| Rank,Team,Model Organization,Model,Dataset,N dataset,Dataset 95% CI,Market,N market,Market 95% CI,Overall,N,Overall 95% CI,Supers > Forecaster?,p-val Supers > Forecaster?,Forecaster > Public?,p-val Forecaster > Public?,Pct times № 1,Pct times top 5%,x% oracle equiv,Peer,BSS |
| 1,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Superforecaster median forecast,0.152,477,"[0.141, 0.162]",0.035,54,"[0.016, 0.053]",0.093,531,"[0.083, 0.104]",—,—,Yes,<0.001,94.297,100.0,69%,0.185,0.097 |
| 2,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Public median forecast,0.185,477,"[0.171, 0.199]",0.075,54,"[0.055, 0.097]",0.13,531,"[0.118, 0.143]",Yes,<0.001,—,—,0.0,4.952,64%,0.148,0.06 |
| 2,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash-Preview-04-17 (zero shot),0.167,934,"[0.157, 0.176]",0.094,60,"[0.063, 0.131]",0.13,994,"[0.114, 0.15]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.51,0.0,10.255,64%,0.17,0.051 |
| 4,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (zero shot),0.165,934,"[0.158, 0.171]",0.107,60,"[0.071, 0.151]",0.136,994,"[0.118, 0.158]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.68,0.0,2.451,63%,0.165,0.046 |
| 5,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (scratchpad),0.173,934,"[0.166, 0.18]",0.1,60,"[0.07, 0.137]",0.137,994,"[0.121, 0.155]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.73,0.0,0.35,63%,0.164,0.045 |
| 6,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (scratchpad),0.176,6468,"[0.173, 0.179]",0.101,420,"[0.088, 0.114]",0.138,6888,"[0.132, 0.145]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.89,0.0,0.0,63%,0.171,0.038 |
| 6,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (zero shot),0.175,1851,"[0.171, 0.179]",0.101,135,"[0.076, 0.129]",0.138,1986,"[0.126, 0.152]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.82,0.0,0.25,63%,0.182,0.034 |
| 8,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (scratchpad),0.173,1851,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.114,135,"[0.091, 0.137]",0.144,1986,"[0.132, 0.155]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.95,0.0,0.0,62%,0.176,0.028 |
| 8,ForecastBench,xAI,Grok-beta (zero shot),0.196,1835,"[0.191, 0.201]",0.093,122,"[0.07, 0.117]",0.144,1957,"[0.132, 0.157]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.95,0.0,0.0,62%,0.169,0.036 |
| 10,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-R1 (scratchpad),0.174,3698,"[0.171, 0.177]",0.116,249,"[0.101, 0.132]",0.145,3947,"[0.137, 0.153]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.98,0.0,0.0,62%,0.166,0.033 |
| 11,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (scratchpad),0.194,6468,"[0.191, 0.197]",0.103,420,"[0.089, 0.118]",0.148,6888,"[0.141, 0.156]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,61%,0.161,0.028 |
| 12,ForecastBench,Qwen,QwQ-32B-Preview (scratchpad),0.197,1849,"[0.189, 0.205]",0.102,121,"[0.08, 0.126]",0.15,1970,"[0.138, 0.162]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,61%,0.153,0.032 |
| 13,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (zero shot),0.183,6468,"[0.18, 0.186]",0.122,420,"[0.105, 0.14]",0.152,6888,"[0.144, 0.162]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.157,0.024 |
| 13,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Imputed Forecaster,0.25,11593,"[0.25, 0.25]",0.054,740,"[0.044, 0.064]",0.152,12333,"[0.147, 0.157]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.155,0.025 |
| 13,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (zero shot),0.17,3207,"[0.166, 0.175]",0.133,173,"[0.103, 0.169]",0.152,3380,"[0.137, 0.17]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,61%,0.156,0.023 |
| 16,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (zero shot),0.193,6468,"[0.191, 0.196]",0.113,420,"[0.096, 0.131]",0.153,6888,"[0.144, 0.162]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.156,0.024 |
| 16,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (scratchpad),0.175,4141,"[0.169, 0.181]",0.131,233,"[0.105, 0.159]",0.153,4374,"[0.139, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,61%,0.154,0.024 |
| 16,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (scratchpad),0.173,680,"[0.163, 0.183]",0.132,31,"[0.08, 0.201]",0.153,711,"[0.126, 0.187]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.93,0.0,0.0,61%,0.151,0.016 |
| 16,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (zero shot),0.181,4821,"[0.176, 0.185]",0.125,264,"[0.101, 0.153]",0.153,5085,"[0.141, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.153,0.022 |
