Datasets:
GeneLab_benchmark — Results Summary
Generated: 2026-03-01 (Updated: 2026-03-29 — v5 biological interpretation added)
v4 Phase 1: Multi-Method Evaluation (256 evaluations)
Scope: 8 tissues x 8 classifiers x 4 feature types = 256 evaluations
Classifiers
PCA-LR, ElasticNet-LR, Random Forest, XGBoost, SVM-Linear, SVM-RBF, TabNet, LightGBM
Feature Types
Gene (log2-normalized), Hallmark (ssGSEA), KEGG (ssGSEA), Pathway-combined
Best Results per Tissue
| Tissue | Best AUROC | Method | Feature | perm_p | Significant |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thymus | 0.948 | PCA-LR | KEGG | <0.05 | Yes* |
| Colon | 0.921 | PCA-LR | KEGG | <0.05 | Yes* |
| Lung | 0.901 | PCA-LR | Gene | <0.05 | Yes* |
| Kidney | 0.829 | ElasticNet-LR | Hallmark | <0.01 | Yes** |
| Eye | 0.823 | PCA-LR | Hallmark | — | — |
| Skin | 0.819 | PCA-LR | Gene | — | — |
| Gastrocnemius | 0.776 | PCA-LR | Gene | — | — |
| Liver | 0.670 | PCA-LR | Gene | — | — |
Classifier Rankings (Gene-level mean across 8 tissues)
| Rank | Classifier | Gene Mean AUROC |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PCA-LR | 0.776 |
| 2 | ElasticNet-LR | 0.762 |
| 3 | LightGBM | ~0.72 |
| 4 | XGBoost | ~0.71 |
| 5 | Random Forest | ~0.70 |
| 6 | SVM-Linear | ~0.69 |
| 7 | TabNet | 0.527 |
| 8 | SVM-RBF | 0.510 |
Key v4 Findings
- 40/256 evaluations significant at p<0.05; **6/8** tissues have >=1 significant result
- PCA-LR best overall; deep learning (TabNet) and kernel methods (SVM-RBF) worst
- Pathway features improve: kidney (0.584->0.829), thymus (0.908->0.948), eye (0.697->0.823)
- Gene features better for: skin (0.819), lung (0.901)
- v4 expanded controls: BC/VC included (liver 261 vs v1's 193 samples)
- v1 PCA-LR liver AUROC reproduced exactly (0.5870 vs 0.5871) using task folds
v4 Label Encoding
- Flight/FLT -> 1
- GC/Ground Control/Ground/Basal/BC/VC/Vivarium -> 0
- AG (Artificial Gravity) -> excluded
v1 Results (6 tissues, original analysis)
Hypothesis Results
| Hypothesis | Statement | Verdict | Key Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| H1 | Liver has the most consistent cross-mission spaceflight transcriptome | REFUTED | Thymus(0.860) >> Liver(0.577). Thymus and gastrocnemius Tier 1. |
| H2 | Cross-mission transfer failure from biological diversity, not batch | SUPPORTED | NES conservation correlates with transfer AUROC (r=0.9 for 5 tissues excl. gastrocnemius; original 4-tissue r=1.0). D3 pathway F1=0.06 (batch-invariant). |
| H3 | Pathway-level preserves spaceflight response better than gene-level | CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTED | Kidney rescue (0.43→0.74), Eye (0.79→0.92). But liver→thymus anti-predicts (AUROC<0.5). Tissue-pair dependent. |
Category B: Cross-Mission Transfer (PCA-LR, AUROC)
| Tissue | Mean AUROC | 95% CI | N Missions | N Pairs | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thymus | 0.860 | [0.763, 0.953] | 4 | 12 | 1 |
| Gastrocnemius | 0.801 | [0.653, 0.944] | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| Skin | 0.772 | [0.691, 0.834] | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| Eye | 0.754 | [0.688, 0.838] | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| Liver | 0.577 | [0.492, 0.666] | 6 | 30 | 3 |
| Kidney | 0.555 | [0.397, 0.681] | 3 | 6 | 3 |
Thymus vs Liver Δ = 0.283. Permutation tests: Thymus vs Liver p=0.001, Gastro vs Liver p=0.048, Skin vs Liver p=0.032.
