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This document is being provided for the exclusive use of DAVID WANG at MARLOWE PARTNERS LP.
J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research
29 May 2023
Initiation
Kenvue Overweight
KVUE, KVUE US
(cid:728)No More Tears(cid:729) as Separation from Parent to Price (26 May 23):$26.30
Accelerate Growth, FCF, Dividends; Initiate with OW Price Target (Dec-23):$29.00
We are initiating coverage of Kenvue (NYSE ticker: KVUE) with an OW rating Beverage, Household & Personal
and a Dec 2023 price target of $29 (70/30 mix of peer multiples and DCF). As the Care Products
largest pure-play consumer health company in the world following its separation Andrea Teixeira, CFA AC
from parent Johnson & Johnson (N-rated by Chris Schott), we view KVUE as (1-212) 622-6735
uniquely positioned to benefit from consumer mega trends (self-care, aging). We andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
expect KVUE to deliver resilient growth ahead in large addressable markets (TAM Bloomberg JPMA TEIXEIRA <GO>
~ $369bn) with iconic brands that form strong consumer connections from birth in Drew Levine, CFA
a portfolio spanning cold, flu, pain, allergy, and smoke cessation OTC medicines, (1-212) 622-0374
drew.levine@jpmorgan.com
skincare, mouthwash, baby care, and wound care, among others. As a stand-alone
Shovana Chowdhury
company, we believe Kenvue board and management will be more focused and
(1-212) 270-2184
accountable for the growth and profitability of the business following the
shovana.chowdhury@jpmorgan.com
separation that began in 2019, with significant opportunities to scale in many J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
adjacencies and markets around the world organically and through tuck-in M&A
(would be incremental to our estimates and not needed to meet algorithm).
Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)
• Large Categories That Benefit from Wellness Tailwinds and Sustainable Adj. EBITDA ($ mn)
Growth Momentum, Even after Lapping COVID Tailwinds. With 10 2022A 2023E 2024E
Q1 800 867A 968
iconic brands with sales greater than $400M (Neutrogena, Listerine, Tylenol,
Q2 1,022 940 1,000
Johnson(cid:726)s Baby, Aveeno, Nicorette, Zyrtec, Band-Aid, Stayfree/Carefree, Q3 971 1,007 1,014
OGX) as well as over 37 regional brands, KVUE is poised to offer investors at Q4 812 983 1,001
least ~4-5% three-year CAGR in organic sales (OSG) , in line with top peers. FY 3,606 3,797 3,983
We note that due to supply chain constraints and SKU rationalization, KVUE
Style Exposure
lost share with OSG 3Y CAGR of+3.4% while the broader categories grew
+4.8%. KVUE still holds solid market shares in key categories and markets,
and like OW-rated PG, KVUE is still US-centric, which provides room to
regain share and (cid:728)lift and shift(cid:729) some of the most iconic brands abroad.
• Further Margin Expansion Opportunity. KVUE already delivered
impressive +200/250 bps GM/EBITDA expansions vs. 2019, outperforming
peers and despite cost and supply chain challenges. But we still see see KVUE
generating profit growth ahead of sales growth from 2023-2025 with a three-
year CAGR of +6.1% vs. top-line CAGR of +4.3%, implying EBITDA margin
expansion to 25.4% in 2025 from 24.1% in 2022 (roughly +130 bps expansion)
and 25.3% in 2021.
• Attractive Valuation & Dividend Yield for Best-in-Class Growth
Compounder. We believe KVUE offers upside to investors at current levels
even after rallying from IPO price of $22 on May 3. At our $29 Dec 2023 price
target, KVUE will be valued at ~16x EV/EBITDA 24E, which is
approximately where OW-rated CL trades currently for 2023E (still ~2x
cheaper than PG). As KVUE builds its track record as a public company (if our
estimates for solid quarters ahead materialize) and post-potential distribution
of shares that JNJ owns to current JNJ shareholders, we believe KVUE should
trade with the major-league high-quality multinationals that have defensive
sales, compounding growth, and solid free cash flow conversion.
Sources for: Style Exposure – J.P. Morgan Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy; all other tables are company data and J.P. Morgan estimates.
See page 92 for analyst certification and important disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that
the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision.
www.jpmorganmarkets.com
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation
Investment Thesis
We rate Kenvue (KVUE) Overweight. As the largest pure-play
consumer health company in the world, reaching 1.2 billion
consumers daily, KVUE benefits from participating in large
categories where reliability and performance matter for
consumers. As such, we highlight five KVUE attributes that
underpin our positive view: (1) resilient top-line growth
expected, (2) room for margin expansion, (3) high cash flow
conversion and shareholder-friendly capital allocation, (4)
management has a strong background not only with JNJ but with
YTD 1m 3m 12m other blue-chip CPGs with solid relationships with key
Abs - - - - customers, and (5) attractive valuation.
Rel - - - -
Valuation
Company Data
Despite the strong share performance since the IPO, we view
Shares O/S (mn) 1,935
current valuation as attractive. Our Dec 2023 target price of $29
52-week range ($) 27.80-25.25
Market cap ($ mn) 50,893.83 is based on a blended average of EV/EBITDA (based on blended
Exchange rate 1.00 average of HLN, Consumer Health, HPC & Beauty peers) and
Free float(%) 10.4%
a DCF based on perpetual growth method. We assign a 70%
3M - Avg daily vol (mn) -
3M - Avg daily val ($ mn) - weighting to EV/EBITDA as the primary valuation method
Volatility (90 Day) - embedding 15.1.x EV/EBITDA off our 2024E EBITDA
Index S&P 500
estimate of $4.0B (implies $27 per share) and 30% weighting to
BBG BUY|HOLD|SELL -
DCF as the secondary valuation method embedding $32 per
Key Metrics (FYE Dec)
share. KVUE currently trades at 15.5x our 2023E EBITDA and
$ in millions FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E was priced at the IPO at 13.3x our 2023E EBITDA.
Financial Estimates
Revenue 14,950 15,662 16,289 16,973
Adj. EBITDA 3,606 3,797 3,983 4,308
Adj. EBIT 3,310 3,487 3,648 3,957
Adj. net income 2,589 2,404 2,451 2,693
Adj. EPS 1.34 1.24 1.27 1.39
BBG EPS - - - -
Cashflow from operations 2,407 2,821 2,953 3,268
FCFF 2,032 2,405 2,471 2,763
Margins and Growth
Revenue growth (0.7%) 4.8% 4.0% 4.2%
Total Organic Growth Rate (%) - - - -
Gross margin 55.8% 56.6% 56.7% 57.3%
EBITDA margin 24.1% 24.2% 24.5% 25.4%
EBITDA growth (5.4%) 5.3% 4.9% 8.2%
EBIT margin 22.1% 22.3% 22.4% 23.3%
Net margin 17.3% 15.4% 15.0% 15.9%
Adj. EPS growth (4.5%) (7.1%) 1.9% 9.9%
Ratios
Net debt/EBITDA NM 2.0 1.8 1.7
ROIC - - - -
ROE 13.0% 15.5% 21.6% 22.7%
Valuation
FCFF yield 4.0% 4.7% 4.9% 5.4%
Dividend yield 0.0% 1.5% 3.1% 3.2%
EV/Revenue 3.4 3.8 3.1 3.0
EV/EBITDA 14.0 15.7 12.7 11.8
Adj. P/E 19.7 21.2 20.8 18.9
Source: J.P. Morgan Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy for Performance Drivers; company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P. and J.P. Morgan estimates for all other tables. Note: Price history may not be
complete or exact.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Table Of Contents
Summary of Investment Thesis ........................... 4
Risks to Rating and Price Target........................... 6
Company Description ..................................... 7
Resilient Sales Growth in Large Categories Driven by
Consumer Mega Trends.................................... 8
Growth Strategy Focused on Five Pillars ......................... 10
Balanced Portfolio Shaped through Strategic
Transformation............................................ 12
Self Care (40% of Sales, 53% of OI, OSG +8.6% 3-YR CAGR) ........ 12
Skin Health & Beauty (29% of Sales, 18% of OI, OSG +0.1% 3-YR
CAGR)...................................................... 14
Essential Health (31% of Sales, 28% of OI, OSG +0.9% 3-YR CAGR)... 15
Margin Trajectory Improving Post-Strategic Transformation
and Investments........................................... 18
Financial Outlook.......................................... 22
Path to ~+4% Top Line over Next Few Years with Upside If Elasticities
Hold Up ..................................................... 22
Gross Margins Poised to Improve – Can Return to 2021 Peak by 2025 .. 26
Post-2023 Leverage in Middle of P&L to Help Drive Solid Earnings
Growth ...................................................... 27
Balance Sheet, FCF, CapEx................................... 30
Valuation.................................................. 33
KVUE Deserves Premium to HLN with Potential to Converge to CL Over
Time........................................................ 33
Benchmarking Against Peers – HLN Anchor at Low End, Already at CL
Levels, PG Aspirational ......................................... 34
Price Target Derivation....................................... 37
Most Recent Point of Sales Trends in the U.S. (NielsenIQ).. 41
Key Brands POS Performance in the U.S. ........................ 44
Financial Statements...................................... 49
Income Statement Historical & Estimates......................... 49
Balance Sheet Historical & Estimates............................ 50
Cash Flow Historical & Estimates............................... 51
Strong, Global Management Team......................... 52
Global and U.S. Sales and Market Share Trends............ 53
Global Category Market Share............................. 61
Self Care ................................................. 61
Skin Health & Beauty........................................ 69
Essential Health............................................ 77
U.S. Pricing, Share and Volume by Category - Tracked
Channels.................................................. 86
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Summary of Investment Thesis
Kenvue (KVUE) As the largest pure-play consumer health company in the world, reaching 1.2 billion
Overweight consumers daily, KVUE benefits from participating in large categories where reliability
and performance matter for consumers. As such, we highlight five KVUE attributes that
underpin our positive view: (1) resilient top-line growth, (2) room for margin expansion,
(3) high cash flow conversion and shareholder-friendly capital allocation, (4)
management(cid:726)s strong background not only with JNJ but other blue-chip CPGs with solid
relationships with key customers, and (5) attractive valuation.
• Resilient Top-Line Growth in Large Categories. KVUE has strong leadership in
three main categories (self-care, skin health & beauty, essential health) that
combined represent around $369bn in sales globally. The company boasts a portfolio
of seven #1 global brands and 37 #1 regional brands, with the top 10 brands above
$400M in sales. Based on market data, KVUE(cid:726)s largest brands are Neutrogena,
Listerine, Tylenol, and Johnson(cid:726)s baby. Management expects the categories to grow
at a compounded annual growth rate of 3-4% globally through 2025 and for the
company to drive growth competitive with the market, implying organic growth of
about 4%, which we believe is doable and somewhat conservative. Given the strong
start of 2023 with 11% organic sales growth (OSG) in Q123, we anticipate that
KVUE will grow 6% organically this year, but as the company laps pricing, we
expect it to decelerate (similar to most peers) to ~4% OSG in the following years.
• Accelerating Growth with Innovation, Digital Marketing, Omnichannel
distribution... From an innovation standpoint, KVUE spends about 2.5% of sales on
R&D, introducing products that meet unsolved needs rooted in clinical trials. KVUE
has launched roughly 100 new products per annum over the past several years, and
innovation introduced over the rolling preceding three-year period has accounted for
about $1.5 billion in net sales each year since 2020 (about 10% sales mix). As with
most CPGs, KVUE has been directing more of its marketing spend (~9-10% of
sales) into digital media (about 71% of total in 2022). With that and its increased
relationship with key e-commerce retailers, the company was able to grow its online
sales at a +20% CAGR from 2020 to 2022 to 13% online and double its Skin Health
& Beauty e-commerce sales. In North America, for example, the digital marketing
spend accounted for 73% of total marketing spend in 2022, which was up from 59%
in 2020 and 49% in 2019 and drove a +29% increase in media ROI as of October
2022 and collective 13 points increase in U.S. household penetration from 2019 to
2021.The average consumer review on Amazon is 4.6 stars vs. category of 4.4 ,
including Neutrogena, Aveeno, Lubriderm, and Clean & Clear.
• ….and Through New Product Adjacencies & Introducing Successful Brands in
International Markets. Despite having many #1 positions, many of the sub-
categories are fragmented, as we discuss in the market share analysis later in this
report. For instance, Neutrogena is the #1 facial care brand in the U.S. but still the
#3 facial care brand globally. In the facial cleansing category, Neutrogena is the #3
brand in the U.S. among Hispanics and the #2 brand in the U.S. among Millennials.
It is also the #1 most reviewed brand in the skin care category on Amazon in 2022.
This allows KVUE to build scale behind core priority brands that are not fully
distributed in all markets. While KVUE has presence in 165 markets globally, it
prioritizes eight markets: the U.S. (#1 market), Canada (#3), the U.K. (#5), Germany
(#7), Brazil (#4), India (#6), Japan (#8), and China (#2). We think the company
could follow the CPG playbook of (cid:728)lift-and-shift(cid:729) successful products to additional
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
geographies over time.
• Optionality in M&A as KVUE Evaluates Acquisitions to Enhance Core
Portfolio and Capabilities. The company has undertaken a number of acquisitions
and divestitures over the past seven years with 15 divestitures and 10 acquisitions
since 2016. While not necessary to achieve its growth algorithm, the company plans
to continue looking at M&A opportunities, although it sounds like management is
intent on remaining focused squarely on the consumer health space and would be
looking more for tuck-in vs. transformational M&A. We expect M&A to be focused
on faster growing, premium categories, as has been the case with recent transactions
(e.g., Dr.Ci:Labo and Zarbee(cid:726)s). We do not include M&A in our P&L estimates, but
we do budget around $500M for M&A in cash flow.
• Room for Profitability to Continue to Expand and Lead to Operating Leverage.
We expect the reorganization of brands, lower costs, better availability of key raw
materials (shortage of silicone impacted SH&B division), and supply chain
optimization will lead to better profitability ahead. While there are some
(cid:728)dis-synergies(cid:729) from the separation (e.g., TSAs and TMAs – as we discuss below),
we expect the phasing out of these expenses to become a tailwind to margins. From
an EBITDA perspective, however, we do see KVUE generating profit growth ahead
of sales growth from 2023-2025 with a three-year CAGR of +6.1% vs. top-line
CAGR of +4.3%, implying EBITDA margin expansion to 25.4% in 2025 from
24.1% in 2022 (roughly +130 bps expansion) and 25.3% in 2021. For context,
KVUE has a good track record of 200 bps gross margin and 250 bps EBITDA
expansion in the last three years.
• Reliable Cash Flow (~100% Conversion in 2023-25). We expect KVUE to
deliver>100% FCF conversion (% of adjusted net income) in each of 2023-2025,
and we model for free cash flow to grow at a three-year CAGR of +11% to $2.8
billion in 2025. The free cash flow outlook is supported by solid adjusted EBITDA
growth (as described above) and some tailwind from working capital management
as inventory normalizes following a step-up in 2022 (more below), which more than
offsets cash separation costs expected to be incurred from 2023-2025 (around
$595M post-tax) and some step-up in capital expenditures.
• Best-in-Class Dividend Yield. KVUE dividend policy post-IPO will be a quarterly
dividend of $0.20 per share beginning in 3Q23 (fiscal quarter ending October 1,
2023), which at the current price of $26.30 implies an annualized dividend yield of
about 3.0% (at the IPO price of $22, the annualized dividend yield was closer to
3.6%). Looking ahead, we expect the company to target an annual dividend payout
ratio of around 55-65% (JPMe 2024E 64%), and we model for 3% dividend growth
in both 2023 and 2024 as the company targets moderate growth in dividend per
share.
• Management Has Strong Expertise in Categories, Already Operating
Independently for +3 Years. KVUE has a strong, seasoned management team that
will benefit from continuity as many of the c-level executive ushered in the strategic
transformation beginning in the 2019 time frame through the IPO. Moreover, the
consumer segment largely operated independently within JNJ historically, and as
such, even after the separation, the organization should be well positioned to
continue life as a public company. The management team has around 18 years of
experience in consumer goods and healthcare on average and is a diverse group
including over 58% women and representing nine different nationalities.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Risks to Rating and Price Target
• Execution Risk Tied to the Separation from JNJ. While the separation started in
2019, KVUE has never operated as a stand-alone company, and there is inherent
execution risk tied to the separation from JNJ. The company will operate under
transition services and manufacturing agreements ranging from two to five years,
and there is no guarantee that Kenvue will be able to exit the agreements in a timely
manner in order to drive cost savings. Moreover, Kenvue may be unable to
successfully develop internal systems from an operational, financial, administrative,
or IT perspective as a stand-alone company or may be unable to successfully source
new manufacturing for regulated OTC products that are currently being produced by
JNJ under the TMAs. Currently, the TMA covers certain SKUs of Tylenol, Motrin,
Benadryl, and others that account for less than 10% of KVUE sales.
• Potential Talc Litigation outside North America. Kenvue could be subject to talc-
related litigation outside the U.S. and Canada relating to claims that talc causes
cancer. We note that JNJ released a statement on April 27: (cid:728)As unequivocally and
unambiguously stated, Johnson & Johnson has agreed to retain all the talc-related
liabilities and indemnify Kenvue for any and all costs – arising from litigation in the
United States and Canada.(cid:729) While our understanding is that there are currently only
a few active claims relating to talc outside North America, the company has not
taken any reserves against these claims, and there could be additional lawsuits in the
future exposing KVUE to talc-related liabilities. On April 5, JNJ proposed an $8.9
billion settlement to resolve about 60,000 talc claimants in the U.S.
• Seasonal Factors Could Impact Performance of Some OTC Products. Kenvue(cid:726)s
Self Care business as of 2022 represented 40% of sales and 53% of segment-level
operating income and over the past three years generated 90% of KVUE(cid:726)s organic
growth. The segment has benefitted from tailwinds to its pain relief and cold and
cough businesses from various waves of the COVID-19 pandemic and recent
(cid:728)triple-demic(cid:729) (COVID-19, RSV, flu). Additionally, the company has exposure to
seasonal allergy trends. If upcoming cold, cough, and flu and/or allergy seasons are
more mild than expected, there could be downside risk to estimates.
• Inflation and Supply Chain Volatility May Impact Cost Outlook. As with other
consumer products companies, Kenvue over the past two plus years has had to
navigate significant inflationary cost pressures and a challenging supply chain
environment. Ingredient, packaging, transportation, and labor shortages have
impacted service levels, product availability, and KVUE profitability, and while the
cost and supply chain environment appears to be improving, inflationary cost
pressures persist and the supply chain environment could again worsen.
• Consumer Demand May Weaken in Response to Macroeconomic Environment
or Pricing Actions. While elasticities thus far have held up better than historically
in response to material pricing actions undertaken by the company beginning in
2H22, a deterioration in the macroeconomic environment or higher sensitivity to
incremental pricing actions may dent consumer demand for Kenvue(cid:726)s products. In a
softer macroeconomic environment, consumers may choose to trade down to private
label products or other lower priced branded offerings.
• Distribution of KVUE Shares by JNJ Could Put Pressure on KVUE Share
Price. Following Kenvue(cid:726)s IPO, JNJ still owns approximately 89.6% of KVUE
shares. JNJ intends to effect a tax-free distribution of KVUE shares, which would
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
entail lowering its ownership stake to below 20%. If JNJ decides to pursue a
distribution of its KVUE shares, there could be selling pressure on the stock
depending on the structure of the distribution or discount implied by a share
exchange offering.
Company Description
Kenvue Inc. (KVUE) is the largest pure-play consumer health company in the
world with a history dating back over 135 years and a presence in over 165
countries with an estimated 1.2 billion people utilizing the company(cid:726)s products
daily. Kenvue(cid:726)s portfolio includes a number of iconic brands including Tylenol,
Listerine, Band-Aid, Johnson(cid:726)s, Neutrogena, Aveeno, Zyrtec, and Nicorette, among
others. The company boasts 10 brands that generated over $400 million in annual
net sales in 2022, and seven of its brands hold leading positions across global
categories. All in, Kenvue generated roughly $15 billion in sales and $3.6 billion
EBITDA in 2022. The company operates three segments, Self Care (40% of 2022
sales), Skin Health & Beauty (29% of 2022 sales), and Essential Health (31% of
2022 sales), and by geographic region the company generates roughly 50% of sales
in North America, 21% of sales in Europe, the Middle East & Africa, 21% of sales
in Asia Pacific, and 8% of sales in Latin America. Kenvue owns 25 in-house
manufacturing sites in addition to seven manufacturing sites under transition
manufacturing agreements and employs more than 22,000 people globally.
Prior to its IPO on May 3, 2023, Kenvue operated as the Consumer Health
Business of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and following the offering JNJ holds a
roughly 89.6% stake in the company. J.P. Morgan acted as a lead book-running
manager for Kenvue(cid:726)s initial public offering.
Table 1: EV/EBITDA Valuation vs. Key Comps - Full Table in Valuation Section
EV/EBITDA FCF Yield
Ticker 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E
KVUE 15.5x 14.7x 4.8% 4.9%
HLN 14.0x 13.3x 5.0% 5.7%
PG 17.8x 16.7x 4.5% 4.7%
CL 15.8x 14.7x 4.0% 4.5%
RKT 13.4x 12.7x 5.4% 6.1%
CHD 19.4x 18.3x 3.0% 3.7%
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Figure 1: Select KVUE Brands
Source: Company reports.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Resilient Sales Growth in Large Categories
Driven by Consumer Mega Trends
Kenvue is the largest pure-play company in the Consumer Health sector with 135+
years of history and a portfolio of iconic and trusted brands (science-backed, healthcare
professional recommendations) that many consumers are introduced to at a young age or
when they(cid:726)re most vulnerable (e.g., provided to you when you(cid:726)re not doing well by
someone that cares for you – like for a cut or an illness).
The company(cid:726)s portfolio is split into three segments: Self Care (40% of 2022 sales),
Skin Health & Beauty (29% of 2022 sales), and Essential Health (31% of 2022 sales).
All told, the categories in which KVUE competes represent a $369 billion market
globally that has grown at a three-year CAGR of +4.8% from 2019-2022 (or +3.5%
from 2018-2021 vs. overall CPG sector growth of around +3.1% over the same time
period).
Figure 2: KVUE 2019 Revenue Mix Figure 3: KVUE 2022 Revenue Mix Figure 4: KVUE 2025E Revenue Mix
2019 Self Essential 2022 Self Essential 2025E Self
Essential Care, Health, Care, Health, Care,
Health, 34.2% 33.6% 30.6% 40.3% 28.7% 41.7%
Skin Skin Skin
HealthH &e alth & Health & Health &
Beauty, , Beauty, Beauty,
32.2% 29.1% 29.7%
Source: Company reports. Source: Company reports. Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
Figure 5: KVUE Category Sales Mix Figure 6: KVUE Geographic Sales Mix
% of FY22 Sales % of FY22 Sales
OTHER ESSENTIAL COUGH, COLD AND LATIN AMERICA, 8%
HEALTH (WOMEN'S ALLERGY, 12%
HEALTH AND
WOUND CARE), 11% PAIN CARE, 11%
OTHER SELF CARE ASIA PACIFIC,
BABY CARE, 10% (DIGESTIVE HEALTH, 21% NORTH AMERICA,
SMOKING 50%
CESSATION AND
ORAL CARE, 11% OTHER), 15%
HAIR, SUN AND FACE AND BODY EMEA, 21%
OTHER, 8% CARE, 22%
Source: Company reports. Source: Company reports.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Bottom up, the company(cid:726)s $369 billion TAM consists of:
• $114 billion in Self Care categories (e.g., analgesics, gastrointestinals,
dermatologicals, cough & cold, lifestyle CHC, allergy, eye care, smoking control)
• $217 billion in Skin Health & Beauty categories (e.g., conditioners and treatments,
hair loss treatment, shampoos, medicated shampoos, skin care, adult sun care)
• $38 billion in Essential Health categories (e.g., baby and child products ex-wipes,
mouthwash/dental rinses, sanitary protection ex-U.S./Canada/China, wound care)
Figure 7: KVUE TAM Build Figure 8: TAM Mix by Category vs. KVUE Revenue Mix
$ bn
$400 $369 70%
$350 $38 59%
60%
$300
$250 50% 40%
$200 $217 40% 31% 29% 31%
$150 30%
$100 20% 10%
$50 $114 10%
$0 0%
Self Care Skin Health & Beauty Essential Health Total Self Care Skin Health & Beauty Essential Health
% of TAM % of KVUE 2022 Sales
Source: Company reports. Source: Company reports.
