| ---
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| license: other
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| license_name: forma-nc-wrds-1.0
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| license_link: LICENSE.md
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| language:
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| - en
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| tags:
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| - finance
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| - accounting
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| - financial-statement-forecasting
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| - probabilistic-forecasting
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| - benchmark
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| - forma
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| - proforma-20q
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| pretty_name: "ProForma-20Q evaluation artifacts"
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| size_categories:
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| - 100M<n<1B
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| extra_gated_prompt: >-
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| These files are model OUTPUTS and sample-definition indices derived from
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| Compustat via WRDS under The University of Texas at Austin's academic
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| subscription. They are released under the Forma Non-Commercial Research Licence
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| (WRDS-Conditioned) v1.0 — see LICENSE.md. Access requires that you hold your own
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| current Compustat/WRDS licence, use the files for non-commercial academic
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| research only, and do not redistribute them. No raw Compustat values are
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| distributed here; rebuilding the benchmark data requires your own WRDS access,
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| which you need in order to use these artifacts at all.
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| extra_gated_fields:
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| Full name: text
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| Institution: text
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| Institutional email: text
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| I hold a current Compustat/WRDS licence: checkbox
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| I will use these files for non-commercial academic research only: checkbox
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| I will not redistribute these files or firm-level values derived from them: checkbox
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| Intended research use: text
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| extra_gated_auto_approve: true
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| extra_gated_button_content: "Accept licence and download"
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| ---
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|
|
| # ProForma-20Q evaluation artifacts
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|
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| The artifacts needed to reproduce the paper's pooled evaluation without
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| regenerating every model: the scored forecast files in **standardized space**, the
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| sample-coverage mask that defines the common evaluation footprint, and the
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| per-horizon calibration series.
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| This complements — it does not replace — the benchmark package. The pipeline,
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| task definition, evaluation code, and one-command WRDS rebuild live in
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| [`proforma-20q`](https://github.com/forma-lab-mccombs/proforma-20q) (Apache-2.0).
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| > **These forecasts are in the regularized (asinh z-score) target space**, which is
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| > what the evaluator scores. If you want dollars, use
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| > [forma-usd-forecasts](https://huggingface.co/datasets/forma-lab-mccombs/forma-usd-forecasts)
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| > instead — do not try to interpret these values as currency.
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|
|
| ## Contents
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| | file | what | size |
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| |---|---|---|
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| | `forecasts/forma_fgrid__pf_full__test__predictions.parquet` | Forma **Gaussian** 5-seed mixture — the squared-error / point track (Panel A) | 3.98 GB |
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| | `forecasts/ffnn_linear_b50__pf_full__test__predictions.parquet` | **FFNN (linear)** 5-seed mixture — Panel A comparator row | 4.77 GB |
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| | `forecasts/ffnn_large_b50__pf_full__test__predictions.parquet` | **FFNN (large)** 5-seed mixture — Panel A comparator row | 4.78 GB |
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| | `forecasts/forma_lap05_fgrid__pf_full__test__predictions.parquet` | Forma **Laplace** 5-seed mixture — the absolute-error track (Panel B) | 7.99 GB |
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| | `forecasts/forma_lap05_fgrid__pf_full__test__predictions.nll.json` | density-family sidecar for the above — **see the warning below** | <1 KB |
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| | `mask/full_sample_mask_bits.npy` | the 327,244,429-cell Full-sample coverage bitmap (grid-aligned packbits; no firm identifiers) | 69 MB |
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| | `mask/full_sample_grid_rows.parquet` | canonical row index `(grid_row, firm, origin)` the bitmap is a bitmap *over* | 0.9 MB |
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| | `checksums/canonical_column_stats.json` | canonical per-column drift statistics (coverage, mean, sd, p05/p50/p95 per regularized column) — what `proforma20q report-drift` compares against | 1.7 MB |
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| | `calibration/forma_fgrid_calibration/coverage_by_horizon.csv` | Forma Gaussian per-horizon PIT, z², CRPS and 50/80/90/95% interval coverage — the series §5.2 quotes | 3 KB |
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| | `calibration/<model>_calibration/coverage_by_horizon.csv` | the same series for the Laplace, FFNN and Chronos comparators | ~3 KB each |
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| The calibration series ship for **every** model in the figure, including ones whose
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| forecast files are not hosted here: they are results the paper promises (§5.2,
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| "per-horizon series in the release"), and they are kilobytes, not gigabytes. Every
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| model's series sits under its own `<model>_calibration/` directory, the canonical
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| Gaussian one included — it was briefly published at `calibration/coverage_by_horizon.csv`,
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| so update any pin still pointing there. The bytes are unchanged (md5 `a0949f70…`).
