label int64 0 2 | premise stringlengths 13 1.25k | hypothesis stringclasses 3 values |
|---|---|---|
0 | Millions of new jobs have been created in the last few years; and unemployment, now at 4.3 percent, has been at or below 5 percent for over two years. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Conclusion In conclusion, let us not forget that the declines in inflation over the past two decades and the resulting boost to monetary credibility we currently enjoy were earned with some economic pain, as the pace of economic activity was slowed, at times severely, to bring inflation down. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Our test for this step was making "substantial further progress" toward our employment and inflation goals. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Inflation pressures remain muted, and indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are at the lower end of their historic ranges. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | With respect to the new framework itself, the statement now notes that the neutral level of the federal funds rate has declined relative to its historical average and therefore that the policy rate is more likely than in the past to be constrained by its ELB, and, moreover, that this binding ELB constraint is likely to impart downside risks to inflation and employment that the Committee needs to consider in implementing its monetary policy strategy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Others indicated that because part of the recent decline in the jobless rate was associated with a reduction in labor force participation, the drop in the unemployment rate likely overstated the overall improvement in the labor market. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Given recent developments, the medium-term outlook for inflation will receive particular scrutiny. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In particular, I will focus on liquidity regulation and supervision as well as interactions with monetary policy tools. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | And that’s because of this misalignment between supply and demand. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | they also concurred that it would be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The staff expected the 12-month change in PCE prices to gradually move down in coming months, reflecting, importantly, the fading of base effects along with smaller expected monthly price increases, | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Industrial production had slipped in recent months and private payroll employment had changed little, while labor productivity remained on a strong upward trend. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Despite a recent uptick in consumer prices, year-over-year consumer inflation remained at a very low level. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Moreover, it was difficult to anticipate how much the higher food and energy prices might affect inflation expectations and wage demands and thereby potentially become embedded more generally in the price structure. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | One participant remarked that, with inflation having run consistently below 2 percent in recent years and market-based measures of inflation compensation still low, postponing an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would help push inflation expectations up to levels consistent with the Committee's objective. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, has been running close to 1½ percent. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | It can be argued that this meant getting the economy back to its 2019 state with very low unemployment and inflation near 2 percent. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Still, if aggregate demand and potential aggregate supply follow the paths that I outlined earlier, the slack in resource utilization should diminish, unit labor costs should begin to move higher, and the underlying rate of inflation should stabilize. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The vote encompassed approval of the paragraph below for inclusion in the statement to be released shortly after the meeting: "The Committee judges that some further policy firming may yet be needed to address inflation risks but emphasizes that the extent and timing of any such firming will depend importantly on the evolution of the economic outlook as implied by incoming information. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The U. S. international trade deficit declined somewhat in May after reaching a record high in April. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Thus, reducing vacancies from an extremely high level to a lower (but still strong) level has a relatively limited effect on hiring and on unemployment. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Total U. S. consumer prices, as measured by the PCE price index, increased 1. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Economic activity expanded in the second quarter, partly reflecting growth in consumer spending and exports. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | However, equity prices subsequently retraced some of the earlier declines as concerns about trade policy seemed to ease and corporate earnings reports for the first quarter of 2018 generally came in stronger than expected. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The Federal Reserve is fully committed to both sides of its mandate—to price stability as well as to maximum employment—and it has both the tools and the will to act at the appropriate time to avoid any emerging threat to price stability. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Concepts associated with deflation such as liquidity traps and the zero bound on nominal interest rates had, for practical purposes, disappeared from economic thought. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | that longer-term inflation expectations were likely to remain anchored, partly because modest changes in labor costs would constrain inflation trends | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Their trade accounts tend to be in surplus, in some cases substantially, an indication that they are supplying more goods into the global economy than they are demanding. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Indeed, I would argue that over the past eight years, the framework served us well and supported the Federal Reserve's efforts after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) first to achieve and then, for several years, to sustain—until cut short this spring by the COVID-19 pandemic—the operation of the economy at or close to both our statutorily assigned goals of maximum employment and price stability in what became the longest economic expansion in U.S. history. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Yields on nominal Treasury coupon securities declined over the intermeeting period while yields on inflation-indexed Treasury securities were roughly unchanged, which left inflation compensation noticeably lower. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | While a constant rate of money growth will not always be optimal, if money demand is sufficiently stable, and not particularly interest sensitive, it will pin down inflation in the long run and help smooth the business cycle in the short run. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook In conjunction with this FOMC meeting, all meeting participants--the five members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks--provided projections of output growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2011 through 2013 and over the longer run. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In particular, the Committee noted that it would respond as necessary to maintain price stability. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Those participants saw substantial slack in resource utilization and hence continued to judge that inflation was likely to remain subdued over the medium term as the economy continued to recover. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | You can get to 20, if you wanted to, easily, but labor force participation, the unemployment rate, different age groups of—you know, prime-age labor force participation, in particular, gets a lot of focus, the JOLTS data get a lot of focus. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Nonetheless, the current account deficit continued to grow as a result of the surge in U.S. investment and productivity and the associated capital inflows seeking the higher U.S. rates of return. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Such increases in productivity along with slack in foreign economies contributed to the very strong competition in most markets that was continuing generally to suppress efforts to raise prices. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Several other participants, however, noted that increases in excess reserves or the monetary base, by themselves, might not have a significant stimulative effect on the economy or prices because the normal bank intermediation mechanism appeared to be impaired, and banks may not be willing to lend their excess reserves. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | My fellow governors and I routinely receive from our staff a translation of the term structure of Treasury yields into implied forward rates, volatility inferred from options prices, and paths for expected monetary policy action consistent with futures prices. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Financial markets seem to think the same—5-year breakeven inflation expectations are around 2.5 percent, and 5-year, 5-year-forward measures are around 2 percent, when adjusted for the difference between CPI (consumer price index) and PCE (personal consumption expenditures) inflation rates.6 Hence, markets do not believe the current factors pushing up inflation will last for long. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The Decline in Long-Term Interest Rates and the Role of Monetary Policy One of the most remarkable and fundamental changes in the global financial landscape over the past three decades has been the steady and significant decline in global sovereign bond yields. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Through this channel, the decline in inflation volatility should be reflected in a smaller inflation risk premium in nominal bond yields, which is exactly what is estimated in the Kim, Walsh, and Wei (2019) yield curve model (figure 4, "Term Premium Decomposition"). | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | While I will carefully monitor inflation expectations, it will be important to see a sustained improvement in actual inflation to meet our average inflation goal. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Term premiums could be lower when inflation expectations are well anchored or the macroeconomy is less volatile. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Most participants continued to see the risks to inflation as balanced. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | As a consequence, a sustainable, non-inflationary expansion is likely to involve some moderation in the growth of economic activity to a rate more consistent with the expansion of the nation’s underlying productive capacity. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Indeed, an oft-quoted quip by economist Robert Solow held that, as of the late 1980s, "computers are everywhere except in the productivity statistics. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Participants' Views and Committee Policy ActionIn conjunction with this FOMC meeting, all meeting participants--the five members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks--provided projections for economic growth, the unemployment rate, and consumer price inflation for each year from 2009 through 2011 and over a longer horizon. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | To provide some evidence for this assertion, as well as some reasons for it, I draw your attention to a speech that Chairman Greenspan made earlier this year, entitled "Risk and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy" (Greenspan, 2004). | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | We had a 10 percent unemployment rate, and our congressional mandate is maximum employment and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | A European Central Bank analysis concluded that the release of capital buffers increased headroom for banks relative to not only their regulatory thresholds, but also their internal risk controls, and enabled banks to continue providing credit to households and businesses.6 And of course, monetary policy is focused on restoring price stability in a high-inflation environment. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Fortunately, as we make monetary policy we have the advantage of several forecasts. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Hungary and Poland adopted inflation targeting following parliamentary acts stipulating that price stability was the main objective for the central bank. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Moreover, it was difficult to anticipate how much the higher food and energy prices might affect inflation expectations and wage demands and thereby potentially become embedded more generally in the price structure. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Consumer prices had edged up in recent months, | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Moreover, we should recognize that these disinflationary effects could dissipate or even be reversed in coming years. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | However, other participants observed that measures of longer-term inflation compensation derived from financial instruments had remained stable of late, and that survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations also had not changed appreciably, on net, in recent months. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | They also generally expected that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Therefore, monetary policy in Japan might be affected not only by views about how such policies would affect macroeconomic performance, for given fiscal policies, | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | But I do think that—and I do think also that unemployment insurance benefits will run out in September, so to the extent that’s a factor, which is not clear, it will no longer be a factor fairly soon. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Rather, members agreed that inflation was likely to moderate in coming quarters, but they also concurred that it would be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | These policy moves would therefore prevent the far greater economic pain associated with entrenched high inflation, including the even tighter policy and more severe restraint on economic activity that would then be needed to restore price stability. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Participants thought that consumer expenditures likely would expand at a moderate pace in coming quarters, supported by solid gains in employment and real income. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Just as in the earlier analysis of Ammer and Freeman, this analysis suggested that in all three countries the inflation targeting led to a drop in inflation and nominal interest rates. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In keeping with the practice at meetings when the Committee establishes its long-run ranges for growth of the money and debt aggregates, the members of the Committee and the Federal Reserve Bank presidents not currently serving as members had prepared individual projections of economic activity, the rate of unemployment, and inflation for the year 1996. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In any case, the real federal funds rate is now lower than prior to the easings, at the same time that the unemployment rate is lower and projected growth higher than it was prior to the easings. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In addition, some policymakers observed that the timing and magnitude of future policy adjustments would ultimately be determined by the Committee's interpretation of the incoming data on the economy and prices rather than by its current expectation of those developments. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | where unemployment continues to fall at a gradual pace as it has been since last September—and we have made some progress since last September | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Members noted that they expected to maintain this target range until they were confident that the economy had weathered recent events and was on track to achieve the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Holiday shopping reportedly was relatively solid, and, reflecting the improvement in the housing market, demand for home furnishings and construction materials was up. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Even with the improving labor market, I still hear from businesses that qualified workers are difficult to find, and labor shortages remain a drag on hiring and on economic growth. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Alternatively, monetary policy could convert the temporary disinflationary effect into a permanent one. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Although inflation is ultimately a monetary phenomenon, it seems natural to expect, as others have argued, that these developments would have exerted some downward pressure on inflation in the United States. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | More broadly, post-crisis monetary policy supported asset values, reduced interest payments, and increased both employment and income. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | I’m more concerned about that than about the possibility, which exists, of higher inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | On the positive side, weakness in world demand for oil was fostering a significant downtrend in energy prices, albeit with adverse effects on energy producers in this country and abroad. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Fourth, I will discuss the major findings of the review as codified in our new Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy and highlight some important policy implications that flow from them. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | To see this, suppose that a speculative bubble has emerged and that a central bank, operating under a conventional strategy, has raised interest rates to keep the projected output gap closed and expected inflation at its desired level before the bubble bursts. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook In conjunction with this FOMC meeting, participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2022 through 2024 and over the longer run based on their individual assessments of appropriate monetary policy, including the path of the federal funds rate. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | For example, if financial market participants thought that the Federal Reserve were not dedicated to maintaining long-run price stability, they would be less willing to hold dollar-denominated assets and the resulting decline in the exchange value of the dollar would tend to add to inflationary pressures. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | An easing of supply constraints was expected to support continued gains in economic activity and employment as well as a reduction in inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In their assessment of the outlook for inflation, members agreed that | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Tax rebates, declining energy prices, and widespread discounting of retail prices were cited as positive factors in support of consumer spending on a wide range of goods and services. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Share prices of financial firms fell especially sharply, reportedly a reflection, in part, of concerns about exposures to subprime mortgages and about the effect of a potential slowdown in merger activity on operating profits. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Following these swings, inflation was expected to finish the year at just below 2 percent. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | And, and some of the answer to that may be price. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The U. S. international trade deficit narrowed in May, as a large increase in exports of goods and services more than offset a moderate increase in imports. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The implications of the spread of e-money for monetary policy would arise from the substitution of e-money for both currency and deposits, shrinking the size of the monetary base. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | If you look at the number of job openings compared to the number of unemployed, it’s—we’re, we’re clearly on a path to a very strong labor market with high participation, low unemployment, high employment, wages moving up across the spectrum. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In these models, each asset price contains a risk premium that represents the additional return demanded by risk-averse investors for bearing risk. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Participants generally interpreted the information that became available during the intermeeting period as suggesting that economic growth would most likely remain moderate over coming quarters and then pick up very gradually. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Slump in foreign domestic demand I would like to turn now to developments at the global level that may have helped to widen the U.S. current account deficit. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Although some of the recent data on economic activity had been better than anticipated, most participants saw the incoming information as broadly in line with their earlier projections for moderate growth; accordingly, their views on the economic outlook had not changed appreciably. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | With regard to our price-stability mandate, | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Future policy adjustments would depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Participants agreed that the path of the economy would depend significantly on the course of the virus and that the ongoing public health crisis would continue to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In their discussion of monetary policy for the intermeeting period, Committee members agreed that the Federal Reserve's large-scale securities purchases were providing financial stimulus that would contribute to the gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The unwinding in the early months of 1997 of special factors that had boosted net exports in the fourth quarter of 1996 was offsetting some of the effects on production of the persisting strength in domestic demand. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
End of preview. Expand
in Data Studio
README.md exists but content is empty.
- Downloads last month
- 10