, at approximately 9:00 AM Eastern US time, based on the numbers posted that include December 31, 2024. Any subsequent revisions of the numbers by the TSA will not be considered.
|
2024-12-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-14T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T23:34:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-31035
|
Will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024 be greater than or equal to 18 million and less than or equal to 19 million, according to the TSA?
|
In June 2024, the TSA broke the record for the most passengers screened in a single day, with TSA Administrator David Pekoske [saying](https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/releases/2024/06/24/tsa-breaks-record-most-individuals-screened-single-day-readies) "The traveling public is on the move, which is a sign of a healthy economy." Then on July 7, 2024, TSA [broke 3 million](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tsa-airport-security-screen-record-3-million/) travelers in a day, according to CBS News:
>One reason TSA agents experienced the record volume is because Americans are prioritizing making memories from traveling with friends and family, one aviation industry expert told CBS MoneyWatch.
>"During the pandemic, so many Americans got up close and personal with their own mortality," said Peter Greenberg, travel editor for CBS News. "That completely changed their purchasing patterns; people said they don't need new cars, new clothing, the newest electronic device, they want to buy experiences."
As of October 14, 2024, year-over-year growth in passenger screening numbers had slowed compared with summer, with numbers relatively flat when put up against comparable weeks in 2023. For example the 7-day period through October 14, 2024, was down 1.4% against the comparable period in 2023.
In recent years, these numbers have been as follows:
| Date | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
|----------------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|
| December 25 | 2,028,266| 1,800,463| 1,535,935| 683,838 | 1,996,541|
| December 26 | 2,665,034| 2,218,145| 2,074,458| 1,181,793| 2,623,113|
| December 27 | 2,663,517| 2,178,719| 2,093,615| 1,334,030| 2,654,247|
| December 28 | 2,633,264| 2,153,682| 2,000,891| 1,161,059| 2,540,383|
| December 29 | 2,636,605| 2,178,433| 2,029,343| 1,069,787| 2,647,034|
| December 30 | 2,563,962| 2,383,422| 2,069,413| 1,215,423| 2,572,305|
| December 31 | 2,116,715| 1,935,413| 1,658,357| 914,456 | 2,073,706|
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the total volume of passengers (in millions) screened by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) at its checkpoints for the 7-day period from December 25, 2024 through December 31, 2024 are greater than or equal to 18 million and less than or equal to 19 million. TSA posts the data at the following link: https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes The total passenger volume for the following days will be summed: 12/25/2024, 12/26/2024, 12/27/2024, 12/28/2024, 12/29/2024, 12/30/2024 and 12/31/2024.
Fine Print: No other numbers than the ones supplied by the TSA will be considered for this question. In case of reporting delays, resolution will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point the question will be **annulled** in case of the TSA not reporting the complete data.
This question is expected to be resolved on January 2, 2025, at approximately 9:00 AM Eastern US time, based on the numbers posted that include December 31, 2024. Any subsequent revisions of the numbers by the TSA will not be considered.
|
2024-12-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-14T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T23:33:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-31034
|
Will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024 be greater than 19 million, according to the TSA?
|
In June 2024, the TSA broke the record for the most passengers screened in a single day, with TSA Administrator David Pekoske [saying](https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/releases/2024/06/24/tsa-breaks-record-most-individuals-screened-single-day-readies) "The traveling public is on the move, which is a sign of a healthy economy." Then on July 7, 2024, TSA [broke 3 million](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tsa-airport-security-screen-record-3-million/) travelers in a day, according to CBS News:
>One reason TSA agents experienced the record volume is because Americans are prioritizing making memories from traveling with friends and family, one aviation industry expert told CBS MoneyWatch.
>"During the pandemic, so many Americans got up close and personal with their own mortality," said Peter Greenberg, travel editor for CBS News. "That completely changed their purchasing patterns; people said they don't need new cars, new clothing, the newest electronic device, they want to buy experiences."
As of October 14, 2024, year-over-year growth in passenger screening numbers had slowed compared with summer, with numbers relatively flat when put up against comparable weeks in 2023. For example the 7-day period through October 14, 2024, was down 1.4% against the comparable period in 2023.
In recent years, these numbers have been as follows:
| Date | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
|----------------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|
| December 25 | 2,028,266| 1,800,463| 1,535,935| 683,838 | 1,996,541|
| December 26 | 2,665,034| 2,218,145| 2,074,458| 1,181,793| 2,623,113|
| December 27 | 2,663,517| 2,178,719| 2,093,615| 1,334,030| 2,654,247|
| December 28 | 2,633,264| 2,153,682| 2,000,891| 1,161,059| 2,540,383|
| December 29 | 2,636,605| 2,178,433| 2,029,343| 1,069,787| 2,647,034|
| December 30 | 2,563,962| 2,383,422| 2,069,413| 1,215,423| 2,572,305|
| December 31 | 2,116,715| 1,935,413| 1,658,357| 914,456 | 2,073,706|
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the total volume of passengers (in millions) screened by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) at its checkpoints for the 7-day period from December 25, 2024 through December 31, 2024 are greater than 19 million. TSA posts the data at the following link: https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes The total passenger volume for the following days will be summed: 12/25/2024, 12/26/2024, 12/27/2024, 12/28/2024, 12/29/2024, 12/30/2024 and 12/31/2024.
Fine Print: No other numbers than the ones supplied by the TSA will be considered for this question. In case of reporting delays, resolution will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point the question will be **annulled** in case of the TSA not reporting the complete data.
This question is expected to be resolved on January 2, 2025, at approximately 9:00 AM Eastern US time, based on the numbers posted that include December 31, 2024. Any subsequent revisions of the numbers by the TSA will not be considered.
|
2024-12-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-14T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T23:32:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-31030
|
Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?
|
Aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/), founded by [Jeff Bezos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Bezos), is preparing for the [inaugural launch](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/12/intrigue-swirls-as-blue-origin-races-toward-year-end-deadline-for-new-glenn/) of its highly anticipated [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) rocket. This heavy-lift orbital launch vehicle, named after astronaut John Glenn, represents a key step in the company’s mission to advance commercial spaceflight and compete with other aerospace giants such as SpaceX. The rocket features a 7-meter-diameter payload fairing, providing significant capacity compared to conventional boosters, and is designed for both government and commercial customers.
The rocket is currently at Launch Complex-36 in Florida, with Blue Origin targeting a first flight by the end of 2024. However, a hot-fire test, a critical step before liftoff, has faced [repeated delays](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/company-news/2024/08/21/bezos-blue-origin-suffers-fiery-setback-building-new-rocket/), and final regulatory approvals are pending from the Federal Aviation Administration. However, the company has publicly signaled that the rocket is "[on track](https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/09/blue-origin-says-new-glenn-on-track-to-launch-before-end-of-2024/?guccounter=1)" for its maiden flight.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, Blue Origin's New Glenn launch vehicle leaves the launchpad under its own power.
If this does not occur before January 1, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: - This question refers to an integrated configuration of the launch vehicle, consisting of at least [two stages](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn#Description_and_technical_specifications).
|
2024-12-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-14T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T04:05:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30979
|
Will Michael Jordan's net worth exceed that of Starbucks founder Howard Schultz on December 31, 2024?
|
As of December 11, 2024, Michael Jordan's net worth was listed as $3.5 billion, according to Forbes, while Howard Schultz's net worth was $3.4 billion.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) Michael Jordan has a higher net worth than Howard Schultz on December 31, 2024. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: If there is a tie when looking at dollar values of their net worths, this resolves as **No**. If the resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until January 3, 2025, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).
|
2024-12-12T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-13T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T20:06:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30978
|
Will the cheapest new Tesla Model Y be listed as under $44,990 on December 30, 2024?
|
As of December 11, 2024, this price was $44,990
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, on December 30, 2024, the cheapest Tesla Model Y for US buyers is offered at the Tesla website for under $44,990. If the price is greater than or equal to $44,990, this question resolves as **No**. On of after December 30, 2024, Metaculus Admins will access the Model Y design page, currently at [this link](https://www.tesla.com/modely/design#overview). They will click on the "Cash" price and uncheck the box to include estimated incentives of $7,500 and 5-year gas savings.
Fine Print: No other resolution source other than Tesla's official website will be considered.
|
2024-12-12T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-30T19:06:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30965
|
Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?
|
On December 8, 2024, a coalition of Syrian rebels entered Damascus, ultimately ousting President Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Moscow and was granted political asylum by the Russian government. 
Russia has had tens of thousands of troops deployed in Syria over the years, with [several thousand remaining](https://kyivindependent.com/the-russian-weapons-in-the-balance-of-syrias-regime-shift/) after the start of the war in Ukraine:
> The BBC estimated that there were around 7,500 Russian soldiers in Syria as of the beginning of 2024.
> “Russia always had a very limited, surgical presence in Syria, and it is easier to sustain a small presence than a large presence,” Anna Borshchevskaya, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. She put the likely upper limit for total Russian fighters in Syria closer to 4,500.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 5, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that at least one of the following has occurred:
1. The majority of the Russian soldiers that were stationed in Syria in November, 2024 have withdrawn from the country.
2. There are fewer than 2,000 Russian soldiers stationed in Syria on any date after November 30, 2024.
Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**. 
Fine Print: * With respect to #1 above, the reports need not explicitly mention November, as long as they mention that the majority of the forces have withdrawn and they do not suggest that such withdrawal took place earlier than December 2024.
* Metaculus will use its best judgment to evaluate reports from credible sources that indicate a withdrawal has occurred. While statements from individual experts (e.g., a national security expert from academia or a think tank) will be considered, greater weight will be given to reports sourced from larger institutions, agencies, or governments (including statements from individuals speaking on behalf of such types of organizations) when determining resolution.
|
2024-12-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00Z
|
2025-01-05T20:41:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30953
|
Will the Grouse Mountain ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 20, 2024?
|
Vancouver Sun February 2024: ['Feels like a ripoff': Ski pass holders expecting discounts as some B.C. mountains remain closed](https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/ski-pass-holders-expecting-discounts-as-bc-mountains-remain-closed)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if On the Snow's Grouse Mountain Snow Report, currently located [here](https://www.onthesnow.com/british-columbia/grouse-mountain/skireport), reports the ski resort's operating status as Open when accessed by Metaculus on or after December 20, 2024. If it is reported as Closed, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be annulled.
|
2024-12-11T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-12T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-20T21:03:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30952
|
Will the United States have 100.0 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024?
|
[Almost half of the US is experiencing drought. How that can affect the food industry.](https://abcnews.go.com/US/half-us-experiencing-drought-affect-food-industry/story?id=115102946)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/current-conditions) lists greater than or equal to 100.0 million people in the U.S. affected by drought, when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after December 31, 2024. If the number is below 100.0 million, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-12-11T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-12T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T01:55:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30951
|
Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Homestead, scheduled to open December 20, 2024, exceed $7,000,000?
|
Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) "domestic" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking):
>Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included.
>Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the "rentals") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on.
>Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the domestic box office for the opening weekend of Homestead, according to the tracking page on [Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt29137778/?ref_=bo_se_r_1) exceeds USD $7,000,000.00. If the number is less than or equal to that, then this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: If BoxOfficeMojo fails to report the number before January 1, 2025, other credible sources may be considered. If the film is not released before January 1, 2025, the question will be **annulled**. This question resolves based on the figures reported when they are accessed by Metaculus Admins, and further revisions will not be considered.
|
2024-12-11T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-12T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-25T00:22:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30950
|
Before Jan 1, 2025, will Ontario Premier Doug Ford call an early provincial election scheduled for 2025?
|
Premier Doug Ford from the Canadian Province of Ontario has ruled out the possibility of an election in 2024 but has not definitively ruled out calling an early election in 2025. While the province’s next fixed election date is scheduled for June 2026, Ford has stated that preparations for potential elections are underway, including setting a December 2024 deadline for his party's members of provincial parliament to decide whether they will run again. Ford emphasized the importance of readiness and has encouraged year-round door-knocking efforts by Progressive Conservative caucus members.
The political climate in Ontario has been charged with speculation about an early election. Opposition parties have ramped up campaign preparations. The Ontario New Democrats raised $1.1 million over the summer of 2024, citing strong grassroots support. The Ontario Liberals, under new leader Bonnie Crombie, have raised nearly $3 million since December 2023 and have started organizing campaign staff and volunteers. Both parties have linked Ford's potential motivation for an early election to controversies such as the RCMP investigation into the Greenbelt land swap, which initially removed protected land for development but was reversed after public backlash.
In response to election speculation, Ford has shifted focus to key policy issues, including job creation, healthcare, education, and infrastructure projects. However, opposition parties argue that Ford may use an early election to circumvent growing criticism and investigations.
This political backdrop raises questions about whether Doug Ford will leverage his majority government status to call an election in 2025.
Source: [The Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/ontario/ford-rules-out-ontario-election-in-2024-but-could-call-an-early-election-in-2025/article_12533cae-3492-55f5-90ee-fb0cad937426.html)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if before Jan 1, 2025, Ontario provincial elections are called and voting is scheduled to take place before January 1, 2026. If no elections are called before Jan 1, 2025, or if elections are called but voting is scheduled for 2026, this question will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: This question will resolve based on the first issued writ of election. A potential postponement or change in the election date will not affect the resolution of this question.
|
2024-12-11T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-12T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T04:04:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30922
|
Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?
|
Aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/), founded by [Jeff Bezos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Bezos), is preparing for the [inaugural launch](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/12/intrigue-swirls-as-blue-origin-races-toward-year-end-deadline-for-new-glenn/) of its highly anticipated [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) rocket. This heavy-lift orbital launch vehicle, named after astronaut John Glenn, represents a key step in the company’s mission to advance commercial spaceflight and compete with other aerospace giants such as SpaceX. The rocket features a 7-meter-diameter payload fairing, providing significant capacity compared to conventional boosters, and is designed for both government and commercial customers.
The rocket is currently at Launch Complex-36 in Florida, with Blue Origin targeting a first flight by the end of 2024. However, a hot-fire test, a critical step before liftoff, has faced [repeated delays](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/company-news/2024/08/21/bezos-blue-origin-suffers-fiery-setback-building-new-rocket/), and final regulatory approvals are pending from the Federal Aviation Administration. However, the company has publicly signaled that the rocket is "[on track](https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/09/blue-origin-says-new-glenn-on-track-to-launch-before-end-of-2024/?guccounter=1)" for its maiden flight.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, Blue Origin's New Glenn launch vehicle leaves the launchpad under its own power.
If this does not occur before January 1, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: * This question refers to an integrated configuration of the launch vehicle, consisting of at least [two stages](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn#Description_and_technical_specifications).
|
2024-12-12T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T07:59:00Z
|
2025-01-01T12:30:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30911
|
Will Jeff Bezos be ranked in the top 2 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on December 31, 2024?
|
As of October 8, 2024, Elon Musk is ranked first on the list, with $260.8B. Larry Ellison is ranked 2nd, with $211.6 B. Mark Zuckerberg is 3rd, with $205.0 B. Jeff Bezos was 4th, with 200.9B. Bernard Arnault & family
was 5th, with $183.1B. And Warren Buffett with 6th, with $142.2B.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) Jeff Bezos is in 2nd place or better on December 31, 2024. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: A tie will count as **Yes**. If the resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until January 3, 2025, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).
|
2024-12-10T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-11T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T03:58:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30910
|
Before January 1, 2025, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at TikTok or ByteDance?
|
TikTok had a layoff event listed in January, April and May. ByteDance had an event in June.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker "A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs," which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/11/13/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), TikTok or ByteDance have layoffs following the launch of this question and before January 1, 2025, To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on or after January 1, 2025 and see if TikTok or ByteDance appears for the time in question. If TikTok or ByteDance are not listed as having a layoff event during that period, then this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Tech Crunch's "comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No.
According to Tech Crunch, "Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly." Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**.
For ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is TikTok or ByteDance. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, a question on Microsoft must specifically mention Microsoft, and a layoff event at LinkedIn will not count for purposes of this question (unless the subheading mentions Microsoft), even though LinkedIn is owned by Microsoft.
|
2024-12-10T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-11T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T03:56:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30909
|
Before January 1, 2025, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Apple?
|
Apple has had layoff events listed by Tech Crunch for February and April 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker "A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs," which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/11/13/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Apple has layoffs following the launch of this question and before January 1, 2025, To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on or after January 1, 2025 and see if Apple appears for November 2024 or December 2024. If Apple is not listed as having a layoff event under those months, then this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Tech Crunch's "comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No.
According to Tech Crunch, "Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly." Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**.
For ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Apple. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, a question on Microsoft must specifically mention Microsoft, and a layoff event at LinkedIn will not count for purposes of this question (unless the subheading mentions Microsoft), even though LinkedIn is owned by Microsoft.
|
2024-12-10T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-11T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T03:55:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30908
|
Will the year-over-year increase in rent in Dallas, TX in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 0.0%, according to Zillow?
|
According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Zillow reports in its [Housing Data](https://www.zillow.com/research/data/) resource page that its Observed Rent Index for Dallas, TX has risen by ≥0.0% for November 2024. If this does not occur, then this resolves as **No**. The figure can be accessed either through observing the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) chart or through the CSV file. To download the CSV, under RENTALS, make sure Data Type is set to "ZORI (Smoothed): All Homes Plus Multifamily Time Series" and Geography is set to "Metro & U.S." The RegionName "Dallas, TX" in the CSV will be used, specifically by looking at the year-over-year increase from November 2023 to November 2024. (First divide current value by prior value, then subtract one, then multiply by 100%.)
Fine Print: Please note that the instructions on how to access the CSV are provided for convenience only; according to Zillow, "We make frequent changes to the download paths for CSVs." In the event the location of the data has changed, the question resolves based on the new location. The question will resolve as soon as the data is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date and the data has been reported. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. In the event the chart and CSV report different figures, the CSV will take precedence.
|
2024-12-10T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-11T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-12T14:23:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30907
|
Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Virginia Beach, VA in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 4.0%, according to Zillow?
|
According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Zillow reports in its [Housing Data](https://www.zillow.com/research/data/) resource page that its Zillow Home Value Index, Raw for Virginia Beach, VA has risen by ≥4.0% for November 2024. If this does not occur, then this resolves as **No**. The figure can be accessed either through observing the Zillow Zillow Home Value Index, Raw (ZHVI) chart or through the CSV file. To download the CSV, under HOME VALUES, make sure Data Type is set to "ZHVI All Homes (SFR, Condo/Co-op) Time Series, Raw, Mid-Tier ($)" and Geography is set to "Metro & U.S." The RegionName "Virginia Beach, VA" in the CSV will be used, specifically by looking at the year-over-year increase from November 2023 to November 2024. (First divide current value by prior value, then subtract one, then multiply by 100%.)
Fine Print: Please note that the instructions on how to access the CSV are provided for convenience only; according to Zillow, "We make frequent changes to the download paths for CSVs." In the event the location of the data has changed, the question resolves based on the new location. The question will resolve as soon as the data is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date and the data has been reported. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. In the event the chart and CSV report different figures, the CSV will take precedence.
|
2024-12-10T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-11T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-12T14:24:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30890
|
Fernanda Torres ganhará o Oscar de Melhor Atriz em 2025?
|
Fernanda Torres (59) é uma atriz brasileira, filha de dois grandes nomes da dramaturgia brasileira, Fernanda Montenegro e Fernando Torres.
A sua atuação no filme "Eu Ainda Estou Aqui" (2024), do diretor Walter Salles, tem sido aclamado pelo público nacional e internacional, vencendo o prêmio Critics Choice Awards, na categoria de Melhor Atriz Estrangeira [Reportagem](https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/entretenimento/fernanda-torres-ganha-premio-internacional-e-agradece-a-distancia-veja-discurso/)
Há 25 anos, a sua mãe, Fernanda Montenegro, foi indicada ao Oscar pelo filme de sucesso do mesmo diretor, Walter Salles 'Central do Brasil'.
Na ocasião, Fernanda Montenegro perdeu o prêmio para Gwyneth Paltrow, na atuação de Shakespeare Apaixonado [Reportagem](https://www.band.uol.com.br/entretenimento/afinal-por-que-fernanda-montenegro-nao-ganhou-o-oscar-por-central-do-brasil-16639412)
Resolution Criteria: Considera-se "SIM":
Resultado oficial da Cerimônia da The Academy Awards, a ser transmitida ao vivo por canais de televisão ou internet, além de divulgação das mídia brasileira ou internacional.
|
2025-01-14T23:13:00Z
|
2025-03-02T20:00:00Z
|
2025-03-03T03:40:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30880
|
Will Nikola Corporation file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025?
|
Nikola Corp (formerly Nikola Motor Company) has been on many analysts' and investors' lists of being near bankruptcy for several months. ([Example 1](https://investorplace.com/2024/05/3-ev-stocks-nearing-bankruptcy-time-to-cut-your-losses/).) ([Example 2](https://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2023/12/15/with-81-bankruptcy-chance-per-macroaxis-nikola-stock-is-not-cheap/).) However, others [say](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/nikola-stock-2025-forecast:-will-nkla-go-bankrupt-or-become-a-multibagger) Nikola might hold on for at least a few more quarters.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Nikola Corporation files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **No**.
|
2024-12-09T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-10T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T03:55:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30878
|
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2025?
|
The potential capabilities of artificial intelligence may radically shift our society. This could be in positive or negative ways – including extinction risk.