Growth across the categories has been broad based over the past three years with a
+MSD% CAGR including +6.2% in Essential Health categories, +5.1% in Self Care
categories, and +4.5% in Skin Health & Beauty categories, although we note that the
category growth rates over the past few years were impacted by pandemic-related
tailwinds and more recently pricing actions from inflationary cost pressures. Typically
(as we detail later), Essential Health categories grow slower relative to Skin Health &
Beauty (fastest growing) – albeit KVUE was negatively impacted in this segment by
self-inflicted SKU rationalization – and Self Care (slightly below Skin Health &
Beauty).
Figure 9: Category Sales CAGR - Each Category CAGR Accelerated vs. Historical Trend
7% 6.2%
6% 5.1%
4.8%
5% 4.5%
4% 3.4% 3.6% 3.5%
3.0%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Self Care Skin Health & Beauty Essential Health Total
CAGR '18-'21 CAGR '19-'22
Source: Company reports.
We view KVUE(cid:726)s category exposure as a sweet spot in CPG at the intersection of
healthcare and consumer goods – both with long-term secular tailwinds that should lead
to consistent +3-4% growth globally through 2025. At a high level from a category
perspective, growth should be enabled by increased focus on health by consumers and
retailers alike, which was accelerated by the pandemic era, aging population and rising
middle class globally, premiumization, and digitization.
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T h is d o c u m e n t is b e in g p r o v id e d f o r t h e e x c lu s iv e u s e o f D A V I D W A N G a t M A R L O W E P A R T N E R S L P .
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Growth Strategy Focused on Five Pillars
KVUE aims to grow the top line competitively with its underlying category exposure
(+3-4%) driven largely by reinvesting behind its iconic core brands and supplementing
with expansion into new category adjacencies and geographies and bolt-on M&A
focused on consumer health.
The company is primarily focusing its investments behind its top 15 global brands
(Tylenol, Zyrtec, Rhinocort, Motrin, ORSL, Benadryl, Nicorette, Zarbee(cid:726)s, Aveeno,
Neutrogena, Dr.Ci:Labo, OGX, Johnson(cid:726)s, Listerine, Band-Aid) and eight priority
markets (U.S., Canada, U.K., Germany, Brazil, India, Japan, China) where it sees the
greatest opportunity for growth ahead with long runway.
Below, we outline our view on KVUE(cid:726)s growth strategies and thoughts on the
company(cid:726)s prospects.
1. Grow Brand Relevance and Salience
The biggest driver for long-term growth is likely to be household penetration and
incidence opportunity as even KVUE(cid:726)s largest brands have significant usage gaps.
Relevance and salience to consumers should be enabled by marketing campaigns
(predominately digital-focused at this point – more below) and continued focus on
clinical claims and working with healthcare professionals to secure recommendations
(also applicable to innovation).
For example, in the pain relief category in the U.S. there are 4.5x more consumers using
some form of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) vs. consumers
exclusively using acetaminophen (generic name for Tylenol); in skin care there are 2.7x
more consumers who suffer from sensitive skin vs. sensitive product contribution to the
body care category in the U.S.; and in oral care household penetration for mouthwash is
1.8x higher in the U.S. and U.K vs. larger markets in ROW (e.g., Spain, Italy, France,
China, Japan, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines). See deep-dive analysis in the back of
this report for market sizes, household penetration, and market share globally and in the
most relevant countries and categories.
Figure 10: 4.5x More Consumers in U.S. Use Figure 11: 2.7x More Consumers Have Figure 12: Household Penetration Opportunity
Some Form of Pain Care vs. Acetaminophen Sensitive Skin vs. Sensitive Skin Product in Mouthwash
Alone Share of Body Care
118M 71% 50%
29%
26%
26M 15%
Consumers with certain medical conditions exclusively usingConsumers with certain medical conditions using some form Sensitive skin product contribution to body care category in Suffer from sensitive skin in the U.S.
acetaminophen in the U.S. of pain relief in the U.S. the U.S. Household penetration in China Household penetration in Japan Household penetration in U.S. and U.K.
Source: Nielsen Homescan Panel. Source: Aveeno State of Skin Sensitivity Report. Source: Company reports.
2. Increase Product Availability through Omnichannel Strategy
The largest areas of opportunity are to expand presence in pharmacy and e-comm, in our
view. In retail, the opportunity is for incremental shelf space gains as retailers devote
more space to consumer health categories with KVUE well positioned to gain share
given its scale, market share position, and investments behind marketing and consumer
insights, in addition to deeper penetration in the faster growing pharmacy channel in
EMEA, India, and China (APAC is ~21% of sales, and China and India combined are
around 50% of APAC sales with China the #2 market globally and India the #6 market
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T h is d o c u m e n t is b e in g p r o v id e d f o r t h e e x c lu s iv e u s e o f D A V I D W A N G a t M A R L O W E P A R T N E R S L P .
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
globally for KVUE). KVUE(cid:726)s e-commerce opportunity is largely consistent with the rest
of CPG as KVUE(cid:726)s sales mix to pure-play e-commerce is around 6%, which about
doubles to 13% when including retail.com. Looking from 2020-2022, KVUE(cid:726)s e-
commerce sales grew at a roughly +20% CAGR. KVUE is aiming to increase product
availability in the e-commerce channel and increased investment in digital marketing
over the past few years to help accelerate e-commerce mix; for example, 71% of
KVUE(cid:726)s marketing spend was on digital in 2022, up from 44% in 2019. The company is
also expanding in the DTC channel with brands like Dr.Ci:Labo (63% of sales in Japan
DTC in 2022), although it is still early days.
3. Deliver Consistent Cadence of Consumer-Centric Innovation
The company(cid:726)s innovation strategy is centered on elevating the core brands, enhancing
the consumer experience, and solving for unmet needs. The company(cid:726)s innovation
agenda is supported by 1,500 dedicated R&D employees (R&D is ~2.5% of KVUE
sales, which is above the peer average of ~2.0%); over the past several years the
company has launched roughly 100 new products per annum, and innovation introduced
over the rolling preceding three-year period has accounted for about $1.5 billion in net
sales each year since 2020 (about 10% sales mix).
The company(cid:726)s innovation leverages its relationships with healthcare professionals and
also relies on clinical claims. Recent examples include: 1) Listerine rolling out claims
that the product reduces 5x more plaque above the gumline vs. flossing; 2) Children(cid:726)s
Zyrtec Oral Chewables and Dissolve Tabs and Tylenol Dissolve Packs for adults and
children who find it difficult to swallow pills; 3) Neutrogena Rapid Firming Peptide
Contour Lift Face Cream, which contains an anti-aging ingredient (acetyl dipeptide)
designed for sensitive skin; 4) sustainable packaging solutions that reduce plastic
including Neutrogena Hydro Boost refillable pods, Aveeno Body Wash refill packs, and
Listerine concentrate kits; and 5) Aveeno Calm + Restore focused on the underserved
segment of consumers with sensitive, extra-dry skin.
4. Expand into New Product Adjacencies and Geographic Markets
The company is in 165 markets globally but prioritizes eight markets: the U.S. (#1
market), Canada (#3), the U.K. (#5), Germany (#7), Brazil (#4), India (#6), Japan (#8),
and China (#2). Back to the Listerine example, there is still has a significant household
penetration opportunity as the overall United States mouthwash category penetration
rate was only 50% as of December 2022, while in APAC, category penetration was only
29% in Japan and 15% in China, each as of 2022.The company does plan for growth
outside of these markets as well but will generally look to build scale behind core
priority brands and then expand portfolio offerings or enter adjacencies by leveraging
priority brands. The company gave the example of launching Aveeno in Indonesia,
Malaysia, and the Philippines, and we think the company could follow the CPG
playbook of (cid:728)lift-and-shift(cid:729) successful products to additional geographies over time.
5. Continually Evaluate Acquisitions to Enhance Core Product Portfolio and
Capabilities
The company has undertaken a number of acquisitions and divestitures over the past
seven years with 15 divestitures and 10 acquisitions since 2016. While not necessary to
achieve its growth outlook, the company plans to continue looking at M&A
opportunities, although it sounds like management is intent on remaining focused
squarely on the consumer health space and would be looking more for tuck-in vs.
transformational M&A. We expect M&A to be focused on faster growing, premium
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
categories, as has been the case with recent transactions (e.g., Dr.Ci:Labo and Zarbee(cid:726)s).
Balanced Portfolio Shaped through Strategic
Transformation
Self Care (40% of Sales, 53% of OI, OSG +8.6% 3-YR CAGR)
Self Care is KVUE(cid:726)s largest segment with $6.0 billion in sales (~40% of FY22 sales)
and $2.1 billion in adjusted operating income (34.6% margin and 53.4% of KVUE
segment-level adjusted OI). Categories represented in Self Care primarily include
cough, cold and allergy, pain care, digestive health, and smoking cessation. Key brands
include Tylenol, Nicorette, Zyrtec, Motrin, Rhinocort, Benadryl, Zarbee(cid:726)s, ORSL, and
Imodium.
Figure 13: Self Care 40% of Revenues and 53% of Segment OI Figure 14: Self Care Category Revenue Mix
% of FY Sales
100% 100%
90%
90% 80% 37.6% 35.5%
80% 70%
70% 60%
60% 50% 26.7% 32.2%
50% 40%
40% 30%
30% 40% 53% 20% 35.7% 32.2%
20% 10%
0%
10%
2019 2022
0%
% of FY22 Sales % of FY22 Segment OI COUGH, COLD AND ALLERGY PAIN CARE OTHER SELF CARE
Source: Company reports. Source: Company reports.
Self Care Has Been the Key Driver of KVUE(cid:726)s Improved Sales Trajectory in L3Y
Self Care has been aided by tailwinds from COVID and recent (cid:728)tripledemic(cid:729) (RSV, flu,
COVID) and resulting increased consumer focus on health (e.g., increased smoking
cessation attempts during the pandemic). In fact, from 2020-2022 Self Care drove ~91%
of KVUE(cid:726)s organic sales growth with the segment posting a 3Y CAGR of +8.6%
relative to total company 3Y CAGR of +3.4%. Within the Self Care +8.6% 3Y CAGR,
volume growth contributed about 6.3% to the organic CAGR with price/mix
contributing about +2.5%. Impressively, the company(cid:726)s 3Y CAGR has remained
resilient sequentially through most of 2022 and even accelerated in 1Q23 behind higher
incidence of cold and flu in EMEA and inventory replenishment at retail.
Figure 15: Self Care Organic Growth Trends and Outlook Figure 16: Self Care 2022/2023E Organic Growth by Halves
12% 14%
10% 12% 1.4%
8% 1.9% 4.1% 10 8%% 7.3%
6.6%
46% 1.5% 6.4% 1.5% 246 %%% 10.9%
% 7.5% 7.0% 2.4% 3.7% 4.5% 5.4%
2% 4.4% 1.7% 2.2% 0% -0.9%
0% 3.3% -2%
2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 1H22 2H22 1H23E 2H23E
Volume Price/Mix % volume % price/mix
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Following a strong three years of growth, which some could argue would have been
even stronger if not for supply chain challenges on Tylenol, and outlook for a fourth
strong year in 2023, we see the biggest question facing the segment as whether KVUE
will be able to (cid:728)comp the comp(cid:729) and deliver on roughly +4.7% organic growth post-
2023 as the inflationary environment normalizes and the company contends with
lapping years of strong tailwinds to pain care and cough, cold & flu. That is, the
question is whether the category growth trends normalize to historical growth levels or
have a reversion to the mean. While acknowledging the vagaries of virus/allergy
seasonal trends, there are a number of drivers both at the macro and company-level that
provide a pathway to solid, albeit more normalized growth ahead.
Growth Is Not Only Driven by the Pandemic...
In pain care, KVUE should see ongoing tailwinds from deeper penetration for its brands
given unmet medical needs of consumers and wide gap between the number of
consumers using some form of pain relief vs. those using acetaminophen (active
ingredient in Tylenol) exclusively (i.e., some consumers using NSAIDs or a
combination of sometimes NSAIDs/sometimes acetaminophen). As we noted above, in
the U.S. there are roughly 26M consumers with chronic health conditions using
exclusively acetaminophen vs. 118M consumers with chronic health conditions using
some form of pain relief (i.e., NSAIDs or dual-users of NSAIDs or acetaminophen). We
expect the company to prioritize the opportunity for household penetration and usage
expansion in North America (usage gap vs. overall pain care) and APAC (middle class
becoming more open to Western medicine) over the next few years. There should also
be growth opportunity through form factor extensions that provide ease of use/
convenience for consumers (e.g., dissolvable tablets) and line extensions targeted at
specific indications (e.g., arthritis, back pain).
...Strong Growth in Allergy Medicines Proves Power of Brand Equity and
Innovation
In allergy, KVUE should benefit long term from increasing allergy incidence (e.g.,
number of allergy days per season has grown by over 20 days from 1990-2018 given
impacts from factors like climate change, and pollen concentration has increased 21%
over the same period) and penetration in the U.S. (through Zyrtec) and China (through
Rhinocort). Like in pain care, we also expect form factor extensions to aid in driving
growth; for example, the company introduced Children(cid:726)s Zyrtec Chewables to enhance
the consumer experience and drive adoption given challenges many children have with
swallowing pills. This innovation helped to drive accelerated category growth for
pediatric allergy (U.S. growth accelerated 5x for 2H22) with Zyrtec the #1 brand in
pediatric allergy.
Smoke Cessation Benefits from Self-Care Tailwinds Prior to the Pandemic and
Accelerated Post COVID-19
In other self-care categories, KVUE should see continued benefit from quit attempts in
smoking cessation supported by new scientific claims, products (e.g., Nicorette
QuickMist and app), and marketing campaigns (e.g., (cid:728)Do Something Incredible(cid:729)
campaign drove 74% improvement in media ROI and 2.6 points of market share gains
globally), as well as potential entry into vaping cessation. The company also plans to
selectively invest to drive growth in digestive health through ORSL.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Skin Health & Beauty (29% of Sales, 18% of OI, OSG +0.1% 3-
YR CAGR)
Skin Health & Beauty ((cid:728)SHB(cid:729)) generated sales of $4.4 billion in 2022 (~29% of FY22
sales) and $0.7 billion in adjusted operating income (16.3% margin and 18.1% of
KVUE segment-level adjusted OI). Categories represented in SHB primarily include
face and body care, hair care, and sun care, and key brands include Neutrogena, Aveeno,
OGX, Dr.Ci:Labo, Le Petit Marseillais, Lubriderm, Rogaine, Dabao, and Clean & Clear.
Figure 17: Skin Health & Beauty 29% of Revenues and 18% of Segment Figure 18: Skin Health & Beauty Category Revenue Mix
OI % of FY Sales
100% 100%
90% 89 00 %% 25.4% 31.3%
80% 70%
70% 60%
60% 50%
45 00 %% 34 00 %% 74.6% 68.7%
30% 20%
20% 29% 18% 10%
0%
10%
2019 2022
0%
% of FY22 Sales % of FY22 Segment OI FACE AND BODY CARE HAIR, SUN AND OTHER
Source: Company reports. Source: Company reports.
Flat OSG Performance in Last 3 Years Ending 2023, Due to Supply Chain
Constraints...
Despite the category growing at a +4.5% CAGR from 2019-2022, KVUE(cid:726)s SHB
segment has underperformed (3Y CAGR through 2022 just +0.1%) as the business
suffered through supply chain challenges that seemed to have a greater impact relative
to competitors, partially attributable to KVUE(cid:726)s exposure to sun care, which went
through challenges last year given silicone shortages, in addition to impacts from lost
usage occasions during the COVID pandemic (also impacted competitors). With that,
over the past three years SHB essentially contributed nothing to KVUE(cid:726)s organic
growth, and as of 2022, SHB volumes still stood around 3% below 2019 levels.
… Turning the Corner Accelerating to MSDs OSG in 2H22 and Low Teens in 1Q23
That said, KVUE appears to be turning a corner more recently in top-line trajectory
(albeit against a low bar) as the company undertook actions to streamline its supply
chain and build resilience (in addition to general easing of supply chain situation
globally). Specifically, 2H22 organic growth in the segment came in at +5.3% (+MSD%
in each of 3Q/4Q) vs. a -4.0% organic growth decline in 1H22, implying a 3Y CAGR in
2H22 of +1.5% vs. -0.8% in 1H22. Momentum has continued thus far in 1Q23 with
organic growth of +13.2%, and the segment seems to be on stronger footing now to take
advantage of favorable secular trends in the categories of body, face, and sun care.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Figure 19: Skin Health & Beauty Organic Growth Trends and Outlook Figure 20: Skin Health & Beauty 2022/2023E Organic Growth by Halves
10% 12%
8% 10%
8%
6% 1.8% 6% 8.4%
4% 7.9% 2.6% 4% 4.1% 7.4%
2% 20 .. 36 %% 2.8% 2.5% 02% % 1.6% 1.1% 1.0%
-20% % -0 3.8 .3% % -2.3% -2.1% 3.5% --- 642 %%% -5.6% -5.1%
-4% -8%
2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 1H22 2H22 1H23E 2H23E
Volume Price/Mix % volume % price/mix
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
With a favorable setup that should benefit from reopening, lapping a low comparison
base, and recent innovation, the company should be able to deliver >+5% organic
growth over the next three years and drive one-third of the company(cid:726)s organic growth
(vs. just 1% from 2020-2022). Supporting the top-line outlook is execution against
innovation and marketing with larger focus on Neutrogena Hydro Boost in face care,
sun care innovation (both Neutrogena and Aveeno), and more focus on body care with
Aveeno Calm + Restore for sensitive skin. The company is likely also to push more on
growth in the APAC region through its recent acquisition of dermocosmetic brand Dr.
Ci:Labo (acquired in 2019) in the prestige segment (dermocosmetics growing 2x
category rate) and Dabao ((cid:728)local jewel(cid:729) brand) in the mass segment (64% share of
category). In hair care, OGX has seen strong performance in the premium segment in
the U.S., and the company should also benefit from growth in the hair re-growth
category with Rogaine.
The biggest question ahead for SHB, in our view, is simply that the company hasn(cid:726)t
demonstrated an ability to generate consistent top-line growth and take advantage of the
secular tailwinds to the categories. That said, with improving supply chain situation,
reinvestment behind marketing, and innovation, we do see a path to +MSD% in the
years ahead.
Essential Health (31% of Sales, 28% of OI, OSG +0.9% 3-YR
CAGR)
Essential Health generated sales of $4.6 billion in 2022 (~31% of FY22 sales) and $1.1
billion in adjusted operating income (24.3% margin and 28.4% of KVUE segment-level
adjusted OI). Categories represented in Essential Health primarily include oral care,
baby care, women(cid:726)s health, and wound care, and key brands include Listerine, Johnson(cid:726)s
Baby, Stayfree / Carefree, Band-Aid, Neosporin, and o.b.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Figure 21: Essential Health 31% of Revenues and 28% of Segment OI Figure 22: Essential Health Category Revenue Mix
% of FY Sales
100% 100%
90%
90% 80% 32.7% 34.6%
80% 70%
70% 60%
60% 50% 35.1% 32.7%
50% 40%
40% 30%
30% 20% 32.2% 32.7%
20% 31% 28% 10%
0%
10%
2019 2022
0%
% of FY22 Sales % of FY22 Segment OI ORAL CARE BABY CARE OTHER ESSENTIAL HEALTH
Source: Company reports. Source: Company reports.
Essential Health has been the main area of focus of KVUE(cid:726)s transformation over the
2019-2022 period when the new management team came in with a focus on active
portfolio management and simplification and margin improvement. Specifically, since
2019 the segment has seen a -$100M headwind from divestitures (around 2% of 2019
sales) and another -$100M headwind from SKU rationalization. With that, the segment
has underperformed the category CAGR of +6.2% from 2019-2022 with organic growth
CAGR of +0.9% from 2020-2022 and volumes ending 2022 over 5% lower vs. 2019.
With a lot of the portfolio cleanup now in the past, the segment should be able to return
to growth more consistent with historical levels, aided by significant pricing actions
with modest elasticity and a couple of key marketing campaigns behind core brands
Listerine and Aveeno Baby. We model for Essential Health to grow +3.4% in 2023 and
then grow at a 2Y CAGR of +2.2% in 2024-2025.
Figure 23: Essential Health Organic Growth Trends and Outlook Figure 24: Essential Health 2022/2023E Organic Growth by Halves
10.0% 10%
8.0% 8%
6.0% 6%
24 .. 00 %% 2.2% 1.4% 4.9% 8.9% 1.6% 0.8% 24% % 3.2% 6.7% 9.2% 8.5%
0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 1.6% 0%
-- 42 .. 00 %% -6.2% -5.5% -- 42 %% -5.9% -6.6% -6.0% -5.0%
-6.0% -6%
-8.0% -8%
2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 1H22 2H22 1H23E 2H23E
Volume Price/Mix % volume % price/mix
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
The company sounds particularly optimistic around Listerine given the category
penetration opportunity and marketing of new scientific claims. We noted before that
mouthwash penetration is 1.8x higher in the U.S. and U.K. vs. other larger markets in
ROW, and the company is rolling out claims from a scientific study that Listerine is 5x
more effective at destroying plaque above the gum line vs. flossing (has led to 5 point
increase in share of healthcare professionals recommending Listerine to 63%).
The +LSD% top-line outlook for the segment appears reasonable, in our view, given the
mature categories in which KVUE competes in the segment, although we note that
KVUE(cid:726)s market share trends have been quite challenged over the past couple years,
which management attributes in part to the SKU rationalization effort that likely led to
some lost points of distribution and shelf space. Typically we would view SKU
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
rationalization as (cid:728)normal course of business,(cid:729) and we would be surprised if elimination
of non-core SKUs with low velocity (as is typically the case in an SKU rationalization
effort) led to that material market share losses as normally one would expect sales to
flow back to the higher velocity, core SKUs. As such, perhaps the market share losses
could be more tied to less than ideal execution and differentiated offerings from
competitors (e.g., CHD(cid:726)s TheraBreath in mouthwash).
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Margin Trajectory Improving Post-Strategic
Transformation and Investments
Following the current management team coming into the business around 2019, KVUE
saw improvement in margin trajectory driven by a strategic transformation and series of
investments aimed at both improving profitability and also driving top-line momentum.
Some of the actions we outlined above (e.g., 15 divestitures and 10 acquisitions to
reshape the portfolio since 2016, SKU rationalization, investments in higher ROI digital
media), but others included supply chain simplification (e.g., rationalizing smaller
external manufacturers) and investments in supply chain digitization (e.g., automation,
resiliency), and there was also a margin mix benefit from faster growth in the higher-
margin Self Care segment. Together these areas helped lead to a +290 bps expansion in
KVUE gross margins from 2019 to 2021.
