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ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-08/wall-street-is-missing-the-risk-to-stocks-if-inflation-is-beaten\n\nInvestors are primed for any bit of good news to help them forget a brutal quarter for stocks that took this year’s value destruction to $24 trillion. A resilient corporate earnings season might give them that.\n\nThe MSCI All-Country World Index just wrapped up its third straight quarter of declines, the first time that’s happened since the global financial crisis in 2008.\n\nThe 7% drop came as investors grappled with persistently high inflation, a surging dollar and jumbo interest-rate hikes across the world that threaten to choke economic growth. Alongside that, analysts have slashed profit estimates, and a chorus of US and European companies -- including car giant Ford Motor Co. -- has issued early warnings about third-quarter results. \nBut one view is that this could set firms a lower bar to clear, and fuel a much-needed recovery in stocks that are currently at levels last seen nearly two years ago.\n\nCan Stocks Avoid a Rare Fourth-Quarter Loss?\n\nStocks have posted 4Q declines only three times in the past 20 years.\n“Investors have to ask themselves how much of the bad news has already been priced in,” said Ron Saba, senior portfolio manager at Horizon Investments LLC. “Given extreme pessimism combined with reasonable valuations, the fourth quarter could give investors an opportunity to claw back some of their losses.”\n\nHistory is an imperfect guide, but past stock performance bodes well for the quarter. The S&P 500 gained an average 4.1% in the final quarter during the past 20 years, while the MSCI has posted a fourth-quarter decline only three times over that period.\n\nThat’s not to say companies will get through the season with glowing report cards. There’s still plenty of hurdles that could cement 2022’s reputation as a year to forget.\n\nFor one, the era of higher costs is making it difficult to defend profitability. Firms also face tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and others as central banks keep a laser focus on taming inflation. On top of that, there’s the war in Ukraine, a severe energy crisis in Europe, and economically damaging Covid restrictions in China.\n\nDollar Effect\n\nUS companies with a large international exposure are at risk from a stronger dollar, as underscored by Nike Inc.’s disappointing earnings report on Thursday. \nEuropean and UK importers, on the other hand, are dealing with much weaker currencies. UK conglomerate Associated British Foods Plc and Swedish fashion retailer Hennes & Mauritz AB both blamed the greenback for a bleaker profit outlook.\nBut the scale of recent analyst downgrades, as well as the market reaction to the early announcers, suggest that “some disappointments are already expected and possibly even priced in to some extent,” said Esty Dwek, chief investment officer at Flowbank SA.\n\nFedEx Corp.’s withdrawal of its full-year guidance last month sparked the biggest selloff in its shares in more than four decades. Used-car dealer CarMax Inc. sank 25% after a glum quarterly report.\nA Citigroup Inc. index shows US earnings downgrades have consistently outnumbered upgrades since early June, while global 12-month forward earnings have been revised down every month in the last quarter. Both the S&P 500 and Stoxx 600 are in bear markets -- defined as a drop of 20% or more from recent highs.\n\nGlobal stocks' forward earnings have been cut through the third quarter\n\nThe big question in the lead-up to the next earnings season is whether this will be enough. Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and BlackRock Inc. have warned that estimates are still too high and that “we’re going to see pretty substantial reductions for 2023.”\nYet, others see reason to believe earnings can hold up for a while longer. \n\n“Just looking at the resilience of the US economy, there’s little to suggest that earnings would be struggling at this stage,” said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. “We’re looking out for the guidance, mentions of margin concerns, wage costs, etc. but we wouldn’t expect that to show through at least until about the first quarter of next year.”\n\nBloomberg Intelligence analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to have risen 2.9% in the quarter, helped mainly by the energy sector. Gina Martin Adams, BI chief equity strategist, said the absence of “economic excesses” -- such as the indebtedness seen before the 2008 recession -- could insulate US demand from a severe decline.\nEnergy Boost\n\nAnd while European importers are smarting from a weaker euro, exporters are benefiting. French pharmaceutical giant Sanofi said it expects a positive currency impact of about 10% in the quarter.\n“Health care is the best sector in Europe when the dollar is rising,” said Manish Kabra, head of US equity strategy at Societe Generale SA. “A very simple trade but it always works.”\n\nEven Morgan Stanley’s Michael J. Wilson -- a stalwart equity bear -- said US stocks are in the “final stages” of a bear market and could stage a rally near term. True to form, however, he expects the selloff to resume thereafter.\nThe decidedly negative investor mood could also prove to be a contrarian indicator of a short-term bounce for stocks. \n\nSanford C. Bernstein strategists say their custom sentiment gauge has triggered a buy signal, meaning a “bear market rally is very possible.”\nUS and European stocks both fell into oversold territory last month\nSome technical levels suggest markets are lining up for a recovery into the end of the year. The relative strength indexes for the S&P 500 and the Stoxx 600 are at “oversold” levels. That’s marked a short-term bottom in the past. \n“We have historically terrible sentiment, stocks are looking notably cheap, the VIX is spiking and the market is being indiscriminately sold,” said Sylvia Jablonski, chief investment officer at Defiance ETFs. Combined with seasonal tailwinds, all those factors “could lead to a year-end rally,” she said."

ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/27/fed-decision-july-2022-.html\n\nThe Federal Reserve on Wednesday enacted its second consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increase as it seeks to tamp down runaway inflation without creating a recession.\n\nIn taking the benchmark overnight borrowing rate up to a range of 2.25%-2.5%, the moves in June and July represent the most stringent consecutive moves since the Fed began using the overnight funds rate as the principal tool of monetary policy in the early 1990s.\n\nWhile the fed funds rate most directly impacts what banks charge each other for short-term loans, it feeds into a multitude of consumer products such as adjustable mortgages, auto loans and credit cards. The increase takes the funds rate to its highest level since December 2018.\n\nMarkets largely expected the move after Fed officials telegraphed the increase in a series of statements since the June meeting. Central bankers have emphasized the importance of bringing down inflation even if it means slowing the economy.\n\nIn its post-meeting statement, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee cautioned that “recent indicators of spending and production have softened.”\n\n“Nonetheless, job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low,” the committee added, using language similar to the June statement. Officials against described inflation as “elevated” and ascribed the situation to supply chain issues and higher prices for food and energy along with “broader price pressures.“\n\nThe rate hike was approved unanimously. In June, Kansas City Fed President Esther George dissented, advocating a slower course with a half percentage point increase.\n\nThe increases come in a year that began with rates floating around zero but which has seen a commonly cited inflation measure run at 9.1% annually. The Fed aims for inflation around 2%, though it adjusted that goal in 2020 to allow it to run a bit hotter in the interest of full and inclusive employment.\n\nIn June, the unemployment rate held at 3.6%, close to full employment. But inflation, even by the Fed’s standard of core personal consumption expenditures, which was at 4.7% in May, is well off target.\n\nThe efforts to bring down inflation are not without risks.\n\nThe U.S. economy is teetering on a recession as inflation slows consumer purchases and dents business activity.\n\nFirst-quarter GDP declined by 1.6% annualized, and markets were bracing for a reading on the second quarter to be released Thursday that could show consecutive declines, a widely used barometer for a recession. The Dow Jones estimate for Thursday’s reading is 0.3%.\n\nAlong with rate increases, the Fed is reducing the size of asset holdings on its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet. Beginning, in June, the Fed began allowing some of the proceeds from maturing bonds to roll off.\n\nThe balance sheet has declined just $16 billion since the beginning of the roll-off, though the Fed set a cap of up to $47.5 billion that potentially could have been wound down. The cap will rise through the summer, eventually hitting $95 billion a month by September. The process is known in markets as “quantitative tightening” and is another mechanism the Fed uses to impact financial conditions.\n\nAlong with the accelerated balance sheet runoff, markets expect the Fed to raise rates at least another half percentage point in September. Traders Wednesday afternoon were assigning about a 53% chance the central bank would go even further, with a third straight 0.75 percentage point, or 75 basis points, increase in September, according to CME Group data.\n\nThe FOMC does not meet in August, instead gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming for its annual retreat.\n\nMarkets expect the Fed to start cutting rates by next summer, even though committee projections released in June show now cuts until at least 2024.\n\nMultiple officials have said they expect to hike aggressively through September then assess what impact the moves were having on inflation. Despite the 1.5 percentage point increases between March and June, the June consumer price index reading was the highest since November 1981, with the rent index at its highest level since April 1986 and dental care costs hitting a record in a data series going back to 1995.\n\nThe central bank has faced critics, both for being too slow to tighten when inflation first started to accelerate in 2021, and for possibly going too far and causing a more severe economic downturn.\n\nSen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) told CNBC on Wednesday that she worried the Fed hikes would pose economic danger to those at the lowest end of the economic spectrum by raising unemployment."

ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.barrons.com/articles/ark-etf-funds-performance-51641424042\n\nThe new year didn’t bring a fresh start for Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest, a fund company known for its focus on innovation stocks and high price targets.\n\nThe firm’s flagship ARK Innovation exchange-traded fund (ticker: ARKK) plunged 7.1% in Wednesday trading, marking its worst day since Sept 3, 2020. All of ARK’s other ETFs, including the latest, ARK Transparency (CTRU)—launched in December—are also deep in negative territory. \n\nGrowth stocks fell on Wednesday after the latest minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting were released, suggesting that the central bank’s rate increases might be earlier and faster than market has expected. \n\nInvestors were spooked as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell shifted his tone to emphasize the risks of inflation—after months of describing rising prices as “transitory”—as a new Covid-19 variant is rampaging across the country and causing supply-chain disruptions.\n\nThe S&P 500 lost 2% in the last two hours of Wednesday’s trading, growth stocks within the index tumbled 3%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.3%. \n\nBut the ARK ETFs were some of the worst-performing funds amid Wednesday’s decline. Besides ARK Innovation, ARK Genomic Revolution (ARKG) was down 7.1%, ARK Fintech Innovation (ARKF) dropped 6.6%, and ARK Next Generation Internet (ARKW) fell 6.2%. Other groups of growth stocks, such as blockchain, cannabis, clean energy, and technology, were also deep in the red. \n\nWednesday’s loss was just the latest stretch of ARK funds’ year-long struggle. ARK ETFs were some of the best-performing funds in 2020, soaring an average of 150% as the pandemic accelerated the adoption of many emerging platforms and technologies that companies in its portfolios own.\n\nSince peaking in February 2021, however, the funds have been tumbling downhill, shedding much of their gains from the year before. Rising inflation has made the future cash flow of growth-oriented innovation firms less valuable today, and investors were seeking returns from safer corners, such as cheaply traded cyclical stocks.\n\nWith the Fed’s hawkish pivot, it looks like the volatility in growth stocks and ARK funds will continue. But if inflation can be somewhat contained following the Fed’s tightening policy in 2022, innovation stocks might embrace some rebound—though that won’t be anytime soon."