johnsone/initiation · Datasets at Hugging Face

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Figure 85: Household Penetration - Digestive Remedies
52W-period ending 5/5/19, 5/3/20, 5/2/21, 5/1/22 and 4/30/23
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Private Label 54.7% 56.6% 54.4% 55.0% 53.6%
Tums 19.2% 21.2% 21.2% 21.8% 20.9%
Pepto-Bismol 12.1% 13.3% 13.1% 15.3% 15.2%
Dulcolax 6.9% 7.3% 8.4% 9.1% 9.6%
Miralax 7.4% 6.6% 7.3% 8.6% 8.2%
Imodium 6.2% 6.1% 5.3% 6.8% 6.5%
Alka-Seltzer 6.7% 7.0% 8.1% 7.1% 5.9%
Pepcid 2.5% 3.8% 4.6% 5.0% 4.3%
Source: Numerator, J.P. Morgan
Figure 86: Household Penetration - Mouthwash
52W-period ending 5/5/19, 5/3/20, 5/2/21, 5/1/22 and 4/30/23
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Listerine 32.1% 33.0% 32.3% 31.9% 28.9%
Crest 21.8% 23.6% 23.4% 24.4% 23.0%
Private Label 24.9% 25.2% 23.7% 21.6% 20.1%
ACT (Oral Care) 9.0% 9.1% 8.7% 8.0% 8.3%
Colgate 9.7% 8.4% 7.1% 7.0% 5.8%
TheraBreath 1.3% 1.5% 3.0% 3.4% 4.9%
Source: Numerator, J.P. Morgan
Figure 87: Household Penetration - Sun Care
52W-period ending 5/5/19, 5/3/20, 5/2/21, 5/1/22 and 4/30/23
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Banana Boat 19.8% 19.3% 17.7% 21.4% 21.7%
Private Label 22.3% 21.2% 19.3% 20.4% 19.7%
Coppertone 15.6% 14.0% 13.1% 15.2% 15.5%
Neutrogena 13.9% 13.7% 15.0% 14.4% 15.2%
Jergens 5.4% 5.3% 4.7% 5.6% 5.4%
CeraVe 1.8% 2.0% 2.8% 3.3% 5.2%
Aveeno 2.8% 2.6% 3.3% 2.8% 2.2%
L'Oreal Paris 1.7% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5%
Source: Numerator, J.P. Morgan
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of DAVID WANG at MARLOWE PARTNERS LP.
58
Andrea Teixeira, CFA AC
(1-212) 622-6735
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
North America Equity Research
29 May 2023 J P M O R G A N
Figure 88: Household Penetration - Body Care
52W-period ending 5/5/19, 5/3/20, 5/2/21, 5/1/22 and 4/30/23
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Gold Bond 14.6% 14.7% 14.6% 15.2% 14.5%
Bath & Body Works 22.3% 22.0% 19.1% 20.0% 14.1%
Private Label 19.2% 17.8% 15.6% 13.9% 13.1%
Vaseline 11.9% 11.8% 12.6% 12.3% 12.4%
Nivea 11.4% 12.5% 13.4% 12.9% 11.6%
Aveeno 11.2% 11.2% 11.7% 11.0% 11.4%
CeraVe 4.7% 5.9% 8.9% 10.4% 11.1%
Eucerin 6.0% 6.7% 7.3% 7.8% 6.8%
Olay 1.3% 1.4% 1.8% 1.9% 2.2%
Neutrogena 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 1.8%
Source: Numerator, J.P. Morgan
Figure 89: Household Penetration - Face Care
52W-period ending 5/5/19, 5/3/20, 5/2/21, 5/1/22 and 4/30/23
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Private Label 39.4% 41.0% 36.3% 34.5% 32.9%
Neutrogena 28.7% 28.5% 27.5% 27.5% 25.6%
CeraVe 3.9% 5.3% 11.0% 13.6% 15.4%
Cetaphil 7.9% 9.1% 10.4% 11.1% 10.6%
L'Oreal Paris 8.8% 8.4% 8.8% 7.6% 7.9%
Clean & Clear 14.5% 13.2% 11.1% 10.1% 7.1%
Aveeno 6.6% 6.0% 6.1% 6.4% 4.8%
Source: Numerator, J.P. Morgan
Market Share Improving in the U.S. Based on Tracked Channels
We carried out an in-depth analysis of some of KVUE􀋖s pertinent categories using
tracked channel data (NielsenIQ) to gauge how the company􀋖s market performance
(value and volume share as well as price) evolved over time, specifically in the U.S.
However, base period dynamics limit the degree of read-through from tracked channel
data. We carried out a YOY analysis of the recent NielsenIQ data available (ending
5/6/23) and also analyzed YOY data as of 12/31/22 (we will refer to this as prior yearend
or 􀋘PYE􀋙) to see how KVUE categories performed YTD as well as YOY data as of
5/7/22 (we will refer to this as prior-year or 􀋘PY􀋙) to see how KVUE performed in the
categories from a year ago (as of 5/6/23). These additional charts for PY and PYE are
added to the appendix for reference. Below we elaborate more on our findings.
In the four-week period ending May 6, KVUE posted modest positive dollar share
performance (+15 bps vs. -45 bps in the four-week period ending 12/31/22 or 􀋘PYE􀋙
and -152 bps four-week period ending 5/7/22) as the company gained dollar share in 11
out of 19 categories (vs. eight categories as of PYE and six categories as of PY – both
out of 19 categories) that we track for the company. As we show in the table below, the
largest share gains occurred in antiseptic (+456 bps vs. +418 bps as of PYE and +558
bps as of PY) and baby bath (+408 bps vs. losing -18 bps as of PYE and -645 bps as of
PY), besides the outsized growth in baby powder (+1,138 bps vs. losing -107 bps as of
PYE and -377 bps as of PY), but this category makes up a very small percentage of
sales in the U.S. as per the tracked channels. Conversely, the largest share loss occurred
in baby lotion (-252 bps vs. -322 as of PYE and -49 bps as of PY) and facial skin care (-
197 bps vs. -266 bps as of PYE and -291 bps as of PY), with more moderate share loss
in cold & flu (-133 bps vs. -113 bps as of PYE but gained +159 bps as of PY). Given
that the 19 categories below account for roughly 78% of KVUE􀋖s sales in the tracked
channels, on a weighted basis, we estimate KVUE gained +15 bps (vs. losing -45 bps as
of PYE and -152 bps as of PY) of overall value share but lost -54 bps (vs. -32 bps as of
PYE and -83 bps as of PY) on a volume share basis in the latest four-week period
ending 5/6/23. KVUE retail price realization was up by ~15%, 15%, and 11% in the last
four, 13, and 52 weeks YOY.
Value Share Improved Sequentially Driven by Pricing as Volume Share
Deteriorated YTD
Sequentially, on a YOY four-week period basis, value share improved, but volume share
appears to have deteriorated YTD, although the metric improved from PY especially as