Because of this, it’s important to track the development of goal-oriented independent thought and action within AI systems. Actions that might not have been predicted by their human creators and that are typically seen as morally wrong are particularly interesting from a risk perspective.
Machine learning driven systems are already being used to aid human hackers in their efforts. For instance, see [this list of cases](https://www.infoq.com/articles/ai-cyber-attacks/), including one in 2018 where an AI controlled a bot net in a DDOS
attempt that allowed a hacker access to Task Rabbit’s data for over 3 million users. However, up to now, we’ve had no reports where an AI has taken a similar action independently (ie. without human guidance).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1st, 2025 a credible source reports an AI has gained unauthorized access to a computer system in a way that meets the following criteria:
• The AI was not trained to or directed to gain access to the system in question by any actor. See additional clarifications in footnotes (1, 2, 3) in the fine print.
• The system it gained access to was not open to the public, and the AI was not given any relevant credentials in advance.
If the above points are not confirmed by the source (for instance, the article author is unsure if there was a human directing the AI), this does **not** resolve as **Yes** until some credible source gives high confidence in these factors.
The unauthorized access could be to user level accounts, admin level accounts, data stores, or any other reasonable interpretation of a computer system with restricted access. Any of these types of access is sufficient to resolve as **Yes** if all above conditions hold. Additionally, the source does not have to use the exact terms ‘independent’, ‘unauthorized access’, ‘AI’ or ‘computer system’ if the meaning is there.
As an example, imagine a credible source reports that an ML algorithm directed and / or trained to target certain people on social media and convince them to vote for Party X, decided on its own to hack into their Facebook user accounts so it could use their personal data to create a more convincing argument. This would resolve as **Yes**.
Fine Print: 1) The AI may have been asked to fulfill a nearby goal, such as ‘make lots of money appear in this bank account’ or ‘make this political party win’ – if they independently decide to access a restricted computer system they are not authorized for to achieve these goals, that resolves as **Yes**.
2) An AI that was trained more broadly to gain unauthorized access eg. to ‘get access to as many user accounts in as many companies as possible, using brute force password hacking’ does **not** resolve as **Yes**, as it was still directed to hack a set of systems that the reported case was included in.
3) The AI may have human assistance and still resolve as **Yes** if this is not directional assistance (for instance, it may choose to use social engineering techniques to have a human who doesn’t know it’s true purpose give up password details).
|
2024-12-09T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-10T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T03:52:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30877
|
Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q4 2024 compared with Q3 2024?
|
In Q3 2024, Tesla delivered 462,890 vehicles. In Q2 2024, Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles. Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla's deliveries were as follows: 422,875 in Q1 2023, 466,140 in Q2 2023, 435,059 in Q3 2023, 484,507 in Q4 2023, 386,810 in Q1 2024, and 443,956 in Q2 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Tesla reports greater than 462,890 vehicles delivered for the fourth quarter of 2024. If it reports deliveries of 462,890 vehicles or fewer, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Resolves based on reporting from Tesla's Investor Relations site. Generally Tesla reports deliveries two days after the quarter's end, which means the report is expected January 2, 2025. If Tesla does not report these numbers before January 6, 2025, this question will be annulled.
|
2024-12-09T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-10T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T23:32:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30876
|
Will Gannett Co. file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025?
|
Gannett is the largest owner of newspaper in the US, as measured by daily and Sunday circulation. Like other newspapers, it has faced years of declining revenues and in September 2024 [announced](https://investors.gannett.com/news/news-details/2024/Gannett-Announces-Debt-Repayment--Refinancing-Update/default.aspx) asset sales to help it manage some of its senior debt.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Gannett Co., Inc., files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **No**.
|
2024-12-09T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-10T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T03:51:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30870
|
Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?
|
According to [WHO](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON546):
> Between 24 October and 5 December 2024, Panzi health zone in Kwango Province of Democratic Republic of the Congo recorded 406 cases of an undiagnosed disease with symptoms of fever, headache, cough, runny nose and body ache. All severe cases were reported to be severely malnourished. Among the cases, 31 deaths have been registered. The majority of cases reported are among children, particularly those under five years of age. The area is rural and remote, with access further hindered by the ongoing rainy season. Reaching it from Kinshasa by road takes an estimated 48 hours. These challenges, coupled with limited diagnostics in the region, have delayed the identification of the underlying cause. Rapid response teams have been deployed to identify the cause of the outbreak and strengthen the response. The teams are collecting samples for laboratory testing, providing a more detailed clinical characterization of the detected cases, investigating the transmission dynamics, and actively searching for additional cases, both within health facilities and at the community level. The teams are also aiding with the treatment of patients, risk communication and community engagement. Given the clinical presentation and symptoms reported, and a number of associated deaths, acute pneumonia, influenza, COVID-19, measles and malaria are being considered as potential causal factors with malnutrition as a contributing factor. Malaria is a common disease in this area, and it may be causing or contributing to the cases. Laboratory tests are underway to determine the exact cause. At this stage, it is also possible that more than one disease is contributing to the cases and deaths.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 7, 2025, the World Health Organization (WHO) reports that the disease outbreak previously reported as undiagnosed [here](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON546) has been identified as having been predominantly caused by one or more of the following: Influenza, COVID-19, or RSV. If it is identified as a different disease or if no such reports are released before January 7, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: * Reports by other organisations besides the WHO will not resolve this question, unless their findings are explicitly endorsed by the WHO.
* The report has to be certain about the identity of the disease, stating that cases have been confirmed as such. A report mentioning likely candidate diseases or using language like "the most probable cause is \[X]" or "suspected cases" will not resolve this question.
* By “predominantly caused by”, we mean that the WHO reports that a majority of cases of death or illness resulting from the disease outbreak were caused by one or more of the three diseases identified above. By contrast, if the WHO reports that a majority of these cases of death or illness resulting from the disease outbreak were caused by one or more other diseases not named above, this question would resolve **No**, notwithstanding that a minority of cases may have been caused by one or more of the diseases named above.
|
2024-12-12T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T10:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T13:36:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30836
|
Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2025?
|
It is rare for the richest person or the richest family to double the wealth of the next richest. Bill Gates achieved this [in 1999](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#1999) when he reached $90 billion while Warren Buffett was at $36 billion, and was close [in 2001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#2001). The Walton family also achieved this in 1993 and 1994.
As of December 2, 2024 the net worth of the five richest individuals in the world is
- Elon Musk: $353B
- Jeff Bezos: $231B
- Mark Zuckerberg: $210B
- Larry Ellison: $198B
- Bernard Arnault: $171B
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for any single day after December 3, 2024 and before January 1, 2025, Elon Musk's net worth is equal to at least double the second richest person in the world, according to [Bloomberg's Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/).
Fine Print: In case Bloomberg's index is not available, Forbes [similar list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/) may be used.
|
2024-12-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-07T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T03:49:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30835
|
Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025?
|
[Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/):
> On Monday, Barnier, the EU’s former chief Brexit negotiator, used a controversial constitutional maneuver to bypass parliament and force through a social security financing bill. In response, the left-wing opposition put forward a no-confidence motion
[Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-turning-point-amid-budget-uncertainty-finance-minister-says-2024-12-03/):
> French lawmakers will vote on Wednesday [December 4] on no-confidence motions which are all but certain to oust the fragile coalition of Prime Minister Michel Barnier, deepening the political crisis in the euro zone's second-largest economy.
> Barring a last-minute surprise, Barnier's will be the first French government to be forced out by a no-confidence vote in more than 60 years, at a time when the country is struggling to tame a massive budget deficit.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that a new French Prime Minister has been appointed.
Fine Print: - A potential vote of no confidence on the new PM will not affect resolution.
- A caretaker PM will not resolve this question.
|
2024-12-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-13T14:29:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30834
|
Will the closing price of CAC 40 be less than 7,200 on December 31, 2024?
|
The CAC 40 is a benchmark French stock market index, representing a capitalisation-weighted measure of the 40 most significant stocks among the 100 largest market caps on the Euronext Paris. [Politico reports](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/) that markets have been unsettled by the prospect of the collapse of the French PM, with the CAC 40, falling by 0.2% on December 2, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if the close price of the CAC 40 for December 31, 2024 according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EFCHI/history/) is <7,400.
Fine Print: - If Yahoo Finance is unavailable, alternative credible sources may be used.
- Euronext Paris [is expected](https://www.tradinghours.com/markets/euronext-paris) to open on December 31, 2024. Nonetheless, if neither Yahoo Finance nor other credible sources published a number for that date, the close price for December 30, 2024 will be used.
|
2024-12-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-07T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T03:49:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30833
|
Will the closing price of CAC 40 be less than or equal to 7,400 and greater than or equal to 7,200 on December 31, 2024?
|
The CAC 40 is a benchmark French stock market index, representing a capitalisation-weighted measure of the 40 most significant stocks among the 100 largest market caps on the Euronext Paris. [Politico reports](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/) that markets have been unsettled by the prospect of the collapse of the French PM, with the CAC 40, falling by 0.2% on December 2, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if the close price of the CAC 40 for December 31, 2024 according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EFCHI/history/) is less than or equal to 7,400 and greater than or equal to 7,200.
Fine Print: - If Yahoo Finance is unavailable, alternative credible sources may be used.
- Euronext Paris [is expected](https://www.tradinghours.com/markets/euronext-paris) to open on December 31, 2024. Nonetheless, if neither Yahoo Finance nor other credible sources published a number for that date, the close price for December 30, 2024 will be used.
|
2024-12-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-07T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T03:48:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30832
|
Will the closing price of CAC 40 be greater than 7,400 on December 31, 2024?
|
The CAC 40 is a benchmark French stock market index, representing a capitalisation-weighted measure of the 40 most significant stocks among the 100 largest market caps on the Euronext Paris. [Politico reports](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/) that markets have been unsettled by the prospect of the collapse of the French PM, with the CAC 40, falling by 0.2% on December 2, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if the close price of the CAC 40 for December 31, 2024 according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EFCHI/history/) is >7,400.