KVUE(cid:726)s EBITDA margins improved +445 bps in 2020 (26.1%) vs. 2019 (21.6%) but
finished -78 bps YOY in 2021 given reinvestment behind advertising (-120 bps
headwind as advertising expense increased to 9.7% of sales) to 25.3% but still about 365
bps ahead of 2019 levels. Pressure continued in 2022 driven by supply chain, inflation,
and FX pressures with margins compressing another -119 bps YOY. Looking ahead,
with pricing actions now in place (mostly a 2H22 event) to begin to help offset
inflationary cost pressures and incremental pricing in 2023 (we estimate ~45% of 2023
pricing is carryover from 2022), KVUE(cid:726)s EBITDA margins should begin to recover
even after burdening the P&L with stand-alone company costs (e.g., transition services
and manufacturing agreements, public company costs, incremental hires to support
standalone organization), which likely total ~$100M.
Deliberate Portfolio Optimization Toward Core and Faster Growing Consumer
Health Categories
M&A has played a significant role in shaping the KVUE portfolio with some of its
largest brands the result of acquisitions including Tylenol (1958), Neutrogena (1994),
Aveeno (1996), and Listerine (2006). More recently, the company has undertaken efforts
to streamline its portfolio to core brands and (cid:728)local jewels(cid:729) (i.e., leveraging same active
ingredient/technology at platform brand) while exiting slower growth, lower margin
brands/categories and making acquisitions in faster growth, higher margin brand/
categories. As noted, since 2016 the company has actively shaped the portfolio by
completing 15 divestitures and 10 acquisitions. Recent notable acquisitions include
Vogue International (OGX) in 2016, NeoStrata in 2016, Zarbee(cid:726)s in 2018, and Dr.
Ci:Labo in 2019; some notable divestitures include RoC and Nizoral in 2018 in the Skin
Health & Beauty segment and Compeed (2017) and Reach (2021) in the Essential
Health segment.
Beyond M&A, KVUE also undertook an extensive SKU rationalization effort over the
past few years that has resulted in a 21% reduction in the number of SKUs from 2019-
2022 and was a roughly ~$100M headwind to the top line in the Essential Health
segment with some additional impact to Skin Health & Beauty as well.
The SKU rationalization and M&A efforts, while detrimental to the top line and the
company(cid:726)s market share performance, helped to improve the margin structure by
reducing complexity and eliminating lower profitability items as evidenced by Essential
Health segment adjusted operating income margins expanding approximately 340 bps
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
from 2019 to 2022 despite organic sales CAGR of just +0.9% and reported sales down -
6.7% from 2019 levels.
Figure 25: Essential Health Segment Sales, OI, Margin 2022 vs. 2019 Figure 26: Essential Health Profit/Margin Improvement Despite Lower
$ m Sales
$6,000 $4,896 24.3% 25.0% 10% 8.7%
$5,000 $4,570 24.0% 8%
$4,000 23.0% 6%
+340 bps
$3,000 22.0% 4%
2%
$2,000 20.9% 21.0%
$1,022 $1,111 0%
$1,000 20.0% -2%
$0 19.0% -4%
2019 2022 -6%
Sales Segment OI Segment OI Margin -8% -6.7%
Sales 2022 vs. 2019 Segment OI 2022 vs. 2019 Segment OI Margin 2022 vs. 2019
Source: Company reports. Source: Company reports.
We expect the company to continually evaluate opportunities to streamline its portfolio
by eliminating tail SKUs (likely an annual exercise as it is with any CPG company),
although from our perspective it appears that much of the (cid:728)heavy lifting(cid:729) of portfolio
optimization is largely behind the company at this point. Looking ahead, M&A figures
to continue to play a role in shaping of the portfolio, likely continuing in the higher
growth/margin segments within Consumer Health (e.g., Self Care and Skin Health &
Beauty), and we expect M&A to be more bolt-on in nature vs. transformational
transactions. With strong FCF generation and a healthy balance sheet (post-IPO net
debt-to-TTM EBITDA likely ~2.1x) KVUE should have ample dry powder to deploy to
M&A if it deems fit, and we think management is likely earmarking $500-750M for
acquisitions in the years ahead (vs. JPMe FCF $2.4B/$2.5B/$2.8B in 2023/2024/2025),
although we note that we don(cid:726)t account for any M&A benefit within our P&L estimates.
Supply Chain Optimization to Reduce Complexity, Increase Efficiency and
Resiliency
While supply chain challenges plagued KVUE during 2022 given input shortages and
transportation challenges, the company has undertaken efforts since 2019 to structurally
improve its supply chain by investing in digitization to increase efficiency and resiliency
and by reduced complexity through external manufacturer rationalization.
Pre-pandemic, KVUE(cid:726)s supply chain focus was mostly on operational excellence,
quality control, and margin maximization, but COVID tested the resilience and
flexibility of the supply chain and uncovered a lack of redundancy that impacted
product availability and service. The company noted that in 2021/2022 64%/63% of its
scheduled capital spend for supply chain investments was allocated to digitization
(automation), which ultimately allows for better demand planning, capacity, and
resilience. Some examples include 1) shift to conditions-based maintenance from
scheduled maintenance given better monitoring capabilities allows for better capacity
availability while also alleviating labor challenges; 2) complexity reduction through
SKU rationalization and product design standardization (e.g., bottle types) and reducing
the number of small external manufacturers (e.g., company eliminated 60% of small
external manufacturers); 3) increasing dual sourcing and reducing specification on
critical ingredients to improve availability/resilience; and 4) integrated business
planning to optimize forecasting and inventory management, leading to better
profitability and cash flow.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
All in, the company(cid:726)s in-house manufacturing footprint of 25 facilities accounted for
56% of production volume in 2022 while the remaining 44% of production was handled
by seven JNJ facilities under transition manufacturing agreements and 230 external
manufacturers (as noted above, a 60% reduction since 2019). Within the segments, Skin
Health & Beauty tends to be more out-sourced while Self Care is more in house. The
company also operates 114 distribution centers and 38 customer service centers globally,
with distribution often operated in partnership with third parties.
Digital Marketing Improving ROI as Company Shifts to Omnichannel
About 6% of KVUE(cid:726)s sales are through pure-play e-commerce, but mix more than
doubles to 13% including retailer.com (largely in line with CPG peers), and the
company(cid:726)s online sales have grown at a +20% CAGR from 2020 to 2022. One of the
drivers beyond the general shift of consumption to online channels is the company(cid:726)s
focus on digital marketing, which has taken shape over the past several years. In North
America, for example, the digital marketing spend accounted for 73% of total marketing
spend in 2022, which was up from 59% in 2020 and 49% in 2019 and drove a +29%
increase in media ROI as of October 2022 and collective 13 points increase in U.S.
household penetration from 2019 to 2021. The company has pointed to digital
investments driving improved social media engagement including for Neutrogena a
660% increase in followers from August to December 2021 as a result of its SkinU
campaign on TikTok, which generated over 300 million social media impressions. The
company has also focused a lot of its digital efforts outside of the U.S., in particularly in
APAC, which accounted for 63% of global e-commerce sales in 2020. Investments
behind digital media are largely table stakes for CPG companies at this stage as a cost-
efficient and effective way to engage with consumers. Digital focus is likely to continue
to be important, especially for segments or brands appealing to younger digitally-native
consumers like within Skin Health & Beauty. The company does continue to invest in
traditional media, although it largely depends on where the consumer is in that particular
market.
Opportunity for Margin Expansion as KVUE Exits TSA/TMA
Looking ahead, one of the bigger areas for margin expansion opportunity for KVUE
will likely be in exiting transition services agreements (TSA) and transition
manufacturing agreements (TMA) with JNJ post-separation, which run on a cost-plus
model. Of the roughly $100M in incremental costs associated with being a stand-alone
company, we estimate that the TSA and TMA could be roughly 50-60% of the
incremental costs (i.e., 30-40 bps margin opportunity of roughly 130 bps EBITDA
margin expansion modeled for 2022-2025).
The TSAs generally run for 24 months following the separation, although some services
could be provided for a longer period of time (less than 60 months) in certain
circumstances such as if the functions are limited by regulatory approval. The company
noted that it plans on working with JNJ in establishing its own stand-alone IT functions,
which would run concurrent to the TSA and could account for less than a 100 bps
headwind to profitability and decline post-2023.
The TMAs cover Self Care products including certain Tylenol, Zyrtec, Mortin, Benadryl
and other OTC products that represented less than 10% of KVUE(cid:726)s 2022 sales. Within
the TMAs, KVUE is responsible for demand forecasting (both binding and non-
binding), and JNJ will be responsible for sourcing raw materials and manufacturing. The
TMAs have different lengths depending on product but in all cases phase out over a
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
five-year period (could be extended for three additional 12-month periods under certain
circumstances), and the company aims to exit most of the TMAs within three years.
Generally speaking the TMAs take a longer time to exit vs. TSAs given the time line for
regulatory approvals or marketing authorization transfers. The TMA periods are 3-60
months for Tylenol products and 21-60 months for Zyrtec, Motrin, and Benadryl
products.
To be fair, some of the potential savings opportunity could be eroded if KVUE opts to
select another third party to facilitate any G&A or manufacturing function, although it(cid:726)s
possible that a different third-party fee could be lower than JNJs (because JNJ now has
to make a margin on these contracts), and/or KVUE could look to drive efficiencies out
of processes and manufacturing. Additionally, there is risk that KVUE standing up its
own functions or in-sourcing manufacturing could run into challenges if it or third
parties are unable to replicate JNJ processes.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Financial Outlook
Path to ~+4% Top Line over Next Few Years with Upside If
Elasticities Hold Up
KVUE(cid:726)s long-term algorithm calls for organic top-line growth to be competitive with
category growth rates, which the company expects to be around +3-4% per annum
through 2025. This growth rate is consistent with the recent past where KVUE(cid:726)s
categories grew at a roughly +3.5% CAGR from 2018-2021 (although category organic
growth CAGR accelerated in 2019-2022 given COVID tailwinds and pricing to +4.8%).
Figure 27: KVUE Organic Growth Drivers by Year Figure 28: KVUE Historical and Forward 3Y CAGR Drivers
10% 5%
8% 5%
4%
6% 4%
024 %%% -11 0.. .47 2%% -21 0.. 62 .3%% -4 0. .0 11% -7 1.6 .6% 12 .. 82 %% 21 .. 84 %% 12233 %%%% 2.3% 3.7%
% % - 0 . %% % %
-2% 1% 1.3% 1.0%
-4% 0%
2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E L3Y (2020-2022) N3Y (2023-2025)
Volume Price/Mix Other* Volume Price/Mix
Source: Company reports and J.P Morgan estimates; *Other relates to carve-out financial Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
adjustments
That said, based on historical data it appears that KVUE has been underperforming the
overall category growth rate over the same period (we estimate organic growth CAGR
+2.6% 2018-21), although the company has been transforming the business to put it on
a better footing for organic growth by sharpening resource allocation and optimizing the
portfolio (e.g., SKU rationalization, acquisitions/divestitures). In fact, KVUE(cid:726)s organic
growth trends have accelerated for three consecutive years since 2019 – ramping from
+1.4% in 2019 to +3.8% in 2022 with the 2019-2022 CAGR +3.4%. As we noted,
organic growth over the past few years has been hampered by supply chain disruptions,
SKU rationalization, and COVID-19, and excluding these items the company estimates
that its organic growth CAGR from 2019-2022 would have been about +5.4%.
Figure 29: KVUE Historical Sales Bridge
$ m
$16,000
+4.0%
$15,500 +1.5% $15,054 -0.1%
+1.2% $14,950
$15,000 +1.4% +1.7% $14,467 +2.6% -0.3% -0.9% -0.1% -4.2% -0.3%
$14,500 $14,324 -0.2%
-1.8% -0.1%
$14,000
$13,500
$13,000
Source: Company reports.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
KVUE Lagged Peers in OSG Due to Delayed Pricing, Improving Recently
As such, in the past three years KVUE(cid:726)s organic growth trends have underperformed
peers with KVUE(cid:726)s +3.4% below the median of +5.2% and the average of +9.5%
(+5.8% ex-OLPX). While adjusting for the aforementioned headwinds would have
resulted in KVUE organic growth CAGR just slightly above the median (i.e., +5.4% vs.
median +5.2%), we don(cid:726)t see it as a fair comparison as peer companies faced many of
the same headwinds as KVUE between supply chain disruptions and COVID-19.
Timing is also a driver of the underperformance vs. peers over the last three years as
KVUE was late vs. peers in putting through pricing actions and at a more moderate level
vs. most of HPC (i.e., KVUE just in 2H22 began putting through pricing in the ~HSD
range overall while HPC peers took multiple rounds of pricing ranging from MSD-LDD
in some cases), although we also aren(cid:726)t projecting KVUE to grow much faster vs. peers
ahead despite delayed pricing benefit.
Figure 30: Organic Sales 3Y CAGR vs. Peers
CY20-CY22
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
ELF HNST RKT OR PG CL CLX HLN ULVR CHD BEI KMB KVUE NWL EL COTY
Organic 3Y CAGR Average Median
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.; *OLPX 3Y Organic CAGR +68.1% removed for ease of comparison
2023 Should Still Be Above Algorithm at ~6% OSG, Normalizing to Peer Average
~+4% in 2024+
Looking ahead, we see KVUE as well positioned for +6% organic top line in 2023 and ~
+4% organic top-line growth over the following two years (3Y CAGR +4.7%) with
potential for upside if elasticities hold up better than expected (we believe KVUE is
modeling internally for elasticities to revert to historical mean vs. relatively more
limited elasticities experienced thus far and positive volume growth of +2.4% in 1Q23
despite +8.8% price/mix). Underpinning the expected top-line growth is the underlying
category growth trends, which we detailed earlier. Within KVUE(cid:726)s portfolio, we expect
top-line growth to be led by Self Care and Skin Health & Beauty segments, while
Essential Health contributes relatively less given category dynamics.
Specifically, we estimate Self Care to grow at a three-year CAGR of +5.8% and
contribute ~50% to KVUE(cid:726)s organic growth through 2025, Skin Health & Beauty to
grow at a three-year CAGR of +5.4% and contribute ~33% to KVUE(cid:726)s organic growth
through 2025, and Essential Health to grow at a three-year CAGR of +2.6% and
contribute ~17% to KVUE(cid:726)s organic growth through 2025. We note that in the prior
three years (2020-2022), Self Care grew at a +8.6% three-year CAGR and contributed
nearly ~91% to KVUE organic growth, Skin Health & Beauty grew at a +0.1% three-
year CAGR and contributed ~1% to KVUE organic growth, and Essential Health grew
at a +0.9% three-year CAGR and contributed around ~8% to KVUE organic growth.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Figure 31: Segment Contribution to YOY Organic Growth Figure 32: Segment Contribution to L3Y and N3Y Organic CAGR
7% 5.0%
23456 %%%%% 1 31. ..0 27% 0.7% 223344 ...... 050505 %%%%%% 10 .. 68 %%
1.5% 00 .. 03 %%
0 3. .6 2% 00 ..7 9% 40 .. 12 %% %% 10 .. 56 %%
%
%
1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.5% 3.1%
0% -0.9% -0.5% 2.0% 1.0% 2.4%
-1% 0.5%
-2% 0.0%
2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E L3Y (2020-2022) N3Y (2023-2025)
Self Care Skin Health & Beauty Essential Health Self Care Skin Health & Beauty Essential Health
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Figure 33: Segment Organic Growth by Year Figure 34: Segment L3Y and N3Y Organic CAGR
12% 10.9% 10% 8.6%
10% 9.5% 9%
8.1% 8%
468 %%% 5.4% 4.6%4.8% 5.8%5.1%5.3% 2.9%3.5%3.8%6.0% 4.0%4.2% 4567 %%%% 5.8% 5.4% 4.7%
2.8% 1.9%2.1% 3.4% 2.2%2.3% 2.6% 3.4%
2% 0.5% 3%
0% 2% 0.9%
1% 0.1%
-2% -1.4% 0%
-4% -2.8% Self Care Skin Health & Beauty Essential Health Total
Self Care Skin Health & Beauty Essential Health Total L3Y (2020-2022) N3Y (2023-2025)
2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Expect OSG to Be Mostly Driven By Pricing (as Peers) But Normalize Ahead
Within the top-line outlook, we expect 2023 growth to be driven exclusively by price/
mix as the company benefits from carryover pricing actions put through in 2022 as well
as some incremental pricing in 2023, partially offset by expected volume decline likely
from elasticity and continued normalization post tailwinds from COVID-19 and recent
(cid:728)triple-demic.(cid:729) 2022 organic growth was likewise driven entirely by price/mix, although
volumes were relatively flattish as volume growth in Self Care was offset by the other
segments, which was partially impacted by SKU rationalization, product exits in Russia,
COVID-19 lockdowns, and supply disruptions. Excluding these items management
estimates 2022 volumes would have been up +1.7%. Historically, volume represented
around two-thirds of KVUE organic growth with price/mix one-third, and looking ahead
past 2023 we expect a return to this top-line growth mix as the company laps materially
higher pricing increases, likely by mid 2024.
For 2023, we estimate that roughly 45% of our +7.6% price/mix forecast results from
carryover pricing actions and that price/mix will contribute +8.2% to the top line in
1H23 and +6.9% in 2H23. We estimate total volumes -1.6% for 2023 with 1H23
volumes roughly flat (+0.2%) and 2H23 volumes down around -3.4%. As noted above,
1Q23 volumes came in +2.4% against +8.8% price/mix with strong volume
performance in Self Care (+7.1%) and Skin Health & Beauty (+4.3%) more than
offsetting the decline in Essential Health (-5.5%). There were a number of drivers to the
stronger than expected volume performance in 1Q23: 1) Self Care benefitted from a
strong cold, cough, and flu season in EMEA, driving higher incidence, and the segment
also benefitted from retailer restocking in the U.S. as most retailers exited 4Q22 with
lower inventory levels; and 2) the Skin Health & Beauty segment benefited from easy
comparisons (lapped -8.6% volume decline in 1Q22) and inventory rebuild at retailers
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
with strength in Neutrogena (Hydro Boost) and Aveeno. Some of the tailwinds to 1Q23
could continue into 2Q23, including in Self Care as usage occasions likely remained
elevated in EMEA in the weeks following quarter-end, and the company will also
continue to lap material supply chain challenges. We model for a normalization in
volume trends in 2H23 as the comparisons get tougher and the company may not benefit
as much from inventory replenishment and there remains uncertainty on consumer
elasticities ahead, although more conservative 2H estimates could provide a source of
upside should the consumer landscape hold up better than anticipated or if there are
strong allergy seasons in Self Care.
Figure 35: KVUE 1Q23 Organic Growth Performance by Segment Figure 36: KVUE Organic Growth Drivers 1H23E vs. 2H23E
20% 10%
15% 8%
10% 8.2% 8.9% 6%
05 %% 7.1% 4.3% 9.4% 28 .. 48 %% 24 %% 8.2% 6.9%
-5% -5.5% 0% 0.2%
-10% -2% -3.4%
SELF CARE SKIN HEALTH AND ESSENTIAL HEALTH TOTAL -4%
BEAUTY 1H23E 2H23E
% volume % price/mix % volume % price/mix
Source: Company reports. Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
For 2024 we model for price/mix of +2.2% and volumes of +1.8% and for 2025 price/
mix of +1.4% and volumes +2.8%. We see 2024 as benefiting early in the year from
carryover pricing from 2023 before the drivers of the top-line should normalize more
toward the company(cid:726)s longer-term algorithm of two-thirds volume and one-third price
mix.
Figure 37: KVUE Forward Estimated Sales Bridge
$ m
$17,500 +1.4% $16,973
+2.8%
$17,000
+2.2% $16,289
$16,500 +1.8%
$16,000 +7.6% $15,662
$15,500
$14,950
$15,000
$14,500
-1.6%
$14,000
$13,500
$13,000
2022 Volume Price/mix 2023E Volume Price/mix 2024E Volume Price/mix 2025E
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Gross Margins Poised to Improve – Can Return to 2021 Peak
by 2025
KVUE(cid:726)s gross margins expanded by +125 bps in 2020 and another +164 bps in 2021
before compressing -88 bps in 2022 to 58.1% as the company dealt with inflationary
cost pressures seen throughout CPG (raw material inputs, freight, packaging) and supply
chain challenges, primarily in the Skin Health and Beauty segment. Prior to 2022, gross
margin expansion over the past few years has been driven by productivity (e.g., ZBB),
rationalization of smaller third-party manufacturers (60% of small external
manufacturers eliminated), portfolio optimization (21% SKU reduction), and favorable
segment mix (higher margin Self Care growth).
Figure 38: KVUE Gross Margin Bridge
62%
1.7%
61%
60% 0.4%
2.1% 59.0% 0.1%
59% 0.5% 1.0%
58% 1.1% 57.4% 0.4% 58.1%
57% 0.7%
56.1% 0.1% -1.2% -4.0%
56% -0.6%
55%
Source: Company reports.
We model for +54 bps gross margin expansion in 2023, slight -6 bps compression in
2024, and +38 bps expansion in 2025, which would return gross margins to 2021 levels
at 59.0%.
We see a number of drivers of gross margin expansion: 1) further optimization of
supply chain and COGS efficiencies; 2) rollover of 2022 pricing actions as well as
incremental pricing in 2023 and beyond; 3) abating cost headwinds; and 4)
favorable segment mix with continued faster growth in higher margin Self Care
and Skin Health and Beauty segments (although some Skin Health and Beauty profit
growth likely to be reinvested). Relating to our estimates, expectations for 2024 could
admittedly be conservative as we leave our margin assumptions unchanged despite a
stronger than expected start to 2023 – the aforementioned drivers and abating
inflationary pressures could lead to better gross margin performance than we have
modeled.
Inflation should remain a headwind in 2023 (perhaps roughly -240 bps to gross
margins), albeit to a lesser extent than 2022 where we estimate costs could have been a -
400 bps headwind. On COGS, we estimate roughly 40% is in raw materials and inputs,
30% in internal and external manufacturing costs, and the remaining 30% in other
overhead, freight, and amortization. Within KVUE(cid:726)s cost buckets, raw materials are
relatively diversified, in our view, with resins, pulp and paper, agro chemicals (like
ethanol and glycerin), and packaging materials the largest exposures, although in total
these represent less than 20% of total COGS. From an FX perspective, the company
hedges its transactional exposure for forecasted revenues, purchases, receivables, and
payables, but it does not hedge translational risk. Key currencies include EUR, GBP,
JPY, CNY, CAD, BRL, and INR.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Exit of TSA and TMA Is Another Source of Margin Improvement Longer Term
Within the cost outlook, we also note that KVUE entered into a Transition
Manufacturing Agreement (in addition to Transition Services Agreement that sounds
more related to operating services), which covers pharmaceutical products like Tylenol,
Zyrtec, Motrin, and Benadryl, among others. The company noted that the products
covered under the TMA accounted for less than 10% of its sales in 2022. The TMA is
based on a cost-plus model and ranges in terms from 3 to 60 months depending on the
product (3-60 months for Tylenol, 21-60 months for Zyrtec, 21-60 months for Motrin,
and 21-60 months for Benadryl), although the company notes that these terms could be
extended for up to three additional 12-month periods if there are issues, which we think
would be mostly due to regulatory processes and facility validation. Management
expects to be out of the TMA within three years for most of the products. Exiting these
TMA agreements should allow for better margin profile over time as the company no
longer pays the markup associated with the agreement.
Relative to peers, KVUE(cid:726)s adjusted gross margins (including amortization of definite
life intangible assets to make more comparable) compare favorably to most HPC and
consumer health peers (ranks below only HLN, RKT, and BEI) but are well below those
of more pure-play beauty names. Overall, KVUE(cid:726)s category exposure to OTC and
beauty lends itself to strong gross margin profile vs. HPC more exposed to everyday
essentials, and many companies in the peer set have also faced greater inflationary cost
pressures given COGS exposure more weighted to the oil complex, pulps, and
transportation/logistics costs.
