text stringlengths 1 711 |
|---|
Source: Company reports, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan estimates.; *CL North America ex-Pet but U.S. includes Pet |
Beyond HLN, CL, and PG, we also compare KVUE to additional companies with |
exposure to the Consumer Health space and also a broader basket of HPC and Beauty |
companies given KVUEs presence in the face care, body care, and sun care categories |
as well as baby care. KVUE sales growth and margin outlook are largely comparable |
across the Consumer Health and HPC & Beauty peers on average (e.g., HPC & Beauty |
weighted average 2023-2024E sales CAGR +5.1% with 2023E EBITDA margins |
~23.2% and Consumer Health weighted-average 2023-2024E sales CAGR +3.1% with |
2023E EBITDA margins ~25.4% vs. KVUE 2023-2024E sales CAGR +4.4% with |
2023E EBITDA margins 24.2%). |
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of DAVID WANG at MARLOWE PARTNERS LP. |
36 |
Andrea Teixeira, CFA AC |
(1-212) 622-6735 |
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com |
North America Equity Research |
29 May 2023 J P M O R G A N |
Table 3: Comparable Analysis for KVUE |
JPM JPM Price (LC) Dividend Market Cap |
Enterprise |
Value |
Company Ticker Analyst Rating 5/26/2023 Yield (USD mn) (USD mn) 2022 2023E 2024E 1-yr 2-yr 5-yr |
Consumer Health |
Beiersdorf BEI GR Pannuti N 123.90 112 0.6% 33,471 25,316 17.1x 14.9x 13.8x 14.8x 14.7x 15.1x |
Bayer BAYN GR Vosser N 54.32 60 4.4% 57,208 95,239 6.6x 7.2x 6.7x 6.7x 6.9x 7.6x |
Haleon HLN LN Pannuti UW 3.30 3 0.7% 37,617 49,816 14.8x 14.0x 13.3x 12.9x 12.9x 12.9x |
Reckitt Benckiser Group RKT LN Pannuti OW 64.16 75 2.9% 56,731 66,275 14.0x 13.4x 12.7x 13.2x 13.9x 14.6x |
Sanofi SAN FP Vosser OW 99.40 105 3.6% 134,490 141,743 9.0x 9.0x 8.5x 8.6x 9.1x 9.8x |
Unilever ULVR LN Pannuti UW 41.69 39 3.6% 129,635 159,456 13.0x 12.8x 12.0x 12.5x 12.5x 13.3x |
AVERAGE 12.4x 11.9x 11.2x 11.4x 11.7x 12.2x |
WTD. AVERAGE 11.6x 11.3x 10.6x 10.9x 11.1x 11.8x |
MEDIAN 13.5x 13.1x 12.3x 12.7x 12.7x 13.1x |
HPC & Beauty |
Colgate-Palmolive CL Teixeira OW 76.21 87 2.5% 63,221 71,538 16.9x 15.8x 14.7x 15.8x 15.8x 15.5x |
Procter & Gamble PG Teixeira OW 145.40 168 2.6% 342,703 389,376 19.1x 17.8x 16.7x 16.9x 17.2x 16.4x |
Church & Dwight CHD Teixeira UW 93.97 86 1.2% 22,953 25,616 20.8x 19.4x 18.3x 17.3x 18.1x 18.2x |
Kimberly-Clark KMB Teixeira UW 136.30 139 3.5% 45,985 54,237 16.6x 14.4x 13.4x 14.0x 13.8x 12.8x |
Clorox CLX Teixeira UW 159.09 158 3.0% 19,667 22,617 24.9x 32.2x 17.2x 18.5x 18.1x 17.4x |
Newell Brands NWL Teixeira OW 8.73 14 3.2% 3,615 9,596 7.7x 9.0x 7.9x 9.0x 9.4x 10.3x |
Estee Lauder EL Teixeira OW 194.44 224 1.4% 69,495 74,877 23.1x 29.9x 19.7x 21.3x 23.0x 21.5x |
e.l.f. ELF Teixeira OW 101.28 102 N/A 5,456 5,596 51.6x 39.5x 34.6x 26.1x 23.2x 19.6x |
L'Oreal OR FP Pannuti N 411.00 400 1.5% 236,141 239,811 24.9x 22.8x 21.0x 20.4x 22.6x 21.2x |
Olaplex OLPX Teixeira UW 3.29 5 N/A 2,153 2,546 5.9x 9.4x 8.4x 12.4x 18.2x 18.2x |
Reynolds Consumer Products REYN Teixeira OW 27.11 31 3.4% 5,693 7,778 14.2x 12.6x 11.6x 12.4x 12.4x 12.2x |
Coty COTY Teixeira N 11.03 12 N/A 9,406 14,318 15.2x 14.1x 13.0x 12.4x 13.2x 12.6x |
AVERAGE 20.1x 19.7x 16.4x 16.4x 17.1x 16.3x |
WTD. AVERAGE 21.0x 20.3x 17.9x 18.0x 18.9x 17.9x |
MEDIAN 18.0x 16.8x 15.7x 16.4x 17.6x 16.9x |
Kevnue KVUE Teixeira OW 26.30 29.00 3.0% 50,362 58,714 16.3x 15.5x 14.7x -- -- -- |