Category A Detection Significance (BH-FDR corrected)
| Tissue | AUROC | Raw p | FDR q | Significant? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skin | 0.821 | 0.002 | 0.012 | Yes |
| Gastrocnemius | 0.824 | 0.026 | 0.074 | No |
| Thymus | 0.923 | 0.037 | 0.074 | No |
| Eye | 0.789 | 0.063 | 0.095 | No |
| Liver | 0.670 | 0.091 | 0.109 | No |
| Kidney | 0.432 | 0.281 | 0.281 | No |
Note: Only skin survives BH-FDR correction at α=0.05. However, all top-4 tissues have AUROC > 0.7 (GO threshold). High AUROC with modest significance reflects small fold counts (3-4 folds per tissue), not weak signal.
Category C: Cross-Tissue Transfer (3 Methods, AUROC)
| Pair | Method A (Gene) | Method B (DEG) | Method C (Pathway) | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C1 liver→kidney | 0.730 [0.62, 0.83] | 0.441 NS | 0.483 NS | A |
| C2 liver→gastro | 0.563 NS | 0.676* | 0.867 [0.72, 0.98] | C |
| C3 liver→thymus | 0.350 NS | 0.621* | 0.184 (anti) | B |
| C4 thymus→kidney | 0.585 NS | 0.539 NS | 0.690 [0.58, 0.79] | C |
H3 test: Method C wins 2/4 pairs (C2, C4). C vs A mean diff = -0.001 (essentially tied overall).
Category D: Condition/Confounder Prediction (macro-F1)
| Task | Tissue | N | Gene F1 | Gene p | Pathway F1 | Pathway p | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D3 Mission ID (6-class) | Liver | 264 | 1.000 [1.00, 1.00] | <0.001 | 0.056 [0.04, 0.07] NS | 1.0 | Perfect batch separation (gene); batch-invariant (pathway) |
| D4 Strain (2-class) | Thymus | 34 | 0.892 [0.48, 1.00] | 0.004 | 0.817 [0.47, 1.00] | 0.015 | Strain detectable even from GC-only samples. EXPLORATORY (n_minority=3) |
| D5 Hardware RR vs MHU | Liver | 264 | 1.000 [1.00, 1.00] | <0.001 | 0.386 [0.36, 0.41] NS | 1.0 | Perfect gene separation; collinear with D3 (hardware derived from mission) |
| D5 Hardware RR vs MHU | Thymus | 92 | 1.000 [1.00, 1.00] | <0.001 | 0.352 [0.31, 0.39] NS | 1.0 | Perfect gene separation; collinear with D3 |
| D6 Gravity (3-class) | Liver | 9 | 0.886 | 0.002 | 0.413 NS | 0.354 | uG separable from gene expression |
| D6 Gravity (3-class) | Thymus | 9 | 0.657 | 0.037 | 0.641 (p=0.052) | 0.052 | Gene ≈ Pathway for gravity detection |
Confounder Hierarchy
D3 (mission F1=1.0) >= D5 (hardware F1=1.0, collinear) >= D4 (strain F1=0.89, exploratory n=3)
All pathway F1 ≈ 0.05-0.41 → pathways resist confounder detection (batch-invariant)
Key insight: D5 hardware prediction is perfect but collinear with D3 — hardware type (RR vs MHU) is a deterministic function of mission ID. D5 F1 should be interpreted as an upper bound of D3, not independent evidence. D4 strain effect is detectable but exploratory (minority class n=3).
J5: Gene-level vs Pathway-level Comparison (12 tasks)
Category A — Spaceflight Detection (LOMO, AUROC)
| Tissue | Gene | Pathway | Diff (P-G) | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liver | 0.670 | 0.574 | -0.096 | Gene |
| Gastrocnemius | 0.824 | 0.688 | -0.137 | Gene |
| Kidney | 0.432 | 0.743 | +0.311 | Pathway |
| Thymus | 0.923 | 0.879 | -0.044 | Gene |
| Eye | 0.789 | 0.915 | +0.125 | Pathway |
Mean diff (Cat A): +0.032 (essentially tied)
Across All Categories
| Category | N | Gene wins | Pathway wins | Mean diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A (Detection) | 5 | 3 | 2 | +0.032 |
| C (Cross-tissue) | 4 | 2 | 2 | -0.001 |
| D (Condition, D3+D6 original) | 3 | 3 | 0 | -0.478 |
| D (Condition, full D3-D6) | 6 | 6 | 0 | -0.462 |
| Total (original 12) | 12 | 8 | 4 | -0.106 |
| Total (expanded 15) | 15 | 11 | 4 | -0.174 |
Note: D4/D5 all show gene >> pathway, consistent with D3/D6 pattern. Pathways systematically resist confounder/batch detection.