Figure 85: Household Penetration - Digestive Remedies

52W-period ending 5/5/19, 5/3/20, 5/2/21, 5/1/22 and 4/30/23

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Private Label 54.7% 56.6% 54.4% 55.0% 53.6%

Tums 19.2% 21.2% 21.2% 21.8% 20.9%

Pepto-Bismol 12.1% 13.3% 13.1% 15.3% 15.2%

Dulcolax 6.9% 7.3% 8.4% 9.1% 9.6%

Miralax 7.4% 6.6% 7.3% 8.6% 8.2%

Imodium 6.2% 6.1% 5.3% 6.8% 6.5%

Alka-Seltzer 6.7% 7.0% 8.1% 7.1% 5.9%

Pepcid 2.5% 3.8% 4.6% 5.0% 4.3%

Source: Numerator, J.P. Morgan

Figure 86: Household Penetration - Mouthwash

52W-period ending 5/5/19, 5/3/20, 5/2/21, 5/1/22 and 4/30/23

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Listerine 32.1% 33.0% 32.3% 31.9% 28.9%

Crest 21.8% 23.6% 23.4% 24.4% 23.0%

Private Label 24.9% 25.2% 23.7% 21.6% 20.1%

ACT (Oral Care) 9.0% 9.1% 8.7% 8.0% 8.3%

Colgate 9.7% 8.4% 7.1% 7.0% 5.8%

TheraBreath 1.3% 1.5% 3.0% 3.4% 4.9%

Source: Numerator, J.P. Morgan

Figure 87: Household Penetration - Sun Care

52W-period ending 5/5/19, 5/3/20, 5/2/21, 5/1/22 and 4/30/23

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Banana Boat 19.8% 19.3% 17.7% 21.4% 21.7%

Private Label 22.3% 21.2% 19.3% 20.4% 19.7%

Coppertone 15.6% 14.0% 13.1% 15.2% 15.5%

Neutrogena 13.9% 13.7% 15.0% 14.4% 15.2%

Jergens 5.4% 5.3% 4.7% 5.6% 5.4%

CeraVe 1.8% 2.0% 2.8% 3.3% 5.2%

Aveeno 2.8% 2.6% 3.3% 2.8% 2.2%

L'Oreal Paris 1.7% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5%

Source: Numerator, J.P. Morgan

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of DAVID WANG at MARLOWE PARTNERS LP.