JPM JPM Price (LC) |
Company Ticker Analyst Rating 5/26/2023 2022 2023E 2024E 1-yr 2-yr 5-yr 2022 2023E 2024E |
Consumer Health |
Beiersdorf BEI GR Pannuti N 123.90 112 33.9x 31.6x 28.7x 28.6x 29.0x 28.8x 0.9% 2.6% 2.7% |
Bayer BAYN GR Vosser N 54.32 60 6.8x 7.7x 7.1x 7.1x 7.4x 8.4x 5.8% 7.1% 11.1% |
Haleon HLN LN Pannuti UW 3.30 3 17.9x 18.3x 16.9x 16.0x 16.0x 16.0x 5.3% 5.0% 5.7% |
Reckitt Benckiser Group RKT LN Pannuti OW 64.16 75 18.8x 18.8x 17.4x 17.7x 18.6x 19.2x 4.4% 5.4% 6.1% |
Sanofi SAN FP Vosser OW 99.40 105 12.0x 12.1x 11.2x 11.0x 11.8x 12.6x 6.6% 6.6% 7.6% |
Unilever ULVR LN Pannuti UW 41.69 39 16.2x 16.4x 15.2x 17.7x 17.7x 18.7x 5.3% 6.3% 6.7% |
AVERAGE 17.6x 17.5x 16.1x 16.4x 16.8x 17.3x 4.7% 5.5% 6.6% |
WTD. AVERAGE 15.6x 15.6x 14.4x 15.0x 15.4x 16.2x 5.3% 6.0% 7.1% |
HPC & Beauty |
Colgate-Palmolive CL Teixeira OW 76.21 87 25.7x 24.3x 22.2x 24.0x 23.8x 23.5x 2.9% 4.0% 4.5% |
Procter & Gamble PG Teixeira OW 145.40 168 25.5x 23.9x 21.9x 23.5x 23.9x 23.0x 3.4% 4.5% 4.7% |
Church & Dwight CHD Teixeira UW 93.97 86 31.6x 30.2x 27.9x 26.7x 27.7x 27.4x 3.1% 3.0% 3.7% |
Kimberly-Clark KMB Teixeira UW 136.30 139 24.2x 21.8x 19.6x 20.9x 20.3x 18.9x 4.0% 4.5% 4.9% |
Clorox CLX Teixeira UW 159.09 158 38.3x 30.2x 26.3x 30.4x 28.7x 26.3x 3.7% 3.9% 4.4% |
Newell Brands NWL Teixeira OW 8.73 14 5.6x 9.0x 6.8x 10.0x 11.3x 11.4x -16.2% 12.3% 15.9% |
Estee Lauder EL Teixeira OW 194.44 224 37.2x 56.6x 32.9x 35.0x 37.5x 35.2x 1.4% 1.7% 3.5% |
e.l.f. ELF Teixeira OW 101.28 102 74.5x 53.4x 51.4x 44.2x 40.4x 36.0x 1.4% 1.8% 2.3% |
L'Oreal OR FP Pannuti N 411.00 400 36.5x 34.2x 31.3x 31.2x 35.5x 33.6x 2.2% 3.1% 3.3% |
Olaplex OLPX Teixeira UW 3.29 5 7.3x 12.9x 10.9x 17.2x 26.1x 26.1x 11.8% 11.6% 10.4% |
Reynolds Consumer Products REYN Teixeira OW 27.11 31 21.2x 20.2x 17.6x 18.7x 17.6x 16.9x 1.6% 6.8% 5.6% |
Coty COTY Teixeira N 11.03 12 31.5x 20.1x 22.6x 23.2x 28.4x 24.2x 4.8% 3.6% 5.7% |
AVERAGE 29.9x 28.1x 24.3x 25.4x 26.8x 25.2x 2.0% 5.1% 5.7% |
WTD. AVERAGE 30.3x 29.9x 25.8x 26.8x 28.4x 27.1x 2.8% 3.8% 4.2% |
MEDIAN 28.6x 24.1x 22.4x 23.7x 26.9x 25.2x 3.0% 3.9% 4.6% |
Kevnue KVUE Teixeira OW 26.30 29.00 22.3x 23.8x 23.1x -- -- -- 4.0% 4.8% 4.9% |
JPM Price |
Target |
EV/EBITDA |
JPM Price |
Target |
P/E Hist. FwdP /E Avg. FCF Yield |
Hist. Fwd EV/EBITDA Avg. |
Source: Company reports, Bloomberg Finance L.P., and J.P. Morgan estimates. |
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of DAVID WANG at MARLOWE PARTNERS LP. |
37 |
Andrea Teixeira, CFA AC |
(1-212) 622-6735 |
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com |
North America Equity Research |
29 May 2023 J P M O R G A N |
Price Target Derivation |
We see investors gravitating toward EV/EBITDA to inform valuation for KVUE given |
that the companys treatment of amortization of definite life intangible assets will make |
P/E less comparable to peers based on what the company will report as its adjusted |
earnings, although we will also present an EPS including amortization of definite life |
intangibles to make the comparison more apples to apples. We also added a discounted |
cash flow valuation to where the stock could trade over the medium to longer term as |
the company continues to execute against its growth priorities and improves margins. |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.