NES Conservation vs Cross-Mission Transfer
| Tissue | NES Mean r | Transfer AUROC | N fGSEA missions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thymus | 0.619 | 0.860 | 3 |
| Eye | 0.335 | 0.754 | 3 |
| Skin | 0.147 | 0.772 | 3 |
| Liver | 0.059 | 0.577 | 6 |
| Gastrocnemius | 0.057 | 0.801* | 2 |
| Kidney | 0.048 | 0.555 | 3 |
*Gastrocnemius outlier: only 2/3 missions have fGSEA data (RR-5 no DGE). †Skin: RR-7 DGE absent; fGSEA on RR-6, MHU-2_dorsal (GLDS-238), MHU-2_femoral (GLDS-239) only. Excluding gastrocnemius: rank-order correlation for 5 tissues (thymus/eye/skin/liver/kidney) Spearman r = 0.9 (skin NES rank 3rd vs transfer rank 2nd — partial outlier). Original 4-tissue finding (thymus/eye/liver/kidney, excl gastrocnemius) maintains perfect rank concordance (Spearman r = 1.0).
Biological Validation (fGSEA Hallmark, all tissues PASS)
| Tissue | Top Differentially Enriched Pathways (FLT vs GC) | Consistency |
|---|---|---|
| Liver | OXIDATIVE_PHOSPHORYLATION, FATTY_ACID_METABOLISM | Literature-concordant (direction varies by mission) |
| Thymus | E2F_TARGETS, G2M_CHECKPOINT, IFN-gamma | Thymocyte proliferation |
| Gastrocnemius | OXIDATIVE_PHOSPHORYLATION, MYOGENESIS | Muscle metabolism (direction varies by mission) |
| Kidney | MTORC1_SIGNALING, CHOLESTEROL_HOMEOSTASIS | Renal metabolism |
| Eye | OXIDATIVE_PHOSPHORYLATION (dominant 3/3 missions) | Retina metabolic demand |
| Skin | E2F_TARGETS, G2M_CHECKPOINT, EPITHELIAL_MESENCHYMAL_TRANSITION | Cell proliferation + ECM remodeling (2/3 missions consistent) |
Note: "Top Differentially Enriched" = highest |NES| across missions. Enrichment direction (up/down in spaceflight) may vary by mission for liver and gastrocnemius due to mission-specific biological variability. See individual fGSEA result files in processed/fgsea/ for per-mission NES values and directions.
Tier 2: Geneformer (Mouse-GF) vs Classical Baseline
Mouse-Geneformer (6L BERT, 56K mouse gene vocab, pretrained on 30M scRNA-seq cells) fine-tuned on bulk RNA-seq LOMO folds (10 epochs, batch=16, lr=2e-5, freeze=4/6 layers).
| Task | Tissue | Geneformer AUROC | Baseline AUROC | Baseline Model | Delta | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1 | Liver | 0.486 ± 0.074 | 0.588 | LR ElasticNet | -0.102 | Baseline |
| A2 | Gastrocnemius | 0.382 ± 0.054 | 0.907 | LR ElasticNet | -0.525 | Baseline |
| A3 | Kidney | 0.452 ± 0.080 | 0.521 | LR ElasticNet | -0.069 | Baseline |
| A4 | Thymus | 0.495 ± 0.233 | 0.923 | PCA-50 + LogReg | -0.428 | Baseline |
| A5 | Skin | 0.557 ± 0.087 | 0.821 | LR ElasticNet | -0.265 | Baseline |
| A6 | Eye | 0.484 ± 0.117 | 0.789 | PCA-50 + LogReg | -0.305 | Baseline |
| Mean | 6 tissues | 0.476 | 0.758 | — | -0.283 | Baseline |
Interpretation: Classical ML wins 6/6 tissues (sign test p=0.016). Geneformer performs near chance level (0.5) on small-n bulk RNA-seq (train n=30-100). This is consistent with literature — foundation models pretrained on single-cell data do not automatically transfer to small-sample bulk transcriptomics tasks.
Note: Table shows best baseline per tissue for fair comparison. Publication figures use unified PCA-LR baseline (mean 0.743) for cross-figure consistency with Category A/B results.
