question stringlengths 14 1.69M | answer stringlengths 1 40.5k | meat_tokens int64 1 8.18k |
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Title: Div<|fim_middle|> Philidelphia, PA, Population Association of America Annual Meeting, March-April 2005. | orce and Marriage: Does the Marriage Wage Premium Matter?
Divorce and Marriage: Does the Marriage Wage Premium Matter?
There is a sizeable literature on the wage premium of married men. Nearly all of the studies in this area attempt to determine why this premium exists and, recently, why it has been falling. There is also a growing economic literature on marriage and divorce, which complements the large sociological, anthropological and demographic literatures on the same subject. This paper combines these two research areas by attempting to determine whether an individual's probability of marrying (if single) or divorcing (if married) is affected by the magnitude of his estimated premium. Micro data from the NLSY79 is used to follow more than 1500 white men over a twenty year period. Results are forthcoming.
Schmidt, Amy. "Divorce and Marriage: Does the Marriage Wage Premium Matter?" Presented: | 184 |
In search of the miraculous universal music
Alex Ross has a noteworthy post on The Rest is Noise detailing a collaboration between New York psychedelic club The Electric Circus and the pioneering early music ensemble New York Pro Musica<|fim_middle|> play of Daniel for $1.99 at amazon... | seen above. A post On An Overgrown Path last year profiled the largely-forgotten founder of Pro Musica Noah Greenberg, who died tragically early in 1966. In the following year his early music ensemble played in an Electric Circus gig at Carnegie Hall, performing "beneath a gigantic filmed projection of a fish opening and closing its mouth" – Norman Perryman please note - and later with Circus Maximus, the club's house rock band, in a rendition of Machaut's Douce Dame Jolie.
That collaboration between early music and popular culture is more than a historic curiosity. In Conference of the Birds: the Story of Peter Brook in Africa John Heilpern explains how:
Disenchanted with a weak and elitist status quo, [Brook] believes it's possible to discover the miraculous: a universal theatre. If so the élitist barriers would fall. Theatre would at last become a truly popular art: open to everyone. For a piece of theatre would make total sense, regardless of language or class, wherever in the world it played.
Classical music also has a weak and elitist status quo coupled with aspirations to universality, but it has made the mistake of thinking that universality and entertainment are synonymous. Early music, which comes with less baggage than the mainstream repertoire, could just be the miraculous universal music. A psychedelic happening in 1967 may seem an unlikely pointer to the future of classical music. But remember that David Munrow's BBC early music radio series Pied Piper, which ran for five years and 655 programmes in the 1970s, did more to bring classical music to a mass audience than all the current big new ideas put together. Is the future of classical music JSB on LSD?
Also on Facebook and Twitter. Any copyrighted material on these pages is included as "fair use", for the purpose of study, review or critical analysis only, and will be removed at the request of copyright owner(s).
The Wound Dresser said…
Bob,the biography of Greenberg was superb,which I never would have pursued save for the notice in your post. Another thanks for the continuing education
Pliable said…
Thanks TWD, if we spread the word we may see some Noel Greenberg/New York Pro Musica CDs back in the catalogue.
Norman Perryman said…
Bob, thanks to you (and indirectly to Alex Ross), for this treasure trove of memories of those creative years!
downloaded the | 509 |
City Counciltlitadmin2022-12-14T15:21:50-06:00
The City of L<|fim_middle|>ley and a graduate of Robertsdale High School. He is also a lifelong member of the Loxley Church of God.
Loxley City Council Members
Kasey Childress
Richard Lee Wilson
Jeffrey T. Knight
Katharine Q. Breeden
Chris McCall
Melissa Lawrence | oxley is governed by a mayor and five city council members that are elected by the voting population every four years. The Loxley City Council meets at 5:30 p.m. on the second and last Monday of the month at Loxley City Hall. Special Sessions and Emergency Sessions of the city council can also be called by the Mayor at any time.
Official City Council Meetings are held on the second and last Monday of each month. Public presentations are limited, but citizens are welcome to attend and voice their opinions or concerns as the council makes formal decisions relating to all business of the town.
Items for consideration are scheduled through the Loxley Town Clerk. Any citizen wishing to be placed on the agenda should contact the town clerk to make arrangements.
Mayor Richard Teal
Mayor Richard Teal is currently serving his first term as mayor of the City of Loxley. Mayor Teal was officially sworn into office on June 24, 2020, after serving as mayor pro tempore for 4 years. He was the first new mayor in the City of Loxley in more than 30 years, following the passing of longtime mayor Billy Middleton. The council voted unanimously to appoint Teal to finish Middleton's term as mayor.
"I am truly honored for this opportunity to serve the town," Mayor Teal said at the packed special counting meeting. "These are difficult times, but I plan to look to Billy's leadership to move the town forward in a direction that I feel he would have wanted."
A devoted community member, Mayor Teal served with former Mayor Middleton on the Loxley Town Council since 1988. He and fellow council member Katherine Breeden were recently honored by the Alabama League of Municipalities for 30 years of exemplary service.
Mayor Teal is a native and lifelong resident of Lox | 376 |
Introduction to Bayesian Analysis Procedures SAS/STAT 13.2 User's Guide
SAS/STAT 13.2 User's Guide
Introduction to Bayesian
Analysis Procedures
This document is an individual chapter from SAS/STAT® 13.2 User's Guide.
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Introduction to Bayesian Analysis Procedures
Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Background in Bayesian Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Prior Distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bayesian Inference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bayesian Analysis: Advantages and Disadvantages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Assessing Markov Chain Convergence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Summary Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
A Bayesian Reading List . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Textbooks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tutorial and Review Papers on MCMC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
SAS/STAT software provides Bayesian capabilities in six procedures: BCHOICE, FMM, GENMOD, LIFEREG, MCMC, and PHREG. The FMM, GENMOD, LIFEREG, and PHREG procedures provide Bayesian
analysis in addition to the standard frequentist analyses they have always performed. Thus, these procedures
provide convenient access to Bayesian modeling and inference for finite mixture models, generalized linear
models, accelerated life failure models, Cox regression models, and piecewise constant baseline hazard
models (also known as piecewise exponential models). The BCHOICE procedure provides Bayesian analysis
for discrete choice models. The MCMC procedure is a general procedure that fits Bayesian models with
arbitrary priors and likelihood functions.
This chapter provides an overview of Bayesian statistics; describes specific sampling algorithms used in
these four procedures; and discusses posterior inference and convergence diagnostics computations. Sources
that provide in-depth treatment of Bayesian statistics can be found at the end of this chapter, in the section
"A Bayesian Reading List" on page 154. Additional chapters contain syntax, details, and examples for the
individual procedures BCHOICE(see Chapter 27, "The BCHOICE Procedure"), FMM (see Chapter 39, "The
FMM Procedure"), GENMOD (see Chapter 43, "The GENMOD Procedure"), LIFEREG (see Chapter 57,
"The LIFEREG Procedure"), MCMC (see Chapter 61, "The MCMC Procedure"), and PHREG (see Chapter 73,
"The PHREG Procedure").
124 F Chapter 7: Introduction to Bayesian Analysis Procedures
The most frequently used statistical methods are known as frequentist (or classical) methods. These methods
assume that unknown parameters are fixed constants, and they define probability by using limiting relative
frequencies. It follows from these assumptions that probabilities are objective and that you cannot make
probabilistic statements about parameters because they are fixed. Bayesian methods offer an alternative
approach; they treat parameters as random variables and define probability as "degrees of belief" (that is, the
probability of an event is the degree to which you believe the event is true). It follows from these postulates
that probabilities are subjective and that you can make probability statements about parameters. The term
"Bayesian" comes from the prevalent usage of Bayes' theorem, which was named after the Reverend Thomas
Bayes, an eighteenth century Presbyterian minister. Bayes was interested in solving the question of inverse
probability: after observing a collection of events, what is the probability of one event?
Suppose you are interested in estimating from data y D fy1 ; : : : ; yn g by using a statistical model described
by a density p.yj /. Bayesian philosophy states that cannot be determined exactly, and uncertainty about
the parameter is expressed through probability statements and distributions. You can say that follows
a normal distribution with mean 0 and variance 1, if it is believed that this distribution best describes the
uncertainty associated with the parameter. The following steps describe the essential elements of Bayesian
inference:
1. A probability distribution for is formulated as . /, which is known as the prior distribution, or just
the prior. The prior distribution expresses your beliefs (for example, on the mean, the spread, the
skewness, and so forth) about the parameter before you examine the data.
2. Given the observed data y, you choose a statistical model p.yj / to describe the distribution of y given
3. You update your beliefs about by combining information from the prior distribution and the data
through the calculation of the posterior distribution, p. jy/.
The third step is carried out by using Bayes' theorem, which enables you to combine the prior distribution
and the model in the following way:
p. jy/ D
p.; y/
p.yj /. /
p.y/
p.yj /. /d
The quantity
p.y/ D
is the normalizing constant of the posterior distribution. This quantity p.y/ is also the marginal distribution
of y, and it is sometimes called the marginal distribution of the data. The likelihood function of is any
function proportional to p.yj /; that is, L. / / p.yj /. Another way of writing Bayes' theorem is as
Background in Bayesian Statistics F 125
p. jy/ D R
L. /. /
L. /. /d
The marginal distribution p.y/ is an integral. As long as the integral is finite, the particular value of the
integral does not provide any additional information about the posterior distribution. Hence, p. jy/ can be
written up to an arbitrary constant, presented here in proportional form as:
p. jy/ / L. /. /
Simply put, Bayes' theorem tells you how to update existing knowledge with new information. You begin
with a prior belief . /, and after learning information from data y, you change or update your belief about
and obtain p. jy/. These are the essential elements of the Bayesian approach to data analysis.
In theory, Bayesian methods offer simple alternatives to statistical inference—all inferences follow from
the posterior distribution p. jy/. In practice, however, you can obtain the posterior distribution with
straightforward analytical solutions only in the most rudimentary problems. Most Bayesian analyses require
sophisticated computations, including the use of simulation methods. You generate samples from the posterior
distribution and use these samples to estimate the quantities of interest. PROC MCMC uses a self-tuning
Metropolis algorithm (see the section "Metropolis and Metropolis-Hastings Algorithms" on page 132). The
GENMOD, LIFEREG, and PHREG procedures use the Gibbs sampler (see the section "Gibbs Sampler" on
page 133). The BCHOICE and FMM procedure use a combination of Gibbs sampler and latent variable
sampler. An important aspect of any analysis is assessing the convergence of the Markov chains. Inferences
based on nonconverged Markov chains can be both inaccurate and misleading.
Both Bayesian and classical methods have their advantages and disadvantages. From a practical point of
view, your choice of method depends on what you want to accomplish with your data analysis. If you
have prior information (either expert opinion or historical knowledge) that you want to incorporate into
the analysis, then you should consider Bayesian methods. In addition, if you want to communicate your
findings in terms of probability notions that can be more easily understood by nonstatisticians, Bayesian
methods might be appropriate. The Bayesian paradigm can often provide a framework for answering specific
scientific questions that a single point estimate cannot sufficiently address. Alternatively, if you are interested
only in estimating parameters based on the likelihood, then numerical optimization methods, such as the
Newton-Raphson method, can give you very precise estimates and there is no need to use a Bayesian analysis.
For further discussions of the relative advantages and disadvantages of Bayesian analysis, see the section
"Bayesian Analysis: Advantages and Disadvantages" on page 130.
Background in Bayesian Statistics
Prior Distributions
A prior distribution of a parameter is the probability distribution that represents your uncertainty about the
parameter before the current data are examined. Multiplying the prior distribution and the likelihood function
together leads to the posterior distribution of the parameter. You use the posterior distribution to carry out
all inferences. You cannot carry out any Bayesian inference or perform any modeling without using a prior
Objective Priors versus Subjective Priors
Bayesian probability measures the degree of belief that you have in a random event. By this definition,
probability is highly subjective. It follows that all priors are subjective priors. Not everyone agrees with
this notion of subjectivity when it comes to specifying prior distributions. There has long been a desire to
obtain results that are objectively valid. Within the Bayesian paradigm, this can be somewhat achieved by
using prior distributions that are "objective" (that is, that have a minimal impact on the posterior distribution).
Such distributions are called objective or noninformative priors (see the next section). However, while
noninformative priors are very popular in some applications, they are not always easy to construct. See
DeGroot and Schervish (2002, Section 1.2) and Press (2003, Section 2.2) for more information about
interpretations of probability. See Berger (2006) and Goldstein (2006) for discussions about objective
Bayesian versus subjective Bayesian analysis.
Noninformative Priors
Roughly speaking, a prior distribution is noninformative if the prior is "flat" relative to the likelihood function.
Thus, a prior . / is noninformative if it has minimal impact on the posterior distribution of . Other names
for the noninformative prior are vague, diffuse, and flat prior. Many statisticians favor noninformative priors
because they appear to be more objective. However, it is unrealistic to expect that noninformative priors
represent total ignorance about the parameter of interest. In some cases, noninformative priors can lead to
improper posteriors (nonintegrable posterior density). You cannot make inferences with improper posterior
distributions. In addition, noninformative priors are often not invariant under transformation; that is, a prior
might be noninformative in one parameterization but not necessarily noninformative if a transformation is
applied.
See Box and Tiao (1973) for a more formal development of noninformative priors. See Kass and Wasserman
(1996) for techniques for deriving noninformative priors.
Improper Priors
A prior ./ is said to be improper if
./d D 1
For example, a uniform prior distribution on the real line, . / / 1, for 1 < < 1, is an improper
prior. Improper priors are often used in Bayesian inference since they usually yield noninformative priors
and proper posterior distributions. Improper prior distributions can lead to posterior impropriety (improper
posterior distribution). ToRdetermine whether a posterior distribution is proper, you need to make sure that
the normalizing constant p.yj /p. /d is finite for all y. If an improper prior distribution leads to an
improper posterior distribution, inference based on the improper posterior distribution is invalid.
The GENMOD, LIFEREG, and PHREG procedures allow the use of improper priors—that is, the flat prior
on the real line—for regression coefficients. These improper priors do not lead to any improper posterior
distributions in the models that these procedures fit. PROC MCMC allows the use of any prior, as long as the
Prior Distributions F 127
distribution is programmable using DATA step functions. However, the procedure does not verify whether
the posterior distribution is integrable. You must ensure this yourself.
Informative Priors
An informative prior is a prior that is not dominated by the likelihood and that has an impact on the posterior
distribution. If a prior distribution dominates the likelihood, it is clearly an informative prior. These types
of distributions must be specified with care in actual practice. On the other hand, the proper use of prior
distributions illustrates the power of the Bayesian method: information gathered from the previous study, past
experience, or expert opinion can be combined with current information in a natural way. See the "Examples"
sections of the GENMOD and PHREG procedure chapters for instructions about constructing informative
prior distributions.
Conjugate Priors
A prior is said to be a conjugate prior for a family of distributions if the prior and posterior distributions are
from the same family, which means that the form of the posterior has the same distributional form as the prior
distribution. For example, if the likelihood is binomial, y Ï Bin.n; /, a conjugate prior on is the beta
distribution; it follows that the posterior distribution of is also a beta distribution. Other commonly used
conjugate prior/likelihood combinations include the normal/normal, gamma/Poisson, gamma/gamma, and
gamma/beta cases. The development of conjugate priors was partially driven by a desire for computational
convenience—conjugacy provides a practical way to obtain the posterior distributions. The Bayesian
procedures do not use conjugacy in posterior sampling.
Jeffreys' Prior
A very useful prior is Jeffreys' prior (Jeffreys 1961). It satisfies the local uniformity property: a prior that
does not change much over the region in which the likelihood is significant and does not assume large values
outside that range. It is based on the Fisher information matrix. Jeffreys' prior is defined as
./ / jI. /j1=2
where j j denotes the determinant and I. / is the Fisher information matrix based on the likelihood function
p.yj/:
@2 log p.yj /
I./ D
Jeffreys' prior is locally uniform and hence noninformative. It provides an automated scheme for finding a
noninformative prior for any parametric model p.yj /. Another appealing property of Jeffreys' prior is that
it is invariant with respect to one-to-one transformations. The invariance property means that if you have
a locally uniform prior on and . / is a one-to-one function of , then p.. // D . / j 0 . /j 1 is a
locally uniform prior for . /. This invariance principle carries through to multidimensional parameters
as well. While Jeffreys' prior provides a general recipe for obtaining noninformative priors, it has some
shortcomings: the prior is improper for many models, and it can lead to improper posterior in some cases;
and the prior can be cumbersome to use in high dimensions. PROC GENMOD calculates Jeffreys' prior
automatically for any generalized linear model. You can set it as your prior density for the coefficient
parameters, and it does not lead to improper posteriors. You can construct Jeffreys' prior for a variety of
statistical models in the MCMC procedure. See the section "Example 61.4: Logistic Regression Model with
Jeffreys' Prior" on page 4887 in Chapter 61, "The MCMC Procedure," for an example. PROC MCMC does
not guarantee that the corresponding posterior distribution is proper, and you need to exercise extra caution
in this case.
Bayesian Inference
Bayesian inference about is primarily based on the posterior distribution of . There are various ways
in which you can summarize this distribution. For example, you can report your findings through point
estimates. You can also use the posterior distribution to construct hypothesis tests or probability statements.
Point Estimation and Estimation Error
Classical methods often report the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) or the method of moments estimator
(MOME) of a parameter. In contrast, Bayesian approaches often use the posterior mean. The definition of the
posterior mean is given by
E.jy/ D
p.jy/ d
Other commonly used posterior estimators include the posterior median, defined as
W P . medianjy/ D P .median jy/ D
and the posterior mode, defined as the value of that maximizes p. jy/.
The variance of the posterior density (simply referred to as the posterior variance) describes the uncertainty
in the parameter, which is a random variable in the Bayesian paradigm. A Bayesian analysis typically uses
the posterior variance, or the posterior standard deviation, to characterize the dispersion of the parameter. In
multidimensional models, covariance or correlation matrices are used.
If you know the distributional form of the posterior density of interest, you can report the exact posterior
point estimates. When models become too difficult to analyze analytically, you have to use simulation
algorithms, such as the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to obtain posterior estimates (see the
section "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method" on page 131). All of the Bayesian procedures rely on MCMC
to obtain all posterior estimates. Using only a finite number of samples, simulations introduce an additional
level of uncertainty to the accuracy of the estimates. Monte Carlo standard error (MCSE), which is the
standard error of the posterior mean estimate, measures the simulation accuracy. See the section "Standard
Error of the Mean Estimate" on page 151 for more information.
The posterior standard deviation and the MCSE are two completely different concepts: the posterior standard
deviation describes the uncertainty in the parameter, while the MCSE describes only the uncertainty in the
parameter estimate as a result of MCMC simulation. The posterior standard deviation is a function of the
sample size in the data set, and the MCSE is a function of the number of iterations in the simulation.
Bayesian Inference F 129
Suppose you have the following null and alternative hypotheses: H0 is 2 '0 and H1 is 2 'c0 , where
'0 is a subset of the parameter space and 'c0 is its complement. Using the posterior distribution . jy/,
you can compute the posterior probabilities P . 2 '0 jy/ and P . 2 'c0 jy/, or the probabilities that H0 and
H1 are true, respectively. One way to perform a Bayesian hypothesis test is to accept the null hypothesis
if P . 2 '0 jy/ P . 2 'c0 jy/ and vice versa, or to accept the null hypothesis if P . 2 '0 jy/ is greater
than a predefined threshold, such as 0.75, to guard against falsely accepted null distribution.
It is more difficult to carry out a point null hypothesis test in a Bayesian analysis. A point null hypothesis
is a test of H0 W D 0 versus H1 W ¤ 0 . If the prior distribution . / is a continuous density, then the
posterior probability of the null hypothesis being true is 0, and there is no point in carrying out the test. One
alternative is to restate the null to be a small interval hypothesis: 2 '0 D .0 a; 0 C a/, where a is
a very small constant. The Bayesian paradigm can deal with an interval hypothesis more easily. Another
approach is to give a mixture prior distribution to with a positive probability of p0 on 0 and the density
.1 p0 /. / on ¤ 0 . This prior ensures a nonzero posterior probability on 0 , and you can then make
realistic probabilistic comparisons. For more detailed treatment of Bayesian hypothesis testing, see Berger
Interval Estimation
The Bayesian set estimates are called credible sets, which are also known as credible intervals. This is
analogous to the concept of confidence intervals used in classical statistics. Given a posterior distribution
p. jy/, A is a credible set for if
P . 2 Ajy/ D
p. jy/d
For example, you can construct a 95% credible set for by finding an interval, A, over which
A p. jy/
You can construct credible sets that have equal tails. A 100.1 ˛/% equal-tail interval corresponds to the
100.˛=2/ and 100.1 ˛=2/ percentiles of the posterior distribution. Some statisticians prefer this interval
because it is invariant under transformations. Another frequently used Bayesian credible set is called the
highest posterior density (HPD) interval.
A 100.1
˛/% HPD interval is a region that satisfies the following two conditions:
1. The posterior probability of that region is 100.1
˛/%.
2. The minimum density of any point within that region is equal to or larger than the density of any point
outside that region.
The HPD is an interval in which most of the distribution lies. Some statisticians prefer this interval because it
is the smallest interval.
One major distinction between Bayesian and classical sets is their interpretation. The Bayesian probability
reflects a person's subjective beliefs. Following this approach, a statistician can make the claim that is
inside a credible interval with measurable probability. This property is appealing because it enables you to
make a direct probability statement about parameters. Many people find this concept to be a more natural
way of understanding a probability interval, which is also easier to explain to nonstatisticians. A confidence
interval, on the other hand, enables you to make a claim that the interval covers the true parameter. The
interpretation reflects the uncertainty in the sampling procedure; a confidence interval of 100.1 ˛/% asserts
that, in the long run, 100.1 ˛/% of the realized confidence intervals cover the true parameter.
Bayesian Analysis: Advantages and Disadvantages
Bayesian methods and classical methods both have advantages and disadvantages, and there are some
similarities. When the sample size is large, Bayesian inference often provides results for parametric models
that are very similar to the results produced by frequentist methods. Some advantages to using Bayesian
analysis include the following:
• It provides a natural and principled way of combining prior information with data, within a solid
decision theoretical framework. You can incorporate past information about a parameter and form a
prior distribution for future analysis. When new observations become available, the previous posterior
distribution can be used as a prior. All inferences logically follow from Bayes' theorem.
• It provides inferences that are conditional on the data and are exact, without reliance on asymptotic
approximation. Small sample inference proceeds in the same manner as if one had a large sample.
Bayesian analysis also can estimate any functions of parameters directly, without using the "plug-in"
method (a way to estimate functionals by plugging the estimated parameters in the functionals).
• It obeys the likelihood principle. If two distinct sampling designs yield proportional likelihood
functions for , then all inferences about should be identical from these two designs. Classical
inference does not in general obey the likelihood principle.
• It provides interpretable answers, such as "the true parameter has a probability of 0.95 of falling in a
95% credible interval."
• It provides a convenient setting for a wide range of models, such as hierarchical models and missing
data problems. MCMC, along with other numerical methods, makes computations tractable for
virtually all parametric models.
There are also disadvantages to using Bayesian analysis:
• It does not tell you how to select a prior. There is no correct way to choose a prior. Bayesian inferences
require skills to translate subjective prior beliefs into a mathematically formulated prior. If you do not
proceed with caution, you can generate misleading results.
• It can produce posterior distributions that are heavily influenced by the priors. From a practical point
of view, it might sometimes be difficult to convince subject matter experts who do not agree with the
validity of the chosen prior.
• It often comes with a high computational cost, especially in models with a large number of parameters.
In addition, simulations provide slightly different answers unless the same random seed is used. Note
that slight variations in simulation results do not contradict the early claim that Bayesian inferences are
Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method F 131
exact. The posterior distribution of a parameter is exact, given the likelihood function and the priors,
while simulation-based estimates of posterior quantities can vary due to the random number generator
used in the procedures.
For more in-depth treatments of the pros and cons of Bayesian analysis, see Berger (1985, Sections 4.1 and
4.12), Berger and Wolpert (1988), Bernardo and Smith (1994, with a new edition coming out), Carlin and
Louis (2000, Section 1.4), Robert (2001, Chapter 11), and Wasserman (2004, Section 11.9).
The following sections provide detailed information about the Bayesian methods provided in SAS.
Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method
The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is a general simulation method for sampling from posterior
distributions and computing posterior quantities of interest. MCMC methods sample successively from a
target distribution. Each sample depends on the previous one, hence the notion of the Markov chain. A
Markov chain is a sequence of random variables, 1 , 2 , , for which the random variable t depends on
all previous s only through its immediate predecessor t 1 . You can think of a Markov chain applied to
sampling as a mechanism that traverses randomly through a target distribution without having any memory
of where it has been. Where it moves next is entirely dependent on where it is now.
Monte Carlo, as in Monte Carlo integration, is mainly used to approximate an expectation by using the
Markov chain samples. In the simplest version
g./p. /d Š
g. t /
t D1
where g./ is a function of interest and t are samples from p. / on its support S. This approximates
the expected value of g. /. The earliest reference to MCMC simulation occurs in the physics literature.
Metropolis and Ulam (1949) and Metropolis et al. (1953) describe what is known as the Metropolis algorithm
(see the section "Metropolis and Metropolis-Hastings Algorithms" on page 132). The algorithm can be used
to generate sequences of samples from the joint distribution of multiple variables, and it is the foundation of
MCMC. Hastings (1970) generalized their work, resulting in the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Geman
and Geman (1984) analyzed image data by using what is now called Gibbs sampling (see the section "Gibbs
Sampler" on page 133). These MCMC methods first appeared in the mainstream statistical literature in
Tanner and Wong (1987).
The Markov chain method has been quite successful in modern Bayesian computing. Only in the simplest
Bayesian models can you recognize the analytical forms of the posterior distributions and summarize
inferences directly. In moderately complex models, posterior densities are too difficult to work with directly.
With the MCMC method, it is possible to generate samples from an arbitrary posterior density p. jy/ and to
use these samples to approximate expectations of quantities of interest. Several other aspects of the Markov
chain method also contributed to its success. Most importantly, if the simulation algorithm is implemented
correctly, the Markov chain is guaranteed to converge to the target distribution p. jy/ under rather broad
conditions, regardless of where the chain was initialized. In other words, a Markov chain is able to improve
its approximation to the true distribution at each step in the simulation. Furthermore, if the chain is run for a
very long time (often required), you can recover p.jy/ to any precision. Also, the simulation algorithm is
easily extensible to models with a large number of parameters or high complexity, although the "curse of
dimensionality" often causes problems in practice.
Properties of Markov chains are discussed in Feller (1968), Breiman (1968), and Meyn and Tweedie (1993).
Ross (1997) and Karlin and Taylor (1975) give a non-measure-theoretic treatment of stochastic processes,
including Markov chains. For conditions that govern Markov chain convergence and rates of convergence,
see Amit (1991), Applegate, Kannan, and Polson (1990), Chan (1993), Geman and Geman (1984), Liu,
Wong, and Kong (1991a, b), Rosenthal (1991a, b), Tierney (1994), and Schervish and Carlin (1992). Besag
(1974) describes conditions under which a set of conditional distributions gives a unique joint distribution.
Tanner (1993), Gilks, Richardson, and Spiegelhalter (1996), Chen, Shao, and Ibrahim (2000), Liu (2001),
Gelman et al. (2004), Robert and Casella (2004), and Congdon (2001, 2003, 2005) provide both theoretical
and applied treatments of MCMC methods. You can also see the section "A Bayesian Reading List" on
page 154 for a list of books with varying levels of difficulty of treatment of the subject and its application to
Bayesian statistics.
Metropolis and Metropolis-Hastings Algorithms
The Metropolis algorithm is named after its inventor, the American physicist and computer scientist Nicholas
C. Metropolis. The algorithm is simple but practical, and it can be used to obtain random samples from any
arbitrarily complicated target distribution of any dimension that is known up to a normalizing constant.
Suppose you want to obtain T samples from a univariate distribution with probability density function f .jy/.
Suppose t is the tth sample from f. To use the Metropolis algorithm, you need to have an initial value 0
and a symmetric proposal density q. t C1 j t /. For the (t + 1) iteration, the algorithm generates a sample
from q.j/ based on the current sample t , and it makes a decision to either accept or reject the new sample.
If the new sample is accepted, the algorithm repeats itself by starting at the new sample. If the new sample is
rejected, the algorithm starts at the current point and repeats. The algorithm is self-repeating, so it can be
carried out as long as required. In practice, you have to decide the total number of samples needed in advance
and stop the sampler after that many iterations have been completed.
Suppose q.new j t / is a symmetric distribution. The proposal distribution should be an easy distribution from
which to sample, and it must be such that q.new j t / D q. t jnew /, meaning that the likelihood of jumping
to new from t is the same as the likelihood of jumping back to t from new . The most common choice of
the proposal distribution is the normal distribution N . t ; / with a fixed . The Metropolis algorithm can be
summarized as follows:
1. Set t D 0. Choose a starting point 0 . This can be an arbitrary point as long as f . 0 jy/ > 0.
2. Generate a new sample, new , by using the proposal distribution q.j t /.
3. Calculate the following quantity:
f .new jy/
r D min
;1
f . t jy/
4. Sample u from the uniform distribution U .0; 1/.
5. Set t C1 D new if u < r; otherwise set t C1 D t .
6. Set t D t C 1. If t < T , the number of desired samples, return to step 2. Otherwise, stop.
Note that the number of iteration keeps increasing regardless of whether a proposed sample is accepted.
This algorithm defines a chain of random variates whose distribution will converge to the desired distribution
f .jy/, and so from some point forward, the chain of samples is a sample from the distribution of interest. In
Markov chain terminology, this distribution is called the stationary distribution of the chain, and in Bayesian
statistics, it is the posterior distribution of the model parameters. The reason that the Metropolis algorithm
works is beyond the scope of this documentation, but you can find more detailed descriptions and proofs in
many standard textbooks, including Roberts (1996) and Liu (2001). The random-walk Metropolis algorithm
is used in the MCMC procedure.
You are not limited to a symmetric random-walk proposal distribution in establishing a valid sampling
algorithm. A more general form, the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm, was proposed by Hastings (1970).
The MH algorithm uses an asymmetric proposal distribution: q.new j t / ¤ q. t jnew /. The difference in
its implementation comes in calculating the ratio of densities:
f .new jy/q. t jnew /
f . t jy/q.new j t /
Other steps remain the same.
The extension of the Metropolis algorithm to a higher-dimensional is straightforward. Suppose D
.1 ; 2 ; ; k /0 is the parameter vector. To start the Metropolis algorithm, select an initial value for each k
and use a multivariate version of proposal distribution q.j/, such as a multivariate normal distribution, to
select a k-dimensional new parameter. Other steps remain the same as those previously described, and this
Markov chain eventually converges to the target distribution of f .jy/. Chib and Greenberg (1995) provide
a useful tutorial on the algorithm.
Gibbs Sampler
The Gibbs sampler, named by Geman and Geman (1984) after the American physicist Josiah W. Gibbs, is a
special case of the "Metropolis and Metropolis-Hastings Algorithms" on page 132 in which the proposal
distributions exactly match the posterior conditional distributions and proposals are accepted 100% of
the time. Gibbs sampling requires you to decompose the joint posterior distribution into full conditional
distributions for each parameter in the model and then sample from them. The sampler can be efficient when
the parameters are not highly dependent on each other and the full conditional distributions are easy to sample
from. Some researchers favor this algorithm because it does not require an instrumental proposal distribution
as Metropolis methods do. However, while deriving the conditional distributions can be relatively easy, it is
not always possible to find an efficient way to sample from these conditional distributions.
Suppose D .1 ; : : : ; k /0 is the parameter vector, p.yj/ is the likelihood, and ./ is the prior distribution.
The full posterior conditional distribution of .i jj ; i ¤ j; y/ is proportional to the joint posterior density;
that is,
.i jj ; i ¤ j; y/ / p.yj/./
For instance, the one-dimensional conditional distribution of 1 given j D j ; 2 j k, is computed as
.1 jj D j ; 2 j k; y/ D p.yj. D .1 ; 2 ; : : : ; k /0 /. D .1 ; 2 ; : : : ; k /0 /
The Gibbs sampler works as follows:
.0/
1. Set t D 0, and choose an arbitrary initial value of .0/ D f1 ; : : : ; k g.
2. Generate each component of as follows:
.tC1/
from .1 j2 ; : : : ; k ; y/
from .2 j1
from .k j1
• draw 1
.t /
; 3 ; : : : ; k ; y/
• ...
• draw k
; y/
; : : : ; k
The name "Gibbs" was introduced by Geman and Geman (1984). Gelfand et al. (1990) first used Gibbs
sampling to solve problems in Bayesian inference. See Casella and George (1992) for a tutorial on the
sampler. The GENMOD, LIFEREG, and PHREG procedures update parameters using the Gibbs sampler.
Adaptive Rejection Sampling Algorithm
The GENMOD, LIFEREG, and PHREG procedures use the adaptive rejection sampling (ARS) algorithm to
sample parameters sequentially from their univariate full conditional distributions. The ARS algorithm is a
rejection algorithm that was originally proposed by Gilks and Wild (1992). Given a log-concave density (the
log of the density is concave), you can construct an envelope for the density by using linear segments. You
then use the linear segment envelope as a proposal density (it becomes a piecewise exponential density on
the original scale and is easy to generate samplers from) in the rejection sampling.
The log-concavity condition is met in some of the models that are fit by the procedures. For example, the
posterior densities for the regression parameters in the generalized linear models are log-concave under
flat priors. When this condition fails, the ARS algorithm calls for an additional Metropolis-Hastings step
(Gilks, Best, and Tan 1995), and the modified algorithm becomes the adaptive rejection Metropolis sampling
(ARMS) algorithm. The GENMOD, LIFEREG, and PHREG procedures can recognize whether a model is
log-concave and select the appropriate sampler for the problem at hand.
Although samples obtained from the ARMS algorithm often exhibit less dependence with lower autocorrelations, the algorithm could have a high computational cost because it requires repeated evaluations of the
objective function (usually five to seven repetitions) at each iteration for each univariate parameter.1
Implementation the ARMS algorithm in the GENMOD, LIFEREG, and PHREG procedures is based on
code that is provided by Walter R. Gilks, University of Leeds (Gilks 2003). For a detailed description and
explanation of the algorithm, see Gilks and Wild (1992); Gilks, Best, and Tan (1995).
1 The extension to the multivariate ARMS algorithm is possible in theory but problematic in practice because the computational
cost associated with constructing a multidimensional hyperbola envelop is often prohibitive.
Slice Sampler
The slice sampler (Neal 2003), like the ARMS algorithm, is a general algorithm that can be used to sample
parameters from their target distribution. As with the ARMS algorithm, the only requirement of the slice
sampler is the ability to evaluate the objective function (the unnormalized conditional distribution in a Gibbs
step, for example) at a given parameter value. In theory, you can draw a random number from any given
distribution as long as you can first obtain a random number uniformly under the curve of that distribution.
Treat the area under the curve of p. / as a two-dimensional space that is defined by the -axis and the Y-axis,
the latter being the axis for the density function. You draw uniformly in that area, obtain a two-dimensional
vector of .i ; yi /, ignore the yi , and keep the i . The i 's are distributed according to the right density.
To solve the problem of sampling uniformly under the curve, Neal (2003) proposed the idea of slices (hence
the name of the sampler), which can be explained as follows:
1. Start the algorithm at 0 .
2. Calculate the objective function p.0 / and draw a line between y D 0 and y D p.0 /, which defines
a vertical slice. You draw a uniform number, y1 , on this slice, between .0; p.0 //.
3. Draw a horizontal line at y1 and find the two points where the line intercepts with the curve, .L1 ; R1 /.
These two points define a horizontal slice. Draw a uniform number, x1 , on this slice, between .L1 ; R1 /.
4. Repeat steps 2 and 3 many times.
The challenging part of the algorithm is finding the horizontal slice .Li ; Ri / at each iteration. The closed
form expressions of pL1 .yi / and pR1 .yi / are virtually impossible to obtain analytically in most problems.
Neal (2003) proved that although exact solutions would be nice, devising a search algorithm that finds
portions of this horizontal slice is sufficient for the sampler to work. The search algorithm is based on the
rejection method to expand and contract, when needed.
The sampler is implemented as an optional algorithm in the MCM<|fim_middle|>they converge to the target. Similar initial values can be risky because all of the chains can get stuck in a
local maximum; that is something this convergence test cannot detect. If you do not supply initial values for
all the different chains, the procedures generate them for you.
Geweke Diagnostics
The Geweke test (Geweke 1992) compares values in the early part of the Markov chain to those in the latter
part of the chain in order to detect failure of convergence. The statistic is constructed as follows. Two
subsequences of the Markov chain f t g are taken out, with f1t W t D 1; : : : ; n1 g and f2t W t D na ; : : : ; ng,
where 1 < n1 < na < n. Let n2 D n na C 1, and define
and 2 D
n2 t Dn
Let sO1 .0/ and sO2 .0/ denote consistent spectral density estimates at zero frequency (see the subsection
"Spectral Density Estimate at Zero Frequency" on page 145 for estimation details) for the two MCMC chains,
respectively. If the ratios n1 =n and n2 =n are fixed, .n1 C n2 /=n < 1, and the chain is stationary, then the
following statistic converges to a standard normal distribution as n ! 1 :
Zn D q
sO1 .0/
This is a two-sided test, and large absolute z-scores indicate rejection.
Spectral Density Estimate at Zero Frequency
For one sequence of the Markov chain ft g, the relationship between the h-lag covariance sequence of a time
series and the spectral density, f, is
sh D
exp.i!h/f .!/d!
where i indicates that !h is the complex argument. Inverting this Fourier integral,
f .!/ D
sh exp. i!h/ D s0 1 C 2
h cos.!h/
It follows that
f .0/ D 2 1 C 2
which gives an autocorrelation adjusted estimate of the variance. In this equation, 2 is the naive variance
estimate of the sequence ft g and h is the lag h autocorrelation. Due to obvious computational difficulties,
such as calculation of autocorrelation at infinity, you cannot effectively estimate f .0/ by using the preceding
formula. The usual route is to first obtain the periodogram p.!/ of the sequence, and then estimate f .0/ by
smoothing the estimated periodogram. The periodogram is defined to be
!2
!2 3
p.!/ D
t sin.!t / C
t cos.!t / 5
The procedures use the following way to estimate fO.0/ from p (Heidelberger and Welch 1981). In p.!/, let
! D !k D 2k=n and k D 1; : : : ; Πn2 .2 A smooth spectral density in the domain of .0; is obtained by
fitting a gamma model with the log link function, using p.!k / as response and x1 .!k / D 3.4!k =.2/ 1/
as the only regressor. The predicted value fO.0/ is given by
fO.0/ D exp.ˇO0
3ˇO1 /
where ˇO0 and ˇO1 are the estimates of the intercept and slope parameters, respectively.
2 This
is equivalent to the fast Fourier transformation of the original time series t .
Heidelberger and Welch Diagnostics
The Heidelberger and Welch test (Heidelberger and Welch 1981, 1983) consists of two parts: a stationary
portion test and a half-width test. The stationarity test assesses the stationarity of a Markov chain by testing
the hypothesis that the chain comes from a covariance stationary process. The half-width test checks whether
the Markov chain sample size is adequate to estimate the mean values accurately.
Given f t g, set S0 D 0, Sn D ntD1 t , and N D .1=n/ ntD1 t . You can construct the following sequence
with s coordinates on values from n1 ; n2 ; ; 1:
Bn .s/ D .SŒns
ŒnsN /=.np.0//
where Πis the rounding operator, and p.0/
is an estimate of the spectral density at zero frequency that uses
the second half of the sequence (see the section "Spectral Density Estimate at Zero Frequency" on page 145
for estimation details). For large n, Bn converges in distribution to a Brownian bridge (Billingsley 1986). So
you can constructR a test statistic by using Bn . The statistic used in these procedures is the Cramer–von Mises
statistic3 ; that is 0 Bn .s/2 ds D CVM.Bn /. As n ! 1, the statistic converges in distribution to a standard
Cramer–von Mises distribution. The integral 0 Bn .s/2 ds is numerically approximated using Simpson's
rule.
Let yi D Bn .s/2 , where s D 0; n1 ; ; n n 1 ; 1, and i D ns D 0; 1; ; n. If n is even, let m D n=2;
otherwise, let m D .n 1/=2. The Simpson's approximation to the integral is
Bn .s/2 ds 1
Œy0 C 4.y1 C C y2m
C 2.y2 C C y2m
C y2m
Note that Simpson's rule requires an even number of intervals. When n is odd, yn is set to be 0 and the value
does not contribute to the approximation.
This test can be performed repeatedly on the same chain, and it helps you identify a time t when the chain
has reached stationarity. The whole chain, f t g, is first used to construct the Cramer–von Mises statistic. If it
passes the test, you can conclude that the entire chain is stationary. If it fails the test, you drop the initial 10%
of the chain and redo the test by using the remaining 90%. This process is repeated until either a time t is
selected or it reaches a point where there are not enough data remaining to construct a confidence interval
(the cutoff proportion is set to be 50%).
The part of the chain that is deemed stationary is put through a half-width test, which reports whether the
sample size is adequate to meet certain accuracy requirements for the mean estimates. Running the simulation
less than this length of time would not meet the requirement, while running it longer would not provide any
additional information that is needed. The statistic calculated here is the relative half-width (RHW) of the
confidence interval. The RHW for a confidence interval of level 1 ˛ is
RHW D
z.1
˛=2/
.Osn =n/1=2
3 The von Mises distribution was first introduced by von Mises (1918). The density function is p. j/ Ï M.; / D
Œ2I0 ./ 1 exp. cos. // .0 2/, where the function I0 ./ is the modified Bessel function of the first kind and order
zero, defined by I0 ./ D .2/ 1 0 exp. cos. //d.
where z.1 ˛=2/ is the z-score of the 100.1 ˛=2/ percentile (for example, z.1 ˛=2/ D 1:96 if ˛ D 0:05),
sOn is the variance of the chain estimated using the spectral density method (see explanation in the section
"Spectral Density Estimate at Zero Frequency" on page 145), n is the length, and O is the estimated mean.
The RHW quantifies accuracy of the 1 ˛ level confidence interval of the mean estimate by measuring the
ratio between the sample standard error of the mean and the mean itself. In other words, you can stop the
Markov chain if the variability of the mean stabilizes with respect to the mean. An implicit assumption is
that large means are often accompanied by large variances. If this assumption is not met, then this test can
produce false rejections (such as a small mean around 0 and large standard deviation) or false acceptance
(such as a very large mean with relative small variance). As with any other convergence diagnostics, you
might want to exercise caution in interpreting the results.
The stationarity test is one-sided; rejection occurs when the p-value is greater than 1 ˛. To perform the
half-width test, you need to select an ˛ level (the default of which is 0.05) and a predetermined tolerance
value (the default of which is 0.1). If the calculated RHW is greater than , you conclude that there are not
enough data to accurately estimate the mean with 1 ˛ confidence under tolerance of .
Raftery and Lewis Diagnostics
If your interest lies in posterior percentiles, you want a diagnostic test that evaluates the accuracy of the
estimated percentiles. The Raftery-Lewis test (Raftery and Lewis 1992, 1995) is designed for this purpose.
Notation and deductions here closely resemble those in Raftery and Lewis (1995).
Suppose you are interested in a quantity q such that P . q jy/ D q, where q can be an arbitrary
cumulative probability, such as 0.025. This q can be empirically estimated by finding the Œn 100 qth
number of the sorted f t g. Let Oq denote the estimand, which corresponds to an estimated probability
P . Oq / D POq . Because the simulated posterior distribution converges to the true distribution as the
simulation sample size grows, Oq can achieve any degree of accuracy if the simulator is run for a very long
time. However, running too long a simulation can be wasteful. Alternatively, you can use coverage probability
to measure accuracy and stop the chain when a certain accuracy is reached.
A stopping criterion is reached when the estimated probability is within ˙r of the true cumulative probability
q, with probability s, such as P .POq 2 .q r; q C r// D s. For example, suppose you want the coverage
probability s to be 0.95 and the amount of tolerance r to be 0.005. This corresponds to requiring that the
estimate of the cumulative distribution function of the 2.5th percentile be estimated to within ˙0:5 percentage
points with probability 0.95.
The Raftery-Lewis diagnostics test finds the number of iterations, M, that need to be discarded (burn-ins) and
the number of iterations needed, N, to achieve a desired precision. Given a predefined cumulative probability
q, these procedures first find Oq , and then they construct a binary 0 1 process fZt g by setting Zt D 1 if
t Oq and 0 otherwise for all t. The sequence fZt g is itself not a Markov chain, but you can construct
a subsequence of fZt g that is approximately Markovian if it is sufficiently k-thinned. When k becomes
.k/
reasonably large, fZt g starts to behave like a Markov chain.
Next, the procedures find this thinning parameter k. The number k is estimated by comparing the Bayesian
information criterion (BIC) between two Markov models: a first-order and a second-order Markov model. A
jth-order Markov model is one in which the current value of fZt g depends on the previous j values. For
example, in a second-order Markov model,
p Zt D zt jZt 1 D zt 1 ; Zt 2 D zt 2 ; ; Z0 D z0
D p Zt D zt jZt 1 D zt 1 ; Zt 2 D zt 2
where zi D f0; 1g; i D 0; ; t. Given fZt g, you can construct two transition count matrices for a
second-order Markov model:
zt D 0
D 0 zt
For each k, the procedures calculate the BIC that compares the two Markov models. The BIC is based on a
likelihood ratio test statistic that is defined as
wij l log
i D0 j D0 lD0
wij l
wO ij l
where wO ij l is the expected cell count of wij l under the null model, the first-order Markov model, where the
assumption .Zt ? Zt 2 /jZt 1 holds. The formula for the expected cell count is
wij l P P
wO ij l D
The BIC is Gk2 2 log.nk 2/, where nk is the k-thinned sample size (every kth sample starting with the
first), with the last two data points discarded due to the construction of the second-order Markov model. The
thinning parameter k is the smallest k for which the BIC is negative. When k is found, you can estimate a
transition probability matrix between state 0 and state 1 for fZt g:
Because fZt g is a Markov chain, its equilibrium distribution exists and is estimated by
D .0 ; 1 / D
.ˇ; ˛/
˛Cˇ
where 0 D P . q jy/ and 1 D 1 0 . The goal is to find an iteration number m such that after m steps,
the estimated transition probability P .Zm D i jZ0 D j / is within of equilibrium i for i; j D 0; 1. Let
e0 D .1; 0/ and e1 D 1 e0 . The estimated transition probability after step m is
P .Zm
i jZ0
D j / D ej
˛ ˇ/m
which holds when
.˛Cˇ /
max.˛;ˇ /
log.1
assuming 1
ˇ/
ˇ > 0.
Therefore, by time m, fZt g is sufficiently close to its equilibrium distribution, and you know that a total
size of M D mk should be discarded as the burn-in.
Next, the procedures estimate N, the number of simulations needed to achieve desired accuracy on percentile
estimation. The estimate of P . q jy/ is ZN n D n1 ntD1 Zt . For large n, ZN n is normally distributed
with mean q, the true cumulative probability, and variance
1 .2 ˛ ˇ/˛ˇ
n .˛ C ˇ/3
P .q
r ZN n q C r/ D s is satisfied if
˛ ˇ/˛ˇ
.˛ C ˇ/3
1 sC1
Therefore, N D nk.
By using similar reasoning, the procedures first calculate the minimal number of iterations needed to achieve
the desired accuracy, assuming the samples are independent:
Nmin D ˆ
q.1 q/
If f t g does not have that required sample size, the Raftery-Lewis test is not carried out. If you still want to
carry out the test, increase the number of Markov chain iterations.
The ratio N=Nmin is sometimes referred to as the dependence factor. It measures deviation from posterior
sample independence: the closer it is to 1, the less correlated are the samples. There are a few things to keep
in mind when you use this test. This diagnostic tool is specifically designed for the percentile of interest
and does not provide information about convergence of the chain as a whole (Brooks and Roberts 1999). In
addition, the test can be very sensitive to small changes. Both N and Nmin are inversely proportional to r 2 ,
so you can expect to see large variations in these numbers with small changes to input variables, such as the
desired coverage probability or the cumulative probability of interest. Last, the time until convergence for a
parameter can differ substantially for different cumulative probabilities.
Autocorrelations
The sample autocorrelation of lag h for a parameter is defined in terms of the sample autocovariance
Oh ./ D
Oh . /
; jhj < n
O0 ./
The sample autocovariance function of lag h of is defined by
Xh 1
t Ch
N ; 0 h < n
You can use autocorrelation and trace plots to examine the mixing of a Markov chain. A closely related
measure of mixing is the effective sample size (ESS) (Kass et al. 1998).
ESS is defined as follows:
ESS D
1 C 2 kD1 k . /
where n is the total sample size and k . / is the autocorrelation of lag k for . The quantity is referred to
as the autocorrelation time. To estimate , the Bayesian procedures first find a cutoff point k after which the
autocorrelations are very close to zero, and then sum all the k up to that point. The cutoff point k is such
that jk j < min f0:01; 2sk g, where sk is the estimated standard deviation:
Oj2 . /AA
sk D [email protected] @1 C 2
j D1
ESS and are inversely proportional to each other, and low ESS or high indicates bad mixing of the Markov
Summary Statistics F 151
Let be a p-dimensional
˚ t parameter vector
of interest: D 1 ; : : : ; p . For each i 2 f1; : : : ; pg , there are
n observations: i D i ; t D 1; : : : ; n .
The posterior mean is calculated by using the following formula:
i ; for i D 1; : : : ; n
E .i jy/ Ni D
Sample standard deviation (expressed in variance term) is calculated by using the following formula:
Var.i jy/ si2 D
Standard Error of the Mean Estimate
Suppose you have n iid samples, the mean estimate is Ni , and the sample standard deviation is si . The
standard error of the estimate is O i = n. However, positive autocorrelation (see the section "Autocorrelations"
on page 150 for a definition) in the MCMC samples makes this an underestimate. To take account of the
autocorrelation, the Bayesian procedures correct the standard error by using effective sample size (see the
section "Effective Sample Size" on page 150).
Given an effective sample size of m, the standard error for Ni is O i = m. The procedures use the following
formula (expressed in variance term):
bar.N / D 1 C 2
kD1 k .i /
The standard error of the mean is also known as the Monte Carlo standard error (MCSE). The MCSE provides
a measurement of the accuracy of the posterior estimates, and small values do not necessarily indicate that
you have recovered the true posterior mean.
Percentiles
Sample percentiles are calculated using Definition 5 (see Chapter 4, "The UNIVARIATE Procedure" (Base
SAS Procedures Guide: Statistical Procedures),).
Correlation between i and j is calculated as
rij D r
2 P t
t j
Covariance
Covariance i and j is calculated as
sij D
Nj =.n
Equal-Tail Credible Interval
Let .i jy/ denote the marginal posterior
of i . A 100
˛=2 1 ˛=2
equal-tail credible interval for i is i ; i
, where i jy D 2 , and i
The interval is obtained using the empirical ˛2 and .1 ˛2 / percentiles of it .
˛/ %
jy D 1 ˛2 .
Highest Posterior Density (HPD) Interval
For a definition of an HPD interval, see the section "Interval Estimation" on page 129. The procedures use
the Chen-Shao algorithm (Chen and Shao 1999; Chen, Shao, and Ibrahim 2000) to estimate an empirical
HPD interval of i :
˚ 1. Sort it to obtain the ordered values:
i .1/ i .2/ i .n/
2. Compute the 100 .1
˛/ % credible intervals:
Rj .n/ D i .j / ; i .j CŒ.1
for j D 1; 2; : : : ; n
Œ.1
˛/n/
˛/ n.
3. The 100 .1 ˛/ % HPD interval, denoted by Rj .n/, is the one with the smallest interval width
among all credible intervals.
Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
The deviance information criterion (DIC) (Spiegelhalter et al. 2002) is a model assessment tool, and it is a
Bayesian alternative to Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC,
also known as the Schwarz criterion). The DIC uses the posterior densities, which means that it takes the prior
information into account. The criterion can be applied to nonnested models and models that have non-iid
data. Calculation of the DIC in MCMC is trivial—it does not require maximization over the parameter space,
like the AIC and BIC. A smaller DIC indicates a better fit to the data set.
Letting be the parameters of the model, the deviance information formula is
DIC D D./ C pD D D./ C 2pD
D./ D 2 .log.f .y//
log.p.yj/// : deviance
p.yj/: likelihood function with the normalizing constants.
f .y/: a standardizing term that is a function of the data alone. This term is constant with respect to
the parameter and is irrelevant when you compare different models that have the same likelihood
function. Since the term cancels out in DIC comparisons, its calculation is often omitted.
N OTE : You can think of the deviance as the difference in twice the log likelihood between the saturated,
f .y/, and fitted, p.yj/, models.
: posterior mean, approximated by n1 ntD1 t
D./: posterior mean of the deviance, approximated by n1 ntD1 D. t /. The expected deviation measures
how well the model fits the data.
N It is the deviance evaluated at your "best" posterior
N equal to 2 log.p.yj//.
D./: deviance evaluated at ,
estimate.
pD : effective number of parameters. It is the difference between the measure of fit and the deviance at
the estimates: D./ D./. This term describes the complexity of the model, and it serves as a
penalization term that corrects deviance's propensity toward models with more parameters.
A Bayesian Reading List
This section lists a number of Bayesian textbooks of varying difficulty degrees and a few tutorial/review
papers.