Fine Print: - If Yahoo Finance is unavailable, alternative credible sources may be used.
- Euronext Paris [is expected](https://www.tradinghours.com/markets/euronext-paris) to open on December 31, 2024. Nonetheless, if neither Yahoo Finance nor other credible sources published a number for that date, the close price for December 30, 2024 will be used.
|
2024-12-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-07T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T03:47:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30831
|
Will Tesla's stock price be under $420 a share on December 31, 2024?
|
As of the close of trading on November 20, 2024, Tesla traded at $342.03
per share. At the time of this question, Tesla has experienced a post-election rally as its CEO, Elon Musk, is reported to be working in an advisory role for President-Elect Donald Trump.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **No** if according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history/) the listed "Close" price for Tesla, Inc., is greater than or equal to $420.00 for December 31, 2024. If it is under that price, this question resolves as **Yes**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. Forward or reverse stock splits will be immaterial for this question.
|
2024-12-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-07T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T03:46:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30830
|
Will Tesla's stock price be at least $340 a share on December 31, 2024?
|
As of the close of trading on November 20, 2024, Tesla traded at $342.03
per share. At the time of this question, Tesla has experienced a post-election rally as its CEO, Elon Musk, is reported to be working in an advisory role for President-Elect Donald Trump.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history/) the listed "Close" price for Tesla, Inc., is greater than or equal to $340.00 for December 31, 2024.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. Forward or reverse stock splits will be immaterial for this question.
|
2024-12-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-07T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T03:46:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30829
|
Will Tesla's stock price be at least $300 a share on December 31, 2024?
|
As of the close of trading on November 20, 2024, Tesla traded at $342.03
per share. At the time of this question, Tesla has experienced a post-election rally as its CEO, Elon Musk, is reported to be working in an advisory role for President-Elect Donald Trump.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history/) the listed "Close" price for Tesla, Inc., is greater than or equal to $300.00 for December 31, 2024.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. Forward or reverse stock splits will be immaterial for this question.
|
2024-12-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-07T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T03:45:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30828
|
Will Joe Biden sign 4 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?
|
According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order):
>In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the United States Constitution gives presidents broad executive and enforcement authority to use their discretion to determine how to enforce the law or to otherwise manage the resources and staff of the executive branch. The ability to make such orders is also based on expressed or implied Acts of Congress that delegate to the president some degree of discretionary power (delegated legislation)
In his final months in office, Joe Biden has signed executive orders on [gun violence](https://baystatebanner.com/2024/10/02/biden-signs-executive-orders-on-gun-violence/) and [labor standards](https://natlawreview.com/article/president-biden-signs-executive-order-directing-agencies-prioritize-pro-union-and).
Since becoming President, Biden has issued executive orders at the follow count per month:
| Month | 2021 | Month | 2023 |
|-------------------|------|------------------|------|
| January 2021 | 25 | January 2023 | 0 |
| February 2021 | 9 | February 2023 | 1 |
| March 2021 | 3 | March 2023 | 2 |
| April 2021 | 5 | April 2023 | 4 |
| May 2021 | 5 | May 2023 | 2 |
| June 2021 | 5 | June 2023 | 2 |
| July 2021 | 1 | July 2023 | 3 |
| August 2021 | 3 | August 2023 | 2 |
| September 2021 | 9 | September 2023 | 3 |
| October 2021 | 3 | October 2023 | 1 |
| November 2021 | 4 | November 2023 | 1 |
| December 2021 | 6 | December 2023 | 3 |
| Month | 2022 | Month | 2024 |
|-------------------|------|------------------|------|
| January 2022 | 1 | January 2024 | 0 |
| February 2022 | 3 | February 2024 | 3 |
| March 2022 | 4 | March 2024 | 4 |
| April 2022 | 3 | April 2024 | 1 |
| May 2022 | 2 | May 2024 | 0 |
| June 2022 | 1 | June 2024 | 1 |
| July 2022 | 3 | July 2024 | 2 |
| August 2022 | 2 | August 2024 | 0 |
| September 2022 | 4 | September 2024 | 1 |
| October 2022 | 4 | October 2024 | 0 |
| November 2022 | 0 | November 2024 | 1 |
| December 2022 | 2 | December 2024 | ? |
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if the number of executive orders signed by President Joe Biden after November 5, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, is 4 or more according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as the [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders) and the White House's [Presidential Actions](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/) portal.
Fine Print: Only official [executive orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) count. Other actions such as memoranda, notices and proclamations do not.
Executive orders are counted according to the date they are signed; date published is immaterial.
|
2024-12-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-29T01:09:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30827
|
Will Joe Biden sign 3 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?
|
According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order):
>In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the United States Constitution gives presidents broad executive and enforcement authority to use their discretion to determine how to enforce the law or to otherwise manage the resources and staff of the executive branch. The ability to make such orders is also based on expressed or implied Acts of Congress that delegate to the president some degree of discretionary power (delegated legislation)
In his final months in office, Joe Biden has signed executive orders on [gun violence](https://baystatebanner.com/2024/10/02/biden-signs-executive-orders-on-gun-violence/) and [labor standards](https://natlawreview.com/article/president-biden-signs-executive-order-directing-agencies-prioritize-pro-union-and).
Since becoming President, Biden has issued executive orders at the follow count per month:
| Month | 2021 | Month | 2023 |
|-------------------|------|------------------|------|
| January 2021 | 25 | January 2023 | 0 |
| February 2021 | 9 | February 2023 | 1 |
| March 2021 | 3 | March 2023 | 2 |
| April 2021 | 5 | April 2023 | 4 |
| May 2021 | 5 | May 2023 | 2 |
| June 2021 | 5 | June 2023 | 2 |
| July 2021 | 1 | July 2023 | 3 |
| August 2021 | 3 | August 2023 | 2 |
| September 2021 | 9 | September 2023 | 3 |
| October 2021 | 3 | October 2023 | 1 |
| November 2021 | 4 | November 2023 | 1 |
| December 2021 | 6 | December 2023 | 3 |
| Month | 2022 | Month | 2024 |
|-------------------|------|------------------|------|
| January 2022 | 1 | January 2024 | 0 |
| February 2022 | 3 | February 2024 | 3 |
| March 2022 | 4 | March 2024 | 4 |
| April 2022 | 3 | April 2024 | 1 |
| May 2022 | 2 | May 2024 | 0 |
| June 2022 | 1 | June 2024 | 1 |
| July 2022 | 3 | July 2024 | 2 |
| August 2022 | 2 | August 2024 | 0 |
| September 2022 | 4 | September 2024 | 1 |
| October 2022 | 4 | October 2024 | 0 |
| November 2022 | 0 | November 2024 | 1 |
| December 2022 | 2 | December 2024 | ? |
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if the number of executive orders signed by President Joe Biden after November 5, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, is 3 or more according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as the [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders) and the White House's [Presidential Actions](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/) portal.
Fine Print: Only official [executive orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) count. Other actions such as memoranda, notices and proclamations do not.
Executive orders are counted according to the date they are signed; date published is immaterial.
|
2024-12-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-28T23:40:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30826
|
Will Joe Biden sign 2 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?
|
According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order):
>In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the United States Constitution gives presidents broad executive and enforcement authority to use their discretion to determine how to enforce the law or to otherwise manage the resources and staff of the executive branch. The ability to make such orders is also based on expressed or implied Acts of Congress that delegate to the president some degree of discretionary power (delegated legislation)
In his final months in office, Joe Biden has signed executive orders on [gun violence](https://baystatebanner.com/2024/10/02/biden-signs-executive-orders-on-gun-violence/) and [labor standards](https://natlawreview.com/article/president-biden-signs-executive-order-directing-agencies-prioritize-pro-union-and).
Since becoming President, Biden has issued executive orders at the follow count per month:
| Month | 2021 | Month | 2023 |
|-------------------|------|------------------|------|
| January 2021 | 25 | January 2023 | 0 |
| February 2021 | 9 | February 2023 | 1 |
| March 2021 | 3 | March 2023 | 2 |
| April 2021 | 5 | April 2023 | 4 |
| May 2021 | 5 | May 2023 | 2 |
| June 2021 | 5 | June 2023 | 2 |
| July 2021 | 1 | July 2023 | 3 |
| August 2021 | 3 | August 2023 | 2 |
| September 2021 | 9 | September 2023 | 3 |
| October 2021 | 3 | October 2023 | 1 |
| November 2021 | 4 | November 2023 | 1 |
| December 2021 | 6 | December 2023 | 3 |
| Month | 2022 | Month | 2024 |
|-------------------|------|------------------|------|
| January 2022 | 1 | January 2024 | 0 |
| February 2022 | 3 | February 2024 | 3 |
| March 2022 | 4 | March 2024 | 4 |
| April 2022 | 3 | April 2024 | 1 |
| May 2022 | 2 | May 2024 | 0 |
| June 2022 | 1 | June 2024 | 1 |
| July 2022 | 3 | July 2024 | 2 |
| August 2022 | 2 | August 2024 | 0 |
| September 2022 | 4 | September 2024 | 1 |
| October 2022 | 4 | October 2024 | 0 |
| November 2022 | 0 | November 2024 | 1 |
| December 2022 | 2 | December 2024 | ? |
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if the number of executive orders signed by President Joe Biden after November 5, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, is 2 or more according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as the [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders) and the White House's [Presidential Actions](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/) portal.
Fine Print: Only official [executive orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) count. Other actions such as memoranda, notices and proclamations do not.
Executive orders are counted according to the date they are signed; date published is immaterial.
|
2024-12-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-28T23:40:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30825
|
Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?
|
According to [Airnow](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/):
>The U.S. Air Quality Index (AQI) is EPA's tool for communicating about outdoor air quality and health. The AQI includes six color-coded categories, each corresponding to a range of index values. The higher the AQI value, the greater the level of air pollution and the greater the health concern. For example, an AQI value of 50 or below represents good air quality, while an AQI value over 300 represents hazardous air quality.
>EPA establishes an AQI for five major air pollutants regulated by the Clean Air Act. Each of these pollutants has a national air quality standard set by EPA to protect public health:
> - ground-level ozone
> - particle pollution (also known as particulate matter, including PM2.5 and PM10)
> - carbon monoxide
> - sulfur dioxide
> - nitrogen dioxide
On November 21, 2024, CNN [reported](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/20/india/delhi-pollution-clinic-smog-climate-intl-hnk/index.html) that New Delhi had the most hazardous air for human health in the world, leading the Delhi Chief Minister to declare a "medical emergency" as authorities closed schools and urged people to stay home. On November 20, 2024 the reading for PM2.5, which has been linked to asthma, heart and lung disease, cancer, and cognitive impairment in children, was more than 77 times higher than safe levels set by the WHO.