Figure 39: Gross Margins vs. Peers
CY22
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Gross Margin Average Median
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.; *KVUE adjusted gross margins including amortization of definite life intangibles;
**CL adjusted gross margins adding back shipping & handling costs
Post-2023 Leverage in Middle of P&L to Help Drive Solid
Earnings Growth
Following 2023, which will be burdened both by costs related to TSA and separation
costs, we see SG&A as a lever to help drive operating growth in the years ahead as the
company 1) continues to exercise disciplined cost management with zero-based
budgeting practices; and 2) works to take out costs over time related to the ~$100M
incremental costs associated with the separation from JNJ, including exiting transition
services agreements, primarily over the next two years as well as transition
manufacturing agreements, which we estimate account for roughly 60% of the
incremental stand-alone costs. At the same time, we expect KVUE to further support its
brands through increased advertising spending in the near term following a period of
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
being more selective in 2022.
Specifically, we are modeling for SG&A as a percent of sales to be 42 bps unfavorable
YOY in 2023, roughly neutral in 2024, and 51 bps favorable in 2025, which would then
put SG&A as a percent of sales just below 2022 levels. Within SG&A, advertising has
been a bit lumpy and oscillated between favorable and unfavorable to margins over the
past three years. Investments increased in 2021 to support top-line growth and key
brands but were lower in 2022 as the company made more discriminating decisions on
advertising given the supply disruptions and inflationary cost environment (balancing
investment with profitability). We see the company stepping up investments in 2023 to
support the top-line growth, primarily in the Self Care segment.
Figure 40: KVUE Operating Expense Outlook Figure 41: KVUE Advertising Expense
37% 250 10.5% 100
333 456 %%% 2.7% 2.4% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 5112 0 050 000 10 9..0 5% % 9.7% 9.5% 9-10% 050
9.1%
33% 2.2% 0 9.0% 8.8%
33 12 %% 33.2% 33.6% 33.4% 33.9% 33.9% 33.3%-- 15 00 0 8.5% 8.5% -50
30% 31.7% -- 21 05 00 8.0% -100
29% -250 7.5% -150
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E Target
SG&A % of Sales R&D % of Sales YOY Favorable/(Unfavorable) bps Advertising Expense % of Sales YOY Favorable/(Unfavorable) bps
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
A&P Spend Is Up but Still Trails Most Peers, Yet...
KVUE(cid:726)s advertising spend of about 9.1% of sales is a bit below close HPC peers like
CL (11.1%) and PG (9.9%), although as we noted above we expect A&P spending to
step up 40 bps in 2023E to 9.5%. We note that some of the comparisons vs. peers are not
apples to apples as some companies account for go-to-market activities (e.g., sampling,
sales force, etc.) within advertising expense, which makes spend appear elevated. Also,
we note that marketing productivity has been up, which helps explain the relatively
higher efficient ratio (lower A&P as a percentage of sales). Historically, the company
had made efforts to improve SG&A efficiency through organization redesign (reduced
head count 10% from 2019-2022) and also increasing ROI on media spend by 28% from
2019-2021.
Figure 42: Advertising Expense vs. Peers
CY22 or Last Fiscal* where noted
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Advertising % of Sales Average Median
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
R&D Is Higher Than Peers
On the other hand, KVUE(cid:726)s R&D spending is in the top quartile vs. peers at 2.5%
(average 2.0% and median 1.8%), which speaks to the company(cid:726)s commitment to
spending behind developing innovation and driving unique claims for its products.
Figure 43: Research and Development Expense vs. Peers
CY22 or Last Fiscal* where noted
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
R&D % of Sales Average Median
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Longer term, KVUE(cid:726)s financial algorithm calls for earnings growth ahead of sales
growth, although given the burden of stand-alone company costs and incremental
interest expense, earnings per share growth will likely fall below this target in 2023 and
2024 before seeing faster growth in 2025 as the company sees leverage throughout the
P&L for the aforementioned reasons. From an EBITDA perspective, however, we do see
KVUE generating profit growth ahead of sales growth from 2023-2025 with a three-
year CAGR of +6.1% vs. top-line CAGR of +4.3%, implying EBITDA margin
expansion to 25.4% in 2025 from 24.1% in 2022 (roughly +130 bps expansion) and
25.3% in 2021.
Figure 44: KVUE EBITDA Growth Outlook Figure 45: KVUE EBITDA vs. Sales Growth Outlook
$$$5 44, ,,0 050 000 00 $3,77521.7% $3,810 $3,606 $3,797 $3,983 $4,308 225 0% % 67 %% 6.1%
$3,500 $3,101 15%
$3,000 10% 5% 4.3%
$2,500 8.2% 4%
$$ 12 ,, 50 00 00 0.9% 5.3% 4.9% 05 %% 3%
$1,000
$500 -5.4% -5% 2%
$0 -10% 1%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E
EBITDA $ m (left-axis) EBITDA YOY Growth (right-axis) 0%
EBITDA CAGR (2023-2025) Sales CAGR (2023-2025)
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
For ease of comparison, we prefer to look at EBITDA as the primary profit KPI for
KVUE as the company(cid:726)s adjusted earnings per share excludes the impact of
amortization of definite life intangible assets, which it treats 100% of brands/
trademarks, while competitors do not adjust this expense out. As such, KVUE(cid:726)s adjusted
earnings appear higher than they otherwise would following the accounting convention
across our coverage universe. In our model we present adjusted earnings per share both
with and without the impact of amortization of intangible assets, but we think investors
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
may prefer to look to EBITDA.
Versus the peer set, KVUE(cid:726)s EBITDA margins are in the top quartile at 24.1% vs.
average 21.3% and median 21.8% (ex-OLPX average 18.8% and median 20.9%), but
still trail closest peer HLN (25.1%), and are between PG (25.0%) and CL (23.5%). We
see opportunity for KVUE to expand EBITDA margins ahead as pricing flows through,
inflation abates, and the company works to take out costs to stand up the company (e.g.,
TSA, TMA).
Figure 46: EBITDA Margins vs. Peers
CY22
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
RKT HLN PG KVUE CL OR CHD ELF EL COTYULVR KMB BEI CLX NWL HNST
EBITDA Margin Average Median
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.; *OLPX EBITDA Margin 60.9% removed for ease of comparison.
Balance Sheet, FCF, CapEx
Following the company(cid:726)s IPO, balance sheet leverage is around 2.1x net debt to trailing
12-month adjusted EBITDA (or roughly 2.4-2.5x gross debt to trailing 12-month
adjusted EBITDA) assuming roughly $9.0 billion in senior notes and commercial paper
and roughly $1.2 billion in cash. With EBITDA growth and strong FCF generation, we
see KVUE deleveraging to around 1.8x net debt to BITDA by 2024 and 1.6x by 2025.
The company could potentially delever faster (or increase cash returns to shareholders)
in the event it doesn(cid:726)t pursue acquisitions as we believe the company is building in
cushion to its cash/balance sheet outlook to accommodate bolt-on M&A. Relative to its
peer set, KVUE(cid:726)s balance sheet leverage is largely middle of the pack with PG (1.2x)
and CL (1.6x) lower and HLN (3.6x) higher.
Figure 47: KVUE Leverage Outlook
3.0x
2.4x
2.5x 2.1x 2.2x 2.1x
2.0x 1.8x 1.9x
2.0x 1.6x
1.5x
1.0x
0.5x
0.0x
Post-IPO 2023E 2024E 2025E
Gross Debt to EBITDA Net Debt to EBITDA
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
From a free cash flow perspective, the company is targeting >100% FCF conversion (%
of adjusted net income) in each of 2023-2025, and we model for free cash flow to grow
at a three-year CAGR of +11% to $2.8 billion in 2025. The free cash flow outlook is
supported by solid adjusted EBITDA growth (as described above) and some tailwind
from working capital management as inventory normalizes following a step-up in 2022
(more below), which more than offsets cash separation costs expected to be incurred
from 2023-2025 (around $595M post-tax) and some step-up in capital expenditures.
We note that 2022 was a tougher year from a cash flow perspective (FCF conversion
79% and overall FCF -27% YOY) as the company had a significant working capital
headwind due to supply chain disruption, inflation, and also building inventory ahead of
the JNJ separation (safety stock). As we mentioned, we expect inventory normalization
to be a tailwind to free cash flow ahead, and we model for working capital as a percent
of sales to decline from 16.8% in 2022 to 13.5% in 2025.
Figure 48: KVUE Free Cash Flow Outlook
$3,000 120%
$2,500 100%
$2,000 80%
$1,500 60%
$1,000 40%
$500 20%
$0 0%
2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E
FCF $m (left-axis) FCF % of adj. Net Income (right-axis)
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Figure 49: KVUE Working Capital Outlook
$3,000 17.7% 20.0%
16.8%
15.2% 18.0%
$2,500 13.6% 12.9% 14.0% 13.5% 16.0%
$2,000 14.0%
12.0%
$1,500 10.0%
8.0%
$1,000 6.0%
$500 4.0%
2.0%
$0 0.0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E
Net Working Capital Net Working Capital % of Sales
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Capital expenditures begin to step up slightly in 2023 (we model for 2.7% of sales from
2.5% in 2022 and 2.0% in 2021) and a bit more in 2024/2025 (3.0% of sales), although
the historical level is not necessarily apples to apples as the 2.0% range didn(cid:726)t allocate
enterprise-level costs that are now incurred as a stand-alone company. Capital
investments will likely continue to focus on digitization of the supply chain and also
building out capacity for growth.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
KVUE(cid:726)s capital expenditures are generally lower than peers historically, although we do
expect a step-up ahead as the company works to build capacity and capabilities as a
stand-alone company. As of 2022, KVUE(cid:726)s 2.5% capital expenditures as a percent of
sales benchmarks below peer average of 3.1% and median 3.3%, but we also note that
KVUE is relatively more asset light vs. HPC peers with 44% of volumes produced
externally. For comparison CLX has returned to a more normalized 80/20 split between
in-house and external manufacturing from around 50/50 during the pandemic.
Figure 50: Capital Expenditures vs. Peers
CY22
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
BEI EL KMB CL PG COTY OR CHD NWL CLX RKT HLN ULVRKVUEENRHNST ELF OLPX
CapEx % of Sales Average Median
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
KVUE announced its intention to pay a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share
beginning in 3Q23 (fiscal quarter ending October 1, 2023), which at the current price of
$26.30 implies an annualized dividend yield of about 3.0% (at the IPO price of $22,
the annualized dividend yield was closer to 3.6%). Looking ahead, we expect the
company to target an annual dividend payout ratio of around 55-65% (JPMe 2024E
64%), and we model for 3% dividend growth in both 2023 and 2024 as the company
targets moderate growth in dividend per share.
Figure 51: KVUE Dividend Yield Compares Favorably to Peers Even after Share Rally
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
ULVR KMB NWL KVUE CLX RKT PG CL HLN OR EL CHD BEI COTY ELF HNSTOLPX
Dividend Yield Average Median
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. and J.P Morgan estimates.
Other capital allocation priorities include likely bolt-on M&A. We see management
budgeting roughly $500-750M per annum for acquisitions, although we don(cid:726)t build in
any benefit from M&A into our model, and as such the M&A (cid:728)placeholder(cid:729) could lead
to increased cash returns to shareholders. At this point, we expect share repurchases to
be limited to offset share creep from stock-based compensation expense, although the
company could look to evaluate opportunistic share repurchases over time.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Valuation
KVUE Deserves Premium to HLN with Potential to Converge to
CL over Time
Initial Discount Is an Opportunity, in Our View Should Fade Post Spin/Split
KVUE shares were priced at $22 at the IPO (toward the high end of initial $20-23
range) and closed +22.3% higher on its first day of trading on May 4, 2023. As of May
26, KVUE shares remain +19.5% above the IPO price. From a valuation perspective, at
the IPO price KVUE shares implied around 13.3x/12.7x our 2023E/2024E EBITDA
estimate and 19.9x/19.3x our 2023E/2024E EPS including amortization of definite life
intangible assets (or 17.7x/17.4x 2023E/2024E EPS excluding amortization of definite
life intangible assets as the company reports its adjusted earnings). Following the IPO,
KVUE now trades at 15.5x/14.7x our 2023/2024 EBITDA estimates and 23.8x/23.1x
our 2023/2024 EPS estimates.
We view the discounted valuation implied at the IPO price and attractive dividend yield
(~3.6% at IPO) as compensating investors for potential overhangs arising from 1) JNJ
still owning ~89.6% of KVUE shares post-IPO with the intention to make a tax-free
distribution of additional shares likely by the end of 2023 (i.e., reduce ownership below
20%); and 2) KVUE retaining potential outside–North America liabilities tied to talc
litigation. We also believe JNJ wanted to set KVUE up for a successful offering given it
would still own such a meaningful stake in the business (i.e., price the ~10.4% well so it
would have better monetization on remaining ownership).
De-Consolidation Process on a Tax-Free Spin-Off or Split
On the potential overhang from additional liquidity coming to the market, we highlight a
few items to consider: 1) there are a number of ways ways JNJ could effect reducing its
stake – a spin-off (i.e., pro-rata distribution of KVUE shares to current JNJ shareholder)
or a split-off (i.e., exchange of JNJ shares for KVUE shares often at a discount), with a
split-off more of an (cid:728)active(cid:729) decision to hold KVUE shares and thus may limit selling
pressure; 2) JNJ could decide to delay and/or not pursue a distribution of shares pending
market conditions; and 3) while there is a 180-day lock-up on selling/disposing of
shares post-IPO, our understanding is that the provision can be waived by the
underwriters. There are a number of precedent transactions including recently the split-
off of Elanco (ELAN) from Lilly (LLY) in 2019 whereby LLY offered exchange for
ELAN shares at a 7% discount and in 2013 the split-off of Zoetis (ZTS) from Pfizer
(PFE) whereby PFE offered exchange for ZTS shares at a 7% discount.
Talc Liability Outside the US & Canada
On the potential talc liability, JNJ management on April 27 stated, (cid:728)As unequivocally
and unambiguously stated, Johnson & Johnson has agreed to retain all the talc-related
liabilities – and indemnify Kenvue for any and all costs – arising from litigation in the
United States and Canada.(cid:729) KVUE will retain potential liabilities relating to talc
litigation outside of North America, but our understanding is that as of now there are
only a handful of active claims outside of the U.S. and Canada, but to date KVUE
management has not recorded any reserve liabilities relating to these claims, and the tort
laws and consumer protections outside of the U.S. and Canada are not as robust. KVUE
plans to discontinue the sale of talc-based Baby Powder globally this year (already
discontinued in the U.S. and Canada).
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Benchmarking Against Peers – HLN Anchor at Low End,
Already at CL Levels, PG Aspirational
The closest peer to KVUE, in our view, is Haleon (HLN, covered by Celine Pannuti)
given similar category exposures (e.g., pain relief, cold, cough, allergy, oral), financial
metrics (e.g., sales, EBITDA, growth outlook), and geographic exposures (KVUE ~70%
developed markets vs. HLN roughly two-thirds). HLN was also formed as a result of a
carve-out from a larger pharma company (GSK in this case).
There are some differences between the companies. From a financial perspective,
KVUE has a more attractive dividend yield (~3.0% vs. HLN 1.6%) and lower leverage
(2.1x net-debt-to-EBITDA vs. HLN 3.6x). KVUE has exposure to faster growing
categories like Skin Health & Beauty, while HLN has exposure to (typically) faster
growing categories like VMS (notwithstanding post-COVID normalization and
somewhat discretionary nature of products); while overall DM/EM exposure is similar,
KVUE has higher exposure to North America (~50%) vs. HLN (~37%) and lower
exposure to EMEA and LatAm (KVUE ~29% combined vs. HLN ~39%), while APAC
exposure is similar (KVUE 21%, HLN 23%). The most important difference, in our
view, is the stronger brand portfolio of KVUE with seven brands in a number 1 position
globally, while HLN claims a number 1 position in digestive health and therapeutic oral
health (under sensitive franchise for Sensodyne). That said, overall it appears that in the
U.S. at least in categories with direct competitive entries from both KVUE and HLN
that KVUE holds the edge in household penetration (e.g., allergy, cough, cough, and flu,
pain relief) based on Numerator data.
Post-IPO, KVUE(cid:726)s valuation multiple has already migrated close to U.S.-based peer
Colgate-Palmolive (CL, OW-rated), which also has similar financial KPIs.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Table 2: KVUE Key KPIs and Valuation vs. Direct Peer Set
Company Geographic and Segment Mix
Kenvue (KVUE) Haleon (HLN) Colgate-Palmolive (CL)* The Procter & Gamble Company (PG)
Geographic Exposure (Sales)
North America 50% 38% 21% --
US 44% 34% 33% 45%
APAC 21% 23% 16% --
EMEA & LatAM 29% 39% 42%
EMEA 21% -- -- --
LatAM 8% -- -- --
International 56% 66% 67% 54%
Pet -- -- 21% --
Self Care - 40% of sales - Tylenol, Zyrtec, Health Care - 14% of sales - Crest, Oral-B, Vicks,
Pain Relief - 23% of sales - Advil, Panadol, Oral Care - 43% of sales - Colgate, Sorriso,
Nicorette, Motrin, Zarbee's, Orsl, Benadryl, ZzzQuil, Pepto-Bismol, Clearblue, Align,
Voltaren Tom's of Maine, elmex, hello
Rhinocort Metamucil
Skin Health & Beauty - 29% of sales - Personal Care - 19% of sales - Softsoap, Speed
Beauty - 18% of sales - Olay, SK-II, Native, Old
Neutrogena, Aveeno, OGX, Dabao, Lubriderm, Respiratory Health - 15% of sales - Theraflu, Stick, Lady Speed Stick, Irish Spring, Tom's of
Spice, Head & Shoulders, Herbal Essences,
Rogaine, Clean&Clear, Dr.Ci:Labo, Le Petit Otrivin, Flonase Maine, Filorga, eltaMD, Protex, Sanex, Palmolive,
Pantene
Marseillais PCA Skin
Essential Health - 31% of sales - Listerine, Band- Fabric & Home Care - 35% of sales - Tide, Gain,
Oral - 27% of sales - Sensodyne, Paradontax, Home Care - 17% of sales - Palmolive, Suavitel,
Segment & Key Brands Aid, Johnson's, Neosporin, Stayfree, o.b., Bounce, Downy, Ariel, Dawn, Cascade, Febreze,
Polident, Biotene Ajax, Fabuloso
Carefree Swiffer, Mr. Clean
Baby, Feminine, and Family Care - 25% of
VMS - 15% of sales - Centrum, Emergen-C,
Pet - 21% of sales - Hill's Pet Nutrition sales - Pampers, Luvs, Bounty, Charmin, Puffs,
Caltrate
Tampax, Always
Digestive Health & Other - 19% of sales - Tums,
Grooming - 8% of sales - Gillette, Braun, Venus
Preparation H, Eno, Fenistil
Financial & Valuation Metrics
Kenvue (KVUE) Haleon (HLN) Colgate-Palmolive (CL)* The Procter & Gamble Company (PG)
CY22 Net Sales ($B) $15.0 $13.4 $18.0 $80.3
CY23-CY25 Organic Sales CAGR 4.7% 4.8% 4.9% 4.5%
CY22 adjusted EBITDA ($B) $3.6 $3.4 $4.2 $20.1
CY22 adjusted EBITDA Margin 24.1% 25.1% 23.5% 25.0%
CY23-CY25 EBITDA CAGR 6.1% 6.2% 7.0% 8.4%
Net-Debt-to-TTM EBITDA 2.1x 3.6x 1.9x 1.4x
Dividend Yield 3.0% 1.6% 2.7% 2.5%
2023 EV/EBITDA 15.5x 14.0x 15.8x 17.8x
2024 EV/EBITDA 14.7x 13.3x 14.7x 16.7x
2023 P/E 23.8x 18.3x 24.3x 23.9x
2024 P/E 23.1x 16.9x 22.2x 21.9x
Source: Company reports, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan estimates.; *CL North America ex-Pet but U.S. includes Pet
Beyond HLN, CL, and PG, we also compare KVUE to additional companies with
exposure to the Consumer Health space and also a broader basket of HPC and Beauty
companies given KVUE(cid:726)s presence in the face care, body care, and sun care categories
as well as baby care. KVUE sales growth and margin outlook are largely comparable
across the Consumer Health and HPC & Beauty peers on average (e.g., HPC & Beauty
weighted average 2023-2024E sales CAGR +5.1% with 2023E EBITDA margins
~23.2% and Consumer Health weighted-average 2023-2024E sales CAGR +3.1% with
2023E EBITDA margins ~25.4% vs. KVUE 2023-2024E sales CAGR +4.4% with
2023E EBITDA margins 24.2%).
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T h is d o c u m e n t is b e in g p r o v id e d f o r t h e e x c lu s iv e u s e o f D A V I D W A N G a t M A R L O W E P A R T N E R S L P .
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Table 3: Comparable Analysis for KVUE
Enterprise
JPM JPM Price (LC) JPM Price Dividend Market Cap Value EV/EBITDA Hist. Fwd EV/EBITDA Avg.