Tier 2: scGPT (whole_human) vs Classical Baseline
scGPT-whole_human (12L Transformer, 512d hidden, 8 heads, pretrained on 33M human CellXGene cells) fine-tuned on mouse bulk RNA-seq LOMO folds via ENSMUSG→human gene symbol ortholog mapping. Training: 10 epochs, batch=8, lr=1e-4, freeze=10/12 layers (flash_attn disabled for PyTorch 2.1 compatibility).
Note on reliability: Folds with n_test ≤ 8 (MHU-1 thymus, RR-9 gastro) produce highly variable AUROC estimates and should be interpreted with caution. Large-n folds (RR-8 liver n=103, RR-7 kidney n=94, RR-7 skin n=30) are most reliable.
| Task | Tissue | scGPT AUROC | Geneformer AUROC | Baseline AUROC | Δ vs GF | Δ vs Baseline | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1 | Liver | 0.628 ± 0.283 | 0.486 | 0.588 | +0.142 | +0.040 | scGPT |
| A2 | Gastrocnemius | 0.685 ± 0.305 | 0.432 | 0.801 | +0.253 | -0.116 | Baseline |
| A3 | Kidney | 0.556 ± 0.195 | 0.432 | 0.538 | +0.124 | +0.018 | scGPT |
| A4 | Thymus | 0.782 ± 0.172 | 0.476 | 0.923 | +0.306 | -0.141 | Baseline |
| A5 | Skin | 0.691 ± 0.050 | 0.532 | 0.821 | +0.159 | -0.130 | Baseline |
| A6 | Eye | 0.650 ± 0.141 | 0.478 | 0.789 | +0.172 | -0.139 | Baseline |
| Mean | 6 tissues | 0.666 | 0.476 | 0.758 | +0.190 | -0.092 | Baseline |
Interpretation: Classical ML wins 5/6 tissues vs scGPT (sign test p=0.109, ns). scGPT outperforms Geneformer by +0.190 AUROC across all tissues, suggesting human-pretrained 12L transformer captures more transferable features than mouse-specific 6L BERT. However, both FMs remain below classical ML baseline (scGPT: -0.092, Geneformer: -0.283), confirming that pretrained single-cell FMs do not transfer reliably to small-n bulk transcriptomics. The performance gap narrows but does not close: Classical ML 6/6 > both FMs.
Key observation: scGPT shows higher variance (std=0.05–0.31) than Geneformer (std=0.05–0.23), partly reflecting ortholog mapping noise from human pretraining. Large-n reliable folds (liver RR-8 n=103: 0.468; kidney RR-7 n=94: 0.557; skin n=30–39: 0.636–0.737) suggest scGPT hovers near chance (0.5) on the most statistically robust estimates.
Results file: evaluation/scgpt_whole_human_all_tissues_summary.json
Held-Out Evaluation: A4 Thymus (OSD-515 / RR-23)
Reserved held-out test set for external benchmark evaluation. Train on 4 missions (MHU-1, MHU-2, RR-6, RR-9; n=67), test on RR-23 (n=16: 7 Flight, 9 GC). 27,541 common genes.
| Model | AUROC | 95% CI | p-value |
|---|---|---|---|
| LR ElasticNet | 0.905 | [0.672, 1.000] | 0.005 |
| Random Forest | 0.905 | [0.672, 1.000] | 0.007 |
| PCA-50 + LogReg | 0.873 | [0.609, 1.000] | 0.011 |
| Geneformer (Mouse-GF) | 0.556 | [0.265, 0.850] | — |
Interpretation: Classical baselines achieve strong held-out performance (AUROC ~0.90, p<0.01), confirming thymus cross-mission generalization beyond LOMO. Geneformer remains near chance on held-out data, consistent with LOMO results (0.495). The held-out confirms thymus as the most robust tissue for spaceflight detection.
Tier 3: LLM Zero-Shot Classification
Three LLMs tested on zero-shot text-based spaceflight detection (no training, gene expression → text prompt → binary prediction).
| Model | A1 Liver | A2 Gastro | A3 Kidney | A4 Thymus | A5 Skin | A6 Eye | Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCA-LR (ref) | 0.670 | 0.824 | 0.432 | 0.923 | 0.821 | 0.789 | 0.743 |
| DeepSeek-V3 | 0.435 | 0.514 | 0.495 | 0.421 | 0.467 | 0.492 | 0.471 |
| Gemini-2.5-Flash | 0.523 | 0.438 | 0.494 | 0.602 | 0.580 | 0.393 | 0.505 |
| Llama-3.3-70B | 0.527 | 0.544 | 0.440 | 0.533 | 0.451 | 0.407 | 0.484 |
Interpretation: All 3 LLMs perform at chance level (mean 0.47–0.51). Text-based reasoning cannot replace numerical ML for transcriptomics classification. Protein-coding gene filter was applied to reduce prompt noise.