At the time of this question, in 2024 year to date 6% of hours have had an AQI classified as Hazardous, 12% of hours have been Very Unhealthy, and 33% Unhealthy. To access the data for 2024 and previous years from 2015 through the present day, please go [here](https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/#India$New_Delhi) and click on the Historical tab.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least 1/3 of the hourly values reported by [AirNow](https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/#India$New_Delhi) for the dates December 16, 2024 to December 29, 2024 inclusive are categorized as having a "Hazardous" air quality index (AQI). If less than 1/3 of the hourly values are categorized as "Hazardous" air quality, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: - The dates and times for this question will be the dates and times reported by AirNow. No adjustments based on timezones will be made.
- If AirNow data are not available before January 7, 2025, this question will be **annulled**.
- Data can be accessed under the "Historical" tab at the resolution source.
|
2024-12-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-07T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T00:24:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30805
|
"Eu Ainda Estou Aqui" será indicado ao Oscar 2025?
|
Ainda Estou Aqui é uma adaptação cinematográfica do livro autobiográfico de Marcelo Rubens Paiva, que narra a emocionante trajetória de sua mãe, Eunice Paiva, durante a ditadura militar no Brasil.
Ambientada em 1970, a história retrata como a vida de uma mulher comum, casada com um importante político, muda drasticamente após o desaparecimento de seu marido, capturado pelo regime militar. Forçada a abandonar sua rotina de dona de casa, Eunice (Fernanda Torres/Fernanda Montenegro) se transforma em uma ativista dos direitos humanos, lutando pela verdade sobre o paradeiro de seu marido e enfrentando as consequências brutais da repressão. [Fonte](https://www.adorocinema.com/filmes/filme-265940/)
O filme tem sindo aclamado pela crítica nacional e internacional e conta com diversoas premiações [Prêmios](https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/entretenimento/ainda-estou-aqui-todos-os-premios-que-o-filme-ja-ganhou-ate-agora/)
Resolution Criteria: Considera-se "SIM":
A publicação oficial da lista dos indicados ao prêmio Oscar [The Academy Awards](https://www.oscars.org/oscars), ou divulgado por qualquer mídia online, nacional ou internacional.
|
2025-01-14T23:12:00Z
|
2025-01-17T07:59:00Z
|
2025-01-23T11:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30804
|
Fernanda Torres será nomeada na categoria de Melhor Atriz do Oscar de 2025?
|
Fernanda Torres (59) é uma atriz brasileira, filha de dois grandes nomes da dramaturgia brasileira, Fernanda Montenegro e Fernando Torres.
A sua atuação no filme "Eu Ainda Estou Aqui" (2024), do diretor Walter Salles, tem sido aclamado pelo público nacional e internacional, vencendo o prêmio Critics Choice Awards, na categoria de Melhor Atriz Estrangeira [Reportagem](https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/entretenimento/fernanda-torres-ganha-premio-internacional-e-agradece-a-distancia-veja-discurso/)
Há 25 anos, a sua mãe, Fernanda Montenegro, foi indicada ao Oscar pelo filme de sucesso do mesmo diretor, Walter Salles 'Central do Brasil'.
Na ocasião, Fernanda Montenegro perdeu o prêmio para Gwyneth Paltrow, na atuação de Shakespeare Apaixonado [Reportagem](https://www.band.uol.com.br/entretenimento/afinal-por-que-fernanda-montenegro-nao-ganhou-o-oscar-por-central-do-brasil-16639412).
Resolution Criteria: Considera-se "SIM":
Oficial indicação pelo website oficial da [The Academy Awards](https://www.oscars.org/oscars), ou outra divulgação de mídia online brasileira ou internacional.
|
2025-01-14T23:13:00Z
|
2025-01-17T07:59:00Z
|
2025-01-23T11:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30783
|
Will Xi Jinping continue leading China through January 1, 2025?
|
Xi Jinping is currently nearing the end of his second term as CCP General Secretary and is expected to make a bid for a third term and win it with a [92% chance according to a current Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/). There is considerable speculation that Xi will pave the way for a much longer tenure [akin to the tenure of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaping](https://www.ft.com/content/71b165a6-052d-4d7d-9006-e2e757f40d98). Having China ruled by a single figure with a potentially unlimited tenure might have considerable ramifications for a variety of topics ranging from the West's China policy to global security concerns.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve positive if either:
* Xi is CCP General Secretary on 1 January, 2025.
* Xi is paramount leader of China on 1 January, 2025.
* Xi is de facto leader of China on 1 January, 2025.
This question will resolve negative if:
* Any other person is leader on 1 January, 2025.
This question will resolve ambiguous if:
* China ceases to exist as the political entity it is right now
|
2024-12-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-06T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T03:44:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30782
|
Will Emmanuel Macron be President of France on December 31, 2024?
|
[French President Emmanuel Macron says he will NOT resign as crisis engulfs his Government after extremist parties were accused of playing 'Russian roulette' with the country's future](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14154367/french-president-emmanuel-macron-not-resign.html)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Emmanuel Macron is President of France on December 31, 2024.
|
2024-12-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-06T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T01:55:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30781
|
Will Bashar al-Assad be President of Syria on December 31, 2024?
|
AP: [What to know about sudden rebel gains in Syria’s 13-year war and why it matters](https://apnews.com/article/syria-hts-assad-aleppo-fighting-2be43ee530b7932b123a0f26b158ac22)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Bashar al-Assad is President of Syria on December 31, 2024.
|
2024-12-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-06T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T01:55:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30780
|
Will Miami have at least 5 days of rain in December 2024?
|
At the time of this question, Miami is Abnormally Dry according to Drought.gov at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/florida/county/miami-dade).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Miami International Airport NWS weather station reports 5 or more days of rain in December 2024 according to [this](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=MIA&network=FL_ASOS&year=2024&month=12) resolution source.
Fine Print: The resolution link is provided for convenience, but please note that if the data is at a different page at the resolution source, then that will be used.
|
2024-12-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-29T17:57:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30779
|
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?
|
[Thousands of professors join call for president to resign](https://www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=20241129133043835)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Yoon Suk Yeol is President of the Republic of Korea (also known as South Korea) on December 31, 2024.
Fine Print: Regardless of the circumstances, if Yoon Suk Yeol legally holds the office of President of the Republic of Korea on December 31, 2024, this question resolves as Yes
|
2024-12-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T18:28:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30778
|
Will Ghana declare a winner in its presidential election before January 1, 2025?
|
[Ghana’s December 2024 elections put the resilience of the country’s vaunted democracy to the test](https://afripoli.org/ghanas-december-2024-elections-put-the-resilience-of-the-countrys-vaunted-democracy-to-the-test) | [Ghana 2024 Elections: A Risk Assessment of the Online Information Space](https://www.iri.org/resources/ghana-2024-elections-a-risk-assessment-of-the-online-information-space/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the [Electoral Commission of Ghana](https://ec.gov.gh/election-results/) declares a winner of the 2024 presidential election of Ghana before January 1, 2025. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-12-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-11T15:34:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30744
|
Will Dogecoin close at below $0.50 a share every day before January 1, 2025?
|
Dogecoin's intraday price reached $0.43457 on November 12, 2024. See also The Economic Times: [Dogecoin outperforms Bitcoin and Ether, rises 145% since Trump's US election victory](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/dogecoin-outperforms-bitcoin-and-ether-rises-145-since-trumps-us-election-victory/articleshow/115209313.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the closing price of Dogecoin according to [this Coingecko link](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/dogecoin/historical_data) remains below $0.50 a share for the closing price for each day after the launch of this question and before January 1, 2025.
Fine Print: Intraday prices do not count; this question resolves based on daily closing prices. No other resolution source will be considered. The specific link to the website of the resolution source is given for convenience, but if the resolution data is at a different page at the resolution source, then that will be used for resolution. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be **annulled** if it still cannot be accessed.
|
2024-12-04T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-05T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T03:43:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30743
|
Will the Alpental ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 6, 2024?
|
From the resolution source: "Alpental (German for alpine valley) is one of four base areas at the Summit at Snoqualmie, separated from the other three by Interstate 90. Alpental offers the most advanced and expert terrain at the area with runs like Upper International and Shot Six. The area provides some of the steepest and deepest terrain, but it’s also great for beginner skiers and boarders.
Where Is Alpental Ski Resort Located?
The Summit at Snoqualmie is an hour from Seattle on Interstate 90."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if On the Snow's Alpental Snow Report, currently located [here](https://www.onthesnow.com/washington/alpental/skireport), reports the ski resort's operating status as Open when accessed by Metaculus on or after December 6, 2024. If it is reported as Closed, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be annulled.
|
2024-12-04T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-06T13:51:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30742
|
Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline between $3.020 and $3.080 (inclusive) for the week of December 9, 2024?
|
According to [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php), "Every Monday, EIA collects information on retail prices for regular, midgrade, and premium grades of gasoline from a sample of retail gasoline outlets across the United States using Form EIA-878, Motor Gasoline Price Survey Schedule A. The weekly survey is designed to collect data on the cash price offered at the pump (including taxes) to consumers for each grade of gasoline. The data collected represent the price as of 8:00 a.m. local time on Monday, for the self-serve price except in areas having only full-serve, and the cash price except for outlets accepting only credit cards."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports Weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Price of greater than or equal to $3.020 and less than or equal to $3.080 for the week of December 16, 2024. The resolution source can be accessed through [this link](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg&f=w). If the reported figure is different, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: If data from US EIA is not available, Metaculus may select a similar source of data or annul the question at their discretion. If EIA changes its reporting weeks, the week closest to the date mentioned in the Resolution Criteria will be used.
|
2024-12-04T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-11T15:57:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30741
|
Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be less than $3.020 for the week of December 9, 2024?
|
According to [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php), "Every Monday, EIA collects information on retail prices for regular, midgrade, and premium grades of gasoline from a sample of retail gasoline outlets across the United States using Form EIA-878, Motor Gasoline Price Survey Schedule A. The weekly survey is designed to collect data on the cash price offered at the pump (including taxes) to consumers for each grade of gasoline. The data collected represent the price as of 8:00 a.m. local time on Monday, for the self-serve price except in areas having only full-serve, and the cash price except for outlets accepting only credit cards."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports Weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Price of less than $3.020 for the week of December 9, 2024. The resolution source can be accessed through [this link](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg&f=w). If the value is greater than or equal to that amount, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: If data from US EIA is not available, Metaculus may select a similar source of data or annul the question at their discretion. If EIA changes its reporting weeks, the week closest to the date mentioned in the Resolution Criteria will be used.