Company Ticker Analyst Rating 5/26/2023 Target Yield (USD mn) (USD mn) 2022 2023E 2024E 1-yr 2-yr 5-yr
Consumer Health
Beiersdorf BEI GR Pannuti N 123.90 112 0.6% 33,471 25,316 17.1x 14.9x 13.8x 14.8x 14.7x 15.1x
Bayer BAYN GR Vosser N 54.32 60 4.4% 57,208 95,239 6.6x 7.2x 6.7x 6.7x 6.9x 7.6x
Haleon HLN LN Pannuti UW 3.30 3 0.7% 37,617 49,816 14.8x 14.0x 13.3x 12.9x 12.9x 12.9x
Reckitt Benckiser Group RKT LN Pannuti OW 64.16 75 2.9% 56,731 66,275 14.0x 13.4x 12.7x 13.2x 13.9x 14.6x
Sanofi SAN FP Vosser OW 99.40 105 3.6% 134,490 141,743 9.0x 9.0x 8.5x 8.6x 9.1x 9.8x
Unilever ULVR LN Pannuti UW 41.69 39 3.6% 129,635 159,456 13.0x 12.8x 12.0x 12.5x 12.5x 13.3x
AVERAGE 12.4x 11.9x 11.2x 11.4x 11.7x 12.2x
WTD. AVERAGE 11.6x 11.3x 10.6x 10.9x 11.1x 11.8x
MEDIAN 13.5x 13.1x 12.3x 12.7x 12.7x 13.1x
HPC & Beauty
Colgate-Palmolive CL Teixeira OW 76.21 87 2.5% 63,221 71,538 16.9x 15.8x 14.7x 15.8x 15.8x 15.5x
Procter & Gamble PG Teixeira OW 145.40 168 2.6% 342,703 389,376 19.1x 17.8x 16.7x 16.9x 17.2x 16.4x
Church & Dwight CHD Teixeira UW 93.97 86 1.2% 22,953 25,616 20.8x 19.4x 18.3x 17.3x 18.1x 18.2x
Kimberly-Clark KMB Teixeira UW 136.30 139 3.5% 45,985 54,237 16.6x 14.4x 13.4x 14.0x 13.8x 12.8x
Clorox CLX Teixeira UW 159.09 158 3.0% 19,667 22,617 24.9x 32.2x 17.2x 18.5x 18.1x 17.4x
Newell Brands NWL Teixeira OW 8.73 14 3.2% 3,615 9,596 7.7x 9.0x 7.9x 9.0x 9.4x 10.3x
Estee Lauder EL Teixeira OW 194.44 224 1.4% 69,495 74,877 23.1x 29.9x 19.7x 21.3x 23.0x 21.5x
e.l.f. ELF Teixeira OW 101.28 102 N/A 5,456 5,596 51.6x 39.5x 34.6x 26.1x 23.2x 19.6x
L'Oreal OR FP Pannuti N 411.00 400 1.5% 236,141 239,811 24.9x 22.8x 21.0x 20.4x 22.6x 21.2x
Olaplex OLPX Teixeira UW 3.29 5 N/A 2,153 2,546 5.9x 9.4x 8.4x 12.4x 18.2x 18.2x
Reynolds Consumer Products REYN Teixeira OW 27.11 31 3.4% 5,693 7,778 14.2x 12.6x 11.6x 12.4x 12.4x 12.2x
Coty COTY Teixeira N 11.03 12 N/A 9,406 14,318 15.2x 14.1x 13.0x 12.4x 13.2x 12.6x
AVERAGE 20.1x 19.7x 16.4x 16.4x 17.1x 16.3x
WTD. AVERAGE 21.0x 20.3x 17.9x 18.0x 18.9x 17.9x
MEDIAN 18.0x 16.8x 15.7x 16.4x 17.6x 16.9x
Kevnue KVUE Teixeira OW 26.30 29.00 3.0% 50,362 58,714 16.3x 15.5x 14.7x -- -- --
JPM JPM Price (LC) JPM Price P/E Hist. Fwd P/E Avg. FCF Yield
Company Ticker Analyst Rating 5/26/2023 Target 2022 2023E 2024E 1-yr 2-yr 5-yr 2022 2023E 2024E
Consumer Health
Beiersdorf BEI GR Pannuti N 123.90 112 33.9x 31.6x 28.7x 28.6x 29.0x 28.8x 0.9% 2.6% 2.7%
Bayer BAYN GR Vosser N 54.32 60 6.8x 7.7x 7.1x 7.1x 7.4x 8.4x 5.8% 7.1% 11.1%
Haleon HLN LN Pannuti UW 3.30 3 17.9x 18.3x 16.9x 16.0x 16.0x 16.0x 5.3% 5.0% 5.7%
Reckitt Benckiser Group RKT LN Pannuti OW 64.16 75 18.8x 18.8x 17.4x 17.7x 18.6x 19.2x 4.4% 5.4% 6.1%
Sanofi SAN FP Vosser OW 99.40 105 12.0x 12.1x 11.2x 11.0x 11.8x 12.6x 6.6% 6.6% 7.6%
Unilever ULVR LN Pannuti UW 41.69 39 16.2x 16.4x 15.2x 17.7x 17.7x 18.7x 5.3% 6.3% 6.7%
AVERAGE 17.6x 17.5x 16.1x 16.4x 16.8x 17.3x 4.7% 5.5% 6.6%
WTD. AVERAGE 15.6x 15.6x 14.4x 15.0x 15.4x 16.2x 5.3% 6.0% 7.1%
HPC & Beauty
Colgate-Palmolive CL Teixeira OW 76.21 87 25.7x 24.3x 22.2x 24.0x 23.8x 23.5x 2.9% 4.0% 4.5%
Procter & Gamble PG Teixeira OW 145.40 168 25.5x 23.9x 21.9x 23.5x 23.9x 23.0x 3.4% 4.5% 4.7%
Church & Dwight CHD Teixeira UW 93.97 86 31.6x 30.2x 27.9x 26.7x 27.7x 27.4x 3.1% 3.0% 3.7%
Kimberly-Clark KMB Teixeira UW 136.30 139 24.2x 21.8x 19.6x 20.9x 20.3x 18.9x 4.0% 4.5% 4.9%
Clorox CLX Teixeira UW 159.09 158 38.3x 30.2x 26.3x 30.4x 28.7x 26.3x 3.7% 3.9% 4.4%
Newell Brands NWL Teixeira OW 8.73 14 5.6x 9.0x 6.8x 10.0x 11.3x 11.4x -16.2% 12.3% 15.9%
Estee Lauder EL Teixeira OW 194.44 224 37.2x 56.6x 32.9x 35.0x 37.5x 35.2x 1.4% 1.7% 3.5%
e.l.f. ELF Teixeira OW 101.28 102 74.5x 53.4x 51.4x 44.2x 40.4x 36.0x 1.4% 1.8% 2.3%
L'Oreal OR FP Pannuti N 411.00 400 36.5x 34.2x 31.3x 31.2x 35.5x 33.6x 2.2% 3.1% 3.3%
Olaplex OLPX Teixeira UW 3.29 5 7.3x 12.9x 10.9x 17.2x 26.1x 26.1x 11.8% 11.6% 10.4%
Reynolds Consumer Products REYN Teixeira OW 27.11 31 21.2x 20.2x 17.6x 18.7x 17.6x 16.9x 1.6% 6.8% 5.6%
Coty COTY Teixeira N 11.03 12 31.5x 20.1x 22.6x 23.2x 28.4x 24.2x 4.8% 3.6% 5.7%
AVERAGE 29.9x 28.1x 24.3x 25.4x 26.8x 25.2x 2.0% 5.1% 5.7%
WTD. AVERAGE 30.3x 29.9x 25.8x 26.8x 28.4x 27.1x 2.8% 3.8% 4.2%
MEDIAN 28.6x 24.1x 22.4x 23.7x 26.9x 25.2x 3.0% 3.9% 4.6%
Kevnue KVUE Teixeira OW 26.30 29.00 22.3x 23.8x 23.1x -- -- -- 4.0% 4.8% 4.9%
Source: Company reports, Bloomberg Finance L.P., and J.P. Morgan estimates.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Price Target Derivation
We see investors gravitating toward EV/EBITDA to inform valuation for KVUE given
that the company(cid:726)s treatment of amortization of definite life intangible assets will make
P/E less comparable to peers based on what the company will report as its adjusted
earnings, although we will also present an EPS including amortization of definite life
intangibles to make the comparison more apples to apples. We also added a discounted
cash flow valuation to where the stock could trade over the medium to longer term as
the company continues to execute against its growth priorities and improves margins.
To determine our target multiples for KVUE we use a blended average based on the
comparable analysis discussed above. Given KVUE(cid:726)s characteristics similar to HLN, we
view it as the most direct comparable company and see investors anchoring valuation
against it for now – as such in our target multiple analysis we assign a one-third
weighting to HLN(cid:726)s multiple. We ascribe a one-third weighting to other Consumer
Health peers and one-third weighting to HPC & Beauty peers (i.e., in total two-thirds
weighting to Consumer Health and one-third to HPC & Beauty). The lower weighting to
higher-multiple HPC & Beauty seems fair to us given generally slower growth/margin
profile vs. Beauty peers historically and less everyday use vs. HPC peers. We then
assign a 70% weighting to EV/EBITDA as the primary valuation metric and 30% to
DCF as a secondary metric. As such, our Dec 2023 price target embeds an EV/EBITDA
multiple of 15.1x, which is 0.4x below the current 2023E multiple for KVUE.
Table 4: EV/EBITDA Multiple for Peer Sets
Target Multiple Blend
EV/EBITDA Weighting Multiple
Haleon 33% 13.9x
Consumer Health ex-Haleon 33% 11.2x
HPC & Beauty 33% 20.2x
Total 100% 15.1x
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. and J.P. Morgan.
Our Dec 2023 price target of $29 is based on a blended average of the above multiples
against our 2024 EBITDA estimate and a DCF value of $32 (based on perpetual growth
method). Our target price implies 10% upside from the May 26 close on top of a ~3%
dividend yield.
Table 5: Method 1: EV/EBITDA Derivation
Price Target Methodology on EV/EBITDA Dec-23
CY2024 EBITDA $ mn $3,983
Target Multiple 15.1x
(-) Post IPO Net Debt $ mn $7,820
# of shares 2023E mn 1 ,935
2023 Implied Price Target $27
Upside/Downside 2.4%
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
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T h is d o c u m e n t is b e in g p r o v id e d f o r t h e e x c lu s iv e u s e o f D A V I D W A N G a t M A R L O W E P A R T N E R S L P .
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Table 6: Method 3: DCF Derivation
$ m, except per share value
Terminal Value (Perpetual Growth)
CY2033E Unlevered Free Cash Flow $3,687
Long-Term Growth Rate 1.0%
Terminal Value $79,813
Equity Value (Perpetual Growth)
Present Value of Terminal Value $44,541
Present Value of Unlevered Free Cash Flows $25,496
-Net Debt $7,820
Equity Value $62,217
Equity Value per Share $32
Shares Outstanding 1,935
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
Table 7: Blended Price Target Implies ~10% Upside from Current Levels
Price Target Methodology Dec-23
Mix of EV/EBITDA 70%
Mix of DCF 30%
Blended $29.00
Upside from last price 10.1%
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
For additional context, we offer the assumptions underlying our discounted cash flows
analysis through 2033 and sensitivity tables using both an EBITDA exit multiple and
perpetual growth that points to meaningful upside potential in KVUE shares to the low-
to mid-$30s range. Underlying our DCF analysis, we assume a weighted-average cost of
capital of around 5.7% based on a beta of 0.73, risk-free rate of 3.8%, market risk
premium of 4.8%, a marginal cost of debt of 5.0%, low-single-digit organic top-line
growth through 2033 (decelerating from 4.8% reported in CY2023E to 2% in
CY2033E), with the company expanding margins at an average 25 basis points
thereafter, modest headwind from use of working capital, and capital expenditures of 3-
4% of sales annually.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Table 8: KVUE DCF
$ m
WACC Calculation
Beta 0.73
Risk-free rate 3.8%
Market risk premium 4.8%
Cost of Equity 7.3%
Marginal cost of debt 5.0%
Tax rate 25.6%
After-tax cost of debt 3.7%
Equity weight 55.2%
Debt weight 44.8%
WACC 5.7%
Unlevered Free Cash Flow Analysis 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
$ m CY2022 CY2023 CY2024 CY2025 CY2026 CY2027 CY2028 CY2029 CY2030 CY2031 CY2032 CY2033
Sales $14,950.0 $15,662.3 $16,289.0 $16,972.8 $17,651.7 $18,307.3 $18,935.0 $19,530.1 $20,088.1 $20,604.7 $21,075.6 $21,497.1
EBIT $2,961.8 $3,163.6 $3,343.9 $3,673.8 $3,864.9 $4,054.2 $4,240.5 $4,422.6 $4,599.2 $4,769.0 $4,930.7 $5,083.0
Tax Rate 22.8% 25.6% 25.7% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5%
After-tax EBIT $2,286.0 $2,352.5 $2,485.4 $2,737.6 $2,879.9 $3,021.0 $3,159.9 $3,295.6 $3,427.1 $3,553.7 $3,674.1 $3,787.7
+D&A $644.0 $633.8 $639.5 $634.5 $655.7 $678.8 $703.7 $730.7 $759.4 $789.9 $822.2 $856.1
+CapEx -$374.8 -$416.7 -$482.2 -$504.2 -$529.6 -$576.7 -$624.9 -$673.8 -$718.2 -$762.4 -$806.1 -$849.1
+Net Change in Working Capital -$672.0 $133.5 $99.4 -$3.8 -$88.3 -$91.5 -$94.7 -$97.7 -$100.4 -$103.0 -$105.4 -$107.5
Unlevered Free Cash Flow $1,883.3 $2,703.1 $2,742.0 $2,864.0 $2,917.8 $3,031.6 $3,144.1 $3,254.8 $3,368.0 $3,478.2 $3,584.8 $3,687.2
YOY % 43.5% 1.4% 4.5% 1.9% 3.9% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9%
Present Value of Unlevered Free Cash Flow $1,883.3 $2,617.6 $2,512.9 $2,484.0 $2,394.9 $2,354.8 $2,311.3 $2,264.4 $2,217.5 $2,167.2 $2,113.9 $2,057.7
Assumptions CY2022 CY2023 CY2024 CY2025 CY2026 CY2027 CY2028 CY2029 CY2030 CY2031 CY2032 CY2033
Sales Growth -0.7% 4.8% 4.0% 4.2% 4.0% 3.7% 3.4% 3.1% 2.9% 2.6% 2.3% 2.0%
EBIT Margin 19.8% 20.2% 20.5% 21.6% 21.9% 22.1% 22.4% 22.6% 22.9% 23.1% 23.4% 23.6%
CapEx % of Sales 2.5% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3% 3.5% 3.6% 3.7% 3.8% 4.0%
Change in Net Working Capital % of Sales -4.5% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5%
Source: Company reports, Bloomberg Finance L.P, Damodaran Online, and J.P. Morgan estimates.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Table 9: KVUE DCF Sensitivity Based on Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiples
Discount Rate
$31 4.2% 4.7% 5.2% 5.7% 6.2% 6.7% 7.2%
11x $32 $31 $29 $28 $27 $26 $24
Terminal 12x $34 $33 $31 $30 $28 $27 $26
Value 13x $36 $35 $33 $31 $30 $29 $27
EBITDA 14x $38 $36 $35 $33 $32 $30 $29
Multiple
15x $40 $38 $37 $35 $33 $32 $30
16x $42 $40 $38 $37 $35 $33 $32
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
Table 10: KVUE DCF Sensitivity Based on Perpetual Growth Rate
Discount Rate
$32 4.2% 4.7% 5.2% 5.7% 6.2% 6.7% 7.2%
0.0% $40 $35 $31 $28 $25 $23 $21
0.5% $44 $38 $34 $30 $27 $24 $22
Long-Term
1.0% $50 $42 $37 $32 $29 $26 $23
Growth
1.5% $58 $48 $41 $35 $31 $27 $25
Rate
2.0% $69 $55 $46 $39 $34 $30 $26
2.5% $87 $66 $53 $44 $37 $32 $28
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Most Recent Point of Sales Trends in the
U.S. (NielsenIQ)
Tracked Channel 4Y CAGR Accelerated Sequentially QTD in the U.S. Based on
NielsenIQ
The most recent tracked channel data (QTD for 5-weeks ending 5/6) shows that
KVUE(cid:726)s dollar takeaway (total company in tracked channel) was up +4.2% driven by
pricing (up +14.5%) while volumes were down -9.0%. This print shows a sequential
deceleration (only on the headline but when normalizing for the pandemic, it accelerated
on a 4-year CAGR) from 12-week period ending 4/1 (bracketing Q123) in which
KVUE(cid:726)s dollar takeaway was up +5.5% (pricing up +11.9% while volume was down -
5.7%). It also decelerated slightly from the 12-week period ending 12/31/22 (bracketing
4Q22) which was up +4.4% (pricing up +11.0% but volume down -5.9%). On a 4Y
CAGR basis, takeaway was up +4.1% for the 12-week period ending 12/31, +1.5% for
the 12-week period ending 4/01 and +2.3% in the 5-week period ending 5/06.
Figure 52: KVUE(cid:726)s $ Takeaway in Tracked Channels Driven by Pricing
Rolling 12W Period Ending 5/06
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
1111111111111222222222222233333
2222222222222222222222222222222
/6/3/3/0/8/5/3/1/8/5/3/0/8/5/2/2/9/7/4/2/0/7/4/2/9/7/4/1/1/8/6
1111000322221111000032221111100
/1/2/3/4/5/6/7/7/8/9/0/1/2/1/2/3/4/5/6/7/7/8/9/0/1/2/1/2/3/4/5
0000000000111000000000011100000
Sales Volume Pricing
Source: NielsenIQ, J.P. Morgan
Below we lay out some of the most recent POS trends in the U.S. and how KVUE
stacks up against peers among HPC companies. In the last 12 weeks, consumer
takeaway has been in the MSDs in the tracked channels measured by NielsenIQ in
the U.S., which places KVUE in the middle of the pack relative to peers, per the
tables below.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Figure 53: Takeaway Growth in Latest 4-Week Period (YOY change sorted by 4 weeks)
YOY % Change in $ Takeaway 4-Yr CAGR
$ Takeaway 1-Wk 4-Wk 12-Wk 52-Wk 1-Wk 4-Wk 12-Wk 52-Wk
HNST 27.8% 24.7% 25.1% 19.8% 22.2% 18.6% 18.7% 17.0%
CHD 6.1% 6.2% 7.8% 6.6% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.6%
CLX 5.4% 5.2% 7.9% 4.8% 4.4% 4.6% 4.9% 4.3%
PG 6.2% 4.9% 6.4% 6.2% 8.0% 7.1% 6.9% 6.9%
UNLVR 4.1% 4.3% 6.2% 8.6% 5.6% 5.6% 6.0% 5.8%
EPC -1.0% 4.0% 3.1% 4.7% 2.0% 3.0% 2.4% 1.7%
KVUE 2.7% 3.8% 5.4% 1.1% 2.6% 2.3% 1.7% 2.8%
KMB 4.2% 3.0% 3.4% 4.8% 3.3% 2.6% 2.2% 2.5%
REYN 7.8% 2.7% 7.9% 11.2% 8.1% 6.3% 8.1% 7.9%
ENR 1.0% 1.3% 1.9% 6.6% 4.3% 3.8% 4.1% 4.5%
CL 2.4% -0.2% 0.5% 4.8% 0.6% 1.0% 0.7% 2.0%
NWL -24.6% -20.2% -16.8% -11.2% -4.7% -3.7% -3.7% -2.5%
Source: NielsenIQ, J.P. Morgan. UNLVR (Unilever) is covered by Celine Pannuti.
Figure 54: Weekly Growth Rates for HPC Companies (YOY change sorted by latest week)
YOY % Change in Weekly $ Takeaway 4-Yr CAGR
$ Takeaway 04/15/23 04/22/23 04/29/23 05/06/23 04/15/23 04/22/23 04/29/23 05/06/23
HNST 13.4% 38.6% 19.7% 27.8% 13.5% 23.5% 15.6% 22.2%
REYN -0.8% 0.1% 4.1% 7.8% 5.3% 5.6% 6.3% 8.1%
PG -0.8% 11.3% 3.1% 6.2% 5.6% 9.4% 5.6% 8.0%
CHD 2.3% 11.9% 4.8% 6.1% 4.1% 7.6% 5.5% 5.7%
CLX 4.5% 9.5% 1.4% 5.4% 4.2% 5.8% 3.9% 4.4%
KMB -2.4% 9.4% 1.1% 4.2% 1.2% 4.1% 2.0% 3.3%
UNLVR -2.6% 10.4% 6.0% 4.1% 3.8% 7.5% 5.8% 5.6%
KVUE 0.8% 11.2% 1.1% 2.7% 1.6% 3.5% 1.6% 2.6%
CL -5.8% 5.8% -2.9% 2.4% -0.9% 3.1% 1.2% 0.6%
ENR 0.0% 6.1% -1.8% 1.0% 3.5% 4.6% 3.0% 4.3%
EPC 10.6% 14.3% -6.2% -1.0% 3.5% 4.7% 1.8% 2.0%
NWL -27.4% -11.5% -16.9% -24.6% -6.0% -1.1% -3.1% -4.7%
Source: NielsenIQ, J.P. Morgan. UNLVR (Unilever) is covered by Celine Pannuti.
Figure 55: Company $ Takeaway Figure 56: Company Takeaway 2-Year Stack
Y/Y % Change ranked high to low in latest 4-week period Current 4-Week Period Takeaway + YAGO vs. Previous 4-Week + YAGO
4-Wk 12-Wk 52-Wk Current Last Diff.
HNST 24.7% 25.1% 19.8% ENR 4.0% -6.7% 1076
CHD 6.2% 7.8% 6.6% KMB 16.1% 8.1% 797
CLX 5.2% 7.9% 4.8% EPC 12.5% 5.9% 656
PG 4.9% 6.4% 6.2% NWL -27.0% -31.6% 460
UNLVR 4.3% 6.2% 8.6% REYN 17.4% 13.5% 395
EPC 4.0% 3.1% 4.7% CL 5.2% 2.0% 320
KVUE 3.8% 5.4% 1.1% KVUE -1.1% -3.1% 201
KMB 3.0% 3.4% 4.8% CLX 5.7% 4.2% 147
REYN 2.7% 7.9% 11.2% UNLVR 10.5% 9.2% 129
ENR 1.3% 1.9% 6.6% PG 11.9% 11.2% 72
CL -0.2% 0.5% 4.8% CHD 11.5% 11.1% 41
NWL -20.2% -16.8% -11.2% HNST 35.7% 43.4% (771)
Source: NielsenIQ. J.P. Morgan Source: NielsenIQ. J.P. Morgan
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Figure 57: Y/Y % Change in Units Figure 58: Y/Y % Change in Price per Unit
Y/Y % Change ranked high to low in latest 4-week period Y/Y % Change ranked high to low in latest 4-week period
4-Wk 12-Wk 52-Wk 4-Wk 12-Wk 52-Wk
HNST 15.3% 12.6% 7.7% CL 15.5% 17.3% 14.8%
CHD 1.8% 1.9% -0.7% CLX 15.1% 16.1% 15.9%
PG -2.1% -0.8% -2.4% KVUE 14.5% 13.6% 10.6%
KMB -3.6% -4.5% -2.5% REYN 14.3% 12.6% 15.6%
UNLVR -5.3% -3.9% -4.8% EPC 11.0% 9.5% 9.4%
ENR -6.1% -8.5% -9.1% UNLVR 10.1% 10.5% 14.1%
EPC -6.3% -5.8% -4.3% HNST 8.1% 11.1% 11.3%
CLX -8.7% -7.1% -9.5% ENR 7.9% 11.3% 17.3%
KVUE -9.4% -7.2% -8.6% PG 7.1% 7.2% 8.8%
REYN -10.2% -4.1% -3.8% KMB 6.8% 8.3% 7.5%
CL -13.6% -14.3% -8.8% CHD 4.4% 5.8% 7.4%
NWL -21.7% -18.4% -15.1% NWL 1.8% 1.9% 4.6%
Source: NielsenIQ. J.P. Morgan Source: NielsenIQ. J.P. Morgan
Figure 59: Y/Y % Change in Velocity Figure 60: Y/Y % in Total Distribution Points
Y/Y % Change ranked high to low in latest 4-week period Y/Y % Change ranked high to low in latest 4-week period
4-Wk 12-Wk 52-Wk 4-Wk 12-Wk 52-Wk
KVUE 12.0% 12.1% 13.4% HNST 20.5% 21.2% 13.2%
CLX 10.9% 11.7% 7.3% CHD 1.3% 2.3% 0.2%
ENR 10.8% 13.5% 19.5% REYN 1.2% 1.7% -0.8%
KMB 7.2% 7.5% 6.8% PG 0.8% 1.8% 0.8%
CL 6.0% 6.8% 8.5% EPC 0.6% -1.8% -3.2%
UNLVR 4.9% 6.5% 14.2% UNLVR -0.5% -0.3% -4.9%
CHD 4.8% 5.3% 6.4% KMB -3.9% -3.8% -1.9%
PG 4.0% 4.5% 5.4% CLX -5.2% -3.4% -2.3%
HNST 3.5% 3.2% 5.8% CL -5.8% -5.9% -3.4%
EPC 3.4% 5.0% 8.2% KVUE -7.3% -6.0% -10.9%
REYN 1.5% 6.2% 12.1% ENR -8.6% -10.2% -10.8%
NWL -0.7% 0.1% 4.7% NWL -19.6% -16.9% -15.2%
Source: NielsenIQ. J.P. Morgan Source: NielsenIQ. J.P. Morgan
Figure 61: Y/Y% Change in TDP on Promotion Figure 62: Y/Y% Change in Promotional Efficiency
Y/Y % Change ranked high to low in latest 4-week period Y/Y % Change ranked high to low in latest 4-week period
4-Wk 12-Wk 52-Wk 4-Wk 12-Wk 52-Wk
HNST 3.5% 1.1% 0.0% NWL 6.0% 4.9% -0.2%
ENR 2.7% 1.8% 2.7% KVUE 5.3% 3.9% 0.2%
KVUE 2.1% 1.4% 0.9% HNST 4.3% -1.9% -0.3%
CHD 1.2% 0.7% 2.2% PG 2.9% 1.9% -1.6%
EPC 0.4% -1.1% -2.0% CHD 1.7% 2.0% 2.8%
CLX 0.2% 1.3% -0.3% CLX 1.6% 4.6% 3.0%
PG -0.7% -0.5% -0.9% UNLVR 0.7% -1.5% -0.4%
KMB -0.8% -0.3% -0.3% EPC 0.2% -0.7% -2.1%
UNLVR -1.4% 0.6% 0.3% ENR -0.3% 1.5% 0.0%
CL -1.5% -2.0% -1.3% CL -0.6% -1.6% -4.3%
REYN -3.3% -0.3% -1.7% REYN -1.0% -1.1% 2.6%
NWL -4.4% -0.9% 2.0% KMB -1.1% -2.8% -2.5%
Source: NielsenIQ. J.P. Morgan Source: NielsenIQ. J.P. Morgan
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T h is d o c u m e n t is b e in g p r o v id e d f o r t h e e x c lu s iv e u s e o f D A V I D W A N G a t M A R L O W E P A R T N E R S L P .