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| > ⚠️ **Keep the `.nll.json` sidecar next to its parquet.** The evaluator resolves
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| > the density family from `{stem}.nll.json` and **silently defaults to Gaussian**
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| > when it is absent. A Laplace forecast scored as Gaussian produces plausible,
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| > wrong numbers with no error. If you move or rename the Laplace parquet, move the
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| > sidecar with it.
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|
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| ## Why the mask ships as a bitmap plus a row index
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| The paper's headline numbers are computed on the intersection of every model's
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| finite predictions with the truth — 327.2M cells for the Full sample. Recomputing
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| that intersection requires every model's forecasts, which is a multi-hundred-GB
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| download nobody wants. The bitmap encodes membership directly.
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|
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| `full_sample_grid_rows.parquet` is what makes the bitmap portable. It is the
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| canonical `(grid_row, firm, origin)` index the bits are indexed against, so the
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| mask still applies to a rebuild from a **different Compustat vintage**, matched by
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| `(firm, origin)` value rather than by position. It is 0.9 MB and it cannot be
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| derived from the forecasts — the canonical grid contains rows no model ever
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| forecast. Pass both:
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|
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| ```bash
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| proforma20q evaluate my_forecasts.parquet --sample-mask full_sample_mask_bits.npy \
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| --grid-rows full_sample_grid_rows.parquet
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| ```
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|
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| ## What is deliberately not here
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| - **No Compustat records.** The truth panel is rebuilt from your own WRDS pull with
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| the benchmark package; that is why a WRDS licence is a precondition rather than a
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| formality.
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| - **No dollar values.** See `forma-usd-forecasts`.
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| - **Not every competitor forecast.** The two FFNN mixtures ship here because
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| they are the learned Panel A comparator rows the benchmark's
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| `scripts/download_artifacts.py` pins for direct rescoring. For the remaining
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| competitors — Chronos, chained GBM, naive, ElasticNet, random forest — the
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| paper promises *seeded regeneration scripts*, not outputs; they are
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| regenerated from the Apache-2.0 repositories rather than hosted here.
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| - **No regularization statistics.** Those live once, with the model, in
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| [`forma-lab-mccombs/forma`](https://huggingface.co/forma-lab-mccombs/forma), so
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| there is a single source of truth for the (μ, σ, k) that define the target space.
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|
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| ## Provenance
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|
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| This repository is the canonical and sole distribution point for these files.
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| `proforma-20q`'s `scripts/download_artifacts.py` pins an md5 for every file it
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| fetches and verifies each download against it, so a truncated or substituted
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| transfer fails loudly rather than scoring silently against the wrong bytes.
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|
|
| ## Related
|
|
|
| | | |
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| |---|---|
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| | Benchmark package, builder, evaluation code | [`proforma-20q`](https://github.com/forma-lab-mccombs/proforma-20q) (Apache-2.0) |
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| | Model code, configs, competitor code | [`forma-release`](https://github.com/forma-lab-mccombs/forma-release) (Apache-2.0) |
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| | Trained weights + regularization statistics | [forma-lab-mccombs/forma](https://huggingface.co/forma-lab-mccombs/forma) |
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| | Forecasts in USD ($M) | [forma-lab-mccombs/forma-usd-forecasts](https://huggingface.co/datasets/forma-lab-mccombs/forma-usd-forecasts) |
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|
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| ## Licence
|
|
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| **Forma Non-Commercial Research Licence (WRDS-Conditioned) v1.0** — see
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| `LICENSE.md`. Non-commercial academic research only; you must hold your own
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| current Compustat/WRDS licence; no redistribution; attribution required.
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|
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| **All commercial rights are reserved to The University of Texas at Austin.** For
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| commercial licensing, contact UT Discovery to Impact (`ip@discoveries.utexas.edu`).
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|
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| Derived from Compustat under UT Austin's academic subscription. S&P Global Market
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| Intelligence retains all rights in the underlying data. Nothing here is investment
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| advice.
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|
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| ## Citation
|
|
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| Cite the companion paper; see `CITATION.cff` in
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| [`forma-release`](https://github.com/forma-lab-mccombs/forma-release).
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|
|