|
2024-12-04T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-11T15:56:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30740
|
Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.080 for the week of December 9, 2024?
|
According to [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php), "Every Monday, EIA collects information on retail prices for regular, midgrade, and premium grades of gasoline from a sample of retail gasoline outlets across the United States using Form EIA-878, Motor Gasoline Price Survey Schedule A. The weekly survey is designed to collect data on the cash price offered at the pump (including taxes) to consumers for each grade of gasoline. The data collected represent the price as of 8:00 a.m. local time on Monday, for the self-serve price except in areas having only full-serve, and the cash price except for outlets accepting only credit cards."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports Weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Price of greater than $3.080 for the week of December 9, 2024. The resolution source can be accessed through [this link](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg&f=w). If the value is less than or equal to that amount, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: If data from US EIA is not available, Metaculus may select a similar source of data or annul the question at their discretion. If EIA changes its reporting weeks, the week closest to the date mentioned in the Resolution Criteria will be used.
|
2024-12-04T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-11T01:17:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30739
|
Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of greater than or equal to 1.25 degrees and less than or equal to 1.31 degrees?
|
According to [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies), "The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Global Land and Ocean Average Temperature Anomaly for November 2024 is greater than or equal to 1.25 degrees and less than or equal to 1.31 degrees according to NOAA at [this page](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series). Region is "Global" and surface is "Land and Ocean."
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-12-04T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-13T19:57:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30738
|
Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of <1.25 degrees?
|
According to [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies), "The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Global Land and Ocean Average Temperature Anomaly for November 2024 is less than 1.25 degrees according to NOAA at [this page](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series). Region is "Global" and surface is "Land and Ocean."
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-12-04T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-13T19:57:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30737
|
Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of >1.31 degrees?
|
According to [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies), "The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Global Land and Ocean Average Temperature Anomaly for November 2024 is greater than 1.31 degrees according to NOAA at [this page](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series). Region is "Global" and surface is "Land and Ocean."
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-12-04T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-13T19:54:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30736
|
Will Daniel Penny be convicted in connection with the death of Jordan Neely before January 1, 2025?
|
Wikipedia: [Killing of Jordan Neely](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Jordan_Neely) | [Update: People v. Daniel Penny](https://mediaroom.substack.com/p/update-people-v-daniel-penny-2f3)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, Daniel Penny is found guilty or convicted of any charges stemming from the death of Jordan Neely, whether through a jury verdict or through a guilty plea (including through a plea bargain).
Fine Print: Please note that Penny does not have to be found not guilty; a jury still deliberation after December 31, 2024 will result in a resolution of No, as long as Penny has not been convicted of anything else in connection. Additionally, a hung jury or any other result other than a conviction or guilty plea will result in a resolution of No. Any charges count, even misdemeanors.
|
2024-12-04T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-05T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T03:42:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30735
|
Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?
|
NBC News: [Pakistani troops killed as protesters storm barricades demanding the release of jailed ex-PM Imran Khan](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/pakistan-protests-imran-khan-troops-killed-islamabad-violence-rcna181774)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Bushra Bibi, the wife of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, is arrested before January 1, 2025.
Fine Print: In order to streamline this question's resolution, please note that an arrest anywhere in the world, for any reason, will resolve this question as Yes. For purposes of this question, we define "arrest" using the definition [posted at Nolo](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/justifies-arrest-probable-cause.html): "An arrest requires taking someone into custody, against that person's will, in order to prosecute or interrogate. It involves a physical application of force, or submission to an officer's show of force. In sum, the arrestee must not be free to leave. Whether the act by the police is termed an arrest under state law is not relevant. When deciding whether someone has been arrested, courts apply the 'reasonable man' standard. This means asking whether a reasonable person, in the shoes of the defendant, would have concluded that he or she was not free to leave."
|
2024-12-04T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-05T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T03:41:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30711
|
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?
|
[Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-president-yoon-declares-martial-law-2024-12-03/):
> In South Korea's biggest political crisis in decades, Yoon shocked the nation and declared martial law on Tuesday night to thwart "anti-state forces" among his domestic political opponents. But outraged lawmakers unanimously rejected the decree. Yonhap news agency said the cabinet had agreed early on Wednesday to scrap the martial law.
Protesters outside the National Assembly parliament shouted and clapped. “We won!” they chanted, and one demonstrator banged on a drum.
>
> The main opposition Democratic Party called for Yoon, who has been in office since 2022, to resign or face impeachment. “Even if martial law is lifted, he cannot avoid treason charges. It was clearly revealed to the entire nation that President Yoon could no longer run the country normally. He should step down," senior DP member of parliament Park Chan-dae said in a statement.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Yoon Suk Yeol is President of the Republic of Korea (also known as South Korea) on December 31, 2024.
Fine Print: Regardless of the circumstances, if Yoon Suk Yeol holds the office of President of the Republic of Korea on December 31, 2024, this question resolves as **Yes**.
|
2024-12-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T12:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T19:07:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-23461
|
Drake vs Kendrick Lamar: will either artist release another diss track in May?
|
Popular rappers Drake and Kendrick Lamar have been publicly feuding after a years-long contempt has bubbled into an all-out war, with each artist leveling enormous unsubstantiated accusations at the other. After the most recent round of the beef, with the release of Kendrick's "Not Like Us" and Drake's "The Heart Part 6", many have speculated that the feud has reached a tipping point and neither artist will release any further music. Do you think it's been played out, or there's more yet?
Further Background: [Wikipedia Drake–Kendrick Lamar feud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake%E2%80%93Kendrick_Lamar_feud)
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves as **Yes** if either Drake or Kendrick Lamar releases another diss track directly intended for the other artist after May 9, 2024 and before June 1, 2024.
Fine Print: For purposes of this question "diss track" is defined using the [Wikipedia definition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diss_(music)) as "a song whose primary purpose is to verbally attack someone else, usually another artist."
"Directly intended" is defined as naming the other artist or referencing various events with him, insulting him or making accusations in the lyrics.
|
2024-05-10T15:00:00Z
|
2024-05-30T04:00:00Z
|
2024-06-02T00:38:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-23384
|
Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly?
|
In late 2021 member states of the World Health Organization (WHO) [began negotiating an international agreement on pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/issue-brief/the-pandemic-agreement-what-it-is-what-it-isnt-and-what-it-could-mean-for-the-u-s), which has been known as the Pandemic Agreement or Pandemic Accord. The [goal of the agreement](https://www.who.int/news/item/01-12-2021-world-health-assembly-agrees-to-launch-process-to-develop-historic-global-accord-on-pandemic-prevention-preparedness-and-response) is to improve responsiveness to better combat future pandemics using lessons learned from the COVID-19 response.
A [round of negotiations](https://www.who.int/news/item/28-03-2024-who-member-states-agree-to-resume-negotiations-aimed-at-finalizing-the-world-s-first-pandemic-agreement) aimed at finalizing the agreement began on April 29, 2024, and are scheduled to end on May 10, 2024. The agreement is [scheduled to be considered for adoption](https://www.who.int/news/item/28-03-2024-who-member-states-agree-to-resume-negotiations-aimed-at-finalizing-the-world-s-first-pandemic-agreement) at the upcoming [Seventy-seventh World Health Assembly](https://www.who.int/about/accountability/governance/world-health-assembly/seventy-seventh) taking place May 27 to June 1, 2024.
The level of agreement needed to approve the Pandemic Agreement may depend on the final form of the agreement, [such as whether it would be considered a treaty, regulation, or resolution](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/issue-brief/the-pandemic-agreement-what-it-is-what-it-isnt-and-what-it-could-mean-for-the-u-s/#:~:text=What%20are%20possible%20outcomes%20of%20the%20agreement%20negotiations%3F). Politicians in some WHO member countries, including the United States, [have stated opposition](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/who-chief-urges-countries-finalise-pandemic-accord-by-deadline-2024-05-03/) to the agreement on the basis of potentially being subject to legally binding rules within the agreement.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, during the May 2024 World Health Assembly (WHA) the Pandemic Agreement is approved in a vote, according to reports from credible sources.
Fine Print: * The question will resolve as **No** if the WHA ends without the Pandemic Agreement being approved. If the WHA is delayed, extended, or postponed such that the WHA has not ended before June 5, 2024 (including if it has not started before then), and the Pandemic Agreement has not been approved before June 5, 2024, the question will also resolve as **No**.
* The contents or form of the Pandemic Agreement are immaterial for this question. The question will resolve as **Yes** so long as credible sources report that the final version of the draft text known as the Pandemic Agreement or Pandemic Accord or similar was approved in a vote. The form and threshold needed for the Pandemic Agreement is also immaterial, whether it is voted on as a treaty, regulation, resolution, or any other form.
* If a vote for the Pandemic Agreement fails but a later vote at the WHA succeeds the question will still resolve as **Yes**, including if the Pandemic Agreement is revised following a failed vote and then is successfully passed, as long as it happens before June 5, 2024.
* This question only asks about approval at the WHA and not about whether it satisfies other criteria necessary to enter into force, such as ratification.
|
2024-05-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-05-27T22:00:00Z
|
2024-06-02T20:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-23317
|
Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?
|
On May 6, 2024, Columbia University [cancelled](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/05/06/columbia-commencement-ceremony-protest-live-updates/73583447007/) its main commencement ceremony, opting instead to honor its graduates in 19 smaller ceremonies for each of its colleges. The decision was made in response to pro-Palestinian protests that erupted at the university.
UCLA has [cancelled in-person classes](https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/ucla-cancel-in-person-classes-again-after-more-israel-hamas-war-protests/) at its campus, and there has been speculation that it may cancel its main commencement as well. Its fellow southern California school, USC, recently [moved its ceremony](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-05-03/usc-shores-up-campus-limits-access-before-commencement) to the LA Coliseum.