Introductory Books
Berry, D. A. (1996), Statistics: A Bayesian Perspective, London: Duxbury Press.
Bolstad, W. M. (2007), Introduction to Bayesian Statistics, 2nd ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
DeGroot, M. H. and Schervish, M. J. (2002), Probability and Statistics, Reading, MA: Addison Wesley.
Gamerman, D. and Lopes, H. F. (2006), Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Stochastic Simulation for Bayesian
Inference, 2nd ed. London: Chapman & Hall/CRC.
Ghosh, J. K., Delampady, M., and Samanta, T. (2006), An Introduction to Bayesian Analysis, New York:
Springer-Verlag.
Lee, P. M. (2004), Bayesian Statistics: An Introduction, 3rd ed. London: Arnold.
Sivia, D. S. (1996), Data Analysis: A Bayesian Tutorial, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Intermediate-Level Books
Box, G. E. P., and Tiao, G. C. (1992), Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis, New York: John Wiley &
Chen, M. H., Shao Q. M., and Ibrahim, J. G. (2000), Monte Carlo Methods in Bayesian Computation, New
York: Springer-Verlag.
Gelman, A. and Hill, J. (2006), Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models,
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Goldstein, M. and Wooff, D. A. (2007), Bayes Linear Statistics: Theory and Methods, New York: John Wiley
& Sons.
Harney, H. L. (2003), Bayesian Inference: Parameter Estimation and Decisions, New York: Springer-Verlag.
Leonard, T. and Hsu, J. S. (1999), Bayesian Methods: An Analysis for Statisticians and Interdisciplinary
Researchers, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Liu, J. S. (2001), Monte Carlo Strategies in Scientific Computing, New York: Springer-Verlag.
Marin, J. M. and Robert, C. P. (2007), Bayesian Core: a Practical Approach to Computational Bayesian
Statistics, New York: Springer-Verlag.
Press, S. J. (2002), Subjective and Objective Bayesian Statistics: Principles, Models, and Applications, 2nd
ed. New York: Wiley-Interscience.
Robert, C. P. (2001), The Bayesian Choice, 2nd ed. New York: Springer-Verlag.
Tutorial and Review Papers on MCMC F 155
Robert, C. P. and Casella, G. (2004), Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, 2nd ed. New York: Springer-Verlag.
Tanner, M. A. (1993), Tools for Statistical Inference: Methods for the Exploration of Posterior Distributions
and Likelihood Functions, New York: Springer-Verlag.
Advanced Titles
Berger, J. O. (1985), Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis, New York: Springer-Verlag.
Bernardo, J. M. and Smith, A. F. M. (2007), Bayesian Theory, 2nd ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
de Finetti, B. (1992), Theory of Probability, New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Jeffreys, H. (1998), Theory of Probability, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
O'Hagan, A. (1994), Bayesian Inference, volume 2B of Kendall's Advanced Theory of Statistics, London:
Arnold.
Savage, L. J. (1954), The Foundations of Statistics, New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Books Motivated by Statistical Applications and Data Analysis
Carlin, B. and Louris, T. A. (2000), Bayes and Empirical Bayes Methods for Data Analysis, 2nd ed. London:
Chapman & Hall.
Congdon, P. (2006), Bayesian Statistical Modeling, 2nd ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Congdon, P. (2003), Applied Bayesian Modeling, New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Congdon, P. (2005), Bayesian Models for Categorical Data, New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S., and Rubin, D. B. (2004), Bayesian Data Analysis, 3rd ed. London:
Gilks, W. R., Richardson, S., and Spiegelhalter, D. J. (1996), Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice, London:
Tutorial and Review Papers on MCMC
Besag, J., Green, P., Higdon, D., and Mengersen, K. (1995), "Bayesian Computation and Stochastic Systems,"
Statistical Science, 10(1), 3–66.
Casella, G. and George, E. (1992), "Explaining the Gibbs Sampler," The American Statistician, 46, 167–174.
Chib, S. and Greenberg, E. (1995), "Understanding the Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm," The American
Statistician, 49, 327–335.
Chib, S. and Greenberg, E. (1996), "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics,"
Econometric Theory, 12, 409–431.
Kass, R. E., Carlin, B. P., Gelman, A., and Neal, R. M. (1998), "Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice: A
Roundtable Discussion," Statistical Science, 52(2), 93–100.
Amit, Y. (1991), "On Rates of Convergence of Stochastic Relaxation for Gaussian and Non-Gaussian
Distributions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 38, 82–99.
Applegate, D. L., Kannan, R., and Polson, N. (1990), Random Polynomial Time Algorithms for Sampling
from Joint Distributions, Technical report, Carnegie Mellon University, School of Computer Science.
Berger, J. O. (1985), Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis, 2nd Edition, New York: SpringerVerlag.
Berger, J. O. (2006), "The Case for Objective Bayesian Analysis," Bayesian Analysis, 3, 385–402, http:
//ba.stat.cmu.edu/journal/2006/vol01/issue03/berger.pdf.
Berger, J. O. and Wolpert, R. (1988), The Likelihood Principle, 2nd Edition, Hayward, CA: Institute of
Mathematical Statistics.
Bernardo, J. M. and Smith, A. F. M. (1994), Bayesian Theory, New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Besag, J. (1974), "Spatial Interaction and the Statistical Analysis of Lattice Systems," Journal of the Royal
Statistical Society, Series B, 36, 192–326.
Billingsley, P. (1986), Probability and Measure, 2nd Edition, New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Box, G. E. P. and Tiao, G. C. (1973), Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis, New York: John Wiley &
Breiman, L. (1968), Probability, Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
Brooks, S. P. and Gelman, A. (1997), "General Methods for Monitoring Convergence of Iterative Simulations,"
Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 7, 434–455.
Brooks, S. P. and Roberts, G. O. (1998), "Assessing Convergence of Markov Chain Monte Carlo Algorithms,"
Statistics and Computing, 8, 319–335.
Brooks, S. P. and Roberts, G. O. (1999), "On Quantile Estimation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Convergence," Biometrika, 86, 710–717.
Carlin, B. P. and Louis, T. A. (2000), Bayes and Empirical Bayes Methods for Data Analysis, 2nd Edition,
London: Chapman & Hall.
Casella, G. and George, E. I. (1992), "Explaining the Gibbs Sampler," American Statistician, 46, 167–174.
Chan, K. S. (1993), "Asymptotic Behavior of the Gibbs Sampler," Journal of the American Statistical
Association, 88, 320–326.
Chen, M.-H. and Shao, Q.-M. (1999), "Monte Carlo Estimation of Bayesian Credible and HPD Intervals,"
Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 8, 69–92.
Chen, M.-H., Shao, Q.-M., and Ibrahim, J. G. (2000), Monte Carlo Methods in Bayesian Computation, New
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UK: John Wiley & Sons.
Congdon, P. (2003), Applied Bayesian Modeling, Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, Chichester, UK:
John Wiley & Sons.
Congdon, P. (2005), Bayesian Models for Categorical Data, Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics,
Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons.
Cowles, M. K. and Carlin, B. P. (1996), "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Convergence Diagnostics: A Comparative Review," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91, 883–904.
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Wiley & Sons.
Gamerman, D. (1997), "Sampling from the Posterior Distribution in Generalized Linear Models," Statistics
and Computing, 7, 57–68.
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in Normal Data Models Using Gibbs Sampling," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 85,
Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S., and Rubin, D. B. (2004), Bayesian Data Analysis, 2nd Edition,
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Markov Chain Monte Carlo," Statistical Science, 7, 493–497.
Raftery, A. E. and Lewis, S. M. (1995), "The Number of Iterations, Convergence Diagnostics, and Generic
Metropolis Algorithms," in W. R. Gilks, D. J. Spiegelhalter, and S. Richardson, eds., Markov Chain Monte
Carlo in Practice, London: Chapman & Hall.
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Robert, C. P. and Casella, G. (2004), Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, 2nd Edition, New York: SpringerVerlag.
Roberts, G. O. (1996), "Markov Chain Concepts Related to Sampling Algorithms," in W. R. Gilks, D. J.
Spiegelhalter, and S. Richardson, eds., Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice, 45–58, London: Chapman
& Hall.
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report, Harvard University, Department of Mathematics.
Rosenthal, J. S. (1991b), Rates of Convergence for Gibbs Sampling for Variance Component Models,
Technical report, Harvard University, Department of Mathematics.
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Schervish, M. J. and Carlin, B. P. (1992), "On the Convergence of Successive Substitution Sampling," Journal
of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 1, 111–127.
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adaptive algorithms
adaptive rejection Metropolis sampling (ARMS),
adaptive rejection sampling (ARS), 134
Introduction to Bayesian Analysis, 134
Markov chain Monte Carlo, 134
advantages and disadvantages of Bayesian analysis
assessing MCMC convergence
autocorrelation, 150
effective sample sizes (ESS), 150
Gelman and Rubin diagnostics, 143
Geweke diagnostics, 144
Heidelberger and Welch diagnostics, 146
Raftery and Lewis diagnostics, 147
visual inspection, 137
Bayes' theorem
Bayesian credible intervals
definition of, 129
equal-tail intervals, 129, 152
highest posterior density (HPD) intervals, 129,
Bayesian hypothesis testing
Bayesian interval estimation
Bayesian probability
burn-in for MCMC
convergence diagnostics, see assessing MCMC
definition of
deviance information criterion
DIC, see deviance information criterion
effective sample sizes (ESS)
equal-tail intervals
Introduction to Bayesian Analysis, 129, 152
frequentist probability
Markov chain Monte Carlo, 131, 133
highest posterior density (HPD) intervals
adaptive algorithms, 134
advantages and disadvantages of Bayesian
analysis, 130
assessing MCMC convergence, 137
Bayes' theorem, 124
Bayesian credible intervals, 129
Bayesian hypothesis testing, 129
Bayesian interval estimation, 129
Bayesian probability, 124
burn-in for MCMC, 136
deviance information criterion, 153
frequentist probability, 124
Gibbs sampler, 131, 133
independence sampler, 135
Jeffreys' prior, 127
likelihood function, 124
likelihood principle, 130
marginal distribution, 124
Markov chain Monte Carlo, 131, 135, 136
Metropolis algorithm, 131
Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, 131
Monte Carlo standard error (MCSE), 128, 151
normalizing constant, 124
posterior distribution, 124
posterior summary statistics, 151
prior distribution, 124, 125
spectral density estimate at zero frequency, 145
thinning of MCMC, 136
likelihood principle
marginal distribution
Markov chain Monte Carlo
Gamerman algorithm, 136
Introduction to Bayesian Analysis, 131, 135, 136
Metropolis algorithm, 131, 132
Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, 131, 132
Slice Sampler, 135
Metropolis algorithm
Metropolis-Hastings algorithm
Monte Carlo standard error (MCSE)
normalizing constant
point estimation
posterior distribution
improper, 126
posterior summary statistics
correlation, 152
Covariance, 152
equal-tail intervals, 152
highest posterior density (HPD) intervals, 152
mean, 151
Monte Carlo standard error (MCSE), 151
percentiles, 151
standard deviation, 151
standard error of the mean estimate, 151
prior distribution
conjugate, 127
diffuse, 126
flat, 126
informative, 127
noninformative, 126, 127
subjective, 126
vague, 126
thinning of MCMC
Introduction to Bayesian Analysis Procedures SAS/STAT User's Guide
– Bayesian statistics MCMC techniques How to sample from the posterior distribution
Part-IV Two-dimensional continuous distributions
The MCMC Procedure SAS/STAT User's Guide (Book Excerpt)
The MCMC Procedure SAS/STAT User's Guide,
The MCMC Procedure SAS/STAT 13.1 User's Guide ®
The MCMC Procedure
The MCMC Procedure (Chapter) SAS/STAT 12.1 User's Guide
Learning Bayesian Models with R
Current Directions in SAS/STAT Software Development
How to get data and model to fit together?
The GENMOD Procedure (Chapter) SAS/STAT 12.1 User's Guide
SAS/STAT 922 User's Guide: The GENMOD Procedure (Book Excerpt)
The GENMOD Procedure SAS/STAT User's Guide (Book Excerpt)
Extreme value theory with Markov chain Monte Carlo - an automated
The GENMOD Procedure SAS/STAT 13.2 User's Guide ®
Getting Started with the MCMC Procedure | C procedure, where you can use it to draw
either model parameters or random-effects parameters. As with the ARMS algorithm, only the univariate
version of the slice sampler is implemented. The slice sampler requires repeated evaluations of the objective
function; this happens in the search algorithm to identify each horizontal slice at every iteration. Hence, the
computational cost could be high if each evaluation of the objective function requires one pass through the
entire data set.
Independence Sampler
Another type of Metropolis algorithm is the "independence" sampler. It is called the independence sampler
because the proposal distribution in the algorithm does not depend on the current point as it does with the
random-walk Metropolis algorithm. For this sampler to work well, you want to have a proposal distribution
that mimics the target distribution and have the acceptance rate be as high as possible.
2. Generate a new sample, new , by using the proposal distribution q./. The proposal distribution does
not depend on the current value of t .
f .new jy/=q.new /
f . t jy/=q. t /
A good proposal density should have thicker tails than those of the target distribution. This requirement
sometimes can be difficult to satisfy especially in cases where you do not know what the target posterior
distributions are like. In addition, this sampler does not produce independent samples as the name seems to
imply, and sample chains from independence samplers can get stuck in the tails of the posterior distribution
if the proposal distribution is not chosen carefully. The MCMC procedure uses the independence sampler.
Gamerman Algorithm
The Gamerman algorithm, named after the inventor Dani Gamerman is a special case of the "Metropolis and
Metropolis-Hastings Algorithms" on page 132 in which the proposal distribution is derived from one iteration
of the iterative weighted least squares (IWLS) algorithm. As the name suggests, a weighted least squares
algorithm is carried out inside an iteration loop. For each iteration, a set of weights for the observations
is used in the least squares fit. The weights are constructed by applying a weight function to the current
residuals. The proposal distribution uses the current iteration's values of the parameters to form the proposal
distribution from which to generate a proposed random value (Gamerman 1997).
The multivariate sampling algorithm is simple but practical, and can be used to obtain random samples from
the posterior distribution of the regression parameters in a generalized linear model (GLM). See "Generalized
Linear Regression" on page 77 in Chapter 4, "Introduction to Regression Procedures," for further details
on generalized linear regression models. See McCullagh and Nelder (1989) for a discussion of transformed
observations and diagonal matrix of weights pertaining to IWLS.
The GENMOD procedure uses the Gamerman algorithm to sample parameters from their multivariate
posterior conditional distributions. For a detailed description and explanation of the algorithm, see Gamerman
Burn-in, Thinning, and Markov Chain Samples
Burn-in refers to the practice of discarding an initial portion of a Markov chain sample so that the effect of
initial values on the posterior inference is minimized. For example, suppose the target distribution is N .0; 1/
and the Markov chain was started at the value 106 . The chain might quickly travel to regions around 0 in
a few iterations. However, including samples around the value 106 in the posterior mean calculation can
produce substantial bias in the mean estimate. In theory, if the Markov chain is run for an infinite amount
of time, the effect of the initial values decreases to zero. In practice, you do not have the luxury of infinite
samples. In practice, you assume that after t iterations, the chain has reached its target distribution and you
can throw away the early portion and use the good samples for posterior inference. The value of t is the
burn-in number.
Assessing Markov Chain Convergence F 137
With some models you might experience poor mixing (or slow convergence) of the Markov chain. This
can happen, for example, when parameters are highly correlated with each other. Poor mixing means
that the Markov chain slowly traverses the parameter space (see the section "Visual Analysis via Trace
Plots" on page 137 for examples of poorly mixed chains) and the chain has high dependence. High sample
autocorrelation can result in biased Monte Carlo standard errors. A common strategy is to thin the Markov
chain in order to reduce sample autocorrelations. You thin a chain by keeping every kth simulated draw
from each sequence. You can safely use a thinned Markov chain for posterior inference as long as the chain
converges. It is important to note that thinning a Markov chain can be wasteful because you are throwing
away a k k 1 fraction of all the posterior samples generated. MacEachern and Berliner (1994) show that you
always get more precise posterior estimates if the entire Markov chain is used. However, other factors, such
as computer storage or plotting time, might prevent you from keeping all samples.
To use the BCHOICE, FMM, GENMOD, LIFEREG, MCMC, and PHREG procedures, you need to determine
the total number of samples to keep ahead of time. This number is not obvious and often depends on the
type of inference you want to make. Mean estimates do not require nearly as many samples as small-tail
percentile estimates. In most applications, you might find that keeping a few thousand iterations is sufficient
for reasonably accurate posterior inference. In all four procedures, the relationship between the number of
iterations requested, the number of iterations kept, and the amount of thinning is as follows:
kept D
where Πis the rounding operator.
Assessing Markov Chain Convergence
Simulation-based Bayesian inference requires using simulated draws to summarize the posterior distribution
or calculate any relevant quantities of interest. You need to treat the simulation draws with care. There are
usually two issues. First, you have to decide whether the Markov chain has reached its stationary, or the
desired posterior, distribution. Second, you have to determine the number of iterations to keep after the
Markov chain has reached stationarity. Convergence diagnostics help to resolve these issues. Note that many
diagnostic tools are designed to verify a necessary but not sufficient condition for convergence. There are no
conclusive tests that can tell you when the Markov chain has converged to its stationary distribution. You
should proceed with caution. Also, note that you should check the convergence of all parameters, and not
just those of interest, before proceeding to make any inference. With some models, certain parameters can
appear to have very good convergence behavior, but that could be misleading due to the slow convergence of
other parameters. If some of the parameters have bad mixing, you cannot get accurate posterior inference for
parameters that appear to have good mixing. See Cowles and Carlin (1996) and Brooks and Roberts (1998)
for discussions about convergence diagnostics.
Visual Analysis via Trace Plots
Trace plots of samples versus the simulation index can be very useful in assessing convergence. The trace
tells you if the chain has not yet converged to its stationary distribution—that is, if it needs a longer burn-in
period. A trace can also tell you whether the chain is mixing well. A chain might have reached stationarity if
the distribution of points is not changing as the chain progresses. The aspects of stationarity that are most
recognizable from a trace plot are a relatively constant mean and variance. A chain that mixes well traverses
its posterior space rapidly, and it can jump from one remote region of the posterior to another in relatively
few steps. Figure 7.1 through Figure 7.4 display some typical features that you might see in trace plots. The
traces are for a parameter called .
Figure 7.1 Essentially Perfect Trace for Figure 7.1 displays a "perfect" trace plot. Note that the center of the chain appears to be around the value
3, with very small fluctuations. This indicates that the chain could have reached the right distribution. The
chain is mixing well; it is exploring the distribution by traversing to areas where its density is very low. You
can conclude that the mixing is quite good here.
Figure 7.2 Initial Samples of Need to be Discarded
Figure 7.2 displays a trace plot for a chain that starts at a very remote initial value and makes its way to the
targeting distribution. The first few hundred observations should be discarded. This chain appears to be
mixing very well locally. It travels relatively quickly to the target distribution, reaching it in a few hundred
iterations. If you have a chain that looks like this, you would want to increase the burn-in sample size. If you
need to use this sample to make inferences, you would want to use only the samples toward the end of the
Figure 7.3 Marginal Mixing for Figure 7.3 demonstrates marginal mixing. The chain is taking only small steps and does not traverse its
distribution quickly. This type of trace plot is typically associated with high autocorrelation among the
samples. To obtain a few thousand independent samples, you need to run the chain for much longer.
Figure 7.4 Bad Mixing, Nonconvergence of The trace plot shown in Figure 7.4 depicts a chain with serious problems. It is mixing very slowly, and it
offers no evidence of convergence. You would want to try to improve the mixing of this chain. For example,
you might consider reparameterizing your model on the log scale. Run the Markov chain for a long time to
see where it goes. This type of chain is entirely unsuitable for making parameter inferences.
Statistical Diagnostic Tests
The Bayesian procedures include several statistical diagnostic tests that can help you assess Markov chain
convergence. For a detailed description of each of the diagnostic tests, see the following subsections. Table 7.1
provides a summary of the diagnostic tests and their interpretations.
Table 7.1 Convergence Diagnostic Tests Available in the
Bayesian Procedures
Gelman-Rubin
Uses parallel chains with dispersed initial
values to test whether they all converge to
the same target distribution. Failure could
indicate the presence of a multi-mode posterior distribution (different chains converge to different local modes) or the need
to run a longer chain (burn-in is yet to be
completed).
Tests whether the mean estimates have
converged by comparing means from the
early and latter part of the Markov chain.
Interpretation of the Test
One-sided test based on a
variance ratio test statistic.
Large b
Rc values indicate rejection.
Heidelberger-Welch
(stationarity test)
Tests whether the Markov chain is a
covariance (or weakly) stationary process. Failure could indicate that a longer
Markov chain is needed.
Cramer–von Mises statistic.
Small p-values indicate rejection.
(half-width test)
Reports whether the sample size is adequate to meet the required accuracy for
the mean estimate. Failure could indicate
that a longer Markov chain is needed.
If a relative half-width statistic is greater than a predetermined accuracy measure,
this indicates rejection.
Raftery-Lewis
Evaluates the accuracy of the estimated
(desired) percentiles by reporting the number of samples needed to reach the desired accuracy of the percentiles. Failure
could indicate that a longer Markov chain
is needed.
Measures dependency among Markov
chain samples.
If the total samples needed
are fewer than the Markov
chain sample, this indicates
rejection.
Geweke
effective sample size
Two-sided test based on a zscore statistic. Large absolute z values indicate rejection.
High correlations between
long lags indicate poor mixing.
Relates to autocorrelation; measures mix- Large discrepancy between
ing of the Markov chain.
the effective sample size and
the simulation sample size
indicates poor mixing.
Gelman and Rubin Diagnostics
Gelman and Rubin diagnostics (Gelman and Rubin 1992; Brooks and Gelman 1997) are based on analyzing
multiple simulated MCMC chains by comparing the variances within each chain and the variance between
chains. Large deviation between these two variances indicates nonconvergence.
Define f t g, where t D 1; : : : ; n, to be the collection of a single Markov chain output. The parameter t is
the tth sample of the Markov chain. For notational simplicity, is assumed to be single dimensional in this
Suppose you have M parallel MCMC chains that were initialized from various parts of the target distribution. Each chain is of length n (after discarding the burn-in). For each t , the simulations are labeled as
t ; where t D 1; : : : ; n and m D 1; : : : ; M . The between-chain variance B and the within-chain variance W
are calculated as
1X t
1 X N
N /2 ; where Nm
m ; N D
.Nm
sm ; where sm
The posterior marginal variance, var.jy/, is a weighted average of W and B. The estimate of the variance is
W C
M C1
If all M chains have reached the target distribution, this posterior variance estimate should be very close to
b =W be close to 1. The square
the within-chain variance W. Therefore, you would expect to see the ratio V
root of this ratio is referred to as the potential scale reduction factor (PSRF). A large PSRF indicates that the
between-chain variance is substantially greater than the within-chain variance, so that longer simulation is
needed. If the PSRF is close to 1, you can conclude that each of the M chains has stabilized, and they are
likely to have reached the target distribution.
A refined version of PSRF is calculated, as suggested by Brooks and Gelman (1997), as
Rc D
dO C 3 V
dO C 1 W
dO D
Var.V
dO C 3 n 1 M C 1 B
nM W
dO C 1
M C1 2 2
Var.sm / C
.M C 1/.n 1/ n
cov.sm
; .Nm
/ / 2N cov.sm
; m /
n M
b/ D
Rc . Gelman and
All the Bayesian procedures also produce an upper 100.1 ˛=2/% confidence limit of b
Rc has an F distribution with degrees of freedom M 1
Rubin (1992) showed that the ratio B=W in b
2 /. Because you are concerned only if the scale is large, not small, only the upper
and 2W 2 M=Var.sm
100.1 ˛=2/% confidence limit is reported. This is written as
˛=2
2W 2
2 /=M
Var.sm
In the Bayesian procedures, you can specify the number of chains that you want to run. Typically three
chains are sufficient. The first chain is used for posterior inference, such as mean and standard deviation; the
other M 1 chains are used for computing the diagnostics and are discarded afterward. This test can be
computationally costly, because it prolongs the simulation M-fold.
It is best to choose different initial values for all M chains. The initial values should be as dispersed from
each other as possible so that the Markov chains can fully explore different parts of the distribution before
| 3,307 |
I cry for my second home "namida ga afuremasu…." I really can't believe it. The earthquake is devastating enough but the tsunami and now possibly the power plants is beyond comprehension. I was in Maui when I heard the news…as the tsunami struck Sendai, tsunami warnings started going off across the Pacific- including Maui. I thought of the fact that on any normal week I would be in Japan and I felt the fear of all of those who I love on those suddenly vulnerable islands so far away. I am blessed to know my friends and yoga kula are all safe but there are so many who are lost that it is a quiet celebration.
As we watched the news clips on the laptop the young girls in the home where I am staying asked " Is God mad at Japan?" As I watched the clips I thought that nature does not pick a country or a person- the earth decides to shake and the water is pushed into movement and where it chooses to go is just nature- it does not pick and choose. I told the girls that what God wants us to know out of this act of nature is that we need to care about each other, take care of each other… love each other. As the world shrinks from technology it should never desensitize us to the fact that we are all here together- manifested forms of one consciousness that needs reminding that we are all connected.
I thought of the beautiful story of the Kannon, or Guan Yin. The Kannon struggled so hard to see all those that were suffering that her head split in half. The Amidha Buddha blessed her with eight heads to see better those she wanted to help. Out of her expanded vision she reached her two arms with compassion to end suffering and they split into two. Once again the Amida buddha took pity on her and grew her a thousand arms to better offer compassion.
My friend Eiko kept saying to me that she could feel a change this year, "tenki" in Japanese,…a turning point. She is so very wise and so very right. There has been a change this year in my teaching, my home life, my deep vision of life. I can't tell what did it or when it was exactly; but it happened. I now sit in a much deeper seat of sorts and<|fim_middle|>3 with Sundari and Skeeter. I hope that by watching these two brilliant souls approach the material I will gain an insight into how I might one day teach an Immersion. The certification process is still on going for me, but I feel I am growing and going deeper in all the right ways.
In the last few months I have spent time with my mentor teacher Robin Golt and her level of wisdom is so deeply humbling. I look to her , and some other teachers I admire very much, and i noticed that many of them are students of Dr.Paul Muller Ortega's and so, come fall, I will meet and study with Paul. I had put off this type of deepening of the nonphysical parts of practice until certification was over but really…what am I waiting for? We all seem to need signs…I figure signs are there for those of us too thick headed to hear Shakti calling us…."huh? me? oh ME???" Yes- it sometimes takes me a while to get the message.
So I am getting better at listening and in that there is an unfolding, a profound deep wisdom that unfurls in your heart- a flower waiting for the light of consciousness to shine on it. I AM THAT…..whoa..can I please go back to ignorance ?This whole new thing has such a weight of responsibility to it that you cannot ignore it…you can't go back. You have hit a turning point and everything has shifted…are you ready for it?
The practice of yoga can make us ready….. if we practice from the heart. There will be more turning points in my life , in all of our lives, because an upward spiral needs to turn to continue it's climb. Like kundalini, the energy of shakti rising through us, we flow through the turns and move and dance our way back home…to our deepest, best selves. | I watch the play of the divine energy of life, the shakti, in a whole new way.
My lack of writing comes from a new offering of my time to yoga therapy. I am in the physio clinic once a week but a whole new group of privates has sprung from that seed and writing has become a luxury. Today I write to you all from- surprise!- Maui. Yes back again to observe and assist an Immersion | 92 |
The Lion Cub Can Grow Again: Season One Episode Eleven
July 31, 2019<|fim_middle|> recently, that is an invaluable experience for anyone.
The second half of the episode begins as Rei wakes up in the Kawamoto's sisters house, having had a dream about his family and the time he and his sister put stickers on their mother's dresser. He is woken by Momo and Hina, similar to the beginning of the episode, only this time he now more calm and relaxed. When the four have breakfast together, Akari checks his temperature and finds he is still a little sick and keeps him at their house.
Something worth pointing out that I forgot to mention up to this point is that in the first half of the episode, Akari plugs in Rei's phone and lets it charge, then opens his phone to show him all the missed calls he's had since getting sick. She does this as a way to remind him that acting like no one cares for him is not only untrue, but also harmful. As the show continues, it will become much more apparent that Akari has become Rei's new maternal figure, whether he understands that or not, which it is revealed near the end of the episode that he kind of does.
Late on in the day, the Kawamoto sister's Aunt Misaki comes over to visit, bringing new years money for everyone, including Rei, which he tries to nicely decline, but fails when Misaki insists. Grandpa later talks to her about Akari working at her bar, and how he feels it is dangerous for her. Aunt Misaki tells him that he has nothing to worry about, letting him know that she will protect her, but also that she use her as a way to strip men of their money.
Later on, after everyone has eaten dinner and Aunt misaki has gone home for the night, the four of them get ready for bed, with Rei awkwardly making his way upstairs after it is revealed that the bath is actually right next to the living room, due to them adding it on later.
Rei prepares for bed, but in doing so questions why everything feels so cozy, and why he feels at home in place owned by people he barely knows. The questions bother him for a second, until he notices stickers on the dresser next to him, much like the ones he put on his mother's when he was young. He then falls asleep, saying that the sleep he got that night was some of the most peaceful he had gotten in a long time.
The last scene here at the end of the episode was another heavy hitter emotionally. It brings Rei closer to a conclusion that he has yet to reach: That family is the people who make you feel at home, and home is a place where you always feel welcome. Rei's improved state of mind near the end is a result of him subconsciously understanding that dynamic.
Overall, this was a turbulent yet deeply satisfying episode. The show brings to Rei a moment of clarity after a violent storm, one filled with abuse, stagnation, and confusion. Still, there is much for him to explore moving forward, and this episode is only the beginning in the journey of Rei finding himself.
AkariAnimated ObservationsAnime/MangaFamilymarch comes in like a lionReirewatch
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3 thoughts on "The Lion Cub Can Grow Again: Season One Episode Eleven"
Hi, I nominated you for this Sunshine Blogger Award thing. You can find the details in this post: https://alsmangablog.wordpress.com/2019/08/03/the-sunshine-blogger-award/
Feel free to ignore it if you don't like doing tag posts 🙂
Scheiguy the Storytella says:
Hey! Thank you so much my dude. I will definitely try to, I just haven't been writing as much the last week or so.
Sounds good, but no worries if you are too busy right now 🙂 | Jack Scheibelein 3 Comments
Welcome, weebs, to Animated Observations
To be completely honest with you all, going through some of the re-watch has been kind of hard, not because the show is bad, but because some of the moments are gut-wrenching in their sadness. I would be lying if I said there were not at least a couple of those moments in this episode in particular, and believe it when I say they hit hard. With that being said though, lets jump into it.
The show opens with a Rei explaining that after his regular season matches, around the end of December, he gets sick, so sick that he is resigned to his bed for days on end, with barely any water and medicine left. Because of this he decides unwisely that the best things to do is just to fall asleep.
For this episode, the show steps back, taking a look at Rei's internal conflicts rather than his external ones, as it gives a great example of in the next scene. After Rei begins his cycle of sleeping, waking up, and sleeping, he starts to have a recurring dream that he says he has been having since childhood. The dream involves him ridding peacefully up a large escalator. However, when he gets to the top, he arrives in an empty room with no way of getting himself down.
Now, as is present in plenty other forms of media, if a character has a recurring dream, it probably means something important, and in this case, Rei's dream actually has roughly two meanings. The first is that Rei's actually skill level in Shogi has been going up ever since he was a kid and began learning the game at professional level. However, even if Rei continues on his journey and becomes the best player in the world, that title will likely bring with it a feeling of not being able to give it up, and being at risk of seeing himself as a failure.
The second has to do with other people's expectation of him. As he climbs the mountain, or rather the escalator, that is professional Shogi, people's expectation of him will also go up, until they expect him to always be at the top, which reinforces the first meaning and how Rei might not be able to get down both literally from his title as best in the world, but also figuratively as the version of himself that people see in their heads.
One last thing I think is also worth pointing out is that when talking about the dream, Rei specifically denotes the pleasantness of the escalator ride, symbolic of his status as a child prodigy and how easily he ascended to that status.
However, after a few days of being in a perpetual daze, Hina, Momo, and Akari all come to his apartment to see what is going on, and take him to the doctor. Afterwards the three go home and Akari gives him some medicine and food to try and quell his fever. The four of them, along with grandpa, proceed to enjoy their New Year's Eve.
After a while though, Momo and Grandpa, along with their three cats pass out, and Hina goes to clean the kitchen. While Akari begins to clean the kitchen, she reminisces about when she, her mother and grandmother would clean by themselves after everyone else fell asleep. She then makes more food for Rei, and tells him that mixing in pickled plums with his food with making it taste fresher, and remembers not only that she said that earlier, but also that it was something her mother used to say when she was sick.
Soon, the two begin wallowing in memories of the past, letting out a healthy cry as they desperately search for tissues. This is probably one of the more powerful moments of the first season, as it is a reminder of both Rei and Akari's painful past, and how each of them have struggled to get where they are. It not only allows them to understand one another better, but allows them to feel comfortable in each other, and as I have learned | 823 |
Our staffs are selected very carefully, not only for their qualifications and experience but also for their love of children. We understand that continuity of care for the children is paramount and for that reason we are totally committed to promoting staff loyalty. There is nothing worse for<|fim_middle|> needs of individual key children.
· Devise written short and medium term plans in conjunction with the nurseries curriculum.
· Allow written plans to inform individual development needs.
· Ensure that the health and well-being of the child is considered with utmost importance, and that individual caring and development needs are met.
· Ensure the implementation of ail short and medium term plans.
changing rooms and key worker. | a child's development at nursery than to experience constantly changing faces due to staff turnover.
At Bright Steps Day Nursery, it is our policy to operate at more than the statutory minimum at all times. A qualified and experienced member of staff cares for each group of children.
The Early Years Foundation Stage requires the person in charge of a nursery and the deputy to have an appropriate level 3 qualification or qualified teacher status that specialise in the early years. In addition, at least half of the remaining staff must hold an appropriate level 2 qualification.
Our policy is to exceed statutory requirements, encouraging staff to develop their qualifications and to attend courses in areas such as special needs, equal opportunities and behaviour management. We expect all staff to obtain First Aid and Food Hygiene qualifications within six months of appointment, and to keep these up to date.
· Ensure that all children receive consistent and continual care in all aspects of their development.
· Provide an environment where children can fee! safe and secure and also gain confidence in themselves and others.
· Assess the | 207 |
NBC Olympics' digital offering is designed to maximize viewer engagement through comprehensive coverage, results, schedules and bios along with multiple tools to foster social interaction. The combination of Akamai's cloud-based digital media, site performance and security solutions help make the entire online experience faster, scalable and more secure. With Akamai, NBC Olympics can efficiently deliver high-quality video through NBCOlympics.com and the NBC Sports Live Extra mobile app. These experiences are automatically optimized for viewing devices and network variability while enjoying protection against malicious traffic.
Rinklin said: "A production of the importance, scope and magnitude of NBC Olympics' digital experience involves countless complexities that can be managed through Akamai's cloud-based solutions. The Akamai Intelligent Platform is designed to handle the challenges that organizations face in site performance, video delivery and security. Akamai is proud to partner with NBC Olympics on the Sochi Winter Games and is looking forward to helping viewers across America enjoy their favorite events wherever and whenever they want, and on whatever device they choose."
Cordella said: "We are pleased to be working with Akamai, and are confident that the breadth of the Akamai cloud services, including high-quality video, site performance and security, will improve the viewer experience while watching<|fim_middle|> network infrastructure, and other factors that are discussed in Akamai's Annual Report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, and other documents periodically filed with the SEC. | the Games on either NBCOlympics.com or the NBC Sports Live Extra app. Viewers will enjoy a consistent and high-quality experience on any device, anywhere."
The Sochi Olympics mark the first time that all Winter Games competitions will be streamed live. For live and on-demand video delivery, NBC Olympics is leveraging Akamai Digital Media solutions to stream all 98 events, including every medal competition, event highlights, and athlete interviews and profiles. Akamai is also supporting DVR functions such as pause and event rewinds. The suite of cloud-based media workflow, storage and delivery tools provides the necessary quality and scale to solve the challenges of multi-device consumption.
NBCOlympics.com is NBC Olympics' re-launched portal built to serve as the hub for its digital Winter Games experience. The site leverages Akamai's Ion next-generation site performance technology – a tightly integrated suite of intelligent acceleration and optimization technologies to make real-time decisions based on the requirements of the given connectivity and situation. As a result, viewers can enjoy fast, personalized experiences across devices, browsers and networks.
Since 2004, Akamai has helped rights-holders worldwide deliver live and on-demand online streaming of the Olympic Games in both winter and summer.
The release contains information about future expectations, plans and prospects of Akamai's management that constitute forward-looking statements for purposes of the safe harbor provisions under The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these forward-looking statements as a result of various important factors including, but not limited to, the effects of any attempts to intentionally disrupt our services or network by hackers or others, unexpected termination of Akamai's relationship with NBC Olympics, a failure of Akamai's | 359 |
There is nothing quite as elegant as a brick home. Masonry work is known for its durability as well as its beauty, but many people are surprised to learn that most brick homes built in the last 30 years are not made from solid brick but brick veneer siding. A true brick home is made from the ground up, block-upon-block, to support the home. Brick veneer siding, on the other hand, is attached to the house itself, similar to vinyl siding. While it's still real masonry, it's really just a layer over the home's wooden framework.
Brick veneer offers many of the same benefits of solid brick homes, including durability and insulation, at a fraction of the price. If you want the durability, performance, and charm of genuine brick masonry without the cost of building a home from the ground up, lightweight brick veneer may be a good option for you.
This buying guide for brick veneer siding will help you evaluate your many options in terms of styles and costs while comparing it against other siding options.
There are dozens of brands that manufacture brick veneer, although a few lead the industry in terms of<|fim_middle|> handyman (+10%)/franchise-type cleaning service (+20)/service hired by a property management company (+25).
While an unlicensed handyman service costs less, there is risk involved. If your home is damaged, you'll probably have to pay the repair costs yourself. Common problems with brick and brick veneer cleaning are damaged veneer, displaced mortar and water forced behind the siding where it can cause leaks, mold and rot. These can be costly and serious issues.
The best approach to getting quality, risk-free professional cleaning of your brick or veneer siding is to do the hiring yourself. Get estimates from several licensed, insured companies, and tell them they're competing for the work.
Brick and veneer siding can be cleaned with a pressure washer. A coat of cleaning detergent is sprayed on first and allowed to sit long enough to loosen dirt but not long enough to dry. Then, the detergent is rinsed using a pressure washer. Excessive pressure should not be used, or brick, mortar or veneer could be damaged. Also, mortar and the caulk around doors and windows should be in good condition before pressure washing the veneer or brick. | availability and options. Flexi-Brick is one of the leading brands and available at most major home supply chains. Flexi-Brick offers a range of colors as well as pre-formed corners to create ledges and three-dimensional details. Flexi-Brick advertises itself as the easiest brick veneer to install with a lightweight and flexible material that can be cut with scissors and applied to uneven surfaces.
Z-Brick, established in 1956, was the first manufactured brick veneer company in the U.S. and remains an industry leader. Z-Brick offers brick veneer for interior and exterior use with a Z-Ment system that acts as an adhesive and mortar joints with no metal grid system necessary for installation.
Brickweb offers thin brick that is pre-mounted and aligned on webbed sheets for easy installation. Brickweb systems offer the look of traditional masonry with real kiln-fired clay that can be installed indoors or outdoors.
Other leading brands include Nextstone, Novabrik, Belden, and Old Mill Thin Brick Systems.
Brick veneer is made with thin bricks mounted onto a surface. The bricks are less than half the thickness of a regular brick, which means less material is necessary during manufacturing. Each manufacturer uses different materials, although brick veneer is usually made from natural materials such as clay or made from raw materials, such as Portland cement mixed with aggregates for texture and color oxides. If you want the appearance of natural brick, clay brick veneer will have the most natural texture and appearance in earth and red tones.
Brick veneer is available in a wide variety of colors and most manufacturers offer color catalogs with anywhere from 10 to 100 brick colors in hues of red and brown (for a traditional brick masonry style) as well as white, gray, buff, cream, tan, and black. Along with many color options, you can also choose among many textures and even shapes. Some manufacturers, such as Belden, offer special brick shapes to help you achieve the look you have in mind. You can use special brick shapes to add unique design elements like angles, curves, slopes, corners, and accents to your project.
Brick veneer is certainly more affordable than solid brick, although it is one of the most expensive siding options, especially when compared to vinyl. The cost of brick veneer may be anywhere from $7 to $16 per square foot installed. Covering a 1,500 square foot surface can cost anywhere from $12,000 to more than $22,000.
Real brick or brick veneer is going to be on your home for decades to come, so the structure beneath it must be in excellent condition. Before installation is the time to make needed upgrades and repairs. Here is a list of common improvements made before brick is installed and their cost.
As homes settle and wood ages, framing can twist or bulge. Plywood can cup at the edges. All these prevent proper installation of genuine brick and brick veneer. If your home has these issues, it probably affected the appearance of the old siding, so won't be a surprise when it is uncovered.
Cost to repair a home's sheathing: $3.75-$6.65 per square foot.
When gutters, caulking and old siding fail, water penetrates into the wood and causes warping and rot. Common locations are the home's fascia and the wood pockets around door and window frames. Sheathing must sometimes be replaced, an expense just listed above.
Cost of fascia replacement: $6.00-$9.00 per linear foot for wood; 14-$20 per linear foot for aluminum or composite.
Cost to repair window and door framing: $375-$650 per frame.
Weather-resistant barrier (WRB) is also called house wrap or Tyvek (after a leading brand). It probably wasn't used when your home was last sided, or what's there is in poor condition. The purpose of WRB is to give your home a tight, energy-efficient envelope that reduces heating and cooling costs. It also prevents moisture penetration and allows trapped moisture to escape. In short, skipping house wrap is a shortcut that isn't wise.
Attics need ventilation, or heat and moisture get trapped. The problems caused include cupped shingles, rot and mold in the attic and high utility bills. If your home doesn't have gable vents or if they are too small, this is an essential repair. It's a cheap repair compared to the money is will save you over the years.
There are many advantages to choosing brick veneer over solid brick construction. Veneer has a much thinner profile and less weight. While traditional brick has dimensions of 4″ x 8″, veneer has about one-quarter of the thickness with the same length and the same appearance once installed.
Superior insulation is also an advantage of brick veneer over traditional brick. Brick itself is not a good insulator, although brick veneer is built on the outer edge of a home's foundation, leaving a space of air between the veneer and the home's sheathing for superior insulation. This air cavity between the veneer and the house keeps moisture out as well. Solid brick walls are poor insulators against cold and water and may allow moisture to get through exterior walls and into the home.
Brick veneer does not require foundations or footings, unlike real brick. It requires a very simple support system, in most cases, unlike a solid brick home, which requires substantial foundation and footing. It can be installed indoors or outdoors and on any surface, including uneven or curved surfaces.
Because it has just one layer of masonry and often comes on a webbed sheeting, brick veneer siding is very easy to install. In fact, it's often marketed to do-it-yourself homeowners who have limited experience with mortar work.
Like solid brick, brick veneer is attractive, durable, and fireproof. It requires no staining or painting and very little maintenance and it will never fade or rot. Veneer, however, is much more affordable than brick without sacrificing much in terms of durability. Veneer is very durable against the elements.
There are a few downsides to brick veneer siding. It is not as stable as solid brick in case of heavy winds or earthquakes. Brick veneer isn't recommended for all homes, however, including homes in earthquake-prone areas and homes that have a great deal of surface vibrations, such as homes located near heavy traffic. Brick veneer is also not recommended in areas that get heavy rainfall, as a great deal of rain can cause moisture retention within the surface of the brick veneer.
Brick veneer can also be very labor intensive to install, depending on the home.
Brick and brick or stone veneer siding cleaning costs are $.40 to $.85 (40-85 cents) per square foot of siding.
Who cleans your siding plays a major role in what the job will cost. From cheapest to costliest, your options are: Unlicensed handyman/licensed and insured | 1,462 |
Nokia's latest smartphone, the business oriented E7, has started shipping around the world today. Of course, "<|fim_middle|> us, but the Nokia E7 is expected to go for around £420.
The Nokia E7 boasts a 4in AMOLED touch display (the largest on any of the new Symbian range), an 8MP camera with dual-LED flash, HD video capture, 16GB of on-board memory and a slide-out QWERTY keyboard.
For business types, there's secure access to email, contacts, calendar and tasks with Microsoft Exchange server, and Microsoft Communicator Mobile.
Colour-wise it's the same dealio as the Nokia N8, namely dark grey, silver-white, blue, green and orange.
The Nokia E7 will be available on Vodafone when it does finally shows face over here. | around the world" doesn't encompass us in the UK just yet. Boo.
The handset was originally announced at Nokia World last September, almost five months ago, but UK consumers will have to wait longer still. There's no official release date for | 49 |
It's been an overwhelmingly busy two weeks. Thanksgiving flew by, and we are in the process of packing our apartment for the upcoming move on Saturday.
We enjoyed Thanksgiving at David's parent's house for a fairly laid back celebration. Dad cooked up bratwursts on the grill, and Mom whipped up our favorite mashed potatoes, and I threw together a salad. It was a satisfying even though not traditional Thanksgiving feast. We spent the day happily playing games as a family, and had a brief outing to the $3 theater to see Despicable Me 3, which was much better than I anticipated, after the disappointment of the 2nd movie and the near trash of the Minions movie. We thoroughly enjoyed the movie, and went back to the house to play more games together. Family time is so valuable, but not just any family time: family time that is dedicated to joy and laughter and relationship. Games are one of the best ways to spend time with family and to bond in humor, personalities, and ideas. It's always so special when everyone including Dad and Mom and all the siblings available get (un) comfortable on the floor for a good card or board game.
Since then it's been a whirlwind of packing boxes in between our usual work schedules, and another visit from my parents from South Florida. While David and I were doing a fall/winter photo shoot at our local nature center, they arrived yesterday to do a final walk-through of the house they have just purchased to make sure everything was up to snuff, after which we enjoyed a great Indian meal at Bombay House, David's and my favorite local Memphis Indian restaurant. It was a happy time of reunion and celebration preparing to close on the new house today! I managed to take the whole day off today which allowed me to tag along to the closing on the new house and spend the day with my parents enjoying lunch, and then getting a few preliminary planning tasks accomplished at the new house. David and I will be moving into the back house on their new property this Saturday. It's going to be a treat to be out of apartments finally!
It's been an exhausting day for me, and my sweet Mother offered to cook dinner so I wouldn't have to. She's lovingly cooking up some stir-fried veggies and salmon in the kitchen while I'm resting on the couch enjoying a snack<|fim_middle|> family night tonight before they fly out tomorrow morning and life is back to a somewhat form of usual, except not really because we're caught up in the middle of moving. I'm hoping in a month or so once we're all moved in I'll feel like I know what normal is again. | and some Wonderlands from Jon Foreman, and my Dad is working on some new house business.
David should be home shortly for dinner, and we'll enjoy a | 33 |
A: If you want to be hypnotized then I can hypnot<|fim_middle|> want to be hypnotized then no one can hypnotize you. All hypnosis is, ultimately, a collaboration between the client and the hypnotist. Both work together to create the therapeutic hypnosis experience.
A. We have offices in Georgetown, TX and in Austin, TX. We offer services over Skype and we also offer concierge services.
Q: Do sessions over Skype or the telephone really work?
A: Yes! In fact, most of my business is over Skype and the telephone. Hypnosis is a subjective experience and you will get out of it exactly what you put into it, either in person or from a remote location. I have worked with multiple clients all over the country and the world via Skype and telephone and they have all reported outstanding results with issues ranging from pain to anxiety to weight management.
A: The number of sessions will vary according to any number of factors, primarily client resistance. Although most clients receive immediate relief, we recommend four sessions.
A: Individual sessions are generally around $200 per session. Concierge rates will vary. We do offer group rates, so if you'd like to get together with some friends, we encourage you to do it! Behavioral change often works best when using a buddy system.
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A: Concierge Hypnosis Services bring the hypnosis to you, at home, on vacation, or anywhere in the world via Skype or Zoom.
Q: Will it work for what ails me?
A: At the Mottern Institute for Mind-Body Wellness, we are dedicated to providing our clients with the most up-to-date, evidence based practices in the field of hypnosis. We review the research literature for evidence of what works and bring that knowledge to the work we do with our clients. One of the best places to find if previous research has been done on your problem is to Google hypnosis and your specific issue (e.g., hypnosis tinnitus). You will probably be surprised that hypnosis has been used to work with your issue. If you can't find anything, that's okay. Give us a call and we'll be happy to schedule a free initial assessment to discuss your issue and how hypnosis can help.
A: The Mottern Institute for Mind-Body Wellness (formerly Knoxville Center for Clinical Hypnosis) has been in business since 2009. We have hypnotized hundreds of clients during that time. We are also very active in presenting and publishing on the subject of hypnosis. Dr. Mottern has been a practicing therapist since 2000.
Q: There are other people out there who have been doing this longer than you. What makes you different?
A: 1)Experience. While there are those who have been doing hypnosis for longer, that doesn't mean they have as much experience. Experience is based on the number of clients with which one has worked. We've used hypnosis with hundreds of clients, giving us quite a bit of experience. 2) Continued Education & Training. Our professional licensure requires a number of Continuing Education Units each year to remain an active member of professional organizations. Not only does this provide us with professional networking, it keeps us up-to-date on advances and trends within the professional hypnosis community. 3)Reality Therapy Certified. One of the major things that differentiates out practice form others (even those with more experience) is that we are Reality Therapy Certified and use that in all of our hypnosis work.
A: For those clients who follow our suggestions, our success rate is 100%. For those who choose not to follow our suggestions, the success rate is lower. Hypnosis helps bring about behavioral change but we can't make anyone do anything they do not choose to do. While the suggestions to help you are there in your subconscious mind when you leave the hypnosis session, you can always choose to override them and do something different. This is called free will. In spite of the fact that clients are always in control of their Total Behavior and have voluntarily come to receive hypnosis, many will consciously resist suggestions for improvement. It has been my experience that this resistance usually creates bad reults for the clients choosing that behavior. In fact, these clients usually go 180 degrees in the direction opposite from that which was suggested. This is another reason that we recommend the four sessions - to help clients work through any resistance they may have. | ize you. If you don't | 7 |
Books make the best gifts. And books in a series are even better because once you find a good thing, it's always great to have more. Here are some book series we've enjoyed as a family. Some of these books would fall in the non-fiction category and some are just good fiction that upholds the good and lovely.
Christian Heroes Then and Now are a great way to introduce your readers to great Christian heroes of the past. We've enjoyed a number of these books. I've been slowly adding to our collection for a few years. You can buy these as gift sets or pick and chose individual books.
We bought the Lightkeepers Boys Box Set: Ten Boys for my oldest boy a number of years ago for his birthday. He enjoyed the short stories that introduce each character and then learning more in depth about each one. There is also a Lightkeepers Girls Box Set. After my son read all the boy biographies, he asked for the girl set, too, so don't think that the Ten Girl set is just for girls, or the other way around.
The Daughters of Faith series is unique because it covers the childhood of famous women who made a difference while they were still young. These captivating biographies will inspire your girls to realize that they can make a difference for good<|fim_middle|> the Informer, Ivan and the Hidden Bible, Ivan and the Secret in the Suitcase, and Ivan and the American Journey.
Sherlock Jones and the Assassination Plot is the first book in a series of mysteries starring young Jasper Jones and his friend Penny Gordon. These books are from a Christian worldview. If your child loves mystery books, I highly recommend these. Related stories include Sherlock Jones: The Phantom Airplane, Sherlock Jones: The Willoughby Bank Robbery, and Sherlock Jones: The Missing Diamond.
This is another great mystery series. I love this set! (I know I keep saying this.) One of the great things about it is that your child can get clues to the mysteries by looking up Bible passages. Unlike the Encyclopedia Brown books, which are sometimes based on obscure facts that almost nobody knows, if you take the time to look up the clues found at the end of these mini-mysteries, you can usually solve the mystery. My children have really enjoyed these. You can buy the books individually on Amazon or as a series here.
The Freedom Seekers Series is the story of a family who seeks to help runaway slaves as part of the Underground Railroad. We loved this series. Your child will learn about an important time in history and also learn about courage in the face of danger.
The Viking Quest Series is about a young girl, Bree, who is kidnapped, along with her brother, by Viking raiders. Through her many adventures, she learns where true forgiveness can be found. They are written by the same author as the Freedom Seekers.
If you're looking for Missionary biographies for your younger children, check out Little Lights. These five beautifully illustrated hardback books give lessons from the lives of famous Christians from the past – Amy Carmichael, Hudson Taylor, Corrie ten Boom, George Muller and Helen Roseveare. If you enjoy this set, there is a second set available.
Billy and Blaze is a series about a boy and his horse. Though not necessarily Christian books, they are sweet old-fashioned stories. These are great to read aloud to younger kids or for kids to read themselves if they have a pretty good grasp on reading.
Some great series here! My kids especially enjoyed the Scripture Sleuth books.
They are a lot of fun, aren't they!?
I've seen some of these, but some were new to me. We love the YWAM biographies here! Thank you for linking up with Literacy Musings Monday! | even when they are still young. My boys enjoyed these, so I wish that the author would do a series on boys, too! The first set covers the lives of Phillis Wheatley, Harriet Tubman, Eliza Shirley (a young girl who pioneered the work of the Salvation Army in the United States), and Olive Oatman and her sisters (who were captured by Indians and found grace to live amid their captors). There is also a second set in the series.
