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always |
there 's never been an exception says gerald w. <unk> a chicago investment adviser and money manager based on a review of six decades of stock-market data |
the last time the s&p N yield dropped below N N was in the summer of N |
stockholders who took the hint and sold shares escaped the october debacle |
there have been only seven other times in N N N N N N and N when the yield on the s&p N dropped below N N for at least two consecutive months mr. <unk> found |
and in each case he says a sharp drop in stock prices began within a year |
still some market analysts say the current N N reading is n't as troublesome as it might have been in years past |
it 's not a very meaningful indicator currently because corporations are not <unk> in a traditional manner says james h. <unk> head of stock investments for cigna corp. the <unk> insurer |
in particular mr. <unk> says businesses are paying out a smaller percentage of their profits and cash flow in the form of dividends than they have historically |
so while stock prices may look fairly high relative to dividends they are not excessive relative to the underlying corporate strength |
rather than increasing dividends some companies have used cash to buy back some of their shares notes steven g. einhorn <unk> of the investment policy committee at goldman sachs & co |
he factors that into the market yield to get an adjusted yield of about N N |
that is just a <unk> below the average of the past N years or so he says |
what will happen to dividend growth next year |
common wisdom suggests a <unk> rate of growth reflecting a weakening in the economy and corporate profits |
painewebber inc. for instance is forecasting growth in s&p N dividends of just under N N in N down from an estimated N N this year |
in other years in which there have been moderate economic <unk> the environment the firm expects in N the change in dividends ranged from a gain of N N to a decline of N N according to painewebber analyst thomas <unk> |
the minority argument meanwhile is that businesses have the financial <unk> this time around to declare sharply higher dividends even if their earnings weaken |
dividend growth on the order of N N is expected by both mr. <unk> of cigna and mr. einhorn of goldman sachs |
those dividend bulls argue that corporations are in the unusual position of having plenty of cash left over after paying dividends and making capital expenditures |
one indicator investors might want to watch is the monthly tally from standard & poor 's of the number of public companies adjusting their dividends |
a total of N companies raised dividends in october basically unchanged from N a year ago s&p said wednesday |
that followed four straight months in which the number of increases trailed the year-earlier pace |
while the s&p tally does n't measure the magnitude of dividend changes a further <unk> in the number of dividend increases could be a <unk> of slower dividend growth next year |
in any case opinion is mixed on how much of a boost the overall stock market would get even if dividend growth continues at double-digit levels |
mr. einhorn of goldman sachs estimates the stock market will deliver a N N to N N total return from appreciation and dividends over the next N months vs. a cash rate of return of perhaps N N or N N if dividend growth is weak |
but mr. boesel of t. rowe price who also expects N N growth in dividends next year does n't think it will help the overall market all that much |
having the dividend increases is a supportive element in the market outlook but i do n't think it 's a main consideration he says |
with slower economic growth and flat corporate earnings likely next year i would n't look for the market to have much upside from current levels |
your oct. N page-one story on the renewed plight of western union says that western union had lost its chance to be in the telephone business by turning down alexander graham bell 's offer to it of his <unk> because it supposedly felt that voice communication would never replace the telegraph |
such is hardly the case |
bell 's <unk> <unk> g. hubbard wealthy and <unk> obtained financing to start the american bell telephone co. in boston which even had a subsidiary in new york called the telephone co. of new york |
this is where bell 's patents went |
western union indeed wanted to get into the telephone business |
it acquired thomas edison 's <unk> patent and then immediately sued the bell co. claiming that the <unk> invented by my <unk> <unk> <unk> which had been sold to bell for a <unk> $ N infringed upon western union 's edison patent |
when bell established that the <unk> patent <unk> was registered N days before edison 's application western union dropped the lawsuit and agreed never to enter the telephone business the basis for the company 's current plight |
oliver <unk> beverly hills calif |
troubled nbi inc. said it fired more than half its work force and is <unk> its hardware business to focus on its software and service operations |
the ailing company which has reported net losses for N consecutive quarters said it wo n't manufacture network computer systems any more and will greatly reduce its costly direct sales force |
altogether nbi said it will eliminate N jobs at its <unk> headquarters N field sales jobs and N jobs at its canadian and united kingdom headquarters |
the company 's work force will fall to about N people |
stephen g. <unk> president and chief executive officer said customers were n't willing to commit to an expensive nbi hardware systems because of the company 's financial troubles |
further he said the company does n't have the capital needed to build the business over the next year or two |
we flat ran out of financing resources mr. <unk> said |
we had to do something <unk> and <unk> different |
as a result he said nbi will focus on <unk> its installed base of systems trying to provide maintenance for other manufacturers and expanding its software business using some of the applications it developed for its hardware |
the company currently offers a <unk> package for personal computers called <unk> |
the company which recently said it lacked the profits and capital to pay dividends on its series a convertible preferred stock said it has hired an investment banker to help it raise additional cash |