Multi-DB Pathway Comparison (LOMO, PCA-LR)
| Tissue | Hallmark | KEGG | Reactome | MitoCarta | Best DB | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thymus | 0.879 | 0.899 | 0.922 | 0.846 | Reactome | 0.076 |
| Gastro | 0.688 | 0.713 | 0.755 | 0.627 | Reactome | 0.128 |
| Skin | 0.690 | 0.754 | 0.693 | 0.542 | KEGG | 0.212 |
| Eye | 0.915 | 0.625 | 0.658 | 0.478 | Hallmark | 0.437 |
| Liver | 0.574 | 0.639 | 0.614 | 0.555 | KEGG | 0.084 |
| Kidney | 0.743 | 0.665 | 0.779 | 0.641 | Reactome | 0.138 |
Key findings:
- DB choice > model choice (AUROC range up to 0.437 for Eye)
- No single DB dominates: Reactome best for 3 tissues, KEGG for 2, Hallmark for 1
- MitoCarta consistently worst (specialized → low coverage)
Temporal & Biological Covariates
T1: ISS-T vs LAR Sacrifice Timing
Question: Can sacrifice timing (ISS-Terminal vs Live Animal Return) be detected from transcriptomics?
Confound warning (DD-18): ISS-T = RNAlater on-orbit, LAR = standard necropsy. Preservation method confounds biological timing.
| Sub-task | Condition | Gene AUROC | Pathway AUROC | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1a RR-6 liver | FLT | 1.000 | 0.960 | 20 |
| GC (baseline) | 0.922 | 0.778 | 19 | |
| T1b RR-8 liver | FLT | 0.930 | 0.920 | 35 |
| GC (baseline) | 0.973 | 0.993 | 35 | |
| T1c RR-6 thymus | FLT | 0.857 | 0.714 NS | 17 |
| GC (baseline) | 0.925 | 1.000 | 18 |
Verdict: GC AUROC ≥ FLT AUROC in most cases → ISS-T vs LAR difference dominated by preservation artifact, not biological timing. Cross-mission transfer (T1d) confirms: artifact is consistent across RR-6↔RR-8 (FLT gene AUROC 0.97–0.99, GC gene 0.84–0.96).
T2: LAR Recovery Signature
| Mission | PCA Recovery R | Pathways Recovering | FLT_LAR flight_prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| RR-6 | 0.842 (partial) | 12/26 | 0.185 (strong) |
| RR-8 | 0.652 (stronger) | 25/27 (overshoot) | 0.404 (moderate) |
RR-8 shows strong recovery with overshoot past baseline (MYC targets V1 +2.49, Protein secretion +2.14). RR-6 shows immune rebound (IFN-α -2.36, Inflammatory -2.54).
T3: Age × Spaceflight Interaction (RR-8 Liver)
| Comparison | Gene AUROC | Pathway AUROC | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| T3a: Overall OLD vs YNG | 0.985 | 0.851 | 141 |
| T3d: Spaceflight in OLD | 0.945 [0.846, 1.00] | 0.879 | 34 |
| T3d: Spaceflight in YNG | 0.679 [0.479, 0.86] | 0.716 | 36 |
| Delta (OLD - YNG) | +0.266 | +0.163 | — |
Verdict: "Spaceflight amplifies aging" SUPPORTED (Δ=+0.266). T3c ANOVA: 0/50 significant Age×Spaceflight interactions at FDR<0.05 (underpowered, n=10/cell).
J2: DGE Pipeline Comparison
Question: Does the choice of DGE pipeline (DESeq2 vs edgeR vs limma-voom) affect downstream results?