We love this set! These are some of my favorite books for young people. In them, young Ivan lives out his faith in communist Russia. It's hard to find these books as a set, but they are available individually on Amazon. This book will build your children's faith and make them thankful for the freedoms they have to worship God. Books in the series include Ivan and the Moscow Circus, Ivan and the Daring Escape, Ivan and | 187 |
EP 460 Is Capitalism Good for Our Health?
June<|fim_middle|>.
https://media.blubrry.com/america_trendscom/p/content.blubrry.com/america_trendscom/Paul_Armentano123.mp3 | 30, 2021 podcastdaveblubrry
https://www.amazon.com/At-What-Cost-Modern-Capitalism/dp/0190078626
There is a growing concern that capitalism, as presently practiced in the United States, is not working in the best interest of the majority of our citizens. The growing income inequality gap is just one measure of how the ideal of The American Dream is becoming an illusion to a growing sector of our population. In his book, 'At What Cost', Nicholas Freudenberg, public health expert and City University of New York distinguished professor, demonstrates how the impacts of a virulent form of capitalism is affecting everything from the food we eat to education we receive to the medical care we can obtain. While the benefits of the capitalist model were best demonstrated in the mid twentieth century, corporate interests have dominated our national politics for the last forty years and the results are concerning. Americans consider themselves less happy, healthy, or freer than in the past.. And our confidence in the future is waning. How do we right this ship? We look at the data to back these conclusions and offer solutions going forward.
https://media.blubrry.com/america_trendscom/p/content.blubrry.com/america_trendscom/Nicholas_Freudenberg123.mp3
EP 459 The Future of the Post Office
https://www.snailworks.com/External3/about-us.aspx
'Neither snow nor rain nor heat nor gloom of night stays these couriers from their swift completion of their appointed rounds' has been the mantra of the United States Postal Service since its roots in 1775 before our country was formed. It is one of the few government agencies explicitly referred to in the U.S. Constitution. While the USPS remains a vital service its finances are in jeopardy because of a requirement that it forward find its pension obligations, competition from private deliverers like UPS and Fed Ex as well as the internet's impact on the quantity of first class mail. With no operating funding from the federal government, it has looked into ways to stay afloat as politicians wrangle about its continuing role in our society, particularly in the wake of the 2020 elections. Dave Lewis, president of Snailworks, discusses a range of issues affecting its ongoing importance and its future.
https://media.blubrry.com/america_trendscom/p/content.blubrry.com/america_trendscom/Dave_Lewis123.mp3
EP 458 Will This Housing Boom Go Bust?
https://www.fau.edu/newsdesk/articles/overvalued-housing-may.php
Red hot is a good way to characterize the recent housing boom in America. Fortunately the fundamentals seem better aligned to avoid the crash which we experienced a little over a decade ago. Mortgages are stricter, down payments are higher and the tight supply of housing is supporting prices. Ken H. Johnson is a real estate economist at Florida Atlantic University. On this podcast we explore the reasons behind the rush on properties with 'for sale' signs in the front yard to better understand the market and what it means for you as either a prospective seller or buyer. The conversation is punctuated by Professor Johnson's insights as to how to look at real estate as an investment and judge what your strategies should be. This podcast is perfect for an experienced homeowner or a first time buyer.
https://media.blubrry.com/america_trendscom/p/content.blubrry.com/america_trendscom/Ken_H_Johnson123.mp3
EP 457 An Autopsy of Crime Labs in America
https://www.amazon.com/Autopsy-Crime-Lab-Exposing-Forensics/dp/0520379330
We have mythologized crime labs to such a degree in America that they have become a staple on television given a seal of authority that is not justified upon serious scrutiny. Duke Law Professor, Brandon Garrett, chapter by chapter in his book, 'Autopsy of a Crime Lab', debunks the rigor, quality controls and the science behind expert testimony in a range of cases. Pick your favorite forensics-hair, fingerprints and DNA, to a lesser extent, and each has problems when it comes to the infallible reliability generally assumed by the public. The whole field of forensics certainly demands greater critique and oversight given the stakes involved. In some cases it's a matter of life or death.
https://media.blubrry.com/america_trendscom/p/content.blubrry.com/america_trendscom/Brandon_Garrett123.mp3
EP 456 Is the Movie Theater Dead?
https://www.wesleyan.edu/academics/faculty/shiggins/profile.html
Movie theaters were in trouble before the pandemic and have been for years. While megascreen complexes were still being built, consumers were gearing up their equipment at home to receive an abundance of movie choices by way of cable and streaming services. The idea of going out to a movie requires many conscious decisions, while staying at home and flipping around requires few. And then, of course, with cell phones and obnoxious patrons, the choice was getting easier by the year. Scott Higgins, Director of the College of Film and the Moving Image, at Wesleyan University, believes there still will be a place for the movie theater, albeit in a much more competitive environment. Many movie studios are competing internally to accommodate both large screen extravanagas and a regular aray of films to populate their own streaming services. While movies have outlasted other eras in which newcomers were said to spell their demise, the new landscape is still emerging and exciting to imagine as choice abounds. We talk movies, too. He weighs in on the best picture of all time. It will surprise you.
https://media.blubrry.com/america_trendscom/p/content.blubrry.com/america_trendscom/Scott_Higgins123.mp3
EP 455 Reinventing Food Banks and Pantries
http://site.foodshare.org/site/PageServer?pagename=2017_about_cdo
On many levels, the elaborate system of food banks feeding into food pantries in America works quite well. That's until you consider the possibilities that these centers can become more client driven, more nutritionally based and can provide a range of wraparound services that they do not at this time. Katie Martin, the Executive Director of the Foodshare Institute on Hunger Research and Solutions, in Connecticut, and the author of 'Reinventing Food Banks and Pantries' believes that the scarcity mentality surrounding our messaging about hunger limits the many possibilities for a new strength based approach empowering clients to use these programs as the basis for greater growth and development. She argues persuasively for a new paradigm in our approach to feeding the millions of Americans in need. Food insecurity, income inequality and poverty are all intertwined. We discuss what the future might look like if we develop new tools to end hunger on today's podcast.
https://media.blubrry.com/america_trendscom/p/content.blubrry.com/america_trendscom/Katie_Martin123.mp3
EP 454 Be Aware: Made in China Label May Mean Made in a Forced Labor Camp
June 9, 2021 podcastdaveblubrry
THIS IS A BOOK AND PODCAST THAT YOU CAN'T AFFORD NOT TO PAY ATTENTION TO !
https://www.ameliapang.com/
That's a nice shirt you're wearing and where did you get that cute little display for Halloween? In all likelihood, both of items came from China. While we are aware that Chinese goods are cheaper than those made in the United States, do we now why? We might think that the standard of living is lower and the benefits paid are less. How often have we considered that the price and pace of production there is really the result of forced labor in camps with conditions that are inhumane? And that ethnic minorities, political dissidents and others not in step with the autocratic regime in Beijing, not criminals, are forced to work 20 hour days to make our stuff. Amelia Pang, author of 'Made in China: A Prisoner, an SOS Letter and the Hidden Cost of America's Cheap Goods' makes us consider the amazing human toll that it takes to satisfy our desire to save a few bucks at high and low end retailers alike. She also provides ways that we can work to end these abuses one consumer at a time.
https://media.blubrry.com/america_trendscom/p/content.blubrry.com/america_trendscom/Amelia_Pang123.mp3
EP 453 Poverty in America is Poorly Understood
https://www.amazon.com/Poorly-Understood-America-Wrong-Poverty/dp/0190881380
America loves to tell itself fables about many things. For instance, the issue of poverty is often thought of as an issue of 'them' not 'us'. Yet over an adult lifetime, owing to divorce, job loss or health calamity, over half of us will experience poverty for a year or more. We have so many other things wrong about poverty–its color, the reasons for it and whether as a society, we are helpless to fight it. Going back to Lyndon Johnson's 'War on Poverty' in the 1960's we have told ourselves that it was a failure. It wasn't. Without programs like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, for example, the poverty level of seniors in America, would skyrocket from present levels. In their book 'Poorly Understood: What America Gets Wrong About Poverty', co-authors Mark Rank, Lawrence Eppard and Heather Bullock, correct our misconceptions one by one and in empircal and convincing fashion. Mark Rank is our guest today and will provide insights that each of us should understand about poverty, the minimum wage debate and income in equality in 2021 America.
https://media.blubrry.com/america_trendscom/p/content.blubrry.com/america_trendscom/Mark_Rank123.mp3
EP 452 Marijuana Laws Changing Across America
https://norml.org/
It may seem like marijuana laws across the country have been changing almost overnight, but according to our guest, Paul Armentano, deputy director of NORML, a group that has long sought these changes, it's been about a fifty year process. We are a long way from 'Reefer Madness' and Cheech and Chong, as we see red and blue states de-criminalize marijuana, provide dispensaries for medical marijuana and, in many cases, legalize its recreational use. Much of this goes hand and hand with criminal justice reform as overly harsh punishments for use of marijuana are taken off the books. Corresponding with that, many states are being to expunge the records of those who have been convicted in the past. We talk to Paul about the impacts when states legalize pot as to driving safety, the black market and use by those who live there. It's high time we looked at this trend and its impact | 2,350 |
More than just the art of heading outside with a shotgun and a mission, hunting is a way of life for some. If you have plans to go out hunting, you already know about the basics.
Camouflage clothes, plenty of ammo and your trusty rifle are all you need, right? If you plan on bringing a hunting buddy along, you'll need a way to stay connected.
If you don't have them already, you need to check out the best two-way radios for hunting. It's ideal for those times when you get separated from your partner and you've found something interesting and want them to come to join you.
Discover more about why walkie talkies are an important part of hunting with a friend and see which ones match your needs. With all the available models on the market, you're sure to find one that's just right for the both of you.
Here's a list of the best hunting radios. If you're looking for extra help before your big trip, one of these is sure to meet your needs.
Hunting walkie-talkies aren't like ones you'd buy for every-day use. Since hunting involves staying down and remaining as quiet as possible, it's important that your gear follows suit.
You don't want to give yourself away when you're in the middle of finding an animal. Depending on what you hunt, certain animals have an intense vision, making it easy for them to spot you unless you conceal yourself well.
The GXT1050VP4 has a camo color that coordinates well with clothing. With this walkie-talkie, you can talk to your partner in a whisper, and still get heard clearly.
This works up to 36 miles away from the other party, allowing you to both hear one another even when you choose the whisper mode. As a bonus, there are five different animal calls, making this a helpful addition to any hunter's arsenal.
You'll get added protection with a three-year warranty, allowing you to get it fixed should a problem occur.
If you're looking for bonus features that deliver throughout the distance, this is the ideal walkie-talkie for you.
If you're looking for a hunting walkie-talkie that's small and sleek, the Motorola Talkabout T465 is the perfect addition to your toolkit. Some of the features it includes make it perfect for hunting.
It's weatherproof, allowing it to work even if you like hunting in the rain. If you're looking for a basic walkie-talkie, this is already programmed, meaning you don't have to do extra work.
With a flashlight built in, you can continue hunting even in the dark or dusk. With a USB charger, you'll get the chance to plug into your car or vehicle and ensure it's ready to go before you start hunting.
It's ideal if you forget an additional flashlight, or just need to take a quick look at something. By having a walkie-talkie that doubles in function, you can free up the room when you go hunting, allowing you to carry everything you need in one easy place.
If you're looking for something small without a lot of bells and whistles, this is the ideal walkie-talkie that sure to help you make the most of your trip. For hunters who choose nighttime or dusk to find their prey, this makes it easy to stay in touch and remain aware of what's going on.
If you want small and compact with all the modern features of today's walkie-talkie, get the Midland LXT500VP. With a range that goes up to 24 miles, you and your partner can cover a wide distance with no worries on staying super close in one area.
This walkie-talkie cancels out background noise, making communication easy when you're trying to stay in touch. With water resistant features, you'll never worry about taking it out in the rain and getting wet.
The LXT500VP comes with batteries and a charging dock, so there's no need to invest money in additional parts. If you're looking for a way to keep it quiet once you've come in contact with the game, there's a silence feature that blocks incoming calls and ensures you haven't lost a potential shot.
Best of all, if you're in the middle of hunting and find yourself running low on power, simply shift into low power mode. You can stay in contact and not worry about missing out on something with your hunting buddy.
Although this is popular with hunters, if you engage in other activities like hiking or biking and don't want to get separated from the rest of your party, you're in luck. This walkie-talkie is ideal for other activities and transitions well no matter where you're going to or what you're doing.
Walkie-talkies that can get used in just about any setting are popular with hunters. If you're still searching for a great model that helps you stay in touch with your party, you can find that in the Cobra ACXT545.
With a USB port, you have options when it comes to charging your walkie-talkies. Thanks to privacy codes, you can keep others from listening to your conversations, which is useful if you're worried about getting hacked.
With weather alerts, you can feel safe no matter where you go. If there's a possible hurricane, thunderstorm, or other problem on the rise, you'll know right away with alerts from this walkie-talkie.
If a call comes through, you can choose<|fim_middle|>, you want a hunting walkie-talkie that doesn't break down the minute it gets wet.
This walkie-talkie can get dropped in the water and still work just fine. If you're worried about other people intercepting your conversation, there are over 100 privacy codes that allow you and your partner to hunt in peace and not worry about anyone else coming into the conversation.
With an LED flashlight, you can take a look at something and feel confident you know what you're seeing if you accidentally lose or forget your normal flashlight. The battery life lasts for 12 hours, allowing you to focus on hunting and not worry about how often you need to charge your walkie-talkie in order to keep in touch with the rest of your party.
For hunters that enjoy fishing, this particular brand of walkie-talkie actually floats when dropped. That means you don't need to worry about searching the bottom of the water to find it if you happen to drop it.
The next time you plan to go fishing or hunting waterfowl, choose this walkie-talkie. You'll feel confident you won't miss out on anything important and have less chance of damaging it than any other model, even when on the water.
If you're looking for the best two-way radios for hunting, there's a variety of options on the market sure to suit your needs. Consider how often you go hunting, the type of terrain you hunt on, and what animals you generally hunt for.
This can help you make the best choice on which type of walkie-talkie to add to your collection. Today's modern walkie-talkie offers features like weather alerts, covers a wide variety of miles, and can even withstand some (or a lot) of water.
Finding the right technology to match your needs is tricky, but you don't have to do it on your own. Let us help you find the right radios, walkie-talkies, or other electronic equipment for your lifestyle.
Check out our website and see what brands come as the top suggested items to buy. No matter what you're looking for, there's sure to be something that meets your needs and is an upgrade from what you currently have.
Contact us today, and learn more about what we can do to help you find the best and most advanced technology. | to go to vibrate mode when you're in the middle of hunting. With a hardshell design, there's no need to worry about dropping your device, since it's meant to hold up to the ground or pavement while in the outdoors.
With a variety of options to help you no matter what you're doing, you'll find this useful no matter what you plan to do.
If you're hunting with friends, you know that going long-distance in the field is something that commonly happens. Depending on the type of game you're looking for, it's easy to cover and get separated by long distances.
This walkie-talkie helps you stay in touch and offers other helpful features, such as weather alerts. This is useful if you find yourself in the middle of nowhere and need to seek coverage right away.
If you've run into your game, you can put the walkie-talkie on vibrate right away. The sound quality is clear, allowing you to easily hear what's said. If you're constantly moving around, from hiking to climbing in a tree stand, you'll feel confident knowing you won't lose your walkie-talkie.
That's because it fits simply in your pockets, meaning there's no annoying clip to deal with. Walkie-talkie clips are known for breaking off or getting lost easily.
Avoid the problems associated with a traditional walkie-talkie, and check this one out if you need an option that makes it simple to store and even easier to communicate with, no matter what's going on.
Hunting in the mountains is a different kind of feat, and it's not easy to maintain a clear connection when doing so. Although different animals are easier to run into when you're scouring the mountains, keeping in touch with your partner is a lot harder.
If you plan to hike in an area with mountains and other hard-to-reach places, the Midland GXT1000VP4 can help make your next hunting trip a success. With call options for different animals, there are features that allow you to put incoming calls on vibrate and even silence, depending on how close you find yourself to the animal you're trying to catch.
Like many other radios, this offers weather alerts. This might seem run of the mill, but if you're trying to stay safe while hunting, you'll realize how important this is. If you or your partner get in the middle of an accident, you'll have a way to get in touch with one another and seek help.
Although this walkie-talkie can go up to 36 miles, it's important to realize that crowded forest areas won't allow for as much distance. Keep this in mind when hunting.
If you and your partner find yourselves across wide-open plains, you don't need to worry about staying close by. If you're near lots of trees or dense coverage, keep this in mind and work around it when you're out hunting together.
With modern features and built for various terrain, you'll feel comfortable no matter where you and your partner head together.
While most hunters go for larger animals like deer, bear, and moose, the tables turn if you find yourself hunting waterfowl or fishing. Many birds possess keen eyesight, making it harder to camouflage yourself.
For this reason, you need to check out the Cobra CXT 1045R. Since hunting waterfowl often means getting near (or in) ponds, marshes, and other bodies of water | 704 |
With Hurricane Michael swirling toward the Gulf Coast, property valued in excess of $13.4 billion is at risk of storm damage, according to an analysis by CoreLogic released Tuesday.
The property analytics provider found that over 57,000 homes are in the path of the storm, which is scheduled to hit Florida by Wednesday afternoon. Currently a Category 2 storm, weather forecasters predict Hurricane Michael will reach Category 3 status by landfall and<|fim_middle|> land when the hurricane moves onshore," the report reads.
Located at the tip of the Florida Gulf, the Crestview-Fort Walton metropolitan area bears the highest risk of storm-related property damage; thousands of homes in Florida's Panama City and Tallahassee are also at risk.
While Hurricane Michael is not likely to have the scope of last month's Hurricane Florence or last year's Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, it still poses significant risk to homeowners. Experts advise those who are in the storm's path to have an evacuation plan, close storm shutters to prevent broken glass from flying inside, unplug big electronic appliances such as fridges and televisions and keep phones charged in case of power outages. | bring with it torrential rains and winds of more than 110 miles per hour.
"Hurricane-driven storm surge can cause significant property damage when high winds and low pressure cause water to amass inside the storm, releasing a powerful rush over | 50 |
So, haunting my short-term memories has been the second song in my Morning and Night<|fim_middle|>'s saving the most unlikely people when they least expect it, the joke in which God laughs with man and man with God" (pg. 72). | series. Telling Truths is based on the book, Telling the Truth: the Gospel as tragedy, comedy, and fairy tale. This was actually the first Buechner book that I picked up years ago. It's a short book with pretty simple themes – which hold great depth. I read through the book in one sitting while visiting my parents (where I found the book). Then, I sat and pondered what I just experienced. Then I opened the book back up and savored ever word. Buechner does such a masterful job at not only conveying truths, but in drawing you into landscapes and conversations, and familiar places and memories that you've stored away and forget you've had. While, in many ways the song does summarizing of the general concept, the only thing to do it any justice is reading the book yourself. I highly recommend it.
"Every person has one particular time in his life when he is more beautiful than he is ever going to be again" (pg. 29).
"Jesus shares with us the darkness of what it is to be without God as well as showing forth the glory of what it is to be with God" (pg. 42).
"From the divine perspective, I suspect that it is the tragic that is seen as not inevitable whereas it is the comic that is bound to hapen. The comedy of God | 281 |
Monk's House – Virginia Woolf's Country Cottage
House Crazy Sarah would be remiss if she didn't do a feature on Monk's House – Virginia Woof's former English country home and gardens.
There's something special in common about early twentieth century female writers: they had to have their bucolic county escapes – Beatrix Potter, Edna St. Vincent Millay.
Virginia Woolf was part of this club as well. Monk's House is a 16th-century weatherboard cottage in the village of Rodmell, three miles south of Lewes, in East Sussex, England.
Virginia and her husband Leonard Woolf went here to escape the hustle and bustle of London life, and also to garden and to entertain friends.
The couple bought the house at auction on July 1st, 1919 for 700 pounds. Their frequent guests included literary folks connected to the Bloomsbury Group, including T. S. Eliot, E. M. Forster, Roger Fry, and Lytton Strachey.
Here is the street-side view of the home<|fim_middle|>athed to his close friend, the artist Trekkie Parsons, who subsequently sold it to the University of Sussex in 1972. It was eventually turned over to the National Trust in 1980, and was opened to the public as a museum and tribute to the literary couple.
The entire ground floor, including sitting room, dining room, kitchen and Virginia's bedroom, is on display.
Have a look inside Virginia's bedroom:
House Crazy Sarah loves how Virginia was married but had her own bedroom.
Look at all the beautiful books!
Notice the vintage sink and herringbone wood floors? Delightful!
There are hardly any photos of the kitchen at Monk's house, but House Crazy Sarah did find a couple:
The kitchen door leading out to the marvelously lush garden…
Mind Your Head!
The Monk's House gardens were – and still are – beautifully maintained.
Virginia loved the respite at Monk's House from the tumult of London and the war. She claimed a small wooden cabin at the bottom of the garden to be her quiet writing cottage.
It still stands today and is set up just as Virginia left it.
Isn't it splendid?
No need for electricity here. Just fresh air, open windows and pen and paper.
House Crazy Sarah can feel Virginia's gentle ghost watching over this lovely place. 🙂
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monk%27s_House
www.nationaltrust.org.uk/monks-house
Monk's House East Sussex, Virginia Woolf's country house, Virginia Woolf's Monk's House, writer's houses
The Repurposed 1875 Walnut Exchange Bank Building in Walnut, Iowa
A 1928 Spanish Revival in Los Angeles
2 thoughts on "Monk's House – Virginia Woolf's Country Cottage"
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The National Trust now operates the building as a writer's house museum.
During the Woolfs' early years here, Monk's House was smaller with three-quarters of an acre of gardens including an orchard and some outbuildings.
But throughout the duration of their ownership, the Woolf's made many alterations and additions, including: improvements to the kitchen; the installation of an indoor bathroom; and a two-storey extension in 1929. In 1928 they purchased an adjoining field to preserve the beautiful views from the garden.
Have a look inside the main house…
Virginia said that with each of her published books, she was able to afford do fixes or renovations to her country home.
The historic home is furnished with period pieces and many of the Woolf's own belongings.
Gorgeous exposed beams and original tile-brick floors. It's so sweet and old-world charm-y; you can just tell that writers lived here!
The Woolfs spent an increasing amount of time at Monk's House and eventually ended up living there full-time from 1940 on when their flat in Mecklenburgh Square, Bloomsbury, London, was damaged during a Second World War air raid.
Virginia wrote many of her best known novels while staying here such as: Mrs Dalloway (1925), To The Lighthouse (1927), Orlando (1928), The Waves (1931), The Years (1937) and Between The Acts (1941).
Unfortunately Virginia's creative demons got the best of her and in true tragic writer fashion, she committed suicide by drowning herself in the nearby River Ouse in March of 1941.
Her husband Leonard continued to live at Monk's House until his death in 1969.
After Leonard's death the house was beque | 380 |
Share this Story: Responding to COVID19 impacts: Council creates specialized task forces
Responding to COVID19 impacts: Council creates specialized task forces
Lindsay Morey
On May 5, Strathcona County council approved the creation of three task forces to respond to the various challenges COVID-19 has on both residents and businesses. Lindsay Morey/News Staff/File
Three new groups have been set up by Strathcona County council to support and guide the local recovery process related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
At the May 5 regular council meeting, elected officials unanimously approved the creation of three task forces in three areas:
Responding to COVID19 impacts: Council creates specialized task forces Back to video
Governance. This group will provide strategic advice to council to ensure Strathcona County's coordinated response, recovery, and resilience during and after pandemic.
Economic resilience. This group will provide governance recommendations and advice to council on economic resilience and vision in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, support for business and industry, and support for the local economy generally.
Citizen and community support: This group will provide advice to council related to supporting the wellbeing of citizens and community groups and provide information to ensure Strathcona County's coordinated response, recovery and resilience during and after COVID-19.
Mayor: "This gives us a vehicle to look these difficult issues in the eye and plan for the future."
"It is in the best interest of the county that, as councillors and mayor, we look to the future… It will allow councillors to roll up their sleeves and take a leadership role," said Mayor Rod Frank. "This gives us<|fim_middle|> advise the groups. Each group would be funded with $50,000 each to bring in consultants and experts to help the task forces with their work.
Ward 2 Coun. Dave Anderson voted against first reading of the motion to create the committees, citing his displeasure with the lack of direct resident and business involvement, as well as the dollar amount connected with the groups. He suggested the task forces "won't have much bite to it." Ultimately, he did support second and third reading of the bylaw.
"I'm really uncomfortable with this actually. The way that I thought this would originally work would be a committee of local business people and local Family and Community Services people and we'd be there to guide the conversation. I'm not sure that I'm excited about three councillors being huddled off in a group together with a $50,000 fund to utilize," Anderson said.
"There have been huge discussions around how we're going to save money. To put $150,000 into this when we're already wondering when we're going to make up the cost differences, I think is unfair to our residents," he added.
Interim CAO Kevin Glebe confirmed the funding of $50K for each task force can be taken from the previous $2-plus million approved by council for the Emergency Management Advisory Committee to respond to COVID-19. It was clarified passing this bylaw does not allocate funding, that would have to be done separately.
"It allows us to get some deep thinking and individuals involved that can spur conversation. We can't be just focused on the short term, we have to look at the mid and long term also. This is going to be very hard work and this allows this work to happen," responded the mayor about the funding concerns.
Councillor appointments
During the May 12 meeting, council unanimously approved which councillors will serve on what task force, which is as follows;
• Botterill, Parks and Tonita will serve one term on the Economic Resilience and Vision Task Force;
• Berghofer, Delainey, and Lawrence will serve one term on the Citizen and Community Support Task Force; and,
• Anderson, Parks and Smith will serve one term on the Governance Advisory Recovery Task Force.
Administration will also be required to provide information to all of these task forces on potential facilitations that could support the initial work plans of the groups before it goes to council for approval.
lmorey@postmedia.com
twitter.com/LindsayDMorey | a vehicle to look these difficult issues in the eye and plan for the future. There's no doubt there are short term issues that we need to deal with; we need to deal with public health and we've been dealing with economic aid for citizens, but we also have to be looking forward in these key areas in the months and years ahead."
Legislative and Legal Services director Mavis Nathoo confirmed these task forces are meant to act as leaders at the policy level and administration will carry out those directions at the operational level.
"The task forces will want to create a legislative and policy environment that will best facilitate the recovery and that will maintain the good that has come out of this pandemic; the connectedness and the community that is coping together," said Nathoo.
Task forces will provide advice and recommendations to council for vision and strategy considerations to support immediate stabilization initiatives and short, medium and long term strategies to support the local economy, including addressing barriers to business and ensuring the optimal environment for business retention and supporting the sustainability and wellness of the county's business and industry communities.
The groups will broadly engage industry and business leaders, organizations, economic experts, agricultural organizations, and citizens, undertake scenario planning, and access advice from council's advisory committees to understand the impact of COVID-19 on the economy and to apply the knowledge gained to make recommendations to council.
"This is an opportunity for us to step forward and say we need to be planned and deliberate in thinking about the future and what it could look like as opposed to letting it happen to us. We're taking the lead here," said Coun. Bill Tonita.
Each task force could tap into $50K for consultants
The groups will be comprised of three councillors and the mayor. Sub-task force volunteer members can also | 355 |
Meet Brad Hudson. If you haven't yet heard of him, "Next New Heartbreak," his first solo release, is a solid first impression. A North Carolina native, Hudson is no newcomer. He has worked alongside veteran musicians, such as Lorraine Jordan and Carolina Road and the great Dolly Parton, while currently a member of Sideline. As a vocalist and multi-instrumentalist, Hudson stands shoulder to shoulder with the best whether on guitar, bass or Dobro. "Next New Heartbreak" is a solid platform for Hudson to take command and showcase his many talents.
Having self-produced, Hudson shaped a dynamic bluegrass experience. "Ramblers Song" and "Hugging The Hound," an instrumental, showcase hot picking and masterful instrumentation. Conversely, "Smoky Mountain Strong," a fantastic tune about the resilience of those affected by the Tennessee wildfires, as well as "My One and Only (Crystal's Song)" an instrumental tribute to his wife, show Hudson's heartfelt side. Even "Beulah Land" features a short sampling of Hudson singing with his Grandma Betty, to whom the album is dedicated. "Next New Heartbreak" is a work of passion.
Many times, the key to a standout-recording project is having talented friends to help out and throw in their two cents, leaving "Next New Heartbreak" with pennies rolling around everywhere. Steve Dilling's banjo<|fim_middle|>. Rehearsing and getting music together for this year is gonna be a blast. Be sure to check out our tour dates and come see a show near you..
On the verge of an exciting year with a brand new solo album release with Pinecastle Records burning up the bluegrass airwaves, Brad Hudson looks forward to many firsts in his career.
This month he will be visiting the Bonfire Recording Studio, the home of Pinecastle Records, in South Carolina to film some video to assist in promotion of the new record, "Next New Heartbreak",as well as hold auditions at the studio to fill remaining slots in his band for 2018.
We're excited to announce that Brad Hudson will be following his heart and pursuing a lifelong dream in the coming year. Bluegrass after all, is built on dreams and our love of music, our family and our Faith. All things that Brad is very strong in.
Brad Hudson, reso-guitarist with Sideline, has signed with Pinecastle Records for a new project which will feature both his vocal and instrumental prowess. | , Skip Cherryholmes' guitar, Ron Stewart's fiddle and even Parton's voice, gladly contributed pocket change to the cause. Having a hand in nearly every aspect in it's creation, whether in writing, singing or playing, "Next New Heartbreak" is clearly Hudson's own.
With such natural talent and versatility, a strong musical background and willing friends, Hudson's recording is an enjoyable, and memorable solo debut.
Brad Hudson's Next New Heartbreak is his first solo release, and the results here would indicate that this debut is not any too soon. Hudson sings lead and harmony on all but one vocal cut and plays resonator guitar, and he does an excellent job on both. His lead vocals are the highpoint of this very fine CD, one which features an impressive lineup with Steve Dilling on banjo and harmony vocals, Skip Cherryholmes on guitar and harmony vocals, Jason Moore on upright bass, and Aaron Ramsey on mandolin and guitar.
Hudson's singing is powerful yet smooth, with the kind of compelling expressive quality one would hear in Russell Moore or the late James King. Whether it's Daniel Salyer's barn-burning "Rambler's Song" featuring guest Ron Stewart on banjo and fiddle, Loretta Lynn's soulful "World Of Forgotten People," or singing to Dolly Parton's stirring harmony on her fine "Appalachian Memories," it seems Brad Hudson can do it all. Simply put, this is the best "new" voice I've heard in bluegrass for quite some time.
There is a nice selection of material with plenty of variety. (Though one could argue that as good as the vocals and instrumental work are here, almost anything would sound good.) Additional cuts include two from Clyde Mattock, the instrumental "Hugging The Hound" and "I Wonder What You See In Your Dreams." Jeff and Sheri Easter contribute vocals on "Beulah Land" (although the lead sounds a lot like Hudson). And Hudson does a very nice job on "Smoky Mountain Strong," co-written with Mark Brinkman in honor of those who fought the fires in Sevier County, Tenn., in 2016. Tom Paxton's "I Can't Help But Wonder Where I'm Bound" gets an excellent bluegrass treatment, and the title-cut is a great new "broken heart" tune in a genre that can't seem to ever get enough.
The support for the vocals is uniformly excellent throughout. Harmonies by Dilling and Cherryholmes are topnotch. The instrumental work is first-rate and, in particular, Hudson's resonator guitar work is very tasteful, reminiscent of Mike Auldridge and Jerry Douglas. Besides having a voice that will be the envy of everyone within earshot, Hudson appears to have an acute sense of how this music should fit together that would seem to take decades of experience to develop. And though they are not credited, whoever did the mix and master (Skip Cherryholmes engineered) did an exceptional job—the sound is perfectly balanced and clear throughout.
Brad and gang is super excited to be performing at the NC State Fair on Friday Oct. 19th. This is a great honor..
Whats even a bigger honor is Brad was asked to perform our National Anthem that morning to start off the day at the NC State Fair.. Wow he is super excited to do this. Make sure to make plans to attend this year..
Nothing Could Be Finer than to be Apart of this great event..
Gearing Up For our first weekend out!!
Brad and the guys are excited to be getting ready for next weekend in Sevierville, TN @ Blooming BBQ and Bluegrass. Also looking forward to being at Robs Bluegrass Barn in Westminster MD .. A fun time will be had for sure . if your close by come be with them..
Brad and the guys are getting all geared up for 2018 | 798 |
The Roemer Report August 1985
TRUCKING AND TBIGGER EXPENSES SQUEEZE PROFITS: HE SATURN PROJECT:
Trucking industry trends generally mirror U.S. economic activity. So when the ailing economy finally energized In '83, we were exuberant about the future. Indeed, industry tonnage and revenues have increased handsomely. Last year's combined gains were estimated at 5%. The Commerce Dept. forecasts an even brighter outlook for '85. Yet many carriers still find their bottom line in the red. The reason: rapid expense growth. I.C.C.-regulated motor carriers reported 1984 expenses about 3% ahead of revenues. These costs tell into three key categories…(1) Fixed operating expenses. State fuel taxes, permit fees, etc. surged higher last year.
Employee benefits also represented a bigger buck for carriers…
(2) Overhead costs. in an industry-wide push toward diversity, firms spent heavily to beef up service and improve communications. Sales and marketing activities also accelerated.(3) Interest expenses. Rising interest rates reflected substantial investments In tractor and trailer purchases last year. Similar outlays for facility expansion and improvements also boosted the interest quotient…is there an "up" side to this profit squeeze? Our answer is yes. Motor carriers are rapidly gaining the cutting-edge expertise needed to manage their revolutionized market. Service and equipment support will be in place to exploit the results. We believe many of these expenditures will eventually pay back in profits.
ESCAPING THE ERISA SNARE: Two questions: Why would hundreds of chronically unprofitable motor carriers continue to operate year after year? What makes it financially advantageous for these carriers to stay in business, even at a loss? Answer to both: The Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA). This multi-employer pension plan inflicts such a heavy financial liability for withdrawal that ailing carriers cannot afford to give up the fight. They're driven to hauling loads at rock-bottom prices -- Just to stay in the game. It's the "one bad apple spoils the whole bunch" scenario, as below-cost pricing spreads to other lower-echelon carriers, forcing them to compete with ERISA victims. Eventually, suppressed pricing hurts nearly everyone in the industry.
Legislative reform of ERISA could help syphon off terminally ill carriers. But it's a poor bet for the near future. Since ERISA is applied across diverse industries, tell-swoop legislative solutions are highly unlikely. Major revisions will take time. Still an ERISA escape provision would let the dying die gracefully, and the strong survive -- with much needed pricing stability.
A CAUTION LIGHT FOR STEEL HAULERS: In the depressed steel industry, management-labor unrest has been simmering for some time. Last month it reached a boiling point at Wheeling Pittsburgh. The seventh largest U.S. steel producer filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings, then imposed an 18 wage and-benefit reduction on steelworkers. Employees walked out at all nine plants. As<|fim_middle|> inflation, U.S. consumers are enjoying a trim 3.5% annual price rise. Forecasters claim the rest of the 80s will remain stable. But there are rumblings in the business sector, where disinflation is creating a backlash. Corporate profits are painfully sluggish, as the skyrocketing prices of the 70s slow to a snail's pace. The budget deficit, with sustained high interest rates, has done its share of damage. In turn, the dollar remains strong and the import glut puts competitive pressures on U.S. industry. Deregulation adds fuel to the fire, squeezing prices and profits. To buoy profits, managers are ruthlessly re-trenching -- often trimming staffs and salaries. The remedies affect every business phase, from design to production to marketing. A tougher stance on productivity mandates major investments in labor-saving equipment. Many firms now depend on product diversification to desensitize prices…In times of high inflation, corporate debt for expansion can be covered with ever-cheaper dollars. The reverse is true during deflation. Shrinking today's debt-to-capitalization ratio is expensive, thanks to the mighty dollar. But most executives believe their earlier investments will buy a badly needed competitive edge. While few would wish for a return to high inflation, disinflation could alter business basics throughout this decade.
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Quote Request » | each day of the strike edges Wheeling Pitt closer to financial disaster, steel producers wonder if this is a sign of things to come. Are we headed toward Industry-wide upheaval? Many plants are gearing up for contract negotiations next year. Expect management to seek wage concessions like those at Wheeling-Pitt. Steel industry strikes could spread like wildfire, insiders predict. The effect on steel carriers es likely to be profound. With competition for declining tonnage already at cut-throat levels, extended production delays could force many carriers out of business. Steel producers would eventually foot the bill -- a genuine no-win situation… Most steel haulers are small carriers, located near production facilities. If they fold, transportation costs will soar. What can steel carriers do to prevent extinction? Bill Rieck, vice president of the Specialized Carrier and Rigging Assn., suggests diversifying. Hauling less volatile commodities could help a carrier stabilize his operation. The shaky future of steel may offer few other choices.
SATURN AND THE TRUCKING INDUSTRY: Forget all the hoopla you've heard about GM's Saturn plant and the high profile sales pitches created by the states courting the facility. In the end, Tennessee got the plant because of the fundamentals…pure and simple. There are some strategic points here for fleet owners. The first: transportation costs were a pivotal reason behind the choice of Tennessee. Another key element: GM planners calculated that the U.S. population has shifted further south. Their figures show that 76% of the U.S. population is within 500 miles of the plant. According to Saturn President William E. Hoglund, low freight costs were the most important economic factor in the selection. It should be noted that Nissan located in Smyrna, Tennessee five years ago. Manufacturers love the work ethic of Tennesseans. The upshot? Some are beginning to talk about Tennessee as an emerging little Detroit. Look for a host of suppliers to locate there also. It's going to be a big and growing source of freight. Finally, it suggests that the vortex of manufacturing-oriented trucking could be heading south.
MANAGING OPPORTUNITY: If asked to state their job title, very few business leaders would say "Manager of Opportunity." Yet, according to Geoffrey Place, vice president of R&D at Procter & Gamble, that is precisely the role of every corporate futurist. Markets are in constant state of flux -- and the pace of today's market shifts is quickening. Hence, a company's leaders must be able to identify and develop opportunities that promise a competitive edge.Place cites two basic approaches to opportunity management…(1) Existing opportunities. Fairly easy to uncover and exploit, these pivot on current market conditions. They generally involve clear, short-term objectives and minimal risk. Beware of "band-aid" solutions, however. Historically, companies faced with market crises have often scrambled for the fast but terminal response. (2) Future opportunities. In most cases, these do not occur as natural extensions of present conditions. Rather, they are the barely predictable outcome of many evolutionary forces -- technology, politics, economics, arts, etc. The keen business visionary can interpret, though not control, them. Armed with an understanding of the company's long-range goals, he/she can track and intersect emerging market trends…Managing future opportunities, says Place, is hitting "a moving business target.11
LIVING WITH DISINFLATION: After years of double-digit | 715 |
Q: Insert £ before number This whole problem has come up because our data input people are useless. We have a form for adding items to a database, and one of the fields is a price. The format is something like lowest - highest (lowest<|fim_middle|>£22(£10-20), so my idea is when I'm bringing back the data, remove any £ sign in there, and re add them all, so they will all look the same.
I'm guessing to do this I will need some sort of RegEx to match something, but I'm not sure what the pattern would be.
Can anyone help me figure out what RegEx I'd need to use?
A: If your regex flavour supports lookarounds you could use the expression:
£?(?<!\d)(\d+)
and use the following as the replacement:
£\1
This should work fine in PHP
You could also use this expression if you expect the price to contain commas and full-stops
£?(?<![0-9,.])(\d+)
A: A simpler solution would be to provide a drop down with a list of currency symbols. That way the addition of the symbol is obvious to the users.
You can still add an expression, could replace all non-numeric characters and allow a single dot character and many commas.
You could also user javascript to restrict the entered characters, but provide server side validation/modification anyway.
A: You can simply do this:
$result = preg_replace('~£?(\d+)~', '£$1', '11-£22(£10-20)');
| without 10% fee - highest without 10% fee), e.g. 11 - 22 (10 - 20)
The problem is the people adding this data are REALLY inconsistent with adding the pound sign, so some are like 11- | 58 |
Q: How to identify which element was double clicked inside a ListBox? I have a listbox. The listbox DataTemplate consists of few Text Blocks and some TextBoxes.
The issue is on mouse double click I need to find out on which element the double click was done, so as to do some further operations like make the TextBox editable and so on. At the same time I need to define some action for list double click also. So I can't handle mouse down separately for each component.
Hence, I need to handle the mouse down for the ListBox and find out on which element the double click was made.
I tried with below code, but it returns the ListBox's Name instead of TextBox's Name:
private void myListBox_OnPreviewMouseDoubleClick(object sender, MouseButtonEventArgs e)
{
var mouseWasDownOn = e.Source as FrameworkElement;
if (mouseWasDownOn != null)
{
string elementName = mouseWasDownOn.Name;
}
}
I have also tried as per below questions
WPF Get Element(s) under mouse
How to know what control the mouse has clicked in a canvas?
Getting the Logical UIElement under the mouse in WPF
public void ListBox_MouseDownHandler(object sender, MouseButtonEventArgs e)
{
HitTestResult target = VisualTreeHelper.HitTest(myListBoxName, e.Get<|fim_middle|>FromIndex(lstBox.SelectedIndex));
ContentPresenter contentPresenter = FindVisualChild<ContentPresenter>(ListBoxItem);
DataTemplate myDataTemplate = contentPresenter.ContentTemplate;
StackPanel temp = (StackPanel)myDataTemplate.FindName("myStackPanel", contentPresenter);
//*so as to do some further operations like make the textbox editable and so on* as you want
(temp.FindName("field1TextBox") as TextBox).IsReadOnly = false;
}
Based on your question that you said: The listbox's DataTemplate consists of few TextBlock and some TextBoxes. (I assumed they are inside a StackPanel)
| Position(myListBoxName));
while(!(target is Control) && (target != null))
{
target = VisualTreeHelper.GetParent(target);
}
}
But still could not find a solution. Hence please help me to get the element type or element name from double click.
A: You can use FrameworkTemplate.FindName Method (String, FrameworkElement) for this purpose and it should works as you want:
private childItem FindVisualChild<childItem>(DependencyObject obj) where childItem : DependencyObject
{
for (int i = 0; i < VisualTreeHelper.GetChildrenCount(obj); i++)
{
DependencyObject child = VisualTreeHelper.GetChild(obj, i);
if (child != null && child is childItem)
return (childItem)child;
childItem childOfChild = FindVisualChild<childItem>(child);
if (childOfChild != null)
return childOfChild;
}
return null;
}
Then:
private void LstBox_OnPreviewMouseDoubleClick(object sender, MouseButtonEventArgs e)
{
ListBoxItem ListBoxItem = (ListBoxItem)(lstBox.ItemContainerGenerator.Container | 237 |
Style is a way to<|fim_middle|> line of your personal limit in order to discover yourself because You Only Live Once. | say who you are, without having to speak. It should be unique for yourself, and yet identifiable for others. It reflects your attitude and personality. It's not about age, it's about taste, and it's about lifestyle. YOLO is a brand which speaks about you, your spirit, showcases the vibrancy of life. Bags and Juttis from YOLO reflects a way of living. This stylish, trendy, quirky, fun, and fashionable brand is available in different categories and materials, to suit your need and requirements of your day to day life.
It is said that the bag you carry, be it a handbag, sling bag, satchel, hobo, or a laptop sleeve, which we offer you, is like your home during the day. It is one of our most intimate possessions, an item which we carry close to ourselves, in our daily lives. The bag which you selectively purchase, symbolises your personal space and identity. The new designs of this iconic brand will surely enhance your personality, giving glamour, charm and lustre to a fashionable you, as life is too short to wear boring bags!
The trendy Juttis offered by us, are a unconventional mix of traditional ethnic and modern style combined into one, forming the quintessential accessory, with vibrant color, design and beauty, giving a royal touch in your daily life. Becoming a fashion statement to this generation, they are available in several designs and print variations. A women's footwear speak louder than words. A fashionable Jutti from YOLO, will transform your shoe wardrobe, giving elegance, grace, and poise to your chic personality. Always remember that a girl with the correct footwear can conquer the world!
It is about crossing the | 354 |
Knee Hab. Injury prevention and performance enhancement.
Knee injury exercise and prevention has come a long way over the past 15 years since the first ACL prevention program was published in 1999 by Hewitt et al, with many clubs and institutions now including structured strengthening and flexibility programs.
available on how to safely progress athletes or individual's strength and flexibility, there needs to be a greater emphasis on how to educate quality movement patterns. Many young athletes are susceptible to injuries due to a lack of awareness of how to move well.
Active Bodies (NE HAB) program. NE HAB is a means of providing internal (self-directed) and external (coach or therapist-directed) feedback and encouraging the athlete to assess their own technique to improve performance and reduce the likelihood of injury.
NE HAB consists of four phases of five different exercises focused on improving the athlete's knee function and quality of movement. The NE HAB program is incorporated to educate the athlete about correct landing, cutting, running, hopping, and jumping techniques, neuromuscular control, and correct muscle activation; allowing them to assess their own functional performance.
The NE HAB program is easy to facilitate, it is based on effective and proven interventions, and it can be modified to suit the needs of the team, club or individual. NE HAB can be conducted by a coach, therapist, or instructor at regular intervals to provide feedback on technique and areas to develop. This program is designed to teach the athlete about how to effectively recruit specific muscles such as lower fibers of gluteus maximus, how to avoid dynamic knee valgus, and how to critique their own jumping, landing and cutting patterns. Minimal equipment is required and all athletes are provided with and taught to use their own scoring<|fim_middle|> bearing. NWB: Non weight bearing. | sheet to assess and critique their movement patterns.
The initial 2 phases of the program are designed to teach the athlete exercises that will help them to recruit and develop key muscles, which are fundamental to lower limb health. During the third and fourth phase both the athlete and the therapist independently and simultaneously evaluate the athlete's ability to perform functional tasks. By recording and reviewing the athlete performing specific drills and exercises, it is possible not only for the therapist to provide quality feedback, but for the athlete to learn better movement patterns. The NE HAB program will identify which areas athletes are deficient in and provide them with the education they need to overcome these barriers to performance enhancement.
For optimal benefits it is best to have a program tailored specifically to the needs of the individual or team. The program below offers an excellent baseline and many of the principles can be applied to any sporting population that is either at high risk of knee injuries, or would benefit from improved biomechanics. For a personalised approach, please contact Campbell at Health Sense Group.
Tables 1-4 outline exercises involved in each phase. Full videos of each exercise are available here. Tables 5-6 are used to analyse closed kinetic chain (the foot is fixed on the ground) and open kinetic chain exercises (the foot is free to move) in phases 3 and 4. Each exercise is scored out of 10, with a 1 being assigned to each body region for a correct movement pattern and a 0 for a compensatory movement pattern. For any scores less than 10, then athlete and therapist discuss discuss how the athlete can improve their movement patterns.
Cone Jumps Double leg jump with feet together. Jump side to side over cones quickly. Repeat forward and backward.
Single Leg Squat Stand on one leg with arms crossed. Squat down to 90 then return to start position.
Star Excursion Balance Test Stand tall, hands on hips, mid-foot on centre of star. The athlete reaches as far forwards as they can without touching the foot down, then posterior medially, then posterior laterally.
Single Leg Cone Jumps Single leg hop side to side over cones quickly. Repeat forward and backward.
WB: Weight | 443 |
There are few clearer examples of the need to combine high-tech solutions to development issues with the reality of problems as experienced and perceived on the ground than the challenge of designing an international strategy to combat malaria.
One of the major difficulties facing those who promote the greater use of science and technology in development is the management of expectations. Promise too little — or wait for a demand that may fail to materialise — and you are unlikely to generate the enthusiasm and imagination needed to persuade sponsors to invest in the necessary long-term research and development.
But promise too much, and you risk generating a backlash against science-based interventions. This can happen either when the promised technological miracle fails to materialise, or when their implementation creates further, unanticipated problems (remember the promise that nuclear power would eventually become 'too cheap to meter').
The solution lies in promoting and pursuing strategies that, on the one hand, acknowledge the central role of science in meeting social needs, but on the other, simultaneously accept the potential limitations of science-based solutions to problems that may have deep and complex social roots.
In other words, strategies are needed that combine the dynamics of science-led innovation with a practical assessment of both the needs that such innovation is seeking to address, and the constraints that social factors — which can be cultural, ethical, political, or even environmental — place on any attempts to resolve them.
Nowhere is the challenge more evident than in designing a global strategy for combating malaria. Over the past few weeks, Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown, has been sketching out the details of a potential multi-billion dollar programme to address such a goal. He is proposing to do this primarily by creating incentives (such as advance purchase guarantees and revised policies on issues like intellectual property) to persuade the private sector to invest in the development of new drugs and vaccines.
The leaders of the world's industrialised nations are likely to be asked to endorse this strategy when they gather for their annual G8 summit meeting in Scotland in July. Central to it is a belief that modern science (and particularly recent advances in genomics and biotechnology) offers an unprecedented promise to solve the world's health problems.
In a speech last week to the Catholic aid agency CAFOD, for example, Brown heaped praise on the success of child health campaigns led by the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization<|fim_middle|>the future in their bones").
And given adequate acknowledgement, the social sciences can map out the most effective strategies for ensuring that these possibilities are put into effect, drawing not only on the work of health and development economists, but those who have, for several decades, been studying the structure of public responses to technological innovations. The challenge lies in combining the two.
The dilemma here is a cultural one — particularly within developed countries — that tends to permeate both scientific communities and aid agencies. Those advocating more science in development strategies are, too frequently, distrustful of social scientists (particularly those whom they see as attempting to legitimise strategies for greater public participation in science-related decisions).
Conversely, advocates for the social sciences can be equally dismissive in their analysis of the potentially beneficial effects of advanced science and the new technologies arising from it. Frequently such individuals place excessive weight on the potentially negative implications of new technologies, and underplay their positive contributions to developing country needs (witness, for example, recent critiques of genetically-modified crops).
The urgency of problems such as malaria, which kills one child in Africa every 20 seconds and currently consumes 40 per cent of the health budget of many developing countries, make it even more important than ever that some way is found of reconciling these two opposing world-views. But it will not be achieved through academic conferences, study groups or research projects; the differences are too deeply entrenched, both socially and intellectually.
Rather it requires engagement by both sides in informed public debate all levels (such as that which can, for example, be provided by the media). And eventually it needs the political imagination to distil this debate into a programme of action that is simultaneously scientifically and socially realistic. That is the challenge that Brown and his colleagues face as they prepare for the G8 meeting in July. And that is the goal by which the outcome of the meeting will be judged. | . "If we could do the same for … research and advance purchasing of drugs to cure malaria and HIV/AIDS, think of the better world we can achieve," he said.
There is, of course, a strong and important element of truth in this belief. As has been frequently argued on this website, one of the weaknesses of many current aid policies is that they underplay the potential contributions of modern science. They also pay insufficient attention to the need for the scientific capacity within developing countries that can enable them to tap into this potential.
In that context, Brown's proposals have, rightly, been widely welcomed, particularly by those in the research community who see them as signalling a significant new commitment to building effective bridges between biomedical research and its application to relatively neglected health problems in the developing world.
But there is a danger in taking this belief too far. Namely that, by focussing excessively on the implementation of 'high-tech' solutions to the problems of malaria, insufficient attention may be paid to less glamorous, but equally important, strategies.
Similarly an enthusiasm for what might be described as 'top-down' approaches — typified, for example, by the search for an effective vaccine — can, unless carefully handled, undermine equally important 'bottom-up' strategies that emphasise the need for better education and information dissemination, improved health delivery systems, and greater public participation in designing implementation strategies.
The dangers are highlighted in an open letter sent to Brown by two prominent health researchers Bob Snow and Nick White (see New vaccines are not the only answer to malaria). They point out that two other approaches could be just as important as novel vaccines in combating malaria.
One is the active promotion of accordable access to promising new anti-malarial drugs such as artemisinin-based combination therapy (a strategy endorsed last year in an important report from the US Institute of Medicine: Saving Lives, Buying Time: Economics of Malaria Drugs in an Age of Resistance). The second is use of insecticide-impregnated bednets that have been shown to reduce the incidence of malaria in some villages by up to 90 per cent.
In each case, argue Snow and White, the technology itself is only half of the answer. The other half lies in the way it is applied. Drugs will only be effective if they can be afforded; the cost of the most widely-available anti-malarial drugs currently on the market is more than many poor families can afford, even where these drugs are being made available at subsidised rates. Similarly the US$3 cost of a bednet may sound low to economists (and even donor agencies); but it still places them outside the reach of many families that need them most.
It is easy enough to say that the solution lies in a balanced portfolio of technical options. This is, indeed, one of the conclusions of Snow and White's arguments. "It is not a question of whether we spend money on vaccine R&D or expanding coverage of bednets and effective drugs — we must spend money on both, but spend it wisely," they write. To which UK Treasury minister Paul Boateng has responded: "we couldn't agree more".
But addressing the issue requires much more than a technologically balanced strategy. Equally important, and far more elusive, is an approach that successfully combines the promise of the natural sciences with the insights of the social sciences. Given adequate support, the natural sciences can set out the exciting technical possibilities ahead, whether for vaccines, for new drugs, or even for improved bednets (scientists have, after all, been described as having " | 719 |
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Border area looks for possible migrant housing in Latvia
Photo: LETA, Evija Trifanova
august 20, 2021, 7:23
Authors: Eng.LSM.lv (Latvian Public Broadcasting), Lāsma Zute (Latvian<|fim_middle|>ovs said.
