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0 | That ex post relationship, the correlation between actual--instead of intended--domestic saving and domestic investment was the object of the seminal work by Feldstein and Horioka a quarter century ago.4 Without the evident worldwide fall in home bias over the past decade, noted earlier, the United States would not have been able to finance its recent current account deficits, and, accordingly, these deficits would have been smaller. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Because current inflation is affected by inflation expectations, the smaller increase in expected inflation will lead to a smaller increase in actual inflation as well. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | They also agreed that the war and related events were creating additional upward pressure on inflation and were weighing on global economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Despite the substantial monetary easing that had been implemented already and the fiscal stimulus, including federal tax rebates, that was in train, the forecast anticipated that sluggish hiring and the decline in household wealth would restrain the growth of both consumer spending and housing demand. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | As a policymaker, I can assure you that any model of inflation that did not take account of these effects, and how they might or might not affect ongoing rates of inflation, would have been of little practical use to the FOMC over the past few years. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | These rates of growth were associated with ranges for the civilian rate of unemployment of 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2004 and 5 to 5-1/2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2005. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Between the end of July and the FOMC's September meeting, we will get two employment and CPI reports with data for July and August. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Central banks have adopted price stability as a key long-term objective, and they have become more transparent and systematic in their operations. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Available information suggested that economic activity in the major foreign industrial countries continued to advance, but at an uneven pace; in Germany, activity rebounded from the contraction in the first quarter, while in Japan a considerable slowing of growth had occurred in the second quarter after very rapid expansion in the first quarter. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Consumer spending firmed somewhat during the first quarter despite the rising unemployment rate and significant financial strains. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Members agreed that the statement should continue to convey that inflation risks remained of greatest concern and that additional policy firming was possible. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Measures of inflation compensation were little changed on net. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | But many other commodity prices have fallen further, and the reason I would give for that is that the emerging markets—China, the rest of Asia, and some other parts of the world—plus Europe, of course, are softer, and so global commodity demand is weaker. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The Outlook for Economic ActivityThe midpoint of the range of projections for real GDP growth declines noticeably from about 2-1/2 percent for 2007 to roughly 2 percent in 2008; then it returns to about 2-1/2 percent in 2009 and 2010. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | We are hopeful that Europe will take additional measures and do all that’s necessary to stabilize the situation and to provide the basis for an ongoing stable structure that—in which banks and sovereigns are both stabilized, in which there’s a program for growth, and in which fiscal arrangements are clear—are made much clearer. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Scholars disagree somewhat about the extent to which policymakers of the time tried actively to take advantage of this supposed tradeoff, but these ideas likely provided part of the intellectual rationale that made the authorities willing to allow inflation to rise throughout the 1960s and in the early 1970s. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Although higher energy and other costs had the potential to add to inflation pressure, core inflation had been relatively low in the preceding few months and longer-term inflation expectations remained contained. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Reserve market conditions associated with this directive had been expected to be consistent with some moderation in the growth of M2 and M3 over coming months. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Strong fundamentals, including low interest rates, wide profit margins, and a high level of liquid assets, were seen as supporting expenditures on software and equipment going forward. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Even before the recent unfortunate developments in the Middle East, demand to augment buffer stocks surged, which has helped to keep prices high. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Indeed, some expressed the concern that, with the persistence of considerable resource slack, inflation might run below mandate-consistent levels for some time. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Long-term unemployment in the current economy is—is the worst—really the worst it’s been in the postwar period. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | however, for the two months combined, the deficit was considerably wider than its average rate for the second quarter. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The first question is whether the degree of easing implemented in response to financial market turbulence and the abrupt downward revision in the forecast should be reassessed in light of the subsequent improvement in financial conditions and the continued robustness of domestic demand. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | From the end of 2000 to the end of 2003, productivity rose at a 3-1/2 percent annual rate and, even after recent downward revisions to the data, it is estimated to have increased at an average annual rate of 2-1/4 percent since the end of 2003. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Job gains had been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate had remained low. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | When considering the risks to the labor market, these risks must be viewed in the context of its current strength and with the understanding that our primary challenge is to get inflation under control. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Our Congressional mandate is to achieve full employment and price stability in the United States. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The second point that I made was that when short-term interest rates hit zero, the tools of a central bank are no longer—are not exhausted, there are still other things that the central bank can do to create additional accommodation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the SOMA in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: "Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster maximum employment and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | It is precisely because none of these preconditions hold that monetary policy is so difficult and principles are needed to guide its implementation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In contrast, in cases in which variations in the demand for reserves or in external factors affecting reserve supply appear likely to be temporary, the Desk typically prefers to conduct open-market operations through short-term or long-term repurchase agreements, known as repos. