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[Kansas City, Missouri] GK Callahan and Laura White have become fast friends, they met at an art class for the blind and visually impaired. GK was about to start a large-scale community art project, and he needed a partner, someone who understood and<|fim_middle|>.
They both hope the mural will become a beacon of education for the greater KC community. The Beaded Mural illustrates how art made by people with disabilities does not remain at the level of crafts or outsider art. The Beaded Quilt-Kansas City will be created as a contemporary public art installation and as a statement about what one with disabilities can accomplish. | reflected the community, Laura was just that person. Laura who is an artist herself has worked as a graphic designer and taught at both the Kansas State School for the Blind and Children's center of visually impaired, unbeknownst to GK at the time she was in need of a project. Laura had left teaching and taken some time off to deal with both her vision and hearing loss; it was a perfect pairing…Together they have begun the ambitious journey to create the Kansas City Beaded Quilt mural.
This mural will be the second community-based mural made out of beads Callahan has created with the blind and visual impaired community. The first Beaded Quilt Mural is located in San Francisco, CA, at the LightHouse for the Blind and Visually Impaired, and was installed June 2011. Callahan helped created the 8 x 8-foot mural out of 150,000 colored fuse beads, which took the community over a year and a half to create.
Callahan and White plan on making the KC Beaded Quilt mural MUCH larger than the first; their plan is to make a 10 x 9-foot mural using roughly 450,000 beads. Not only will this process impact more blind community members than in San Francisco, because they are involving multiple nonprofits, they also hope the artwork and its message will also reach a much broader audience by the sheer size and number of beads it will take to complete.
The nonprofits involved are Alphapointe, Kansas State School for the Blind, and The Whole Person, they are also working with several apartment complexes that house folks with visual impairments.
For this project, the beading process is as important and significant as the end product; the time spent in what they are calling "beading circles" is a great form of art therapy, storytelling, and communing in a group setting. Callahan has found that making the mural echoes the relationship to the communal tradition of American quilt making. At the same time, the making process helps to fine-tune the makers' manual dexterity, improve their hand-eye coordination, memory, and their color and shape recognition particularly in those who are visually impaired. The mural will be made up of a textural beaded grid of squares which symbolically highlights the colorfulness and diversity of the blind community, while demonstrating their togetherness to work on such a large project over a lengthy span of time. Callahan and White are estimating it will take around two years to complete; they are a good six months into the project | 524 |
Why did some planets become habitable and others did not?
UH News » Research » Why did some planets…
Solar wind<|fim_middle|> research develops via Hawaiʻi landscape
next post: Drone tech, cultural film directing among featured undergraduate projects | (white) magnetizes asteroid (red) in early solar system. (Photo credit: Michael Osadciw, UR)
In a paper published in Nature Communications Earth and Environment, researchers, including Alexander Krot at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), used paleomagnetic (Earth's magnetic field in rocks, sediment or archeological materials) records to determine when carbonaceous chondrite asteroids, some of which are rich in water and organics, first arrived in the inner solar system.
The research helps inform scientists about the early origins of the solar system and why some planets, such as Earth, became habitable and were able to sustain conditions conducive for life, while other planets, such as Mars, did not. The research also gives scientists data that can be applied to the discovery of new exoplanets, planets that orbit stars outside of the solar system and the search for other habitable planets.
Solving a paradox using a meteorite in Mexico
Some meteorites are pieces of debris from outer space objects such as asteroids. After breaking apart from their "parent bodies," these pieces are able to survive passing through the atmosphere and eventually hit the surface of a planet or moon.
Studying the magnetization of meteorites can give researchers a better idea of when the objects formed and where they were located early in the solar system relative to the Sun.
The Allende meteorite is the largest carbonaceous chondrite on Earth and contains pebble-sized objects—calcium-aluminum inclusions—that are thought to be the first solids formed in the solar system. New experiments by University of Rochester graduate student Tim O'Brien, the first author of the paper, found that magnetic signals in the meteorite were produced during metasomatic alteration experienced by the parent asteroid.
"The metasomatic alteration recorded by Allende resulted from water and carbon dioxide-rich fluid-rock interaction at about 300–400 degrees Celsius about 3 million–4 million years after formation of the solar system and is quite unique among carbonaceous chondrites," said Krot.
Having solved this paradox, O'Brien was able to identify meteorites with other minerals that could faithfully record early solar system magnetizations.
Determining Jupiter's role in asteroid migration
John Tarduno, co-author and lead professor at the University of Rochester's magnetics group, combined this work with theoretical work and computer simulations. The team determined that solar winds draped around early solar system bodies and it was this solar wind that magnetized the bodies; and that the parent asteroids from which carbonaceous chondrite meteorites broke off arrived in the Asteroid Belt from the outer solar system about 4,562 million years ago, within the first five million years of solar system history.
The analyses and modeling offer more support for the idea that the inner and outer solar system asteroids (non-carbonaceous and carbonaceous, respectively) were separated by the gravitational forces of the giant planet Jupiter, whose subsequent migration then mixed the two asteroid groups.
"This early motion of carbonaceous chondrite asteroids sets the stage for further scattering of water-rich bodies—potentially to Earth—later in the development of the solar system, and it may be a pattern common to exoplanet systems," said Tarduno.
For more see SOEST's website.
Ultraviolet shines light on origins of our solar system
Origins of Earth's water could be solved in space…
$5M award aids search for a 'recipe' for…
Manoa researchpublicationSchool of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyspaceUH Manoa
previous post: Human, environmental health | 746 |
Displaying items by tag: Great Expectations
Blu-ray & DVD News – Nighthawks, Manhunter: CE & MST3K: Volume II, plus Tim Salmons' new podcast
[Editor's Note: Be sure to follow us<|fim_middle|> the visuals I've seen so far, this show should blow the doors off Blu-ray. There's no street date yet, but we would imagine Fox will announce the title in the next month or two, timed for release shortly after the series wraps up its broadcast run. [Read on here...]
Fargo 4K
Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey
Cosmos: A Personal Journey
Warehouse 13: The Complete Series
Evilspeak
Forgetting the Girl
Death Kiss
Brazilian Western
Mr Jones | on Twitter @thedigitalbits @BillHuntBits and on Facebook here and here.]
Boy, no sooner did we file our early update today, then the good folks at Shout! Factory and Scream announced a few great new catalog Blu-ray release, including a pair of titles we're very excited for! [Read on here…]
Podcast Salmonella
Manhunter: Collector's Edition
MST3K: Volume II
Great Expectations, Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey, Warehouse 13: The Complete Series & more
We've got more release news for you today...
First, 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment will release Mike Newell's Great Expectations on Blu-ray and DVD on 4/15. Extras will include a piece on the premiere and the film's trailer.
Speaking of Fox, we've officially confirmed that TCFHE is working on a Blu-ray and DVD release of the new Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey science TV series, hosted by our favorite astrophysicist, Neil deGrasse Tyson. Inspired by Carl Sagan's original Cosmos: A Personal Voyage from the 1980s (see our DVD review here), the new 13-episode sequel premieres this coming Sunday on Fox, NatGeo and a whole host of related cable channels. You can find all the details here. From | 282 |
Carson Shriver shows versatility in Clay-Battelle's 50-18 win over Beallsville (Ohio)
Sep. 18—BLACKSVILLE — Carson Shriver had a double-triple on Friday, and had he been asked to run a few more routes in the passing game, the junior just may have pulled off what may be the rarest feat in football.
As it was, Shriver passed for 119 yards and two touchdowns and also added 110 yards rushing and another score to lead Clay-Battelle past Beallsville (Ohio), 50-18.
A triple-triple—we're not exactly sure what the official name would be—would see a player pass, rush and receive for 100 yards in the<|fim_middle|> blocking on the edge are doing a much better job. We do have a few injuries that are cutting into our depth, but I like how other guys have begun to fill in some of the holes.»
Beallsville 0 8 0 10—18 Clay-Battelle 22 21 7 0—50 SCORING SUMMARY C-B—Carson Shriver 13 run (Matt Gadd pass from Shriver)
C-B—Zach Hall 4 pass from Drew Boczek (Drew Mercer kick)
C-B—Boczek 20 pass from Shriver (Mercer kick)
B—Brandon Louden 44 run (Louden run)
C-B—Brady Ammons 1 run (Mercerk kick)
C-B—Seth Sheets 2 run (Mercerk kicK)
C-B—Boczek 14 run (Mercer kick)
B—safety, Gunner Gum tackled in end zone B—Louden 1 run (Louden run)
INDIVIDUAL STATISTICS RUSHING: Clay-Battelle—Shriver 11-110 TD, Boczek 3-27 TD, Ammons 6-42 TD, Maddox Shriver 3-39, Sheets 1-2 TD, Jacob Shriver 7-(-4), Gum 2-(-8), Maverick Gum 1-(-1), Team 3-(-3). Beallsville—Louden 18-124 2 TD, Garrett Perkins 6-87, Bradley Moats 4-13, Conner Hagen 1-4, Adam Gouveia 1-3.
PASSING: Clay-Battelle—Shriver 4-4 119 2 TD, Boczek 3-5 64 TD. Beallsville—Louden 2-10 3.
RECEIVING: Clay-Battelle—Boczek 4-119 2 TD, Shriver 1-34, Hall 1-4 TD, Mason Chisler 1-26. Beallsville—Gouveia 1-6, Hagen 1-(-3).
TWEET @bigjax3211 | same game.
Shriver caught just one pass, but it went for 34 yards against the Blue Devils (1-3).
«Is it possible, yeah, I think it can be done, » Shriver said. «That would be pretty awesome.»
And maybe never done before. A Google search for the feat brought up no examples, but did mention former NFL stars Priest Holmes and Walter Payton had two games in which they recorded 100 yards rushing and receiving in the same game.
But, Payton, as great as he was, was never asked to line up under center and run a roll-out pass.
That's the uniqueness behind the Cee-Bees offense, one that had 322 total yards and a 43-8 lead at halftime.
Shriver's versatility comes because C-B (3-1) also has the same versatility in junior Drew Boczek, who had an equally impressive night.
Boczek passed for 64 yards and a touchdown, rushed for 27 yards and a score and also caught four passes for 119 yards and two touchdowns.
They both play quarterback, but have their own strengths that allows C-B head coach Ryan Wilson to get creative.
«We're obviously blessed to have two great athletes back there, » Wilson said. «The thing about it is Drew is still learning our system a little bit. People may think he's got it all down. Once he does, it can only make us better. Right now, he's just an athlete making plays back there for us.»
Shriver called themselves «the dynamic duo, » although in this case both he and Boczek may be Batman.
«Drew is the better passer, but he can also make plays running and catching, » Shriver said. «I'd say I'm more of the runner.
«The best part about it is we can both do a lot of good things and we keep defenses guessing. I mean, there's no way defenses are going to know if we're running or throwing or which one of us may go out for a pass.»
Boczek was the receiver on Friday, and if it sounds weird for a coach to ask his passer to go out and catch passes, the Cee-Bees have the potential to get even more unconventional.
«We've got stuff where we can both line up as the quarterback, » Shriver said. «Defenses wouldn't know which one of us is going to get the snap.»
Shriver was the runner. His 110 yards on the ground all came in the first half. He then added a 73-yard bomb to Boczek with 3:28 left in the third quarter to cap the night.
Brady Ammons added 42 yards rushing and a TD for the Cee-Bees, who finished with 399 yards of offense while playing mostly JV players by the fourth quarter.
Beallsville quarterback Brandon Louden had 124 yards rushing and two touchdowns to lead the Blue Devils.
«I really like our overall improvement, » Wilson said. «I go back and watch us during the first week to now, I see our guys on the outside becoming much better tacklers on defense and our guys | 677 |
Paul Stanley Has 'Too Much Pride' For Original KISS Reunion
. (Classic Rock) Paul Stanley has likened playing live with former KISS members Peter Criss and Ace Frehley to "spending a night with your ex wife." The frontman insists there was no way he was going to perform with the pair at last year's Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame induction.
Stanley tells News.com.au: "I enjoyed the Hall Of Fame in a twisted way. It was a terrific night but there was no way I was going to play with them. Frankly, I have too much pride in<|fim_middle|>KISS Music, DVDs, Books and more
KISS T-shirts and Posters | what I do than to create a moment of nostalgia for someone else. To get on stage with Ace and Peter was an interesting, surreal moment - but nothing I wanted to prolong.
"Someone asked me before the Hall Of Fame, 'Couldn't you just play with the original lineup for one night?' I said, 'How about spending a night with your ex wife? What's the point?'"
Stanley, 63, admits he's had to face the issue of his voice changing over the years, making it more difficult to perform tracks he first sang in the 1970s. Read what he had to say about that here.
| 132 |
\section{Introduction}
\IEEEPARstart{N}{onlinear} system identification is now a mature field. For the last three decades,
much attention has been paid to the problem of building nonlinear models from data
\cite{isermann2010identification,billings2013nonlinear,nelles2013nonlinear,schoukens2019}.
A natural next step is the use of such identified models in more specific applications, such as
compensation and control, which is the aim of this work.
The presence of nonlinear effects can impose significant performance limitations in a wide range of
applications, such as actuators \cite{Rakotondrabe2011,li2018position}, sensors \cite{cao2018temperature},
pH neutralization \cite{hong1996control}, and power systems \cite{singh2007neural}, among others
\cite{chernous2008control,morris2012,castillo2012soft}. A natural solution would be to mitigate such
effects by making the systems more linear -- by using a compensator -- and, consequently, more amenable to control.
A dynamical model with simple structure is quite useful to design a compensator.
Compensation approaches aim to design a compensation input that reduces nonlinearity
allowing for more accurate control and tracking. Many of these approaches start with an
appropriate model that represents the most fundamental aspects of the system, especially the static
nonlinearity \cite{agu_eal/02iee}. In the literature, there
is a vast number of works devoted to the modeling and compensation for nonlinear systems ranging from those based
on phenomenological models \cite{Rakotondrabe2011,Lin_etal2013, liu2011intrachannel} to those that use
computational intelligence \cite{Quaranta_etal2020} such as Radial Basis Functions (RBFs)
\cite{cao2018temperature,zhou2020dynamic,li2018position} and Neural Networks (NNs) \cite{singh2007neural,zhang2010neural,guo2018composite,meng2020neural},
among others.
The identification of phenomenological models tends to be a challenging task that requires sophisticated
algorithms based often on heuristics techniques. Therefore, satisfactory results depend largely on the proper design
of these algorithms, including the tuning of meta-parameters, which is usually an empiric task \cite{Quaranta_etal2020}.
In addition, the achievement of compensators for such models is not usually simple or even possible, because it depends
on the analytical inversion of these models. For methods based on universal approximation of functions, such as RBFs and NNs,
it is more difficult to provide a physics-based interpretation \cite{Quaranta_etal2020}. A particular type of neural network
that has been often used in the literature for identification and compensation of nonlinear systems is the Nonlinear
AutoRegressive with eXogenous inputs Neural Networks, i.e., NARX NNs \cite{zhang2010neural,meng2020neural}.
Despite the benefits of NARX NNs due to the fair generality presented by NARX structures, these frameworks are
based on a black-box philosophy that complicates the use of constraints related to the structure or parameters,
which can be elegantly accommodated in gray-box approaches \cite{Abreu_etal2020}. Also, their compensators present low or no degree of interpretability which limits the analysis of these types of models and their compensators.
An alternative framework is based on NARX polynomial models, adopted in this paper. For this class of models,
if the structure is carefully chosen \cite{bil_eal/89,agu_bil/94b,pir_spi/03}, besides being quite general \cite{leo_bil/85a},
such models can encode nonlinear information in a simple and recognizable way \cite{agu_eal/02iee,Martins_Aguirre2016}, which
allows using them to derive explicitly compensation laws \cite{Abreu_etal2020}. In addition, NARX polynomials are amenable to
gray-box techniques \cite{Aguirre_2019} that allow the encoding relevant features from nonlinear systems, which is usually not
possible with purely black-box strategies. From now on, the term NARX models must be understood strictly as NARX polynomial
models, and form the basis of this work. Although these models can represent a variety of phenomena, few works
in the literature apply NARX polynomials for compensation since the most common applications take NARX NNs as a basis.
In the context of hysteresis compensation, \cite{Lacerda_etal2019} has presented a strategy based on an analytical
inversion of NARX models. For this purpose, somewhat restrictive assumptions must be satisfied by the model structure.
Also, as pointed out in \cite{Abreu_etal2020}, the
methodology developed by \cite{Lacerda_etal2019} may suffer from singularity problems when the velocity variable equals zero.
Two ways to design compensators have been presented in \cite{Abreu_etal2020}:
the first one is similar to what was done in \cite{Lacerda_etal2019} and the second seeks compensators directly
from the data. Both strategies have overcome the singularity problem because the restrictions on the models' structure prevent a division by the velocity variable in the compensator. However, as the former also needs to isolate
the input explicitly, such a method uses with more specific structures than those used in the present paper.
The second strategy requires careful data processing, such as filtering the output signals. Also, some algebraic
tricks are required to overcome potential causality problems \cite{Abreu_etal2020}.
The main contributions of this work are the proposed approaches to find compensation inputs iteratively for nonlinear
systems in static and dynamical contexts through identified NARX models. Besides, an adaptation of the dynamical strategy
is presented for hysteretic systems. In both strategies, an algebraic polynomial of the compensation input is formulated,
which is achieved by manipulating the identified model. Thus, the compensation input signal is calculated iteratively,
which confers an adaptive feature to the approaches. The proposed compensators are compared with one well-established
\cite{Rakotondrabe2011} and two recent \cite{Abreu_etal2020} ones. The comparison is not performed with \cite{Lacerda_etal2019} due to the similarity with the first method of \cite{Abreu_etal2020}.
This work is organized as follows. In Section~\ref{back} background is provided. The statement of the compensation problem is
introduced in Sec.~\ref{sp}. Section \ref{Methodology} presents the compensation strategy proposed and formulated for static
(\ref{sub_comp_stat}), dynamical (\ref{sub_comp_dyn}) and adapted specifically for hysteresis (\ref{sub_comp_hys}) contexts. Numerical and experimental results are discussed in Sec.~\ref{NumericalExamples}. Finally, concluding remarks are given in Sec.~\ref{Conclusion}.
\vspace{-0.4cm}
\section{Background}\label{back}
A NARX (Nonlinear Autoregressive model with eXogenous inputs) polynomial model
${\cal M}$ for a single-input single-output system is given by \cite{leo_bil/85a}:
\begin{eqnarray}
\label{eq_model}
y(k) {=} f^\ell\big(y(k{-}1), \ldots ,y(k{-}n_y),u(k{-}\tau_{\rm d}), \ldots ,u(k{-}n_u)\big) \nonumber \\
{+}e(k),
\end{eqnarray}
\noindent
where $u(k),\,y(k) \in \mathbb{R}$ are respectively the input and output signals sampled at instant
$k \in \mathbb{N}$, and $f^\ell(\cdot)$ is a nonlinear polynomial function with degree
$\ell \in \mathbb{N}^+$. $n_u,\,n_y \in \mathbb{N}^+$ are the maximum lags for $u$ and $y$,
respectively, $\tau_{\rm d} \in \mathbb{N}^+$ is the pure time delay, and $e(k)$ accounts for the
uncertainties and possible noise.
Model (\ref{eq_model}) is a parsimonious polynomial model in the sense that it contains
only a small group of regressors chosen from an usually large set of candidate regressors
by means of some structure selection procedure \cite{bil_eal/89,agu_bil/94b,pir_spi/03,fal_eal/15,ret_agu/19}.
Each regressor of ${\cal M}$, which can be any linear and nonlinear combination up to degree
$\ell$, is multiplied by a constant parameter, indicated by $\theta_i$. Hence,
a NARX polynomial model is linear-in-the-parameters and classic least squares (LS) procedures
can be used \cite{Norton_1986}. In the presence of noise, however, it is common to add moving average (MA)
terms to the model, which will no longer be linear-in-the-parameters. Fortunately, extended least
squares estimators (ELS) can be used to circumvent noise-induced bias \cite{Ljung_1987,bil_eal/89}.
\subsection{Steady-state analysis}\label{sub_steady_state_analysis}
The steady-state relation of model (\ref{eq_model}) is obtained by taking
$u(k)=\bar{u}$ and $y(k)=\bar{y}, ~\forall k$, thus yielding:
\begin{equation}
\bar{\cal M}: ~ \bar{y} = \bar{f}^{\ell}(\bar{u},\bar{y}),
\nonumber
\end{equation}
\noindent
which, {\it for a known value of $\bar{u}$}, can be rewritten as:
\begin{equation}
\label{eq_model_stat}
c_{y,\,\ell_y}(\bar{u})\bar{y}^{\ell_y}+c_{y,\,\ell_y{-}1}(\bar{u})\bar{y}^{\ell_y{-}1}+\ldots+c_{y,1}(\bar{u})\bar{y}+ c_{y,0}(\bar{u}) = 0,
\end{equation}
\noindent
where $1 \leq \ell_y \leq \ell$ is the degree of the static model $\bar{\cal M}$, whose coefficients
$c_{y,i},~i=0,\ldots,\ell_y$ usually depend on $\bar{u}$. Solving (\ref{eq_model_stat}) for the unknown
$\bar{y}$ is achieved by finding the $\ell_y$ roots of this polynomial. The roots of (\ref{eq_model_stat})
will yield the fixed points of model (\ref{eq_model}) for $\bar{u}$, whose definition is presented below.
\begin{defin}{\rm(Fixed points \cite{Aguirre_Mendes1996})}.
\label{Definition:Fixed_Points}
The steady-state analysis of model (\ref{eq_model}) is computed by taking $y(k){=}\bar{y},\,\forall k$
and $u(k){=}\bar{u},\,\forall k$, yielding $\bar{y} = \bar{f}^{\ell}(\bar{y},\bar{u})$, whose
solution/root(s) $\bar{y}$ (\ref{eq_model_stat}) for a given constant value of input $\bar{u}$
is defined as the fixed point(s), or equilibria, of model (\ref{eq_model}) for $\bar{u}$.
\end{defin}
The condition for (local) stability of the fixed points is obtained by finding the eigenvalues
of the Jacobian matrix of model $\cal M$ (\ref{eq_model}) evaluated at each fixed point, as follows:
\begin{equation}
\label{eq_stab_fix_point}
\bigg|{\rm{eig}} \left(\frac{\partial f^{\ell}}{\partial \bm{y}} \Big|_{\bar{u},\bar{y}} \right) \bigg| < 1,
\end{equation}
\noindent
where $\bm{y}=[y(k-1)\, \ldots y(k-n_y)]^T$, $T$ is the transpose and ${\rm eig}(\cdot)$ indicates the
eigenvalues.
\begin{example}\label{ex_1}
Consider model ${\cal M}$ given by:
%
\begin{eqnarray}
\label{Eq:Example_Model_Stat}
y(k) & {=} & \hat{\theta}_1y(k-1)+\hat{\theta}_2u(k-1)+\hat{\theta}_3u(k-1)u(k-2) \nonumber \\
& {~} & +\hat{\theta}_4u(k-1)^2+\hat{\theta}_5u(k-1)^3,
\end{eqnarray}
\noindent
for which $\tau_{\rm d} {=} 1$, $n_y{=}1$, $n_u{=}2$, and $\ell{=}3$. Its static form $\bar{\cal M}$ is obtained taking
$u(k-1){=}u(k-2){=}\bar{u}$ and $y(k-1){=}y(k){=}\bar{y}$, such that:
%
\begin{equation}\label{eq_model_ss}
\bar{y} = \hat{\theta}_1\bar{y} +\hat{\theta}_2 \bar{u}+\hat{\theta}_3\bar{u}^2 +\hat{\theta}_4\bar{u}^2+\hat{\theta}_5\bar{u}^3,
\end{equation}
\noindent
which can be written in the format of (\ref{eq_model_stat}) as:
%
\begin{equation}
0 = \underbrace{\big[\hat{\theta}_1-1\big]}_{c_{y,1}}\bar{y} + \underbrace{\hat{\theta}_5\bar{u}^3 +\big[\hat{\theta}_3+\hat{\theta}_4\big]\bar{u}^2 + \hat{\theta}_2 \bar{u}}_{c_{y,0}(\bar{u})}.
\end{equation}
\noindent
Hence, model (\ref{Eq:Example_Model_Stat}) only has one fixed point for each value of $\bar{u}$, given by:
%
\begin{equation}
\label{fp1}
\bar{y} = -\dfrac{c_{y,0}(\bar{u})}{c_{y,1}} = \dfrac{\hat{\theta}_5\bar{u}^3+\big[\hat{\theta}_3+\hat{\theta}_4\big]\bar{u}^2+\hat{\theta}_2\bar{u}}{1-\hat{\theta}_1}.
\end{equation}
\noindent
For the first-order model (\ref{Eq:Example_Model_Stat}),
the Jacobian ``matrix'' will be a scalar and condition (\ref{eq_stab_fix_point})
becomes:
%
\begin{eqnarray}
\label{Eq:example1}
\left| \frac{\partial f^{\ell}}{\partial y(k-1)} \Big|_{\bar{u},\bar{y}} \right| & < & 1, \nonumber \\
\left|\hat{\theta}_1 \Big|_{\bar{u},\bar{y}} \right| & < & 1, \nonumber \\
-1 ~<~ \hat{\theta}_1 & < & 1.
\end{eqnarray}
\noindent
Therefore, if (\ref{Eq:example1}) is satisfied, then (\ref{fp1}) is a stable fixed point.
\flushright{$\square$}
\end{example}
\section{Statement of the Problem}
\label{sp}
It is assumed that a NARX model $\cal{M}$ (\ref{eq_model}) is available for a
given nonlinear dynamical system $\cal{S}$, estimated
from input-output data $Z^N=\{u(k),\,y_{\rm s}(k)\}_{k=1}^N$ collected from $\cal{S}$.
Based on ${\cal M}$, the aim is to design a compensator ${\cal M}_r$ such that
the open-loop combination of ${\cal M}_r$ followed by
$\cal{S}$ (see Fig.\,\ref{block_diagram}) is more linear and therefore more amenable
for control. Specifically, ${\cal M}_r$ should compensate the nonlinearity in $\cal{S}$.
\begin{figure}[h
\centering{
\centering
\includegraphics[width=1\columnwidth]{fig_1.pdf}
\vspace{-0.8cm}
\caption{Block diagram of the compensated system.}
\label{block_diagram}
}
\end{figure}
Mathematically, we require that the reference $r(k)$ and output $y_{\rm c}(k)$ of the
compensated system should be closer than the input $u(k)$ and output $y_{\rm s}(k)$
of the uncompensated system. Hence $J[r(k),\,y_{\rm c}(k)]<J[u(k),\,y_{\rm s}(k)]$,
where $J$ is some proximity cost function, like the mean squared value.
\section{Methodology}
\label{Methodology}
This section presents the methodology developed to design compensators based on
NARX polynomial models. First, in Sec.\,\ref{sub_comp_stat}, we present the static
compensation that is simpler to understand and serves as a basis for the main result,
which is the dynamical compensation detailed in Sec.\,\ref{sub_comp_dyn}. In the sequel,
this approach is applied to systems with hysteresis in Sec.\,\ref{sub_comp_hys}.
The identification of model ${\cal M}$ is not described in this paper. The interested
reader is referred to \cite{Aguirre_2019}, and references therein.
\subsection{Static Compensation}
\label{sub_comp_stat}
It is assumed that the input and output signals are bounded, thus
$u(k) \in [u_{\rm min},\, u_{\rm max}], \forall k$ and $y_{\rm s}(k) \in [y_{{\rm min}},\, y_{{\rm max}}], \forall k$.
As for model $\cal{M}$(\ref{eq_model}), the following assumptions will be needed:
\begin{assump}
\label{Assump1}
$\cal{M}$ is valid, that is, $y(k) \approx y_{\rm s}(k)$ for the same input.
\end{assump}
\begin{assump}
\label{Assump2}
For any $\bar{u} \in [u_{\rm min},u_{\rm max}]$, the model
${\cal M}$ has at least one local stable fixed point such that
$\bar{y} \in [y_{\rm min}, y_{\rm max}]$.
\end{assump}
In order to obtain a static compensator $\bar{\cal M}_r$, an {\it inverse problem} in steady-state has to be solved.
In other words, we seek the system input values $\bar{m}$ that will drive the output to the reference at steady-state,
$\bar{y} \approx \bar{r}$. Considering the model $\cal{M}$ expressed as $\bar{y} = \bar{f}^{\ell}(\bar{u},\bar{y})$,
$\bar{y}$ is replaced by $\bar{r}$ and $\bar{u}$ by $\bar{m}$ so that $\bar{\cal M}_r$ is $\bar{r} = \bar{f}^{\ell}(\bar{m},\bar{r})$.
Consequently, it is possible to rewrite (\ref{eq_model_stat}) by grouping its terms in such a way that it yields a
polynomial in the unknown variable $\bar{m}$, $\cal {\bar M}_{\rm r}$:
\begin{eqnarray}
\label{eq_comp_stat}
c_{m,\,\ell_m}({\bar{r}}){\bar{m}}^{\ell_m} {+} c_{m,\,\ell_m{-}1}({\bar{r}}){\bar{m}}^{\ell_m{-}1}{+} \ldots{+}c_{m,\,1}({\bar{r}})\bar{m}\nonumber \\
{+} c_{m,\,0}({\bar{r}}) {=} 0.
\end{eqnarray}
Although each of the $\ell_m$ roots of (\ref{eq_comp_stat}) is a solution to the inverse problem,
not all are appropriate to be used in practice. For this reason, two constraints are considered. The used root:
\begin{cons}
\label{c1}
must be real, ${m} \in \mathbb{R}$; and
\end{cons}
\begin{cons}
\label{c2}
must be within the data range, namely ${m} \in [u_{\rm min},\, u_{\rm max}]$.
\end{cons}
Assumption\,\ref{Assump2} ensures that any root $\bar{m}$ (\ref{eq_comp_stat}) that satisfies the above
constrains will drive the system to a stable fixed point.
Also, because of Assumption~\ref{Assump1}, such a steady-state will satisfy $\bar{y}_{\rm c} \approx {\bar{r}}$.
The algebraic procedure is illustrated below with a simple example. Then, in the sequel, a dynamical version of
this procedure will be discussed in Sec.\,\ref{sub_comp_dyn}.
\begin{example}\label{ex_3}
For the model in Example\,\ref{ex_1}, it was seen that:
%
\begin{equation*}
\bar{y} = \hat{\theta}_1\bar{y} +\hat{\theta}_2 \bar{u}+\hat{\theta}_3\bar{u}^2 +\hat{\theta}_4\bar{u}^2+\hat{\theta}_5\bar{u}^3,
\end{equation*}
\noindent
which can be written in the format of (\ref{eq_comp_stat}) as:
\begin{eqnarray}
\label{pol_ex3}
\!\!\!\!\!\!\bar{r} & {=} & \hat{\theta}_1\bar{r} +\hat{\theta}_2 \bar{m}+\hat{\theta}_3\bar{m}^2 +\hat{\theta}_4\bar{m}^2+\hat{\theta}_5\bar{m}^3, \nonumber \\
\!\!\!\!\!\!0 & {=} & \underbrace{\hat{\theta}_5}_{c_{m,3}}\bar{m}^3 +\underbrace{\big[\hat{\theta}_3+\hat{\theta}_4\big]}_{c_{m,2}}\bar{m}^2 + \underbrace{\hat{\theta}_2}_{c_{m,1}}\bar{m} +\underbrace{\big[\hat{\theta}_1\bar{r}-\bar{r}\big]}_{c_{m,0}(\bar{r})}.
\end{eqnarray}
\noindent
Hence, for a given reference value $\bar{r}$, the roots of (\ref{pol_ex3}) provide potential
compensation inputs that in steady-state would drive the system to the target. A practical problem
is to decide which of the three roots in this example should be used. If there is only one real root,
then it is chosen as the compensation input. However, if there are three real roots, a more general
decision-making process is required. \hfill $\square$
\end{example}
For the sake of clarity, the roots of \eqref{eq_comp_stat} will be placed in a
vector $\bm{\bar{m}}(\bar{r}) \triangleq [\bar{m}_{1}~\cdots~\bar{m}_{\ell_m}]^T$.
Although the $\ell_m$ values of $\bar{m}$ are solutions to the
inverse problem, only those that satisfy C\ref{c1} and C\ref{c2} should be considered as potential
compensation inputs. This reasoning underlies the main algorithm that will be used in the dynamical
context. The practical issue of {\it how}\, to choose from two potential inputs that satisfy
C\ref{c1} and C\ref{c2} will be discussed in the dynamical setting below.
\subsection{Dynamical Compensation}
\label{sub_comp_dyn}
The main difference between the framework developed in this subsection and the basis laid down
in the previous one is that here the reference is a sequence of values $r(k)$, and not a
constant value $\bar{r}$. The same is true for the compensation input $m(k)$ and the compensated
output $y_{\rm c}(k)$.
The aim now is to achieve $y(k) \approx r(k)$ by solving
an inverse problem dynamically. Replacing variables as in Sec.\,\ref{sub_comp_stat} and
omitting the noise term, (\ref{eq_model}) can be written as:
\begin{equation}
r(k) {=} f^\ell\big(r(k-1), \ldots , r(k-n_y), m(k-\tau_{\rm d}), \ldots , m(k-n_u)\big). \nonumber
\end{equation}
As will become clear, it is convenient to introduce the time-shift $k \leftarrow k+\tau_{\rm d}$ --
meaning that $k$ will be replaced with $k+\tau_{\rm d}$ --
hence the last equation becomes:
\begin{eqnarray}
\label{eq_compensator_1}
r(k{+}\tau_{\rm d}) &{=}& f^\ell\big(r(k{+}\tau_{\rm d}{-}1),\ldots,r(k{+}\tau_{\rm d}{-}n_y), \nonumber \\
&~& \hspace{1.4cm} m(k),\ldots, m(k{+}\tau_{\rm d}{-}n_u)\big).
\end{eqnarray}
The aim is to find $m(k)$ that will drive the system to the desired target $r(k)$.
Consequently, as before, (\ref{eq_compensator_1}) will be expressed in terms of a
polynomial in the unknown $m(k)$ as:
\begin{eqnarray}
\label{eq_compensator_2}
0 {=} c_{{\ell_m}}(k)m(k)^{\ell_{m}} {+} c_{{\ell_m{-}1}}(k)m(k)^{\ell_m{-}1} +\ldots \!\!&\!\!+\!\!&\!\! c_{1}(k)m(k) \nonumber \\
\!\!&\!\!+\!\!&\!\! c_{0}(k),
\end{eqnarray}
\noindent
where the time-varying coefficients $c_{j}(k)$, $j = 0,\ldots,\ell_m$, can depend on past values of $m$ up to time $k-1$,
and on past and future values of $r$ up to time $k+\tau_{\rm d}$. Hence, the following additional assumption
is required in the dynamical case.
\begin{assump}
\label{Assump3}
The reference signal must be known up to time $k+\tau_{\rm d}$.
\end{assump}
The following example illustrates this procedure.
\begin{example}
\label{example4}
Consider the same model used in Example\,\ref{ex_1}, replacing $y(k)$ with $r(k)$ and $u(k)$ with $m(k)$, yields:
%
\begin{eqnarray}
r(k) & {=} & \hat{\theta}_1r(k-1)+\hat{\theta}_2m(k-1)+\hat{\theta}_3m(k-1)m(k-2) \nonumber \\
& {~} & + \hat{\theta}_4m(k-1)^2+\hat{\theta}_5m(k-1)^3, \nonumber
\end{eqnarray}
\noindent
for which $\tau_{\rm d}=1$. Next, taking the time-shift $k \leftarrow k+1$, the last equation
can be expressed in the form of (\ref{eq_compensator_2}):
%
\begin{eqnarray}
\label{mr1}
\!\!\!\!\!\!0 &{=}& \hat{\theta}_5m(k)^3{+}\hat{\theta}_4m(k)^2{+}\big[\hat{\theta}_2{+}\hat{\theta}_3m(k{-}1)\big]m(k)\nonumber \\
\!\!\!\!\!\!&{~}&{+}[\hat{\theta}_1r(k){-}r(k{+}1)], \nonumber \\
\!\!\!\!\!\!0 &{=}& c_{3}(k)m(k)^3{+}c_{2}(k)m(k)^2{+}c_{1}(k)m(k)+c_{0}(k),
\end{eqnarray}
\noindent
where all the values of $r$ are known (see Assumption\,\ref{Assump3}) and also all past values of $m$.
Hence, at each time step $k$ the solutions to (\ref{mr1}), that is, the three values of $m(k)$ are the potential
compensation inputs. \hfill
$\square$
\end{example}
In what follows, some important recommendations on initialization and the decision-making process adopted
to choose the root to be used as compensation input are stated.
\begin{remark}(Initial compensator conditions).
\label{Rem1}
From Assumption~\ref{Assump3}, $r(k+\tau_{\rm d})$ is known in compensator (\ref{eq_compensator_2}). Call that
value $\bar{r}$. Using the calibration curve of ${\cal S}$ or the static nonlinearity of ${\cal M}$, find the
respective $\bar{m}$ and take $m(j)=\bar{m},~j=k-1,\ldots,k{+}\tau_{\rm d}{-}n_u$. If the calibration curve is
not available, this value can be obtained through the static nonlinearity of model ${\cal M}$ or by solving the
static compensator $\bar{{\cal M}}_r$ (\ref{eq_comp_stat}), $\bar{r}{=}\bar{f}^{\ell}(\bar{m},\bar{r})$, for
$\bar{m}$. If there is more than one solution
to $\bar{r} = \bar{f}^{\ell}(\bar{m},\bar{r})$ use the one that: i)~stabilizes the model output and ii)~satisfies
constraints C\ref{c1} and C\ref{c2}. Items i) and ii) are automatically taken into account by using the calibration
curve or static nonlinearity. \hfill $\square$
\end{remark}
\begin{remark}(The decision-making process).
\label{Rem2}
Let $\bm{m}_k \triangleq [m_{1}^k~\cdots~m_{\ell_m}^k]^T$ be the set of roots of (\ref{eq_compensator_2}).
If only one element of $\bm{m}_k$
satisfies C\ref{c1} and C\ref{c2} , then this will be the compensation input at
time $k$, otherwise we choose the appropriate root according to:
%
\begin{alignat}{1}
\label{c3}
m(k)=\underset{m_j^k,~\forall j\in \{1,\ldots,\ell_m\}}{\arg\min} & \Big(|m_j^k-m(k-1)|\Big) . \\
\text{subject to:} ~C\ref{c1},\,C\ref{c2}\nonumber
\end{alignat}
\noindent
The use of (\ref{c3}) selects the solution that is closest to the
compensation value used in the previous time step. This simple criterion results in smoother signals $m(k)$
and, consequently, in less compensation effort \cite{Abreu_etal2020}. \hfill $\square$
\end{remark}
If $\ell_m$ is even and composed only of complex conjugate values, then take $m(k){=}m(k-1)$.
This situation is not common for models that satisfy Assumption\,\ref{Assump1}.
Algorithm\,\ref{sel_root} summarizes the method to select the appropriate root.
\begin{algorithm}
\label{sel_root}
\SetAlgoLined\SetArgSty{}
\KwIn{$m(k-1); \quad \bm{m}_k \triangleq [m_{1}^k~\cdots~m_{\ell_m}^k]^T$}
$v \leftarrow \infty$ \\
$a \leftarrow 0$ \\
\For{$j=1$ \KwTo $\ell_m$}{
\If{$m_j^k \in \mathbb{R}$ (C1) \textbf{and} $ u_{\min} \leq m_j^k \leq u_{\max}$ (C2)}
{
$e \leftarrow |m_j^k-m(k-1)|$\\
\If{$e < v$}
{
$v \leftarrow e$\\
$a \leftarrow 1$\\
$m(k) \leftarrow m_j^k$\\
}
}
}
\If{$a = 0$}
{
$m(k) \leftarrow m(k-1)$
}
\KwOut{$m(k)$}
\caption{Selecting the Appropriate Solution for \eqref{eq_compensator_2}}
\end{algorithm}
\vspace{-0.3cm}
\subsection{Compensation for Systems with Hysteresis}
\label{sub_comp_hys}
The inclusion of the first difference of the input $u(k)$ and the corresponding
sign function as regressors is a sufficient condition for NARX models to mimic
hysteresis loop \cite{Martins_Aguirre2016}. A general NARX model set
\cite{bil_che/89} extended with these regressors
will be referred to as ${\cal{M}}_{\rm h}$:
\begin{eqnarray}
\label{m_narx_hys}
\!\!\!\!\!y(k) &{=}& g^{\ell}\big(y({k-1}),\cdots,y(k-n_{y}), \,u(k-\tau_{\rm d}),\cdots, \nonumber \\
&{~}& \hspace{3mm} u(k-n_u), \phi_{1}(k-1), \,\phi_{2}(k-1) \big) +e(k),
\end{eqnarray}
\noindent
where $\phi_{1}(k){=}u(k){-}u(k{-}1)$, $\phi_{2}(k) {=} {\rm sign}(\phi_{1}(k))$, $g^{\ell}(\cdot)$
is a polynomial function of the regressor variables up to degree $\ell$, and the other parameters are
the same as defined in \eqref{eq_model}. For models such as \eqref{m_narx_hys}, there are two sets of
equilibria for the deterministic part (omitting the noise) under loading-unloading inputs: one for
loading with $\phi_{2}(k){=}1$, and one for unloading with $\phi_{2}(k){=}{-}1$ \cite{Abreu_etal2020}. A constrained approach is proposed and detailed by \cite{Abreu_etal2020} to ensure that the model can describe the dynamic behaviour and also features in steady-state.
Therefore, to deal specifically with hysteresis compensation, the general compensation method proposed
in Sec.\,\ref{sub_comp_dyn} will be adapted. Considering non-constant inputs, the following simplification
will be used:
\begin{eqnarray}
\label{eq_product_simp}
\phi_1(k-1)\phi_2(k-1) & = & \phi_1(k-1)\dfrac{|\phi_1(k-1)|}{\phi_1(k-1)}, \nonumber \\
& = & |u(k-1)-u(k-2)|,
\end{eqnarray}
\noindent
for $u(k-1) \neq u(k-2)$.
The compensator is developed following the {\it steps} below:
\begin{enumerate}
\item Rewrite ${\cal M}_{\rm h}$ as:\label{step_1}
%
\begin{eqnarray}
\label{mr_hys_gen_1}
0 &{=}& g^{\ell}\big(y({k-1}),\cdots,y(k-n_{y}), \,u(k-\tau_{\rm d}),\cdots, \nonumber \\
&{~}& u(k\!-\!n_u),\phi_{1}(k\!-\!1), \,\phi_{2}(k\!-\!1) \big) - y(k);
\end{eqnarray}
\item if $\phi_1(k-1)\phi_2(k-1)$ appears in any regressor of \eqref{mr_hys_gen_1}, use the result in \eqref{eq_product_simp}; \label{step_2}
\item if $\phi_1(k\!-\!1)$ and $\phi_2(k\!-\!1)$ still appear, replace them with $u(k\!-\!1)\!-\!u(k\!-\!2)$ and
$|u(k\!-\!1)\!-\!u(k-2)|/[u(k\!-\!1)\!-\!u(k-2)]$, respectively; \label{step_3}
\item if $[u(k-1)-u(k-2)]$ appears in any denominator, multiply the equation by $[u(k-1)-u(k-2)]$; \label{step_4}
\item replace $y(k)$ with $r(k)$, $u(k)$ with $m(k)$, perform the time shift $k \leftarrow k + \tau_{\rm d}$, and
rewrite this equation like (\ref{eq_compensator_2}); \label{step_5}
\item split the equation with $|\cdot|$ into two polynomials in $m(k)$: \label{step_6}
%
\begin{eqnarray}
\label{mr_hys_load}
0&{=}& c_{\ell_m}^{\rm L}(k)m(k)^{\ell_m}+c_{\ell_m-1}^{\rm L}(k)m(k)^{\ell_m-1}\nonumber \\
&{~}&+\ldots+c_{1}^{\rm L}(k)m(k)+ c_{0}^{\rm L}(k) \\
&{~}& \text{for} \quad m(k)>m(k-1), \nonumber
\end{eqnarray}
%
\begin{eqnarray}
\label{mr_hys_unload}
0 &{=}& c_{\ell_m}^{\rm U}(k)m(k)^{\ell_m}+c_{\ell_m-1}^{\rm U}(k)m(k)^{\ell_m-1}\nonumber \\
&{~}&+\ldots+c_{1}^{\rm U}(k)m(k)+ c_{0}^{\rm U}(k) \\
&{~}& \text{for} \quad m(k)<m(k-1), \nonumber
\end{eqnarray}
\end{enumerate}
\noindent
where the superscripts $\rm L$ and $\rm U$ refer to loading and unloading regimes, respectively.
Note that, as we are now dealing with a hysteretic system, (\ref{eq_compensator_2}) has two
counterparts: one for loading (\ref{mr_hys_load}), and one for unloading (\ref{mr_hys_unload}).
In this case, the compensation input $m(k)$ will be a feasible root of (\ref{mr_hys_load}) or (\ref{mr_hys_unload}).
Before detailing the decision-making process to compensate for such systems, the previous steps will be illustrated
below.
\begin{example}
\label{example5}
Suppose that the model ${\cal M}_{\rm h}$ is:
%
\begin{eqnarray}
\label{m_hys_1}
y(k) \!\!\!&\!\!\! = \!\!\!&\!\!\! \hat{\theta}_1y(k\!-\!1)\!+\! \hat{\theta}_2u(k\!-\!1)^3
\!+\! \hat{\theta}_3\phi_1(k\!-\!1)\phi_2(k\!-\!1)u(k\!-\!1) \nonumber \\ & & +\hat{\theta}_4\phi_1(k-1)\phi_2(k-1)y(k-1).
\end{eqnarray}
\noindent
Following steps\,\ref{step_1} and \ref{step_2}, \eqref{m_hys_1} is rewritten as:
%
\begin{eqnarray}
\label{m_hys_ex1}
0 \!\!\!&\!\!\! = \!\!\!&\!\!\! \hat{\theta}_1y(k\!-\!1)\!+\! \hat{\theta}_2u(k\!-\!1)^3
\!+\! \hat{\theta}_3|u(k\!-\!1)-u(k\!-\!2)|u(k\!-\!1) \nonumber \\ & & +\hat{\theta}_4|u(k\!-\!1)-u(k\!-\!2)|y(k-1) - y(k).
\end{eqnarray}
\noindent
In this model, steps\,\ref{step_3} and \ref{step_4} do not apply. By means of step\,\ref{step_5},
we get the following equation (remember that $\tau_{\rm d}=1$):
\begin{eqnarray}
\label{m_hys_ex2}
0 \!\!\!&\!\!\! = \!\!\!&\!\!\! \hat{\theta}_1r(k)\!+\! \hat{\theta}_2m(k)^3
\!+\! \hat{\theta}_3|m(k)-m(k\!-\!1)|m(k) \nonumber \\ & & +\hat{\theta}_4|m(k)-m(k\!-\!1)|r(k) - r(k+1),
\end{eqnarray}
\noindent
which can be split into two polynomials (step\,\ref{step_6}) as:
%
\begin{eqnarray}
0 & = & \hat{\theta}_2m(k)^3 + \hat{\theta}_3m(k)^2+ \nonumber \\
&~&[-\hat{\theta}_3m(k-1)+\hat{\theta}_4r(k)]m(k)+\nonumber \\
&~& [\hat{\theta}_1r(k)-\hat{\theta}_4m(k-1)r(k)-r(k+1)] \nonumber \\
&~& \text{for} \quad m(k)>m(k-1),
\label{mr_hys_load_ex}
\end{eqnarray}
%
\begin{eqnarray}
0 & = & \hat{\theta}_2m(k)^3 -\hat{\theta}_3m(k)^2+ \nonumber \\
&~&[\hat{\theta}_3m(k-1)-\hat{\theta}_4r(k)]m(k)+\nonumber \\
&~& [\hat{\theta}_1r(k)+\hat{\theta}_4m(k-1)r(k)-r(k+1)] \nonumber \\
&~& \text{for} \quad m(k)<m(k-1).
\label{mr_hys_unload_ex}
\end{eqnarray}
\noindent
Here, \eqref{mr_hys_load_ex} refers to loading regime similar to form \eqref{mr_hys_load} with
$c_{3}^{\rm L}(k) =\hat{\theta}_2$, $c_{2}^{\rm L}(k)=\hat{\theta}_3$,
$c_{1}^{\rm L}(k)=-\hat{\theta}_3m(k-1)+\hat{\theta}_4r(k)$, and
$c_{0}^{\rm L}(k)=\hat{\theta}_1r(k)-\hat{\theta}_4m(k-1)r(k)-r(k+1)$; while, in an analogous way,
\eqref{mr_hys_unload_ex} refers to unloading regime in form \eqref{mr_hys_unload} with coefficients
$c_{3}^{\rm U}(k) =\hat{\theta}_2$, $c_{2}^{\rm U}(k)=-\hat{\theta}_3$,
$c_{1}^{\rm U}(k)=\hat{\theta}_3m(k-1)-\hat{\theta}_4r(k)$, and
$c_{0}^{\rm U}(k)=\hat{\theta}_1r(k)+\hat{\theta}_4m(k-1)r(k)-r(k+1)$.
The polynomials \eqref{mr_hys_load_ex} and \eqref{mr_hys_unload_ex}, which are
valid for $k \geq 1$, can be initialized, at $k=0$, using an estimate of the hysteresis loop,
as will be illustrated in Example~\ref{example6}. \hfill $\square$
\end{example}
In addition to Assumption\,\ref{Assump3}, C\ref{c1} and C\ref{c2}, the following must also
be true for hysteretic systems:
\begin{cons}
$m(k)>m(k-1)$, if \eqref{mr_hys_load} is used at time $k$; {\rm OR}
\end{cons}
\begin{cons}
$m(k)<m(k-1)$, if \eqref{mr_hys_unload} is used at time $k$.
\end{cons}
Constraints C3 and C4 are needed to ensure that the root is consistent with the regime
for which it was calculated. Therefore, the decision-making process for hysteretic systems
is similar to that explained in Remark\,\ref{Rem2} with the addition of these new constraints.
Hence:
\begin{alignat}{1}
\label{c4}
m(k)=\underset{m_{j}^k,~\forall j\in \{1,\ldots,\ell_m\}}{\arg\min} & \Big(|m_{j}^k-m(k-1)|\Big), \\
\text{subject to:} ~C1,\,C2,\,Cq\nonumber
\end{alignat}
\noindent
where $q \in \{3,4\}$. The step-by-step procedure is analogous to Algorithm\,\ref{sel_root},
but now using \eqref{c4} instead of \eqref{c3}.
\subsection{Initialization of Compensators for Systems with Hysteresis}
\label{icsh}
If any parameter of compensators \eqref{mr_hys_load} and \eqref{mr_hys_unload} depends on
previous values of the compensation input $m(k)$, i.e. $\{m(k{-}1),\,\ldots,m(k{+}\tau_{\rm d}{-}n_u)\}$,
such values must be determined for initialization. In Sec.\,\ref{sub_comp_dyn}, we can use the
static curve to estimate these initial values, as described in Remark\,\ref{Rem1}. Here,
a hysteresis loop ${\cal H}$ behavior displayed on the input-output plane will be used.
In what follows, a procedure is described to obtain ${\cal H}$ for a given
model ${\cal M}_{\rm h}$ (\ref{m_narx_hys}).
Consider the following sinusoidal input signal with period $T = 1/f_{\rm min}$:
\begin{equation}
\label{eq_u_quasi_static}
\tilde{u}(k) = A \sin\left(2\pi f_{\rm min}k\right) + \tilde{u}_0,
\end{equation}
\noindent
where $f_{\rm min}=1/T$ is the lowest frequency of interest,
$\tilde{u}_0 {=} (u_{\rm min} {+} u_{\rm max})/2$ is the mean, and
$A = u_{\rm max} - \tilde{u}_0$ is the amplitude. Using $\tilde{u}(k)$ in the model \eqref{m_narx_hys},
after the transient, the resulting data set $\{\tilde{u}(k), \tilde{y}(k)\}^{N_e}_{k=N_i}$, where $N_i > T$ and $N_e = N_i + T$,
correspond to a hysteresis loop $\cal{H}$. The use of $\cal{H}$ to initialize the compensator is illustrated in the
next example.
\begin{example}
\label{example6}
Consider model\,(\ref{m_hys_1}) of Example\,\ref{example5}, whose parameter
values are $\hat{\theta}_1=0.8$, $\hat{\theta}_2=0.4$, $\hat{\theta}_3=0.2$, and
$\hat{\theta}_4 = 0.1$. In order to initialize the compensator, at $k=0$, $m(-1)$
is needed in \eqref{mr_hys_load_ex} and \eqref{mr_hys_unload_ex}. For this purpose,
suppose that the excitation input signal $\tilde{u}$ \eqref{eq_u_quasi_static}
is defined with $A = 1$, $f_{\rm min} = 1 \text{ } {\rm Hz}$, and $\tilde{u}_0 = 1$ for
which the resulting $\cal{H}$ is shown in Fig.\,\ref{fig_ini_hys_ex}.
\begin{figure}[!h]
\centering
\includegraphics[width=0.8\columnwidth]{fig_2.pdf}
\vspace{-0.3cm}
\caption{Loop $\cal H$ is obtained from the simulation of model \eqref{m_hys_1} with
the input described in Example\,\ref{example6}. Blue dots (\textcolor{blue}{$\vdot$}) refer to loading regime,
while those in red (\textcolor{red}{$\vdot$}) refer to unloading. For a given output or reference,
say $r(1)$, there are two possible inputs indicated by triangles (\textcolor{blue}{$\blacktriangle$})
blue and red (\textcolor{red}{$\blacktriangle$}) that correspond to $m_{\rm L}(0)$ and $m_{\rm U}(0)$,
respectively. Which of these to use to start computing the compensator is determined by the regime at initialization time.}
\label{fig_ini_hys_ex}
\end{figure}
From Assumption\,\ref{Assump3}, we have that the reference is known up to time $r(k{+}1)$.
Suppose that $r(1)=2$ and that $\tilde{y}=r(1)$, there are two possible values for the input $\tilde{u}$,
namely of, $ m_{\rm L}(0)$ and $m_{\rm U}(0)$, which can be obtained from $\cal{H}$ (Fig.\,\ref{fig_ini_hys_ex}).
The selection between these values is made based on the current regime of the reference signal, i.e., loading $(r(1)-r(0)>0)$
or unloading $(r(1)-r(0)<0)$. In this example, at $k=0$, the reference is in the loading regime and, therefore, $m(0)=m_{\rm L}(0)$
is chosen to initialize equations \eqref{mr_hys_load_ex} and \eqref{mr_hys_unload_ex}. \hfill $\square$
\vspace{-0.3cm}
\end{example}
\section{Results}
\label{NumericalExamples}
This section illustrates the compensator design
proposed in Sec.\,\ref{Methodology} for two simulated benchmark systems and for a pilot plant starting from the identified models.
The input design and other identification procedures are detailed in \cite{Tavares_2020_arxiv}. To evaluate the performance of the compensation achieved, the static nonlinearity of the compensated and uncompensated systems are compared and their time
evolution is evaluated using
the mean absolute percentage error ({\rm MAPE}) index is computed as follows:
\begin{equation}
\label{Eq:MAPE}
{\rm{MAPE}} = \dfrac{\sum_{k=1}^{N}|y_s(k) - y(k)|}{N|{\max}({\bm y_s})-{\min}({\bm y_s})|}.
\end{equation}
\vspace{-0.1cm}
\subsection{A Heating System}
\label{sec_hs_sys}
The bench test system is a small electrical heater modeled by the following
Hammerstein model \cite{agu_eal/05iee}:
\begin{align}
\label{heat_sys_s}
y(k) = & \beta_1 y(k-1) + \beta_2 v(k-1) + \beta_3 y(k-2) + \beta_4 v(k-2), \nonumber \\
v(k) = & p_1 u(k)^2+ p_2 u(k),
\end{align}
\noindent
where $y(k)$ is the normalized temperature, and $u(k)$ is the electric power applied to the heater within the range
$ 0{ \leq} u(k) {\leq} 1$. The data set has been presented in \cite{agu_eal/02iee}, and is
available at \lucas{\textcolor{black}{\url{https://bit.ly/3iQ6rCF}}}.
The operation region of the model is $u(k) \in [0,~1]$ and $y(k) \in [0,~0.5]$. As described in \cite{Tavares_2020_arxiv}, the obtained parameters of (\ref{heat_sys_s}) are: $p_1 = 4.639331 \times 10^{-1}$, $p_2 = 5.435865 \times 10^{-2}$; while $\beta_1=1.205445$, $\beta_2 = 8.985133 \times 10^{-2}$, $\beta_3= -3.0877507 \times 10^{-1}$ and $\beta_4 = 9.462358 \times 10^{-3}$. From now on, the Hammerstein model (\ref{heat_sys_s}) will be treated as the system $\cal{S}$ to be compensated.
To compensate the nonlinearities in $\cal S$, the following three-term model $\cal M$ was obtained according to the procedure detailed in \cite{Tavares_2020_arxiv}:
\begin{equation}
\label{hs_model}
y(k) = \hat{\theta}_1y(k-1)+\hat{\theta}_2 u(k-2)^2 + \hat{\theta}_3y(k-2),
\end{equation}
\noindent
where $\hat{\theta}_1 = 8.958185 \times 10^{-1}$, $ \hat{\theta}_2 = 6.393347 \times 10^{-2}$, and
$\hat{\theta}_3 = -1.746750 \times 10^{-2}$. The validation results are shown in Table\,\ref{hs_tab_mape_model}, which indicate some degradation at higher frequencies and at points of
operation close to the origin.
\vspace{-0.2cm}
\begin{table}[htb]
\centering
\caption{${\rm MAPE}$ for model \eqref{hs_model} with sinusoidal inputs $u(k) = u_0 + 0.2 {\rm{sin}}(2\pi f k) $.
Free-run simulation was used.}
\setlength\tabcolsep{10pt}
\begin{tabular}{c | c c c}
\multirow{2}{*}{$f$ [Hz]}
& \multicolumn{3}{c}{$u_0$ [{\rm V}]} \\
& \textbf{$0.3$} & \textbf{$0.5$} & $0.7$ \\ \hline
0.0005 & 5.5\% & 3.0\% & 2.9\% \\
0.001 & 5.8\% & 2.9\% & 2.8\% \\
0.002 & 7.0\% & 4.0\% & 3.1\%
\label{hs_tab_mape_model}
\end{tabular}
\vspace{-0.1cm}
\end{table}
The static function of $\cal {M}$ (\ref{hs_model}) is:
\begin{equation}
\label{hs_m_stab}
\bar{y} = \dfrac{\hat{\theta}_2 \bar{u}^2}{1-\hat{\theta}_1-\hat{\theta}_3},
\end{equation}
\noindent
from where it is seen that for each value of the input, there is only one fixed point.
Because $\cal {M}$ is second-order, there are two eigenvalues at each fixed point $\bar{y}$.
The Jacobian matrix in this case does not depend on $\bar{u}$ or $\bar{y}$.
Using (\ref{eq_stab_fix_point}) the condition for stability is:
\begin{equation}
\begin{matrix}
\left| \rm{eig} \left(
\begin{bmatrix} 0 & 1 \\ \theta_3 & \theta_1 \end{bmatrix}
\right)
\right|< 1,
\end{matrix} \nonumber
\end{equation}
\noindent
where the eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix are the algebraic solutions of
$\lambda^2-\theta_1\lambda-\theta_3 = 0$, which yields $|\lambda_1| = 0.8759$
and $|\lambda_2| = 0.0199$. Therefore, the fixed point for each input value is stable and, consequently, Assumption \ref{Assump2} is satisfied.
To illustrate the static compensation method presented in Sec.\,\ref{sub_comp_stat},
$\bar{y}$ is replaced with $\bar{r}$ and $\bar{u}$ with $\bar{m}$ in \eqref{hs_m_stab} to find
a polynomial in the unknown $\bar{m}$, that can be expressed like \eqref{eq_comp_stat}:
\begin{eqnarray}
\label{hs_bar_m}
\bar{r} & \!\!\! = \!\!\! &\dfrac{\hat{\theta}_2 \bar{m}^2}{1-\hat{\theta}_1-\hat{\theta}_3}, \nonumber \\
0 & \!\!\!=\!\!\! & \underbrace{[\hat{\theta}_2]}_{c_{m,2}}\bar{m}^2+\underbrace{[(\hat{\theta}_1+\hat{\theta}_3-1)\bar{r}]}_{c_{m,0}(\bar{r})}.
\end{eqnarray}
Since \eqref{hs_bar_m} is an incomplete quadratic equation and the operation region is limited to
$0 \leq \bar{m} \leq 1$, the algebraic solution is given by:
\begin{equation}
\label{hs_bar_m_2}
\bar{m} = \sqrt{\dfrac{-c_{m,0}(\bar{r})}{ c_{m,2}}} = \sqrt{\dfrac{(1-\hat{\theta}_1-\hat{\theta}_3)\bar{r}}{\hat{\theta}_2}}.
\end{equation}
Also, as $\bar{r} \geq 0$, $\hat{\theta}_2 > 0$ and $1-\hat{\theta}_1-\hat{\theta}_3> 0$,
the result of the square root in \eqref{hs_bar_m_2} is always real. In Fig.\,\ref{fig_hs_val_comp_stat_y},
the static compensation results are shown for a reference that is a sequence of steps.
As expected, the compensated system is approximately linear (see Fig. \ref{fig_hs_val_comp_stat_y}-b).
The static compensation can be used to find the initial values for the dynamical compensator when needed.
\begin{figure}[htb]
\centering
\includegraphics[width=0.88\columnwidth]{fig_3.pdf}
\normalsize \vspace{-0.3cm}
\caption{Validation results for static compensation:
(\textcolor{blue}{\hbox{--}}) is the reference; (\textcolor{red}{\hbox{-$\cdot$-}}), output of the compensated system; (\textcolor{green}{- -}), output of the uncompensated system. In (a), temporal evolution of the outputs and the reference; (b), the
$r \times y$ plane.}
\label{fig_hs_val_comp_stat_y}
\vspace{-0cm}
\end{figure}
For dynamical compensation, using model $\cal M$ (\ref{hs_model})
the procedure put forward in Sec.\,\ref{sub_comp_dyn} yields
(see Eq.\,\ref{eq_compensator_1}):
\begin{equation}
r(k+1) = \hat{\theta}_1 r(k)+\hat{\theta}_2m(k)^2+\hat{\theta}_3r(k-1) \nonumber
\end{equation}
\noindent
and (see Eq.\,\ref{eq_compensator_2}):
\begin{eqnarray}
\label{hs_mr_2}
\!\!\!\!0 & \!\!\!=\!\!\! & \underbrace{[\hat{\theta}_2]}_{c_{2}}m(k)^2+\underbrace{[\hat{\theta}_1r(k)+\hat{\theta}_3r(k-1)-r(k+1)]}_{c_{0}(k)}.
\end{eqnarray}
Solving \eqref{hs_mr_2} at each iteration yields the compensation input $m(k)$. Because
\eqref{hs_mr_2} is quadratic, there are two possibilities. Either both roots are real,
and then Algorithm\,\ref{sel_root} is used to select which one to use, or the roots are complex
conjugate in which case the previous value is used, i.e., $m(k)=m(k-1)$.
The algebraic solution of \eqref{hs_mr_2} gives the compensator $\cal M_{\rm r}$:
\begin{equation}
m(k) = \sqrt{\dfrac{-c_{0}(k)}{c_{2}}} = \sqrt{\dfrac{r(k+1)-\hat{\theta}_1r(k)-\hat{\theta}_3r(k-1)}{\hat{\theta}_2}}. \label{hs_mr_3}
\end{equation}
\noindent
Because $m(k)$ does not depend on its previous values, in order to initialize \eqref{hs_mr_3},
it is sufficient to make $r(-1)=r(0)$ in (\ref{hs_mr_3}) at $k=0$.
In Fig.\,\ref{fig_hs_val_comp_sin_y} and in Table~\ref{hs_tab_mape_comp}, the results obtained with $\cal M_{\rm r}$ (\ref{hs_mr_3}) is compared to the uncompensated system for different reference signals. The uncompensated results are performed using $r(k)$ as the input for $\cal S$. From Table~\ref{hs_tab_mape_comp},
it is seen that as the frequency increases, the compensation becomes somewhat less effective, as would be expected for most control systems. Also for small values of $r(k)$ (see Fig. \ref{fig_hs_val_comp_sin_y}-b), complex roots appear, and according to Algorithm\,\ref{sel_root}, the last computed value will be used, that is, $m(k) = m(k-1)$.
\begin{figure}[htb]
\centering
\includegraphics[width=0.88\columnwidth]{fig_4.pdf}
\normalsize \vspace{-0.3cm}
\caption{Compensation results. (a)~temporal evolution; (b)~the applied inputs. In (a),
(\textcolor{blue}{\hbox{--}}) is the reference $r(k) = 0.2 {\rm{sin}}(2\pi (0.002) k+\pi/2) + 0.15$;
(\textcolor{red}{\hbox{-$\cdot$-}}) is the output of the compensated system $y_{\rm c}(k)$ and
(\textcolor{green}{\hbox{- -}}) is the output of the system $y_{\rm s}(k)$ without compensation. In (b),
(\textcolor{red}{\hbox{-$\cdot$-}}) is the compensation input $m(k)$, while (\textcolor{green}{- -}) is the input applied in the uncompensated system.}
\label{fig_hs_val_comp_sin_y}
\vspace{-0.3cm}
\end{figure}
\begin{table}[htb]
\centering
\caption{${\rm MAPE}$ for compensated and uncompensated systems with $r(k) = r_0 {\rm{sin}}(2\pi f k+\pi/2) + r_0$.}
\setlength\tabcolsep{10pt}
\begin{tabular}{c | c | c c c c}
\multirow{2}{*}{} &\multirow{2}{*}{$f$ [Hz]}
& \multicolumn{3}{c}{$r_0$ [{\rm V}]} \\
& & \textbf{$0.05$} & \textbf{$0.10$} & $0.20$ \\ \hline
\multirow{4}{*}{Compensated}
& 0.0005 & 7.8\% & 4.1\% & 3.4\% \\
& 0.001 & 9.4\% & 6.4\% & 5.6\% \\
& 0.002 & 15.5\% & 12.2\% & 10.2\% \\
& 0.004 & 29.5\% & 25.8\% & 20.2\%
\\ \hline
\multirow{4}{*}{Uncompensated}
& 0.0005 & 45.6\% & 44.0\% & 40.8\% \\
& 0.001 & 45.5\% & 44.0\% & 40.9\% \\
& 0.002 & 45.3\% & 44.0\% & 41.4\% \\
& 0.004 & 44.8\% & 43.7\% & \text{ }41.8\%
\label{hs_tab_mape_comp}
\end{tabular}
\vspace{-0.6cm}
\end{table}
Figure\,\ref{fig_hs_monte_carlo} shows the results for a Monte Carlo test of $10000$ runs.
During each run, a perturbed model $\cal M$ (\ref{hs_model}) is obtained by taking parameters
from a Gaussian distribution centered at the original parameters and with the covariance matrix
of the estimator. The black dashed lines indicate the region determined by $\mu(\bar{r}) \pm 2\sigma(\bar{r})$,
where $\mu(\bar{r})$ is the output mean and $\sigma(\bar{r})$ is the standard deviation.
The compensation performance is considerably effective on average for $\bar{r}{<}0.3$, and then it degrades a bit.
\begin{figure}[htb]
\centering
\includegraphics[width=0.8\columnwidth]{fig_5.pdf}
\vspace{-0.4cm}
\caption{Results of a Monte Carlo test.
(\textcolor{green}{-$\ast$-}) static curve of the uncompensated system, (\textcolor{blue}{-$\ast$-}) is the reference and
(\textcolor{red}{-$\ast$-}) is $\mu(\bar{r})$, the mean calculated for the 10000 runs at each value $\bar{r}$, (\textcolor{black}{- -}) represent the error bars of $\pm 2\sigma(\bar{r})$.}
\label{fig_hs_monte_carlo}
\vspace{-0.8cm}
\end{figure}
\subsection{A Hysteretic System}
\label{sec_bw}
In this example, the following Bouc-Wen model was used to describe the hysteretic behavior of a
piezoelectric actuator (PZT) that is an unimorph cantilever \cite{Rakotondrabe2011}:
\begin{align}
\dot{h}(t) =& \alpha_{\rm bw}\dot{u}(t)-\beta_{\rm bw}|\dot{u}(t)|h(t)-\gamma_{\rm bw} \dot{u}(t)|h(t)|, \nonumber\\
y(t) =& \nu_{y}u(t) - h(t),
\label{eq_bw}
\end{align}
\noindent
where $u(t)$[V] is the voltage input, $y(t)$[$\rm{\mu}m$] is the position output,
the parameters $\alpha_{\rm bw} = 0.9 [\mu\rm{ m}/\rm{V}]$ and
$\beta_{\rm bw}=\gamma_{\rm bw} = 0.008[\rm{V}^{-1}]$ determine the hysteresis loop, while
$\nu_{y}=1.6 [\mu\rm{ m}/\rm{V}]$ is a weight factor for the output. Here,
\eqref{eq_bw} is referred as the system $\cal S$ to be compensated, which is simulated
with a fourth-order Runge-Kutta method considering the integration step $\delta_t=5 \rm{ms}$.
The following NARX polynomial model ${\cal M}_{\rm h}$ (\ref{m_narx_hys}) to represent $\cal S$ was obtained as detailed in \cite{Tavares_2020_arxiv}:
\begin{eqnarray}
\label{bw_model}
y(k)\!\!\!\! &{=}&\!\!\!\!\hat{\theta}_1y(k{-}1){+}\hat{\theta}_2\phi_{2}(k{-}1)\phi_{3}(k{-}1)u(k{-}1) \nonumber \\
& & {+}\hat{\theta}_3\phi_{2}(k{-}1)\phi_{3}(k{-}1)y(k{-}1){+}\hat{\theta}_4\phi_{2}(k{-}1),
\end{eqnarray}
\noindent
where $\<|fim_middle|>abe2011}, and is reffered as ${\cal M}_{\rm bw, r}$ given by:
\begin{equation}\label{valve_m_r_bw}
m(t)= \dfrac{10}{7.21}[r(t)+h(t)].
\end{equation}
\vspace{0.2cm}
\noindent 3) The compensator for ${\cal M}_{\rm h, 2}$ namely ${\cal M}_{\rm h, 2, r}$ is given by Eq. 35 in \cite{Abreu_etal2020}.
\vspace{0.2cm}
\noindent
4) Finally, also extracted from \cite{Abreu_etal2020}, ${\breve{\mathcal M}}_{\rm h,r}$, the compensator for ${\breve{\mathcal M}}_{\rm h}$ is given by Eq. 36 in the mentioned paper.
The compensation results for sinusoidal references with different amplitudes are shown
in Table\,\ref{valv_tab_mape_comp} while Fig.\,\ref{fig_exp_comp_sin} shows the
compensation results for one of these references, $r(k)=0.41{\rm sin}(2\pi(0.1)t+\pi/4)+3{\rm V}$.
All compensation strategies provide considerably better results in all evaluated scenarios
when compared to the uncompensated system.
\begin{table}[htb]
\centering
\caption{${\rm MAPE}$ for compensated and uncompensated systems with $r(t) = G_0 {\rm{sin}}(2\pi (0.1) t)+3.07{\rm V}$.}
\setlength\tabcolsep{6pt}
\begin{tabular}{c | c c c c c}
\multirow{2}{*}{Compensation Strategy}
& \multicolumn{4}{c}{$G_0$ [V]} \\
& \textbf{$0.26$} &\textbf{$0.34$} & \textbf{$0.41$} & $0.50$ \\ \hline
\multirow{1}{*}{\hspace{-0.8cm} 1) $\cal M_{\rm h, r}$ (\ref{mr_hys_2}-\ref{mr_hys_3})}
& 3.9\% & 3.3\% & 3.3\% & 3.8\% \\
\multirow{1}{*}{\hspace{-0.9cm}2) $\cal M_{\rm bw, r}$ (\ref{valve_m_r_bw})}
& 5.9\% & 4.4\% & 4.3\% & 4.2\% \\
\multirow{1}{*}{\hspace{0cm}3) $\cal M_{\rm h, 2, r}$ (35) in \cite{Abreu_etal2020}}
& 3.6\% & 3.5\% & 3.9\% & 5.2\% \\
\multirow{1}{*}{\hspace{-0.25cm}4) $\breve{\cal{M}}_{\rm h,r}$ (36) in \cite{Abreu_etal2020}}
& 2.9\% & 2.8\% & 3.2\% & 2.7\% \\ \hline
\multirow{1}{*}{\hspace{-0.3cm} Uncompensated}
& 21.0\% & 18.0\% & 16.2\% & 14.4\% \\
\hline
\end{tabular}\label{valv_tab_mape_comp}
\end{table}
\begin{figure}[htb]
\centering
\includegraphics[width=0.95\columnwidth]{fig_9.pdf}
\vspace{-0.5cm}
\caption{Compensation results for the pneumatic valve. (a)~temporal evolution of compensation inputs in three cycles; (b)~temporal evolution of outputs for the compensated systems in three cycles; (c)-(f) show the $r \times y$ plane for each compensator. (\textcolor{blue}{--}) refers to the reference $r(t) = 0.34{\rm{sin}}(2\pi (0.1)t+\pi/4)+3V$; (\textcolor{green}{--}), uncompensated system; (\textcolor{red}{-$\vdot$-}) compensation with $\cal M_{\rm h, r}$\hbox{(\ref{mr_hys_2}-\ref{mr_hys_3})}; \hbox{(\textcolor{black}{--})} compensation with $\cal M_{\rm bw, r}$(\ref{valve_m_r_bw}); (\textcolor{cms}{$\vdot$ $\vdot$}) compensation with $\cal M_{\rm h, 2, r}$(35) in \cite{Abreu_etal2020}; (\textcolor{cci}{- -}) compensation with $\breve{\cal{M}}_{\rm h,r}$(36) in \cite{Abreu_etal2020}.}
\label{fig_exp_comp_sin}
\vspace{-0.3cm}
\end{figure}
For the uncompensated system, the input is the reference $r(k)$. Using this as a
starting point, we would like to quantify how much more has to be done in order
to achieve compensation. To this end, the following is computed
\begin{equation}
E({\delta_m}) =
\sum_{k=N-N_0}^{N-1} \delta_m(k)^2,
\end{equation}
\noindent
where $\delta_m(k)=|m(k)-r(k)|$ and $N$ is the length of $\delta_m(k)$.
$E({\delta_m})$ can be interpreted as the energy of $\delta_m(k)$ over one period $N_0$.
Also, the variability with respect to the uncompensated system is given by the
standard deviation of $\delta_m(k)$, $\sigma(\delta_m)$, see Table\,\ref{valv_tab_pot} for a summary of results.
\begin{table}[htb]
\centering
\caption{$E({\delta_m})$[$\sigma({\delta_m})$] for the investigated compensators with
$r(t) = G_0 {\rm{sin}}(2\pi (0.1) t)+3.07{\rm V}$. }
\setlength\tabcolsep{2.5pt}
\begin{tabular}{c | c c c c c}
\multirow{2}{*}{Strategy}
& \multicolumn{4}{c}{$G_0$ [V]} \\
& \textbf{$0.26$} &\textbf{$0.34$} & \textbf{$0.41$} & $0.50$ \\ \hline
\multirow{1}{*}{\hspace{-0.7cm} 1) $\cal M_{\rm h, r}$ (\ref{mr_hys_2}-\ref{mr_hys_3})}
& 28.3 [0.154]& 33.7 [0.165]& 39.4 [0.174]& 49.4 [0.186]\\
\multirow{1}{*}{\hspace{-0.8cm}2) $\cal M_{\rm bw, r}$ (\ref{valve_m_r_bw})}
& 27.0 [0.149]& 33.3 [0.163]& 40.6 [0.178]& 53.7 [0.197]\\
\multirow{1}{*}{\hspace{-0cm}3)$\cal M_{\rm h, 2, r}$ (35) in \cite{Abreu_etal2020}}
& 38.7 [0.184]& 43.7 [0.193]& 50.1 [0.203] & 57.2 [0.206]\\
\multirow{1}{*}{\hspace{-0.2cm}4)$\breve{\cal{M}}_{\rm h,r}$ (36) in \cite{Abreu_etal2020}}
& 24.9 [0.139]& 38.3 [0.174]& 52.7 [0.203]& 72.6 [0.237]\\ \hline
\end{tabular}\label{valv_tab_pot}
\vspace{-0.3cm}
\end{table}
Similar to the validation results of model ${\cal M}_{\rm bw}$, the
corresponding compensator ${\cal M}_{\rm bw,r}$ (\ref{valve_m_r_bw}) performs slightly worse compared
to those based on NARX models. This suggests that NARX models are more appropriated to
describe nonlinearities in the valve. This is not surprising, as the class of NARX
polynomials is more general than the Bouc-Wen class.
On the positive side, the Bouc-Wen model provided the simplest compensator among those presented. In addition,
as seen in Table\,\ref{valv_tab_pot} the respective compensator requires little change compared to the uncompensated
system. The most challenging task related to the Bouc-Wen model is to estimate its
parameters, which was done with an evolutionary approach.
Both compensation strategies proposed by \cite{Abreu_etal2020} performed well.
${\cal M}_{\rm h, 2, r}$
requires special care in the phase of structure selection otherwise the compensation input
$m(k)$ cannot be computed explicitly. Apart from that the compensation law tends to be easier
to calculate than the one put forward in this work. On the negative side, ${\cal M}_{\rm h, 2, r}$
produces inputs with more abrupt changes (see Fig. \ref{fig_exp_comp_sin}-(a) and (e)). This
is reflected in higher values of $E(\delta_m)$ and ${\sigma}(\delta_m)$.
The overall good performance of compensator ${\breve{\mathcal M}}_{\rm h,r}$ comes at the
expense of careful data preprocessing \cite{Abreu_etal2020}.
This compensator can produce smooth compensation inputs (Fig.\,\ref{fig_exp_comp_sin}-(a) and (f)) with
low MAPE values (Table\,\ref{valv_tab_mape_comp}). However $E(\delta_m)$
and ${\sigma}(\delta_m)$ tend to increase considerably with the reference amplitude, as shown in Table \ref{valv_tab_pot}.
The compensator designed with the methodology put forward in this work, ${\cal M}_{\rm h, r}$, was
also able to compensate for the nonlinearity in the valve. The MAPE are among the lowest, especially for
moderate-high reference amplitudes, $G_0$, with the advantage that $E(\delta_m)$ and ${\sigma}(\delta_m)$
do not increase as much as for the other regulators with $G_0$ (Table \ref{valv_tab_pot}). In addition,
$\cal{M}_{\rm h}$ has only $5$ terms which facilitates obtaining the compensation law. Also, if the parameters
of such model needed to be updated, a recursive algorithm can be readily implemented.
On the other hand, if the process models turn out to be polynomials with degree greater than 3,
numerical solvers would be required to find the roots. Fortunately, many systems can be adequately
described using polynomials up to third-degree. As a side note, there is a self-consistency check indirectly
provided by the current method, which is the appearance of unfeasible roots: either real but outside the
operating range or complex. Whenever this happens it is an indication that the process model is not adequate.
Fortunately no such problems occurred in this case study.
\section{Conclusion}\label{Conclusion}
This work has presented an approach to compensate nonlinearities
based on NARX polynomial models previously estimated. The method
is simple and easy to interpret, as the compensation input turns out to
be the value required for the system to attain steady-state properties.
The compensation input is obtained iteratively, which confers some
adaptability to the method. The degree of adaptability can be readily
increased by estimating the model parameters recursively, this has not
been explored in the paper.
The method has been considered
in three contexts: static for constant references, dynamical for
variant, and for systems with hysteresis. At first, the technique was illustrated using two simulated systems.
The performance is comparable to that of other methods available in
the literature. In addition, the method presents some robustness to variation
in the parameters, as evaluated using Monte Carlo tests.
The proposed techinque was also implemented on a pilot plant where the goal was to
compensate the nonlinearity of a pneumatic control valve. The performance
was compared with a compensator designed in \cite{Rakotondrabe2011}
and two more recent strategies published by \cite{Abreu_etal2020}.
All compensators can achieve nonlinearity compensation for the valve
(see Table\,\ref{valv_tab_mape_comp}). Pros and cons of
each technique were discussed.
Another interesting feature of the presented technique is that
a compensator can be designed for linear or nonlinear systems with or without using constraints
during model estimation. Perhaps the main foreseen limitation occurs if the compensators are
designed using polynomial models of degree greater than $3$, which is not a common situation
in practice, though it could happen. In this case, it would be necessary to use numerical solvers
to find the roots, which could turn out to be a problem for more demanding online applications.
Fortunately, many relevant systems can be described by models up to 3rd
degree for which the roots can be found with analytical expressions presented in Appendix\,\ref{appendix_sol}.
Finally, the aim of the compensators is to cancel out most of the nonlinearity. This would allow for
the design of linear feedback controllers as a second step.
\appendices
\section{Solving Algebraic Polynomial Equations}\label{appendix_sol}
Algebraic polynomial equations with unknown $x$, degree $n \in \mathbb{N}^+$, and known coefficients $a_i \in \mathbb{R}$, $i \in \{0,\ldots,n\}$, can be expressed as
\begin{equation}\label{eq_poly}
0 = a_nx^n+a_{n-1}x^{n-1}+\ldots+a_1x+a_0, \quad a_n \neq 0
\end{equation}
\noindent For \eqref{eq_poly}, there are $n$ complex roots. The analytical solutions for $n \leq 3$ are presented in the sequel.
\begin{itemize}
\item[\textit{A)}] \textit{Linear Equations}
\begin{align*}
&0 = a_1x+a_0, \quad a_1 \neq 0 \nonumber \\
&x = \dfrac{-a_0}{a_1} \nonumber
\end{align*}
\item[\textit{B)}] \textit{Quadratic Equations}
\begin{align*}
&0 = a_2x^2+a_1x+a_0, \quad a_2 \neq 0 \nonumber \\
&\Delta = a_1^2-4a_2a_0 \nonumber \\
&x_i = \dfrac{-a_1 + (-1)^i \Delta}{2a_2}, \quad i \in \{0,1\}
\end{align*}
\item[\textit{C)}] \textit{Cubic Equations}
\begin{align*}
& 0 = a_3x^3+a_2x^2+a_1x+a_0, \quad a_3 \neq 0 \nonumber \\
&\Delta_0 = a_2^2-3a_3a_1\nonumber \\
&\Delta_1 = 2a_2^3-9a_3a_2a_1+27a_3^2a_0\nonumber \\
&C = \sqrt[3]{\dfrac{\Delta_1 \pm \sqrt{\Delta_1^2-4\Delta_0^3}}{2}} \nonumber \\
&\xi = \dfrac{-1+\sqrt{-3}}{2} \nonumber \\
&x_i = -\dfrac{1}{3a}\left(b+\xi^iC+\dfrac{\Delta_0}{C}\right), \quad i \in \{0,1,2\} \nonumber
\end{align*}
\end{itemize
\section*{Acknowledgment}
PEOGBA and LAA gratefully acknowledge financial support from CNPq
(Grant Nos. 142194/2017-4 and 303412/2019-4) and
FAPEMIG (TEC-1217/98).
\ifCLASSOPTIONcaptionsoff
\newpage
\fi
\bibliographystyle{IEEEtran}
| hat{\theta}_1 = 1.000099$, $ \hat{\theta}_2 = 6.630567 \times 10^{-3}$, $\hat{\theta}_3 = -6.247018 \times 10^{-3}$, and $\hat{\theta}_4=7.892915$. The validation results are shown in Table\,\ref{bw_tab_mape_model}, which indicate some degradation at higher frequencies and amplitudes.
\begin{table}[htb]
\centering
\caption{${\rm MAPE}$ for model (\ref{bw_model}) with sinusoidal inputs $u(k) = {\rm{Gsin}}(2\pi f k)$.
Free-run simulation was used.}
\setlength\tabcolsep{10pt}
\begin{tabular}{c | c c c}
\multirow{2}{*}{$f$ [Hz]}
& \multicolumn{3}{c}{$\rm G$ [{\rm V}]} \\
& \textbf{$10$} & \textbf{$30$} & $50$ \\ \hline
0.2 & 2.6\% & 2.0\% & 4.7\% \\
1.0 & 2.7\% & 1.3\% & 4.1\% \\
5.0 & 7.7\% & 5.0\% & \text{ }3.6\%
\label{bw_tab_mape_model}
\end{tabular}
\vspace{-0.2cm}
\end{table}
Following steps \ref{step_1}, \ref{step_2}, \ref{step_3} and \ref{step_5} for the
procedure presented in Sec.\,\ref{sub_comp_hys}, the compensator obtained is ${\cal M}_{\rm h, r}$ given by:
\begin{eqnarray}
\label{hs_mr_hys_1}
0 \!\!&\!\!\!\! {=} \!\!\!\!&\!\! \hat{\theta}_1r(k){-}r(k{+}1){+}\hat{\theta}_2|m(k){-}m(k{-}1)|m(k) \nonumber \\
& &{+}\hat{\theta}_3|m(k){-}m(k{-}1)|r(k){+}\hat{\theta}_4|m(k){-}m(k{-}1)|,
\end{eqnarray}
\noindent
for which is assumed that $m(k) {\neq} m(k-1)$, and it can be split into two polynomials
in $m(k)$, like (\ref{mr_hys_load}) and (\ref{mr_hys_unload}) in step\,\ref{step_6}, as:
\begin{equation}
\label{mr_hys_2}
\!\!0 {=} c_{2}^{\rm L}m(k)^2{+}c_{1}^{\rm L}(k)m(k){+} c_{0}^{\rm L}(k),~~ \text{for}~~ m(k){>}m(k{-}1);
\end{equation}
and
\begin{equation}
\label{mr_hys_3}
\!\!0{=} c_{2}^{\rm U}m(k)^2{+}c_{1}^{\rm U}(k)m(k){+} c_{0}^{\rm U}(k),~~ \text{for} ~~ m(k){<}m(k{-}1),
\end{equation}
\noindent
where $c_{2}^{\rm L}=\hat{\theta}_2$, $c_{1}^{\rm L}(k)=-\hat{\theta}_2m(k-1)+\hat{\theta}_3r(k)+\hat{\theta}_4$, $c_{0}^{\rm L}(k)=\hat{\theta}_1r(k)-\hat{\theta}_3m(k-1)r(k)-\hat{\theta}_4m(k-1)-r(k+1)$, $c_{2}^{\rm U}=-\hat{\theta}_2$, $c_{1}^{\rm U}(k)=\hat{\theta}_2m(k-1)-\hat{\theta}_3r(k)-\hat{\theta}_4$, and $c_{0}^{\rm U}(k)=\hat{\theta}_1r(k)+\hat{\theta}_3m(k-1)r(k)+\hat{\theta}_4m(k-1)-r(k+1).$
As some parameters of (\ref{mr_hys_2}) and (\ref{mr_hys_3}) depend on $m(k-1)$,
the initialization of the compensator is required at $k=0$. Applying
$\tilde{u} = 50{\rm{sin}}(2\pi0.2k)$ to model ${\cal M}_{\rm h}$ (\ref{bw_model}),
the loop ${\cal{H}}(\tilde{u}, \tilde{y})$ is determined. Making
$\tilde{y} = r(k + 1)$, $m(k-1)$ can be determined directly from
loop $\cal H$ similarly to Example\,\ref{example6}.