The ideal option would be a service hotel-type facility that would meet the requirements. In search of the building, ministries and State Real Estate have been addressed.
Mucenieki
Border Guard
Latvian officials seize thousands of cigarettes from Belarus freight trains
Emergency near Latvia-Belarus border could be extended again
Border guard caught smuggling person across Russia-Latvia border
Large flow of migrants at Latvia-Belarus border over Christmas
Latvian-produced military equipment travels to Ukraine
Latvian Navy reveals new uniforms
Smiltēns: Kyiv could help Rīga with civil defense expertise
President looks at 'Black Hawk' helicopters at NBS base
Mūrniece: Latvia has sent 1% of GDP in military aid to Ukraine | Radio)
Ludza, Krāslava, Augšdaugava municipalities and Daugavpils city are asked to search for buildings where border offenders detained on Latvia-Belarus could be housed if necessary, but the search has not succeeded yet, Latvian Radio reported August 20.
In order to address the illegal border crossing crisis that has occurred on the border of Latvia-Belarus, the Ministry of Interior has established an Operational Management Center, which also involves local governments located in the border area. One of the issues currently being addressed is to find a suitable building where border offenders could be housed if necessary. There is still room in the accommodation center for detained foreigners in Daugavpils, but the capacity has been exhausted in the asylum seeker center Mucenieki. It cannot be predicted how the situation will evolve. It is therefore necessary to be prepared for different scenarios.
Since August 10, a total of more than 470 people have been detained for illegally crossing the country's border. For humanitarian reasons, some are not denied entry.
"Today we are talking about 14 people who have been admitted and are at this center. One has been granted asylum-seeker status, with the others, we are still working. There are children and also persons who needed medical treatment," said Interior Ministry spokesman Dimitrijs Trofimovs.
Municipalities have offered schools and other buildings but none have met the criteria yet. The building must have central heating, catering facilities, and the premises must be spacious enough to enable epidemiological safety to be observed. The State Secretary of the Ministry of Interior acknowledged that options are also being examined outside the border area.
"Geographically, it would be more beneficial from a logistical point of view that it is closer to the border, but it is clear that in a situation where, if we do not have the possibility to work in the border area, we will take the situation elsewhere. And then try to understand what it means if this facility is much farther away, how to organize those logistics. At the moment, we have expanded this geography of search," Trofim | 437 |
Poniso Shamakuni has been passionate about nature since childhood, when he joined the wildlife club at his school in Kasane. Today, he's a qualified safari guide. You can find him conducting private guided safaris for<|fim_middle|> birds, and in his spare time enjoys reading, listening to music and playing football. | A&K across the wildlife hot spots of Botswana and Zambia, including the Okavango Delta, Chobe and Moremi. Poniso's calm demeanour and sense of humour always puts our clients at ease.
Poniso Shamakuni was born in Kasane, Botswana. It was at his school's wildlife club that he first discovered his love of nature, and this enthusiasm remained into adulthood. After secondary school, he joined a safari company, passing the guide training programme with flying colours. He has since held posts at Chobe and Moremi National Parks, and self-funded his further training in walking safaris and rifle handling. You will find him leading private guided safaris for A&K in the heart of the Okavango Delta, as well as in Chobe, Moremi and Zambia. Poniso puts clients at ease with his calm manner and warm sense of humour. He has a special interest in | 187 |
Two French soldiers are<|fim_middle|> elections can go ahead in 2005 as planned.
Meanwhile, Ivorian President Laurent Gbagbo has thanked French President Jacques Chirac for the arrest of 10 suspected coup plotters in Paris. The group included Ibrahim Coulibaly, widely suspected to be involved in last year's uprising.
Rumors of a coup plot had circulated in Abidjan for days, leading to a heavier than usual army presence on the city's streets. | reported to have been killed by former rebels in central Ivory Coast. These are the first French deaths since 4,000 troops from that nation were sent to Ivory Coast for peacekeeping duties in the wake of a rebellion in the west African country last September.
After an altercation on a routine patrol in a demilitarized zone, according to French officials, the ex-rebels opened fire on the French soldiers.
The patrol of 25 French troops had been chatting to local fishermen when heavily armed former-rebel fighters began hurling abuse and then shooting at them. French officials claim the ex-rebels, known as the New Forces, were drunk.
French spokesman Colonel Christian Battiste, said the French troops returned fire. But he described it as an isolated incident and said most rebels were cooperating with the peace effort.
Rebels seized half of Ivory Coast in an uprising last year. The demilitarized zone was set up by France to keep rebels in the north of the country away from the commercial and administrative capital, Abidjan, in the south.
Under French guidance, Ivory Coast has embarked on a process of reconciliation. But several stumbling blocks are threatening the process and a disarmament program appears to be some way off.
Last week, Ivorian Prime Minister Seydou Diarra conceded that the peace process was at a standstill over the failure to make appointments to the key posts of defense and security. The former rebels are accusing President Laurent Gbagbo of failing to adhere to the terms of the January 2003 peace deal.
Leaders of the New Forces are questioning whether | 324 |
Rare Book & Special Collections Library
From Alchemy to Chemistry:
Five Hundred Years of Rare and Interesting Books
This website grew out of an exhibit held at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Rare Book Room in April 2000. The Eastern Illinois Section of the American Chemical Society provided support for the construction of this website.
The exhibit, "From Alchemy to Chemistry: 500 Years of Rare and Interesting Books," was co-curated by Tina Chrzastowski (Chemistry Librarian), Vera Mainz (Director, VOICE NMR Lab, School of Chemical Sciences), and Gregory Girolami (Professor of Chemistry).
In the exhibit, the curators tried to convey some of the major shifts in the study of chemistry - not just the movement from alchemy to modern science - but also the way chemists changed the way they talked about their field. One of the themes of the exhibit is how chemists through the ages have used symbols to depict compounds and chemicals - sometimes as secret codes, as with alchemists, sometimes in standardized nomenclature, as with chemists. The exhibit shows how the "standard" nomenclature of chemistry changed many times over the years. See UIUC Press Release for more general information about the exhibit.
The exhibit contained thirty-six books, dating from 1500 to 1964. The links below connect to pages that describe each item and its author, and contain selected images from the pages of the book. Alternatively, you can use the buttonbar to view the exhibit items.
NOTE: The background file for these pages is 325 KB in size. If this causes a substantial delay in loading, the following will link you to a "background-free" exhibit.
BRUNSCHWIG, HIERONYMUS (1450 - c. 1512). Liber de arte distillandi; Das buch der rechten kunst zu distillieren. Strassburg: 1500.
GEBER [Jabir Ibn Hayyan]. Alchemiae Gebri. Bern, 1545.
FLAMEL, NICOLAS (1330 - 1417). His Exposition of the Hieroglyphical Figures - His Secret Booke of the Blessed Stone called the Philosopher's. London, 1624.
PARACELSUS, THEOPHRASTUS PHILIPPUS AUREOLUS BOMBASTUS VON HOHENHEIM (1493 - 1541). Operum Medico-Chimicaorum. 3 vols. Geneva, 1605.
LIBAVIUS, ANDREAS (ca. 1560 - 1616). Alchemia Andreae Libavii. Frankfurt, 1597.
AGRICOLA, GEORG (1494 - 1555). De Re Metallica. Basel, 1556.
BOYLE, ROBERT (1627 - 1691). The Sceptical Chymist: or Chymico-Physical Doubts & Paradoxes. London, 1680.
LEMERY, NICOLAS (1645 - 1715). A Course of Chymistry Containing an easie Method of Preparing those Chymical Medicines Which are Used in Physik. London, 1698.
STAHL, GEORG (1659 - 1734). Opusculum Chymico-Physico-Medicum. Nuremberg, 1715.
MACQUER, PIERRE (1718 - 1784). Dictionnaire de chymie, contenant la théorie & pratique de cette science . . .. 2 vols. Paris, 1766.
BERGMAN, TORBERN (1735 - 1784). Opuscula Physica et Chemica. 6 vols. Uppsala, 1780.
PRIESTLEY, JOSEPH (1733 - 1804). Experiments and Observations on Different Kinds of Air. 3 vols. London, 1775.
SCHEELE, CARL WILHELM (1742 - 1786). Chemical Observations and Experiments on Air and Fire. Uppsala & Leipzig, 1780. Chemische Abhandlung von der Luft und dem Feuer. Nebst einem Vorbericht von Torbern Bergman. Uppsala & Leipzig, 1782.
KIRWAN, RICHARD (1733 - 1812). An Essay on Phlogiston, and the Constitution of Acids. London, 1787.
DE MORVEAU, GUYTON (1737 - 1816); LAVOISIER, ANTOINE LAURENT (1743 - 1794); BERTHOLLET, CLAUDE LOUIS (1748 - 1822); DE FOURCROY, ANTOINE FRANCOIS (1755 - 1809). Méthode de Nomenclature Chimique. Paris, 1787.
LAVOISIER, ANTOINE LAURENT (1743 - 1794). Traité élémentaire de chimie, présenté dans un ordre nouveau et d'après les découvertes modernes. 2 vols. Paris, 1789.
DALTON, JOHN (1766 - 1844). A New System of Chemical Philosophy. 3 vols. Manchester, 1808, 1810, 1827.
MARCET, JANE (1769 - 1858). Conversations on Chemistry. 2nd American Edition. Hartford, Conn., 1809.
VOLTA, ALESSANDRO (1745 - 1827) [CONFIGLIACHI, PIETRO (1777 - 1844)]. L'identità del Fluido Elettrico. 1814.
DAVY, HUMPHRY (1778 - 1829). Elements of Chemical Philosophy. London, 1812.
BERZELIUS, JÖNS JACOB (1779 - 1848). Essai sur la Theorie des Proportions Chimiques. Paris, 1819.
LIEBIG, JUSTUS VON (1803 - 1873). Die Organische Chemie in ihre Anwendung auf Agricultur und Physiologie. Braunschweig, 1840.
FRANKLAND, SIR EDWARD (1825 - 1899). Experimental Researches in Pure, Applied, and Physical Chemistry. London, 1877.
GERHARDT, CHARLES (1816 - 1856). Traité de Chimie Organique. 4 vols. Paris & Leipzig, 1853 - 1856.
YOUMANS, EDWARD LIVINGSTON (1821 - 1887). Chemical Atlas; or, the Chemistry of Familiar Objects: Exhibiting the General Principles of the Science in a Series of Beautifully Colored Diagrams, and Accompanied by Explanatory Essays, Embracing the Latest View of the Subjects Illustrated. New York, 1857.
BUNSEN, ROBERT (1811 - 1899). Gasometrische Methoden. Braunschweig, 1857.
CANNIZZARO, STANISLAO (1826 - 1910). Sunto di un Corso. Pisa, 1858.
BROWN, ALEXANDER CRUM (1838 - 1922). J. Chem. Soc. 1865, 18, 230-245. London, 1865.
KEKULÉ VON STRADONITZ, [FRIEDRICH] AUGUST (1829 - 1896). Chemie der Benzolderivate oder der Aromatischen Substanzen. 3 vols. Erlangen (vol. 1) and Stuttgart (vols. 2-3), 1867-1887.
MENDELEEV, DMITRI IVANOVICH (1834 - 1907). Z. Chem. 1869, 12, 405, WITH Osnovy Khimii, St. Petersburg, 1869.
VAN DER WAALS, JOHANNES DIDERIK (1837 - 1923). Over de Continuiteit van den Gas- en Vloeistoftoestand. Leiden, 1873.
WERNER, ALFRED (1866 - 1919). Neuere Anschauungen auf dem Gebiete der Anorganischen Chemie. Braunschweig, 1905.
CURIE, MARIE (1867 - 1934). Traité de Radioactivité. Paris, 1910.
RUTHERFORD, ERNEST (1871 - 1937). Radioactivity. Cambridge, 1904.
ASTON, FRANCIS WILLIAM (1877 - 1945). Isotopes. London, 1922.
PAULING, LINUS (1901 - 1994), HAYWARD, ROGER. The Architecture of Molecules. San Francisco and London, 1964.
Other Links of Interest:
Rare Book & Special Collections<|fim_middle|> has had . | Library at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Chemistry Library at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Chemical Genealogy Database
This page | 34 |
Home gyms are<|fim_middle|> and paste it on one of your website pages to reference this informative website. We appreciate your consideration.
HomeGyms.us, a division of Zeducorp.
HomeGyms.us is a Chosen Sites™ resource. | featured on the website HomeGyms.us. This web site discusses the equipment needed for a home exercise room; it also defines multi-station home gyms and lists what exercises you can usually do on these gyms. The site includes home gym shopping tips, as well as links to online shops that sell home gyms. Website visitors can find and compare workout stations from leading home gym manufacturers, and browse through related exercise equipment and fitness sites.
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All information on HomeGyms.us is provided "as is." This website contains information and resource links about home gym equipment. By using this website, you agree that Zeducorp is not responsible for errors or omissions, and shall have no liability for damages of any kind, including special, indirect, or consequential damages, arising out of or resulting from any information, product, or service made available hereunder or the use or modification thereof.
Thank you for visiting the HomeGyms.us website. We trust you have found our website useful, and we invite you to place a link to HomeGyms.us on your website. Simply copy the following HTML link | 267 |
Children at Kinross Primary School were on hand to see their new school officially opened last week.
The new multi-million pound Kinross Primary School was opened on Thursday, November 22 by education secretary John Swinney.
Kinross children will now be bale to enjoy a modern and state-of-the-art building, which was funded by both the Scottish Government and Perth and Kin<|fim_middle|> to welcome the deputy first minister to Kinross Primary School following the completion of our new facilities.
The new school has a capacity for 566 children, including dedicated nursery provision for 85 children.
A total of 18 'open plan teaching zones' will be in the new school, along with a dedicated gym hall and dining facilities.
And outside children can enjoy a grass pitch, a multi-use games area, outdoor teaching facilities and eco-features, as well as improved pupil drop-off and parking for parents.
Cllr Caroline Shiers, convener of lifelong learning at Perth and Kinross Council, said: "The construction of the new Kinross Primary School has transformed the learning and teaching environment for pupils and staff.
"This project is a key element of our work to maintain an effective school estate into the future and was undertaken as part of a £55m programme jointly funded by the council and the Scottish Government.
"I am delighted that the school community has settled well into its new surroundings and that we can celebrate its official opening. | ross Council.
John Swinney MSP said: "My thanks to Perth and Kinross Council for the opportunity to officially open the new state-of-the-art Kinross Primary School, which learners, staff and the whole community can be proud of.
The school's headteacher Pauline Smith said: "This is an exciting day for us | 67 |
Are you looking for the next step in your career? The Customer Service Representative, HVAC Accounts position may be the right position for you! We are currently hiring for an open position on our team. The right candidate will have excellent communication skills and a great attention to detail. To learn more, apply today!
The HVAC Division provides the heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration industry with risk management solutions for residential and commercial applications. Their diversified portfolio includes OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer), retail, dealer direct, and consumer direct initiatives. This department works directly with consumers and the vendors, providing excellent service with enthusiasm and professionalism.
Our HVAC Accounts Customer Service Representatives work directly with the HVAC Dealers and our Customers to ensure that the contracts are being upheld appropriately, answering questions, reviewing account history, and providing additional information as needed. HVAC Accounts Customer Service Representatives are responsible for updating contracts, staying up-to-date on programs, and acting as a connector with internal staff and our clients and vendors. They provide a superior level of service and support both internally and externally.
As a contributor at AIG, HVAC Accounts Customer Service Representatives are the ones our clients turn to in times of need. They act with speed, composure, compassion and knowledge to solve problems and the work they do every day is the heart of AIG's business.
Work closely with Marketing Account Management.
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Research and resolve issues for HVAC customers.
Communicates effectively with all levels within Service Net and outside clients and/or vendors.
Stay current on programs and remain up to date on any program changes.
Assist dealers with website issues by walking them through step by step.
Manage marketing material & supply for dealer kits.
Register and maintain dealer files.
Works with Data Entry for order entry and sales pending.
Making independent decisions based on contract terms and conditions.
Serve as liaison between customers,<|fim_middle|> that range.
AIG Warranty in Jeffersonville has a casual dress code, and a fun, friendly work environment.
If this position sounds like it could be the right fit for the next step in your career, please apply today. | dealers, and service providers.
Resolve dealer and end-user contract issues; attempt to finalize issues within two days.
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Promotes and encourages a positive working environment and presents positive role model for others.
Proficient with PC's, especially with MS Word, Outlook, and Excel programs.
Excellent interpersonal skills and the ability to work with a variety of personalities.
Previous customer service and/or phone experience.
Ability to multi-task and handle several issues simultaneously.
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Technical knowledge of HVAC Equipment.
Ability to utilize online tools in researching for detailed product specifications.
Ability to work well with others and explain technical information to peers and customers in an easily understood manner.
Although prior HVAC, Warranty, or Insurance experience is beneficial, AIG will train the right candidate to prepare them for success as a Claims Examiner. Candidates with experience in providing excellent customer service, moving quickly to keep many projects going at once, and the ability to keep organized records will be competitive for this role.
This position works at the Jeffersonville , Indiana office Monday through Friday. This is a full time, 40 hour per week role. The department is open from 8:00 am to 6:00 pm, Monday through Friday, and the scheduled hours will fall within | 307 |
Mark Duplass Joins Welcome To People
Global Trailer For JACK R<|fim_middle|>ody and Sherman 3D | YAN: SHADOW RECRUIT
The Trailer For JACK RYAN: SHADOW RECRUIT
THE FAMILY New Red Band Trailer
THE FAMILY (MALAVITA) Reveals New Trailer, Clip & Red Band Featurette
And more casting news for today! Mark Duplass, probably best known for his indie roles in Humpday and Cyrus has joined the cast of the upcoming Alex Kurtzman's directorial debut titled People Like Us. Lucky guy, indeed, because we've just learned that he will star as the love interest of Elizabeth Banks. Elizabeth Banks is not the only interesting name, because the cast also includes Michelle Pfeiffer, Chris Pine and Olivia Wilde. Welcome to People is currently filming and is the touching story of a man (Pine) who is tasked with taking $150,000 from his father's will to the alcoholic half-sister he never knew he had (Banks). Pfeiffer will play Pine's mother, while Wilde is appearing as his girlfriend. As we already mentioned, Duplass is aboard to play a neighbour who shows an interest in Banks. People Like Us is set to be released sometime in 2012.
Related Topics:Alex Kurtzman, Chris Pine, Elizabeth Banks, Mark Duplass, Michelle Pfeiffer, Olivia Wilde, Welcome to People
Liam McIntyre In Spartacus: Blood and Sand
Robert Downey Jr to Voice Peab | 292 |
If you have ever felt "knots" in your muscles then you have almost certainly felt the discomfort of "Trigger Points". Trigger points are technically defined as "a taught band within skeletal muscle or it's fascia ( connective tissue ) with a characteristic pain referral pattern". They can be caused by any muscular trauma, poor posture<|fim_middle|>, and specific with trigger point therapy being a regular feature. | , a sudden forceful stretch or contraction – particularly by a fatigued muscle, or even metabolic waste if the body can't clear it quickly enough. They usually start when a small sensory nerve in the muscle detects a distortion and causes a few muscle fibers to contract slightly to prevent an overstretch injury. Rather than returning to normal once the danger has passed, the sensory nerve continues to fire and the muscle fibers continue to contract.
This kind of little knot can refer pain somewhere else in the body. Common examples of this are trigger points in the gluteal area causing leg pain, or trigger points in the upper shoulders and neck creating tension headaches. The pain patterns are typical from person to person. So much so that when a client describes the exact location of their headache I can often locate the source in just a few seconds.
Trigger points can be effectively treated using massage therapy techniques. These techniques consist of sensitive hands compressing the trigger point and carefully stretching and contracting the involved muscle using muscle energy techniques. Other techniques include "dry needling", injection of local anesthetics, low level laser therapy or pulsing ultrasound.
Everyone has a many trigger points in their body at any given time. The reason that we are not continuously wracked with pain is because most trigger points are what is referred to as "Latent", meaning that they are present but not causing any noticeable symptoms. A latent trigger point becomes "active" when it begins to cause discomfort. This is usually when clients come in for help. Skillfully applied massage techniques can often bring relief and eliminate trigger point pain in just one or two sessions.
Steve Brophy RMT has been involved in various forms of health care for most of his adult life and has been involved in massage therapy since graduating from Kikkawa college in 1998. Most recently he has been working on a medical / surgical unit as a licensed practical nurse and will be resuming his osteopathic studies in 2018. He has practiced massage therapy in a variety of settings including chiropractic clinics, gyms, and various multidisciplinary heath centres in Ontario and Nova Scotia. Steve has experience with sports injury rehabilitation, pre/post-natal care and labor massage, postural modification and palliative care. His work is informed by his experiences training in Yoga, Thai Yoga Massage, Shotokan Karate and other martial arts. Steve's work has been described as deep, dynamic | 489 |
from Loughborough University
mathscard online
Order printed version
Circle & Coordinate Geometry
Linear Graphs and Equations
The mid-point of a straight line
The distance between two points
The equation of a circle
Tangent and normal to a circle
Parametric Equations
Rectangular hyperbola
$y=mx+c$
$m$ = gradient, $c$ = vertical intercept.
$ m=\displaystyle \frac{y_2<|fim_middle|>=ct,\ \displaystyle y=\frac{c}{t}$
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All content content is for guidance only and does not represent a definitive statement of the requirements for AS and A-level. All formulae have been put together by Loughborough University's Mathematics Education Centre.
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Website and mobile app by Rock Kitchen Harris | -y_1}{x_2-x_1}$
Parallel lines have the same gradient.
Consider a line such as:
gradient $m = \displaystyle {y-y_1\over x-x_1}$
$\quad \quad \Rightarrow y-y_{1}= m(x-x_{1})$
This is another form for the equation of a straight line.
Yet another form is $ax + by + c = 0$
The mid-point of a straight line connecting points $(x_{1},y_{1}) $ and $ (x_{2},y_{2})$.
Mid point $P$ =$\biggl [\displaystyle \frac{x_{1}+x_{2}}{2},\displaystyle \frac{y_{1}+y_{2}}{2}\biggr ]$
Take two points $(x_1, y_1)$ and $(x_2, y_2)$
distance = $\sqrt {(y_2-y_1)^2 + (x_2- x_1)^2}$
For a circle with centre $(0,0)$ and radius $r$:
$x^2+y^2=r^2$
For a circle with centre $(a,b)$ and radius $r$:
$(x-a)^2+(y-b)^2=r^2$
A tangent to a circle is a straight line that just touches it.
The normal to a circle is a straight line drawn at $90^\circ $ to the tangent at the point where the tangent touches the circle.
The normal always passes through the centre of the circle.
If the gradient of the tangent is $m$, then the gradient of the normal is $\displaystyle \frac{-1}{m}$.
Gradient of normal $(m_{n}) = \displaystyle \frac{-1}{\hbox{gradient of tangent}(m_{t})}$
$\quad \quad \quad \quad \quad \quad \quad \Rightarrow m_{t} \times m_{n} = -1$
The coordinates of a point on a curve can be defined using parametric equations. With parametric equations $x$ and $y$ are expressed as $x=f(t)$ and $y=g(t)$ where the variable $t$ is called a parameter.
Examples of these parametric equations of curves are show below.
$x^2+y^2=a^2,\ x=a\cos \theta ,\ y=a\sin \theta $
$y^2=4ax,\ x=at^2,\ y=2at$
$\displaystyle \frac{x^2}{a^2}+\displaystyle \frac{y^2}{b^2}=1,\ x=a\cos \theta ,\ y=b\sin \theta $
$xy=c^2,\ x | 576 |
Orange County, FL – Orange County Utilities will host six free irrigation workshops beginning Saturday, July 12, in recognition of Smart Irrigation Month, an initiative of the Irrigation Association, a nonprofit industry organization dedicated to promoting efficient irrigation. Workshops will focus specifically on efficient and micro-irrigation. Information including event days, times, and locations are listed below.
Learn the efficient design of an in-ground irrigation system, how to set irrigation controllers, how to check sprinkler heads to ensure they are working properly, and how to make minor adjustments<|fim_middle|> process of converting portions of an irrigation system into micro-irrigation for more efficient watering. Participants will also have an opportunity to purchase a micro-irrigation starter kit for the reduced price of $19.00. To participate in a workshop listed below, residents can register at www.microirrigationclass.eventbrite.com.
July is traditionally the month of peak water demand for lawns, gardens, and landscapes in North America. The Irrigation Association named July as Smart Irrigation Month to increase public awareness about simple practices and innovative technologies homeowners, businesses, and property managers can use.
Homeowners typically overwater lawns and landscapes by up to 30 percent. By selecting and planting carefully, watering wisely, and maintaining and upgrading automated irrigation systems, consumers can save money, save water, and see better results.
For more information, customers can contact the Orange County Utilities Water Division at (407) 254-9850 (select option 1, then option 2) or send an email to Water.Division@ocfl.net. | and repairs to the irrigation system. To participate in a workshop listed below, residents can register at www.efficientirrigation.eventbrite.com.
Retrofitting an irrigation system to increase efficiency is easier than it sounds. In this interactive class, irrigation professionals will teach homeowners the step-by-step | 60 |
When I was about sixteen years old, I gave God my personal timeline.<|fim_middle|> them. | I had my future completely planned out. I knew what was going to happen and when. My six year plan was infallible. Or so I thought.
I turned eighteen and noticed my prior plans weren't happening. God, where are you? Are you trying to teach me a lesson in patience? Twenty comes around. Another proposed milestone. Nothing. God, why are you silent? At this point, I was beginning to panic. I didn't understand what God was doing. My plan included Him so why wasn't He going along with it?
Looking back, I can see how much I've grown those seven years of my life. God was indeed teaching me a lesson in patience, but more importantly, He was teaching me a lesson in trust. Trusting that His ways are higher than my ways. Trusting that He would guide me as long as I remain on the right path. Trusting that His timing is MUCH better than my timing.
My six year plan has nearly been accomplished in one short month. I'm excited watching what God is doing in my life and hopeful for what He will continue to do. I am blessed beyond words.
I have compiled a book list of all the books I have read this year—but not just any book list, an interactive one! Click each title, and you will be taken to a page where you can purchase the book for your very own. Yeah, I know you're jumping up and down right now from the excitement. You're welcome. Oh, and the ones I hiiiiighly recommend have asterisks by | 317 |
Катастрофа L-049 в Ричмонде — крупная авиационная катастрофа пассажирского самолёта авиакомпании Imperial Airlines, произошедшая поздним вечером в среду 8 ноября 1961 года близ Ричмонда (штат Виргиния). Авиалайнер выполнял пассажирский рейс по перевозке солдат-новобранцев и следовал из Балтимора (Мэриленд) в Колумбию (Южная Каролина), когда через некоторое время после вылета у него остановились оба правых двигателя, поэтому было принято решение следовать в Ричмонд (Виргиния). Но при подходе к аэропорту из-за отсутствия взаимодействия между пилотами был начат преждевременный заход на посадку, который затем был прерван. При повторном заходе на посадку отказал ещё один двигатель, после чего лайнер упал на лес и сгорел. В пожаре погибли 77 человек, что на то время делало данную авиакатастрофу крупнейшей в штате Виргиния.
Экипаж
Фактически экипаж состоял из двух командиров воздушного судна (КВС), двух бортинженеров и одной стюардессы:
Командир воздушного судна — 29-летний Рональд Х. Конвей (). В авиакомпании Imperial с марта 1960 года, имел квалификацию пилота самолётов C-46 и L-049. По данным на 15 мая 1961 года, когда проходил последнюю проверку, имел общий лётный стаж 4433 часа, в том числе 293 часа на L-049.
Командир воздушного судна — 45-летний Джеймс Э. Гримли (). В авиакомпании Imperial с июня 1960 года, имел квалификацию пилота самолётов C-46, DC-4, DC-6, DC-7 и L-049. По данным на 1 ноября 1961 года имел<|fim_middle|>, а также велел выпустить шасси. Но шасси не выпускались, так как давление в гидросистеме его привода создавалось гидронасосами, приводимых от двигателей и 4, то есть когда оба правых двигателя оказались отключены, то и гидросистема выпуска-уборки стоек шасси прекратила работу. На этот случай борт N2737A оборудован специальным клапанным переключателем, который подключает гидросистему шасси к гидронасосам двигателей на левой стороне крыла. Но в парке авиакомпании это был единственный Lockheed Constellation, оборудованный таким переключателем, тогда как на остальных двух самолётах такой модели его не было. Этот переключатель был найден и он оказался в закрытом положении, а гидронасосы левых двигателей, как показала экспертиза, до удара были исправны. Если бы клапан был открыт, то в течение 20—25 секунд шасси бы вышли, но бортинженеры забыли об особенности данного самолёта и начали вручную создавать давление в системе, что привело к значительной задержке с выпуском шасси.
Невыпуск шасси стал одним из основных факторов в принятии решения о прерывании захода на посадку на полосу 02, поэтому оба левых двигателя были переведены на полную мощность. Также пилотирование стал выполнять уже Конвей, который в данном полёте выполнял обязанности командира, но был вынужден затем передать управление напарнику, так как не мог видеть расположенный справа от самолёта аэродром. Когда «Локхид» находился к югу от полосы и начал выполнять последний разворот, то экипаж стал опасаться, как бы тот не пересёк продолжение осевой линии полосы, тем самым оказавшись к западу от последней, поэтому стал уменьшать радиус виража увеличением правого крена. Но увеличившийся крен, да ещё на неработающие двигатели, привёл к тому, что машина стала терять поступательную скорость, а заодно и высоту. Пилоты попытались выйти из снижения, потянув штурвалы «на себя», тем самым поднимая нос самолёта, когда из-за длительной работы с высокой нагрузкой отказал двигатель (крайний левый). На горизонтальный полёт лишь с одним работающим двигателем из четырёх борт N2737A был уже не рассчитан, поэтому теряя скорость и высоту он врезался в деревья.
Аспекты выживания
При столкновении самолёта с деревьями люди на борту получили ранения. Но по данным патологической экспертизы этих раненных было относительно немного. Зато во всех образцах крови погибших была обнаружена концентрация угарного газа, которая у одних была относительно небольшой, но плавно повышаясь достигла у некоторых 80 % насыщения. Образовавшийся снаружи пожар быстро разгорался, а через проломы в фюзеляже, что возникли при падении самолёта на лес, дым и пламя стали проникать салон, который таким образом превратился в газовую камеру. Вдыхая дым, люди теряли сознание и погибали спустя некоторое время, которое разнилось от 30 секунд до 2 минут, в зависимости от физиологических особенностей. Конечно, часть людей могла бы спастись, но тут сыграли такие факторы пожара, как высокая концентрация дыма, яркое и горячее пламя, которые вводили в шоковое состояние, а также создали панику среди пассажиров, так как их попросту никто не подготовил к выполнению эвакуации; основные выходы же при этом оказались либо завалены, либо их заклинило.
Причина катастрофы
Причиной катастрофы было названо отсутствие взаимодействие внутри экипажа, где каждый принимал решения без обсуждения с остальными, а также плохое знание оборудования, в результате чего произошёл последовательный отказ трёх двигателей, что создало аварийную ситуацию, с которой экипаж не смог справиться.
Проанализировав имеющиеся данные, комиссия пришла к выводам, что экипаж не был подготовлен к выполнению полёта, как по части квалификации, так и по осознанию ответственности за пассажиров на борту. Руководство авиакомпании знало о нарушениях сотрудников, но закрывало на это глаза. Выпущенные в Imperial руководства по выполнению полётов имели различные нарушения. Кадровая политика авиакомпании также была подвергнута критике.
Примечания
Комментарии
Источники
Литература
Энрико (округ, Виргиния)
События 8 ноября
Ноябрь 1961 года
1961 год в Виргинии
Авиационные происшествия в Виргинии
Авиационные происшествия в США 1961 года
Авиационные происшествия с Lockheed Constellation
Авиационные происшествия вследствие отказа двигателей
Авиационные происшествия вследствие проблемы с топливом | общий лётный стаж час, в том числе 352 часа на L-049.
Бортинженер — 30-летний Уильям Ф. Пойтресс (). В авиакомпании Imperial работал уже два года как авиатехник и бортинженер, имел квалификацию бортинженера самолёта L-049. Общий налёт на L-049 составлял 200 часов.
Бортинженер-стажёр — Питер Э. Кларк ().
Стюардесса — Линда Джонс ().
Самолёт
Lockheed L-049 Constellation с заводским номером 1976 по некоторым данным был выпущен 30 апреля 1946 года. Изначально самолёт относился к модели 49-11-26 и на период производства его регистрационный номер был 42-94555, так как данный борт предназначался для американских военно-воздушных сил. Однако в армию самолёт не поступил, при этом практически сразу после выпуска компания-изготовитель присвоила ему бортовой номер N90603. Затем этот самолёт практически за бесценок приобрела британская авиакомпания British Overseas Airways Corporation (BOAC), в которую он поступил 21 мая и где после перерегистрации получил бортовой номер G-AHEK и имя «Berwick». Также самолёт был переделан в пассажирскую модель 049-46-26 с пассажировместимостью салона 65 мест туристического класса. В октябре 1952 года авиалайнер переделали в модель 049D, а в июле 1953 года — в модель 049E. 27 февраля его продали американской авиакомпании Capital Airlines, где был присвоен новый регистрационный номер N2737A, а с 28 марта началась эксплуатация. Летом 1958 года самолёт приобрела американская Leased Coastal Cargo, позже переименованная в Coastal Air Lines, а 14 апреля 1961 года выкупила базирующаяся во Флориде компания Miami Aircraft and Engine Sales. 2 мая последняя сдала борт N2737A авиакомпании Imperial Airlines — небольшому авиаперевозчику, лётный парк которого состоял в общей сложности лишь из четырёх самолётов: трёх Lockheed L-049 Constellation (борта N67953, N2737A и N86532) и одного Curtiss-Wright C-46 Commando.
Каждая из четырёх силовых установок состояла из поршневого двигателя Wright 745-18BA-3, оборудованного воздушным винтом Hamilton Standard 33E60.
Последний капитальный ремонт (каждые 12 тысяч часов) борт N2737A проходил 30 июня 1958 года, ещё в период эксплуатации в Capital Airlines, а его наработка составляла часов. На момент поступления в Imperial Airlines его наработка составляла час. Последние известные данные о наработке лайнера датируются 31 октября 1961 года — часов, в том числе 47 часов от последней проверки (каждые 600 часов). Наработка двигателей от к (слева направо) на эту дату от последнего капитального ремонта составляла соответственно 1164 часа 30 минут, 47 часов 22 минуты, 1360 часов 2 минуты и 47 часов 22 минуты. Известно, что борт N2737A совершал полёты 2, 3, 6, 7 и 8 ноября, но записи о них не сохранились.
Хронология событий
Предшествующие обстоятельства
Самолёт был зафрахтован армией США и выполнял чартерный рейс IM-201/8 по доставке группы военных в Колумбию (штат Южная Каролина). Согласно заданию, борт N2737A должен был вылететь из Колумбии (Южная Каролина), после чего последовательно совершить посадки в Ньюарке (штат Нью-Джерси), Уилкс-Барре (штат Пенсильвания), и Балтиморе (штат Мэриленд). На этих остановках на самолёт должны были садиться солдаты-новобранцы, после чего собранную группу следовало доставить в Колумбию, откуда солдат должны были уже доставить на место несения службы.
В ходе подготовки в Колумбии на борт залили 3180 галлонов топлива, а также экипаж изменил план полёта, отказавшись от радиолокационного контроля со стороны диспетчера (полёт по приборам) и решив выполнять визуальный полёт. В 15:14 авиалайнер с одним только экипажем вылетел из Колумбии в Ньюарк. Согласно показаниям бортинженера Пойтресса, он после взлёта обратил внимание, что топливомер занижает показания, после чего обратился к стажёру Кларку: Что будем делать?. Стажёр ответил: Я собираюсь включить кольцевание между третьим и четвёртым, чтобы обеспечить положительное давление на правой стороне. Бортинженеры включили кольцевание топливных баков, но не стали говорить об этом командиру, как и о падении давления топлива. Когда «Локхид» поднялся до крейсерской высоты , тумблеры кольцевания были выключены. Дальнейший полёт на данном этапе прошёл в нормальном режиме.
В 17:37 авиалайнер приземлился в Ньюарке. Стоянка здесь составила 45 минут, в ходе которой на борт сели 26 пассажиров. Техническое обслуживание и дозаправка не проводились; согласно показаниям бортинженера, остаток топлива в баках составлял 2300 галлонов. В 18:22 самолёт вылетел в Уилкс-Барре, причём бортинженер перед самым взлётом включил кольцевание между третьим и четвёртым баками для сохранения давления топлива. Полёт проходил на высоте по правилам визуальных полётов.
Стоянка в Уилкс-Барре по плану должна была составлять 15 минут, но фактически продлилась 16 минут. Всего на борт сел 31 пассажир; при выполнении посадки оба левых двигателя ( и 2) были отключены, а оба правых ( и 4) продолжали работать. В 19:12 борт N2737A вылетел в Балтимор, при этом бортинженер снова перед самым взлётом включил кольцевание баков. Взлётный вес авиалайнера при вылете из Уилкс-Барре был оценён в при максимально допустимом . Как и на предыдущем этапе, полёт выполнялся визуально на крейсерской высоте .
Лайнер благополучно приземлился в Балтиморе, где на период стоянки снова были отключены оба левых двигателя. На борт сели 16 пассажиров, после чего самолёт отъехал от перрона и начал движение к началу полосы, когда ему дали указание вернуться, чтобы забрать ещё одного пассажира. Перед самым взлётом бортинженер опять открыл краны кольцевания между правыми топливными баками. В 20:30 авиалайнер оторвался от полосы аэропорта Вашингтон (город Балтимор), начав выполнять свой последний рейс. В 20:35 пилот Гринли связался с диспетчерским центром в аэропорту Вашингтон и сообщил план полёта: визуальный полёт на высоте прямым курсом на Колумбию (Южная Каролина), полётная скорость 218 узлов, расчётная продолжительность полёта 2 часа 10 минут при запасе топлива на 5 часов 30 минут, на борту 74 пассажира и 5 членов экипажа.
Согласно имеющимся показаниям, в этом полёте обязанности командира выполнял Конвей, сидевший в левом кресле, а сидевший в правом кресле Гринли выполнял обязанности второго пилота. Также командир Конвей утверждал, что обязанности бортинженера выполнял стажёр Кларк, но Пойтресс утверждал, что именно он сидел на месте бортинженера при вылете из Балтимора. После вылета экипаж довернул на запад, чтобы обойди переполненное воздушное пространство, а также выйти на воздушный коридор «Victor 3», который проходил через пункты Бруквиль (вероятно, имелся в виду Брук-Омни), Флэт-Рок , Роли—Дарем, Уинстон, Честерфилд и Колумбия. В районе Бруквиля самолёт достиг заданной высоты, после чего режим двигателей был снижен до номинального.
Отказ двигателей
Самолёт пролетел Бруквиль и следовал ещё некоторое время (выжившие не смогли его точно указать), когда его начало вдруг уводить вправо, одновременно с этим загорелись сигнальные лампы низкого давления топлива в обоих правых двигателях. Бортинженер Пойтресс в это время как раз сошёл с места, чтобы уступить стажёру, но когда Кларк обратил его внимание на пульт, то вернулся обратно. Двигатель остановился, а наоборот увеличил число оборотов с 1500 до 2000 оборотов в минуту. Командир крикнул бортинженеру, что у них проблемы с топливом, на что последний сразу открыл краны кольцевания всех четырёх баков, а также попытался перезапустить оба правых двигателя. Какой уровень топлива в баках показывали в это время датчики, никто из выживших не запомнил. Далее бортинженеру сказали, чтобы он бросил пытаться перезапустить сразу оба двигателя, сосредоточившись только на одном, желательно четвёртом, так как он работает. Но бортинженер сказал, что не может перезапустить четвёртый, поэтому попытается запустить третий двигатель, а четвёртый остановить.
В это же время из салона прибежал стажёр, который открыл клапан кольцевания между правыми и левыми топливными баками, причём для этого пришлось использовать отвёртку. Пилоты только сейчас узнали, что у них оказывается с самого начала были проблемы с давлением топлива. Бортинженер перепробовал все попытки запустить хоть один из правых двигателей, но всё было тщетно, о чём было сказано командиру Конвею, на что тот принял решение выполнять вынужденную посадку в Ричмонде. Оба правых двигателя были зафлюгированы, а стрелки их тахометров находились на нулевых показаниях.
Температура в левых двигателях была в норме, а ситуация в целом проходила нормально. Связавшись с вышкой , пилоты доложили о ситуации на борту и намерении совершить посадку у них. Стюардессе было сообщено о проблемах с двигателем и следовании на Ричмонд, после чего дали указание предупредить пассажиров о вынужденной посадке. Так как никто не рассчитывал на то, что может возникнуть аварийная ситуация и посадка вне аэродрома, пассажиров не стали инструктировать о действиях при эвакуации в случае пожара.
Катастрофа
На подходе к Ричмонду командир доложил диспетчеру, что они находятся к югу от города и будут заходить на полосу 33. Самолёт в это время следовал с примерным курсом 90° (на восток) на нормальной скорости, а экипаж начал выпускать закрылки. Пилотирование осуществлял ещё второй пилот, который вдруг воскликнул «Давайте сядем на ту полосу», после чего повернул самолёт влево на северо-восток и опустил рычаг шасси. Когда командир глянул туда, куда поворачивал второй пилот, то увидел внизу ярко освещённую полосу 02. Быстро оценив высоту и скорость полёта, командир решил, что они не успеют приземлиться, а переведя взгляд на индикаторы шасси крикнул «шасси не выпускаются». Затем он обернулся и увидел, что бортинженеры установили переключатели гидравлических систем в аварийное положение, либо близко к этому. Командир опять перевёл взгляд на расположенную перед ним панель и увидел, что индикаторы убранных шасси ещё горят, поэтому крикнул, чтобы шасси выпустили в аварийном режиме. В это время пилоты уже прервали заход на посадку и увеличили режим двигателей.
Скорость и высота позволяли долететь до полосы 33, но для этого ещё предстояло выполнить правый поворот, то есть на неработающие двигатели. Также в процессе разворота на землю было доложено: Башня, мы прерываем заход. У нас ещё кое-что — шасси не выпускаются. Взяв на себя управление, командир пролетев над полосой начал выполнять правый поворот, но быстро потерял из вида расположенную справа полосу 33, поэтому снова передал управление второму пилоту, которой сидя с правой стороны лучше видел аэропорт. В это время стажёр начал вручную подкачивать давление во вспомогательной гидросистеме, чтобы суметь выпустить шасси. Лайнер плавно выполнил правый поворот, но командир по прежнему не мог увидеть полосу, когда бортинженер вдруг доложил, что они теряют двигатель (крайний левый). Тогда командир стал помогать второму пилоту управлять машиной, когда бортинженер ещё раз доложил о падении мощности в первом двигателе. Затем вдруг ручка выпуска шасси самопроизвольно передвинулась вниз. На самом деле это стажёр наконец смог с помощью ручного насоса повысить давление в гидросистеме настолько, что шасси вышли из ниш. Также на пульте загорелись два из трёх индикаторов выпуска шасси.
Продолжая поворачивать вправо, «Локхид» оказался левее продолжения оси полосы 33, а командир понял, что они не смогут приземлиться на эту полосу, поэтому потянул штурвал на себя, поднимая нос и выводя лайнер из снижения. Однако самолёт от такого действия начал быстро терять скорость и высоту. Последнее значение воздушной скорости, которое запомнил командир, было примерно 90—95 узлов. Через мгновение машина с правым креном 10° на высоте над землёй врезалась в деревья. Промчавшись над поляной длиной , борт N2737A врезался в толстые деревья, промчавшись через которые на протяжении около упал на землю и остановился.
Удар был относительно мягким, а самолёт не разрушился. Также, как позже показала экспертиза, никто не погиб при ударах о деревья. Но когда бортинженер Пойтресс открыл дверь в салон, то увидел, что тот весь затянут дымом. Тогда Пойтресс выбрался наружу через дверь с правой стороны кабины. Командир Конвей успел выбраться наружу через раздвижное окно. Через секунды авиалайнер был поглощён огнём, перерезавшим все выходы. Кто-то из пассажиров сумел выбраться наружу, после чего стал помогать остальным. Стюардесса и бортинженер-стажёр пытались открыть переднюю входную дверь, но её завалило деревьями. Отдельные пассажиры пытались открыть аварийные выходы. но не смогли.
Кроме командира Конвея и бортинженера Пойтресса больше никто не выжил в катастрофе. Пилот Гринли, бортинженер-стажёр Клар, стюардесса Джонс и все 74 пассажира погибли из-за отравления дымом. На то время по масштабам это была крупнейшая авиационная катастрофа в штате Виргиния.
Предварительное расследование
Как показала проверка двигателей, все четыре были исправны и не имели признаков отказа. При столкновении с деревьями частота вращения первого двигателя составляла 2600 оборотов в минуту, а воздушный винт находился в режиме подготовки к отключению двигателя. Частота вращения второго двигателя составляла 2563 оборотов в минуту, а его воздушный винт находился в режиме тяги. Воздушные винты обоих правых двигателей были зафлюгированы.
Проверка клапанов топливной системы показала, что все они работали исправно. При проверке топливных фильтров было установлено, что фильтры левых двигателей оказались уничтожены в пожаре, но зато уцелели фильтры правых двигателей, и эти самые фильтры как раз оказались забиты инородными вкраплениями. Было решено тогда проверить степень загрязнения топлива, так как форсунки авиационных двигателей достаточно чувствительны к этому фактору. Как удалось установить, до вылета из Колумбии на борту находилось 1832 галлона топлива, но пилот Гринли запросил залить ещё примерно по 800 галлонов в топливные баки с каждой стороны. Заправка выполнялась двумя автозаправщиками. Следователи проверили эти заправщики и обнаружили, что в грузовике, который заправлял правую плоскость (баки 3 и 4), топливо было сильно загрязнено. Также оказалось, что два из двадцати элементов топливного фильтра в правой плоскости были неправильно установлены и пропускали грязь к двигателям. Когда выяснилось, что от грузовика с грязным топливом заправляли ещё и другие самолёты компании Imperial, включая борт N86532, следователи изучили эти лайнеры и в одном из них обнаружили сильное загрязнение. Но при этом данная грязь практически не влияла на работу двигателей.
Тщательная проверка парка компании Imperial показала, что их техническое обслуживание проводилось с нарушениями, а межремонтные сроки завышались. Также в авиакомпании не гнушались использовать контрафактные детали. Сами экипажи многие обнаруженные в полёте замечания по работе попросту не указывали. Фактически пригодность разбившегося борта N2737A для выполнения злополучного полёта теперь была под большим вопросом.
Анализ данных
Техническое состояние топливной системы
На слушаниях по катастрофе Джон Мэйфилд (), который занимал пост Старшего бортинженера авиакомпании, довольно расплывчато, а то и противоречиво отвечал на вопросы следователей относительно технического обслуживания борта N2737A в Колумбии. В частности он сперва заявил, что лично получил из другой авиакомпании пару электрических щёток для их установки в подкачивающие насосы и 3, при этом одну из щёток пришлось подпилить, чтобы она подошла, а другая же щётка была нужного типа. Однако на следующих слушаниях он «забыл», что вторая щётка была нужного типа. Когда ему на это указали, он стал отрицать, что получал обе щётки, указав что вторую ему дал мистер Кларк. Стоит отметить, что следователи смогли восстановить второй подпитывающий насос и установленная в нём щётка не подходила для данной модели. Относительно ремонта третьего подкачивающего насоса, то его возможно либо не проводили, либо сделали лишь временный ремонт, только лишь бы не задерживать вылет. Тот же Мэйфилд на повторных слушаниях начал вскоре утверждать, что на самолёте был установлен временный подкачивающий насос, и в авиакомпании есть специальный комплект таких. Однако на других бортах запасных подкачивающих насосов найдено не было, так как для них запасных насосов и не заказывали.
Из-за того, что подкачивающий насос теперь не мог работать на полную мощность, при вылете из Колумбии возник скачок давления в двигателе . На работу двигателя это практически не повлияло, так как топливо продолжало исправно поступать, но бортинженер-стажёр на это отреагировал открытием кранов кольцевания, тем самым соединив системы питания обоих правых двигателей. Так как насос работал исправно, то создавая более высокое давление он создал такой напор топлива, по сравнению с насосом , что закрыл обратный клапан между коллектором и топливным баком . В результате когда бортинженеры включали кольцевание, то оба правых двигателя начинали питаться топливом лишь из бака . Хотя бортинженер и утверждал, что кольцевание включалось лишь перед взлётом, следователи решили, что оно включалось на гораздо больший срок, возможно даже в течение значительной части полёта. В результате произошло истощение топлива в баке , после чего двигатели остановились. При испытаниях в условиях работы двигателей на значительной части полёта от одного бака, 800 галлонов топлива были сожжены спустя такое же лётное время, что и в случае с рейсом 201/8.
Высказанную выше версию о загрязнении топлива как одну из причин катастрофы комиссия сочла несостоятельной, так как полёт продолжался несколько часов, при этом сбоев в работе двигателей не наблюдалась. Остановка двигателей произошла только после истощения топлива. к тому же взятые из автозаправщика образцы топлива по сравнению с топливом на борту разбившегося самолёта были втрое сильнее загрязнены, а потому по ним нельзя точно установить, насколько загрязнение ухудшило работу двигателей.
В целом самолёт был признан непригодным в полётам из-за нескольких факторов:
Нестандартный ремонт, затронувший лётную пригодность самолёта.
Самолёт эксплуатировался с нарушениями руководства по лётной эксплуатации.
Были превышены установленные межремонтные интервалы.
Не велись журналы об отмеченных в полётах неисправностях.
Когда правые двигатели остановились, а бортинженер начал пытаться их перезапустить, топливный бак был уже сух, но его подкачивающий насос продолжая перегонять уже воздух, сумел тем не менее создать такое давление воздуха, что оно продолжало запирать обратный клапан бака . По мнению экспертов, если бы бортинженер выключил краны кольцевания, как это указано в процедурах по запуску двигателей в воздухе, то он сумел бы запустить двигатель , так как в его топливном баке ещё был достаточный запас горючего.
Выполнение захода на посадку
Можно обратить внимание, что когда в 21:12 экипаж в первый раз связывается с диспетчерской вышкой Ричмондского аэропорта, авиалайнер уже летит лишь на двух работающих левых двигателях. При этом у экипажа, на протяжении как минимум 8 минут после доклада о следовании в Ричмонд, не было проблем с пилотированием самолёта, несмотря на дисбаланс тяги, создающего разворачивающий момент. За это стоит отдать должное создателям модели L-049, к которой относился борт N2737A, так как её разрабатывали с условием возможности выполнения полёта на двух оставшихся рабочих двигателях, даже если оба они расположены на одной стороне крыла (пункт 4b «Положений гражданской авиации»).
В целом выполнялся нормальный заход на полосу 33, когда в кабине возник конфликт во взаимодействии. Хотя Гринли имел квалификацию командира самолёта, но в данном полёте он, по договорённости между пилотами, выполнял обязанности второго пилота, однако в возникшей ситуации он вёл пилотирование и даже отдавал команды остальным членам экипажа. Увидев, что полоса 02 гораздо ближе, он без обсуждения начал выполнять заход на неё | 6,948 |
During the First World War, soldiers of the Regiment wore puttees as part of their uniform. Puttees were narrow strips of khaki-colour fabric wrapped in an over-lapping spiral pattern around the lower leg, above the ankle boots up to below the knee.
""The puttee was almost like a bandage made of [<|fim_middle|> of it was that it didn't need sizes - it would also stop your boot being sucked off in mud," Mr Cordeaux added.
Puttees provided the soldier's leg support, prevented dirt and insects entering both boots and trousers and provided a measure of protection against the weather and abrasions. When wrapped properly, puttees helped to insulate the leg from cold weather and to reduce injury without restricting movement. In hot weather, the material breathed and could be removed and washed. Importantly, puttees could be used as a dressing or splint, or to provide support to a part of the body.
In the Second World War the Regiment's puttees were replaced largely with canvas web anklets. Puttees are, however, still used today in sport such as hiking, climbing, cross-country skiing and backpacking. Their lightweight, breathable and multi-purpose nature make them practical gear to have to get by with less but still stay safe, healthy and comfortable on the trail.
Sign up to automatically receive blogs. | knitted] wool, and it was wrapped around the leg," explained Douglas Cordeaux, from Fox Brothers & Co Ltd, from Wellington, in Somerset.
"The beauty | 33 |
<|fim_middle|>, quality, or other factor in such a way that you get the good stuff and eliminate all the uncompensated risks. That's really hard to do."
[II Deep Dive: Smart Beta Is Coming for Active Bond Fund Managers, Study Shows]
Hunstad noted that there are decades of academic research that offers evidence that a handful of factors can generate higher risk-adjusted returns than the market. However, this research "doesn't tell you how to extract that premium in the best possible manner," he said. "No way."
For example, famous research on the sources of stock returns by University of Chicago Professor Eugene Fama and Dartmouth's Kenneth French in the early 1990s used the price-to-book measure to define a value stock. If an allocator today used that definition, however, the portfolio would have be significantly overweight financial stocks, said Hunstad, who added that the risk of financials in certain periods would overshadow the value premium.