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | To quantify the importance of the shift in the balance of demand and supply and of the consequent change in the term premium, we can appeal to the research literature on the term structure of interest rates. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In contrast, CRE loan growth at banks was weak in July and August, likely partly driven by the recovery of CMBS markets. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | This effort culminated in 1943 with the publication of Banking and Monetary Statistics, which included annual figures on demand and time deposits from 1892 and on currency from 1860. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Broad stock price indexes rose, on net, over the intermeeting period, boosted in part by favorable earnings reports from the retail sector. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Tax rebates, declining energy prices, and widespread discounting of retail prices were cited as positive factors in support of consumer spending on a wide range of goods and services. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Participants thought that consumer expenditures likely would expand at a moderate pace in coming quarters, supported by solid gains in employment and real income. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | But there’s also a role for monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Moreover, measures of labor compensation showed only moderate gains while relatively wide profit margins could allow firms to absorb somewhat larger increases in labor and other costs without boosting prices. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Household mortgage debt was expected to expand at a reduced rate in the fourth quarter, reflecting softer home prices and declining home sales, as well as a tightening in credit conditions for some borrowers. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Looking ahead, however, members reiterated earlier concerns that aggregate demand could continue to grow faster than potential aggregate supply, even under optimistic assumptions regarding future productivity gains. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In addition, U.S. inflation remains muted. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | That transition itself could help bring inflation down, because, presumably, people would spend a little less on goods while they start spending more on travel and all sorts of travel services and things like that. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In considering the effectiveness of the operating regime, the staff observed that over recent years, the Federal Reserve had been able to implement monetary policy in an environment with ample reserves by adjusting administered rates--including the rates on required and excess reserve balances and the offered rate at the overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility--without needing to actively manage the supply of reserves. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Construction employment posted another large increase, probably owing in part to hurricane-related activity. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The “extended period” language is conditioned on exactly those same points: “Extended period” is conditioned on resource slack, on subdued inflation, and on stable inflation expectations. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The growth of subprime mortgage lending is one indication of the extent to which access to credit has increased for all households, including those with lower incomes. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | several others thought that progress in achieving the Committee's inflation objective might lag if further appreciation of the dollar continued to depress non-energy commodity prices or if inflation was slow to respond to tighter resource utilization. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | "4 Importantly, the level of uncertainty around the paths for inflation and employment are higher than normal as we navigate the unprecedented reopening of the world economy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | There are also asymmetric price effects from cost shocks—prices go up very quickly but often tend to come down more slowly, as consumers slowly learn that the bottlenecks have gone away. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | One prominent example is the work in behavioral finance on how alternative assumptions regarding rationality can affect predictions for asset prices and saving behavior; another is the growing literature on the interaction of learning, inflation dynamics, and monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | It is again useful to compare estimates of expected inflation derived from breakeven inflation data with estimates of expected inflation obtained from surveys—for example, the expected inflation over the next 5 to 10 years from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Consumer price inflation had remained relatively subdued over the summer months. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Nonetheless, participants viewed the housing situation and its potential further effect on employment, income, and wealth as one of the major sources of downside risk to the economic outlook. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In the past, a reasonable goal might have been to maintain a zero deficit in our on-budget accounts--those accounts that exclude the Social Security and Medicare surplus--and to begin a serious discussion of reforms to Social Security and Medicare to bring them closer into actuarial balance. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | As a monetary policy maker, I am interested in these links because the prices of financial assets affect the spending decisions of firms and households and because these prices may reveal forward-looking information relevant for setting policy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The external sector was projected to continue to support domestic economic activity throughout the forecast period. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | We have a three-part baseline projection, which involves increasing growth that’s picking up over time as fiscal drag is reduced, continuing gains in the labor market, and inflation moving back towards objective. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | At some point, continued large-scale trade deficits could trigger equilibrating, and possibly dislocating, changes in prices, interest rates, and exchange rates. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Labor cost increases had not turned up and core inflation continued to edge lower. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Higher interest rates are working to temper demand and bring it into better alignment with supply, which is still constrained. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Indeed, virtually every forecast projects a modest rise in broad measures of U.S. inflation this year, reflecting the dissipation or reversal of favorable supply shocks, most importantly the reversal in the path of oil prices, the stabilization of commodity prices and non-oil import prices, and some rebound in health care costs. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The forecast for headline inflation was in the same range as that for core inflation in 2008 and 2009, reflecting expectations that energy prices would level off and then turn down and that increases in food prices would slow to a pace more in line with core inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Several members reiterated that business spending was the critical factor that would govern to a substantial degree the timing and extent of the acceleration in overall economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Eventually, financial markets may develop the instruments and associated analytical techniques for unearthing these implicit changes in the general price level with some precision. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | I have downplayed the role of the U.S. federal budget deficit today, and I disagree with the view, sometimes heard, that balancing the federal budget by itself would largely defuse the current account issue. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In their discussion of forward guidance about the target federal funds rate, a few members suggested that lowering the unemployment threshold to 6 percent could effectively convey the Committee's intention to keep the target federal funds rate low for an extended period. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. " | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | After deteriorating further early in the period, foreign equity prices bounced back and credit spreads on emerging market bonds narrowed, in both cases returning to December levels in most countries. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | A second question is whether moving in this direction would matter much for the conduct of monetary policy in the United States. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Participants' assessments of the economic outlook were little changed, with the intermeeting information generally seen as suggesting that economic growth would remain moderate over coming quarters and then pick up gradually. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Data received over the intermeeting period reinforced earlier indications that real GDP growth had turned up after having been slow in the first quarter of this year. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Inflation is a significant challenge for everyone, but it hits lower- and moderate-income people the hardest, since they spend a larger share of their incomes on necessities and often have less savings to fall back on. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | On the other hand, by that metric, the, the September 16, 2020 unemployment rate would have been in the—in the 20s in, in April. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Participants noted that the improved performance of investment suggested that the expansion was becoming more balanced, with strengthening business spending potentially offsetting some moderation in the growth of household spending from the elevated rates of recent years. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | These participants preferred to wait until there was greater assurance that the transmission mechanism of monetary policy via financial markets and the supply of credit to households and businesses was working effectively. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | First, the projected rates of productivity gains and potential output growth over the medium term were trimmed. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | But in the shorter run, we must also develop strategies to overcome the education deficiencies of all too many of our young people, and to renew the skills of workers who have not kept up with the changing demands of the workplace. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In contrast, Robert Lucas and others reached more dramatic conclusions, arguing that only unpredictable movements in monetary policy can affect the real economy and concluding that policy has no capacity to smooth the business cycle (Lucas, 1972; Sargent and Wallace, 1975). | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Participants observed that both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remained near 2 percent on a 12-month basis. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Two changes have particular relevance for the employment leg of the dual mandate.15 The new framework calls for monetary policy to seek to eliminate shortfalls of employment from its maximum level, in contrast to the previous approach that called for policy to minimize deviations when employment is too high as well as too low. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | First, the significant appreciation of the dollar over the last two years has clearly had an important restraining effect on U.S. inflation, both via the direct effect on the prices of imported goods and on the pricing power of domestic firms producing import-competing goods. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Of course, we’re ready to provide information that Congress needs to evaluate the Fed’s decisionmaking, in monetary policy and elsewhere. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | That is a positive for growth. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Their trade accounts tend to be in surplus, in some cases substantially, an indication that they are supplying more goods into the global economy than they are demanding. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The Federal Reserve’s enhanced guidance about its policy intentions and its substantial and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities will ensure that monetary policy remains highly accommodative, consistent with the pursuit of its mandated objectives of maximum employment and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Stimulus checks put money in people's pockets, and when they spend it, there will be upward pressure on prices. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The drop in demand leads, in turn, to a decline in actual output relative to its potential, that is, the level of output that the economy can produce at the maximum sustainable level of employment. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Presumably even normal amortized equity that did not come from higher home prices was extracted in this manner. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Despite further declines in vacancy rates and rising real estate prices, business spending on nonresidential construction also seemed to have been lackluster, with such activity not having changed much since last summer. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Job gains had been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate had remained low. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Two members preferred to leave the target range at 1 to 1-1/4 percent, suggesting that the Committee should wait to raise the target range until inflation moves up closer to 2 percent on a sustained basis or inflation expectations increase. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Instead, an upturn in foreign economic activity would depend more on recovery in the United States. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | the new statement maintains our definition that the longer-run goal for inflation is 2 percent, it elevates the importance—and the challenge—of keeping inflation expectations well anchored at 2 percent in a world in which an effective-lower-bound constraint is, in downturns, binding on the federal funds rate. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Changes in the deficit resulting from changes in economic conditions, health prices, demographics, and other technical or economic factors were allowed to show through to the deficit without sanction. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | However, the available measures of expectations--whether from surveys or financial markets--have shown longer-term expectations increasing very little, if at all, throughout this period, providing some assurance about the inflation outlook. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Although we cannot ascertain the precise rates of resource utilization that the economy can sustain, we can have little doubt that, after three years of above-trend growth, slack has been substantially reduced. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The fundamentals underlying capital spending continued to be supportive, as business sector output expanded briskly, firms remained flush with funds, and relative price declines for high-tech equipment continued to push down its user cost. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
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