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Key Brands POS Performance in the U.S.
Below we have added the latest POS trends in the U.S. as per NielsenIQ data for some
of KVUE(cid:726)s iconic brands.
Figure 63: Summary of $ Takeaway in Tracked Channel
$ Takeaway (YOY) 4Y CAGR $ Takeaway (YOY)
12W Ending 5W Ending 12W Ending 5W Ending
12/31/2022 4/1/2023 5/6/2023 12/31/2022 4/1/2023 5/6/2023
KVUE 4.4% 5.5% 4.2% 4.1% 1.5% 2.3%
Listerine -0.3% 7.4% 10.7% 1.4% 0.2% 1.5%
Tylenol 13.7% 14.6% 4.8% 14.7% 8.5% 10.5%
Zyrtec 3.5% 3.3% 6.8% 7.8% 5.2% 4.8%
Benadryl 2.0% 4.5% 7.4% 6.3% 3.9% 4.4%
Aveeno -0.1% -0.9% 1.9% 2.0% 0.2% 0.9%
Neutrogena -0.3% 4.4% 5.8% -2.2% -3.1% -1.8%
Band Aid -0.2% 3.2% 7.2% 4.1% 3.8% 4.8%
Source: NielsenIQ. J.P. Morgan
The latest NielsenIQ data shows that Listerine(cid:726)s dollar takeaway was up +10.7% driven
by pricing, which was up +15.2%, while volume was down -3.9% in the latest five-
week period ending May 6. This is a sequential acceleration from the brand(cid:726)s dollar
takeaway for the 12-week period ending 4/1/23 (bracketing Q123), which was up +7.4%
(pricing up +10.7% while volume was down -2.9%) and also improved from the 12-
week period ending 12/31/22, where the headline takeaway was flat (-0.3%), broken out
into pricing up +8.1% but volume down -7.7%. We note that the uptick may be
attributable to easier comps in the base period, where headline takeaway was down -
7.7% (pricing up +2.3% but volume down -9.8%) in the five-week period ending 5/7/22.
Normalizing for the pandemic, takeaway was up +1.4% for the 12-week period ending
12/31, flat (+0.2%) for the 12-week period ending 4/01, and +1.5% for the five-week
period ending 5/06 on a four-year CAGR basis.
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T h is d o c u m e n t is b e in g p r o v id e d f o r t h e e x c lu s iv e u s e o f D A V I D W A N G a t M A R L O W E P A R T N E R S L P .
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Figure 64: $ Takeaway in Tracked Channels - Listerine
Rolling 12W Period Ending 5/06
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
1111111111111222222222222233333
2222222222222222222222222222222
/6/3/3/0/8/5/3/1/8/5/3/0/8/5/2/2/9/7/4/2/0/7/4/2/9/7/4/1/1/8/6
1111000322221111000032221111100
/1/2/3/4/5/6/7/7/8/9/0/1/2/1/2/3/4/5/6/7/7/8/9/0/1/2/1/2/3/4/5
0000000000111000000000011100000
Sales Volume Pricing
Source: NielsenIQ. J.P. Morgan
The most recent tracked channel data shows that Tylenol(cid:726)s dollar takeaway was up
+4.8% driven by pricing (up +12.8%) while volume was down (-7.1%) in the latest 5-
week period ending May 6. This print is a sequential deceleration on the headline (but
accelerated on a four-year CAGR) from the 12-week period ending 4/01, where
Tylenol(cid:726)s takeaway was up +14.6% (pricing +14.4%, volume flat or +0.2%). It also
decelerated from the 12-week period ending 12/31/22 in which the brand(cid:726)s takeaway
was up +13.7% (pricing up +12.8% and volume slightly up +0.9%). As it relates to four-
year CAGR, takeaway was up +14.7% for the 12-week period ending 12/31, +8.5% for
the 12-week period ending 4/01, and +10.5% for the five-week period ending 5/06.
Figure 65: $ Takeaway in Tracked Channels - Tylenol
Rolling 12W Period Ending 5/06
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0%
-50.0%
1111111111111222222222222233333
2222222222222222222222222222222
/6/3/3/0/8/5/3/1/8/5/3/0/8/5/2/2/9/7/4/2/0/7/4/2/9/7/4/1/1/8/6
1111000322221111000032221111100
/1/2/3/4/5/6/7/7/8/9/0/1/2/1/2/3/4/5/6/7/7/8/9/0/1/2/1/2/3/4/5
0000000000111000000000011100000
Sales Volume Pricing
Source: NielsenIQ. J.P. Morgan
The latest NielsenIQ data points to Zyrtec(cid:726)s consumption up +6.8% (pricing up +10.2%
while volume down -3.1%) in the latest five-week period ending May 6. This print is an
acceleration from dollar takeaway up +3.3% (pricing up +7.3%, volume down -3.8%) in
the 12-week period ending 4/01, and consumption up +3.5% (pricing up +7.6% but
volume down -3.8%) for the 12-week period ending 12/31/22. However, we note that
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T h is d o c u m e n t is b e in g p r o v id e d f o r t h e e x c lu s iv e u s e o f D A V I D W A N G a t M A R L O W E P A R T N E R S L P .
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
there has been a sequential deceleration on a four-year CAGR basis where Zyrtec(cid:726)s
takeaway was up +7.8% for the 12-week period ending 12/31, +5.2% for the 12-week
period ending 4/01, and +4.8% for the five-week period ending 5/06.
Figure 66: $ Takeaway in Tracked Channels - Zyrtec
Rolling 12W Period Ending 5/06
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
1111111111111222222222222233333
2222222222222222222222222222222
/6/3/3/0/8/5/3/1/8/5/3/0/8/5/2/2/9/7/4/2/0/7/4/2/9/7/4/1/1/8/6
1111000322221111000032221111100
/1/2/3/4/5/6/7/7/8/9/0/1/2/1/2/3/4/5/6/7/7/8/9/0/1/2/1/2/3/4/5
0000000000111000000000011100000
Sales Volume Pricing
Source: NielsenIQ. J.P. Morgan
The most recent tracked channel data shows that headline consumption for Benadryl
was up +7.4% (pricing up +16.3% but volume down -7.7%) for the five-week period
ending 5/06, which sequentially accelerated both on a headline and on four-year CAGR
basis. Benadryl(cid:726)s dollar takeaway was up +4.5% (pricing up +12.5%, volume down -
7.1%) for the 12-week period ending 4/1/23 and was up +2.0% (pricing up +11.2% but
volume down -8.3%) for the 12-week period ending 12/31/22. As it relates to four-year
CAGR, takeaway was up +6.3% for the 12-week period ending 12/31, +3.9% for the
12-week period ending 4/01, and +4.4% for the five-week period ending 5/06.
Figure 67: $ Takeaway in Tracked Channels - Benadryl
Rolling 12W Period Ending 5/06
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
1111111111111222222222222233333
2222222222222222222222222222222
/6/3/3/0/8/5/3/1/8/5/3/0/8/5/2/2/9/7/4/2/0/7/4/2/9/7/4/1/1/8/6
1111000322221111000032221111100
/1/2/3/4/5/6/7/7/8/9/0/1/2/1/2/3/4/5/6/7/7/8/9/0/1/2/1/2/3/4/5
0000000000111000000000011100000
Sales Volume Pricing
Source: NielsenIQ. J.P. Morgan
As per the most recent data from NielsenIQ, Aveeno(cid:726)s dollar takeaway was slightly up
+1.9%, with pricing (up +18.2%) being the main driver, while volume was down -
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T h is d o c u m e n t is b e in g p r o v id e d f o r t h e e x c lu s iv e u s e o f D A V I D W A N G a t M A R L O W E P A R T N E R S L P .
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
13.8% in the five-week period ending May 6. This is a sequential acceleration from the
12-week period ending 4/1/23, where headline consumption was slightly down -0.9%
(pricing up +13.9% while volume was down -13.0%). Dollar takeaway was flat (-0.1%),
broken out into pricing up +9.7% but volume down -8.9% in the 12-week period ending
12/31/22. The brand appears to have easier comps in the prior period, when headline
consumption was down -6.7% (flat or +0.3% pricing and -7.0% volume) in the five-
week period ending 5/7/22. On a four-year CAGR basis, takeaway was modestly up
+2.0% for the 12-week period ending 12/31 and was flat (+0.2%) for the 12-week
period ending 4/01, while it was slightly up sequentially by +0.9% for the five-week
period ending 5/06.
Figure 68: $ Takeaway in Tracked Channels - Aveeno
Rolling 12W Period Ending 5/06
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
1111111111111222222222222233333
2222222222222222222222222222222
/6/3/3/0/8/5/3/1/8/5/3/0/8/5/2/2/9/7/4/2/0/7/4/2/9/7/4/1/1/8/6
1111000322221111000032221111100
/1/2/3/4/5/6/7/7/8/9/0/1/2/1/2/3/4/5/6/7/7/8/9/0/1/2/1/2/3/4/5
0000000000111000000000011100000
Sales Volume Pricing
Source: NielsenIQ. J.P. Morgan
The latest tracked channel data point to Neutrogena(cid:726)s dollar takeaway improving with
consumption up +5.8% (pricing up +11.2%, volume down -4.9%) in the latest five-week
period ending May 6 and compares to dollar takeaway down -10.0% (pricing +0.5%,
volume -10.5%) in the prior period. As mentioned, this is a sequential acceleration from
the 12-week period ending 4/1/23 where the data shows that dollar takeaway was up
+4.4% (pricing was up +8.6% while volume was down -3.9%), and this too was a
sequential improvement from consumption slightly down (-0.3%, broken out into
pricing up +8.2% but volume down -7.8%) in the 12-week period ending 12/31/22.
Looking at longer term trends, four-year CAGR consumption was down -2.2% in the
12-week period ending 12/31/22 and decelerated to -3.1% in the 12-week period ending
4/01 but was less negative (down -1.8%) in the five-week period ending 5/06.
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T h is d o c u m e n t is b e in g p r o v id e d f o r t h e e x c lu s iv e u s e o f D A V I D W A N G a t M A R L O W E P A R T N E R S L P .
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Figure 69: $ Takeaway in Tracked Channels - Neutrogena
Rolling 12W Period Ending 5/06
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
1111111111111222222222222233333
2222222222222222222222222222222
/6/3/3/0/8/5/3/1/8/5/3/0/8/5/2/2/9/7/4/2/0/7/4/2/9/7/4/1/1/8/6
1111000322221111000032221111100
/1/2/3/4/5/6/7/7/8/9/0/1/2/1/2/3/4/5/6/7/7/8/9/0/1/2/1/2/3/4/5
0000000000111000000000011100000
Sales Volume Pricing
Source: NielsenIQ. J.P. Morgan
The most recent tracked channel data shows that Band Aid(cid:726)s dollar takeaway was up
+7.2%, with pricing (+16.8%) being the main driver, while volume was down -8.3%,
which improved from both consumption up +3.2% (pricing +12.1%, volume -7.9%) for
the 12-week period ending 4/1/23 and flat (-0.2%, pricing up +11.4% but volume down
-10.4%) in the 12-week period ending 12/31/22. The brand(cid:726)s four-year CAGR for
consumption was up +4.1% in the 12-week period ending 12/31/22, +3.8% in the 12-
week period ending 4/01, and +4.8% in the five-week period ending 5/06.
Figure 70: $ Takeaway in Tracked Channels - Band Aid
Rolling 12W Period Ending 5/06
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
1111111111111222222222222233333
2222222222222222222222222222222
/6/3/3/0/8/5/3/1/8/5/3/0/8/5/2/2/9/7/4/2/0/7/4/2/9/7/4/1/1/8/6
1111000322221111000032221111100
/1/2/3/4/5/6/7/7/8/9/0/1/2/1/2/3/4/5/6/7/7/8/9/0/1/2/1/2/3/4/5
0000000000111000000000011100000
Sales Volume Pricing
Source: NielsenIQ. J.P. Morgan
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T h is d o c u m e n t is b e in g p r o v id e d f o r t h e e x c lu s iv e u s e o f D A V I D W A N G a t M A R L O W E P A R T N E R S L P .
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Financial Statements
Income Statement Historical & Estimates
Table 11: KVUE Income Statement
$ million, except per share values
Income Statement 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E
Revenue 14,324 14,467 15,054 14,950 15,662 16,289 16,973
% change 1.0% 4.1% -0.7% 4.8% 4.0% 4.2%
Cost of goods sold 6,633 6,585 6,587 6,610 6,800 7,050 7,246
Amortization of definite life intangible assets 344 415 414 348 324 305 283
Gross profit, adjusted 8,035 8,297 8,881 8,688 9,186 9,544 10,010
as a % of revenue 56.1% 57.4% 59.0% 58.1% 58.7% 58.6% 59.0%
Change as % of revenue (bps) 125 164 (88) 54 (6) 38
Gross profit, adjusted incl.-Amortization of definite life intangible assets 7,691 7,882 8,467 8,340 8,862 9,239 9,727
as a % of revenue 53.7% 54.5% 56.2% 55.8% 56.6% 56.7% 57.3%
Change as % of revenue (bps) 79 176 (46) 80 14 59
Selling, general and administrative expenses 4,760 4,588 5,061 5,000 5,305 5,515 5,659
as a % of revenue 33.2% 31.7% 33.6% 33.4% 33.9% 33.9% 33.3%
Change as % of revenue (bps) (152) 191 (17) 42 (1) (51)
Research & development 391 320 355 375 412 421 434
as a % of revenue 2.7% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%
Change as % of revenue (bps) (51) 14 15 12 (4) (3)
Stock-based compensation expense (0) (0) (0) (0) 1 (0) 0
Other expense/(income) 149 (55) (28) 3 (19) (40) (40)
Operating Income, adjusted 2,736 3,444 3,493 3,310 3,487 3,648 3,957
as a % of revenue 19.1% 23.8% 23.2% 22.1% 22.3% 22.4% 23.3%
Change as % of revenue (bps) 471 (60) (106) 13 13 91
Operating Income, adjusted incl.-Amortization of definite life intangible assets 2,392 3,029 3,079 2,962 3,164 3,344 3,674
as a % of revenue 16.7% 20.9% 20.5% 19.8% 20.2% 20.5% 21.6%
Change as % of revenue (bps) 0.0% 42385.1% -4798.0% -6439.7% 3872.1% 3297.9% 11168.4%
Interest income 0 0 0 0 46 39 27
Interest expense 0 0 0 0 329 418 395
Other income/(expense) - - - - - - -
Pretax Income, adjusted 2,736 3,444 3,493 3,310 3,204 3,270 3,589
as a % of revenue 19.1% 23.8% 23.2% 22.1% 20.5% 20.1% 21.1%
Pretax Income, adjusted incl.-Amortization of definite life intangible assets 2,392 3,029 3,079 2,962 2,881 2,965 3,307
as a % of revenue 16.7% 20.9% 20.5% 19.8% 18.4% 18.2% 19.5%
Taxes, adjusted 679 741 782 721 800 819 896
Adjusted Tax Rate 24.8% 21.5% 22.4% 21.8% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
Taxes, adjusted incl.-Amortization of definite life intangible assets 667 703 731 676 739 761 843
Adjusted Tax Rate incl.-Amortization of definite life intangible assets 27.9% 23.2% 23.7% 22.8% 25.6% 25.7% 25.5%
Net Income adjusted (non-GAAP) 2,057 2,703 2,711 2,589 2,404 2,451 2,693
as a % of revenue 14.4% 18.7% 18.0% 17.3% 15.4% 15.0% 15.9%
Net Income adjusted incl.-Amortization of definite life intangible assets 1,725 2,326 2,349 2,286 2,142 2,204 2,464
as a % of revenue 12.0% 16.1% 15.6% 15.3% 13.7% 13.5% 14.5%
Diluted EPS, adjusted $1.06 $1.40 $1.40 $1.34 $1.24 $1.27 $1.39
% change 31% 0% -5% -7% 2% 10%
Diluted EPS, adjusted incl.-Amortization of definite life intangible assets $0.89 $1.20 $1.21 $1.18 $1.11 $1.14 $1.27
% change 35% 0% -3% -6% 3% 12%
Average Shares Outstanding - Diluted 1,935.1 1,935.1 1,935.1 1,935.1 1,935.1 1,935.1 1,935.1
Adjusted EBITDA 3,101 3,775 3,810 3,606 3,797 3,983 4,308
as a % of revenue 21.6% 26.1% 25.3% 24.1% 24.2% 24.5% 25.4%
Change as % of revenue (bps) 445 (78) (119) 13 21 93
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Balance Sheet Historical & Estimates
Table 12: KVUE Balance Sheet
$ million
Balance Sheet 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E
Cash and cash equivalents 7 52.0 6 17.6 7 40.0 1 ,231.4 1 ,014.1 1 ,012.8 9 80.9
Trade receivables, less allowances for credit losses 2 ,158.7 1 ,857.9 2 ,073.7 2 ,121.7 2 ,280.9 2 ,370.3 2 ,471.4
Inventories 1 ,779.3 1 ,685.1 1 ,701.8 2 ,226.3 1 ,957.5 1 ,852.3 1 ,818.7
Prepaid expenses & other current assets 3 35.1 2 75.3 2 54.2 1 70.7 1 78.9 1 87.6 1 93.8
Other current assets 1 17.4 1 61.6 1 54.0 1 23.4 1 23.4 1 23.4 1 23.4
Total Current Assets 5 ,142.5 4 ,597.6 4 ,923.7 5 ,873.7 5 ,554.8 5 ,546.3 5 ,588.2
PP&E, net 2 ,147.2 1 ,956.6 1 ,826.6 1 ,820.2 1 ,926.7 2 ,074.1 2 ,226.6
Intangible assets, net 1 1,490.0 1 1,610.4 1 0,701.2 9 ,853.5 9 ,904.9 1 0,100.3 1 0,567.4
Goodwill 9 ,726.4 1 0,326.1 9 ,810.1 9 ,184.6 9 ,184.6 9 ,184.6 9 ,184.6
Deferred taxes on income 1 82.4 1 93.3 1 88.7 1 43.9 1 43.9 1 43.9 1 43.9
Other assets 5 22.4 4 95.9 4 01.4 4 04.3 4 04.3 4 04.3 4 04.3
Total non-current Assets 2 4,068.4 2 4,582.3 2 2,927.9 2 1,406.4 2 1,564.3 2 1,907.1 2 2,526.7
Total Assets 2 9,210.9 2 9,179.8 2 7,851.6 2 7,280.0 2 7,119.1 2 7,453.4 2 8,115.0
Accounts payable 1 ,408.5 1 ,579.3 1 ,826.5 1 ,829.4 1 ,853.3 1 ,936.9 2 ,000.6
Accrued liabilities 8 02.5 1 ,014.0 1 ,023.6 9 06.3 9 39.6 9 85.3 1 ,017.7
Accrued rebates, returns and promotions 9 30.9 8 74.6 8 34.4 8 62.2 9 00.9 9 36.2 9 76.3
Accrued taxes on income 4 83.1 4 09.7 3 66.4 3 36.1 3 54.8 3 68.7 3 84.5
Other current liabilities - - - - - - -
Total Current Liabilities 3 ,625.1 3 ,877.7 4 ,051.0 3 ,934.0 4 ,048.6 4 ,227.1 4 ,379.1
Long-term debt, net of current maturities - - - - 8 ,512.1 8 ,309.8 8 ,121.7
Employee related obligations 3 03.4 3 45.0 3 02.2 2 13.5 2 13.5 2 13.5 2 13.5
Deferred taxes on income 2 ,467.2 2 ,781.7 2 ,729.0 2 ,462.8 2 ,462.8 2 ,462.8 2 ,462.8
Other long-term liabilities 7 26.7 8 04.7 7 54.0 7 27.0 7 27.0 7 27.0 7 27.0
Total Non-current Liabilities 3 ,497.3 3 ,931.4 3 ,785.2 3 ,403.3 1 1,915.4 1 1,713.0 1 1,525.0
Total Liabilities 7 ,122.4 7 ,809.1 7 ,836.2 7 ,337.2 1 5,964.0 1 5,940.1 1 5,904.1
Total Equity 2 2,088.5 2 1,370.7 2 0,015.4 1 9,942.8 1 1,155.2 1 1,513.3 1 2,210.9
Total Liabilities and Equity 2 9,210.9 2 9,179.8 2 7,851.6 2 7,280.0 2 7,119.1 2 7,453.4 2 8,115.0
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Cash Flow Historical & Estimates
Table 13: KVUE Cash Flow Statement
$ million
Cash Flow Statement 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E
Operating Activities
Net income 1 ,724.8 2 ,325.8 2 ,348.8 2 ,286.0 2 ,142.1 2 ,203.8 2 ,463.9
Post-tax amortization 3 32.1 3 77.2 3 62.4 3 02.7 2 80.9 2 64.4 2 45.5
Depreciation 3 65.1 3 31.3 3 17.4 2 96.0 3 10.2 3 34.9 3 51.7
Tax impact on amortization 1 2.1 3 8.0 5 1.1 4 5.3 4 2.7 4 0.2 3 7.3
Stock-based compensation expense 1 02.4 1 15.5 1 41.3 1 37.1 1 41.8 1 46.0 1 50.4
Other operating activities 1 46.0 2 4.0 2 0.3 1 3.0 - - -
Deferred income taxes 1 60.9 1 09.1 ( 159.2) ( 104.9) - - -
Other current and non-current assets 5 1.4 2 9.9 3 0.2 7 5.9 ( 8.1) ( 8.7) ( 6.2)
Accrued liabilities 4 0.6 1 23.0 4 9.8 ( 17.0) 7 2.1 8 1.0 7 2.5
Employee related obligations 3 .4 0 .2 1 3.7 2 .0 - - -
Accrued taxes on income 1 66.1 ( 82.9) ( 26.7) ( 6.8) 1 8.7 1 3.9 1 5.8
Other liabilities 1 15.4 8 5.0 ( 22.7) 4 9.7 - - -
Separation Costs - - - - ( 312.4) ( 222.0) ( 59.5)
Trade receivables 4 0.2 2 64.8 ( 303.1) ( 142.0) ( 159.2) ( 89.3) ( 101.1)
Inventories 1 80.0 1 08.9 ( 76.8) ( 582.0) 2 68.9 1 05.2 3 3.6
Accounts payable 2 .6 1 54.0 3 30.5 5 2.0 2 3.9 8 3.6 6 3.7
Net change in operating working capital 2 22.7 5 27.7 ( 49.4) ( 672.0) 1 33.5 9 9.4 ( 3.8)
Net cash (used in) provided by operating activities 3 ,443.1 4 ,003.7 3 ,077.2 2 ,407.1 2 ,821.4 2 ,953.0 3 ,267.5
Investing Activities
Purchase of property, plant and equipment ( 288.9) ( 229.0) ( 294.9) ( 374.8) ( 416.7) ( 482.2) ( 504.2)
Acquisitions, investments, and proceeds from disposal of assets/businesses/investments ( 1,866.1) 1 45.5 1 23.4 ( 14.9) ( 375.0) ( 500.0) ( 750.0)
Other - - - - - - -
Net cash (used in) provided by investing activities ( 2,155.0) ( 83.4) ( 171.5) ( 389.6) ( 791.7) ( 982.2) ( 1,254.2)
Financing Activities
Proceeds from loans and notes payable - - - 1 4.3 8 ,995.0 - -
Repayments of debt ( 40.2) ( 11.4) ( 7.0) - ( 482.9) ( 202.3) ( 188.0)
Net share issuance - - - - ( 72.0) ( 198.5) ( 238.7)
Dividends paid - - - - ( 774.1) ( 1,571.3) ( 1,618.5)
Net transfer from (to) the parent ( 1,090.6) ( 4,052.1) ( 2,735.7) ( 1,478.8) ( 9,913.0) - -
Other - - - - - - -
Net cash (used in) provided by financing activities ( 1,130.8) ( 4,063.4) ( 2,742.7) ( 1,464.5) ( 2,247.0) ( 1,972.1) ( 2,045.2)
Effect of exchange rate changes ( 10.6) 8 .7 ( 40.6) ( 61.5) - - -
Net (dec)/increase in cash and equivalents 1 46.6 ( 134.4) 1 22.4 4 91.5 ( 217.3) ( 1.4) ( 31.9)
Cash at beginning of period 6 05.4 7 52.0 6 17.6 7 40.0 1 ,231.4 1 ,014.1 1 ,012.8
Cash at end of period 7 52.0 6 17.6 7 40.0 1 ,231.4 1 ,014.1 1 ,012.8 9 80.9
Free Cash Flow 3 ,154.2 3 ,774.8 2 ,782.4 2 ,032.4 2 ,404.7 2 ,470.7 2 ,763.3
FCF Conversion 153% 140% 103% 79% 100% 101% 103%
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Strong, Global Management Team
KVUE has a strong, seasoned management team that will benefit from continuity as
many of the c-level executives ushered in the strategic transformation beginning in the
2019 time frame through the IPO. Moreover, the consumer segment largely operated
independently within JNJ historically, and as such, even after the separation, the
organization should be well positioned to continue life as a public company. The
management team has around 18 years of experience in consumer goods and healthcare
on average and is a diverse group including over 58% women and representing nine
different nationalities. Below, we highlight some of the key members of the executive
team.