in new york stock exchange composite trading yesterday nbi common closed at N cents a share up N cents |
it was richard nixon 's first visit to china in N that set in motion the historic <unk> between beijing and washington |
but the former u.s. president 's sixth visit to china during which he spoke at length with chinese leaders was nowhere near as successful at easing <unk> that have recently <unk> the <unk> relationship |
mr. nixon the most prominent american to come to china since beijing 's bloody <unk> of pro-democracy demonstrators in june <unk> on international <unk> over the massacre |
the chinese in turn took aim at american <unk> in china 's domestic affairs |
one official newspaper legal daily even directly criticized mr. nixon who is normally referred to here as an old friend |
the paper accused him of being a leading <unk> of peaceful evolution a catch phrase to describe what china believes is the policy of western countries to <unk> socialist nations into the capitalist <unk> |
the tension was evident on wednesday evening during mr. nixon 's final <unk> <unk> normally an opportunity for <unk> <unk> about <unk> friendship |
instead mr. nixon reminded his host chinese president <unk> <unk> that americans have n't <unk> china 's leaders for the military assault of june N that killed hundreds and perhaps thousands of demonstrators |
many in the united states including many friends of china believe the crackdown was excessive and <unk> mr. nixon told mr. <unk> who was directly involved in ordering the attack |
the events of april through june damaged the respect and confidence which most americans previously had for the leaders of china |
the chinese responded in an equally <unk> fashion |
in talks with mr. nixon chinese leaders expressed no regret for the killings and even suggested that the u.s. was <unk> involved in the demonstrations this spring |
in a meeting tuesday supreme leader deng <unk> told mr. nixon frankly speaking the u.s. was involved too deeply in the turmoil and <unk> <unk> which occurred in beijing not long ago |
china was the real victim and it is <unk> to <unk> china for it |
despite the harsh exchanges the u.s. and china still seem to be looking for a way to <unk> relations which have deteriorated into what mr. nixon referred to as the greatest crisis in <unk> relations since his initial visit to china N years ago |
in his return <unk> to mr. nixon mr. <unk> said the relationship had reached a <unk> |
relations between china and the u.s. have been <unk> since june N when chinese dissident <unk> <unk> and his wife <unk> <unk> took refuge in the u.s. embassy in beijing |
shortly <unk> mr. bush imposed a series of <unk> sanctions including suspension of most <unk> talks which could be <unk> in u.s. congressional legislation in the coming weeks |
mr. nixon is traveling in china as a private citizen but he has made clear that he is an <unk> <unk> for the bush administration |
mr. nixon met mr. bush and his national security adviser <unk> scowcroft before coming to china on saturday |
and he plans to brief the president at the end of the week u.s. sources said |
mr. nixon was to leave china today |
according to an american member of the nixon party the former president raised a number of controversial issues in his N hours of talks with <unk> chinese officials |
these included china 's economic policies human rights and the question of mr. <unk> |
mr. nixon also proposed that china restore its participation in the <unk> program a u.s. <unk> academic exchange |
china pulled out of the program in july |
in his talks the former president urged china 's leaders to acknowledge that their nation is part of the world community and welcome the <unk> of outside contacts and ideas |
ideas are going over borders and there 's no sdi ideological weapon that can shoot them down he told a group of americans at the u.s. embassy on wednesday |
there are no signs however of china 's yielding on key issues |
but in one minor matter mr. nixon appears to have gained a <unk> |
in a meeting with premier <unk> <unk> on monday mr. nixon said that he hoped he would n't <unk> guards with machine guns during his visit to the u.s. embassy |
sure enough when he arrived at the embassy two days later the <unk> guards were gone for the first time in five months |
a few blocks away at the u.s. ambassador 's residence the guards <unk> the compound also had discarded their <unk> arms for the first time since early june |
but the guards there retained their <unk> and a large contingent of <unk> police remained nearby in <unk> cars |
moreover police and soldiers continue to <unk> americans who have filed several protests with the foreign ministry in the past week |
several times chinese guards have pointed their automatic <unk> at young children of u.s. diplomats and <unk> the trigger |
the <unk> were n't loaded |
your oct. N article japan 's financial firms lure science graduates states industrial companies are <unk> financial institutions of <unk> japan 's economy by raising the salary stakes for new employees |
the japanese industrial companies should know better |
they are <unk> up the wrong tree because it is basically their fault they ca n't attract new employees |
<unk> <unk> president of fujitsu ltd. believes the money <unk> among young people caused the problem |
he is just passing the buck to young people |
what 's wrong with asking for more money |
money is not everything but it is necessary and business is not volunteer work |
it is not <unk> to choose a <unk> job |
unfortunately japanese manufacturers have neither good working conditions nor good compensation packages |
i get the impression that some japanese managers believe working harder for less money is beautiful |
i visited a lot of major japanese manufacturers but i never felt i would want to be employed by any of them |
many of them recently have been spending a lot of money on public relations and advertising to improve their images but they should realize that the most important thing is real change not changing people 's perceptions |
if the japanese companies are seriously considering their survival they could do at least three things to improve the situation raise salaries higher than those of financial institutions improve working conditions better offices and more <unk> for example accept and hire more labor from outside japan |
<unk> <unk> |
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