See Also:
MSN: [Pro-Palestinian Protests Put College Commencements in Jeopardy](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/pro-palestinian-protests-put-college-commencements-in-jeopardy/ar-BB1lUU4h)
Newsweek: [Full List of Colleges Cancelling Graduation Services Amid Campus Protests](https://www.newsweek.com/columbia-cancels-graduation-ceremony-universities-palestine-protests-1897560)
USA Today: [College graduation canceled due to anti-war protests? It's happened before](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2024/05/07/why-do-colleges-cancel-graduation-a-brief-history/73586349007/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the University of California-Los Angeles (UCLA) holds all three of its main in-person college commencement ceremonies for the graduating Class of 2024 [scheduled](https://commencement.ucla.edu/schedule/ucla-commencement-schedule-alphabetical#college) for the following times and locations on June 14, 2024:
- 11 AM at the Pauley Pavilion
- 3 PM at the Pauley Pavilion
- 7 PM at the Pauley Pavilion
The ceremonies must all occur at the specified locations and begin within 1 hour of the scheduled starting time.
This question will resolve as **No** if any ceremony either does not begin within an hour of the scheduled time, is moved to another location, or is held entirely online (i.e., without graduates, faculty, and guests attending in person).
Fine Print: If some students attend virtually, this does not affect the resolution as long as the ceremonies themselves are held in person at Pauley Pavilion. Therefore the availability of an online stream for any students who wish to attend that way will not affect the resolution of this question.
If a ceremony starts within an hour of the scheduled time but is cut short due to circumstances (including but not limited to protests), it will still count as long as it has officially started.
Changes to the ceremony (including but not limited to cancelling speakers or shortening the events) will not affect the resolution of this question.
|
2024-05-08T14:30:00Z
|
2024-06-01T16:00:00Z
|
2024-06-15T13:59:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-23030
|
Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before 2025?
|
In recent years, Turkey experienced high inflation, climbing [up to 85%](https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/inflation-cpi) at peak, and 68% year-on-year as of April, 2024. Due to high inflation, Turkish government diverged from its policy of yearly increases in minimum wage, and increased minimum wage twice in [2022 and 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_Turkey). The last minimum wage increase was [on January, 1, 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-raises-monthly-minimum-wage-by-49-2024-2023-12-27/), when wages rose by 50%. However, it was already [partially eaten by inflation](https://stockholmcf.org/turkeys-hunger-threshold-exceeds-minimum-wage/). The share of workers receiving minimum wage is estimated to be between [33% and 50%](https://www.intellinews.com/turkey-s-minimum-wage-becoming-average-wage-protest-unions-304930/#:~:text=Around%2050%25%20of%20workers%20in,to%20DISK%20chair%20Arzu%20Cerkezoglu.).
Recently the ruling party of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan lost in local elections, in what has been described as a "[historic victory](https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/01/turkey-elections-chp-imamoglu-erdogan-akp-israel-iran-consulate-syria/)" for the opposition. There has been speculation that this might spark populist policies such as an increased minimum wage, but in April 2024 the Turkish Labor and Social Security Minister Vedat Işıkhan [said](https://www.duvarenglish.com/turkish-labor-minister-rules-out-second-minimum-wage-hike-in-2024-news-64217) about a possible second minimum wage hike, "We have no such agenda. We will continue as we decided at the beginning."
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report before January, 1, 2025, that another minimum wage increase was in effect in Turkey in 2024. Wage increases that are approved in 2024, but taking effect in 2025 (e.g. starting January, 1, 2025) do not count towards resolution. If no such report is made before January, 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Increases of any size, no matter how small, count towards the resolution of this question.
|
2024-05-05T12:00:00Z
|
2024-12-25T09:00:00Z
|
2025-01-09T18:53:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-23018
|
Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?
|
In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials stemming from possible allegations of war crimes in Gaza. NBC [reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-fears-icc-issue-arrest-warrants-netanyahu-gaza-war-hamas-rcna149739) that these arrest warrants could come as early as this week, and Israel is working through back channels to try to prevent them from being issued. The US and other G7 countries are [reportedly](https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-several-nations-urging-icc-not-to-issue-arrest-warrants-for-israelis/) campaigning to dissuade the ICC from issuing the warrants so as to avoid jeopardizing a peace deal between Israel and Hamas.
As the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily.
The ICC [was founded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and according to the AP [has issued](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-international-criminal-court-hague-palestinians-1f683a6e2e150d91c415eb1d0a19a44d) a total of 42 arrest warrants. Last year the ICC issued arrest warrants for [Vladimir Putin](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and) and one of his government officials stemming from the ICC's investigation into the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.
See Also
Base rate information at Wikipedia: [International Criminal Court investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_investigations)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if before July 1, 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issues a [warrant of arrest](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) for any of the below listed Israeli cabinet members. It will resolve as **No** otherwise.
* Benjamin Netanyahu (Prime Minister)
* Yoav Gallant (Defense Minister)
* Herzi Halevi (IDF Chief of Staff)
Fine Print: * A summons to voluntarily appear will not count, only an arrest warrant will resolve as **Yes**.
* Secret warrants will only resolve as **Yes** if they are publicly and officially disclosed by a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) before July 1, 2024. Anonymous or unsourced reporting that such a warrant has been issued will not be sufficient. If a secret arrest warrant is issued before July 1, 2024, but not publicly known until after that, it will not count.
|
2024-05-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-06-30T22:00:00Z
|
2024-06-30T23:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22949
|
Will there be a named Atlantic storm or hurricane before May 20, 2024?
|
The [National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/) (NHC), a US government agency within the [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Oceanic_and_Atmospheric_Administration), monitors storms occurring in oceanic regions near the US and warns of potentially damaging storms that could make landfall. [According to the NHC](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/):
>A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation.
The NHC classifies four types of tropical cyclones:
>* Tropical Depression: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 38 mph (33 knots) or less.
>* Tropical Storm: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph (34 to 63 knots).
>* Hurricane: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph (64 knots) or higher. In the western North Pacific, hurricanes are called typhoons; similar storms in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean are called cyclones.
>* Major Hurricane: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph (96 knots) or higher, corresponding to a Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Names are typically assigned to tropical cyclones (as well as [sub-tropical storms](https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/tropical_stuff/sub_extra_tropical/subtropical.htm#:~:text=The%20history%20of%20subtropical%20storms%20in%20the%20Atlantic)) when they reach sufficient wind speed to be classified as a tropical storm.
The official Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 to November 30 each year, but [warm ocean temperatures may increase the risk](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/weather/2024/04/25/first-nhc-advisory-issued-atlantic-hurricane-season-starts-june-1/73453395007/) of early tropical storms this season.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after April 29, 2024, and before May 20, 2024, the [National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) reports that it is tracking a named storm or hurricane in the Atlantic region.
Fine Print: * To qualify as a named storm the storm must be referred to by the National Hurricane Center as a named storm following the [standard naming conventions](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). For example, the [2023 entries on this page](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl) "Unnamed Subtropical Storm", "Tropical Depression Twenty-One", and "Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two" would not count as they did not receive actual storm names.
|
2024-04-30T15:00:00Z
|
2024-05-19T22:00:00Z
|
2024-05-20T16:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22915
|
Will the US Supreme Court issue a ruling in the Trump immunity case before May 20, 2024?
|
Donald Trump's criminal case for [election interference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_(election_obstruction_case)) raised a key question regarding [presidential immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidential_immunity_in_the_United_States), namely whether Trump is immune from criminal prosecution for actions taken while president. Trump's legal claims of presidential immunity were [rejected by lower courts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_v._United_States_(2024)#Lower_court_history), but on February 28, 2024, the US Supreme Court [granted Trump's petition](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/trump-v-united-states-3/) to hear the case. How long the Supreme Court takes to announce its decision and the contents of its decision [could impact](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/28/how-the-supreme-court-just-threw-trumps-2024-trial-schedule-into-turmoil-00144043) whether the case is still underway during the presidential election in November.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before May 20, 2024, the Supreme Court of the United States issues a decision on the merits of the Trump immunity case, *[Trump v. United States](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2023/23-939_f2qg.pdf),* and/or remands, vacates, or issues a summary reversal in the case. The outcome of the case is immaterial, so long as a decision is issued.
|
2024-04-30T15:00:00Z
|
2024-05-19T22:00:00Z
|
2024-05-20T15:59:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22914
|
Before May 20, 2024, will it be announced that Minouche Shafik will no longer be President of Columbia University?
|
Large protests [have occurred at a number of US universities](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/live-blog/columbia-protests-live-update-encampment-continue-college-negotiates-p-rcna149111), with participants demonstrating against Israel's invasion of Gaza. Protests at Columbia University have been especially prominent, as protesters set up a large encampment resulting in a police response and [100 arrests](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68893185) made on April 18, 2024. In a [speech at the campus on April 24, 2024](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-speaker-mike-johnson-columbia-university-visit/), US Speaker of the House Mike Johnson called for university president Nemat Shafik to resign due to continued protests and encampments on campus. On April 29, [21 House Democrats](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/house-democrats-columbia-university-resign) sent a letter to Columbia University's board calling for the university to take action to disband the encampment or resign if they are unwilling to act. Also on April 29, Shafik said the University had been [unable to come to an agreement](https://president.columbia.edu/news/statement-columbia-university-president-minouche-shafik-4-29) with student organizers and urged "those in the encampment to voluntarily disperse."
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before May 20, 2024, if it is officially announced that [Minouche Shafik](https://president.columbia.edu/content/about-president-minouche-shafik) will cease to be President of Columbia University, for any reason. The question will still resolve as **Yes** if Shafik stays on as President past May 20, so long as an official announcement that she will cease to be president has been made before that date.
Fine Print: * For an announcement to be considered "official" it must be made by Shafik or Columbia University.
* An announcement of a leave of absence or temporary replacement, for any reason, will also be sufficient to resolve as **Yes**.
|
2024-04-30T15:00:00Z
|
2024-05-19T22:00:00Z
|
2024-05-20T16:01:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22910
|
Will the Georgian Dream party win a majority of seats in Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections?
|
Due to recent [constitutional changes](https://civil.ge/archives/271293), the largely ceremonial role of President of Georgia is no longer determined through direct elections but instead through a 300 member college of electors, of whom half are members of Parliament. No debate on the Parliament floor is permitted prior to the vote.
Therefore, the pivotal factor in determining the president will be the parliamentary elections. The Georgian Dream Party has been a strong force in the country, and it currently has 75 seats, which is 1 short of a majority. Since its founding in 2012, it has won a majority of seats in the 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves Yes if the Election Administration of Georgia or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#whatsort) report that the Georgian Dream Party has won a majority of seats in the Parliament of Georgia in the 2024 parliamentary elections.
The vote is scheduled for October 26, 2024.
Fine Print: The threshold for a majority in the Parliament of Georgia is 76 seats, out of a total of 150. Only the seats won by the Georgian Dream party count for this question, not seats won by any coalition partners.