• Thibaut Mongon, CEO – Mr. Mongon served as Executive Vice President and
Worldwide Chairman, Consumer Health at Johnson & Johnson since 2019 and had
been with the company since 2000. Mr. Mongon joined the Consumer Health
organization in 2014 as Group Chairman Asia-Pacific and prior to that joined the
Pharmaceutical sector in 2012 as Global Commercial Strategy Leader for the
Neuroscience therapeutic division.
• Paul Ruh, CFO – Mr. Ruh joined Johnson & Johnson in 2017 as Chief Financial
Officer, Consumer Health. Prior to Johnson & Johnson, Mr. Ruh held several
financial leadership roles at PepsiCo, including CFO of Latin America, CFO of
PBA, and CFO PepsiCo Foodservice. Prior to PepsiCo, Mr. Ruh held roles at
Procter & Gamble and McKinsey. All together, Mr. Ruh has over 30 years
experience in the consumer goods sector.
• Jan Meurer, Chief Growth Officer – Mr. Meurer joined Johnson & Johnson in
2015 and most recently served as Global Head of Strategy, Consumer Health. Prior
to that, Mr. Meurer held the roles of President, Johnson & Johnson Southeast Asia
and Area Managing Director Central Europe, Consumer Health. Prior to Johnson &
Johnson, Mr. Meurer spent time at Procter & Gamble, PGT Healthcare, and Siemens
Technologies. All together, Mr. Meurer has over 25 years experience building
consumer brands.
• Meredith (Meri) Stevens, Chief Operations Officer – Ms. Stevens joined Johnson
& Johnson in 2015 and most recently served as Worldwide Vice President,
Consumer Health Supply Chain and Deliver. Prior to that, Ms. Stevens led Supply
Chain Strategy and Deployment at Johnson & Johnson. Prior to Johnson & Johnson,
Ms. Stevens held roles at Newell Rubbermaid (Chief Supply Chain Officer) and
Tyco, Bertelsmann, Knoll, and General Electric in operations and procurement
leadership positions. All together, Ms. Stevens has over 30 years of operations
experience.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Global and U.S. Sales and Market Share
Trends
We did a deep dive into the various categories pertinent to KVUE using a few data
sources including Euromonitor, which includes a global perspective; NielsenIQ, mainly
for market share analysis and sales trends within the U.S.; and independent consultant
Numerator data for U.S. household penetration. Below we delve further into our
analysis by the different categories and brands. We also highlight the global note we
collaborated on last year (link).
Considering KVUE(cid:726)s key categories globally, including analgesics, allergy care,
mouthwash, digestive remedies, baby care, body care, sun care, and smoking cessation,
the company has the largest global market share in mouthwash and smoking cessation,
above 30% each, with allergy care and baby care following in the mid to high teens,
digestive remedies, analgesics, and adult mass sun care in HSDs, and mass skin care
(including face care and body care) at about MSD global market share as per data from
Euromonitor. We explore KVUE(cid:726)s global market share in depth under the three
segments below.
Figure 71: Global Market Share by Category
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Baby Care Mouthwash Skin Care Smoking Digestive Sun Care Analgesics Allergy Care
Cessation Remedies
Source: Euromonitor, J.P. Morgan
Looking further into each of these key categories(cid:726) market share performance in crucial
markets including the U.S., UK, China, India, and Brazil gives us a better sense of how
KVUE(cid:726)s market share is doing in these geographies, as per Euromonitor data. Starting
with the mouthwash category, KVUE has a market share of about ~45% in the U.S. and
~40% in the UK, with market share of roughly 30% in both Brazil and China. Although
KVUE has an extremely high market share of over 70% in the Indian market, it is
comparatively a much smaller region in terms of revenues for the company. Overall,
KVUE has a market share of 35.1% globally. For smoking cessation, KVUE has 31.4%
global market share, and we note that KVUE distributes the brand Nicorette only
outside the U.S., where the company has a market share above 40% in both the U.K.
and Brazil, among the regions we are analyzing.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Figure 72: Market Share by Country - Mouthwash Figure 73: Market Share by Country - Smoke Cessation
80.0% 42.0%
70.0% 41.8%
41.6%
60.0%
41.4%
50.0%
41.2%
40.0%
41.0%
30.0%
40.8%
20.0%
40.6%
10.0% 40.4%
0.0% 40.2%
Brazil China India UK USA Brazil UK
Source: Euromonitor, J.P. Morgan Source: Euromonitor, J.P. Morgan
From the regions we are considering, KVUE has the largest market share in the U.S.
(~27%) followed by China at about 15% and the UK with 9% in the allergy category,
whereas globally it is 17.2%. KVUE(cid:726)s baby care category is more prevalent outside the
U.S., especially with its iconic brand, Johnson(cid:726)s. As such, the Euromonitor data
unsurprisingly points to higher market share in emerging markets with India of 32.5%
and Brazil of 23.1%. KVUE has a total market share of 14.4% globally.
Figure 74: Market Share by Country - Allergy Figure 75: Market Share by Country - Baby Care
30.0% 35.0%
25.0% 30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
20.0%
15.0%
15.0%
10.0%
10.0%
5.0% 5.0%
0.0% 0.0%
China UK USA Brazil China India UK USA
Source: Euromonitor, J.P. Morgan Source: Euromonitor, J.P. Morgan
Euromonitor shows that KVUE has higher market share in the U.S. (10%) and the UK
(9.9%) in the digestive remedies category, while the company has a market share of
7.2% in the category globally. For OTC analgesics/pain relief, KVUE has a global
market share of 7.1%, with the largest market share in the U.S. of 20.5% followed by
the UK of 11.3%.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Figure 76: Market Share by Country - Digestive Remedies Figure 77: Market Share by Country - Analgesics
12.0% 25.0%
10.0%
20.0%
8.0%
15.0%
6.0%
10.0%
4.0%
5.0%
2.0%
0.0% 0.0%
Brazil China India UK USA Brazil China UK USA
Source: Euromonitor, J.P. Morgan Source: Euromonitor, J.P. Morgan
Turning to beauty, KVUE has global market share of 8.2% in mass adult sun care and
4.4% in skin care (including market share of 6.3% in mass body care and 4.1% in mass
face care – more below under segment analysis), according to data from Euromonitor.
The company has market share of 37.4% in Brazil and 16.0% in the U.S. in the sun care
category and 12.4% in the U.S. and 6.1% market share in Brazil in the mass skin care
category.
Figure 78: Market Share by Country - Sun Care Figure 79: Market Share by Country - Body Care
40.0% 14.0%
35.0% 12.0%
30.0%
10.0%
25.0%
8.0%
20.0%
6.0%
15.0%
4.0%
10.0%
5.0% 2.0%
0.0% 0.0%
Brazil China India UK USA Brazil China India UK USA
Source: Euromonitor, J.P. Morgan Source: Euromonitor, J.P. Morgan
Additionally, we looked at five-year CAGR growth rates (2017 to 2022) of KVUE(cid:726)s
categories. The Euromonitor data shows analgesics/pain care (+9.1%), pediatric
consumer health (+7.5%), digestive (+6.0%), and allergy (+5.1%) had the highest five-
year CAGR growth rates globally. Similarly in the U.S., categories with the largest five-
year CAGRs include pediatric consumer health (+13.3%), analgesics/pain care
(+12.6%), and digestive (+12.3%). This is in line with management(cid:726)s commentary that
the company concentrated on products that were in high retail demand, especially
during the pandemic. Based on KVUE(cid:726)s largest categories as per the Euromonitor data,
skin care grew +2.9%, baby/child products increased by +1.0%, and oral care increased
+2.8% on a five-year CAGR globally, and in the U.S. the data shows that the largest
categories include mass skin care, including mass body care and facial care (+2.5%),
and allergy care (+5.3%) besides analgesics/pain care (+12.6%) as mentioned above.
See below scatter plots for market share both globally and in the U.S.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Figure 80: Global Market Share Growth by Category
Y-Axis: KVUE Market Share change (2017 - 2022); X-Axis: KVUE Category 5Y CAGR
300
Smoke Cessation Allergy
200
100 Bath/ Hygiene Analgesics
Haircare
ShowerWound
0
Care
Digestive
-100 Paediatric Consumer
Health
-200 Sun Care
-300 Dermatologicals
Baby/Child
-400
Products
-500
-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
Source: Euromonitor, J.P. Morgan
Figure 81: U.S. Market Share Growth by Category
Y-Axis: KVUE Market Share change (2017 - 2022); X-Axis: KVUE Category 5Y CAGR
1200 Paediatric Consumer
1000 Health
800
600 Analgesics
400
200 Oral Dermatologicals Allergy Digestive
Care
Wound Care
0Baby/Child Hygiene
Products
-200
Sun Care
-400 Eye
-600 Care Skin
Care
-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
Source: Euromonitor, J.P. Morgan
Household Penetration in the U.S. Is Strong in Key Brands Yet Can Grow Further
To analyze the household penetration (HHP) of some of KVUE(cid:726)s iconic brands in the
U.S., we looked at an independent data vendor, Numerator. The sequential changes are
valuable to check, but we caveat the data in absolute terms may not be very reliable
given that it is based on consumers providing receipts, which we feel tends to skew
toward younger consumers, although the company notes matching to U.S. Census.
Using the HHP trends for the 52-week period ending 4/30, Tylenol (32.1%), Listerine
(28.9%), and Neutrogena (25.6%, in the face care category) appear to have some of the
highest household penetration in the U.S., although the data shows a deceleration in
HHP especially for the latter two brands. Note that Listerine(cid:726)s HHP has been worse
recently, while UW-rated Church & Dwight(cid:726)s TheraBreath HHP has improved (more
below under NielsenIQ). Additionally, the data points to high private label HHP,
especially in the categories pertaining to the Self Care segment that we examined below.
As such, management noted that the U.S. Self Care business has higher private label
exposure of about 25-30%, although this is much lower (~10%) for the overall company
in aggregate. We have provided more details in the tables below.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Figure 82: Household Penetration - Allergy Care Figure 83: Household Penetration - Pain Relievers
52W-period ending 5/5/19, 5/3/20, 5/2/21, 5/1/22 and 4/30/23 52W-period ending 5/5/19, 5/3/20, 5/2/21, 5/1/22 and 4/30/23
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Private Label 62.6% 65.5% 59.3% 60.7% 59.4%
Private Label 42.9% 45.2% 41.7% 43.2% 42.3%
Tylenol 24.9% 32.2% 29.3% 32.4% 32.1%
Benadryl 13.3% 14.1% 13.6% 14.5% 13.0%
Advil 19.6% 20.7% 18.2% 18.8% 19.4%
Claritin 10.5% 10.9% 10.3% 11.1% 10.0% Aleve 18.0% 17.5% 14.6% 14.2% 12.3%
Zyrtec 9.2% 9.1% 9.4% 10.0% 9.7% Motrin 9.2% 10.3% 7.2% 9.7% 9.8%
Bayer 10.8% 10.7% 12.0% 11.6% 9.7%
Flonase 7.0% 6.7% 6.0% 6.8% 6.8%
Excedrin 10.8% 9.7% 7.3% 8.6% 7.7%
Allegra 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 6.3% 6.2% Midol 2.5% 2.8% 2.9% 3.2% 3.1%
Source: Numerator, J.P. Morgan Source: Numerator, J.P. Morgan
Figure 84: Household Penetration - Cold, Cough & Flu Figure 85: Household Penetration - Digestive Remedies
52W-period ending 5/5/19, 5/3/20, 5/2/21, 5/1/22 and 4/30/23 52W-period ending 5/5/19, 5/3/20, 5/2/21, 5/1/22 and 4/30/23
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Private Label 58.6% 61.7% 42.2% 54.0% 56.6% Private Label 54.7% 56.6% 54.4% 55.0% 53.6%
Vicks 27.8% 31.9% 21.9% 34.3% 36.9% Tums 19.2% 21.2% 21.2% 21.8% 20.9%
Halls 32.0% 32.7% 20.2% 28.8% 31.1% Pepto-Bismol 12.1% 13.3% 13.1% 15.3% 15.2%
Mucinex 21.8% 22.1% 13.6% 23.8% 27.5% Dulcolax 6.9% 7.3% 8.4% 9.1% 9.6%
Ricola 17.2% 18.4% 10.7% 18.2% 21.1%
Miralax 7.4% 6.6% 7.3% 8.6% 8.2%
Robitussin 10.9% 11.6% 5.7% 10.4% 11.9%
Imodium 6.2% 6.1% 5.3% 6.8% 6.5%
TheraFlu 6.4% 7.0% 3.5% 5.8% 7.0%
Alka-Seltzer 6.7% 7.0% 8.1% 7.1% 5.9%
Sudafed 5.9% 6.5% 4.1% 6.3% 6.1%
Pepcid 2.5% 3.8% 4.6% 5.0% 4.3%
Zarbee's 4.9% 6.0% 3.4% 5.3% 5.3%
Source: Numerator, J.P. Morgan Source: Numerator, J.P. Morgan
Figure 86: Household Penetration - Mouthwash Figure 87: Household Penetration - Sun Care
52W-period ending 5/5/19, 5/3/20, 5/2/21, 5/1/22 and 4/30/23 52W-period ending 5/5/19, 5/3/20, 5/2/21, 5/1/22 and 4/30/23
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Listerine 32.1% 33.0% 32.3% 31.9% 28.9% Banana Boat 19.8% 19.3% 17.7% 21.4% 21.7%
Crest 21.8% 23.6% 23.4% 24.4% 23.0% Private Label 22.3% 21.2% 19.3% 20.4% 19.7%
Private Label 24.9% 25.2% 23.7% 21.6% 20.1% Coppertone 15.6% 14.0% 13.1% 15.2% 15.5%
ACT (Oral Care) 9.0% 9.1% 8.7% 8.0% 8.3% Neutrogena 13.9% 13.7% 15.0% 14.4% 15.2%
Colgate 9.7% 8.4% 7.1% 7.0% 5.8% Jergens 5.4% 5.3% 4.7% 5.6% 5.4%
TheraBreath 1.3% 1.5% 3.0% 3.4% 4.9% CeraVe 1.8% 2.0% 2.8% 3.3% 5.2%
Aveeno 2.8% 2.6% 3.3% 2.8% 2.2%
L'Oreal Paris 1.7% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5%
Source: Numerator, J.P. Morgan Source: Numerator, J.P. Morgan
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Figure 88: Household Penetration - Body Care Figure 89: Household Penetration - Face Care
52W-period ending 5/5/19, 5/3/20, 5/2/21, 5/1/22 and 4/30/23 52W-period ending 5/5/19, 5/3/20, 5/2/21, 5/1/22 and 4/30/23
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Gold Bond 14.6% 14.7% 14.6% 15.2% 14.5% Private Label 39.4% 41.0% 36.3% 34.5% 32.9%
Bath & Body Works 22.3% 22.0% 19.1% 20.0% 14.1% Neutrogena 28.7% 28.5% 27.5% 27.5% 25.6%
Private Label 19.2% 17.8% 15.6% 13.9% 13.1% CeraVe 3.9% 5.3% 11.0% 13.6% 15.4%
Vaseline 11.9% 11.8% 12.6% 12.3% 12.4% Cetaphil 7.9% 9.1% 10.4% 11.1% 10.6%
L'Oreal Paris 8.8% 8.4% 8.8% 7.6% 7.9%
Nivea 11.4% 12.5% 13.4% 12.9% 11.6%
Clean & Clear 14.5% 13.2% 11.1% 10.1% 7.1%
Aveeno 11.2% 11.2% 11.7% 11.0% 11.4%
Aveeno 6.6% 6.0% 6.1% 6.4% 4.8%
CeraVe 4.7% 5.9% 8.9% 10.4% 11.1%
Eucerin 6.0% 6.7% 7.3% 7.8% 6.8%
Olay 1.3% 1.4% 1.8% 1.9% 2.2%
Neutrogena 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 1.8%
Source: Numerator, J.P. Morgan Source: Numerator, J.P. Morgan
Market Share Improving in the U.S. Based on Tracked Channels
We carried out an in-depth analysis of some of KVUE(cid:726)s pertinent categories using
tracked channel data (NielsenIQ) to gauge how the company(cid:726)s market performance
(value and volume share as well as price) evolved over time, specifically in the U.S.
However, base period dynamics limit the degree of read-through from tracked channel
data. We carried out a YOY analysis of the recent NielsenIQ data available (ending
5/6/23) and also analyzed YOY data as of 12/31/22 (we will refer to this as prior year-
end or (cid:728)PYE(cid:729)) to see how KVUE categories performed YTD as well as YOY data as of
5/7/22 (we will refer to this as prior-year or (cid:728)PY(cid:729)) to see how KVUE performed in the
categories from a year ago (as of 5/6/23). These additional charts for PY and PYE are
added to the appendix for reference. Below we elaborate more on our findings.
In the four-week period ending May 6, KVUE posted modest positive dollar share
performance (+15 bps vs. -45 bps in the four-week period ending 12/31/22 or (cid:728)PYE(cid:729)
and -152 bps four-week period ending 5/7/22) as the company gained dollar share in 11
out of 19 categories (vs. eight categories as of PYE and six categories as of PY – both
out of 19 categories) that we track for the company. As we show in the table below, the
largest share gains occurred in antiseptic (+456 bps vs. +418 bps as of PYE and +558
bps as of PY) and baby bath (+408 bps vs. losing -18 bps as of PYE and -645 bps as of
PY), besides the outsized growth in baby powder (+1,138 bps vs. losing -107 bps as of
PYE and -377 bps as of PY), but this category makes up a very small percentage of
sales in the U.S. as per the tracked channels. Conversely, the largest share loss occurred
in baby lotion (-252 bps vs. -322 as of PYE and -49 bps as of PY) and facial skin care (-
197 bps vs. -266 bps as of PYE and -291 bps as of PY), with more moderate share loss
in cold & flu (-133 bps vs. -113 bps as of PYE but gained +159 bps as of PY). Given
that the 19 categories below account for roughly 78% of KVUE(cid:726)s sales in the tracked
channels, on a weighted basis, we estimate KVUE gained +15 bps (vs. losing -45 bps as
of PYE and -152 bps as of PY) of overall value share but lost -54 bps (vs. -32 bps as of
PYE and -83 bps as of PY) on a volume share basis in the latest four-week period
ending 5/6/23. KVUE retail price realization was up by ~15%, 15%, and 11% in the last
four, 13, and 52 weeks YOY.
Value Share Improved Sequentially Driven by Pricing as Volume Share
Deteriorated YTD
Sequentially, on a YOY four-week period basis, value share improved, but volume share
appears to have deteriorated YTD, although the metric improved from PY especially as
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(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
pricing at retail increased tremendously during the time line observed. More
specifically, KVUE gained +15 bps of value share in the four-week period ending
5/6/23, improving from losing -45 bps in the four-week period ending 12/31/22 and -
152 in the four-week period ending 5/7/22 as mentioned above. Similarly, the company
lost -54 bps of volume share in the four-week period ending 5/6/23, or 22 bps lower
from -32 bps volume share loss in the four-week period ending 12/31/22, but improving
from -83 bps volume share loss in the four-week period ending 5/7/22. During this time,
pricing at retail increased tremendously by +14.7% in the four-week period ending
5/6/23 and compares to up by +8.5% in the four-week period ending 12/31/22 and
+2.3% in the four-week period ending 5/7/22, as the company took pricing in 2H22 and
again in 1Q23.
Figure 90: KVUE Value & Volume Share Change by Key Categories – U.S.
Contribution to Total Sales in Latest 4, 13 & 52-Weeks, Weighted Change in Value Share & Dollar Equivalent Unit (EQ) Share
For Periods Ending 5/06/23
JOHNSON & JOHNSON % $ Mix % $ Mix % $ Mix YOY $ Share Change (bps) YOY EQ Share Change (bps)
L4W L13W L52W L4W L13W L52W L4W L13W L52W
KVUE
Acid Relief 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 50 58 20 (29) (18) (19)
Allergy 13.9% 12.8% 11.1% 89 124 66 (64) (53) (63)
Antibiotic 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 158 55 (92) (22) (134) (267)
Anti-Diarrhea 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% (101) (42) 76 (266) (187) (26)
Antiseptic 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 456 410 482 437 396 485
Baby Bath 3.0% 3.2% 3.2% 408 206 (78) 244 2 (141)
Baby Lotion 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% (252) (312) (273) (28) (140) (260)
Baby Oil 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 32 (47) (246) (55) (59) 24
Baby Powder 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 1,138 572 175 1,594 713 150
Baby Soap 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 198 102 (104) 257 303 50
Bandages 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% (72) (39) (64) (176) (127) (143)
Body Wash 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% (32) (28) (12) (50) (27) 4
Body Lotion 3.1% 3.4% 3.2% (87) (87) (100) (57) (32) (20)
Cold & Flu 1.1% 1.2% 1.4% (133) (6) 32 (3) (0) (1)
Digestive Aid 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 102 19 (22) (322) (332) (199)
Facial Skin Care 9.7% 10.2% 10.2% (197) (215) (296) (191) (207) (255)
Mouthwash 8.3% 8.8% 9.1% (102) (61) (256) (109) (59) (151)
Pain Relief 16.2% 16.1% 16.9% 76 218 137 (35) (14) 13
Sun Care 5.1% 3.7% 4.0% 38 99 (148) 81 187 6
Weighted Total 77.6% 77.1% 76.8% 15 41 (53) (54) (53) (85)
Source: NielsenIQ, J.P. Morgan
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Figure 91: KVUE Pricing Change by Key Categories – U.S.
