| # Beat-the-competition levers — measured
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| **Built:** 2026-07-22T13:18:23.675085+00:00
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| **Law:** S=K(T1+T2+T3) pin **D1D38A** (unchanged)
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| ## L1 — Product dual-student ensemble (no ref peek)
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| | System | sacreBLEU |
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| |--------|----------:|
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| | opus-mt-de-en b5 | 33.88 |
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| | NLLB-600M b5 | 33.37 |
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| | **Product ensemble (NLL pick)** | **34.54** |
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| | Oracle uF1 ensemble (upper) | 37.13 |
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| | Picks | {'opus': 1751, 'nllb': 1252} |
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| ## L3 — WMT finetune student (opus-mt-de-en)
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| | Metric | Value |
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| |--------|------:|
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| | steps | 2500 |
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| | train pairs | 60000 |
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| | avg loss last 100 | 2.1199 |
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| | **WMT test sacreBLEU** | **32.2** |
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| | chrF | 58.85 |
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| | path | `D:\training data\pflt_linguistics\13_huggingface\models\Helsinki-NLP__opus-mt-de-en-wmt-ft` |
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| ## L2 — Neural-first hybrid chat
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| | Metric | Value |
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| |--------|------:|
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| | sacreBLEU | **48.74** |
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| | BLEU-4 | 51.38 |
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| | routes | {'neural': 2800, 'densify': 400} |
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| | gap to chat 45 | -3.74 |
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| ## Gaps to beat commercial mid-bar
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| | Bar | Gap |
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| |-----|----:|
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| | Best single → 40 | 6.12 |
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| | Product ensemble → 40 | 5.46 |
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| | Finetuned → 40 | 7.8 |
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| | Best single → 48 | 14.12 |
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| **Mid-40 cleared?** False
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| ## Next if still short of 40
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| 1. Longer finetune / full WMT train epoch
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| 2. Ensemble finetuned-opus + NLLB
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| 3. Larger student (NLLB-1.3B) when disk allows
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| ## L3b — Safer finetune (freeze encoder, lr=2e-5, 1500 steps)
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| | Metric | Value |
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| |--------|------:|
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| | WMT test sacreBLEU | **33.86** |
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| | vs base opus 33.88 | **-0.02** (flat / no win) |
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| | Aggressive FT v1 (full model 2500 steps) | **32.2** (regressed) |
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| **Finding:** Short domain FT of opus-mt-de-en does not cross 40. Need longer careful training, better data filter, or larger student.
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| ## L2 win
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| Neural-first hybrid chat **48.74 sacre** (routes neural=2800 densify=400) — **past chat mid bar 45**.
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