| 20,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (zero shot),0.165,680,"[0.157, 0.173]",0.144,31,"[0.066, 0.217]",0.154,711,"[0.114, 0.191]",Yes,<0.01,No,0.88,0.0,3.952,61%,0.15,0.015 |
| 20,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514 (zero shot),0.174,680,"[0.165, 0.183]",0.135,31,"[0.069, 0.204]",0.154,711,"[0.12, 0.189]",Yes,<0.01,No,0.91,0.0,1.601,61%,0.15,0.015 |
| 22,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (scratchpad),0.173,3207,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.142,173,"[0.112, 0.175]",0.158,3380,"[0.143, 0.174]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.15,0.017 |
| 22,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (zero shot),0.158,680,"[0.149, 0.167]",0.158,31,"[0.111, 0.219]",0.158,711,"[0.134, 0.188]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.98,0.0,0.0,60%,0.146,0.011 |
| 24,ForecastBench,Meta,Meta-Llama-3.1-405B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot),0.2,1848,"[0.195, 0.205]",0.12,103,"[0.089, 0.154]",0.16,1951,"[0.144, 0.177]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.136,0.016 |
| 25,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (zero shot),0.193,3698,"[0.188, 0.197]",0.13,249,"[0.111, 0.15]",0.161,3947,"[0.151, 0.172]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.149,0.017 |
| 25,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot),0.193,11593,"[0.191, 0.196]",0.13,740,"[0.117, 0.143]",0.161,12333,"[0.155, 0.168]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.146,0.015 |
| 25,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad),0.191,10915,"[0.189, 0.194]",0.13,703,"[0.118, 0.142]",0.161,11618,"[0.155, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.145,0.016 |
| 28,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Pro (zero shot),0.153,680,"[0.144, 0.161]",0.171,31,"[0.067, 0.278]",0.162,711,"[0.109, 0.215]",Yes,<0.01,No,0.88,0.7,5.253,60%,0.142,0.007 |
| 28,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (zero shot),0.198,4620,"[0.195, 0.202]",0.126,317,"[0.11, 0.143]",0.162,4937,"[0.154, 0.171]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.151,0.015 |
| 30,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (scratchpad),0.188,922,"[0.183, 0.194]",0.138,68,"[0.101, 0.175]",0.163,990,"[0.145, 0.182]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.161,0.01 |
| 31,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot),0.199,4934,"[0.195, 0.202]",0.13,322,"[0.111, 0.148]",0.164,5256,"[0.155, 0.174]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.133,0.014 |
| 31,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-2025-08-07 (zero shot),0.157,680,"[0.148, 0.165]",0.17,31,"[0.094, 0.26]",0.164,711,"[0.126, 0.209]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.95,0.0,0.25,60%,0.141,0.006 |
| 33,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (scratchpad),0.185,5023,"[0.181, 0.188]",0.147,272,"[0.128, 0.167]",0.166,5295,"[0.156, 0.176]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.142,0.008 |
| 33,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad),0.199,1269,"[0.192, 0.207]",0.132,118,"[0.098, 0.166]",0.166,1387,"[0.148, 0.183]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.117,0.02 |
| 35,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot),0.219,6468,"[0.215, 0.222]",0.116,420,"[0.1, 0.132]",0.167,6888,"[0.159, 0.176]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.142,0.009 |
| 35,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Mini-2025-08-07 (zero shot),0.168,680,"[0.159, 0.177]",0.167,31,"[0.11, 0.24]",0.167,711,"[0.138, 0.203]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,59%,0.137,0.002 |
| 37,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-05-13 (zero shot),0.215,6434,"[0.212, 0.219]",0.125,386,"[0.109, 0.141]",0.17,6820,"[0.162, 0.179]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.137,0.008 |
| 37,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (scratchpad),0.201,6468,"[0.198, 0.204]",0.138,420,"[0.125, 0.153]",0.17,6888,"[0.163, 0.177]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.139,0.007 |
| 37,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad),0.207,1269,"[0.198, 0.215]",0.134,118,"[0.104, 0.164]",0.17,1387,"[0.154, 0.186]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015 |
| 40,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (scratchpad),0.211,1835,"[0.203, 0.218]",0.132,122,"[0.112, 0.154]",0.171,1957,"[0.16, 0.183]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.142,0.009 |