Scope: 9 missions (6 liver + 3 thymus) × 3 pipelines = 27 DGE runs. Skin excluded (RR-7 has no raw counts).
| Metric | Mean | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|
| Log2FC Spearman | 0.926 | 0.790 | 1.000 |
| Log2FC Pearson | 0.895 | 0.706 | 1.000 |
| DEG Jaccard (FDR<0.05) | 0.600 | 0.000 | 1.000 |
| GeneLab Replication | 0.707 | — | 9 missions |
Key findings:
- Fold-change rankings are highly conserved across all three pipelines (Spearman 0.926)
- DEG list overlap varies by pipeline stringency: limma-voom most liberal, edgeR most conservative
- RR-3 liver: 0 DEGs across all pipelines (n=6+6, true biological null — GeneLab also found only 1 DEG)
- RR-1 edgeR: 0 DEGs due to conservative multiple testing correction, but log2FC correlation >0.95 with DESeq2
- GeneLab replication (our binary FLT-vs-GC vs GeneLab's multi-level contrasts): moderate agreement (Spearman 0.707) reflects different design matrices, not pipeline error
Verdict: Rankings consistent, DEG lists vary by stringency threshold. Pipeline choice has moderate impact on DEG calls but minimal impact on gene-level effect size rankings — consistent with J1 (pipeline version comparison).
Held-Out Evaluation: A5 Skin (OSD-254 / RR-7)
Second held-out test set. Train on 2 missions (RR-6, MHU-2; n=72), test on RR-7 (n=30: 10 Flight, 20 GC). 20,110 common genes. RR-7 is a 75-day mission (longest in skin dataset).
| Model | AUROC | 95% CI | p-value |
|---|---|---|---|
| LR ElasticNet | 0.885 | [0.745, 0.986] | <0.001 |
| PCA-50 + LogReg | 0.840 | [0.679, 0.963] | 0.001 |
| Random Forest | 0.777 | [0.583, 0.929] | 0.007 |
Cross-Tissue Held-Out Comparison:
| Tissue | Mission | Duration | Best AUROC | n_test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thymus | RR-23 | 30 days | 0.905 (LR) | 16 |
| Skin | RR-7 | 75 days | 0.885 (LR) | 30 |
Interpretation: Skin held-out confirms strong generalization (AUROC 0.885, p<0.001), exceeding the LOMO mean (0.821). Both held-out tissues achieve AUROC > 0.85, validating cross-mission spaceflight detection beyond leave-one-out evaluation.
Pipeline Status
| Component | Files | Status |
|---|---|---|
| fGSEA | 80 (6 tissues × missions × 4 DBs incl. MitoCarta) | Complete |
| GSVA | 88 (6 tissues × missions × 4 DBs, skin+thymus MHU-1) | Complete |
| Category A | 6 tissues, PCA-LR LOMO | Complete |
| Category B | 6 tissues, bootstrap CI + permutation | Complete |
| Category C | 4 pairs × 3 methods | Complete |
| Category D | D3 + D4 + D5×2 + D6×2 (6 tasks) | Complete |
| J5 | 15 comparisons | Complete |
| NES Conservation | 6 tissues × 4 DBs | Complete |
| Multi-DB LOMO | 24 runs (6 tissues × 4 DBs) | Complete |
| NC1/NC2 | Permutation + housekeeping controls | Complete |
| Cell 2020 | 5 tissues pathway validation | Complete |
| Geneformer | 6 tissues, 22 LOMO folds (Mouse-GF) | Complete |
| scGPT | 6 tissues, 21 LOMO folds (whole_human), mean AUROC=0.666 | Complete |
| LLM Zero-Shot | 3 providers × 6 tasks (18 evals) | Complete |
| Held-Out | A4 Thymus (RR-23) + A5 Skin (RR-7) | Complete |
| T1-T3 Temporal | ISS-T/LAR, Recovery, Age×Spaceflight | Complete |
| J2 DGE Pipeline | 9 missions × 3 pipelines (DESeq2/edgeR/limma-voom) | Complete |
| v1 Figures | 4 main + 4 supplementary (HTML/SVG) | Complete |
| v2 E1-E3 | Cross-species NES, duration effect, cfRNA origin | Complete |
| v2 F1 | I4 PBMC cell-type fGSEA (10 types × 50 pathways) | Complete |
| v2 Figures | 3 integrated main figures (D3.js v7) | Complete |
| RRRM-1 scRNA | 4 tissues (blood/eye/muscle/skin), 38K cells, annotated | Complete |
v3 Results Summary
Foundation Model Comparison (7 tissues)
| Model | Liver | Gastro | Kidney | Thymus | Eye | Lung | Colon | Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCA-LR | 0.670 | 0.824 | 0.432 | 0.923 | 0.789 | — | — | 0.758 |
| scGPT | 0.628 | 0.685 | 0.556 | 0.782 | 0.650 | — | — | 0.667 |
| scFoundation | 0.635** | 0.691* | 0.541 | 0.487 | 0.563 | 0.389 | 0.755 | ~0.58 |
| UCE (seeded) | 0.459 | 0.578 | 0.489 | 0.632* | 0.550 | 0.555 | 0.449 | ~0.53 |
| Geneformer | 0.486 | 0.382 | 0.452 | 0.495 | 0.484 | — | — | 0.476 |
*p<0.05, **p<0.01. All FMs underperform PCA-LR baseline.