"I believe in factors, but the implementation is horrid throughout the industry," Hunstad said.
However, eliminating uncompensated risks is not easy, according to Hunstad. Such hidden risks are one of the reasons why systematic funds that are all called "value" or "momentum" can vary widely in terms of risks and performance, despite targeting the same factor premiums.
NTAM has developed what it calls a factor efficiency ratio to measure a factor fund's exposure to uncompensated risks, which it believes are behind the wide disparity in performance in the smart beta world. A fund with a high factor efficiency ratio would give an investor high exposure to the factor they want and would include fewer uncompensated risks.
In separate research that was published in the Journal of Index Investing in 2015, Hunstad and another Northern Trust quant researcher evaluated 21 of the largest factor-based strategies available at the time, and analyzed how much of these strategies' active risk was being used to target the particular factor — the compensated risk — and how much was uncompensated risk. "Our analysis suggests the vast majority — 83 percent — of active risk taken by smart beta strategies or funds is unintended/extraneous; therefore, investors are only getting compensated for 17 percent of the risk they are exposed to," said Hunstad. He noted that while the research is a few years old, the point is still valid.
Smart-Beta Indexes: Simplicity Is Not Always a Virtue
Matt Peron
Mike Hunstad | Why Factor Investing Isn't Working
Pension funds and endowments aren't getting the factor premiums they desire — just uncompensated risk.
By Julie Segal
Asset owners have increasingly incorporated factor-based funds into their portfolios in an attempt to earn equity premiums at a low cost. But they are ending up bearing currency, country, sector, and other risks that are going uncompensated, according to an analysis of 500 complex institutional portfolios by Northern Trust Asset Management.
NTAM has analyzed more than 500 portfolios over the last five years and has evaluated more than 180 portfolios since 2017 to determine whether institutions were earning sufficient excess returns for the active risks they were taking and the fees they were paying. Public and private pensions represented about two-thirds of the portfolios, with the remainder being superannuation funds and endowments.
The asset manager found that institutions weren't getting the results they wanted for a number of reasons. First, targeted factor exposures are being offset by the other managers held in asset owner portfolios, creating index-like outcomes at higher fees. Second, many endowments and retirement plans have invested in poorly designed factor-based funds, which don't efficiently deliver the premiums that investors are counting on.
NTAM also found that portfolios are often stocked with so many managers with similar holdings that the potential for outperformance is essentially diversified away.
"The whole exercise of factor investing is delineating between the risks you get paid for and the risks those you don't," said Michael Hunstad, head of quantitative strategies at NTAM. "The challenge is you want to define the value | 327 |
Good Samaritan in New York snowstorm gets help delivering her baby
Mrs Bethany Hojnacki (right) and her husband Jared with their baby who was delivered in a firehouse during a snowstorm. The couple stopped to help a trapped driver on Tuesday, only for the driver who was a pediatric nurse to repay their kindness by helping them deliver their baby. -- PHOTO: SCREENGRAB FROM<|fim_middle|> can pay in the best way possible when a nurse she helped in the monster snowstorm in New York helped deliver her baby before she could reach hospital.
Mrs Bethany Hojnacki and her husband had stopped on Tuesday to help another trapped driver, who happened to be a pediatric nurse, according to WVIB, an affiliate of CNN. Their baby, Lucy, was delivered that same evening - by the nurse at a firehouse when Mrs Hojnacki went into labout early.
"It was kind of incredible. God really put the people who needed to be in the right spot for us at the right time," Mrs Hojnacki's husband Jared told CNN's "Anderson Cooper 360" on Wednesday.
The couple gave their child the middle name of Grace.
On top of that stroke of luck, another stranded woman at the firehouse was, by coincidence, a maternity nurse, Mr Hojnacki said according to CNN. He described both nurses, who were not named, as angels.
"It's more than amazing. We're so blown away by God's grace," he said.
Mrs Hojnacki said: "It was a crazy time for sure, but a happy ending. Her name is Lucy Grace - her name means grace illuminated. On a day that was so sad, how many people died - this baby is such a bright like in a such a dark storm."
The storm dumped more than five feet of snow in and around Buffalo, New York, killing at least eight people around Lake Erie in the north-eastern United States, stranding motorists and cancelling flights, Agence France-Presse reported.
A few more feet of snow fell on Wednesday, and the National Weather Service said the snowfall was likely to continue through Friday morning. | YOUTUBE
http://str.sg/Zwhx
NEW YORK - One good turn deserves another. A heavily pregnant woman shows that kindness | 28 |
Critical Moments: The Birth of the Hack
By<|fim_middle|>Radical Strain
By Sasha Geffen
We listen to women the same way we look at them.
It Gets Worse
By Malcolm Harris
The dissonance between the two poles, between puppy and wolf, altar boy and Rosemary's baby, is the heart of Odd Future's sound Since Roland Barthes…
Better to Fade Away than to Burn Out?
By Mary Borkowski
John Tremblay at Francesca Pia (Contemporary Art Daily) "Writing, as such, takes an almost intolerable combination of hubris and naiveté. This has destroyed many a… | The New Inquiry May 16, 2014
From Renata Adler's review of Pauline Kael's When the Lights Go Down, in the August 14, 1980, issue of the New York Review of Books
The consumer service remains the professional basis for the staff reviewer's job; fidelity, evidence, and so forth are still the measures of his value, but the high critical edge becomes misplaced, disproportionate when applied to most ordinary work. The staff critic is nonetheless obliged, and paid, to do more than simply mark time between rich periods and occasional masterpieces. The simple truth—this is okay, this is not okay, this is vile, this resembles that, this is good indeed, this is unspeakable—is not a day's work for a thinking adult. Some critics go shrill. Others go stale. A lot go simultaneously shrill and stale…. Some staff critics quit and choose to work flat out again, on other interests and in intermittent pieces. By far the most common tendency, however, is to stay put and simply to inflate, to pretend that each day's text is after all a crisis—the most, first, best, worst, finest, meanest, deepest, etc.—to take on, since we are dealing in superlatives, one of the first, most unmistakable marks of the hack.
The Untrustworthy Reader
By Miranda Popkey
Renata Adler the novelist trusts her readers to sift detail, make inferences, read against the grain of the narrative voice.
| 315 |
Island Racer is the ultimate guide to the Isle of Man TT races, and features everything you need to know ahead of the premier road-racing event on the calendar, as well as features and interviews covering the biggest and best names in the business.
Published by the same team behind Classic Racer, Fast Bikes, Motorcycle Sport & Leisure and Motor Cycle Monthly – among others – the series is now more than 1<|fim_middle|> up a copy in every newsagent and petrol station on The Island itself. Editions can be ordered direct from the publisher too, or if you prefer to go digital then a version is available to download for your chosen device.
In it you'll find a complete TT2016 Who's Who and Watcher's Guide, the story of TT2015, interviews with John McGuinness, Ian Hutchinson and Jamie Hamilton, a massive multi-part TT poster and a FREE DVD featuring on-board footage from McG's record-breaking lap in last year's Senior race. | 0 years old and has become the most definitive source of TT information. Island Racer is edited by motorcycle journalist and former TV presenter Tony Carter, it's published by Classic Racer editor and former TT podium man Malc Wheeler and it draws on expertise from experienced TT writers. An incredible collection of photography is showcased too, much of which comes from Stephen Davison at Pacemaker Press.
Expect this year's edition to be on the shelves of all leading UK newsagents and retailers in the weeks leading up to the TT, and you'll be able to pick | 111 |
The German antitrust authority has banned Facebook from combining user data across its apps and third-party sites without users' consent, accusing the company of coercively taking advantage of its "market dominance".
Mr Mundt said the Cartel Office's view that the lack of any alternative to Facebook and the unequal relationship between it and consumers over the handling of their data qualified as antitrust issues - a view that has been upheld in the German Federal Court.
"In<|fim_middle|> integration plans and the data it collects across all its services and beyond.
The EU introduced its General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) in May past year, intensifying regulators' focus on Facebook.
'On the one hand there is a service provided to users free of charge, ' Cartel Office president Andreas Mundt said.
And, it protects the user's safety, the firm claims. "Yet the Bundeskartellamt's decision misapplies German competition law to set different rules that apply to only one company", Facebook said in its blog. | future, Facebook will no longer be allowed to force its users to agree to the practically unrestricted collection and assigning of non-Facebook data to their Facebook accounts", Cartel Office Chief Andreas Mundt said.
Regardless of whether the German ruling - which would only apply in Germany - sticks, Vernick said the European data protection commission is already looking closely at Facebook's | 71 |
All of what you see before you, all of it is merely my 10,000 interpretations of a day in the life. And I know I will never get it right, this one day that I have, that I try and live, over and over again. That is how I see it, at any rate<|fim_middle|>, or sing. For everything under the sun having always been around, it can be surprisingly new, from time to time; and this illusion itself of time can be quite novel in its tapestry. But I have seen the secret, that all we have is this one day, this being it: today: and I will see if I can describe it, what I see, and hear, etc. For I think that when we finally sleep, it will be a long time to wake. | : all of us only have today, this one day: our Lord told us not to think of the morrow, and yesterday is not but a memory, so what else do we have? We were all of us caught at birth by an incredible stream whose beginning and whose end we will never know, except maybe in story, given this gift called today. And some of us decided to write about it, this thing we are living in, or paint | 91 |
Discover the complex relationship between a legendary man and one of the<|fim_middle|> relationship between a legendary man and one of the most beautiful cities in the world.
Paris shaped Napoleon as much as Napoleon transformed Paris. This souvenir catalogue chronicles the ways in which the city set the scene for his meteoric rise and fall, and gives a sense of how its inhabitants experienced the turning points of the era. Personal objects and furniture provide an intimate look at the luxury enjoyed by the Emperor and his inner circle, and place the savoir faire of Parisian artisans in the limelight. A wealth of paintings and architectural drawings allow us to catch glimpses of Napoleon's capital — both as it was, and as it could have been. | most beautiful cities in the world. Paris shaped Napoleon as much as Napoleon transformed Paris. This souvenir catalogue chronicles the ways in which the city set the scene for his meteoric rise and fall, and gives a sense of how its inhabitants experienced the turning points of the era.
Discover the complex | 58 |
Dirt Bag
Sharon Osbourne Claims Her Kim Kardashian 'Ho' Comments Were<|fim_middle|> force be with J.J. Abrams, again. [EW]
contributing writer, nights
Waiting For The Raptor
Kate Hudson: go fuck yourself. The C-section is the reason why my son and I are both alive today. It's a legitimate medical procedure that saves fucking lives. | Misquoted and That She Wasn't Being Rude
Hannah Gold
Screenshot: Youtube/The Talk
On Monday, Sharon Osbourne gave an interview to The Talk where she backtracked a little on incendiary comments she'd made about Kim Kardashian's body and brand of feminist politics (or lack thereof) the previous week to the Telegraph.
Osbourne claimed that she was misquoted, then referenced her comment about Kim not being a real feminist, which Kardashian rebuked by spitting back "I never said I was a feminist."
"It got misquoted when it came out—my response," said Osbourne, "and then Kim came back and said 'I never said I was a feminist.'"
As for the rest of what she told the Telegraph, including that Kim Kardashian is a "ho," Osbourne didn't apologize, but she did cast a more flattering light on her previous comments. "[The interviewer] asked my opinion and I gave it," Osbourne said. "It wasn't rude. She poses nude, she's very sexual in her clothes, and even her everyday clothes, it's very sexual. Whatever she does, it's showing her body, which shows she's a strong, grounded woman and she's not ashamed of her body."
The initial quote that got Osbourne in trouble and precipitated this nude Kim Kardashian selfie, goes as follows:
"Kim says she's doing everything in the name of feminism, but that's not feminism! Those girls live off their bodies, half of L.A. has been through them and everything they do from the sex tape to the plastic see-through dresses and the gym wear is about sex, not female progress. And listen: God bless them. If Kim wants to show off her body, fine. But that's not feminism, that's being a ho. And there's nothing wrong with being a ho, but always remember what you are."
So long as Sharon Osbourne stops talking about Kim's body and wardrobe in interviews, the matter would seem settled.
[Page Six]
Moving right along, here's an outfit that Ashton Kutcher and Mila Kunis's son wore. Rare to see such a bold, independent style in a nine-month-old.
[People]
Kate Hudson said in a recent interview that having a C-section is the laziest thing she's ever done, yikes. [Page Six]
Aaron Carter went on a date with an aspiring actress he met in Central Park. How predictable. [Page Six]
Liam Neeson thinks he's too old to play the hero in action movies: "Guys, I'm sixty-fucking-five." [Vulture]
Judge Judy (aka Judith Sheindlin) established a not-fake public debate forum at USC Annenberg. [Page Six]
Carey Mulligan and Marcus Mumford are parents twice over. [Us Weekly]
Christian Bale says he achieved his new Dick Cheney physique by "eating a lot of pies." [Us Weekly]
Janet Jackson's older brother Steven Randall "Randy" Jackson claims Janet's ex-husband Wissam Al Mana verbally abused her until she felt like "a prisoner in her own home." [People]
Kirsten Dunst is using a Pinterest board to plan her upcoming wedding. [People]
May the | 664 |
Identical Twins Test Plant-Based vs. Meat-Based Diet and the Vegan Diet Wins
Lucy<|fim_middle|>: Featured, Vegan Diet Test | Danziger
The Turner Twins are no strangers to physical dering do. As explorers and adventurers, their latest challenge was not to the Green Pole, but to the diet poles, testing opposite ways of eating: The vegan or plant-based diet versus a meat-based diet. It was an "inner" journey of monitoring their blood levels, body fat, and weight, along with workout fatigue, training recovery time, and how they felt. Spoiler alert: After 12 weeks, the vegan diet kicked the meat-based diet to the curb.
At the end of the 12-week experiment, the identical twins detailed their methods and results. It's not the first time they have tested diet plans, they told Men's Health UK.
Said Ross: "At the end of last year we did a test of high-fat vs high-carb. I was on the high-fat diet and I shredded. I lost about 3kg of fat; Hugo was on high-carb and he put on 3kg. Adds Hugo: Ross has always been slightly heavier, so, we met each other in the middle [when I was on that high-carb diet.] In the end, we were 85kg each.
Hugo Goes Vegan, Ross Keeps Up the Meat. Here's What Happened:
Introducing the vegan diet vs. the meat diet 12-week challenge on their YouTube channel, in January, the Turner Twins explained that they worked out together at the gym, on the track, and on their bikes, and measured their body fat and biomarkers at the beginning of the 12-week diet experiment, and reported on their results in Men'sHealth UK.
Ross and Hugo Turner call themselves "adventure guinea pigs." In this experiment, they discovered dramatic differences in how they felt on the two diets. Their findings: Hugo, on the vegan diet, had better energy levels for training and lost more body fat, while Ross on the meat diet, felt fewer changes (no surprise since he basically kept eating his usual omnivore diet) and his body fat was more stubborn–it actually went up slightly. They measured their gut microbiome and cholesterol levels, two important markers of current and future health that can predict the risk of heart disease and other chronic ailments.
The vegan diet helped in all areas except one: The only drawback was that Hugo felt hungrier some of the time, they explained. In an interview with The Insider.
The Turner twins go on an expedition to the edge of the diet frontier
The Turner Twins have climbed countless mountains and trekked to the most unhuman points on every continent, raising money and doing research as they go. For this diet adventure, they tested the role of fuel on two identically genetic bodies.
Identical twins, identical workouts, very different diets: Vegan vs. meat
What makes this diet more interesting to science–other than the obvious fact that it had only two people in the study-- is that they are genetically identical and they trained the exact same way for the three months. Originally they were inspired by the athletes they saw successfully trying plant-based diets in the documentary The Game Changers, Ross explained.
"We wanted to take bias and opinion out of it and take it down to the genetic level. We can get science involved because we're twins and genetically identical, so we can compare ourselves in extreme environments," Ross said In an interview with Insider.
The twins, who live in the UK, worked with Kings's College to track their health metrics such as weight, cholesterol, and muscle mass. Hugo and Ross continued their usual endurance training five to six times a week, using a program designed by Ross, who is also a personal trainer. They ate an almost identical number of calories in meals prepared by the Mindful Chef.
After 12 weeks, the differences in muscle gain, fat loss, and digestive health:
The Vegan Diet: Higher energy, less fat. Hugo started the diet weighing 185 pounds with 13% body fat. After a month he had lost 9 pounds, although he regained some of those by the end of the experiment. At the end of three months, he weighed 181 pounds. Nearly all the weight lost was fat, with his overall body-fat composition went down to 12%. His cholesterol levels dropped and his energy level improved. Hugo said he felt significantly more alert and able to focus during his gym sessions, compared with his typical routine.
"On a vegan diet my mental focus was much better, I didn't have the mid-afternoon energy dips, and felt a bit more charged," he told Insider. On a vegan diet he changed his snacking habits, switching out chips and cookies to fruit and nuts.
The Meat Diet: Ross gained more mass overall Ross has always been the bigger twin, and this diet experiment only emphasized that. He started with 13% body and put on 10 pounds of muscle, in addition to just over four pounds of fat, with his body fat percentage edging up to 15%, and his final weight to 189 pounds. His cholesterol levels stayed the same. The diet meal plan was more varied than his typical diet, with an array of chicken, fish, red meat, veggies, dairy, and grains. Before the diet, the twins would always eat the same things: toast or oatmeal for breakfast, a sandwich for lunch, and chicken, veggies, or pasta for dinner.
The vegan diet led to changes in the gut microbiome
For Hugo, the vegan diet was a bigger chance, since he swapped out meat for tempeh, tofu, and jackfruit.
"Eating a vegan diet, you almost have to overcompensate with variety, so I was eating foods I wasn't really used to," Hugo said. The result was a change in his microbiome, which can potentially protect individuals against some forms of chronic illness, according to studies that show the vegan diet lowers the risk of heart disease, obesity, and type 2 diabetes.
But to their surprise, both brothers saw a decrease in their microbial diversity or the number of different bacteria in the gut. Although Ross' microbiome changed slightly, it remained much more consistent than Hugo's did. The sudden change to a vegan diet, and the short duration of the experiment, could have been the reason that Hugo saw the biggest changes, they hypothesized.
They plan to add more vegan foods into their diet, especially snacks
The 12 weeks wasn't long enough, the Turners said, to see the outcomes of dietary change on the body long term. They said they wished they had continued for six months or a year.
The twins said that after this trial they will incorporate more plant-based eating into their diet, including vegan meals, days, and snacks. Knowns for their expeditions, the brothers want to test how vegan eating could benefit their energy and focus on a trek.
"You lose about half a kilo of weight a day on an endurance trip, and more than that if you're carrying extra weight," Hugo said, "so we like to be lean and mean and nothing in between on the trip."
He added that eating vegan for three months expanded his world of food options. "One thing to come out of this is we don't eat nearly enough variety of foods. Often, we kind of just disguise the same foods in different forms," Hugo told Insider. "But variety is the spice of life."
Try it, by adding in vegan snacks, meals and days to your diet, the Turners advise
"Don't go "cold tofu" and jump in all at once," adds Hugo, who recommends starting with snack habits, and swapping out between-meal treats with vegan snacks like nuts, seeds, and dried fruit. The twins concluded that the optimal diet is a mix of both diets.
There tends to be a reluctance for meat-eaters to try vegan foods, Ross pointed out and he wants to encourage meat-eaters to add more plant-based meals, like vegan burgers and other non-meat meals to their diet.
"Having a vegan diet has benefits and so does eating meat. I don't think either outshone the other here," he said. "We'll be doing a mix of both, having non-meat days and adding more vegan foods into our diet, eating better-quality meat, and less of it. We've taken away the best of both worlds."
Source: Identical Twins Test Plant-Based vs. Meat-Based Diet and the Vegan Diet Wins
Filed Under | 1,732 |
Home » From Longwall Street to Lapland
From Longwall Street to Lapland
As in the rest of the UK, the weather has turned rather chilly of late in Oxford. Happily, it is nice and toasty in the Archives office, but we recently received a collection of material here with a decidedly wintry feel, one whose arctic theme is enough to make you shiver even with the central heating on!
This collection, compiled by former Magdalen student John Mansfield Weatherby (C 1928–31), and donated to the Archives by his daughter, Joanna, is also one that perfectly illustrates the importance of personal and private papers to Magdalen's historical records. Indeed, the event around which the collection revolves, namely an expedition to Norwegian Lapland (Finnmark), organised by John Weatherby while a student in 1930, is something about which almost no information exists at Magdalen itself, save for the fact that we know the college contributed £20 to its undertaking.
The whole expedition, which Weatherby organised under the aegis of the Oxford University Exploration Club (OUEC), founded just three years earlier, was initially projected to cost £375, of which his father, Edward Mansfield Weatherby (1872–1956), contributed the largest single amount (£75). The eventual total was a whopping £570 (over £29,000 in today's money).
Fig. 1 Expedition account book
Far from being an overly expensive jolly, however, the expedition set out with serious scientific aims, specifically within what was then the evolving field of ecology. Indeed, one of the expedition members was Charles Elton (1900–91), now commonly credited as being 'the father of animal ecology', who had previously been on Arctic expeditions in 1923 and 1924. As for the route, the expedition planned to walk from the head of Porsanger Fjord (Porsangerfjorden) and then down the Reisen Valley to the west coast at Sørkjosen, carrying out biological surveys along the way. Elton's report, published two years later with John Weatherby's consent in The Geographical Journal, confirms that these aims were largely achieved, but otherwise gives an understandably academic account of events.
Fig. 2 Hand drawn map by John Weatherby of expedition route
Fortunately, the records created by John Weatherby, which are now in the Magdalen Archives, add considerably more flavour. These include a large collection of both bound and loose photographs, administrative materials such as an account book and expedition proposal, correspondence and postcards, guides and maps, and the notes for a talk Weatherby gave upon his return.
They also include Weatherby's extensive handwritten diary (and a typescript copy of it), which not only offers vivid descriptions of the landscape and the expedition's adventures within it, but also sketches of the indigenous people and samples of local flora. It also captures some of the tensions within the group, absent from Elton's published report, which on occasion bubbled to the surface as journeys took longer than expected and provisions began to run low.
Fig. 3 Weatherby's diary
Similarly, the collection sheds fascinating light on the people and places the expedition encountered along its route almost a century ago. Weatherby's drawings show a keen artistic eye (he later became a painter, and lectured in Art), while a recent reader to consult the collection, who hails from the very region visited by the expedition, remarked upon how well Weatherby had captured in his descriptions the landscape that very few people from outside the subarctic world would then (and also now) have ever seen.
Fig. 4 A page from John Weatherby's expedition photo album
There are also the insights the collection allows into the early career of Charles Elton, one of Britain's foremost ecologists. He had himself graduated from Oxford only eight years prior, having published his first (and landmark) book, Animal Ecology,<|fim_middle|> testament to what must have been a defining event of John Weatherby's time at Magdalen, otherwise unrecorded in the college archives, and to the remarkable achievements of this particular young student. The extent of Weatherby's youth is starkly captured by his diary entry for his first full day leading the expedition (also his birthday), when he noted simply that, 'Last night with the midnight sun shining, I realised I was 20 years old.' Like many before and since, his time at Magdalen was shaped by far more than tutorials, essays, and exams, with his experiences in Norwegian Lapland no doubt proving as formative as those enjoyed just off Longwall Street.
Fig. 5 Group photo with Charles Elton (back row, centre)
As such, it is fantastic that the Weatherby papers should now have a permanent home at Magdalen. And, if you'd like to make your own mini-expedition to come and consult them (or anything else in our collections) in our always temperate reading room, you need only get in touch and ask!
Written by Dr Richard Allen, College Archivist, Magdalen College. | in 1927. Elton's papers, which include his own diaries and photographs from his Arctic expeditions, are today housed at the Bodleian, and can now be brought into conversation with Weatherby's accounts. These also capture the techniques used by the team's scientific members at a time when the discipline itself was developing, some of which would today raise eyebrows.
First and foremost, however, this collection stands as a | 89 |
Pale Lager from Budweiser Budvar was awarded two gold medals in the Monde Selection competition
Pardál
Two lagers from Budweiser Budvar were successful in the 56th "Monde Selection" - worldwide competition for the quality evaluation of products. Pardál Echt Pale Lager and Budweiser Budvar Pale Lager received gold medals from the expert panel. The competition organized by the Belgian International Quality Institute is one of the largest in the world: this year, 2,965 products of 966 producers from 89 countries were registered. In the beer category, 326 samples from 98 breweries in 67 countries were evaluated.
Pale lager from Budweiser Budvar was successful in the 56th "Monde Selection" - worldwide competition for the quality evaluation of products. Pardál Echt Pale Lager and Budweiser Budvar Pale Lager received gold medals from the expert panel. 326 samples from 98 breweries in 67 countries were evaluated In the beer category.
Budweiser Budvar's Pale Lager is the flagship product of Budweiser Budvar Brewery. It is exported to almost 80 countries and accounts for over one fifth of total beer exports from the Czech Republic. It has been awarded medals repeatedly in the Monde Selection competition: since 1987, it has a total of nine gold medals and three silver medals. Pardál Echt has been produced since 2009 and is primarily intended for customers in the Czech Republic. It has already won three gold medals in the Monde Selection.
"The gold medals from the Monde Selection constitute good news particularly for our customers. The analyses were<|fim_middle|> to the consumers as a guarantee of total product quality. As far as beer is concerned, the assessment consists of a professional assessment of sensory properties, laboratory analyses, microbiological tests and the quality of packaging. Twenty parameters were evaluated. The beer tasting was carried out by a panel composed of experts from the brewing industry, university professors and professional tasters. The Belgian Institut Meurice, which is a globally recognized professional organization in the field of brewing and fermentation technology, professionally guaranteed the beer assessment. | carried out by the Meurice Institute, which ranks amongst authorities recognised worldwide in the area of brewing. Our beer has been awarded the Monde Selection Medals repeatedly since 1987, which is a clear proof to our consumers of the long-term excellent quality of our beer," says Budweiser Budvar's brewing master Adam Brož, Ph.D., MBA. In the past, other beers from Budweiser Budvar were successful in the Monde Selection competition. Budweiser Budvar's Dark Lager has received two gold and one silver medal, so has special beer BUD. In 2011, a gold medal was awarded to Budweiser Budvar Non-Alcoholic Beer.
Monde Selection ranks among the largest and most prestigious international competitions for quality assessment. This 56th year saw a total of 2,965 products of 966 producers from 89 countries register. The world quality evaluation is organized by the Belgian International Quality Institute. The Institute is an independent organization aiming to objectively and professionally assess the quality of products. The awarded medals serve | 224 |
Call your provider to determine your remaining coverage<|fim_middle|>Visit CRA to explore what you quality for.
Gather up receipts for medical, childcare, caregiver, tuition and self-employment expenses. You'll need proof you actually spent this money.
Make charitable donations by Dec 31st, 2016.
Get a plan in place to top up your RRSPs come February.
Negotiate for better prices, terms and conditions on house, auto, life and disability insurance.
Get rid of recurring payments that don't offer value like expensive gym memberships that you don't use or grocery delivery services that result in rotting foods.
Like these tips? Sign up for our newsletter. | for dental work, vision care, chiropractic, massage, physiotherapy and prescriptions.
and order your contact lenses.
Use up health care spending account dollars.
If your vacation days can't be carried forward, apply for them to be paid out or simply book the time off.
| 56 |
ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-russia-greece-stocks-gains-2020-2019-51578003441\nThese Countries Had Bigger Stock-Market Gains Than the U.S. Here's Why – and Whether You Should Buy\nJohn Coumarianos\nUpdated Jan. 3, 2020 5:00 am ET / Original Jan. 3, 2020 4:58 am ET\nGreece, Russia, and China all had dazzling stock-market performances in 2019.\nLots of countries had amazing stock-market performances last year, and some still appear cheap. Adventurous investors may want to reserve small parts of their portfolios for them.\nLast year was a gangbuster one for U.S. bonds and stocks. Bonds delivered more than 8%, while stocks returned more than 30%. But the stock markets of some other countries did even better. Russian stocks were up around 50%. Chinese A-shares, the main class of stock for companies listed on the mainland, were up more than 40%, as were Greek stocks.\nIt's hard to know why a particular country's stock market does well in a given year, but here are some guesses. Russian and Greek stocks are cheap, and it is possible they are beginning to trade at prices more in line with the rest of the world. Russia trades at a price/sales ratio of 0.8 and a cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio of 7.6, according to Star Capital.\nThe CAPE metric takes the current price and divides it by the past decade's worth of average real earnings. CAPE levels for the U.S. stock market have been near 7.6 only in the early 1920s, the early 1930s, and the late 1970s.\nGranted, Russia has significant problems, including a sclerotic economy dominated by oil and mining and a corrupt political system led by a dictator. If you buy Russian stocks, you can basically call Vladimir Putin your business partner.\nHedge-fund manager turned political activist Bill Browder told Barron's Bill Alpert about his time investing in Russia, saying that Putin effectively became the biggest oligarch after putting the original group of oligarchs in prison. Still, for those who want to take the plunge, there is the iShares MSCI Russia Capped ETF (ticker: ERUS) with an expense ratio of 0.59%.\nChinese A-shares were included in emerging-markets indexes in the middle of 2<|fim_middle|> amazing stock-market performances last year, and some still appear cheap." | 018. They are shares of Chinese companies incorporated on the mainland, quoted in renminbi, and listed in either Shanghai or Shenzhen. MSCI begin including A-shares in its widely followed indexes after moving money in and out of China's financial markets became easier as a result of the introduction of a trading program called Stock Connect.
Before then, and to some degree since, the A-shares market was dominated by small investors and experienced wide fluctuations. Chinese stocks trade at an unremarkable CAPE ratio of 14.6 despite the desire among Western investors to access China's fast-growing companies. Investors can get exposure to Chinese A-shares through the iShares MSCI China Small-Cap ETF (ECNS), which has an expense ratio of 0.59%.
Greece is another country with problems—a debt crisis that began in 2009 resulted in widespread unemployment. Its stock market trades at 0.7 times the sales of the underlying companies.
Financial companies like National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank account for about 30% of the market, but the top stock in the main local index is the Hellenic Telecommunication Organization. Consumer stocks account for around 14%. The Global X MSCI Greece ETF (GREK) delivers exposure to the Greek stock market, also with an expense ratio of 0.59%.
Finally, investors can consider the Cambria Global Value ETF (GVAL) from Cambria Investments, the firm run by prolific thinker and researcher Mebane Faber. This fund, with an expense ratio of 0.68%, invests in the cheapest countries using a variety of valuation metrics, including CAPE. Its top country weights are Brazil (11.4%), Greece (9.3%), Turkey (9.2%), and Spain (9.1%). Italy and Russia are tied for the fifth slot at 8.7%, each.
For the past five years, the fund has posted a 6.9% annualized return, which lags behind the MSCI ACWI Index's 8.4% return, but beats the 6.1% achieved by the MSCI ACWI Value Index. A lower expense ratio would have helped it against both indexes.
Over that time, the fund has delivered more than its share of volatility, with a standard deviation of returns of 15%, versus less than 12% for both indexes. The higher the figure, the more volatile the investment. Nobody said making money was easy.
Write to John Coumarianos at john.coumarianos@barrons.com
Lots of countries had | 542 |
This morning<|fim_middle|>but not much) to light snow falling and poor visibility in others (Yokoteyama) at the time of writing this.
Tomorrow we might get to see the sun after a cold night tonight and it should keep cold for tomorrow. Keeping cold is helping with the snow, but without much refresh over the last run of days and milder conditions, there's a spring-like feel to proceedings at the moment.
Early in the week might be a different story though and we might see temperatures rise into positive numbers and it's going to be borderline snow/rain even up here. All fingers and everything else crossed please as we will the former.
Hopefully once we get past this warmer spell, we might see a return to colder and more wintery conditions.
It's the weekend though for now. Time to have some fun! | is indeed colder in Shiga Kogen though not much more than a thin layer of snow since yesterday really. The trees are looking frosted and there's a chill in the air which is good to feel. Just generally cloudy this morning though differing conditions in different parts of the Shiga Kogen area - ranging from a few breaks in the cloud to reveal a bit of blue sky here and there ( | 80 |
The Blackmagic Pocket Shoulder Mount from SHAPE is a camera rig that is designed to enable shoulder-stabilized hand-held shooting with the Pocket Cinema Camera while providing a platform to mount 15mm rod-based accessories such as follow focuses and matte boxes<|fim_middle|>20 and 3/8"-16 threaded holes for the addition of camera-mountable accessories such as recorders and monitors. The system is modular, so that the cage can be separated from the rod system for use in other applications, such as mounting the camera in a tight space.
The hand grips feature spring-loaded push buttons so that they can be adjusted on the fly without having to loosen a screw or bolt. They can also be taken off completely to suit certain shooting styles or to use the rig mounted on a tripod. There is a 1/4"-20 threaded hole under the camera base plate so that it can connect with most tripod quick release plates. | . In addition to a shoulder mount and rods, the system features a cage for the Pocket Cinema Camera as well as a top handle.
The cage helps protect the camera and features 1/4"- | 40 |
Ghost World on DVD
One of the movies that was heralded by critics last year is finally on DVD. And, as you'd expect, it's not really all it's cracked up to be.
Ghost World is about two young women, Enid (Thora Birch) and Rebecca (Scarlett Johansson), and their various misadventures.
Enid and Rebecca are fresh out of high school, and rather than seeing it as an opportunity to do something with<|fim_middle|> (1.85:1) 16 X 9 enhanced, 5.1 Dolby Digital
Starring Thora Birch, Scarlett Johansson, Brad Renfro and Steve Buscemi
Produced by Lianne Halfon, John Malkovich, Russell Smith
Written by Daniel Cloves & Terry Zwigoff
Directed by Terry Zwigoff | their lives, they - like so many of us - see it as an opportunity to do absolutely nothing with their lives.
It doesn't help that they are the kind of people we all hated in high school: the people who thought they were the coolest thing around, and that everyone else was just weird or annoying. So naturally, they only have each other.
When they decide to play a cruel joke on a lonely loser (Steve Buscemi), they begin to drift apart, as Enid starts to like the guy and spends all her time with him.
It's hard to explain the plot or story of the movie, since it's either extremely complex or amazingly simple. I'm not sure which. The acting is all very good, with Birch and Johansson leading the way playing the nasty little witches with pinpoint accuracy. But Buscemi steals the show, as he has so many times, and even though you may think the character is a bit crazy, you can't help but want him to get his way.
Ghost World has a few very funny bits, and a few bits of exceptional drama. It's definitely a well-made movie, I just didn't find it overly entertaining. At nearly two hours, it seems to drag on.
But I'd recommend it to anyone who agrees with the critics (critics other than us!) more often than not.
Perhaps because it was an indie film, MGM didn't give the DVD the special edition treatment. The picture is pretty good, but the sound is merely average, and there isn't much in the way of extras.
Unlike the MGM special editions, which usually give you a choice of widescreen or full screen presentations, Ghost World is only shown in 1.85:1 anamorphic widescreen (not that it bothers me any). It isn't up to the quality of many other discs, but for the type of small film this is, the less-than-perfect picture actually works quite well.
The sound is presented in 5.1 Dolby Digital, and, like I said, is just average. It's probably due to the fact that there isn't much in the way of sound effects and such, but the track seems to use up the stereo speakers and not much else. Still they say it's in 5.1.
Extras include a few deleted/alternate scenes, which are pretty pointless (watch them and you'll see what I mean), an 11-minute making-of featurette (the typical PR stuff), a Gumnaam music video, and the trailer.
For an indie film, this isn't a bad disc.
Ghost World, from MGM Home Entertainment
111 minutes, anamorphic widescreen | 546 |
Having your child write a letter to the tooth fairy to accompany a lost tooth can be a great tradition that creates a sense of wonder and magic for the experience. But how much more exciting would it be for your child to get a letter back from the tooth fairy? To get started, you can use a tooth fairy letter template you can find online or create your own version.
Never underestimate the power of advice from the tooth fairy. Of course, you want your letter to focus on the lost tooth and whatever gift or payment you choose to leave, but why not enlist the tooth fairy's help on other things. She could comment on the health and state of the tooth, providing the perfect opportunity to reinforce proper brushing and flossing habits.
Remember that your child has a lot of teeth to lose, so you don't want to try to cover everything in one letter. Leave yourself some material for the teeth to come. Save a copy, either handwritten or typed, of your finished letter, and next time, you will already have your own customized tooth fairy letter template you can follow. Just plug in any situation-specific information.
Consider appearance when you are making your tooth fairy letter template. Decide how much work you want to put into it, keeping in mind that whatever you do for the first lost tooth your child will expect for all the rest. Decide whether you want to write the letter by hand in swirly writing or just type it using a script font<|fim_middle|> your child's room next to the bed. Thinking outside the box and getting creative will ensure that your child remembers these special visits from the tooth fairy forever. You may also want to encourage your children to practice their manners by writing the tooth fairy thank you notes for her time and her gift. | . You can use plain white paper, or you can dress it up with patterned or pastel choices. If you really want to go all out with the presentation, include an envelope addressed to your child with the tooth fairy's return address.
The right presentation can take your letter from basic to fantastic. Consider dusting the letter with glitter or using footprint stickers to leave fairy tracks in | 77 |
The first question Owners ask me is, "What makes C-Two Hotels different from other management companies"? My answer is "We work for our clients FIRST!" What are the owner's objectives? We review the asset through the eyes of an owner, feel of the customer and collaborate with our team. We determine the best course of action and create a plan to achieve the "profit potential of the asset". While, being the "Biggest" or the "Oldest" Management Company is not always the best choice. Because the days of a one size fits all solution is over!
Furthermore, each<|fim_middle|> on a hands-on approach that promotes flexibility, innovation, and responsiveness. All of our strategies and actions are aligned to deliver improved results and an exceptional return on investment. I look forward to hearing from you on how C-Two can help you! | hotel has a distinct market, unique challenges and opportunities. Our approach is to evaluate the situation, select and guide the appropriate solution-savvy team, then determine the best course of action and GET IT DONE. We are truly unique in our ability to maximize the market share performance of hotels, run very efficient operating margins; while balancing the need to ensure associate, guest and brand satisfaction.
We give our property associates the leadership, the tools and the wisdom to succeed and get the job done! Additionally, we have experience in almost every brand out there. We have learned how to maximize the support and energy of the brands. After all, that is what owners are paying for.
Don't take my word for it — contact me and I will be happy to provide references for you to gain their perspective.
Finally, our goal is to create long term client relationships! This is accomplished through solid hotel management leadership, earning the trust of our clients and maximizing R.O.I. for clients. Therefore, our success is reliant | 202 |
About ACMT > About Us > Board of Directors
ACMT Board of Directors
Michelle Ruha, MD, FACMT
Banner—University Medical Center Phoenix
President (2019-2021)
Dr. Ruha received her medical degree from UMDNJ New Jersey Medical School and then completed an Emergency Medicine residency at Morristown Memorial Hospital in New Jersey. Her fellowship training brought her to Phoenix, Arizona, where she served as Director of the Medical Toxicology Fellowship at Banner Good Samaritan Medical Center from 2005 to 2017. She is now Vice-Chief of the Department of Medical Toxicology at Banner – University Medical Center Phoenix and Section Chief for Addiction Medicine. Dr. Ruha is Board Certified in Emergency Medicine, Medical Toxicology, and Addiction Medicine, with her clinical practice focused on the care of patients with medication or venom toxicity as well as substance use disorders. She is a Clinical Professor with the Department of Emergency Medicine at the University of Arizona College of Medicine Phoenix. Her primary research interests include North American snake and scorpion envenomations, and she is the Principal Investigator for the ACMT North American Snakebite Registry. She has been a member of the Board of Directors of the American College of Medical Toxicology since 2009, and is currently serving as President.
Louise Kao, MD, FACMT
Indiana University School of Medicine
Vice President (2019-2021)
Dr. Kao received her medical degree from Rush Medical College in Chicago, where she worked as a Poison Information Specialist (PIS) at the Chicago Poison Center under the medical direction of Dr. Jerrold Leikin. Dr. Kao went on to complete residency in Emergency Medicine and a Medical Toxicology Fellowship at Indiana University/Methodist Hospital in Indianapolis. She is board certified in Emergency Medicine and Medical Toxicology. Dr. Kao currently serves as the IU Medical Toxicology Fellowship Director as well as the Director of the Medical Toxicology rotation for residents and students in addition to her clinical Emergency Medicine and Toxicology duties. She is an Associate Professor of Clinical Emergency Medicine at the IU School of Medicine. Her vision for the future involves expanding the visibility and reach of Medical Toxicology across disciplines.
Anthony Pizon, MD, FACMT
UPMC Presbyterian
Secretary / Treasurer (2019-2021)
Dr. Pizon currently serves as the Chief of the Division of Medical Toxicology and as Director of the Medical Toxicology Fellowship. He received his medical degree at the Medical College of Ohio in 2001. He completed his Emergency Medicine Residency at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center in 2004 and completed his medical toxicology fellowship training at Banner Good Samaritan Medical Center in Phoenix, Arizona in 2006. Dr. Pizon is board-certified in both Emergency Medicine and Medical Toxicology. His current research interests include the novel pharmaceutical management of withdrawal syndromes, the evaluation of cost effective care provided by medical toxicologists, and biomarkers of hepatic injury after acetaminophen toxicity. However, his real passion lies in the education of fellows, residents, and medical students.
Charles McKay, MD, FACMT
University of Connecticut School of Medicine
Past President (2019-2021)
After graduating from both Dartmouth College and Medical School, Dr. McKay completed an internship and residency in Internal Medicine at Rhode Island Hospital. He completed his residency in Emergency Medicine at Denver General Hospital, and completed practice pathway preceptorships in Medical Toxicology at the Rocky Mountain and New York Poison Control Centers.
Dr. McKay is a medical toxicologist at Hartford Hospital and the University of Connecticut School of Medicine, where he is an Associate Professor of Emergency Medicine. He is a diplomat of the ABMT and the ABMS Toxicology Subboard. He is the Associate Medical Director of the Connecticut Poison Control Center and the Director of the Toxicology Fellowship at UConn. Dr. McKay also directs a toxicology consult service at Hartford Hospital and Connecticut Children's Medical Center (CCMC). As Medical Director of Occupational Health Services for Hartford Hospital and CCMC, he also evaluates questions of workplace safety and toxic exposure for 9,000 employees.
He has served on the ACMT Board of Directors since 2007 and is the Past Chair of the ACMT Practice Committee. Dr. McKay is active in biopreparedness efforts at the local and state level and has helped lead ACMT's participation in the Department of Homeland Security's Chemical Terrorism Risk Assessment (CTRA) process. Dr. McKay is also the National Coordinator of the ACMT-ATSDR Regional Consultation<|fim_middle|> Wiegand, MD, FACMT
University of Rochester Medical Center
Dr. Wiegand is an Associate Clinical Professor in the Department of Emergency Medicine at URMC and also a volunteer faculty member of the SUNY Upstate Medical Toxicology Fellowship program. Dr. Wiegand's research interests include billing, reimbursement and effectiveness of Medical Toxicology practice models, warning signs for suicide attempt in particular the use and involvement of alcohol or drugs in a suicide attempt and he is involved with wide variety of surveillance and research projects involving the bedside toxicology Registry the ACMT Toxic Case Registry.
Paul Wax, MD, FACMT
University of Texas, Southwestern School of Medicine
ACMT Executive Director
Dr. Wax is the Executive Director of the American College of Medical Toxicology. He received his B.A from Dartmouth College, his M.D. from the Mount Sinai School of Medicine, his Emergency Medicine training at the UCLA Hospitals, and his Medical Toxicology training at Bellevue Medicine Center / New York University. He is Board-certified in both Medical Toxicology and Emergency Medicine, and is a Fellow of the American College of Medical Toxicology.
Along with his part time role as the Executive Director of ACMT, Dr. Wax is a Clinical Professor in Surgery (Emergency Medicine) at the University of Texas, Southwestern School of Medicine where he is a member of the Section of Medical Toxicology and Director of the Medical Toxicology Clinic. Before joining ACMT in 2008 as its Executive Director, and the University of Texas Southwestern in 2006 as a part-time faculty member, Dr. Wax had faculty appointments in the Departments of Emergency Medicine at the University of Rochester School of Medicine from 1991-2001 and the University of Arizona School of Medicine from 2001-2006. Dr. Wax previously served on the Board of Directors of ACMT from 1998-2008 serving as ACMT President from 2006-2008. During this tenure he chaired the ACMT Education Committee from 1998-2002. From 2002-2006 Dr. Wax served as the National Director of ACMT's Consultation Network to support the ATSDR Regional Offices and was co-founder of ACMT's Chemical Agent of Opportunity course. From 1997-2006 Dr. Wax also served as one of the American Board of Emergency Medicine's appointee's on the Medical Toxicology Subboard. During this time Dr. Wax served as Editor of the Medical Toxicology Board Certification Examination as well as Chairman of the Subboard, and was also the primary author of the 2004 Core Content of Medical Toxicology. Dr. Wax has also served as a consultant to the Centers for Disease Control NCEH's Division of Laboratory Sciences and was a member of NCEH/ATSDR Board of Scientific Counselors from 2006-2008.
Board Interns (April 2019 - June 2020)
Charlotte Goldfine, MD
Michael Hayoun, MD
Ryan Marino, MD
Brian Patrick Murray, DO
Past Board Interns
Hannah Malashock, MD, Banner University Medical Center, Phoenix, AZ (2017-2018)
Sarah Shafer, MD, University of Texas Southwestern, Dallas, TX (2017-2018)
Henry Swoboda, MD, Toxikon Consortium, Chicago, IL (2016-2017)
Kevin F. Maskell, Jr., MD, Virginia Commonwealth University Health System (2015-2016)
Robert Bassett, DO, Albert Einstein Medical Center (2014-2015)
Katherine Boyle, MD, University of Massachusetts Medical (2014-2015)
Dazhe James Cao, MD, Rocky Mountain Poison and Drug Center-Denver Health (2014-2015)
Jennifer Carey, MD, University of Massachusetts Medical School (2013-2014)
Melissa Halliday, DO, Emory University School of Medicine (2013-2014)
Kathryn Kopec, DO, Albert Einstein Medical Center (2012-2013)
Tayler Schwartz, Brown University (2011-2012) | Network.
Dr. McKay seeks "to develop sustainable practice opportunities for medical toxicologists." His interests lie in clinical patient care, occupational and environmental toxicology, biopreparedness, and training of residents and fellows. He also enjoys scuba diving and distance running.
Maryann Amirshahi, PharmD, MD, MPH, FACMT
MedStar Washington Hospital Center
Children's National Medical Center
(Term 1: 2019-2022)
Dr. Amirshahi completed her BS in pharmacy and PharmD at the University of the Sciences in Philadelphia, followed by medical school at Temple University. She completed emergency medicine residency at the University of Pennsylvania, medical toxicology fellowship at the George Washington University, and clinical pharmacology fellowship at Children's National Medical Center. She received an MPH from the George Washington University with a concentration on environmental and occupational health. She is board certified in emergency medicine, medical toxicology, addiction medicine, and clinical pharmacology. She is currently an Associate Professor of Emergency Medicine at the Georgetown University School of Medicine and practices clinically at MedStar Washington Hospital Center and Children's National Medical Center in Washington, DC. She serves as a toxicology consultant for the Mid-Atlantic Center for Children's Health and the Environment and the National Capital Poison Center. Her research interests focus on medication safety, prescription drug shortages, drug therapy in emergency medicine, and prescription drug abuse.
Diane Calello, MD, FACMT
New Jersey Poison Information and Education System
Rutgers Biomedical and Health Sciences
Dr. Calello, a New Jersey native and devotee, received her BA from the College of William and Mary and her MD from New Jersey Medical School. She completed residency training in pediatrics, and fellowship training in both pediatric emergency medicine and medical toxicology at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia and Poison Control Center in Philadelphia. Dr. Calello is board certified in pediatrics, pediatric emergency medicine, medical toxicology, and addiction medicine. She is currently the Director of Medical Toxicology at Morristown Medical Center and a toxicologist at the New Jersey Poison Information and Education System (NJPIES). She has lectured and published on various facets of clinical toxicology, particularly as it pertains to extracorporeal treatment, intravenous lipid emulsion, and poisoning in the young child.
Bryan Judge, MD, FACMT
Spectrum Health Medical Group
Dr. Judge graduated from Wayne State University School of Medicine and the GRMEP Emergency Medicine Residency Program. Following graduation, he completed a fellowship in medical toxicology at Indiana University in Indianapolis. Dr. Judge has served in a number of faculty roles before becoming the Program Director of the Emergency Medicine Residency Program. The interface with people that occurs during his job has been essential in providing him with much satisfaction and keeps ignited his passion for 'what he does' and 'why he does it'. He enjoys going to work every day and connecting with faculty, medical students, and residents in order to deliver compassionate and quality care for patients. He has four children and his spare time is spent with family and friends. He enjoys cooking, erging, hunting, rowing and writing. His next academic accomplishment is to complete a master's degree in health professions education in order to keep bringing innovative educational ideas and methods to the program.
David Juurlink, MD, FACMT
Dr. Juurlink is a staff internist and head of the division of Clinical Pharmacology and Toxicology at Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre in Toronto. He is also a medical toxicologist at the Ontario Poison Centre at the Hospital for Sick Children and a scientist at the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences.
He received degrees in Pharmacy (1990) and Medicine (1994) from Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia, and completed postgraduate training in Internal Medicine (1998) followed by residency in Clinical Pharmacology (2000), a fellowship in Medical Toxicology (2002), and a PhD in Clinical Epidemiology (2003), all at the University of Toronto. He has received certification from the American Board of Internal Medicine, the American Board of Emergency Medicine (Medical Toxicology), and the American Board of Clinical Pharmacology.
He is presently the Sunnybrook site director for the program in Clinical Pharmacology & Toxicology and is actively involved with the Royal College of Physicians and Surgeons subspecialty program in Clinical Pharmacology and Toxicology as a member of the Nucleus committee and Vice Chair of the Examinations committee.
In addition to his clinical, teaching, and administrative activities, Dr. Juurlink maintains an active research program in the field of drug safety. His areas of particular interest include drug safety, adverse drug events, the consequences of drug-drug interactions in clinical practice, and the epidemiology of suicide and deliberate self-poisoning.
Ziad Kazzi, MD, FACMT
Georgia Poison Center / Emory University
Raised in Beirut, Lebanon, Dr. Kazzi trained in Emergency Medicine at Emory University in Atlanta. He served as a Chief Resident before completing a subspecialty fellowship in Medical Toxicology at Emory University and the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta. He is board certified in both Emergency Medicine and Medical Toxicology.
From 2005-2008, Dr. Kazzi joined the Department of Emergency Medicine at the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) where he served as a Medical Toxicologist for the Regional Poison Control Center in Birmingham and the Alabama Poison Center. Currently, he is an Associate Professor at the department of Emergency Medicine and the Director of the International Toxicology Postdoctoral Fellowship Program at Emory University. He is also the Assistant Medical Director of the Georgia Poison Center and a Guest Researcher at the CDC National Center of Environmental Health.
As an emergency physician and toxicologist, Dr. Kazzi specializes in the recognition, triage and management of poisonings and holds a deep interest in the areas of Radiation and International Toxicology. He is also currently serving as the President of the Middle East & North Africa Clinical Toxicology Association whose mission is to advance the care of poisoned patients and prevent poisonings in the MENA region.
Ayrn O'Connor, MD, FACMT
Dr. O'Connor currently serves as the Associate Fellowship Director at Banner—University Medical Center in Phoenix, Arizona. She actively participates in the graduate medical education of medical students, residents and fellows as well as providing clinical care for the patients encountered through a busy admitting and consulting medical toxicology service. She holds an appointment as Associate Professor in Emergency Medicine at the University of Arizona—College of Medicine where she is active in providing the pharmacology curriculum to the first, second and third year medical students. Furthermore, she is responsible for the fourth year medical student and resident toxicology elective offered at Banner—University Medical Center. She graduated from Franklin College in 1996 with a bachelor's degree in Chemistry. In 2000, she earned her M.D. from Indiana University School of Medicine. She completed her residency and fellowship at Indiana University in Emergency Medicine and Toxicology in 2003 and 2005, respectively. Dr. O'Connor joined the faculty at Banner—University Medical Center in 2005 as a clinical toxicologist and educator and is board certified in emergency medicine and toxicology.
Evan Schwarz, MD, FACMT
Washington University School of Medicine
Dr. Schwarz attended medical school at the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston, Texas before completing a residency in Emergency Medicine at Washington University School of Medicine in Saint Louis, Missouri. After residency, he completed a fellowship in Medical Toxicology at the University of Texas Southwestern School of Medicine in Dallas, Texas before returning to Missouri as an Assistant Professor of Emergency Medicine at Washington University School of Medicine. Since returning to Missouri, he has become board certified in Addiction Medicine. Currently, he is the Medical Toxicology Fellowship Director and co-director of the Medical Toxicology and Addiction Medicine Clinic. In addition, he is the director of the medical student and resident rotations. He is also very active in ACMT and is an active member of multiple committees. He is also involved at the medical school as one of 3 Advisory Deans in the Office of Student Affairs and has been on the Board of Directors for the Missouri College of Emergency Physicians since 2012.
Andrew Stolbach, MD, MPH, FACMT
Dr. Stolbach is Board Certified in Emergency Medicine and Medical Toxicology. He serves as a consultant to the Maryland Poison Center, is a member of the Johns Hopkins Hospital P&T Committee, and is a Johns Hopkins IRB co-Chair.