The validation results for compensation with (\ref{mr_hys_2}) and (\ref{mr_hys_3}) are shown in
Fig.\,\ref{fig_bw_comp_valid} and in Table\,\ref{bw_tab_mape_comp}. These results
indicate that the compensated system presents better tracking performance than the
uncompensated in all evaluated scenarios. In addition, the worst results occur
at higher frequencies and amplitudes.
\begin{figure}[htb]
\centering
\includegraphics[width=0.88\columnwidth]{fig_6.pdf}
\vspace{-0.35cm}
\caption{Compensation results for system \eqref{eq_bw}. (a)~temporal evolution of outputs; (b) the $r \times y$ plane and (c)~temporal evolution of inputs. (\textcolor{blue}{--}) represents the reference $r(k) = 30{\rm{sin}}(2\pi (2) k+\pi/2)$;
(\textcolor{red}{-$\cdot$-}), results for compensator given by (\ref{mr_hys_2}) and (\ref{mr_hys_3}) and (\textcolor{green}{- -}), uncompensated system.}
\label{fig_bw_comp_valid}
\end{figure}
\begin{table}[htb]
\centering
\caption{${\rm MAPE}$ for compensated and uncompensated systems with $r(k) = G_0 {\rm{sin}}(2\pi f k+\pi/2)$.}
\setlength\tabcolsep{10pt}
\begin{tabular}{c | c | c c c c}
\multirow{2}{*}{} &\multirow{2}{*}{$f$ [Hz]}
& \multicolumn{3}{c}{$G_0$ [$\mu${\rm m}]} \\
& & \textbf{$20$} & \textbf{$30$} & $40$ \\ \hline
\multirow{4}{*}{Compensated}
& 0.2 & 1.4\% & 3.2\% & 5.2\% \\
& 1.0 & 0.9\% & 2.5\% & 4.5\% \\
& 2.0 & 1.0\% & 1.4\% & 3.4\% \\
& 5.0 & 5.4\% & 4.5\% & 3.9\%
\\ \hline
\multirow{4}{*}{Uncompensated}
& 0.2 & 7.8\% & 7.1\% & 6.4\% \\
& 1.0 & 7.8\% & 7.0\% & 6.3\% \\
& 2.0 & 7.7\% & 6.9\% & 6.1\% \\
& 5.0 & 7.6\% & 6.6\% & \text{ }5.8\%
\label{bw_tab_mape_comp}
\end{tabular}
\vspace{-0.2cm}
\end{table}
Finally, Fig.\,\ref{fig_bw_monte_carlo} shows the results for $10000$ Monte Carlo runs,
where $r(k) = 20 {\rm{sin}}(2\pi(2) k+\pi/2)$ is used in 5 cycles. A perturbed model ${\cal M}_{\rm h}$ (\ref{bw_model})
is obtained, as before. The Monte Carlo test presents a region determined by $\mu(k) \pm 2\sigma(k)$,
where $\mu(k)$ and $\sigma(k)$ are analogous to those described in Sec.~\ref{sec_hs_sys}, now for
each $k$, instead of $\bar{r}$. Comparing with Fig. \ref{fig_hs_monte_carlo}, the error bars determine a wider region. It is explained due to the sensitiviy of $\cal{M}_{\rm h}$ on variations in $\hat{\theta}_2$.
\begin{figure}[htb]
\centering
\includegraphics[width=0.88\columnwidth]{fig_7.pdf}
\vspace{-0.5cm}
\caption{Results for 10000 Monte Carlo runs. (a) temporal evolution of the outputs in the last cycle; (b) plane $r(k) \times y(k)$. (\textcolor{green}{-$\ast$-}) refers to the uncompensated system, (\textcolor{blue}{-$\ast$-}) refers to the reference and (\textcolor{red}{-$\ast$-}) is the average $\mu(k)$ of the 10000 Monte Carlo runs for the compensated system. (\textcolor{black}{- -}) represent the error bars of $\pm 2\sigma(k)$.}
\label{fig_bw_monte_carlo}
\vspace{-0.35cm}
\end{figure}
It should be mentioned that the constraint $\Sigma_y=1$ presented by \cite{Abreu_etal2020} is not fulfilled, where $\Sigma_y=1$ is the sum of all linear output's regressors. In order to show how this constraint affects the behavior of the model and compensator, we use a constrained least squares estimator to impose $\Sigma_y=1$ on the parameters of (\ref{bw_model}). The model obtained with constraints,
${\cal M}_{\rm h, cns}$, has the same structure of $\cal M_{\rm h}$ (\ref{bw_model}) with parameters: $\Sigma_y=\hat{\theta}_{1, \rm cns}= 1$, $\hat{\theta}_{2, \rm cns} = 6.630913 \times 10^{-3}$, $\hat{\theta}_{3, \rm cns} = -6.157515 \times 10^{-3}$, and $\hat{\rho}_{4, \rm cns}=7.893146$.
Because the equal framework of ${\cal M}_{\rm h}$ and ${\cal M}_{\rm h, cns}$, their compensators
also have a same polynomial structure. The compensator ${\cal M}_{\rm h, cns,r }$ is obtained when we replace each corresponding parameter of ${\cal M}_{\rm h, cns}$ in (\ref{mr_hys_2}) and (\ref{mr_hys_3}). Since the results obtained for modeling and compensation are similar to those presented by Tables\,\ref{bw_tab_mape_model} and \,\ref{bw_tab_mape_comp}, these results are omitted.
A more relevant comparison for these two models and compensators is shown in Fig.\,\ref{fig_bw_constant}.
In this figure, the performance of the models and compensators is verified when an input/reference sinusoidal signal
becomes constant. Note that the validation and compensation results for ${\cal M}_{\rm h}$ (\ref{bw_model})
do not converge at steady-state. As $\bar{\phi}_1=\bar{\phi}_2=0$, both models become $\bar{y} = \Sigma_y\bar{y}$ that
have a single eigenvalue equal to $\Sigma_y$. Consequently, as $\Sigma_y=\hat{\theta}_1>1$, ${\cal M}_{\rm h}$ is unstable
in steady-state while the constraint $\Sigma_y=\hat{\theta}_{1,\rm cns}=1$, makes ${\cal M}_{\rm h, cns}$ remains in the last state. The compensation methods work in an open-loop, hence steady-state errors are expected, but they tend to be less
significant for more precise models.
For the current example, it was found that model ${\cal M}_{\rm h}$ has a steady-state error that tends to infinity over time, while the constrained model ${\cal M}_{\rm h, cns}$ provides a steady-state error of approximately 0,26$\mu$m in Fig. \ref{fig_bw_constant}-(b). Such errors are reflected in the
compensation performance since ${\cal M}_{\rm h, cns, r}$ presents an offset error of 0.83$\mu$m in Fig. \ref{fig_bw_constant}-(d) while the other, ${\cal M}_{\rm h, r}$, has a steady-state error which tends to infinity similarly to its model.
\begin{figure}[htb]
\centering
\includegraphics[width=1\columnwidth]{fig_8.pdf}
\vspace{-0.4cm}
\caption{Validation and compensation results for models ${\cal M}_{\rm h}$ and ${\cal M}_{\rm h, cns}$ when a sinusoidal input or reference become constant. In (a), we have the temporal evolution of the input $u(k)=30{\rm sin}(2\pi(2)k)$ that becomes constant at $k=920$. This input determines the outputs in (b) when applied to the system $\cal S$ (\textcolor{blue}{\hbox{--}}), to ${\cal M}_{\rm h}$ (\textcolor{red}{\hbox{-$\cdot$-}}) and to ${\cal M}_{\rm h, cns}$ (\textcolor{black}{\hbox{- -}}). In (c), $m(k)$ for ${\cal M}_{\rm h}$ (\textcolor{red}{\hbox{-$\cdot$-}}) and ${\cal M}_{\rm h, cns}$ (\textcolor{black}{\hbox{- -}}) that were calculated for $r(k)=u(30{\rm sin}(2\pi(2)k)$) Finally, (d) shows the respective outputs for (c) where $r(k)$ is (\textcolor{blue}{\hbox{--}}).}
\label{fig_bw_constant}
\vspace{-0.3cm}
\end{figure}
\subsection{Experimental Results}
\label{sec_exp_results}
\definecolor{cms}{HTML}{ff00ff}
\definecolor{cci}{HTML}{94a0a0}
\definecolor{inv}{HTML}{6cbbe7}
In this section, the compensation strategy is applied to an experimental pneumatic control valve,
which is a type of actuator widely used in industrial processes. For this type of actuator, the
control performance can degrade significantly due to
friction, dead-zone, dead-band, and hysteresis \cite{Choudhury_etal2008,rom_gar/11}.
The present valve is the same used in \cite{Abreu_etal2020}, where the measured output is its
stem position and the input is a pressure signal applied to the valve after passing V/I and I/P conversion.
The sampling time is $T_{\rm s}=0.01\,{\rm s}$ and, for details of the identification of this system the reader is
referred to \cite{Abreu_etal2020,Tavares_2020_arxiv}. The following models will be considered in this
case study.
\vspace{0.2cm}
\noindent 1) ${\cal M}_{\rm h}$ is the model identified with the inclusion of $\phi_{1}(k)$ and $\phi_{2}(k)$ as
candidate regressors \cite{Martins_Aguirre2016}, and with the gray-box restrictions proposed by \cite{Abreu_etal2020}. As shown in Fig. \ref{fig_bw_constant}, the use of such constraints is important to describe the behavior in steady-state. The estimated model is
\begin{eqnarray}\label{mh_cns_valve}
y(k) & = & \hat{\theta}_1y(k-1)+\hat{\theta}_2y(k-2) + \hat{\theta}_3\phi_1(k-1) \nonumber \\
& + & \hat{\theta}_4u(k-1)\phi_{1}(k-1)\phi_{2}(k-1) \nonumber \\
& + & \hat{\theta}_5y(k-2)\phi_{1}(k-1)\phi_2(k-1),
\end{eqnarray}
with $\hat{\theta}_1=9.76\times 10^{-1}$, $\hat{\theta}_2=2.40 \times 10^{-2}$, $\hat{\theta}_3=1.19 \times 10^{-1}$,
$\hat{\theta}_4=3.76$ and $\hat{\theta}_5=-4.73$. Note that, $\Sigma_y = \hat{\theta}_1 + \hat{\theta}_2 = 1$.
The following models are found in the literature.
\vspace{0.2cm}
\noindent 2) ${\cal M}_{\rm bw}$ is used to represent a BW model (\ref{eq_bw}). To estimate the valve output, its parameters were re-estimated using an evolutionary approach based on
niches, which is formulated in \cite{tavares2019}. These parameters are: $\alpha_{\rm bw} = 7.54 \times 10^{-1}$, $\alpha_{\rm bw}=-4.96$, $\gamma_{\rm bw}=- 3.61$ and $\nu_{y}=7.54 \times 10^{-1}$.
The last two models adopted were identified in \cite{Abreu_etal2020} for the same system under study and
with the same identification data.
\vspace{0.2cm}
\noindent 3) ${\cal M}_{\rm h,2}$ was identified -- see Eq. 33 in \cite{Abreu_etal2020} -- with the same constraints used for
${\cal M}_{\rm h}$ (\ref{mh_cns_valve}), plus an additional one such that
the input signal can be isolated when writing the compensator equation.
\vspace{0.2cm}
\noindent 4) ${\breve{\mathcal M}}_{\rm h}$ was identified to describe the inverse relationship
between $u(k)$ and $y(k)$ of the valve -- see Eq. 34 in \cite{Abreu_etal2020}.
Therefore, the model provides $\hat{u}(k)$ given $y(k)$. The set of candidate regressors
includes $\breve{\phi}_{1}(k)=y(k)-y(k-1)$ and $\breve{\phi}_{2}(k)={\rm sign}[\breve{\phi}_{1}(k)]$.
The performance of the direct models, the first three, subject to sinusoidal inputs with different amplitudes are shown in
Table\,\ref{valv_tab_mape_valid}, which indicate that these models have similar efficiency by MAPE. Since ${\breve{\mathcal M}}_{\rm h}$ is an inverse model, which predicts the input signal instead of the
output and must be simulated from a smoothed version of $y(k)$ \cite{Abreu_etal2020}, we do not directly compare the MAPE accuracy of this model with the others. More details can be found in \cite{Tavares_2020_arxiv}.
\begin{table}[htb]
\centering
\caption{${\rm MAPE}$ for models validation with sinusoidal inputs $u(t) = G_0 {\rm{sin}}(2\pi (0.1) t+\pi/4)+3{\rm V}$.}
\setlength\tabcolsep{10pt}
\begin{tabular}{c | c c c c c}
\multirow{2}{*}{Model}
& \multicolumn{4}{c}{$G_0$ [V]} \\
& \textbf{$0.45$} &\textbf{$0.55$} & \textbf{$0.65$} & $0.75$ \\ \hline
\multirow{1}{*}{{\hspace{-0.4cm}1 - ${\cal M}_{\rm h}$}}
& 3.6\% & 3.0\% & 3.1\% & 4.9\% \\
\multirow{1}{*}{\hspace{-0.2cm}2 - ${\cal M}_{\rm bw}$}
& 3.9\% & 4.1\% & 4.5\% & 6.5\% \\
\multirow{1}{*}{\hspace{-0.15cm}3 - ${\cal M}_{\rm h, 2}$}
& 3.2\% & 3.5\% & 3.9\% & 5.7\% \\
\hline
\end{tabular}\label{valv_tab_mape_valid}
\end{table}
For each model, the respective compensator is shown below. The first compensator is obtained following
the strategy presented in Sec. \ref{sub_comp_hys}.
\vspace{0.2cm}
\noindent
1) The compensator for ${\cal M}_{\rm h}$ (\ref{mh_cns_valve}) is ${\cal M}_{\rm h,r}$, obtained with the application of steps \ref{step_1}, \ref{step_2}, \ref{step_3}, \ref{step_5} and \ref{step_6}. ${\cal M}_{\rm h,r}$ is compound by two quadratic polynomials like (\ref{mr_hys_2}) and (\ref{mr_hys_3}) with parameters: $c_{2}^{\rm L}=\hat{\theta}_4$, $c_{1}^{\rm L}(k)=\hat{\theta}_3-\hat{\theta}_4m(k-1)+\hat{\theta}_5r(k-1)$, $c_{0}^{\rm L}(k)=\hat{\theta}_1r(k)+\hat{\theta}_2r(k-1)+\hat{\theta}_3m(k-1)-\hat{\theta}_5r(k-1)m(k-1)-r(k+1)$, $c_{2}^{\rm U}=-\hat{\theta}_4$, $c_{1}^{\rm L}(k)=-\hat{\theta}_3+\hat{\theta}_4m(k-1)-\hat{\theta}_5r(k-1)$ and $c_{0}^{\rm L}(k)=\hat{\theta}_1r(k)+\hat{\theta}_2r(k-1)-\hat{\theta}_3m(k-1)+\hat{\theta}_5r(k-1)m(k-1)-r(k+1)$.
\vspace{0.2cm}
\noindent 2) The compensation law $m(t)$, for model ${\cal M}_{\rm bw}$, was proposed
by \cite{Rakotondr | 5,552 |
USWNT Defeats France In First Game Of Rio Olympics
(Photo by Pedro Vilela/Getty Images)
The rest of the world should know by now, the US Women's National Team isn't who you want to meet on the soccer field. Why should Rio 2016 be any different?
In the USWNT's first taste of the Rio Olympics, they shut out France for a 1-0 victory. It was Hope Solo's 200th career cap defending the goal for the Americans, and she came up with saves on six different occasions to protect Carli Lloyd's lone goal at the 63' mark. One game, one win.
In case you don't know, the women are the only soccer players in Rio representing the United States. The men's team didn't even make it to the Olympics, so there's no excuse not to cheer for the women...not to mention, they're the favorites to win gold.
Lloyd is kind of on fire for the USWNT too. The game winner was her 90th goal in international play, her 11th goal of 2016 and her eighth during Olympic competition.
Sometimes to score a goal, you just have to be in the right place at the right time.
Lloyd provided the offense, but Solo's heroic effort in the goal was the the main entertainment.
First off, no other goalie in the history of the USWNT reached 200 career caps for the team. In a historic start, she brought the beef.
France did all the necessary work to break the defense and create a chance several times, but Solo was there to deny them at every turn. Once, she tapped a ball deftly over the bar, and another time her feet clamped down like a trap on a ball that was headed between her legs. Nice try<|fim_middle|> the rest of the USWNT keeps playing like this, you can hand them their gold medal. It will go right next to their other gold medals on the mantle.
Say it with me, "USA...USA...USA!" Aren't the Rio Olympics fun when you're watching from your couch?
Filed Under: rio 2016, USWNT | , France, but not today.
#FRA so close to taking the lead but @hopesolo tips @WRenard effort onto the bar! #rio2016#uswnt#USAFRA
Video: BBC pic.twitter.com/A4ZRmz5avs
— Womens Soccer United (@WomensSoccerUtd) August 6, 2016
i love hope solo pic.twitter.com/d5gBQxdk6b
— , (@catleysharris) August 6, 2016
Some people might think the US Men's Basketball team is America's most dominant sport at the Olympics, but they're wrong. If Solo, Lloyd and | 147 |
Let's be real. It is estimated that 80 percent of New Year's resolutions don't even make it past the second week of February. That means most people really only make January resolutions. They are not really committed, just following a New Year's tradition that soon becomes Auld Lang Syne — loosely translated to "days gone by." It's really time to stop making New Year's resolutions.
Honestly<|fim_middle|>iedbarnes. com, or visit www.drstephaniedbarnes.com. | , you don't need a new year to create a new life. Jan. 1 is a convenient starting date, but there's no time like today to begin the changes you need to transform your life. Ditch the New Year's resolutions and begin the "new you" decisions.
Resolutions by definition are "a firm decision to do or not to do something." However, we often shortchange this act by making them aspirational. A true decision is a powerful action. It is a choice to cut off all options but the one that leads to your goal. A true decision is laser focused on the outcome. This means choosing to do or not to do actions that only will result in the new direction. It's like putting blinders on, but this time, these blinders block out procrastination, fear, anxiety and the ubiquitous option to quit.
Your decisions need a strategy.
An aspiration is just mere recitation of what you wish you could do. A strategy is a detailed road map for how you will do it. You need these critical components: a mindset fixed firmly on the desired outcome, a detailed layout of the needed resources, anticipated obstacles, critical success factors, solutions for overcoming the obstacles and a blueprint of how it all works together. This way, you are not navigating aimlessly, but following a customized map.
Let's face it — you need help. Even the Lone Ranger did not work alone. We also need to be real that you are more accountable to others than you are to yourself. Think about how you will show up for someone else and skip out on yourself. Use that to your advantage and enlist help in getting your goals accomplished. You can engage an accountability partner, coach or group of people going in the same direction. Don't recruit people who are not really going to hold you accountable. You need a partnership with someone who will not let you give up and will give you just the right mix of encouragement, criticism and coaching to keep you headed in the right direction.
Seriously, review it daily. Write up your plan and publish it. Put it on your mirror. Record it and listen to it. Have it as your screensaver. Put it in your wallet. Reviewing your plan daily tunes your mind to the frequency of progress. It conditions your mind to actually believe that you should be doing something. It becomes your conscience telling you that you need to keep moving when you want to quit. It becomes your motivator, reminding you of how far you've come. It becomes the celebration singing your praises of what you have actually achieved. If you really want positive reinforcement, share the list with someone else. Publication is the best accountability tool. No one really wants the embarrassment of admitting that they did not do what they said they would do.
Don't set yourself up for failure by setting a goal you can't reach. There are stretch goals, and there are "you've gotta be kidding me" goals. We often can't keep our resolutions because we plan to go from couch potato to marathon runner in 30 days. Sometimes that is a literal goal. The fact is that you've got to break your goals into reasonable increments that allow you to build up the strength, discipline and stamina to have sustained performance. Research what it really takes to accomplish the goal so you can appropriately plan out what works for you. Challenge yourself to do more, but don't push yourself to the breaking point where you can't reasonably achieve the goal.
Set a real goal, not an aspiration. A real goal is measurable in quantifiable terms. "I want to be rich" is aspirational. What does "rich" mean? I want to have a net worth of $100,000 is measurable. You can quantify $100,000. You can measure it, know when you've hit it and calculate how far away you are. "I want to be successful" is also aspirational. What does success mean? How will you know when you get there? Be sure to state your success goals in measurable terms. For every goal you set, identify at least one action that it takes to accomplish it. When you state your goals in action terms, it is easy to get moving.
Truthfully, we bail on our resolutions because they are not really that significant. Set a goal that really means something to you. You need to understand the compelling reason for completion. How will your life change as a result of achieving your goal? How will your life suffer from staying the same? Rather than setting 50 million goals, set one to three. That's right — one to three goals. Why? You can only focus on one direction. Human brains were not meant to multitask. Pick the most significant goals and laser focus on them. You always can set new ones when you finish. You will get overwhelmed looking at a list of 20 things rather than focusing on a list of three things. Make it meaningful, and make it focused. And if you have 20 things you want to accomplish, break them down into quarters and focus on them in increments.
It's time to get real about resolutions. Don't put the pressure on Jan. 1. Start acting on them now. Get yourself an accountability mechanism. Focus on what matters. Put more emphasis on action than on aspiration. Do something every day; it takes 21 days to form a habit. Set your plans in 30-day cycles, 21 days to form the habit and nine to make it stick. Statistics have proven that most resolutions only last about 30 days anyway. Use the momentum of the resolution power to make powerful moves towards your goals — 30 days at a time.
Stephanie D. Barnes is an attorney, author, speaker and career strategist. She can be reached at stephanie@drstephan | 1,192 |
Interview: Erin Karpluk Tries to Fix Past Mistakes
A few weeks back, SOAPnet premiered its new original series, Being Erica, which follows the life of 32-year-old Erica Strange, who is given the chance to revisit various events from her past that caused regret so she can attempt to fix them. The show has been met with rave reviews, and its talented star, Erin Karpluk, deserves most of the credit.
Erin explains what drew her to the character of Erica: "I loved the character, because she is just an average gal, but she's so flawed and awkward. And yet she is resilient in overcoming all of the adversity that has been thrown at her in life. She is very candid and funny. It is the opportunity of a lifetime to get a chance to go back in time with the foresight, the life experiences and past mistakes, and trying to overcome them. The stakes are always really high in playing this character, and it's a lot of fun."
Being Erica has the honesty and humor of My So-Called Life and the time-travel/fantasy aspect of Quantum Leap. And, like the latter, Erica realizes that "when she does go back in time, she has a very big responsibility, and she knows that what she does in the past really affects those around her. The things that she learns isn't 'paint-by-numbers,' it's messy, just like life."
And, just like life, Erica has her flaws. "The appeal of the show and the character is that everyone has regrets, and we all make mistakes in life," Erin says. "We all fall down in our career and life, and we pick ourselves up and push on. I can really identify with her. She's a relatable gal."
Unlike many nighttime dramas, Being Erica appeals to men and women alike. Erin explains: "It's a comedy/drama, and some of the themes are very awkward, like losing your virginity. We cover all the different spheres in life, like spirituality,<|fim_middle|> is faced with more than he can handle.
•Kay fools the doctor and Jill when she announces she is really Marge, but will her plan take her one step back in proving her true identity?
•After seeing Adam is losing his eyesight, Victor makes a promise to him.
•Karen threatens Tyra and gives Neil an ultimatum. Will Neil adhere to her demands?
•Phillip and Grady face off about Lizzie.
•Lizzie and Bill are reunited.
•Frank (Frank Dicopoulos, pictured) proposes to Natalia.
•Marina and Mallet celebrate with baby Henry.
•Parker and Liberty (Meredith Hagner, pictured) make a run for it.
•Henry throws a wrench in Katie, Brad and Vienna's plans.
•Alison and Jade face off.
•Brian makes an unexpected return.
Cady McClain Returns to ATWT
It's official: Cady McClain is returning to As the World Turns as Rosanna beginning May 20. I hope she gets a juicy story line this time! What do you think?
Labels: ATWT, Cady McClain, casting, Rosanna Cabot
Interview: Erin Karpluk Tries to Fix Past Mistakes... | friendships, romantic relationships, career, family — everyone can relate to that because those are our different spheres in life."
Another aspect that many of us can relate to is the throwback to the late-'80s/ early '90s fashions during the time-travel sequences. Erin and her cast mates had a lot of fun relieving the fashion, and fashion blunders, of the time.
"The cast of (the original) 90210, that was our go-to template for fashion during the flashbacks — Shannen Doherty with the bangs and the really white foundation and the thick eyebrows. We had so much fun with the Doc Martens and all the wardrobe. But the hyper-color shirts and the Mom jeans, I could do without those.
"And the music is the best. Music is one of those things for sense memory that can flip you right back to that grade 9 dance when you are slow-dancing to Guns N' Roses 'November Rain.' It takes you right back to that time and place."
Even if you might have missed the first few episodes, you should still tune in and catch yourself up. Erin says: "Every episode takes on an entirely different feel. As I watch them now, I am finding that they are all like mini movies. But they're not all tied up with a cute little bow at the end of every episode, with Erica learning her lesson for the week. Sometimes when she goes back to fix the regret, she realizes that it wasn't really a regret at all. It was just a hard lesson to learn."
Being Erica airs on SOAPnet Thursday nights at 10 ET/PT.
Labels: Being Erica, Erin Karpluk, Interview
ATWT's Parker Receives Young Artist Nod
Mick Hazen (Parker, As the World Turns) received a Young Artist Award nomination for Best Performance in a TV Series as a Recurring Young Actor. The awards will be presented on Sunday, March 29th at the Globe Theater at Universal Studios. For more information please visit http://www.youngartistawards.org/.
In other ATWT news:
Kelley Menighan Hensley (Emily) and her husband, Jon Hensley (Holden), as well as Michael Park (Jack) and Martha Byrne (ex-Lily) are scheduled to attend the Inaugural Angels for Hope Gala on Friday, May 29th from 7 p.m. to 11 p.m. at The Estate at Florentine Gardens, which is located at 97 Rivervale Road in River Vale, NJ. Angels for Hope is the first major fundraising event to be held on behalf of St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Bergen County. Guests will enjoy a night of fine dining, cocktails, music and dancing along with a unique live and silent auction. Tickets are $200 each and seating is limited. Please reserve early. Please visit http://www.stjude.org/angelsforhopeorcall212-239-3239for reservations.
AS THE WORLD TURNS FAN CLUB LUNCHEON 2009:
Luncheon, autograph and photo sessions. Meet the Cast of As the World Turns on Saturday, April 18th from from 12 noon until 4 p.m. (Doors Open at 10:30 a.m.) at the Marriott Marquis, 1535 Broadway (Between 45th & 46th St.), New York, NY.
Here are the specifics: Current Fan Club Members pay $125 per ticket while non-Fan Club Members pay $135 per ticket. Children under 5 years of age are not permitted. If you wish to sit together your money must be mailed in together, no exceptions. Ten people per table. Additional People cannot be added to your party or table at a later date! There are no refunds or credits, no exceptions. Seating will be limited to the first 500 people. Money order (U.S. Funds only) to be made payable to: AS THE WORLD TURNS FAN CLUB (Canada - We will only accept Postal Money Orders in U.S. Funds) (All other Countries - We will only accept International Money Orders in U.S. Funds) Please mail to: AS THE WORLD TURNS FAN CLUB Luncheon Tickets P.O. Box 455 Lynbrook, NY 11563-0455
Please include a self-addressed, stamped envelope. Video cameras are not permitted at the luncheon. There are a limited number of rooms available at the Marriott Marquis at a special rate. Friday, Saturday, Sunday & Monday nights, single or double is $329. For hotel reservations please call (800) 843-4898 and mention As The World Turns Fan Club. More Information: http://www.officialatwtfanclub.com/
Labels: ATWT, Jon Hensley, Kelley Menighan Hensley, Martha Byrne, Michael Park, Mick Hazen, news
GL's Remy Meets Ugly Betty
Lawrence Saint-Victor (Remy, Guiding Light) will guest star opposite Vanessa Williams in an upcoming episode of ABC's Ugly Betty. The episode is set to air on Thursday, March 19th (check local listings).
In other GL news:
Robert Bogue (Mallet) and Mandy Bruno (Marina) recently announced their engagement and plans to marry in spring 2010.
Fiona Hutchison returns as Jenna on Tuesday, March 17th and Wednesday, March 18th.
Ron Raines (Alan) appears with VOX – The Rob Seible Singers in Crossroads of America, a concert featuring music of American composers such as Rorem, Copland, Nelson, Daugherty, Mechem, Rodgers and Hammerstein, Kander and Ebb, and Lerner and Loewe. The concert will be held at the Hobby Center in Houston, TX on Tuesday, April 7th at 8 p.m. For more information or to order tickets, go to http://www.vox-rss.com/VOX/Season2008.html
Frank Dicopoulos (Frank) is featured as the voice of "Dean the Dog" in the companion CD to the children's book Loukoumi's Good Deeds. Other celebrities featured include Jennifer Aniston, Olympia Dukakis, and Gloria Gaynor. The book will be on sale April 1st, and a portion of the proceeds will go to St. Jude Children's Research Hospital. For more information, go to http://www.loukoumi.com//ohttp://www.loukoumi.com/.
Labels: Appearances, Fiona Hutchison, Frank Dicopoulos, GL, Lawrence Saint-Victor, Mandy Bruno, Robert Bogue, Ron Raines
Leslie Kay on Ghost Whisperer
Lesli Kay (Felicia on The Bold and the Beautiful) will play a daytime actress on a special episode of CBS's Ghost Whisperer. In the episode, Lesli portrays a soap star who visits the fictional town of Grandview to tape her show on location. Of course, the cast and crew bring a ghost along with them. You won't want to miss it! Tune in on Friday, April 24, 2009 at 8:00 p.m.
Labels: Appearances, BB, Felicia Forrester, Lesli Kay
Kate has surprising news for Claudia.
Spinelli is no match for the mystery woman.
Lucky and Elizabeth (Rebecca Herbst, pictured) come to a mutual understanding.
Robin accidentally places Emma in jeopardy.
Spinelli is in grave danger.
Lucky doesn't hit it off with Ethan.
Sonny and Carly are there for each other.
Robin luckily avoids a potential tragedy.
Jason, Sam and Winifred set out to rescue Spinelli.
Sonny likes the way Claudia thinks.
Robin's behavior grows more and more unpredictable.
Nikolas is upset by Lucky's friendship with Rebecca.
Michael (Chris Stack, pictured) makes an alarming discovery while examining Matthew.
Todd tries to convince Starr he's innocent.
Stacy makes the next move in her wicked scheme.
Cole's night goes from bad to worse.
Starr reminds Todd of his misdeeds.
Gigi falls victim to Stacy's machinations.
John is on the hunt for a killer.
Gigi kicks Stacy to the curb.
Marcie makes a surprising discovery.
Bo & Nora and Rex & Gigi receive devastating news.
Stacy wants to find out what Roxy's hiding.
Natalie and Jared get closer to the truth.
Zach suspects that Ryan is up to no good.
Kendall no longer trusts Zach.
Annie (Melissa Claire Egan, pictured) might be growing too attached to Aidan.
Aidan strikes a deal with Zach.
Zach accuses Kendall of having never stopped loving Ryan.
David puts the screws to Amanda.
David double crosses Amanda.
Zach suspects Ryan is out to get Kendall for himself.
Aidan and Annie take their relationship to a new level.
Aidan agrees to do Zach's dirty work.
Zach and Reese end up in a kiss.
A furious JR unleashes a tirade against Amanda.
•Philip vows to make Tony pay.
•Kate heads to Vegas to stop Chloe (Nadia Bjorlin, pictured) and Lucas from getting married.
•Brady tells Philip to stay the hell away from Nicole.
•Bo gets jealous when he sees Hope's arm around Daniel.
•Stefano hints to EJ that Nicole is hiding something.
Thursday – Tony reveals to Nicole that he knows the truth.
Friday – EJ overhears Sami saying that she's going to pick up Grace and bring her baby home.
•Rick (Kyle Lowder, pictured) blows up at Ridge.
•Lt. Baker and Charlie Baker find evidence leading them to a prime suspect.
•Donna fears that Marcus' resentment drove him to committing a serious crime.
•Pam's past transgressions come back to haunt her.
•Felicia is suspicious of Thorne's association with Rocco.
•While desperately trying to hold himself together from the torment of Clint, Kevin (Greg Rikaart, pictured) | 2,141 |
Paul Laurence Dunbar (* 27. Juni 1872 in Dayton, Ohio; † 9. Februar 1906 ebenda) war ein US-amerikanischer Schriftsteller. Er war einer der ersten afroamerikanischen Dichter, die in den gesamten Vereinigten Staaten Anerkennung erlangten.
Leben
Dunbar war der Sohn ehemaliger Sklaven aus Kentucky. Er besuchte in Dayton die High School; dort war er der einzige Afro-Amerikaner in seiner Klasse. Einer seiner Klassenkameraden war Orville Wright, für dessen Familie Pauls Mutter arbeitete. Bereits während der Schulzeit zeigte er erste literarische Begabung, war Mitglied des Literaturzirkels und gab die Schulzeitung heraus. Mit Unterstützung der Brüder Wright konnte er seine erste Zeitung The Dayton Tattler herausgeben.
Nach der Highschool zwangen ihn die finanziellen Umstände, als Liftboy zu arbeiten. Bei einem Treffen der Western Association of Writers 1892 trug er auf Einladung eines ehemaligen Lehrers Gedichte vor und beeindruckte dabei derart, dass er ein Empfehlungsschreiben des bekannten Dichters James Whitcomb Riley erhielt. Im selben Jahr veröffentlichte er seinen ersten Gedichtband Oak and ivy. Nach seinem Umzug nach Chicago traf er dort auf Frederick Douglass, der ihn als "the most promising young colored man in America (den vielversprechendsten jungen farbigen Mann in Amerika)" bezeichnete. Dunbars Gedichte erschienen in bekannten Zeitungen wie der New York Times. Mit seiner zweiten Gedichtsammlung Majors and Minors – Majors steht für Texte in Standard-Englisch und Minors für Texte in Dialekt – wurde er so erfolgreich, dass man ihn zu einer sechsmonatigen Vortragsreise nach England einlud. Nach seiner Rückkehr nach Amerika erhielt er eine Anstellung bei der Library of Congress in Washington. Dort traf und heiratete er die Autorin Alice Ruth Moore. In Washington entstanden ein weiterer Roman sowie zwei Gedichtsammlungen. Ebenso entstanden in dieser Zeit einige Libretti. Als Dunbar 1898 an Tuberkulose erkrankte, kehrte er nach Dayton zurück und widmete sich ausschließlich dem Schreiben und Lesungen. 1902 trennte er sich von seiner Frau. Seine Grabstätte findet sich auf dem Woodland Cemetery and Arboretum in Dayton.
Werk
Dunbar stellte in seinen Romanen und Gedichten, häufig unter Verwendung von Dialekt, die Erfahrungen von Afroamerikanern und den alten Süden der USA dar. Durch seine abwechslungsreiche Sprache erreichte er ein breites Publikum.
Werke (Auswahl)
Oak and ivy (1893)
Lyrics of love and laughter (1903)
Lyrics of sunshine and shadow (1905)
The collected novels of Paul Laurence Dunbar<|fim_middle|> Laurence Dunbar, Boston, Mass., 1979
Siehe auch
The Voice of the Negro
Weblinks
Einträge bei WorldCat
Einzelnachweise
Autor
Literatur (19. Jahrhundert)
Literatur (Englisch)
Literatur (Vereinigte Staaten)
Lyrik
Roman, Epik
Librettist
Person (Ohio)
Person (Afroamerikanische Kultur)
US-Amerikaner
Geboren 1872
Gestorben 1906
Mann | , edited by Herbert Woodward Martin, Ronald Primeau, and Gene Andrew Jarrett, Athens, Ohio: Ohio University Press, 2012, ISBN 978-0-8214-2007-2
Literatur
A. Gayle: Oak and Ivy. A biography of Paul Laurence Dunbar, Garden City, New York, 1971
Gene Andrew Jarrett: Paul Laurence Dunbar : the life and times of a caged bird, Princeton : Princeton University Press, 2022, ISBN 978-0-691-15052-9
P. Revell: Paul | 143 |
Favorite matrix 142-p. Kol nidre / Gershon Sirota
Kol nidre (Primary title) Disc label
Description: Tenor vocal solo, with vocal chorus and orchestra
Information on this recording derives from label copy and has not been verified from any other primary sources or evaluated by a DAHR editor, except as indicated. It is included here as it has been digitized by the University of California Santa Barbara.
Source(s): Lindström project (recording date and location); Rigler-Deutsch Index; disc.
Discography of American Historical Record<|fim_middle|> Gershon Sirota. (2023). In Discography of American Historical Recordings. Retrieved January 28, 2023, from https://adp.library.ucsb.edu/index.php/matrix/detail/2000106018/142-p-Kol_nidre.
"Favorite matrix 142-p. Kol nidre / Gershon Sirota." Discography of American Historical Recordings. UC Santa Barbara Library, 2023. Web. 28 January 2023. | ings, s.v. "Favorite matrix 142-p. Kol nidre / Gershon Sirota," accessed January 28, 2023, https://adp.library.ucsb.edu/index.php/matrix/detail/2000106018/142-p-Kol_nidre.
Favorite matrix 142-p. Kol nidre / | 84 |
All Years of the Dog aren't the same in the Chinese zodiac. The last one came in 2006 when Chinese shares jumped 78% amid the country's final year of a powerful long-term stock market rise. That, however, was a year of the fire dog, more explosive than the current version, a stable earth dog.
Investors, take note: 2018 won't be as stellar as 2006, but nicely profitable.
Howard Wang, portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management in Hong Kong, notes that at the start of this year, investors and analysts favored value stocks that could do well in an inflationary environment. But he thinks that could change as the Year of the Dog progresses, with emphasis shifting back toward growth areas like technology, health care, and consumer-discretionary shares.
"What has completely changed in the past year is investors' perception," Wang says. "What's been powering growth and earnings in China is technology or the likes of Alibaba Group Holding (ticker: BABA), Tencent Holdings (0700.Hong Kong), and Baidu (BIDU), whose growth is uncorrelated to the U.S. economy or the global economy because they are China-focused, and indeed even uncorrelated to the domestic economy in China because they are disrupting traditional business models," he says. As a result, they're growing faster than the local or global economies.
Wang notes that money continues to pour<|fim_middle|> producer.
Investors shouldn't plan on a reprise of 2017's 50% rise, warns Wang, but can look forward to steady gains in the Year of the Dog. | into emerging market equities, particularly in China, where investors increasingly see sustainable earnings growth. "Valuations might be a concern in the U.S., but they are not a concern in China," adds Wang. Chinese equities now trade at 14.8 times this year's earnings. Consensus forecasts say corporate profits will grow 18.8% this year and 16% next year. That's not as strong as last year's 31% surge, though "still relatively high," says Richard Farrell, portfolio manager for RBC Global Asset Management in London, who manages part of firm's emerging markets portfolio.
FARRELL EXPECTS STRONG performance from Chinese stocks again this year, though more broadly based than last year. He pinpoints financials, including insurance. However, he'd steer clear of the big four state banks, which lend to state enterprises and large companies, focusing instead on smaller banks catering to increasingly affluent consumers. For some of the same reasons he likes insurance., which combines personal savings and property functions. One of the stocks in his portfolio is Ping An Insurance (2318.Hong Kong), the No. 2 life insurer and a big financial-technology play through its investments.
Aside from tech stocks like Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu, Wang likes white-goods maker Haier (1169.Hong Kong), which 18 months ago acquired the appliance unit of General Electric (GE). Haier, he says, is insulated from the Trump administration's proposed tariffs on washing machines because it has production facilities in the U.S.
JPMorgan's China funds are "invested across a whole spectrum of health care business models because we see it as a big, broad, uncorrelated opportunity," says Wang. That includes Jiangsu Hengrui (600276.China), which is an research-and-development leader in pharmaceuticals; China Resources Phoenix (1515.Hong Kong), a play on hospital privatization in China; and Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical (600867.China), a leading biosimilar-drug | 434 |
At Lewis Orth<|fim_middle|> your life.
Our practice is proud to offer our patients a wide array of the most advanced and effective orthodontic treatments, including Invisalign® and Invisalign Teen® clear aligners, and Damon® Smile time-efficient braces.
We look forward to serving you and your family and providing you with the most rewarding orthodontic experiences in our practice. When you're ready for unmatched orthodontic care, contact our Edmond, OK orthodontic office to schedule a complimentary consultation for the members of your family or yourself. A lifetime of your best smiles starts here, so call today! | odontics, Dr. Shannon Lewis and her patient-centered team have been providing the families of the Edmond, Guthrie, and Deer Creek, Oklahoma communities with nothing but the highest quality of orthodontic care and concern, in a warm, friendly, and family-oriented environment, since 2005. With complete focus on your health, happiness, and comfort, Dr. Lewis aims to give you a beautiful and healthy smile that will stay with you for the rest of | 96 |
Only when we recognize that both sides of an issue or argument will have some merit, some usable contribution, some wisdom and some worth, can we bring together all our variety of thoughts and experiences to create imaginative, new options.
The polarization of incivility simply divides us into camps devoted to the destruction and dominance of the other side, often in ways that block our own ability to be reflective or to adapt when needed. But if we can ever set aside some of the barriers that we build to "win" we just might be able to replace them with bridges that bring us together in amazing new ways.
Here's some great work written on the creativity that holds opposing ideas in a constructive tension… The Opposable Mind by Roger Martin. It's a great book that I highly recommend!
This entry was posted in October 20<|fim_middle|>, polarization, unity. | 12 Civility and tagged Civility, Creativity, opposable mind, opposing ideas | 18 |
Enhancing Hopes For Life
Vihaan
Enhance Project
Volunteers Corner
KNP+ team strives to build the capacity of district networks through various advocacies with stakeholders. Each and every district network has one community advocate (Person who has trained through advocacy strategic workshop) who is advocating on behalf of PLHA in their respective District network. This unit is always recommending government and partners that people living<|fim_middle|>'s HIV response. People living with HIV formed the district local networks themselves and their engagement and leadership remain at the core of the Networks efforts and activities. Although Network seeks technical support from professionals, the organization's bylaws stipulate that its primary oversight body, the executive board comprises only people living with HIV.
· Service delivery: KNP+ through its district networks constantly providing adequate treatment and prevention assistance to the growing number of desperate people in Karnataka. Counseling, treatment education, positive living, forming of support net (similar to SHG), linking those groups to bank loans to start IGP activities tec.
Research and Documentation
To implement the care and treatment and prevention program across the state, KNP+ team started with groundwork by registering district level networks implemented the project in the district. In initial years the network number is 10 and at the end of 2010 that covered 29 districts in Karnataka. To prepare community treatment educators and effective peer counseling for its infected people, KNP+ published a handbook called 'Navajeevana'. With the financial and technical support of project funders, Karnataka Health Promotion Trust, KNP+ published a module on Institutional Building, Organization Development, and Social schemes in the year 2010. Every year KNP+ involved in developing IEC materials in the State (Information, Education, and Communication) and distributing to district networks. Annually KNP+ publishing organization annual report which consists of information on network efforts made to the betterment of PLHA and its financial statement.
KNP+ also supported various research studies conducted by individual bodies on stigma discrimination, HIV and pregnancy, the mental health of PLHIV, PLHIV insurance in the state. Recently KNP+ conducted a study on reproductive health rights of women living with HIV/AIDS assigned by ICW Asia Specific in two districts of Karnataka i.e. Bangalore Urban and Mysore.
Address: Ist floor, Old Administrative Building, Near RMC Yard Police Station, Tumkur Road, Yeshwanthpur, Bangalore – 560022
Gmail: knppluz@gmail.com
Copyright © 2021 Enhancing Hopes For Life | FF Multipurpose by Firefly Themes | with HIV should always be involved in and able to influence debates about health and social policy at all levels. Have the right to the same amount of information and level of support and health care available to all members of society. They are having regular contact with KNP+ state advocacy officers while facing issues in their respective districts.
Network building
The HIV positive networks in the state and district were founded on the principles of self-help. From the beginning, people living with HIV have been responsible for the network's growth and 'supposedly' strategic importance in the state | 112 |
Q: Control mouse with keyboard in Ubuntu I'm looking for a program that I can use to control the mouse from the keyboard.
I think a video can explain it much better than I could, so please check out Mouser from lifehacker.com:
http://lifehacker.com/212816/hack-attack-operate-your-mouse-with-your-keyboard
Unfortunately, it's only for Windows, but something like this would be the perfect solution.
I found a lot of help on mapping keys to programs, but nothing about mapping keys to mouse control.
A: It can help out partially . System -> Settings -> Assistive Technologies; then Keyboard Accessibility, under "Mouse Buttons"
Also using Shortcuts may help you too.
another way is using ctrl-shift-numlock that is supposed to be the key combo that will let you move the cursor with the keyboard. But, I can't very sure that it works, since my laptop doesn't have a dedicated numlock key. you can control the mouse from keyboard. Keys / and * on the numpad select left mouse click and right mouse click respectively. Mouse click is done by 5 on the numpad.
A: In Ubuntu 11, Gnome I found this in System -> Preferences -> Keyboard and then Mouse Keys tab and check Pointer can be controlled using keypad.
To access System menu use ALT+F1 shortcut.
A: I also wanted to control the mouse from the keyboard, but with a different set of actions for keys. I implemented this functionality with a little utility program that I've put up on GitHub:
https://github.com/SalmonChris/KeyboardMouse
A: If you look at that HackaDay article, it says he created Mouser.exe after viewing a presentation from a guy at Google. Google's<|fim_middle|>-settings
*Universal Access
*Pointing and Clicking tab
*Switch off the key that says Mouse keys.
| known for its use of linux, right? One of the links from your HackaDay article took me here: http://www.semicomplete.com/projects/keynav/
And here is a demo of keynav in action
Just tested on Ubuntu 10.10 and it works fine. I had to install libxdo-dev before it would build (make), but then it ran fine. Note there's no 'make install' target, so just copy the keynav binary it builds to someplace in your path (~/bin, /opt/bin, etc).
Doesn't work awesome with dual monitors.Edit: NM. Split at least once, than use Shift+[hjkl] to move the divider around. That can jump you to the other screen.
A: For Ubuntu users you can try:
*
*System | 170 |
Your kids are talking…are you listening?
Listening …we all need to do more of this…so stop forming your answer when you should be listening…stop texting when you should be listening…stop talking on your cellphone when you should be listening.
You will be very surprised about what you will learn if you become a listener rather than a rapid responder…or a texting wizard.
Car rides are great places for conversations with<|fim_middle|> Angeles Mom. | kids or for eaves dropping on their discussions…try listening when you are in the kitchen and your kids are playing or goofing around in the adjoining room.
Walking with your little one in a stroller can stimulate some interesting verbal exchanges…make a recording if you dare.
Challenge yourself to become a listener…see what you learn…let me know what you learn. I would love to hear from you.
This post was inspired by Jessica Gottlieb's recent post linked below…Jessica's blog is a must read…she has a way with words and is amazingly honest with her thoughts.
Listening | Jessica Gottlieb A Los | 127 |
About IPDC
UNESCO-IPDC Prize
About IFAP
IFAP Success Stories
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Communication and Information Events
Events websites
Databases and software
UNESCO » Communication and Information » Themes » Media development » Community media
Current Field Action
Leg<|fim_middle|>DC)
UNESCO Chair on Community Media
UNESCO Guatemala
UNESCO Montevideo
Council of Europe - Declaration of the Committee of Ministers on the role of community media in promoting social cohesion and intercultural dialogue
The NGO Committee on the Status of Women, NY
>> See the photos
Almudena Martínez García
Mail: a.martinez-garcia(at)unesco.org | islative and Enabling Environment
Radio in Humanitarian Assistance
Community Media Sustainability: Strengthening Policies and Funding
© Rukmin Wijemanne - Community radio in Pemba, Zanzibar.
Community media are characterized by their accountability to the communities they serve. They emerge as a result of popular movements that strive to attain an important space in citizen participation and demand the right to own and operate free from political or commercial interference.
As an alternative medium to public and commercial media, community media engage in a social agenda amplifying views and concerns about context specific issues and facilitating public platforms for debate and discussion. They are independent, community owned and run media.
Community radio in particular has grown in numbers worldwide delivering an outreach mechanism for increased access to education, self-expression and communication among rural and hard to reach grassroots populations. The management, programming schedule and content of community radio is driven by the involvement and participation of community members and community decision-making bodies that demonstrate a sense of ownership about their own development agenda and become self-empowered to publicly express opinion, debate issues, carry out dialogue, promote culture, community history and language.
UNESCO recognizes that the presence of community radio is a sign of media pluralism, diversity of content, and the representation of a society's different groups and interests. Community radio encourage open dialogue, local transparency and a voice to the voiceless.
Community media is one that is operated:
in the community,
for the community,
about the community and
by the community.
The community can be territorial or geographical - a township, village, district or island. It can also be a group of people with common interests, who are not necessarily living in one defined territory.
Consequently, community radio can be managed or controlled by one group, by combined groups, or of people such as women, children, farmers, fisher folk, ethnic groups, or senior citizens.
What distinguishes community radio from other media is the high level of people's participation, both in management and program production aspects. Furthermore, individual community members and local institutions are the principal sources of support for its operation.
Inception workshop held for community radio stations under UNESCO/SIDA project in Uganda
Rwanda community radio stations supported by SIDA/UNESCO project
UNESCO facilitates support for community media
Community radio stations in Kenya to exercise more accountability in the interest of the public
Publications on Community Media
Publications by the Communication and Information Sector
Exploring the Evolving Mediascape: Towards updating strategies to face challenges and seize opportunities
UNESCO/WSIS Report 2013
By Divina Frau-Meigs
Média : une radio des jeunes pour la promotion d'une culture de paix (in French)
UNESCO's support for Local radios changing lives in Southern Africa
International Day of the World's Indigenous People 2012 (9 August)
International Programme for the Development of Communication (IP | 595 |
HomeNewsHealth boss says judicial review delay over hyper-acute stroke units would "result in more deaths"
Health boss says judicial review delay over hyper-acute stroke units would "result in more deaths"
February 20, 2019 Kathy Bailes News 11
QEQM Photo Chris Constantine
The Director for the Kent and Medway Stroke Review says delays to plans for new hyper-acute stroke units will inevitably result in 'more deaths and more disability.'
Rachel Jones has responded to calls from health campaigners who want the decision to axe QEQM's acute unit in favour of a specialist unit at Ashford referred back to government by Kent County Council's health overview committee when they meet on March 1. Suggestions from county councillor Karen Constantine and others are that the decision should be taken to judicial review.
A final decision on the location for three hyper-acute stroke units (HASUs) across Kent & Medway was confirmed by the Joint Committee of Clinical Commissioning Groups (JCCCG) at a meeting in Maidstone on February 14.
The units will be at Darent Valley Hospital, Maidstone Hospital and William Harvey Hospital – meaning the closure of acute services at Margate's QEQM Hospital as well as at Medway Hospital, Tunbridge Wells Hospital, and Kent & Canterbury Hospital – which has already had its service withdrawn due to the removal of training doctors by Health Education England in March 2017
The plan is for Darent Valley to have a 34 bed unit, Maidstone General Hospital 38 beds and William Harvey Hospital 52 beds.
One of the SONiK rallies protesting at the hyper-acute stroke unit proposals Photo Christine Tongue
A sustained campaign against the proposals has been conducted for more than a year by Save Our NHS in Kent, isle county councillors and many members of the public.
SONiK has been fighting for a fourth HASU at QEQM and is now urging members of the health scrutiny committee to vote to refer the plan back to government.
Cllr Constantine said if the referral failed the issue may have to go to the courts. She said:" It's time to come together to start a Judicial Review (a court proceeding where a judge reviews the lawfulness of a decision or action made by a public body.) This won't be easy but working together I believe we can do it."
Rachel Jones said people's concerns were understandable but the decision had been reached on the basis of "the huge body of evidence set out by the Royal College of Physicians' 2016 guidelines on stroke."
She added: "As the stroke consultants said recently, the reality is, sadly, that any stroke patient who dies within a few hours of having a stroke would almost certainly have died whether they were at home, in an ambulance or being cared for in the best stroke unit in the world.
"For the very small percentage of patients whose strokes are the cause of almost instant death, or who fall into a coma and never wake up, currently little can be done.
"However most people will survive their stroke, and the critical factor for them is how we can reduce their risk of dying in the following days, minimise their risk of long-term disability and therefore improve independence.
"While undertaking the stroke review, we have considered the health and wellbeing of the entire population who use Kent and Medway stroke services.
'Impact'
"We have carefully considered population growth, deprivation and travel times to potential hyper acute stroke units in our review. We believe the rigorous process that we have followed and the decision we made will enable us to best meet the needs of our whole population, and save an extra life a fortnight.
"We will, of course, comply with any requirements that a judicial review or referral to the Secretary of State brings but are aware that this will have an impact on the implementation of the HASUs across Kent and Medway. Any delay to implementation will inevitably lead to more deaths and more disability than if we are able to go ahead as planned."
The JCCCG expects the hyper-acute units at Darent Valley and Maidstone to go live in March<|fim_middle|>7 and with the team, the very best of equipment meaning more rapid scans and treatment once at the hospital.
"This stands in some contrast to the situation now, whereby journey time might be short, but patients enter the waiting queue of ambulance arrivals and delay during triage assessments."
Burglars target Dumpton post office
Thanet's top pub and best micro-pub of 2019 revealed | 2020 followed by the William Harvey Hospital in spring 2021.
A spokesman d=for campaigners SONIK said: "We are very interested to know where the new claim that an extra life will be saved every fortnight comes from, and we will be asking Rachel Jones to clarify. All the evidence we have seen shows a very different story – including a study that shows death rates can rise by 21%. You can read the SONIK report showing the dangers of relocating urgent stroke care so far way at https://bit.ly/2NdADsH. The list of problems with the stroke plans is long, and quite frankly, shocking."
Photo Carly Jeffrey
The decision has been branded "disappointing" by South Thanet MP Craig Mackinlay but he added that in light of the 'shamefully poor' stroke care across Kent and Medway – with QEQM rated a D from a possible A to E scoring – "more is the pity that we must wait until 2021 for the new configuration which will have better health outcomes, despite the issues of local accessibility."
He acknowledged fears that Thanet patients would have to travel too far, with journey times to Ashford taking over an hour but added: "I am somewhat reassured that the HASU formula ensures that specialist stroke teams are likely to be better prepared for arrival of patients, will have dedicated stroke staff 24/ | 293 |
Chad Blair: Some Grumbling Over Senate Committee Posts
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A few senators are upset about their assignments and say traditions are not being followed, but President Ron Kouchi says any complaints are baseless.
By Chad Blair / December 19, 2018
Hawaii State Senate committee assignments for the next two years announced earlier this month have several senators griping about the process.
Four senators agreed to talk about their concerns about Senate President Ron Kouchi's leadership. They asked to speak anonymously because of concerns about working relationships.
They say that they were not asked which committees they wished to serve on, something they say has been the custom in recent sessions.
And some are serving on only three committees rather than four or five, as has sometimes been the case in the past.
And some senators don't sit on any of the so-called A-bracket committees, such as Ways and Means, Judiciary, and Commerce, Consumer Protection and Health. These are the committees that see the lion's share of legislation and carry the greatest influence.
Two freshmen senators, Jarrett Keohokalole and Sharon Moriwaki, were not assigned to WAM. Working directly on the budget is an ideal crash course in Legislating 101, which is why many Senate freshmen dating<|fim_middle|> Kalani English and WAM Chair Donovan Dela Cruz. It's primarily comprised of what might be called the Greater Opihi Faction (the saltwater limpets have tremendous sticking power). It was a variation of that faction that elevated Kouchi to the presidency in a May 2015 coup.
As with the state House of Representatives, whoever is in charge of the chamber calls the shots on who sits where. (Literally: Leadership makes office assignments, and not all offices at the Capitol are alike.) Kidani and English also sit on WAM.
Not everyone is grumbling.
Sen. Kai Kahele said he's never heard of customs or traditions regarding committee assignments.
"As far as committee assignments go, you are the first to tell me there is a problem of complaints," said Kai Kahele, the majority floor leader. "And when I took a look at committee assignments and how it was structured, I don't have a problem with it. It looks fair and balanced."
Kahele, who sits on four committees including WAM, said he was not aware of customs or traditions regarding committees.
"When it comes down to it, everyone wants to serve on WAM, everyone wants to be in leadership," said Kahele. "But there is only so many seats. You can't have 25 senators on WAM."
He added, "Not everyone gets what they want."
Adding to the mix is the departure this year of influential senators like Josh Green, Will Espero, Brickwood Galuteria and Jill Tokuda. There is also a Republican, freshman Kurt Favella, after a two-year absence of the GOP.
The committee kerfuffle comes as things at the Legislature are heating up.
On Monday, Gov. David Ige released his two-year executive budget focused on the perennial problems of education, affordable housing and homelessness.
On Wednesday, WAM and Sen. Donna Mercado Kim's Higher Education Committee are expected to grill University of Hawaii system officials on their budget and related matters.
A lawsuit from two good government advocacy groups is proceeding in 1st District Court. It challenges the Legislature's practice of gutting and replacing the content of bills.
Finally, Ige is seeing more Cabinet members depart. The latest is Budget and Finance Director Laurel Johnston, whose last day is Dec. 31.
Ige's top Cabinet members must obtain Senate confirmation for his second term. I'm hearing it could be a bumpy ride for some.
Hawaii State Senate Leadership and Committee Assignments 30th Legislature 2019 – 2020:
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Chad Blair
Chad Blair is the politics and opinion editor for Civil Beat. You can reach him by email at cblair@civilbeat.org or follow him on Twitter at @chadblairCB.
Use the RSS feed to subscribe to Chad Blair's posts today | back to at least 2005 served stints on WAM.
And of all 16 committees, only two in the 2019-2020 biennial session have more than five members — WAM (12 members) and CPH (seven). Some committees that in the past have had as many as seven or nine members now have five, making it easier to reach a quorum — and to control votes.
Senate President Ron Kouchi, second from right, conferring with colleagues during a floor session in April.
Nathan Eagle/Civil Beat
This may all seem like palace intrigue or insider baseball to some readers (and it is a little of both), but it is also important.
Committee assignments impact the ability of senators to serve their constituents through proposing legislation and voting directly on bills. A perch on WAM means a senator has a say on the state budget. And every senator wants to make sure his district gets money for capital improvement projects.
Kouchi, now in his fourth year at the top of the Senate crab bucket, strongly disagrees anything is amiss in his chamber. Reached by phone last week, he acknowledged that he did not send a memo to members this fall asking them what committees they favored. But he denied that it was customary.
"Everyone does it their own way," he said.
The Hawaii Senate on May 3 bid farewell to departing colleagues Jill Tokuda, Will Espero and Josh Green.
Kouchi dismissed as well the notion that all members usually serve on at least one A-bracket committee, and added it's "absolutely untrue" that freshmen senators traditionally sit on WAM. He even provided an example: Stanley Chang in 2017.
I asked Kouchi about the appointment of Dru Kanuha as majority caucus leader and his placement on four committees, including the coveted WAM, even though it's his first year. The president responded by telling me I had not done my homework because, if I had, I would know that former Sen. Shan Tsutsui had assumed the same leadership position his first year (in 2003) as well as Kouchi himself (in 2011).
"You don't even bother looking up this stuff," Kouchi said. "Allegations about special treatment are so far removed from being factually correct. There is no basis for truth."
Kouchi said final committee assignments could change before the 2019 Legislature begins Jan. 16.
"Anything is possible before session," he said.
It's All About Power
Here's another reality evident to anyone who has covered the Senate: There are only 25 seats, which means it takes just 13 to form a governing coalition.
The current leadership is much the same as it has been the last two years, too, with Kouchi on top along with Vice President Michelle Kidani, Majority Leader J. | 604 |
The Kalb<|fim_middle|>lin Group, The George Michael Sports Machine and It's Academic.
← University of Maryland University College Names Alan Drimmer, Ph.D., Senior Vice President and Chief Academic Officer
Exhibit Compares and Contrasts the Work of Three Abstract Painters →
About The Kalb Report
The Kalb Report is a series of forums on ethics and excellence in journalism co-produced by the National Press Club Journalism Institute, University of Maryland University College, the George Washington University School of Media and Public Affairs, Harvard's Shorenstein Center, and the Philip Merrill College of Journalism at University of Maryland.
The series is underwritten by a grant from the Ethics and Excellence in Journalism Foundation.
The Kalb Report Homepage | Report: Putin's Trump Card
Posted on March 26, 2018 by Bob Ludwig in Kalb Report and tagged Events, Student Life.
New York Times Chief White House Correspondent Peter Baker, Brookings Institution President Gen. John Allen, NPR Host Mary Louise Kelly, American Enterprise Institute Scholar Leon Aron Join Marvin Kalb for April 16 National Press Club Forum
Adelphi, Md. (March 26, 2018)—Russia's meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election may be just the tip of the iceberg for a former world power that is dealing with a crumbling economy and diminished reputation on the world stage.
With Vladimir Putin's re-election to another six-year term as president, what is the Russian leader's end game? Is Moscow trying to destabilize democracies around the world, including the mid-term elections in the U.S., in order to bolster its own standing? And what role is the Trump administration wittingly or unwittingly playing in Putin's plans?
New York Times Chief White House Correspondent Peter Baker, Brookings Institution President Gen. John Allen, NPR All Things Considered Host Mary Louise Kelly and American Enterprise Institute Scholar Leon Aron will join moderator Marvin Kalb to discuss Russia, Putin and his possible trump card.
The Kalb Report: Putin's Trump Card will take place in the main ballroom of the National Press Club (14th & F Street, NW, Washington, DC) at 8 p.m. on Monday, April 16.
"Nothing appears more important today than President Trump's relationship with Russia," said Marvin Kalb. "It is the source of a major investigation, a source of turmoil in U.S.-Russia relations and a mystery that must be resolved. I am thrilled to have this superb panel address this perplexing and potentially dangerous threat to our democracy."
The Kalb Report series is produced jointly by The National Press Club Journalism Institute, the George Washington University School of Media and Public Affairs, Harvard University's Shorenstein Center, University of Maryland University College and the Philip Merrill College of Journalism at the University of Maryland. For the 15th consecutive year, the series is underwritten by a grant from Ethics and Excellence in Journalism Foundation.
Since 1994, the partnership has produced 95 forums with guests including Justices Antonin Scalia and Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein, Rupert Murdoch, Diane Sawyer, Roger Ailes, Katie Couric, Bill O'Reilly, Bob Costas, Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred, Hillary Clinton, David McCullough, Nobel Laureate Elie Wiesel, and Walter Cronkite.
The Kalb Report was most recently honored with a Gold World Medal in the 2015 New York Festivals International Radio Awards competition for its program Writing History: Bob Woodward, Carl Bernstein and Journalism's Finest Hour. In 2012, the series received the overall Grand Award at the New York Festivals for Anchoring 911, The Day and the Decade with Charles Gibson, Brit Hume, Dan Rather, and Frank Sesno.
The Kalb Report series is distributed nationally by American Public Television. Oklahoma Educational Television Authority serves as the presenting station. The series airs on Maryland Public Television, Sirius-XM Satellite Radio and Federal News Radio in Washington, D.C. Each program is streamed live at press.org.
Moderator Marvin Kalb is Edward R. Murrow Professor Emeritus at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government and senior advisor to the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting. In a distinguished 30-year career in journalism, Mr. Kalb served as chief diplomatic correspondent for CBS News and NBC News and moderator of Meet the Press. He went on to serve as the founding director of Harvard's Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy. Among his many honors are two Peabody Awards, the DuPont Prize from Columbia University, the 2006 Fourth Estate Award from the National Press Club and more than a half-dozen Overseas Press Club awards. Mr. Kalb has authored or co-authored 16 books including two best-selling novels. His latest book is "The Year I was Peter the Great: 1956 – Khrushchev, Stalin's Ghost, and a Young American in Russia."
Executive Producer Michael Freedman is a senior vice president and professor of the practice at University of Maryland University College, as well as a professorial lecturer in journalism at the George Washington University, and a member of the National Press Club Board of Governors. He is the former general manager of CBS Radio Network News, and a former managing editor of United Press International. He and his teams have earned more than 85 honors for journalistic excellence including 14 Edward R. Murrow Awards.
Senior Producer Heather Date is a vice president at University of Maryland University College and former CNN producer. She received the Alliance for Women in Media's 2011 Gracie Award as Outstanding Producer for her work on The Kalb Report.
Director Shelly Schwartz has distinguished himself as one of the premier producer/ directors in the nation's capital for more than 30 years. His directing credits include The McLaugh | 1,073 |
Adenosine: Used to treat supraventricular tachycardia. Ad<|fim_middle|> the heart. | enosine is an antiarrhythmic medication that works by slowing the electrical conduction in the heart which sometimes normalizes the heart rhythm. Adenosine can also be given during a stress test. While adenosine does not increase the heart rate, it does dilate the blood vessels leading into the heart, increasing blood flow. This action will simulate exercise for patients who are unable to exercise on a treadmill.
Amiodarone: Generic name for the drug Cordarone. Amiodarone belongs to a class of drugs called antiarrhythmics. It is taken to prevent arrhythmias in patients with recurrent rhythm abnormalities and symptoms despite other treatments. This drug works by slowing nerve impulses in the heart.
Digitalis (Digoxin): Drug which shares the qualities of two different drug classes: cardiac glycosides and antiarrhythmics. Digitalis drugs work by increasing the force of the hearts contractions (cardiac glycoside) and is prescribed to treat symptoms of congestive heart failure. It also decreases the conduction of electrical impulses through the heart, thereby controlling the heart rate during atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter (antiarrhythmic). Names also include Lanoxin and Lanoxicaps.
Dobutamine: A medication in the class of drugs called inotropic agents or catecholamines. Dobutamine is a heart-stimulating drug and is used to treat patients with heart failure. It works by increasing the strength and force of the heartbeat increasing the output of the heart. Dobutamine can also be administered during a stress test to simulate exercise when the patient is unable to walk on a treadmill.
Nitrates and Nitrites: Used to treat angina (chest pain) and symptoms of congestive heart failure. Nitrates belong to a group of medications called vasodilators. These medications dilate blood vessels by relaxing the muscle in the vessel walls. Common nitrates include nitroglycerin, Isordil and Imdur.
Quinidine / Quinidine Sulfate: Quinidine belongs to a class of drugs called antiarrhythmics. It is taken to correct heartbeat problems called arrhythmias.
Thallium: A metal element that has many uses. In the pharmaceutical industry, the radioactive form of thallium (thallium isotope) is used for diagnostic testing. Thallium is visible on nuclear imaging studies which assess the blood supply and pump function of | 498 |
It's in the under-10 territory where much of the action is expected to be focused; and perhaps surprisingly, although it has run far more aggressive price promotions over the past couple of years, Waitrose joined Morrisons with a month-long deal (31 October-27 November) on its own very decently made fizz produced by P&C Heidsieck, which it has cut by 5 to 9.99. Since these offers opened, most of the major retailers have already slipped into the 9.99-a-bottle territory or below, and it is, at the time of writing, still only mid-November.
Perhaps fuelled by the<|fim_middle|>ting their teeth and waiting for the New Year. At least the price increases that have generally been pushed through will ensure the discounts have to be very steep to pull the major brands back under 15 a bottle. Unless, of course, that e-mail from Asda was a contingency plan, not a computer error. | fear that Sainsbury's, third placed in the supermarket league, really is closing the gap in trading profits under Asda's former boss Justin King, Asda seems to have temporarily forgotten its ELP policy when it comes to Champagne. And after a couple of years of quite reasonably deriding Tesco and Sainsbury's so-called half-price Champagne deals - typically involving a pseudo brand no one has ever heard of being traded for about a day in two stores at a full price of 19.98, prior to trumpeting the great reduction to 9.99 (usually still far too much for what's in the bottle) - Asda appears to be taking the same route.
From 14 November it slashed the price of its new Champagne line Hubert Laurent, supplied by the Alliance cooperative, from 19.98 to 9.98. This fizz wasn't on the supermarket's September price list, and I'd hazard a guess it wasn't on the shelves either, and although the mathematicians among you will be able to work out it's not actually the half-price deal advertised, in all other respects it follows the Sainsbury's and Tesco model. Although I haven't yet tasted it, I'd be pleasantly surprised to find a wine worthy of the name Champagne.
The e-mail that showed details of the Hubert Laurent deal also carried the news that Mot's category leading brand Brut Imprial was being further reduced from 16.98 to 12.98 over the same period (14 Nov '05-8 Jan '06), while Veuve Monnier, shown on the September list at 16.98, was being cut from 7.98 to 5.98, also for eight weeks. While it looked for a moment like the price war had really kicked off with a vengeance, these offers seemed a little far-fetched. When I checked, Mot had actually been reduced in price by just 3, to 19.98 - most other supermarkets are up around 23, and Thresher wants 27.99 for a single bottle (of which more later) - probably not the cheapest deal we will see on Brut Imprial this side of New Year's Day.
It will be interesting to see if Tesco and Sainsbury's simply follow Asda's lead with their own BOB labels specifically designed with the half-price promotional deal in mind, respectively Andr Carpentier and Etienne Dumont. No doubt the extra stocks are already sitting in a UK warehouse, and how far the shelf price drops will depend partly on customers' enthusiasm for such cheap Champagne. If all else fails and consumers don't buy enough now, they can always be sold off in a pumped-up Valentine's Day deal.
and 6.5% in value, in the 12 months to 1 October 2005 (AC Nielsen MAT, total GB offs) - on the face of it, still a pretty strong performance. There is, however, evidence that this growth has been driven by price promotion throughout the year and the soft brands like the couple made by Champagne's two biggest cooperative groups: Nicolas Feuillatte and Jacquart.
Over the past few years, the Nicolas Feuillatte, produced by the Chouilly cooperative, has achieved a phenomenal growth rate, and this shows no signs of slowing, with volume up 19% and value ahead an impressive 27% (AC Nielsen MAT to 1 Oct '05). Only Laurent Perrier, Lanson, Veuve Clicquot and Mot are above Feuillatte in terms of off-trade brand value share, according to Nielsen. Now that it is officially distributed by PLB, rather than by Patriarche, Jacquart has also started competing in this price-led arena; and because Tesco in particular has repeatedly slashed its price, it too has seen sales soar, albeit from a much lower base.
Asked to explain the logic of the heavy price promotions on Jacquart over the summer months, Laurent Gillet - president of Union Auboise, one of the three cooperatives making the Jacquart brand, which is marketed under the Alliance umbrella - admitted to being surprised at Tesco's aggressive pricing. While the store lists Jacquart's Brut Tradition at 19.99, prices have been as low as 11.98 a bottle on the company's website.
Gillet says that Jacquart MD Jean Marc Pottiez convinced [the management board of Jacquart] that an aggressive marketing policy was necessary because retailers [like Tesco] were getting rid of some lines, and we didn't want to be a casualty of the cuts'. Gillet further explains that the cooperatives in the Alliance group - COVAMA based at Chteau Thierry, COGEVI based in A and the Union Auboise, which he heads - between them produce several million bottles of BOBs, and they are looking to decrease this (rather than reduce their long-term contracts supplying the ngociants) and increase sales of Jacquart, hopefully at a higher price point.
Jacquart's new aggressive stance brings it much more directly into competition with Nicolas Feuillatte, which of course used to be run, when it was a smaller player than it is today, by the same Jean Marc Pottiez. Part of the deal in getting listings for Jacquart is to supply the likes of Tesco and Asda with the BOB lines on which they can slash prices. Since Jacquart has supplied Asda with the Hubert Laurent fizz to run just such a half-price deal, it will be interesting to see if it can pinch any of Nicolas Feuillatte's business, making most of Asda's own-label champagne.
its website with a six-bottle price of 79.76 - a saving of 34.18, equivalent to a single-bottle price of just 13.30. So, it appears, as you'd expect given Feuillatte now sells more than seven million bottles a year worldwide, Jacquart has some ground to make up.
Veuve Clicquot and Taittinger are the only major brands, other than Feuillatte, that continue to do well in the total UK off-trade: volume and value are up 19% for Clicquot; while at Taittinger, value, up 18%, has grown faster than volume, ahead by 15% - just the sort of figure any prospective buyer of the company would want to see.
There has been one major change in the off-trade picture. At long last - and it appears partly as a result of Thresher's three-for-two deals - the grocers are not having it all their own way with Champagne sales. While the total UK off-trade market is up, as we have seen (4.6% in volume, 6.5% in value), Non-Vintage Champagne, which represents the bulk of the market, is up only 4% by value in the grocers but has jumped 11% over the same period in the multiple specialists. The star of the show here in terms of fizz brands is Veuve Clicquot, which has assumed Mot's mantle as sector leader with 21% growth year on year (MAT to 1 Oct '05). As a result, Clicquot's market share has risen from 13.8% to 15.6%, almost exactly mirroring Mot's decline from 15.5% to 13.8%.
If you were a deeply cynical person, you might think this has more to do with the fact that Nielsen now monitors Majestic's Champagne sales and Mot hasn't been stocked by Majestic for some considerable time (although, since May this year, it has listed magnums of NV Mot, albeit at the rather high price of 53.75). However, when Thresher's buyer James Griswood was asked if any particular big-name brand was doing well at the moment, he immediately mentioned Veuve Clicquot Yellow Label, followed by Taittinger.
Whether you put the specialists' improvement down to Thresher and Oddbins getting their act together or to Majestic's consistently impressive Champagne sales registering in the Nielsen stats, the three-for-two mechanism at Thresher has clearly had a significant effect. Thresher has also increased the number of Champagne brands it stocks: not very long ago, the only Vintage Champagne sold was Mot, now it has eight others in addition.
Thresher introduced three-for-two in December 2004, initially only on Champagne, not all wines, and as a direct result Griswood says they are outperforming the multiple-specialist sector, with value growth above 15%, year on year'. Given the high mark-ups on single bottles - Bollinger Special Cuve, for example, is priced at 37, compared to Tesco's 29.96 - I asked what percentage of Champagne sales are made at the discounted three-bottle price (it comes down to 24.66 for Bollinger).
While the Champagne houses with the largest brands have all settled on the deals they want to run in the off-trade, they know there is little they can do to stop retailers slashing prices as they see fit. It's a case of grit | 1,945 |
Frederique Constant Hybrid Manufacture review
Switzerland's take on the high-end hybrid smartwatch
By Alistair Charlton
The Frederique Constant Hybrid Manufacture is a luxury mechanical Swiss watch with a sprinkling of step and sleep-tracking smarts. It is beautifully designed and has a price to match its premium Swiss engineering, but lacks the technology to be seen as a true rival to hybrids of lesser heritage.
Beautiful Swiss design
Clever blend of mechanical winding with tech
Week-long battery
Sleep tracking not automated
Data syncing not automated
Connected smart tech feels half-baked
Introduction, price and design
Specs, fitness and battery life
The Frederique Constant Hybrid Manufacture is what happens when a traditional Swiss watchmaker sits up, pays attention to technology companies parking tanks on its beautifully manicured Genevan lawn, and does something about it.
It may not be the whole-hog approach taken by Tag Heuer, maker of the Connected range of smartwatches with touchscreens and Intel processors. Instead, the Hybrid Manufacture is the result of Frederique Constant discovering a<|fim_middle|> of tech with their classic recipe.
Frederique Constant Hybrid Manufacture: Price Comparison
Current page: Introduction, price and design
Next Page Specs, fitness and battery life
Alistair Charlton is a freelance technology and automotive journalist based in London. His career began with a stint of work experience at TechRadar back in 2010, before gaining a journalism degree and working in the industry ever since. A lifelong car and tech enthusiast, Alistair writes for a wide range of publications across the consumer technology and automotive sectors. As well as reviewing dash cams for TechRadar, he also has bylines at Wired, T3, Forbes, Stuff, The Independent, SlashGear and Grand Designs Magazine, among others. | way to blend the centuries-old way of using jewels, mainsprings and a balance wheel, with Bluetooth, step-counting, and a rechargeable battery.
There is nothing quite so vulgar as notification alerts and a loudspeaker. Instead, this is a hybrid smartwatch which presents an opportunity for mechanical Swiss watch fans to dip their toes into the smartwatch waters, while sitting firmly on the shores of Lake Geneva.
Frederique Constant Hybrid Manufacture at Amazon for $2,249 (opens in new tab)
Frederique Constant Hybrid Manufacture price and release date
Priced from £2,995 to £3,295 ($3,495 to $3795, AU$5,300)
We feel that price needs explaining right off the bat, because regular TechRadar readers will likely balk at the idea of a smartwatch (actually, a half-smart hybrid watch) costing three grand. This is what happens when the Swiss get involved with making connected watches; they leap from the pages of glossy lifestyle magazines filled with yachts and private jet charter companies, and they end up mixing it with us technology folk.
We think this is a good thing, and are thrilled that the smartwatch industry has caused the Swiss to change their centuries-old ways, even if only slightly. But it means us accepting that they sell a great many mechanical watches with four, five, even six-figure price tags without batting an eyelid. It is tricky, therefore, to compare the Frederique Constant Hybrid Manufacture with the smartwatches which normally grace the pages of TechRadar.
Frederique Constant sells watches for between approximately £1,000 and £3,500, so at a fiver under £3,000, the Hybrid Manufacture fits into the range in the same way a Galaxy S9 does over at Samsung.
Classic Swiss watch design with steel case and alligator strap
Additional smart dial at 12 o'clock can offer three different pieces of information
The Hybrid Manufacture has a similar design to other Frederique Constant watches, with a stainless steel body (rose gold is offered as an option), black alligator strap, and a large but not overbearing 42mm case. Despite its smartness, the Hybrid Manufacture is almost exactly the same size and weight as our regular non-smart watch, a Tissot PRC 200, and thus felt very familiar as soon as we put it on.
That is to say, once we had switched the strap for one which fitted better. This writer's slim wrists couldn't quite be accommodated by the smallest option on the Frederique Constant's strap, but if we had bought this watch ourselves, an extra hole could easily be stamped into the strap. The strap itself is soft, supple and has a secure clasp mechanism with the Frederique Constant logo on the outside.
The case is approximately 11mm thick (the same as the Apple Watch 3), but tapers at the front and back so feels closer to 8mm or so, keeping it in line with other non-smart watches with 42mm-wide cases. This compactness makes the Hybrid Manufacture feel almost dainty compared to the bulky Tag Heuer Connected Modular 41 we reviewed recently.
There are four versions of this watch, but only three are available in the UK at the time of writing. These are the steel with silver dial and black alligator strap as seen in this review, plus a model with a rose gold plated steel case, silver dial and dark brown alligator strap, and a steel model with dark grey dial and matching alligator strap with contrast blue stitching. A steel model with navy dial and blue alligator strap is limited to select European markets.
Mechanical watch fans can admire the Hybrid Manufacture's FC-750 movement through the sapphire crystal back. Designed and built in-house, the movement comprises 33 jewels and has a 42-hour power reserve, meaning it will keep time for almost two full days of not being worn. An anti-magnetic shield in the case prevents the electronics from interfering with the mechanism.
The self-winding mechanism is activated whenever the watch moves, but it also comes with a display case with integrated rotating charger, which spins the watch to keep it running when not worn. The case, which plugs into the mains, also changes the watch's battery by feeding power through a button at the 10 o'clock position - more on this later.
Sapphire is also used on the front of the watch, and the face includes Roman numerals, plus a second dial at six o'clock displaying the date. A third dial at 12 o'clock can be configured to show a variety of things, such as your daily activity, a second time zone and the watch's battery level, or start a stopwatch for a run.
We're fans of the Roman numerals and textured guilloche detailing in the centre of the dial. The second and third dials also look at home here, although the smart dial and its various readouts takes some getting used to.
The face may look cluttered at first, but each element is thoughtfully laid out and serves to make the watch feel more compact than it really is. It's a satisfying thing to look at and doesn't appear overly large, even on smaller wrists.
The dial shows three pieces of information by showing one constantly, then one briefly with one press of the 10 o'clock button, and a second briefly with two quick presses. We set the watch so it always shows our daily activity progress, then one press displays a second time zone and two presses shows the status of the battery.
That battery, by the way, only powers the watch's smart functions and Bluetooth connection. If it runs out (after between six and seven days), the time and date will continue to function as normal, and can be adjusted via the crown in the usual way.
We were less impressed with the 'Hybrid' motiff on the face, as it reminds us of when manufacturers slap 'Turbo' on a product for no reason at all - like on a pair of sunglasses. Granted, this is genuinely a hybrid watch, but the badge ever-so-slightly cheapens the look of the timepiece, at least to our eyes.
To the untrained eye, there is no reason - apart from that Hybrid badge - to assume this is anything other than a beautiful, mechanical Swiss watch. We applaud Frederique Constant for that, and it excites us to think what other Swiss brands (cough, Rolex...) could do by mixing a dash | 1,360 |
Once every half term, we hold a Parent Voice meeting in which parents are able to share their views on various aspects of School life and to hear about the changes we have made since the last Parent Voice meeting.
These meetings are usually held on the third Wednesday of each half term, starting at<|fim_middle|>. | 8:45am in the hall, and all parents of children who attend Shakespeare are invited to join us.
NHS Leeds - Advertising a jobs fair aimed at recruiting local people into NHS roles such as Housekeeping and Administration.
Leeds University Lifelong Learning Centre - Offering courses for parents who wish to further themselves with studying.
You can find the dates for upcoming Parent Voice meetings on the Our Key Dates page. A link to this is provided on the right hand side of this page.
To find out what happened at our most recent Parent Voice session, look out for the reports amongst our Latest News | 121 |
Covering a large swath of the Northern Dalmatian interior between the coastal mountains and the Bosnian border, this lightly populated region has blissful scenery ranging from bucolic farmland to dense forest and craggy uplands. If you're looking for an alternative to beaches and islands, it's a wonderful area to explore. In parts, the karstic nature of the underlying limestone has bequeathed a wonderland of caves, canyons, lakes and waterfalls. The most dramatic of these natural attractions is Plitvice Lakes National<|fim_middle|>. Return to your hotel/guesthouse. | Park, one of Croatia's unmissable experiences.
Ready to go? Get to the heart of Lika with one of Lonely Planet's in-depth, award-winning guidebooks.
In Plitvice National Park, nature has created 16 lakes and connected them by amazing travertine waterfalls. The National Park covers 29685 hectares, where lakes take up to 200 hectares and forest covers the rest of the park. In this area you can encounter different species that have been living here since before the arrival of humans. Starting point is at the north entrance of the park (Entrance 1). Sightseeing is circular and includes the Lower and Upper Lakes area, and a combination of walks and electric-boat rides, while the return to starting point will be mostly by panoramic train. Enjoy the beauty of the largest and most attractive waterfalls ("Great Waterfall", "Veliki Prštavac" and "Mali Prštavac"), and countless smaller waterfalls, as well as the lakes. The Plitvice lakes National Park belongs to Dinaric karst area and due to its specific geology, geomorphology and hydrology it truly is one of the most impressive karst entities in the world. Apart from dolomitic rock, mesosoic limestones with dolomite inserts prevail. The ratio between less porous or water-retaining dolomites and porous Jurassic limestone sediments in the karst has influenced the landscape of the overall area today. Specific hydrology properties of rock have enabled water retention on Triassic dolomite rocks, as well as canyon formation by water cutting through Cretaceous limestone deposits. Tufa barriers are a phenomenon enabling water to remain inside the lakes.
Choose either Split or Trogir as your starting point on this full-day trip to the Plitvice lakes and the ancient coastal city of Zadar. Take in breathtaking views of Trogir, Split, and the surrounding area along the way, including panoramas of the Adriatic and the green mountains of Lika. When you arrive at Plitvice National Park, you'll take a guided walk along wooden pathways. See the 16 beautiful lakes and over 90 waterfalls. The site is on UNESCO's Natural and Cultural Heritage list. On your walk you'll see how the Korana River creates a multitude of waterfalls, passing through and over caves. At Kozjak lake you'll enjoy a boat ride and then have some free time to explore the park on your own. Head toward Prošćansko lake, where an electric train will take you back to the beginning of your adventure. On the return trip you'll stop in the coastal city of Zadar, the historical center of Dalmatia. This ancient city is surrounded by historical ramparts, and is a treasury of the archaeological and monumental riches of ancient and medieval times. You'll have enough time here to enjoy dinner or a drink in the old city center.
• This tour envolves the "Lower Lakes" with a touch of the "Upper Lakes" we refer to as the "Ring". • An ideal oportunity to learn the difference and dynamics of the park. • *Recommended by guides! • Enjoy a complimentary hotel pick up from your accommodation in Plitvice Lakes to the entrance 1 of the Plitvice Lakes National Park.Difficulty: Easy/ModerateDuration: 4-5hLenght: 5000-6000mBoatride: 15 minPanoramic bus drive: OptionalThe tour will start exploring the lower lakes and magnificent Big Waterfall, the highest at the Park.Follow the path that leads across the lakes and waterfalls until you reach a spot to take a short rest. There are few snack bars where you can buy drinks and food. To reach the upper lakes, you then take a boat ride across Lake Kozjak. At the upper part you will see the waterfall rhapsody | 809 |
Borealis Daplen<|fim_middle|> applications. | PP compound grades composed of PCR and virgin content were used in applications and parts for a specially-built hybrid SUV by Volvo.
Borealis Daplen polypropylene (PP) compound grades composed of post-consumer recycled (PCR) and virgin content were used in applications and parts for a specially-built hybrid SUV recently unveiled by leading car maker Volvo at the "Ocean Summit" event in Gothenburg, Sweden.
The car highlights their ambition to ensure that at least 25% of the plastics in newly launched Volvo Cars will be made from sustainable material.
As a key supplier to Volvo Cars, Borealis was among those providing PCR-based solutions for a specially-built Volvo XC60 T8 plug-in hybrid SUV. Borealis supplied nearly 10% of the 60 kg of PCR-material used for this demonstrator model.
While the model may look like the one currently on the market, it is in fact different: over 170 components usually made of conventional plastics have now been replaced with light- weight, recycled material equivalents.
"We are eager to find new opportunities to put our expertise to use and collaborate with OEMs like Volvo Cars. We deliver high-end grades that make vehicles as safe and high-performance as ever, yet these grades are more environmentally sustainable because they contain PCR," explained Maria Ciliberti, Borealis Vice President Marketing and New Business Development, Polyolefins.