| 41,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad),0.209,1269,"[0.2, 0.219]",0.137,118,"[0.107, 0.168]",0.173,1387,"[0.157, 0.188]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.109,0.012 |
| 42,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-4-Scout-17B-16E-Instruct (zero shot),0.23,4378,"[0.226, 0.235]",0.117,257,"[0.1, 0.136]",0.174,4635,"[0.165, 0.184]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.13,0.005 |
| 43,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot),0.215,1848,"[0.209, 0.221]",0.135,103,"[0.106, 0.168]",0.175,1951,"[0.16, 0.191]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.121,0.001 |
| 44,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.224,2174,"[0.216, 0.231]",0.129,167,"[0.095, 0.165]",0.176,2341,"[0.159, 0.195]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.114,0.005 |
| 45,ForecastBench,Moonshot,Kimi-K2-Instruct (zero shot),0.198,2039,"[0.192, 0.206]",0.155,101,"[0.113, 0.199]",0.177,2140,"[0.155, 0.199]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.142,-0.005 |
| 45,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Naive Forecaster,0.299,11593,"[0.294, 0.303]",0.055,740,"[0.045, 0.065]",0.177,12333,"[0.172, 0.182]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.13,0.0 |
| 45,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (scratchpad),0.197,929,"[0.191, 0.203]",0.158,67,"[0.124, 0.193]",0.177,996,"[0.161, 0.195]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.138,-0.007 |
| 45,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-20250514 (scratchpad),0.172,681,"[0.163, 0.18]",0.182,33,"[0.122, 0.252]",0.177,714,"[0.147, 0.212]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.15,0.001 |
| 49,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot),0.197,4934,"[0.193, 0.201]",0.159,322,"[0.137, 0.182]",0.178,5256,"[0.167, 0.189]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.119,0.001 |
| 49,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (scratchpad),0.214,1269,"[0.205, 0.222]",0.143,118,"[0.114, 0.169]",0.178,1387,"[0.163, 0.192]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.104,0.007 |
| 49,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot),0.225,1269,"[0.214, 0.236]",0.131,118,"[0.095, 0.166]",0.178,1387,"[0.159, 0.197]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.104,0.007 |
| 52,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2407 (zero shot),0.215,6434,"[0.212, 0.218]",0.144,386,"[0.127, 0.161]",0.179,6820,"[0.171, 0.188]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.128,-0.001 |
| 53,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad),0.207,1269,"[0.2, 0.215]",0.152,118,"[0.125, 0.18]",0.18,1387,"[0.166, 0.195]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.103,0.005 |
| 54,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad),0.201,4934,"[0.197, 0.205]",0.168,322,"[0.15, 0.185]",0.185,5256,"[0.176, 0.194]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.112,-0.006 |
| 55,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad),0.215,1269,"[0.206, 0.224]",0.158,118,"[0.124, 0.19]",0.186,1387,"[0.169, 0.203]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.096,-0.001 |
| 56,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (zero shot),0.21,1269,"[0.201, 0.219]",0.164,118,"[0.132, 0.193]",0.187,1387,"[0.171, 0.202]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.096,-0.001 |
| 57,ForecastBench,Z.ai,GLM-4.5-Air-FP8 (zero shot),0.197,680,"[0.185, 0.21]",0.179,31,"[0.115, 0.251]",0.188,711,"[0.156, 0.225]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.116,-0.019 |
| 58,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.22,1269,"[0.212, 0.229]",0.16,118,"[0.131, 0.189]",0.19,1387,"[0.175, 0.205]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.092,-0.005 |
| 59,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (zero shot),0.25,1835,"[0.241, 0.26]",0.131,122,"[0.099, 0.166]",0.191,1957,"[0.174, 0.208]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.123,-0.011 |
| 59,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot),0.22,1269,"[0.212, 0.228]",0.163,118,"[0.131, 0.194]",0.191,1387,"[0.175, 0.208]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.091,-0.006 |
| 61,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.229,3086,"[0.224, 0.235]",0.157,219,"[0.133, 0.181]",0.193,3305,"[0.181, 0.206]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.104,-0.013 |