He was a Magna cum laude graduate of Pennsylvania State University with a Bachelor's of Science in Life Science along with a minor in history. He furthered his education at the University of Maryland, School of Medicine and received his Doctorate of Medicine Degree in 2002. Dr. Stolbach completed his Emergency Medicine Residency at St. Luke's Roosevelt Hospital Center in New York City from 2002-2005 where he was Chief Resident. He completed his Fellowship in Medical Toxicology at Bellevue Medical Center and New York University School of Medicine.
Dr. Stolbach has received Honors and Awards including: The University Honors Medal for Scholarship in History (1998); Phi Beta Kappa Honor Society (1998); a 2010 ACMT/McNeil Products Award for Acetaminophen-Related Research and a grant from ATSDR for Airborne Particulate Matter Education. He is recognized as a Fellow of the American College of Emergency Medicine, American College of Medical Toxicology, and American Academy of Clinical Toxicology.
Dr. Stolbach has developed a 10-part online toxicology training program that is currently being used by a number of emergency medicine residency programs. He has also created toxicology webinars and online modules for the American College of Medical Toxicology and United States ATSDR. He is currently writing a opioid prescribing teaching module for emergency and primary care providers.
Dr. Stolbach has multiple publications to his credit and many accomplishments and accreditations in his career including: In 1998, Dr. Stolbach was the Northeast Regional Greco-Roman Wrestling, Silver Medalist; In 2001, he completed the Marine Corps Marathon; In 2003, 2004, and 2006 he completed the New York City Marathon; In 2005, he completed the Baltimore Marathon.
Timothy | 2,191 |
This year I attended the Thumper Thaw which was held at the Blue Ridge Motorcycle Campground in Cruso, North Carolina. The Thumper Thaw is an event held by member of F650.com. F650.com is a site<|fim_middle|> The following morning we woke up and were on the road before 7am. Virginia is a long state and riding on I81 was quite boring. We were home by noon. It was nice to be home. | for owners of the BMW F650 motorcycle. People from all over the east coast showed up at the Thumper Thaw to spend a few days riding the Blue Ridge Parkway and through the mountains of North Carolina and Tennessee.
I left Harrisburg, Pennsylvania with my friend Daneen and Mike. We headed south through Virginia to the town of Buchanan where we had a motel reserved for the night.
Our first stop was Woodstock, Virginia where we ate at Adobe's Mexican Grill. This is the crew who cooked us lunch.
We then took some back roads that ran south along 81 to get to the top of the Blue Ridge Parkway. Here we are at the entrance to the north part of the parkway.
As we were getting ready to leave we found that Daneen's motorcycle had a dead battery. She was running all of her heated gear on high which seemed to have drained the battery. We got her going with a push start. It was cold and windy on the parkway. But quite beautiful.
We made it to our hotel and grabbed some dinner at the restaurant at the base of the hill. We had a cute waitress! But no photos of her. In the morning we ate at the same place, then packed our gear. We had a long day ahead of us.
We got lost in Roanoke, Virginia trying to find a side road that headed south between I81 and the Blue Ridge Parkway. We probably should have just taken the parkway. Finally we hit North Carolina and travelled the parkway south until we got to Little Switzerland. There the parkway was closed so we headed off the parkway on the steepest, most twisted road I have ever been on. We descended for miles. Finally at the bottom we pulled over to take a break. The temperature at the lower altitude was 85 degrees! I had to shed some layers as I was now roasting!
We then found I40 and headed towards Asheville, North Carolina followed by Cruso.
We got to the campground and unpacked into our cabins.
The following few days were spent riding through the mountains of this beautiful area and relaxing at the campground.
I took a trip over the mountain towards Brevard, North Carolina just to photograph the Looking Glass Falls.
I had dinner on Saturday night with Ike and a few others at a nearby diner.
I had the fresh trout which was delicious!
And had to take my photo with our cute waitress.
The sun sets on the mountains of North Carolina.
Sunday morning came quick and it was time to pack up and head north.
We headed north of Asheville and rode through Tennessee and into southern Virginia. It was getting hot so we decided to grab a motel at Natural Bridge, Virginia. I had the worst dinner and service of my life there. But it was nice to get in out of the heat. | 576 |
I have another requested tutorial featuring watercolor. This time, I'm sharing an easy way to create these realistic trees using the Coming Up Roses stamp set.
I am having a blast experimenting with our multi-step stamp sets! And I'm sharing not one, but four different types of trees that you can create.
I'd love to see what you come up with! Thanks so much for stopping by today!
Hi, It's Kara! Recently I have been experimenting with different mediums to create marble effects. My favorite so far is definitely the nail polish technique and I'm excited to share it with you.
It's so easy, a little messy, but the effects<|fim_middle|> from me! | are so beautiful. When you lift your paper up and look at your results you'll have one of those, "Ohhh!" moments. The results are different every time.
Before you begin, make sure you are in a well ventilated area because the smell from the nail polish can be quite strong. If you've just gotten a manicure you might want to wear gloves. Chances are you'll get some polish on your hands. But, everything cleans up easily afterwards with nail polish remover. I like to shake all of my colors and remove the caps before I begin. You have some time, but do have to work quickly since the nail polish begins to dry.
Drizzle each color onto the surface of the water with a steady hand. You want the polish to float on the surface rather than sink to the bottom of the container.
Once you have added all of your colors use your tool to swirl the colors together until you are happy with how it looks.
Lay your watercolor paper onto the surface of the water and lightly press making sure the entire surface of the paper makes contact with the polish and then lift off.
Set the piece aside to dry. Once it is dry you can use it as a background, die cut it, stamp on it, glitter it, or anything else you can imagine!
Here are a few examples of how I have used the marbled papers I have created.
I hope you give this technique a try. Think beyond just paper. See those pencils and wood veneer butterflies? Yup, I marbled them too!
Happy Mother's Day weekend everyone! I hope it is off to a great start!
Today, I have a requested tutorial featuring Fresh Cut Florals and watercoloring.
This is a deceptively easy technique. Watch below to see how you can use your stamps, Tim Holtz Distress Inks and a little water to create gorgeous cards with that hand painted look.
You may have to experiment a little bit to figure out the water to ink ratio that you are comfortable with. Remember, there is not a right or wrong way and each result will be slightly different and unique. But once you get the hang of it, you'll be able to create these in no time. This example took me about 20 minutes from start to finish including drying time.
I realize that we are out of stock on what seems like everything. We have several orders due in and should be fully restocked on almost everything in the store by the end of this month.
In fact, we have several new wholesalers coming on and to keep up with demand, we will not be releasing any new stamps or dies in June. Instead, we are devoting the entire budget to restocking the store.
We will however be releasing five new ink colors and re-inkers for all of our PURECOLOR dye inks!
I find myself quite fond of that particular word die from Epic Dad. Once I pulled it out of the package I didn't want to put it away. On the card below I used it to create a 'shadow word'.
I stamped the rays from the retired Super Star stamp set once on the panel and once on the die cut word, checking the alignment carefully. I also die cut the word with a strip of the pink cardstock at the bottom, it makes the further alignment a bit more fiddly but it's worth the fuss.
I stamped the word 'dad' from the same retired set, in Lake House Dye Ink and the rays + the sentiment above the rays in Wild Mango. The pattern from Borders and Backgrounds 4 was stamped at the bottom of the panel in black. I finished the card by adding a few diagonal strips of White cardstock to the card base.
I inked up Borders & Backgrounds 4 again here, in order to create a masked background on this stepped up one-layer card. I stamped the pieces in Sweet Gelato, Sweet Nectar, Bloomsberry and Silver Lining Dye Inks. Then I added a thin strip of black cardstock to the bottom of the card.
I pulled out the retired Super Star stamp set once again, to stamp the wording above and under the Epic Dad die cut. I also stamped the arrows from Cupid's Arrow to accentuate the word.
The word 'epic' was die cut once from white and once from black cardstock, and the pieces aligned to create a shadow.
I misted the panel first, and once dry I applied a thin layer of white gesso over some of the misted areas to mute down and grunge the colours. Then I stamped the sentiment, partly in black and partly in White Pigment Ink & Cranberry Crush Dye Ink. I stamped the outline in white first, and then the filling in red. The effect is subtle but makes enough of a statement.
I also stamped he word 'epic' a couple more times around the sentiment, using the secondary stamping technique - I stamped off some ink on scrap paper first, and then on the panel with the remaining ink, thus making a lighter impression. I used Appletini and Silver Lining Dye Inks for this.
I finished the card with some washi tape and a wood veneer star, which I smudged some more ink over.
Thank you for joining me this week, I hope you had as much fun checking my cards out, as I had making them!
Hi it's Chupa again, I have a couple of colourful, feminine cards to share today!
I used a Foliage Frame Die to frame a layer of polka dotted patterned paper, white embossed the sentiment from Hand Lettered Hello on the paper, and gave the butterflies from my old favourite - Fauna & Flora I, the same treatment. I white embossed them on a different piece of patterned paper, fussy cut and mounted inside the frame.
I filled in the letters in the 'hello' word with a yellow Copic marker.
The edges of the frame are glittered. I created them by applying strips of double-sided tape around the frame and coating them with fine loose glitter.
Here I used a Hand Lettered Hello Die to die cut negative space in a White cardstock panel, and sponged red and orange Distress Inks on a scrap piece of cardstock underneath.
I stamped the foliage from Spring Blooms in Sweet Nectar Dye Ink, and added the sentiment from Hand Lettered Hello on a small ribbon banner from Banner Trio Die. Then I mounted the panel on an Oatmeal card along with a couple of layers of patterned paper.
I finished the card by adding a flower arrangement, stamped with Spring Blooms stamp set and die cut with a companion die.
See you tomorrow for a final day | 1,372 |
Courtney is an Arizona native and has been a licensed esthetician for over 15 years. She loves helping clients achieve their desired results. She specializes in brazilians.
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Chanel earrings are<|fim_middle|>. How gorgeous is that? | too beautiful to ignore. Even if you're looking for a handbag at the boutique, chances are you will end up with a pair of earrings as well.
In every season, there will be new earrings released by this brand. And for the Fall Winter 2017 Collection, we're seeing designs that will make every heart skip a beat. There are earrings with pearls, with CC logo's, with Camellia's and so much more. Here are our favorite two styles.
Camellia flower with pearl in the center, you get the best of both worlds. This earring is designed with the house's most popular symbol; the Camellia. The center is embellished with a gorgeous white pearl. And there is even a logo crafted on one of the petal, can you see the CC?
Our second favorite pair of earring has to do with love. This earring is made with heart-shape representing love. Then it's refined with a CC logo in metal gold hardware. Now you have a heart and CC, which basically means I heart Chanel | 218 |
Three tries for Tommy Seymour in win over Fiji
Stuart Hogg to leave Warriors at the end of the season
Posted by Editor on November 11, 2018 08:30 AM | No comments | Print | E-mail author
Stuart Hogg will leave Warriors at the end of the season
Glasgow Warriors full-back Stuart Hogg will leave the club at the end of<|fim_middle|> send-off I want to give the club and the fans."
Glasgow Warriors Managing Director, Nathan Bombrys, said: �Stuart has been a great player and ambassador for our club and we're disappointed to lose an outstanding man.
"He has come through our Academy system, become a Centurion and won the PRO14 title with our club.
"He's used his time in Glasgow as a springboard to play 63 times for Scotland and earn the Six Nations Player of the Championship twice and represent the British and Irish Lions in 2013 and 2017.
"When the time comes he'll leave with our best wishes, but until then we know Stuart still has some unfinished business in Glasgow."
Glasgow Warriors Head Coach, Dave Rennie, added: "This is a great opportunity for Hoggy and he has our full support. He is a top man, loved by all and will be missed." | the season.
The 26-year-old has made 109 appearances (100 starts) for Glasgow Warriors since joining the club in 2010, scoring 29 tries so far and amassing 215 points.
The full-back marked his breakthrough season in 2011/12 by scoring a hat-trick away to reigning PRO12 champions Munster.
Hogg has since gone on to play a key role in many of the club's most memorable occasions, including the 2014/15 Guinness PRO12 title-winning campaign, and Glasgow's run to a first-ever European quarter-final in 2016/17.
The youngest Warrior to make 100 appearances, Hogg reached the milestone against Edinburgh at Scotstoun in May 2017.
He has earned 63 caps for his country and is a two-time British & Irish Lion and back-to-back Six Nations Player of the Championship (2016 and 2017).
Hogg said: "This is a decision that's taken a great deal of thought as I've loved my nine seasons at Glasgow Warriors. I said I would decide my next step for family and rugby reasons and feel now is the right time to gain new rugby experiences and push myself in different situations where I will be challenged and hopefully improve further.
"'M proud of what I have achieved with Glasgow Warriors and Scotland so far and would like to thank the club and Scottish Rugby for all their support. They have supported me when I had made my decision to move on and I know they did all they could and I'm grateful for their support.
"We are still less than halfway through my final season at the Warriors and, as current Conference A leaders in the Guinness PRO14 and second in our Heineken Champions Cup pool, there's a chance to do something special in my last season at the club. That's the | 399 |
Pictured above: One-on-one session for Money $avvy, a program run by the John Howard Society of Ottawa.
November is Financial Literacy Month in Canada and the perfect time to reflect on how we are doing when it comes to building the financial knowledge, skills and confidence of Canadians.
In the five short years since the federal Task Force on Financial Literacy issued its landmark report, financial literacy efforts in Canada have come a long way. Our national and local media contain daily financial literacy stories, grassroots programs and networks have sprung up across the country, and the OECD just released rankings showing Canada to be the third most financially literate nation among its 29 members even though we still have significant room for improvement.
Video: What is Financial Empowerment?
Prosper Canada announced the selection of Canada's first Financial Empowerment Champion (FEC) organizations earlier this month. Over the next four and a half years FECs and their partners will work with Prosper Canada to measurably improve the financial well-being of 175,000 Canadians living on low incomes in their communities.
The expansion of the Financial Empowerment and<|fim_middle|> surrounding area that is focused on helping community members living in low income build money management skills and effective budgeting practices, as well as help them gain access to available government benefits and subsidies.
In this video, Canadian financial empowerment leaders share what financial empowerment means to them and the important work their organizations are doing to improve the financial well-being of Canadians living on low incomes.
What per cent of Canadians are preparing themselves financially for retirement?
Join Elizabeth Mulholland, CEO, Prosper Canada, for a discussion on how social enterprise is being used to address poverty, social isolation, addiction, employment and a host of other social and environmental challenges. This session is Part 4 of a 7 Part Webinar Series with Al Etmanski and Vickie Cammack.
On November 30, 2016 from 1:00PM – 2:30PM (EST), we'll hear from three community organizations in Canada about the strategies they use to support tax filing in alternative approaches to the tax clinics – both at tax time and year round.
Our 7-week online curriculum is designed to prepare frontline workers to deliver an easy-to-use program to meet the needs of Newcomers to Canada and other vulnerable groups.
The AFOA Canada 17th National Conference "Aboriginal Economy – Building a Stronger Future" will be held in Calgary, Alberta from February 7-9, 2017 at the Calgary TELUS Convention Centre. | Problem Solving (FEPS) Program is achieving positive results. Read the FEPS Year 1 Report which summarizes the first nine months of the program, and includes stories on how the program is helping people with low incomes achieve financial well-being. Our FEPS partners are West Neighbourhood House, Jane-Finch Community and Family Centre, Agincourt Community Services Association, The Working Centre, and EBO Financial Education Centre.
This new report offers a practical and useful introduction to behavioural thinking and the ways it can be used to strengthen financial empowerment supports for Canadians with low incomes. The report was co-developed and funded by Deloitte LLP and Prosper Canada, and supported by leading Canadian and international behavioural science experts.
Prosper Canada's Research and Evaluation team Salima Shariff and Lilian Knorr attended the National Research Symposium on Financial Literacy earlier this month to introduce the new Financial Literacy Outcome Evaluation tool to support evaluation of financial literacy programs. Sign up at www.outcomeeval.org to receive a notification when the tool goes live soon.
In a previous blog post I reflected on some of the financial difficulties faced by young people from care.
An unprecedented eight financial institutions and three community based partners have launched a new collaborative in Edmonton and the | 249 |
A Liability with duration 5.8 mature at 5 yrs and 7 yrs, there are no internl cash flows.
Q2. . Which of bond will be best to fund the liability?
Q3. Which of risk will Mortgage Pas<|fim_middle|> Compounding Semi annually is called BEY. | sthrough have when interest rate decline?
A. negative convexity B. credit risk C market Risk D. Extension Risk.
Q4. Suppose a bond's quoted price is 105 7/32 and the accrued interest is $23.54. If the bond has a par value of $1,000, what is the bond's flat price?
A) $1,000.00. B) $1,023.54. C) $1,075.73. D) $1,052.19.
A) applies if an issuer has defaulted.
B) is paid when a security trades ex-coupon.
C) equals the present value of all cash flows, plus accrued interest.
D) is usually less than the clean price.
Q6. An investor has a 1-year, 10% semiannual coupon bond with a price of $975. if the 6-month Treasury bill(T-bill) has a holding period yield of 6%, what is the 1-year theoretical spot rate on a bond equivalent basis?
NB: the nominal rate attached with compounding Annually is called EAR and nominal rate with | 253 |
The Cleveland Museum of Art
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Portrait of a Man, possibly Girolamo Rosati
(Italian, 1480-1556)
Italy, 16th century
Framed: 135.9 x 128 x 8.6 cm (53 1/2 x 50 3/8 x 3 3/8 in.); Unframed: 108.2 x 100.5 cm (42 5/8 x 39 9/16 in.)
Gift of the Hanna Fund 1950.250
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The gesture of the elegantly dressed man is a mystery. Is he rising from his chair to address someone or is he pointing to something outside the frame? His right hand rests on a piece of paper (a letter?), while on the table are clover—a symbol of abundance, good fortune, and happy marriage—and jasmine, associated with purity and love, further emphasized by the roses on the trellis. There may have been a companion portrait of the sitter's bride, to whom he acknowledges his devotion. Another recent interpretation identifies the sitter as Girolamo Rosati, a high official in Fermo, on Italy's east coast. The paper may be a design for one of his important architectural projects, to which he may be pointing in the distance. The interrupted moment is a naturalistic touch characteristic of Lotto, quite distinct from the formality of the other Italian Renaissance portraits in the museum's collection. Though this portrait clearly articulates the man's status, Lotto emphasizes his individuality and interiority as much as a socially constructed identity.
Signed lower right: ".L. Lotus 15[...]"
Imperial collection, Vienna;
- 1923 Kunsthistorisches Museum (Vienna, Austria), sold to Moritz Lindemann, 1923;
1923 Moritz Lindemann (Vienna, Austria),sold to Wilhelm von Ofenheim, 1923;
1923 - 1930 Wilhelm von Ofenheim, 1860-1930 (Vienna, Austria), upon his death, held in trust by his heirs, 1930;
1930 - 1939 Von Ofenheim family trust, sold to Rosenberg and Stiebel, 1939;
[Rosenberg & Stiebel, New York], sold to the Cleveland Museum of Art, 1950.
The Cleveland Museum of Art. The Cleveland Museum of Art Catalogue of Paintings, Part 3: European Paintings of the 16th, 17th, and 18th Centuries. Cleveland, OH: The Cleveland Museum of Art, 1982. Reproduced: p. 367; Mentioned: p. 366-368
The Cleveland Museum of Art. The Cleveland Museum of Art Handbook. Cleveland, OH: The Cleveland Museum of Art, 1958. Mentioned and Reproduced: cat. no. 413 archive.org
The Cleveland Museum of Art. Handbook of the Cleveland Museum of Art/1966. Cleveland, OH: The Cleveland Museum of Art, 1966. Reproduced: p. 97 archive.org
The Cleveland Museum of Art. Handbook of the Cleveland Museum of Art/1978. Cleveland, OH: The Cleveland Museum of Art, 1978. Reproduced: p. 106 archive.org
Frangi, Francesco and Maria Cristina Passoni. Attorno a Lotto: Naturalismo e Psicologia nel Ritratto Rinascimentale. Milano: Skira, 2017. Reproduced: p<|fim_middle|>2-November 19, 1963).
Renaissance Venice and the North: Crosscurrents in the time of Bellini, Dürer, and Titian. Palazzo Grassi, Venice (September 5, 1999-January 9, 2000).
Lorenzo Lotto. Scuderie del Quirinale (organizer) (February 25-June 12, 2011).
{{cite web|title=Portrait of a Man, possibly Girolamo Rosati|url=https://clevelandart.org/art/1950.250|author=Lorenzo Lotto|year=1533–34|access-date=19 July 2019|publisher=Cleveland Museum of Art}}
P - Italian 16th & 17th Century
European Painting and Sculpture
Type of artwork:
Gift of the Hanna Fund
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The information about this object, including provenance information, is based on historic information and may not be currently accurate or complete. Research on objects is an ongoing process, but the information about this object may not reflect the most current information available to CMA. If you notice a mistake or have additional information about this object, please email collectionsdata@clevelandart.org.
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Request a digital file from Image Services that is not available through CC0, a detail image, or any image with a color bar. | . 30, fig. 8
Dal Pozzolo, Enrico Maria. Lorenzo Lotto:Il Richiamo delle Marche: Luoghi, Tempi e Persone. Milano: Skira, 2018. Mentioned: p. 75; Reproduced: p. 76, fig. 5
Dal Pozzolo, E. M. "Two Paitnings of Samson by Lorenzo Lotto at Charlecote Park." The Burlington Magazine 160. no. 1385 (Aug. 2018): 640-645. Mention: p. 26
Dossier de l'art. "Exposition a Londres: Lorenzo Lotto Portraitiste." Dossier de l'art 264, (Nov. 2018): 4-13. Reproduced: p. [4-5], 12
Pozzolo, Enrico Maria Dal. Lorenzo Lotto: Portraits. Madrid: Museo Nacional del Prado, 2018. Mentioned and Reproduced: no. 29, p. 42, 284-286
Amsterdam, Rijksmuseum, 1933-1939 (lent by Bruikleen von Ofenheim).
Amsterdam, Stedelijk Museum, 1934: "italiaansche Kunst in Nederlandsche bezit," cat. no. 197, p. 79, pl. 197.
Venice, Palazzo Ducale, 1953: "Mostra di Lorenzo Lotto," p. 110, pl. 69 (Catalogue by Pietro Zampetti).
CMA, 1956: "The Venetian Tradition," cat. no. 24, p. 26, pl. I (Catalogue by Henry S Francis).
Columbus (Ohio) Gallery of Fine Ars, October 27-November 27 1961: "The Renaissance Image of Man and the World," cat. no. 29, repr.
Waltham, Massachusetts, Brandeis University, Insititute of Fine Arts, May 3-June 9, 1963: "Major Masters of the Renaissance, A Loan Exhibition of the Poses," cat. no. 11, p. 18, illus.
CMA, 1963: "Style, Truth and the Portrait," cat. no. 1, color frontispiece, (cataloge by Rèmy G. Saisselin).
Venice, Italy (9/5/99 - 1/9/00) Palazzo Grassi "Renaissance Venice and the North: Crosscurrents in the Time of Bellini, Dürer and Titian," no. 91, pp. 384-385.
Scuderie del Quirinale, Rome (2/25/2011 - 6/12/2011): "Lorenzo Lotto" ex. cat. no. 41, p. 224-225.
The Venetian Tradition. The Cleveland Museum of Art (November 8, 1956-January 1, 1957).
In Memoriam: Leonard C. Hanna, Jr.. The Cleveland Museum of Art (March 4-April 7, 1958).
Style, Truth and the Portrait. The Cleveland Museum of Art (October | 778 |
National Radar Staff
Introducing 2023 Dream All-American Offensive Lineman, Ethan Fonseca
ETHAN<|fim_middle|> size at 6'3 and 300 pounds. He drives defenders off of the ball. He stays low and has a powerful base. He has good feet as well. He can get to the second level in the run game and pass protect for the quarterback. We are excited to see him display his talents in Inglewood, CA." | FONSECA TO PLAY IN 2023 DREAM ALL-AMERICAN BOWL
CALIFORNIA (November 1, 2022) — Ethan Fonseca was nominated and accepted into the 2023 Dream All-American Bowl taking place on December 30, 2022 at SoFi Stadium, home of the Los Angeles Rams and Chargers. After rigorous review from the committee, the top athletes were invited to play in the exclusive all-star game and participate in a weekend long event of developmental activities and performance on a nationwide platform. Dream All-American Bowl showcases the nation's best senior and underclassmen athletes. Participation allows players to learn from some of the best teachers of the game, former NFL players and current college coaches.
"Ethan has great | 162 |
May 17, 2022 Karim Shahine
Premier League 2021/22: Manchester City come back from behind to avoid Hammer blow – tactical analysis
The fixture at the London Stadium had a lot riding on it. After disappointing European semi-final exits for both teams earlier this month, Manchester City's sole focus has now shifted to the Premier League, while avoiding defeat would ensure European football next season for West Ham.
City travelled to London on the back of scoring 22 goals in their last 5 league games. Victory at West Ham on Sunday would have all but sealed a fourth Premier League title in five years for Pep Guardiola's side. However, season-ending injuries to Ruben Dias, Kyle Walker and John Stones has left the team with a fractured defensive line and forced Pep to start the game with Fernandinho at centre-back.
A lacklustre first-half City display was exploited by two-goal hero Jarrod Bowen. The champions managed to fight their way back in the second half to level the scores courtesy of a Jack Grealish strike and Vladimir Coufal's own goal. There was a further twist when Riyad Mahrez had a late penalty saved to deny City an incredible comeback win.
Despite surrendering a two-goal first-half lead, West Ham managed to hold on to a point which secures European football for next season. Whether that is in the form of the Europa League or Conference League will be decided on the final day. The occasion also served as Mark Noble's final home appearance as a Hammer after nearly 20 years in the first team.
This tactical analysis will break down some of the key tactics we saw in Sunday's match.
David Moyes made one change to the team that comfortably cruised past Norwich 4-0 last week. Saïd Benrahma was replaced by Tomáš Souček in midfield.
<|fim_middle|> half. Mahrez and Grealish hogged the touchline while Cancelo and Zinchenko tucked inside. The main reasons were to isolate the wide players while also stopping West Ham's counterattacks. This switch also gave Bernardo and De Bruyne more freedom to operate in the right and left inside channels.
City began passing quicker and switching the play more often to Mahrez and Grealish as they enjoyed extra space on the wings. This tactical tweak caused problems for West Ham. The positioning of City's full-backs and midfielders meant that Coufal and Cresswell could not get close to their wingers in time. As a result, City started to move the ball into more dangerous areas.
City found joy on the right side, with De Bruyne supporting Mahrez with direct, aggressive runs inside and sometimes on the overlap. In the 49th minute, Rodri receives the ball from Grealish on the left wing and switches play towards Mahrez. West Ham didn't shift over towards their left side fast enough, which saw an angle open for Mahrez to feed De Bruyne inside the box to put in a dangerous cross. The instant switch of play from one side to the other from City helped them create the overloads.
Around a minute later, Cancelo has the ball in midfield and shifts it out to Mahrez again. At this point, City are in total control and are suffocating the hosts.
Mahrez twists and turns while De Bruyne makes an overlapping run around his teammate. The Algerian draws three defenders towards him and slides it to De Bruyne to supply another cross into the six-yard box. These movements and fast switches of play resembled the Man City we knew this season, much improved from the first half.
We saw Mahrez and Grealish being more direct and aggressive in the second period. 85% of Grealish's passes in the second half were in the final third (23 passes) compared to 70% in the first half (16 passes). As for Mahrez, he provided 14 passes into the final third compared to only 4 passes in the first half. In addition, Mahrez's % of passes backwards dropped from 50% in the first half to 23% in the second.
Grealish's deflected strike minimized the deficit and City were able to equalize as Coufal headed Mahrez's freekick into his own net. At that point City were in full control, but the odd slip up amongst the defenders gifted West Ham a few sniffs of goal. Both Laporte and Fernandinho suffered lapses of concentration and communication breakdowns with Ederson in the second half, but the Hammers were not able to capitalize.
Oddly, despite the scores level and time running out, Pep did not make any substitutions during the game. "I was thinking about that (making substitutions) but the guys who were playing were playing good and the game was in a high, high rhythm, so today we decided to stay with those guys," Guardiola told Sky Sports after that match. The same applied on this latest London trip against Crystal Palace, when City drew 0-0 and Pep opted not to make any changes.
Man City took as high as 31 shots in Sunday's game, whereas West Ham had only six shots. The outcome? Both teams scored two goals. What City missed more than a fit center-back in Dias or Stones was a center forward, a point of reference in the attack, maybe a player like Erling Haaland, who is on his way to the Etihad next season and will be hungry to get on the end of the blaze of balls City will supply for him.
For the home side, it proved to be the perfect night to bid farewell to Mr. West Ham, their captain, Mark Noble. An entertaining game, the London Stadium roaring, and European qualification now guaranteed.
Fabiański's penalty save to deny Mahrez and Manchester City the three points and one hand on the Premier League trophy could prove to be vital in the title race. It could mean one more delicious opportunity for a narrative twist.
If Liverpool do their job against Southampton on Tuesday night, the title will be decided on the final day. Wolves travel to Anfield while City host an Aston Villa side managed by Liverpool legend Steven Gerrard and features a certain Philippe Countinho in midfield. It couldn't, could it?
Freelance football analyst. Passionate about the tactical aspect of the game. Firm believer that every dressing room needs a Roy Keane. | West Ham United XI (4-2-3-1): Łukasz Fabiański; Vladimir Coufal, Craig Dawson, Kurt Zouma, Aaron Cresswell; Tomáš Souček, Declan Rice; Jarrod Bowen, Manuel Lanzini, Pablo Fornals; Michail Antonio.
As for Man City, defensive injuries saw Fernandinho once again partner Aymeric Laporte in central defense. Riyad Mahrez, Gabriel Jesus and Jack Grealish came in for İlkay Gündoğan, Raheem Sterling and Phil Foden.
Manchester City XI (4-3-3): Ederson; João Cancelo, Fernandinho, Aymeric Laporte, Oleksandr Zinchenko; Rodrigo, Bernardo Silva, Kevin De Bruyne; Riyad Mahrez, Jack Grealish, Gabriel Jesus.
Team shapes
The game was mostly played in West Ham's half. City enjoyed 77% possession and completed 668 passes (West Ham: 180 passes). West Ham would initially defend in a 4-2-3-1 shape during Man City's build up from the back.
That shape would change into a 4-4-2 as City attacked and camped around the Hammers' 18-yard box. Against such a low block, City usually forms a lot of rotations and emphasize play down the left-hand side. But during the first half, City's passing was slow and labored. They found it difficult to build any sort of rhythm and break down the congested West Ham defensive unit. Bowen and Fornals were able to occupy the outside option, with the full-backs and ball sided midfielder blocking the half-spaces.
Positioning is one of Guardiola's basic fundamentals. The positioning of his wingers and full-backs in the first half was not what we have been used to seeing from City this season. During large parts, Mahrez and Grealish were tucking inside while Cancelo and Zinchenko provided the width. The idea was to stretch West Ham's ranks, but City found it difficult to get the ball into the feet of Bernardo and De Bruyne in dangerous pockets as the spaces became too crowded.
West Ham's long balls and direct runs
As expected, West Ham would not see much of the ball during the game. Their main strategy was to play long balls towards Antonio and Souček attempting to win the first and second duels. Each of West Ham's goals came from long, straight crosses that a scrambled City defensive line failed to deal with. Laporte and Fernandinho were given the runaround by Bowen and Antonio, while Zinchenko was positionally suspect at left-back for both goals.
In the 24th minute, Fabianski sent a long kick towards Antonio. City are playing a dangerous high line, especially without Walker's recovery runs to save them at times.
The City defense is disrupted as Fernandinho is dragged out with Antonio and Laporte tracks Lanzini's run, freeing up the space for Bowen in behind. The ball reaches Fornals who quickly lashes it for Bowen as Zinchenko is caught napping. He rounds Ederson and slides the ball into the far corner.
Throughout the afternoon, City struggled to deal with the out-ball towards Antonio, he was able to outmuscle Fernandinho several times. On the brink of halftime, Fabianski launched another long ball which was flicked on by Souček. Because of the positioning of the West Ham attackers around City's back four, the City defenders could not afford to jump out and challenge Souček for the header, leaving Bernardo with an impossible task against the 6ft midfielder.
Antonio reacts first and wins the second ball, controls well and dinks it over Laporte into Bowen who made a run in the opposite direction. He was through again and was able to compose himself and finish between Fernandinho's legs into the bottom corner for his 12th league goal of the season. With 10 assists to his name as well, the forward must be playing himself into Gareth Southgate's thoughts for England's World Cup squad.
West Ham's average positions show how they set up in a deep low block throughout the game. Bowen's position further emphasized the team's strategy to place him high up the pitch in that right channel and feed him balls in behind, exactly how the goals were created.
West Ham average positions
City's second-half adjustments
Guardiola switched to a more traditional approach from his wingers in the second | 941 |
Have you always wanted to gain infant experience?! Do you love babies and are willing to learn more?! We have a great part-time position in UES with the family's new baby.<|fim_middle|> very sweet and sensitive girl. She is very athletic and loves gymnastics and swimming. She also loves art and crafts and being read to. She is sensitive and introspective, though she is very social and loves playdates and playing at the park with her friends. She has a severe peanut allergy.
The SmartSitter will meet mom at NYU or downtown watch the baby, in mom's student office, while she is in class. She is a PhD student in sociology at NYU and the department is located in Soho. They may also accompany her and the baby to immigration court, where she does occasional doing fieldwork, and watch the baby in the waiting room while I am doing observations of court proceedings, so someone open minded and flexible and open to adventure is a plus! They may also work at the family's home alongside their other caregiver and older kids from time to time.
This is a great opportunity for those looking to gain infant experience! Please note that the flu vaccine and Tdap shot is required! | You will be helping mom out while she continues her graduate studies. The family is looking for someone fun, engaging, communicative, city savvy, organized, flexible and open minded, vaccinated, and trustworthy to help with the baby! The core schedule is Mondays from 2 to 7 PM, and Thursdays from 9 to 1 PM, plus one flex morning or afternoon. It's $25/hour for 12-15 hours/week. The position will begin immediately!
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Riscossa delivers directly to your home the aromas and flavors of the Mediterranean tradition. All the products we offer are rich in taste and ensure a healthy and balanced diet, as they are prepared using simple and natural ingredients.
Wholes<|fim_middle|>% organic Italian wheat.
The pantry of Riscossa contains all the best of traditional cuisine: from durum wheat semolina to peeled tomatoes, from specialty egg pastas up to extra virgin olive oil, biscuits and ready-made sauces. The wholesome ingredients at the base of all our offerings promote healthy eating, balanced and rich in flavor.
The various shapes of Riscossa pasta go perfectly with sauces and seasonings typical of Italian regional tradition, but can also provide the ideal starting point for imaginative and unusual recipes. Learn how to create tasty dishes, authentic and easy to prepare. | ome ingredients and a traditional processing method: the basis of the unmistakable taste of Riscossa. We have over one hundred years of experience, yet the passion for our work has remained the same. We always select only the best raw materials, to bring to your table the great tradition of Italian pasta.
The one who chooses Riscossa, always makes a quality choice. Even more so when it comes to our wholegrain Organic pasta, available in five different varieties and produced exclusively with 100 | 102 |
Dealing with cyclical or seasonal demand is a key workforce planning and management challenge in manufacturing shift working environments.
Many businesses have at least one period of the year where production is required to ramp-up significantly.
This can be driven by classic product-related seasonality (e.g. ice cream in summer), securing large orders or marketing offers inflating demand.
Whilst these are often the most important production periods of the year…the wrong shift patterns can also make them the most unprofitable and create significant employee relations challenges.
As specialists in the planning, management and monitoring of optimised shift-based workforces, we often see the juxtaposition of peak production periods harming manufacturers' bottom lines and their relationship with employees.
This tends to occur in businesses which operate fixed shift patterns throughout the year, regardless of demand volatility.
When the busy periods arrive, working capital is put under intense pressure as they often rely on expensive overtime or agency workers to increase labour supply.
Impact budgets significantly - Relying on expensive, short-term labour impacts working capital, erodes margin and can make times of peak demand some of the least profitable.
Take up valuable time - Significant effort is required to recruit, train and manage a temporary workforce for it to deliver the performance levels required during busy production times.
Create performance issues - Capacity gaps, un-motivated agency staff and over-worked full time employees can lead to additional waste and quality problems during a manufacturer's busiest time.
Increase risk - Trying to cover peak demand using overtime can affect employees' work life balance, ultimately demoralising the workforce, harming productivity and impacting retention and employer brand. There is also the risk of significant fines and negative reputational impact for breaching working time regulations or accidents and health issues related to fatigue.
Manufacturers with these issues often know they are operating with shift patterns that are not optimised to demand.
Before looking for a solution, it's key businesses analyse the challenge they face.
Understanding the intricacies of demand variability and volatility is key to establishing an accurate picture of requirements through the day, week, month, season and year.
It's imperative to arrive at 'true demand'. This is often very different to existing understanding of demand, which has been shaped by out-of-date and misaligned shift patterns.
It's also important to analyse overtime, absence and labour cost data to identify patterns and potential resolutions.
Our consultants deploy a methodology that uses data to model demand, cover and throughput requirements, factoring in variations ranging from seasonal peaks to hour-by-hour changes.
This creates accurate forecasts that demonstrates the trended labour supply and demand requirements that should inform shift pattern design and rota planning decisions.
A data-led model is the platform<|fim_middle|> software.
You can arrange a free 1-2-1 consultation with one of our experts via our Shift Planning Clinics.
Alternatively, if you'd like to learn more about workforce optimisation, check out our CPD-certified workforce planning and management events and webinars. | manufacturers need to create a system of responsive resourcing that increases or reduces planned hours in line with the demand profile.
Efficient and flexible shift patterns can be designed around the profile that take over-rostered hours from quieter periods and redeploy them to support peak production.
The possibilities are limitless…ranging from 'high, mid and low' seasonal patterns, right through to specific flex-up/flex-down shifts that can deal with hour-by-hour and day-by-day fluctuations and incorporate appropriate and fair notice for designated employees.
At the heart of these solutions lies a demand-led rostering system which maximises full-time employees contract hours by taking an annualised view of their working time.
Some manufacturers have historically struggled with annualised hours. Given the poor design of some systems we've come across, it's not surprising that its reputation has been harmed.
Whilst the increased certainty around working hours and reduced pressure during peak production is popular with employees, poorly implemented and badly managed annualised hours systems have ultimately tainted perceptions and held-back widespread adoption.
It's something we explore in much more detail in our report: Making annualised hours work for the UK Exploring a 'new' way of working.
It's crucial that when looking to optimise shift patterns and introduce new ways of working that the workforce is engaged in designing solutions that meet their needs, as well as the organisation's.
It's why we put employee engagement and communications at the heart of the optimisation projects supported by our services and consultants.
How systems are managed to remain aligned to factors affecting demand, supply and employee wellbeing is also crucial.
Trying to plan schedules and manage shift workers on seasonal patterns can become extremely complex using multiple spreadsheets or HR, T&A and ERP systems better suited to 9-5 working.
Using these inadequate systems to try and design and manage responsive shift working creates huge administrative overheads, increases the risk of errors, results in a proliferation of spreadsheets with onerous manual processes and ultimately fails to deliver the benefits of workforce optimisation.
The ability to design custom shift lengths and durations…key to building seasonal patterns that ensure supply is aligned to demand.
Scenario modelling capabilities to engage with staff and find optimised solutions for any given season or demand profile.
Calendars which provide an accurate forward view over key information (e.g. who is on shift, their hours worked, availability and skill sets) and provide employees complete visibility over their working hours across the year.
Streamlined workflows, intuitive tools and live dashboards to assess rosters, examine cover delivered, monitor balances/variations/compliance and automated pinpointing of potential capacity gaps, clashes and inconsistencies.
Tools to reschedule resources in real time…adapting schedules, shift patterns and rotas to meet fluctuating demand.
In a highly competitive sector with significant margin and recruitment pressures, efficient and popular shift patterns could make all the difference in 2019.
There is plenty of information on our website if you'd like to know more about Working Time Solutions' services and consultancy that help deliver workforce optimisation in shift working environments.
You'll also find much more detail on the shift pattern design, scheduling, roster management, T&A, compliance & analytics capabilities of our | 641 |
January 2016 Scripture: "Feast upon the words of Christ; for behold, the words of Christ will tell you all things what ye should do" (2 Nephi 32:3).
January Week 1 Topic: The scriptures are the word of God.
Before primary place a set of scriptures in a bag (like a gift bag). Explain to the children that you are going to play 20 questions with them. They can ask you yes/no questions to try to figure out what is in the bag. But they only get 20 questions to ask. So for instance they could ask, "Is it edible?" or they could ask "Is is soft?" If they think they know what it is it could be one of they 20 questions they would say, "Is it (what ever they believe it is)?" If they have not guessed it after the 20 questions. Then give them some hints until they do guess it. Such as "In the sack is something given to us by Heavenly Father." "In the sack is something that gives us instructions." "In the sack is something that can help us know how to return to Heavenly Father." "In this sack are things written by Prophets of God." etc.
Show the primary children the week's theme poster and invite them to repeat, "The Scriptures are the Word of God."
Place the posters of the 4 standard works on the board. Explain to the children that the scriptures are called the Standard Works. Further explain that the scripture are actually 4 books, The Book of Mormon, The Bible, The Doctrine and Covenants and The Pearl of Great Price. Point to the Book of Mormon and invite the primary children to share with you what they know about the Book of Mormon, such as where the it was originally written, who translated it, etc. (It took place in the Americas. Written by prophets such as Nephi, Jacob, Mormon and Moroni. Joseph Smith translated it by the power of God) For more about the Book of Mormon click HERE.
Next point to the Bible, invite the primary children to tell you what they know about the Bible. Such as that there are two parts to the bible. The Old Testament which is before Christ's birth. The Old Testament contains stories of Moses, Joshua and Daniel to name a few. The New Testament is during Christ life and after. Some prophets who wrote in the New Testament are Matthew, Mark, Luke and John. For more about the Bible click HERE.
Next point to Doctrine and Covenants, invite the primary children to share what they know about the Doctrine and Covenants. Explain that it contains revelations given to the Prophet Joseph Smith and some other latter-day prophets from Heavenly Father. For more about the Doctrine and Covenants click HERE.
Lastly, point to the Pearl of Great Price. Invite the primary children to share what they know about this book. Explain that the Pearl of Great Price includes some of Joseph Smith's Translations of the Bible as well as the Articles of Faith, writings of the prophet Abraham and some history of Joseph Smith. For more about the Pearl of Great Price click HERE.
Invite a primary child to come up. Give him a fly swatter. Explain that you are going to say a prophets name and a little story about the prophet and you want<|fim_middle|> and the stories you included for each! I'm set for sharing time tomorrow thanks to you. Thanks again Kim!!! | them to swat onto the picture of which book the story and prophet could be found in. For example, if you said, "Nephi had broken his bow and his family was agree with him. He made a new bow out of wood and went and asked his father where he should go to find food for their family." The primary child would then swat The Book of Mormon picture. If they don't know they can see if one of the other primary children knows. Invite another child to come up and tell of another prophet.
Close by sharing your testimony of the scriptures.
LDS Sharing Time Ideas for September 2015 Week 4: My love for Jesus Christ grows when I study the scriptures.
Thanks! Your posters look great and I love the list of examples from the scriptures!
Thank you for these great ideas! Time to get planning!
You have really great ideas! I miss my primary calling.
Love these ideas, and I'm with Lara, I totally miss primary!
I enjoyed your ideas and may use some of them. However, you have mixed up Isaac and Abraham. Abraham is the father and Isaac the son. Thanks.
Thank you so much for pointing that out!! I try to go back and read through, but sometimes things slip through. Thanks a bunch :) It's fixed now.
I have been stressing all week on what to do. To many thoughts running in my head. This perfect little sharing time is just what I was needing. Thank you!!
Thank you for your wonderful ideas. You always help me to zero in on what direction I want to take my many thoughts floating around my mind!
Thank you for posting this. I was struggling to find the right ideas for sharing time this week. Thanks so much!
Thank you for posting this - this is absolutely perfect for our primary.
Thanks so much for these wonderful ideas!!!
This is exactly what I was looking for! Thank you for the pics of each of the standard works! I really appreciate you letting us download them for free! And thanks for the explanations | 413 |
A TV brand for the independent
In Features On November 5, 2010
Linsar's product offer and distribution strategy is targeted at the independent channel. The founders of the company tell Anna Ryland what they are doing to maintain this market focus.
Linsar, a British television company specialising in small size TV panels, is a relative newcomer to the UK market. The company strives to differentiate itself in the competitive CE market by highly specifying its products and supporting them with excellent service. Another unique feature of Linsar is its clear distribution strategy – geared at the independent channel.
The company was founded by two entrepreneurs and CE enthusiasts, Barry Kick and Terry Reid. They have experience of factory and account management, sales and marketing, aspects of manufacturing and distribution. "We share a good skill set to run this business," says Barry. Their partnership began in 2006 and the company's name came from joining the names of their wives: Lynn and Sarah.
"Linsar's offer sits at the top of the entry-level category but our products are designed to differ from those from supermarkets with a number of features, service and marketing support," says Barry Kick. "Before we set up Linsar we looked at the major players, analysing what they are doing right and what they are doing wrong. We have taken the best bits and incorporated them into our offer," adds Terry Reid.
Linsar's TV panels range from 16 to 32in and they come with a 12-month warranty. In 2010, the company added two PVRs and a set-top box to its portfolio. In early 2010, Linsar moved to its current premises in close proximity of Bournemouth airport which proved very advantageous. They are able to accept orders until 5pm and guarantee a next-day delivery. They're also strengthening the brand by making a greater investment in PR and marketing. The company is also working towards ISO accreditation.
"We are working very hard on differentiating our products," stresses Barry.
Linsar buys its panels from Turkish manufacturer Vestel and customises them adding features such as a picture enhancement engine, HDMI sockets and a custom-made remote control. "We have to make sure that we are putting together the best product we can without stepping outside the remit the brand is able to sit in."
Terry and<|fim_middle|> and 'Big Button' ergonomic remote control. The Plug, Play & Record via USB facility allows the consumer to plug in a USB flash memory stick and record TV programmes, live or from the EPG directly onto the stick.
Terry believes that Linsar has demonstrated that it is a credible partner of the independent: "Over the last four years we proved what we preached – we stuck rigidly to our distribution strategy of targeting only the independent sector.
When we go the independent now – they believe what we say." Finally he adds: "The reason why independent should support Linsar is the margin. Our distribution strategy protects the margins which we offer to independent dealers."
Previous Post Neat dishes
Next Post Selling the sound | Barry argue that Linsar is the only true independent TV brand in the UK market "because we stuck to the promise we made at the beginning. We are in control of the company and we have adopted our product for the British market. Our destiny is not dictated by owners abroad. We are providing incremental business for good retailers whose core business comes from Sony and Panasonic."
Linsar works closely with Big Red Sales which promotes the brand to the independent dealers. "The partnership is very beneficial not only for us but also for our trade partners. If we were to employ our own sales force, the price of our products would be higher," says Terry.
In September 2010, Linsar launched a new range of LED TVs (19, 22 and 24in models) with titanium finish bezels – the Titanium Range. They have a number of useful features such as integral DVD Player, Freeview, electronic programme guides, HDMI and PC inputs. However, the truly unique features of this range are the USB record facility | 212 |
VINELAND, N.J., Nov. 14, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Colonial Financial Services,<|fim_middle|>SOURCE Colonial Financial Services, Inc. | Inc. (NASDAQ Global Market: COBK) (the "Company") the holding company for Colonial Bank, FSB (the "Bank"), announced net income of $981 thousand, or $0.24 per basic and diluted share for the three months ended September 30, 2011, compared to $1.1 million, or $0.28 per basic and diluted share, for the three months ended September 30, 2010. For the nine months ended September 30, 2011, the Company earned $2.4 million, or $0.59 per basic and diluted share compared to $3.3 million, or $0.82 per basic and diluted share, for the nine months ended September 30, 2010.
For the three months ended September 30, 2011, net interest income after provision for loan losses was $4.1 million compared to $4.2 million for the three months ended September 30, 2010. Interest income decreased to $6.2 million for the three months ended September 30, 2011 from $6.5 million for the three months ended September 30, 2010. Interest expense decreased to $1.7 million for the three months ended September 30, 2011 from $2.3 million for the three months ended September 30, 2010. Non-interest income was $481 thousand for the three months ended September 30, 2011 compared to $340 thousand for the three months ended September 30, 2010. Non-interest expense was $3.2 million for the three months ended September 30, 2011 compared to $3.0 million for the three months ended September 30, 2010. For the three months ended September 30, 2011, income tax expense totaled $426 thousand compared to $506 thousand for the three months ended September 30, 2010.
For the nine months ended September 30, 2011, net interest income after provision for loan losses was $11.6 million compared to $12.4 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2010. Interest income decreased to $18.3 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2011 from $20.0 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2010. Interest expense decreased to $5.5 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2011 from $7.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2010. Non-interest income was $1.3 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2011 compared to $1.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2010. Non-interest expense was $9.6 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2011 compared to $8.6 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2010. For the nine months ended September 30, 2011, income tax expense totaled $943 thousand compared to $1.5 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2010.
Total assets at September 30, 2011 remained the same as December 31, 2010 at $590.3 million. Cash and cash equivalents increased to $26.9 million at September 30, 2011 from $20.7 million at December 31, 2010. Investment securities available for sale increased to $205.4 million at September 30, 2011 from $181.6 million at December 31, 2010. Investment securities held to maturity decreased to $26.5 million at September 30, 2011 from $38.2 million at December 31, 2010. Net loans receivable at September 30, 2011 were $302.9 million compared to $320.0 million at December 31, 2010. Deposits increased to $514.4 million at September 30, 2011 compared to $512.8 million at December 31, 2010. Borrowings totaled $2.0 million at September 30, 2011 and $7.0 million at December 31, 2010, respectively. Stockholders' equity increased to $72.2 million at September 30, 2011 from $69.4 million at December 31, 2010. The increase in stockholders' equity was mainly the result of the Company's net income offset by common stock repurchases.
Ed Geletka, President and Chief Executive Officer said, "We are pleased to present our financial results for the third quarter 2011 with continued profitability and increased capital levels. We are pleased with a decline in our loan delinquencies and non-performing loans from 2010 levels. However, with our increased loan collection efforts, we have seen an increase in our legal expense. We are cautious as we close 2011 during this continued economic downturn with high unemployment and depressed real estate values. During the quarter ended September 30, 2011, we announced a 5% stock repurchase program with the intent to enhance shareholder value. Through September 30, 2011, we have repurchased approximately 2% of our stock."
In July 2010, Colonial Financial Services, Inc. completed its stock offering in connection with the conversion of Colonial Bank, FSB from the mutual holding company structure to the fully public holding company structure.
Colonial Financial Services, Inc. is the stock holding company for Colonial Bank, FSB. Colonial Bank, FSB is a federally chartered savings bank which was originally chartered in 1913. Colonial Bank, FSB conducts business from its headquarters and main office in Vineland, New Jersey as well as eight offices located in Cumberland and Gloucester Counties in Southern New Jersey and its operating subsidiary, CB Delaware Investments, Inc.
Statements contained in this news release, which are not historical facts, contain forward-looking statements as that term is defined in the Private Securities Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements are subject to risk and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those currently anticipated due to a number of factors, which include, but are not limited to, factors discussed in documents filed by the Company with the Securities and Exchange Commission from time to time.
(1) Shares outstanding do not include unreleased ESOP shares and repurchased shares either held in treasury or retired for the purpose of the weighted average shares outstanding-basic calculation.
(2) Shares outstanding do not include unreleased ESOP shares and repurchased shares either held in treasury or retired but do include the common share equivalents of stock options and stock awards for the purpose of the weighted average shares outstanding-diluted calculation, if dilutive.
(4) Total stockholders' equity divided by shares outstanding of 4,103,456 at September 30, 2011 and 4,188,456 at December 31, 2010.
(5) Non-performing assets include non-accrual loans and real estate owned.
| 1,664 |
Press Kit & Resources
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Here's What Happened When a 10-Year-Old Wrote a Letter to Alma College
Members of the Alma College Admissions Office went all-out in responding to a letter written by 10-year-old Lexi Smith, who was seeking information about the college<|fim_middle|>-grader at Shepherd Elementary School, following the team's home opening win against Manchester University. | .Students in Lexi Smith's fifth-grade class at Shepherd Elementary School were asked recently to write letters to their favorite colleges. Lexi didn't necessarily expect to get a reply from the school that she wrote, but her mother, Leslie Hohlbein Smith '03, knew she would.
Lexi sent a letter to Alma College. She said that her mother, who is now a teacher at Shepherd Middle School, played on the Scots' softball team. Lexi said when she goes to college, she wants to play softball and basketball.
The Alma College Admissions and Athletics offices answered Lexi's letter in a big way. They sent to her school a gift basket, filled with all kinds of Alma goodies, including a softball signed by members of the softball team and individual cards signed by members of the women's basketball team. There was also an invitation from longtime Alma softball coach Denny Griffin for Lexi to be a bat girl at a home game.
"I honestly didn't think she would take us up on it, but I'm so glad she did," Griffin said. "When you put a smile on a kid's face, everything is worth it, especially when you consider it's such a simple gesture."