Developed in Europe, the PCR Daplen grade portfolio was launched to fulfil industry demand for safe, readily available, and high-quality reclaimed materials with a lower environmental impact. Crucially, the performance and cost efficiency of PCR grades can be equal to that of virgin materials and PCR Daplen grades have the potential for use in a variety of interior, exterior, and under-the-bonnet (UTB) | 368 |
English Premier LeagueCrystal PalaceTottenhamLeaguesFEATURED COLUMN
Crystal Palace To Offer Talismanic Forward A Mega Deal: Good Way To Fend Off Interest From Spurs?
By Abhishek Majumdar
Aston VillaAbhinab Ghosh - January 31, 2023
Abhishek Majumdar
Editor in Chief of The 4th Official. A man in his thirties who worries about the nuances of the financial aspects of football and how it will impact the game in the long term.
Seldom comes a player in the spotlight, whose ability to lead the team towards success and perform at his best day in day out mesmerizes not only the club faithful but also the fans and officials of other clubs. One such player is Wilfried Zaha of Crystal Palace, who has been the inspiration to their success in the last term. The Ivory Coast international not only helped Palace survive relegation but also inspired them to finish the season at the 11th place in the Premier League table.
The Eagles started the last season in the most disastrous fashion possible, suffering seven losses in their first seven matches. They were not able to score even a single goal in that period and were looking certain to be doomed to relegation. However, the new manager Roy Hodgson showed his charisma to turn back the season on its head and helped his side revive big time, his prime weapon being the 25-year-old spearhead from Africa.
Despite an injury that saw him miss a few matches in the<|fim_middle|> Coast international and is pondering over making a move for him this summer.
Hodgson, on the other hand, will not be willing to let go of his prized asset and is looking to tie him down to a giant contract. It says that the player will earn £120,000 a week under the improved terms. He signed a new deal last summer only but the Eagles are well aware of the high demand of the player in the market are eager to make sure that none of the suitors can be able to lure him out of Selhurst Park.
tottenham hotpsur
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Alphonso Davies is a professional footballer who operates as a left-back for the Canada national team and Bayern Munich....
Leeds United Ace Makes His Move To The Serie A: Good Move For Everyone Involved?
Chelsea Ankit Seth - January 31, 2023 | early stage of the last season, the former Manchester United winger came back strongly and made an immediate impact, scoring 9 goals in 29 appearances in the Premier League and assisting his teammates on 5 more occasions.
His pace and agility, along with his ability to score goals from a variety of ranges made him the talisman for the Eagles as they saw off the challenges from a number of big clubs including the likes of Chelsea. He earned rave reviews from a number of experts from all over England and attracted the attention of quite a few clubs in the process, including Tottenham Hotspur.
The North London club have started to feature in the top four on a regular basis in the last few seasons and will be doing the same in the next term as well. Mauricio Pochettino has developed a team of youngsters into world beaters and is looking to add more strength to his side in the near future. He is one of the biggest admirers of the 25-year-old Ivory | 200 |
INSCT Academic Programs
The next generation of national security professionals must engage some of the most important and challenging questions of our time … Link
SU Law Admissions Maxwell School Admissions
Must Americans compromise civil liberties to enable government surveillance of suspected terrorists? How does the US respond to cyberattacks? How can the laws of war be applied to non-state actors? How does the rule of law guide strategies for responding to domestic threats?
The Institute for Security Policy and Law's interdisciplinary law and graduate academic programs—and their calibrated mix of academic research and real-world practice—are designed to give law and policy students the best possible theoretical and practical training as they prepare themselves for careers in national and international security, counterterrorism, international law, postconflict reconstruction, and cybersecurity.
In addition to its three certificates of advanced study—in National Security and Counterterrorism Law, Security Studies, and Postconflict Reconstruction—SPL directs a study abroad program in Israel; supports student-run organizations; and sponsors advanced graduate research.
With tools shaped and honed at SPL, alumni have secured positions in the US government (CIA, NSA, FBI, ODNI); international organizations (ICC, World Bank); US military (JAG Corps); and think tanks and consultancies (Booz Allen, Deloitte).
WHAT DO SPL ACADEMIC PROGRAMS OFFER?
Matriculated law and graduate students can choose from SPL's three certificates of advanced study in National Security and Counterterrorism, Security Studies, and Postconflict Reconstruction.
Additionally, the Program on Security in the Middle East offers cross-cultural engagement with scholars, experts, and practitioners, through Graduate Study Abroad fellowships and the Carol Becker Speaker Series.
A calibrated mix of workshops, seminars, symposia, simulations, real-world research projects, field trips/staff rides, panel discussions, and speaker series broaden and deepen students' academic experience.
Other student opportunities include capstone projects, internships, graduate assistantships, study abroad fellowships, individual research fellowships, and student-run organizations.
Our program is lead by distinguished subject matter experts: the Hon. James E. Baker, one of the most highly regarded national security lawyers and policy advisors in the nation, and Vice Admiral Robert B. Murrett (Ret.), former Director of the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency
Other faculty members are drawn from a wide range of disciplines, including political science, public and international affairs, international law, humanitarian law, peace studies, sociology, anthropology, history, communications, economics, computer engineering, and more.
Graduates benefit from SPL's academic/public sector partnerships with other universities (such as the Institute for Counter-Terrorism and Georgetown Law), government and UN agencies, municipalities, NGOs, and think tanks.
Alumni have found national security and<|fim_middle|>PL's Program on Security in the Middle East is a multi-part, international, interdisciplinary initiative that takes a cross-cultural approach toward understanding the historical, religious, social, and political complexities that impact the region. It includes the Becker Speaker Series and a study abroad option for law and graduate students.
STUDENT TESTIMONIALS Link
"SPL is the reason I came to Syracuse. I knew I wanted to go somewhere that would provide opportunities other law schools would not, and SPL far exceeded those expectations. Taking Institute classes and working with its faculty provided a priceless experience, with truly amazing job opportunities and formative professional relationships I will maintain long after the end of my academic career."—Shelby Mann Law '19
"SPL fostered my interest in national security law and broadened my understanding of this interdisciplinary field. The institute also ignited my interest in international law and gave me the unique opportunity to explore how the international community intersects with the domestic security community. Through SPL I participated in projects that have reached actual clients and that introduced me to giants in the field. I cannot imagine a better network and foundation of knowledge than the one SPL has provided."—Molly White, LAW '16
"SPL's Certificate of Advanced Study in Postconflict Reconstruction program gave me a profound understanding of what conflict is, how it manifests itself, and its impact on individual people, communities, and countries. This understanding has helped me to improve my programs everywhere I have worked, from Somalia and DRC to Haiti and China. SPL's PCR program taught me the skills, tools, and abilities I can use to empower others to reconstruct for themselves."—Joshua Daley, MPA/MAIR '11
Certificate of Advanced Study in National Security & Counterterrorism Law
Certificate of Advanced Study in Security Studies
Certificate of Advanced Study in Postconflict Reconstruction | PCR sector work in a diverse range of national and international organizations.
Alumni form an extended, active, loyal, and influential network, and stay in touch via social media channels and networking events.
SPL is the home of the Journal of National Security Law & Policy, the world's only peer-reviewed journal devoted to national security law and policy topics.
Other Academic Opportunities Link
Syracuse University Intelligence Community Center of Academic Excellence Link
Syracuse University has been designated as a United States Intelligence Community Center of Academic Excellence (ICCAE)—a highly competitive, congressionally mandated program funded by the U.S. Department of Defense's Defense Intelligence Agency, which partners with universities to increase the diversity of the U.S. intelligence workforce. The ICCAE offers undergraduate and graduate students unique coursework as well as programmatic and training opportunities to prepare for professional positions in any of the 17 agencies of the U.S. Intelligence Community.
Program on Security in the Middle East Link
S | 199 |
Bobcats lose heartbreaker to Concord
Photo courtesy of West Virginia Wesleyan College West Virginia Wesleyan head football coach Del Smith instructs his players.
BUCKHANN<|fim_middle|> in the second half, Copeland found the end zone for a second time as he snared a screen pass from junior quarterback Kyle Akin. Copeland slipped away from the Wesleyan defense and raced 23 yards to get CU within 21-14.
Less than two minutes later, Walls hit from 29 yards on a field goal after a failed fake punt by the Bobcats. With 4:08 left in the third quarter, Concord trailed 21-17.
The momentum for the Mountain Lions continued as senior defensive back Chaudlier Shepherd intercepted a pass just as Wesleyan was starting to drive in CU territory. Two plays after the pick, Copeland was on the receiving end of another Akin screen–this time Copeland gave the Maroon and Gray their first lead of the day, 24-21, on a 65-yard score.
However, Wesleyan quickly grabbed the lead back, 28-24, with 11:17 remaining, as Casey capped a 10-play, 82-yard scoring drive with a 2-yard run to paydirt.
Then the Bobcats added to their lead with a field goal with 6:10 left to go. After each team traded punts, the Mountain Lions, still trailing by seven, took over at their own 27-yard line with 3:33 left.
Akin proceeded to drive the Mountain Lions 73 yards in 2:47 that was capped on a touchdown plunge by freshman running back Josh Maxwell with 46 seconds remaining.
On the proceeding Wesleyan drive, junior linebacker Andrew Jakubowsky intercepted a Luke Casey pass on third down at the 40-yard line to set up Concord for a potential game-winning score with under 20 seconds left.
Akin scrambled out-of-bounds for 10 yards before he completed a seven-yard pass to junior wide receiver Brandon Plyler to set up Walls and the kicking unit.
With two seconds remaining, Walls connected on his second field goal to lift the Mountain Lions to a season-opening win, 34-31. | ON — Freshman kicker Luke Walls' 40-yard field goal on the final play of the game propelled Concord to a 34-31 come-from-behind win over West Virginia Wesleyan Saturday afternoon in Mountain East Conference play at Cebe Ross Field.
Early in the second quarter, CU found itself in a 21-0 hole as Wesleyan scored on its first drive of the game and added two scores–one in the first quarter and another early in the second.
Dante Starcher scored first for the Bobcasts on an 11-yard run to put Wesleyan up 7-0 in the first quarter.
In the second stanza, Jujuan Linzy caught a 43-yard touchdown pass fom Luke Casey to stretch the Bobcats' lead to 14-0.
Kenny Lewis Jr. then caught a 13-yard TD pass from Casey to give Wesleyan a 21-0 advantage with 6:02 left in the first half.
Facing a three-touchdown deficit, the Mountain Lions began their comeback. With just over 5:30 left in the first half, freshman running back Kris Copeland broke a 73-yard touchdown run that took him from the left sideline before he reversed field and scampered in front of the CU bench, down the sideline and into the end zone.
A late CU drive stalled out before half as Concord faced a 21-7 deficit at halftime.
Five minutes | 300 |
A Organização das Nações Unidas para a Educação, a Ciência e a Cultura (UNESCO) propôs um plano de proteção aos bens culturais do mundo, através do Comité sobre a Proteção do Património Mundial Cultural e Natural, aprovado em 1972. Esta é uma lista do Patrimônio Mundial existente na Suíça, especificamente classificada pela UNESCO e elaborada de acordo com dez principais critérios cujos pontos são julgados por especialistas na área. A Suíça, país de relevante legado histórico e cultural enquanto cruzamento das porções ocidental e oriental da Europa, ratificou a convenção em 17 de setembro de 1975, tornando seus locais históricos elegíveis para inclusão na lista.
Os sítios Convento Beneditino de São João, Abadia de São Galo e Cidade Antiga de Berna foram os primeiros locais da Suíça incluídos na lista do Patrimônio Mundial da UNESCO por ocasião da 7.ª Sessão do Comitê do Património Mundial, realizada em Florença (Itália) em 1983. Desde então, a Suíça conta com 13 este sítios classificados como Patrimônio da Humanidade, sendo 9 deles de classificação Cultural e os 4 restantes de classificação Natural.
Bens culturais e naturais
A Suíça conta atualmente com os seguintes lugares declarados como Patrimônio da Humanidade pela UNESCO:
Lista Indicativa
Em adição aos sítios inscritos na Lista do Patrimônio Mundial, os Estados-membros podem manter uma lista de sítios que pretendam nomear para a Lista de Patrimônio Mundial, sendo som<|fim_middle|> desta lista. Desde 2021, a Suíça apresenta 2 locais em sua Lista Indicativa.
Ligações externas
Cultura da Suíça
Suíça | ente aceitas as candidaturas de locais que já constarem | 13 |
Cole Swindell Announces 'Reason to Drink' Tour
Posted by WHISNews21 ⋅ November 30, 2017 ⋅ Leave a comment
Cole Swindell, the Platinum-selling 10-time No. 1 hit singer/songwriter, will wrap up his sold out fourth annual Down Home Tour at the end of January and will launch right in to his first career headlining tour, the Reason To Drink Tour, on February 15th in Allentown, PA. Joining Swindell for each of the dates on his first headlining tour are two of country music's biggest rising stars Chris Janson and Lauren Alaina.
Since he launched his career in 2014, the Warner Bros./Warner Music Nashville recording artist has been on some of the biggest tours with some of the biggest superstars in country music including Luke Bryan, Kenny Chesney, Jason Aldean, Florida Georgia Line and Dierks Bentley. The Georgia native is excited to finally take this step in to his own headlining tour.
"I am excited to be able to take everything I have learned while on the road the last four years watching all that Luke, Jason, Kenny, Dierks, Tyler and Brian did as headliners." said Cole Swindell. "Everything from how they treat their fans, their high-energy performances, to how they treated EVERYONE on the tour. They were great examples of how much work it takes for a successful tour. I can honestly say I've learned from the very best in the business. I'm ready to get out there with two of my friends, Chris Janson and Lauren Alaina. Start to finish, it's going to be an amazing show and we're ready to share it with you all."
Pre-sale tickets for the Reason To Drink Tour will go on sale tomorrow November 28th and will go on sale to the public in most markets December 1st. Check ColeSwindell.com for on sale dates in each market. To purchase tickets go to www.ColeSwindell.com. Live Nation is the official tour promoter.
Today's Inspiration Station With Rhonnie Scheuerman
Author: Penney Schwab
On Sunday my Pastor ScharleenCross related a scary experience from the night before. Just after dark, she decided to water the flowers in her front yard. Because she would pony be out a few moments, she left her little dog inside even though he barked furiously She was in protest She was about to turn on the water when she sensed something creep up behind her. She turned around, her heart racing…
It was a skunk, fully grown, fully loaded, his tail up and ready to spray. Pastor Careen's didn't move a muscle.. She looked at the skunk. It looked at her. After what seemed like an eternity, the skunk lowered it's tail and ambled away.
It was a thank you, Jesus moment she told us. " All I could say was, "Thank You Jesus! Thank You that my dog was inside. Thank You for keeping me from screaming or fainting! Most of all , thank You that the skunk left."
I thought about Pastor Scharleen's experience several times that day. I've been trying to develop a grateful heart–an attitude of gratitude. I always
Thanked God for big blessings, like a b<|fim_middle|> Rodney Clawson, Josh Osborne, and Luke Dick. The catchy tune is the third single from the Niemann's fourth album THIS RIDE (his first for Curb Records), and has already been called a "strutting indie-pop jam" by Rolling Stone Country and a "simply feel-good tune" by Billboard.
Author: Erin Keeley Marshall
Have you ever faced something new in your life and been confused about what Jesus was doing, How much He was really involved in your circumstances? These days I'm confused about some new things Jesus is doing with my family. My husband started a new business and we've relocated to a new neighborhood, and frankly, life feels foreign , as if I landed in the middle of someone else's life and am supposed to take it from here. It's unfamiliar territory , and at any given moment I feel more unsettled than peaceful.
But I've enough history with Jesus that even when my feelings speak otherwise, I know who holds today and the future. He's the same One Who has held me to this point. When I quiet myself, I can recognize Him. I have to look for Him, just as He invited His shell- shocked followers to do when they struggled with fears and shaken peace at the new way He was showing up in their day-to-day lives. They'd never seen Him appear suddenly like that. They were uncertain and scared about how to respond or even process what had just happened.
Jesus is Lord of the new, and I need to be ready for Him to do something new in my life. As they were talking about these things, Jesus himself stood among them, and said to them, Peace to you! But they were startled and frightened and though they saw a spirit. And he said to them. "Why are you troubled, and why do doubts arise in your hearts?
See my hands and my feet that it is I myself…"Luke 24:36-39 | ountiful corn harvest and my friend Susan's return to good health following chemotherapy. But I doubled I would have given thanks for an encounter with a skunk.
Was I missing opportunities to thank God because I didn't recognize them? Did blessings sometimes come disguised as troubles? Or as thing I simply took for granted? What would happen if I actually tried giving thanks in all things?
Lord, give me eyes that see, a mind that understands, and a heart of praise for the
"Thank You Jesus moments that happen every day. Penney
Emmylou Shares Nashville Spirit in Television Special
Emmylou Harris shares Nashville spirit in upcoming television special
Emmylou Harris, Wynonna, Lorrie Morgan, Pam Tillis and more will perform in "A Nashville Christmas," an hour-long television special on getTV. The show will air on Thursday, December 7 at 8pm ET/7pm CT as part of getTV's "Most Wonderful Month of the Year" celebration.
Emmylou Harris is a prominent member of the Nashville community, lending her talents to many fundraisers and leads a local dog rescue organization, Bonaparte's Retreat. She hopes that the spirit of her Nashville community shines through in this television special.
"There's such a sense of community of all the artists in this city. I found it from the very beginning when I started hanging around with musicians, before I even became a professional musician. There's a real sense of comradery and generosity. It's not a competition; it's more of a community. Even as big as it's gotten, there's that Nashville that feels like a small town and I think that's the artistic community. I think it comes through on this show."
One of Emmylou's most memorable recordings is the Christmas album "Light of the Stable," which was released in 1979. One of the songs on that album was "Beautiful Star of Bethlehem," which Wynonna wanted to perform with Emmylou as part of this show. Even though the two singers have very different vocal styles, Emmylou knew it would be a success.
"I have this stubborn belief that any two voices can blend, if you just believe", she laughed. "I love Wynonna, so I was happy to just be up there as part of the band and add some vocal duet lines with her because she does an amazing version of it."
Emmylou also performed the Dolly Parton classic "Coat of Many Colors" during the show, bringing new meaning to the song.
"I never thought of it as a Christmas song, but it's about the spirit of Christmas – about what's important, about priorities, about family."
Other memorable performances during the show are Lorrie Morgan's rendition of "The Christmas Song," Wynonna's version of "O Holy Night," and Pam Tillis singing "Santa Claus Baby."
– TasteOfCountry
Focus On Honoring Christ, Not Personal Ambition !
Author: Alden Marshall-Writer for Newspaper "Mountain Press"
How much of our ambition is for the glory of Jesus Christ, and how much is for our own glory !
And yes preachers and singers need to ask ourselves prayerfully that question at least as much as others should
Are we content to fade into obscurity if that best honor Jesus Christ. Here is the observation of John the Baptist on that issue, "He must increase, I must decrease." These were unselfish spoken sincerely. Yet when John was thrown into prison (and later murdered) , he was so discouraged that he sent his disciples to ask Jesus if he really was the Messiah or should they look for another!
Did Jesus use this opportunity to criticize John? No. He reminded John of the miracles he had done, and said the person who is not offended in him is blessed. Do we sincerely want to be blessed by God? Then we must seek glory for our selves. Does that mean we should not look for a spouse, a job, health, or better ways to serve God?
This is where the holy spirit should be invited into the situation, Because the Bible is not specific about any of these matters for me or you.
How much we should increase and how much we should push for our gifts and abilities to be valued should be on ongoing matter of prayer. Frankly , I try to "pray through" about such matters of great importance. This means to pray until we have the peace (or lack of peace). of God regarding a particular person or circumstance , and how and where we should proceed.
David in the Old Testament and Paul in the New Testament got that kind of guidance time after time. So have I and many Christians regarding a wife or about taking a particular pastorate or not, etc.
How good it is to get other sincere and Godly people to pray with us about matters that are very important to us, when possible. Then God will either give us the grace/favor from Him to endure the situation, or he will lead us into a more pleasant one. In my own life, as with John the Baptist and probably all followers of Jesus , I am sure that very difficult circumstantiates have caused me to draw closer to him and more dependent on him.
The Russian writer Solvents said he blessed his prison walls, for there he became a Christian. As we draw neat to Jesus for the first time or more deeply , our ambition will be that, our ambition will be that he may increase, whether we increase or not in the sight of others!
Dr. Alden Marshall is a Presbyterian minister who live in Gatlinburg, TN.
Marty Stuart 25th Anniversary as Opry Member
Marty Stuart to Celebrate 25th Anniversary as a Member of the Grand Ole Opry
Grammy® Award-winning multi-talented Marty Stuart will celebrate his 25th Anniversary as a Grand Ole Opry member with appearances on two Opry shows Friday, December 1 at the Ryman Auditorium. Stuart was inducted in the Opry family on November 28, 1992, some 20 years after he first played the Opry at 13 years old as a band member for legendary Country Music Hall of Famer and Opry member Lester Flatt.
Stuart is widely regarded as one of country music's biggest champions worldwide. The Mississippi native has said, "The Opry is a way of life. It's an institution that gets passed on every weekend. If you're going to be a country performer, the Opry is the place to be."
The five-time Grammy winner continues to record and release keenly relevant music, records that honor country's rich legacy while advancing it into the future.
Earlier this year he released his 18th studio album, Way Out West. It was named one of the "Best Americana Albums of 2017" and NPR Music proclaims "is Marty Stuart's album-length paean to the myth and magic of the American West."
Among those scheduled to be on hand to celebrate with Stuart are his wife, Opry member Connie Smith, Old Crow Medicine Show (who Stuart invited to become Opry members in 2013), Charlie Worsham, and Stuart's band, The Fabulous Superlatives. Among others coming soon to the Opry are Dailey & Vincent, Radney Foster, Gaither Vocal Band, Drew and Ellie Holcomb, Alison Krauss, LoCash, Martina McBride, Carly Pearce, and Chris Young.
Did You Miss CMA Country Christmas 2017
Did You Miss CMA Country Christmas
Country Music's biggest stars came together to celebrate the holidays during the eighth annual "CMA Country Christmas," airing Monday, Nov. 27th (8-10 PM/ET) on ABC. Hosted by iconic entertainer Reba McEntire, the two-hour special features spectacular performances from Nashville's Grand Ole Opry House by Kelsea Ballerini, Luke Bryan, CB30, Dan + Shay, Brett Eldredge, Alan Jackson, Lady Antebellum, Little Big Town, Dustin Lynch, Reba, CeCe Winans, Trisha Yearwood and Chris Young.
Little Big Town Talks Family & Career on Pickler & Ben
Little Big Town Talks Family and Career on "Pickler and Ben"
The band talked about navigating a 20 year career with family
Little Big Town paid a visit to friend Kellie Pickler on her new daytime show, "Pickler and Ben" last week. The band talked about navigating a 20 year career with family and relationships. Little Big Town is an American country music group. Founded in 1998, the group has comprised the same four members since its founding: Karen Fairchild, Kimberly Schlapman, Jimi Westbrook, and Phillip Sweet.
What Are Your Real Motives?
"And you, my son Solomon, acknowledge the God of your father, and serve him with wholehearted devotion and with a willing mind, for the LORD searches every heart and understands every motive behind the thoughts. If you seek him, he will be found by you; but if you forsake him, he will reject you forever. 1 Chronicles 28:9
When Ananias and Sapphira saw others selling their land and giving the proceeds to the church so the poor could be cared for, they thought it was a great idea – in theory. However, when they sold some land they withheld part of the money and then lied about it. They wanted increased visibility and spiritual status without paying retail for it. They wanted to 'look the part' without having to pay the price. But Peter exposed their sin, saying, 'You didn't lie to people. You lied to God!'(Acts 5:4). Not only were their motives exposed, they both dropped dead. And as a result, 'Great fear gripped the entire church and everyone else who heard what had happened' (v. 11). One pastor says: 'Numerous Sundays I've preached a message that deeply moved the members of my congregation. But ironically I'd "prepared" by arguing with my wife on the way to church, or making life miserable for my children. Years of practice came to my rescue and I easily morphed into "the pastor", becoming instantly compassionate, holy, and spiritual. I was faking … [because] feeling needed, respected, and wanted can become as great a motivation as love for Christ.' When it comes to examining your motives, here are two Scriptures you need to read and consider carefully and prayerfully: 1) 'The LORD searches every heart and understands every motive behind the thoughts. If you seek him, he will be found by you.' 2) 'I the LORD search the heart and examine the mind, to reward a man according to his conduct, according to what his deeds deserve' (Jeremiah 17:10).
Prayer Heavenly Father
forgive me for the times when my motivations are not honoring to You,
and help me be sincere in what I do. In Jesus' Name, Amen
Jerrod Niemann Unwraps "Winter Wonderland" Video
Posted by WHISNews21 ⋅ November 26, 2017 ⋅ 2 Comments
Jerrod Niemann Unwraps "Winter Wonderland" Music Video
Hit making Curb Records' country star Jerrod Niemann released his festive music video for "Winter Wonderland," it premiered exclusively on Sounds Like Nashville earlier this week (11/20). The title track of a star-studded Curb Records' holiday collection (released October 13), Niemann's version of "Winter Wonderland" is blanketed in joyful steel guitar and the singer's warm baritone vocal.
Its video was directed by Ryan Hamblin and filmed at Curb Studios in Nashville. Meanwhile, Niemann helped Christmas come early to Country Music Association staff and students last Thursday (11/16), dropping by the CMA's Music Row campus for a special – and highly coveted – performance.
Part of the FOREVER COUNTRY LIVE @ CMA series, Niemann was introduced by CMA Senior Director of Awards & Industry Relations, Brandi Simms, before delivering a grooving acoustic rendition of his forthcoming single, "I Got This."
The singer also performed his romantic "God Made a Woman" and PLATINUM-certified #1 hits "Lover, Lover" and "Drink to That All Night," then stayed around to share insights with members of the CMA EDU program, which gives college students a behind-the-scenes look at the music and entertainment industry.
"I Got This" will officially hit Country radio airwaves on December 11, and was written by | 2,618 |
The OC Creator Josh Schwartz Buys San Fernando Valley Home For $8.1 Million
August <|fim_middle|> safety. "
The sale follows reports that Schwartz sold his "long-standing mansion" in Los Feliz to director Ava DuVernay for nearly $ 10 million. For his new spread he paid $ 8.1 million, even though this property is much larger.
You can take a look at Josh Schwartz's new home in San Fernando Valley in the Aaron Kirkman video below:
As for Schwartz, he'll have plenty to keep him busy as he enjoys his new home. He is currently developing a series of sequels to his show Gossip Girl, as well as continuing to work on its Nancy drew series on The CW.
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Josh Schwartz, creator of television shows like CO and Gossip Girl, has purchased new digs in the San Fernando Valley, according to Dirt.com. The home is a spacious 9,011 square foot ranch-style home with six bedrooms and seven bathrooms, and sits on an even more spacious 2.3-acre lot. The New Schwartz House was built all the way back in 1952, but has been recently renovated to its present, modern glory.
Here's how some of that glory was described in the property listing:
"Situated on a mound in the desirable Longridge Estates neighborhood, the Alomar Estate is located on one of the largest lots in Sherman Oaks. The 2.3 acre resort with manicured gardens, rolling lawns, spectacular views and attention to privacy offers unparalleled grounds. like the experience… Outside, the vast grounds are home to a swimming pool with cabana, a natural path throughout the area and a white sand beach – perfect for a game of volleyball or for sitting around the fireplace. Overlooking the peaceful San Fernando Valley, this magnificent Le Compound offers the utmost in elegance, style and | 240 |
Description:<|fim_middle|>68. | A 5.6 m long, 14-bay, three-dimensional truss structure has been tested at the Smart Structures Technology Laboratory(SSTL) of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC). This specimen was designed to provide a testbed for testing and validation of existing damage detection methods. The truss members are steel tubes with an inner diameter of 1.09 cm and an outer diameter of 1.71cm. The joints of the elements are specially designed so that the truss member can be easily removed or replaced to simulate damage without dissembling the entire structure. The truss is excited vertically by a Ling Dynamic Systems permanent magnetic V408 shaker that can generate a maximum force of 20 lbs with a dynamic performance ranging from 5 Hz to 9000 Hz. PCB high sensitivity piezotronics accelerometers (model 353B33) are used to measure the response of the structure.
Yong Gao; Billie Spencer; Zhuoxiong Sun (2017), "Dynamic Measurements from a Laboratory Truss in Healthy and Damaged Conditions (NEES-2011-1031)," https://datacenterhub.org/resources/142 | 260 |
There are currently no retro tv & movies available.
Even with the newest "must see" television and blockbuster movies, there is nothing more satisfying than kicking back to enjoy retro TV and movies. Like comfort food but with no added calories, this nostalgic form of<|fim_middle|> South will rise again. | entertainment makes everyone happy from first-time viewers to those fans that are more seasoned. With a wide variety of genres including comedy, drama, variety show, games shows and more, there is sure to be a retro TV or movie costume to keep you from flipping your channels.
The 1970s era is home to many favorite television series including "I Dream of Jeannie", "Bewitched" and "The Partridge Family". Even earlier were the black-and-white television shows that America loved such as "Leave it to Beaver", "The Addams Family" and "I Love Lucy". In terms of Retro movies, there are many to choose from including all of the Hitchcock directed movies such as "Birds" and "Psycho". Probably one of the most famous movies of all time, that also not-so-coincidentally has fabulous costumes, is "Gone with the Wind". Dress up as Rhett Bulter or Scarlet O'Hara and show that the | 198 |
Scott Thorrington
Charter Boat Captain – Haven Sport Fishing
Based in Booker Bay just north of Sydney, Captain Scott Thorrington runs Haven Sportfishing Charters in the productive waters along Australia's New South Wales Central Coast. The busy skipper applies nearly 40 years of experience in targeting marlin, kingfish, snapper, bream and other species for the benefit of his happy clientele.
FOLLOW SCOTT THORRINGTON
Invaluable Tools
Captain Scotty's primary boat is Freedom, a stable and maneuverable 34' Blackwatch Flybridge, purpose built for deep-sea fishing and fully outfitted with Raymarine electronics. Captain Scotty explains how using the latest technology from Raymarine makes his boat a tournament-winning package and his overall day-to-day life easier.
Making it easy to catch fish
Captain Scotty, as he's widely known, began fishing at an early age. "I lived on the water at Empire Bay with my grandfather, and he was the one who planted the seed," says Thorrington, who first picked up a rod at age six. "I saw my first billfish in 1981, and I've been heavily into marlin fishing since about 1983."
Thorrington's primary boat is Freedom, a stable and maneuverable 34' Blackwatch Flybridge, purpose built for deep-sea fishing and fully outfitted with Raymarine electronics. "We mainly marlin fish during the summer months, and the winter months we spend deep-dropping for kingies, mulloway, trags… good-quality bottom fish," he says. "And we've also got a 6-meter boat we use in the estuary… Hawkesbury River and Brisbane Water. All told, we spend about 250 days each year on the water."
Whether fishing offshore or in the estuaries, Captain Scotty and his crew rely on their Raymarine electronics to find and catch more fish. "They've just made our lives so much easier – the general day-to-day charter work of finding and catching fish for our clients, plus the added bonus of making our boat a tournament-winning package. Certainly, I couldn't recommend Raymarine products highly enough," he says.
Freedom is equipped with four Raymarine Axiom® MFDs. "We have two 12-inch screens, a 9-inch and a 7-inch," Thorrington says. "The 12" Axioms are paired with the Raymarine CP570 Professional CHIRP Sonar Module and an R509 3kW transducer that allows us to find the bottom in 3,000 meters." Freedom has additional RV transducers mounted in the bow which give the crew access to RealVisionTM 3D and SideVisionTM sonar. "These tools are invaluable when we're bait fishing in the mornings, and when marlin fishing, SideVision gives us the ability to look 200 meters off each side of the boat. We don't worry about driving past fish anymore. Quite often we'll mark a marlin 100-150 meters out to the side, do a turn on him and catch him."
Thorrington's small boat runs three screens. "We have a 12" Axiom on the console, plus a 9" Axiom Pro on the bow, which gives anglers fishing off the bow the ability to see under their feet," he says. "We're also running a 9" ElementTM HV at the helm," Captain Scotty adds "Its 1.2mHz HyperVisionTM sonar is good to about 30 meters and gives us absolute, crystal-clear definition when we're fishing around sunken boats, jetties, breakwalls… that sort of thing. We can mark fish right up against those breakwalls and throw a lure right in there."
While Thorrington thoroughly enjoys the competition tournaments provide, he says seeing old friends is just as much a draw. "I guess we keep fishing tournaments because of the camaraderie. A lot of these people that you see, you only see them once a year and it's at a tournament. It's good to catch up with old friends, but it's also good to win," Thorrington says with a smile. "Certainly, Raymarine has helped us greatly there. We've gone from just competing in tournaments, to now regularly finishing in the top couple of boats."
Thorrington says having four Axioms MFDs – constantly giving him and his crew up-to-date information about what's happening in and around the boat – borders on an unfair advantage, especially the range of sonar channels and frequencies he can dial in and display. "I tend to use medium CHIRP in my day-to-day fishing when we're only fishing in 85 meters of water or less," he offers. "It gives you the ability to get a nice, clean screen. High CHIRP is good for looking for fish species on the bottom, and when we go to low CHIRP we're much deeper – usually deep-dropping in the canyons. I switch to low CHIRP in anything deeper than about 200 meters."
Thorrington became a Raymarine Ambassador about five years ago. "The Ambassadorship with Raymarine has been fantastic for us. They get thousands of hours on the water, and we get to test the new products," he says. "We get to develop those new products with Raymarine, so any problems are ironed out before they go into production. Ultimately, Raymarine makes it easier to catch fish and safer running out and coming back. It's easy. Now, we go hunting. We don't hope for a bite, we go and hunt fish… look for them, find them<|fim_middle|>."
Key Equipment On Board
Cyclone Pro
110 Watt open array with CHIRP Pulse Compression technology
FLIR M232
Compact pan/tilt marine thermal camera
2kW High performance, dual-channel, CHIRP Sonar module
Element HV
Chartplotters with HyperVision Sonar in 7, 9, and 12-inch display sizes. | , and catch them | 4 |
Traditional preventative security controls are no longer sufficient in the current<|fim_middle|> expensive – security analysts. | cyber threat landscape. Today, attackers are able to hide their activity behind the accounts of legitimate users. Fileless malware attacks have rendered sandboxes and application whitelisting solutions powerless. Additionally, cyber criminals have time and budget on their hands to continually look for a weakness in your organisation, and once inside, they have time to wait until the right opportunity presents itself.
How to detect unknown threats currently invisible to your traditional security systems?
Threat Hunting is the act of proactively looking for indicators of compromise on endpoints or servers. Threat Hunters are experienced security analysts, using their knowledge of defensive and offensive security techniques to seek out malicious threat actors. They use a combination of tools to spot the anomaly or suspicious behaviour that's occurring in your network.
Threat Hunters will find acts of compromise that neither your firewall, SIEM, IPS, anti-virus or other automated security technologies will detect. Considering it takes an average of 200 days for an organisation to realise they've been breached, it is highly likely you have been breached and don't know it.
Take your Security Operations Centre to the next level. Find the stealthy persistent attacks that traditional SIEM technology don't detect and are usually only discovered by the best and most | 246 |
Yep, we have Olympic fever at my house: watching everything from badminton (who knew THAT would be the big scandal this year??) to soccer to beach volleyball to archery to boxing.
I love most of the sports, but I must admit I can't watch balance beam. It makes me too nervous for those young women. I get anxious. I hide my face. I can't imagine if it were my daughter!
There are always glorious Olympic moments that stay with us forever. I'm still accumulating mine, but top of the list is Oscar Pistorius, the South African man born without legs who participated in track. Running? No legs? Yeah, that's great.
One of the joys of the Olympics is watching men and women use the bodies gave them to excel. If you remember the movie "Chariots of Fire", you will remember that one character (based on a real person), Eric Liddell was a deeply Christian man. He said, "I believe God made me for a purpose<|fim_middle|> the "enemy" | , but he also made me fast. And when I run I feel His pleasure."
For most of these men and women, they will live a life beyond the competitions they are currently enjoying. They have been made for a purpose. But what joy it is to watch them excel by utilizing the body God gave them with such purpose, excellence and power. And we get to revel in that with the whole world.
Breaking bread with | 85 |
Since 1997 Tender Transitions has offered unique and valuable services to seniors in the Omaha and Lincoln metro areas who are<|fim_middle|> a personalized moving plan and then we implement it. Our caring staff personally takes care of everything! We coordinate sorting, packing, moving, change of utilities/address, and unpacking. At the end of move day, everything is in its place and put away, the beds are made and all of the boxes are removed. Call or contact us so that we can show you how helpful and caring our service is! Our initial visit and consultation is always free.
We are a member of The Better Business Bureau of Nebraska, Southwest Iowa and South Dakota, as well as NASMM ( National Association of Senior Move Management ). | moving to new residences. We are an organization that professionally helps coordinate and implement all aspects of moving into new life situations. We take care of all the details to help smooth the process of transitioning from one residence to another.
Our goal is to take the stress out of moving by handling all of the overwhelming details. Tender Transitions works with you to develop | 70 |
Mandalay Place Signs 3 More Stores
Nike Golf, Just Cavalli and GF Ferré confirmed they will open stores at Mandalay Place, a new shopping center in Las Vegas.
LOS ANGELES — Las Vegas is getting some retail firsts.
Nike Golf and Just Cavalli confirmed their first-ever units will bow at Mandalay Place, the soon-to-be unveiled shopping center set on a sky bridge connecting the Mandalay Bay and Luxor Resorts, and GF Ferré said it will open its second American unit there, as well.
The center, with about 100,000 square feet<|fim_middle|> sales estimate is well above the national mall average of $330 a square foot, and possibly even on the conservative side, according to a spokeswoman for the International Council of Shopping Centers. Given what other Las Vegas malls pull in each year — like Forum Shops at $1,300 — she believes Mandalay Place could do upwards of $850 a square foot. "Indications show that sales will grow positively into 2004, barring any huge shock," she said. | of retail in all, is set to open in mid-October.
Nike Golf has slated a 2,644-square-foot door with a full range of men's and women's apparel, including the Tiger Woods line for men and the Verdana collection for women. The eight-year-old Nike division, which posts $100 million in annual sales, picked Las Vegas for its debut because "it's proven to be a winner at retail and because it is a year-round golf market," said a spokesman for the sports giant. If the unit is successful, Nike Golf will consider a retail rollout, but no other units are in the works, he said.
Roberto Cavalli's secondary line, Just Cavalli, is scheduled to open a 1,572-square-foot unit, the first of three freestanding stores on tap for the U.S., said Enrico Di Muccio, chief executive of IT Holdings USA, Cavalli's parent. Two more boutiques will open, at the Forum Shops at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas and in New York, by next spring, he said. There are four Just Cavalli units in Italy.
GF Ferré, Gianfranco Ferré's secondary line launched in Milan last June, has slated a 1,557-square-foot door. The brand's other U.S. store is in Bal Harbour, Fla. That was converted from Ferré Jeans three seasons ago, said Di Muccio. There are 12 GF Ferré units worldwide.
"Las Vegas is one of the best markets in the U.S.," Di Muccio said. "After three or four days there, [people] lose their sense of money."
As reported, Mandalay Place will be home to several teen retailers, too, including Urban Outfitters and Fornarina. Children's and women's store Oilily, Los Angeles lingerie designer Samantha Chang and women's swimwear boutique Sauvage also have confirmed stores.
John Zilliken, vice president and general manager of Mandalay Place, said he expects average sales in excess of $750 a square foot in the center's first year. An estimated 20 million people stay at hotels within walking distance of the center, annually, he pointed out.
The | 466 |
I had music tied to it before but I decided to remove it<|fim_middle|>en up the text while preserving the hover-over-makes-a-halo effect. | . There is hover text hidden in almost all the passages.
This game requires an interpreter program - refer to the game's documentation for details.
You can rate this game, record that you've played it, or put it on your wish list after you log in.
I made this to see what I could pull off with twine. I'm up to critiques and criticisms. I know I need improvement and input will definitely help.
Tags you added are shown below with checkmarks. To remove one of your tags, simply un-check it.
This game needs to be downloaded from dropbox before being played, and won't let you save. However, saving is not necessary for this game, because it's a relatively short demo of a Twine game, with many endings, all reachable in 2-5 choices.
The story is set in an alternate world, where the biggest change from our world is a kind of fire-knife thing carried by the protagonist. The main story is only a bit sketched in, but it's a kind of dystopian world like the beginning of Cape.
The author has done extensive styling of the game. There is a textured grayish-black background, as well as light gray text. When you run the cursor over a letter, it gets bright white, then slowly dims.
For me, the gray-on-gray was a bit difficult to read. It might work better to bright | 284 |
Ideally located along I-75 just north of the historic downtown shops and restaurants, The Heritage is your home for extraordinary senior living in Findlay, OH. Our top-tier community goes above and beyond to provide remarkable care to the seniors in our neighborhood. In addition to our close proximity to Blanchard Valley Hospital, our senior living community is ideally located near Findlay Vintage Mall, the University of Findlay, and Rawson Park. Our community provides a range of amenities, including exceptional nursing, customizable care plans, and a variety of care levels, including Assisted Living, Skilled Nursing, Memory Care and Short-Term<|fim_middle|> new topics ranging from health to spirituality to movement. Keeping it Sharp is a class dedicated to cognitive pursuits and is offered three times a week. If you want quiet time and the opportunity to engage in discussions about spirituality, check out our biweekly Inspirational Services. When you want to stretch your muscles and work on your range of motion, stop by the Vitality courses to improve your mobility, strength, and balance.
Everyone loves a home-cooked meal. At The Heritage, you can enjoy delectable, chef-inspired meals three times a day. For breakfast, lunch, and dinner, you can count on a tasty, delicious, and nutritious meal, beautifully prepared by our team of trained chefs. Our menu rotates frequently, offering you an array of cuisines. From tasty taco nights to scrumptious steak dinners, our chefs put together exceptional meals you are sure to savor and enjoy.
Schedule your tour of The Heritage today, and ask us about our Trilogy Guarantee! | Care. If you are searching for a caring and compassionate senior living community with a small-town feel and big-city amenities, look no further than The Heritage.
You can trust the professionals at The Heritage to provide up-to-date and attentive care at our Findlay senior living community. To ensure you can find a suite that suits you, we offer an array of customizable care levels. Our Assisted Living suites are an excellent choice for those who require some assistance with their day-to-day tasks and personal care. In our Skilled Nursing suites, seniors can find an extra level of clinical support. We're also proud to offer dedicated Memory Care suites, complete with amenities and programming designed to nurture and support those with Alzheimer's or other forms of memory loss. Get in touch today to learn more about our available care options.
At The Heritage, we raise the bar on great senior living in Findlay, OH. Let us help you determine the right care level for your unique health care needs. In addition to Long-Term Care, we provide flexible and short-term stays as well. Whether you're in need of a place to stay for a few days, a few weeks, or even a few months we can help. Our Rehabilitation services can help you get back to your daily routine after an injury, illness, or hospital stay. If you're a caregiver, you can turn to us for Adult Day and Respite Services. While you're running errands, taking a vacation, or tending to life's other obligations, your loved one can enjoy all the services we have to offer, paired with support that meets their every need.
At The Heritage we think a life of passion is a life well-lived. We want to help you enjoy every moment with the aid of our Signature Programs. You can choose your own schedule and spend your days learning about | 368 |
Belarus | ZENA will represent Belarus at Eurovision with 'Like It'
This year, Belarus are one of the last countries to confirm<|fim_middle|> of last years Junior Eurovision Song Contest! Check out her winning performance of 'Like It' here:
Are you a fan of the winner? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below or via our social media on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram & YouTube. Subscribe for the latest Eurovision news, updates and exclusive video content in the lead up to Tel Aviv!
National Final | their Eurovision entry and tonight marked the second last National Final of the 2019 season. Following the auditions at the start of February, broadcaster BTRC selected ten finalists to participate in tonight's national final with the winner winning the right to represent Belarus at the Eurovision Song Contest 2019 in Tel Aviv, Israel. ZENA was crowned the winner with 'Like It'.
The ten competing finalists and their entries were:
1. Michael Soul - "Humanize"
2. ZENA - "Like It"
3. Eva Kogan - "Run"
4. BLGN & Mirex - "Champion"
5. Sebastian Roos - "Never Getting Close"
6. Alyona Gorbachova - "Can We Dream"
7. PROvokatsiya - "Running Away From The Sun"
8. Aura - "Čaravala"
9. NAPOLI - "Let It Go"
10. KeySi - "No Love Lost"
The outcome was decided by solely by a jury vote - with seven jurors ranking each performance straight after the song was performed. Each juror was able to award a score out of 10 points and then the winner was the act with the highest score overall - out of a possible seventy. The final scores can be seen below:
ZENA - 69/70
BLGN & Mirex - 65/70
Sebastian Roos - 62/70
Michael Soul - 59/70
Alyona Gorbachova - 59/70
KeySi - 59/70
NAPOLI - 58/70
PROvokatsiya - 55/70
Aura - 55/70
Eva Kogan - 54/70
After all acts performed, it was confirmed that ZENA won with a winning score of 69/70. Junior Eurovision fans will recognise ZENA as being one of the two hosts | 426 |
Metslawier (The Netherlands) and Lima (Peru), 28 April 2016 – The International Potato Center (CIP), global seed potato company HZPC and the Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture (SFSA) have announced a new partnership. Their joint aim is to develop better potatoes for tropical and subtropical conditions.
CIP and HZPC will combine their experience and resources to breed and select potato varieties suitable for local markets in South<|fim_middle|> as helping improve farmers' livelihoods, the partnership is also breaking new ground in connection with the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture (Plant Treaty). It is the first such agreement in which partners have committed to contributing a percentage of the income from royalties to the Treaty's benefit-sharing fund.
"It's a privilege to combine forces with HZPC in benefiting smallholder farmers in the developing world", said Barbara Wells, CIP Director General.
The Plant Treaty is an international agreement with 139 signatory countries. Its aim is to guarantee food security through the conservation, exchange and sustainable use of the world's plant genetic resources for food and agriculture. CIP maintains and distributes its germplasm all over the world in accordance with this treaty.
"We are excited to be a part of this effort to deliver improved tropical potato varieties that fulfil a need in all sectors and are resilient to biotic and abiotic stresses", said Mike Robinson, Chief Scientist for the SFSA.
The International Potato Center, known by its Spanish acronym CIP, was founded in 1971 as a root and tuber research-for-development institution delivering sustainable solutions to the pressing world problems of hunger, poverty, and the degradation of natural resources. CIP is truly a global center, with headquarters in Lima, Peru and offices in 20 developing countries across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Working closely with our partners, CIP seeks to achieve food security, increased well-being, and gender equity for poor people in the developing world. CIP furthers its mission through rigorous research, innovation in science and technology, and capacity strengthening regarding root and tuber farming and food systems.
CIP is part of the CGIAR Consortium, a global partnership that unites organizations engaged in research for a food secure future. CGIAR research is dedicated to reducing rural poverty, increasing food security, improving human health and nutrition, and ensuring more sustainable management of natural resources. Donors include individual countries, major foundations, and international entities.
Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture (SFSA*) focuses on smallholders, productivity, and markets. The Foundation works with partners in developing countries and emerging markets. The Foundation's aim is to help small farmers become more professional growers. This is done by extending science-based know-how, facilitating access to quality inputs, and linking smallholders to markets in profitable ways. This adds value for rural communities, and sustainably improves food security.
HZPC is the innovative world leader in potato breeding, seed potato trade and product concept development. HZPC breeders develop seed potato varieties that optimally match local growing conditions. With HZPC, local potato growers are able to respond dynamically to the needs of their market and market segments such as industry, retail chains and traditional consumer market channels.
HZPC operates worldwide with 300 employees in more than 10 countries and exports to over 80 countries. HZPC is owned by 800 of its international seed potato growers and employees. By using HZPC varieties and seed potatoes, potato growers worldwide can achieve a sustainable and healthy crop growth, while taking responsibility for people and the environment into account. | Asia. SFSA will provide support. This public-private partnership demonstrates the organization's' joint aim of raising the quality and quantity of food production for a growing world population.
Under the agreement, CIP and HZPC will focus on research and development. HZPC will also apply its strength in the commercialization of potato varieties and seed potatoes; CIP will contribute its know-how in the development of varieties for sustainable production in the tropics. Both HZPC and CIP are contributing potato germplasm to the endeavor. Their scientists will aim to find the best combination of traits from HZPC potatoes for temperate regions and CIP's varieties adapted for tropical lowlands and smallholder farmers. Improved, market-preferred varieties will enable smallholders to raise their yields and income. The breeding program is intended to run for five years.
As well | 172 |
C<|fim_middle|> estate in Carmel, IN. If you aren't ready to sell this spring consider getting your home ready over the next year or so to focus on next year's spring market. Should you need to sell sooner, fall is a great time as well. We'd be happy to work with you to give you a comparative market analysis of your home and speak about timing your sale just right. A Carmel, IN real estate agent will have their finger on the pulse of the market and know the best way to proceed. We hope to hear from you soon. Contact a Carmel, IN real estate agent today! | armel, IN – Neighbors Selling Their Home?
Spring is on it's way in and along with that gorgeous Carmel, IN spring weather we will also begin to see a ramp up in homes for sale. Springtime is known as the best time to list your home for sale in Carmel, IN and 2016 is no exception. Many homes have come on the market in the last few weeks and this will continue for some time. If one of your neighbors has recently listed their home for sale there is some studying you should do to prepare yourself and your home for a future home sale.
Be the nosy neighbor at the open house. Be nosy, well, not that nosy. There is plenty that you can learn by asking your neighbor what kind of feedback they are receiving from their showings and open houses. Or, you can ask to attend the open house and see how prospective buyers are reacting to their home. Chances are their home is pretty similar to yours and you will be able to gauge what you may need to change about your home prior to listing it on the Carmel, IN real estate market.
Did the house sell, and how fast? Its easy to get hung up on the number the home is listed for, but, the more important number is how much it actually sold for. A home priced right will sell quickly and an over priced home may take some time and several price changes to finally sell. Once your neighbor's home sells, compare the sale price and the amount of time it took to get a better idea on where your home may be priced.
Timing is everything. As we previously mentioned spring is a very busy time for real | 340 |
This semester, we will pursue an opportunity to publish digital media scholarship<|fim_middle|> me and I'll get back to you pretty quickly, except at night when I do not check email (after 6pm usually).
a Search feature for the class blog, Recent Posts & the Calendar of Posts.
the Blogroll, where I will include a list of links to all of your individual course blogs, which each of you will set up on the first day of class.
Please let me know if you have any questions. You can comment on this post or email me.
This entry was posted in introductions and tagged welcome on August 24, 2010 by admin. | in an online, peer-reviewed journal. If that sounds boring or scary or doesn't even make sense; give me a week to show you it will be fun, innovative, and offer you a more strategic way of communicating with peers, teachers, and future employers. This class isn't about writing papers. It isn't even about "writing," unless your definition of writing includes composing with multiple media and digital technology. You do not have to be a technological expert to do well in this class. You will be learning technologies throughout; sometimes you will know more or less than your classmates, and even more or less than I do. We will all help each other as we proceed.
About describes the course goals and learning outcomes.
the Expectations page describes this course's policies, required texts and technologies, grading and value systems.
the Assignments pages describe all the major assignments you will complete. Some of these are posted already, but they might change as the course morphs through the semester, so make sure to check back when I make assignments.
the Schedule has the weekly calendar for this class, including reading assignments, what we're doing in class that day, and other homework.
the Resources page links to handouts, useful technology-tip websites, and course permission forms.
the Instructor information, including my contact information. I will sometimes be in my office on Wednesdays before or after class, but the best way to ensure catching me is to email me and make an appointment. I do not have scheduled office hours because one hour a week won't do much good for of-the-moment questions. Email | 321 |
Joshua Walsh was born in Detroit, Michigan. He began creating at a very young age and would enter the Center for Creative Studies, Detroit at the age of fifteen on a portfolio preperation program. With numerous scholarships, Walsh headed west to pursue his degree at the university of Nebraska, Lincoln and study at the Concordia College, Seward. It was in Sewerd, Walsh would meet and eventually assist and study under the german master Rienhold Marxhausen, a master of creativity. This eventually led to an art education in Europe. Here Walsh traveled extensively throughout: Holland, Germany, France, and Italy. For the first time Walsh was looking face to face<|fim_middle|> an artist. By that I mean, Im not just a painter or a sculptor, I love the discovering of different mediums, new and old, the challenges they afford and the curiosity that keeps me interested in life."
Leather work
joshua walsh fine art
Copyright joshua walsh fine art. All Rights Reserved. | with the great masters he had studied his entire life. " I had no idea how deeply these painters and sculptors would change my direction, my life!" says walsh. " So many of the masters work, incorporated this beautiful light that I had never seen, a light that would consume me and my work for well over two decades." The list would be to long, but a few of my biggest influences would include: Rembrandt, Michelangelo, Caravaggio, VanGough, and Manet. The list go's on and on, but It would be Rembrandt who would captivate the young artist and send him on an artistic journey to capture "light".
In 1993 Walsh packed up his belongings and headed south to New Orleans. " I knew I wanted to pursue my art full time, and I knew, from family trips to New Orleans, that I could explore the culture and magic of this city that had resignated with me since childhood. There is no other place like it in the world, so distinctively unique. New Orleans would become my home, my life, my muse." After living through Hurricane Kartina, Walsh helped rebuild the city and restore the art community. " It was probably the worst tragedy I have ever experienced in life, so much destruction and loss, so much death, it breaks my heart. We will forever be changed."
Walsh has traveled extensively throughout the states, always seeking out inspiration. "Our country fascinates me, so many diverse cultures culminating in a lifetime of inspiration that both aids me and enables me to continue my pursuit of imagination and art."
"As you can see through these pages, I would consider myself | 346 |
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Other Fan Fiction ❯ KISS Next Generation ❯ Blackwell's agent revealed ( Chapter 21 )
[ T - Teen: Not suitable for readers under 13 ]
By: StarbearerTM
A small seed of doubt sprouts into a forest of doom. The Four who are one are scattered, but can they reunite in time to stop what has been set in motion?
Miscellaneous: Other Fan Fiction | Genre(s): Sci-fi / Post-apocalyptic / Cyberpunk | Type: Songfic | Uploaded On: 11.13.2007 | Pages: 11 | Words: 19.4K | Visits: 137 | Status: Completed
Blackwell's Agent
By TryniaMerin
Disclaimer: This story is a work of fiction. I don't own KISS, or its members or their mentioned family members herein, and this story means no harm. It's a work of a devoted fan for the enjoyment of other KISS Army soldiers. Some of the ideas in this book come from Christine Criss (forever_a_kissgirl@yahoo.com) whose character appears in this story.
By Trynia Merin, Christine, and Shea
Back in the laboratory complex, Tamara wandered from lab bench to laboratory bench, putting the flask over a Bunsen burner while
Christine impatiently watched. Pages were open in the lab notebook to her left, and Tamara brushed past her to set a vial into a machine called a spectrometer.
"How can you be playing with chemicals while they're gone and the power's not back on fully…"
"I have to do something while I'm waiting," Tamara said. "And anyway, I'm trying to figure out how to make a synthetic protein from raw materials."
"Why don't you just transmute something into food?" Christine asked.
"It's not that easy. I can't change complex molecules…" Tamara said. "Not without a huge investment in power…"
"This isn't lunch is it?" Christine asked as she turned up her nose at a flask of foul smelling tar burbling nearby. It looked as unappetizing as tar.
"No, that's a batch of raw crude," Tamara said. She used large asbestos gloves to pick up the flask by the top. Carefully she poured it into the bottom of a large round flask with a neck.
Christine helped her to lug it over to a giant still, and clamp it on. "This isn't moonshine… is it?"
"Crude oil, and a distillation column," Tamara said. She climbed up on a ladder, and poured white silicon sand down into the heart of the long tall column. The strange gel substance<|fim_middle|> is that it?" Gene asked.
"That's the only thing we can do, till the mole acts," said Christine. "I'm sorry, I think it sucks ass, but it's the best we can do…"
"Are you afraid it might be Paul or Tamara?" Gene asked.
"It could be. Jesus, Gene, you didn't think I figured it was possible? How much it freaks me to realize my best friends could be my worst enemies? Damn…"
"I'm sorry," Gene said, as he saw her leapt out of bed, and grab a robe to throw around herself. "I guess that's the plan. Making us all jumpy, fighting one another instead of…"
A loud klaxon ground its harsh noise in their ears, and obliterated the rest of Gene's words. He cursed as he heard Paul's voice echoing in their heads, and the two of them looked at one another. "What the fuck is that now?" Christine muttered.
"That's new," Gene commented as he summoned his armor and costume, the scarlet energy surging about him as he regained his alternate form. "Since when did we have an audible alarm? Paul always gives us a psi holler…"
"Not good… I don't think it's Paul who…"
"Gene… Christine… It wasn't me," came Paul's thoughts. "It was Mona… from the Criss home…"
"Shit, we're coming… what is it?"
"A sign of Vanessa and company…" Paul's answer came, and Gene glanced to Christine, who had just gotten dressed. They rushed together out of his master bedroom, and almost flew down the stairs.
Paul moaned and held his head, feeling the siren pound through it. Tamara also gritted her teeth, loud sounds almost paralyzing her. Red lights blasted, and Paul realized that he couldn't hear anything but the siren wailing. Bold upright he sat in the bed, having surfaced from a sleep that was incredibly deep. Tamara curled up, holding her ears as she lay on her side, teeth clenched.
"I can't… I can't…" Paul gasped. Thankfully the klaxon stopped, and the silence was a relief. Something rang in both their ears, and they glanced at one another. Paul's fear surged when he realized that his psi probes were scrambled. His brown eyes widened, and he glanced at Tamara with horror. "That's never happened before I always…"
"I can hardly hear you," Tamara said as she lowered her hands from her ears. He realized he couldn't see anything except in the dim red light of the backup lights.
"Danger and I wasn't woken up… I would hear someone if they were having problems, we never had to set the alarm unless someone couldn't…" Paul trailed off.
"Have there been any signs of unusual energy?" Tamara quickly asked, her ears still ringing from the deafening siren.
"Yes… that's the problem. "
"Dad…" came Elliot's voice in his mind. "I couldn't sense you… or Mom, or…"
"Ell, you couldn't…" asked Paul as he sat up. "You couldn't hear me in your mind… I can sense your thoughts but…"
"Nobody else's… everyone's… blank… I can only sense the other Star children…" answered Elliot frenetically.
"I hear you, Ell," Tamara telepathed, and looked at Paul's dark eyes, and then she saw that he was in his human form, his whiteface gone.
"You're human," she said aloud, and then realized she couldn't hear herself because of the ringing in her ears. Paul nodded, and saw as she pointed to his image in the mirror. She however was still in her alternate form, and it made him consider some nasty possibilities.
"I can't feel Gene, or the others. I only feel you, Ell, and your brother… everyone else… there's just… nothing…" Paul shivered, shaking convulsively.
"Your powers are negated?" Tamara asked. She leapt up out of bed, and then dragged the sheet with her, forming it into clothes as she ran towards the purple box lined with black felt. She opened it up, and Paul felt the Star talisman surging its energies through him as he was bathed in its radiance.
"I… that's better," Paul muttered as he took the Star from Tamara, and held it to his chest.
"Dad," said Elliot as he rushed in, and then averted his gaze. "You too?"
"Paul, Elliot… you've got to come quickly," Mona's voice crackled over the short range collar radio. "You have to see what Jendel's detected… a massive EM surge that whipped out all the electronics… except for our collar radios…"
"How can that be when radio waves…"
"It fried everything…" said
"I honestly couldn't sense her, and then Mona…" Elliot said with fear.
"Can you think to me now?" Paul asked, his mind struggling to transmit.
"Yes," came Elliot's voice in his head. Both men were wide eyed, visibly trembling, as if from withdrawal symptoms, while Tamara felt the darkness seeming to close in on them. Paul tossed the star to her, and summoned his costume.
"Stay here, I'm going to get to the bottom of this… Ell, where's Jean?"
"Mona what the HELL is going on?" bellowed Jeannie from the hall. Father and Son exchanged looks, and they knew the answer as they heard the thump of her footsteps echoing. By now the ringing was dying down, and they could hear more clearly.
Elliot rushed out of the room, and Tamara saw Paul close behind. "Wait for me…"
"Stay here… there's something horribly wrong going down…" Paul's thoughts echoed. Tamara snorted, and then realized she was holding the surging star in her hands, its warmth shooting through her. Taking a moment to return it to its box, she summoned her clothes. In minutes she let herself drop through the molecules of the floor to land in the room below.
Christine and Gene were rushing out of the upstairs as they saw her there. Fr. Atomique was carrying the orange egg with purple stars on it as he rushed out, and he saw her. "Sis, I couldn't sense you, and then Ell's got me babysitting this…"
"You volunteered to help with duties, don't look at me," Tamara said as he saw Susan and Nathan glancing around in confusion. Susan made to take the egg from him as he and the others moved out into the sitting room. Mona was there, pacing as Tyler held the two kittens, which were mewling and yowling as babies did. Elliot took the egg from Fr. Atomique and Jeannie slipped it into the front of her long red robe, where her own body heat would keep it incubated.
"So we're all here, what's going on?" asked Gene.
"Sorry about the wakeup, but I had to get you all awake… I couldn't get your minds to respond when I…" Mona said.
"Shit, you could have…" Paul muttered.
"I couldn't get you to wake up," Mona said with fear. "Something was stopping my mind from reaching yours…"
"Something drained my powers," said Paul, and Elliot nodded.
"You too, shit?" Christine shivered. "This is NOT good."
"And neither is this," said Ray as she walked out, wearing a bathrobe and yawning.
"Where were you?" Gene asked.
"Figuring out the source of the disturbance, what else?" Ray said. "I told you that we should've set up the geological equipment sooner."
"What does THAT have to do with anything…?" Gene asked, but Ray's impatient look silenced the answer.
"You'd know if you'd listened…"
"Don't be like that, Mom, they don't know," said Jeannie irritated.
"Does this have to do with the huge EM flux Jendell reported before it crashed?" Mona asked.
"Crashed?" Tyler asked.
"I just got it running on backup," Mona said as she punched keys on a console. Slowly, lights around the house complex began to flicker back on. "But that's only because someone remembered to fill the tank with diesel…"
"Someone's got some good sense," Gene snorted. "Filled it yesterday… seems like we needed it."
"How long will it last?" asked Paul.
"Long enough for me to get things back online," said Mona with a sigh. "God, this is nuts…"
"So… let me get this straight, some EM thing wiped out our power, and crashed Jendel… and somehow made us all lose our powers temporarily?" asked Tyler. "Shit…"
"How mental energy could be affected by EM power?" asked Elliot, scratching his head. "I mean… Jeannie, you and Aunt Ray said something about how cosmic rays, solar flares, all that can stop broadcasts."
"And magnets can wipe out computers," said Tyler. "And those MRI scanners, Jeannie you said they'd wipe out credit cards… and they're electromagnets…"
"But if the sun's light is blocked, where would the EM come from?" asked Tamara. "An artificial source?"
"Balls of charged plasma are generated by the earth, when two plates move," Ray said. "Remember that theory about UFO's preceding earthquakes? Those are balls of charged plasma, generated by the earth's friction… of great stress building up…"
"But the mental powers going out?" asked Paul. "Our minds are not based on EM power…"
"They are," Jeannie said. "I mean the human body generates a weak EM field, but that wouldn't drain our powers…"
"But… the temporal lobe in the brain can be screwed up with a strong enough magnetic field, can't it?" Tamara suggested. Everyone blinked.
"True," Jeannie said. "But it would take a POWERFUL em field to do it…"
"Couldn't that charged plasma Ray is mentioning do it though?" Tamara said. "Chemicals when they are excited by UV light, or IR light, give spectrums. That's how I measure chemicals, with spectroscopy. There's also something called NMR that is like your MRI that excites molecules. So do microwaves. The human body's full of transition metals in our proteins. And they can be affected in such a way by any EM radiation…"
"Exactly," Ray said grimly. "And that's why you should have listened to me, Gene, when I said it was important to build seismography equipment…"
"Who cares, what do we do now?" asked Gene angrily. "Are you saying we're going to have a major earthquake?"
"Yes possibly," Ray said. "We have to leave this place. It's geologically unstable… close to the san Andres fault…"
"Someone should alert Bruce and Eric then," said Tamara.
"They aren't as close to the fault line… they're further inland… but yes, someone should inform them," said Ray.
"I could call them… but Simone and Peter…" Tamara said.
"I'll contact `em," Tyler said. "And Ace…"
"I'll call him, to see if there's anything he can…" Mona trailed off, and then blinked when something snapped into her head.
"We should leave," said Ray.
"How long do we have?" Gene asked. "How do we know for sure?"
"If we don't leave in the next forty eight hours, the quake will consume this area, liquefy the dirt, and your home will be worth nothing…"
"Where can we go?" Paul asked.
"To the hills," said Ray. "Towards the mountains. If we get started, we can reach there by tomorrow…"
"Wait, excuse me, but aren't there mutants out there? WE could die if they attack us…" said Tyler quickly.
"We'd better get my dad and Simone back here they can…"
"Fine, you do that. Get them back here…" Gene said quickly. "And Mona, get in touch with Ace… unless Paul…"
"I can try to get him with my mental powers, but I can't give any guarantees… with my power being the way it is…" Paul trailed off.
"What about your radios?" asked Christine.
"These are only good with each other. They lose range over fifty miles or more. And the waves are somehow getting distorted when I've tried to call," Paul muttered.
"This is all too convenient," Tamara muttered to Elliot.
"What?" he asked.
"Radio waves should be able to travel without problems," said Tamara. "I mean TV signals do…"
"That's further evidence of EM bursts, and solar flares," said Ray quickly.
"She's right," said Gene gruffly.
"If solar rays can penetrate then how can," Tamara began to ask, and shook her head at the inconsistencies. "I could talk to Bruce…"
"Then what are we waiting for?" Tyler asked.
"Good point. You all contact `em and meet back here with your results," Gene said. "I need to talk to Ray and Paul. The rest of you, just keep calm, and then we'll think of what to do…"
Tamara glanced at Paul, who nodded. Her brother walked alongside her, while Christine followed. Tyler and Mona took the kittens, walking back to the small home they had, exchanging glances of confusion. Elliot glanced at his father, and Jeannie, and Gene's two other children in anticipation. "What should I do…?"
"Christine, Ell, Padre, take the others, and get something to eat," said Gene. "Make some coffee, and some food. We're all gonna need it. Report in the kitchen in an hour… and let us know what Bruce, Eric, Ace and Peter say…"
As they walked in separate directions, Tamara sensed Paul's voice reassuring in her mind, and Elliot's trepidation. Tamara felt Elliot walk beside her, while Jeannie fell in behind Christine, and the Padre. Ray and Gene stood together with Paul, in a small circle. It wasn't till everyone exited that Ray again spoke.
"Tyler, what's wrong, kid?" Peter Criss asked, as he sat down on the rock by the burbling stream. Here the upright bones of trees were partly obscuring sky. It was a piece of forest that was still struggling to survive, and the water itself was cold and somewhat pure. Beside him, Simone perked her ears up, and shifted to human form like mercury.
"Dad, it's pretty bad. Things are going whacko and Genes…"
"Gene's full of crap," Peter muttered. "What did he do now?"
"I'm worried, Dad. Mona doesn't want to leave, but I think… and then Tamara…"
"How is Tamara?" asked Simone as she moved up. "Why aren't our radios working why aren't…"
"Easy love," Peter said as he reassured her. "I've kept trying to call you guys. But I only get static… I thought that…"
"I wondered why also. I thought you were pissed. I kept trying to call you…and you wanted me to keep from telling Gene that we were in touch… but this is serious…"
"I only last heard from you a week ago. Simone and I've been making our way back south… we've been seeing the mutant hunt rise, and we've found some good places with good eats and fresh water, and plenty of room…. But…"
"Tamara… is she… I can't get through…" said Simone in frustration.
"She's fine, for now," Tyler said quickly. "She misses you. And the long range radio…"
"Damn, we're gone a week and…" Simone trailed off.
"How far away are you?" asked Tyler quickly. He seemed wary, nervous from the sound in his voice. The small portable long range radio communicator was a flat object that had the ability to burn through signals and relieves distortions. Peter had to carefully take care of it. He'd only bothered to call once every few days, and Tyler had promised to keep their communications to a minimum, till he was no longer sore at Gene or Ace. Ace for blaming Shandi, and Gene for suggesting this `leave'.
"We're only fifteen miles away from the hills from the north… coming down the coast…" said Peter. "If we run we can make it in two days…"
"Dad, hurry up… are you sure you don't want me to call Ace…"
"He'd have to fuckin apologize first," Peter muttered. "And stop treating Shandi like…"
"Dad, this is serious. Mona's scared, and everything's nuts. We got all these emails from these screwy silver suited…"
"We know," Peter growled. "We just ran into `em, and made `em regret they found us. They've been picking' up survivors that we've smelled… and when we get close, the settlements are deserted…"
"So there ARE other people?"
"Yes," said Simone. "But the same smell everywhere…"
"Shit, this is great…" muttered Tyler. "Look, Ray MacLaren's thinking an earthquake's gonna hit and…"
"An earthquake, are you serious?" Peter laughed. "I felt a few tremors, but there's no quake happening…"
"What?" Tyler asked. "But Ray said…"
"Don'tcha know how to tap into the Earth's field?" Peter asked. "The earth has its scents and stuff. Powerful science stuff to some, but instinct t' you and me. If there WAS gonna be a quake you'dve felt it by now… and Id've also… even where we've been. Nah, if there's ANY quake gonna happen it's not from nature… the soonest one's only a month or so away…"
"Ray says we only have forty eight hours and we should go to the hills…"
"She's crazy," said Simone. "That's where the silver suits have been taking people. The scents lead to the Nevada Mountains…"
"Crap…" Tyler trailed off.
"Tyler… quick… something's happening…" came Mona's voice. "I think…"
"Hold on Dad, I'll call back…"
"Tyler…" Peter called. "Tyler? Shit, this friggin thing…"
"Peter, I don't like this at all!" Simone growled as the radio crackled. "I smell… something rotten…"
"So do I… we'd better get a move, sweets," he said as he morphed into his panther form. Simone's bones and sinews crackled as she became a red wolf, with golden eyes. Together they bounded off towards the south, and Los Angeles.
"How long?" she panted, in their own language.
"Two days solid running… with rests in between," Peter panted, in a low growl. "Shit, I was friggin afraid of this… we shouldn't have left `em all…"
"You said that you needed to get away, to find a place we could all live because you sensed a big quake coming in a month… and he's saying it's in two days… that's not right and you and I know it. Why doesn't he?"
"He's still learning t' use his earth sensing' powers and stuff," Peter muttered. "Shit, I should have gotten him to bring Mona, and the kids…"
"She didn't wanna leave, and you know it…" said Simone. "And besides, I asked Tamara to come with us, but she said she had to stay with Paul, and stuff. And she and Paul left to join Bruce n' Eric…"
"We'll get the answers, sweetheart," Peter promised as they bounded towards the thickening choking smog, and felt the air grow thick with its pollutants. Both prayed they'd make it in time. Still Simone wondered why Peter wouldn't swallow his pride, and contact Ace. Mainly because whatever was screwing up the radio transmissions was making it impossible. Their collar radios didn't have the range, and their long range radio was faulty at best. Yet it seemed as if it was deliberately keeping them cut off from the others.
"Daddy, I'm scared," Mona said with tremulous voice as she spoke into the comm. One of the kittens teleported in and out, and materialized near where Tyler was sitting, across the room. Both were huddled over their screens, telling their separate accounts. Knowing that Ace and Peter were not on speaking terms was painful enough, but being cut off was even worse.
"Mona, you know I wanna teleport down there, dammit…" Ace said quickly.
"It was your plan, you were right," said Mona. "Someone IS screwing with us…"
"Shit," Ace muttered. "And time n' space is Swiss cheese… dammit, you port yourself and the kittens and Tyler up here now…"
"But Daddy, you said that porting the kittens…"
"They're more important than our pride. Get `em up here… and we'll figure out the mess later…"
"But Jeannie and Elliot…"
"They'll be welcome up here too if they wanna… that ol' bastard fucking up the leading…" Ace asked.
"No. But Ray said that there was gonna be an earthquake and we'd all have to leave in two days…"
"Bullshit," Ace said. "I've got satellite pictures monitoring everything. And other than that big EM pulse there's no evidence… speaking of which… I guess you saw it… any ideas?'
"You mean you don't know what caused it?"
"I thought it was you figuring something out… or maybe those silver goons doing something…" Ace said.
"No daddy, I don't know… but I'm scared… and now they want us to leave and…"
"Leave, and come up here… I'll send you a signal, and then you can all teleport…"
"Daddy, the others…"
"I'm sure Gene'll be ok. I mean he's got that new woman with him, the black widow chick. And Paul's got that Atomic Girl. She's able t' make anything they need, if she learns her powers right. But you've gotta be safe…"
"Daddy is Shandi and Kiara…"
"They're okay. Safe from that Vanessa chick. But if they get ahold of your kids too…"
"I'll get Tyler and we can go up there, soon," said Mona quickly. "But what should I tell the others?"
"Tell Paul. I'm sure he'll get it. But don't go blabbin' to too many other people. They'll know when they have to know. And twist Ell's arm to get him and his kids up here too I think…"
"I don't think Gene would let his daughter leave…" said Mona.
"Stubborn asshole," Ace muttered. "Figures. We only have enough space for five or six up here right now, but we can send down stuff…"
"When can we come?" Mona asked.
"Why in the next few hours," said Ace. "I'll scan for a break, and then flash you. Then you port your butt up here with the kittens and…"
"Mona…" came Tyler's voice. "What's he saying?"
"He says we should go up to the station…"
"I lost touch with my dad," said Tyler. "Ace, please, what's going on, have you…"
"You and your lady should get your asses up here, I'm fixing t' port you," Ace said. "In two hours… get ready…"
"But I can't just…" Tyler trailed off.
"Shit, you have to protect your kids. I've been scanning and those chikara sigs are worse. And Mona says the EM's not you, and I'm seeing another source in the mountains…"
"No buts. Get ready to leave," Ace called. "I'll call you in two hours…"
"Why can't I get Peter…?" Tyler called as Ace's link crackled off, and Mona glanced at him in distress.
"We have to go. Ace will keep us safe. But the others…"
"I guess they'll have to be okay. My dad and Simone are on their way here…" Tyler muttered as he held one of their kittens and Mona held the other.
"We need to tell Elliot, and Jeannie… and Paul… and Tammi…"
"Yeah. I heard your dad say to not tell Gene. What's up with that? Is he…"
"I don't know," Mona sniffled, shaking her head. "It's all so damn confusing I…"
They heard a crackling sound, and a bit of masonry fell on their noses. Tyler leapt up, and Mona threw up a vibratory shell as they heard the rumbling and felt the earth heaving under them. Something acrid filled Tyler's nostrils and he drew close to Mona and his kittens.
"Ell, are you there?" Tyler shouted.
"Yes… what's going on…? I felt a quake…"
"Mona and I, we're fixing to get outta here… Ace said he could rescue us till we figure out what's going on…" said Tyler. "But we didn't wanna just go…"
"You should go," Elliot said quietly. "I think you'd be safer. Your dads would want it that way. Ray says we should go, but she didn't say where… and Jeannie and I are pretty torn. I'm thinking we should go to Bruce and Eric if they'll have us…"
"I don't like this, I don't want us all to split up," Mona whispered to Tyler.
"We've got no choice," Jeannie's voice echoed. "You guys can go. It's not a problem. Besides, we've been through worse. And you and your kids will be safe in space… while Ell and I take care of things here…"
"I hope you understand… we aren't abandoning you, not like…" Mona stammered.
"Wait, hold that… I'm sensing… something…" Elliot called out, and then they heard his cry of pain.
"Ell, what's…?" Tyler trailed off.
"Something's wrong… something's very wrong… I…" came Jeannie's voice and then a loud roar followed by silence. Tyler growled, and Mona glanced at him in fear.
"Someone's here… all around us… we gotta go NOW!" Tyler growled as he shifted into his were form. Mona gasped as he shoved her aside when the wall shattered like cheap glass.
"Did you hear that?" Christine asked as she tensed up, and Tamara felt the ground swaying under her. There came a rumbling boom, and they landed on their feet. Flasks dropped off the tables and shattered, while test tubes rattled in their racks.
"Hear it… I feel it…" Tamara gasped, pulling her friend under a lab counter. The mica-topped table would provide shelter should the roof collapse.
"Mother F… that can't be the earthquake," muttered Christine. As soon as it had started, it stopped, and both women looked at one another, crouched under the lab table.
"Mona, can you hear me… its Tamara."
"Tamara… thank God… You've got to…" came Mona's voice before it was cut off. Christine let loose a low growl, and Tamara felt her heart starting to pound. Something didn't sound right.
"That's no static…" Christine muttered as she climbed out from under the lab table. "Something's wrong… I can smell it…"
"Wait for me," said Tamara.
"Paul and Gene should've been back by now. How friggin long does it take to get to Bruce and Eric's anyway?"
"I know, that distress call after all the crazy breaks in communication," Tamara muttered. They heard hissing static from Tamara's collar radio, and Mona's voice coming back on.
"It's okay… Kittens were scared. Don't' worry…" came her voice again.
"Are you…what the hell happened?" Christine asked, pushing on her own link. Static crackled and hissed, and both the chemist and the warrior exchanged questioning glances.
Fr. Atomique rushed in, and saw Tamara partly under the lab counter. "Sis, you okay? I felt that tremor… I was headed over to find Ell and Jean… but they're missing…"
"Missing, how?" Christine asked.
"That's what I'd like to know… there's something screwy… I sensed Elliot's mind one minute and nothing the next…"
He moved over and helped Tamara to stand. "What do you mean?" Tamara asked.
"It's the same thing as what happened before…"
Lights flickered, and they heard the rumbling again as static wheezed over their radios. Sparks exploded, and the lab computer blew up. Tamara yelped, while Christine pushed the flask that burst into flames out of the way. Gasping, Tamara stood up and started at the fire, which was starting to spread from flask to flask of flammable liquids. The air around seemed to mist and solidify, till it coated the chemicals in foam. Flames snuffed out easily.
"Shit," Christine muttered. "Terrific…"
"That was no accident…" Fr. Atomique muttered.
"I don't like this either… it's just too convenient…" Tamara nodded.
"I'm gonna go find them. Make sure they're upstairs…"
"I'll check on Mona… that sounded fishy…"
"I'll come with you…"
"No, stay here… just in case Gene, Paul, or someone else calls…"
"Dammit not you too!" Tamara cursed as both her friends nodded.
"You need to stay here. I'm sure it's something I can handle, more or less," said Christine. "I'm not trying to be a bitch, but we don't wanna have something worse happen… I can probably make sure it's crying for mercy..."
"Sis, we'll be okay… after all, Gene and Paul will be back, and I'm sure that Jeannie and Tyler will kick their butts… when I scare the hell out of them…" Fr. Atomique nodded. Both of them quickly walked out of the lab, and Tamara opened her mouth to protest. However her brother's mental reprimand made her want to scream.
"Tyler, Mona? Can you hear me?" Tamara asked, but there was static on her radio.
Fr. Atomique rushed upstairs, suddenly able to sense Elliot's thoughts. They were upstairs with the egg of course. Nathan and Susan were somewhere nearby, but emotions ran tense. A loud growl sounded, and he could swear it sounded like Jeannie when she was pissed.
"Get OUT of here," she snarled. He heard the tinkling of glass, and something tearing. Quickly he rushed forwards toward the room.
"Fr. Atomique, get help!" blared Elliot's voice in his mind. Suddenly he felt something slam into his mind with a spike of intense pain. Gasping he held his chest as he stumbled down the hall, and pushed the door open.
Elliot groaned, holding his head as he knelt by a wall. Jeannie was nowhere to be seen, and Fr. Atomique leaned down to help him. "What's wrong…"
"I can't… Jeannie… she's gone… the egg…" Ell moaned, as Fr. Atomique tapped into his body. Slowly he pushed with his own vitality, siphoning them into Ell to push him back into consciousness. As he saw where Ell pointed he saw the crib nest, knocked over and emptied of its contents.
Helping ell to Stand, he pushed the other man up and hobbled with him down the hall. "Where?" he mentally asked.
"That way…"
Fr. Atomique, with Elliot's arm around his shoulders, stumbled along down the stairs. They emerged into the courtyard, where they saw cracks snaking across the masonry. Underfoot the earth seemed to heave and groan, unsteadying them. A sulfurous stench filled the air, and they wheezed as it tinged their nostrils. What in the hell was causing it?
"Jeannie!" Elliot cried, as he slowly came out of his stupor, and pointed towards the sky. Overhead the deflection barrier rippled and swirled with its energies, and Fr. Atomique wondered what he was referring to, when he pointed to the shape crossing over their view.
"She's there…" Fr. Atomique pointed. "She's okay…"
"Jeannie… get away!" Elliot shouted.
Was it his imagination, or did he see swirling curtains of light curling overhead? A sharp smell like ozone filled their nostrils, and they stood transfixed as Jeannie's shape whirled overhead, and then slid out of sight. Moments later they heard a thump, and then saw the barrier hiss with sparks.
"Jean!" Elliot cried, shaking loose of Fr. Atomique as he rushed out towards the courtyard door that would lead them to the other wall.
"Wait…" Fr. Atomique shouted.
Something flooded across them both at that moment, blinding them, as the world grew dark. The last thing they saw was the barrier give way, and a blinding red flash that rendered everything senseless. The next thing that Fr. Atomique felt was his face against pavement, and the earth heaving up and down.
Voices and silver suited figures swam before his eyes, and he moaned as one leaned over him. "He went pretty hard…"
"His blood's a good type. Rare. Keep him alive…" came the feminine voice, eerily human.
"Are this way… take them and put them with the others. There are only a few left… and we'll have them all…"
"Jeannie!" Christine cried when she saw the shape sailing overhead. She rushed out of where she had been searching, and saw nothing. The courtyard was empty. The ground under her black boots rumbled, and she leapt from here to there to steady herself.
A loud roar sounded, and she turned in the direction of the cottage. Snarling and spitting, with the sounds of thumping and breaking objects. "Tyler!" she muttered, running toward the source. As she approached, she sensed life energies, clustering close. Just before her landed a scaly face with two burning eyes, and fangs.
Her fingers seized its throat, and her eyes flared red. Life force leeched from the mutt to her body, and she drank its energies. It crumpled, lifeless to the pavement. Seconds later she spun around, and slashed a second with her claws. Rocks flew outward as the cottage wall exploded, and another lizard body went flying.
Tyler stood framed in the jagged brick opening, his eyes flaring like twin green lights. Quicksilver melted as bones and muscles reformed into a shaggy gold and black lion. One powerful leap sent him flying out of the cottage, and another sent him pouncing on the figure he had just thrown through the wall.
"You stay AWAY from my wife, you son of a bitch!" he roared. Christine saw him tearing into something, but it hardly looked scaly.
Mona screamed, from within. There came the sounds of human voices, and Tyler looked up from what he was doing. Christine threw the lizard aside, and their eyes met in mutual confusion. Bright sparks of electricity flared, and a silver suited figure went flying out of the window on the other corner.
Two leaps carried him inside, where Mona was standing over a figure in silver, which was writhing and groaning in the charge of her electricity.
"Good god," Tyler muttered as the figure collapsed, and Mona stood, anger in her eyes as she stood between the fallen figure and the crib where the two kittens yowled.
"Uninvited guests," Christine commented, suddenly grabbing the shoulder of another silver suited figure that ducked out from behind a chair. Tyler seized the other that passed by the jagged opening, hauling him into the room and lifting him off his feet.
"Who ARE YOU!" Tyler snarled, holding the figure up. Christine held the other before her, and felt silver foil, which was padded. Dragging it into sight she saw a hooded visor, red screened, and smelled the fear of the creature inside.
"They tried to take our children!" Mona screamed hysterically. "I won't LET them!"
"You miserable pieces of shit, you'll me WHO you are, and WHERE the fuck you came from, or I'll tear your fuckin throat out!" Tyler roared, holding the trembling silver suited figure over his head and swinging it around.
"I've got an easier way," Christine said as she held tightly to the other, who was about the height and seize of a human male. There was no answer, but she grabbed the visor mask, and ripped it off. The human face inside blinked at her, uncomprehending but full of fear.
"Son of a bitch, they're people!" Tyler roared, ripping the helmet off the other. Another man, with close shaved hair, and eyes that were uncommonly bright yellow. The skin was smooth, and the mouth opened and closed as the man made whimpering noises.
"Who are you," Christine asked. "You'd better not be who I thought you were… because you've got a hell of a lot of explaining to do…"
"They aren't the only ones," someone's voice sounded.
"Do you know something about this?" Tyler asked. "If so you'd better tell now or your fiend gets his eyes eaten out!"
"Let them go. They mean no harm… you don't have to hurt them… this could all be avoided…"
"You mother fucker, you're gonna have a lot to answer for…" Tyler hissed. As he threw down his captive and hurled himself at the newcomer, he felt something bat him aside with contemptuous ease.
Mona hurled electricity towards her, but gasped as the silver suited figure staggered and pressed something into her neck. A sharp prick sent her reeling into sleep in seconds. She collapsed next to Tyler. Christine didn't miss a beat as she threw the silver suited figure towards the third that had appeared.
"You foolish child, you have no idea what you're dealing with," laughed the third silver suited figure. Christine leapt up; webbing spewing from her lips as it coated the figure. In two steps she had pressed it to the ground. However the figure pushed up and levered her off, sending her flying into the side of the wall. Bricks gave way, and Christine's invulnerably stopped her back from snapping in two. Light reflected off the figure's red visor, as it advanced on her. Dizzily Christine rolled over, and leapt to her feet. She launched herself quickly, knocking into the figure and pressing it flat again.
Energies surged as she sought to drain off the extra life force. "You stop all this or I'll drain you dry…" she threatened.
"You stupid little girl," laughed the figure. Christine tore off the helmet, and snarled as she saw the face beneath.
"I'll kill you, if you…" Christine got out, but the figure head-butted her, and kneed Christine in the pit of her stomach. Snarling, Christine fell, and felt a kick knock her over. She swept out with her claws; snarling and tearing as the figure fought back with all the ferocity that she didn't know it possessed.
Claws seized her, and picked her up. Christine kicked and fought as the reptilian creature, half woman, and half saurian held her over its head. With a heave it swung her around by her ankle, and hurled her upward. Tiles smashed as Christine crashed throughout the roof, and arced up and away from the complex. Her last thought was how much THIS was gonna hurt, and where the hell was Gene when she needed him.
Paul was sure that Bruce and Eric had sent a message, but something seemed to be etching at the edge of his psi probes. He could sense nobody at times, and more traces at others. Somehow something seemed to be throwing his psi probes off and scrambling them far more than usual.
"Gene something's not right...My psi is somehow scrambled."
"What?" Gene asked. Both were flying out over the city, going towards Bruce and Eric's place
"Are you sure you just aren't getting enough sleep?"