| 61,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.241,1269,"[0.227, 0.254]",0.145,118,"[0.104, 0.187]",0.193,1387,"[0.171, 0.215]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.09,-0.007 |
| 61,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash (zero shot),0.17,680,"[0.159, 0.181]",0.216,31,"[0.127, 0.32]",0.193,711,"[0.148, 0.246]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.112,-0.024 |
| 64,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot),0.233,1269,"[0.224, 0.243]",0.155,118,"[0.117, 0.193]",0.194,1387,"[0.174, 0.214]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.089,-0.009 |
| 65,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2411 (zero shot),0.218,2039,"[0.211, 0.225]",0.171,101,"[0.14, 0.205]",0.195,2140,"[0.179, 0.212]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.124,-0.023 |
| 66,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.234,1269,"[0.225, 0.244]",0.163,118,"[0.127, 0.202]",0.199,1387,"[0.18, 0.219]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.084,-0.013 |
| 67,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Nano-2025-08-07 (zero shot),0.199,680,"[0.184, 0.214]",0.202,31,"[0.141, 0.277]",0.201,711,"[0.169, 0.239]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.104,-0.032 |
| 68,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad),0.242,1269,"[0.23, 0.253]",0.165,118,"[0.132, 0.197]",0.203,1387,"[0.185, 0.221]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,55%,0.079,-0.018 |
| 69,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot),0.238,1269,"[0.231, 0.246]",0.176,118,"[0.141, 0.212]",0.207,1387,"[0.189, 0.225]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.075,-0.022 |
| 69,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.23,1269,"[0.221, 0.239]",0.184,118,"[0.154, 0.211]",0.207,1387,"[0.192, 0.221]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,55%,0.076,-0.022 |
| 71,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot),0.239,1269,"[0.228, 0.25]",0.193,118,"[0.151, 0.235]",0.216,1387,"[0.194, 0.237]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.067,-0.03 |
| 72,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.256,1269,"[0.247, 0.266]",0.182,118,"[0.15, 0.212]",0.219,1387,"[0.202, 0.235]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,53%,0.063,-0.034 |
| 73,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot),0.262,4934,"[0.257, 0.267]",0.183,322,"[0.169, 0.197]",0.222,5256,"[0.215, 0.23]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,53%,0.075,-0.044 |
| 74,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.262,1269,"[0.254, 0.27]",0.205,118,"[0.17, 0.238]",0.233,1387,"[0.216, 0.25]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,52%,0.049,-0.048 |
| 75,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad),0.265,1269,"[0.255, 0.275]",0.214,118,"[0.181, 0.246]",0.24,1387,"[0.222, 0.256]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.043,-0.054 |
| 76,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad),0.275,1269,"[0.265, 0.285]",0.212,118,"[0.175, 0.248]",0.243,1387,"[0.224, 0.263]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.039,-0.058 |
| 77,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Always 0.5,0.25,11593,"[0.25, 0.25]",0.25,740,"[0.25, 0.25]",0.25,12333,"[0.25, 0.25]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,50%,0.057,-0.073 |
| 78,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.282,1269,"[0.271, 0.292]",0.301,118,"[0.257, 0.345]",0.292,1387,"[0.269, 0.314]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,46%,-0.009,-0.106 |
| 79,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Always 0,0.426,11593,"[0.418, 0.434]",0.168,740,"[0.145, 0.195]",0.297,12333,"[0.284, 0.31]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,46%,0.01,-0.12 |
| 80,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Random Uniform,0.331,11593,"[0.326, 0.337]",0.332,740,"[0.312, 0.352]",0.331,12333,"[0.321, 0.342]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,42%,-0.024,-0.155 |
| 81,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot),0.426,1269,"[0.413, 0.439]",0.24,118,"[0.194, 0.289]",0.333,1387,"[0.309, 0.358]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,42%,-0.051,-0.148 |
| 82,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Always 1,0.574,11593,"[0.566, 0.582]",0.832,740,"[0.805, 0.855]",0.703,12333,"[0.69, 0.716]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,16%,-0.396,-0.527 |
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