Lexi served as a bat girl during the Scots' home opener doubleheader against Manchester University, which were both 10-0 wins. Leslie Smith said the team rallied around Lexi before the game, talking to her and making her feel welcome. When Lexi got home from the game, her mother said, she kept talking about the team, long into the night.
"It was a really wonderful experience. I didn't expect anything less from Alma College — they were great when I went there, and they are great today. I was really happy they were able to do that for her, and I hope we're able to go to more games together as a family," Leslie Smith said.
Time will tell if Lexi, 10, ends up taking the field at Scots Park as a softball player someday. For now, the family has a very happy memory of coming back to Alma College.
Members of the Alma College softball team pose with Lexi Smith, a fifth | 443 |
The first Italian town to greet the river Isonzo as it meanders its way out of Slovenia is Gorizia, historically Europe's most contended border settlement. Flowing south, the river crosses enchanting countryside dotted with tiny villages nestling around their bell towers and vineyards where the<|fim_middle|> We hope that in tasting and offering these wines you will feel the same delight that we feel in producing them. | spirit of the place beats time with the rhythms of daily life .
It is here that, since 1879, four generations of my family have worked passionately to help create and develop one of Friuli's most representative wine estates. 1981 was the turning point in the history of the winery. That was the year we introduced a new approach to production aimed at up-grading quality.
White wines proved to be the best expression of our "terroir" and they became the focus of our mission. Our aim today is to produce wines of increasingly high quality and our role is to create the conditions to let this happen. | 131 |
100 Greatest Photos
NFL Photos | NFL Photography Gallery | NFL.com
Dan Hampton Through the Years
Dan Hampton
Chicago Bears defensive lineman Dan Hampton<|fim_middle|> 18 of the 2021 season
Take a look at the top 10 photos from Week 18 of the 2021 NFL season!
2021 NFL Season: Best of Week 18
Catch a glimpse of all the action right here in the "Best Of" images from Week 18 of the NFL season! | (99) rushes Dallas Cowboys quarterback Danny White (11) during the NFL football game on October 16, 1988 in Chicago, Illinois. The Bears won the game 17-7. (AP Photo/Paul Spinelli)
Paul Spinelli/1988 AP
Dan Hampton, Matt Suhey
Chicago Bears defensive tackle Dan Hampton (99) and running back Matt Suhey (26) go through a series of warm-up exercises before a practice session in Cicero, Illinois on Thursday, Dec. 28, 1985. On Friday Bears officials announced that the team will travel to Suwanee, Ga., next week to practice for their National Football Conference playoff game on Sunday, January 5. (AP Photo/John Swart)
John Swart/AP1985
Mark Carrier, Dan Hampton
Chicago Bears Mark Carrier (20) celebrates with teammate Dan Hampton (99) after NFC wild-card game victory over the New Orleans Saints in Chicago, Sunday, Jan. 7, 1991. The Bears beat the Saints 16-6 to advance in the playoffs, they play the New York Giants next week. (AP Photo/Ralf-Finn Hastoft)
Ralf-Finn Hastoft/1991 AP
John Stallworth, Lynn Swann, Dave Casper, George Allen, Jim Kelley, Dan Hampton
John Stallworth, facing camera, hugs Lynn Swann, class of 2001, Friday, Aug. 2, 2002 as the rest of the Hall of Fame class of 2002, from left, Dave Casper; George Allen, representing his late father, Los Angeles and Washington coach George Allen; Jim Kelly; and Dan Hampton, applauds during the introductions of past enshrinees at the Pro Football Hall of Fame Enshrinees Dinner in Canton, Ohio. (AP Photo/The Repository, Bob Rossiter)
BOB ROSSITER/2002 AP
The Class of 2002 pose with their busts after enshrinement into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio Saturday, Aug. 3, 2002. From left: Dave Casper, Sen. George Allen for his father, the late coach George Allen, John Stallworth, Dan Hampton and Jim Kelly. (AP Photo/Ron Schwane)
RON SCHWANE/2002 AP
Former Chicago Bears great Dan Hampton poses with his bust after his enshrinement into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio, Saturday, Aug. 3, 2002. (AP Photo/Ron Schwane)
Dan Hampton, Wilber Marshall
San Francisco 49ers vs. Chicago Bears at Candlestick Park Sunday, November 13, 1985. Bears beat the 49ers 26-10. Chicago Bears Defensive End Dan Hampton (99) and Bears Linebacker Wilber Marshall (58) celebrate taking ball from the 49ers. (AP Photo/Al Golub)
Al GOLUB/AP1985
Dan Hampton, Tommy Kramer
Chicago Bears tackle Dan Hampton leaps over a downed Minnesota Viking to corner quarterback Tommy Kramer during game in Chicago on Sunday, Oct. 28, 1985. The Bears won, 27-7. It was the eighth straight victory for the undefeated team. (AP Photo/Charles Bennett)
Charles Bennett/AP1985
Dan Hampton, Steve Young
San Francisco 49ers vs Chicago Bears at Candlestick Park Monday, December 14, 1987. 49ers Beat Bears 41-0. Chicago Bears Defensive End Dan Hampton (99) pressures San Francisco 49ers Quarterback Steve Young (8). (AP Photo/Al Golub)
Dan Hampton, Dan Marino
Chicago Bears' Dan Hampton tackles Miami Dolphins quarterback Dan Marino (13) during first quarter action in Chicago, Ill., on Aug. 1988. (Associated Press)
Chicago Bears defensive end Dan Hampton walks off the field at halftime of NFC playoff game, Sunday, Jan. 13, 1991 in Rutherford against the New York Giants. The Giants won 31-3. the four-time All-Pro had announced that this would be the last year of his 12 years career playing for the Bears. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan)
Mark Lennihan/1991 AP
Chicago Bears defensive tackle Dan Hampton reacts on the sidelines in the fourth quarter of NFC playoff game against the New York Giants at Giants Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on Sunday, Jan. 14, 1991. Hampton, a veteran of 12 years and 10 knee operations, played his last professional game on Sunday as the Giants won 31-3. He is a four-time All-Pro. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan)
Steve Mc Michael, Dan Hampton
Chicago Bears Steve Mc Michael, Dan Hampton and the rest of the Bears defense waiting for the next play verse the Cleveland Browns on Sunday September 7, 1986 in Chicago. (AP Photo/Kevin Reece)
Kevin Reece/AP2006
Chicago Bears Hall of Fame defensive end Dan Hampton relaxes on the bench during a 20-17 preseason win over the Los Angeles Raiders at the Los Angeles Coliseum on Sept 5, 1987. (National Football League)
NFL/AP2009
Chicago Bears defensive tackle Dan Hampton (99) fires up his teammates as they leave the field for halftime during the Bears 21-17 loss to the Washington Redskins in the 1987 NFC Divisional Playoff Game on January 10, 1988 at Soldier Field in Chicago, Ill 1987 NFC Divisional Playoff Game - Washington Redskins vs Chicago Bears - January 10, 1988 (National Football League)
Chicago Bears defensive tackle Dan Hampton (99) in action during the Bears 21-17 loss to the Washington Redskins in the 1987 NFC Divisional Playoff Game on January 10, 1988 at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois. 1987 NFC Divisional Playoff Game - Washington Redskins vs Chicago Bears - January 10, 1988 (National Football League)
Randy McMillan, Dan Hampton
Running back Randy McMillan of the Baltimore Colts is tackled by Bears defensive tackle Dan Hampton in a 22 to 19 win over the Chicago Bears on September 25, 1983 at Memorial Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. (National Football League
Dan Hampton, Richard Dent
Chicago Bears Hall of Fame defensive tackle Dan Hampton (99) and defensive end Richard Dent (95) during pre game warmups before a 41-0 loss to the San Francisco 49ers on December 14, 1987, at Candlestick Park in San Francisco, California. (National Football League)
Richard Dent, Dan Hampton
Chicago Bears defensive end Richard Dent (95) and Hall of Fame defensive tackle Dan Hampton (99) pressure the quarterback during a 6-3 Bears victory on December 27, 1987, at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California. (National Football League)
Chicago Bears defensive tackle Dan Hampton (99) during the Bears 24-10 loss to the Los Angeles Raiders on September 30, 1990 at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California. (National Football League)
Chicago Bears defensive tackle Dan Hampton in 1987. (National Football League)
Dan Hampton, Dennis Harrison
NFC defensive tackle Dan Hampton (99) of the Chicago Bears and defensive end Dennis Harrison of the Philadelphia Eagles during the NFC's 20-19 victory over the AFC in the 1983 NFL Pro Bowl played on February 6, 1983 at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, Hawaii. (National Football League)
Chicago Bears defensive tackle Dan Hampton (99) during a game in 1990. (National Football League)
Chicago Bears defensive tackle Dan Hampton (99) in action during the Bears 23-3 loss to the Los Angeles Rams on December 5, 1988 at Anaheim Stadium in Anaheim, California. (National Football League)
Chicago Bears Hall of Fame defensive tackle Dan Hampton in 1984. (National Football League)
Chicago Bears Hall of Fame defensive end Dan Hampton in 1980. (National Football League)
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Q5: Growth in a Global Crisis Despite the significant challenges of the pandemic, Eclipse Communications has managed to increase its client base by 40% and its staff complement by 37%. In addition, revenue growth of between 30%–40% is forecast for the current financial year. Steve Powell, Eclipse CEO and co-founder, tells us how the South […] | and on 10 November, it won the […]
Eclipse Communications launches in-house media training offering
ECLIPSE COMMUNICATIONS LAUNCHES IN-HOUSE MEDIA TRAINING OFFERING Eclipse Communications has expanded its service offering to include professional media training, led by Chief Strategy Officer Shahan Ramkissoon. As an independent and agile, full-service communications agency, making the most of every engagement with the media, is Eclipse Communication's forte. Through its media training programme, clients can benefit […]
ECLIPSE COMMUNICATIONS 2022 Prism Awards
Eclipse Communications honoured with 4 | 125 |
QR codes offer a way to provide living legacies on grave stones
By NB - January 31, 2013
St Margaret's Church, an important Welsh landmark in Bodelwyddan, is using QR code technology to help visitors understand the seemingly confusing presence of 80 Canadian soldiers graves.
The Marble Church as it is known, is using the HiPoints system (historical points), which has been created by historypoints.org, a community-based information project. This system uses smartphone mobile technology and QR (quick response) codes located on placards in the graveyard to provide easily digestible historical snippets about a physical location or building etc.
We had an interesting reference query at the North Auckland Research Centre the other day, about the old age pension (superannuation) in New Zealand. When did it start? Was it ever<|fim_middle|> plates showing parts of the waka, scale plans and diagrams. Also included is a a chart of information about the landing locations of the first waka to arrive in Aotearoa New Zealand, the kaumatua (chiefs) who were on board and the iwi (tribes) claiming descent.
Rare image of Lady Diana Spencer unearthed
A new photograph of Lady Diana Spencer in her late teens has recently emerged. The intimate picture shows Diana lying on a bed with a male friend (there is a bottle of Johnnie Walker whisky on the window ledge), whilst on a skiing holiday in Switzerland and was taken around 1970 or 1980.
Both the identity of the male friend and the photographer are unknown. It is however known that the black and white 8 x 10 image was sold to the Daily Mirror on 26 February 1981, just before Diana's engagement to the Prince Wales was announced by the palace.
Butler's travels around the world
St John's College Library, Cambridge have a project underway scanning the photographs in their collection taken by the Victorian polymath Samuel Butler (1835-1902). The library holds five albums of Butler's photographic prints and about 1600 of his original glass plate negatives. The titles of the photographs are all taken from Butler's own labels.
The library have been vigorously added these photographic gems to their Historypin page. Butler's 'snap-shots' as he referred to them, depict everyday life in the 1880s and 1890s and show both both formal and unposed images. He also photographed tourist destinations which have remained popular including Pompeii, the Eiffel Tower and the Leaning Tower of Pisa
Location: 44 Lorne Street, Boston, MA 02124, USA
NZ history award winners for 2013 funding
The New Zealand History Research Trust Fund, which is administered by Manatū Taonga the Ministry for Culture and Heritage, has announced the award winners for 2013. The work of the winners this year covers a diverse range of topics including military action in the 19th century and the story of everyone's favourite, fish and chips.
The major award this year went to historian Ron Crosby, who will use the money to research and write about the significant and extended Māori support of Crown military during the 19th century.
Local historical socities in the South go online
Thanks to a grant from the Mangere-Otahuhu Local Board, the South Auckland Research Centre has begun working with the Mangere and Otahuhu Historical Societies to provide digital access to their records. As the first stage in this process, both societies now have their own pages on the New Zealand Federation of Historical Societies website.
A selection of photographs from the Otahuhu Historical Society's rich and varied heritage collections can already be seen both on the Auckland Libraries Footprints database and on Digital New Zealand. In the early part of this year, other historical treasures held by both societies will also be reported on the Community Archive and NZ Museums websites. It is hoped this project will serve as a model for other similar initiatives in the future.
Author: Bruce Ringer, South Auckland Research Centre
New addition to the names of those buried in St Stephens Cemetery, Parnell
Here at the Central Auckland Research Centre, every so often I am able to add one or two more names to the records we have of those buried in Symonds Street Cemetery, in Grafton. However, it is very rare to be able to add a new name to those buried in the St Stephens Cemetery, in Parnell.
The last survey, a photographic one of all the remaining headstones, was carried out in May 1995 and so I was most surprised to hear about a 1977 burial.
Baches .. kiwi as ..
Heritage Asset of the Week - Baches are as kiwi as... But did you know that Auckland Council owns some holiday homes, many of which are heritage buildings?
Puhoi Cottage was built in 1926 by the Schischka family as a holiday home, replacing an earlier house known as Christmas Cottage. The Auckland Regional Authority bought the cottage and adjacent land in 1967 but the Schischka family continued to holiday here until 1990.
It is an excellent example of a simplified, bungalow-style bach popular in the 1920s-30s. Recently repaired for use as a publicly bookable bach, Puhoi Cottage has been relatively little altered over time. Located on the north side of Puhoi River, Puhoi Cottage is best viewed from Wenderholm spit. Just one of the many heritage assets owned by Auckland Council on behalf of the community.
Read more about Wenderholm Regional Park in the brochure and remember that you can stay at Puhoi Cottage and many of the other council baches around the region.
Author: Rebecca Harfie…
New book on Samuel Marsden
Andrew Sharp is the new writer in residence for 2013 at the University of Waikato.
Professor Sharp is currently the Emeritus Professor of Political Studies at the University of Auckland although he has lived in the UK since 2006. His work has often centred on the use of law and religion in political argument, especially in 17th century England and 20th century New Zealand.
During the residency, Professor Sharp intends to continue researching and writing about about Samuel Marsden (1765-1838). Yorkshire born, evangelical educated Marsden is described by the Te Ara website as 'chaplain, magistrate, agriculturalist, missionary'. He arrived in New Zealand on Christmas Day 1814 and was the first to set up the first Christian mission over here.
QR codes offer a way to provide living legacies on...
Year of the Snake & Pop up library at the Chinese ...
New addition to the names of those buried in St St... | for 55 year olds? What dates were the changes to it made?
The original 1898 pension ....
It was a fascinating journey finding out the information. Old age pensions in New Zealand were first introduced in 1898 for people 65 and up. The new pension was subject to a means test, and the requirements were pretty stringent. The maximum amount someone could receive was set at 18 pounds per annum, which equates to about $36 in today's currency. This scheme lasted for 40 years, and it shaped the subsequent Social Security Act of 1938.
Indexing 'Sons of the Soil'
Lily Lee and Ruth Lam, the authors of the book 'Sons of the Soil' have done a good job of pulling together what little 'original' documentation there was available about early Chinese market gardeners - such as newspaper articles, account books, photographs.
The families described in the book sometimes set up gardens in different parts of the country and moved around and frequently inter-married. So staff at the Central Auckland Research Centre decided that it would be very useful to index families mentioned in the book and add this information to Auckland Libraries heritage online database: Index Auckland. The goal was to help people track down the families mentioned in the book and set up useful connections.
Index Auckland is a rich resource of history, art, theatre, film and music references sourced from Auckland area newspapers and journal articles. Whilst the index predominantly covers Auckland, other regions are also covered, which means that the index adds to…
The Man and the Memorial
For over 40 years I have passed the WW1 Memorial in the Nell Fisher Reserve (originally known as Civic Park) and been aware of its changing condition. At times it has looked neglected, the drinking fountain broken, its bowl filled with cement and the lighting disconnected and the glass globe shattered or non-existent. Former North Shore mayor Paul Titchener noted in his article in 1982 on the monument that "the passing years have not been kind to it" (Titchener, Paul. Beginnings, vol 6, p.44).
When the new Birkenhead Library was built in 2010, the surrounding park was landscaped and the memorial was expertly restored, creating a revitalised space. Some of this work is described in a Salmond Reed Architects Limited report. Although drinking from the fountain is no longer an option, the globe light has been replaced and it glows through the park trees, highlighted at night, that surround it.
Underneath the Spreading Chestnut Tree
Hurstmere Green in the heart of Takapuna has been re-developed by Sills van Bohemen Architects. On Saturday 8 December 2012, the green was officially re-opened by Mayor Len Brown along with representatives from local businesses and the Local Area Board and an appreciative crowd of locals looking on. The official ceremony in the afternoon began with a karakia, and followed a dawn ceremony earlier the same day.
Oral history workshops
Calling all budding oral historians, the next series of The Essentials of Oral History Research and Abstracting Oral History workshops are due to kick off in March 2013. These workshops are suitable for people considering using oral history in their work, community or personal projects.
Places on these workshops in Wellington, Auckland and Dunedin are limited, so make sure you don't miss out. A workshop may also be held in Nelson if demand is high enough.
Sarah Mathew reads 'Nicholas Nickleby'
During March 1840 Sarah Louise Mathew travelled by ship from Sydney to join her husband Felton Mathew in the Bay of Islands. He was acting Surveyor-General in Governor William Hobson's party of officials and had just witnessed the signing of the Treaty of Waitangi in February.
Sarah (1805?-1890) had emigrated to Australia to marry her first cousin Felton in 1832. Her diary, begun on the voyage to New Zealand on March 2nd 1840, is held in the Sir George Grey Special Collections (NZMS 79). It is one of a number of interesting documents written by both Sarah and Felton in the early years of settlement, which Professor James Rutherford researched in England and negotiated to add to the Library's collection in 1940.
Sarah's journal is full of sharp observation, interesting speculation and some shrewd opinions on the people and places that were so new to her. However, one of her comments in the diary has always intrigued me. This is her entry for March 7th 1840:
"This day being a little be…
Year of the Snake & Pop up library at the Chinese New Year Festival & Market Day
Chinese New Year 2013 is coming up very soon, with this year's celebrations starting on10 February. The new year marks the end of the Year of the Dragon and signifies the start of the Year of the Snake.
The Chinese zodiac consists of twelve animal signs, traditionally starting with the rat and ending with the pig. This zodiac is also used in several East Asian countries such as Korea, Japan and Vietnam.
According to this system, a person's personality traits are shaped by the animal year that they were born in. For example, a person born in the Year of the Monkey is believed to be creative and intelligent yet opportunistic and mischievous. Some people also believe that the animal year also influences a person's romantic compatibility with others.
What you didn't know about Monopoly
Monopoly the board game originally from Leeds in England, may be a fun game that brings back fond childhood memories but it also has a more serious wartime past.
During WW2, a a plot was hatched between the government (including the top secret MI9 department) and John Waddington Ltd, who used to manufactured the boards. Waddingtons., was a printer and board game manufacturer and also happened to be the U.K. licensee for the Parker Bros. game Monopoly. As a result of this collaboration, top secret escape maps were produced by the company for Allied prisoners of war (POWs).
A special code was used by the manufactures to inform MI9 which map was concealed inside a particular game, so that it was sent to the corresponding POW camp in the appropriate area. Hall says: 'A full stop after Marylebone Station, for instance, meant Italy; a stop after Mayfair meant Norway, Sweden and Germany, and one after Free Parking meant Northern France, Germany and its frontiers. "Straight" b…
Tsunami bomb?
Kiwi author and film-maker Ray Waru claims in his latest book 'Secrets and Treasures', that New Zealand and the US carried out secret tests to create a so called "tsunami bomb" during WW2.
During the operation "Project Seal", apparently around 3,700 bombs were exploded off Whangaparaoa Peninsula in Auckland and in New Caledonia. At the time, this destructive device was seen as a possible alternative to the nuclear bomb.
Waka and Augustus Hamilton
The University of Waikato Library has recently added 'The Canoes of the Māori' to its range of digital collections.
'The art workmanship of the Māori race in New Zealand' (1901) by Augustus Hamilton (1853-1913) contains a sizeable section dedicated to Māori waka. This includes lithographic | 1,555 |
Programming is a process through which the Okotoks Public Library meets the informational, cultural, educational, and recreational needs of local residents by providing a wide array of FREE activities designed to meet those requirements. Priority is given to<|fim_middle|> guidelines and fits into our schedule.
Planning and publicity for library programs is done up to 6 months prior to each program cycle.
Please note: We receive many suggestions for programs and are not able to repond to each submission. If we choose to proceed with your program, we will be in touch.
If you would like to rent a space to host your own program, plesae visit our meeting room rentals page located under the Your Library tab on the homepage. | programming that inspires learning, sparks curiosity, and connects people.
If you are interested in presenting a program, please fill out and submit the program proposal below. A library representative will contact you if the program meets our | 42 |
In one of the most often quoted lines by Gustav Mahler, the composer declares that, "to me, 'symphony' means constructing a world with all the technical means at one's disposal." That applies, more or less, to all of his symphonies, but he was speaking about No. 3, the subject of the Baltimore Symphony Orchestra's latest program. .
And what a world he constructed in this astonishing, 100-minute score. Everything of human existence -- profound, banal, sentimental, ironic, scary, reassuring -- seems crammed into this symphony. Something of the divine, too; the finale suggests a steady climb up from the temporal world and right through the gates of the eternal.
Of course, it is possible to hear much less in the Third. Prominent English composer William Walton may have spoken for many when he said of the work, "It's all very well, but you can't call that a symphony."
On Thursday night at Meyerhoff Symphony Hall, BSO music director Marin Alsop made it plain that she believes in every<|fim_middle|> talk of a "wintry mix" scared some folks off), and the performance had a few brief moments of spottiness in articulation or intonation. But the intensity of expression, from conductor and players alike, resulted in a thoroughly persuasive, absorbing account of this ever-astonishing symphony.
The sprawling first movement, Mahler said. "almost ceased to be music; it is hardly anything but sounds of Nature." It opened up on Thursday with a truly majestic, finely blended sound from the massed horns, and Alsop gave their melody plenty of breathing room.
The conductor maintained a great balance of tension and breadth as the movement proceeded, ensuring that the quietest moments spoke as powerfully as the wildest.
Alsop's gentle rubato and the orchestra's wonderful tonal transparency made the Menuet glow. That delicacy continued where it counted in the third movement -- the violins produced a truly gossamer sound. And Andrew Balio sculpted the offstage post horn solo eloquently.
Mezzo-soprano Jamie Barton's sumptuous timbre and nuanced phrasing proved impressive in the fourth movement's "Midnight Song." She and the combined Peabody Children's Chorus and women of the Baltimore Choral Arts Society produced a beguiling effect in the symphony's penultimate section.
The long, spacious finale found Alsop in remarkable form, taking her time so that the hymn-like themes registered deeply, and maintaining a telling pulse even when the music was at its most still.
The strings responded with particularly radiant playing; the brass and winds offered great subtlety (Emily Skala's flute solo floated exquisitely) until, with the timpani providing thunderous punctuation, the whole orchestra relished the rapturous coda. | note of the piece, and it sounded as if the orchestra could not have agreed more.
The turnout wasn't great (maybe all the | 27 |
One method calls for the division of a stock portfolio into domestic and foreign, and then into different styles: large cap, small cap, mid cap, value, and growth.
The other method calls for allocating percentages of a portfolio to various industry sectors: healthcare, utilities, energy, financials, and so on.
Most savvy investors have some equity in each box of the style box or grid (aka the Morningstar grid). A number of ETFs are available to match each style.
The reason for the style box is simple enough: History shows that companies of differing cap (capitalization) size (in other words, large companies and small companies), and value and growth companies, tend to rise and fall under different economic conditions.
Morningstar<|fim_middle|> at significantly different paces; this is true of various styles and sectors. And it is certainly true for various geographic regions.
As measured by their respective Dow Jones indexes, we can track how well various industry sectors fared in recent years. Yes, there are ETFs that track each of these industry sectors — and many more. | has tracked how well various investment styleshave fared in the past several years. Note that a number of ETFs are available to match each style.
The advent of ETFs has largely brought forth the use of sector investing as an alternative to the grid. Examining the two models toe-to-toe yields some interesting comparisons — and much food for thought.
One study on industry-sector investing, by Chicago-based Ibbotson Associates, came to the very favorable conclusion that sector investing is a potentially superior diversifier to grid investing because times have changed since the 1960s when style investing first became popular.
"Globalization has led to a rise in correlation between domestic and international stocks; large, mid, and small cap stocks have high correlation to each other. A company's performance is tied more to its industry than to the country where it's based, or the size of its market cap," concluded Ibbotson.
The jury is still out, but you can do a little comparison of your own by comparing the data on style performance to the data on industry performance included in this article. Note that by using either method of diversification, some of your investments should smell like roses in years when others stink.
Also, recall that all stocks crashed in 2008 but recovered | 262 |
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PCMag Asia
First Look at the 2020 Asus VivoBook S Resolute Red and Gaia Green?
First Look at the 2020 Asus VivoBook S
Asus adds some software perks to its handsome mainstream laptops, in addition to 10th Generation Intel processors, Wi-Fi 6, and more. We go hands on at CES.
LAS VEGAS—Asus has revamped its midrange VivoBook line, although not by much. The focus this year is on small refinements and a splash of color, while keeping the features from other popular Asus products, such as the optional numberpad-trackpad hybrid.
On the inside, these laptops have 10th Generation Intel processors, support for Nvidia graphics, and built-in Wi-Fi 6. They will benefit from some updates Asus has provided to make file transfer easier and to get more out of your cell phone while using your laptop.
Resolute Red and Gaia Green?
Asus has two new color options for the 2020 range alongside the expected black and white versions: Resolute Red and Gaia Green. The range comes in 13-, 14-, and 15-inch sizes, and if you go for the two larger sizes, you get a choice of black, gold, or silver finishes, too.
As it has the most screen space, the VivoBook S15 is intended for people who need to multitask. The S13, meanwhile, is the more lightweight choice for travelers, while the S14 is for those who need a middle ground between the two.
A Bit of Flair
Asus also added a color border around its Enter key, in a bid to better appeal to younger generations. Millennials think of the Enter key as their connection to the internet, the company says, as it's the way you send messages or access websites. So all laptops in the VivoBook range now have a yellow-color blocked key that "adds a bit of flair."
Light and Slim
The body of the VivoBook S series is all metal, but that lightweight housing means the laptops never top 5 pounds. The largest—the S15—comes in at 4 pounds, while the S13 is only 2.6 pounds. They're all slim too, ranging from 15mm to 18mm thick, so they should easily slip into any bag.
Numberpad and Touchpad
The S13 and S14 laptops also feature the optional numberpad-come-touchpad that we've seen on other Asus devices, such as the Asus ZenBook Pro Duo, which makes it easier and quicker to do data entry.
Pick Your Ports
Around the sides are all the ports you would expect on a portable but powerful, device: a HDMI slot, USB Type-A, USB Type-C, and a headphone and microphone 3.5mm jack on one side, while on the other are two more USB Type-A ports and a MicroSD slot to transfer files from a camera.
Inside the laptops are Intel's 10th generation Core i5 and i7 CPUs, 16GB of RAM, either 256GB or 512GB SSDs, as well as support for Nvidia's GeForce MX250 graphic cards for a boost when it comes to gaming. The VivoBook S range will be available in the first or second quarter of 2020, but pricing is yet to be announced.
Software Upgrade, Too
Asus also gave the software side a boost. Similar to Microsoft's Your Phone function on Windows 10 devices, the MyAsus software now allows you to make or receive calls, get notifications, and open mobile apps on-screen with one click.
Your mobile device can be used as a second screen as well, in case you need more space, provided your device is running Android 9.0 or later, and has the MyAsus app installed. There's also a new QR code function, which lets you create a scannable code to share photos with others easier. Those features will be coming January 19, 2020.
CES 2020 Photo Gallery
PCMag's staff is on the floor of the Las Vegas Convention Center to highlight the best new tech, and most interesting visuals from the 2020 edition of CES.
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Adam Smith adam_smith@pcmag.com
Adam Smith is the Contributing Editor for PCMag UK, and has written about technology for a number of publications including What Hi-Fi?, Stuff, WhatCulture, and MacFormat, reviewing smartphones, speakers, projectors, and all manner of weird tech. Always online, occasionally cromulent, you can follow him on Twitter @adamndsmith. See Full Bio
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The Freshwater Trust has been placed on the shortlist in Imagine H20's 2015 California Water Policy Challenge.
The organization's competition was designed to source policy ideas that will accelerate the deployment of water technologies to improve water resource management in the Golden State. The competition accepted 140 submissions.
The Sustainable Groundwater<|fim_middle|> (GSA) that oversee the implementation of a local Groundwater Sustainability Plan. Local stakeholders have until 2017 to organize themselves into these agencies and until 2040 to achieve groundwater sustainability.
The act however currently does not mandate that the agencies consider flood management, and the flood control agencies lack incentives to favor supply-harnessing projects. For the competition, The Freshwater Trust proposed supporting existing legislation that would make recharge a beneficial use, and the adoption of SGMA regulations that would require agencies to include in their groundwater sustainability plans an assessment of opportunities for voluntary recharge crediting programs that address groundwater and flooding.
Under the envisioned approach, flood and groundwater agencies would cooperate to fund projects that divert floodwaters for field application and eventual recharge into the aquifer. The recharge would be quantified so that the GSA could reward qualified landowners for their participation with credits to offset their future extractions. Similarly, the GSA could reward flood control agencies for their role in developing credits that it can sell to fund its operations. The GSAs' income from extraction fees would exceed these payments, thereby making the credit expenses a viable method to meet sustainability goals.
Imagine H20 recently cited a UC Davis study finding that California's drought has resulted in an estimated $2.7 billion in lost revenue and 18,600 lost jobs. According to the organization, policy that enables the deployment of water technology would not only address the state's water challenge, but also create new economic opportunities, now and in the future.
Winners of the competition will be determined by an independent panel of California water leaders. Finalists will participate in a showcase event in Sacramento in early 2016 after receiving mentorship from leading water policy experts. The winning entry will also receive up to $25,000 in support.
Interested in helping The Freshwater Trust continue to innovate and come up with new ways to fix our freshwater resources? | Management Act was enacted in 2014 to provide a framework for the sustainable management of groundwater supplies by local authorities. Under this legislation, local and regional authorities will form Groundwater Sustainability Agencies | 39 |
TREK AMERICA
TOP 15 PLACES TO VISIT: USA
Now that i've visited a significant portion of the U.S.A. here are my top 15 places to visit:
Yosemite National Park, California
Yosemite National Park has to be my top place to visit. It has incredible sweeping granite scenery, incredible hikes, and small hidden lakes.
If you get the chance to visit here you should take a trip to Glacier Point to take in the sunset, the most incredible natural scenery I've ever seen! There's views of half dome, Vernal Falls and many other incredible sights. It's so beautiful, some of the sights don't even look real! You feel on top of the world, literally!
Two days wasn't enough for me to see all the wonders that are here, I would suggest you could easily spend a week taking in this stunning scenery.
Bryce Canyon National Park, Utah
The orange rocks of Bryce Canyon NP are stunning. Get up early and watch the sunrise light up the red rock landscape and once you walk amongst the hoodoo's you'll notice every shape there is. Its beautiful in the sun with the tops of the rocks being lit and shining bright in the landscape.
There are steep climbs here, so give yourself enough time to make the most of it.
Zion National Park, Utah
Zion NP is a mixture of red rock scenery and lush greenery, the contract is very impressive. Climb<|fim_middle|> has it all, mixing cities and scenery gives you the best of both worlds, take it all in!
I wanted this to be a top 10 but I really couldn't leave out any places on this list. Of course, this top 15 is only made up of places I have visited and there are big portions of the US I've not had the chance to visit yet. I'm sure this list will grow!
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© CAROLAND | up to Scouts or Angels Landing and get an amazing panoramic view. While climbing you'll feel encased by the striped orange rock.
After a long hike chill out on the ground in the rivers and streams.
To really see the vast sweeping scenery, drive the roads that curve round the edges of the cliffs and you will spot lots of incredible wildlife on the way.
Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona
The best way to see this place is by helicopter. Leaving the green forests below you feel like you're floating over a beautiful bumpy landscape that stretches for miles. It really is a grand canyon!
Watch the Colorado river snake between the the rocks in the valleys of the canyon.
There are some incredible hikes, and you will need a lot of time to see this place. Ooh Ahh point and walking the south rim are particular highlights.
End your time here perfectly by watching the sun set over the peaks and troughs of the canyon where you can see all its colours in shining glory.
There is so much to this city! There's something for everyone here, you've got incredible beaches, the hollywood hills, shopping districts, art districts, fishing ports, and theme parks galore. Even, wall to wall sunshine and the desert in the distance, whats not to love!
Big Sur, California
This hidden gem is one among many that stretches along the Pacific Coast Highway (PCH). I could easily list all of them, but Big Sur has to be the most spectacular. You can see the Pacific Ocean go for miles into the distance, and the small but perfectly formed beach makes it feel like you are in paradise.
It has a quiet and chilled atmosphere, with a calming effect. If you need to get away from it all in the western US, this is the place. With the clifton walkways you you will get some of the most amazing coastal views anywhere!
NYC, New York
The city that never sleeps has a lot to take in. Theres always something to see and do, so you've gotta keep up the pace. Key places to visit are, the Statue of Liberty, Empire State Building, Top of the Rock, World Trade Center & 9 /11 memorial, Brooklyn Bridge, Times Square, Broadway.
And don't forget all the incredible galleries and museums, Guggenheim, American Museum of Natural History, the Met.
You won't want to stop from the moment you arrive to the moment you leave.
Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming / Montana / Idaho
It really is a national park filled with yellow stone, quite incredible. There is so much natural beauty to see here, hot springs, geysers, bears, buffalo.
The colours of the water running over the hot rocks create is best views in the sun, so the spectacular scenery is somewhat weather dependent.
Even on a misty morning there are some hikes that make you happy you got up early.
The city of sin in the middle of the desert! The hotels here are incredible, you would never need to ever step foot outside but you'll be impressed when you do. This is the perfect place to explore the surrounding desert areas from and get wild and over indulge in modern life. The shows here are glittering and the start to long nights. This city does not wake up early so chill out in the luxurious polls in the numerous hotels. Theres even rivers and blue skies inside, so you never really know what time of day it is.
See the view from the top of the Stratosphere, you get an incredible perspective of the strip contrasting with the mountains in the distance. Brave the rides that dangle you over the edge if you dare.
Badlands State Park, South Dakota
Badlands State Park has scenery like no other. It feels like you are on another planet, or maybe the moon! The ground is very rocky, but it crumbles beneath your feet, and you can't see anything but the impressive rock formations for miles. It feels like you've wandered into another world.
This very still scenery is best seen at sunrise and lights up in many different colours, grey, dusty pinks and neutrals, as well as bright oranges and pinks. Watch the world come to life here and you will not regret it.
Niagara Falls, New York
The most powerful waterfall in America is a sight to see. Take a boat tour to feel the force, get sprayed by the mist and see it up close, but the view from above is just as impressive.
The falls stretch across the border of the US and Canada, walk over the Rainbow Bridge to get a view from the Canadian side.
More chilled than NYC, Chicago has the metropolis feel but not as fast a pace. Take in Lincoln Park Zoo, cloud gate with the reflective bean and a baseball game to make the most of the city.
It will feel recognisable from many film scenes, but to take in the city from all angles make a visit to the Willis Tower. Even stand on the the Skywalk where you feel like you're floating above the buildings below.
This chilled beachside community is another perfect California getaway. See some incredible Spanish style buildings and the slow pace here will help you relax on the perfectly yellow sandy beach.
Take a walk over the Pacific Ocean onto the pier, and take in the amazing ocean views with an outside bite to eat in the seaside restaurants.
With the mountains in the distance you feel enclosed in the perfect picturesque cali beach life.
This is proper cowboy country and definitely worth a visit. The small town nestled between mountain ranges gives you the experience of traditional american country life. With the Teton's in the distance the town square is full of life and still has line dancing on the street on holidays. Check out the amazing textiles and cowboy boots in the local shops and take in a rodeo to see bull riding and showmanship on horses.
With tradition there is of course modern life too, so take in the scenery while staring out the window of the coffee shops for a few hours, its easy for this place to feel like home, even if you've never lived life like this before.
Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming
The mountains and lakes in this National Park are stunning. The greenery makes this a very lush area, with hidden waterfalls and fairly easy trails the hikes are fun and not too long. Climb up, and take in the views of the huge Jenny Lake, before taking the boat back to your start point.
This is another area that feels very still, with just the waterfalls breaking the silence. A perfect place to chill.
America most definitely | 1,330 |
Seven countries, One Direction, One Goal.
Republic of Djibouti
Djibouti is a small country strategically located on the northeast coast of the Horn of Africa, occupying an area of 23,200 sq km. It shares borders with Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia. Its coastline spans over 300 km along the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Despite the country's limited natural resources, its land is rich in mineral deposits<|fim_middle|>117,000 square kilometers and its capital city is Asmara situated on the edge of the Eritrean highland in the northeastern part. Eritrea has an estimate population of 6 million. Its natural resources include gold, copper, zinc, and natural gas. Its main agricultural products are corn, cotton, tobacco, coffee, and vegetables. Major industries include food and beverage processing, clothing, and textile manufacturing.
Republic of Somalia
Somalia is bordered by Ethiopia to the west, the Gulf of Aden to the north, the Guardafui Channel and Somali Sea to the east, and Kenya to the southeast. It has the longest coastline on Africa's mainland and has a total area of 637,657 sq km. Its capital is Mogadishu. Population estimate is at 11,757,124 (July 2020). Somalia's natural resources include uranium, iron ore, tin, copper, bauxite, natural gas, and untapped oil reserves. Agricultural land comprises 70.3 percent of its territory.
Republic of the Sudan
Sudan is a country in Northeast Africa. It is bordered by Egypt to the north, Libya to the northwest, Chad to the west, the Central African Republic to the southwest, South Sudan to the south, Ethiopia to the southeast, Eritrea to the east, and the Red Sea to the northeast. Its capital is Khartoum and population is estimated to be 43.85 million as per 2020 estimates. Primary resources are agricultural, including cotton, peanuts, gum arabic, and sesame seeds.
Republic South Sudan
South Sudan, officially known as the Republic of South Sudan, is a landlocked country in Central Africa. It is bordered by Ethiopia, Sudan, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda and Kenya. Its population was estimated as 12,778,250 in 2019. Juba is the capital and largest city.
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Subscribe to our newsletter and get relevant information straight to your email. | such as gold, granite, limestone, and marble. Logistics, port, and associated services are its major economic enterprise. Djibouti has an estimated population of 921,800 as in July 2020.
Federal Democratic Republic Of Ethiopia
Ethiopia is a landlocked country in the Horn of Africa. It shares borders with Eritrea to the north, Djibouti to the northeast, Somalia to the east, Kenya to the south, South Sudan to the west, and Sudan to the northwest. It has a total area of 1,104,300 sq km and an estimated population of 108.4 million (July 2018). The country's capital is Addis Ababa. The country's key economic sectors such as telecommunications, banking, and power distribution are state-owned. It has a limited reserve of mineral deposits such as gold, platinum, copper, and natural gas.
Kenya is the third-largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa after Nigeria and South Africa. It is a country in the Horn of Africa bordering the Indian Ocean between Somalia and Tanzania with a total area of 580,367 sq km. The country is considered the economic and financial hub of East Africa. It has a population of 48.4 million as of July 2018. Kenya's natural resources are limestone, soda ash, salt, gemstones, zinc, and other small mineral deposits. The country's abundant highland regions are suitable for diverse agriculture and wildlife sustainability.
State of Eritrea
Its coastline faces the Red Sea and is shared by Saudi Arabia and Yemen. It has a total area of | 349 |
A noble father speaks to his family from a place of gratefulness and self-respect.
He never resorts to condescension or sarcasm. Steve models the Heavenly Father's voice, always talking up to Adrienne and Addison (and me) like they're valuable and capable of more. This is a powerful factor in winning our kids' hearts. Plus, I believe our earliest relationship with God<|fim_middle|> courage and steadfastness. To those of you who may read this and wince, it's never too late to be the person you needed when you were young. Pick one area, one action, and start there. Lastly, to all the grown up daughters and sons who read this and feel an aching void, I know this from personal experience: You are never too old to be adopted by your Heavenly Father, who celebrates you and calls you his treasure. | tends to model our first ideas of a father. Just listening to Steve has helped me heal.
A consummate father makes a weighty investment in his daughter.
Steve joyfully plans father-daughter nights and unabashedly tells Adrienne she is beautiful. He dotes on her like a worthy woman, an extension of the way he treats me. There is no cajoling necessary on my part. His wholehearted role is paving the way for her future, and the family she will choose to add to ours.
A worthwhile father is hands-on; he teaches his children the skills he has developed.
Steve is a jack of all trades and a master of many. He can install a transmission, remodel a kitchen, write software, wire a sound system, take professional portraits, play instruments… He brought home boxes of rusty metal from a farmer's barn and assembled a cherry red '76 Honda motorcycle that makes old men drool. He's a quick study and patient instructor. He imparts his can-do confidence to all three of us.
An indispensable father steps up to the plate to protect and provide.
He works hard, dreams big and aims to keep his promises. Steve never treats our family like my job v. his job. He simply does what is necessary, modeling authentic manhood for our son. Sometimes my past sneaks back up on me and I feel overwhelmed, as though I were still a kid struggling to fix my own problems with cobbled-together solutions. Steve reminds me that I am definitely not alone, that we have many resources together, and nothing is so scary as it seems. In his embrace, I can catch my breath again. A capable father imparts that same safety and surety to his family.
An legendary father is present.
Steve's favorite thing is to spend time with us. In fact, when Adrienne was born, he finagled paternity leave to match mine and rolled it into working from home part time. Half the reason he became an entrepreneur was to be the master of his own schedule, with us as top priority. He is one fun dad! He turns on music and starts a dance party. He's the absolute king of corny dad jokes. (He cheats at Monopoly though, and Settlers of Catan, and – well, don't play board games with him.) Steve loves to take us on adventures. So far, we have visited 27 states and Mexico together. He makes us hold our breath when we cross bridges or state lines. My childhood was pretty bleak, but Steve has shown me how much joy and laughter can be packed into a day.
Here is to all you authentic fathers, showing up to give your best in your families every day. We salute your | 557 |
Vadose Zone Journal (20<|fim_middle|>rolling soil properties. Analyzing treatment effects based on the mean and variance of randomly taken field observations can become obsolete if there is a huge inherent variance in the set of measurements. Therefore, in a new experimental design, presented earlier and with treatments being arranged in a scale-dependent manner, Bromide (Br−) leaching was analyzed under two contrasting land uses (cropland vs. grassland) and affected by different irrigation characteristics. Given the cyclic arrangement of treatments and pedologic properties such as texture and bulk density, the Br− leaching process and changes in the soil water status during the experiment were described by autoregressive state-space models. The results showed that changes in soil water status could be described by state equations comprising the irrigation amount and to a smaller extent the land use. The spatial process of Br− leaching was described by autoregressive state-space models incorporating land use, irrigation amount, and changes in the soil water status during the experiment, as well as clay content and bulk density as means of the analyzed profiles. The results of this study demonstrated the efficiency of state-space models for describing field solute transport based on experimental treatments and underlying pedological properties. This way of analysis improved our knowledge about the relative influence of these factors on field-scale solute leaching.
N38°06'00" - N38°06'00", W84°28'60" - W84°28'60" | 13) 12 (4): vzj2012.0196.
Understanding leaching mechanisms of surface-applied solutes and pesticides is of paramount interest. One problem inherent in leaching experiments at the field scale is the considerably large spatial variability of flow-cont | 58 |
I<|fim_middle|> your technique so not only will you avoid injury but you'll achieve better results. Marya listens to you, helps you set goals & keeps you motivated. In all just a neat person to work with. | was very fortunate to have Marya recommended to me. I have a number of health issues – arthritis and hip replacements and found it difficult to keep fit. Marya worked with my limitations and she found the best exercise regime for me. I really enjoy her 'don't give up' attitude and personal attention, even in a group. She remembers what I need to work on and is constantly making small adjustments to ensure I'm getting the best out of the exercise and continually improving. Plus she has a great personality!! I can't recommend her highly enough.
When I first approached Marya, we wanted a stretching and strength class for a group of friends. She started up a gravity circuit class for us, that was about 18 months ago and we're still going strong. Her classes are well organised and cover all muscle groups and she carefully monitors us all to ensure we are doing the exercise in a way that will lead to maximum benefit.
I was looking for a pilates/yoga type class to help with strengthen up and recover from running injuries. As I spend a lot of time swimming, cycling and running I tighten up in the back and hips. Pilates has improved my balance and my flexibility has returned. Marya's classes are always enjoyable and I always feel like I've achieved what I set out to do whether it be a good stretch or a strength session with weights. The smaller class numbers means Marya has more time to focus on individual needs - whether it is looking after a sore back or reminding people to activate their abdominals.
Everyone should invest in a few sessions with Marya. She will perfect | 325 |
Sausage Wild Rice Soup | Tasty Kitchen: A Happy Recipe Community!
A perfect mostly-broth-based sausage soup. Quick to throw together and smells great while simmering. Use spicy sausage for an extra kick!
Preheat a large soup pot to medium-high with a drizzle of olive oil. Add sausage and cook until crumbly and brown, breaking it up with a spoon as you go.
Add carrot, celery, onion, and garlic to the sausage. Stir to combine and cook veggies for about 5<|fim_middle|> few pinches of salt as needed.
When rice is tender, whisk cream with cornstarch to create a slurry. Pour mixture into the soup and increase heat to medium-high. Let soup bubble uncovered for a few minutes to thicken slightly.
Serve with something green on top, if you'd like. Enjoy! | minutes. Add oregano, rosemary, salt, wild rice, stock, and water to the pot. Stir everything together and cover. Reduce heat to low and let soup simmer for about 1 hour, checking it every 20 minutes, until rice is cooked through and tender. Each time you stir the soup, taste the broth and add a | 72 |
What's a Fintech?
This entry<|fim_middle|> a financial-services provider near you.
From Disruption, Value
Blockchain and machine learning can generate traditional value as well as 'new new' value.
Disruption: Beyond Technology
At stake: your day, your organization, your talent pool, your go-to market, your client relationships. | is part 2 in the series Peeling Back FinServ Labels: What's the Bottom Line? (7/16-10/16)
Fintech is a broad, catch-all term, which can apply to a broad swath of financial-services operations.
But paradoxically, fintech is often viewed with a too-limited scope, as people commonly understand — or misunderstand — the word to refer to millennial-led startup firms that disrupt payments and wealth-management processes via digitization.
Fintech has emerged as one of the hottest buzzwords on Wall Street in recent years, after historically being the stuff of dry, technical discussions among IT professionals.
When Vincenzo La Ruffa started in the private equity business 12 years ago, the word fintech never came up at cocktail parties. "Now when it comes up, it comes up too narrowly," said La Ruffa, who's head of financial technology at Aquiline Capital Partners. "It comes up because today people think about robo-advisers, or alternative lenders or other consumer-facing things. I don't think things are being labeled fintech that aren't fintech. I just think that certain end markets get much more consumer attention than others."
As a buzzword, "people talk about fintech as if it were something brand new. Very cool. Different. Specific," said Leda Glyptis, director at consultancy Sapient. "But if we go back to basics, there is no financial services institution, no matter how you define what they do for a living, that isn't in the business of fintech."
Fintech is shorthand for financial technology, but Glyptis said it's critical to recognize the practical definition, which is innovation in financial technology. From there, financial services practitioners' focus can turn to the three aspects of innovation, which are innovation in the technology itself; product innovation; and business-model innovation.
La Ruffa noted that the innovation landscape is mixed, with penetration by small companies much stronger in certain end markets than others. "The payments market, for example, has had tremendous activity by small companies that became large by providing innovative solutions," he said. "The insurance market is in much earlier innings."
The multiple innovation channels, plus the fact that small firms don't have a monopoly on innovation, underscore the shortcomings of pigeonholing fintech as the work of upstarts with stickered laptops, who do their disruption from shared workspaces.
"It is a misleading thought process," Glyptis said. "There is innovation that is coming from large firms too. So technology-powered innovation cannot solely mean startups, but it also can't be a byword for new technology either. That is because a lot of the startups that are doing very clever things in the FS space and are creating sticky revenue, are not using emergent technology to do that. They are using tried and tested technology, but are innovating through the business model or user experience."
The nuances of fintech aren't just an academic discussion — confusion around the term has implications for the bottom line.
"What you get is conversations with banks that can't settle on anything, because they meander between talking about startups, emergent technology, or both," Glyptis said. "A large percentage of decision makers speak of fintech and startups interchangeably."
"They then consign it to the space of R&D and observation, or potential portfolio-diversifying investments," Glyptis continued. Those pursuits are worthwhile, but "it misses the fact that most of the conversation actually needs to be about the game changers for the business-model innovation — the monetization of those relationships."
Investment Funds are Disruption Targets
Calastone survey shows half of millennials would invest with 'big tech' firms such as Google and Apple.
Disaster Recovery Planning Essential for Trading Firms (by Roy Castleman, Prosyn)
Banks and investment firms are becoming more sophisticated in Disaster Recovery strategies in an effort to protect their assets and prevent the proliferation of fallout that could occur from any type of crisis
05.31.2016 By John D'Antona , Editor, Traders Magazine
The Future of Disruption
Seamless, 'non-participatory' experiences will soon be coming from | 869 |
Hitting the Books: Smaller cameras and projectors helped the Allies win WWII
Apple is once again extending TV+ free trials
ASUS' ZenBeam Latte is a coffee cup-sized<|fim_middle|> watch it in 4K right here.
In this article: av, game awards, gameawards, games, gaming, geoff keighley, geoffkeighley, live stream, livestream, stream, the game awards, thegameawards, thegameawards2019, video games, videogames | portable projector
Watch The Game Awards live at 8:30PM ET
Expect 15 or so game reveals, along with updates on 'Ghost of Tsushima' and more.
Kris Holt, @krisholt
It's almost time to find out who'll walk away with the game of the year trophy at The Game Awards. Death Stranding, Control, The Outer Worlds, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate, Resident Evil 2 and Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice are vying for the top prize. Hideo Kojima's Death Stranding has the most nominations overall with nine, one more than Control.
As has been the case over the last five years of Geoff Keighley's award show, you can expect plenty of game reveals -- around 15 of them, including a League of Legends title. Along with those surprises, there'll be updates on Fortnite, Half-Life: Alyx, Ghost of Tsushima, Ori and the Will of Wisps and Gears Tactics. The ceremony will also include performances from Grimes, CHVRCHES and Green Day. (Update: According to Valve, Half-Life: Alyx will not be shown at the awards.)
The Game Awards will air live on dozens of platforms and even in movie theaters starting at 8:30PM ET. You can also | 270 |
<|fim_middle|> continues to venture into commissioning comedy. Kathleen Madigan's special, Madigan Again, premières September 11 on Netflix. She'll be at the Majestic to promote on October 25. | Are you ready to laugh? Here are the top opportunities around North Texas this fall 2013.
Oh the humanity! Lewis Black's show at Bass Performance Hall will be his first appearance back in Texas after the spectacular rant on Gov. Rick Perry that he did for The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. This will be a tremendously acerbic set that will leave you gasping for air. He has a fanatic fan base in Fort Worth, so ticket up early for this Sept. 29 show.
Pugnacious political comedian Bill Maher comes to the AT&T Performing Arts Center's Winspear Opera House on Nov. 17, less than a week before the 50th anniversary of the JFK assassination. If Dallas city officials thought they could keep discussion of the JFK shooting all tamped down and free of references to the cultural climate that fostered it, Maher will fix that. Expect headline-generating comedy.
Cristela Alonzo made her way from the South Texas border town of San Juan to Dallas, where she shot like a rocket up the Backdoor Comedy Club ranks. She wisely developed a strong circuit with hundreds of colleges, which further fueled her rise. Within a short time she was performing at Bonnaroo and Just For Laughs in Montreal, co-starring on FX's Sons of Anarchy and headlining her own Half Hour special for Comedy Central.
Now Alonzo has launched into the network sitcom stratosphere with a pilot purchase by ABC. Cristela is a potential series starring Alonzo, and co-created with writer-producer Kevin Hench, that explores a young woman who straddles Latino and white cultures—much like Alonzo's life.
In the interim, Alonzo continues to tour lightly, a mix of Improvs and other comedy clubs, college gigs, and the annual Reyes of Comedy show for the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute in Washington, D.C. Her travels bought her her to the Arlington Improv from September 19 to 22. Here's my review.
A strong line up of funny folks is at Bass Performance Hall in Fort Worth.
Sept. 24: Bill Cosby never does a bad show. He sits on a chair, speaks intimately and honestly, and fills nearly two hours with funny stuff. Less grouchy than you might think.
Nov 9: The latest David Sedaris collection of essays, Let's Explore Diabetes with Owls, debuted at #1 on the New York Times bestseller list. So what if he just stands there and reads from his work. It's just so damn funny. And once you hear him live, that voice will always be in your head when you read him later on. It's a good kind of crazy.