"Nothing seems to make sense....sort of like a static radio," Paul glared at Gene. "Sleep has nothing to do with it...something is WRONG"
"Good god..." Gene mumbled. He depressed his choker button.
"Gene to Bruce... Eric... you guys at home?"
Crackling came, and Bruce's voice echoed. "What the hell are you asking for?"
"What do you want already?"
"That's odd," Paul said his face creased with worry." The transmission should be clearer than that, for how close we are."
"Paul, what's going on...?" Bruce's voice asked.
Then suddenly the link went dead.
"DAMMIT!!! Something is definitely wrong!!!" Paul yelled, bobbling slightly on his flight path, causing Gene to grab his arm to steady him.
Gene cursed, "Paul, what the hell... If this is one of your..."
"It's not Gene, I can't sense anyone from the hotel, and we're too close for me NOT to!" Paul yelled, shaking Genes grip as he straightened his path "We need to go back, something's wrong at the compound!"
"Good god," Gene mumbled. "Christine..."
"No, it's not Christine Gene; I think... I think its RAY."
He heard a garbled transmission coming over his radio, "Gene... Paul... something's attacking... I think... Gene, Paul, you've got to help! Something's wrong... the mutants are... they..."
"Christine!" yelled Gene as the link went dead and they heard loud rumbling.
"Gene try Bruce and Eric again!! We need to turn back!!! The kids, TRYN!!"
"Bruce, Eric, you reading me?" Gene shouted. there came no answer.
Something exploded nearby, and Gene gasped. "Shit, look at that... it's coming from the compound... Jesus... we've been had..."
"Oh God Tammi......"Paul sobbed "Please be all right."
"Shit," Gene mumbled. Suddenly something slammed into him full force, and he gritted as it passed over. A huge wave of force that rammed into him, almost knocking him from the sky. It was like a ripple in a pond, and he realized that it felt as if he'd been stung with a microwave. Paul's scanning in that second sensed its nature. Flickers of silver suited people in his mind's eye suggested it must be some sort of an energy stun weapon the scientists were using against Gene from a distance. Paul grabbed Gene, steadying him as Gene shook his head, trying to clear it. Electricity crackled over Gene, and then faded.
"Holy fucking crap," Gene mumbled, his brain feeling like it was tingling.
"Are you ok?" Paul asked in concern.
"Yes... but it felt like... it felt like... something scrambled my brain, and I was bombarded with illusions... and my powers... I couldn't focus to fly..."
"Look!" he pointed towards the distance, and they saw explosions rising from where Gene's home would be.
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Copyright MediaMiner 2000-2015 - [ disclaimer / privacy / contact ] | she let spill down inside and then turned another valve.
"Distillation… cracking you called it," said Christine.
"Nope, this is just a fractional collector…"
"Methane, light straight run, and other stuff," Christine nodded, looking at the fractionater side draws that were labeled in her own handwriting, clearer to understand than her friend's. "Our own gasoline."
"Not yet, that's just naphtha," Tamara said as Christine opened a valve midway along the column and a liquid gurgled down into another collection flask. Tamara climbed down and crossed over to clamp the flask off, and carry it with Christine's help to a large tank, perhaps the size of a 50-gallon aquarium. Large combs were set at intervals in a tank of sand and fine granular powder.
"So, let me get this straight, you're using sand to purify naphtha and gasoline?"
"I'll need your help here… I know you can generate heat. Gene's not here so…"
"I'll give it a shot… but how can you be making gasoline at a time like this? Unless you're making a getaway car. Or more fuel for the generator…"
"That… and a reserve supply…"
"Maybe some explosives would be more useful," Christine said as she concentrated, and placed her hands near the heat source, which ignited from the solar battery. The thermal cracker bed began to operate, and both women retired to a safe distance.
"This way," Tamara said as she led the way to the other part of her laboratory, considerably smaller, but no less safe. She carefully removed some cotton wool she'd soaked in a clear solution.
"TNT. That's more like it," said Christine, glancing in appreciation. "Gene will get a bang out of this, pardon the pun. But if there's gonna be earthquakes, I suggest you hide it from Ray… the bitch queen of the north…"
"Undoubtedly,' Tamara nodded. "God, I wish the radios were working…"
"Figures. Gene and Paul are out there, and they tell me to stick here. What am I supposed to do? At least you're doing something useful…"
"You are. You're my lab assistant," Tamara joked.
"Say that again and I'll see how well this works," Christine joked as she indicated the TNT.
"Carefully, anything will set it off…"
"You told me this stuff was invented by Nobel. Figures. Some guy starts out with something he THINKS is useful and he gets a bad rap for making one of the most explosive compounds," Christine rolled her eyes. "But it's good stuff to have. Like gasoline…"
"I hate to lose this…" Tamara muttered. "We have to put this stuff somewhere safe…"
"Earthquake or no earthquake…" Christine nodded. "You don't buy it do you?"
"No, I don't."
"Otherwise you'd be someplace else rather than playing mad scientist," said Christine. "So, how long do you think we have till our bitch queen makes a move? Trying to get us to leave?"
"Probably another 15 minutes…" said Tamara, glancing at her watch. Somewhere close by, Christine heard the noise. She felt the shifting in the earth, and turned to Tamara, who was writing the latest findings in her notebook. Both women exchanged glances, and Tamara froze.
"Too convenient," Christine muttered.
"I have to move the gasoline, and shut it down…" Tamara panicked.
"You let me do that… you get that TNT out of here, and someplace safer," Christine nodded. Tamara agreed, and both women bustled about trying to safety proof the chemicals. Any sudden jarring could set the place on fire. It took precious time, but they finally battened it down, and stopped the reactions so they could transfer all the compounds into the drums.
Christine wiped her forehead off, and Tamara did as well. "Why don't we take five. You're burning up. You need to get some water…"
"Not you, Paul's worse enough…"
"She's right, you need to take it easy," said Paul as he strode in, and saw Christine taking off her smock and tossing it over a chair. Tamara strode after her, as she carried a flask in her hand, and saw Paul's look of frustration.
"What are you doing… I thought you said you'd keep her out of trouble," Paul scolded, tapping his foot and trying to look serious. "Tammi, you put her to work again…"
"I'm neutral… save it for your foreplay star boy," Christine chuckled. She wandered within inches of Paul, whose nostrils flared and eyes widened. Suddenly it had grown very hot in the lab, and he felt his pants getting very tight.
"Now don't start with me," Paul said as he willed his body to resist the temptation. It was harmless, and Tamara chuckled despite herself as she set the flask down, and saw Paul flustered at her friend exiting the lab.
"Go find another lab rat," Tamara called as she tossed a piece of dry ice towards Christine, who avoided it with a laugh. Steaming CO2 misted as the ice skittered across the floor and vanished harmlessly under a lab chair.
"Tammi…" Paul said, steadying his pulse at the smell bathing his nostrils. He was a married man, a married man…
"Listen to your hubby. I'm gonna go do some workout… you sure you can handle it without me?" Christine winked.
"I can," Tamara laughed. Paul mumbled something under his breath as Christine wandered out with a grin on her face that Tamara returned.
"Whoops, 'scuse me Padre," came Christine's voice as they heard a thump in the hall.
"Hey, I didn't see you…" came the priest's answer.
"Your brother's in so much trouble," Paul bit his lip, trying not to laugh as he sensed Fr. Atomique's thoughts not far by.
"You didn't come here to tell me about my brother's torture at the hands of my friend, did you?" Tamara asked. She moved to grab another flask, but felt it tugged out of her hands by a beam of purple light wrapping around it.
"No… I've come to rescue you from slaving over a hot Bunsen burner," Paul teased. Tamara shook her head as he directed the flask to set it down, and walked over to her. She looked cute in that labcoat, he thought, but the noxious smells didn't make him feel too good considering her situation.
"I know what you're thinking," she said as she lifted a finger to his lips. "And I'm well aware. I'm not working with any mutagens or teratogens."
"Still..."
"It's no worse than Ray walking on volcanoes," Tamara shrugged.
"That's not the same…" Paul sighed. Tamara turned and she felt him walk over and hug her from behind, slowly fiddling at the buttons of her lab coat.
"No, it isn't… is it," Tamara muttered, realizing Paul wasn't going to leave her alone anytime soon. Not with those pheromones at work. She'd have to thank Christine for this interesting intrusion.
Fr. Atomique muttered as he crossed himself, and walked into the kitchen, grabbing some bottled water. He saw Christine as she sat there, fiddling with the coffee machine. "You are so dead," he shook his head.
"Hey, I wasn't the one watching where I wasn't going," she shrugged. A purple light surged over her, and she felt the brush of strange images. Images of Gene, hot and sweaty. In a shower or hot tub, slowly lathering soap over his skin. Going lower and lower until… She turned quickly, and he shrugged, laughing as he walked away. "Flirt," she threw at him as he wandered off, and he shrugged.
"They're YOUR desires of the moment, not mine. Just showing you what you're thinking of, though you don't wanna admit it," he said with a knowing look. "Call it a confessional… since you were thinking about it…"
"Go say some Hail Mary's… or better yet, your sister's got some company from your bro in law. Better make sure she's behaving herself," Christine called.
"They're already married, why should I care?" he laughed, and walked out, with his water bottle. As he passed by, he saw Gene wandering toward him. He grinned, hoping that she'd get the mental hint and do something already!
Christine watched as Gene walked into the kitchen. He'd just come from a sparring session with Paul. She chuckled at the sight of him in his alternate form with a workout towel around his neck. Hanging a towel around one's neck seemed like such a human thing to do, so normal, and yet the one in front of her definitely didn't fit into the human category at the moment. She smiled as he walked past her eying her carefully. Whether he was keeping an eye on her because he was still wary of her or if he was just sneaking a peek was the question. She figured that because he rarely saw her in her alternate form unless she was fighting him, he was just taking a moment to look her over. Christine finished stirring the sugar into her coffee and watched him as he grabbed a bottle of water. He drank down most of the water greedily before turning towards her.
"I've been meaning to talk to you." He said carefully.
"Really?" Christine answered taking a sip of coffee and then setting the mug down. "What about?" She made it sound as if she was disinterested. She knew where this conversation was leading. She hadn't missed the way Gene had been checking her out lately. And while she couldn't read his thoughts or emotions like Paul or Elliot, she could pick up hints of them by smell. She hadn't missed the subtle trace of arousal every now and then when she was around him.
He wanted her, that much she knew. The feeling was mutual but she wanted to see how far Gene would go to get her.
Gene set his towel and water bottle down on the table and paced to the middle of the kitchen, obviously trying to gather his thoughts before he spoke. Finally he stopped pacing and crossed his arms. He glanced towards her and then looked away, focusing on the kitchen tiles off to the side. Christine leaned against the counter; curious of just what he was going to say. Whatever it was it seemed like he'd been rehearsing it and was trying to recall just how to say it.
He finally cleared his throat. "There's a few things I need to speak to you about. I'm sorry for being blunt…" he began.
"Sometimes that's the best way. Go on." Christine answered pulling herself up to sit on the counter.
"I'm sure you've noticed lately that it's been rather frustrating for me. Everywhere I look it seems like someone's being lovey-dovey or getting laid. Except me, and before you say it the friggin' priest doesn't count."
Christine chuckled. "Well…what about the other women?"
Gene gave her a puzzled look. "Who? Shannon and Simone?" he asked.
"And Raina," she added.
Gene scowled. "Shannon's gone and Simone ran off with Peter. I STILL don't understand that one…And Raina? She and I have a past, no doubt about that. But it seems like that's it. It's almost like I'm not good enough for her, like I never was. And I'm sure you've noticed her high and mighty attitude towards everyone. ESPECIALLY me." Gene sighed. "Then there's you. You seem to deliberately enjoy torturing me with that damn power of yours. SO my question to you is are you interested or not? I'm tired of the damn games. In case you haven't noticed you're the only available female around here and I'm MORE than interested. Are you?"
Gene turned to face Christine and saw the she was smiling. He inwardly groaned. She wasn't even taking him seriously.
"Well… I might just be interested in something…" Christine said teasingly, examining her nails instead of looking at him.
"But I wonder…what would that something be?" She released the aphrodisiac into the air knowing that it would drive Gene insane when he caught scent of it.
Gene growled low in his throat. "You're doing it again. How the hell do you do that anyway?" He asked as soon as he caught the tantalizing scent in the air. Christine shifted, leaning back on the counter a little, giving Gene a view of her legs and up to her thighs as her skirt slid up ever so slightly.
"Why don't you come a little closer and find out for yourself?" She asked, her voice low and seductive. She made eye contact with him, mesmerizing him.
Gene began to move towards her without any conscious effort on his part and realized it was another one of her powers. He broke eye contact, opting to check out what she had to offer instead. As he continued towards her he could feel his groin tightening almost painfully and wondered for a moment whether she, the aphrodisiac in the air or his overall lack of sex, was making him this aroused.
"All three." He concluded as he hurried towards her, figuring they would need all night for him to get this out of his system. And the faster he got there the more time they had.
As Gene broke eye contact and started moving closer, Christine felt her pulse quicken. She hadn't realized how much HIS presence affected her till now. The distance between them wasn't really all that much but to her it seemed to stretch for miles. The sexual tension in the air was so thick you could cut it with a knife. Gene finally stood in front of her and from her seat on the counter they were almost eye to eye. Christine could almost feel the way his eyes wandered down her body appreciatively. It was beginning to feel like a contest of who could keep their hands off each other the longest, one she was about to end. Christine reached up and drew his face down to hers and their lips crushed together desperately. Gene's tongue darted into her mouth, ravishing it and she felt her pulse seem to double when he pulled her against him, so close that her legs had nowhere to go but around his waist.
Gene ran his tongue down her neck and back up to her earlobe, flicking it over her earring and then nipping lightly.
"Feeling better?" Christine asked, breathing heavily and massaging the back of his neck.
"Much. Even more when these clothes are gone." He growled into her ear, sending shivers of need down her spine. She arched back as he trailed his tongue down into her corset where her cleavage was exposed.
Vaguely, through the haze of passion she heard footsteps and started to move back when Gene's arms wrapped around her tighter. She let out a moan as he ground himself against her pressing her against the counter.
"Oh Jesus!" A voice said from behind them. "I always knew you two would kill each other or fuck but right here on the kitchen counter?!"
Christine and Gene both jumped in surprise and turned, seeing Paul standing there looking amused. Gene let out a frustrated growl and Paul chuckled.
"Looks like you could use a cold shower, Gene." Paul teased as Gene and Christine got up and tried to put themselves back together.
"What I NEED is to get some but people like YOU seem to have a talent of walking in at the wrong time." Gene muttered. Christine moved closer to Gene and leaned up, kissing his neck and trying to defuse the situation.
"You still can get some. Let's just go somewhere a little more private." She suggested nipping his ear, like he'd done to her minutes before. Gene nodded, meeting her lips and deepening the kiss.
"Ugh. Get a room." Paul groaned, grabbing a bottle of water and trying to hide his grin.
Gene broke the kiss and glared at Paul. "I'll remember that next time you and Atomic girl are gazing at each other adoringly." Paul laughed. "Get out of here before you two desecrate the kitchen anymore."
Christine grinned and looked up at Gene. "Yeah. Let's go desecrate that bed of yours instead." She said tossing a wink at Paul.
Christine woke up, crackling bone-crunching laughter echoing in her ears. She sat bold upright, shaking off arms that clenched her, and found herself drenched in a puddle of sweat. One moment she was on the island, and the next in this darkness.
"Babe, what's wrong?" Gene mumbled as he reached over and pulled her back down. She felt his energies surging around her, and the memories tumbled back of the last 24 hours. Around her the satin sheets were cold, and her body and the one pressed to hers were wet with perspiration and the juices of wild sex.
"Someone's laughing at me," she muttered. "Who the hell's there?"
"Nobody's here, but you and me, babe," Gene reassured her as he pulled her close. Christine shivered and shook her head free of the laughter.
"I dunno what the hell is going on… if Paul's playing games…"
"He wouldn't dare," said Gene. "What was it you saw, and was it one of those dreams?"
"Memories maybe, nothing," Christine muttered, hugging herself because her body had been dragged through freezing hell. Gene sensed her body had dropped five degrees in temperature, and she felt bone weary and intensely tired. Sex shouldn't have this effect, she shivered.
"Let me warm you up," Gene said and drew her back into his arms, feeding warmth of his body into hers, knowing her vampire nature would allow her to metabolize it. "You can have it… you need it more than I do…"
"Bastard… it felt like he was trying to get to me…" Christine gritted, her eyes flaring red momentarily. It was then she realized she was in her human form, and it frightened her. Few things did, but this was the ticket.
"Shannon had dreams…" Gene trailed off. "Don't kick my ass for mentioning it, but when I'd have sex with my other women; the same sort of thing happened… they saw their selves in that other world. And if what I'm seeing is true… you're just like that… you WERE there, in that other world, weren't you?"
"What if I were?" Christine asked, suspicion rearing an ugly head. Yet she had felt Gene's energy surging through her during their sex, and sensed no taint of corrupted darkness. But how was her energy drained?
"You're seeing if I'm on the level, aren't you?" Gene asked, his mind filling in the blanks. "You and Paul, and your buddy Atomic Girl… it's all a test. Why else was Tamara jerking me around?"
"What would we be trying to prove?"
"That there's a mole among us," Gene said as he sat up, and Christine saw him touch a finger to the lantern at the side of the bed, and the light flared on. "I don't blame you. I guess the joke's on me…"
"It could be me," Christine said.
"It could be, but what would that serve? Considering how you've been jerking me around, it would make sense," Gene said, looking not at all angry. "It's not Tamara, because her actions were just pure PMSing because I wasn't taking her seriously. She's like Paul; she's bitchy when she's ignored. And you, you were just yanking my chain seeing how long I'd take to get you in bed. But you and Paul, and that padre knew that something was rotten, and that's why they sent you…"
"Yes," Christine said. She had to risk it. Everything she'd experienced till now with Gene only served to confirm that he wasn't the turncoat. And she was glad, very glad.
"Who is it, babe?" gene asked.
"I don't know," she confessed. "I've got some nasty suspicions, but there's little way of proving it…"
"Let me know, everyone's depending on me," Gene said. "My kids… who…"
"It could even have been someone who had been here and left…"
"Peter or Ace, or Simone or Shannon? Or Shandi?" Gene growled.
"Dammit I can't help if I don't know…" Gene trailed off, frustrated.
"Maybe we'd better work together to find out for sure," Christine said. It was on the tip of her tongue, wanting to confess her suspicions. Yet she knew that Gene might not believe it. So she concocted what was an elaborate lie, to protect him from the truth. He'd find out sooner or later, and then he'd need everything from preventing him from destroying someone he cared for greatly in the process of protecting everyone else.
"Are you not telling me because…"
"I don't know for sure Gene… and neither do Paul or anyone else…" she said angrily. "We've got to find a way to flush whoever it is out. And that's Paul's plan. So far, all we've seen is that you and I go great between the sheets, Tamara's pissed because you underestimate her, and you and Paul are at each other's throats like usual…"
"So, you're saying we just go on, and keep our eyes peeled, | 4,519 |
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Military Coworking Network
How to pursue a career in the tech industry: Expert top tips
Written by Kirsty Cameron
'It's funny because I don't think of myself as being in tech. My role and skill set is very much about communication, building relationships, making sense of things and making things happen but looking back I realise I have been involved in a digital role in some shape or form for nearly 20 years!
Being a military spouse I have found that I have had to be creative in terms of ensuring career progression and development (haven't we all?!) and my journey has spanned a number of roles and industries. I'm an agile practitioner and have a background in product, project and programme management. The term agile refers to 'an iterative approach (to project management and software development) that helps teams deliver value to their customers faster. My first job was (literally) stuffing envelopes, then an admin assistant in a design agency in London and that was I guess, my first springboard into the creative services industry and ultimately into the digital/tech route. I worked hard, I watched, I tried, I learnt, I failed (often) but I kept going. I was fortunate enough to have generous bosses and mentors along the way and learnt to always look for how I could add value at every opportunity. But how does this relate to you and how to get into a career in tech? I'd say upfront I am no expert and there are SO many options and routes into tech careers. Also I'd say that there are technical roles vs those roles that require a level of digital expertise (ever on the increase in the world we live in). Recognising how we use digital and technology feels increasingly important and in reality we're all going to need to upskill ourselves to keep pace with the world as the way of work changes. If you are thinking about getting into a digital or tech role consider the following:
Do you want to work in a specifically 'technical' or 'digital' role e.g. a developer, a systems engineer, a User Experience designer? If you're not in one of these roles already then you'll need to upskill.
Or do you want to take the skills and competencies that you already have and add a layer of digital skills over this? E.g. I am a project manager by training so I can project manage a range of things but have chosen to focus and thus build my skills in the digital sphere. Not all roles are pure 'tech' — so much of my role is about building relationships, planning and delivering.
Start where you are: a good place to start is your existing organisation — are there people who are in digital or tech roles who you could approach to ask about their responsibilities and skills? Take it a step further and ask if you could be involved in a project they're working on. Volunteer yourself for a role, ask for mentoring and show a willingness to learn.
Speak to friends, family and colleagues: ask them if they're in digital or tech roles, talk to them about how they got into their role, how they keep up to date with the rate and change of digital. Ask them if they're hiring.Think about the kind of roles that you've heard about that appeal to you. Do research (loads of it) — the more you read the more you know, the more you can spot trends and opportunities too. List out your passions — by identifying what you feel you are good at, the skills and passions which bring you energy you can start to<|fim_middle|>/jobs/ https://www.hiretechladies.com/partners/ https://remoteok.io/ https://jobs.theguardian.com/jobs/charities/
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© 2020 by Military Coworking Network | identify roles, and organisations, which might suit you. Explore support for spouses — increasingly there are funded opportunities within schemes which support increasing access for women in tech which are aimed at military spouses. Keep a look out for these as they are often linked to organisations who are very understanding of the military spouse lifestyle so moving on in a few years, or transferring to a different office is possible. Search for people on social media (eg. LinkedIn or Twitter) who might be doing these roles/are leaders in their field. Follow their social feeds — in addition to posting useful content about their area of specialism they often post links to courses/webinars/events that are useful networking opportunities as well as job ads. Reach out on social media, engage in conversation (but remember to always consider adding value and give back generously — if someone has helped you out, when someone reaches out to you, see if you can help them out) Curate your own research and reading lists — there is so much information out there — find and follow/join networks that are relevant to your interests. For example, I follow various agile practitioners on social media (LinkedIn and Twitter work for me), I follow areas of interest on the likes of Medium and numerous other online resources. Create job alerts for the kind of jobs you think you're interested in — this way you can see what is out there but also the skills required which will help you in building your own skills for the role that you want. Finding a mentor and a peer support group is a real enabler to securing a role you want. Remain open, flexible and curious. You'll have to keep learning — the pace of change is fast and change is constant. Believe in yourself — you've got this! At DOT PROJECT our focus is on tech for good in the social, public and education sector so if you're looking in this sector for roles then have a look at the following: https://www.escapethecity.org/ https://charitydigitaljobs.org/jobs/ https://www.techforgood.global | 411 |
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Public Service News and Digital Media
Posted by Annika Sehl Research Fellow, The Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism Alessio Cornia Research Fellow, The Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism on March 23, 2016
In this report, we examine how public service media in six European countries (Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the United Kingdom) are delivering news in an increasingly digital media environment. The analysis is based on interviews conducted between December 2015 and February 2016, primarily with senior managers and editors as well as on survey data from the Reuters Institute Digital News Report.
We show the following:
Public service media organisations have high reach for news offline (via television and radio) in all six countries, but only in Finland and the United Kingdom do they have high reach for news online.
In all countries but Finland and the United Kingdom, significantly more people get news online from social media than from public service media.
Our interviewees highlight three particularly important issues facing public service news provision online today, namely:
how to change organisations developed around analogue broadcasting media to effectively deliver public service news in an increasingly digital media environment;
how to use mobile platforms more effectively as smartphones become more and more central to how people access news;
how to use social media more effectively as more and more news use is driven by referrals and in some cases consumed off-site on platforms like Facebook.
Public service media organisations in all six countries have faced, and continue to face, serious challenges to their ability to effectively deliver public service news online. These include internal challenges around legacy organisations' ability to adapt to a rapidly changing media environment and the constant evolution of new digital technologies, but also external economic and/or political challenges.
Across the three areas of organisational change, mobile delivery, and use of social media platforms, the British BBC and the Finnish Yle are generally seen as being ahead of most other public service media organisations. (Though they too are still heavily invested in their traditional broadcasting operations and need to continue to change to keep pace with the environment.)
We identify four external conditions and two internal conditions that these two relatively high-performing organisations have in common. The four external conditions are: (1) they operate in technologically advanced media markets; (2) they are well-funded compared to many other public service media organisations; (3) they are integrated and centrally organised public service media organisations working across all platforms; (4) they have a degree of insulation from direct political influence and greater certainty through multi-year agreements on public service remit, funding, etc. The two internal conditions are a pro-digital culture where new media are seen as opportunities rather than as threats and senior editorial leaders who have clearly and publicly underlined the need to continually change the organisation to adapt to a changing media environment.
The need for public service news provision to evolve will only increase as our media environments continue to change and digital media become more and more important. Addressing the external conditions for the evolution of public service media is a matter for public discussion and political decision-making. Developing the internal conditions, however, is the responsibility of public service media themselves, and a precondition for their continued relevance in a rapidly changing media environment.
This report is the first of a series of annual reports that will focus specifically on how European public service media are adapting to the rise of digital media, a series of reports that will over time cover more countries and more issues than those discussed here.
All public service media in Europe aim to produce high-quality content, make it available across widely used devices and platforms, and reach all audiences. How they do it, however, varies – especially when it comes to digital media. In this report, we focus on how public service media in six European countries are dealing with three issues concerning public service news provision today:
how to use mobile platforms more effectively as smartphones become more and more central to how people access news; and
The countries we cover in the report are Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the United Kingdom. Together, they represent a range of different European media systems, levels of technological development, and public service media traditions. 1
The focus of the report is on the intersection between technological change and public service news provision. It is important to underline that public service media confront these challenges and opportunities while also facing economic and political challenges in some countries. The move towards an ever-more digital media environment has been accompanied by debates around the role and remit of public service media as well as discussions of how public service is best delivered today. 2
Economically, funding for public service media has decreased in recent years in several countries, including France, Italy, and the United Kingdom, in part due to wider austerity measures and in part due to reductions in funding directed specifically at public service media. These pressures can be illustrated by recent cuts at the BBC in the UK and reduced funding for the Italian RAI and Polskie Radio.
Politically, a range of private media and some political parties are questioning the current scale and scope of public service media and calling for more narrowly defined roles and remits. These pressures include the ongoing legal battle between the German ARD and a range of newspaper publishers over what German public service media are allowed to do online and via apps for smartphones and tablets. 3 Simultaneously, governments in some European countries are putting public service media under more pressure and in some cases drastically reducing public service media's independence from the state (EBU 2013; Arriaza Ibarra et al. 2015: 2). In January 2016, for example, the Polish president Andrzej Duda signed into law a bill handing the government control of public service media in Poland. Under the new law, senior figures in both Telewizja Polska (TVP) and Polskie Radio (PR) will be appointed and dismissed by the treasury minister rather than by the National Broadcasting Council, as was previously the case. 4
The report is based on interviews conducted between December 2015 and February 2016 with 36 people, primarily senior managers and editors at public service media organisations, as well as people with expert knowledge about the media in each country (see list of interviewees in the appendix). The interviews largely focused on how the respective public service media organisations are adapting to the rise of digital media, but also included discussions of wider economic and political challenges confronting public service media in the countries covered.
Our primary focus is on how public service media organisations in the six countries handle the challenges and opportunities represented by the rapid rise of digital media. We show that public service media organisations are adapting to the new environment at different speeds, and that some are falling behind because they are changing more slowly than the environment in which they operate and the public that they serve. Across the six countries covered, the British BBC and the Finnish Yle both reach large audiences with their online news and both have continually carried out substantial organisational reforms to adapt to an environment that continues to change quickly. The remaining public service media organisations have more limited reach with their online news and their organisations continue to be largely structured around traditional broadcast platforms.
The differences in performance and pace of change can be attributed in part to external economic (levels of funding) and political (remit of digital public service provision) factors. But it is clear that internal organisational barriers also constrain the ability of some public service media organisations to seize opportunities and tackle challenges online (EBU 2014; Malinowski 2014). In contrast to private media adapting to technological change, public service media generally face fewer economic challenges (as the need to develop new revenue models is less urgent), more political challenges (as they are bound by regulation and existing audiences' expectations), and a somewhat different set of organisational challenges (as a more secure funding situation both enables experimentation and reduces the immediate need to adapt).
Despite a preference for the term 'public service media' over the more traditional 'public service broadcasters', and a frequent insistence on their ambition to deliver public service across all platforms, even leading public service media organisations widely seen as digital innovators are still heavily invested in and shaped by their broadcasting legacy. In January 2016, James Harding, the BBC's Director of News and Current Affairs, said that BBC News still invests more than 50% of its budget in linear television, about 40% in radio, and 7% in online media. (By comparison, in 2015, 41% of UK respondents in the Reuters Institute Digital News Report named television their main source of news, 10% radio, and 38% online media (Newman et al. 2015)). As Harding said: 'We can't afford to do everything. [This is] about setting our priorities. The choices we make now will determine the future.' 5
The first challenge is trying to provide news for everyone, including hard-to-reach younger people. Across the countries covered here, public service media have high reach for offline news, very different reach online, and vary widely in their ability to reach especially younger people, with the BBC reaching about 68% of 18–24 year olds with news across offline and<|fim_middle|> different approaches, both in terms of how news production is organised, and of how innovation processes are managed and supported.
Organising Public Service News Provision
Some organisations have integrated newsrooms working across all channels and platforms, others still have newsrooms organised around distinctions between offline platforms like radio and television and digital platforms including website, mobile apps, and social media channels. In Finland and the UK, public service newsrooms have been integrated for years.
Yle in Finland integrated its newsroom in 2007 and implemented further reforms a year and a half ago, when it was decided that every journalist should work for all media platforms (some are still designated as radio or television specialists). This more recent reform was widely discussed in the organisation before it was implemented, and explicitly framed as part of preparations for a digital future: 'We felt like the internet is going to be everywhere and it is everybody's job to be able to understand the digital logic and to do stuff for the digital platforms, whether it's desktop or laptop or mobile phone or watch', says Mika Rahkonen, Head of Development in Yle News and Current Affairs. 10
Journalists at Yle are now asked to think more about the angle and presentation of each story and only then to decide on the appropriate media or platform. Rahkonen explains:
If it's a very visual story with lots of video, we can put it on TV, we can have a long video on the internet. And if it's a story with lots of numbers, we can do a data visualisation and stuff like that. It used to be like slot first. Now it's story first. 11
Atte Jääskeläinen, Director of News and Current Affairs, explains that the organisational structure of Yle News and Current Affairs is meant to ensure that there is one content manager who has the power to make decisions with respect to the type of media that should be privileged in cases where different media disagree over how to cover a story and how to publish it. Jääskeläinen says such conflicts were quite common initially, but have decreased over time as editors and journalists 'have learned the basic rules'. 12
While Yle's current news strategy prioritises online distribution first, and in general does not hold back news for traditional broadcasting bulletins, the interviewees were already talking about transitioning to mobile-first as the next logical step (more on this below).
The BBC introduced an integrated newsroom in 2008, moving from a separation between broadcast bulletins, the 24-hour news channel, BBC World, and online to one multimedia newsroom that emphasised an integrated leadership, co-location, and sharing of information. Today, journalists working there are trained to be multi-media providers, and content from various channels like BBC News Channel, Radio 4 and so on is used across the whole news division and repurposed for other platforms. Michael Hedley, Head of Strategy, News at the BBC, explains:
We really serve audiences with the most appropriate form of content for that period. So if a journalist is out in the field preparing a TV bulletin, they may be also at the same time writing a piece for online, or doing a short piece to camera, they may be doing a piece to radio, and then they'll cut and do a piece to TV and so on. 13
In 2013, when BBC News moved into a new, specially designed newsroom in New Broadcasting House, the integration was taken a step further. Global and UK output was brought together, all intake processed through the same content management systems, and content for digital platforms was made first priority for all breaking news. As BBC Director of News James Harding put it then: 'We are all digital journalists now.' 14 And this is not only about a digital-first approach to news, but also about constantly evolving as digital media evolves. According to BBC Executive Editor, Digital, Steve Herrmann, the focus is increasingly on live, social, and mobile news. 15
In other public service media organisations elsewhere in Europe, the situation is quite different. In Germany, there is some cooperation and collaboration between the traditional media and online, though not to the same extent as in Finland or the UK. At ARD Aktuell, there is exchange on the planning level of television programme and online content. But apart from this, television and online journalists work in separate newsrooms since an earlier attempt to introduce an integrated newsroom was judged a failure. (According to one report, the TV journalists felt disturbed by their noisy online colleagues. 16
The traditional structure also leads to television and online working with different content management systems, which requires journalists to learn to work with both media. When it comes to radio, Krogmann says, cooperation is relatively strong. 17 However, these employees are not present in either television or online newsrooms. This is in part because Germany has no nationwide ARD-radio, instead, the nine regional PSBs all have their own radio channels.
At Germany's other national public service media organisation, ZDF, the structure is also relatively traditional, with television and online journalists working in parallel with little integration. However, ZDF has launched a new venture called 'heute express' in 2015, a short news format for online programming (including social media) and TV. These short news programmes are produced by a cross-media team to avoid replication and save resources. Furthermore, ZDF has launched a late night news show heute+, a cross media format, in the same year, replacing the traditional former night edition of the heute news bulletin (see box below).
19 The newsroom is divided into three parts: Desk 1 produces breaking news and publishes them on a newsfeed updated from 6am to midnight called 'live'. The staff working at Desk 1 tend to work only on text-formats and publish immediate news that they call 'hot news'. Desk 2 works on images and video and often on news that requires one or two hours of work before publication. Finally, Desk 3 works on news that is published at the end of the day or the following one and aims to provide more background, depth, and perspective. Most of the journalists at FranceTV Info primarily work at their desk. Only the journalists working for Desk 3 occasionally go into the field to collect information.
News production at France Télévisions is thus still primarily organised around platforms, like at ARD and ZDF, but in contrast to the BBC and Yle. Plans for a more integrated newsroom are mentioned, however, in the context of a planned 24-hour news channel. The new channel is still not definite but is a plan that France Télévisions has had for years, adapted to take into account the rise of digital media. Cathala says:
We are in late and we try to make up for this delay: we already had this plan [for a 24-hour news channel] in the 2000s, but at the time the government prohibited it because they thought there was not room for several all-news channels in France. . . . But we are trying to transform this situation to an advantage because we want to imagine it digital first. 20
At RAI, the PSB in Italy, news production has long been highly decentralised. Each of the main RAI television channels (Raiuno, Raidue, Raitre, and Rainews24) has their own news division, whereas the RAI radio channels' news bulletins have a centralised newsroom. This decentralised structure was replicated when RAI started offering online news, and every television and radio channel (even many individual programmes) opened their own news website and later social media pages. Only in 2013 was Rainews.it made into a common news website drawing on all parts of RAI, with the aim of aggregating content from across the organisation in one place and more effectively competing for audiences' attention online.
However, our interviews suggest that some directors of news operations elsewhere in RAI accepted this decision only reluctantly. From their point of view, they were being asked to give up their own independent websites and contribute support to the joint website, thus draining their resources and undermining their independence. In practice, some management of decentralised newsrooms continue to resist providing the newsroom of Rainews.it with stories, even when they have already broadcast the stories on their own channel or show. Within the organisation, television is still seen as more important than online by many, not only management, but also by journalists who, when asked to work for multimedia projects, consider online journalists to have lower status and a more limited audience than television journalists.
Monica Maggioni, who was appointed President of RAI in August 2015, speaks frankly about some of the issues confronting RAI's online news operation and what she plans to do to tackle them.
If we want to provide an honest description of the RAI situation, we have to describe also a delay, because this is the truth. RAI, but also some other European networks, is facing this delay because, for decades, we have been, by nature, focusing on linear television, and this has taken our best energies, creativity and production ability. When we realised the world was going in another direction, we started to do projects, but these initiatives weren't necessarily well-coordinated, not necessarily going in the right direction, provided that a 'right direction' exists. The change phase started a couple of years ago, when we realised that the development of our 24-hour channel [Rainews24] was an essential passage to move also in the direction of the online news. 21
In December 2015, RAI established a new digital division. Monica Maggioni explains that the new division has been created to overcome the traditional separation between the editorial and the technological parts of the organisation, and will be able to 'talk with all RAI sectors and to ask them for content'. She says it will provide 'a connection point between the endless bunch of RAI contents and the final user'. 22 The Head of the New Division is currently working on restructuring the whole RAI digital offer. The aim for the future is RAI's 'transition from public service broadcaster – as we still are today – to public service media', says Andrea Fabiano, Deputy-Director of Raiuno. 23
Finally, in Poland, public service media are (as in France) organised around legacy broadcast platforms with Telewizja Polska (TVP) built around television and Polskie Radio around radio. One interviewee describes Polish public service media as being at the 'beginning of [a] road' from being public service broadcasters to being public service media – and adds that the transition might take several years. (Internet use and smartphone penetration is also lower in Poland than most other countries covered here.) The situation is described as in some ways similar to that in Italy: every radio and television channel has its own newsroom. However, the news website TVP.info is described as a hub for online news from all television channels and polskieradio.pl for online news from all radio channels and programmes. In terms of news production, television and radio journalists typically do the actual reporting and produce stories for their respective broadcast platform, leaving it to editors back in the newsroom to adopt the content for online publication. At the beginning of 2016, however, TVP.info had started a new project with 'mojos' (mobile journalists) producing audio-visual content exclusively for the website.
Our interviews show a wide variety of different organisational structures and workflows across public service news provision in Europe. In some organisations like Yle and to some extent the BBC, news production is highly integrated and the approach is story-first, rather than format-first. But in most public service media organisations, news production is still structured primarily around legacy broadcast media and online news largely seen as separate, with various degrees of collaboration between broadcast journalists and online journalists when it comes to sharing of content and often limited investments made in digital-first news production (compared to the resources invested in broadcast news).
Innovation and Development
Similar differences are clear in terms of how public service media manage and invest in innovation in news. Some public service media organisations have teams dedicated specifically to developing new approaches and ideas for digital news. Others have a less formalised structure where innovation is based on individual staff members within the newsroom developing new ideas and building support for them. (All the organisations covered have their development and/or innovation teams elsewhere, but not all have such units in the newsroom or with a specific focus on news.)
Again, Yle in Finland and the BBC in the UK stand out for having invested significant resources in building teams tasked with innovation in news production and distribution.
At Yle the web and mobile development team consists of eight staff members who are supported by five to ten additional freelance subcontractors, depending on the situation, according to Aki Kekäläinen, Head of Web and Mobile Development at Yle. (The team also draws on the resources of the broader development department at Yle.) The decision to organise the development team as a separate department is meant to give them freedom from day-to-day work, so as to enable them to '[focus] on what should happen, what we should do so that we are on top of things in the future as well'. 24
In order to generate ideas on a continuous basis, the Yle web and mobile development office has a regular meeting every Tuesday from 10am to 3pm to brainstorm new ideas to respond to the changing media environment. The team of approximately ten people (some on staff, others on subcontracts) is divided into groups of three or four. Aki Kekäläinen describes the meetings:
We focus on a topic. . . . We crunch the numbers and we check the statistics and in some cases we do benchmarking. . . . What's the best already available, the baseline that we should do at least as well as they're doing, and why are they the best example? Or do we need to do some user research? We could go and interview some people or at least think though how we might research the question. Or we can build [a] prototype and try it out. 25
Kekäläinen points out that the work organisation in small groups is an important factor in this context, leading to fruitful discussions where the teams challenge each other and thus further develop ideas.
Similarly, BBC News has had a 'BBC News Lab' to support innovation in news since 2012 (see box below).
In Germany, ARD has a small team of four people working with strategy and innovation development specifically for news, Kai Gniffke, First Editor in Chief of ARD Aktuell, explains. 27 Similarly, at Polskie Radio, a group of about five staff members are tasked, among other things, with observing new developments, going on field trips, and exchanging information and know-how with EBU partners. France Télévisions did not have a development team specifically for news when we did our interviews, but was just about to start one.
At ZDF, there is a development team for new media in general, but not one specifically focused on news. Instead, small decentralised groups work on innovations for news. 28 Elmar Theveßen, Deputy Editor-in-Chief, Head of News, ZDF, describes the ZDF newsroom's approach to innovation as 'learning by doing' on the basis of information they gather, for example through the EBU, field trips to innovative newsrooms, and conversations with commercial broadcasters. 29 The approach at the Italian RAI and Polish PSB is similar. Currently there are no teams in place for regular development specifically focused on news. RAI maintains a small, so-called WebLab in the online newsroom. This group, however, focuses mostly on storytelling in the digital age and less on broader strategic issues, explains Roberto Mastroianni, News Editor and Media Manager at Rainews24. 30
European public service media thus do not only differ in terms of how they organise online news provision, but also in terms of how they have organised innovation around online news. Some have teams or units in place specifically tasked with thinking about ways in which the wider organisation could or should change. In most cases, however, innovation is based on a combination of ad-hoc teams put together from people who have other day-to-day responsibilities in the newsroom and development departments elsewhere in the organisation.
Public Service News Approaches to Mobile News
The rapid move from a desktop web to a mobile web in recent years is one of the central developments in digital media. Desktop use has been broadly stable, while mobile use has grown explosively in just a few years, and already accounts for over half of time spent with digital media in some countries and more than half of all traffic for many news sites. The pace of change differs from country to country, but increasingly, the smartphone looks like the defining device for digital news (Newman et al. 2015). Most of the public service media organisations we cover in this report are aware of this development, but the degree and ways in which they have adapted their digital news provision for mobile differ.
The BBC launched its mobile news app in 2010 to supplement the website the corporation has run since 1997. Both the website and the news app were redesigned in 2015. The website switched to responsive design to ensure it worked across personal computers, tablets, and smartphones, with a cleaner design, faster load times, and a greater emphasis on video. Similarly, the news app was relaunched to include a broader range of content, to integrate more video, and offer more ways for people to discover content by supplementing the edited front page with 'most read' and 'most viewed' sections and the ability to follow topics and stories with a personalisable 'My News' section. 31 Michael Hedley, Head of Strategy, News, at BBC, describes the app mainly as 'an interface to get into BBC news content', with a strong possibility 'to personalise the news'. This is possible by streams, but also by topics and by location. 'It's a faster, more accessible experience', Hedley says. 32
One of the features of the app that BBC News is constantly trying to get right is the balance between general news selected for people on the basis of their expressed preferences and past use. Daniel Wilson, Head of UK Policy at the BBC, underlines that while the new app enables personalisation, it also ensures that all users get the most important news, as well as articles that may be neither general news nor personalised news, but might still surprise and interest people – what he calls 'serendipitous' content.
The idea is that through much more use of data and with [the] audience's consent, we will be able to optimise much better the journeys between the things that people already know they like, and the things that they don't know they like, and the things that they don't know are important. If we can keep bringing together the important, the popular and the serendipitous, then I think we're doing a good job. 33
Looking forward, the BBC has indicated its plans to make 'a transition from rolling news to streaming news' with the announcement of a project called 'BBC Newstream'. 34
Although Yle sees its new app as successful, it is still only 'serving a niche', according to Tuija Aalto (Yle). Atte Jääskeläinen makes the same point:
NewsWatch is a kind of platinum product for heavy news users. . . . The features are very kind of high end, what they have in NewsWatch and for regular news customers they may be a little bit too much if you choose from 140,000 keywords. 36
Yle is now redesigning its responsive news website that was among the first of its kind worldwide when launched in 2012. It is planning to bring the personalisation of the app to the news website itself. In order to prepare journalists for a mobile-first strategy, Mika Rahkonen says that Yle is planning to have big screens in the newsroom showing exactly what is seen on a mobile screen. 37
For ARD in Germany, their mobile strategy is deeply intertwined with the wider political discussion of the role and remit of public service media online, specifically the ongoing court case brought by several newspapers against the ARD after the Tagesschau news app launched in 2010. The newspapers are arguing that the app is too similar to their offerings, distorts the market, and does not represent the kind of 'programme-related content' German public service media are restricted to offering online. It seems clear that the ongoing court case has limited investment in developing the app. However, the ARD are aware of issues around navigation, the presentation of videos, and load times that they would like to address. Kai Gniffke (ARD) describes the main focus of the app as providing an overview of all relevant news of the day, partly enriched with background information and analysis. 38 His colleague Christiane Krogmann (ARD) explains that due to the German requirement that public service offerings online must be programme-related, the ARD cannot offer the app as a stand-alone news product and the content it presents has to be related to existing ARD broadcast output. 39
Germany's ZDF also plans to relaunch both their news website and the news app they have built around their main evening news bulletin heute. The relaunch is scheduled to happen no later than 2018. Amongst the priorities for the relaunch of the website and app, Elmar Theveßen (ZDF) mentions personalisation of content as well a stronger focus on video. 40
In France, the main news website, FranceTV Info of France Télévisions, has had a responsive design since 2011. In addition, France Télévisions introduced a news app the same year. Like the other news apps discussed above, the FranceTV Info app includes an overview of news with background articles, video streams, and notifications for important stories. In addition, a unique feature of the app is an information feed called 'live'. Jean-François Fogel, who works as a consultant for France Télévisions, explains:
The most innovative aspect of FranceTV Info is 'live' . . . The 'live' stream is a way to produce information and to have a permanent conversation with our audience (they ask questions on the live, and our journalists provide answers). . . . It is important to mention also the fact that we publish on our live both the contents we produce and those produced by other news outlets, including those produced by private media. 41
Rainews, the structure in charge of the RAI digital news offer, has likewise developed a news app offering news both on text and video formats. The app also provides on-demand videos, live streaming and push notifications. However, several interviewees say that, so far, RAI's top management have not considered mobile strategies as being as important as traditional media activities. This is in line with previous research which has suggested that RAI has historically not been a particularly innovative public service provider, which in turn has impacted its reach online (Brevini 2013). The RAI President Monica Maggioni underlines that the new digital division is currently working on product personalisation and platform designing to make RAI news to become 'more attractive . . . within the social media and mobile channels'. 42
Poland is the country covered here with the lowest smartphone penetration and the lowest number of people naming mobile devices as their main way of accessing online news. It is also the only country where the public service media do not offer dedicated news apps, but just general apps. However, both their news websites are built with responsive design to facilitate mobile use. One interviewee mentions that Polskie Radio is currently planning a news app which will rely mainly on audio with very little text and pictures. This means that it is likely to be more of an audio than a multimedia app.
As with the organisation of newsroom work and innovation, there are clear differences in terms of how public service media organisations across the countries covered approach mobile news. The BBC and Yle have dedicated mobile news apps that offer general news and personalised content in both text, audio and video formats, and have websites built with responsive design facilitating both desktop and mobile access. The Yle is developing a mobile-first strategy. France Télévisions is moving in the same direction with a dedicated mobile news app and a responsive design website, and is working on personalisation as well. In Germany, both ARD and ZDF have mobile news apps, but they are tied to specific broadcast news programmes and development of mobile offerings is slowed by legal challenges and political pressures. After the gradual centralisation of RAI's online news offerings, Rainews has also developed and launched a mobile app, but our interviews suggest the development is hampered by internal indifference and resistance from some parts of the organisation. In Poland, TVP and PR have responsive design websites and general apps, but no news app for mobile as yet.
Public Service News Approaches to Social Media Distribution
As with organisational change and mobile strategy, public service media across Europe differ in terms of how they approach social media distribution and think about their relations with increasingly important digital intermediaries such as search engines, video-hosting sites, messaging apps, and – when it comes to news perhaps most importantly – social media sites.
Daniel Wilson from the BBC offers two different perspectives on this topic:
The whole industry is struggling between trying to keep their website, their app, their environment as the point of contact for their audiences and maintaining that control versus the challenge of audiences increasingly going to other big international platforms like Facebook, Google, and other social media such as Twitter. I think there are two extremes. You can either say you want to be a platform in your own right, and you don't want to link out to anyone else or disaggregate your content in any way, or you can say it's all publicly funded content, everyone should have access to it everywhere. 43
Most of the public service media organisations covered here try to position themselves between these extremes and combine an emphasis on their own destination websites and mobile apps along with attempts to leverage social media distribution in particular to maximise public service reach.
In no other area is the language of opportunities and risks more appropriate or more frequently invoked than when it comes to the relationship between public service media and third-party platforms like social media.
Challenges and Opportunities Associated with Social Media Distribution
Our interviewees highlight in particular two reasons for investing in social media distribution. One is referrals, the other is off-site distribution.
To Bring Users to their Own Website and Not Lose Traffic
Interviewees in all six countries point out that social media are important drivers of traffic to their websites. Data from comScore support this (see Table 3 on the next page). With some variation, all the organisations covered here get a substantial share of their traffic from Google and Facebook (and a fraction from Twitter). Thus, some interviewees argue that not being active and present on social media platforms would lead to a loss of audience. Atte Jääskeläinen from Yle argues that, especially for mobile users, 'they are not visiting that many different pages or opening that many different applications. So we would lose a big part of our audience if there wasn't social media or we weren't on social media.' 44
Internal audience research from one organisation suggests there is good evidence to support this point of view – while the vast majority of users who go direct to that particular organisation's website and app are returning users, social media referrals account for most new users drawn in, and thus represent a major opportunity to reach beyond an existing loyal audience.
To Reach Young Audience and Light News Users Off-Site
Several interviewees see social media, especially Facebook, as a way of reaching younger users as well as light users who otherwise would not necessarily come to the PSB websites. This is in part about drawing people who do not seek out news of their own volition to public service news sites and news apps through referrals, but also about placing public service news on off-site platforms where people who will not click on the link may still enjoy the content. Instead of only trying to draw people to public service news sites, it is about going to where they already are. Robert Amlung (ZDF) says that the main advantage from the users' point of view is that social media have a whole range of different attractions well beyond news and in addition can aggregate content from many different players. For some users, this will make them more attractive sources of news than public service apps and sites that only contain content from one source, 45 and for some, they stumble upon news, including public service news, while they are on these sites for other purposes (Newman et al. 2015).
Despite the attractive opportunities for increased reach through referrals and off-site use, our interviewees also identify a range of risks they associate with third-party platforms and social media distribution in particular.
The Challenge of Building Relationships With Platforms
The key concern expressed by several interviewees is that social media platforms are not transparent and predictable in terms of their strategies and that public service media have little influence on them. Aki Kekäläinen from Yle illustrates this worry:
If money is the main driver, then commercially driven content could be more interesting for Facebook and if that happens then they just tweak their algorithm a little bit and our audience coming from Facebook drops significantly overnight. So if we don't have any control it's really bad for us. 46
The relationship between public service media and social media is discussed in several interviews, along with strategies to cope with the new dynamics. Tin Radovani, Strategy Analyst for the World Service at the BBC, says:
That sort of relationship is quite difficult to establish, and it's quite difficult to bring value back to us since you are living in somebody else's garden, in somebody's else's platform. So, it's a developing relationship, and we are developing our understanding of how best to work in somebody else's platform. 47
The Challenge to Fulfil the PSB Remit in a Disaggregated Environment
Several interviewees, especially from the BBC, also see potential risks in the tension between the public service obligation to provide information across the full range of relevant issues and the ways in which social media operate in practice. Daniel Wilson argues that this public service remit of the BBC could be harder to fulfil as content becomes more disaggregated – pointing to fears over potential 'filter bubbles' or 'echo chambers': 'Disaggregating all your content effectively stops the BBC playing that public service role I mentioned earlier, linking the popular to the good, the popular to the important and providing variety in what audiences consume from the BBC.' 48
The Challenge of Keeping Users' Aware of Public Service Brands
A further challenge is how to ensure that users who encounter public service content on social media platforms recognise the brand and credit the public service media organisation for the content they use. Eric Scherer (France Télévisions) says:
With these platforms, there is the risk of losing control over your distribution process and, possibly, over the relationship we have with our audience. At the same time, if we don't go there, we risk losing a large part of the audience: young people who don't watch TV. 49
Andrzej Mietkowski, Responsible for New Media at Polskie Radio, express a similar view:
You have to work on your own image, to build your own credibility and to make a distinction for the users that you are the Polish Radio, you are not Mr John Smith. And when you start to use the social media, which is the environment of John Smith, you have to make it with a lot of precautions, and to have in mind that you cannot play on the same level, the same rules, the same games for people. 50
Beyond the opportunities and challenges social media and the like present for public service media, one interviewee expressed a more fundamental worry about national commercial media ultimately being subsumed by the ascendance of social media platforms, leading to a less diverse media environment:
I fear that the commercial publishers will jump into that, and in that sense, we'll lose the kind of last hope of surviving in this environment if they jump into social media giants' boat in which they don't really have a voice and control over the future. So I think that there will be a major change in the environment in that sense. 51
Most public service organisations thus see considerable opportunities in social media distribution, especially around referrals and off-site use. It is clear that all of them get significant proportions of their website traffic specifically from search engines and social media. Some of them also have considerable off-site reach via a range of social media platforms. The analytics company Tubular Labs estimates that BBC News had a social reach of more than 87 million impressions globally across YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, and Vine in January 2016, not far behind its estimated c.100 million global monthly unique website users. 52 But there are also challenges around the risk of relying on third-party platforms for distribution, editorial control in distributed environments, and fears that users will not necessarily appreciate content producers when they encounter their news via third-party platforms.
Despite the reservations they have, public service media are actively developing strategies for making the most of the opportunities offered by social media.
In Finland, Facebook is described as the most important social media platform for Yle news. However, they use a variety of platforms and Mika Rahkonen (Yle) points out that flexibility and adaptation to new situations is required:
The important thing in terms of the development department is to think big. We're here to re-invent news. And to re-invent the ways to consume news, to keep up to date and be informed and entertained and so on. It means many things, and some of those we don't even understand yet. What we do understand is that we have to be so flexible that we can do stuff like in one month. Okay, here's a new platform, it looks really great, it seems that the kids are there, what are we doing there, what are we doing there that we look cool there, that we don't look stupid, that we don't look like your grandpa is trying to learn new platforms because that's immensely important. 53
Distributing news not only via public service media's own websites and apps but also via social media requires changes in how the news is produced. Panu Pokkinen, Head of Sports at Yle, argues that as the front page is becoming less important because more and more people arrive at individual articles via social media, 'we have to put our effort into how to structure one article and to try to persuade people to find another article or a third article to read with that'. 54
About a year ago, Yle started a department called Kioski in order to deal with social media distribution (see the box below).
In the UK, the BBC has also established a social news team to make the best use of social networks for distributing news and engaging with the audience. BBC News has long worked with social media both as a means of news reporting and news distribution (Belair-Gagnon 2015) and many channels and news programmes have built their own social media profiles. Throughout 2015, BBC News continued to reorganise its social media presence, rationalising its Facebook presence with the creation of a single shared page while continuing to experiment with and use newer tools like Periscope, Telegram, and YikYak. 55 Examples of social media initiatives are BBC Shorts,15-second videos primarily produced for Instagram in a way that users can understand the story with the sound off, BBC Trending, a service reporting on trending topics on the internet, and Go Figure, an image format delivering key statistics optimised for social channels.
In Germany, ARD is also experimenting with different social media platforms to distribute news content. They concentrate on Facebook and Twitter, with Twitter described more as a platform to reach other journalists, public figures, and communicators in society and less to reach a wider audience. Tagesschau.de has also agreed to participate in Instant Articles on Facebook. In-house, especially concerning the Instant Article cooperation with Facebook, people talk about a 'marriage of convenience and not out of love', says Christiane Krogmann (ARD). 56 'Sweet poison' is Kai Gniffke's (ARD) metaphor for the relationship. 57 Despite such reservations, ARD has decided to pursue this step to reach users who do not come to the PSB's own news website. Christiane Krogmann (ARD) says that the decision marks the beginning of a trial period which will be followed by an evaluation. 58
In addition, tagesschau.de has just established a new video team to produce content exclusively for Instagram, since they see this platform as growing in popularity, and also to conduct some testing of WhatsApp with a sample group of young users. At present, according to Christiane Krogmann (ARD), the main aim is to find forms of presentation that fit each platform best:
This means, if we put our videos on Facebook, we try to find an optimal presentation for this platform. We try to work with different means. For example, we only put cuttings of interviews or a core sentence on a photograph. We also often try to have subtitles. . . . If you are sitting in a train and have no ear phones, it is a way to help and explain what you see on the screen. 59
In this way, tagesschau.de uses Facebook videos to deliver explanations for current situations, which has thus far worked well, since 'the analysis provides a personal attitude and not just the pure news and this is most appreciated by the users', says Krogmann (ARD). 60
In terms of social media, Germany's ZDF distributes news mainly via Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube, but is also experimenting with Instagram and closely observing possibilities with Snapchat and WhatsApp. The ZDF interviewees highlight that different social media channels require different ways of presenting the news. Robert Amlung (ZDF) explains that, from his point of view, YouTube is closest to a traditional TV broadcaster. ZDF was also a launch partner for YouTube in Germany.
You can use the whole variety of TV formats also on YouTube and it works. You can do long formats, you can do short formats, you can do playlists, a programme sequence. . . . It is closer to where we come from. 61
Despite these advantages, he also points out that YouTube brings other challenges for a traditional TV broadcaster like questions of copyright or the challenge to draw the attention of users to the YouTube channel. Facebook, in contrast, he describes as more interactive and in general, with exceptions, more suitable for pictures and shorter videos of about a minute. The strategy for Twitter is not focused on videos, but just on pictures and text. With respect to Instagram, the organisation is in the preliminary phase of exploring what works well and what does not.
A focus of ZDF's social media activities is the interactive news show heute+, mentioned above, that is distributed via social media as well as ZDF-platforms and on traditional TV. Reaching a young target audience is the main aim behind these activities, as Elmar Theveßen (ZDF) points out: 'We know that 80% of our users on Facebook [speaking about the heute+ account] are between 17 and 45 years old. This means, this is a target group that we do not reach with traditional TV news anymore.' 62
In fact, Theveßen explains, ZDF's main television news bulletin heute reaches only 170.000 viewers under 40, out of a total of 3.7 million viewers. ZDF is aware that a Facebook presence will not necessarily bring those users to the traditional TV programme, but it still provides a point of contact with younger people. 63
In France, public service media are also engaged in distributing news on social media platforms. However, France Télévisions does not yet have a designated team in charge of this expansion process. Facebook and Twitter are mentioned by the interviewees as the most important social media platforms for news distribution, 'because Facebook is the platform with the largest part of the audience now, and Twitter is the place where you can influence the web dynamics' says Jean-François Fogel, consultant at France Télévisions. 64 Furthermore, YouTube is used as a distribution platform, with France Télévisions having been the first French broadcaster to use it, as Eric Scherer, Director of Future Media at France Télévisions, notes. 65 Snapchat is seen as an interesting innovative platform, but also a challenge to a traditional broadcaster: 'It is a problem for us, because they have walled gardens: you have to make products for discovering content there' says Jean-François Fogel. 66
One interviewee says that France Télévisions' approach to news distribution via social networks is somewhat hesitant, especially when it comes to the question of Instant Articles:
We refused to go on Facebook Instant Articles. This was our choice. Facebook is looking for content and we could provide content, but this must create value also for us, not only for Facebook. Therefore, for now, we said no. . . . I think we are not too interested in having tight collaborations with Facebook and Google. However, it is necessary to be present on these platforms. 67
At the moment, France Télévisions is just beginning to test new forms of storytelling for mobile screens and social media platforms, explains Jérôme Cathala (France Télévisions). 68 Laurent Guimier, Director of France Info, the all-news channel from Radio France, sees a 'huge opportunity' in social media distribution, but also a challenge of adapting the content for this purpose and in moderating interaction:
The only challenging aspect is that we have to invest in human resources that produces non-linear videos for Facebook. Another risk concerns the moderation of conversations linked to the content we distribute on these platforms. 69
At the Italian RAI, social media strategies reflect the more decentralised structure already discussed above. Some interviewees mention that certain news outlets are on social media platforms while others are not and that there is no corporate policy prescribing rules for social media use. One interviewee describes the situation like this:
RAI has a strong presence on social media. I personally think that we are too present on these platforms and that we repeated on these new platforms the bad habits that affected our first phase with news websites: many offers, mainly irrelevant. . . . Each of them with few people working on posting content. 70
Facebook and Twitter are described as the relevant social media platforms for news distribution. YouTube was relevant in the past, but there is no current agreement between RAI and YouTube. At stake in the discussion are the terms and conditions offered by YouTube and RAI's concerns over its visibility, revenues, and ability to deliver public service via this platform.
More broadly, one interviewee argues, there is no general consensus in RAI on social media distribution. Rather, opinions diverge in two ideological directions:
On the one side, someone thinks that taking our content to other platforms is convenient only for the players that own these platforms. On the other side, people think that we have to go where the public is located; it is complicated to reach people if you don't go in the environments where they are, and this is true especially if your products (your contents and the user experience you offer) are not particularly brilliant and innovative. According to the latter position, to reach the audience with our offer is a value in itself, beyond any implication in terms of revenues or commercial agreements. . . . I think that this conflict concerns in particular YouTube, Google News, Yahoo, and other similar platforms. Concerning social networks such as Facebook there are more open positions. 71
In this context, interviewees said they assumed the new management of RAI would pursue greater social media distribution. In fact, Monica Maggioni, the RAI President, points this way and says that RAI will focus more on social media distribution in order to reach young target groups:
We realised that our public is not where we are used to looking for it anymore; . . . Instead, we have to look for these people where they already are. And they are in the social media world, they live with their smartphones and tablets, and so we need to move our content offer to other platforms in order to become more interesting for them. 72
In Poland's two public service media organisations, social media distribution is widely discussed. Twitter is mostly used in the context of news, while Facebook is seen as the most important social media platform for the distribution of entertainment content. Polskie Radio also mentions the use of YouTube. Andrzej Godlewski, Deputy Director of TVP1, mentions that during a televised debate between candidates before the last national election, the hashtag #TVP was the most popular in Poland. Andrzej Mietkowski, Polskie Radio, explains that besides the general Polskie Radio account there is also a news account, a business account, and a sports account. 73 However, the interviews suggest that there is no general strategy for social media distribution at Polish PSB and, likewise, no specialised teams. Other formats like adapted videos for social media are not produced: 'We use social networks to deliver videos too, but as you see, if you click, you are directed to the TVP.info.' 74
In sum, this chapter has shown that all countries in the sample use social media distribution for news, but to a varying degree. All are searching for the right combination of channels over which they have a higher degree of control, like their own websites and apps, and third-party platforms that offer greater reach and opportunities to reach especially younger audience if used well, but offer less control. Some organisations, like Yle and the BBC have developed social media teams as well as new editorial products that are specifically designed for social media distribution, like Kioski or BBC Trending. Other organisations have a more ad-hoc approach to social media and have so far invested less in developing public service news for social media distribution.
In this report, we have reviewed public service media organisations' performance across six European countries in terms of their offline and online news provision and have analysed how they are working to 1) change their organisation, 2) develop mobile offerings, and 3) use social media to more effectively deliver public service news in an increasingly digital media environment.
Our interviews suggest that the BBC in the UK and Yle in Finland have consistently done more to change their organisation, invest in mobile offerings, and develop social media strategies than most other public service media organisations. Our review of public service media organisations' performance also suggests that the BBC and Yle stand out in having built significantly broader reach online to match their offline reach, whereas many other public service media organisations, despite their offline strength, have only limited reach online.
What do these two high-performing organisations have in common? We would point to four external conditions over which public service media organisations themselves have little influence, but also two important internal factors that reflect public service media organisations themselves more than their environment.
External factors first. First of all, both the BBC and Yle operate in technologically advanced media markets, more so than many other public service broadcasters operating in countries with somewhat lower levels of internet use and smartphone penetration. Second, both are well-funded compared to many other public service media organisations. (Though Yle is in absolute terms a smaller organisation than most other public service media covered here.) Third, both are integrated and centrally organised public service media organisations working across all platforms and covering their entire country. Fourth, both have a degree of insulation from direct political influence by virtue of regulatory frameworks that place them one step removed from day-to-day governmental and parliamentary politics and create some certainty through multi-year agreements on public service remit, funding, etc. 75
These four external conditions are not in place in many of the other countries covered here. In Italy and Poland, for example, public service media organisations operate in less technologically advanced markets, have lower levels of per capita funding, are separated into multiple organisations and often run in a very decentralised fashion, and have less insulation from political influence. In Germany, public service media operate in a technologically advanced market and enjoy some of the highest funding levels in the world, but are organised in a decentralised fashion and face political pressures and legal constraints around their online offerings. In France, public service media are less well funded than in Finland and the UK and delivered by different organisations which are less insulated from political influence. These external factors are likely to hamper their ability to fully seize the opportunities presented by digital media.
The internal factors next. First, both the BBC and Yle have worked hard and for many years to develop a pro-digital culture where new media are seen as opportunities rather than as threats. Second, in both organisations, senior editorial leaders have clearly and publicly underlined the need to continually change their organisations to adapt to a changing media environment; even when these changes involve hard decisions such as cutting legacy services to free up money for new initiatives, lay-offs in newsrooms built around twentieth-century media to make them fit for a twenty-first-century environment, and experiments with new initiatives, some of which will inevitably fail. Developing this kind of pro-digital culture and editorial leadership is not easy. It generally comes at least partially at the expense of traditional ways of doing things, especially when an organisation has to change and cut costs at the same time. Change without conflict is rare.
The BBC and Yle share these two features, a pro-digital culture and leadership, in common with many private media recognised as leading innovators in digital news (Küng 2015). They are features that other public service media organisations aiming to make the most of digital media would do well to develop, something many of our interviewees in France, Germany, Italy, and Poland are clearly conscious of. To paraphrase an interviewee in Italy, it is not always a question of resources, sometimes an organisation can be its own worst enemy when it comes to change. (This is clearly something the new RAI President Monica Maggioni is aware of and working to change.) This is the case at the BBC and Yle too, and that is why cultural change and leadership are so important.
The media environment public service media organisations operate in will go on changing as digital technologies continue to evolve rapidly, often faster than even the most innovative legacy media organisations (whether private or public) can follow. The mobile, social internet of today is dramatically different from the desktop-based internet that preceded it and continues to evolve. Many legacy media organisations are still going through a painful and prolonged transition to adjust to a web 1.0 even as a web 2.0 has been completely mainstream for most Europeans for years. Most news organisations' response to the rise of digital media has been reactive, defensive, and pragmatic. 76 This is a dangerous approach to innovation, as the environment continues to change at a faster pace than many media organisations, compounding their problems over time. As difficult as changes over the last two decades have been, the fact remains that there is far more to come – even at the BBC and Yle, public service news provision is still deeply shaped by legacy media while the media environment is becoming mainly digital. Unless public service media organisations develop organisational forms, platforms, and distribution strategies tailored to this changing environment, they will lose touch with their audience – the public they exist to serve.
Facilitating this ongoing renewal and evolution of public service news delivery to match the media environment in which we live requires both external and internal change. In terms of external factors, public service news provision benefits from a stable funding environment and a degree of insulation from direct political influence (even as public service media should of course have clearly defined remits and be held effectively to account for how public money is spent). How these issues should be handled is a matter for public discussion and political decision-making. In terms of internal factors, public service news provision online benefits from a pro-digital culture in the organisation and from senior editorial leadership publicly embracing and working towards seizing the opportunities offered by digital media. These are issues public service media themselves need to address if they want to stay relevant in an increasingly digital media environment.
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Positions are those people held at the time they were interviewed.
For the purposes of this report, public service media are understood as media produced by major publicly funded and state-owned media organisations, often historically referred to as public service broadcasters (PSBs) due to their origins in radio and television broadcasting. Different countries define public service media differently. e.g. in Germany, the Intestate Treaty on Broadcasting and Telemedia defines PSBs by naming the stations and gives them a number of public remits. In France, Italy or Poland PSBs are simply defined as broadcasters in public ownership. In the UK public service broadcasting also includes privately owned and commercially run channels since they also have certain public service obligations. Throughout the report we use 'public service media' instead of 'public service broadcasting' because these organisations all operate across different platforms, beyond radio and television (see arriaza ibarra et al. 2015: 3–4) ↩
See e.g. Arriaza Ibarra et al. 2015; Brevini 2013; Donders and Moe 2011; Humphreys 2010; Iosifidis 2010. ↩
These discussions play out in a wider context where the European Commission has long encouraged member states to refine the definition of public service media to reflect new needs and responsibilities in the digital age and develop public value tests to evaluate the impact of planned publicly funded media services before their introduction (for an overview see Donders and Moe 2011) ↩
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/07/poland-president-signs-bill-putting-state-media-under-government-control ↩
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/
This report is about how the BBC and other public service media organisations across Europe are facing the opportunities and challenges presented by digital media, in their different national economic and political contexts, and about the choices they make now about the future of public service news provision. It is the first of a series of annual reports that will focus specifically on how European public service media are adapting to the rise of digital media; a series of reports that will over time cover more countries and more issues than those discussed here.
The report is structured as follows. First, we review public service news performance across offline and online platforms and provide a brief overview of the organisation and funding of public service media across the countries covered. Second, we provide a series of country profiles for those readers interested in more context on each case. (These can be skipped.) After this we turn to analysing how different public service media organisations are handling the challenges and opportunities presented by the rise of digital media. In the third part of the report, we focus on organisational change and innovation, in the fourth part on mobile news, in the fifth part on social media. Throughout, we provide brief case studies of interesting initiatives from various public service media organisations covered.
Public Service News Performance: Offline and Online
Public service media have enjoyed a strong position in many European countries for decades, but their position as online news providers is in many cases less strong. On the one hand, public service media continue to compete with a range of private media domestically. Compared to these, public service media often appear strong. On the other hand, they also face competition from a growing number of new players including both digital journalism players like BuzzFeed, the Huffington Post, and Vice, video-on-demand services like Netflix and Amazon Prime, as well as large digital intermediaries including search engines (Google), video hosting sites (YouTube), and social networking sites (Facebook). Viewed against these, public service media appear less strong.
Our interviewees across all countries highlight many advantages public service media organisations have as they adapt to an increasingly digital media environment. These include their well-established reputations and high-profile brands, their large and loyal offline audiences, and the fact that their funding models mean that they do not need to focus on monetisation as a central part of their digital strategy. (With Poland and Italy as partial exceptions as public service media there rely in part on significant commercial revenues.)
The people we spoke to, however, also highlight a number of challenges in terms of effectively delivering public service news today. Three stand out as particularly central, and all are backed up by data from the Reuters Institute Digital News Report and many other studies. [6. The annual Digital News Report published by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism (RISJ) analyses how news is being consumed in a range of countries across the world. It is based on an online questionnaire conducted by YouGov. The data is weighted to targets based on census/industry accepted data to represent the total population of each country. The sample is reflective of the population that has access to the internet. As this survey deals with news consumption, anyone who said that they had not consumed any news in the past month was filtered out. The main report is available as Newman et al. (2015) and a supplementary report by Fletcher et al. (2015). In addition, the underlying data are available on digitalnewsreport.org ↩
Other publicly funded organisations such as the Franco-German channel, Arte, or the international channels, Radio France Internationale, France 24, and TV5 Monde are not covered here ↩
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35303912
TVP had a strong position in the Polish television market with a combined daily audience share of 29% in 2014. (It has, however, seen that share decline significantly in recent years: EAO 2016). In terms of news, 58% of respondents in the Digital News Report 2015 survey said that they had relied on TVP for news in the previous week (see Table 1). Only the commercial broadcaster TVN had a wider reach (61%). Online, however, portals like Onet (48%) and commercial broadcasters like TVN24 online (36%) have far wider reach than TVP Online, which was named a source of online news by 20% of respondents (Fletcher et al. 2015).
In clear contrast to the other countries covered here, smartphones still play only a limited role in Poland: 14% of respondents saw their smartphone as their main way of accessing news online. Social media, however, are very important in Poland: 52% of respondents use them as a source of news weekly, again, first of all Facebook and secondly YouTube (Fletcher et al. 2015).
Public funding for public service media in Poland was €4 per capita in 2014, far lower than in any other country covered in the report, even after taking into account that Poland is poorer than the five other countries. (Poland's per capita GDP is about two-thirds of Italy's, about half of the UK's.) In 2014, the annual licence fee was €48 for television and €14 for radio. The evasion rate in 2014 was estimated to be 65%. [10. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-26546570 ↩
As noted above, the EAO figures for total BBC revenues include the turnover for its considerable commercial and international activities. Well over 90% of the cost of its domestic services is met from the licence fee. ↩
Mika Rahkonen, Head of Development/Media lab, News and Current Affairs, Yle, interviewed by Annika Sehl, 4 Dec. 2015, in Helsinki. ↩
Ibid ↩
Atte Jääskeläinen, Director of News and Current Affairs, Yle, interviewed by Annika Sehl, 4 Dec. 2015, in Helsinki. ↩
Michael Hedley, Head of Strategy, News, BBC, interviewed by Annika Sehl, 14 Dec. 2015, in London ↩
http://www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/speeches/2013/james-harding ↩
Steve Herrmann, Executive Editor of Digital, BBC News, presentation at RISJ, 11 Nov. 2015. ↩
https://meedia.de/2010/03/21/tagesschau-dreht-redaktionsreform-zuruck/ Most journalists at ARD today work primarily for 'their' medium and only support other media in special cases like breaking news situations. Christiane Krogmann, Editor in Chief, tagesschau.de, ARD, says:
For us, these are really synergy effects in case of breaking news. Today, it is no problem anymore to go into the neighbouring room and ask who has time right now and can support us. The online team is still smaller than the television team due to a traditional structure. However, we think that a lot will still change in this respect. [19. Christiane Krogmann, Editor in Chief, tagesschau.de, ARD, interviewed by Annika Sehl, 21 Dec. 2015, in Hamburg. ↩
http://web.archive.org/web/20151127020146/http://www.dwdl.de/magazin/53556/heute_im_zdf_experimente_ohne_breaking_news/
[22. See e.g. http://www.zeit.de/kultur/film/2015-05/heute-plus-zdf-nachrichten-broeckerhoff ↩
In France, the inherited structures of traditional public service broadcasting continue to influence how news is provided today. In contrast to integrated public service media like the BBC and Yle, France Télévisions and Radio France are separate organisations, each built around a distinct legacy broadcast platform.
The news website FranceTV Info is produced by a separate online newsroom of France Télévisions. This newsroom is organised around what Jérôme Cathala, Director of News at France Télévisions, calls 'news temporality' rather than by topic or channel. [24. Jérôme cathala, Director of News, France Télévisions, interviewed by Alessio Cornia, 18 Dec. 2015, in Paris. ↩
Monica Maggioni, President of RAI, RAI, interviewed by Alessio Cornia, 27 Jan. 2016, in Rome. ↩
Andrea Fabiano, Deputy-Director of Raiuno, interviewed by Alessio Cornia, 4 Dec. 2015, in Rome. ↩
Aki Kekäläinen, Head of Web and Mobile Development, Yle, interviewed by Annika Sehl, 3 Dec. 2015, in Helsinki. ↩
For a more comprehensive description of the BBC News Lab as well as current and past projects see http://bbcnewslabs.co.uk/projects. ↩
Dr Kai Gniffke, First Editor in Chief 'ARD Aktuell', ARD, interviewed by Annika Sehl, 21 Dec. 2015, in Hamburg. ↩
Robert Amlung, Head of Digital Strategy, ZDF, interviewed by Annika Sehl, 22 Dec. 2015, in Mainz. ↩
Elmar Theveßen, Deputy Editor-in-Chief, Head of News, ZDF, interviewed by Annika Sehl, 4 Jan. 2016, in Mainz. ↩
Roberto Mastroianni, News Editor and Media Manager at Rainews24, RAI, interviewed by Alessio Cornia, 3 Dec. 2015, in Rome. ↩
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/internet/entries/fc6b5571-f3dd-3af5-83b9-000ddb4f0381 ↩
Michael Hedley, Head of Strategy, News, BBC, interviewed by Annika Sehl, 14 dec. 2015, in London. ↩
Daniel Wilson, Head of UK Policy, BBC, interviewed by Annika Sehl, 18 Dec. 2015, in London. ↩
'The BBC's Programmes and Services in the Next Charter', https://downloads.bbc.co.uk/aboutthebbc/reports/pdf/futureofthebbc2015.pdf Newstream is projected to be a mobile-focused project with a greater focus on video, complemented by audio, graphics, and text live from BBC News, and aims to integrate personal, portable, and on-demand news.
The balance between personalisation, general news, and the occasional serendipitous surprise is also central to how the Yle has developed its news app NewsWatch, launched in 2014 (see box below).
[40. Aki Kekäläinen, Head of Web and Mobile Development, Yle, interviewed by Annika Sehl, 3 Dec. 2015, in Helsinki. ↩
Thristiane Krogmann, Editor in Chief, tagesschau.de, ARD, interviewed by Annika Sehl, 21 Dec. 2015, in Hamburg. The two national German public service media organisations ARD and ZDF have now been allowed to develop their first stand-alone online news offer, after a planned (joint) news channel aimed at 14-29 year-olds and intended to work across broadcast and online was turned into an online-only offer by a political decision at the Länder-level. The channel is supposed to launch in 2016. ↩
Jean-François Fogel, consultant, France Télévisions, interviewed by Alessio Cornia, 17 Dec. 17, 2015, in Paris. ↩
Aki Kekäläinen, Head of Web and Mobile development, Yle, interviewed by Annika Sehl, 3 Dec. 2015, in Helsinki. In Finland as well as in some other countries, public service media are forbidden from having commercial advertisements online. The situation is different in Italy and especially Poland, where advertising is an important part of public service media revenues and many have concerns over monetisation similar to those expressed by many private media: 'We are not a part of the Zuckerberg business, and we are not a part of the Google business. We have our own business' says Adrzej Szozda, Deputy responsible for New Media at Polskie Radio (interviewed by Alessio Cornia, 11 Jan. 2016, in Warsaw). ↩
Tin Radovani, Strategy Analyst for the World Service, BBC, interviewed by Annika Sehl, 14 Dec. 14, 2015, in London. ↩
Eric Scherer, Director of Future Media, France Télévisions, interviewed by Alessio Cornia, 21 Dec. 2015, via Skype. ↩
Andrzej Mietkowski, responsible for New Media, Polskie Radio, interviewed by Alessio Cornia, 11 Jan. 2016, in Warsaw. ↩
Quote not for attribution. ↩
https://tubularlabs.com/yt/bbcnews ↩
Panu Pokkinen, Head of Sports, Yle, interviewed by Annika Sehl, 3 Dec. 2015, in Helsinki. ↩
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-editors-35061802 ↩
Christiane Krogmann, Editor in Chief, tagesschau.de, ARD, interviewed by Annika Sehl, 21 Dec. 2015, in Hamburg. ↩
Christiane Krogmann, Editor in Chief, tagesschau.de, ARD, interviewed by Annika Sehl, 21 Dec. 2015, in Hamburg ↩
Jean-François Fogel, consultant, France Télévisions, interviewed by Alessio Cornia, 17 Dec. 2015, in Paris. ↩
Jean-François Fogel, consultant, France Télévisions, interviewed by Alessio Cornia, 17 Dec. 2015, in Paris ↩
Jérôme Cathala, Director of News, France Télévisions, interviewed by Alessio Cornia, 18 Dec. 2015, in Paris. ↩
Laurent Guimier, Director of France Info, Radio France, interviewed by Alessio Cornia, 18 Dec. 2015, in Paris. ↩
Andrzej Godlewski, Deputy Director of TVP1, TVP; interviewed by Alessio Cornia, 11 Jan. 2016, in Warsaw. ↩
e.g. Hanretty (2011), brevini (2013), Nowak (2014). ↩
e.g. Boczkowski (2004). ↩
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© 2022 Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism | online platforms on a weekly basis in the UK, compared to 24% for ZDF in Germany.
The second challenge is moving from a digital strategy centred on desktop internet and personal computers to one focused on mobile devices. Across the countries covered here, between 27% (UK) and 14% (Poland) of online news users say that smartphones are the main device used for news consumption. Amongst younger people, the percentage is far higher, and the figure has been rising rapidly in recent years.
The third challenge is developing effective ways of delivering public service news via third-party platforms including search engines, social media, video-hosting sites, and messaging apps. Across the countries covered here, between 56% (Poland) and 23% (Germany) of online news users say they consume, share or discuss news via Facebook. Only in the UK do significantly more people use public service media for news online than use social media for news.
These three challenges are generally seen as closely linked in that more effective strategies for mobile news and use of third-party platforms are seen as key to reaching younger audiences and serving the whole population via all relevant channels. These challenges are also all seen as linked to an underlying issue of organisational change as most public service news provision is still structured primarily around legacy broadcast media rather than digital media.
Table 1 provides an overview of the performance of public service news offline and online in terms of audience reach in the six countries covered. Overall, public service media are amongst the most widely used sources of offline news in all six countries, but their online reach varies significantly and in some countries social media are by now more frequently named as a source of online news than public service media.
Table 2 provides an overview of the main national public service media organisations in each of the six countries, and their funding structure. Some of these are integrated public service providers which have always operated across platforms (radio, television, and now online). Others are separated by legacy platform (radio and television, each with their own online offerings). The funding levels vary, as do the commercially generated revenues, from a small fraction for the Finnish Yle to a majority of total revenues at the Polish TVP.
The next section provides a series of country profiles for readers who want more context on each country. These can be skipped by those who want to go straight to the main findings around organisational change, mobile news provision, and use of social media.
Public Service News in Europe: Country Profiles
Finland – Yle
The Finnish public service media organisation Yle is an integrated public service provider for TV, radio and digital. It is 99.9% state-owned and operations are financed by public broadcasting tax which replaced television licences at the beginning of 2013. Yle has a strong position in terms of television reach. In 2014, the Yle television channels had a total daily audience market share of 55% (EAO 2016).
When it comes specifically to news, 61% of Finnish respondents in the Digital News Report 2015 stated that they had watched Yle TV news in the last week. This means that Yle is the most widely used offline source of news in Finland. Online, Yle also has a strong position with 39% saying they use various Yle sites for news, but Yle has lower reach than the website of two tabloid newspapers Illta-Sanomat (55%) and Iltalehti (51%) (Newman et al. 2015; see Table 1).
Smartphone use is high in Finland. Almost one in four respondents said smartphones are their main way of accessing news online. Social media were used by 40% of respondents specifically as a source of news in the last week (see Table 1). Facebook is the most widely used social media platform for news in Finland, followed by YouTube (Newman et al, 2015).
Since 2013, the Finnish public service media organisation Yle has been tax-funded. In contrast to the flat licence fee before 2013, the tax is income-adjusted. All individual adults pay a flat income tax earmarked for Yleof 0.68% up to a maximum of €140 per year. The lowest paid, those earning less than €7,352 a year are exempt from paying the tax.
At €85 per capita, Finland has the second highest level of public service funding of all the countries covered here, and with 97% of Yle's €476m budget coming from public funds, it has the lowest level of commercial funding of public service media (EAO 2016, see Table 2).
France – France Télévisions and Radio France
French public service media consist of two main separate organisations, one built around TV and one around radio: France Télévisions and Radio France. 6 Both are state-owned companies and funded by the revenues from a licence fee, additional state funding as well as commercial revenues. Policies on French public service media have been characterised by a strong government influence in the past (see Brevini 2013).
In France, public service media also have a fairly strong position in terms of television audience share. Combined, the main French public channels in 2014 together accounted for about one-third (30%) of daily viewing (EAO 2016).
For news, commercial television is the most widely used offline source. according to the Digital News Report 2015, the private channels BFM TV and TF 1 are the leading sources of news offline. both have 43% of French respondents saying they have used them in the last week. France Télévisions by comparison reaches 34%. Online, the most widely used brands are prominent national newspapers like the websites of the free daily 20 Minutes (12%), Le Monde (11%) and Le Figaro (10%) as well as digital – only offerings from Google News (11%) and Yahoo (8%). The public service media websites (FranceTV info and the various domains of France Télévisions) are used by a combined 16% of respondents as a source of news (Newman et al. 2015; see Table 1).
The smartphone is increasingly important for how people in France access news. A quarter said it is their main way of accessing online news. Social media are also important with 34% of respondent using them specifically as a source of news. Facebook is the main social media platform for news, followed by Youtube (Newman et al. 2015).
French public service funding is, at €46 per capita, significantly lower than in Finland, Germany, or the United Kingdom, but considerably higher than Italy or Poland. France Télévisions' total revenues for 2014 were €3,018m, of which 82% came from public funding and the rest from commercial sources. Radio France revenues were €688m, and 84% came from public funding (EAO 2016; see Table 2). The majority of the funds for public service media in France comes from a household licence fee of €137 per annum, with some additional funding provided by the state.
in germany, public service media structure reflects the federal political structure. there are two main national public service broadcasters: ard (founded in 1950) and ZdF (only tv, founded in 1963), as well as deutschlandradio, a national public service radio broadcaster (founded in 1994) which co-operates with ard and ZdF. ard consists of nine regional public service broadcasters. between them they all operate their own regional television channels, some in co-operation with others, and all of them have their own radio channels. together they collaborate on national programming for the so-called 'first channel' (das erste). in addition to this, the international service deutsche welle (dw) (founded 1953) is also a member of ard, but not covered here. in contrast to the ard's complex federated structure, ZdF (Second german television) is established by all 16 states and serves a national audience.
Germany – ARD and ZDF
Together, the German public television channels accounted for a total daily audience share of 45% in 2014 (EAO 2016). when it comes to news, the national public service evening news bulletins still draw a large audience. In the Digital News Report 2015, 52% of German respondents said in the last week they had watched the main ARD news programme Tagesschau and 38% named ZDF's flagship news programme heute. In comparison, RTL Aktuell, from the private broadcaster RTL, reached 36% of respondents weekly. Despite their offline strength, however, German public service media have only limited reach online. The main ARD online news offerings were used by 8% and ZDF.de by 7% (see Table 1). The site of the national news magazine Spiegel Online (16%), the portal t-online (13%), and the main tabloid newspapers Bild.de (11%) all reached more people online (Newman et al. 2015).
Almost a quarter of German respondents said the smartphone is their main way of accessing online news. Social media platforms are used by 25% of respondents specifically as a source of news on a weekly basis. Facebook is the most important social media site in terms of news, followed by Youtube (Newman et al. 2015).
Since 2013, all households in Germany have been paying a flat fee of €210 per annum. This fee has replaced the old GEZ radio and TV fee, which was paid per device. The fee is still defined as a 'broadcasting contribution' (Rundfunkbeitrag) and not a public service contribution.
Public funding for public service media amounted to €98 per capita in 2014 in Germany, the highest level of all the countries covered here. Public funding accounted for 86% of ARD's total revenues of €6,942m, and 85% of ZDF's €2,254m, with the rest coming from commercial sources (EAO 2016; see table 2). Combined, the German public service media have the largest public service budgets in the world.