RRRM-2 scRNA-seq (F5)
| Tissue | Best Cell Type | AUROC | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|
| PBMC | NK cell | 0.845* | p<0.001 |
| PBMC | T cell | 0.752* | p<0.001 |
| Spleen | B cell | 0.562*** | p<0.001 |
| Bone marrow | All 14 types | 0.27-0.54 | No signal |
Spatial Visium (F3, Brain OSD-352)
- Negative result: Section AUROC=0.139, Animal AUROC=0.444
- PC1 (42.5%) = slide batch effect, not spaceflight condition
- Brain = genuine negative for spaceflight classification
Cross-Tissue Transfer (B_ext, 7x7 = 42 pairs)
- Method A (gene) range: 0.35-0.80, liver->kidney best (0.73)
- Method C (pathway) range: 0.43-0.87, liver->gastro best (0.87)
v4 Pipeline Status
| Component | Status |
|---|---|
| Phase 1: 256 evaluations (8 tissues × 8 methods × 4 features) | Complete |
| Phase 2: Ablation studies (569 evals: feature count, PCA dims, sample size, bootstrap) | Complete |
| Phase 3: Friedman LOMO-6 meta-analysis (chi2=17.333, p=0.015) | Complete |
| Phase 4: SHAP multi-method interpretability | Complete |
| Phase 5: Python WGCNA (6 tissues), module preservation, STRING PPI enrichment | Complete |
| Phase 7: Publication figures (6 main + 5 supplementary HTML) | Complete |
| Phase 8: Manuscript preparation | In Progress |
v5 Biological Interpretation
Immune Deconvolution (mMCP-counter, 8 tissues)
| Tissue | Significant Cell Types (FDR<0.05) | Strongest Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Skin | 6/14 | Fibroblasts↑FLT, NK cells↑FLT |
| Kidney | 2/14 | — |
| Thymus | 2/14 | — |
| Liver, Gastro, Eye, Lung, Colon | 0/14 | No signal |
Direction convention: positive Cliff's delta = higher in Flight vs. Ground.
Cross-Organ Signaling (OmniPath)
- 111 intercell-filtered ligand–receptor pairs (9 strict, 102 broad)
- 1 SHAP-active L–R pair identified
- TF activity (CollecTRI + decoupler ULM): thymus 240 sig, skin 241, kidney 177, liver 105
Metabolic Flux (iMM1865 E-Flux + pFBA)
| Tissue | FLT objective | GC objective | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thymus | 15,695 | 14,696 | 999 (largest) |
| Liver | 16,510 | 16,110 | 400 |
| Gastrocnemius | — | — | varies |
| Kidney, Eye, Skin | — | — | varies |
E-Flux normalized to [0,1] range; pFBA used to resolve LP degeneracy.
Drug Target Mapping (DGIdb v5 + ChEMBL)
- 834 WGCNA/SHAP consensus spaceflight genes → mouse→human ortholog mapping
- 271/834 (32.5%) human orthologs have known drug interactions (DGIdb)
- 1,284 FDA-approved drug–gene interactions (Tier 1)
- 200 investigational drug–gene interactions (Tier 3)
- Thymus most druggable tissue (24.8%); 45 WGCNA modules enriched
Consensus Biomarker Panel (20 genes)
Scoring: SHAP rank (0–4) + WGCNA module membership (0–3) + multi-tissue (0–2) + druggability (0–1) + statistical significance (0–2)
| Top Genes | Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| MUP22 | 5 | Liver/skin WGCNA hub, SHAP top |
| Thrsp / THRSP | 5 | Metabolic hub |
| Apoa1 | 5 | Liver SHAP + WGCNA |
| NPAS2 | 4 | Circadian clock, gastro+skin modules |
| PER2 | 4 | Circadian clock |
Panel validation AUROC: gastro 0.806, liver 0.754, eye 0.728, colon 0.75, skin 0.70