RadioLab goes Apocalyptical at the Verizon Theatre at Grand Prairie on Nov. 4. Superbly edited and arranged brain candy with a techno and science bent. RadioLab blends a little storytelling, some interviews, challenging music, and the witty repartee of hosts Jad Abumrad and Robert Krulwich.
This incarnation of the RadioLab road show explore the inevitability of the end and the clever luck that has enabled mankind to outwit it—over and over again. Guests include British comedian Simon Amstell and improvisational soundscapes from On Fillmore and Noveller.
Young—and not so young—comedy turks pull into the Majestic Theater in Dallas in early October.
It's been seven years since Retaliation by Dane Cook went double platinum. Internet- driven success relayed into cable television fortune and then some plum film roles. Those were obnoxious days. More recently there have been stumbles: a Neil LaBute play bound for Broadway was cancelled and his role along with it, and NBC sited creative differences and dropped his sitcom Next Caller even though episodes had been taped. See a somewhat more humble Dane Cook in his Under Oath tour on Oct. 5.
Saturday Night Live Reunion Tour with Dennis Miller, Dana Carvey and Kevin Nealon pulls into the Allen Events Center on Oct. 19. Three sets of very different styles—Miller's sharp politicism, Carvey's characters and Nealon's casual observations—followed by an audience Q&A.
It's been 20 years since Mo'Nique launched into the big time with The Queens of Comedy tour. Now she's an Academy Award winning film actress (Precious), sitcom star (The Parkers), talk-show host (The Mo'Nique Show), book author (Skinny Cooks Can't Be Trusted), and shero to voluptuous women everywhere. The brassy comedian appears in a short special engagement at the Addison Improv on Nov 1 and 2.
Netflix | 965 |
Home>Experience in>Attractions>Lakeside Park Carousel
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Ontario Lacrosse Hall of Fame
St. Catharines Museum & Welland Canals Centre
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St. Catharines Museum and Welland Canals Centre
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Citizens First
City Hall, 2nd Floor
St. Catharines, ON
TTY: 905.688.4TTY (4889)
Create a map to City Hall
Email Citizens First
Please Note: As the City works to slow the spread of COVID-19 there are restrictions on the use of outdoor spaces. At this time, the Lakeside Park Carousel is closed until further notice. Please visit our COVID-19 page for more information.
The Memory Go-Around - share your favourite memories of the Carousel on our social media accounts using #OurHomeSTC. See a list of our accounts here.
1 Lakeport Road
L2N 5B3
The smiles and laughter which the Lakeside Park Carousel inspire are a century-old tradition! For 5 cents a ride, you can experience the carousel's magic and its wonderful ability to bring out the child in all of us. The carousel is a timeless tradition connecting our past, present and future generations.
The Lakeside Carousel is a Charles I.D. Looff original, carved between 1898 and 1905 in Brooklyn, New York. The beautifully restored animals were carved by Looff's factory workers, including Marcus Charles Illions, who later went on to become a famed carousel-maker in his own right. Relocated in 1921, the carousel came to St. Catharines from its earlier home at an amusement park in Scarborough, now part of the City of Toronto. It was purchased for the amusement park flourishing in Port Dalhousie, which had 58 attractions. In those days<|fim_middle|> for only $147.40 per hour.
Rent the Lakeside Park Carousel
The Lakeside Park Carousel is available to rent for private function.
Download the Facility Rental Request Form
View the general terms and conditions for facility use
Friends of the Carousel | , more than a quarter million people annually crossed the lake in steamships to visit Port Dalhousie on weekends.
The carousel has 68 animals, including horses, lions, camels, goats and giraffes, plus four chariots. The accompanying music is played by an antique Frati band organ which uses a system of paper music rolls to serenade riders. Each animal has been hand carved and the horses still have real horsehair tails. The carousel animals have all been carefully restored by the Friends of the Carousel, who continue with annual maintenance and repair work to keep the carousel in sound working order.
The Lakeside Park Carousel is one of approximately 350 antique hand carved carousels still operating in North America - only nine of which are in Canada - and is considered fairly unique in size. The original Looff lion on the Lakeside Park Carousel is one of five existing Looff lions in all of North America and it is the only one that has its head turned to watch onlookers as it circles by. The second lion on the Carousel was carved in 2004 by the Friends of the Carousel to replace the original lion that was stolen in the 1970s.
The carousel continues to be beloved by all who come to visit it.
Give the gift of fun this year, with a Season Pass to the Carousel, for only $20.40 including HST, per person.
Photography Opportunities
The Carousel is available to rent for photos at $74.51 plus HST per 30 minutes.
Carousel Courtesy Ride Program
Looking for a fun and unique way to gain exposure for your business or organization? Sponsor an hour or afternoon of rides at the Lakeside Park Carousel | 355 |
It seems almost everyone who lives in the Portland Metro area has a lot going on. Are we surprised?
Our lovely stretch of neighborhood here in the Pacific Northwest simply has too much to offer. With kids strapped to our backs and groceries in our Subaru, we take an extra moment for that one cool thing we wanted to do or that beautiful vista on the side of the road. Well, most of the time. Just ask Tricia Laine.
"With a five-month old, I am not doing much extra-curricular activities these days," she says quite matter-of-factly.
"Last year I decided to sign up for STP, the famous two-hundred and four-mile bike ride from Seattle to Portland," she says.
This was, of course, before she had a child. Yet she remains undeterred.
At first glance, it appears Laine was inferencing that having a child might be slowing her, or husband Grant Laine down, and yet, like father and mother, like son?
Appropriate for these two fun-lovers that one of the first places they discover is… a beer porch.
But don't let us leave the impression Tricia Laine and Company are a pack of free-wheeling, bike riding, craft beer-drinking hip<|fim_middle|> and life interests Laine pursues – all while building a family and assisting cancer patients – are we surprised she enjoys a deep thought or two?
"It's all been really humbling," she says with a smile in her voice.
Much like this interview, yet another fascinating look at one of our very own PDX People, enriching city, community and family. Portland's got a lot to gain from people like Tricia Laine. | sters who happen to have a kid. They find as much time for careful planning as they do for craft beer and fun on two wheels.
"I always figured I would have kids. Grant I had been talking about it for a long time, so it was intentionally planned," Laine says.
Having a child opened an interesting new thought path in Laine's mind, considering her line of work as an outpatient chemotherapy infusion nurse.
With the number and diversity of activities | 92 |
Leveraging The First Comprehensive Measure Of Primal World Beliefs To Further Discussions In Political, Developmental, And Positive Psychology
Jeremy D. W Clifton
References (162)
If behavior is influenced by the perceived character of situations, many disciplines that study behavior may eventually need to take into account individual differences in the perceived character of the world. In the first effort to empirically map these perceptions, subjects varied on 26 dimensions, called primal world beliefs or primals, such as the belief that the world is abundant. This dissertation leverages the first comprehensive measure of primals to further discussions in political, developmental, clinical, and positive psychology. Chapter I challenges the consensus that political conservativism is distinguished by the belief that the world is dangerous. Results suggest previous research relied on a measure highlighting dangers conservatives fear and neglecting dangers liberals fear, when both perceive the world as almost equally dangerous (8 samples; total N=3,734). A novel account of political ideology is proposed based on more predictive primals. Chapter II discusses how primals might develop. The author distinguishes retrospective theories—where primals reflect the content of past experiences—from interpretive theories—where primals act as lenses for interpreting experiences while remaining uninfluenced by them—and suggests twelve ways each theory's relative merit can be empirically tested. A novel comprehensive framework for considering experiences in relation to any new construct is also proposed. Chapter III explores primals' wellbeing-related correlates. By showing that many parents aim to teach negative primals to their children, some prevalence for meta-beliefs (i.e., beliefs about beliefs) associating negative primals with positive outcomes is established. Study 2 tests these meta-beliefs in six samples (total N=4,535) in regards to eight outcomes: job success, job satisfaction, emotion, depression, suicide, physical health, life satisfaction, and flourishing. Results indicate that negative primals are almost always associated with modestly to dramatically worse outcomes, across and within professions. In addition to filling a literature gap, and establishing bases for future comparison studies, findings could be used to strengthen interventions by undermining counterproductive meta-beliefs. Findings also underscore the urgent need for further research on the impact of primal world beliefs—teaching children or anyone that the world is a bad place in order to protect or prepare them may be ill-advised.
... For research uses, a guide to administering the Primals Inventory and selecting among versions is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.26716.72320. When length allows, we recommend starting research efforts with the PI-99 because intuitions have been wrong about which primals are relevant (e.g., dangerous world belief appears uncorrelated to political conservatism, Clifton, 2020a). When length precludes the PI-99, the PI-18 is likely the best balance of brevity and granularity. ...
Brief measures of the four highest-order primal world beliefs
PSYCHOL ASSESSMENT
Jeremy D.W. Clifton
David Bryce Yaden
Primal world beliefs ("primals") are beliefs about the basic character of the world (e.g., "the world is an abundant place"). The first effort to empirically map primals identified over two dozen such beliefs. The four highest-order beliefs--the overall belief that the world is Good (vs. bad), followed by Good's three dimensions of Safe (vs. dangerous), Enticing (vs. dull), and Alive (vs. mechanistic)-were novel and strongly correlated to many theoretically relevant outcomes such as depression. However, measuring these four beliefs currently requires administering the 99-item Primals Inventory (PI-99) and computing lengthy subscales (71, 29, 28, and 14 items). This article validates briefer measures. Study 1 (N = 459) and Study 2 (N = 5,171) examines the dimensionality, internal reliability, and test-retest reliability of scores on an 18-item measure of Good, Safe, Enticing, and Alive (PI-18). Study 3 (N = 3,947) does the same for a briefer 6-item measure of overall Good world belief (PI-6). Study 4 (N = 5,794) compares both versions to the PI-99 (the gold standard) and 14 of its correlates, including depression and life satisfaction. We conclude by recommending the PI-6 and PI-18 for most research and clinical uses and note that correspondence of three parallel forms implies not only scale accuracy but also robustness of the latent phenomena. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).
Happy in a crummy world: Implications of primal world beliefs for increasing wellbeing through positive psychology interventions
Primal world beliefs are a recently-identified set of basic perceptions about the general character of reality (e.g. the world is boring) thought to have many psychological implications. This article explores implications relevant to wellbeing and positive intervention research. After summarizing the supposed general function of primal world beliefs, I specify ten hypotheses concerning gratitude, curiosity, optimism, trust, self-efficacy, positive emotions, engagement, meaning, life satisfaction, and overall wellbeing. Each variable may involve behavioral patterns that present as trait-like personality characteristics while actually being context-specific reactions to underlying (and malleable) perceptions. Experimental research could test these hypotheses by (a) examining whether primal world beliefs partially mediate the wellbeing impact of established interventions such as Three Good Things and (b) creating novel interventions specifically targeting primal world beliefs. To foster the latter, I discuss elements that novel interventions might incorporate, illustrating with an example called the Leaf Exercise.
Testing If Primal World Beliefs Reflect Experiences—Or at Least Some Experiences Identified ad hoc
Do negative primal world beliefs reflect experiences such as trauma, crime, or low socio-economic status? Clifton and colleagues recently suggested that primals—defined as beliefs about the general character of the world as a whole, such as the belief that the world is safe (vs. dangerous) and abundant (vs. barren)—may shape many of the most-studied variables in psychology. Yet researchers do not yet know why individuals adopt their primals nor the role of experience in shaping primals. Many theories can be called retrospective theories; these theories suggest that past experiences lead to the adoption of primals that reflect those experiences. For example, trauma increases the belief that the world is dangerous and growing up poor increases the belief that the world is barren. Alternatively, interpretive theories hold that primals function primarily as lenses on experiences while being themselves largely unaffected by them. This article identifies twelve empirical tests where each theory makes different predictions and hypothesizes that retrospective theories are typically less accurate than interpretive theories. I end noting that, even if retrospective theories are typically inaccurate, that does not imply experiences do not shape primals. I end by offering a conceptual architecture—the Cube Framework—for exploring the full range of human experience and suggest that, though psychologists have historically focused on negative, externally imposed experiences of short-duration (e.g., trauma), positive, internally driven, and longer-term experiences are also worth considering.
The higher-order structure of primal world beliefs in German-speaking countries: Adaptation and initial validation of the German Primals Inventory (PI-66-G)
PERS INDIV DIFFER
Alexander Stahlmann
Jennifer Hofmann
Willibald Ruch
Primal world beliefs–or primals–are a category of beliefs about the overall character of the world that inform individual differences in cognition, affect, and behavior. In a recent comprehensive effort, Clifton et al. (2019) cataloged 26 pervasive primals and developed the Primals Inventory (PI-99) to measure them. In this study (N = 592), we describe the adaptation and initial validation of the German Primals Inventory (PI-66-G), an instrument to measure primals in German-speaking countries. The PI-66-G's first-order structure was supported by exploratory factor analyses and the resulting scales demonstrated good reliability (median α = 0.81). Based on the PI-66-G, we extend Clifton et al.' (2019) work by modeling the primals' hierarchical structure: Higher-order factor analyses reproduced their three-level model including one primary primal (Good), the three original secondary primals (Safe, Enticing, Alive), and three additional secondary primals (Empowering, Communal, Fluid). In line with the previous findings, the PI-66-G's primals were differentially (but mainly positively) correlated with the Big Five and life satisfaction. The results suggest that primals can generally be organized in a hierarchical model, but that the current model cannot properly describe every primal. Based on our findings, we discuss three hypotheses that should be evaluated in future research.
The intent and extent of collective threats: A data-driven conceptualization of collective threats and their relation to political preferences
Dennis Kahn
Fredrik Björklund
Gilad Hirschberger
The purpose of the present article is to systematically investigate how people perceive collective threat and how such threat perceptions relate to political preferences. Existing threat taxonomies have been theoretically contrived and no attempt has been made thus far to examine how people spontaneously perceive threats. One area where this is of central importance is the relationship between political preferences and threat. Dominant theories in social psychology have studied security and stability threats and have concluded that conservatives are more sensitive to threats and more motivated to manage threat than liberals. Recent perspectives, however, have criticized this position and maintain that the relationship between threat and political preferences depends on how both constructs are defined. To resolve this issue, we carried out a systematic, data-driven investigation of how collective threats are perceived. In six preregistered, data-driven studies, carried out in large-scale, representative cross-cultural samples (aggregate N = 24,391), we show that people tend to categorize collective threats according to two dimensions – their intent (omission/commission) and extent (local/global). We show that whereas liberals are more concerned than conservatives by omission threats, conservatives are more concerned than liberals by commission threats. These results suggest that threat is a multidimensional construct and that political leftists and rightists do not differ in the extent to which they perceive threats, but rather in the way they prioritize different threats facing society.
Conservatives and liberals have similar physiological responses to threats
Nat. Hum. Behav.
Bert N. Bakker
Gijs Schumacher
Claire Gothreau
Kevin Arceneaux
About a decade ago, a study documented that conservatives have stronger physiological responses to threatening stimuli than liberals. This work launched an approach aimed at uncovering the biological roots of ideology. Despite wide-ranging scientific and popular impact, independent laboratories have not replicated the study. We conducted a pre-registered direct replication (n = 202) and conceptual replications in the United States (n = 352) and the Netherlands (n = 81). Our analyses do not support the conclusions of the original study, nor do we find evidence for broader claims regarding the effect of disgust and the existence of a physiological trait. Rather than studying unconscious responses as the real predispositions, alignment between conscious and unconscious responses promises deeper insights into the emotional roots of ideology.
Managing validity versus reliability trade-offs in scale-building decisions
Scale builders strive to maximize dual priorities: validity and reliability. While the literature is full of tips for increasing one, the other, or both simultaneously, how to navigate tensions between them is less clear. Confusion shrouds the nature, prevalence, and practical implications of trade-offs between validity and reliability-formerly called paradoxes. This confusion results in most trade-offs being resolved de facto at validity's expense despite validity being de jure the higher priority. Decades-long battles against clear measurement malpractice persist because unspecified trade-offs render scale-building decisions favoring validity perennially unattractive to scale builders. In light of this confusion, the goal of this article is to make plain that the source of validity versus reliability trade-offs is systematic error that contributes to item communality. Moreover, straightforward, nontrivial trade-offs pervade the scale-building process. This article highlights common trade-offs in 6 contexts: item content, item construction, item difficulty, item scoring, item order, and item analysis. I end with 5 recommendations for managing trade-offs and out 7 "dirty tricks" often used to exploit them when nobody's looking. In short, reviewers should require scale builders to declare how validity and reliability will be prioritized and penalize those who resolve trade-offs in goal-inconsistent ways. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).
Primal World Beliefs
Joshua Daniel Baker
Crystal L Park
Martin E P Seligman
Beck's insight—that beliefs about one's self, future, and environment shape behavior—transformed depression treatment. Yet environment beliefs remain relatively understudied. We introduce a set of environment beliefs— primal world beliefs or primals —that concern the world's overall character (e.g., the world is interesting, the world is dangerous ). To create a measure, we systematically identified candidate primals (e.g., analyzing tweets, historical texts, etc.); conducted exploratory factor analysis ( N = 930) and two confirmatory factor analyses ( N = 524; N = 529); examined sequence effects ( N = 219) and concurrent validity ( N = 122); and conducted test-retests over 2 weeks ( n = 122), 9 months ( n = 134), and 19 months (n = 398). The resulting 99-item Primals Inventory (PI-99) measures 26 primals with three overarching beliefs— Safe, Enticing , and Alive (mean α = .93)—that typically explain ∼55% of the common variance. These beliefs were normally distributed; stable (2 weeks, 9 months, and 19 month test-retest results averaged .88, .75, and .77, respectively); strongly correlated with many personality and wellbeing variables (e.g., Safe and optimism, r = .61; Enticing and depression, r = −.52; Alive and meaning, r = .54); and explained more variance in life satisfaction, transcendent experience, trust, and gratitude than the BIG 5 (3%, 3%, 6%, and 12% more variance, respectively). In sum, the PI-99 showed strong psychometric characteristics, primals plausibly shape many personality and wellbeing variables, and a broad research effort examining these relationships is warranted.
Lay Theories for Life Satisfaction and the Belief that Life Gets Better and Better
Michael A. Busseri
Mojan Naisani Samani
Many individuals believe that life gets better and better over time. To examine the sources and significance of such beliefs, we examined lay theories for life satisfaction (LS) in relation to individuals' beliefs concerning how their LS was unfolding over time. Two studies were conducted with online participants: one correlational (Study 1; N = 320, M age = 30.39, 55% male), the other experimental (Study 2; N = 321, M age = 30.46, 53% male). In both studies more incremental (vs. entity) lay theories were associated with more steeply inclining subjective trajectories for LS. Furthermore, both sets of beliefs had unique effects on individuals' goal-striving toward a brighter future life, as well as psychological adjustment (self-efficacy, hope, optimism, positive affect, negative affect). Thus, lay theories and subjective trajectories for LS share a common assumption concerning change in life satisfaction over time. And each set of beliefs plays a unique role in positive functioning.
The psychological bases of ideology and prejudice: Testing a dual process model
John Duckitt
Claire Wagner
Ilouize du Plessis
Ingrid Birum
The issue of personality and prejudice has been largely investigated in terms of authontananism and social dominance orientation. However, these seem more appropriately conceptualized as ideological attitudes than as personality dimensions. The authors describe a causal model linking dual dimensions of personality social world view, ideological attitudes, and intergroup attitudes. Structural equation modeling with data from American and White Afrikaner students supported the model, suggesting that social conformity and belief in a dangerous world influence authoritarian attitudes, whereas toughmindedness and belief in a competitive jungle world influence social dominance attitudes, and these two ideological attitude dimensions influence intergroup attitudes. The model implies that dual motivational and cognitive processes, which may be activated by different kinds of situational and intergroup dynamics, may underlie 2 distinct dimensions of prejudice.
Do p Values Lose Their Meaning in Exploratory Analyses? It Depends How You Define the Familywise Error Rate
Mark Rubin
Several researchers have recently argued that p values lose their meaning in exploratory analyses due to an unknown inflation of the alpha level (e.g., Nosek & Lakens, 2014; Wagenmakers, 2016). For this argument to be tenable, the familywise error rate must be defined in relation to the number of hypotheses that are tested in the same study or article. Under this conceptualization, the familywise error rate is usually unknowable in exploratory analyses because it is usually unclear how many hypotheses have been tested on a spontaneous basis and then omitted from the final research report. In the present article, I argue that it is inappropriate to conceptualize the familywise error rate in relation to the number of hypotheses that are tested. Instead, it is more appropriate to conceptualize familywise error in relation to the number of different tests that are conducted on the same null hypothesis in the same study. Under this conceptualization, alpha level adjustments in exploratory analyses are (a) less necessary and (b) objectively verifiable. As a result, p values do not lose their meaning in exploratory analyses.
Social and economic ideologies differentially predict prejudice across the political spectrum, but social issues are most divisive
Jarret T Crawford
Mark J. Brandt
Yoel Inbar
Matt Motyl
Liberals and conservatives both express prejudice toward ideologically dissimilar others (Brandt et al., 2014). Previous work on ideological prejudice did not take advantage of evidence showing that ideology is multidimensional, with social and economic ideologies representing related but separable belief systems. In 5 studies (total N = 4912), we test 3 competing hypotheses of a multidimensional account of ideological prejudice. The dimension-specific symmetry hypothesis predicts that social and economic ideologies differentially predict prejudice against targets who are perceived to vary on the social and economic political dimensions, respectively. The social primacy hypothesis predicts that such ideological worldview conflict is experienced more strongly along the social than economic dimension. The social-specific asymmetry hypothesis predicts that social conservatives will be more prejudiced than social liberals, with no specific hypotheses for the economic dimension. Using multiple target groups, multiple prejudice measures (e.g., global evaluations, behavior), and multiple social and economic ideology measures (self-placement, issue positions), we found relatively consistent support for the dimension-specific symmetry and social primacy hypotheses, and no support for the social-specific asymmetry hypothesis. These results suggest that worldview conflict and negative intergroup attitudes and behaviors are dimension-specific, but that the social dimension appears to inspire more political conflict than the economic dimension.
The PERMA-Profiler: A brief multidimensional measure of flourishing
Julie Butler
Margaret L Kern
In the book Flourish (2011), Seligman defined wellbeing in terms of five pillars: Positive emotion, Engagement, Relationships, Meaning, and Accomplishment, or PERMA. We developed the PERMA-Profiler as a brief measure of PERMA. We first compiled hundreds of theoretically relevant items. Three studies ( N = 7,188) reduced, tested, and refined items, resulting in a final set of 15 questions (three items per PERMA domain). Eight additional filler items were added, which assess overall wellbeing, negative emotion, loneliness, and physical health, resulting in a final 23-item measure. A series of eight additional studies ( N = 31,966) were conducted to test the psychometrics of the measure. The PERMA-Profiler demonstrates acceptable model fit, internal and cross-time consistency, and evidence for content, convergent, and divergent validity. Scores are reported visually as a profile across domains, reflecting the multidimensional nature of flourishing. The PERMA-Profiler adds to the toolbox of wellbeing measures, allowing individuals to monitor their wellbeing across multiple psychosocial domains.
The world is a scary place: Individual differences in belief in a dangerous world predict specific intergroup prejudices
GROUP PROCESS INTERG
Corey L Cook
Yexin Jessica Li
Steve M. Newell
Rebecca Neel
Research suggests that people chronically concerned with safety, as measured by the Belief in a Dangerous World (BDW) Scale, are prone to intergroup prejudice and likely to endorse negative stereotypes under conditions eliciting concern for safety. Using a sociofunctional, threat-based approach to prejudice, the current research tested whether people with high BDW report increased prejudice specifically toward groups stereotypically associated with safety-related threats compared to groups associated with unrelated threats. Studies 1 and 2 found that higher BDW predicts increased negativity, safety-related concern, and fear toward groups stereotypically associated with threats to safety (e.g., illegal immigrants and Muslims) compared to groups thought to pose unrelated threats (e.g., gay men and obese people). Study 3 activated concern for safety using a news story detailing increased crime (vs. a control story), finding an interaction between safety concern activation, target group, and BDW, such that situational threat concern elicited greater prejudice toward Mexican Americans, but not toward Asian Americans, from those participants with higher BDW. These studies suggest that individual differences in concern for safety predict specific prejudices (e.g., fear and social distancing) toward distinct groups rather than general outgroup negativity.
Assumptive worlds and the stress of traumatic events: Applications of the schema construct
SOC COGNITION
Ronnie Janoff-Bulman
The empirical status of cognitive-behavioral therapy: A review of meta-analyses
CLIN PSYCHOL REV
Andrew C Butler
Jason E Chapman
Evan M Forman
Aaron T. Beck
This review summarizes the current meta-analysis literature on treatment<|fim_middle|> of more than 1.7 million people from 2,425 counties in the United States. Results showed that higher income inequality was associated with stronger relative income effects. In other words, people were more strongly influenced by the income of their neighbors when income inequality was high. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).
Do Shattered Worldviews Lead to Complicated Grief? Prospective and Longitudinal Analyses
J SOC CLIN PSYCHOL
Gabriele Prati
George A Bonanno
Theories of complicated grief (CG) and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) posit a central etiological and maintaining role for global beliefs about the world (Janoff-Bulman, 1992). In two studies using separate bereaved samples, we examined these theoretical postulates. Study 1 included prospective data on bereaved spouses and nonbereaved controls at baseline and 6-months post-loss. High pre-loss justice beliefs and acceptance of death prospectively predicted lower depression in bereaved but not control participants, providing evidence for buffering effects. Study 2 used longitudinal data on bereaved spouses and parents (4- and 18-months post-loss), and matched nonbereaved controls. In comparisons to matched controls, bereaved persons showed more benevolent but less meaningful worldviews, and violent or sudden loss was not associated with negative worldviews. In contrast to theoretical proposals, early benevolence, and meaningfulness beliefs showed no longitudinal relation to later PTSD, grief, and depression symptoms. By contrast, early PTSD, grief, and depression predicted later levels of benevolence. Findings support that pre-loss worldviews can buffer the impact of loss, that post-loss worldviews have minimal effects on subsequent adjustment, and that grief sympto 63ms can compromise subsequent worldviews.
Schematic Principles in Human Memory
Healthy in a Crummy World: Implications of Primal World Beliefs for Health Psychology
MED HYPOTHESES
Eric S. Kim
The adaptive, approach-oriented correlates of belief in a just world for the self: A review of the research
Jonathan David Bartholomaeus
Peter Strelan
Over the past 50+ years researchers have dedicated considerable effort towards studying the belief in a just world (BJW). A significant development in the field was the introduction of the bidimensional model, which indicates differential outcomes for the belief in a just world for the self (BJW-self) when contrasted with the belief in a just world for others (BJW-general). Theorizing and research on BJW-general is well-established. However, the distinction between the two spheres, and specifically the unique characteristics and correlates of BJW-self, are not yet widely acknowledged by researchers. Therefore, we present a review of the BJW-self literature, in three parts. First, we outline the fundamental tenants of justice motive theory and the chronology of BJW-self research. Second, we discuss the notable relationships that have emerged from this literature, in particular the links between BJW-self and wellbeing, coping with negative life events, prosocial behaviours, and a positive future orientation. Finally, we suggest avenues for future research and theoretical advance.
When Acute Adversity Improves Psychological Health: A Social-Contextual Framework
Human beings are routinely exposed to varying forms of acute adversity. Our responses take varying forms too, ranging from chronic distress to resilience. Although this pronounced variability is widely recognized, one possible outcome of acute adversity has been invariably, though understandably, ignored: an improvement in psychological and social functioning. In this analysis, I argue that, under some conditions, people can experience marked psychological improvement after acute adversity. I describe this response pattern as psychosocial gains from adversity (PGA) and define it as favorable and reliable change on an index of psychological functioning from before to after exposure to adversity. In the present article, first I distinguish PGA from traditional perspectives on growth after adversity on the basis of key conceptual differences. I then review empirical evidence for PGA as a replicable response pattern following different forms of adversity, including bereavement, military deployment, and mass trauma. I propose a multilevel theoretical model for PGA that focuses on automatic prosocial affiliative behaviors and group-level contextual factors that are conditioned by acute adversity. I describe moderators and boundary conditions at different levels of analysis that will enhance or detract from the likelihood of PGA. I conclude with the implications of PGA for theory and empirical research on postadversity outcomes and outline a research agenda to better understand it.
From ordinary to extraordinary: A framework of experience types
J LEISURE RES
Mat Duerden
Neil Lundberg
Peter J. Ward
Ramon B. Zabriskie
Understanding the nature of, and how to design, structured experiences has become an increasingly salient topic for academics and professionals over the past two decades. Despite the rise in interest in experiences, the related academic literature is fragmented and often atheoretical. To address this situation, this article presents a framework of experiences—including construct definitions and propositions—to help guide the research and design experiences. The framework considers the realm of all possible experiences from subconscious to conscious and subdivides conscious experiences into ordinary and extraordinary dimensions. The framework further classifies extraordinary experiences as memorable, meaningful, and transformational. The distinction between the classes of extraordinary experiences are based on key characteristics of emotion, discovery, and change.
Political attitudes as predictors of the multiple dimensions of mental health stigma
INT J SOC PSYCHIATR
Joseph S. DeLuca
John Vaccaro
Jenna Seda
Philip T Yanos
Background: Mental health (MH) stigma is multidimensional and remains common in the United States and throughout the world. While sociopolitical attitudes such as right-wing authoritarianism (RWA) have emerged as strong predictors of some aspects of MH stigma, no study has assessed the relationship between RWA and multidimensional components of MH stigma, or linked this relationship to a theory of stigma. Aims: The association between RWA and multiple stigma outcomes, including stereotypes, attributions/negative affect, social distance, microaggressions and help-seeking self-stigma was assessed controlling for covariates, including education, age, social desirability, race/ethnicity, gender, geographic location and prior contact with mental illness. Method: A total of 518 US residents (from all geographic regions; convenience sample) completed an online survey. Results: Findings indicated that RWA was significantly associated with all MH stigma dimensions analyzed, even after controlling for covariates. A hypothesized mediator for this relationship, dangerous world beliefs, was not supported as a theoretical explanation. Conclusion: Right-wing authoritarianism predicts various dimensions of mental health stigma, but more research is needed to determine the theoretical underpinnings. These current findings may guide research in this area and be used to target a variety of conservative audiences for stigma reduction.
Treating the Trauma of Rape: Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for PTSD
Am J Psychother
Elizabeth M. Ellis
PERMA and the building blocks of well-being
Martin E. P. Seligman
Seligman (2011) hypothesized that PERMA (Positive Emotion, Engagement, Relationships, Meaning, and Accomplishment) are the elements of well-being. Goodman, Disabato, Kashdan & Kaufmann (2017) reported strong evidence that subjective well-being is the final common path of such elements and their data are entirely consistent with Seligman's hypothesis. They argued, incorrectly however, that he suggested that PERMA constituted a different kind of well-being rather than just its building blocks. The complicated issue, one that transcends psychometrics, of how to decide on elements of well-being is discussed.
Responses to Victimizations and Belief in a Just World
Leo Montada
Melvin J. Lerner
The preparation of this volume began with a conference held at Trier University, approximately thirty years after the publication of the first Belief in a Just World (BJW) manuscript. The location of the conference was especially appropriate given the continued interest that the Trier faculty and students had for BJW research and theory. As several chapters in this volume document, their research together with the other contributors to this volume have added to the current sophistication and status of the BJW construct. In the 1960s and 1970s Melvin Lerner, together with his students and colleagues, developed his justice motive theory. The theory of Belief in a Just World (BJW) was part of that effort. BJW theory, meanwhile in its thirties, has become very influential in social and behavioral sciences. As with every widely applied concept and theory there is a natural develop mental history that involves transformations, differentiation of facets, and efforts to identify further theoretical relationships. And, of course, that growth process will not end unless the theory ceases to develop. In this volume this growth is reconstructed along Furnham's stage model for the development of scientific concepts. The main part of the book is devoted to current trends in theory and research.
Moral foundations, worldviews, moral absolutism and belief in conspiracy theories
INT J PSYCHOL
Mauro Giacomantonio
Marco Lauriola
In the present research, we examined whether individual differences in basic moral concerns might be related to a greater endorsement of conspiracy theories. Building on the notion that conspiracy theories often deal with super-individual relevant events in which a group perspective is central, we proposed that individual differences in moral concerns pertaining to group- and community-concerns (i.e., binding moral foundations) rather than to individual well-being (i.e., individualising moral foundations) would be positively associated with conspiracy beliefs. We further hypothesised that such relations would be totally mediated by beliefs in a dangerous world and by embracing moral absolutism. We found support for these predictions in two community samples (Ns: 319; 514). Theoretical implications were discussed.
The Politics of Fear: Is There an Ideological Asymmetry in Existential Motivation?
John T Jost
Chadly Stern
Nicholas O. Rule
Joanna Sterling
A meta-analysis by Jost, Glaser, Kruglanski, and Sulloway (2003) suggested that existential needs to reduce threat were associated with political conservatism. Nevertheless, some maintain that fear plays as prevalent a role on the left as the right. In an attempt to resolve this issue, we reviewed evidence from 134 different samples (N = 369,525) and 16 countries-a database 16 times larger than those previously considered. Although the association between fear of death and conservatism was not reliable, there was a significant effect of mortality salience (r = .08-.13) and a significant association between subjective perceptions of threat and conservatism (r = .12-.31). Exposure to objectively threatening circumstances, such as terrorist attacks, was associated with a "conservative shift" at individual (r = .07-.14) and aggregate (r = .29-.66) levels of analysis. Psychological reactions to fear and threat thus convey a small-to-moderate political advantage for conservative leaders, parties, policies, and ideas.
Generalized Expectancies for Internal versus External Control of Reinforcement
Psychol Monogr
J.B. Rotter
The self-fulfilling prophecy
R.K. Merton
Cognitive ability and authoritarianism: Understanding support for Trump and Clinton
Becky Choma
Yaniv Hanoch
With Donald Trump the Republican nominee and Hillary Clinton the Democratic nominee for the 2016 U.S. Presidential election, speculations of why Trump resonates with many Americans are widespread - as are suppositions of whether, independent of party identification, people might vote for Hillary Clinton. The present study, using a sample of American adults (n = 406), investigated whether two ideological beliefs, namely, right-wing authoritarianism (RWA) and social dominance orientation (SDO) uniquely predicted Trump support and voting intentions for Clinton. Cognitive ability as a predictor of RWA and SDO was also tested. Path analyses, controlling for political party identification, revealed that higher RWA and SDO uniquely predicted more favorable attitudes of Trump, greater intentions to vote for Trump, and lower intentions to vote for Clinton. Lower cognitive ability predicted greater RWA and SDO and indirectly predicted more favorable Trump attitudes, greater intentions to vote for Trump and lower intentions to vote for Clinton.
The Belief in a Just World
The "belief in a just world" refers to those more or less articulated assumptions which underlie the way people orient themselves to their environment. These assumptions have a functional component which is tied to the image of a manageable and predictable world. These are central to the ability to engage in long-term goal-directed activity. In order to plan, work for, and obtain things they want, and avoid those which are frightening or painful, people must assume that there are manageable procedures which are effective in producing the desired end states (Erikson, 1950; Merton, 1957).
The Behavioral Study and Treatment of Depression
Progr Behav Modif
PETER M. LEWINSOHN
The Nature of Melancholy: From Aristotle to Kristeva
Jennifer Radden
Spanning twenty-four centuries, this anthology collects over thirty selections of important Western writing about melancholy and its related conditions by philosophers, doctors, religious and literary figures, and modern psychologists. Truly interdisciplinary, it is the first such anthology. As it traces Western attitudes, it reveals a conversation across centuries and continents as the authors interpret, respond, and build on each other's work. The editor provides an extensive, in-depth introduction that draws links and parallels between the selections, and reveals the ambiguous relationship between these historical accounts of melancholy and today's psychiatric views on depression.
The social Readjustment Rating scale
J PSYCHOSOM RES
Thomas H. Holmes
R.K. Rahe
Do counselors use evidenced-based treatments? Results of a pilot survey
Thomas A Field
Elizabeth B Farnsworth
Steven K Nielsen
A randomized U.S. sample of National Certified Counselors (N = 76) completed a survey regarding their utilization of evidence-based treatments (EBTs) and attitudes toward evidence-based practice. The majority of participants reported utilizing EBTs within the past year (69.4%), and the number of EBTs utilized was surprisingly high (M = 9.17).
Attribution Theory in the Organizational Sciences: The Road Traveled and the Path Ahead
Kristen Madison
Mark J. Martinko
Tamara A. Crook
Individuals make attributions when they infer causes about particular outcomes. Several narrative reviews of attributional research have concluded that attributions matter in the workplace, but note that attribution theory has been underutilized in organizational research. To examine the predictive power of attributions in organizational contexts, we present a meta-analysis of existing attribution theory research. Our findings suggest that attributions have consistently demonstrated effect sizes that are comparable to more commonly utilized predictor variables of workplace outcomes. Expanding on these findings, we argue that attributions are an integral part of individuals' cognitive processes that are associated with critical organizational outcomes. We conclude with suggestions to help expand and optimize the contribution of attributional research to understanding and managing organizational outcomes.
Right-Wing Authoritarianism
Dana Ward
Bob Altemeyer
The Authoritarian Personality.
AM SOCIOL REV
Joseph H. Bunzel
T. W. Adorno
Else Frenkel-Brunswik
Marie Jahoda
The Belief in a Just World: A Fundamental Delusion.
CONTEMP SOCIOL
V. Lee Hamilton
1. The Belief in a Just World.- 2. The First Experiment: The Effect of Fortuitous Reward.- 3. The Second Experiment: Observers' Reactions to the "Innocent Victim".- 4. The Third Experiment: The Martyred and Innocent Victims.- 5. Three Experiments That Assess the Effects of Sex and Educational Background of Observers, Experimenter and Observer Influence on One Another, and the Reactions of "Informed" and Nonimplicated Observers.- 6. Reactions to the Belief in a Just World Theory and Findings: The "Nay-Sayers".- 7. Condemning the Victimized.- 8. The Assignment of Blame.- 9. The Response to Victimization: Extreme Tests of the Belief in a Just World.- 10. Who Believes in a Just World: Dimension or Style.- 11. Deserving versus Justice.- References.
The Satisfaction With Life Scale
R. A. Emmons
Randy J. Larsen
S. Griffen
This article reports the development and validation of a scale to measure global life satisfaction, the Satisfaction With Life Scale (SWLS). Among the various components of subjective well-being, the SWLS is narrowly focused to assess global life satisfaction and does not tap related constructs such as positive affect or loneliness. The SWLS is shown to have favorable psychometric properties, including high internal consistency and high temporal reliability. Scores on the SWLS correlate moderately to highly with other measures of subjective well-being, and correlate predictably with specific personality characteristics. It is noted that the SWLS is suited for use with different age groups, and other potential uses of the scale are discussed.
The Role of Positive Emotions in Positive Psychology
In this article, the author describes a new theoretical perspective on positive emotions and situates this new perspective within the emerging field of positive psychology. The broaden-and-build theory posits that experiences of positive emotions broaden people's momentary thought-action repertoires, which in turn serves to build their enduring personal resources, ranging from physical and intellectual resources to social and psychological resources. Preliminary empirical evidence supporting the broaden-and-build theory is reviewed, and open empirical questions that remain to be tested are identified. The theory and findings suggest that the capacity to experience positive emotions may be a fundamental human strength central to the study of human flourishing.
Belief in a Just World, Job Loss, and Depression
Socio Focus
D. E. Benson
This paper assesses the relationships among three variables: the degree to which individuals believe the world to be just; job loss; and depressive symptomatology. Using self-consistency and identity theory, we postulate that for those individuals who have recently lost a job, those who strongly believe that the world is just are more likely to experience depressive symptoms than those who have little belief that the world is just, and that such an event does not result in the weakening of the belief. Using questionnaire data from a random sample of 283 adult citizens of Northern Ireland, these observations are confirmed. The findings from this initial research effort are discussed in terms of self maintenance theories together with implications for the study of mental health.
Enemies of Freedom: Understanding Right-Wing Authoritarianism
The Construction of Reality in The Child
The Cognitive Therapy of Depression
Augustus John Rush
Brian F. Shaw
Gary Emery
Life Satisfaction and Its Correlates among College Students in China: A Test of Social Reference Theory
Sibo Zhao
Chengchao Zhou
Introduction To study life satisfaction and to test the role of social reference in determining the degree of life satisfaction, we examined a large sample of undergraduate students in China for the correlates of campus life satisfaction. Methods A questionnaire survey was administered at a university and the final sample consisted of 439 respondents aged between 17 and 24 years, from all over the country, and studying different subjects. Results It was found that freshman students tended to score higher on their life satisfaction than students in other grades and the college students' life satisfaction was positively related to female gender, self-esteem, social support, and the liberal attitudes on female gender roles, but negatively correlated with depression and suicidal ideation. Conclusions Contrary to common beliefs, students from an urban area or from better-off families were not necessarily more satisfied with current life than those students coming from the countryside or low income families. The findings were accounted for by the social reference theory and in this case college students' campus life satisfaction is basically affected by their pre-college life quality as a reference.
Discover more about: Positive Psychology
LEVERAGING THE FIRST COMPREHENSIVE MEASURE OF PRIMAL WORLD BELIEFS TO FURTHER DISCUSSIONS IN POLITIC...
If behavior is influenced by the perceived character of situations, many disciplines that study behavior may eventually need to take into account individual differences in the perceived character of the world. In the first effort to empirically map these perceptions, subjects varied on 26 dimensions, called primal world beliefs or primals, such as the belief that the world is abundant. This ... [Show full abstract] dissertation leverages the first comprehensive measure of primals to further discussions in political, developmental, clinical, and positive psychology. Chapter I challenges the consensus that political conservativism is distinguished by the belief that the world is dangerous. Results suggest previous research relied on a measure highlighting dangers conservatives fear and neglecting dangers liberals fear, when both perceive the world as almost equally dangerous (8 samples; total N=3,734). A novel account of political ideology is proposed based on more predictive primals. Chapter II discusses how primals might develop. The author distinguishes retrospective theories—where primals reflect the content of past experiences—from interpretive theories—where primals act as lenses for interpreting experiences while remaining uninfluenced by them—and suggests twelve ways each theory's relative merit can be empirically tested. A novel comprehensive framework for considering experiences in relation to any new construct is also proposed. Chapter III explores primals' wellbeing-related correlates. By showing that many parents aim to teach negative primals to their children, some prevalence for meta-beliefs (i.e., beliefs about beliefs) associating negative primals with positive outcomes is established. Study 2 tests these meta-beliefs in six samples (total N=4,535) in regards to eight outcomes: job success, job satisfaction, emotion, depression, suicide, physical health, life satisfaction, and flourishing. Results indicate that negative primals are almost always associated with modestly to dramatically worse outcomes, across and within professions. In addition to filling a literature gap, and establishing bases for future comparison studies, findings could be used to strengthen interventions by undermining counterproductive meta-beliefs. Findings also underscore the urgent need for further research on the impact of primal world beliefs—teaching children or anyone that the world is a bad place in order to protect or prepare them may be ill-advised.
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Join ResearchGate to discover and stay up-to-date with the latest research from leading experts in Positive Psychology and many other scientific topics. | outcomes of CBT for a wide range of psychiatric disorders. A search of the literature resulted in a total of 16 methodologically rigorous meta-analyses. Our review focuses on effect sizes that contrast outcomes for CBT with outcomes for various control groups for each disorder, which provides an overview of the effectiveness of cognitive therapy as quantified by meta-analysis. Large effect sizes were found for CBT for unipolar depression, generalized anxiety disorder, panic disorder with or without agoraphobia, social phobia, posttraumatic stress disorder, and childhood depressive and anxiety disorders. Effect sizes for CBT of marital distress, anger, childhood somatic disorders, and chronic pain were in the moderate range. CBT was somewhat superior to antidepressants in the treatment of adult depression. CBT was equally effective as behavior therapy in the treatment of adult depression and obsessive-compulsive disorder. Large uncontrolled effect sizes were found for bulimia nervosa and schizophrenia. The 16 meta-analyses we reviewed support the efficacy of CBT for many disorders. While limitations of the meta-analytic approach need to be considered in interpreting the results of this review, our findings are consistent with other review methodologies that also provide support for the efficacy CBT.
"Harder, Better, Faster, Stronger": Negative Comparison on Facebook and Adolescents' Life Satisfaction Are Reciprocally Related
Eline Frison
Steven Eggermont
Although a variety of studies have examined the predictors or outcomes of adolescents' social networking site use, these studies did not incorporate (1) an integrated, longitudinal approach to examine these relationships longitudinally in a single comprehensive model or (2) a differential approach to distinguish between different types of social networking site use. Therefore, this two-wave panel study (N = 1,612) developed an integrated and differential model to provide a deeper understanding of the relationships among loneliness, types of Facebook use, and adolescents' depressed mood. Using structural equation modeling, the results point to the presence of a poor-get-richer effect regarding active public Facebook use but reveal a poor-get-poorer effect regarding passive Facebook use. The discussion focuses on the explanation and understanding of these findings.
Can People Benefit From Acute Stress? Social Support, Psychological Improvement, and Resilience After the Virginia Tech Campus Shootings
Anthony Mancini
People's responses to acute stress are largely thought to comprise four prototypical patterns of resilience, gradual recovery, chronic distress, and delayed distress. Here we present evidence of an additional response pattern: psychological improvement. Three-hundred and sixty-eight female survivors of the Virginia Tech shootings completed assessments before the shooting, and at 2, 6, and 12 months post-shooting. Latent growth mixture modeling revealed distinct trajectories of resilience, chronic distress, delayed distress, continuous distress, and improvement. Although resilience was the most common pattern (56 – 59%), a trajectory of substantial improvement in anxiety and depression symptoms also emerged among 13.2% and 7.4% of the sample, respectively. In support of this pattern, improvement was distinctively associated with marked increases in perceived social support and gains in interpersonal resources. Findings suggest a more complex understanding of the impact of mass trauma and a key role for dynamic changes in social support following acute stress. http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/cpx Clinical Psychological Science
Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises
REV GEN PSYCHOL
Raymond Nickerson
Confirmation bias, as the term is typically used in the psychological literature, connotes the seeking or interpreting of evidence in ways that are partial to existing beliefs, expectations, or a hypothesis in hand. The author reviews evidence of such a bias in a variety of guises and gives examples of its operation in several practical contexts. Possible explanations are considered, and the question of its utility or disutility is discussed.
Income Inequality Is Associated With Stronger Social Comparison Effects: The Effect of Relative Income on Life Satisfaction
J PERS SOC PSYCHOL
Richard E. Lucas
Previous research has shown that having rich neighbors is associated with reduced levels of subjective well-being, an effect that is likely due to social comparison. The current study examined the role of income inequality as a moderator of this relative income effect. Multilevel analyses were conducted on a sample | 885 |
The Canon EOS 1100D (called Canon T3 in some regions) and the Canon EOS 1200D (labelled Canon T5 in some countries) are two digital cameras that were officially introduced, respectively, in February 2011 and February 2014. Both are DSLR (Digital Single Lens Reflex) cameras that are equipped with an APS-C sensor. The 1100D has a resolution of 12.2 megapixels, whereas the 1200D provides 17.9 MP. Read on to find out how these two cameras compare with respect to their body size, their sensors, their features, their input-output connections, and their reception by expert reviewers.
The physical size and weight of the Canon 1100D and the Canon 1200D are illustrated in the side-by-side display below. The two cameras are presented according to their relative size. Three consecutive perspectives<|fim_middle|> to sensor height) of 3:2.
With 17.9MP, the 1200D offers a higher resolution than the 1100D (12.2MP), but the 1200D has smaller individual pixels (pixel pitch of 4.31μm versus 5.15μm for the 1100D). Yet, the 1200D is a much more recent model (by 3 years) than the 1100D, and its sensor will have benefitted from technological advances during this time that enhance the light gathering capacity of its pixel-units.
The Canon EOS 1100D has a native sensitivity range from ISO 100 to ISO 6400 The corresponding ISO settings for the Canon EOS 1200D are ISO 100 to ISO 6400, with the possibility to increase the ISO range to 100-12800..
Many modern cameras cannot only take still pictures, but also record videos. The two cameras under consideration both have sensors whose read-out speed is fast enough to capture moving pictures, but the 1200D provides a better video resolution than the 1100D. It can shoot movie footage at 1080/30p, while the 1100D is limited to 720/30p.
Beyond body and sensor, cameras can and do differ across a range of features. The 1100D and the 1200D are similar in the sense that both have an optical viewfinder. The latter is useful for getting a clear image for framing even in brightly lit environments. The viewfinders of both cameras offer the same field of view (95%), as well as the same magnification (0.50x). The following table reports on some other key feature differences and similarities of the Canon 1100D, the Canon 1200D, and comparable cameras.
Concerning the storage of imaging data, both the 1100D and the 1200D write their files to SDXC cards.
For some imaging applications, the extent to which a camera can communicate with its environment can be an important aspect in the camera decision process. The table below provides an overview of the connectivity of the Canon EOS 1100D and Canon EOS 1200D and, in particular, the interfaces the cameras (and selected comparators) provide for accessory control and data transfer.
Both the 1100D and the 1200D have been discontinued, but can regularly be found used on eBay. The 1100D was replaced by the Canon 1200D, while the 1200D was followed by the Canon 1300D. Further information on the two cameras, as well as related accessories, can be found on the official Canon website.
So how do things add up? Is the Canon 1100D better than the Canon 1200D or vice versa? The listing below highlights the relative strengths of the two models.
More modern: Reflects 3 years of technical progress since the 1100D launch.
If the count of individual advantages (bullet points above) is taken as a guide, the 1200D emerges as the winner of the match-up (5 : 2 points). However, the pertinence of the various camera strengths will differ across photographers, so that you might want to weigh individual camera traits according to their importance for your own imaging needs before making a camera decision.
Do the specifications of the Canon 1100D and the Canon 1200D place the cameras among the top in their class? Find out in the latest Best DSLR Camera listing.
In any case, while the comparison of the spec-sheets of cameras can offer a general idea of their imaging potential, it says little about, for example, the shooting experience and imaging performance of the 1100D and the 1200D in practical situations. User reviews that are available, for instance, at amazon can sometimes shed light on these issues, but such feedback is all too often partial, inconsistent, and inaccurate. | from the front, the top, and the back are available. All width, height and depth measures are rounded to the nearest millimeter.
In this particular case, the Canon 1100D and the Canon 1200D have exactly the same width and height, and, thus, have identically-sized bodies. However, the 1200D is slightly lighter (3 percent) than the 1100D. In this context, it is worth noting that neither the 1100D nor the 1200D are weather-sealed.
Both cameras under consideration feature an APS-C sensor, but their sensors differ slightly in size. The sensor area in the 1200D is 3 percent bigger. They nevertheless have the same format factor of 1.6. Both cameras have a native aspect ratio (sensor width | 181 |
Here are some Second Edition related activites for this weekend!
Talk about species. There's a fairly settled thread on the gameplay forum about whether or not B'Elanna Torres is a Klingon. Spoiler: No! Feel free to take a look if you haven't.
Keep Keevan in Jail! In anticipation of the Mike Shea Bash (TM), there's a thread on how you can get him out of the brig. Spoiler: You can't! Feel free to partake when you have a moment!
Look at decks from this past weekend. Last week, I was sad because no one posted their decks. This week, the community delivered!
Thomas Weidemann played a self explanatory Species 8472 TOS Mirror. Benjamin Leibich broke out It's time to play the music, it's time to light<|fim_middle|> for him, but it didn't play out quite the way he had in mind. Feel free to read all about it in his tournament report. Matt S won his event with a Terok Nor Why face dilemmas? mill deck, which ahs enough dilemmas to not get in trouble with itself.
What is your favorite deck from this past weekend? What would you being deckwise to celebrate Mike Shea's Birthday? | the lights, it's time to meet the muppets on the muppet show tonight v1.1. This is the second go around for this deck, this time with a bit more diverse and robust collection of dilemmas. Johannes Mette's deck won the day with his Dominion LOL – I am stronger than you.
Matthew McClain played Treacherous Klingons Love Planet Conquest 2019. There are some cards from Far Beyond the Stars and Shattered Mirror in this deck for you to try out. Martin Drake played Our Own Dominion Deck while Rick Kinney went with Klingon Solver. Sean O'Reilly did well with his Nining to the Gamma Quadrant and Joseph Bazemore's Sad Borg Losers (Make Assimilation Great Again) did much better than the title would imply with Borg dissident's. Ted Reebel's Relativity (Updated) Triple HQ deck won the day.
Nathan Miracle played, and won the day, with 05. Bajoran Three Man Band. He was helped by not a single player having any micro-team hate, thought that will surely change going forward. Don't take my word for it, read it all in his tournament report.
Nerdopolis Prime's MACO and Chula Tacos (sound yummy!) is what you would expect. Julius Melhardt's Shouldn't we have turned left back there? is a mid-sized Klingon solver while Michael Albercht's Khan is Back uses the most recent card for that faction from Qpid. Stefan Slaby won the day with Just Jemming, a deck that is out for blood.
Lucas Thompson played a Tsukatse and Dominion Red Match District. He did well, but sadly didn't get anyone with his Target of Opportunity, according to his tournament report. This deck also features a good number of ships, enough for the Tacking into the Wind achievement, if you are so inclined. Matthew Zinno played Putting the K in KCA, trying out the latest headquarters. It won the day | 418 |
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