Italy – RAI
RAI is Italy's national state-owned public service broadcaster. It is an integrated organisation for TV and radio. RAI is funded primarily by licence fee but relies on commercial sources for almost 40% of its total income, more than public service media in any other country covered apart from Poland. Political instability in Italy and frequent changes in government, combined with a governance structure that allows for more direct political influence than in some other countries, has led to a constant change in management in RAI, something that has previously been highlighted as holding back its development of digital content and services (Brevini 2013).
RAI channels have a strong overall position in Italian television, accounting for a combined total daily audience share of 38% in 2014 (EAO 2016). Television is also the most widely used source of news in Italy. While RAI's news bulletins are popular on TV according to the Digital News Report 2015, RAI has only limited reach online. The RAI.TV website was named by 15% of respondents as a source of news (see Table 1). Online, the sites of national newspapers like Republica.it (29%) and digital-only offerings like Google News (22%) are far more widely used (Newman et al. 2015).
Almost a quarter of Italian respondents identify their smartphone as their main way of accessing news online. Social media are particularly important in Italy. 46% of respondents say they use social media specifically as a source of news weekly. Again, Facebook is the most widely used site for news, followed by YouTube (Newman et al. 2015).
Public service media funding in Italy was at €26 per capita in 2014. Of the countries covered here, only Poland has lower levels of funding. The funding comes from a licence fee which was €113.50 in 2015. Recently, the Italian government has reduced this to €100 while simultaneously cracking down on widespread evasion (estimated at 26% of all households): from July 2016 all the Italian electricity bills will have a surcharge for the RAI licence fee. Public funding accounted for just over 60% of RAI's total of €2,595m revenues in 2014 (EAO 2016; see table 2), the rest came from commercial sources, most importantly television advertising.
Poland – Telewizja Polska and Polskie Radio
As in France, public service media in Poland are organised into separate organisations each built around a particular kind of traditional broadcasting: Telewizja Polska (TVP) and Polskie Radio. Both are state-owned. For public service media in Poland, commercial revenues are very important, and licence fee revenues relatively limited. As a consequence, some observers see Polish public service media as operating in ways very similar to their commercial, privately owned competitors. As noted in the introduction, the governance of public service media in Poland has changed significantly in 2016 with the introduction of a new media law that gives the government much more direct control. 7 This has been subject to critique from outside observers and has led the European commission to start a preliminary assessment of whether the new law represents a 'systemic threat' to fundamental EU values. 8 Of Telewizja Polska (TVP) revenues, 31% is from public funds with the rest from commercial sources, while 61% of Polskie Radio funding is from public sources, with the rest commercial (EAO 2016; see Table 2).
The UK – The BBC
The BBC is the world's oldest national broadcasting organisation (founded 1922) and the largest broadcaster in the world by number of employees. It is an integrated organisation for TV and radio and serves the whole of the UK. Apart from its national services it also operates the BBC World Service and BBC Worldwide, its main commercial arm. The BBC's domestic services are almost exclusively funded by licence fee. The BBC is established under a royal charter. The current charter came into effect in 2007 and is due to expire in 2016, with the charter process renewal currently under way.
In the UK in 2013, the BBC had a relatively strong position in television with a combined daily audience share for all channels of 35% (EAO 2014). The BBC has a particularly strong position in the UK when it comes to news. According to the Digital News Report 2015, it reaches 72% of respondents via traditional television and radio on a weekly basis. It has far wider reach than the second most widely source of offline news in the UK, ITV (used by 32%). The BBC is also strong in online news. Almost half of respondents (48%) report using BBC Online, making it not only the most popular source of online news in the UK, but also the most successful of all organisations in the 12 countries covered in the 2015 Digital News Report (see Table 1). After the BBC, the most widely used sources of online news in the UK are the Mail Online (14%), the Huffington Post (12%) and the Guardian online (12%) (Newman et al. 2015).
Of respondents in the UK, 27% mentioned smartphones as their main way of accessing online news. Half of smartphone users also said they use the BBC news app. Social media are used by 36% of respondents specifically as a source of news on a weekly basis. Facebook is the most important social network for coming into contact with news, followed by Twitter. YouTube, which is widely used in most other countries covered here, is only named by 7% in the UK as a place where they find news (Newman et al. 2015).
Public funding for public service media was €76 per capita in the UK in 2014. The annual licence fee is £145.50 per household. An estimated 82% of the BBC's total revenues of €5,961m came from public funds in 2014 (EAO 2016; see table 2). 9
Public Service News Approaches to Organisational Change and Innovation
People in every public service organisation in all the countries covered highlight the importance of organisational change and innovation to delivering public service news more effectively online. But the different public service media organisations have very | 3,593 |
Cuba Policy Trip – Day 7
We began the day hearing from a top economist with the University of Havana Economics Department who was open and frank. She spoke of Cuba's ambitious goals and trying to make the economy sustainable, which is neither easy nor successful, yet. She described Cuba as not trying to change from socialism, but trying to mix socialism with other parts of market autonomy to make households and enterprises efficient.
Discussion of the program of changes in 2011 and why it has it been slow and not successful – due to number of contrasts:
Compared with other countries Cuba has among the lowest GDP, but second in human development index. Keeping the index is expensive.
Forty percent of GDP is devoted to special services – the highest in<|fim_middle|> a sewing machine for rent. Without internet and all its benefits, people put signs in their windows when they wish to sell something i.e. an appliance. After securing material from Panama, this enterprising young woman has made a small success in selling clothing. She is yet, another example of a burgeoning micro business.
We made our way to Café Madrigal, located inside a colonial mansion with numerous stunning works of arts on the walls. We were joined by musician Frank Delgado, who describes himself as a part of the nueva trova movement, which emerged in the late 1960s following the Cuban Revolution of 1959. Delgado described this movement as attempting to focus on serious issues such as sexism, racism, socialism and injustice, to name a few. We then had the privilege of hearing a musical performance by Frank Delgado, which was wonderful.
We ended the day with a farewell dinner at Paladar San Cristobal, featuring authentic Cuban food and a stunning interior with marble pillars and walls covered in photos, clocks, and antique record covers. We took this time to talk about the highlights of the trip for each of us and it was then that it set in that our trip was nearly at its end.
Economic Indicators
Resources
Intro to Daily Reports
Day 1: Sunday, April 19, 2015
Day 2: Monday, April 20, 2015
Day 3: Tuesday, April 21, 2015
Day 4: Wednesday, April 22, 2015
Day 5: Thursday, April 23, 2015
Day 6: Friday, April 24, 2015
Day 7: Saturday, April 25, 2015
Day 8: Sunday, April 26, 2015 | the world. Cuba is not invested enough in innovation success.
Although Cuba is underdeveloped, there is a demographic pattern of developed counties i.e. the high life expectancy, population decreasing, and aging population.
The labor concentration is in lowest areas i.e. agriculture, construction, and social services. Cuba has experts in the bio and medical world with less than 9 percent of work force in these areas. There is a hope for the future in these areas.
Cuba is not allowed to be in international capital market. Cuba has to grow, but needs investment and right now can't obtain international financing. The countries which are willing to lend do so at high interest rates.
Cuba is restricted via exports and is import driven. The twisted dual currency system kills any export opportunities, and promotes only imports.
After three years of new laws and economic changes there was a 1.3 percent growth last year. Sugar was 12 percent lower and tourism grew only 4 percent. Overall growth was one percent.
Ideas for the future include change in internal relative prices and the need to lower exchange rates. New exchange will help exports, but cause bankruptcies too – but 60 percent of enterprises will be better off after the new currency.
The average salary has been raised over the last ten years, however, efficiency has not improved. Cuba has had a policy of full employment which results in low wages. And there is a very high social net. There exists free education to PhD level, food for all, etc. And there are no layoffs – very important. And a very narrow salary scale. Cuba is in a vicious circle.
In foreign investment – the average world wide FDI is more than 3 percent. Latin America has 2.7 percent. Cuba has .7 percent. This needs to at least double.
The idea of having a state company in the middle between foreign countries and locals is to not underpay the workers, which is a bit of an oxymoron – really meant to not just have foreigners look for low labor. There are some changes in state owned enterprises for greater autonomy. This has been slow and is greatly needed.
There is a change in labor market. Ten percent of state employees are now moving to the private sector – small scale shops, taxis, restaurants, barbers, and beauty shops.
Regarding agriculture – 75 percent of land is private or cooperative. But it is still very low productivity.
There is a discussion of a new tax reform to try progressive taxes, which is well- designed for the future.
Some advantages to Cuba i.e. weather, location, safety for foreigners, higher-educated human capital.
The best immediate growth will be in tourism, sugar, nickel, and agriculture – but need to move in to health cluster and more technological products.
She noted that Cuba needs to have social reform and needs to be more flexible. The average population doesn't understand how much social services cost.
All Cubans like and only want to improve the health and education system, even if they want other changes.
Bureaucracy is the real problem – and we hear again – the idea of needing a retail system and wholesale system. People do not have enough access to credit market and cannot use their home or land as collateral. This is because the government is trying to protect the people from losing their property. At the same time there is a parallel economy going on with those who receive remittances and support from Miami.
The worst crisis was in the nineties, with 35 percent GDP loss in two years. It was still believed by the historic leaders that parts of the old system could be maintained. Now that is not believed any more.
We then moved from the hotel and took a pedestrian ferry across the bay of Havana to Regla. Regla was originally founded during the colonial period and was used as a camp for African slaves, making its Afro-Cuban roots very strong to this day.
Here is a photo of the ferry:
I also took these photos from the ferry:
Here are some lovely photos of Regla:
We met with Alexey Rodriguez and Magia Lopez of the jazz, hip hop duo Obsesión, who shared their thoughts on gender and race issues in Cuba. They were kind enough to open their home, which was in a lower income neighborhood. We climbed several flights of narrow stairs until we reached their small, but very neat rooftop apartment which was shared by other family members, including Alexey's very sweet Mother, who was cooking lunch. The group's manager, who spoke fluent English, interpreted during the informal presentation and discussion. We viewed two of their videos, one which focused on respect for Mothers and actually featured Alexey's Mother.
They originally were street performers who just wanted to belong, but now have gained international status. In their younger days they only would sit on the roof tops with coat hangers for antennae listening to the otherwise blocked Miami 99Jams radio station.
Later with televisions close to the coast, they might be lucky enough to catch a glimpse of Soul Train. When the Soviet period ended, there was no transition – life changed from one day to another. Jobs were lost, there were social ills, and people trying to reach the US via rafts. Music was now a way to express anger and dissatisfaction. Although the musicians didn't have access to markets or technology, they did get the attention of activists. In 2001, Harry Belafonte assisted nine Cuban rappers in visiting New York City. The trip had originally been scheduled for September 11, 2001, and was then rescheduled for October of the same year. It gave the opportunity for musical exchange, access to technology and marketing. They have regular gatherings in Havana of younger artists and continue to encourage activism and positive messages.
We enjoyed lunch at El Templete Restaurant, known for its fresh seafood and lively environment.
The name of the restaurant is derived from its close proximity to El Templete Monument, which pays tribute to the location where the establishment of the town of San Cristóbal de la Habana was celebrated in 1519. The monument includes a statue of the bust of Christopher Columbus.
During a meal, our guide explained the maternity leave in Cuba for government workers. A mother is allowed one year prior to giving birth in case medical assistance is needed for fertility. With so many women of child-bearing age leaving Cuba, this has importance. Then following birth, another year of paid leave is allowed, and yet another year of unpaid leave can be requested. The rules for the small business community seem to be much more unclear.
Following lunch we saw the World Heritage and National Monument, the Hotel Nacional de Cuba. It is truly a unique structure, featuring neo-classical, neo-colonial, Hispano-Moorish, Arabic, and Art Deco architecture.
The hotel is located on the site of the Santa Clara battery, with two cannons dating back to the 1797. Built by US firms McKim, Mead & White and Purdy & Henderson Company in just 14 months, the hotel was opened to the public in 1930, when Cuba was a major travel destination of Americans. Prominent visitors to this hotel included Churchill, Hemingway, John Wayne, Sinatra, Alexander Fleming, and Ava Gardner, to name a few. The Hotel Nacional was even the site for a mob summit in 1946 hosted by Meyer Lansky and Lucky Luciano and attended by Albert Anastasia, Vito Genovese, Frank Costello, and Santo Trafficante, Jr.
There was a large poster for each decade of VIPS who had visited the hotel. Note: Arnold Schwarzenegger in the upper right-hand corner.
We walked through the gardens around the Hotel Nacional. There is a museum, featuring history from the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. During this time, trenches were created below the gardens and defenses were set up by Fidel Castro and Che Guevara to prepare the city for an aerial attack.
Later, in walking back to our hotel, we passed by the old Bacardi headquarters which is an incredible Art Deco building and the second tallest in the city next to the Capitol building.
After taking a few photos of the exterior, the (presumably) security guard beckoned for us to enter. He said there was office space to rent, however, there was no signage indicating so. The lobby had been restored and is beautiful.
What had been the bar area is still closed. Apparently the Bacardi headquarters in Puerto Rico has a recreation of the original bar. The guard asked if we would like to take the elevator to the top and see the view. We paid a peso per person and pushed the button for the 7 th floor. When we stepped out of the elevator, it was a totally empty area with a concrete floor. In a small room next door there was an old stair well, which led to an even small staircase. Eventually, we were standing outside on the top tier with a most spectacular 360'degree view of the city.
When we came back down to the lobby area, the guard was gone, and the building was empty. We presumed he had simply supplemented his salary in "allowing" us to see the tower. Our guide indicated that whole tours cannot go up there, and that we were just there at the "right" time.
The delegation also had the opportunity to meet with a young woman entrepreneur in her home. Again, this meant climbing up several narrow stairs to a small apartment. The woman had two small children, yet graciously allowed the delegation to enter and hear about her sewing and clothing manufacturing enterprise. Her mission had begun by walking the streets for a month until she found | 1,987 |
A History degree will broaden your perspectives as you explore times, places, and peoples who are both dramatically different yet, at the same time, so very much like yourself. History is not merely dates, places, and names from the past. It is the story of people - who they are and why they do what they do - dynamic, alive, and ever-changing. To understand history is to<|fim_middle|> of the best ways to discover a degree program is to check out the course listings. Preview the courses for History at Indiana Wesleyan University using the course catalog. | understand yourself and others.
IWU's Bachelor of Arts with a major in History program will help you change the world by first learning how it came to be, what it is today, and where it is headed. This will lead you to an appreciation of diversity and enable you to pursue, discover, and value what matters most. The study of the past should lead to self-examination culminating in the question, "What can I learn about how to live?" These dispositions are central to and crucial for becoming citizens of the world in the twenty-first century.
Students may minor in History as a supplement to another IWU major.
If you have a passion for understanding the past and bringing a Christian worldview and context to your future work, then you should consider majoring in History at Indiana Wesleyan University.
All of the History faculty members at IWU have an earned doctorate in that subject. They are committed teachers, scholars, and Christians. A sample of the areas of historical study, interest, and expertise of our faculty includes: Ancient, Late Antiquity, Medieval, Early Modern Europe, England, Latin America, and U.S. Political and Constitutional History.
The History faculty strives to challenge untested assumptions, inspire thoughtful engagement, and cultivate a historical perspective in their students. They desire graduates who can critically analyze, appreciate, and honestly evaluate the past, resulting in a deeper understanding of the present, a greater appreciation of the human condition, and some inkling of where we may be headed in the future.
One | 306 |
A ROYAL TREAT
In January 1969, Sid Wertheim opened the first Little King at 80th and Dodge in Omaha, Nebraska. Over four decades later, people all over town still love the delicious taste of bread that's baked on-site, quality meats and cheeses sliced right when you order, and soups that<|fim_middle|>'re doing. | are second-in-line to none. Because when it comes to freshness, flavor and friendliness, folks in these parts know that Little King is big where it counts. Just the way Sid always wanted it to be.
"Little King is the best sandwich shop in the world!"
- Tonya
"I have been a loyal Little King customer since I was 18. I am now 51. I think the quality of food is excellent, and that's why I continue to go there."
"I've loved Little King for more than 20 years, and I hope you're around for another 20! You're the best there is!"
- Melissa
"You are the only deli around that serves real roast beef, not the processed junk."
Ask here or just let us know how we | 162 |
Reduction of the appeal fee
Oral proceedings held by videoconference
COVID-19 pandemic: remedies in case of non-observance of periods
Sequence listings
FAQ - Unitary Patent
A Unitary Patent – or "European patent with unitary effect" – is a European patent, granted by the EPO under the rules and procedures of the European Patent Convention, to which, at the patent proprietor's request, unitary effect is given for the territory of the EU Member States participating in the Unitary Patent system that have ratified the Agreement on a Unified Patent Court. It is expected that, initially, a Unitary Patent will cover the territory of at least 17 EU Member States (see also "What is the territorial scope of a Unitary Patent?").
A Unitary Patent gives inventors uniform and territorially broad protection in the participating EU Member States. Uniform protection means that the scope of the right conferred by the Unitary Patent and its limitations are the same for all the participating states, as are the available legal remedies.
Why was the Unitary Patent introduced?
Today, an inventor can protect an invention in Europe via a national patent or a European patent. The EPO examines applications for European patents centrally, saving inventors the costs of parallel national applications, while ensuring a high quality of granted patents.
However, granted European patents must be validated and maintained individually in each<|fim_middle|> for any file at the start and end of examination (see Guidelines for Examination in the EPO, C-IV, 7.1).
Under Article 139(2) EPC, a national patent application and a national patent in a contracting state have with regard to a European patent designating that contracting state the same prior right effect as if the European patent were a national patent. This refers to national applications of one or more states designated in the European application of which the filing dates are prior to the filing or priority date of the European application and which were published as national applications or patents on or after that date.
Earlier national rights are not included in the state of the art for the purposes of the EPO examination for patentability (Article 54 EPC). However, under Article 139(2) EPC, after the European patent has been granted earlier national rights can be invoked as a ground for revocation in national proceedings. Therefore, applicants can file separate sets of claims for countries in which earlier national rights are found (Rule 138 EPC).
The Unitary Patent system is expected to start at the beginning of 2023. A European patent with unitary effect ("Unitary Patent") is a European patent that is granted by the EPO under the rules and procedures of the EPC and given, at the patent proprietor's request, unitary effect for the territory of those EU member states that are participating in the enhanced co-operation in the creation of Unitary Patent protection and have ratified the Agreement on a Unified Patent Court (UPCA). To be eligible for the registration of unitary effect, the European patent must have been granted with the same set of claims in respect of all the 25 participating member states (see Article 3(1) of Regulation (EU) No. 1257/2012).
From 1 September 2022, the EPO will assist applicants in their decisions whether to file separate sets of claims by providing them with non-binding information, in a communication under Rule 71(3) EPC, about earlier national rights that were found to be prima facie relevant. Since the service is not a requirement under the EPC but an extra quality measure provided by the EPO free of charge to users, applicants are reminded of their responsibility to make in-depth assessments of earlier national rights and the need to file separate sets of claims (see Guidelines for Examination in the EPO, G-IV, 6).
It is noted that this new service will be carried out for all applications in respect of which the examiner triggered a communication under Rule 71(3) EPC on or after 1 September 2022. Please note, however, that in the transitional phase, internal processing times between the triggering and the despatch of that communication mean that the service will not necessarily cover all applications for which a communication under Rule 71(3) EPC is despatched on or after 1 September 2022. If a top-up search for earlier national rights has been carried out, along with an assessment of their prima facie relevance, the communication under Rule 71(3) EPC will expressly indicate so.
For further information, see also the FAQ "What are the requirements for obtaining a European patent with unitary effect (Unitary Patent)?" | country where they take effect. This can be a complex and potentially very costly process: validation requirements differ between countries and can lead to high direct and indirect costs, including translation costs, validation fees (i.e. fees due in some countries for publication of the translations) and associated representation costs, such as the attorney fees charged for the validation and administration of the patent (i.e. payment of national renewal fees). These costs can be considerable and depend on the number of countries where the patent proprietor wishes to validate the European patent.
The Unitary Patent removes the need for these complex and costly national validation procedures. The EPO acts as a one-stop-shop, allowing for a simple registration of a Unitary Patent for the territory of up to 25 countries.
For further details, please see the Unitary Patent Guide.
What tasks have been entrusted to the EPO by the 25 Member States participating in the Unitary Patent system?
Under EU Regulation No 1257/2012 on the creation of Unitary Patent protection, the participating Member States have entrusted the EPO with the following tasks:
receiving and examining requests for unitary effect
registering unitary effect
publishing translations during the transitional period
setting up and maintaining a new "Register for Unitary Patent Protection" containing entries on transfer, licensing, lapse, limitation or revocation of Unitary Patents
collecting annual renewal fees for Unitary Patents
distributing a share of the annual renewal fees to the participating Member States
administering the compensation scheme to support certain applicants (see also "Are there any reductions for small entities, such as SMEs, start-ups and universities?").
EPO decisions on Unitary Patents will be taken by a new Unitary Patent Division set up under Article 143(2) EPC. Decisions of the Unitary Patent Division can be appealed to the Unified Patent Court.
Start date of the new system
When will the Unitary Patent system start?
The Unitary Patent system is expected to start on 1 June 2023, once the necessary ratification procedures have been finalised by the required number of EU Member States.
The Unitary Patent system is inextricably linked to the creation of the Unified Patent Court, which will have jurisdiction over Unitary Patents and "classic" European patents: the two EU regulations setting up the Unitary Patent (Regulations (EU) No 1257/2012 and (EU) No 1260/2012) will apply as from the date of entry into force of the Agreement on a Unified Patent Court. This will be the first day of the fourth month after Germany deposits its instrument ratifying the agreement.
The secondary legislation on the Unitary Patent, in particular the Rules relating to Unitary Patent Protection, which formally entrust the EPO with the administration of the Unitary Patent, and the Rules relating to Fees for Unitary Patent Protection, will also enter into force on that date.
Territorial scope of a Unitary Patent and possible combination with other patents
What is the territorial scope of a Unitary Patent?
The geographical scope of the Unitary Patent will eventually cover all the 25 EU Member States that have joined the enhanced cooperation in the creation of Unitary Patent protection. But to be covered by the Unitary Patent, a Member State must not only be participating in this enhanced cooperation but must also have ratified the Agreement on a Unified Patent Court (UPCA) when the Unitary Patent is registered. It is expected that at least 17 states will have done so when the new system starts.
The geographical scope of a given Unitary Patent will remain the same for its lifetime and will not be extended to those states that ratify the UPCA after its unitary effect has been registered.
Can I combine the routes to patent protection in Europe?
A Unitary Patent offers an additional option for patent protection in Europe, available alongside the two existing options, namely the national route or a "classic" European patent. Those preferring to seek protection in individual EPC contracting states can still file patent applications with those states' national patent offices, and it also remains possible to validate a European patent in one or more EPC contracting states.
Moreover, a Unitary Patent can be combined with a "classic" European patent: it is possible to have a European patent registered as a Unitary Patent and additionally validate that European patent in the other EPC contracting states whose territories are not covered by the Unitary Patent. However, it is not possible to have double protection of an invention by a classic European patent and a Unitary Patent in the states covered by the Unitary Patent.
Costs of a Unitary Patent and reductions for small entities
The request for unitary effect is entirely free of charge, i.e. no filing, examination or registration fees are payable to the EPO for this.
The renewal fee for maintaining a Unitary Patent is set at a very attractive and business-friendly level. The total cost of renewal fees over the first ten years, which is the average lifetime of a European patent, will be less than EUR 5 000.
A comparison of the fees and indirect costs shows that the overall cost of a Unitary Patent is significantly lower than the cost currently incurred in validating and maintaining a classic European patent in four countries.
The full cost-saving potential of a Unitary Patent becomes clear when the savings from its simplified administration are also factored into the equation. In today's fragmented post-grant phase, different renewal fees of different amounts must be paid in different currencies to different national patent offices, which also have different legal requirements, especially in terms of time limits. For the Unitary Patent, there is just a single renewal fee payable centrally to the EPO in a single currency (euro) and via a standardised procedure with one deadline and no obligation to use a representative.
What is more, SMEs are eligible for compensation of EUR 500 for the costs of filing a translation of their initial patent application into one of the three official languages at the EPO.
Are there any reductions for small entities, such as SMEs, start-ups and universities?
Yes, a compensation scheme is in place to cover the costs of translating the application in the pre‑grant phase for individuals (natural persons), SMEs, non-profit organisations, universities and public research organisations. To be eligible for compensation, these entities must have their residence or principal place of business in an EU member state and must have filed the European patent application or Euro-PCT application leading to their Unitary Patent in an official EU language other than English, French or German.
However, compensation is granted only if expressly requested by the patent proprietor. The request for compensation must be filed together with the request for unitary effect. It must contain a declaration that the proprietor is a natural person or one of the entities mentioned above. The compensation – set at EUR 500 – complements the reduction in filing and examination fees already available when a European patent application and request for examination are filed in a language of an EPC contracting state other than English, French or German (Rule 6(3) EPC). For further details, please see the Unitary Patent Guide.
Besides this compensation scheme, the Unitary Patent system offers a range of other benefits for applicants with limited resources, such as SMEs, start-ups and universities. Many small entities today tend to rely on national patents. As a result, they often end up with no effective protection of their inventions in Europe at all or with protection only in a very small number of countries. The Unitary Patent system dismantles the bureaucratic and financial hurdles these small entities face in entering the EU market with their invention. A Unitary Patent offers broad and uniform territorial protection together with a business-friendly level of renewal fees. It eliminates the need to comply with validation requirements in each of the participating Member States and the high costs associated with this. These costs can be considerable, especially where a European patent is validated in several participating Member States, and typically include translation costs incurred for validations and the publication fees payable to the various national patent offices, as well as the fees charged by local attorneys or other service providers. By contrast, there is no need to retain different local attorneys, agents or specialised service providers for a Unitary Patent. On the cost benefits of the Unitary Patent, see also "What does it cost?" and the EPO website.
Moreover, proprietors of a classic European patent may have to litigate in parallel in all countries where it is validated. Such multi-forum litigation is expensive and complex and can give rise to legal uncertainty. As a court common to the participating Member States, the Unified Patent Court centralises the litigation for both Unitary Patents and classic European patents, which not only reduces the associated costs for the parties but also facilitates the development of consistent case law and so ensures greater legal certainty. For more information on the benefits for small entities in terms of the costs incurred before the UPC, please refer to its website.
Requesting a Unitary Patent
What are the requirements for obtaining a European patent with unitary effect (Unitary Patent)?
Before unitary effect can be registered by the EPO, the applicant must first obtain a European patent. A European patent application must therefore be filed and processed under the EPC in the same way as today.
In order to be eligible for registration as a Unitary Patent, the European patent must have been granted with the same set of claims in respect of all the 25 participating Member States. This condition must be met irrespective of whether all these states will in fact be covered by the Unitary Patent. It is therefore important not to withdraw the designation of any of the 25 participating Member States because this would rule out obtaining a Unitary Patent. Moreover, the European patent should not contain a different set of claims for any of the participating Member States, as this too would prevent the EPO from registering a Unitary Patent.
Once a European patent has been granted, the proprietor must file a "request for unitary effect" at the EPO to obtain a Unitary Patent. The request must be filed in writing – which includes filing by online means – in the language of proceedings no later than one month after the date of publication of the mention of the grant in the European Patent Bulletin. The request for unitary effect must also contain a translation of the European patent (see also "Are there any translation requirements when requesting unitary effect?" for further details).
The EPO recommends using Form 7000 to file the request.
How should I file the request for unitary effect?
The request for unitary effect (Form 7000) should preferably be filed online. The EPO offers three ways to file Form 7000 online:
Online Filing
Online Filing 2.0
Web-Form Filing
In Online Filing and Online Filing 2.0, Form 7000 is integrated, enabling the entry of the information required for the request for unitary effect via several tabs. With Web-Form Filing you can upload an already filled-out PDF version of Form 7000.
The request for unitary effect and any subsequently filed related documents should not be filed as an attachment to Form 1038.
More information on filing Form 7000 via Online Filing, Online Filing 2.0 and Web-Form Filing:
Online Filing: Make sure you have downloaded the latest Online Filing software (version 5). Then, in Online Filing, select Form 7000. If you wish to submit a further document related to your request, select Form 7038 and attach the document.
Online Filing 2.0: Make sure your administrator has given you the rights to draft, sign and/or send Forms 7000 and 7038 under Administration à Access rights / permissions. Then go to Start a procedure, select proprietor or representative as the role and choose Form 7000. If you wish to submit a further document related to your request, select Form 7038 and attach the document.
Web-Form Filing: Download Form 7000 and read the explanatory notes carefully before completing it. Then, to file the form in Web-Form Filing, under Filing type select 7000 - Request for unitary effect. If you wish to submit a further document related to your request, select 7038 - Subsequent filed documents as the filing type.
What can I do if miss the one-month period for filing a request for unitary effect?
If, in spite of taking all due care required by the circumstances, you do not meet the period for filing a request for unitary effect – that is, one month after publication of the mention of the grant of the European patent in the European Patent Bulletin (see Rule 6(1) of the Rules relating to Unitary Patent Protection (UPR)) – you can request re-establishment of rights in respect of this one‑month period (see Rule 22(1) UPR). However, your request for re-establishment must be filed within two months of expiry of the one-month period (see Rule 22(2) UPR), and you must also file the request for unitary effect within the same two-month period (Rule 22(3) UPR). You must also pay the prescribed fee.
When and for which European patents can a Unitary Patent be requested and are there any transitional measures?
A Unitary Patent may be requested for any European patent granted on or after the date of application of Regulations (EU) No 1257/2012 and (EU) No 1260/2012. These two regulations will apply from the date of entry into force of the Agreement on a Unified Patent Court (UPCA). The EPO will announce this date on its website.
To encourage early uptake of the Unitary Patent, the EPO has introduced two transitional measures for users.
Early request for unitary effect: this enables applicants to file a request for unitary effect before the start of the Unitary Patent system, which will allow the EPO to register unitary effect immediately when it starts, provided all the requirements under the Rules relating to Unitary Patent Protection are met.
Request for a delay in issuing the decision to grant a European patent: applicants can make this request after receiving a communication under Rule 71(3) EPC from the EPO ("intention to grant") and before approving the text intended for grant. This will ensure that the mention of the grant of the European patent is published in the European Patent Bulletin on or immediately after the date the Unitary Patent system starts and so prevent applicants from missing out on the opportunity to obtain a Unitary Patent in the transitional phase.
These options apply to European patent applications that have reached the final stage of the grant procedure and will become available, ahead of the entry into operation of the Unitary Patent system, from 1 January 2023.
Detailed explanations and some examples of how these two transitional measures will work can be found here.
Will a patent document be issued for a Unitary Patent?
No additional documents beyond the European patent specification published by the EPO under the EPC will be published for a Unitary Patent. However, Unitary Patent proprietors will be sent a certificate once unitary effect has been registered.
In Online Filing 2.0 (OLF 2.0), it says under Access rights/permissions that the forms associated with the proprietor are not available to the representative. Can the representative still file forms on behalf of the proprietor?
Representatives can file forms on behalf of a proprietor in OLF 2.0 by selecting "proprietor" when starting the procedure and then adding their own details in the "parties" section of the form.
When the request for unitary effect is finalised, Online Filing 2.0 (OLF 2.0) generates an XML file. Is it possible to automatically upload an XML with the required information?
Neither Online Filing (OLF) nor OLF 2.0 supports XML filings (i.e. attaching the form as an XML). However, the systems support the importing of packages. Therefore, if the package is constructed with a Patent Management System (PMS) gateway and it meets the standards and requirements, it can be imported into OLF and OLF 2.0.
The EPO will provide the technical documentation on the PMS gateway in good time at
epo.org/applying/online-services/online-filing/interface.html.
Do I need a professional representative to file a request for unitary effect?
The rules on representation are the same as apply under the EPC. Patent proprietors who have their residence or principal place of business in an EPC contracting state may act on their own behalf in proceedings before the EPO with respect to the Unitary Patent.
Patent proprietors who do not have a residence or a principal place of business in an EPC contracting state must appoint a representative and act through them in all EPO proceedings concerning their Unitary Patent, including the procedural act of requesting unitary effect (see Rule 20(1) and (2)(l) and (3) of the Rules relating to Unitary Patent Protection). However, compulsory representation does not apply to the payment of fees (Article 6 of the Rules relating to Fees for Unitary Patent Protection).
For more details, please see the Unitary Patent Guide.
Does a representative need a separate authorisation to act in procedures relating to the Unitary Patent before the EPO?
The decision of the President of the EPO dated 12 July 2007 on the filing of authorisations (Special edition No. 3, OJ EPO 2007, L.1.) will also apply to the procedures relating to the Unitary Patent (Rule 20(2)(l) UPR in conjunction with Rule 152(1) EPC). Therefore, if an authorisation is required under that decision, it needs to cover proceedings relating to a Unitary Patent. An authorisation issued for all proceedings established by the EPC will not automatically cover proceedings relating to a Unitary Patent. A separate checkbox has therefore been added to Form 1003 (individual authorisation) and Form 1004 (general authorisation) which can be used to issue authorisation for all proceedings relating to a Unitary Patent. There will also be two new forms – 7003 and 7004 – which can be used, respectively, to issue an individual and a general authorisation that applies only to a Unitary Patent. When filing Form 7000 (request for unitary effect), it is possible simply to refer to a previously filed individual or general authorisation if it also covers proceedings relating to Unitary Patents. Authorisations filed using EPO Form 1003 11.11 or 1004 09.11 before the entry into force of the Unitary Patent system will not fulfil this requirement.
The new forms 7003 and 7004 will be made available when the Unitary Patent System enters into force.
Are there any translation requirements when requesting unitary effect?
During a transitional period, a request for unitary effect must be accompanied by a translation of the European patent as follows:
where the language of the proceedings is French or German, a full translation of the specification of the European patent into English; or
where the language of the proceedings is English, a full translation of the specification of the European patent into any other official language of the European Union.
In accordance with the requirements in Regulations (EU) No 1257/2012 and (EU) No 1260/2012 and in Rule 6(2)(d) of the Rules relating to Unitary Patent Protection, the EPO checks whether the translation has been filed together with the request for unitary effect. If not, it will give you another opportunity to file it within a non‑extendable period of one month. The translation does not have to be certified and the EPO does not check its accuracy as it has no legal effect and is for information purposes only. Nevertheless, according to Recital 12 of Regulation (EU) No 1260/2012, such translations should not be carried out by automated means.
Filing of opt-outs
Is it possible to file a notification concerning an opt-out from the competence of the Unified Patent Court with the EPO?
No, notification of an opt-out from the competence of the Unified Patent Court can only be filed with the Unified Patent Court. It cannot be filed with the EPO.
Register for Unitary Patent Protection
Is there a specific register for the Unitary Patent and what does it contain?
Yes. A Register for Unitary Patent Protection has been set up as an integral but special, i.e. dedicated, part of the European Patent Register already kept by the EPO under Article 127 EPC. For reasons of legal certainty and transparency for users, the Register for Unitary Patent Protection has the same basic structure and functionality as the European Patent Register, but there are some new panel views for the Unitary Patent.
The Register for Unitary Patent Protection contains all the entries expressly listed in Regulation (EU) No 1257/2012. These include, in particular, the fact that unitary effect has been registered and the date of its registration, as well as other procedural information, such as the date of filing of the request for unitary effect for the European patent, the participating Member States in which the Unitary Patent has effect and the date of filing – and, if applicable, the date of any withdrawal – of a statement on licences of rights. Data on the payment of renewal fees for Unitary Patents and information on any decisions on the validity of Unitary Patents taken by the Unified Patent Court are also shown. For a full list of the entries, see Rule 16(1) of the Rules relating to Unitary Patent Protection.
Will the European Patent Register show any opt-outs from the competence of the Unified Patent Court?
Yes, as of the date of entry into force of the Agreement on a Unified Patent Court, the European Patent Register will show whether a European patent has been opted out of the exclusive competence of the Unified Patent Court.
Does the Register for Unitary Patent Protection display any information about the applicant's residence/principal place of business and place of business on the date of filing the European patent application within the meaning of Article 7 Regulation (EU) No 1257/2012 (European patent with unitary effect as an object of property)?
Article 7(1) Regulation (EU) No 1257/2012 ("Treating a European patent with unitary effect as a national patent") states: "a European patent with unitary effect as an object of property shall be treated in its entirety and in all the participating Member States as a national patent of the participating Member State in which that patent has unitary effect and in which, according to the European Patent Register:
(a) the applicant had his residence or principal place of business on the date of filing of the application for the European patent; or
(b) where point (a) does not apply, the applicant had a place of business on the date of filing of the application for the European patent."
Residence or principal place of business on the date of filing (Article 7(1)(a) Regulation No 1257/2012) in the Register for Unitary Patent Protection (Rule 16(1)(x) UPR)
The request for grant of a European patent is to be filed using a form drawn up by the European Patent Office (EPO Form 1001, see Rule 41(1) EPC). For international applications under the PCT, the request must be made using Form PCT/RO/101 (see Rule 3.1 PCT). Whereas EPO Form 1001 requires applicants to indicate their residence or principal place of business (see Rule 41(2)(c) EPC), Form PCT/RO/101 requires them to indicate their residence (see Rule 4.5(c) PCT). In order to display the residence or principal place of business on the date of filing in the Register for Unitary Patent Protection, the EPO will provide a link to EPO Form 1001 in the case of a European patent application and a link to Form PCT/RO/101 in the case of a Euro-PCT application.
Place of business on the date of filing (Article 7(1)(b) Regulation No 1257/2012) in the Register for Unitary Patent Protection (Rule 16(1)(w) UPR)
A place of business on the date of filing the European patent application within the meaning of Article 7(1)(b) Regulation (EU) No 1257/2012 (see Rule 16(1)(w) UPR) can be voluntarily indicated together with the request for unitary effect.
It can prove useful to have an entry in the Register for Unitary Patent Protection (which is an integral part of the European Patent Register) showing "a place of business on the date of filing" (see Rule 16(1)(w) UPR) in cases where an applicant, when filing a European patent application or international application under the PCT designating or electing the EPO (Euro-PCT application), did not have a residence or principal place of business in one of the participating Member States within the meaning of Article 7(1)(a) Regulation (EU) No 1257/2012, for example where this residence or principal place of business was in the United States of America or Switzerland (see Rule 16(1)(x) UPR).
Providing information on such a "place of business on the date of filing" is voluntary. However, it can only be provided together with the request for unitary effect (Rule 16(1)(w) UPR). If, in the case described above, no information concerning such a place of business is provided together with the request, German law will apply with regard to the treatment of the European patent with unitary effect as an object of property pursuant to Article 7(3) Regulation (EU) No 1257/2012.
Please see also the Unitary Patent Guide.
Will there be any specific code in the Register for Unitary Patent Protection or in the European Patent Bulletin?
Unitary Patents will be assigned a specific identifier (the identifier "C0") in the Register for Unitary Patent Protection, the European Patent Bulletin and in the data sets provided by the EPO, making it easier to identify them through the EPO's patent information products and services, e.g. Espacenet and Global Patent Index.
Top-up search for earlier national rights
Is the EPO carrying out a search covering national earlier rights?
From 1 September 2022, the EPO will carry out systematic top-up searches to find earlier national rights in all EPC contracting states and assess their prima facie relevance. The new service will be available free of charge and will not require a request from the applicant.
EPO examiners carry out a search for any additional conflicting European applications falling within the area defined by Article 54(3) EPC unless this was already covered by the European search report. In addition to retrieving Article 54(3) documents which were not available at the time of the initial search, the EPO's top-up search takes into consideration, inter alia, potentially relevant prior art cited by other patent offices on applications belonging to the same patent family as the application under examination at the EPO, and therefore needs to be performed | 5,822 |
As we British beauty fans know all too well, sometimes it can be a while before hot new products from the States make their way across the pond. In recent years, Pat McGrath Labs, Glossier, Drunk Elephant, CeraVe are just a few that we've had to patiently wait for. So I'm bragging a little when I tell you that Marie Reynolds's new mask Dermabiome (£57) can't legally be shipped to the U.S.
Reynolds is a holistic facialist who has debuted a complete skincare and supplement line this week. When I met with hrt last month, she walked me through her new collection, and it's clear that for her, good skin is all about a healthy gut and microflora. At the core of her new range are supplements that tackle issues inside and out. There are tablets to balance yeast and thyroid function, calm inflammation and boost collagen. Alongside the supplements is a range of skincare products all about boosting the skin's healthy bacteria.
What's key to know when shopping this new range is that as well as the microflora in our gut (which is made up of both good and bad bacteria), we also have bacteria on our skin. Dermabiome contains probiotics (the good bacteria that keeps skin protected and healthy) as well as prebiotics to feed microflora. Keep scrolling to find out more about the mask and to see it in action.
Dermabiome comes in powder form, and you simply mix with water to form a paste, applying it to the face and neck and leaving on for 15 minutes before removing. It's packed with various skin-boosting strains of probiotics, as well as prebiotics and phytonutrients like hemp protein, beetroot, alfalfa, spirulina and green tea extract. The ingredient list basically reads like a fancy juice recipe (healthy indeed).
Used a couple of times a week, the mask works to feed the skin and create the ideal environment for that healthy bacteria to flourish. Whatever skin issues you're dealing with, this mask will be a great addition. Even if you have clear skin, it has a brilliant brightening, rejuvenating effect on the complexion. I will warn you, though: It smells as "healthy" as its<|fim_middle|> use mine in the bath on Sunday night. I applied it for the allotted minutes, and straight away my skin looked calmer and even. In the days that followed, my skin remained happy—no blemishes or redness. Quite remarkable, as I'd had an allergic reaction the week previous, and had been dealing with residual redness and small bumps across my face. This mask slots into any skincare routine. You can follow with Marie Reynolds's products or your own.
Think of it as a healthy bowl of vegetables for your face. After all, sometimes we all crave some goodness inside and out.
Next up, these are the serious skincare products our readers buy. | ingredient list suggests. But what it lacks in sensory joy it makes up for in efficacy, and that's where it counts.
It's a little messy when it comes to the mixing part, so I | 40 |
An Evening of Boxing
You're invited...
We're very excited to be the chosen charity at the Crux Boxing Ball on 7 February 2019! The evening will include a champagne reception, dinner, live auction hosted by Jonny Gould and 5 matches between amateur boxers in cooperation with the Army Boxing Association.
If you're interested in taking a table at this event, please contact Viveca Johnstone at Walking With The Wounded on viveca@wwtw.org.uk or 01263 863902. Table prices start from £3,000.
Top fundraisers from Walking Home For Christmas 2019
See the stories and the supporters who stepped out and raised more than £100k
Join the Walking With The Wounded Team at the Great North Run
Great North Run Ballot opens early January, don't forget to enter!
Meet the WWTW<|fim_middle|> in the event on behalf of the charity and this year we have our biggest team yet! In our latest interview, Josh Hignell shares some thoughts on why he is taking part and how he is preparing for the race:
Walking Home For Christmas: Bold.Brave.Memorable - Written by Andy Sloan.
The majority of people who read this will not be taking part in Walking With The Wounded's annual Walking Home For Christmas campaign. Why? Because although it's free to sign up, it requires a bit more commitment, a bit more organisation and a bit more oomph to line up a few friends, ask for donations and step outside your door when it is wet and wild outside and you have a list of jobs to do before Christmas longer than your legs. We like being comfortable.
The Great North Walk
Walking With The Wounded ('WWTW') CEO, Edward Parker and a team of veterans are getting ready to set off on a 122 mile trek (almost the equivalent of 5 marathons) from the WWTW North East Hub in Gateshead Civic Centre to the North West Hub based in Canada Street, Manchester. This is in aid of Walking Home For Christmas. The campaign supports ex-servicemen and women who are alone this Christmas. | MdS Team 2020 - Josh Hignell
The Marathon des Sables (MdS) is a grueling race across the Sahara Desert, and it attracts thousands of runners every year. Over the years, WWTW has invited different teams to take part | 56 |
The ALISE 2018 Annual Conference will be held at The Westin Westminster Hotel.
Ideally situated between Denver and Boulder, The Westin Westminster serves as a gateway to these dynamic cities and astonishing natural attractions.
You can make, modify and cancel hotel reservations online, as well as take advantage of any room upgrades, amenities or other services offered by the hotel.
Should you require assistance making your reservation, you can contact the Westin at (303) 410-5000 or online. Please reference "ALISE 2018 Annual Conference."
The cut-off date to reserve your room in the ALISE room block is Monday, January 22 at 5:00 pm.
Rates do not include applicable state and<|fim_middle|> Taxi service through Denver Yellow Cab is readily available at Union Station. | local taxes, currently 8.35%.
The Westin Westminster will offer complimentary in-room Internet for all ALISE guests! Please ask for your WiFi passcode card and access instructions upon check-in.
To cancel or adjust reservations, contact the hotel directly.
2018 ALISE Conference attendees receive a discounted overnight parking rate of $5 per night.
Fee: Approximately 75 - 90 USD; one-way, up to four people.
About: Taxis are readily available outside baggage claim or can be arranged in advance. Please keep the hotel address on hand for the driver.
Fee: 84 USD; one-way; up to three people.
About: SuperShuttle service can be booked in advance or in-person at baggage claim. Please be aware that long lines in baggage claim can extend the wait time for tickets. SuperShuttle offers ride sharing as well as discounted group pricing.
Fee: 80 USD; one-way, plus gratuity.
About: Private car service is available to and from Denver International Airport through Shah's Limo and Car Service.
Fee: Rates vary based on driver availability and demand. Rates will be provided prior to pick-up.
About: Ride-sharing apps such as Uber and Lyft provide swift transportation to/from the airport. Guests can request a ride on-demand by downloading the apps on their smartphones.
The Regional Transportation District (RTD) provides a number of light rail and bus rapid transit options to and from downtown Denver, with a stop right by the hotel. The Westin Westminster provides a complimentary shuttle within a 5-mile radius. Be sure to call the hotel to arrange. Taxis, private car service, and shuttle buses are also convenient options for transportation to the hotel.
Fee: Approximately 35 - 40 USD; one-way.
About: | 367 |
Killick Hinds (<|fim_middle|>)
21st-century American guitarists | born 1972) of Athens, Georgia is active as a composer, performer, and promoter of a wide range of music. He plays quartertone electric guitar, as well as Big Red harp guitar and the h'arpeggione, an 18-stringed upright acoustic instrument with sympathetic strings. Both instruments were built by Fred Carlson. Equally influenced by improvisational music and "composed" sounds, Killick's style blends primitive folk, heavy metal, and sacred music from around the world. Killick has played with improvisers including Susan Alcorn, Liz Allbee, Susie Allen, Brent Bagwell, Colin Bragg, Jeff Crouch, Chris Cutler, Jeremiah Cymerman, Brann Dailor, Ernesto Diaz-Infante, Lisle Ellis, Tony Evans, Drew Gardner, the Georgia Guitar Quartet, Vinny Golia, Frank Gratkowski, Mary Halvorson, Blake Helton, Carl Ludwig Huebsch, Henry Kaiser, Ben Kennedy, Harald Kimmig, Habib Koité, Peter Kowald, Craig Lieske, Marshall Marrotte, Jeff McLeod, Tatsuya Nakatani, Larry Ochs, Brian Osborne, Ravi Padmanabha, Dennis Palmer, Dave Rempis, Blaise Siwula, Carl Smith, Bob Stagner, Sándor Szabó, Ken Vandermark, Matthew Welch, and Eric Zinman.
Killick started Sol Ponticello Records in 2001, and he released a solo H'arpeggione cover version of Slayer's Reign in Blood in 2005.
Killick married Delene Porter in Key West, Florida, on August 9, 2003.
H'arpeggione
The H'arpeggione is an instrument built by Fred Carlson for Killick Hinds. It is an electric upright quartertone-fretted six-string instrument tuned from a contrabass A♭ up to E♭ (half-step below the high E on the guitar). The H'arpeggione also has 12 resonating sympathetic strings which run through the neck and emerge over the body and run to a separate buzzing bridge. The body is larger than an acoustic guitar, with an arched fingerboard and a bridge for bowing or plucking, a spike for upright playing position, and the top of (recycled) redwood.
References
External links
Killick
Spotlight Killick Hinds Guitar Moderne, March 2017.
Extreme Guitar Guitar Player, October 2010.
Free Radical Athens Banner-Herald, September 2009.
"Homemade-Instrument-alists: Killick," Sweet Pea, 2008.
1972 births
Living people
Musicians from Athens, Georgia
Songwriters from Athens, Georgia
Guitarists from Georgia (U.S. state | 608 |
Choosing the USA The USA has the world's largest international student population, with nearly 700,000 students choosing to broaden their education and life experience in the United States. Nearly 4% of all students enrolled in higher-level education are international students, and the numbers are growing. From the mid-1950's, when international student enrollment was only just reaching 35,000, international education in the USA has come a long way.
We look forward to helping students who, like you, are considering continuing your education in the United States. You will find all of the tools you need to compile your necessary research in deciding if the United States is the best place for you – we have gathered valuable information on educational, social, cultural and economic aspects of studying in the U.S. There are many reasons that students like to come to the USA to<|fim_middle|> at the undergraduate and graduate level – learn more about what the USA has to offer an international student.
Students choose the Unites States as the place they wanted to broaden their experience and continue their education, making the U.S. the top choice over any other country in the world. But why do so many international students choose U.S. colleges and universities? Before you pack your bags, you should learn what the U.S. has to offer you. | study | 1 |
Home » Events » The People's Office Library Tour in Leyden
The People's Office Library Tour in Leyden
«<|fim_middle|> your behalf in the legislature, ask questions, and join in on the conversation about issues affecting your community.
Robertson Memorial Library
849 Greenfield Road
Leyden, MA 01301 + Google Map
The People's Office Library Tour in Northfield
The People's Office Library Tour in Wendell | The People's Office Library Tour in Northfield
Beyond Gun Laws: A Conversation about Keeping Our Community Safe and Preventing Violence »
Libraries are vital institutions in our communities. They serve as gathering places, educational and cultural resources, introductions to literacy, and so much more. To celebrate the central role libraries play in our communities, Senator Jo Comerford will be traveling to a library in each of the 24 cities and towns in her district from October to May.
Join Jo for an informal gathering at your local library to learn more about the work she's doing on | 117 |
We used Salesforce to be our CRM and Professional Services Automation (PSA) system. We custom<|fim_middle|> much.
Salesforce has been the single most valuable tool for us in tracking prospective students through a funnel, communicating with them across channels and tying together the rest of our marketing stack. We use the Higher Education Data Architecture platform on an Enterprise level instance of Salesforce through Salesforce's philanthropic Power of Us program. As a small, private religious institution of higher education, we need a CRM that allows us to customize contact profiles to an unusual degree, as well as automating basic tasks and integrating with our various other communication and tracking platforms. Salesforce offers us unparalleled customization and allows us to combine analytics on mass emails, texts and website visits from our automation platform with individual emails, SMS, notes and phone call logs. We can analyze data not just about locations and high schools, but also about churches and youth conferences. It's also a useful tool for communication, and has a terrific integration with Twilio for 1-to-1 SMS conversations. We've found that the learning curve on Salesforce is steep. We took care of onboarding, set-up and training ourselves in order to save money on the fees, and have regretted it. I would strongly recommend getting professional help to tailor the platform to your needs from the outset. Based on my experience, I would recommend Salesforce to anyone looking for a powerful CRM product. | -built the PSA, but the CRM piece was mostly Salesforce out-of-the-box. Ultimately, if you can figure how to keep your licensing and other add-in costs in check, then Salesforce can be the right tool for you. Otherwise, you may find what we found, which is that Salesforce's continual cost increases eventually cause the platform to lose its ROI. We ultimately switched from Salesforce to Microsoft Dynamics 365 after Salesforce continually and forcibly raised their costs beyond our ROI threshold. The system was functionally fine, but the annual costs had simply become too | 111 |
This website pretends to welcome you at the Faculty of Biology, therefore, on behalf of all the members of this community<|fim_middle|> biologists. | , I give you a very warm welcome. Our aim is to introduce ourselves as a educational and research centre adapted to the current times, dynamic, innovative and strategic, keeping our peculiarities and trying to improve our teaching and research quality levels.
The Faculty of Biology teaches specialised undergraduate studies and several Master's degrees related to biology. The Undergraduate Degree of Biology is focused on the professional preparation linked to life sciences, currently enjoying a high social demand. This faculty offers several Master's degrees for those undergraduates who want more specialization in the field of Biology, for example: Aquaculture, Advanced Biotechnology, Marine Biology, Neuroscience, Biological Sciences and the Master's degree in Teaching Training. Many of the students who apply for these degrees belong to this University, however there are also students who come from other universities, both national and foreign. These Master's degrees help them to improve their professional expectations.
Research is one of the fundamental pillars of the Faculty of Biology, and one of the reasons why it has gained prestige since its creation. The research groups of the faculty develop numerous projects at the highest level and give rise to a large number of doctoral theses that allow education to highly qualified researchers. The scientific activity is complemented by a variety of doctoral programs in the biology field, which are offered by the University of Vigo and, largely developed in our laboratories and research facilities.
To effectively fulfill the teaching and investigative function, the faculty has a large staff of specialised professors and technical administrative support staff, which along with the large amount of laboratories and classrooms are a high quality environment for the education of our students. In addition, students will find permanent tutorial support and a wide variety of extracurricular activities. All this responds to the conviction that university education must be full, facilitating the acquisition and consolidation of human values, the critical thinking and open- mindedness, ultimately, seeking our graduates to become better people. With the desire to go along through the path of continuous improvement, I encourage all the visitors of this website to feel part of our faculty, contributing with your suggestions in order to make us better every day.
Finally, I would like to point out that the Faculty of Biology has received a certification seal of quality from the Agency for Quality Assurance in the Galicia University System, which guarantees a standard in the education of our students, as well as the acquisition of competences that ease their professional future as | 481 |
There are several different options that you can explore in regards to cooking eggs. Whether you want standard options, or you want to look into getting something different, you'll find that opportunities for creative cooking abound in modern times. Consider the following 3 easy recipes that will help you move forward when looking at cooking for breakfast, or any time.
The first option that you'll want to look into is the easiest of all scrambled options. You can start with as little as 2 eggs or as many as half a dozen, depending on your tastes. You'll find this to be foolproof in a lot of ways. You'll start by getting a bowl and placing 2 eggs, cracked, into it. Then take a whisk or a fork and stir your eggs (beating them lightly) until the yolks are broken and you get a fine yellow color. After you've done this, get a pinch of salt and add it to your eggs.
The next step is simply to turn your stove on to medium heat, and add a teaspoon of oil to your pan. If you don't want to use oil, then utilize a small amount of margarine or butter. This is<|fim_middle|> You won't have a hard time with them if you take your time, and never put the heat too high. The higher the heat the worst your eggs will be.
Want to find out more about recipes for scrambled eggs, then visit Olivia Maria's site by clicking here to visit her blog on Recipes For Eggs. | something that is optional, depending on your pan. If you have more eggs, you'll need to add more oil or butter accordingly.
After your pan has been heated (remember medium heat), add your eggs to the pan and avoid the need to stir them right away. You'll see the eggs start to bubble lightly, but you want them to cook properly, so wait for around 30 seconds to a minute before you stir them. After that, stir them slightly, folding over the eggs on top of each other, but not too often. You want to make sure the eggs are properly cooked and have a yellowish/white color.
Another option that you'll want to look into has you focusing on adding to the eggs and cooking them differently. The second thing that you should do is follow the first few steps above, then add a ¼ cup of milk to your eggs. If you have more eggs, you can add more milk or cream. Adding milk or cream will give your eggs a more "creamy" texture. Follow the rest of the recipe accordingly, and to add a touch of flare, add cheese on top.
A second variation that you can look into when making scrambled eggs is to follow the aforementioned, but add your favorite lunchmeat to it. Ham, turkey, or anything you might have leftover can be added to your eggs to make a quick scramble. If you're not keen on that, you could always add some hot sauce to your preliminary egg mixture, and make a spicy concoction.
The above options are just 3 ways you can make scrambled eggs, from traditional to creamier and even spicy. You'll find that the variations work well, and are easily done. | 344 |
Cape Town, thanks to its mild climate and varied landscape featuring mountains, beaches and forests, is the ideal location to enjoy outdoor activities year-round.
Visitors are truly spoiled for choice, with something for every preference and level of fitness, from whale and dolphin watching, hiking, stand up paddling and kite surfing, to 'Scoo-touring' down Table Mountain, ziplining, paragliding and shark cage diving.
All these outdoor adventures can be arranged by our concierge team, who have given each of our recommended activities an 'Adrenalin Factor' rating from 1 to 10 - 10 being for 'extreme adrenalin junkies' only!
Apart from our mountain walks directly behind the hotel, South African National Parks offer a range of reserves and conservation areas in and around Cape Town with mapped-out walks, hikes and some of the most breathtaking scenery in South Africa.
Table Mountain National Park, Silvermine, Rhodes Memorial and the Constantia Greenbelt are a few examples of walks and paths available around the Peninsula.
Our concierges can recommend experienced guides who offer a wealth of knowledge and expertise on your mountain adventures.
The Western Cape is paradise for whale watchers, with at least 37 different species of whales and dolphins in the waters off South Africa.
Guided by the luminescent Karbonkelberg Marine Reserve, frequent whale and dolphin sightings from our Leopard Bar or Azure Restaurant are part of the guest experience at The Twelve Apostles. The reserve starts in the waters found directly in front of the hotel and stretches along the coast all the way to Hout Bay.
Whale-watching tours offer an exciting way to witness the gargantuan Southern Right whales that arrive in large numbers each season between June and November, to birth and care for their new-born calves. The best place for whale-watching is along the famous Whale Route, which runs alongside Gordon's Bay, Pringle Bay and Betty's Bay en route to Hermanus.
View the Mother City from a different perspective - with uninterrupted 365 degree views, a two-seat kayak is the perfect way to explore the Cape's abundant marine life and take in the spectacular views of Cape Town.
The 3-5km paddle along the Atlantic Seaboard departs from Three Anchor Bay and takes kayakers either to Clifton Beach or Granger Bay, with stunning views of Table Mountain and Lion's Head along the way.
From Clifton you might even spot The Twelve Apostles Hotel in the distance! Rent a kayak to go it alone, or join one of numerous guided tours.
Paddle Boarding, or 'SUP'ing' (Stand Up Paddling) is a big craze in Cape Town.
While it might look like a leisurely pastime, paddle boarding is no mean feat and actually provides a vigorous workout! The technique is fairly easy to master but longer sessions require a fair amount of stamina.
Introductory lessons are available on the canals of the V&A Waterfront, from where more experienced 'SUPers'<|fim_middle|> the Cape Peninsula are home to more than 100 caves, ranging in size from overhangs to deep fissures with underground tunnels – all requiring experienced guides.
Woodstock Cave is accessible via the upper contour path running along Table Mountain, offering phenomenal views of the city of Cape Town. Elephant's Eye Cave in the Constantiaberg is accessible from Tokai Forest or Silvermine Nature Reserve.
Peers Cave, a renowned discovery site for early man, can be accessed from Ou Kaapse Weg. The Kalk Bay Caves, Tatarus Cave and Boomslang Cave can all be found around the Kalk Bay area.
The Cape offers numerous spectacular scuba dive sites, several of which are located directly in front of our hotel. Sandy Cove is a sandy reef with a few rocks in a sheltered bay, making it perfect for beginner divers.
Strawberry Rock is located to the north of Sandy Cove and is home to around 70 Cape Fur Seals.
Justin's Caves is a rocky reef surrounded by a beautiful kelp forest, which includes 'caves' to swim through. The aquatic wildlife you can expect to see varies from small shoals of fish, to nudibranch colonies and mussels.
A vast amount of sponges, sea urchins, brightly coloured sea anemones and even some soft and hard corals can also be spotted during your underwater adventure.
Cape Town and the surrounding coastline boast several world-class surf spots and offer something for every level. The warmer waters on the False Bay side, with locations such as Muizenberg and Strand, are popular with both long and short boarders.
The Surfer's Corner at Muizenberg, a 30-minute drive from Cape Town's city centre, is popular with beginners thanks to gentle waves and a north-westerly wind direction which creates lean, long lines of waves. The typically icy Cape Peninsula water temperatures rise during the winter time, making the months of June, July and August ideal for a surf, albeit freezing once you leave the water - pop into the restaurants Knead or Tiger's Milk afterwards to warm up.
The Cape Town Zipline Tour at the private Silvermist Wine Estate on Constantia Nek is one of the longest aerial cable courses in Africa.
The exhilarating 2.3km aerial cable slide is the first of its kind to be located so close to Cape Town's CBD – a mere 20-minute drive - making it the perfect city adrenaline adventure.
Simply strap into the safety harness, take a deep breath, and soar through the air while taking in panoramic views of the Silvermist vineyards, Constantia Nek Valley and the back of the famous Twelve Apostles mountain range.
We may not be able to fly like a bird – but paragliding offers a glimpse of what it feels like to float high up in the sky, taking in the Cape Town panorama below.
Several official paragliding sites are located in and around the Mother City, including Lion's Head, Signal Hill, Sir Lowry's Pass, Hermanus, Franschhoek Pass, Dasklip Pass (Porterville) and Noordhoek.
The take-off point on Lion's Head is the closest to the city centre. Paragliding is weather-dependent, but with an average of 200 suitable days each year, chances are that you will be able to take flight!
The Cape Town is a kitesurf hot spot, thanks to warm weather conditions - and rather consistent wind!
There are several kitesurf locations dotted around the Peninsula, the most famous being Bloubergstrand on the West Coast of Table Bay, only 20 minutes from the centre of Cape Town and with awe-inspiring views of Table Mountain.
Bloubergstrand is driven by the Cape's infamous South-Eastern winds – no wonder kitesurfing is such a popular past time here.
Dolphin Beach marks the perfect launch pad from which to throw yourself onto the water and take off into the air, managing 10 - 30 knot winds in the process. Beginners can seek help from professional instructors. The main beach, Big Bay, hosts various prestigious kite surfing contests each year.
Coming face to face with a great white shark on a shark cage diving tour is undoubtedly one of the most adrenaline-fuelled experiences you can encounter in the Cape.
There are only an estimated 5000 great white sharks left in our oceans.
South Africa became the first country in the world to introduce great white shark conservation in 1991, and is the only country where it is relatively easy to see great white sharks - a boat ride to 'Shark Alley' near Gansbaai takes less than 20 minutes. The best time for viewing these magnificent predators is between June and September.
The thrill of skydiving is second to none – and where better to experience it than the magnificent setting of the Western Cape?
First you will set off on a scenic 25-minute flight, taking in Table Mountain, the city centre, and Table Bay harbour. Further to the south you will see False Bay, Hout Bay and the South Peninsula, as far as Cape Point. To the west, you will spot Robben Island and to the north, Langebaan Lagoon.
Then it's time to take a leap of faith with your instructor and launch yourself out the aircraft, for a once-in-a-lifetime tandem skydive! | can head out into the open water.
Boards can be rented for use on the canal or for the duration of your holiday.
The steep slopes of | 30 |
David Oyelowo will be honored with the Break<|fim_middle|>igan, Jeremy Renner and Jennifer Hudson have received the award. Cotillard, Hudson and Nyong'o would receive Oscars in the same year they were honored by PSIFF, with Huffman and Renner receiving nominations. | through Performance Award, Actor, at the 26th annual Palm Springs International Film Festival awards gala, the PSIFF announced Sunday.
The gala will be held Jan. 3 at the Palm Springs Convention center, hosted by Mary Hart. The fest runs Jan. 2-12.
Oyelowo is being feted for his performance as Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. in Ava DuVernay's "Selma." The film, which is garnering Oscar buzz, follows the three-month period in 1965 when King led a dangerous campaign to secure equal voting rights in the face of violent opposition. The march from Selma to Montgomery culminated in President Johnson signing the Voting Rights Act of 1965.
In past years, Lupita Nyong'o, Marion Cotillard, Felicity Huffman, Carey Mull | 172 |
A CLICK AWAY
Discover the latest art from emerging and established artists online
by DANA W. TODD
Anne Neely, Pulse, oil on canvas, 14″ x 11″
Even as a fresh-faced start-up in the online fine art marketplace, Amparo Art Gallery already has attracted artistic talent in three U.S. regions—the mid-Atlantic, where the company launched earlier this year, New England and the Southern region, which includes artwork developed in the Dallas area. This e-commerce marketplace, which exhibits original fine art from selected artists in each region, provides views of artwork in a variety of virtually staged environments to help buyers make better decisions about the right piece of art for their dining room, home office, bedroom or as a room's focal point.
"Our price point is attractive for young collectors," says Amparo CEO Mark Marotta. "Amparo curates a small group of artists and showcases selections of their highest-quality pieces on the marketplace. This curation ensures Amparo's online inventory is easy to navigate, especially for new collectors."
"We are not interested in being another online art catalog with 10,000 or more paintings," says Ben White of Amparo. "As a smaller marketplace, we are positioned so our artists can be more easily discovered. Generally, Amparo is focused on who the artists are and not on the category of artwork they produce. Our artists are producing high-quality work but many of them are lacking a platform. We give them that digital platform so they can spend more time in the studio working their creative processes and not building websites and handling<|fim_middle|> is not formally educated in fine art, his parents are collectors so he has been surrounded by art and regular museum visits throughout his life. Since the fine arts community took such a hit during the pandemic when galleries closed and exhibitions were canceled, Marotta has made it his mission to help the industry recover and thrive by connecting artists and arts patrons online through Amparo.
White is an arts administrator, with 15 years of experience as a performance musician, playing alto saxophone and bassoon in classical ensembles. When he met Marotta and realized their shared passion for arts advocacy, he decided to join Amparo, where a love of fine art and industry connections help both artists who need technical assistance with shipping, logistics and web development, and collectors who need an easy way to find new talent.
Ishra Mohaymen, Wet Streets and Dancing Lights, oil on canvas, 28″ x 28″
While partnering with artists, Amparo also provides expanded services and process automation through its industry partnerships. Artsy, for example, is a large blue-chip e-commerce marketplace that provides added visibility and wider distribution for increased sales by Amparo's artists, while ARTA provides white glove fulfillment, shipping and installation services for customers who purchase a piece through the marketplace.
Amparo's goal is to break the mold of online art sales by curating the highest-quality art from regional artists that patrons may not be able to find anywhere else. And while the company may expand into other areas, for the near future, its leadership is focusing on adding new artists originating from the New England, Southern and mid-Atlantic states. *
Dana W. Todd is a professional writer specializing in interior design, real estate, luxury homebuilding, landscape design, architecture and art.
AMPARO ART GALLERY | other technical logistics of selling artwork."
Ishra Mohaymen, Facing the Unknown, oil on canvas, 48″ x 24″
In addition to bringing emerging artists to the attention of collectors, Amparo also represents a roster of established artists who sell selected works of art on the marketplace. Claire Giblin is one such artist; she has an extensive background as a curator and appraiser and paints large-format post-war and abstract artwork, which she has also exhibited internationally. "Mark and I had an initial conversation by phone, and he was candid and honest about his founding of Amparo and his ideas for launch and expansion," she says. "I later curated and exhibited at Anita Shapolsky Art Foundation in Jim Thorpe [Pennsylvania]. The exhibit opened on the hottest day in July, and Mark came to see the show and meet me in person. I was very impressed with his commitment and knew I wanted to support this new venture and to work together toward success."
Ishra Mohaymen, She Only Exists in Their Gossip, oil on canvas, 24″ x 18″
Marotta and White have art backgrounds of their own. Marotta says although he | 247 |
Boston's Unveils New Thin Crust Pizzas in Summer Menu
Staying true to its roots, Boston's Pizza Restaurant & Sports Bar (Boston's), announced the launch of its summer menu featuring thin crust gourmet pizzas built on the dough the brand has been making from scratch for more<|fim_middle|>ye! Blackberry Mule, a modern mule featuring whiskey combined with ginger beer and a berry puree topped with fresh blackberries as well as ice-cold Coronaritas made with tequila, Cointreau, premium margarita mix and Corona.
Boston's Pizza Restaurant and Sports Bar's U.S. operations are based in Dallas, and currently has 23 locations in 16 states. The company's sister brand, Boston Pizza, has over 400 locations throughout Canada and is widely- recognized as the No. 1 casual dining brand in the country.
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LED displays, fixed-digit & virtual scoreboards, gas price signs & digital (more) | than 50 years. From May 21 through August 12, Boston's guests can enjoy three of Boston's all-new light, thin crust pizza creations: Skinny Carnivore, Potato Bianca and Pizza Bella.
As America's Sports Restaurant, Boston's, offers guests a contemporary sit-down dining atmosphere and a separate sports bar all under one roof, making it the perfect gathering place for families and fans alike. Just in time for summer, Boston's has expanded its pizza offerings incorporating fresh, flavorful artisanal ingredients such as prosciutto, sriracha and more. Guests can now enjoy these light, farm-fresh creations for a limited time:
Skinny Carnivore: Genoa salami and aged prosciutto on top of Tabasco-Sriracha sauce with mozzarella, roasted cherry tomatoes, garlic, sesame seeds and freshly grated Parmesan.
Potato Bianca: Sliced white potatoes, caramelized onions, goat cheese, honey, mozzarella, sesame seeds and Boston's blend of pizza spices.
Pizza Bella: Boston's signature pizza sauce topped with aged prosciutto, Parmesan, garlic and mozzarella. Topped with lemon vinaigrette arugula and freshly grated Parmesan.
"Boston's is famous for gourmet pizzas which are made-from-scratch with the freshest ingredients. It only makes sense that we add to our renowned pizza menu with unique, thin crust options just in time for the warm summer months," says Katie Borger, Senior Director of Marketing at Boston's. "The new gourmet pizzas make Boston's the perfect summertime escape for families and fans alike."
In addition to its artisanal thin crust pizzas, Boston's is featuring refreshing summertime cocktails such as the High West Double R | 352 |
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12/23/2022 • no comments
How Much Should We Really Care About "Signal Gate"?
It's just never-ending, isn't it? Lately, it seems like Green Bay Packers fans have to deal with some kind of Aaron Rodgers story to create speculation or rumors once every 3 weeks or so. Sometimes it's an off-the-field subject and sometimes it's on the field. When these stories come about, as a fan, you have to<|fim_middle|> have to say I agree with Aaron Rodgers. There really isn't much to see here. But that depends on your opinion. I can see being concerned if you think this hurts a young receiver's ability to produce immediately, But I think this helps a receiver grow on the fly.
It's been said that as a young player Reggie Wayne struggled with Peyton Manning's signals. That they were just so many for Wayne to learn. That's a possible Hall of Fame Wide Receiver, and a Hall of Fame Quarterback. So, Aaron Rodgers isn't alone in his signals maybe being a bit more complicated. But Reggie Wayne is a shining example of that learning those signals don't damn the receiver to failure.
Looking back to week 8, I cited in an article a moment where I noticed Aaron Rodgers making a hand signal to his left. Rookie receiver Romeo Doubs then seemed to rub his elbow in response. I instantly thought to watch Doubs on the play. Sure enough, Doubs took off on a corner route, and Rodgers immediately found him for a great 26-yard gain. Obviously, Doubs knew what Rodgers' signal was then and found success. Then on Sunday, after Doubs hadn't played for the previous 4 games, he still caught 5 passes for 55 yards. Looks like Doubs has learned enough to be productive.
Let's take a look at Christian Watson in the last 5 games. 19 catches, 359 yards, 7 touchdowns. I think for the most part, Watson and Rodgers are on the same page to be productive as well.
Looking back on the article
So, this isn't to say exactly that Kahler's article has no merit. I have no doubt that Rodgers holds his receivers to a higher standard than most. In fact, I've believed that for 5 years now since he was glaring down Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown in their rookie seasons. It can be a bit frustrating, there's no doubt. You want those young players to produce, and you definitely want the Quarterback to go easy on them so they can. Sure, it can be shocking to know how high of a standard QB1 holds for his receivers, but is it that big of a surprise?
I kind of agree with Rodgers' statement on that this article is a bit of a "nothingburger." He wants his signals with his receivers to be a little more complex than most. He's a Hall of Fame Quarterback, he knows if he disguises his communication well enough, he'll get away with anything. And he's demonstrated that year after year. Randall Cobb was cited in this article that he's gone through the ringer of these signals. Cobb is a member of the fraternity of great Packers receivers during Rodgers' time that includes Driver, Jennings, Nelson, James Jones, and Davante Adams. If all those receivers found success, Aaron Rodgers has to be doing something right with his signals.
Can it be daunting for a young receiver? Sure. But I bet you that the experience leaves that receiver better off once they get the hang of it.
One thing we've taken out of this season is that the future is looking bright at the Wide Receiver position with Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. Though the growing pains can be very tough to watch, these players may be better from the experience and become better assets to the team after the fact.
If learning complex signals gets our receivers to the success level Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson have achieved so far, so be it. Perhaps they'll become members of the long list of great Packers receivers over the last 15 years.
Watson vs. Doubs: More catches as rookies? – Powered By PickUp
Greg Meinholz is a 24/7/365 Packers fan. When he's not spending time with his family, he can be found meditating in his Packers shrine with a good beer. You can follow him on twitter at @gmeinholz.
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mobile desktop | often think to yourself, "How much should I really care about this?" The latest one of the on-field variety has been dubbed "Signal Gate."
Every Quarterback from NFL to High School likely has signals they use to let their Receivers know of a change in their route. Or perhaps just to let them know that they're going to them right off the snap. In High School, these signals likely don't change the whole year. In College, they probably change periodically, but then in the NFL they change week to week. Maybe even mid-game. Why? Because it's easier to for other teams to catch on the more advanced you get in the game. And if the opposition knows your signals, your passing game might as well be a sitting duck.
When you have a Rookie Quarterback, the signals might be fairly simple, because the rookie is still adapting to the NFL and the last thing you want is to make it more complicated. But when you have a Hall of Fame Quarterback like Aaron Rodgers, it's safe to assume things might be more complicated.
On Friday, December 16th, an article dropped from The Athletic by Kalyn Kahler that dove into how difficult Rodgers' signals can be for rookie receivers. There's a chance this article may have been just another attempt at stirring drama until a missed signal-turned incomplete pass from Rodgers to Christian Watson that may have been a touchdown, was easily spotted during Monday night's game vs the Rams. Rodgers was questioned on it after the game, and he commented with a smile "If you want to catch touchdown passes, run the right routes"
On Tuesday during his appearance on the Pat McAfee show, Pat asked Rodgers about the media coverage of this. Rodgers went on to mention a "specific article" that was in his words "the dumbest, nothingburger article that I have read the entire season." This article happened to be the one written by Kalyn Kahler.
Now, I have to mention that this article in question, cites current, and former receivers, stating how much of a nightmare learning these signals can be. Even Randall Cobb and Jordan Love were cited on how difficult it can be to learn and perfect these signals. So, despite Rodgers' downplay of it, it has to have at least a little merit right?
Should we care?
Okay, now that you have the background on the situation, back to my point.
Is "Signal Gate" really a cause for concern for Packers fans? In my humble opinion, I | 505 |
Anatomy of an Administrator: Philip Ruthkosky on his greatest achievements in life
Justin Topa, Staff Writer
Philip Ruthkosky, the associate dean of Student Development at, has recently become a new father.
The associate dean is responsible for<|fim_middle|>, civic engagement, student activities, leadership and campus interfaith. In addition to this, Ruthkosky serves as Student Government adviser.
Ruthkosky was first hired by Wilkes in 1999 for a position involved with coordinating internships. He was soon promoted to director of Student Development, which led to his current position as associate dean.
Through this position, Ruthkosky has had the opportunity to travel and has experienced countless activities both hosted and participated in by Wilkes students. He considers getting to know students on a personal level one of his favorite parts of his position.
Ruthkosky has said that a time when he was most proud of being a part of Wilkes University came after the flooding of the Susquehanna River in the fall 2011.
"It was a time that hit the community hard," Ruthkosky said. "A lot of houses had tremendous damages and families were really in a tough position during that time. To see the way that our campus as a whole came together in support of the community just shows that our students, faculty and staff really have an appreciation for the idea that we are a part of something bigger. When the community needed them the most, they were there."
He spends as much time as possible with his wife, Renee, and their daughter, Elle, who is five months old.
The Ruthkosky family still stays active by jogging and hiking with Elle on-board in her jogging stroller. When asked of his proudest achievement, he smiled and pointed to a photograph of his wife and daughter.
"It's interesting because, when I get up in the morning, I try to read journals and books to stay current with the field of student affairs and higher education, and then, at night, I'm reading children's books to my daughter," Ruthkosky said. "It's quite a dichotomy because I'm reading an academic journal in the morning and "Itsy Bitsy Spider" at night. It's interesting but I wouldn't trade it for the world."
Anatomy of an Administratory
Justin Topa, Life, Arts & Entertainment Editor
Justin Topa, a senior at Wilkes University, currently serves as The Beacon's Life, Arts and Entertainment Co-Editor. He is a student within the Department... | directing all aspects of Student Development including, but not limited to, Adventure Education, internships | 18 |
Securities and Exchange Commission member Roel Campos will join the Palo Alto, Calif.-based law firm Cooley Godward Kronish when he leaves the SEC in September, the firm announced Thursday.
Campos, 58, a Harlingen native and former Houston radio executive, will become partner-in-chief of the firm's Washington office.
Campos, who has served<|fim_middle|>, announced Aug. 9 he would return to the private sector.
Before joining the SEC, he was one of two principal owner/executives of El Dorado Communications, a Houston-based radio broadcasting company.
In his new job, Campos will represent companies in SEC enforcement matters and internal investigations, advise corporate boards about governance issues, and counsel private equity, hedge and mutual funds on regulatory matters.
"I look forward to advising companies on important issues related to SEC guidelines and corporate governance that will benefit the companies themselves, as well as continue to bolster investor confidence," Campos said in a prepared statement. | on the commission for five years | 6 |
Stephen is Chief Executive of UniSA Ventures Pty Ltd.
He has 16 years of experience in scientific research, research management, technology commercialisation, investment<|fim_middle|> is the Chief Financial Officer and Company Secretary of UniSA Ventures.
He has over 25 years experience in commercial management, finance and corporate governance areas including board experience, both in an executive and non-executive capacity, across a range of technology businesses.
Bruce is a graduate of the Australian Institute of Company Directors and represents UniSA Ventures in its capacity as a shareholder in a number of its investee companies. In his role at UniSA Ventures, Bruce has established 14 new spin-out companies, overseen investment in a further 12 early stage businesses and exited six investments. | management and corporate governance.
Stephen has a successful track record in Australia, the US and Europe for attracting funding, publications in peer reviewed journals and generating patentable innovations for commercialisation. He has been involved in technology commercialisation at every stage of the process including implementation of technology development and intellectual property (IP) strategies, capital raisings and executive management in early stage companies.
Paul is CEO of ZEALANDIA, a world-first fenced urban eco-sanctuary in Wellington. In addition to being a director of Ferronova Pty Ltd, he chairs the board of directors of Boutiq Science Ltd, a nanotechnology company; Mevo Ltd, New Zealand's first electric car share company; and the MacDiarmid Institute for Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology, a national network of top New Zealand materials scientists.
Tijs was inaugural CEO of Ferronova and has almost 20 years' experience in commercialisation and market development of industrial technologies at management, executive and governance levels.
Tijs has spent the last five years with a pre-seed investment firm shaping, creating and growing new technology ventures. Prior to this he spent six years managing new product development and business growth in international markets at HTS-110 Ltd, a high-tech scientific instrument manufacturing company. Previously, Tijs worked at a New Zealand Crown Research Institute for seven years where he was involved in business development, market validation and capital raising.
Bruce | 286 |
KALW's mission is to provide listeners with independent, credible news and information from a variety of local, national and international sources. KALW also produces local programs that connect listeners to their communities, highlighting the music, arts and literature of the San Francisco Bay Area. Additionally, the station supports the educational mission of the San Francisco Unified School District by both informing the public about the San Francisco schools and creating opportunities for student-learning in radio.
Context, culture and connection from around the Bay Area.
Stories of emerging musicians from the San Francisco Bay Area -- in their own words and music. Produced by KALW.
Diana Arbas is a student teacher at Oakland High School, and this is Diana's radio diary of her first year of teaching.
The Sights & Sounds of Bayview is a radio series featuring stories about the remarkable people who live, work, and make a positive impact in San Francisco's Bayview neighborhood. This series was produced by KALW 91.7FM's storytelling project 'Hear Here', in partnership with the San Francisco Arts Commission.
The Litography Project is an interactive and evolving map that honors the Bay Area's literary past, present, and future.
The Spiritual Edge is a radio and web project from KALW Public Radio in San Francisco that will explore the innovative American spirit through<|fim_middle|> and religion.
Stories of leading women working in STEM industries in the Bay Area. Produced by KALW.
A weekly, one-hour show about how women rise up. | the lens of spirituality | 4 |
Home American singer 'Envy': Charlie Munger discusses the greatest cardinal sin in business –<|fim_middle|> envy and said that avoiding envy is one of the "simple" secrets to living a long and happy life, CNBC reported.
In fact, a 2018 study gathered that people driven by envy are more likely to experience poorer mental health and well-being.
The rise of social media has also been criticized for fueling people's feelings of envy and materialism by constantly providing windows into the lives of people who have, or appear to have, particularly luxurious lives.
Envy is simply "built into the nature of things," Munger told the Daily Journal meeting. The billionaire added that he can't understand why people today aren't happier with what they have, especially compared to the hard times previous generations went through.
(Translated from Spanish) | msnNOW
'Envy': Charlie Munger discusses the greatest cardinal sin in business – msnNOW
American singer jqqea December 13, 2022 0 Comment
By Laura Sánchez
Investing.com – Billionaire investor and Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRKa) vice chairman Charlie Munger is back to talking about wealth management and investing.
He did so at the annual meeting of the Daily Journal, the media group of which he is a director.
Warren Buffett's longtime right-hand man said, "The world is not driven by greed. It's driven by envy."
For Munger, the goal of accumulating wealth has always been to ensure his independence and his freedom to do what he wants in business and in life. But, he said, investors in general do not share this same vision.
Munger, 98, with an estimated fortune of $2.2 billion according to Forbes, pointed out how easy it is for people to be envious. "I have conquered envy in my own life. I don't envy anybody. I don't give a damn what someone else has. But other people are driven crazy by it," noted the billionaire investor, in statements picked up by CNBC.
This is not the first time Munger has referred to envy. In 2017, he said in an interview that he always tries to avoid feelings of "envy and jealousy" in business. "Those types of thoughts can hurt your career, because you'll be more likely to make biased decisions that could turn out poorly," he said.
In 2019, he again spoke out against | 336 |
Judge Moseley Retires
After 26 years of service to the City of Coppell, Presiding Judge Marian Moseley has announced her retirement on January 31, 2017. Colleagues, family and friends gathered at Town Center on Tuesday afternoon to celebrate and express gratitude for her many years of dedicated service.
"We would like to thank Judge Moseley for her many years of dedicated service to Coppell," said Mayor Karen Hunt. "Her expertise and commitment to the people of this city are extraordinary and we will miss her objective and gracious spirit."
Appointed in 1<|fim_middle|> making sure all persons have a chance to have their case heard.
She grew up the third of six children on a farm in Burkburnett, Texas and credits her parents as the inspiration behind pursuing a career in law.
"My parents always included everyone into their family," she said. "They were kind and helpful to so many in our community. I was the first lawyer in my family and saw the legal field as a place where I could help people with their needs."
After graduating salutatorian from Burkburnett High School in 1970, Judge Moseley went on to graduate from the University of Texas at Austin and the University of Texas Law School in 1974 and 1976, respectively. She began her career as a prosecutor in the Travis County Attorney's Office, the Dallas County District Attorney's office under Henry Wade and Midland County, where she later practiced civil law. She also practiced family law at Raggio & Raggio in Dallas.
Post retirement plans for Judge Moseley include traveling with her husband, Jim, spending time with children Becky and Jim, reading, gardening and catching up with friends and family. | 990, Judge Moseley is known for her commitment to helping the youth of the community.
From the growing staff, facilities and programs to the evolution of technology, Judge Moseley has seen big changes in the two plus decades she has been serving; However, the many cases she has presided over have been the most rewarding. One case that was particularly defining involved a young man charged with truancy who appeared in court many times over the course of three years. The court staff and school officials encouraged him to continue attending school and when he graduated from high school, the court staff bought him a cake to celebrate.
The case highlights what Judge Moseley says she will miss most about serving as Judge for the City of Coppell – the professional people who are so committed to | 159 |
The metatarsals are a group of bones located in the middle of one's foot. They are the group of five long bones<|fim_middle|> use and often some simple research at a local library or on the internet will produce some very helpful tips. | that each connect to an individual toe. These bones help to form the arch of the foot and endure a tremendous amount of stress due to repetition of motion and the pressure of basic daily activities. Often the metatarsals are subject to some type of injury or bruising, causing foot pain. When these injuries are determined not to be serious in nature, many treat the pain and discomfort with over-the-counter medications.
On the market today, there are many different kinds of pain relieving medications that are available to choose from over-the-counter. These come in many different strengths and varying forms. Most podiatrists recommend that just the basic aspirin, naproxen, or ibuprofen is the best types of medications to use to treat the pain of the metatarsals. This type of medicine not only relieves pain but also reduces inflammation of the tissues surrounding the injured bones.
All of these are available at most all local pharmacies as well as many retail stores. Each will cost according to the brand and size or quantity amount that one chooses. Individuals using these medications should follow the recommended dosing directions or ask their physician or podiatrist for instructions. Often a pharmacist can also help to answer any questions a person may have about this and any other over-the-counter medication. It is also suggested that this type of medications be used on a regular schedule until the condition is healed. This keeps the pain under control because once pain becomes severe it is hard to get it under control.
This method of relief usually is more effective if it is started as soon as the pain begins. Along with resting, exercising the foot and ankle by slowly stretching will help to gain back strength. Ice should be used on the painful area two to three times each day for approximately fifteen to twenty minutes in order to relieve some of the pain and reduce the amount of inflammation.
All of these steps are very basic and easy to follow. After a few days, if the symptoms are not relieved or they begin to worsen, one should seek medical attention from their physician or a podiatrist. Most often, however, a physician must refer a person to a podiatrist in order for them to be evaluated.
Other remedies many times used by individuals are rubs made of different common household ingredients and often these are referred to as poultices. Another form of home treatment is a cool foot soak. Simply place the affected foot and ankle in a pan of cool not cold water for about twenty minutes and do this several times a day in order to promote the reduction of inflammation and swelling. There are other home remedies that many | 519 |
General / Entertainment
February 14, 2022 February 18, 2022 - by kavya suresh - Leave a Comment
"Snapchat isn't about capturing the traditional Kodak moment. It's about communicating with the<|fim_middle|> to little fanfare.
This led them to integrate a workaround solution to the screenshot problem: Users could take screenshots on their iPhones, rendering the disappearing effect of Picaboo messages useless. Instead, they built a notification so users would be able to see if someone took a screenshot of their disappearing photo.
In September, Spiegel and Murphy rebranded the app as Snapchat, added the ability to caption photos, and relaunched in the iOS App Store. They focused on the app's technological innovations more than branding and marketing to make the experience more organic and cool than traditional advertising.
