label int64 0 2 | premise stringlengths 13 1.25k | hypothesis stringclasses 3 values |
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0 | During the five years before the crisis, core goods made a small negative contribution to inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | If the FOMC were to tie mechanically our actions to market prices, then we would be placed in the sorry position of validating whatever whim that currently struck investors' fancy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | PCE core is at about 2, and I think we see that, you know, the temporary increase in headline inflation as being a function of oil prices probably, and we expect inflation to go back down to 2 percent. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Although the unemployment rate is around a 50-year low, wages are rising broadly in line with productivity growth and underlying inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Staff Economic Outlook The projection for U. S. economic activity prepared by the staff for the April–May FOMC meeting was revised up on net. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In the textbook world of Mundell-Fleming, unanticipated monetary ease leads to lower interest rates, a drop in the home currency's value, and a stimulus to net exports. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Consumer price inflation remained subdued in November, with both the overall index and the index excluding food and energy items rising at the same relatively low rates as in October. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | A majority of FOMC participants indicated that they expect core inflation to remain below our 2 percent objective and employment to fall short of its maximum level at least through the end of 2022. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The risks to the forecast for real GDP were seen as tilted to the downside, reflecting the staff's assessment that neither monetary nor fiscal policy was well positioned to help the economy withstand substantial adverse shocks; the downside risks to the forecast of economic activity were seen as more pronounced than in December, mainly reflecting the greater uncertainty about global economic prospects and the financial market turbulence in the United States and abroad. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Indeed, consumer expenditures appeared to have been expanding moderately over the previous few months, buoyed by increases in employment, personal income, and household wealth. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | They also agreed that the war and related events were creating additional upward pressure on inflation and were weighing on global economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Some business executives reportedly believed that, with aggregate demand expanding robustly and the lower foreign exchange value of the dollar putting upward pressure on import prices, a degree of "pricing power" had returned. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The Committee took these actions to provide a somewhat more accommodative policy in response to muted inflation pressures and the risks to the outlook I mentioned earlier. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Key factors that influence consumer spending--including a low unemployment rate, ongoing gains in real labor compensation, and still elevated measures of households' net worth--were supportive of a pickup in consumer spending to a solid pace in the near term. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Many indicated that they expected cyclical pressures associated with a tightening labor market to show through to higher inflation over the medium term. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | But first, please allow me to offer a few remarks on the economic outlook and Federal Reserve monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The dual mandate seems proper and fitting, given that economic costs are incurred both by having inflation stray from its long-run goal and by having output deviate from the economy's potential to produce | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | While favorable financing would help to sustain the housing sector, members anticipated that any further impetus to growth from that sector was likely to be limited. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | For example, wages and prices that are set for some period in the future will of necessity embody the inflation expectations of the parties to the negotiation; increases in expected inflation will thus tend to promote greater actual inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Mishkin and Jonas (forthcoming) describe the experiences of the three transition economies with inflation targets. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Monetary policy, maximum employment, stable prices—it’s less obvious to me. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | At the same time, however, the near-term outlook for inflation had deteriorated, and the risks that underlying inflation pressures could prove to be greater than anticipated appeared to have risen. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Waiting too long to begin moving toward the neutral rate could risk a nasty surprise down the road--either too much inflation, financial instability, or both. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | With capacity utilization already at high levels, relatively rapid growth in inventory investment, if it were superimposed on stronger-than- projected expansion in final demand, could portend serious pressures on resources and inflationary consequences for the economy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Total nonfarm payroll employment increased at a solid pace in October and November, and the unemployment rate declined, reaching 4. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Financial conditions continue to pose a downside risk to the outlook for growth. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | On the other hand, if recent productivity gains were to be sustained, as some business contacts indicated they would be, potential output currently could be higher than standard measures suggested, and the high level of the unemployment rate could be a more accurate indication of slack in resource utilization than usual measures of the output gap. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The trimmed mean measure of 12-month PCE price inflation constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas remained at or near 2 percent in recent months. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | November 19, 2021 Perspectives on Global Monetary Policy Coordination, Cooperation, and Correlation Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the "Macroeconomic Policy and Global Economic Recovery" 2021 Asia Economic Policy Conference, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Center for Pacific Basin Studies, San Francisco, California (via webcast) Share Watch Live In my remarks today, I would like to offer some perspectives on global monetary policy correlation and what it can—and cannot—reveal about the prevalence and value of global monetary policy coordination or, in the limit, binding global monetary cooperation.1 In both the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Global Pandemic Collapse (GPC), major central banks around the world responded by cutting policy rates to, and then keeping them at, their effective lower bounds (ELBs); by increasing their balance sheets through ambitious and expansive large-scale asset purchase and lending programs; and by offering forward guidance—both Delphic and Odyssean—on the stance of their future monetary policies.2 As these examples make clear, we certainly do observe that national monetary policies are often correlated, and such examples are not confined to recent experience. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The course of underlying inflation pressures was more difficult to gauge, however. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Moreover, monetary policy actions addressed at a perceived bubble in one sector may have undesirable effects on other asset prices and the economy more generally. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Changes in the deficit resulting from changes in economic conditions, health prices, demographics, and other technical or economic factors were allowed to show through to the deficit without sanction. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Thus, I believe this description essentially characterizes the current macroeconomic environment, and my own projection of inflation at a three-year horizon is equal to my assessment of the mandate-consistent inflation rate. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | During the past several years, workers across the wage distribution--not just at the upper end--have seen noticeable increases in the inflation-adjusted value of their wages. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In real terms, with a 2 percent inflation objective—that’s 1 percent in real terms. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | During much of the recovery, forecasters have been overly optimistic about growth but too pessimistic on job creation and the decline in the unemployment rate. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In May, there was a notable rebound in employment and decline in unemployment, and these developments are certainly welcome. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The second is intermediate-term need for reserve expansion and contraction, arising, for example, from seasonal changes in the demand for currency and reserves. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | It is precisely because none of these preconditions hold that monetary policy is so difficult and principles are needed to guide its implementation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | And downward revisions to the longer-run normal unemployment rate in a way suggests that participants are seeing more slack in the economy now than they previously did. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | For example, in his monetary policy testimony of July 1992, Chairman Greenspan said, "As I have often noted to this committee, the most important contribution the Federal Reserve can make to encouraging the highest sustainable growth the U.S. economy can deliver over time is to provide a backdrop of reasonably stable prices on average for business and household decisionmaking" (Greenspan, 1992, pp. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In each case, my own preferred approach is to take the other variable into account in performing our main job of dealing with inflation and unemployment | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | So that’s in the low 20s, and that’s post the May employment report. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | This allows the economy to operate at a higher utilization rate without inflationary consequences, at least until the higher productivity is fully anticipated in wage bargaining or until productivity growth stops accelerating. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | While liquid deposits continued to grow slowly, heightened demand for safety and liquidity appeared to boost holdings of retail money market mutual funds. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | By contrast, economic activity in China and other developing countries showed greater buoyancy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Looking ahead, reports from retailer contacts were somewhat mixed; many anticipated relatively depressed holiday sales and where possible were making efforts to limit buildups of holiday merchandise, while other retailers were confident that sales would be reasonably well maintained, albeit generally somewhat below levels or growth rates experienced in previous holiday seasons. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The July-August deficit in U. S. trade in goods and services was higher than its average in the second quarter, as further growth in imports exceeded the rise in exports. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In these circumstances, any tendency for price pressures to mount was likely to emerge only gradually and to be reversible through a relatively limited policy adjustment. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | While participants generally felt that the pace of underlying productivity growth remained robust, careful attention would need to be paid to developments regarding unit labor costs and profit margins. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | If episodic recurrences of ruptured confidence are integral to the way our economy and our financial markets work now and in the future, it has significant implications for risk management and, by implication, macroeconomic modeling and monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | M2 growth picked up appreciably during December and January, evidently reflecting extra demands for liquidity and safety during the century-date-change period. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | That projection, along with the path to year-three inflation, should help the public differentiate short-term shocks to price stability from the longer-term price trends it should use for planning purposes. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | There are a variety of versions of this basic approach, depending on measures of utilization and inflation rates and depending on whether the adjustment is made in response to past and current movements in utilization and inflation rates or in response to forecasts of these variables. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The outbreak has also disrupted economic activity in many countries and has prompted significant movements in financial markets. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | As a policymaker, I'd like to think that well-executed monetary and fiscal policies--each focused importantly on their respective long-run goals--played some role in creating economic conditions that fostered noninflationary economic growth. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Yields on longer-term inflation-indexed Treasury securities, which are relatively illiquid, rose more sharply than did those on nominal securities. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Several commented that an asymmetric directive did not imply a commitment to tighten monetary policy at some point, whether during the intermeeting period or at a future meeting, but it did imply the need for special vigilance. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | We take the level of the stock market into account when we consider the economic outlook and monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Implications of Economic Theory I am going to assert some conclusions based on economic theory that help to understand the potential for monetary policy to achieve these objectives and the consistency among them. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Several saw that outlook as depending importantly on continued strengthening of the labor market or on an above-trend pace of economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Even so, in the absence of major overhangs in inventories of business equipment and consumer durables, and given favorable conditions in financial markets, members believed that a resumption of moderate, sustainable growth after a relatively brief period of weakness was the most likely outlook for the economy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In this case headline inflation will rise well above its underlying trend as the price of energy rises but will soon fall well below its underlying trend as the price of energy falls back to its initial level. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The first round of the three-month U. S. dollar auctions that major foreign central banks announced on September 15 was held in October; demand was quite limited, and only the European Central Bank (ECB) drew on its swap line with the Federal Reserve. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook In conjunction with this FOMC meeting, all meeting participants--the five members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks--provided projections of output growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2011 through 2013 and over the longer run. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Some may see a monetary policy that actively addresses episodes of financial instability along the lines that I have just described as promoting excessive risk-taking and thus increasing the probability of future crises. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Meeting Participants' Views and Committee Policy ActionIn conjunction with this FOMC meeting, all meeting participants-the four members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of the twelve Federal Reserve Banks-provided projections for economic growth, the unemployment rate, and consumer price inflation for each year from 2009 through 2011. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | These forecasts and forward guidance had a significant effect on raising market interest rates, even though we did nothing with our primary policy tool, the federal funds rate, in December 2021. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Given that we have yet to experience difficulties in funding a current account deficit that exceeds 6 percent of our GDP, what are the limits to the foreign markets' absorption of claims on U.S. residents? | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The changes—the financial market changes that you described, particularly the increase in stock prices, the increase in longer-term rates, and the strengthening of the dollar, suggest that many market participants anticipate expansionary fiscal policies that would raise interest rates somewhat in the United States relative to abroad and would cause a strengthening in the dollar. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The American economy is very strong and well positioned to handle tighter monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | And it may generally take longer still for a policy change to alter the course of inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Rents have grown dramatically, and while home sales have slowed, the continued increasing price of single-family homes indicates to me that rents won't decline anytime in the near future. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | First, if, as projected, core PCE inflation this year does come in at, or certainly above, 3 percent, I will consider that much more than a "moderate" overshoot of our 2 percent longer-run inflation objective. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Indeed, the proposed reduction in the nominal federal funds rate would about offset the apparent increase in the real federal funds rate stemming from a recent decline in inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations were little changed, on balance, in recent months. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Given stable prices, savers and investors have more confidence about the ultimate value of their investments. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | and that given the downside risks to economic growth, an early exit could unnecessarily damp the ongoing economic recovery. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Profit margins have been running a little higher this year than last, aided importantly by strong growth in labor productivity. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Most other market interest rates declined further on balance over the period in an atmosphere of greater volatility in financial markets. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Moreover, not all measures of core inflation had accelerated; in particular, core PCE price inflation had been quite stable on a twelve-month basis for some time. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Indeed, some members saw underlying inflation as relatively stable and put low odds on the possibility that prices now were accelerating. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Workers in the lowest-wage quartile face an extremely elevated rate of unemployment of around 23 percent.7 The advent of widespread vaccinations should revive in-person schooling and childcare along with demand for the in-person services that employ a significant fraction of the lower-wage workforce. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | First, there is a tug of war between the continued exceptional momentum in private domestic demand and the external drag from the Asian crisis. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Although the unemployment rate has declined somewhat since the summer, it remains elevated. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Returns on indexed bonds are tied to forecasts of specific published price indexes, which may or may not reflect the market's judgment of the future purchasing power of money. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In view of the most recent information on the economy, members agreed that it was appropriate for the post-meeting statement to characterize economic growth as apparently continuing to moderate. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | On the other hand, including a reference risked the possibility of suggesting greater concern on the part of the Committee than was actually the case, perhaps leading to the misimpression that monetary policy was likely to respond to increases in volatility. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Now, with inflation below 2 percent, I think it’s appropriate that the labor market be that tight. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | If the FOMC were to tie mechanically our actions to market prices, then we would be placed in the sorry position of validating whatever whim that currently struck investors' fancy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The unemployment rate is at a 50-year low, inflation is close to our 2 percent objective, gross domestic product growth is solid, and the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) baseline outlook is for a continuation of this performance in 2020.2 At present, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price inflation is running somewhat below our 2 percent objective, | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Participants agreed to continue to explore ways to increase transparency and clarity in the Committee's policy communications, and they indicated a willingness to look into modifications to the SEP. At the end of the discussion, the Chairman asked the subcommittee on communications to explore potential approaches to providing more information about the Committee's collective judgment regarding the economic outlook and appropriate monetary policy through the SEP. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The considerable monetary ease already in place, the prospect of significantly more fiscal stimulus, the continuing strong gains in structural productivity, and the anticipated improvement in business confidence would provide significant impetus to spending. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Many members concluded that because there did not seem to be any urgency to tighten current policy for domestic reasons, given the likelihood that inflation would remain subdued for a while, important weight should be given to potential reactions abroad. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The unemployment rate was unchanged over the period between the April and June meetings, but payroll employment posted solid gains, and, on balance, a range of labor market indicators suggested that underutilization of labor resources diminished somewhat. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | With the risks to the forecast for economic activity tilted to the downside, the risks to the inflation projection were also viewed as having a downward skew. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
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