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Chain-of-Thought as Sequential Conditional Probability Constriction

Author

Kevin T.N
Email: jkdkr2439@gmail.com


What is this?

This repository contains a theoretical / mathematical interpretation of Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting for large language models.

Instead of treating CoT as:

  • "reasoning"
  • "thinking step by step"
  • or a cognitive mechanism

this work formalizes CoT as:

A sequential conditional probability constriction process,
where each intermediate token re-conditions the model distribution,
progressively narrowing entropy and steering probability mass.

In short:

  • CoT does not add intelligence
  • It reshapes how probability is conditioned and sampled

Who is this for?

This work may be useful if you are:

  • A researcher working on LLM interpretability
  • Interested in reasoning vs. probability steering
  • Designing prompting, inference, or sampling strategies
  • Thinking about CoT, ToT, ReAct from a theoretical / information-theoretic angle

This is not:

  • a benchmark paper
  • a performance hack
  • a production recipe

It is a conceptual tool.


How to use this work

You are encouraged to:

  • Reuse the mathematical framing
  • Adapt the notation to your own context
  • Extend it with:
    • Bayesian inference
    • filtering / particle methods
    • causal or SCM analysis
    • empirical validation

If you find it useful:

  • Please credit or shout out the author (Kevin T.N)
  • You do not need permission
  • You should adapt and update it to your own framing

This work is intentionally open and unfinished.


Citation / Attribution (informal)

If you reference this idea in writing or discussion, a simple attribution is enough:

“Based on a probabilistic interpretation of Chain-of-Thought as sequential conditional distribution constriction by Kevin T.N.”

Formal citation is optional.


License

This project is released under the MIT License.

You are free to:

  • use
  • copy
  • modify
  • merge
  • publish
  • distribute
  • sublicense

with no warranty, as long as the license notice is included.


MIT License

MIT License

Copyright (c) 2026 Kevin T.N

Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:

The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all copies or substantial portions of the Software.

THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM, OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE SOFTWARE.

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