58

Andrea Teixeira, CFA AC

(1-212) 622-6735

andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com

North America Equity Research

29 May 2023 J P M O R G A N

Figure 88: Household Penetration - Body Care

52W-period ending 5/5/19, 5/3/20, 5/2/21, 5/1/22 and 4/30/23

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Gold Bond 14.6% 14.7% 14.6% 15.2% 14.5%

Bath & Body Works 22.3% 22.0% 19.1% 20.0% 14.1%

Private Label 19.2% 17.8% 15.6% 13.9% 13.1%

Vaseline 11.9% 11.8% 12.6% 12.3% 12.4%

Nivea 11.4% 12.5% 13.4% 12.9% 11.6%

Aveeno 11.2% 11.2% 11.7% 11.0% 11.4%

CeraVe 4.7% 5.9% 8.9% 10.4% 11.1%

Eucerin 6.0% 6.7% 7.3% 7.8% 6.8%

Olay 1.3% 1.4% 1.8% 1.9% 2.2%

Neutrogena 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 1.8%

Source: Numerator, J.P. Morgan

Figure 89: Household Penetration - Face Care

52W-period ending 5/5/19, 5/3/20, 5/2/21, 5/1/22 and 4/30/23

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Private Label 39.4% 41.0% 36.3% 34.5% 32.9%

Neutrogena 28.7% 28.5% 27.5% 27.5% 25.6%

CeraVe 3.9% 5.3% 11.0% 13.6% 15.4%

Cetaphil 7.9% 9.1% 10.4% 11.1% 10.6%

L'Oreal Paris 8.8% 8.4% 8.8% 7.6% 7.9%

Clean & Clear 14.5% 13.2% 11.1% 10.1% 7.1%

Aveeno 6.6% 6.0% 6.1% 6.4% 4.8%

Source: Numerator, J.P. Morgan

Market Share Improving in the U.S. Based on Tracked Channels

We carried out an in-depth analysis of some of KVUE􀋖s pertinent categories using

tracked channel data (NielsenIQ) to gauge how the company􀋖s market performance

(value and volume share as well as price) evolved over time, specifically in the U.S.

However, base period dynamics limit the degree of read-through from tracked channel

data. We carried out a YOY analysis of the recent NielsenIQ data available (ending

5/6/23) and also analyzed YOY data as of 12/31/22 (we will refer to this as prior yearend

or 􀋘PYE􀋙) to see how KVUE categories performed YTD as well as YOY data as of

5/7/22 (we will refer to this as prior-year or 􀋘PY􀋙) to see how KVUE performed in the

categories from a year ago (as of 5/6/23). These additional charts for PY and PYE are

added to the appendix for reference. Below we elaborate more on our findings.

In the four-week period ending May 6, KVUE posted modest positive dollar share

performance (+15 bps vs. -45 bps in the four-week period ending 12/31/22 or 􀋘PYE􀋙

and -152 bps four-week period ending 5/7/22) as the company gained dollar share in 11

out of 19 categories (vs. eight categories as of PYE and six categories as of PY – both

out of 19 categories) that we track for the company. As we show in the table below, the

largest share gains occurred in antiseptic (+456 bps vs. +418 bps as of PYE and +558

bps as of PY) and baby bath (+408 bps vs. losing -18 bps as of PYE and -645 bps as of

PY), besides the outsized growth in baby powder (+1,138 bps vs. losing -107 bps as of

PYE and -377 bps as of PY), but this category makes up a very small percentage of

sales in the U.S. as per the tracked channels. Conversely, the largest share loss occurred

in baby lotion (-252 bps vs. -322 as of PYE and -49 bps as of PY) and facial skin care (-

197 bps vs. -266 bps as of PYE and -291 bps as of PY), with more moderate share loss

in cold & flu (-133 bps vs. -113 bps as of PYE but gained +159 bps as of PY). Given

that the 19 categories below account for roughly 78% of KVUE􀋖s sales in the tracked

channels, on a weighted basis, we estimate KVUE gained +15 bps (vs. losing -45 bps as

of PYE and -152 bps as of PY) of overall value share but lost -54 bps (vs. -32 bps as of

PYE and -83 bps as of PY) on a volume share basis in the latest four-week period

ending 5/6/23. KVUE retail price realization was up by ~15%, 15%, and 11% in the last

four, 13, and 52 weeks YOY.

Value Share Improved Sequentially Driven by Pricing as Volume Share

Deteriorated YTD

Sequentially, on a YOY four-week period basis, value share improved, but volume share

appears to have deteriorated YTD, although the metric improved from PY especially as