What's Next for Snapchat?
We think that ephemeral messaging will continue to grow in popularity, and we're anticipating continued competition between Instagram and Snapchat, too. Advertisers are already spending more money on social media advertising than on TV ads, and we predict that platforms like Snapchat will continue innovating new ways to serve ads that are useful — and not disruptive — for their audiences.
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About kavya suresh
View all posts by kavya suresh → | full range of human emotion — not just what appears to be pretty or perfect."
What is Snapchat?
Snapchat is a one-to-one and group messaging app that lets users send photo, video, and text messages that disappear after several seconds. Roughly 150 million people use Snapchat every day, and they consume around 800 hours of video per second. That's like watching every episode of "Game of Thrones" 13 times, per second.
In addition to its messaging features, Snapchat features Stories (photo or video messages that can be replayed for 24 hours), Memories (saved photos for sharing later), and stickers to embellish messages. The app has been widely adopted, especially among teenagers and Millennials: 26% of people surveyed between the ages of 12 and 24 said they used Snapchat the most, second only to Facebook.
Now that we're all up to speed, let's dive into some of Snapchat's major developments and achievements over the last five years — and what we might expect from five more.
The History of Snapchat
2011: Snapchat, then Picaboo, launches
Spiegel and his co-founder, Bobby Murphy, told Forbes that they met at Stanford University and created Picaboo, the first version of Snapchat, in the spring of 2011. They wanted to create an app that would send photos that would eventually disappear, and the initial Picaboo app was launched in the iOS App Store in July — | 306 |
The students of MSU Denver's nutrition program have many questions and concerns. It can be hard to know if you're on the right track, or if you've chosen the right degree program. Perhaps the best way to find answers is to ask those who have been there. Sarah Ziherl graduated from MSU Denver's Human Dietetics and Nutrition Program in the fall of 2014. While at MSU Denver, she served as a board member to the Auraria Campus Student Dietetics Association (ACSDA) and was the webmaster and social media manager of the club's website and Facebook page. These are her thoughts on earning a degree in nutrition.
Sarah: Excited, nervous, relieved, and proud - a little bit of everything. I definitely feel a bit heavy hearted to part ways with peers and professors I've grown fond of. Although, it's neat to think that our paths may cross again as colleagues in the near future.
Sarah: My work at a small, family-owned, running shop served as the catalyst for my passion in nutrition.
I met a variety of customers working as a sales associate. While a few<|fim_middle|>.
ACSDA: What is your dream job? Why?
Sarah: What a great question! I think it changes every day. I'm reading this book now by Helen W. Lane, PhD, RD, called Nutrition in Spaceflight and Weightlessness Models. As the Chief Nutritionist at NASA, she writes about her last 20 years of research studying the unique nutritional needs of astronauts in space. What a cool job!
Sarah is planning to blog through her internship experience, for those of you interested in following, it can be found at http://www.sarahziherl.com/blog/. | were training for the Olympics, most were weekend warriors or former couch-potatoes, looking to better their health. I often made casual conversation by asking: `What are your training goals?' It was a simple question requiring a brief answer, yet it often prompted a personal narrative. Customers disclosed diet and lifestyle choices, medical diagnoses, and even emotional struggles with food and body image.
It was eye opening to hear the discrepancy between intentions and actions. Many wanted to live healthy, but chose routines of inactivity and fast food. I don't recall saying anything exceptionally insightful, only listened and nodded with an empathic ear.
Over the course of three years, I found these interactions to be the most enjoyable part of my work. Their conversations were raw and honest expressions of successes and failures in fitness and weight loss. Even after I took an administrative role with my company, I made time to coach customers over the phone and email.
I found I had a passion for translating and communicating nutrition topics in an approachable and relatable way. With great care and consideration, I chose to expand my knowledge by enrolling in a nutrition program to pursue a career as a registered dietitian.
ACSDA: Did you apply for a dietetic internship? Did you receive a dietetic internship?
Sarah: I applied for an internship in the Fall 2014 match. I was matched with Iowa State University Distance Dietetic Internship, to start January 2015.
Sarah: The best piece of advice I received was from a former student, Meggan Estabrook. If she ends up reading this blog she's going to think i'm crazy, but her words have stuck with me to this day. She said "if you really want an internship, you will get it. But, you have to want it 100%" It has become my mantra through this process - "I want this!" - which has helped me through uncomfortable situations, like cold-calling preceptors or asking for references. I think you just have to go into this whole process knowing that you put in the work and effort to deserve the internship.
Sarah: Like many in our program, I took a non-traditional path in my pursuit of a dietetics degree. I originally graduated with a BA in International Affairs from American University, in Washington D.C. (2009). As a teen, I had traveled internationally quite a bit through the Rotary Exchange program and my intent was to continue to work in this field. But after graduation, I struggled with the transition from student to professional, and lacked the maturity to find work in a market saturated with new grads.
Luckily, my 'college job' at a small, family-owned, running shop took me on full time to help out around store. In the tightly knit industry, I made quite a few connections that helped me make the big move out to Colorado. I continued to work in run specialty, transitioning from floor sales to ecommerce and online content management.
My first degree, coupled with a few years of work, helped me realize that showing up for class is just a small part of the ' higher eduction experience.' It is just as important to network with peers and professionals, job-shadow, volunteer, and develop your name/niche in the field from the start | 667 |
Douglas McCormick's Family Inc. is, at its core, a user guide for family financial management. It is written for any American looking for sophisticated financial advice, but many of his key themes are uniquely relevant for veterans, regardless of age, education or experience. Through stories of his own journey from active duty Army officer to professional investor, McCormick empowers readers to become their family's 'CFO' and apply time-tested business principles and tools to plan for their family's financial future.
Investing Strategically in Education: Veterans<|fim_middle|> retirement planning advice to help veterans with this new opportunity and responsibility.
Family Teaching and Succession Planning: Family Inc. emphasizes that one of the most important jobs of the Family CFO is ensuring all family members are financially literate and prepared to assume these responsibilities should a succession plan be required. Life is uncertain, and regardless of your military status, preparation for this uncertainty is critical.
McCormick's strategies for financial security aren't about saving tricks and stock picks – they're about making a lifetime of better decisions about the major factors that impact our financial lives: education, career, spending, investing, insurance and retirement. Rather than serve as a "how to" user guide, Family Inc. offers a "how to think" guide based on tools borrowed from the business world. Regardless of your family's financial expertise or goals, Family Inc. is a valuable resource.
The Institute for Veterans and Military Families is working with Douglas McCormick to share the Family Inc. content with its Entrepreneurship Bootcamp for Veterans with Disabilities (EBV) program participants to empower our nation's veterans with the necessary skills required for financial success. | acquire great practical leadership and management skills while in the service; leveraging these skills through further education can be an extremely effective way to increase their labor value in the civilian market. Family, Inc. outlines the labor benefits of education, but also cautions against education for education's sake – this sage advice will help veterans make smart education choices unique to their situation.
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KITCHEN CONFIDENTIAL: Restaurant Week's Stephanie Scott dishes on simple pleasures, her journey, and the foodie event of the season
TABLE FOR TWO: Scott, bonding with culinary whiz and good friend Colin Hylton. Below, scenes from a life well lived.
Ahead of the 2015 leg of the food lover's extravaganza Restaurant Week, TALLAWAH pays a visit to the event's enterprising conceptualizer Stephanie Scott and discovers a gracious hostess, charming storyteller, and a woman of exquisite tastes.
It's complicated. That's the ideal way to describe the relationship Stephanie Scott has with food. "I do consider myself a foodie. I enjoy eating. I love food. But I'm not big on cooking," she confesses dramatically. She leans forward as if for emphasis then relaxes in her seat. We are ensconced on a pair of gorgeous sofas in the living room of her Marley Road digs in St. Andrew on a balmy Tuesday morning chatting like old pals about everything from family and career moves to life passions and the fast approaching Restaurant Week, which Scott and her team, have been producing for more than a decade now.
Restaurant Week is all about food, glorious food and the fine art of dining out, so I couldn't help inquiring about her personal food story. "I love food because it brings people together. It goes well with wine, and it plays a great role in camaraderie. But cooking? I can cook, but I don't like to cook." She lets out a hearty laugh.
Yes, it's one of the qualities we admire most in this formidable woman: her absolute candour and utter realness. There is no pretense with her, no hypocrisy. What you see is what you get. And she tells it like it is – in a voice that's deep and smoky and perfect for the movies.
Casting a keen eye around her well-appointed abode, we like what we see. From the breezy, picnic-perfect outdoors to the sublime interiors, you can't get enough of the rustic chic that screams English countryside manor. The artwork (Carl Abrahams, her dad Ralph Thompson's watercolours) and furniture are exquisite. We could live here.
Stephanie Scott is a Montessori-trained teacher (early childhood education is her specialty), who spent all of 29 years in the classroom. Upon retiring, she wanted to throw herself into a passion project. So when the idea of pioneering a Jamaican Restaurant Week was suggested to her (by a New York-based in-law), the opportunity proved irresistible. So, of course<|fim_middle|> to spotlight Jamaica as a great food destination."
A few interesting facts about Stephanie Scott: she counts Immaculate Conception, and Boston and Toronto Universities as alma maters; when she got married she lived in Central America (before returning to Jamaica in 1989) and speaks fluent Spanish; she's a divorced mother of two (adult sons Nicholas and Sean, Ivy League grads, are major corporate players in Jamaica today) and her three grandkids are the absolute joy of her life. Oh, and a couple of weeks ago she turned 60! "My birthday falls around the time of preparing for Restaurant Week, so I'm always working," she says. But her sons and grandkids insisted on making this year extra special. "We all went away to Treasure Beach for the weekend. We had a great time. I'm very fortunate that my sons decided to come back to Jamaica to work. After leaving college they turned down huge jobs to come back home."
It's almost time to take my leave. Near Stephanie's office door are dozens of small white goodie bags to be dropped off at some of the Corporate Area establishments participating in RW this week. You have to watch your step. When Stephanie slips into her office to take a phone call, I bump into Donna the housekeeper, who later escorts me to the front gate. When I ask Donna what it's like having Stephanie Scott for a boss, she emphasizes Stephanie's generous spirit and warmth. "She's a very nice woman. I've been working with her for 21 years now. I watched the kids grow up and go through school. She makes you feel like a part of the family," Donna says, sounding like the perfect, devoted housekeeper she is. A woman who, you can tell, loves to cook.
Labels: Cuisine, Food, Restaurant Week, Stephanie Scott, TALLAWAH Exclusive | , she jumped at it. "We started out with 23 restaurants, and now we're up to 75 restaurants this year," she reports with immense pride. "When I think about it now, doing something like a Restaurant Week was the farthest thing from my mind, but the thought simmered in my brain. And then I said to myself, 'I'm good at organizing; I'm personable. I could do this.' So I took my little basket and went from door to door."
Before long she managed to sell the idea and snag a few sponsors who gave her the backing she needed. "A big thing for me as The Gleaner, because I needed a print media partner, and they came on board with me." Flash-forward a decade or so later, and the partnership is stronger than ever. The RW brand itself, to say the least, has evolved nicely, advancing from strength to strength with Scott, seatbelt well fastened, in the driver's seat.
The truly beautiful thing about the growth of Restaurant Week, she tells me, is the way in which it basically evolved at its own gradual pace, and took on a life of its own. "I'm a conservative person; I like to take things slowly. So if somebody were to ask me why RW is so successful and so well patronized, I'd say it's because it's well managed. I think if I were to admit anything that would be it."
That said, while giving props to her PR and social media collaborators, and having taken the megabrand from Kingston to Montego Bay and Ocho Rios, she's set no ceiling on what RW can achieve in the years to come. "I'm really hoping to do Mandeville next year, with at least four or five restaurants participating. So we'll be going there in January to see what it's like and get the ball rolling."
She continues, "But where I'd really like to see RW go is to have it marketed more to the tourist market," she says. "If Jampro and the Tourist Board were to think about it, I don't see why food can't be marketed like how we market reggae music." She's also eyeing a few Caribbean destinations. "I would love to do some regional cities, taking the brand to other islands. I'm thinking of Barbados now."
By her own admission, Stephanie Scott is a big believer in collaboration. That's why she doesn't view the other local food events (especially the new and emerging ones) as competition. "I'm glad the other alternative food events are popping up because it's an economic boost. They are all celebrating Jamaican food and bringing people together. And with the international community looking on, it's giving our local chefs great exposure. I'm all for holding hands with these other culinary events | 580 |
Crozet has a new place to eat burgers.
In the former Pesto Grille space comes Mountainside Grille. Beer, burgers*, cheese fries, grilled cheese and more (menu is below). And because I know people are likely to be searching for their phone number – Mountainside Grille's phone number is 434-823-7080.
* Mountainside is being run by a former long-term employee of Riverside Grill … I haven't eaten there yet so can't make any determination as to the tastiness of the burgers, but early reports are that the food is tasty.
Mountainside Grille new hours: M-Thursday 10 a.m.-9 p.m.; Friday & Saturday 10 a.m. – till (if there's a crowd, we'll stay open past 9!)<|fim_middle|>. Not sure I'll go back.
They messed up our order and wouldn't make it right. It's too bad because I really wanted to like this place. The prices are much better than comparable restaurants in the area, but we won't be returning.
Burgers were great. Fries were nasty. Will go back but not for french fries.
Previous PostPrevious Crozet Avenue – Crozet's Bottleneck? | and Sunday 10 a.m. – 8 p.m. Thanks for everyone's support – last week was our first week and it was awesome, but a little crazy. we have new servers and more cooks, so if you had a long wait we are so SORRY! try us again – we'll be ready for you!! phone orders: 434.823.7080.
Decided to give Mountainside a try this weekend and was delighted! The burgers are great…best in Crozet. They remind me of the burgers from the 1950's.
HA! It's our very own version of a yummy cheese dip – spicy! We call it "crack dip" because one of our good friends had it and said it was so good – she was addicted! come in and try it! our prices are REALLY great and so is the food!
they treat their employees like Mexican sweet shop laborers if not family related and have really bad management skills. We predict that at the rate of turn over they will be losing business fast.
We tried to go at 7:15 and were told they weren't taking any more orders | 242 |
A dissertation abstract is probably one of the most crucial elements of the<|fim_middle|> results are going to be top-notch! | thesis structure, in spite of occupying only a small part of its total length. It is a short summary of the entire paper presented in its beginning – which means that it is likely to be the first meaningful description of your assignment encountered by anybody who reads it – and as we all know, you don't get a second chance at making a good first impression.
What can be so difficult about writing a few sentences (an abstract is usually no more than a single paragraph long) about what your dissertation, in general terms, is about? As it turns out, a lot – and the very fact that this section is so short makes it all the more troublesome. You are given a very limited word limit in which you are supposed to express the entire main idea of your dissertation, which requires considerable ability to condense information, take only what is the most important for the general picture of the things and so on. Taking into account the sheer size and scope of your average dissertation, it is not a trivial task – which you will find out by yourself if you ever try out to do it on your own.
It is often said that the best way to learn something is to see it done by somebody who is skilled at this sort of thing, and it is certainly true when it comes to writing dissertation chapters. When you buy a custom written dissertation abstract, you get a very good illustration of what your own work is supposed to look like: how large it can be, how many essential points you have to mention, how you can condense the information about your entire paper into a single paragraph. You may try to do it on your own and then order a dissertation abstract chapter – thus you will see the difference.
Possibility to order either an entire dissertation or any individual parts of it. You can buy only the parts you experience problems with (e.g., Methodology and References) while forgoing those you already understand.
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The majority of our writers have a Ph.D. in the discipline they write about or experience in a background dealing with this discipline in practice. They are capable of writing any academic assignment of university or college level without wasting a single moment to consult style guides, thus greatly increasing the speed and efficiency of their work. They are well aware of all the little details that are so important for maintaining a proper dissertation structure – and they are ready to put all this expertise at your service immediately after you place your order and transfer your payment. Don't hesitate – your order will be ready on time to give you enough time to get acquainted with its contents and, if necessary, ask for a revision. And whatever assignment you give us, the | 544 |
With three museums, an OMNIMAX Theater and more, the Cincinnati Museum Center at Union Terminal caters to all ages and interests.
Whether you need to entertain toddlers and teenagers or are looking for a cute couple outing, the Cincinnati Museum Center is the place to be.
Union Terminal's exterior served as the basis for the design<|fim_middle|>-than-life mouth display.
Nature's Trading Post – Kids can trade in the objects they find out in nature to earn points and prizes.
KidSPACE – This interactive lab teaches kids about science, technology, creativity and more.
Step through the doors of the Cincinnati History Museum and step back in time to the 19th century. Climb aboard a replica of the Queen of the West steamboat, talk with costumed interpreters and explore a re-creation of the 1850s Cincinnati Public Landing. What better way to learn about the region's history than walking right through it?!
Is that not far enough back in the ages for you? What about the Jurassic Period? Come face to face with prehistoric beasts in the new Dinosaur Hall, part of the Museum of Natural History & Science. The collection includes the 60-foot-long Galeamopus, the most complete specimen of its kind in the world, the Tyrannosaurus rex's older cousin Daspletosaurus and more.
Prepare to be wowed by the newly renovated five-story domed OMNIMAX Theater now with IMAX® with Laser. The new technology provides a better, crisper and brighter experience for visitors further aided by the theater's new, seemingly seamless screen. Wider chairs and updated carpet and lighting completes the makeover of this state-of-the-art venue.
Click here for upcoming Cincinnati Museum Center events. | of the Hall of Justice, the headquarters of the Justice League in the 1970s cartoon Super Friends. While you might not see Superman, Batman or Wonder Woman walking around the Hall of Justice's real-life counterpart, it's still a sight to behold as you head up the drive and see the Art Deco architecture rising up against the brilliant blue sky.
The Duke Energy Children's Museum presents more than 1,800 hours of programming for young'uns in addition to the exhibit areas that are always available.
Kids' Town – Kids can explore this neighborhood sized just for them with grocery store, veterinary clinic, post office, diner and more.
The Energy Zone – Different stations offer different interactive and educational tasks.
Little Sprouts Farm – Children four years and younger will love the slide, sand table, puppet shows and more in this play space for crawlers and early walkers.
The Woods – Little ones can go on an adventure of the imagination with rope bridges, climbing wall, tree house and more.
Inside the Grin – Learn all about good dental hygiene with larger | 218 |
FTA event coverage: ICRAF calls for upscaling of agroforestry to tackle climate change
A perfect example of eco-efficient agriculture, provided by a CIPAV silvo-pastoral system at Reserva Natural El Hatico, familia Molina Durán, near Palmira, Colombia. Photo: Neil Palmer/CIAT
Originally posted at ICRAF's Agroforestry World Blog
The Paris climate change agreement came into force on 4 November 2016—an unprecedented event. And the COP22 climate talks here in Marrakech have been all about turning that agreement into action on the ground. The big question for all, is: how do we reach the triple win of development, adaptation and mitigation without degrading our natural resource base?
Trees in forests and on agricultural landscapes are central to climate change mitigation and adaptation, and to delivering on the Paris Agreement. And they are central to delivering vital livelihood benefits and income, both for the rural population and, via the provision of a diversity of products and services, for urban consumers.
Agroforestry—agriculture with trees—is also instrumental to reaching the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that aim to eradicate hunger, reduce poverty, provide affordable and clean energy, protect life on land, reverse land degradation and combat climate change. Because of the carbon sequestration capacity of trees in biomass and soils, agroforestry can contribute greatly to assist countries to reach their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
The World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) is supporting national governments in Africa, Asia<|fim_middle|> needed to successfully implement sustainable agricultural solutions. We call for:
Scaling up agroforestry as a solution for climate change adaptation and mitigation via Nationally Determined Contributions;
Raising the investment in providing scientific evidence of agriculture's contribution to climate change mitigation and adaptation;
Reducing land degradation and deforestation through agriculture with trees;
Including sustainably produced bioenergy to the Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL) initiative's portfolio of options to end energy poverty.
We also have great optimism as private financing emerges to enable such investments to contribute to public goods around climate change, sustainable environmental stewardship and farmers' livelihoods. In particular, the Livelihoods Fund and Tropical Landscape Finance Facility are showing tremendous leadership in making it happen at large scale.
Adjust the sail of Rights to brave the climate storm, urge GLF delegates
Zoom in on Borneo ecology | and Latin America in developing the tools, knowledge, options and capacity | 13 |
The King Of Fighters XIII Interview: Fighting Its Way Back To The Throne
We're truly living a fighting games renaissance. Ever since Street Fighter IV reignited the genre back in 2009, we've been getting a number of interesting and diverse titles, from the lush visuals of BlazBlue to the air combo extravaganza of Marvel Vs. Capcom 3. Along the way, we had The King of Fighters XII from SNK Playmore, touted as a "re-birth" of the traditional 3-on-3 series. And although it really gave new life to the franchise with gorgeous hi-def 2D sprite art and sleek animation, the game delivered little in terms of contents.
Two years later, SNK Playmore is hard at work to regain the crown with The King of Fighters XIII for PlayStation 3, picked for publishing by Rising Star Games in Europe. And based on the prospects, thirteen seems to be the lucky number for KOF. The game was originally launched in Japanese arcades back in July 2010, being praised by fighting game connoisseurs for its vastly expanded roster (31 playable characters, including the return of fan favorite Mai Shiranui), revised fighting system (with faster gameplay and elements from previous titles in the series), and a multi-path Story Mode (with the conclusion of the Ash Crimson trilogy). For the home version, the team is adding even more fighters, stages and a variety of game modes – not to mention balance adjustments based on feedback from players of the arcade version.
Scheduled for November 25th in Europe, The King of Fighters XIII is aimed at long time fans and fighting games enthusiasts in general. To know more details about this return to form, we reached to Producer Kei Yamamoto from SNK Playmore in Japan, as he goes in depth about gameplay, story, netcode, and future plans – yes, we begged for asked about KOF on PS Vita; too. So read on to know what await you later in November and leave your favorite KOF memories in the comments!
PlayStation.Blog: Although it was great to see KOF finally entering the HD era while still sticking to its 2D roots with The King of Fighters XII, the game was criticized for its somewhat limited content. How does The King of Fighters XIII evolve from the previous game in that regard?
Kei Yamamoto, Producer for the home version of The King of Fighters XIII: KOF XII was most criticized for its lack of characters, despite it being a KOF title. So we went from 20 characters (22 in the console version) to 31 characters in the arcade version of KOF XIII, and we're adding a few more to the console version.
We have also added different modes, such as Tutorial for beginners, Mission for experts, and Story for those who wish to learn more about what went on during KOF XIII. This game has evolved from its predecessor in every respect, so players can expect to enjoy it for a long, long time.
PSB: These hi-res 2D sprites are really beautiful in movement. How was the processe to bring these graphics to life?
Yamamoto: What we did was first create 3D models of each character. We posed them, added lighting, and then outputted them as 2D frames. From there, we moved on to post-processing, where we added details such as illustration-like expressions and shadows by hand. We think it's a very unique process for creating 2D sprites.
PSB: What does the 13th installment of KOF brings to the table in terms of gameplay? What features will make KOF XIII stand out in the crowded fighting genre?
Yamamoto: There are two different meters in KOF XIII: the Power gauge and the Hyperdrive (HD) gauge.
The Power gauge builds up when you hit or get hit, and when it's completely filled, it becomes stocked. By using your stocks, you can unleash powerful attacks such as Desperation moves and guard cancels. This system is familiar to KOF fans.
For the new HD gauge, building meter uses the same process as the Power gauge, but you use it for a different purpose. The HD Gauge is used to Drive Cancel, which is canceling a Special move in the middle and following up with another, and it is also used to Super Cancel. A Super Cancel lets you execute a Desperation move in the middle of a Special move. Finally, the HD Gauge will allow you to activate Hyperdrive Mode, a mode that offers you a variety of tactical advantages that can allow you to quickly turn the tables of the match in your favor.
There are a great number of quality titles in the fighting game genre. Many different systems and features have been created thus far, and the genre keeps evolving. In the midst of all that, we can proudly say that KOF is unique for its 3-on-3 team battle system. This, combined with our other features, makes KOF the outstanding series that it is.
PSB:<|fim_middle|> XIII on my PS3 since 2010 heres where i got it from.
http://www.ebay.co.uk/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_trksid=p5197.m570.l1313&_nkw=+King+of+Fighters+XIII&_sacat=See-All-Categories
Kirais7
November 2, 2011 at 8:40 am PDT
really looking forward to KofXIII. | The game was originally launched in arcades. How does releasing a game to the arcade crowd benefit the game's balance? Are you making additional adjustments for the home version?
Yamamoto: The arcade release definitely affected the game balance of the console version. We received a lot of good input from KOF XIII arcade players. Some of those opinions and complaints were sent directly to us, while others were found on review sites and forums. All feedback is valuable to us – while we can't implement everyone's requests, we still tried to consider them when we were balancing the console version.
PSB: The previous title in the series had a short interval between the arcade and home versions. The King of Fighters XIII, meanwhile, comes more than a year after it was introduced in Japanese arcades. Did you use this extra time to create more content and exclusive features for the home version?
Yamamoto: We kept fixing what was needed to be fixed and adding content that fans wanted, and before we knew it, a year passed. We apologize for keeping our fans waiting, but there's plenty of game content in return, so please look forward to it.
PSB: Online play is a crucial feature for fighting games nowadays. What improvements did you make over KOF XII in terms of netcode, matchmaking and online features?
Yamamoto: We received many comments from the players regarding the netcode. In order to improve the online performance, our netcode received a complete overhaul: we reexamined the threshold level, optimized the content of the transmitted data, and changed the way the game handled increased net traffic, among other things.
PSB: With the return of fan favorite Mai Shiranui and the original Iori Yagami available as a DLC character, The King of Fighters XIII seems like it's full of fan service. Are you sticking to the hardcore fan base with this title or are you also thinking of ways to make it more accessible to a wider group of players?
Yamamoto: Not only is KOF a long running series, but the story of KOF XIII carries over from a previous installment, so the main target for this game has to be the series fans. But as we mentioned previously, we've added various modes to the game, such as Tutorial, so that fighting game beginners could also enjoy it. We hope that the series fans, other fighting game players, and people who have never played a fighting game before will all pick up this title and play it.
PSB: With this installment, the game returns to its tradition of having dozens and dozens of characters. We know every character from The King of Fighters XII make a comeback, but what were your directives when choosing additional fighters for this new chapter?
Yamamoto: There was no story progression in the last game; since this title is the conclusion of the Ash saga, many characters related to Ash's story will make an appearance. In order to bring back what makes KOF KOF—we call it "KOF-ism"—, in KOF XIII we added characters that embodied "KOF-ism". We also made sure that the roster wasn't filled with just the popular characters, so players could experience the deepness of the new game system.
PSB: The King of Fighters XIII finally brings a conclusion to the Ash Saga, picking the story where The King of Fighters XI left off. The series was always known for its complex storyline, so what can we expect for the end of this trilogy?
Yamamoto: The main character in the third story arc, Ash, being quite different from the two earlier protagonists, had people both loving and hating him. Pay close attention to him – that's all we need to say. Why did he try to collect the Three Sacred Treasures? Why did he part ways with Elisabeth? We want you to find out for yourselves. And if you could relate to him after learning his reason for his actions, his way of life, that would make us happy.
PSB: PlayStation Vita is turning into the ultimate portable machine for fighting games. What do you think of the hardware? Any chances we'll see a KOF title for PS Vita in the future?
Yamamoto: The PlayStation Vita controls well, the titles being released are appealing, and user impressions are good, so I am very interested in it, not just as a developer but as a user as well. Personally, I'd love to work on a KOF title for PS Vita if the opportunity arises.
PSB: We still miss SVC Chaos and Capcom vs SNK titles. Do you think we can see a new crossover with characters from both companies again?
Yamamoto: Crossover games not only provide excitement to fans, but to us developers as well, so I'm hoping we could do it again someday. In order to make that a reality, we'll continue to do our best and make KOF bigger and better.
PSB: So what's next for SNK Playmore? You know, a lot of us are still waiting for a new Fatal Fury title. Maybe you could revive the Garou 2 project?
Yamamoto: There are Garou: Mark of the Wolves fans in our company as well, and making a sequel is very appealing to us. Not only MOW, but our other titles have many fans wishing for a sequel as well. There are even those who want a Neo Geo Battle Coliseum sequel.
As to what kind of game we'll be making next, we're in the concept stage right now. My goal is to lead a project that would meet the expectations of as many of our fans as possible.
The King of Fighters XIII hits PS3 November 25th – there's even a cool 4-CD soundtrack as a pre-order bonus at participating retailers. To keep updated about the title, keep an eye on the official website and follow Rising Star Games on Twitter and Facebook.
playstation gamesps3ps3 gamesrising star gamessnk playmorethe king of fighters xiii
YelllowFlash
November 1, 2011 at 2:18 pm PDT
Great interview! Getting this game on launch…get hype!
HexElf
For me, this game killed the hype of every other game surrounding it. There are tons of awesome recent releases but the diehard SNK fan in me simply had to put KOF13 in front of everything else. I can't wait to finally get my hands on it!
Ugh. Still a tired old series.
NikosCook
Already preordered and looking forward to, the arcade version changed my opinion completly on whether the series would improve after XII, glad that it has done.
Immortal-Wolf-
Already have The King Of Fighters XIII japanese version as like everyone else who import games but didn't really enjoy The King Of Fighters XIII same as The King Of Fighters XII
PS3 had that japanese version as-well.
Think SNK need to step up to custom creation in The King Of Fighters future games to improve Fighting arcade games my ratings on The King Of Fighters XIII 3.10
KOF XIII a copycat of KOF XII really disappointing.
Scheduled for November 25th 2011 in Europe, The King of Fighters XIII
The King Of Fighters XIII been out 22nd september 2010 japan
just proves how some games in japan take 1 year to release in europe but Ebay.com imports lot faster just change japanese language settings to english easy then play im Rank A took me 5 months to get there on The King Of Fighters XIII
Heres my points see for yourself ok people.
King of Fighters XIII: Trailer 1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXPVnC3rw08
Arcade Infinity – King of Fighters XIII Casuals
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wW3pXC_6x9U
The King Of Fighters XIII came out 2010
Just to prove my points.
The King Of Fighters XIII came out 2010.
ojsinnerz
Uh, Imortal-wolf. KOF 13 isn't out ANYWHERE. God damn. Am I on Youtube?
Looking forward to the game. I got my copy pre-ordered, and I hope it sells well!
ukcrazyguy
November 2, 2011 at 12:10 am PDT
Got kof 12 on ps3 and it's a good game. Looking forward to this one too.
ojsinnerz Wrote; Uh, Imortal-wolf. KOF 13 isn't out ANYWHERE. God damn. Am I on Youtube?Looking forward to the game. I got my copy pre-ordered, and I hope it sells well!
Ow realy iv had King of Fighters | 1,809 |
BMW's new turbocharged N20 four-cylinder engine is rated at 240 hp.
More power, greater torque, reduced fuel consumption, lower tailpipe emissions and less weight--but better? Before driving the BMW X1 xDrive28i, the first model to feature the German carmaker's new turbocharged 2.0-liter four-cylinder gasoline engine, we weren't so sure.
The new engine, known as the N20 and set to lead a return of four-cylinder BMW models to North America for the first time since 1998, has been conceived to (indirectly) replace the company's long-running naturally aspirated 3.0-liter inline six-cylinder. It's part of an ongoing downsizing program at the center of BMW's EfficientDynamics initiative.
The new four-cylinder follows the blueprint set by BMW's most recent turbocharged 3.0-liter inline six-cylinder, the N55. It boasts the same 3.5-inch bore center spacing and runs a twin-scroll turbocharger (albeit from Mitsubishi, not Borg Warner), Valvetronic variable valve timing, a Vanos camshaft control system and the latest high-pressure direct-injection system from Bosch. At 317.5 pounds, the engine weighs about 40 pounds less than the old naturally aspirated six-cylinder.
The BMW X1 crossover is the first vehicle to use the N20 turbocharged engine.
First impressions reveal the N20 to be up to the job. With peak power arriving 1,600 rpm earlier and peak torque arriving 1,350 rpm earlier than with the six-cylinder, the N20 doesn't have to be worked hard before delivering its best.
In everyday driving, the N20 is noticeably more responsive, although its sound is nowhere near as alluring as that of the engine it replaces. BMW says that will be fixed on certain models, including on an updated Z4 sDrive28i, with the addition of an electronic sound generator.
At 240 hp, the N20 develops 10 hp more than BMW's 3.0-liter inline-six in North America. It is terrifically refined and always feels urgent, with 260 lb-ft of torque on tap at 1,250 rpm. The power delivery is uncannily like that of a modern-day diesel, with particularly strong low-end attributes and impressive flexibility across a wide range of<|fim_middle|> By comparison, the current X1 xDrive28i sold in Europe, which uses a 258-hp version of BMW's 3.0-liter inline-six, posts figures of 6.8 seconds, 143 mph and 6.1 seconds, respectively.
Power builds in a smooth, free revving fashion without any hint of turbocharger lag. Work the N20 hard, and it revs happily to 7,000 rpm, although like most modern direct-injection units, there's a distinct lack of engine braking on a trailing throttle. The engine's powerful electronics package ensures maximum coasting potential is achieved by allowing the revs to fall away gradually.
Combining the N20 with BMW's familiar EfficientDynamics package-brake-energy regeneration, stop/start and an on-demand water pump--results in a 16 percent improvement over the inline-six in the combined European consumption cycle at 29.8 mpg (U.S.).
So the N20 is pleasing to drive and highly efficient. But, as it stands now, it's not as aurally entertaining nor as engaging as the six-cylinder it will eventually replace. Not yet, anyway. The potential is there, though. | revs.
The six-speed manual version of the new X1 xDrive28i is claimed to reach 62 mph in 6.1 seconds, hit a top speed at 149 mph and boast a 50-mph-to-75-mph fourth-gear split at 6.0 seconds. | 68 |
Paralepididae — родина костистих риб ряду Авлопоподібні (Aulopiformes). Відомо близько 50 видів глибоководних риб, які поширені по всьому світі.
Найдавніші викопні предки паралепідід дуже схожі на сучасних зеленоочкових (Chlorophthalmidae). Із числа нині живучих риб вони (і особливо рід Stemonosudis) найближчі до родини Anotopteridae.
Поширення
Поширені Paralepididae надзвичайно широко й зустрічаються від Арктики до Антарктики, але найбільш звичайні у тропіках. Серед них є види із циркумтропічним і навіть всесвітнім поширенням (Paralepis atlantica), але є й такі, поширення яких обмежено певними районами. Так, наприклад, нотолепіс антарктичний (Notolepis coatsi) мешкає тільки в Антарктиці, а паралепіс середземноморський (Paralepis speciosa) — тільки у Середземному морі. Деякі види дуже звичайні над шельфом й у закритих морях, таких, як Середземне, Мексиканська затока, внутрішні індонезійські моря.
Багато видів родини звичайні біля поверхні, інші живуть глибше, але нижче 1000–1500 м вони не зустрічаються.
Опис
Всі представники родини — справжні океанічні риби; деякі з них досягають довжини майже 90 см. Тіло цих риб сильно подовжене, у деяких майже вугреподібне, попереду стисле, у задній частині овальне або циліндричне. Голова велика, сплющена. Очі нормальної будови, круглі, розташовані з боків голови. Щелепи витягнуті, загостренні. Довжина їх може досягати половини довжини голови. Зуби, рухливі й нерухомі, на щелепах, піднебінних костях і зябрових дугах. Найдовші зуби перебувають на нижній щелепі й (рухливі) на передній частині піднебіння.
Спинний плавець маленький, розташований, так само як і черевний, приблизно на середині довжини тіла. Анальний плавець відсунутий у задню частину тіла; основа його довга, приблизно дорівнює довжині голови<|fim_middle|>3).
Lestidiops sphyraenopsis Hubbs, 1916.
Lestidiops sphyrenoides (Risso, 1820).
Рід Lestidium
Lestidium atlanticum (Krøyer, 1868).
Lestidium bigelowi
Lestidium longilucifer Ho, Graham & Russell, 2020
Lestidium nudum Gilbert, 1905.
Lestidium prolixum Harry, 1953.
Lestidium rofeni Ho, Graham & Russell, 2020
Рід Lestrolepis
Lestrolepis intermedia (Ege, 1933).
Lestrolepis japonica (Tanaka, 1908).
Lestrolepis luetkeni (Ege, 1933).
Lestrolepis pofi (Harry, 1953).
Рід Macroparalepis
Macroparalepis affinis Ege, 1933.
Macroparalepis brevis Ege, 1933.
Macroparalepis danae Ege, 1933.
Macroparalepis macrogeneion Post, 1973.
Macroparalepis nigra (Maul, 1965).
Рід Magnisudis
Magnisudis atlantica (Krøyer, 1868).
Magnisudis indica (Ege, 1953).
Magnisudis prionosa (Rofen, 1963).
Рід Notolepis
Notolepis annulata Post, 1978.
Notolepis coatsi Dollo, 1908.
Рід Paralepis
Paralepis brevirostris (Parr, 1928).
Paralepis coregonoides Risso, 1820
Paralepis elongata (Brauer, 1906).
Paralepis speciosa Bellotti, 1878.
Рід Stemonosudis
Stemonosudis bullisi Rofen, 1963.
Stemonosudis distans (Ege, 1953).
Stemonosudis elegans (Parr, 1928).
Stemonosudis elongata
Stemonosudis gracilis (Ege, 1933).
Stemonosudis intermedia (Ege, 1933).
Stemonosudis macrura (Ege, 1933).
Stemonosudis miscella (Ege, 1933).
Stemonosudis molesta (Marshall, 1955).
Stemonosudis rothschildi Richards, 1967.
Stemonosudis siliquiventer Post, 1970.
Рід Sudis
Sudis atrox Rofen, 1963.
Sudis hyalina Rafinesque, 1810.
Рід Uncisudis
Uncisudis advena (Rofen, 1963).
Uncisudis longirostra Maul, 1956.
Uncisudis posteropelvis Fukui & Ozawa, 2004.
Uncisudis quadrimaculata (Post, 1969).
Посилання
Alepisauroidei
Родини риб | . Жировий плавець завжди є, розвинений добре й перебуває над задньою частиною анального.
Примітивні форми родини, наприклад рід Паралепіс (Paralepis), мають луску, у більш спеціалізованих родів (Lestidium, Lestrolepis й ін.) луска відсутня. Плавального міхура у всіх веретенникових немає.
Світні органи є тільки в представників родів Lestidium і Lestrolepis. По своїй будові вони різко відрізняються від того, що є у світних анчоусів або гоностомових. Світні органи паралепідід являють собою внутрім'язові канали, розташовані в черевній мускулатурі, уздовж середньої лінії тіла між горлом і основою черевних плавців. У Lestrolepis таких каналів два, у Lestidium — один.
Забарвлення Paralepididae буває двох типів. Всі лускаті види мають досить товстий шар сріблистого гуаніну, що покриває луску, під якою лежить шар темних пігментних клітин. При житті тіло цих риб блищить сріблом або відливає металевою міддю й дуже сильно рефлектує. У безлускових видів тіло дзеркально гладке й переливається всіма кольорами веселки. У личинок і молоді деяких видів крізь стінки тіла просвічують темно забарвленні ділянки черевної порожнини, і передня частина їхнього тулуба здається розділеною на темні сегменти числом до тридцяти.
Спосіб життя
Paralepididae відомі головним чином по молодих, статево незрілих екземплярах; деякі роди відомі тільки по молоді. Причина цього складається, як і для деяких інших глибоководних пелагічних риб, в тім, що великі риби, які здатні до стрімких кидків, легко уникають повільних сіток і тралів, якими працюють із науково-дослідних судів. Досить сказати, що тільки один з відомих науці великих дорослих екземплярів паралепідід був пійманий сіткою, а інші знайдені мертвими або виявлені в шлунках більших хижаків.
Найдивніша риса біології паралепідід — їхній незвичайний спосіб плавання. Під час одного із занурень батискафа FNRS-3 спостерігали на глибині від 600 до 1000 м безліч цих риб, що пливли у вертикальному положенні. При цьому окремі риби могли майже миттєво перевертатися, зависаючи то вгору, то вниз головою. Є думка, що всі безлускові види плавають у вертикальному положенні, а всі покриті лускою — горизонтально. Відомо при цьому, що у лускатих, примітивних видів спина трішки горбата, а голова опущена донизу, тобто є такі особливості в будові тіла, які полегшують перехід з горизонтального положення у вертикальне, головою вниз.
Розмноження
Тропічні паралепідіди розмножуються, очевидно, цілий рік, а риби, що мешкають в середніх і високих широтах — навесні й на початку літа. Личинки й мальки тримаються на менших глибинах, ніж дорослі особини тих же видів.
Живлення
За характером живлення всі паралепідіди — хижаки, що поїдають дрібних риб, креветок й інших безхребетних тварин.
Вороги
Будучи дуже численними, паралепідіди у свою чергу служать їжею більшим хижакам. Ними харчуються дельфіни, тюлень гренландський, тунці, алепізаври, тріска й інші великі риби. Один раз у шлунку сайди (Pollachius virens) було виявлено 40 досить великих екземплярів нотолепіса (Notolepis rissoi).
Використання людиною
Серед видів цієї родини є й такі, які безпосередньо використаються людиною, — випадок для глибоководних пелагічних риб поки що надзвичайно рідкісний. Навесні біля берегів Південно-Західної Гренландії місцеві жителі збирають досить багато плаваючих на поверхні напівживих і вже загиблих паралепісів (Paralepis coregonoides) і нотолепісів (Notolepis rissoi), яких вони називають «великий піщаний вугор» («піщаним вугром» вони називають піщанку, Ammodytes). Ці риби виносяться за межі свого ареалу відгалуженнями Північно-Атлантичної течії й, потрапивши в холодні води, гинуть.
Класифікація
Описано 65 видів у 13 родах:
Рід Anotopterus
Anotopterus nikparini
Anotopterus pharao
Anotopterus vorax
Рід Arctozenus
Arctozenus risso (Bonaparte, 1840).
Рід Dolichosudis
Dolichosudis fuliginosa Post, 1969.
Рід Lestidiops
Lestidiops affinis (Ege, 1933).
Lestidiops bathyopteryx (Fowler, 1944).
Lestidiops cadenati (Maul, 1962).
Lestidiops distans (Ege, 1953).
Lestidiops extrema (Ege, 1953).
Lestidiops gracilis (Ege, 1933).
Lestidiops indopacifica (Ege, 1953).
Lestidiops jayakari (Boulenger, 1889).
Lestidiops mirabilis (Ege, 1933).
Lestidiops neles (Harry, 1953).
Lestidiops pacificus (Parr, 1931).
Lestidiops ringens (Jordan & Gilbert, 1880).
Lestidiops similis (Ege, 193 | 2,161 |
Judith A. Lauterbach, age 72 found peace on Tuesday, March 26, 2019. She was born on April 6, 1946 in Waukesha to parents Harold and Marcine (Farnham) Schultz. She was united in marriage on March 19, 1983 to Jeff "Chowder" Lauterbach. Judy worked her entire career at FirstWeber Relators in Delafield.
Judy was an<|fim_middle|>00 AM until time of service. Committal at the Gardens of Stone Bank. In lieu of flowers, memorials are appreciated to the Black River Falls Public Library.
To send flowers or a remembrance gift to the family of Judith Ann Lauterbach, please visit our Tribute Store.
"Email Address" would like to share the life celebration of Judith Ann Lauterbach. Click on the "link" to go to share a favorite memory or leave a condolence message for the family. | avid reader. She enjoyed being outdoors, riding her ATV and horseback riding. Her and Chowder loved to travel; visiting casinos, major National Parks and all fifty states.
Judy is survived by her loving husband; two daughters, Denise (Jim) Wasilewski and Colleen (Jim) Baus; four grandchildren, Brandon (friend Amber Koester) Wagar, Christopher (fiancé Mollie Verdick) Wagar; Ben (Gretchen) Baus and Allison (friend Eric Schuetz) Baus; great-grandson, Weston Wagar; five siblings; Sandy (Frank) Wallisch, Mike (Mary) Schultz, Bob (Nancy) Schultz, Scott (Denise) Schultz and Jim (Vivian) Schultz; brothers-in-law, Darwin Lauterbach, Scott (Bonnie) Lauterbach; sister-in-law, LuAnn (Gary) Meyers; also survived by nieces, nephews, other relatives and friends. Judy is preceded in death by her parents.
Funeral Service for Judy will be held at Shimon Funeral Home, 824 Union St., Hartford on Tuesday, April 2 11:00 AM with Fr. David LaPlante presiding. Visitation at the Funeral Home on Monday, April 1 from 3:00 PM - 6:00 PM concluding with a prayer service. Continued visitation at the Funeral Home on Tuesday from 10: | 303 |
MOORE, Okla. -- Earlier this month, a flight cancellation caused a high school Latin class to lose two days of sightseeing in Italy.
A trip for which each student saved $3,000.
"I was so excited," Southmoore High<|fim_middle|> Melot said about the anticipation.
She and her classmates couldn't wait to get to Italy.
Then they heard they might not get to go.
"Kind of scared (us) because we had put so much into this trip," Melot said. "Some of us working two jobs. Some of us, you know, saving up for two years to go."
Their American Airlines morning flight to Dallas from Oklahoma City had been canceled due to bad weather in Dallas-Ft. Worth.
Her Latin class teacher who coordinated the trip, Darin Davis, got the cancellation call from an airline manager at 3 a.m., the morning of the trip.
"Who said that I immediately needed to get all 18 members of my group together and drive to Dallas," he recalls. "That was the only way we would be able to make our trip at all."
Davis said a middle-of-the-night drive at a moment's notice was an impossible request.
So later that morning at Will Rogers World Airport, he went to the ticket counter several times to ask about other flights.
"And she (employee) said, 'No, our general manager pulled us all behind the desk and actually told us that we aren't allowed to help you any further,'" he said.
"(She said) 'Listen sir, since this is a weather-related issue, if you're not willing to drive, we don't have to help you get to Italy at all.'"
Eventually, the group's travel agency got them to Italy on another airline after two long days of travel.
"Their obligation is to get you there," Bayless Travel's Dave Blew said.
He said full flights and bad weather may force delays and travel to Europe has been very heavy lately.
So before your trip, Blew says check airlines' websites for cancellation and refund policies.
Also, ask if other airlines will honor your ticket and be courteous, if necessary, negotiate.
"You can just keep asking (for what you want)," Blew said. "Say, 'That's not acceptable. What else can you give me?' You know, and they may have to go to supervisory personnel but they definitely want to work with you. They want you to come back and fly them again."
Davis said that's not happening.
"They've lost 18 customers for life by the way that they handled the whole situation," he said.
The students did enjoy the remainder of their trip.
American Airlines told us, "In any weather situation we do our best to re-accommodate passengers on canceled flights and often, if it's a big event, there is a weather policy in effect for that weather event to expedite re-booking. If re-booking is not an option, we will refund the passenger's ticket price." | School student Madalynne | 6 |
Wellington residents want parking fee hike dialled back
People living on the fringe of Wellington's CBD are urging the council to dial back a planned parking fee hike.
The City Council is proposing to increase residents' and coupon parking in inner<|fim_middle|>32 residents permits currently issued.
"The purpose of residents parking is to allow residents to park in the vicinity of their residence. The scheme however, does not guarantee residents a park directly outside their property.
"The residents parking scheme allows a single residence to have up to two permits. Multi-unit dwellings are able to access one permit per unit," the spokesperson said.
There were alternatives to owning your own car, Ms Pannett said, such as car or ride sharing, and public transport.
"Instead of saying we need more parking, we actually need to reclaim our streets for our children, for the environment," she said.
"I do respect that some people have different needs and they find cars useful, so really it's up to decision-makers to be able to provide those options. We're going to have light rail hopefully in the next decade, the bus problems should be resolved, we're building cycleways."
–RNZ / Michael Cropp | -city suburbs by more than 50 percent each, taking them to $195 and $120 a year respectively.
While some residents say the increase will make them think twice about using their car, councillors say that is the point.
City councillor Iona Pannett said the fee increase was a necessary step because the money was used for road maintenance, "but also to facilitate a shift towards public transport, walking, and cycling, which is better for the community and better for the environment".
The councillor with the transport portfolio Chris Calvi-Freeman said if parking fees had not gone up, rates would have.
"It does look quite a hike," he said, but when broken down by week or day "it's not a huge amount".
Photo: RNZ / Richard Tindiller
There was a slew of increases planned across Wellington's parking spectrum with residents, coupon, and metered parking fees all set to go up. https://wellington.govt.nz/have-your-say/public-inputs/consultations/open/traffic-resolutions—parking-and-fee-changes
In Auckland, residents' parking costs $70. In Christchurch, it costs $54. Neither city had plans to increase those fees in the near future.
Wellington's residents have until the eighth of May to make submissions.
Some spoken to by RNZ said the fee increases were too steep, while others pointed out they were privileged to park so close to the central city at such a low price.
Victoria University student Izzy Vekony said Wellington was already an incredibly expensive place to live – her rent was $200 for a room – and this would make it even harder for her to make ends meet.
"I already pay $130 to park outside my house and half the time I'm not even guaranteed a park," she said. "So I guess I don't see the need for an increase when half the time I don't get what I'm paying for."
Another resident described the residents' parking situation as "diabolical" because she sometimes had to park on a different street.
Wellington City councillor Iona Pannett says we need to reclaim our streets for children. Photo: RNZ / YouTube
A council spokesperson said there were about 2300 resident parking spaces available across the city, with 40 | 479 |
Wisdom of Life.: Buy when you don't need it.... Please remember.
Two years ago, on reviewing two of my clients' personal life insurance covers, I reminded them to top up their needed medical needs. One is a medical doctor, who insisted that medical insurance wasn't very important as he himself is a professional doctor knew how to take care of himself. The other is a professional legal adviser, refused to accept my suggestions to upgrade her low medical benefits. My advices were totally rejected, and both were very arrogance with their views. I felt so sorry for them, and had to accept their point of views at that moment of time.
Almost at the same time, three months ago my above doctor friend was admitted for a severe heart disease and was hospitalized for two months. And the legal advisor was admitted for a suspected ovarian cancer. Both their admission bills were paid by our company. It cost them a huge amount of money for all the needed medical treatments. On returning home from the hospitals, both called to seek my advices to upgrade their covers immediately. They claimed that they had recovered and would be happy to sign up for more medical insurance now. They were willing to sign and willing to pay, but<|fim_middle|> rate when you are young and healthy, compared to waiting years and paying a lot more for coverage. | deep down in my heart I knew it was really too late to buy life insurance any more. Not to discourage them, my suggestion was... let's wait until you have fully recovered, when your attending doctor could give you a favourable medical report.
The toughest part of selling life insurance is when you meet too intelligent prospects who think that they won't die too early or would not get sick at all. And the funny thing with my product is... Buy Life Insurance when you don't need it, cause when you need it you can't buy. My story speaks the truth.
The best time to purchase life insurance is when you realize you have an actual need for coverage. Don;t wait when you have a need. Because your health may change and you may not qualify for the life insurance policy. you need. And, you can get a better | 169 |
<|fim_middle|> progress. Although the Sounders won the CONCACAF Champions League last year, the popular perception is that the Mexican league is still the top spot in North America. From a popularity standpoint, this isn't in question – Liga MX has consistently found a larger TV audience in the US than MLS – but it's reasonable to assume that it retains many fans based on the idea that it's the better product.
While there is a natural rivalry between the leagues inherent in their closeness, it is more than just a collaboration. As co-hosts of the 2026 World Cup, the United States, Mexico and Canada have an incredible incentive to generate as much collective enthusiasm for the sport as possible over the next three and a half years.
"Anyone involved in soccer in the United States, Mexico or Canada, we look at the World Cup as a northern star that we can work together over the coming years to continue to build the game so that when the World Cup is here we can use it as rocket fuel to help develop the game."
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Thiago Almada became the first active Major League Soccer player to win the World Cup when Argentina triumphed in Qatar last month. Jose Breton/PixAction/NurPhoto via Getty Images
Growing up in Southern California in the early 1990s, John Thorrington was as avid football fan as he could be. He played competitively – he eventually signed with Manchester United at the age of 17 – but the American sports scene, with its lack of television or domestic league options, made it virtually impossible to create widespread passion for the game.
"I was thinking back when we hosted the World Cup [in 1994] How different that was, said Thorrington. "I've never seen such a high-profile game live in my life. I was 14 when it came here and I saw the interest it generated. Then the league started."
Major League Soccer's growth often seems like it's progressing at a slow pace, but there's never been a better representation of just how far the league has come than in Qatar for the World Cup. Aside from the top five leagues in the world – in England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain – MLS has had more rostered players (36) than anywhere else. It was represented by more countries (12) than any league outside the top five, and for the first time in the league's history, had a player on the winning team: Argentine Thiago Almada (Atlanta United).
None of this means the standard of play is anywhere near the highest in Europe, but for a league to have this kind of World Cup impact despite its relative youth is as impressive an achievement as any MLS has ever had.
"If you think about what the World Cup means in global football, where every country chooses its best players and pretty much the best teams out there," Torrington said. "I think it says a lot about the league and our increasing level of participation in terms of the number of players as well as the countries that MLS players represent."
Consider this: At 14 years old, Thorrington has never seen a top-level football game in person, and he lives in a country that doesn't have a professional league. At the age of 43, he celebrated the MLS Cup as co-chairman and general manager of one of the two Los Angeles-based teams, LAFC, which featured five World Cup players.
During the first match of the tournament, Sebastian Mendes – a reserve midfielder at LAFC after being acquired on a mid-season deal – started for Ecuador against hosts Qatar and was one of the best players on the field. The next day, Gareth Bale – who had chosen to come to LAFC to help prepare for Wales' first World Cup appearance since 1958 – captained his country against the United States. While the USA only started one MLS player in that game (Nashville SC's Walker Zimmerman), three others came off the bench (Inter Miami's DeAndre Yedlin, LAFC's Kelen Acosta and Seattle Sounders forward Jordan Morris). Several other players either played in the league previously or were developed by MLS clubs.
"It's unbelievable. When I first started in the league, it certainly didn't have that much of an impact [globally]said Yedlin. Anytime you see growth, it's positive and it's growing very quickly. So, it just goes to show that MLS has become one of the biggest leagues in the world. This is great for American football."
– Stream on ESPN+: LaLiga, Bundesliga, more (US)
If all goes as designed, there will be a lower presence on the US roster when the tournament returns to North America in 2026, which would mean a higher percentage of players in the big leagues in Europe. The hope, from an MLS perspective, is that these are the players who get into the league—starting at the academic level—and use MLS as a springboard to their professional career. At the same time, expect clubs to increasingly pursue young foreign players who can make an immediate impact in the league and use these performances to break into their national teams.
Almada, 21, is the perfect example. It was evident from a young age that he was a talented player, but his debut for the full Argentine national team did not come until September, near the end of his first season with Atlanta.
"Years ago, this wouldn't have happened," MLS Commissioner Don Garber told ESPN in Qatar. "The national team coach will say, 'Hey, if you go to play in Major League Soccer, you won't be part of the national team group.'" That has changed dramatically. We now have our games scouted by the national teams because they've seen this success playing for a club. MLS and how that continued their development, made them become a better player who could eventually become a better player in the national team."
Garber never strayed from the league's long-term goal of becoming one of the best leagues in the world. How that is defined has always been a bit of an explanation. What constitutes "the best in the world" anyway? If it's the top five, there are years — perhaps decades — of work to be done. There's a good chance that will never happen. If it's in the top ten, there are some compelling arguments it might already be in MLS.
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"It's really hard, and here I'd say you can use a varying number of metrics to try to get quality: money spent, head-to-head competitions – and that's really hard because MLS hasn't had that experience," Thorrington said. . "Almost everyone comes from a stronger league – and I've had these conversations, we've had these players – they come to MLS and you talk to them, whether it's Wayne Rooney, whether it's Thierry Henry, whether it's Carlos Vela, any of those players, playing in MLS is an experience." amazing.
"It's really hard to measure an MLS team based on MLS conditions and the special nature of the travel climate and the humidity and all the rest…and try to transfer that to another local league."
We'll get one interesting point on February 2, when the Seattle Sounders become the first MLS team to play in the Club World Cup against winners from Auckland City (New Zealand) and Al-Ahly (Egypt), a chance to play against Real Madrid. But even then, the small sample size of Seattle's participation in Morocco — in the midst of the 2023 preseason — precludes any useful lessons.
This summer's League Cup – a new World Cup-style tournament featuring Liga MX and MLS clubs – is another opportunity for MLS to measure its | 1,424 |
Towson men's lacrosse swings momentum late in 8-6 victory over UMBC
By Rich Scherr
Mar 03, 2018 | 5:55 PM
Off to a 1-3 start and facing the prospect of three straight top-10 opponents over the next three weeks, Towson entered Saturday's matchup against crosstown-rival UMBC in desperate need of a win.
The host Tigers finally acted like it in the game's waning minutes after more than three quarters of uneven play.
Junior Jon Mazza scored a game-high five goals, including three in the fourth quarter, as Towson rallied from a one-goal deficit to score four straight in an 8-6 win before a sparse, wind-blown crowd at Johnny Unitas Stadium.
Preston: Connor Kelly leads Maryland's offensive show with 10 points in win over Notre Dame
By Mike Preston
"Each game we've gotten better and better," said Mazza, who had a career-high seven points. "To come back and win like that, it's a huge confidence booster for us."
The Tigers had put together strong efforts in back-to-back games against Georgetown and Loyola Maryland in the previous seven days, only to fall apart late in each.
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"To be able to dig in in the fourth quarter, which has been a little of our issue to this point of the season, was something I was excited about," Towson coach Shawn Nadelen said.
T<|fim_middle|> said. "I think our biggest challenge is … not beating ourselves, not being our toughest opponent."
Most Read • College Lacrosse
Never looking too far ahead kept women's lacrosse player Kelly Rabil on course for another World Cup | owson (2-3) received a dominant performance from junior Alex Woodall (St. Mary's), who won 15 of 18 faceoffs, including all nine in the second half. He had entered the day winning 65.5 percent of his chances.
That would've mattered little if not for a game-changing sequence early in the fourth quarter.
Trailing 5-4, the Tigers pulled even when Mazza curled around the back of the net and fired a low shot that beat freshman goalie Tommy Lingner. UMBC's bench was whistled for an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty, giving Towson a man advantage for a minute.
Mazza then scored his second goal in 38 seconds, on an extra-man opportunity from 15 yards in front, and Towson never relinquished the lead.
"That was kind of a huge momentum swing right there," Retrievers coach Ryan Moran said. "I would say, for the first three quarters and first four minutes of the fourth, I was feeling really good. Then, obviously, that happens. Credit them for being organized and canning their opportunities on the man-up. That really was a big two-goal swing."
"We made a couple mistakes in the first half and the third quarter, so to have an opportunity like that was huge," Mazza said.
Goals by Grant Maloof (South River) and Mazza later in the quarter sealed the win for Towson, which now has beaten UMBC seven straight times, improving to 34-15 in the all-time series. The Retrievers (1-3) have not beaten the Tigers at Towson since 2008.
This marks the fourth straight season in which UMBC has lost three straight games. Each of the past three ended with sub-.500 records.
For much of this one, the Retrievers seemed in control, with freshmen Trevor Patschorke (Severna Park) and Ben Keller scoring three and two goals, respectively, and their defense forcing 15 turnovers. UMBC led 5-4 before going the next 18:41 without a goal.
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It's that kind of defensive effort that Nadelen hopes continues in upcoming games against No. 6 Ohio State, No. 3 Duke and No. 5 Denver.
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"We know that wins aren't easy, regardless of who you're playing," Nadelen | 601 |
Airtel Triggers 5G War: Becomes 1st Telco To Test 5G Network; Claims 1<|fim_middle|>G service commercially. He assured that whenever Airtel will provide 5G service it won't be just a marketing stunt but provide actual full power 5G speed.
Nevertheless, he also said that the telecom operator believes in delivering experience.Therefore, even though 5G can be generated using 1800, 2300 and 2100 MHz frequency, the company will wait for the release of mid-band so that 5G can be delivered to its true potential.
Moreover, Vittal also stressed on the fact that since the company has been working for an entire year, implementing 5G is just a 'flick of a button'. Still waiting for an adequate 5G spectrum is wiser than releasing the high speed service in this current matured 4G ecosystem.
What Are The Challenges That Airtel Can Face?
According to the Partner and head of Analysys Mason, Rohan Dhamija, the biggest issue for Airtel while establishing 5G network will be updating all its current 4G websites to comply with 5G service. He also added that this will require the telco to invest a lot of time and capital expenditure.
On the contrary, Airtel claims that this won't be the problem for it as its websites are already capacity to support 5G services. The chief technology officer of Airtel, Randeep Sekhon, shared that the company also has around a million active 5G devices priced around Rs 25,000 in its network.
However, he also affirmed that to target the masses the price range of these devices will have to be reduced to Rs 10,000 to Rs 15,000. The reason for which 4G got accepted widely was because of its affordability. Hence, Airtel is ready to work with all the device partners to bring 5G smartphones and make them support the changing spectrum.
In addition to this, Vittal also expressed the need for acceptance of a global 5G standard natively made in India since it will open doors for more innovation.
What Is Airtel Experimenting with?
According to the authorities, Airtel is also collaborating with several companies to explore the OpenRAN technology and 3GPP-approved NSA (Non-Stand Alone) and SA (Stand Alone) to introduce 5G at lower cost in India. On the other hand, Jio is rooting up to SA to deploy 5G.
The prices of 5G services are unknown as of now since it is too soon to predict. Looking at the current race of telecoms, one thing that can be assured is that high speed 5G service is going to hit the market very soon.
5Gairtel
Pratyancha Dhore 128 posts 0 comments
A computer engineer who likes to write her feels along with codes. She is a marketing enthusiast who loves understanding businesses and decoding startups.
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By Pratyancha Dhore Last updated Jan 29, 2021
We had reported earlier that Reliance Jio is all set to carry out test the 5G speeds. But the recent news suggests that while Reliance Jio is running ahead in the race of achieving the 5th generation speed, Bharti Airtel is not far behind.
The second largest telecom company in India, Airtel, is not only planning to give a tough competition to Jio but it is also aiming to break its monopoly by being the main 5G provider in India. Looking at this battle it seems like the 5G airwaves auction is going to be very heated whenever it is announced by the government.
Has Airtel Already Tested Its 5G Network?
After Mukesh Ambani promised to launch its 5G network in the later half of next year, Airtel is also gearing up to bring 5G to the Indian audience.
Reportedly, Airtel has already performed 5G tests using 1800MHz bandwidth on its 4G network in Hyderabad. The telco also claimed that it can provide 5G service with the help of 4G band but said that it will wait for the government to release 5G airwaves.
What Is Stopping Airtel From Releasing Its 5G services?
The Chief executive at Airtel, Gopal Vittal, is positive that his company is prepared enough to provide 5 | 317 |
\section{Introduction}
\label{sec: Introduction}
One of the fundamental features of our Solar System is the near-coplanarity of the planetary orbits. The orbital inclinations of the Solar System planets relative to the invariable plane
are a few degrees or less, with the exception of Mercury, which is inclined by $6^{\circ}$. This coplanarity was one of the key observables leading to the nebular hypothesis \citep{Kant1755, Laplace1796} and the modern-day paradigm of planet formation in thin gaseous disks \citep[e.g.][]{2011ARA&A..49..195A}. It is unclear whether most planetary systems retain their primordially small inclinations (like the Solar System) or develop larger misalignments. Accordingly, constraining the mutual inclination distribution of exoplanetary systems is a large-scale objective with fundamental implications for planet formation theory \citep[e.g.][]{2013ApJ...775...53H} and population statistics \citep[e.g.][]{2012AJ....143...94T}.
Although the transit and Doppler methods do not generally reveal the
mutual inclinations of multiple-planet systems
without further assumptions,
there have still been several advancements in our knowledge of the mutual inclinations of the population of short-period ($P \lesssim 1$ yr), tightly-packed systems discovered by the Kepler mission \citep{2010Sci...327..977B, 2013ApJS..204...24B, 2011ApJS..197....8L, 2014ApJ...790..146F}. (See \citealt{2021arXiv210302127Z} for a recent review.) Roughly half of Sun-like stars host these short-period planets \citep{2015ARA&A..53..409W, 2018ApJ...860..101Z, 2019MNRAS.490.4575H, 2020AJ....159..164Y}, most of which are likely in multi-planet (but not necessarily multi-transiting) systems \citep{2018AJ....156...24M, 2020AJ....160..276H}. Such systems will be our primary focus in this paper.
Kepler systems of multiple-transiting planets (``Kepler multis'') are nearly coplanar on average \citep[e.g.][]{2011ApJS..197....8L}.\footnote{Ultra-short-period planets are a notable exception \citep{2018ApJ...864L..38D}.} This conclusion has
been reached by analyzing, for instance, the distribution of ratios of transit chord lengths between pairs of planets within the same system
\citep{2010ApJ...725.1226S, 2012ApJ...761...92F, 2014ApJ...790..146F}. According to these studies, at least half of Kepler systems have mutual inclinations that are consistent with a Rayleigh distribution with scale parameter $\sigma_i \sim 1^{\circ} - 2^{\circ}$.
Within the Kepler sample, there is also evidence for a subset of systems with larger mutual inclinations, based on analyses of the observed transiting multiplicity distribution. Inferences from this distribution are difficult, though, because it depends on both the intrinsic multiplicity distribution and the mutual inclination distribution \citep[e.g.][]{2011ApJS..197....8L, 2012AJ....143...94T}. To break the degeneracy,
additional assumptions
or observations are required, such as inputs from radial velocity (RV) surveys or the incidence of transit-timing variations (TTVs).
Several studies used statistical planet population models to fit the observed transiting multiplicity distribution of Kepler systems \citep[e.g.][]{2011ApJS..197....8L, 2012AJ....143...94T, 2012ApJ...761...92F, 2016ApJ...816...66B}. These studies identified an apparent excess of single transiting systems (``singles''), compared to
the number of singles one would expect if all planetary systems have the same $\sim1^{\circ}-2^{\circ}$ mutual inclination dispersion (and intrinsic multiplicity distribution) of the transit multis. This apparent discrepancy between the observed and expected number of singles is known as the ``Kepler dichotomy'', and it is sometimes interpreted as evidence for two (or more) planet populations with distinct architectures \citep[e.g.][]{2011ApJS..197....8L, 2012ApJ...758...39J, 2013ApJ...775...53H, 2016ApJ...816...66B}. Biases due to detection order in multiple-transiting systems likely contribute to the Kepler dichotomy \citep{2019MNRAS.483.4479Z} but cannot entirely explain it \citep{2019MNRAS.490.4575H}.
One proposed resolution to the Kepler dichotomy is to invoke a substantial fraction of intrinsically single-planet systems \citep{2012ApJ...761...92F, 2019MNRAS.489.3162S}. While such a model can fit the observed multiplicity distribution, \cite{2019MNRAS.490.4575H} showed that it is an unlikely
explanation because it requires too many stars to have only one planet. Specifically, after assigning nearly coplanar multi-planet systems to target stars with an occurrence derived from the transiting multi-planet systems, the remaining proportion of stars is not large enough to account for the observed number of transit
singles. Moreover, the observed incidence of TTVs of Kepler planets does not provide evidence for a large population of intrinsic singles \citep{2011ApJS..197....2F, 2016ApJS..225....9H}.
\begin{figure*}
\epsscale{1.1}
\plotone{geometric_diagram_v2.pdf}
\caption{Schematic illustration of the physical set-up and concept of this study. A transiting planet experiences orbital precession induced by secular perturbations from a companion planet, which is non-transiting in this illustration. The orbital precession leads to changes in the transiting planet's inclination with respect to the line-of-sight (but not to the invariable plane) and the transit duration, $T_{\mathrm{dur}}$, here defined as the duration during which the center of the planet is projected in front of the stellar disk. Over long timescales ($10^{2-3}$ years), these transit duration variations (TDVs) manifest as an oscillation at the orbital precession period, as indicated with the example time evolution plot on the bottom left. However, over short timescales, such as the $\sim 4$ year baseline of the Kepler prime mission, the TDVs manifest as a linear trend with slope $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$. This is indicated with the zoom-in on the bottom right. The TDV slope depends on the mutual orbital inclinations. Examining the TDVs of an ensemble of planets thus allows us to place constraints on the distribution of mutual inclinations.}
\label{fig: geometric diagram}
\end{figure*}
The leading explanation of the Kepler dichotomy is that there is a distribution of mutual inclinations that includes a substantial fraction of systems with low mutual inclinations and a separate fraction of systems with significantly larger mutual inclinations. For example, there might be two (or more) sub-populations, one with $1^{\circ}-2^{\circ}$ mutual inclinations and one with $>30^{\circ}$ mutual inclinations. An alternative is a smooth distribution, such as a model in which the inclinations are drawn from a Rayleigh distribution with a width parameter that is itself a variable drawn from a smooth distribution \citep[e.g.][]{2011ApJS..197....8L} or that depends on the number
of planets in the system
\citep[e.g.][]{2016ApJ...832...34M, 2018ApJ...860..101Z}. However, both the statistical properties and physical origins of these variations are uncertain.
Recently, \cite{2019MNRAS.490.4575H, 2020AJ....160..276H} built a forward modeling framework capable of fitting a statistical description of the underlying planet population to the survey data by ``observing'' simulated planetary systems with the Kepler detection pipeline. \cite{2019MNRAS.490.4575H}, hereafter \citetalias{2019MNRAS.490.4575H}, showed that the observed multiplicity distribution (together with several other aspects of the Kepler population, including the distributions of orbital periods, period ratios, transit depths, depth ratios, and transit durations) can be described by two populations consisting of a low and high mutual inclination component, with $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{low}}\approx1^{\circ}-2^{\circ}$, $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}\approx30^{\circ}-65^{\circ}$, and $\sim40
\%$ of systems having high mutual inclinations. \citetalias{2019MNRAS.490.4575H}'s findings are similar to \cite{2018AJ....156...24M}, who used an analogous forward modeling framework and also found the data to be compatible with a dichotomous two-population model.
A more recent model by \cite{2020AJ....160..276H}, hereafter \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}, showed that the observations can also be reproduced when the mutual inclinations (and eccentricities) are distributed according to a stability limit dictated by the system's total angular momentum deficit \citep{2017A&A...605A..72L}. An interesting prediction of this model is an inverse correlation between the mutual inclination dispersion and the intrinsic multiplicity that is well-described by a power law, $\sigma_{i,n}\propto n^{\alpha}$ (with $n$ the multiplicity and $\alpha<0$). This feature is qualitatively similar to the model of \cite{2018ApJ...860..101Z}, and both lead to the same key conclusion that the mutual inclination distribution does not necessarily have to be dichotomous, but rather it can be characterized by a broad and multiplicity-dependent distribution.
The \citetalias{2019MNRAS.490.4575H} and \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H} models provide comparably good fits to the observations, which again reflects the fundamental degeneracy between the intrinsic multiplicity and mutual inclination distributions. Breaking this degeneracy requires an extra source of information, such as data from RVs \citep{2012AJ....143...94T, 2012A&A...541A.139F} or TTVs \citep{2018ApJ...860..101Z}. In this work, we consider transit duration variations (TDVs) as a hitherto unexploited source of extra information that is highly sensitive to the mutual inclination distribution. Secular (long-term average) planet-planet interactions lead to apsidal and nodal precession of the orbits on a timescale of $10^{2-3}$ years for typical Kepler planets \citep{2019NatAs...3..424M}. As first pointed out by \cite{2002ApJ...564.1019M}, this orbital precession leads to variations in the transit duration of transiting planets that manifest as a slow drift on observable timescales (see Figure \ref{fig: geometric diagram}). The drift timescale is sensitive to mutual inclinations because the signal goes as $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}\propto \dot{\Omega}P\sin{i}$ \citep{2002ApJ...564.1019M}, where $i$ is the transiting planet's inclination with respect to the invariable plane and $\Omega$ is the longitude of the ascending node. Moreover, TDVs of planets in single-transiting systems encode information about inclined, non-transiting companion planets.
TDV signals have been detected for $\sim30$ Kepler planets \citep{2016ApJS..225....9H, 2019AJ....157..171K, 2021MNRAS.tmp.1312S}. Notable examples include Kepler-108 \citep{2017AJ....153...45M}, Kepler-693 \citep{2017AJ....154...64M}, and Kepler-9 \citep{2018A&A...618A..41F, 2019MNRAS.484.3233B}. The TDVs have led to mutual inclination constraints in these systems. In other examples \citep[e.g.][]{2012Natur.487..449S}, an absence of TDVs has been used as evidence for low mutual inclinations. Recently, \cite{2020AJ....159..207B} investigated observed planets that are the best candidates for exhibiting detectable TDV signals in near-future observations. In addition, \cite{2020AJ....159..223D} described how to use TDVs to infer systems' three-dimensional architectures. While this paper was in review, \cite{2021MNRAS.tmp.1312S} published a new comprehensive analysis of TDVs of Kepler planets, building off of \cite{2016ApJS..225....9H}. Overall, their results are complementary to this work; where relevant, we will discuss specific comparisons.
Here we use TDVs to constrain the mutual inclination distribution of Kepler systems. We accomplish this by comparing the TDV statistics of the observed planet population to expectations from simulated planet populations constructed by the forward models of \citetalias{2019MNRAS.490.4575H} and \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}. Both models reproduce many aspects of the Kepler survey statistics, but they have significantly different intrinsic mutual inclination distributions. In Section \ref{sec: analytic calculation}, we describe the relevant equations for orbital precession-induced TDVs, including an analytic calculation of $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$. In Section \ref{sec: methods}, we describe our methods for calculating the TDVs of the simulated planets and comparing their properties to the observed Kepler planets with TDVs. We summarize our results in Section \ref{sec: results}. Namely, we show that the TDV statistics of the observed planets strongly support the non-dichotomous model of \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H} and disfavor the dichotomous model of \citetalias{2019MNRAS.490.4575H}. In Section \ref{sec: discussion}, we review the proposed theories for generating mutual inclinations among Kepler planets and discuss which are most consistent with our results.
\section{Analytic Calculation of Transit Duration Variations}
\label{sec: analytic calculation}
We begin with an analytic calculation of a planet's transit duration variation (TDV), which is related to the time derivative of its transit duration, $T_{\mathrm{dur}}$. Our derivation bears resemblance to that of \cite{2002ApJ...564.1019M}, but we allow for arbitrary eccentricities rather than assume circular orbits. We will consider the orbital evolution to be secular, with the semi-major axis, $a$, approximately constant. In this case, the time evolution of $T_{\mathrm{dur}}$ is driven by orbital precession of the longitude of the ascending node, $\Omega$, and the argument of periapse, $\omega$, as well as changes in the orbital eccentricity, $e$. Our goal is to relate $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ to $\dot{\Omega}$, $\dot{\omega}$<|fim_middle|>cos{i}\cos{\beta} + \sin{i}\sin{\beta}}.
\label{eq: omega_sky and omega relationship}
\end{equation}
Here, $\beta$ is the fixed angle between the invariable plane and the line of sight. Put another way, $\beta = \pi/2 - i_{\mathrm{inv}}$, where $i_{\mathrm{inv}}$ is the angle between the invariable plane and the sky plane.
Taking the time derivative of equation \ref{eq: Tdur} yields
\begin{equation}
\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}} = - T_{\mathrm{dur}}\bigg[\dot{b}\frac{b}{(1-b^2)} + \frac{\dot{v}_{\mathrm{mid}}}{v_{\mathrm{mid}}}\bigg].
\label{eq: dTdur/dt}
\end{equation}
The time derivatives $\dot{b}$ and $\dot{v}_{\mathrm{mid}}$ are driven by orbital precession of the longitude of the ascending node and the argument of periapse, as well as changes in the orbital eccentricity. These are parameterized by $\dot{\omega}$, $\dot{\Omega}$, and $\dot{e}$, respectively. As for the first term in equation \ref{eq: dTdur/dt}, we can compute $\dot{b}$ by using the definition of the dimensionless impact parameter,
\begin{equation}
b = \frac{r_{\mathrm{mid}}\sin{\alpha}}{R_{\star}},
\label{eq: b}
\end{equation}
where $r_{\mathrm{mid}}$ is the star-planet separation at mid-transit,
\begin{equation}
r_{\mathrm{mid}} = \frac{a(1-e^2)}{1+e\sin{\omega_{\mathrm{sky}}}}.
\label{r_mid}
\end{equation}
The quantity $\alpha$ is the angle between the orbital plane of the planet and the line of sight. (Alternatively, $\alpha = \pi/2 - i_{\mathrm{sky}}$, where $i_{\mathrm{sky}}$ is the orbital inclination with respect to the sky plane.) This angle is related to the other angles in the problem via \citep{2020AJ....160..195J}
\begin{equation}
\label{eq: sin(alpha)}
\sin\alpha = -\sin{i}\cos{\Omega}\cos{\beta} + \cos{i}\sin{\beta}.
\end{equation}
Using these relationships, we obtain
\begin{comment}
\begin{equation}
\dot{b} = -\dot{\Omega}\left(\frac{r_{\mathrm{mid}}}{R_{\star}}\right)\sin{i}\cos{\beta}\sin{\Omega},
\end{equation}
\end{comment}
\begin{equation}
\label{eq: db/dt}
\dot{b} = \frac{1}{R_{\star}}\left[\dot{r}_{\mathrm{mid}}\sin{\alpha}+r_{\mathrm{mid}}\dot{\Omega}\sin{i}\cos{\beta}\sin{\Omega}\right],
\end{equation}
where $\dot{r}_{\mathrm{mid}}$ can be calculated from equation \ref{r_mid},
\begin{equation}
\dot{r}_{\mathrm{mid}} = \frac{a[-2e\dot{e}(1+e\sin\omega_{\mathrm{sky}}) - (1-e^2)\frac{\mathrm{d}}{\mathrm{d}t}(e\sin\omega_{\mathrm{sky}})]}{(1+e\sin\omega_{\mathrm{sky}})^2}.
\end{equation}
As for the second term in the expression for $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ (equation \ref{eq: dTdur/dt}), $\dot{v}_{\mathrm{mid}}$ can be calculated by differentiating equation \ref{eq: vmid}
\begin{equation}
\dot{v}_{\mathrm{mid}} = na\frac{\dot{e}(e + \sin{\omega_{\mathrm{sky}}}) + \dot{\omega}_{\mathrm{sky}}e\cos{\omega_{\mathrm{sky}}} (1-e^2)}{(1-e^2)^{\frac{3}{2}}}.
\end{equation}
We can relate this expression to $\omega$ and $\dot{\omega}$ by using equation \ref{eq: omega_sky and omega relationship}, from which $\dot{\omega}$ can be calculated straightforwardly, recalling that both $\beta$ and $i$ are held fixed.
\subsection{Lagrange's Planetary Equations}
Equipped with the analytic formula for $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ in terms of $\dot{\Omega}$, $\dot{\omega}$, and $\dot{e}$, we now move on to the analytic calculations of these three latter quantities.
Lagrange's planetary equations yield \citep{1999ssd..book.....M}
\begin{equation}
\label{eq: Lagrange's planetary equations}
\begin{split}
\dot{e} &= -\frac{\sqrt{1-e^2}}{n a^2 e}\frac{\partial\mathcal{R}}{\partial\varpi} \\
\dot{\Omega} &= \frac{1}{n a^2 \sqrt{1-e^2}\sin{i}}\frac{\partial\mathcal{R}}{\partial i} \\
\dot{\varpi} &= \dot{\Omega} + \dot{\omega} = \frac{\sqrt{1-e^2}}{n a^2 e}\frac{\partial\mathcal{R}}{\partial e} + \frac{\tan{\frac{1}{2}i}}{n a^2 \sqrt{1-e^2}}\frac{\partial\mathcal{R}}{\partial i}.
\end{split}
\end{equation}
Here, $\mathcal{R}$ is the disturbing function, or the non-Keplerian perturbing gravitational potential experienced by the planets due to their mutual interactions. We adopt a secular expansion of $\mathcal{R}$ to fourth-order in $e$ and ${s\equiv\sin(i/2)}$ using the Appendix tables from \cite{1999ssd..book.....M}. The resulting disturbing function expansion is provided in Appendix \ref{sec: Appendix disturbing function expansion}.
\subsection{Comparison of analytic TDV to \textit{N}-body}
\label{sec: comparison to N-body}
In Appendix \ref{sec: Appendix comparison of analytic TDV to N-body}, we assess the accuracy of the analytic calculation of $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ by showing how it compares to a direct $N$-body computation. We demonstrate that the analytic calculation performs well when inclinations are low, $i \lesssim 10^{\circ}$. In this regime, the analytic $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ is within $50\%$ of the $N$-body $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ in roughly three quarters of cases. However, when inclinations are larger than $\sim10^{\circ}$, there can be orders-of-magnitude discrepancies between the analytic calculation and the $N$-body result. This occurs because the disturbing function expansion breaks down for large $e$ and $i$, leading to perturbations in the equations for $\dot{e}$, $\dot{\Omega}$, and $\dot{\varpi}$. As we will describe in Section \ref{sec: TDV calculation}, this accuracy problem ultimately limits the applicability of the analytic $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ calculation.
\section{Methods}
\label{sec: methods}
Our goal is to constrain the underlying distribution of Kepler planet mutual inclinations by comparing the TDVs of the observed Kepler planets to those of various simulated planet populations with different mutual inclination distributions. In this section, we describe our methods. We define our observed and simulated planet populations in Sections \ref{sec: observations} and \ref{sec: simulations}, respectively. We then explain the procedure for identifying detectable TDVs of the simulated planets in Section \ref{sec: name this subsection}.
\subsection{Observations: TDVs of Kepler Planets}
\label{sec: observations}
\setlength{\extrarowheight}{2pt}
\setlength\tabcolsep{15pt}
\begin{table*}[t]
\centering
\caption{\textbf{KOIs with Significant TDV Slopes.} List of KOIs from the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} TDV catalog with $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|> 3 \ \sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}$ that pass our additional cuts on planet and stellar properties. $N_{\mathrm{obs}}$ is the observed transit multiplicity of the system according to the Kepler DR25 catalog \citep{2018ApJS..235...38T}. Orbital periods are drawn from DR25; planetary radii are from \cite{2020AJ....160..108B}; and the $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ measurements are from the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} TDV catalog.}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c}
\hline
\hline
KOI & Kepler name & $N_{\mathrm{obs}}$ & $P$ [days] & $R_p$ [$R_{\oplus}$] & $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ [min/yr] \\
\hline
103.01 & -- & 1 & 14.911 & $2.55^{+0.06}_{-0.05}$ & $5.0\pm1.1$\\
137.02 & Kepler-18 d & 3 & 14.859 & $5.16^{+0.09}_{-0.11}$ & $1.73\pm0.41$ \\
139.01 & Kepler-111 c & 2 & 224.779 & $6.91^{+0.16}_{-0.17}$ & $8.1\pm2.0$ \\
142.01 & Kepler-88 b & 1 & 10.916 & $3.84^{+0.08}_{-0.31}$ & $1.98\pm0.58$ \\
209.02 & Kepler-117 b & 2 & 18.796 & $8.36^{+0.33}_{-0.52}$ & $2.98\pm0.82$ \\
377.01 & Kepler-9 b & 3 & 19.271 & $7.9^{+0.16}_{-0.16}$ & $1.64\pm0.3$ \\
377.02 & Kepler-9 c & 3 & 38.908 & $8.14^{+0.18}_{-0.18}$ & $-4.58\pm0.56$ \\
460.01 & Kepler-559 b & 2 & 17.588 & $3.41^{+0.11}_{-0.09}$ & $6.0\pm1.5$ \\
806.01 & Kepler-30 d & 3 & 143.206 & $8.79^{+0.49}_{-0.31}$ & $6.3\pm1.9$ \\
841.02 & Kepler-27 c & 5 & 31.33 & $6.24^{+0.24}_{-0.28}$ & $3.6\pm1.1$ \\
872.01 & Kepler-46 b & 2 & 33.601 & $7.45^{+0.2}_{-0.26}$ & $5.78\pm0.83$ \\
1320.01 & Kepler-816 b & 1 & 10.507 & $9.44^{+0.46}_{-0.36}$ & $-1.88\pm0.44$ \\
1423.01 & Kepler-841 b & 1 & 124.42 & $5.02^{+0.25}_{-0.19}$ & $3.7\pm1.1$ \\
1856.01 & -- & 1 & 46.299 & $2.24^{+0.08}_{-0.05}$ & $-11.8\pm3.1$ \\
2698.01 & Kepler-1316 b & 1 & 87.972 & $3.4^{+0.11}_{-0.08}$ & $18.1\pm4.5$ \\
2770.01 & -- & 1 & 205.386 & $2.26^{+0.13}_{-0.08}$ & $19.4\pm6.4$ \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\label{tab: KOIs with TDVs}
\end{table*}
We first identify a set of Kepler planets with significant TDVs. These planets will later be compared to the simulated planets. As part of their comprehensive catalog of TTV measurements for 2599 Kepler Objects of Interest (KOIs) across the full 17 quarters of the Kepler mission, \cite{2016ApJS..225....9H} (hereafter \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H}) also measured transit depths and durations. The duration and depth measurements were limited to cases with $T_{\mathrm{dur}} > 1.5$ hr and $\mathrm{SNR} > 10$, where SNR is the signal-to-noise per transit.
As a result, a total of 779 KOIs have duration and depth measurements. These were then analyzed for any TDVs or TPVs (transit depth variations) by identifying potentially significant periodicities or long term trends. The long term trends, quantified by the TDV slope $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$, are the most relevant for our analysis, as these are the expected signal of duration drifts induced by orbital precession.
\citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} summarized their results for TDVs in the in the \texttt{TDV\_statistics.txt}
file at \href{ftp://wise-ftp.tau.ac.il/pub/tauttv/TTV/ver_112}{ftp://wise-ftp.tau.ac.il/pub/tauttv/TTV/ver\_112}. We will refer to this as the ``\citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} TDV catalog''. In particular, the quantities that are relevant to our analysis are the slope of the TDV measurements and the estimated error of the slope. We apply several cuts to the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} TDV catalog to establish a list of observed planets with detected TDVs.
\begin{enumerate}
\item \textit{Significant TDV slope:} We consider a detectable transit duration drift to be one with ${|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|> 3 \ \sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}}$. A total of 31 KOIs pass this criterion.
\footnote{\cite{2021MNRAS.tmp.1312S} updated the calculation of $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ from the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} TDV data and used a different definition of a significant TDV slope. This yielded a slightly different set of KOIs with significant TDV slopes but an identical number (when including those which \cite{2021MNRAS.tmp.1312S} labeled ``intermediate significance'').}
\item \textit{Cuts on planet properties:} The simulated planet population that we will introduce in Section \ref{sec: simulations} is restricted to planets with $3 \ \mathrm{days} < P < 300 \ \mathrm{days}$ and $0.5 \ R_{\oplus} < R_p < 10 \ R_{\oplus}$. Applying these cuts leaves 21 remaining KOIs. Most of the removed planets are cut for having $R_p > 10 \ R_{\oplus}$. Three have $P < 3$ days.