This question will be annulled if the parliamentary elections are not held or if election results have not been announced before January 1, 2025.
|
2024-05-01T17:00:00Z
|
2024-10-25T16:00:00Z
|
2024-10-27T10:46:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22791
|
Will Kais Saied be re-elected President of Tunisia in 2024?
|
In April 2024, President Kais Saied [announced](https://www.newarab.com/news/tunisias-kais-saied-announces-presidential-re-election-bid) he would be running for re-election in the 2024 election. He is regarded as an authoritarian by groups such as [Human Rights Watch](https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/03/13/tunisia-ticking-authoritarian-checklist) and in 2021 successfully pulled off a [self-coup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Tunisian_self-coup), suspending parliament and ruling the county by decree.
Who Saied's opponents will be this fall is, as of April 2024, indeterminate. Opposition political leaders such as Abir Moussi, who ran against Saied in 2019, have been [arrested](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/4/tunisia-detains-abir-moussi-prominent-opponent-of-president). Lotfi Mraïhi, another electoral opponent from 2019, recently announced his candidacy but also [received](https://news-tunisia.tunisienumerique.com/beginning-of-problems-for-lotfi-mraihi-he-is-summoned-to-aouina-this-monday/) a 6 month suspended jail sentence on January 29, 2024. Rached Ghannouchi, president of the largest opposition party, [was sentenced](https://apnews.com/article/tunisia-politics-ghannouchi-sentenced-saied-ennahdha-08047c2d4ce9035d03ef11695736e309) in February 2024 to three years in prison on allegations of embezzlement.
For further background please see:
[Africa Center for Strategic Studies - Tunisia](https://africacenter.org/spotlight/2024-elections/tunisia/)
[Wikipedia 2024 Tunisian presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tunisian_presidential_election)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if President Kais Saied wins the 2024 election for President of Tunisia, and **No** for any other result, such as him losing the election or a first round of the election not being held before January 1, 2025. Resolution will be based on the results reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
The first round of voting is expected to be held in the latter third of 2024, with a runoff taking place if no candidate receives an absolute majority.
|
2024-05-02T16:00:00Z
|
2024-12-30T17:00:00Z
|
2024-10-07T20:02:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22787
|
Will the San Francisco Bay Area experience an earthquake of at least 3.0 magnitude during the seven-day period ending midday on May 14th, 2024?
|
San Francisco is located on the [San Andreas Fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), an active fault that produces frequent small earthquakes and occasional larger earthquakes. The [Southern California Earthquake Data Center](https://scedc.caltech.edu/about/index.html) tracks [earthquakes occurring in San Francisco](https://scedc.caltech.edu/recent/Maps/San_Francisco.html) over the past seven days, including their magnitudes.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Southern California Earthquake Data Center's [San Francisco Special Map page](https://scedc.caltech.edu/recent/Maps/San_Francisco.html) shows an earthquake of at least 3.0 magnitude having occurred at any time between noon Pacific Time on May 7, 2024, and the same time on May 14, 2024.
If no such earthquake has appeared on the resolution source when it is accessed by Metaculus at approximately noon Pacific Time on May 14, 2024, this question will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: * If the webpage is unavailable at the time of resolution Metaculus may use information shown when accessed when the webpage becomes available again in combination with archives or other previously available data to resolve the question. In the event the necessary data is not accessible before May 17, 2024, the question will be **annulled**.
* If the "update time" on the page has not updated to a time on May 14 or later before May 17, 2024, the question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-04-30T15:00:00Z
|
2024-05-13T16:00:00Z
|
2024-05-15T00:04:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22726
|
On May 18th, will Kyle, Texas set the world record for largest gathering of individuals with the same first name?
|
In March of 2024 the City of Kyle, Texas, [officially announced](https://www.cityofkyle.com/communications/2024-gathering-kyles) its ambition to break the Guinness World Record for the largest gathering of individuals with the same first name through an event named the "Gathering of the Kyles." This announcement follows a previous attempt which saw [1,490](https://www.facebook.com/100068788077296/posts/pfbid02hzzAqM1qw2ePnBgwDYX8zLJfAWtdRu2bphCUf2ZvzSAWjFCEoUwY7pzjtqXYLkaHl/?mibextid=DcJ9fc) Kyles congregating, [falling short](https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/kyle-texas-vies-for-world-record/) of the [current record](https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/largest-same-name-gathering-first-name) held since July 2017, when 2,325 Ivans gathered in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the attempt at the Guiness World Record for largest gathering of individuals with the same first name scheduled for 1 PM on May 18th, 2024, in Kyle, Texas, is reported to have broken the world record. The following resolution sources may be used to resolve this question:
1. Updates to the [Guinness record page](https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/largest-same-name-gathering-first-name)
2. Statements by Guinness World Records
3. Announcements by city officials of the city of Kyle, Texas
4. Announcements by event organizers
Fine Print: * Credible media reports quoting the above sources will also be sufficient. In the event sources conflict or disagree, or Metaculus has reason to doubt the credibility of the initial reporting, it will resolve according to the published information available on May 21, 2024, and using the priority order of the above list of resolution sources (for example, a statement by Guinness World Records will be used if it conflicts with statements made by city officials of Kyle, Texas).
* If on May 21, 2024, Metaculus is unable to determine a clear **Yes** or **No** resolution to the question from the available information, the question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-04-30T15:00:00Z
|
2024-05-17T22:00:00Z
|
2024-05-18T19:35:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22725
|
As of May 21, 2024, will OpenAI report at least 99.9% uptime for ChatGPT for May 2024?
|
Through March of 2024, [ChatGPT's uptime](https://status.openai.com/uptime/tbwycthtqm69) has exceeded 99% for every month except the month of launch, with February at 98.28%. Of those 14 months, four had a ChatGPT uptime of 99.9% or higher.
Software reliability is often measured in "[number of 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_availability#%22Nines%22)"s, i.e. 90%, 99%, 99.9%, 99.99%, etc.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, when accessed by Metaculus on May 21, 2024, at 2 PM ET, [OpenAI's status page](https://status.openai.com/uptime/tbwycthtqm69) for ChatGPT reports an uptime of 99.90% or greater for the month of May 2024. It resolves **No** otherwise.
Forecasters can find the uptime in grey text to the right of the relevant month.
Fine Print: * In the event that, on the resolution date, the status page is not accessible or does not show an uptime percentage for the month of May, this question shall be **annulled**.
* The question will also resolve as **No** if OpenAI discontinues ChatGPT and the status page is not updated to reflect this.
|
2024-04-30T15:00:00Z
|
2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z
|
2024-05-21T18:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22633
|
Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?
|
On April 24, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez [announced contemplating resignation](https://english.elpais.com/spain/2024-04-24/spanish-prime-minister-pedro-sanchez-considers-resigning-due-to-the-unprecedented-attacks-against-his-wife-by-the-right-and-the-far-right.html) following an investigation targeting his wife, Begoña Gómez, prompted by a complaint from the "far-right" group Manos Limpias. Distressed, he penned a letter considering resignation due to these "unprecedented attacks." He kept this decision private, without hosting any crisis meetings.
Sánchez has withdrawn from public engagements until the upcoming Monday, when he plans to address the media and discuss his political future.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 30, 2024, credible sources report that the Prime Minister of Spain, Pedro Sánchez, has announced his resignation. Otherwise, it will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: Sánchez need not actually vacate his office. Only an announcement that he will resign is required.
An announcement that he will not seek reelection does not count.
The announcement must be unequivocal and not an announcement that he is considering resignation or similar.
|
2024-04-25T16:30:00Z
|
2024-04-28T21:59:00Z
|
2024-04-30T06:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22628
|
Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024?
|
Large protests [have occurred at a number of US universities](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/live-blog/columbia-protests-live-update-encampment-continue-college-negotiates-p-rcna149111), with participants demonstrating against Israel's invasion of Gaza. Protests at Columbia University have been especially prominent, as protesters set up a large encampment resulting in a police response and [100 arrests](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68893185) made on April 18, 2024. In a [speech at the campus on April 24, 2024](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-speaker-mike-johnson-columbia-university-visit/), US Speaker of the House Mike Johnson called for university president Nemat Shafik to resign due to continued protests and encampments on campus.
The university has been negotiating with student protesters, [saying on April 24](https://communications.news.columbia.edu/news/campus-updates) that progress had been made and that students had committed to removing a "significant number of tents". Shafik has also faces a [potential censure](https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/columbia-yale-student-protests-4-23-24/h_5ad891938bdb320617ece840a6000bf8) by the University Senate. While a censure would be primarily symbolic, such a censure would be noteworthy as the senate's [111 member body includes](https://senate.columbia.edu/content/111-university-senators-20-schools) 76 members of the faculty and administration compared to only 25 current students. The senate's monthly meeting is [scheduled for April 26](https://events.columbia.edu/cal/event/eventView.do?b=de&calPath=%2Fpublic%2Fcals%2FMainCal&guid=CAL-00bbdb7c-888a9fcc-0188-8cd481cd-00004a39events%40columbia.edu&recurrenceId=).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on or before April 26, 2024, credible sources report that the Columbia University Senate has voted to censure university president Nemat Shafik.
|
2024-04-25T00:00:00Z
|
2024-04-26T17:05:00Z
|
2024-04-27T06:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22576
|
Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?
|
[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). Ukraine has [reportedly said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aims to capture the city by May 9.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, when accessed by Metaculus on June 1, 2024, the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) shows the coordinates 48°35'13.7"N 37°50'02.1"E as under any of the following categories:
- Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine
- Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours
- Assessed Russian Control
- Claimed Russian Territory in Ukraine
- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Russian control of the location
The question will resolve as **No** if the location is not assessed to be in any of the categories indicating Russian control, which includes but is not limited to:
- Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours
- Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives
- Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare
- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Ukrainian control of the location or a lack of Russian control of the location
Fine Print: * The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.
* Forecasters can see the exact location of the coordinates by viewing the [ISW Map](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap), clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for "48°35'13.7"N 37°50'02.1"E".
|
2024-04-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-05-31T22:00:00Z
|
2024-06-01T19:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
End of preview. Expand
in Data Studio
Dataset of questions scraped from Metaculus and Manifold Markets.
From 2024/3/01 - 2025/3/10
closed_date is always the scheduled close date, even if the real question/market closed early. This means that both open_date and close_date are safe to expose to the model.
Filtering was done to remove Manifold markets under the 75th percentile volume or # of unique traders, as well as meta or joke markets.
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