Datasets:

---

idleengine

/

reddit_finance_posts_sp500

like 0

Follow

idleengine 1

ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-08/wall-street-is-missing-the-risk-to-stocks-if-inflation-is-beaten\n\nInvestors are primed for any bit of good news to help them forget a brutal quarter for stocks that took this year’s value destruction to $24 trillion. A resilient corporate earnings season might give them that.\n\nThe MSCI All-Country World Index just wrapped up its third straight quarter of declines, the first time that’s happened since the global financial crisis in 2008.\n\nThe 7% drop came as investors grappled with persistently high inflation, a surging dollar and jumbo interest-rate hikes across the world that threaten to choke economic growth. Alongside that, analysts have slashed profit estimates, and a chorus of US and European companies -- including car giant Ford Motor Co. -- has issued early warnings about third-quarter results. \nBut one view is that this could set firms a lower bar to clear, and fuel a much-needed recovery in stocks that are currently at levels last seen nearly two years ago.\n\nCan Stocks Avoid a Rare Fourth-Quarter Loss?\n\nStocks have posted 4Q declines only three times in the past 20 years.\n“Investors have to ask themselves how much of the bad news has already been priced in,” said Ron Saba, senior portfolio manager at Horizon Investments LLC. “Given extreme pessimism combined with reasonable valuations, the fourth quarter could give investors an opportunity to claw back some of their losses.”\n\nHistory is an imperfect guide, but past stock performance bodes well for the quarter. The S&P 500 gained an average 4.1% in the final quarter during the past 20 years, while the MSCI has posted a fourth-quarter decline only three times over that period.\n\nThat’s not to say companies will get through the season with glowing report cards. There’s still plenty of hurdles that could cement 2022’s reputation as a year to forget.\n\nFor one, the era of higher costs is making it difficult to defend profitability. Firms also face tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and others as central banks keep a laser focus on taming inflation. On top of that, there’s the war in Ukraine, a severe energy crisis in Europe, and economically damaging Covid restrictions in China.\n\nDollar Effect\n\nUS companies with a large international exposure are at risk from a stronger dollar, as underscored by Nike Inc.’s disappointing earnings report on Thursday. \nEuropean and UK importers, on the other hand, are dealing with much weaker currencies. UK conglomerate Associated British Foods Plc and Swedish fashion retailer Hennes & Mauritz AB both blamed the greenback for a bleaker profit outlook.\nBut the scale of recent analyst downgrades, as well as the market reaction to the early announcers, suggest that “some disappointments are already expected and possibly even priced in to some extent,” said Esty Dwek, chief investment officer at Flowbank SA.\n\nFedEx Corp.’s withdrawal of its full-year guidance last month sparked the biggest selloff in its shares in more than four decades. Used-car dealer CarMax Inc. sank 25% after a glum quarterly report.\nA Citigroup Inc. index shows US earnings downgrades have consistently outnumbered upgrades since early June, while global 12-month forward earnings have been revised down every month in the last quarter. Both the S&P 500 and Stoxx 600 are in bear markets -- defined as a drop of 20% or more from recent highs.\n\nGlobal stocks' forward earnings have been cut through the third quarter\n\nThe big question in the lead-up to the next earnings season is whether this will be enough. Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and BlackRock Inc. have warned that estimates are still too high and that “we’re going to see pretty substantial reductions for 2023.”\nYet, others see reason to believe earnings can hold up for a while longer. \n\n“Just looking at the resilience of the US economy, there’s little to suggest that earnings would be struggling at this stage,” said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. “We’re looking out for the guidance, mentions of margin concerns, wage costs, etc. but we wouldn’t expect that to show through at least until about the first quarter of next year.”\n\nBloomberg Intelligence analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to have risen 2.9% in the quarter, helped mainly by the energy sector. Gina Martin Adams, BI chief equity strategist, said the absence of “economic excesses” -- such as the indebtedness seen before the 2008 recession -- could insulate US demand from a severe decline.\nEnergy Boost\n\nAnd while European importers are smarting from a weaker euro, exporters are benefiting. French pharmaceutical giant Sanofi said it expects a positive currency impact of about 10% in the quarter.\n“Health care is the best sector in Europe when the dollar is rising,” said Manish Kabra, head of US equity strategy at Societe Generale SA. “A very simple trade but it always works.”\n\nEven Morgan Stanley’s Michael J. Wilson -- a stalwart equity bear -- said US stocks are in the “final stages” of a bear market and could stage a rally near term. True to form, however, he expects the selloff to resume thereafter.\nThe decidedly negative investor mood could also prove to be a contrarian indicator of a short-term bounce for stocks. \n\nSanford C. Bernstein strategists say their custom sentiment gauge has triggered a buy signal, meaning a “bear market rally is very possible.”\nUS and European stocks both fell into oversold territory last month\nSome technical levels suggest markets are lining up for a recovery into the end of the year. The relative strength indexes for the S&P 500 and the Stoxx 600 are at “oversold” levels. That’s marked a short-term bottom in the past. \n“We have historically terrible sentiment, stocks are looking notably cheap, the VIX is spiking and the market is being indiscriminately sold,” said Sylvia Jablonski, chief investment officer at Defiance ETFs. Combined with seasonal tailwinds, all those factors “could lead to a year-end rally,” she said."

ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.yardeni.com/pub/yriearningsforecast.pdf\n\nhttps://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/additional-material/sp-500-eps-est.xlsx\n\n||Yardeni|Research|Analysts'|Consensus|\n:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|\n||Level|YOY %|Level|YOY %|\n|2019|162.97 a|0.6|162.97 a|0.6|\n|Q1|39.15 a|2.8|39.15 a|2.8|\n|Q2|41.31 a|0.8|41.31 a|0.8|\n|Q3|42.14 a|-1.2|42.14 a|-1.2|\n|Q4|42.00 a|2.0|41.99 a|2.0|\n|2020|139.76 a|-14.2|139.76 a|-14.2|\n|Q1|33.13 a|-15.4|33.13 a|-15.4|\n|Q2|27.98 a|-32.3|27.98 a|-32.3|\n|Q3|38.69 a|-8.2|38.69 a|-8.2|\n|Q4|42.60 a|1.4|42.60 a|1.5|\n|2021|208.53 a|49.2|208.53 a|49.2|\n|Q1|49.13 a|48.3|49.13 a|48.3|\n|Q2|52.75 a|88.5|52.75 a|88.5|\n|Q3|53.89 a|39.3|53.89 a|39.3|\n|Q4|54.05 a|26.9|54.05 a|26.9|\n|2022|225.00 e|7.9|229.22 e|9.9|\n|Q1|54.82 e|11.6|54.82 e|11.6|\n|Q2|56.00 e|6.2|55.45 e|5.1|\n|Q3|57.00 e|5.8|59.63 e|10.7|\n|Q4|57.00 e|5.5|61.08 e|13.0|\n|2023|240.00 e|6.7|251.50 e|9.7|\n\nI'm not sure exactly what number to cherrypick from what report to get the conversation started here.\n\nObviously, most of us are not professional analysts, so we are pretty far from \"the best person for the job\" when it comes to giving an educated opinion on such a robust economic topic.\n\n2021 earnings: 208.49\n\n2022 earnings estimate: 225\n\n2023 earnings estimate: 240\n\nWhy are S&P earnings estimated to grow 8% from 2021 -> 2022, and 6.66% 2022 -> 2023? If markets are forward looking... why does it feel like there's still a bit of wiggle room for future earnings estimates to be adjusted downwards? Why are markets being optimistic instead of pessimistic?\n\nI pulled up the top 100 companies of the S&P by earnings TTM (not EPS, EPS * # shares outstanding). Top 100 companies make up 65% of the market cap and 73% of the earnings for the S&P500\n\n|Name|\n:--|\n|Apple Inc.|\n|Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B|\n|Alphabet Inc. Class C|\n|Alphabet Inc. Class A|\n|Microsoft Corporation|\n|JPMorgan Chase & Co.|\n|Meta Platforms Inc. Class A|\n|Bank of America Corp|\n|Exxon Mobil Corporation|\n|Pfizer Inc.|\n|Intel Corporation|\n|Verizon Communications Inc.|\n|Amazon.com Inc.|\n|Chevron Corporation|\n|Johnson & Johnson|\n|Wells Fargo & Company|\n|Goldman Sachs Group Inc.|\n|UnitedHealth Group Incorporated|\n|AT&T Inc.|\n|Citigroup Inc.|\n|Home Depot Inc.|\n|Moderna Inc.|\n|Procter & Gamble Company|\n|Merck & Co. Inc.|\n|Comcast Corporation Class A|\n|Morgan Stanley|\n|Visa Inc. Class A|\n|Walmart Inc.|\n|ConocoPhillips|\n|AbbVie Inc.|\n|Cisco Systems Inc.|\n|Ford Motor Company|\n|Qualcomm Incorporated|\n|United Parcel Service Inc. Class B|\n|Coca-Cola Company|\n|PepsiCo Inc.|\n|Capital One Financial Corp|\n|NVIDIA Corporation|\n|Mastercard Incorporated Class A|\n|American International Group Inc.|\n|Micron Technology Inc.|\n|Philip Morris International Inc.|\n|General Motors Company|\n|Tesla Inc|\n|Broadcom Inc.|\n|Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.|\n|Texas Instruments Incorporated|\n|Chubb Limited|\n|CVS Health Corporation|\n|Lowe's Companies Inc.|\n|Abbott Laboratories|\n|Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.|\n|American Express Company|\n|Nucor Corporation|\n|McDonald's Corporation|\n|Accenture Plc Class A|\n|U.S. Bancorp|\n|Dow Inc.|\n|Oracle Corporation|\n|Union Pacific Corporation|\n|Applied Materials Inc.|\n|Occidental Petroleum Corporation|\n|Eli Lilly and Company|\n|Caterpillar Inc.|\n|Danaher Corporation|\n|HCA Healthcare Inc|\n|MetLife Inc.|\n|Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc|\n|BlackRock Inc.|\n|Bristol-Myers Squibb Company|\n|Lockheed Martin Corporation|\n|NIKE Inc. Class B|\n|Truist Financial Corporation|\n|Deere & Company|\n|HP Inc.|\n|LyondellBasell Industries NV|\n|Target Corporation|\n|Northrop Grumman Corp.|\n|Costco Wholesale Corporation|\n|International Business Machines Corporation|\n|3M Company|\n|Amgen Inc.|\n|Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. Series A|\n|Honeywell International Inc.|\n|Cigna Corporation|\n|Charles Schwab Corp|\n|Freeport-McMoRan Inc.|\n|Netflix Inc.|\n|Medtronic Plc|\n|D.R. Horton Inc.|\n|PNC Financial Services Group Inc.|\n|Adobe Incorporated|\n|S&P Global Inc.|\n|Charter Communications Inc. Class A|\n|Discover Financial Services|\n|FedEx Corporation|\n|Prudential Financial Inc.|\n|Gilead Sciences Inc.|\n|Lam Research Corporation​|\n\nGo through the list yourself and just ask yourself \"what's the growth case for this company if the country is in a very mild recession and consumers have less free cash to spend on goods/services due to increased living expenses like gas + energy + housing + food due to inflation and the federal reserve is making debt for financing growth slightly more expensive have previously\"\n\nThen ask yourself... why is 8% growth for this financial year priced in then? If you disagree that those 100 companies (or the bottom 400) could grow 8%... doesn't that mean we have more room to fall from S&P500 3800 -> some other number?"

ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.wsj.com/articles/koch-industries-built-on-oil-bets-big-on-u-s-batteries-11647946147?mod=hp_lead_pos7\n\nKoch Industries Inc., the energy-based conglomerate whose CEO long opposed environmental regulation and funded groups that questioned climate change, has emerged as one of the biggest financial backers of the battery industry.\n\nA Koch Industries unit has made at least 10 investments worth at least $750 million in the U.S. battery supply chain and electric vehicles in the past 18 months, regulatory filings, news releases and FactSet data show. Koch’s battery investments are among the biggest from outside the auto industry, analysts say.\n\nFounded more than 80 years ago as an oil refiner, Koch Industries is now the most diversified U.S. battery investor, said Vivas Kumar, a former Tesla Inc. senior manager and industry analyst who last year launched a battery-parts startup. “It’s stunning just how many different battery supply chain players they’ve taken a stake in,” he said.\n\nKoch Industries is now a top shareholder in startups such as Freyr Battery SA, FREY 4.41% Aspen Aerogels Inc. ASPN 7.29% and Standard Lithium Ltd. SLI 5.61% The money comes at a crucial time for many of these companies, which need to spend heavily to commercialize their products. Koch appears to be focused on building up the battery industry in the U.S.\n\nKoch Industries operates thousands of miles of pipelines that move oil and gas around the country and several large refineries. The company posts annual sales of about $120 billion through brands such as Brawny paper towels and Dixie cups, fertilizers and fabrics."