\item \textit{Cuts on stellar properties:} The simulated planet population is built using a curated sample of FGK dwarf stars, developed using a series of quality cuts on the Kepler DR25 target list in conjunction with target information from Gaia DR2 \citepalias{2019MNRAS.490.4575H, 2020AJ....160..276H}. We require the host stars of the observed planets to be in this cleaned stellar input catalog. After this requirement, we are left with 16 remaining KOIs.
\end{enumerate}
The final list of 16 KOIs with significant TDV slopes are shown in Table \ref{tab: KOIs with TDVs}. The 16 KOIs are part of 15 systems. Of these, seven are single-transiting systems; four are double-transiting systems; three are triple-transiting systems; and one is a quintuple-transiting system. Examples of TDV drift signals observed for Kepler-9 b and c are shown in Figure \ref{fig: Kepler-9 TDVs}.
\begin{figure}[t]
\epsscale{1.2}
\plotone{Kepler_9_TDVs.pdf}
\caption{Examples of the TDV drift signal, shown here for Kepler-9 b and c (KOI 377.01 and 377.02). The data for the TDVs, given by $\mathrm{TDV} = (T_{\mathrm{dur}} - \bar{T}_{\mathrm{dur}})/\bar{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$, is taken from \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H}. The green curves represents the best-fit lines, with slopes equal to those from the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} TDV catalog.}
\label{fig: Kepler-9 TDVs}
\end{figure}
\subsection{Simulations: SysSim Planet Populations}
\label{sec: simulations}
We consider populations of simulated planets from the SysSim (short for ``Planetary Systems Simulator'') forward modeling framework. SysSim is an empirical model that generates simulated planetary systems according to flexibly parameterized statistical descriptions. It was first introduced by \cite{2018AJ....155..205H} and has undergone continuous development by \cite{2019AJ....158..109H}, \citetalias{2019MNRAS.490.4575H}, \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}, and \cite{2021AJ....161...16H}. The model has been calibrated using a range of summary statistics of the observed Kepler planet population, including (but not limited to) the observed distributions of multiplicities, orbital periods and period ratios, transit depths and depth ratios, and transit durations. SysSim is implemented in the Julia programming language \citep{2014arXiv1411.1607B} within the ExoplanetsSysSim.jl package. Both the core SysSim code (\href{https://github.com/ExoJulia/ExoplanetsSysSim.jl}{https://github.com/ExoJulia/ExoplanetsSysSim.jl}) and the specific forward models explored in this study (\href{https://github.com/ExoJulia/SysSimExClusters}{https://github.com/ExoJulia/SysSimExClusters}) are publicly available. More information can be found in the key papers mentioned above. We provide a brief description of the model below.
The process of the SysSim forward modeling framework is to first generate an underlying population of planetary systems (``physical catalog'') according to a statistical model of the intrinsic distribution of systems. The physical catalog is a simulated realization designed to resemble the entire population of Kepler planetary systems, including planets that are not observed. The next step is to generate an observed population of planetary systems (``observed catalog'') from the physical catalog by simulating the full Kepler detection pipeline and determining which planets would be detected by the pipeline and labeled as planet candidates during the automated vetting process. This simulated observed catalog is then compared with the true Kepler planet population using a set of summary statistics and a distance function. The preceding steps are repeated iteratively in order to optimize the distance function and identify the best-fit parameters of the statistical model. Finally, Approximate Bayesian Computing is applied to approximate the posterior distributions of model parameters.
In this work, we do not implement extensions of SysSim or fit new statistical models. Rather, we examine sets of simulated catalogs from two previously optimized models from \citetalias{2019MNRAS.490.4575H} and \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}. These models effectively describe many aspects of the Kepler population statistics, and they fit the data nearly equally well. By construction, the two models are similar in most ways, but they differ primarily in the distributions of eccentricities, inclinations, and number of planets per star.
\subsubsection{Two-Rayleigh model}
\label{sec: Two-Rayleigh model}
\citetalias{2019MNRAS.490.4575H} considered independent distributions of eccentricities and inclinations. The eccentricities were drawn from a Rayleigh distribution, $e \sim \mathrm{Rayleigh}(\sigma_e)$. The mutual inclinations were drawn from one of two Rayleigh distributions, representing a low and high inclination population, with the fraction of systems belonging to the high inclination population being $f_{\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}}$.\footnote{The model also assigns mutual inclinations drawn from the low scale ($\sigma_{i,\rm low}$) for all planets near a first-order mean motion resonance (MMR) with another planet (defined as having a period ratio within 5\% greater than $(i+1):i$ for any $i = 1,2,3,4$), regardless of whether the system belongs to the high or low inclination population. Around $30\%$ of the simulated planets are near a first-order MMR, and approximately half ($f_{\rm mmr} \simeq 0.49$) of all simulated systems with at least one planet contain such a planet pair. Thus, the fraction of planetary systems where near-MMR planets are reassigned low mutual inclinations is $f_{\rm mmr} \times f_{\sigma_{i,\rm high}} = 0.21_{-0.05}^{+0.07}$.} That is,
\begin{equation}
i\sim
\begin{cases}
\mathrm{Rayleigh}(\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}), \ \ u<f_{\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}} \\
\mathrm{Rayleigh}(\sigma_{i,\mathrm{low}}), \ \ u \geq f_{\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}}, \\
\end{cases}
\end{equation}
where $u \sim \mathrm{Unif}(0,1)$.
Because of the dichotomous nature of the inclination distribution, we will call this the ``two-Rayleigh model''.
After fitting to the Kepler data, \citetalias{2019MNRAS.490.4575H} identified best-fit parameters equal to $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{low}} = 1.40^{+0.54}_{-0.39}$ deg, $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}} = 48^{+17}_{-17}$ deg, and $f_{\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}} = 0.42^{+0.08}_{-0.07}$. The high inclination component makes up nearly half of the total population of systems (and nearly a third of all planets), but the mutual inclination scale $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}$ is poorly constrained, although clearly greater than $\sim 10^{\circ}$. We note that, in this work, we use the two-Rayleigh model of \cite{2021AJ....161...16H}, which is similar to \citetalias{2019MNRAS.490.4575H} but with an additional dependence of the fraction of stars with planets on the host star color. This feature is also present in the model introduced in the next section, allowing for a better comparison.
\subsubsection{Maximum AMD model}
\label{sec: Maximum AMD model}
The second model uses a joint distribution in which the eccentricity and inclination distributions are dependent and correlated with the number of planets in a system.
This contrasts with the first model, where eccentricities and inclinations are independent of one another and of the number of planets in a system.
The second approach is based on the argument that a system's long-term orbital stability is governed by its angular momentum deficit (AMD). The AMD is defined as the difference between the total orbital angular momentum of the system and what it would be if all orbits were circular and coplanar \citep[e.g.][]{2017A&A...605A..72L}. For a system of $N$ planets, the AMD can be written as
\begin{equation}
\label{eq: AMD}
\mathrm{AMD} = \sum_{k=1}^{N}\Lambda_k(1-\sqrt{1-e_k^2}\cos{i_k}),
\end{equation}
where $\Lambda_k = M_{p,k}\sqrt{G M_{\star} a_k}$.
This quantity is effectively a measure of the dynamical excitation of the system, and it is a conserved quantity when the orbits are evolving secularly. The AMD has been shown to be a reasonable predictor of long-term stability, at least when mean-motion resonances are absent and when distant and dynamically-detached planets are not included in the AMD calculation \citep{2017A&A...605A..72L}.
The assumption of \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H} is that all systems have the critical (i.e.\ maximum) AMD for stability, calculated using the analytic criteria from \cite{2017A&A...605A..72L} and \cite{2017A&A...607A..35P}. The physical justification for this assumption is that collisional events during planet formation decrease the total AMD, such that systems may generally evolve from outside the stability limit to just inside after a sequence of collisions. While this ``maximum AMD model'' assumption breaks down at a detailed level (i.e.\ not all systems are exactly at the critical AMD), it is a useful physical framework for assigning system orbital properties and has been shown to reproduce many aspects of the Kepler data \citepalias{2020AJ....160..276H}. In this work, we are primarily interested in the model's mutual inclination and eccentricity distributions.
Given a set of planet masses and orbital periods of a system, \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H} assigned orbital properties by (1) calculating the system's critical AMD, (2) distributing the AMD among the planets per unit mass, and (3) further randomly dividing each planet's AMD to eccentricity and inclination components. This approach results in eccentricities and inclinations that are correlated with one another at the population level. Another key feature that emerges from the model is an inverse trend of inclination and eccentricity dispersion with intrinsic multiplicity. In particular, \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H} found that the median mutual inclination, $\tilde{\mu}_{i,n}$, of systems with $n = 2, 3, ..., 10$ planets is well modeled by a power-law relationship of the form
\begin{equation}
\label{eq: mutual inclination power law}
\tilde{\mu}_{i,n} = \tilde{\mu}_{i,5}\left(\frac{n}{5}\right)^{\alpha},
\end{equation}
with $\tilde{\mu}_{i,5} = 1.10^{+0.15}_{-0.11}$ and $\alpha = -1.73^{+0.09}_{-0.08}$. This power-law relationship is qualitatively similar but shallower than that inferred by \cite{2018ApJ...860..101Z}. Equation \ref{eq: mutual inclination power law} illustrates that the typical mutual inclinations of systems within the maximum AMD model are less than a few degrees, in sharp contrast with the two-Rayleigh model.
\subsubsection{Model comparison}
\label{sec: model comparison}
\begin{figure}
\epsscale{1.}
\plotone{AMD_model_i_vs_e_scatterplot.pdf}
\plotone{Two_Rayleigh_model_i_vs_e_scatterplot_sigma_i_high_20.pdf}
\plotone{Two_Rayleigh_model_i_vs_e_scatterplot_sigma_i_high_60.pdf}
\caption{Scatter plots of orbital inclinations referenced to the invariable plane ($i$) versus eccentricity ($e$) for intrinsic multi-planet systems in SysSim physical catalogs. The top panel considers a single physical catalog from the maximum AMD model. The middle and bottom panels consider physical catalogs from the two-Rayleigh model using $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}} = 20^{\circ}$ and $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}} = 60^{\circ}$, respectively. To illustrate the scatter plot density, we display a set of contours calculated using a Gaussian kernel density estimation. }
\label{fig: i vs e scatterplots}
\end{figure}
The two-Rayleigh model and maximum AMD model both fit the Kepler data roughly equally well (see \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H} Section 3.1),
but they have very different underlying inclination and eccentricity distributions. To illustrate these differences, Figure \ref{fig: i vs e scatterplots} displays scatter plots of inclinations and eccentricities of intrinsic multi-planet systems in SysSim physical catalogs. We observe that eccentricities and inclinations are strongly correlated when distributed according to the maximum AMD model. Moreover, the maximum AMD model contains considerably fewer systems with very high inclination configurations than the two-Rayleigh model. For instance, $97\%$ of the mutual inclinations are below $10^{\circ}$ in the maximum AMD example plotted in Figure \ref{fig: i vs e scatterplots}, whereas $68\%$ and $63\%$ of the inclinations are below $10^{\circ}$ in the $\sigma_{i,{\mathrm{high}}} = 20^{\circ}$ and $\sigma_{i,{\mathrm{high}}} = 60^{\circ}$ two-Rayleigh model examples, respectively.
As a caveat, we note that the simulated systems have not been evaluated for long-term orbital stability in either model. The systems in the maximum AMD model obey the AMD stability criterion by construction, but that doesn't guarantee that they are all long-term stable \citep{2021arXiv210104117C}. They are, however, more likely to be stable than the systems in the two-Rayleigh model, which frequently have very high inclinations (sometimes even $> 90^{\circ}$). This difference means that a direct comparison of the two models is slightly misleading. A stability analysis would require significant computation but would be interesting to address in future SysSim models.
\subsection{TDV calculations of SysSim Planets}
\label{sec: name this subsection}
For each the two-Rayleigh model and maximum AMD model, we aim to compare the TDVs of the simulated planets with those of the observed Kepler planets. We thus need to simulate the TDV detection process for the SysSim planets in a similar way as the true observations, which are obtained from the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} TDV catalog (Section \ref{sec: observations}). Clearly, we can only measure TDVs for planets in the observed catalog (i.e.\ that have been ``detected'' in transit), but we also need to consider whether they have parameters suitable for individual transit duration measurements and whether their TDV signal has a detectable slope. We will discuss this process in three steps: TDV measurability (Section \ref{sec: TDV measurability}), TDV calculation (Section \ref{sec: TDV calculation}), and TDV slope detectability (Section \ref{sec: TDV slope detectability}). We will then summarize the process end-to-end in Section \ref{sec: summary of the full process}.
\subsubsection{TDV measurability}
\label{sec: TDV measurability}
We must first determine which planets in a given observed catalog have transits with sufficiently high signal-to-noise (SNR) such that individual transit durations would be measurable and the planet would enter into the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} TDV catalog. We summarize this as a planet having ``TDV measurability''. \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} derived individual transit durations only when $T_{\mathrm{dur}} > 1.5$ hr and $\mathrm{SNR} > 10$; we thus apply these same thresholds to the SysSim planets.
We calculate the individual transit SNR of planets in the SysSim observed catalogs as
\begin{equation}
\label{eq: SNR}
\mathrm{SNR} = \frac{\delta}{\mathrm{CDPP_{eff}}}.
\end{equation}
Here $\delta$ is the transit depth and $\mathrm{CDPP_{eff}}$ is the effective combined differential photometric precision, given by
\begin{equation}
\label{eq: CDPP_eff}
\mathrm{CDPP_{eff}} = f_{\mathrm{CDPP}} \times \mathrm{CDPP}_{1.5 \ \mathrm{hr}}\sqrt{\frac{1.5 \ \mathrm{hr}}{T_{\mathrm{dur}}}}.
\end{equation}
$\mathrm{CDPP}_{1.5 \ \mathrm{hr}}$ is the mission average of the 1.5 hr duration combined differential photometric precision (CDPP) for the target star, taken from the Kepler Q1-Q17 DR 25 stellar catalog \citep{2018ApJS..235...38T}. Equation \ref{eq: CDPP_eff} also contains a scaling factor, $f_{\mathrm{CDPP}} < 1$, that accounts for a systematic offset in the calculated SNR compared to that of \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H}. The systematic offset arises because \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} derived the transit SNR using measurement uncertainties, rather than the CDPP. The CDPP is larger because it includes both photon noise and variability due to the star and the instrument. We identify the optimal scaling factor by calculating the SNR for the planets in the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} TDV catalog and minimizing the difference with respect to \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H}'s reported SNR values. The resulting value is $f_{\mathrm{CDPP}} = 0.8707$. Figure \ref{fig: SNR scatterplots} shows the calculated SNR versus the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} SNR, before and after the scaling factor correction.
\begin{figure}
\epsscale{1.1}
\plotone{SNR_H16_TDV_catalog_vs_SNR_from_CDPP_before_correction.pdf}
\plotone{SNR_H16_TDV_catalog_vs_SNR_from_CDPP_after_correction.pdf}
\caption{Calibration of the SNR calculation. We show the calculated SNR (using equation \ref{eq: SNR}) versus the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} SNR for the planets in the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} TDV catalog. The top panel is before the scaling correction ($f_{\mathrm{CDPP}} = 1$), and the bottom panel is after the correction ($f_{\mathrm{CDPP}} = 0.8707$). The black line is one-to-one.}
\label{fig: SNR scatterplots}
\end{figure}
\newpage
\subsubsection{TDV calculation}
\label{sec: TDV calculation}
After a planet is deemed to have sufficiently high transit SNR such that the individual transit durations would be measurable, we obtain an estimate of its TDV slope, $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$. All planets in the system (transiting or not) are accounted for in this calculation. For systems with two or more planets, we calculate $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ in two ways. The first is the analytic calculation outlined in Section~\ref{sec: analytic calculation}. The second is a numerical approach aided by the \texttt{REBOUND} $N$-body gravitational dynamics software \citep{2012A&A...537A.128R}. We use the \texttt{REBOUND} Wisdom-Holman integrator \citep{2015MNRAS.452..376R} to calculate a short orbital evolution over a 4 year baseline (approximately the length of the Kepler prime mission). The integration uses a timestep equal to $0.1 P_1$. We do not account for general relativity (or any other additional forces), since the perturbations on $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ from general relativistic apsidal precession are negligible relative to the influences of nodal precession. Following the integration, we calculate $T_{\mathrm{dur}}$ as a function of time using equation~\ref{eq: Tdur} (along with the other relevant relationships for $b$ and $v_{\mathrm{mid}}$). Finally, we perform a least-squares linear fit to $T_{\mathrm{dur}}$ vs. time to calculate $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$.
As discussed in Section \ref{sec: comparison to N-body} and Appendix \ref{sec: Appendix comparison of analytic TDV to N-body}, the analytic calculation of $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ is adequate (relative to $N$-body) when inclinations are low (i.e.\ $i\lesssim10^{\circ}$, as in the maximum AMD model) but can have orders-of-magnitude discrepancies at high inclinations (i.e.\ in the two-Rayleigh model). In order to avoid systematic errors in our study of the two models, we opt to use the $N$-body $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ calculation for all analyses going forward. The analytic derivation, however, is still useful for physical insight and for quick calculations in low inclination systems.
\subsubsection{TDV slope detectability}
\label{sec: TDV slope detectability}
The next step is to determine whether the calculated TDV slope, $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$, would be detectable according to the $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}| > 3 \ \sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}$ threshold identified above for the observed systems. We thus require an estimate of the TDV slope uncertainty, $\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}$, to use in conjunction with the calculated $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$. Using generalized least squares, $\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}$ can be related to the individual transit duration uncertainty, $(\sigma_{T_{\mathrm{dur}}})_{\mathrm{ind}}$, via the expression
\begin{equation}
\label{eq: sigma_dotT v1}
\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}^2 \approx \frac{(\sigma_{T_{\mathrm{dur}}}^2)_{\mathrm{ind}}}{P^2 f_0 \sum_{j=-M}^{M}j^2}.
\end{equation}
Here $f_0$ is the duty cycle (the fraction of data cadences with valid data), and the transits are assumed to run from $-M$ to $M$ in the absence of data gaps.
(In principle, one could estimate the increased uncertainty due to some transits not being observed by not including the corresponding $j^2$ terms in the denominator of equation \ref{eq: sigma_dotT v1}.)
We approximate $M \approx t_{\mathrm{obs}}/(2P)$, where $t_{\mathrm{obs}}$ is the total observation time span.
Next, we can simplify equation \ref{eq: sigma_dotT v1} by expressing $(\sigma_{T_{\mathrm{dur}}})_{\mathrm{ind}}$ in terms of the composite transit duration uncertainty, $\sigma_{T_{\mathrm{dur}}}$, and the number of transits, $N_{\mathrm{tr}}$, yielding
$(\sigma_{T_{\mathrm{dur}}}^2)_{\mathrm{ind}} = \sigma_{T_{\mathrm{dur}}}^2N_{\mathrm{tr}} = \sigma_{T_{\mathrm{dur}}}^2 t_{\mathrm{obs}}f_0/P$. Substituting this into equation \ref{eq: sigma_dotT v1} and adding a scaling factor, $f_{\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}}$, yields
\begin{equation}
\label{eq: sigma_dotT v2}
\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}^2 = \frac{\sigma_{T_{\mathrm{dur}}}^2 t_{\mathrm{obs}}f_{\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}}^2}{P^3 \sum_{j=-M}^{M}j^2}.
\end{equation}
Similar to the calculation of $\mathrm{CDPP_{eff}}$ in equation \ref{eq: CDPP_eff}, the scaling factor is required to calibrate $\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}$ to the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} TDV catalog. Using equation \ref{eq: sigma_dotT v2} without a scaling factor leads to a systematic overestimation of the calculated $\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}$ compared to the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} values because of differences in the $\sigma_{T_{\mathrm{dur}}}$ calculation. It appears that \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H}'s use of measurement uncertainties rather than the CDPP led them to underestimate $\sigma_{T_{\mathrm{dur}}}$ and that this effect was greater than the impact of Kepler's duty cycle being less than 100\%. We solve for the optimal value of $f_{\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}}$ by calculating $\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}$ for the planets in the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} TDV catalog and minimizing the difference with respect to \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H}'s reported values. The resulting value is ${f_{\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}} = 0.7378}$.
We use equation \ref{eq: sigma_dotT v2} to estimate $\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}$ for the SysSim planets with calculated TDVs. Finally, we use the $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}| > 3 \ \sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}$ criterion to determine whether a planet qualifies as having a detectable TDV signal.
\subsection{Summary of the full process}
\label{sec: summary of the full process}
We synthesize the preceding series of steps and calculate TDVs for simulated planet populations in both the two-Rayleigh model and maximum AMD model. We consider a set of 100 physical/observed catalog pairs for each model with the parameters of the statistical models sampled according to their posterior distributions (see \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}, \citealt{2021AJ....161...16H}). The physical catalogs contain orbital elements (inclinations, longitudes of ascending node, etc.) referenced to the sky plane. We transform these orbital elements to be referenced to the invariable plane using equations \ref{eq: omega_sky and omega relationship} and \ref{eq: sin(alpha)}.
The observed catalogs are first used to specify which planets to perform the TDV calculation for based on whether their TDVs are measurable (Section \ref{sec: TDV measurability}). The physical catalogs determine the details of a given planet's TDV calculation (Section \ref{sec: TDV calculation}). Finally, transit properties from the observed catalog then help quantify whether the resulting TDV signal is detectable (Section \ref{sec: TDV slope detectability}). Each physical/observed catalog pair yields a subset of the planet population with detectable TDV slopes.
\section{Results}
\label{sec: results}
\subsection{Number of planets with detected TDVs}
\label{sec: number of planets with detected TDVs}
The most direct way of comparatively evaluating the two-Rayleigh model and maximum AMD model is to examine each model's total number of simulated planets with detected TDV signals. This quantity can then be compared to the number of observed planets with detected TDV signals, thereby determining which model is a better fit in terms of TDV statistics. In this section, we consider this simple tabulation; in the next section, we look deeper into the properties of the simulated and observed planets with detected TDVs.
Figure \ref{fig: histograms with number of detected TDVs} presents the tabulation of TDV detections. We show histograms of the number of planets with detected TDVs for 100 physical and observed catalog pairs of each model. (That is, each physical/observed catalog pair corresponds to a single number of planets with detected TDVs.) The medians of the distributions and confidence intervals representing the 16th and 84th percentiles are shown in the figure; these values are $43^{+18}_{-13}$ planets with detected TDVs for the two-Rayleigh model and $22^{+10}_{-6}$ for the maximum AMD model. The observed number of planets with detected TDVs according to Kepler observations (16; see Section \ref{sec: observations}) is also shown.
The maximum AMD model yields a quantity of planets with detected TDVs that is in agreement with the observations. In contrast, the two-Rayleigh model yields too many planets with detected TDVs to be compatible with the observations. Thus, the TDV statistics support the maximum AMD model (and its associated mutual inclination distribution) over the two-Rayleigh model. We will revisit this conclusion in the Discussion (Section \ref{sec: discussion}).
\begin{figure}
\epsscale{1.2}
\plotone{Number_of_detected_TDVs_histograms_3sigma.pdf}
\caption{Distributions of the number of planets with detected TDVs in the two-Rayleigh model (blue histogram) and the maximum AMD model (green histogram). The histograms correspond to the 100 sets of physical and observed catalog pairs for each model (see Section \ref{sec: summary of the full process}). The medians of the distributions and confidence intervals representing the 16th and 84th percentiles are listed above the corresponding histograms. The number of planets with detected TDVs in the Kepler observations is shown with the dashed vertical line. The maximum AMD model agrees very well with the observed number of planets with detected TDVs, while the two-Rayleigh model produces too many detected TDVs.}
\label{fig: histograms with number of detected TDVs}
\end{figure}
\begin{figure*}
\epsscale{1.1}
\plotone{Two_Rayleigh_model_number_of_detected_TDVs_vs_sigma_i_scatterplots_3sigma.pdf}
\caption{Scatter plots of the correlations between the number of planets with detected TDVs in the two-Rayleigh model and the parameters of the model. The $x$-axes of the left and middle panels are the Rayleigh distribution scale parameters of the low and high inclination components, $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{low}}$ and $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}$. The $x$-axis of the right panel is the fraction of systems belonging to the high inclination population, $f_{\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}}$. To guide the eye, we include linear regression lines for each scatter plot. The horizontal dashed line corresponds to the number of planets with detected TDVs in the Kepler observations.}
\label{fig: number of detected TDVs vs sigma_i scatterplots}
\end{figure*}
Although the majority of outcomes for the two-Rayleigh model lead to more simulated systems with detectable TDVs than are observed, the low end of the distribution ($\sim 20$ planets with detected TDVs) is close to the observed number. This suggests that it may be difficult to rule out the two-Rayleigh model entirely. It is helpful to better understand these cases within the context of the broader distribution. To do this, we can study the relationships between the number of planets with detected TDVs and the parameters of the low and high inclination population components. These include the fraction of systems belonging to the high inclination population, $f_{\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}}$, and the Rayleigh distribution scale parameters of the low and high components, $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{low}}$ and $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}$.
\begin{figure}
\epsscale{1.1}
\plotone{AMD_model_TDV_slope_vs_inc.pdf}
\plotone{Two_Rayleigh_model_TDV_slope_vs_inc.pdf}
\caption{Absolute value of the TDV slope, $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$, as a function of the inclination of the planet's orbit relative to the invariable plane. The gray points indicate all TDV calculations (without regard to TDV detection) within a single observed catalog for the maximum AMD model (top panel) and two-Rayleigh model (bottom panel). The yellow points represent the mean and standard deviation of the gray points within log-uniform bins of $i$. The dashed black lines represent $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}| \sim \sin(2i)$ with a normalization such that the curve approximately passes through the data. While $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|\sim\sin(2i)$ is a good rough approximation, there is significant scatter due to the other factors within the $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ calculation (planet masses, semi-major axes, etc.). }
\label{fig: TDV slope vs inc}
\end{figure}
Figure \ref{fig: number of detected TDVs vs sigma_i scatterplots} shows scatter plots of these relationships. We plot the number of planets with detected TDVs versus $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{low}}$, $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}$, and $f_{\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}}$. The number of planets with detected TDVs is positively (albeit weakly) correlated with $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{low}}$ and $f_{\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}}$, while it is negatively correlated with $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}$. These relationships can be understood by noting that $|\dot{\Omega}| \sim \cos{i}$, such that $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|\sim\sin{i}\cos{i} \sim \sin{2i}$ (equations \ref{eq: dTdur/dt}, \ref{eq: db/dt}, and \ref{eq: Lagrange's planetary equations}; {see also Figure \ref{fig: TDV slope vs inc}}). When $i$ is small, $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}| \sim i$, creating the positive correlation between the number of planets with detected TDVs and $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{low}}$ (left panel of Figure \ref{fig: number of detected TDVs vs sigma_i scatterplots}). Since $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|\sim\sin{2i}$ peaks at $45^{\circ}$, the high inclination component of the two-Rayleigh model has larger average TDV signals, which results in the positive trend between the number of TDV detections and $f_{\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}}$ (right panel of Figure \ref{fig: number of detected TDVs vs sigma_i scatterplots}). However, we might also expect that the number of TDV detections would peak at $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}} \sim 45^{\circ}$ rather than show a negative correlation (middle panel of Figure \ref{fig: number of detected TDVs vs sigma_i scatterplots}). The negative correlation arises because $f_{\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}}$ is inversely correlated with $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}$, such that a low $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}$ is associated with many more systems in the high inclination population, and these systems show more detectable TDVs on average.
The middle panel of Figure \ref{fig: number of detected TDVs vs sigma_i scatterplots} shows that in most cases where the number of planets with detected TDVs is on the low end of the distribution ($\lesssim 20$), the scale parameter of the high inclination population is near its maximum, $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}} \gtrsim 50^{\circ}$. However, systems with extreme mutual inclinations of the level $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}} \gtrsim 50^{\circ}$ are disfavored from a physical standpoint, since the orbits are sometimes retrograde and are more likely to be unstable due to secular planet-planet interactions, as noted by \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}. The trend shown in the middle panel of Figure \ref{fig: number of detected TDVs vs sigma_i scatterplots} thus further disfavors the two-Rayleigh model; although the trend itself is weak, it is clear that obtaining a plausible number of TDV detections generally requires less plausible values of $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}$ for stability.
\subsection{Properties of planets with detected TDVs}
\label{sec: properties of planets with detected TDVs}
\begin{figure}
\epsscale{1.1}
\plotone{Two_Rayleigh_model_TDV_slope_histograms_3sigma_v2.pdf}
\plotone{AMD_model_TDV_slope_histograms_3sigma_v2.pdf}
\caption{Distributions of the absolute value of the TDV slope, $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$, for planets with detected TDVs. The top and bottom panels show the results for the two-Rayleigh model and the maximum AMD model, respectively. The solid thick line represents the median of the individual histograms for each of the 100 sets of physical and observed catalog pairs. The shaded regions represent the intervals between the 16th and 84th percentiles. The histogram of $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ values for the observations is shown with the dashed thick gray line. }
\label{fig: TDV slope histograms}
\end{figure}
\begin{figure}
\epsscale{1.25}
\plotone{Two_Rayleigh_model_TDV_slope_vs_P_and_depth_scatterplot_3sigma.pdf}
\plotone{AMD_model_TDV_slope_vs_P_and_depth_scatterplot_3sigma.pdf}
\caption{Absolute value of the TDV slope, $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$, as a function of $P$ (left column) and $\log_{10}(\mathrm{depth})$ (right column) of the planets with detected TDVs. The small gray points correspond to the simulated planets with detected TDVs across all 100 sets of physical and observed catalog pairs from the two-Rayleigh model (top row) and maximum AMD model (bottom row). The purple points indicate the observed Kepler planets with detected TDVs. }
\label{fig: TDV slope vs P and depth}
\end{figure}
In addition to the simple tabulation of the number of planets with detected TDVs, it is also valuable to compare the specific properties of the simulated planets to the corresponding observed planets with detected TDVs. Relevant properties include the magnitude of the TDV slopes, as well the planets' orbital periods and transit depths. Figures \ref{fig: TDV slope histograms} and \ref{fig: TDV slope vs P and depth} (as well as Table \ref{tab: average properties comparison}, discussed later) show these properties.
Figure \ref{fig: TDV slope histograms} presents histograms of the absolute value of the TDV slope, $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$, for planets with detected TDVs. The range and typical values of $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ for both the two-Rayleigh model and the maximum AMD model agree well with the observed planets. In all three distributions (observations and two models), the majority of values of $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ fall in the range of $1 - 10$ min/yr. The simulations have a slightly greater proportion of detections with $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}| \lesssim 1$ min/yr.
The two-Rayleigh model is inconsistent in terms of the observed count, but this is just a restatement of the finding from Figure \ref{fig: histograms with number of detected TDVs} that the two-Rayleigh model produces too many detected TDVs.
Figure \ref{fig: TDV slope vs P and depth} shows additional dimensions of this comparison between simulated and observed planets. We plot $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ versus $P$ and $\log_{10}(\mathrm{depth})$ for planets with detected TDVs in the maximum AMD model, the two-Rayleigh model, and the Kepler observations. The left column illustrates that $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ is positively correlated with $P$ for both the simulated and observed planets.
It is illuminating to discuss the physical origins of this positive correlation. In the limit of circular orbits, the expression for $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ (equation \ref{eq: dTdur/dt}) becomes
\begin{equation}
\label{eq: circular dTdur/dt}
\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}} \approx -P\left(\frac{b}{\pi\sqrt{1-b^2}}\right)\dot{\Omega}\sin{i}\cos{\beta}\sin{\Omega}.
\end{equation}
If the typical period ratio between adjacent planets, $P_{i+1}/P_i$, is independent of $P$, then $|\dot{\Omega}|\propto P^{-1}$, and the dependence of $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ on $P$ vanishes.\footnote{The $|\dot{\Omega}|\propto P^{-1}$ dependence can be seen by combining equations \ref{eq: Lagrange's planetary equations} and \ref{eq: R and R'} or by examining the Laplace-Lagrange secular solution of a two-planet system \citep{1999ssd..book.....M}.} Indeed, $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ is completely uncorrelated with $P$ in the full distribution (that includes the TDV slopes that are too small to be detected). However, $\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}$ is positively correlated with $P$ (due to the decreasing number of transits with increasing $P$), and since TDV detection requires $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}| > 3 \sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}$ (Section \ref{sec: observations}), this conspires to yield a positive correlation between $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ and $P$. That is, for large $P$, only the steepest values of $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ are detectable.
\cite{2021MNRAS.tmp.1312S} also identified a positive slope between $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ and $P$ within the Kepler detected TDVs, and they additionally pointed to a paucity of large $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ detections at small $P$, the latter of which might not be explained by the $\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}$ bias. The simulated planets at small $P$ in Figure \ref{fig: TDV slope vs P and depth} show a slight deficiency of large $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ detections ($\sim10$ min/yr) compared to more moderate slopes ($\sim1-3$ min/yr), which is due to the fact that moderate values are more common in the underlying distribution. However, it is not clear that the deficiency in the simulations matches that of the data. Altogether, the simulations reproduce the correlation, which is the dominant feature of the data, but they do not clearly reproduce the paucity of large $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ at small $P$.
The $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ versus $P$ distribution also shows that the simulated planets are more concentrated at smaller orbital periods in the range ${P=3-10}$ days than the observed planets, which are mostly at ${P>10}$ days. In particular, the observations have more planets with detected TDVs with ${P=100-300}$ days than represented in the simulations. This may be small-number statistics of the data, or it could be because SysSim is less well-calibrated in the ${P=100-300}$ day range due to fewer Kepler planet detections there. In addition, the observed systems may contain perturbing companion planets with ${P>300}$ days, but the simulated systems do not. We will return to this in Section \ref{sec: model assumptions}.
The right column of Figure \ref{fig: TDV slope vs P and depth} shows that $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ versus $\log_{10}(\mathrm{depth})$ exhibits a weak negative correlation, which is due to the fact that a larger transit SNR can allow for the detection of a smaller TDV slope. The typical transit depths of the simulated planets are in general agreement with the observed planets, although the observed planets appear to have a larger spread in $\log_{10}(\mathrm{depth})$ than the simulated planets. Altogether, these results indicate that the agreement between the simulated and observed planets with detected TDVs is satisfactory.
\setlength{\extrarowheight}{4pt}
\setlength\tabcolsep{10pt}
\begin{table*}
\centering
\caption{\textbf{Average Properties of Planets with Detected TDVs.} Means of the distributions of several planetary and system properties of planets with detected TDVs. The left column corresponds to the observed KOIs listed in Table \ref{tab: KOIs with TDVs}. We report the mean and standard error of the mean. The middle and right columns correspond to the SysSim simulated planets in the maximum AMD model and two-Rayleigh model, respectively. We calculate the mean values associated with each of the 100 catalogs and report the medians and 16th and 84th percentiles of the distributions of means. Here $N_{\mathrm{obs}}$ is the observed transit multiplicity of the system, and $N_{\mathrm{phys}}$ is the intrinsic multiplicity of the system. The quantity $\sigma_i$ is the standard deviation of the system's orbital inclinations with respect to the invariable plane, including non-detected planets. $N_{\mathrm{phys}}$ and $\sigma_i$ are unknown for the observed systems. The final row is the ratio of the number of TDV detections that are in single-transiting systems compared to multiple-transiting systems. }
\begin{tabular}{c | c c c }
\hline
\hline
& \multicolumn{3}{c}{\underline{Average values}} \\
& Observations & Maximum AMD model & Two-Rayleigh model \\
\hline
Planet properties & & \\
$R_p$ [$R_{\oplus}$] & $5.7 \pm 0.6$ & $4.7 ^{+ 0.4 }_{- 0.4 }$ & $4.8 ^{+ 0.3 }_{- 0.4 }$ \\
$M_p$ [$M_{\oplus}$] & -- & $13.1 ^{+ 10.3 }_{- 3.4 }$ & $18.1 ^{+ 7.1 }_{- 6.1 }$ \\
depth [ppm] & $4327 \pm 929$ & $2975 ^{+ 672 }_{- 531 }$ & $3096 ^{+ 420 }_{- 437 }$ \\
$P$ [days] & $65.2 \pm 17.8$ & $21.8 ^{+ 7.7 }_{- 5.9 }$ & $22.5 ^{+ 3.7 }_{- 4.6 }$ \\
$T_{\mathrm{dur}}$ [hr] & $6.1 \pm 0.8$ & $3.0 ^{+ 0.3 }_{- 0.2 }$ & $3.2 ^{+ 0.2 }_{- 0.3 }$ \\
$|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ [min/yr] & $6.4 \pm 1.4$ & $3.6 ^{+ 0.8 }_{- 0.9 }$ & $4.2 ^{+ 0.9 }_{- 0.8 }$ \\ \\
\hline
System properties & & \\
$N_{\mathrm{obs}}$ & $2.0 \pm 0.3$ & $1.8 ^{+ 0.2 }_{- 0.2 }$ & $1.6 ^{+ 0.3 }_{- 0.2 }$ \\
$N_{\mathrm{phys}}$ & -- & $3.8 ^{+ 0.5 }_{- 0.4 }$ & $5.6 ^{+ 0.4 }_{- 0.4 }$ \\
$\sigma_{i}$ [deg] & -- & $1.3 ^{+ 0.3 }_{- 0.2 }$ & $16.7 ^{+ 6.5 }_{- 6.2 }$ \\ \\
\hline
Catalog properties & & \\
single-to-multi ratio & 0.78 & $0.91 ^{+ 0.5 }_{- 0.3 }$ & $1.77 ^{+ 0.8 }_{- 0.6 }$ \\
\end{tabular}
\label{tab: average properties comparison}
\end{table*}
Table \ref{tab: average properties comparison} shows a quantitative comparison of the average properties of the planets with detected TDVs (and their systems) between the SysSim simulated planets and the observed KOIs. The table summarizes several of the key takeaways from Figures \ref{fig: TDV slope histograms} and \ref{fig: TDV slope vs P and depth}, including the general agreement of $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ between simulations and observations and the larger average $P$ for the observed planets. In addition, we note that the observed transit multiplicity of systems with detected TDVs shows good agreement, with $N_{\mathrm{obs}} = 1.8 ^{+ 0.2 }_{- 0.2 }$ for the simulated systems in the maximum AMD model versus $2.0 \pm 0.3$ for the observed systems. The average intrinsic multiplicity of the maximum AMD model simulated systems hosting planets with detected TDVs is $N_{\mathrm{phys}} = 3.8 ^{+ 0.5 }_{- 0.4 }$ (but clearly unknown for the observed systems). This is marginally smaller than the average of the full population of simulated systems with observed planets, which is $N_{\mathrm{phys}} \sim 4.5$.\footnote{This quantity is larger than the average number of planets per planetary system found by \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}, $3.12^{+0.36}_{-0.28}$, because it is conditional upon the system having at least one \textit{observed} planet.} The maximum AMD model simulated systems hosting planets with detected TDVs have an average standard deviation of the inclinations (measured with respect to the invariable plane) equal to $\sigma_i = 1.3 ^{+ 0.3 }_{- 0.2 }$ deg, marginally larger than the average of the full population, $\sigma_i \sim 1$ deg.
\newpage
\subsection{Sensitivity of results to model assumptions}
\label{sec: model assumptions}
In this section, we investigate the robustness of our results with respect to variations in the models, specifically the planet radius and period ranges, and \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}'s assumption that systems are at the critical AMD. To begin, we note that SysSim considers planet radii in the range $0.5 \ R_{\oplus} < R_p < 10 \ R_{\oplus}$, but it is best constrained for $R_p < 4 \ R_{\oplus}$ due to the large number of detections of sub-Neptune-sized planets. We can repeat our analysis by changing the $R_p$ upper limit from $10 \ R_{\oplus}$ to $4 \ R_{\oplus}$. This reduces the number of observed Kepler TDV detections from 16 (Section \ref{sec: observations}) to 6. Figure \ref{fig: histograms with number of detected TDVs for 4 Rearth cut} (top panel) displays the distributions of the number of simulated planets with detected TDVs, as in Figure \ref{fig: histograms with number of detected TDVs}. We observe a similar or perhaps even better agreement between the maximum AMD model and the observed number of planets with detected TDVs. Meanwhile, the two-Rayleigh model again produces too many detected TDVs. Our results are therefore robust with respect to the choice of the upper limit on $R_p$.
\begin{figure}
\epsscale{1.1}
\plotone{Number_of_detected_TDVs_histograms_3sigma_4Rearth_cut.pdf}
\plotone{Number_of_detected_TDVs_histograms_3sigma_4Rearth_100day_cut.pdf}
\caption{Same as Figure \ref{fig: histograms with number of detected TDVs}, except with the planet radius upper limit equal to $4 \ R_{\oplus}$ rather than $10 \ R_{\oplus}$ (both panels) and with the orbital period upper limit equal to 100 days rather than 300 days (bottom panel).}
\label{fig: histograms with number of detected TDVs for 4 Rearth cut}
\end{figure}
In addition to the finite planet radius range, SysSim also uses a finite range in orbital periods, ${3 \ \mathrm{days} < P < 300 \ \mathrm{days}}$. This leads to an important limitation of our analysis, in that our population of simulated TDV detections is missing cases that would have arisen from planetary perturbers with $P < 3$ days or $P > 300$ days. This may be responsible for the underabundance of simulated TDV detections with $P \sim 100-300$ days relative to the observations (Figure \ref{fig: TDV slope vs P and depth}). Accounting for this underprediction of planets with detected TDVs in the simulated population would tend to further disfavor the two-Rayleigh model, although it may also lead to a tension with the maximum AMD model if the difference is significant. The best way to address this would be to generalize the \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H} model to include planets with orbital periods beyond the current cutoffs and then use SysSim to generate new simulated catalogs for comparison. Generalizing the \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H} model and performing parameter estimation on the new model's parameters is beyond the scope of this study.
However, we can repeat the analysis on a restricted sample of TDV detections with $P < 100$ days (bottom panel of Figure \ref{fig: histograms with number of detected TDVs for 4 Rearth cut}), which is less affected by the $300$ day cutoff. We find that the overall conclusions are unchanged.
Another simulation feature to consider is the assumption of the maximum AMD model that all multi-planet systems are at the AMD-stability limit, with ${\mathrm{AMD} = \mathrm{AMD_{crit}}}$. \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H} tested variations of their model in which ${\mathrm{AMD} = f_{\mathrm{crit}}\times\mathrm{AMD_{crit}}}$, where $f_{\mathrm{crit}}$ is some factor in the range $[0,2]$. They found that values between 0.4 and 2 are all acceptable and that the fit did not significantly improve with the extra $f_{\mathrm{crit}}$ parameter. However, it is possible that this factor could affect the TDV distribution more strongly than the other Kepler observables. We find this to be unlikely. As shown by Figure 7 in \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}, when allowing for $f_{\mathrm{crit}} \ne 1$, the mutual inclination distribution maintains the same shape and shifts by less than a factor of two. Specifically, the median mutual inclination shifts to $\sim 0.82^\circ$ ($1.64^\circ$) for $f_{\rm crit} = 0.5$ (2). Meanwhile, $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ varies by up to three orders-of-magnitude among the planets with detected TDVs (with $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ ranging from $\sim 0.1 - 100$ min/yr; see Figure \ref{fig: TDV slope vs P and depth}). Including the non-detected TDVs, there is an even larger range, with $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ as low as $\sim10^{-4}$ min/yr. Given the dynamic range in $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$, the small changes in inclinations cannot significantly change the distribution of TDVs.
\section{Discussion}
\label{sec: discussion}
\subsection{Small mutual inclinations for the Kepler planets}
\label{sec: small mutual inclinations for the Kepler planets}
The TDV statistics of the Kepler population agree very well with the simulated planet population constructed by the maximum AMD model, whereas the two-Rayleigh model produces too many detected TDVs (Figures \ref{fig: histograms with number of detected TDVs} and \ref{fig: histograms with number of detected TDVs for 4 Rearth cut}). Given that the primary difference between these two models is the mutual inclination distribution, which TDVs are sensitive to (e.g. Figures \ref{fig: number of detected TDVs vs sigma_i scatterplots} and \ref{fig: TDV slope vs inc}), we conclude that the TDV statistics support the mutual inclination distribution of the maximum AMD model. We emphasize that the TDV statistics are not capable of assessing \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}'s assumption that systems are at the critical AMD. However, they appear consistent with the implications of that assumption.
As discussed in Section \ref{sec: Maximum AMD model} (and originally in Section 3.3 of \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}), the maximum AMD model yields median mutual inclinations, $\tilde{\mu}_{i,n}$, of systems with $n= 2, 3, ..., 10$ planets that are well modeled by a power-law of the form
$\tilde{\mu}_{i,n} = 1.10^{\circ}(n/5)^{-1.73}$. This equation evaluates to $5.4^{\circ}$, $2.7^{\circ}$, and $1.6^{\circ}$ for two-, three- and four-planet systems, respectively. These inclinations are quite modest relative to the high mutual inclinations that have previously been invoked to explain the Kepler dichotomy (e.g. \citealt{2018AJ....156...24M}, \citetalias{2019MNRAS.490.4575H}). Of course, systems with higher mutual inclinations do exist (e.g. Kepler-108, \citealt{2017AJ....153...45M}), but according to our results they do not make up a large fraction of the population.
A final point to emphasize about \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}'s mutual inclination distribution is that it is non-dichotomous; it does not bifurcate the population into ``dynamically cool'' and ``dynamically hot'' systems. The fact that the TDV statistics support this model is therefore evidence for a continuum of architectures rather than a dichotomy.
As a caveat, we note that there are many possible combinations in the true multiplicity/inclination distribution that are not encapsulated in the two models we tested. Reality is likely more complicated than ``there is'' or ``there is not'' a dichotomy. However, we can say that (1) the continuous maximum AMD model is consistent with the data, and (2) replacing any of the model's low inclination systems with high inclination configurations would tend to increase the number of TDV detections, thus leading to eventual inconsistency with the small number of observed detections. The two models tested here serve as a basis of comparison for future, more complex models. For now, we focus on the implications of the favored maximum AMD model.
The mutual inclinations of the maximum AMD model are consistent with previous works that constrained the distribution by supplementing the Kepler transit statistics with additional observations. The most similar result is that of \cite{2018ApJ...860..101Z} (see also \citealt{2020AJ....159..164Y}), who used Kepler TTV statistics as their additional constraint. \cite{2018ApJ...860..101Z}'s model assumed a power-law of the mutual inclination dispersion with the intrinsic multiplicity, $\sigma_{i,n} = \sigma_{i,5}(n/5)^{\alpha}$, and identified best-fit parameters equal to $\alpha = -3.5$ and $\sigma_{i,5} = 0.8^{\circ}$. This is steeper than that found by \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H} but a similar result indicating relatively small inclinations that depend on the intrinsic multiplicity.
Rather than TTVs, \cite{2012AJ....143...94T} and \cite{2012A&A...541A.139F} used RV survey data as their extra observational constraint. By combining statistical information from Kepler and RV surveys, they found evidence that suggested that the mean mutual inclinations are $\lesssim5^{\circ}$.
Detailed analyses of RVs of individual multiple planet systems with strong gravitational interactions also provide evidence for small mutual inclinations \citep{2002ApJ...579..455L, 2014MNRAS.441..442N, 2016MNRAS.455.2484N, 2018AJ....155..106M}.
Finally, the inference of small mutual inclinations of the Kepler planets is also consistent with population-level constraints on Kepler stellar obliquities. Studies using photometric variability observations \citep{2015ApJ...801....3M} and $v\sin i$ measurements \citep{2017AJ....154..270W, 2021AJ....161...68L} showed that stellar spin-orbit misalignments are small for Kepler planets orbiting cool stars ($T_{\mathrm{eff}} \lesssim 6250$ K). All of these results are broadly consistent with \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}'s maximum AMD model. Thus, we are seeing agreement between Kepler transit statistics, TTVs, RVs, stellar obliquities, and TDVs, indicating a collection of robust evidence that the vast majority of inner planetary systems around Sun-like stars have small mutual inclinations.
\subsection{Physical origins of the mutual inclinations}
\label{sec: physical origins}
The predominantly small (but non-zero) inclinations, $i\lesssim5^{\circ}-10^{\circ}$, must have been excited through one or more physical processes. While several dynamical mechanisms have been proposed, it is still unclear which dominate. Here we will review the relevant theories and discuss which are favored by the observational evidence for small inclinations.
\subsubsection{Excitation during late-stage planet assembly}
\label{sec: primordial excitation}
To begin, we note that the requisite mutual inclinations can probably be acquired primordially during the planet formation epoch. Many studies have used $N$-body simulations to study the formation of close-in, compact systems in their final assembly stage, during which planetary embryos undergo mutual scatterings and collisional growth. Some of these models have considered \textit{in situ} formation in a gas-poor or gas-empty environment, typically starting with a dense planetesimal disk with various disk masses and radial profiles \citep[e.g.][]{2013ApJ...775...53H, 2016ApJ...822...54D, 2016ApJ...832...34M, 2017AJ....154...27M, 2020MNRAS.491.5595P}. In contrast to \textit{in situ} formation models, migration models consider formation of protoplanets beyond $\sim 1$ AU. Disk-planet interactions lead to inward migration and the formation of long chains of short-period protoplanets in mean-motion resonances. Once the gas disk disperses, these compact resonant chains can become dynamically unstable and collide, promoting further planetary growth \citep[e.g.][]{2007ApJ...654.1110T, 2014A&A...569A..56C, 2014MNRAS.445..479C, 2017MNRAS.470.1750I, 2018ApJ...866..104C, 2019arXiv190208772I, 2019MNRAS.486.3874C}.
In both the \textit{in situ} and migration scenarios, gravitational scattering of planetary embryos leads to dynamical excitation of the mutual inclinations and eccentricities of the final planetary system, potentially allowing for the production of systems that agree with the Kepler multiplicity distribution.\footnote{This dynamical excitation must occur among planetary embryos during the formation epoch. Dynamical instabilities among fully-formed Kepler multi-planet systems are unlikely to produce sufficient excitation \citep[e.g.][]{2012ApJ...758...39J}.} These models are generally capable of producing inclinations in the range of $\sim1^{\circ}-10^{\circ}$ \citep[e.g.][]{2013ApJ...775...53H, 2016ApJ...832...34M, 2019arXiv190208772I, 2019MNRAS.486.3874C, 2020MNRAS.491.5595P}, in agreement with the mutual inclinations of the maximum AMD model from \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}. For instance, the migration simulations of \cite{2019arXiv190208772I} find an excess of single-transiting systems that matches the Kepler multiplicity distribution and arises primarily from systems of $2-3$ planets with inclinations between $\sim4^{\circ}-10^{\circ}$. In contrast to \cite{2019arXiv190208772I}, some other variations of late-stage planet formation simulations do not reproduce the large number of single-transiting systems, at least not with a uniform underlying model \citep[e.g.][]{2013ApJ...775...53H, 2020MNRAS.491.5595P}. However, this appears equally if not more influenced by the intrinsic multiplicities of the simulated systems being too high (average of $\sim5$ planets per system rather than $\sim3$ as found by \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}) than the inclinations being too low, and the multiplicities are strongly influenced by the initial conditions of the simulations. Finally, in addition to the proper range of inclinations, these models also naturally produce an inverse correlation between inclination (and eccentricity) dispersion and intrinsic multiplicity, as shown in the analysis of \cite{2018ApJ...866..104C}'s simulations by \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}.
\subsubsection{External perturbations: stellar oblateness and distant giant planets}
\label{sec: external perturbations}
While dynamical instabilities during the late-stage planet assembly process appear capable of delivering the required level of mutual inclination excitation, this is not guaranteed, and the primordial formation conditions are poorly-constrained. This has led some to postulate the importance of external gravitational perturbations from the star or other planets in the system as sources of dynamical excitation. These external perturbations additionally offer solutions to systems with very high ($\gtrsim20^{\circ}$) mutual inclinations \citep[e.g.][]{2017AJ....153...45M} and/or misaligned stellar obliquities \citep[e.g.][]{2021MNRAS.502.2893K}, which are observed in a handful of systems and cannot be attributed to primordial collisional excitation among the inner Kepler planets.
One source of external perturbation is the quadrupolar gravitational potential of a tilted host star, which is particularly strong when the star is young and rapidly rotating \citep{2016ApJ...830....5S}. Shortly after disk dispersal, a tilted star can drive differential nodal precession of the inner planetary orbits that leads to mutual inclinations comparable to the magnitude of the stellar obliquity. The excitation also depends on the coupling of the Kepler planets compared to the stellar forcing. To match the $\lesssim10^{\circ}$ mutual inclinations, spin-orbit misalignments of this magnitude must be widespread during the disk-hosting stage. There are numerous pathways for generating star-disk tilts \citep[e.g.][]{2012Natur.491..418B, 2014MNRAS.440.3532L, 2014ApJ...790...42S, 2014ApJ...797L..29S, 2018MNRAS.478..835Z}. Moreover, the $6^{\circ}$ obliquity of the Sun is of the requisite magnitude, and recent data suggests that spin-orbit misalignments in systems of small Kepler planets are more common than previously thought, particularly among hot stars \citep{2021AJ....161...68L}. The oblateness-driven inclination excitation theory is also consistent with the relatively large (up to $\sim10^{\circ}$) observed inclinations of ultra-short period planets \citep{2018ApJ...864L..38D, 2020ApJ...890L..31L}, provided their inward migration occurs early enough \citep{2020ApJ...905...71M}. The biggest unknown with the theory is that it requires rapid disk dispersal timescales, such that a primordial star-disk misalignment can naturally become a spin-orbit misalignment \citep{2020AJ....160..105S}.
In addition to the host star, another gravitational source that can drive differential precession is a distant ($\gtrsim1$~AU) giant planet (or ``cold Jupiter'') on an inclined orbit \citep{2017AJ....153...42L, 2017MNRAS.467.1531H, 2017MNRAS.468..549B, 2018MNRAS.478..197P}. The giant can similarly generate mutual inclinations among the inner planets up to roughly the magnitude of the giant's orbital tilt, depending on the coupling of the inner planets to one another relative to the perturbations from the giant. The inclination excitation can, however, become much larger than the giant's inclination when there exists a secular resonance between a nodal precession frequency and a system eigenfrequency \citep{2018AJ....155..139G, 2018MNRAS.478..197P}. In addition to dynamically quiet secular interactions, an outer system containing \textit{multiple} giant planets can undergo a violent epoch of planet-planet scattering and collisions that reduce the multiplicity and/or dynamically heat the inner system \citep[e.g.][]{2017MNRAS.464.1709G, 2017MNRAS.468.3000M, 2020MNRAS.491.5595P}. Recently, \cite{2020AJ....159...38M} showed that cold Jupiters have $\sim10^{\circ}$ mutual inclinations relative to inner transiting systems, with lower inclinations relative to the multis than singles. This is consistent with a scenario in which inclined giants perturb inner systems. However, it is equally consistent with other mechanisms that generate inclinations among the inner planets and produce an inclination with respect to the cold Jupiter as a by-product.
Cumulatively, the data suggest that distant giants likely play a role in dynamically heating some subset of inner planetary systems, with prime examples including HAT-P-11 \citep{2018AJ....155..255Y}, $\pi$ Mensae \citep[e.g.][]{2020MNRAS.497.2096X, 2021MNRAS.502.2893K}, and WASP-107 \citep[e.g.][]{2021AJ....161...70P}, all of which have short-period Neptunes (or sub-Neptunes) with large stellar obliquities and eccentric cold Jupiters. However, as far as generating the Kepler dichotomy through dynamical excitation of inner systems, distant giant planets are unlikely to be the dominant solution. There are several reasons for this. First, roughly three quarters of Kepler planetary systems of super-Earths/sub-Neptunes have just a single transiting planet, while roughly one third of these systems contain distant giant planets \citep{2018AJ....156...92Z, 2019AJ....157...52B}. Provided the distant giant fraction is similar around transit singles and transit multis \citep{2020AJ....159...38M}, the statistical constraints make it difficult to generate a sufficient number of transit singles through giant planet perturbations. Moreover, it is unlikely that the cold Jupiter occurrence is significantly higher among the transit singles compared to the transit multis, given that the stellar metallicity distributions are indistinguishable \citep{2018AJ....155..134M}.
A second consideration is that, even when one or more cold Jupiters are present, they do not always (in the absence of secular resonances) lead to enhanced mutual inclinations in inner systems, since the inner planet orbits are often tightly coupled \citep[e.g.][]{2017MNRAS.464.1709G, 2017MNRAS.468.3000M}. However, when mutual inclinations do result, they are generally larger than the $i \lesssim 5^{\circ}-10^{\circ}$ scale required by \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}, particularly when there are scattering interactions in the outer system \citep{2017MNRAS.468.3000M}. Finally, the gravitational perturbations from distant giants are often overpowered by stellar oblateness soon after disk dispersal \citep{2020AJ....160..105S}, such that a planetary system initially dominated by the star can evade giant-induced inclination excitation by adiabatically realigning to the giant's orbital plane during stellar spin-down.
\section{Conclusion}
The distribution of inclinations in multiple-planet systems encodes fundamental clues about planet formation. Unfortunately, it is inherently difficult to infer from radial velocity and transit observations. In particular, the observed transiting multiplicity distribution is strongly affected by the underlying mutual inclination distribution, but it also depends on the intrinsic multiplicity distribution, yielding a near degeneracy that makes inferences of inclinations difficult.
In this work, we used Transit Duration Variations (TDVs) of the Kepler planet population to break the near degeneracy and constrain the mutual inclination distribution of close-in, multi-planet systems. TDVs often arise when a transiting planet's transit chord drifts due to orbital precession induced by torques from perturbing planets (Figure \ref{fig: geometric diagram}). The signal is sensitive to the mutual orbital inclinations and can yield detectable drifts on the order of $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}} \sim 1-10$ min/yr. Several dozen Kepler planets exhibit TDV drift signals (Table \ref{tab: KOIs with TDVs}; Figure \ref{fig: Kepler-9 TDVs} for an example). Our work is the first to exploit these detections statistically to characterize the mutual inclination distribution.
We compared the observed TDV detections of Kepler planets to expectations from simulated planet populations subject to different assumptions about the mutual inclination distribution. These simulated planetary systems were drawn from two population models built using the ``SysSim'' empirically-calibrated forward modeling framework: (1) the ``two-Rayleigh model'' \citep{2019MNRAS.490.4575H}, which assumes a dichotomous mutual inclination distribution with low ($\sigma_{i, \mathrm{low}} \sim 1^{\circ} – 2^{\circ}$) and high ($\sigma_{i, \mathrm{high}} \sim 30^{\circ} – 65^{\circ}$) inclination components, and (2) the ``maximum AMD model'' \citep{2020AJ....160..276H}, in which the mutual inclination distribution is broad, continuous, and multiplicity-dependent with small inclinations on the scale of a few degrees. (See Figure \ref{fig: i vs e scatterplots} for a comparison of the two models.) To analyze the simulated planet population, we considered both analytic and $N$-body calculations of $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$, along with a simulated TDV detection pipeline to identify which planets would have TDVs that are both measurable (requiring transits with sufficiently large signal-to-noise) and detectable (requiring a significant TDV slope, $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|> 3 \ \sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}$).
Our main result is shown in Figure \ref{fig: histograms with number of detected TDVs}, where the key diagnostic is the number of planets with detected TDVs. The maximum AMD model yields a quantity ($22^{+10}_{-6}$) that is in good agreement with the observed number from Kepler (16 after cuts have been applied). The two-Rayleigh model, by contrast, consistently overpredicts the number of planets with detected TDVs ($43^{+18}_{-13}$). This is because it has too many high inclination systems, which generally produce larger TDV signals (Figure \ref{fig: TDV slope vs inc}). These results are robust with respect to model assumptions, such as the upper limit of $R_p$. When restricting to planets with $R_p < 4 \ R_{\oplus}$ (rather than $R_p < 10 \ R_{\oplus}$), there are 6 observed Kepler planets with detected TDVs, compared to $8^{+4}_{-3}$ with the maximum AMD model and $16^{+7}_{-5}$ with the two-Rayleigh model (Figure \ref{fig: histograms with number of detected TDVs for 4 Rearth cut}).
Given these results, our key takeaway is that the TDV statistics support a continuous distribution of relatively low mutual inclinations ($i \lesssim 5^{\circ} – 10^{\circ}$) rather than a dichotomous distribution with many high inclination systems. These results are consistent with \cite{2018ApJ...860..101Z}, who considered TTV statistics rather than TDVs. Moreover, small inclinations are also supported by studies that combined Kepler and RV survey statistics \citep{2012AJ....143...94T, 2012A&A...541A.139F}. Cumulatively, this work is further evidence that the apparent excess of single-transiting systems relative to expectations from the multis, an observation known as the ``Kepler dichotomy'', does not actually provide evidence for a dichotomy in the underlying architectures \citep{2020AJ....160..276H}. Rather, the observations are naturally explained by and more consistent with a ``Kepler continuum'' of intrinsic multiplicities and low mutual inclinations.
Even with predominantly small (few-degree) mutual inclinations, there must have been one or more physical processes that disrupted these close-in systems from perfect coplanarity. Primordial excitation during the planet assembly phase is perhaps the most favored mechanism for producing a non-dichotomous, multiplicity-dependent distribution of low mutual inclinations, although the optimal disk surface densities, gas damping timescales, and planetary embryo properties are still uncertain. Stellar oblateness can also drive small mutual inclinations if $\sim5^{\circ}-10^{\circ}$ spin-orbit misalignments (like the $6^{\circ}$ solar obliquity) are widespread and disk-dispersal timescales are rapid. Both of these are observable properties that will become better understood over time. Distant giant planets are almost certainly responsible for dynamical heating of a subset of inner planetary systems, but they are probably not the dominant origin of the transit-reducing mutual inclinations. Regardless, the results in this paper can be exploited in future work to constrain the prevalence of these various mechanisms.
Statistical characterization of TDV signals will improve in the future as observational time baselines lengthen. In particular, the PLATO Mission \citep{2014ExA....38..249R} will enable the detection of many more Kepler planet TDVs when it revisits the Kepler field. Moreover, some planets may be seen to transit into or out of view \citep{2018A&A...618A..41F}, as has already been observed in a handful of cases \citep{2019AJ....158..133H, 2020AJ....160..195J}. Modeling this expanded set of TDV observations will allow an even more detailed characterization of the mutual inclination distribution.
In summary, TDVs provide a window into the three-dimensional properties of planetary systems, which are otherwise difficult to probe. This is another axis with which to study our Solar System in the context of exoplanetary systems, and, in this case, it appears that the near-coplanarity of the Solar System is indeed the rule.
\section{Acknowledgements}
We thank Tsevi Mazeh and Dimitri Veras for comments and questions that improved the paper. We also thank the anonymous referee for their insightful and helpful report. S.C.M. was supported by NASA through the NASA Hubble Fellowship grant \#HST-HF2-51465 awarded by the Space Telescope Science Institute, which is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., for NASA, under contract NAS5-26555.
M.Y.H. acknowledges the support of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), funding reference number PGSD3 - 516712 - 2018.
This work was supported by a grant from the Simons Foundation/SFARI (675601, E.B.F.).
E.B.F. acknowledges the support of the Ambrose Monell Foundation and the Institute for Advanced Study.
M.Y.H. and E.B.F. acknowledge support from the Penn State Eberly College of Science and Department of Astronomy \& Astrophysics, the Center for Exoplanets and Habitable Worlds, and the Center for Astrostatistics.
\newpage
\section{Introduction}
\label{sec: Introduction}
One of the fundamental features of our Solar System is the near-coplanarity of the planetary orbits. The orbital inclinations of the Solar System planets relative to the invariable plane
are a few degrees or less, with the exception of Mercury, which is inclined by $6^{\circ}$. This coplanarity was one of the key observables leading to the nebular hypothesis \citep{Kant1755, Laplace1796} and the modern-day paradigm of planet formation in thin gaseous disks \citep[e.g.][]{2011ARA&A..49..195A}. It is unclear whether most planetary systems retain their primordially small inclinations (like the Solar System) or develop larger misalignments. Accordingly, constraining the mutual inclination distribution of exoplanetary systems is a large-scale objective with fundamental implications for planet formation theory \citep[e.g.][]{2013ApJ...775...53H} and population statistics \citep[e.g.][]{2012AJ....143...94T}.
Although the transit and Doppler methods do not generally reveal the
mutual inclinations of multiple-planet systems
without further assumptions,
there have still been several advancements in our knowledge of the mutual inclinations of the population of short-period ($P \lesssim 1$ yr), tightly-packed systems discovered by the Kepler mission \citep{2010Sci...327..977B, 2013ApJS..204...24B, 2011ApJS..197....8L, 2014ApJ...790..146F}. (See \citealt{2021arXiv210302127Z} for a recent review.) Roughly half of Sun-like stars host these short-period planets \citep{2015ARA&A..53..409W, 2018ApJ...860..101Z, 2019MNRAS.490.4575H, 2020AJ....159..164Y}, most of which are likely in multi-planet (but not necessarily multi-transiting) systems \citep{2018AJ....156...24M, 2020AJ....160..276H}. Such systems will be our primary focus in this paper.
Kepler systems of multiple-transiting planets (``Kepler multis'') are nearly coplanar on average \citep[e.g.][]{2011ApJS..197....8L}.\footnote{Ultra-short-period planets are a notable exception \citep{2018ApJ...864L..38D}.} This conclusion has
been reached by analyzing, for instance, the distribution of ratios of transit chord lengths between pairs of planets within the same system
\citep{2010ApJ...725.1226S, 2012ApJ...761...92F, 2014ApJ...790..146F}. According to these studies, at least half of Kepler systems have mutual inclinations that are consistent with a Rayleigh distribution with scale parameter $\sigma_i \sim 1^{\circ} - 2^{\circ}$.
Within the Kepler sample, there is also evidence for a subset of systems with larger mutual inclinations, based on analyses of the observed transiting multiplicity distribution. Inferences from this distribution are difficult, though, because it depends on both the intrinsic multiplicity distribution and the mutual inclination distribution \citep[e.g.][]{2011ApJS..197....8L, 2012AJ....143...94T}. To break the degeneracy,
additional assumptions
or observations are required, such as inputs from radial velocity (RV) surveys or the incidence of transit-timing variations (TTVs).
Several studies used statistical planet population models to fit the observed transiting multiplicity distribution of Kepler systems \citep[e.g.][]{2011ApJS..197....8L, 2012AJ....143...94T, 2012ApJ...761...92F, 2016ApJ...816...66B}. These studies identified an apparent excess of single transiting systems (``singles''), compared to
the number of singles one would expect if all planetary systems have the same $\sim1^{\circ}-2^{\circ}$ mutual inclination dispersion (and intrinsic multiplicity distribution) of the transit multis. This apparent discrepancy between the observed and expected number of singles is known as the ``Kepler dichotomy'', and it is sometimes interpreted as evidence for two (or more) planet populations with distinct architectures \citep[e.g.][]{2011ApJS..197....8L, 2012ApJ...758...39J, 2013ApJ...775...53H, 2016ApJ...816...66B}. Biases due to detection order in multiple-transiting systems likely contribute to the Kepler dichotomy \citep{2019MNRAS.483.4479Z} but cannot entirely explain it \citep{2019MNRAS.490.4575H}.
One proposed resolution to the Kepler dichotomy is to invoke a substantial fraction of intrinsically single-planet systems \citep{2012ApJ...761...92F, 2019MNRAS.489.3162S}. While such a model can fit the observed multiplicity distribution, \cite{2019MNRAS.490.4575H} showed that it is an unlikely
explanation because it requires too many stars to have only one planet. Specifically, after assigning nearly coplanar multi-planet systems to target stars with an occurrence derived from the transiting multi-planet systems, the remaining proportion of stars is not large enough to account for the observed number of transit
singles. Moreover, the observed incidence of TTVs of Kepler planets does not provide evidence for a large population of intrinsic singles \citep{2011ApJS..197....2F, 2016ApJS..225....9H}.
\begin{figure*}
\epsscale{1.1}
\plotone{geometric_diagram_v2.pdf}
\caption{Schematic illustration of the physical set-up and concept of this study. A transiting planet experiences orbital precession induced by secular perturbations from a companion planet, which is non-transiting in this illustration. The orbital precession leads to changes in the transiting planet's inclination with respect to the line-of-sight (but not to the invariable plane) and the transit duration, $T_{\mathrm{dur}}$, here defined as the duration during which the center of the planet is projected in front of the stellar disk. Over long timescales ($10^{2-3}$ years), these transit duration variations (TDVs) manifest as an oscillation at the orbital precession period, as indicated with the example time evolution plot on the bottom left. However, over short timescales, such as the $\sim 4$ year baseline of the Kepler prime mission, the TDVs manifest as a linear trend with slope $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$. This is indicated with the zoom-in on the bottom right. The TDV slope depends on the mutual orbital inclinations. Examining the TDVs of an ensemble of planets thus allows us to place constraints on the distribution of mutual inclinations.}
\label{fig: geometric diagram}
\end{figure*}
The leading explanation of the Kepler dichotomy is that there is a distribution of mutual inclinations that includes a substantial fraction of systems with low mutual inclinations and a separate fraction of systems with significantly larger mutual inclinations. For example, there might be two (or more) sub-populations, one with $1^{\circ}-2^{\circ}$ mutual inclinations and one with $>30^{\circ}$ mutual inclinations. An alternative is a smooth distribution, such as a model in which the inclinations are drawn from a Rayleigh distribution with a width parameter that is itself a variable drawn from a smooth distribution \citep[e.g.][]{2011ApJS..197....8L} or that depends on the number
of planets in the system
\citep[e.g.][]{2016ApJ...832...34M, 2018ApJ...860..101Z}. However, both the statistical properties and physical origins of these variations are uncertain.
Recently, \cite{2019MNRAS.490.4575H, 2020AJ....160..276H} built a forward modeling framework capable of fitting a statistical description of the underlying planet population to the survey data by ``observing'' simulated planetary systems with the Kepler detection pipeline. \cite{2019MNRAS.490.4575H}, hereafter \citetalias{2019MNRAS.490.4575H}, showed that the observed multiplicity distribution (together with several other aspects of the Kepler population, including the distributions of orbital periods, period ratios, transit depths, depth ratios, and transit durations) can be described by two populations consisting of a low and high mutual inclination component, with $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{low}}\approx1^{\circ}-2^{\circ}$, $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}\approx30^{\circ}-65^{\circ}$, and $\sim40
\%$ of systems having high mutual inclinations. \citetalias{2019MNRAS.490.4575H}'s findings are similar to \cite{2018AJ....156...24M}, who used an analogous forward modeling framework and also found the data to be compatible with a dichotomous two-population model.
A more recent model by \cite{2020AJ....160..276H}, hereafter \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}, showed that the observations can also be reproduced when the mutual inclinations (and eccentricities) are distributed according to a stability limit dictated by the system's total angular momentum deficit \citep{2017A&A...605A..72L}. An interesting prediction of this model is an inverse correlation between the mutual inclination dispersion and the intrinsic multiplicity that is well-described by a power law, $\sigma_{i,n}\propto n^{\alpha}$ (with $n$ the multiplicity and $\alpha<0$). This feature is qualitatively similar to the model of \cite{2018ApJ...860..101Z}, and both lead to the same key conclusion that the mutual inclination distribution does not necessarily have to be dichotomous, but rather it can be characterized by a broad and multiplicity-dependent distribution.
The \citetalias{2019MNRAS.490.4575H} and \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H} models provide comparably good fits to the observations, which again reflects the fundamental degeneracy between the intrinsic multiplicity and mutual inclination distributions. Breaking this degeneracy requires an extra source of information, such as data from RVs \citep{2012AJ....143...94T, 2012A&A...541A.139F} or TTVs \citep{2018ApJ...860..101Z}. In this work, we consider transit duration variations (TDVs) as a hitherto unexploited source of extra information that is highly sensitive to the mutual inclination distribution. Secular (long-term average) planet-planet interactions lead to apsidal and nodal precession of the orbits on a timescale of $10^{2-3}$ years for typical Kepler planets \citep{2019NatAs...3..424M}. As first pointed out by \cite{2002ApJ...564.1019M}, this orbital precession leads to variations in the transit duration of transiting planets that manifest as a slow drift on observable timescales (see Figure \ref{fig: geometric diagram}). The drift timescale is sensitive to mutual inclinations because the signal goes as $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}\propto \dot{\Omega}P\sin{i}$ \citep{2002ApJ...564.1019M}, where $i$ is the transiting planet's inclination with respect to the invariable plane and $\Omega$ is the longitude of the ascending node. Moreover, TDVs of planets in single-transiting systems encode information about inclined, non-transiting companion planets.
TDV signals have been detected for $\sim30$ Kepler planets \citep{2016ApJS..225....9H, 2019AJ....157..171K, 2021MNRAS.tmp.1312S}. Notable examples include Kepler-108 \citep{2017AJ....153...45M}, Kepler-693 \citep{2017AJ....154...64M}, and Kepler-9 \citep{2018A&A...618A..41F, 2019MNRAS.484.3233B}. The TDVs have led to mutual inclination constraints in these systems. In other examples \citep[e.g.][]{2012Natur.487..449S}, an absence of TDVs has been used as evidence for low mutual inclinations. Recently, \cite{2020AJ....159..207B} investigated observed planets that are the best candidates for exhibiting detectable TDV signals in near-future observations. In addition, \cite{2020AJ....159..223D} described how to use TDVs to infer systems' three-dimensional architectures. While this paper was in review, \cite{2021MNRAS.tmp.1312S} published a new comprehensive analysis of TDVs of Kepler planets, building off of \cite{2016ApJS..225....9H}. Overall, their results are complementary to this work; where relevant, we will discuss specific comparisons.
Here we use TDVs to constrain the mutual inclination distribution of Kepler systems. We accomplish this by comparing the TDV statistics of the observed planet population to expectations from simulated planet populations constructed by the forward models of \citetalias{2019MNRAS.490.4575H} and \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}. Both models reproduce many aspects of the Kepler survey statistics, but they have significantly different intrinsic mutual inclination distributions. In Section \ref{sec: analytic calculation}, we describe the relevant equations for orbital precession-induced TDVs, including an analytic calculation of $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$. In Section \ref{sec: methods}, we describe our methods for calculating the TDVs of the simulated planets and comparing their properties to the observed Kepler planets with TDVs. We summarize our results in Section \ref{sec: results}. Namely, we show that the TDV statistics of the observed planets strongly support the non-dichotomous model of \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H} and disfavor the dichotomous model of \citetalias{2019MNRAS.490.4575H}. In Section \ref{sec: discussion}, we review the proposed theories for generating mutual inclinations among Kepler planets and discuss which are most consistent with our results.
\section{Analytic Calculation of Transit Duration Variations}
\label{sec: analytic calculation}
We begin with an analytic calculation of a planet's transit duration variation (TDV), which is related to the time derivative of its transit duration, $T_{\mathrm{dur}}$. Our derivation bears resemblance to that of \cite{2002ApJ...564.1019M}, but we allow for arbitrary eccentricities rather than assume circular orbits. We will consider the orbital evolution to be secular, with the semi-major axis, $a$, approximately constant. In this case, the time evolution of $T_{\mathrm{dur}}$ is driven by orbital precession of the longitude of the ascending node, $\Omega$, and the argument of periapse, $\omega$, as well as changes in the orbital eccentricity, $e$. Our goal is to relate $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ to $\dot{\Omega}$, $\dot{\omega}$, and $\dot{e}$.
Within the following derivation, there are three distinct planes to keep in mind: (1) the orbital plane, which is perpendicular to the planet's orbital angular momentum vector; (2) the invariable plane, which is perpendicular to the system's total angular momentum vector; and (3) the sky plane, which is perpendicular to the line-of-sight. Specifically, we define the invariable plane to be $xy$, with the $x$-axis the intersection of the invariable plane and the sky plane. The planet's orbital plane has an inclination, $i$, with respect to the invariable plane, and the line of nodes of the orbit forms an angle $\Omega$ with the $x$-axis. Note that here we will assume $i$ is constant. This is strictly only valid for a two-planet system, but it is a good approximation when considering TDVs over a baseline as short as the $\sim4$ year Kepler mission, which is much shorter than the secular timescales over which $i$ varies. For simplicity, we will also assume $R_p \ll R_{\star}$, a good approximation for the sub-Neptune-sized planets we are focusing on here. It is straightforward to generalize the treatment without this assumption \citep{2002ApJ...564.1019M}.
For $a\gg R_\star$, a planet's transit duration is given by
\begin{equation}
T_{\mathrm{dur}} = \frac{2 R_{\star} \sqrt{1-b^2}}{v_{\mathrm{mid}}},
\label{eq: Tdur}
\end{equation}
where $R_{\star}$ is the stellar radius, $b$ is the dimensionless impact parameter, and $v_{\mathrm{mid}}$ is the sky-projected orbital velocity at mid-transit, given by
\begin{equation}
v_{\mathrm{mid}} = \frac{n a(1+e\sin\omega_{\mathrm{sky}})}{\sqrt{1-e^2}}.
\label{eq: vmid}
\end{equation}
Here, $n = 2\pi/P$ is the mean-motion, $e$ is the orbital eccentricity, and $\omega_{\mathrm{sky}}$ is the argument of periapse measured with respect to the sky plane. The argument $\omega_{\mathrm{sky}}$ is related to the corresponding invariable plane angle $\omega$ via the expression \citep{2020AJ....160..195J}
\begin{equation}
\tan(\omega_{\mathrm{sky}} - \omega) = \frac{\sin{\Omega}\cos{\beta}}{\cos{\Omega}\cos{i}\cos{\beta} + \sin{i}\sin{\beta}}.
\label{eq: omega_sky and omega relationship}
\end{equation}
Here, $\beta$ is the fixed angle between the invariable plane and the line of sight. Put another way, $\beta = \pi/2 - i_{\mathrm{inv}}$, where $i_{\mathrm{inv}}$ is the angle between the invariable plane and the sky plane.
Taking the time derivative of equation \ref{eq: Tdur} yields
\begin{equation}
\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}} = - T_{\mathrm{dur}}\bigg[\dot{b}\frac{b}{(1-b^2)} + \frac{\dot{v}_{\mathrm{mid}}}{v_{\mathrm{mid}}}\bigg].
\label{eq: dTdur/dt}
\end{equation}
The time derivatives $\dot{b}$ and $\dot{v}_{\mathrm{mid}}$ are driven by orbital precession of the longitude of the ascending node and the argument of periapse, as well as changes in the orbital eccentricity. These are parameterized by $\dot{\omega}$, $\dot{\Omega}$, and $\dot{e}$, respectively. As for the first term in equation \ref{eq: dTdur/dt}, we can compute $\dot{b}$ by using the definition of the dimensionless impact parameter,
\begin{equation}
b = \frac{r_{\mathrm{mid}}\sin{\alpha}}{R_{\star}},
\label{eq: b}
\end{equation}
where $r_{\mathrm{mid}}$ is the star-planet separation at mid-transit,
\begin{equation}
r_{\mathrm{mid}} = \frac{a(1-e^2)}{1+e\sin{\omega_{\mathrm{sky}}}}.
\label{r_mid}
\end{equation}
The quantity $\alpha$ is the angle between the orbital plane of the planet and the line of sight. (Alternatively, $\alpha = \pi/2 - i_{\mathrm{sky}}$, where $i_{\mathrm{sky}}$ is the orbital inclination with respect to the sky plane.) This angle is related to the other angles in the problem via \citep{2020AJ....160..195J}
\begin{equation}
\label{eq: sin(alpha)}
\sin\alpha = -\sin{i}\cos{\Omega}\cos{\beta} + \cos{i}\sin{\beta}.
\end{equation}
Using these relationships, we obtain
\begin{comment}
\begin{equation}
\dot{b} = -\dot{\Omega}\left(\frac{r_{\mathrm{mid}}}{R_{\star}}\right)\sin{i}\cos{\beta}\sin{\Omega},
\end{equation}
\end{comment}
\begin{equation}
\label{eq: db/dt}
\dot{b} = \frac{1}{R_{\star}}\left[\dot{r}_{\mathrm{mid}}\sin{\alpha}+r_{\mathrm{mid}}\dot{\Omega}\sin{i}\cos{\beta}\sin{\Omega}\right],
\end{equation}
where $\dot{r}_{\mathrm{mid}}$ can be calculated from equation \ref{r_mid},
\begin{equation}
\dot{r}_{\mathrm{mid}} = \frac{a[-2e\dot{e}(1+e\sin\omega_{\mathrm{sky}}) - (1-e^2)\frac{\mathrm{d}}{\mathrm{d}t}(e\sin\omega_{\mathrm{sky}})]}{(1+e\sin\omega_{\mathrm{sky}})^2}.
\end{equation}
As for the second term in the expression for $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ (equation \ref{eq: dTdur/dt}), $\dot{v}_{\mathrm{mid}}$ can be calculated by differentiating equation \ref{eq: vmid}
\begin{equation}
\dot{v}_{\mathrm{mid}} = na\frac{\dot{e}(e + \sin{\omega_{\mathrm{sky}}}) + \dot{\omega}_{\mathrm{sky}}e\cos{\omega_{\mathrm{sky}}} (1-e^2)}{(1-e^2)^{\frac{3}{2}}}.
\end{equation}
We can relate this expression to $\omega$ and $\dot{\omega}$ by using equation \ref{eq: omega_sky and omega relationship}, from which $\dot{\omega}$ can be calculated straightforwardly, recalling that both $\beta$ and $i$ are held fixed.
\subsection{Lagrange's Planetary Equations}
Equipped with the analytic formula for $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ in terms of $\dot{\Omega}$, $\dot{\omega}$, and $\dot{e}$, we now move on to the analytic calculations of these three latter quantities.
Lagrange's planetary equations yield \citep{1999ssd..book.....M}
\begin{equation}
\label{eq: Lagrange's planetary equations}
\begin{split}
\dot{e} &= -\frac{\sqrt{1-e^2}}{n a^2 e}\frac{\partial\mathcal{R}}{\partial\varpi} \\
\dot{\Omega} &= \frac{1}{n a^2 \sqrt{1-e^2}\sin{i}}\frac{\partial\mathcal{R}}{\partial i} \\
\dot{\varpi} &= \dot{\Omega} + \dot{\omega} = \frac{\sqrt{1-e^2}}{n a^2 e}\frac{\partial\mathcal{R}}{\partial e} + \frac{\tan{\frac{1}{2}i}}{n a^2 \sqrt{1-e^2}}\frac{\partial\mathcal{R}}{\partial i}.
\end{split}
\end{equation}
Here, $\mathcal{R}$ is the disturbing function, or the non-Keplerian perturbing gravitational potential experienced by the planets due to their mutual interactions. We adopt a secular expansion of $\mathcal{R}$ to fourth-order in $e$ and ${s\equiv\sin(i/2)}$ using the Appendix tables from \cite{1999ssd..book.....M}. The resulting disturbing function expansion is provided in Appendix \ref{sec: Appendix disturbing function expansion}.
\subsection{Comparison of analytic TDV to \textit{N}-body}
\label{sec: comparison to N-body}
In Appendix \ref{sec: Appendix comparison of analytic TDV to N-body}, we assess the accuracy of the analytic calculation of $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ by showing how it compares to a direct $N$-body computation. We demonstrate that the analytic calculation performs well when inclinations are low, $i \lesssim 10^{\circ}$. In this regime, the analytic $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ is within $50\%$ of the $N$-body $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ in roughly three quarters of cases. However, when inclinations are larger than $\sim10^{\circ}$, there can be orders-of-magnitude discrepancies between the analytic calculation and the $N$-body result. This occurs because the disturbing function expansion breaks down for large $e$ and $i$, leading to perturbations in the equations for $\dot{e}$, $\dot{\Omega}$, and $\dot{\varpi}$. As we will describe in Section \ref{sec: TDV calculation}, this accuracy problem ultimately limits the applicability of the analytic $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ calculation.
\section{Methods}
\label{sec: methods}
Our goal is to constrain the underlying distribution of Kepler planet mutual inclinations by comparing the TDVs of the observed Kepler planets to those of various simulated planet populations with different mutual inclination distributions. In this section, we describe our methods. We define our observed and simulated planet populations in Sections \ref{sec: observations} and \ref{sec: simulations}, respectively. We then explain the procedure for identifying detectable TDVs of the simulated planets in Section \ref{sec: name this subsection}.
\subsection{Observations: TDVs of Kepler Planets}
\label{sec: observations}
\setlength{\extrarowheight}{2pt}
\setlength\tabcolsep{15pt}
\begin{table*}[t]
\centering
\caption{\textbf{KOIs with Significant TDV Slopes.} List of KOIs from the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} TDV catalog with $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|> 3 \ \sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}$ that pass our additional cuts on planet and stellar properties. $N_{\mathrm{obs}}$ is the observed transit multiplicity of the system according to the Kepler DR25 catalog \citep{2018ApJS..235...38T}. Orbital periods are drawn from DR25; planetary radii are from \cite{2020AJ....160..108B}; and the $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ measurements are from the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} TDV catalog.}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c}
\hline
\hline
KOI & Kepler name & $N_{\mathrm{obs}}$ & $P$ [days] & $R_p$ [$R_{\oplus}$] & $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ [min/yr] \\
\hline
103.01 & -- & 1 & 14.911 & $2.55^{+0.06}_{-0.05}$ & $5.0\pm1.1$\\
137.02 & Kepler-18 d & 3 & 14.859 & $5.16^{+0.09}_{-0.11}$ & $1.73\pm0.41$ \\
139.01 & Kepler-111 c & 2 & 224.779 & $6.91^{+0.16}_{-0.17}$ & $8.1\pm2.0$ \\
142.01 & Kepler-88 b & 1 & 10.916 & $3.84^{+0.08}_{-0.31}$ & $1.98\pm0.58$ \\
209.02 & Kepler-117 b & 2 & 18.796 & $8.36^{+0.33}_{-0.52}$ & $2.98\pm0.82$ \\
377.01 & Kepler-9 b & 3 & 19.271 & $7.9^{+0.16}_{-0.16}$ & $1.64\pm0.3$ \\
377.02 & Kepler-9 c & 3 & 38.908 & $8.14^{+0.18}_{-0.18}$ & $-4.58\pm0.56$ \\
460.01 & Kepler-559 b & 2 & 17.588 & $3.41^{+0.11}_{-0.09}$ & $6.0\pm1.5$ \\
806.01 & Kepler-30 d & 3 & 143.206 & $8.79^{+0.49}_{-0.31}$ & $6.3\pm1.9$ \\
841.02 & Kepler-27 c & 5 & 31.33 & $6.24^{+0.24}_{-0.28}$ & $3.6\pm1.1$ \\
872.01 & Kepler-46 b & 2 & 33.601 & $7.45^{+0.2}_{-0.26}$ & $5.78\pm0.83$ \\
1320.01 & Kepler-816 b & 1 & 10.507 & $9.44^{+0.46}_{-0.36}$ & $-1.88\pm0.44$ \\
1423.01 & Kepler-841 b & 1 & 124.42 & $5.02^{+0.25}_{-0.19}$ & $3.7\pm1.1$ \\
1856.01 & -- & 1 & 46.299 & $2.24^{+0.08}_{-0.05}$ & $-11.8\pm3.1$ \\
2698.01 & Kepler-1316 b & 1 & 87.972 & $3.4^{+0.11}_{-0.08}$ & $18.1\pm4.5$ \\
2770.01 & -- & 1 & 205.386 & $2.26^{+0.13}_{-0.08}$ & $19.4\pm6.4$ \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\label{tab: KOIs with TDVs}
\end{table*}
We first identify a set of Kepler planets with significant TDVs. These planets will later be compared to the simulated planets. As part of their comprehensive catalog of TTV measurements for 2599 Kepler Objects of Interest (KOIs) across the full 17 quarters of the Kepler mission, \cite{2016ApJS..225....9H} (hereafter \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H}) also measured transit depths and durations. The duration and depth measurements were limited to cases with $T_{\mathrm{dur}} > 1.5$ hr and $\mathrm{SNR} > 10$, where SNR is the signal-to-noise per transit.
As a result, a total of 779 KOIs have duration and depth measurements. These were then analyzed for any TDVs or TPVs (transit depth variations) by identifying potentially significant periodicities or long term trends. The long term trends, quantified by the TDV slope $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$, are the most relevant for our analysis, as these are the expected signal of duration drifts induced by orbital precession.
\citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} summarized their results for TDVs in the in the \texttt{TDV\_statistics.txt}
file at \href{ftp://wise-ftp.tau.ac.il/pub/tauttv/TTV/ver_112}{ftp://wise-ftp.tau.ac.il/pub/tauttv/TTV/ver\_112}. We will refer to this as the ``\citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} TDV catalog''. In particular, the quantities that are relevant to our analysis are the slope of the TDV measurements and the estimated error of the slope. We apply several cuts to the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} TDV catalog to establish a list of observed planets with detected TDVs.
\begin{enumerate}
\item \textit{Significant TDV slope:} We consider a detectable transit duration drift to be one with ${|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|> 3 \ \sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}}$. A total of 31 KOIs pass this criterion.
\footnote{\cite{2021MNRAS.tmp.1312S} updated the calculation of $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ from the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} TDV data and used a different definition of a significant TDV slope. This yielded a slightly different set of KOIs with significant TDV slopes but an identical number (when including those which \cite{2021MNRAS.tmp.1312S} labeled ``intermediate significance'').}
\item \textit{Cuts on planet properties:} The simulated planet population that we will introduce in Section \ref{sec: simulations} is restricted to planets with $3 \ \mathrm{days} < P < 300 \ \mathrm{days}$ and $0.5 \ R_{\oplus} < R_p < 10 \ R_{\oplus}$. Applying these cuts leaves 21 remaining KOIs. Most of the removed planets are cut for having $R_p > 10 \ R_{\oplus}$. Three have $P < 3$ days.
\item \textit{Cuts on stellar properties:} The simulated planet population is built using a curated sample of FGK dwarf stars, developed using a series of quality cuts on the Kepler DR25 target list in conjunction with target information from Gaia DR2 \citepalias{2019MNRAS.490.4575H, 2020AJ....160..276H}. We require the host stars of the observed planets to be in this cleaned stellar input catalog. After this requirement, we are left with 16 remaining KOIs.
\end{enumerate}
The final list of 16 KOIs with significant TDV slopes are shown in Table \ref{tab: KOIs with TDVs}. The 16 KOIs are part of 15 systems. Of these, seven are single-transiting systems; four are double-transiting systems; three are triple-transiting systems; and one is a quintuple-transiting system. Examples of TDV drift signals observed for Kepler-9 b and c are shown in Figure \ref{fig: Kepler-9 TDVs}.
\begin{figure}[t]
\epsscale{1.2}
\plotone{Kepler_9_TDVs.pdf}
\caption{Examples of the TDV drift signal, shown here for Kepler-9 b and c (KOI 377.01 and 377.02). The data for the TDVs, given by $\mathrm{TDV} = (T_{\mathrm{dur}} - \bar{T}_{\mathrm{dur}})/\bar{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$, is taken from \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H}. The green curves represents the best-fit lines, with slopes equal to those from the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} TDV catalog.}
\label{fig: Kepler-9 TDVs}
\end{figure}
\subsection{Simulations: SysSim Planet Populations}
\label{sec: simulations}
We consider populations of simulated planets from the SysSim (short for ``Planetary Systems Simulator'') forward modeling framework. SysSim is an empirical model that generates simulated planetary systems according to flexibly parameterized statistical descriptions. It was first introduced by \cite{2018AJ....155..205H} and has undergone continuous development by \cite{2019AJ....158..109H}, \citetalias{2019MNRAS.490.4575H}, \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}, and \cite{2021AJ....161...16H}. The model has been calibrated using a range of summary statistics of the observed Kepler planet population, including (but not limited to) the observed distributions of multiplicities, orbital periods and period ratios, transit depths and depth ratios, and transit durations. SysSim is implemented in the Julia programming language \citep{2014arXiv1411.1607B} within the ExoplanetsSysSim.jl package. Both the core SysSim code (\href{https://github.com/ExoJulia/ExoplanetsSysSim.jl}{https://github.com/ExoJulia/ExoplanetsSysSim.jl}) and the specific forward models explored in this study (\href{https://github.com/ExoJulia/SysSimExClusters}{https://github.com/ExoJulia/SysSimExClusters}) are publicly available. More information can be found in the key papers mentioned above. We provide a brief description of the model below.
The process of the SysSim forward modeling framework is to first generate an underlying population of planetary systems (``physical catalog'') according to a statistical model of the intrinsic distribution of systems. The physical catalog is a simulated realization designed to resemble the entire population of Kepler planetary systems, including planets that are not observed. The next step is to generate an observed population of planetary systems (``observed catalog'') from the physical catalog by simulating the full Kepler detection pipeline and determining which planets would be detected by the pipeline and labeled as planet candidates during the automated vetting process. This simulated observed catalog is then compared with the true Kepler planet population using a set of summary statistics and a distance function. The preceding steps are repeated iteratively in order to optimize the distance function and identify the best-fit parameters of the statistical model. Finally, Approximate Bayesian Computing is applied to approximate the posterior distributions of model parameters.
In this work, we do not implement extensions of SysSim or fit new statistical models. Rather, we examine sets of simulated catalogs from two previously optimized models from \citetalias{2019MNRAS.490.4575H} and \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}. These models effectively describe many aspects of the Kepler population statistics, and they fit the data nearly equally well. By construction, the two models are similar in most ways, but they differ primarily in the distributions of eccentricities, inclinations, and number of planets per star.
\subsubsection{Two-Rayleigh model}
\label{sec: Two-Rayleigh model}
\citetalias{2019MNRAS.490.4575H} considered independent distributions of eccentricities and inclinations. The eccentricities were drawn from a Rayleigh distribution, $e \sim \mathrm{Rayleigh}(\sigma_e)$. The mutual inclinations were drawn from one of two Rayleigh distributions, representing a low and high inclination population, with the fraction of systems belonging to the high inclination population being $f_{\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}}$.\footnote{The model also assigns mutual inclinations drawn from the low scale ($\sigma_{i,\rm low}$) for all planets near a first-order mean motion resonance (MMR) with another planet (defined as having a period ratio within 5\% greater than $(i+1):i$ for any $i = 1,2,3,4$), regardless of whether the system belongs to the high or low inclination population. Around $30\%$ of the simulated planets are near a first-order MMR, and approximately half ($f_{\rm mmr} \simeq 0.49$) of all simulated systems with at least one planet contain such a planet pair. Thus, the fraction of planetary systems where near-MMR planets are reassigned low mutual inclinations is $f_{\rm mmr} \times f_{\sigma_{i,\rm high}} = 0.21_{-0.05}^{+0.07}$.} That is,
\begin{equation}
i\sim
\begin{cases}
\mathrm{Rayleigh}(\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}), \ \ u<f_{\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}} \\
\mathrm{Rayleigh}(\sigma_{i,\mathrm{low}}), \ \ u \geq f_{\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}}, \\
\end{cases}
\end{equation}
where $u \sim \mathrm{Unif}(0,1)$.
Because of the dichotomous nature of the inclination distribution, we will call this the ``two-Rayleigh model''.
After fitting to the Kepler data, \citetalias{2019MNRAS.490.4575H} identified best-fit parameters equal to $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{low}} = 1.40^{+0.54}_{-0.39}$ deg, $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}} = 48^{+17}_{-17}$ deg, and $f_{\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}} = 0.42^{+0.08}_{-0.07}$. The high inclination component makes up nearly half of the total population of systems (and nearly a third of all planets), but the mutual inclination scale $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}$ is poorly constrained, although clearly greater than $\sim 10^{\circ}$. We note that, in this work, we use the two-Rayleigh model of \cite{2021AJ....161...16H}, which is similar to \citetalias{2019MNRAS.490.4575H} but with an additional dependence of the fraction of stars with planets on the host star color. This feature is also present in the model introduced in the next section, allowing for a better comparison.
\subsubsection{Maximum AMD model}
\label{sec: Maximum AMD model}
The second model uses a joint distribution in which the eccentricity and inclination distributions are dependent and correlated with the number of planets in a system.
This contrasts with the first model, where eccentricities and inclinations are independent of one another and of the number of planets in a system.
The second approach is based on the argument that a system's long-term orbital stability is governed by its angular momentum deficit (AMD). The AMD is defined as the difference between the total orbital angular momentum of the system and what it would be if all orbits were circular and coplanar \citep[e.g.][]{2017A&A...605A..72L}. For a system of $N$ planets, the AMD can be written as
\begin{equation}
\label{eq: AMD}
\mathrm{AMD} = \sum_{k=1}^{N}\Lambda_k(1-\sqrt{1-e_k^2}\cos{i_k}),
\end{equation}
where $\Lambda_k = M_{p,k}\sqrt{G M_{\star} a_k}$.
This quantity is effectively a measure of the dynamical excitation of the system, and it is a conserved quantity when the orbits are evolving secularly. The AMD has been shown to be a reasonable predictor of long-term stability, at least when mean-motion resonances are absent and when distant and dynamically-detached planets are not included in the AMD calculation \citep{2017A&A...605A..72L}.
The assumption of \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H} is that all systems have the critical (i.e.\ maximum) AMD for stability, calculated using the analytic criteria from \cite{2017A&A...605A..72L} and \cite{2017A&A...607A..35P}. The physical justification for this assumption is that collisional events during planet formation decrease the total AMD, such that systems may generally evolve from outside the stability limit to just inside after a sequence of collisions. While this ``maximum AMD model'' assumption breaks down at a detailed level (i.e.\ not all systems are exactly at the critical AMD), it is a useful physical framework for assigning system orbital properties and has been shown to reproduce many aspects of the Kepler data \citepalias{2020AJ....160..276H}. In this work, we are primarily interested in the model's mutual inclination and eccentricity distributions.
Given a set of planet masses and orbital periods of a system, \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H} assigned orbital properties by (1) calculating the system's critical AMD, (2) distributing the AMD among the planets per unit mass, and (3) further randomly dividing each planet's AMD to eccentricity and inclination components. This approach results in eccentricities and inclinations that are correlated with one another at the population level. Another key feature that emerges from the model is an inverse trend of inclination and eccentricity dispersion with intrinsic multiplicity. In particular, \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H} found that the median mutual inclination, $\tilde{\mu}_{i,n}$, of systems with $n = 2, 3, ..., 10$ planets is well modeled by a power-law relationship of the form
\begin{equation}
\label{eq: mutual inclination power law}
\tilde{\mu}_{i,n} = \tilde{\mu}_{i,5}\left(\frac{n}{5}\right)^{\alpha},
\end{equation}
with $\tilde{\mu}_{i,5} = 1.10^{+0.15}_{-0.11}$ and $\alpha = -1.73^{+0.09}_{-0.08}$. This power-law relationship is qualitatively similar but shallower than that inferred by \cite{2018ApJ...860..101Z}. Equation \ref{eq: mutual inclination power law} illustrates that the typical mutual inclinations of systems within the maximum AMD model are less than a few degrees, in sharp contrast with the two-Rayleigh model.
\subsubsection{Model comparison}
\label{sec: model comparison}
\begin{figure}
\epsscale{1.}
\plotone{AMD_model_i_vs_e_scatterplot.pdf}
\plotone{Two_Rayleigh_model_i_vs_e_scatterplot_sigma_i_high_20.pdf}
\plotone{Two_Rayleigh_model_i_vs_e_scatterplot_sigma_i_high_60.pdf}
\caption{Scatter plots of orbital inclinations referenced to the invariable plane ($i$) versus eccentricity ($e$) for intrinsic multi-planet systems in SysSim physical catalogs. The top panel considers a single physical catalog from the maximum AMD model. The middle and bottom panels consider physical catalogs from the two-Rayleigh model using $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}} = 20^{\circ}$ and $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}} = 60^{\circ}$, respectively. To illustrate the scatter plot density, we display a set of contours calculated using a Gaussian kernel density estimation. }
\label{fig: i vs e scatterplots}
\end{figure}
The two-Rayleigh model and maximum AMD model both fit the Kepler data roughly equally well (see \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H} Section 3.1),
but they have very different underlying inclination and eccentricity distributions. To illustrate these differences, Figure \ref{fig: i vs e scatterplots} displays scatter plots of inclinations and eccentricities of intrinsic multi-planet systems in SysSim physical catalogs. We observe that eccentricities and inclinations are strongly correlated when distributed according to the maximum AMD model. Moreover, the maximum AMD model contains considerably fewer systems with very high inclination configurations than the two-Rayleigh model. For instance, $97\%$ of the mutual inclinations are below $10^{\circ}$ in the maximum AMD example plotted in Figure \ref{fig: i vs e scatterplots}, whereas $68\%$ and $63\%$ of the inclinations are below $10^{\circ}$ in the $\sigma_{i,{\mathrm{high}}} = 20^{\circ}$ and $\sigma_{i,{\mathrm{high}}} = 60^{\circ}$ two-Rayleigh model examples, respectively.
As a caveat, we note that the simulated systems have not been evaluated for long-term orbital stability in either model. The systems in the maximum AMD model obey the AMD stability criterion by construction, but that doesn't guarantee that they are all long-term stable \citep{2021arXiv210104117C}. They are, however, more likely to be stable than the systems in the two-Rayleigh model, which frequently have very high inclinations (sometimes even $> 90^{\circ}$). This difference means that a direct comparison of the two models is slightly misleading. A stability analysis would require significant computation but would be interesting to address in future SysSim models.
\subsection{TDV calculations of SysSim Planets}
\label{sec: name this subsection}
For each the two-Rayleigh model and maximum AMD model, we aim to compare the TDVs of the simulated planets with those of the observed Kepler planets. We thus need to simulate the TDV detection process for the SysSim planets in a similar way as the true observations, which are obtained from the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} TDV catalog (Section \ref{sec: observations}). Clearly, we can only measure TDVs for planets in the observed catalog (i.e.\ that have been ``detected'' in transit), but we also need to consider whether they have parameters suitable for individual transit duration measurements and whether their TDV signal has a detectable slope. We will discuss this process in three steps: TDV measurability (Section \ref{sec: TDV measurability}), TDV calculation (Section \ref{sec: TDV calculation}), and TDV slope detectability (Section \ref{sec: TDV slope detectability}). We will then summarize the process end-to-end in Section \ref{sec: summary of the full process}.
\subsubsection{TDV measurability}
\label{sec: TDV measurability}
We must first determine which planets in a given observed catalog have transits with sufficiently high signal-to-noise (SNR) such that individual transit durations would be measurable and the planet would enter into the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} TDV catalog. We summarize this as a planet having ``TDV measurability''. \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} derived individual transit durations only when $T_{\mathrm{dur}} > 1.5$ hr and $\mathrm{SNR} > 10$; we thus apply these same thresholds to the SysSim planets.
We calculate the individual transit SNR of planets in the SysSim observed catalogs as
\begin{equation}
\label{eq: SNR}
\mathrm{SNR} = \frac{\delta}{\mathrm{CDPP_{eff}}}.
\end{equation}
Here $\delta$ is the transit depth and $\mathrm{CDPP_{eff}}$ is the effective combined differential photometric precision, given by
\begin{equation}
\label{eq: CDPP_eff}
\mathrm{CDPP_{eff}} = f_{\mathrm{CDPP}} \times \mathrm{CDPP}_{1.5 \ \mathrm{hr}}\sqrt{\frac{1.5 \ \mathrm{hr}}{T_{\mathrm{dur}}}}.
\end{equation}
$\mathrm{CDPP}_{1.5 \ \mathrm{hr}}$ is the mission average of the 1.5 hr duration combined differential photometric precision (CDPP) for the target star, taken from the Kepler Q1-Q17 DR 25 stellar catalog \citep{2018ApJS..235...38T}. Equation \ref{eq: CDPP_eff} also contains a scaling factor, $f_{\mathrm{CDPP}} < 1$, that accounts for a systematic offset in the calculated SNR compared to that of \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H}. The systematic offset arises because \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} derived the transit SNR using measurement uncertainties, rather than the CDPP. The CDPP is larger because it includes both photon noise and variability due to the star and the instrument. We identify the optimal scaling factor by calculating the SNR for the planets in the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} TDV catalog and minimizing the difference with respect to \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H}'s reported SNR values. The resulting value is $f_{\mathrm{CDPP}} = 0.8707$. Figure \ref{fig: SNR scatterplots} shows the calculated SNR versus the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} SNR, before and after the scaling factor correction.
\begin{figure}
\epsscale{1.1}
\plotone{SNR_H16_TDV_catalog_vs_SNR_from_CDPP_before_correction.pdf}
\plotone{SNR_H16_TDV_catalog_vs_SNR_from_CDPP_after_correction.pdf}
\caption{Calibration of the SNR calculation. We show the calculated SNR (using equation \ref{eq: SNR}) versus the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} SNR for the planets in the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} TDV catalog. The top panel is before the scaling correction ($f_{\mathrm{CDPP}} = 1$), and the bottom panel is after the correction ($f_{\mathrm{CDPP}} = 0.8707$). The black line is one-to-one.}
\label{fig: SNR scatterplots}
\end{figure}
\newpage
\subsubsection{TDV calculation}
\label{sec: TDV calculation}
After a planet is deemed to have sufficiently high transit SNR such that the individual transit durations would be measurable, we obtain an estimate of its TDV slope, $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$. All planets in the system (transiting or not) are accounted for in this calculation. For systems with two or more planets, we calculate $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ in two ways. The first is the analytic calculation outlined in Section~\ref{sec: analytic calculation}. The second is a numerical approach aided by the \texttt{REBOUND} $N$-body gravitational dynamics software \citep{2012A&A...537A.128R}. We use the \texttt{REBOUND} Wisdom-Holman integrator \citep{2015MNRAS.452..376R} to calculate a short orbital evolution over a 4 year baseline (approximately the length of the Kepler prime mission). The integration uses a timestep equal to $0.1 P_1$. We do not account for general relativity (or any other additional forces), since the perturbations on $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ from general relativistic apsidal precession are negligible relative to the influences of nodal precession. Following the integration, we calculate $T_{\mathrm{dur}}$ as a function of time using equation~\ref{eq: Tdur} (along with the other relevant relationships for $b$ and $v_{\mathrm{mid}}$). Finally, we perform a least-squares linear fit to $T_{\mathrm{dur}}$ vs. time to calculate $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$.
As discussed in Section \ref{sec: comparison to N-body} and Appendix \ref{sec: Appendix comparison of analytic TDV to N-body}, the analytic calculation of $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ is adequate (relative to $N$-body) when inclinations are low (i.e.\ $i\lesssim10^{\circ}$, as in the maximum AMD model) but can have orders-of-magnitude discrepancies at high inclinations (i.e.\ in the two-Rayleigh model). In order to avoid systematic errors in our study of the two models, we opt to use the $N$-body $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ calculation for all analyses going forward. The analytic derivation, however, is still useful for physical insight and for quick calculations in low inclination systems.
\subsubsection{TDV slope detectability}
\label{sec: TDV slope detectability}
The next step is to determine whether the calculated TDV slope, $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$, would be detectable according to the $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}| > 3 \ \sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}$ threshold identified above for the observed systems. We thus require an estimate of the TDV slope uncertainty, $\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}$, to use in conjunction with the calculated $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$. Using generalized least squares, $\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}$ can be related to the individual transit duration uncertainty, $(\sigma_{T_{\mathrm{dur}}})_{\mathrm{ind}}$, via the expression
\begin{equation}
\label{eq: sigma_dotT v1}
\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}^2 \approx \frac{(\sigma_{T_{\mathrm{dur}}}^2)_{\mathrm{ind}}}{P^2 f_0 \sum_{j=-M}^{M}j^2}.
\end{equation}
Here $f_0$ is the duty cycle (the fraction of data cadences with valid data), and the transits are assumed to run from $-M$ to $M$ in the absence of data gaps.
(In principle, one could estimate the increased uncertainty due to some transits not being observed by not including the corresponding $j^2$ terms in the denominator of equation \ref{eq: sigma_dotT v1}.)
We approximate $M \approx t_{\mathrm{obs}}/(2P)$, where $t_{\mathrm{obs}}$ is the total observation time span.
Next, we can simplify equation \ref{eq: sigma_dotT v1} by expressing $(\sigma_{T_{\mathrm{dur}}})_{\mathrm{ind}}$ in terms of the composite transit duration uncertainty, $\sigma_{T_{\mathrm{dur}}}$, and the number of transits, $N_{\mathrm{tr}}$, yielding
$(\sigma_{T_{\mathrm{dur}}}^2)_{\mathrm{ind}} = \sigma_{T_{\mathrm{dur}}}^2N_{\mathrm{tr}} = \sigma_{T_{\mathrm{dur}}}^2 t_{\mathrm{obs}}f_0/P$. Substituting this into equation \ref{eq: sigma_dotT v1} and adding a scaling factor, $f_{\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}}$, yields
\begin{equation}
\label{eq: sigma_dotT v2}
\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}^2 = \frac{\sigma_{T_{\mathrm{dur}}}^2 t_{\mathrm{obs}}f_{\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}}^2}{P^3 \sum_{j=-M}^{M}j^2}.
\end{equation}
Similar to the calculation of $\mathrm{CDPP_{eff}}$ in equation \ref{eq: CDPP_eff}, the scaling factor is required to calibrate $\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}$ to the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} TDV catalog. Using equation \ref{eq: sigma_dotT v2} without a scaling factor leads to a systematic overestimation of the calculated $\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}$ compared to the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} values because of differences in the $\sigma_{T_{\mathrm{dur}}}$ calculation. It appears that \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H}'s use of measurement uncertainties rather than the CDPP led them to underestimate $\sigma_{T_{\mathrm{dur}}}$ and that this effect was greater than the impact of Kepler's duty cycle being less than 100\%. We solve for the optimal value of $f_{\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}}$ by calculating $\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}$ for the planets in the \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H} TDV catalog and minimizing the difference with respect to \citetalias{2016ApJS..225....9H}'s reported values. The resulting value is ${f_{\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}} = 0.7378}$.
We use equation \ref{eq: sigma_dotT v2} to estimate $\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}$ for the SysSim planets with calculated TDVs. Finally, we use the $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}| > 3 \ \sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}$ criterion to determine whether a planet qualifies as having a detectable TDV signal.
\subsection{Summary of the full process}
\label{sec: summary of the full process}
We synthesize the preceding series of steps and calculate TDVs for simulated planet populations in both the two-Rayleigh model and maximum AMD model. We consider a set of 100 physical/observed catalog pairs for each model with the parameters of the statistical models sampled according to their posterior distributions (see \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}, \citealt{2021AJ....161...16H}). The physical catalogs contain orbital elements (inclinations, longitudes of ascending node, etc.) referenced to the sky plane. We transform these orbital elements to be referenced to the invariable plane using equations \ref{eq: omega_sky and omega relationship} and \ref{eq: sin(alpha)}.
The observed catalogs are first used to specify which planets to perform the TDV calculation for based on whether their TDVs are measurable (Section \ref{sec: TDV measurability}). The physical catalogs determine the details of a given planet's TDV calculation (Section \ref{sec: TDV calculation}). Finally, transit properties from the observed catalog then help quantify whether the resulting TDV signal is detectable (Section \ref{sec: TDV slope detectability}). Each physical/observed catalog pair yields a subset of the planet population with detectable TDV slopes.
\section{Results}
\label{sec: results}
\subsection{Number of planets with detected TDVs}
\label{sec: number of planets with detected TDVs}
The most direct way of comparatively evaluating the two-Rayleigh model and maximum AMD model is to examine each model's total number of simulated planets with detected TDV signals. This quantity can then be compared to the number of observed planets with detected TDV signals, thereby determining which model is a better fit in terms of TDV statistics. In this section, we consider this simple tabulation; in the next section, we look deeper into the properties of the simulated and observed planets with detected TDVs.
Figure \ref{fig: histograms with number of detected TDVs} presents the tabulation of TDV detections. We show histograms of the number of planets with detected TDVs for 100 physical and observed catalog pairs of each model. (That is, each physical/observed catalog pair corresponds to a single number of planets with detected TDVs.) The medians of the distributions and confidence intervals representing the 16th and 84th percentiles are shown in the figure; these values are $43^{+18}_{-13}$ planets with detected TDVs for the two-Rayleigh model and $22^{+10}_{-6}$ for the maximum AMD model. The observed number of planets with detected TDVs according to Kepler observations (16; see Section \ref{sec: observations}) is also shown.
The maximum AMD model yields a quantity of planets with detected TDVs that is in agreement with the observations. In contrast, the two-Rayleigh model yields too many planets with detected TDVs to be compatible with the observations. Thus, the TDV statistics support the maximum AMD model (and its associated mutual inclination distribution) over the two-Rayleigh model. We will revisit this conclusion in the Discussion (Section \ref{sec: discussion}).
\begin{figure}
\epsscale{1.2}
\plotone{Number_of_detected_TDVs_histograms_3sigma.pdf}
\caption{Distributions of the number of planets with detected TDVs in the two-Rayleigh model (blue histogram) and the maximum AMD model (green histogram). The histograms correspond to the 100 sets of physical and observed catalog pairs for each model (see Section \ref{sec: summary of the full process}). The medians of the distributions and confidence intervals representing the 16th and 84th percentiles are listed above the corresponding histograms. The number of planets with detected TDVs in the Kepler observations is shown with the dashed vertical line. The maximum AMD model agrees very well with the observed number of planets with detected TDVs, while the two-Rayleigh model produces too many detected TDVs.}
\label{fig: histograms with number of detected TDVs}
\end{figure}
\begin{figure*}
\epsscale{1.1}
\plotone{Two_Rayleigh_model_number_of_detected_TDVs_vs_sigma_i_scatterplots_3sigma.pdf}
\caption{Scatter plots of the correlations between the number of planets with detected TDVs in the two-Rayleigh model and the parameters of the model. The $x$-axes of the left and middle panels are the Rayleigh distribution scale parameters of the low and high inclination components, $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{low}}$ and $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}$. The $x$-axis of the right panel is the fraction of systems belonging to the high inclination population, $f_{\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}}$. To guide the eye, we include linear regression lines for each scatter plot. The horizontal dashed line corresponds to the number of planets with detected TDVs in the Kepler observations.}
\label{fig: number of detected TDVs vs sigma_i scatterplots}
\end{figure*}
Although the majority of outcomes for the two-Rayleigh model lead to more simulated systems with detectable TDVs than are observed, the low end of the distribution ($\sim 20$ planets with detected TDVs) is close to the observed number. This suggests that it may be difficult to rule out the two-Rayleigh model entirely. It is helpful to better understand these cases within the context of the broader distribution. To do this, we can study the relationships between the number of planets with detected TDVs and the parameters of the low and high inclination population components. These include the fraction of systems belonging to the high inclination population, $f_{\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}}$, and the Rayleigh distribution scale parameters of the low and high components, $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{low}}$ and $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}$.
\begin{figure}
\epsscale{1.1}
\plotone{AMD_model_TDV_slope_vs_inc.pdf}
\plotone{Two_Rayleigh_model_TDV_slope_vs_inc.pdf}
\caption{Absolute value of the TDV slope, $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$, as a function of the inclination of the planet's orbit relative to the invariable plane. The gray points indicate all TDV calculations (without regard to TDV detection) within a single observed catalog for the maximum AMD model (top panel) and two-Rayleigh model (bottom panel). The yellow points represent the mean and standard deviation of the gray points within log-uniform bins of $i$. The dashed black lines represent $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}| \sim \sin(2i)$ with a normalization such that the curve approximately passes through the data. While $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|\sim\sin(2i)$ is a good rough approximation, there is significant scatter due to the other factors within the $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ calculation (planet masses, semi-major axes, etc.). }
\label{fig: TDV slope vs inc}
\end{figure}
Figure \ref{fig: number of detected TDVs vs sigma_i scatterplots} shows scatter plots of these relationships. We plot the number of planets with detected TDVs versus $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{low}}$, $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}$, and $f_{\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}}$. The number of planets with detected TDVs is positively (albeit weakly) correlated with $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{low}}$ and $f_{\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}}$, while it is negatively correlated with $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}$. These relationships can be understood by noting that $|\dot{\Omega}| \sim \cos{i}$, such that $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|\sim\sin{i}\cos{i} \sim \sin{2i}$ (equations \ref{eq: dTdur/dt}, \ref{eq: db/dt}, and \ref{eq: Lagrange's planetary equations}; {see also Figure \ref{fig: TDV slope vs inc}}). When $i$ is small, $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}| \sim i$, creating the positive correlation between the number of planets with detected TDVs and $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{low}}$ (left panel of Figure \ref{fig: number of detected TDVs vs sigma_i scatterplots}). Since $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|\sim\sin{2i}$ peaks at $45^{\circ}$, the high inclination component of the two-Rayleigh model has larger average TDV signals, which results in the positive trend between the number of TDV detections and $f_{\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}}$ (right panel of Figure \ref{fig: number of detected TDVs vs sigma_i scatterplots}). However, we might also expect that the number of TDV detections would peak at $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}} \sim 45^{\circ}$ rather than show a negative correlation (middle panel of Figure \ref{fig: number of detected TDVs vs sigma_i scatterplots}). The negative correlation arises because $f_{\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}}$ is inversely correlated with $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}$, such that a low $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}$ is associated with many more systems in the high inclination population, and these systems show more detectable TDVs on average.
The middle panel of Figure \ref{fig: number of detected TDVs vs sigma_i scatterplots} shows that in most cases where the number of planets with detected TDVs is on the low end of the distribution ($\lesssim 20$), the scale parameter of the high inclination population is near its maximum, $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}} \gtrsim 50^{\circ}$. However, systems with extreme mutual inclinations of the level $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}} \gtrsim 50^{\circ}$ are disfavored from a physical standpoint, since the orbits are sometimes retrograde and are more likely to be unstable due to secular planet-planet interactions, as noted by \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}. The trend shown in the middle panel of Figure \ref{fig: number of detected TDVs vs sigma_i scatterplots} thus further disfavors the two-Rayleigh model; although the trend itself is weak, it is clear that obtaining a plausible number of TDV detections generally requires less plausible values of $\sigma_{i,\mathrm{high}}$ for stability.
\subsection{Properties of planets with detected TDVs}
\label{sec: properties of planets with detected TDVs}
\begin{figure}
\epsscale{1.1}
\plotone{Two_Rayleigh_model_TDV_slope_histograms_3sigma_v2.pdf}
\plotone{AMD_model_TDV_slope_histograms_3sigma_v2.pdf}
\caption{Distributions of the absolute value of the TDV slope, $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$, for planets with detected TDVs. The top and bottom panels show the results for the two-Rayleigh model and the maximum AMD model, respectively. The solid thick line represents the median of the individual histograms for each of the 100 sets of physical and observed catalog pairs. The shaded regions represent the intervals between the 16th and 84th percentiles. The histogram of $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ values for the observations is shown with the dashed thick gray line. }
\label{fig: TDV slope histograms}
\end{figure}
\begin{figure}
\epsscale{1.25}
\plotone{Two_Rayleigh_model_TDV_slope_vs_P_and_depth_scatterplot_3sigma.pdf}
\plotone{AMD_model_TDV_slope_vs_P_and_depth_scatterplot_3sigma.pdf}
\caption{Absolute value of the TDV slope, $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$, as a function of $P$ (left column) and $\log_{10}(\mathrm{depth})$ (right column) of the planets with detected TDVs. The small gray points correspond to the simulated planets with detected TDVs across all 100 sets of physical and observed catalog pairs from the two-Rayleigh model (top row) and maximum AMD model (bottom row). The purple points indicate the observed Kepler planets with detected TDVs. }
\label{fig: TDV slope vs P and depth}
\end{figure}
In addition to the simple tabulation of the number of planets with detected TDVs, it is also valuable to compare the specific properties of the simulated planets to the corresponding observed planets with detected TDVs. Relevant properties include the magnitude of the TDV slopes, as well the planets' orbital periods and transit depths. Figures \ref{fig: TDV slope histograms} and \ref{fig: TDV slope vs P and depth} (as well as Table \ref{tab: average properties comparison}, discussed later) show these properties.
Figure \ref{fig: TDV slope histograms} presents histograms of the absolute value of the TDV slope, $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$, for planets with detected TDVs. The range and typical values of $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ for both the two-Rayleigh model and the maximum AMD model agree well with the observed planets. In all three distributions (observations and two models), the majority of values of $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ fall in the range of $1 - 10$ min/yr. The simulations have a slightly greater proportion of detections with $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}| \lesssim 1$ min/yr.
The two-Rayleigh model is inconsistent in terms of the observed count, but this is just a restatement of the finding from Figure \ref{fig: histograms with number of detected TDVs} that the two-Rayleigh model produces too many detected TDVs.
Figure \ref{fig: TDV slope vs P and depth} shows additional dimensions of this comparison between simulated and observed planets. We plot $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ versus $P$ and $\log_{10}(\mathrm{depth})$ for planets with detected TDVs in the maximum AMD model, the two-Rayleigh model, and the Kepler observations. The left column illustrates that $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ is positively correlated with $P$ for both the simulated and observed planets.
It is illuminating to discuss the physical origins of this positive correlation. In the limit of circular orbits, the expression for $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$ (equation \ref{eq: dTdur/dt}) becomes
\begin{equation}
\label{eq: circular dTdur/dt}
\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}} \approx -P\left(\frac{b}{\pi\sqrt{1-b^2}}\right)\dot{\Omega}\sin{i}\cos{\beta}\sin{\Omega}.
\end{equation}
If the typical period ratio between adjacent planets, $P_{i+1}/P_i$, is independent of $P$, then $|\dot{\Omega}|\propto P^{-1}$, and the dependence of $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ on $P$ vanishes.\footnote{The $|\dot{\Omega}|\propto P^{-1}$ dependence can be seen by combining equations \ref{eq: Lagrange's planetary equations} and \ref{eq: R and R'} or by examining the Laplace-Lagrange secular solution of a two-planet system \citep{1999ssd..book.....M}.} Indeed, $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ is completely uncorrelated with $P$ in the full distribution (that includes the TDV slopes that are too small to be detected). However, $\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}$ is positively correlated with $P$ (due to the decreasing number of transits with increasing $P$), and since TDV detection requires $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}| > 3 \sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}$ (Section \ref{sec: observations}), this conspires to yield a positive correlation between $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ and $P$. That is, for large $P$, only the steepest values of $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ are detectable.
\cite{2021MNRAS.tmp.1312S} also identified a positive slope between $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ and $P$ within the Kepler detected TDVs, and they additionally pointed to a paucity of large $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ detections at small $P$, the latter of which might not be explained by the $\sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}$ bias. The simulated planets at small $P$ in Figure \ref{fig: TDV slope vs P and depth} show a slight deficiency of large $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ detections ($\sim10$ min/yr) compared to more moderate slopes ($\sim1-3$ min/yr), which is due to the fact that moderate values are more common in the underlying distribution. However, it is not clear that the deficiency in the simulations matches that of the data. Altogether, the simulations reproduce the correlation, which is the dominant feature of the data, but they do not clearly reproduce the paucity of large $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ at small $P$.
The $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ versus $P$ distribution also shows that the simulated planets are more concentrated at smaller orbital periods in the range ${P=3-10}$ days than the observed planets, which are mostly at ${P>10}$ days. In particular, the observations have more planets with detected TDVs with ${P=100-300}$ days than represented in the simulations. This may be small-number statistics of the data, or it could be because SysSim is less well-calibrated in the ${P=100-300}$ day range due to fewer Kepler planet detections there. In addition, the observed systems may contain perturbing companion planets with ${P>300}$ days, but the simulated systems do not. We will return to this in Section \ref{sec: model assumptions}.
The right column of Figure \ref{fig: TDV slope vs P and depth} shows that $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ versus $\log_{10}(\mathrm{depth})$ exhibits a weak negative correlation, which is due to the fact that a larger transit SNR can allow for the detection of a smaller TDV slope. The typical transit depths of the simulated planets are in general agreement with the observed planets, although the observed planets appear to have a larger spread in $\log_{10}(\mathrm{depth})$ than the simulated planets. Altogether, these results indicate that the agreement between the simulated and observed planets with detected TDVs is satisfactory.
\setlength{\extrarowheight}{4pt}
\setlength\tabcolsep{10pt}
\begin{table*}
\centering
\caption{\textbf{Average Properties of Planets with Detected TDVs.} Means of the distributions of several planetary and system properties of planets with detected TDVs. The left column corresponds to the observed KOIs listed in Table \ref{tab: KOIs with TDVs}. We report the mean and standard error of the mean. The middle and right columns correspond to the SysSim simulated planets in the maximum AMD model and two-Rayleigh model, respectively. We calculate the mean values associated with each of the 100 catalogs and report the medians and 16th and 84th percentiles of the distributions of means. Here $N_{\mathrm{obs}}$ is the observed transit multiplicity of the system, and $N_{\mathrm{phys}}$ is the intrinsic multiplicity of the system. The quantity $\sigma_i$ is the standard deviation of the system's orbital inclinations with respect to the invariable plane, including non-detected planets. $N_{\mathrm{phys}}$ and $\sigma_i$ are unknown for the observed systems. The final row is the ratio of the number of TDV detections that are in single-transiting systems compared to multiple-transiting systems. }
\begin{tabular}{c | c c c }
\hline
\hline
& \multicolumn{3}{c}{\underline{Average values}} \\
& Observations & Maximum AMD model & Two-Rayleigh model \\
\hline
Planet properties & & \\
$R_p$ [$R_{\oplus}$] & $5.7 \pm 0.6$ & $4.7 ^{+ 0.4 }_{- 0.4 }$ & $4.8 ^{+ 0.3 }_{- 0.4 }$ \\
$M_p$ [$M_{\oplus}$] & -- & $13.1 ^{+ 10.3 }_{- 3.4 }$ & $18.1 ^{+ 7.1 }_{- 6.1 }$ \\
depth [ppm] & $4327 \pm 929$ & $2975 ^{+ 672 }_{- 531 }$ & $3096 ^{+ 420 }_{- 437 }$ \\
$P$ [days] & $65.2 \pm 17.8$ & $21.8 ^{+ 7.7 }_{- 5.9 }$ & $22.5 ^{+ 3.7 }_{- 4.6 }$ \\
$T_{\mathrm{dur}}$ [hr] & $6.1 \pm 0.8$ & $3.0 ^{+ 0.3 }_{- 0.2 }$ & $3.2 ^{+ 0.2 }_{- 0.3 }$ \\
$|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ [min/yr] & $6.4 \pm 1.4$ & $3.6 ^{+ 0.8 }_{- 0.9 }$ & $4.2 ^{+ 0.9 }_{- 0.8 }$ \\ \\
\hline
System properties & & \\
$N_{\mathrm{obs}}$ & $2.0 \pm 0.3$ & $1.8 ^{+ 0.2 }_{- 0.2 }$ & $1.6 ^{+ 0.3 }_{- 0.2 }$ \\
$N_{\mathrm{phys}}$ & -- & $3.8 ^{+ 0.5 }_{- 0.4 }$ & $5.6 ^{+ 0.4 }_{- 0.4 }$ \\
$\sigma_{i}$ [deg] & -- & $1.3 ^{+ 0.3 }_{- 0.2 }$ & $16.7 ^{+ 6.5 }_{- 6.2 }$ \\ \\
\hline
Catalog properties & & \\
single-to-multi ratio & 0.78 & $0.91 ^{+ 0.5 }_{- 0.3 }$ & $1.77 ^{+ 0.8 }_{- 0.6 }$ \\
\end{tabular}
\label{tab: average properties comparison}
\end{table*}
Table \ref{tab: average properties comparison} shows a quantitative comparison of the average properties of the planets with detected TDVs (and their systems) between the SysSim simulated planets and the observed KOIs. The table summarizes several of the key takeaways from Figures \ref{fig: TDV slope histograms} and \ref{fig: TDV slope vs P and depth}, including the general agreement of $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ between simulations and observations and the larger average $P$ for the observed planets. In addition, we note that the observed transit multiplicity of systems with detected TDVs shows good agreement, with $N_{\mathrm{obs}} = 1.8 ^{+ 0.2 }_{- 0.2 }$ for the simulated systems in the maximum AMD model versus $2.0 \pm 0.3$ for the observed systems. The average intrinsic multiplicity of the maximum AMD model simulated systems hosting planets with detected TDVs is $N_{\mathrm{phys}} = 3.8 ^{+ 0.5 }_{- 0.4 }$ (but clearly unknown for the observed systems). This is marginally smaller than the average of the full population of simulated systems with observed planets, which is $N_{\mathrm{phys}} \sim 4.5$.\footnote{This quantity is larger than the average number of planets per planetary system found by \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}, $3.12^{+0.36}_{-0.28}$, because it is conditional upon the system having at least one \textit{observed} planet.} The maximum AMD model simulated systems hosting planets with detected TDVs have an average standard deviation of the inclinations (measured with respect to the invariable plane) equal to $\sigma_i = 1.3 ^{+ 0.3 }_{- 0.2 }$ deg, marginally larger than the average of the full population, $\sigma_i \sim 1$ deg.
\newpage
\subsection{Sensitivity of results to model assumptions}
\label{sec: model assumptions}
In this section, we investigate the robustness of our results with respect to variations in the models, specifically the planet radius and period ranges, and \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}'s assumption that systems are at the critical AMD. To begin, we note that SysSim considers planet radii in the range $0.5 \ R_{\oplus} < R_p < 10 \ R_{\oplus}$, but it is best constrained for $R_p < 4 \ R_{\oplus}$ due to the large number of detections of sub-Neptune-sized planets. We can repeat our analysis by changing the $R_p$ upper limit from $10 \ R_{\oplus}$ to $4 \ R_{\oplus}$. This reduces the number of observed Kepler TDV detections from 16 (Section \ref{sec: observations}) to 6. Figure \ref{fig: histograms with number of detected TDVs for 4 Rearth cut} (top panel) displays the distributions of the number of simulated planets with detected TDVs, as in Figure \ref{fig: histograms with number of detected TDVs}. We observe a similar or perhaps even better agreement between the maximum AMD model and the observed number of planets with detected TDVs. Meanwhile, the two-Rayleigh model again produces too many detected TDVs. Our results are therefore robust with respect to the choice of the upper limit on $R_p$.
\begin{figure}
\epsscale{1.1}
\plotone{Number_of_detected_TDVs_histograms_3sigma_4Rearth_cut.pdf}
\plotone{Number_of_detected_TDVs_histograms_3sigma_4Rearth_100day_cut.pdf}
\caption{Same as Figure \ref{fig: histograms with number of detected TDVs}, except with the planet radius upper limit equal to $4 \ R_{\oplus}$ rather than $10 \ R_{\oplus}$ (both panels) and with the orbital period upper limit equal to 100 days rather than 300 days (bottom panel).}
\label{fig: histograms with number of detected TDVs for 4 Rearth cut}
\end{figure}
In addition to the finite planet radius range, SysSim also uses a finite range in orbital periods, ${3 \ \mathrm{days} < P < 300 \ \mathrm{days}}$. This leads to an important limitation of our analysis, in that our population of simulated TDV detections is missing cases that would have arisen from planetary perturbers with $P < 3$ days or $P > 300$ days. This may be responsible for the underabundance of simulated TDV detections with $P \sim 100-300$ days relative to the observations (Figure \ref{fig: TDV slope vs P and depth}). Accounting for this underprediction of planets with detected TDVs in the simulated population would tend to further disfavor the two-Rayleigh model, although it may also lead to a tension with the maximum AMD model if the difference is significant. The best way to address this would be to generalize the \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H} model to include planets with orbital periods beyond the current cutoffs and then use SysSim to generate new simulated catalogs for comparison. Generalizing the \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H} model and performing parameter estimation on the new model's parameters is beyond the scope of this study.
However, we can repeat the analysis on a restricted sample of TDV detections with $P < 100$ days (bottom panel of Figure \ref{fig: histograms with number of detected TDVs for 4 Rearth cut}), which is less affected by the $300$ day cutoff. We find that the overall conclusions are unchanged.
Another simulation feature to consider is the assumption of the maximum AMD model that all multi-planet systems are at the AMD-stability limit, with ${\mathrm{AMD} = \mathrm{AMD_{crit}}}$. \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H} tested variations of their model in which ${\mathrm{AMD} = f_{\mathrm{crit}}\times\mathrm{AMD_{crit}}}$, where $f_{\mathrm{crit}}$ is some factor in the range $[0,2]$. They found that values between 0.4 and 2 are all acceptable and that the fit did not significantly improve with the extra $f_{\mathrm{crit}}$ parameter. However, it is possible that this factor could affect the TDV distribution more strongly than the other Kepler observables. We find this to be unlikely. As shown by Figure 7 in \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}, when allowing for $f_{\mathrm{crit}} \ne 1$, the mutual inclination distribution maintains the same shape and shifts by less than a factor of two. Specifically, the median mutual inclination shifts to $\sim 0.82^\circ$ ($1.64^\circ$) for $f_{\rm crit} = 0.5$ (2). Meanwhile, $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ varies by up to three orders-of-magnitude among the planets with detected TDVs (with $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ ranging from $\sim 0.1 - 100$ min/yr; see Figure \ref{fig: TDV slope vs P and depth}). Including the non-detected TDVs, there is an even larger range, with $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$ as low as $\sim10^{-4}$ min/yr. Given the dynamic range in $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|$, the small changes in inclinations cannot significantly change the distribution of TDVs.
\section{Discussion}
\label{sec: discussion}
\subsection{Small mutual inclinations for the Kepler planets}
\label{sec: small mutual inclinations for the Kepler planets}
The TDV statistics of the Kepler population agree very well with the simulated planet population constructed by the maximum AMD model, whereas the two-Rayleigh model produces too many detected TDVs (Figures \ref{fig: histograms with number of detected TDVs} and \ref{fig: histograms with number of detected TDVs for 4 Rearth cut}). Given that the primary difference between these two models is the mutual inclination distribution, which TDVs are sensitive to (e.g. Figures \ref{fig: number of detected TDVs vs sigma_i scatterplots} and \ref{fig: TDV slope vs inc}), we conclude that the TDV statistics support the mutual inclination distribution of the maximum AMD model. We emphasize that the TDV statistics are not capable of assessing \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}'s assumption that systems are at the critical AMD. However, they appear consistent with the implications of that assumption.
As discussed in Section \ref{sec: Maximum AMD model} (and originally in Section 3.3 of \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}), the maximum AMD model yields median mutual inclinations, $\tilde{\mu}_{i,n}$, of systems with $n= 2, 3, ..., 10$ planets that are well modeled by a power-law of the form
$\tilde{\mu}_{i,n} = 1.10^{\circ}(n/5)^{-1.73}$. This equation evaluates to $5.4^{\circ}$, $2.7^{\circ}$, and $1.6^{\circ}$ for two-, three- and four-planet systems, respectively. These inclinations are quite modest relative to the high mutual inclinations that have previously been invoked to explain the Kepler dichotomy (e.g. \citealt{2018AJ....156...24M}, \citetalias{2019MNRAS.490.4575H}). Of course, systems with higher mutual inclinations do exist (e.g. Kepler-108, \citealt{2017AJ....153...45M}), but according to our results they do not make up a large fraction of the population.
A final point to emphasize about \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}'s mutual inclination distribution is that it is non-dichotomous; it does not bifurcate the population into ``dynamically cool'' and ``dynamically hot'' systems. The fact that the TDV statistics support this model is therefore evidence for a continuum of architectures rather than a dichotomy.
As a caveat, we note that there are many possible combinations in the true multiplicity/inclination distribution that are not encapsulated in the two models we tested. Reality is likely more complicated than ``there is'' or ``there is not'' a dichotomy. However, we can say that (1) the continuous maximum AMD model is consistent with the data, and (2) replacing any of the model's low inclination systems with high inclination configurations would tend to increase the number of TDV detections, thus leading to eventual inconsistency with the small number of observed detections. The two models tested here serve as a basis of comparison for future, more complex models. For now, we focus on the implications of the favored maximum AMD model.
The mutual inclinations of the maximum AMD model are consistent with previous works that constrained the distribution by supplementing the Kepler transit statistics with additional observations. The most similar result is that of \cite{2018ApJ...860..101Z} (see also \citealt{2020AJ....159..164Y}), who used Kepler TTV statistics as their additional constraint. \cite{2018ApJ...860..101Z}'s model assumed a power-law of the mutual inclination dispersion with the intrinsic multiplicity, $\sigma_{i,n} = \sigma_{i,5}(n/5)^{\alpha}$, and identified best-fit parameters equal to $\alpha = -3.5$ and $\sigma_{i,5} = 0.8^{\circ}$. This is steeper than that found by \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H} but a similar result indicating relatively small inclinations that depend on the intrinsic multiplicity.
Rather than TTVs, \cite{2012AJ....143...94T} and \cite{2012A&A...541A.139F} used RV survey data as their extra observational constraint. By combining statistical information from Kepler and RV surveys, they found evidence that suggested that the mean mutual inclinations are $\lesssim5^{\circ}$.
Detailed analyses of RVs of individual multiple planet systems with strong gravitational interactions also provide evidence for small mutual inclinations \citep{2002ApJ...579..455L, 2014MNRAS.441..442N, 2016MNRAS.455.2484N, 2018AJ....155..106M}.
Finally, the inference of small mutual inclinations of the Kepler planets is also consistent with population-level constraints on Kepler stellar obliquities. Studies using photometric variability observations \citep{2015ApJ...801....3M} and $v\sin i$ measurements \citep{2017AJ....154..270W, 2021AJ....161...68L} showed that stellar spin-orbit misalignments are small for Kepler planets orbiting cool stars ($T_{\mathrm{eff}} \lesssim 6250$ K). All of these results are broadly consistent with \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}'s maximum AMD model. Thus, we are seeing agreement between Kepler transit statistics, TTVs, RVs, stellar obliquities, and TDVs, indicating a collection of robust evidence that the vast majority of inner planetary systems around Sun-like stars have small mutual inclinations.
\subsection{Physical origins of the mutual inclinations}
\label{sec: physical origins}
The predominantly small (but non-zero) inclinations, $i\lesssim5^{\circ}-10^{\circ}$, must have been excited through one or more physical processes. While several dynamical mechanisms have been proposed, it is still unclear which dominate. Here we will review the relevant theories and discuss which are favored by the observational evidence for small inclinations.
\subsubsection{Excitation during late-stage planet assembly}
\label{sec: primordial excitation}
To begin, we note that the requisite mutual inclinations can probably be acquired primordially during the planet formation epoch. Many studies have used $N$-body simulations to study the formation of close-in, compact systems in their final assembly stage, during which planetary embryos undergo mutual scatterings and collisional growth. Some of these models have considered \textit{in situ} formation in a gas-poor or gas-empty environment, typically starting with a dense planetesimal disk with various disk masses and radial profiles \citep[e.g.][]{2013ApJ...775...53H, 2016ApJ...822...54D, 2016ApJ...832...34M, 2017AJ....154...27M, 2020MNRAS.491.5595P}. In contrast to \textit{in situ} formation models, migration models consider formation of protoplanets beyond $\sim 1$ AU. Disk-planet interactions lead to inward migration and the formation of long chains of short-period protoplanets in mean-motion resonances. Once the gas disk disperses, these compact resonant chains can become dynamically unstable and collide, promoting further planetary growth \citep[e.g.][]{2007ApJ...654.1110T, 2014A&A...569A..56C, 2014MNRAS.445..479C, 2017MNRAS.470.1750I, 2018ApJ...866..104C, 2019arXiv190208772I, 2019MNRAS.486.3874C}.
In both the \textit{in situ} and migration scenarios, gravitational scattering of planetary embryos leads to dynamical excitation of the mutual inclinations and eccentricities of the final planetary system, potentially allowing for the production of systems that agree with the Kepler multiplicity distribution.\footnote{This dynamical excitation must occur among planetary embryos during the formation epoch. Dynamical instabilities among fully-formed Kepler multi-planet systems are unlikely to produce sufficient excitation \citep[e.g.][]{2012ApJ...758...39J}.} These models are generally capable of producing inclinations in the range of $\sim1^{\circ}-10^{\circ}$ \citep[e.g.][]{2013ApJ...775...53H, 2016ApJ...832...34M, 2019arXiv190208772I, 2019MNRAS.486.3874C, 2020MNRAS.491.5595P}, in agreement with the mutual inclinations of the maximum AMD model from \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}. For instance, the migration simulations of \cite{2019arXiv190208772I} find an excess of single-transiting systems that matches the Kepler multiplicity distribution and arises primarily from systems of $2-3$ planets with inclinations between $\sim4^{\circ}-10^{\circ}$. In contrast to \cite{2019arXiv190208772I}, some other variations of late-stage planet formation simulations do not reproduce the large number of single-transiting systems, at least not with a uniform underlying model \citep[e.g.][]{2013ApJ...775...53H, 2020MNRAS.491.5595P}. However, this appears equally if not more influenced by the intrinsic multiplicities of the simulated systems being too high (average of $\sim5$ planets per system rather than $\sim3$ as found by \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}) than the inclinations being too low, and the multiplicities are strongly influenced by the initial conditions of the simulations. Finally, in addition to the proper range of inclinations, these models also naturally produce an inverse correlation between inclination (and eccentricity) dispersion and intrinsic multiplicity, as shown in the analysis of \cite{2018ApJ...866..104C}'s simulations by \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}.
\subsubsection{External perturbations: stellar oblateness and distant giant planets}
\label{sec: external perturbations}
While dynamical instabilities during the late-stage planet assembly process appear capable of delivering the required level of mutual inclination excitation, this is not guaranteed, and the primordial formation conditions are poorly-constrained. This has led some to postulate the importance of external gravitational perturbations from the star or other planets in the system as sources of dynamical excitation. These external perturbations additionally offer solutions to systems with very high ($\gtrsim20^{\circ}$) mutual inclinations \citep[e.g.][]{2017AJ....153...45M} and/or misaligned stellar obliquities \citep[e.g.][]{2021MNRAS.502.2893K}, which are observed in a handful of systems and cannot be attributed to primordial collisional excitation among the inner Kepler planets.
One source of external perturbation is the quadrupolar gravitational potential of a tilted host star, which is particularly strong when the star is young and rapidly rotating \citep{2016ApJ...830....5S}. Shortly after disk dispersal, a tilted star can drive differential nodal precession of the inner planetary orbits that leads to mutual inclinations comparable to the magnitude of the stellar obliquity. The excitation also depends on the coupling of the Kepler planets compared to the stellar forcing. To match the $\lesssim10^{\circ}$ mutual inclinations, spin-orbit misalignments of this magnitude must be widespread during the disk-hosting stage. There are numerous pathways for generating star-disk tilts \citep[e.g.][]{2012Natur.491..418B, 2014MNRAS.440.3532L, 2014ApJ...790...42S, 2014ApJ...797L..29S, 2018MNRAS.478..835Z}. Moreover, the $6^{\circ}$ obliquity of the Sun is of the requisite magnitude, and recent data suggests that spin-orbit misalignments in systems of small Kepler planets are more common than previously thought, particularly among hot stars \citep{2021AJ....161...68L}. The oblateness-driven inclination excitation theory is also consistent with the relatively large (up to $\sim10^{\circ}$) observed inclinations of ultra-short period planets \citep{2018ApJ...864L..38D, 2020ApJ...890L..31L}, provided their inward migration occurs early enough \citep{2020ApJ...905...71M}. The biggest unknown with the theory is that it requires rapid disk dispersal timescales, such that a primordial star-disk misalignment can naturally become a spin-orbit misalignment \citep{2020AJ....160..105S}.
In addition to the host star, another gravitational source that can drive differential precession is a distant ($\gtrsim1$~AU) giant planet (or ``cold Jupiter'') on an inclined orbit \citep{2017AJ....153...42L, 2017MNRAS.467.1531H, 2017MNRAS.468..549B, 2018MNRAS.478..197P}. The giant can similarly generate mutual inclinations among the inner planets up to roughly the magnitude of the giant's orbital tilt, depending on the coupling of the inner planets to one another relative to the perturbations from the giant. The inclination excitation can, however, become much larger than the giant's inclination when there exists a secular resonance between a nodal precession frequency and a system eigenfrequency \citep{2018AJ....155..139G, 2018MNRAS.478..197P}. In addition to dynamically quiet secular interactions, an outer system containing \textit{multiple} giant planets can undergo a violent epoch of planet-planet scattering and collisions that reduce the multiplicity and/or dynamically heat the inner system \citep[e.g.][]{2017MNRAS.464.1709G, 2017MNRAS.468.3000M, 2020MNRAS.491.5595P}. Recently, \cite{2020AJ....159...38M} showed that cold Jupiters have $\sim10^{\circ}$ mutual inclinations relative to inner transiting systems, with lower inclinations relative to the multis than singles. This is consistent with a scenario in which inclined giants perturb inner systems. However, it is equally consistent with other mechanisms that generate inclinations among the inner planets and produce an inclination with respect to the cold Jupiter as a by-product.
Cumulatively, the data suggest that distant giants likely play a role in dynamically heating some subset of inner planetary systems, with prime examples including HAT-P-11 \citep{2018AJ....155..255Y}, $\pi$ Mensae \citep[e.g.][]{2020MNRAS.497.2096X, 2021MNRAS.502.2893K}, and WASP-107 \citep[e.g.][]{2021AJ....161...70P}, all of which have short-period Neptunes (or sub-Neptunes) with large stellar obliquities and eccentric cold Jupiters. However, as far as generating the Kepler dichotomy through dynamical excitation of inner systems, distant giant planets are unlikely to be the dominant solution. There are several reasons for this. First, roughly three quarters of Kepler planetary systems of super-Earths/sub-Neptunes have just a single transiting planet, while roughly one third of these systems contain distant giant planets \citep{2018AJ....156...92Z, 2019AJ....157...52B}. Provided the distant giant fraction is similar around transit singles and transit multis \citep{2020AJ....159...38M}, the statistical constraints make it difficult to generate a sufficient number of transit singles through giant planet perturbations. Moreover, it is unlikely that the cold Jupiter occurrence is significantly higher among the transit singles compared to the transit multis, given that the stellar metallicity distributions are indistinguishable \citep{2018AJ....155..134M}.
A second consideration is that, even when one or more cold Jupiters are present, they do not always (in the absence of secular resonances) lead to enhanced mutual inclinations in inner systems, since the inner planet orbits are often tightly coupled \citep[e.g.][]{2017MNRAS.464.1709G, 2017MNRAS.468.3000M}. However, when mutual inclinations do result, they are generally larger than the $i \lesssim 5^{\circ}-10^{\circ}$ scale required by \citetalias{2020AJ....160..276H}, particularly when there are scattering interactions in the outer system \citep{2017MNRAS.468.3000M}. Finally, the gravitational perturbations from distant giants are often overpowered by stellar oblateness soon after disk dispersal \citep{2020AJ....160..105S}, such that a planetary system initially dominated by the star can evade giant-induced inclination excitation by adiabatically realigning to the giant's orbital plane during stellar spin-down.
\section{Conclusion}
The distribution of inclinations in multiple-planet systems encodes fundamental clues about planet formation. Unfortunately, it is inherently difficult to infer from radial velocity and transit observations. In particular, the observed transiting multiplicity distribution is strongly affected by the underlying mutual inclination distribution, but it also depends on the intrinsic multiplicity distribution, yielding a near degeneracy that makes inferences of inclinations difficult.
In this work, we used Transit Duration Variations (TDVs) of the Kepler planet population to break the near degeneracy and constrain the mutual inclination distribution of close-in, multi-planet systems. TDVs often arise when a transiting planet's transit chord drifts due to orbital precession induced by torques from perturbing planets (Figure \ref{fig: geometric diagram}). The signal is sensitive to the mutual orbital inclinations and can yield detectable drifts on the order of $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}} \sim 1-10$ min/yr. Several dozen Kepler planets exhibit TDV drift signals (Table \ref{tab: KOIs with TDVs}; Figure \ref{fig: Kepler-9 TDVs} for an example). Our work is the first to exploit these detections statistically to characterize the mutual inclination distribution.
We compared the observed TDV detections of Kepler planets to expectations from simulated planet populations subject to different assumptions about the mutual inclination distribution. These simulated planetary systems were drawn from two population models built using the ``SysSim'' empirically-calibrated forward modeling framework: (1) the ``two-Rayleigh model'' \citep{2019MNRAS.490.4575H}, which assumes a dichotomous mutual inclination distribution with low ($\sigma_{i, \mathrm{low}} \sim 1^{\circ} – 2^{\circ}$) and high ($\sigma_{i, \mathrm{high}} \sim 30^{\circ} – 65^{\circ}$) inclination components, and (2) the ``maximum AMD model'' \citep{2020AJ....160..276H}, in which the mutual inclination distribution is broad, continuous, and multiplicity-dependent with small inclinations on the scale of a few degrees. (See Figure \ref{fig: i vs e scatterplots} for a comparison of the two models.) To analyze the simulated planet population, we considered both analytic and $N$-body calculations of $\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}$, along with a simulated TDV detection pipeline to identify which planets would have TDVs that are both measurable (requiring transits with sufficiently large signal-to-noise) and detectable (requiring a significant TDV slope, $|\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}|> 3 \ \sigma_{\dot{T}_{\mathrm{dur}}}$).
Our main result is shown in Figure \ref{fig: histograms with number of detected TDVs}, where the key diagnostic is the number of planets with detected TDVs. The maximum AMD model yields a quantity ($22^{+10}_{-6}$) that is in good agreement with the observed number from Kepler (16 after cuts have been applied). The two-Rayleigh model, by contrast, consistently overpredicts the number of planets with detected TDVs ($43^{+18}_{-13}$). This is because it has too many high inclination systems, which generally produce larger TDV signals (Figure \ref{fig: TDV slope vs inc}). These results are robust with respect to model assumptions, such as the upper limit of $R_p$. When restricting to planets with $R_p < 4 \ R_{\oplus}$ (rather than $R_p < 10 \ R_{\oplus}$), there are 6 observed Kepler planets with detected TDVs, compared to $8^{+4}_{-3}$ with the maximum AMD model and $16^{+7}_{-5}$ with the two-Rayleigh model (Figure \ref{fig: histograms with number of detected TDVs for 4 Rearth cut}).
Given these results, our key takeaway is that the TDV statistics support a continuous distribution of relatively low mutual inclinations ($i \lesssim 5^{\circ} – 10^{\circ}$) rather than a dichotomous distribution with many high inclination systems. These results are consistent with \cite{2018ApJ...860..101Z}, who considered TTV statistics rather than TDVs. Moreover, small inclinations are also supported by studies that combined Kepler and RV survey statistics \citep{2012AJ....143...94T, 2012A&A...541A.139F}. Cumulatively, this work is further evidence that the apparent excess of single-transiting systems relative to expectations from the multis, an observation known as the ``Kepler dichotomy'', does not actually provide evidence for a dichotomy in the underlying architectures \citep{2020AJ....160..276H}. Rather, the observations are naturally explained by and more consistent with a ``Kepler continuum'' of intrinsic multiplicities and low mutual inclinations.
Even with predominantly small (few-degree) mutual inclinations, there must have been one or more physical processes that disrupted these close-in systems from perfect coplanarity. Primordial excitation during the planet assembly phase is perhaps the most favored mechanism for producing a non-dichotomous, multiplicity-dependent distribution of low mutual inclinations, although the optimal disk surface densities, gas damping timescales, and planetary embryo properties are still uncertain. Stellar oblateness can also drive small mutual inclinations if $\sim5^{\circ}-10^{\circ}$ spin-orbit misalignments (like the $6^{\circ}$ solar obliquity) are widespread and disk-dispersal timescales are rapid. Both of these are observable properties that will become better understood over time. Distant giant planets are almost certainly responsible for dynamical heating of a subset of inner planetary systems, but they are probably not the dominant origin of the transit-reducing mutual inclinations. Regardless, the results in this paper can be exploited in future work to constrain the prevalence of these various mechanisms.
Statistical characterization of TDV signals will improve in the future as observational time baselines lengthen. In particular, the PLATO Mission \citep{2014ExA....38..249R} will enable the detection of many more Kepler planet TDVs when it revisits the Kepler field. Moreover, some planets may be seen to transit into or out of view \citep{2018A&A...618A..41F}, as has already been observed in a handful of cases \citep{2019AJ....158..133H, 2020AJ....160..195J}. Modeling this expanded set of TDV observations will allow an even more detailed characterization of the mutual inclination distribution.
In summary, TDVs provide a window into the three-dimensional properties of planetary systems, which are otherwise difficult to probe. This is another axis with which to study our Solar System in the context of exoplanetary systems, and, in this case, it appears that the near-coplanarity of the Solar System is indeed the rule.
\section{Acknowledgements}
We thank Tsevi Mazeh and Dimitri Veras for comments and questions that improved the paper. We also thank the anonymous referee for their insightful and helpful report. S.C.M. was supported by NASA through the NASA Hubble Fellowship grant \#HST-HF2-51465 awarded by the Space Telescope Science Institute, which is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., for NASA, under contract NAS5-26555.
M.Y.H. acknowledges the support of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), funding reference number PGSD3 - 516712 - 2018.
This work was supported by a grant from the Simons Foundation/SFARI (675601, E.B.F.).
E.B.F. acknowledges the support of the Ambrose Monell Foundation and the Institute for Advanced Study.
M.Y.H. and E.B.F. acknowledge support from the Penn State Eberly College of Science and Department of Astronomy \& Astrophysics, the Center for Exoplanets and Habitable Worlds, and the Center for Astrostatistics.
\newpage
| , and $\dot{e}$.
Within the following derivation, there are three distinct planes to keep in mind: (1) the orbital plane, which is perpendicular to the planet's orbital angular momentum vector; (2) the invariable plane, which is perpendicular to the system's total angular momentum vector; and (3) the sky plane, which is perpendicular to the line-of-sight. Specifically, we define the invariable plane to be $xy$, with the $x$-axis the intersection of the invariable plane and the sky plane. The planet's orbital plane has an inclination, $i$, with respect to the invariable plane, and the line of nodes of the orbit forms an angle $\Omega$ with the $x$-axis. Note that here we will assume $i$ is constant. This is strictly only valid for a two-planet system, but it is a good approximation when considering TDVs over a baseline as short as the $\sim4$ year Kepler mission, which is much shorter than the secular timescales over which $i$ varies. For simplicity, we will also assume $R_p \ll R_{\star}$, a good approximation for the sub-Neptune-sized planets we are focusing on here. It is straightforward to generalize the treatment without this assumption \citep{2002ApJ...564.1019M}.
For $a\gg R_\star$, a planet's transit duration is given by
\begin{equation}
T_{\mathrm{dur}} = \frac{2 R_{\star} \sqrt{1-b^2}}{v_{\mathrm{mid}}},
\label{eq: Tdur}
\end{equation}
where $R_{\star}$ is the stellar radius, $b$ is the dimensionless impact parameter, and $v_{\mathrm{mid}}$ is the sky-projected orbital velocity at mid-transit, given by
\begin{equation}
v_{\mathrm{mid}} = \frac{n a(1+e\sin\omega_{\mathrm{sky}})}{\sqrt{1-e^2}}.
\label{eq: vmid}
\end{equation}
Here, $n = 2\pi/P$ is the mean-motion, $e$ is the orbital eccentricity, and $\omega_{\mathrm{sky}}$ is the argument of periapse measured with respect to the sky plane. The argument $\omega_{\mathrm{sky}}$ is related to the corresponding invariable plane angle $\omega$ via the expression \citep{2020AJ....160..195J}
\begin{equation}
\tan(\omega_{\mathrm{sky}} - \omega) = \frac{\sin{\Omega}\cos{\beta}}{\cos{\Omega}\ | 595 |
Vol. 9, Issue No. 39, 28 Sep, 1974
<|fim_middle|> Bombay Slum
Then, at 49, while he was operating, and had been in the surgery contin- uously for 67 hours, a shell burst nearby. His scalpel cut his hand slightly, and after a few days he realised he was hit by Septicemea. With no drugs, it was a matter of a few days, he knew, before he would die. He wrote his farewell letter to General Nieh. Then he passed away. A battlefront cry now became, "Down with invaders! Remember Or Bethune. Long live free China. Remember 0r Bethune". As he lay dying, his colleagues had said, "Not in all China. No comrades, not in all the world will there be enough tears." "Bethune was a man who achieved painful consciousness of his weaknesses, but instead of succumbing to them he reached greatness in vanquishing them. Thus, he turned...the revolutionary for whom life was comradeship with the people, a few handfuls of millet per day, and surgery performed in the midst of bloody and now famous battles. He found his final, indestructible strength in his vast dream of remaking the world." The book needs no recommendation. But the question of "taking medicine to the people" needs vastly more than recommendation. Is there a relevance in the Bethune story for us in the medical colleges and the profession? We have debates on TV on the 'brain drain' of doctors to the West, even as those who stay behind look upon their profession as a 'moneyspinner', stick to the cities, and live splendidly on the steadily declining health of the community. Doctors are not primarily dealers' but 'professionals' who trade in their expertise and therefore go only where there is monetary demand and charge what the market will bear! Be- thune's story would question the very bases of such practice.
Read more about Political Mobilisation and Ethnicity among Adi-Dravidas in a Bombay Slum | Owen M Lynch
Caste in India
Political Mobilisation and Ethnicity among Adi-Dravidas in a | 25 |
Jim Harris, Bruce Belcher and Jim Staunton were three of 19 people among the 2011-12 Distinguished Service and Hall of Fame Awardees from the CIF Southern Section.
Harris, who died last October, was named to the Hall of Fame for his 33-year tenure as coach of the boys' basketball program at Ocean View. Belcher and Staunton both received the Distinguished Service award. Belcher spent 36 years at Edison and retired as athletic director in 2010. Staunton, a former principal at Huntington Beach High, retired as CIF Southern Section commissioner in July, 20<|fim_middle|> is accepting registration for boys ages 7 to 13. Practices start July 23. Online registration is at http://www.hbjaaf.com.
Club H Volleyball has begun instruction in its inaugural summer clinics in July and August at Golden West College. Three session 1 dates remain: Sunday, July 22, 29. Session 2 dates are: Aug. 5, 12, 19, 26.
The cost is $100 per session and $175 for both sessions. Instruction for players under 14 is from 4 and 6 p.m. Instruction for players 15 and older is from 6 to 8 p.m.
For registration information, email info@clubhvolleyball.com or call (714) 655-9204. | 11.
The awardees will be honored at a presentation luncheon Oct. 25.
The Firecrackers-Davis, a 12-and-under girls' travel softball team based in Huntington Beach, took first place in its division July 1 at the 54-team Colorado Sparklers Juniors Tournament. The Firecrackers, coached by Eric Davis, went undefeated at the event and outscored their opponents, 74-7. They capped their tourney run with a 5-1 victory over So Cal Breakers.
The Firecrackers are: Nicole Siess, Delaney Hull, Kennedy Hira, Amanda Vitalich, Ivy Davis, Allisha Martinez, Lindsi Dennis, Madeline Domingo, Penelope Russ, Carly Feckley, Taylor Livingston, Riley Wester, Niki Calderon, Head Coach Eric Davis, and assistant coaches Marc Domingo and Robert Martinez.
The Roundabout Entertainment World Outdoor Racquetball Championships starts Thursday at Marina Community Park, 15871 Graham St., Huntington Beach. The tournament, which runs daily through Sunday, includes competition in 30 adult and junior divisions.
More than 300 competitors are expected for the championships, including Rocky Carson of Ladera Ranch, the No. 1-ranked men's outdoor player in the world, and Janel Tisinger, the top-ranked female outdoor player in the world.
For more information, visit http://www.worldoutdoorracquetball.net.
The Huntington Beach High Youth Baseball Camp opens Monday at Huntington Beach High. The camp runs from 9:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. daily through July 19 and is open to youth ages 9 to 14. The cost is $115 per camper. Instruction will be given by the Huntington Beach High baseball varsity coaching staff.
For more information, call Huntington Beach baseball coach Benji Medure at (951) 764-9411, or email benji172001@yahoo.com.
The 13th annual Edison Basketball Summer Youth Camp starts July 23 at the Edison High gym. The camp is for youth ages 8 to 13 and runs from 1 to 4 p.m. daily through July 27. The cost is $120 per camper and includes a complimentary basketball.
For more information, call (949) 378-4416.
The Huntington Beach Junior All-American Football | 520 |
The Grey Lady Music Lounge, Sunday 9th<|fim_middle|> banter and light hearted style make for a wholly enjoyable performance. They started writing their own music the moment they joined forces and have honed their collective crafts for over four years, which has resulted in a distinctly striking and attractive acoustic sound. The pair's influences are wide ranging: soul, funk and jazz through folk, blues and indie pop. The duet recorded their first four-track EP in Southampton last summer (which is on sale today), and is looking to spend some more time in the studio in the coming months. Still writing and developing their act, they have high hopes for the future and are always looking for opportunities to perform and gain esteem in the musical world. Along with original material, they perform an endless list of covers, similarly spanning in variety – from old blues classics to current top ten hits, always reworked slightly to add something new and deliver an increasingly recognisable BFLF punch.
The Paul Dunton Ensemble (acoustic trio set)
Singer-songwriter, Paul Dunton leads his own unique cross-over orchestra providing an atmospheric fusion of alternative and pop with a classical twist. Paul & his Orchestra take influences from varying modern day artists such as Pink Floyd, Elbow, ELO, Turin Brakes, Massive Attack, Damien Rice and contemporary composers such as Samuel Barber, Ludovico Einaudi, John Barry and Hans Zimmerman. The Orchestra performs Paul's own compositions and a varied selection of uniquely arranged standards from a wide range of artists. The line-up of 8 violins, 4 cellos, guitar, flute, bass and percussion accompanies Paul on vocals and piano, joined by his lead vocalists, Charlotte Andrew and Poppy Raine. Paul and his Orchestra regularly perform at concerts, festivals and private events throughout the UK and internationally, including headlining the Theatrium Wilhelmstraße Festival in Wiesbaden, Germany and an 8 state tour of the USA which culminated in a spectacular roof-top performance on top of the New York Strand Hotel. Increased attention and success led to the orchestra being featured on BBC Radio 2 by Joan Armatrading with interviews and airplay of one of Paul's songs, 'Don't Forget'. This led to Paul supporting Joan Armatrading on five occasions during her recent UK tours. | December 2012
See all scheduled events at The Grey Lady Music Lounge.
Headline Act: Son Of Kirk
Son of Kirk is a meeting of hearts and minds. A constantly evolving musical force driven by four uniquely creative individuals, who build on a foundation of inspired song-writing and strong melodic and lyrical interplay.
Interweaving violin, cello and syncopated guitar lines, combine with dance and Afro beat informed percussive drum patterns and elements of improvisation. Four part harmonies create overlapping vocal lines, inspired by tribal and folk traditions. Expect to be taken on multiple rhythmic twists and turns, by songs that circle and hover, unveil and reveal.
The members of Son of Kirk grew up in varying backgrounds around the world, from Australian cults, to the wilds of West Africa, through American suburbia, to the industrial Midlands and the lush, green beauty of The Garden of England, ultimately coming together on the Tunbridge Wells music scene.
The band are currently working on new songs to be released as a series of E.P.s with accompanying films. The first of these 'Utopia Shake' is available to view on Facebook. Songs are available at iTunes
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The Ackerleys
It is a year now since Cyrano's Joe Ackerley teamed up with his sister Alice to form 'The Ackerleys' as a side line - turned major project! Already they have a fast-growing repertoire of folk/pop tunes, some light and uplifting, some moody and soulful, but all featuring close harmony, strong chord structure and catchy melody. Joe employs his prodigious song writing skills and his own rich baritone to complement and showcase Alice's striking voice. Joe's roots are in rock music as is well known to many of on the TW music scene, his deep seated influences an unusual mix of Pearl Jam/ Radiohead/ Elbow/Crowded House/Jeff Buckley. His sister Alice, just turned 17, provides a more contemporary vibe – Laura Marling, The Staves, Florence and the Machine, Emmy the Great, Marina & the Diamonds. The result is delightfully different - but judge for yourself. The dynamic duo has now added lead guitar and drums in the form of Steve McCormack, and Matt Wilson.
Big Fish, Little Fish
BigFishLittleFish formed in 2008 and, having swiftly moved in on the Tunbridge Wells music scene when they were awarded first place in a local song writing competition, have been making a name for themselves in the area ever since, playing anything from local weddings to music lounges, and from pubs to open-air gigs in Barcelona. The band comprises of Eden Fish (guitar, piano and vocals) and Ollie Bream McIntosh (lead vocals) and their buoyant enthusiasm and polished confidence combined with infamous | 580 |
Growth, Sales & Marketing
The startup that sparked a $50 million investment battle between eBay and Amazon
It's rare for a three-year-old venture to be the subject of a $50 million investment race between global giants eBay and Amazon. Rarer still for that start-up to emerge from India. So how has Snapdeal done it?
According to TechCrunch, Snapdeal, which was founded in Delhi in February 2010, has raised $50 million from a host of investors, headed by eBay.
The cash raise follows a $12 million funding boost in January 2011 and a $40 million investment in September 2011. The business has now raised $102 million in its first three years.
Snapdeal is an online marketplace that offers products across a variety of categories, including electronics, clothing, footwear, books and restaurants.
With 20 million unique users each month, the attraction to eBay, which wants to increase its presence in emerging economies such as India, was clear. Fellow online giant Amazon<|fim_middle|>oeuvre its larger counterparts.
Amit Khanna, who heads the product division, told Kalaari Capital: "What I like the most is the speed at which we execute or implement anything."
"Whatever you think, you start it small and then you execute in a bigger platform. Most of the companies are not able to validate if their idea will work. Here we experiment at a small level and implement it on a larger scale. That's the advantage you have if you are at Snapdeal." | was reportedly snubbed in favour of eBay's investment deal.
So how has Snapdeal's CEO and co-founder Kunal Bahl built a start-up that has got the world's leading online players beating a path to his door? Here are three decent reasons:
eBay recently revealed it expects 12% of its sales to come from major emerging economies – the so-called BRIC countries – by 2015. In an overall eCommerce market that's set to hit $300 billion by then, that's a substantial slice of all global transactions.
By positioning itself as 'India's favourite marketplace', Snapdeal was always going to be a prime target for investors.
Australia's eCommerce growth is more modest, but is set to hit $37 billion by next year. Indeed, figures released last year show that growth in online sales is starting to pick up again following a recent lull.
With more Australian consumers turning to the internet for their purchases – as the likes of Harvey Norman and David Jones will attest to – there is plenty of potential for new online players to get significant backing.
He wasn't afraid to scrap his original idea
Bahl initially wanted to start an online movie ticket booking system and acquired the domain name moviebooking.com.
Realising there was little margin in this business, he changed tack to offering restaurant deal vouchers in a tearable booklet form.
A further change saw Bahl offer deals via redeemable plastic cards before he moved the whole operation online.
Initially offering daily deals, Bahl decided to become a pure products seller in 2011, citing consumer preferences for each move.
The lesson is clear – if you have tested out your initial idea and it comes up short, don't be afraid to revamp it. Bahl went through at least half a dozen changes before he struck gold with Snapdeal.
Speed is everything
Bahl says that Snapdeal's ability to "move very, very fast" is a key advantage over its competitors.
The company has grown rapidly in terms of workforce, prompting Bahl to hire someone whose sole job is to oversee company culture and ensure the smooth integration of newcomers.
This expansion can lead to growing pains, but the upside is that Snapdeal has remained nimble and able to outman | 457 |
This $70 mini camera gives expensive competitors a run for their money.
Wi-Fi security cameras for your home can provide peace of mind when you're traveling for long periods of time or just at work<|fim_middle|> they would give me more peace of mind if I ever saw an intruder in my apartment. | each day. But they can get expensive quickly: most devices cost around $200 per camera and require subscription fees for long-term monitoring.
The Ezviz Mini wants to lighten the burden of outfitting your home with one or more Wi-Fi cameras. For just $70, the Ezviz records up to 720p video, takes screenshots periodically, and alerts you if it detects motion. It has many of the features you can find in a Nest Cam, Canary, or Netatmo Welcome device, but with a much cheaper price tag. Of course, you get what you pay for. The Ezviz doesn't come without caveats, but the newcomer security cam manages to stuff a lot of useful features into its tiny frame.
I love small things because small things are adorable. The Ezviz Mini is a small, adorable camera. Weighing less than four ounces and standing a mere 3.5 inches tall, the Mini is constructed much like the Nest Cam, with a sturdy base and a neck that can bend backward and forward and swivel from side to side. Its square-shaped head has one bulbous eye of a camera lens, and next to it is the IR sensor used for night vision. The indicator light below the sensor flashes steady blue when connected, and on the left side of the device is a slot for the microSD card and a reset button.
I wish the setup process was as simple as the hardware itself. First, you first have to make an account in the Ezviz app, which will send you an authorization code via e-mail or text. Once you're logged in, you can add your camera by scanning the QR code found on the back of the device or inputting the serial number manually. I'm glad the serial number option was available because when the app accessed my camera, it would not focus on the QR code at all, leaving me furiously tapping the small square on the screen to no avail.
Once the camera is recognized and you put in your network password, the device will connect to the Wi-Fi network that your mobile device is on. When the connection is established, you'll be asked to put in the device verification code found on the back of the camera. Overall, it's a much more tedious setup process compared to the plug-in-and-connect installations of competitors like the Nest Cam.
The Ezviz Mini is a super-small, $70 security camera.
Next to a vase, the Ezviz Mini is dwarfed.
The IR sensor helps improve night vision video.
The camera lens shoots up to 720p video.
On the side lies the reset button and the slot for the microSD card.
The neck of the camera swivels 360 degrees so you can get the best viewing angle.
One reason that the Ezviz is less expensive than other home security cameras is that it only shoots video of up to 720p resolution. However, you can choose the quality level you want via the app, which gives you "basic," "standard," and "high resolution" options. I could definitely see the difference in sharpness between the three levels: fine lines and details in the basic feed were blurry and nearly nonexistent, while the standard setting made them slightly more defined.
High-res was obviously the best, rendering the outlines and details of my home decor sharply and even making the lighting in my apartment appear brighter. Night vision was decent to watch from my iPhone, but the footage was rendered very pixelated when I saved a video clip and viewed it on my laptop.
Despite its cheaper price tag, the Ezviz has most of the crucial features you'd find in a more expensive Wi-Fi camera. It detects movement around your home and will send alerts if you've turned on the alarm notification setting in the app. It won't automatically know when you've left your home like other security cameras do, but you can put the camera on an alert schedule for certain times of the day.
I chose this option rather than opting to turn the alarm on at all times because the Ezviz will detect every bit of movement in your home. Since I work from home, I didn't want to be bombarded with notifications every time I got up from my table to sit on my couch. I did appreciate how sensitive the camera was, though, since when the Nest Cam detects motion or sound, it will alert you only once every 30 minutes or so. I walked in front of the Ezviz four times within 10 minutes and got an alert on my iPhone each time.
The Ezviz doesn't detect sound within its alerts, but all recorded clips and live video streams have sound. Impressively, the livestream lag is only about one second. Every time the camera detects movement, it will save a clip of that disturbance on its 16GB microSD card and leave the alert in your Messages folder in the app. Most of my clips were about two minutes long, and when I walked in front of the camera multiple times within a short period, some footage overlapped.
You also have the option of recording video or taking a screenshot while watching the livestream, just in case you happen to be observing when something interesting happens. The video is saved locally, and while the camera comes with a 16GB card, it can support up to a 64GB card—more storage capacity than the Netatmo Welcome. However, you can't just remove the microSD card and view the files on your computer. According to Ezviz, the microSD card acts as a host for your videos, so when you want to watch them, the card trasmits the playback data to your device through the Ezviz app. This is where encryption comes in—the card encrypts all your videos when you watch them on your smartphone, so the data is secure as the camera's card broadcasts the files to your device. Ezviz says the microSD card can hold about 44 hours of video at once, before the earliest videos get automatically recorded over by new footage.
And that's pretty much all the camera does—watch your home, sense motion, and record clips of it. The Ezviz doesn't have facial recognition like Netatmo's Welcome, it doesn't have a smart home protocol like the Nest Cam, and it doesn't have an eardrum-crushing alarm to scare off intruders like the Canary camera. You can connect up to four Ezviz cameras and monitor them all at the same time from the app, and doing so will certainly cost less than buying additional units of any of the more expensive competition.
With its lack of bells and whistles, Ezviz is more of a surveillance camera than a security device. I wish I could put two of the Canary's best features—the loud siren and the storing of local authorities' phone numbers—into the Ezviz, since | 1,394 |
Several months<|fim_middle|> to tear through that poly mailer and see the marvel inside. Joshua really outdid himself there.
What really struck me was how interconnected my "virtual" community had become. I use quotation marks there because so many real relationships have grown from this community over the past year that I'm convinced it's more than just a heap of 1's and 0's dashing around in cyberspace.
I'm sure Joshua feels like a proud Papa after such a successful launch , but each time I saw a friend's post pop up with their newly opened M&T I feel at least like a proud uncle or cousin. This was a labor of love, and I feel so fortunate to have played a part in it.
So enjoy them, savor them, share them and let us know your reactions with the hashtag #mtmagintheshop. The conversation is just beginning.
Really looking forward to the arrival of my copy at the local Lee Valley.
I picked up my copy at Lee Valley today and can't wait to dive into it. At first glance, it's a stunning magazine. I've been a long time subscriber to Fretboard Journal, which for me raised the bar of what a magazine can be. M&T is on par with FJ at first glance.
That is a high compliment indeed. Thank you, and enjoy!
Jim, we should be extending the thank you to you, Joshua and everyone who put together such an incredible publication!
Spectacular, you've all set the bar very high. Much meat between these covers here, I don't know where you guys take it from here. This is a great time in the publishing world of hand tool woodworking. My nightstand is getting stacked with such a beautiful selection of new reads. | ago when Joshua Klein first contacted me about joining the editorial team for Mortise and Tenon Magazine I was excited, but I could never have imagined the thrill of opening the magazine and seeing my name on the mast head. I also did not anticipate the feeling of gratitude that would be in my heart every time I looked at Instagram this week and saw my feed filling up with others who were just as excited as me | 82 |
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