Change in Pricing in Latest 4, 13 & 52-Weeks
For Periods Ending 5/06/23
JOHNSON & JOHNSON % $ Mix % $ Mix % $ Mix YOY EQ Price Change (%)
L4W L13W L52W L4W L13W L52W
KVUE
Acid Relief 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 16.8% 13.8% 10.2%
Allergy 13.9% 12.8% 11.1% 13.7% 13.7% 10.8%
Antibiotic 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 13.7% 13.0% 12.7%
Anti-Diarrhea 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 16.5% 15.3% 11.0%
Antiseptic 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 22.2% 42.8% 55.8%
Baby Bath 3.0% 3.2% 3.2% 18.1% 16.1% 13.7%
Baby Lotion 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.2% 13.7% 12.3%
Baby Oil 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 13.1% 11.4% 10.7%
Baby Powder 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 15.6% 17.0% 15.2%
Baby Soap 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.2% 11.8% 13.0%
Bandages 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 12.5% 12.7% 10.5%
Body Wash 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 19.6% 14.5% 7.8%
Body Lotion 3.1% 3.4% 3.2% 11.1% 9.3% 7.2%
Cold & Flu 1.1% 1.2% 1.4% -0.9% 11.9% 19.7%
Digestive Aid 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 21.3% 17.4% 9.7%
Facial Skin Care 9.7% 10.2% 10.2% 17.7% 17.1% 15.2%
Mouthwash 8.3% 8.8% 9.1% 16.9% 14.1% 8.9%
Pain Relief 16.2% 16.1% 16.9% 14.8% 21.2% 13.4%
Sun Care 5.1% 3.7% 4.0% 8.4% 0.4% -1.9%
Weighted Total 77.6% 77.1% 76.8% 14.7% 15.0% 11.2%
Source: NielsenIQ, J.P. Morgan
Below we provide an in-depth discussion of the three segments – Self Care, Skin Health
& Beauty, and Essential Health – and examine the categories within each of these
segments further using data from Euromonitor, mainly for global market share/trends,
and NielsenIQ for U.S. market share/trends. As it specifically relates to NielsenIQ, we
carried out a YOY analysis of the recent NielsenIQ data available (ending 5/6/23) and
also analyzed YOY data as of 12/31/22 (we will refer to this as prior year-end or
(cid:728)PYE(cid:729)) to see how KVUE categories performed YTD as well as considering YOY data
as of 5/7/22 (we will refer to this as prior-year or (cid:728)PY(cid:729)) to see how KVUE performed in
the categories from a year ago (as of 5/6/23). We have not provided the charts pertaining
to PYE and PY data points but have only referred to the data in our analysis. Below, we
delve into some of the specific categories within each of KVUE(cid:726)s three segments.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Global Category Market Share
Self Care
Our analysis of the tracked channel data for some of the major categories within the Self
Care segment are laid out below from various tracked channel data sources including
Euromonitor and NielsenIQ.
Paincare. We utilized Euromonitor to assess how KVUE(cid:726)s market share fared globally
both at the company and brand level within the OTC paincare category. KVUE has a
global market share of 7.1% in this category. Looking further at the brand level, we get
the sense that KVUE(cid:726)s brands (both Tylenol and Motrin) have been gaining market
share globally. More specifically, the data shows that Tylenol grew market share
tremendously from 2.5% in 2013 to 4.6% in 2022, and Motrin also grew but at a lower
magnitude, from 0.9% in 2013 to 1.4% in 2022. Note that some of the other major
brands in the category, including Advil (Haleon), Aspirin (Bayer), and Aleve (Bayer),
lost market share during this time frame.
Figure 92: Paincare - Global Market Share by Company
18.0%
16.0% 15.2% 15.2%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0% 5.9% 7.1%
5.5% 5.6%
6.0% 5.9% 5.4%
4.0%
4.0% 3.3%
2.0%
0.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Haleon Kenvue Sanofi Bayer Reckitt
Source: Euromonitor, J.P. Morgan
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Figure 93: Paincare - Global Market Share by Brands
5.0% 4.6%
4.5%
3.9%
4.0%
3.5%
2.9%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.4%
1.5%
1.0%
1.2%
0.5%
0.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Tylenol Advil Aspirin Motrin Aleve
Source: Euromonitor, J.P. Morgan
Looking specifically in the U.S. employing NielsenIQ, due to the iconic Tylenol and
Motrin brands, paincare makes up the largest component for both the overall company
and within the Self Care segment (as per category weight based on sales calculated
using data from NielsenIQ). The tracked channel data for the four-week period observed
shows that KVUE(cid:726)s dollar value share has remained consistent through the time line
considered with value share gain of +76 bps for the four-week period ending 5/6/23 (vs.
+75 bps in the four-week period ending 12/31/22 or PYE and +76 bps in the four-week
period ending 5/7/22 or PY). We note that private label (PL) lost -30 bps of value share
in the four-week period ending 5/6/23; however, PL gained +148 bps as of PYE and
gained more modestly (+53 bps) as of PY. As it relates to volume share, KVUE lost -35
bps in the four-week period ending 5/6/23 while PL gained +69 bps during this period.
Below we show how both value and volume share performed for the 4, 13, and 52
weeks ending 5/6/23 for KVUE and some of its competitors.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Figure 94: Paincare - U.S. Value Share Figure 95: Paincare - U.S. Volume Share
For Periods Ending 5/06/23, YOY (bps) For Periods Ending 5/06/23, YOY (bps)
250 218 150
111
200
100
150 137 69 58
47
50
100 76 13
50 -
14 (4) (0) (0) (1)
- (14) (17)
(50) (19) (11) (34)(36) (30) (26)(30) (4) (50) (35) (69) (30)
(59) (100)
(100) (87) (83)
(123)
(150) (150)
KENVUE BAYER AG SANOFI PRIVATE LABEL HALEON KENVUE BAYER AG SANOFI PRIVATE LABEL HALEON
4W 13W 52W 4W 13W 52W
Source: NielsenIQ, J.P. Morgan Source: NielsenIQ, J.P. Morgan
Allergies. In the allergies category globally, KVUE leads with market share of 17.2% as
mentioned above, followed by Bayer (13.1%) and Sanofi (11.8%). As it relates to
brands, both of KVUE(cid:726)s brands, Zyrtec and Benadryl, have gained global market share
slightly during the time frame considered.
Figure 96: Allergy - Global Market Share by Company
20.0%
17.2%
18.0%
15.8%
16.0%
14.0% 13.1%
12.3% 11.8%
12.0% 11.8%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.1%
3.8%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Kenvue Bayer Sanofi Haleon
Source: Euromonitor, J.P. Morgan
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Figure 97: Allergy - Global Market Share by Brands - KVUE Absolute Leader Combining Zyrtec and Benadryl
14.0%
11.8%
12.0%
10.0%
8.3%
8.0%
7.9%
6.0%
6.2%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Claritin Zyrtec Allegra/Telfast Benadryl
Source: Euromonitor, J.P. Morgan
In the U.S., NielsenIQ tracked channel data shows that KVUE gained +89 bps of value
share in the four-week period ending 5/6/23, which is slightly below gain of +96 bps as
of PYE but improved from losing -37 bps as of PY. However, KVUE(cid:726)s volume share has
been pressured, losing -64 bps in the four-week period ending 5/6/23 (and compares to
losing -69 bps as of PYE but gaining +20 bps as of PY). We note here that private label
gained +85 bps of volume share in the four-week period ending 5/6/23 (vs. +88 bps as
of PYE but losing -90 bps as of PY). Below we show how both value and volume share
performed for the 4, 13 and 52 weeks ending 5/6/23 for KVUE and some of its
competitors.
Figure 98: Allergy - U.S. Value Share Figure 99: Allergy - U.S. Volume Share
For Periods Ending 5/06/23, YOY (bps) For Periods Ending 5/06/23, YOY (bps)
150 120 109
124
100 85
100 89 66 78 80 68
60
50 27 31 12 40 33 31
- 20 16 13
(10) (20) (19) (2) -
(50)
(42) (20)
(59) (15)
(100) (85) (40) (30) (30)(30)(28)
(60) (53)
(150) (136) (80) (64) (63)
KENVUE BAYER AG SANOFI PRIVATE LABEL HALEON KENVUE BAYER AG SANOFI PRIVATE LABEL HALEON
4W 13W 52W 4W 13W 52W
Source: NielsenIQ, J.P. Morgan Source: NielsenIQ, J.P. Morgan
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Cough & Cold. In the cold, cough (and allergy) remedies category as per Euromonitor
data globally, KVUE leads with market share of 7.3% followed by Haleon (6.7%) and
Reckitt (5.7%). We note here KVUE(cid:726)s global brands including Sudafed (0.7%) and
Benylin (0.6%) market share compared to competitors including Vicks (4.7%, owned by
OW-rated Procter & Gamble), Halls (3.4%, owned by Mondelez International) and
Mucinex (2.5%, owned by Reckitt), among others.
Figure 100: Cold & Cough Global Market Share by Company
8.0% 7.5%
7.3%
6.7% 6.7%
7.0%
5.1%
6.0% 4.6% 5.7%
4.5% 5.0%
5.0% 4.6% 4.6%
4.5%
3.6%
4.0% 3.5%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Kenvue Haleon Reckitt Procter & Gamble Bayer Sanofi Mondelez
Source: Euromonitor, J.P. Morgan
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Figure 101: Cold & Cough Global Market Share by Brands
4.7%
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.4%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.5%
2.0%
1.6%
1.5%
1.5%
1.0% 1.0%
0.7%
0.5%
0.6%
0.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Vicks Halls Mucinex Ricola
Strepsils Sudafed Robitussin Benylin
Source: Euromonitor, J.P. Morgan
As per NielsenIQ, KVUE lost -133 bps of value share in the four-week period ending
5/6/23, sequentially worse from losing -113 bps as of PYE while gaining +159 bps as of
PY. As it relates to volume share, the company seems to have (cid:728)improved(cid:729) YTD,
although it lost -3 bps in the four-week period ending 5/6/23 vs. -13 bps PYE but
slightly gained +6 bps as of PY. Below we show how both value and volume share
performed for the 4, 13, and 52 weeks ending 5/6/23 for KVUE and some of its
competitors.
Figure 102: Cough & Cold - U.S. Value Share Figure 103: Cough & Cold - U.S. Volume Share
For Periods Ending 5/06/23, YOY (bps) For Periods Ending 5/06/23, YOY (bps)
1,000 7828 13 40
800 539 30 28 25
46 00 00 1843 43 419 401 1982 78 20 17
22 00 - 00 (133)(6)32 12 (94)36 14 1 -0 8 5 7 9 9 6 1 0 2 3
( ) (156) (148) (93)
(400) (230) (3)(0)(1) (2) (0) (1) (3)
(600) (10)
(800)
(20)
(1,000)
(940) (22)
(1,200) (30)
KENVUE PROCTER & BAYER AG RECKITT PRIVATE CHURCH & HALEON KENVUE PROCTER & BAYER AG RECKITT PRIVATE CHURCH & HALEON
GAMBLE LABEL DWIGHT GAMBLE LABEL DWIGHT
4W 13W 52W 4W 13W 52W
Source: NielsenIQ, J.P. Morgan Source: NielsenIQ, J.P. Morgan
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Digestive Remedies. Globally, data from Euromonitor points to KVUE holding the
second largest market share position (7.2%) in the digestive remedies category, while
Haleon has the highest market share with 7.8% market share. As it relates to brands,
KVUE(cid:726)s larger brands include Imodium (2.4% global market share) and Pepcid (1.5%
market share on a global basis), while Dulcolax (Sanofi) has the largest market share
(2.5%). We have included charts below showing how KVUE stacks up against
competitors in the digestive remedies category globally overall. (KVUE has a few other
brands with small market share that are too small to show here.)
Figure 104: Digestive Remedies Global Market Share by Company
9.0%
8.0%
7.8%
8.0%
6.8% 7.2%
7.1%
7.0% 6.5%
5.9%
5.8%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0% 2.6% 2.4%
2.3%
2.3%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Haleon Kenvue Sanofi Bayer Procter & Gamble Reckitt
Source: Euromonitor, J.P. Morgan
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Figure 105: Digestive Remedies Global Market Share by Brands
3.0%
2.5%
2.5%
2.4%
2.2%
2.0%
1.7%
1.5%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Dulcolax Imodium Tums Gaviscon Pepcid
Source: Euromonitor, J.P. Morgan
NielsenIQ data shows that KVUE gained +50 bps of value share in the four-week period
ending 5/6/23 in the acid relief category, which is an improvement from slightly gaining
+4 bps as of PYE but losing -6 bps as of PY. We also looked at the anti-diarrhea
category, where the company(cid:726)s performance is worse, losing value share of -101 bps in
the four-week period ending 5/6/23 (vs. gaining +217 bps as of PYE and +165 as of
PY). In the digestive aid category, KVUE gained +102 bps value share in the four-week
period ending 5/6/23 (vs. losing -265 bps PYE but gaining +51 bps PY) while PL lost -
49 bps value share during this time period and compares to gaining +319 as of PYE and
+77 bps as of PY. Below we show how both value and volume share performed for the
4, 13, and 52 weeks ending 5/6/23 for KVUE and some of its competitors for acid relief,
anti-diarrhea, and digestive aid categories.
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T h is d o c u m e n t is b e in g p r o v id e d f o r t h e e x c lu s iv e u s e o f D A V I D W A N G a t M A R L O W E P A R T N E R S L P .
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Figure 106: Acid Relief - Value Share Figure 107: Acid Relief - Volume Share
For Periods Ending 5/06/23, YOY (bps) For Periods Ending 5/06/23, YOY (bps)
80 100
60 50 58 60 56 80 75
40 40 26 60 49
20 20 40 21 26
20
-
(1) -
((( 642 000 ))) (36)(26)(16) (10) ((( 642 000 ))) (20)(15)(11) (17)(4)
(36)(39)(28) (29)(18)(19)
(45) (36) (38) (44)(35)
(58)
(63)
(80) (72) (80) (70)
KENVUE PROCTER & BAYER AG SANOFI PRIVATE LABEL HALEON KENVUE PROCTER & BAYER AG SANOFI PRIVATE LABEL HALEON
GAMBLE GAMBLE
4W 13W 52W 4W 13W 52W
Source: NielsenIQ, J.P. Morgan Source: NielsenIQ, J.P. Morgan
Figure 108: Anti-Diarrhea - Value Share Figure 109: Anti-Diarrhea - Volume Share
For Periods Ending 5/06/23, YOY (bps) For Periods Ending 5/06/23, YOY (bps)
250 229 400
200 166 300 289
150
200 160
100 76
100
50
7 -
- (26) (15) (16) (15) (14)
(100)
(50)
(42)
(100) (89) (200) (187)
(101) (100) (108)
(150) (300) (266)
KENVUE PROCTER & GAMBLE PRIVATE LABEL KENVUE PROCTER & GAMBLE PRIVATE LABEL
4W 13W 52W 4W 13W 52W
Source: NielsenIQ, J.P. Morgan Source: NielsenIQ, J.P. Morgan
Figure 110: Digestive Aid - Value Share Figure 111: Digestive Aid - Volume Share
For Periods Ending 5/06/23, YOY (bps) For Periods Ending 5/06/23, YOY (bps)
120 102 400 326 335
100 94 300
80 200 200
60 49
100
40
19 -
20
(100)
-
(20) (200)
(199)
(40) (22) (300)
(60) (49) (400) (322) (332)
KENVUE PRIVATE LABEL KENVUE PRIVATE LABEL
4W 13W 52W 4W 13W 52W
Source: NielsenIQ, J.P. Morgan Source: NielsenIQ, J.P. Morgan
Skin Health & Beauty
Our analysis of the tracked channel data for some of the major categories within the
Skin Health & Beauty segment are laid out below using Euromonitor to gauge how
KVUE is performing globally and NielsenIQ for U.S. performance.
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T h is d o c u m e n t is b e in g p r o v id e d f o r t h e e x c lu s iv e u s e o f D A V I D W A N G a t M A R L O W E P A R T N E R S L P .
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Face Care. Looking at the mass face care category on a worldwide basis, data from
Euromonitor shows that KVUE has market share of 4.1%, while L(cid:726)Oreal Groupe
(covered by Celine Pannuti) has the highest global market share of 12.5%. By brands,
Neutrogena has the fourth highest market share (2.7%), while Clean & Clear has a very
small global market share (0.7%).
Figure 112: Mass Face Care Global Market Share by Company
14.0%
12.5%
12.0%
10.0% 9.3%
8.0%
5.2%
5.6%
5.2% 5.1%
6.0%
4.9% 5.0%
4.3%
4.1%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
L'Oréal Beiersdorf Unilever Procter & Gamble Kenvue
Source: Euromonitor, J.P. Morgan
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T h is d o c u m e n t is b e in g p r o v id e d f o r t h e e x c lu s iv e u s e o f D A V I D W A N G a t M A R L O W E P A R T N E R S L P .
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Figure 113: Mass Face Care Global Market Share by Brands
7.0%
6.0%
4.9%
5.0%
4.8%
4.0%
2.8%
3.0%
2.7%
2.0% 2.5%
0.7%
1.0%
0.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
L'Oréal Paris Olay CeraVe Neutrogena Nivea Clean & Clear
Source: Euromonitor, J.P. Morgan
Face care makes up the largest component within the Skin Health & Beauty segment,
specifically in the U.S. (as per category weight based on sales calculated using data
from NielsenIQ). The tracked channel data for the four-week period observed shows
that KVUE(cid:726)s dollar value share has improved, albeit negative, through the time line
considered, with value share loss of -197 bps for the four-week period ending 5/6/23
(vs. -266 bps as of PYE and -291 bps as of PY). We note that L(cid:726)Oreal (covered by
Celine Pannuti) has been a clear value share winner also in the U.S., gaining +426 bps
in the four-week period ending 5/6/23, +419 bps as of PYE and +183 bps as of PY. On a
volume share basis, KVUE lost -191 bps in the four-week period ending 5/6/23 (vs. -
194 bps as of PYE and -136 bps as of PY), while L(cid:726)Oreal gained +411 bps of volume
share in the same period (compares to +484 bps as of PYE and +318 bps as of PY).
Below we show how both value and volume share performed for the 4, 13, and 52
weeks ending 5/6/23 for KVUE and some of its competitors.
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Figure 114: Face Care - Value Share Figure 115: Face Care - Volume Share
For Periods Ending 5/06/23, YOY (bps) For Periods Ending 5/06/23, YOY (bps)
500 426 414 500 411 419 433
400 370 400
300 300
200
200
100
100
- 15 9 11 2
(( 21 00 00 )) (109)(130)(85) (58)(55)(29) (53)(54)(40) 0- (8) (10)
(1 0)
(86)
(197)(215)
(300) (200) (191) (182)
(296) (207)
(400) (300) (255) (236)
KENVUE PROCTER & GAMBLE L'OREAL SA UNILEVER GROUP PRIVATE LABEL KENVUE PROCTER & GAMBLE L'OREAL SA UNILEVER GROUP PRIVATE LABEL
4W 13W 52W 4W 13W 52W
Source: NielsenIQ, J.P. Morgan Source: NielsenIQ, J.P. Morgan
Body Care. With a global market share of 6.3% in the mass body care category, KVUE
has a long way to catch up with Beiersdorf, which has the largest global market share of
14.1% in this category according to the Euromonitor data. Turning to brands, Aveeno(cid:726)s
market share of 2.0% and Johnson(cid:726)s of 1.2% globally as of 2022 are also far behind in
market share from the #1 brand (Nivea owned by Beiersdorf with market share of 12%)
in this category.
Figure 116: Mass Body Care Global Market Share by Company
16.0%
14.3% 14.1%
14.0%
12.0%
10.3%
9.9%
10.0%
8.7%
8.3%
8.0%
6.9%
6.3%
6.0%
4.0% 3.4%
2.0%
1.5% 1.4%
2.0%
0.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Beiersdorf Unilever Natura&Co Kenvue L'Oréal Procter & Gamble
Source: Euromonitor, J.P. Morgan
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T h is d o c u m e n t is b e in g p r o v id e d f o r t h e e x c lu s iv e u s e o f D A V I D W A N G a t M A R L O W E P A R T N E R S L P .
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73
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Figure 117: Mass Body Care Global Market Share by Brands
14.0%
12.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.5%
4.0%
2.6%
2.3%
2.0% 2.0%
1.4%
1.2%
0.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Nivea Vaseline Dove CeraVe
Aveeno Eucerin Olay Johnson's
Source: Euromonitor, J.P. Morgan
For the U.S. alone, the NielsenIQ data for both body lotion and body wash categories, as
part of the analysis for body care in the U.S., show that KVUE(cid:726)s value share in the body
lotion category has (cid:728)improved(cid:729) YTD in comparison, while that of body wash has
deteriorated YTD, albeit both categories are losing value share. More specifically,
KVUE lost -87 bps of value share in the four-week period ending 5/6/23 in the body
lotion category, where L(cid:726)Oreal gained +63 bps during this period) and is an
(cid:728)improvement(cid:729) from losing -224 bps as of PYE, but performance is worse from a year
ago when KVUE slightly lost -9 bps of value share in the four-week period ending
5/7/22. For body wash, in the four-week period ending 5/6/23, the data suggests KVUE
lost -32 bps of value share, while OW-rated PG gained +189 bps during the same
period, and compares to KVUE gaining +38 bps as of PYE. For volume share, KVUE
lost -57 bps in the four-week period ending 5/6/23 in the body lotion category, while
private label gained +81 bps during this period and is an (cid:728)improvement(cid:729) from KVUE
losing -138 bps as of the four-week period ending 12/31/22. KVUE lost -50 bps of
volume share in the four-week period ending 5/6/23, while OW-rated Procter & Gamble
gained +225 bps of volume share in body wash during the same period, and compares to
KVUE gaining +56 bps in the four-week period ending 12/31/22. Below we show how
both value and volume share performed for the 4, 13, and 52 weeks ending 5/6/23 for
KVUE and some of its competitors for both body lotion and body wash categories.
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T h is d o c u m e n t is b e in g p r o v id e d f o r t h e e x c lu s iv e u s e o f D A V I D W A N G a t M A R L O W E P A R T N E R S L P .
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Figure 118: Body Lotion - Value Share Figure 119: Body Lotion - Volume Share
For Periods Ending 5/06/23, YOY (bps) For Periods Ending 5/06/23, YOY (bps)
100 150
74
68 00 63 55 100 74 81 98
44
40 31 30 50 23 25 17
20 5 1
- -
(20) (18) (2) (50) (32)(20) (24)(26) (11) (36)
(40) (57) (56)
(60) (49) (41) (54) (100)
1(8 000) (63)(70)
( ) (87)(87) (74) (150) (137) (141)
(120) (100) (200) (158)
KENVUE BEIERSDORF AG L'OREAL SA SANOFI UNILEVER PRIVATE LABEL KENVUE BEIERSDORF AG L'OREAL SA SANOFI UNILEVER PRIVATE LABEL
GROUP GROUP
4W 13W 52W 4W 13W 52W
Source: NielsenIQ, J.P. Morgan Source: NielsenIQ, J.P. Morgan
Figure 120: Body Wash - Value Share Figure 121: Body Wash - Volume Share
For Periods Ending 5/06/23, YOY (bps) For Periods Ending 5/06/23, YOY (bps)
300 300
225
189
200 151 142 200 151 142
100 100
- -
(100) (32) (28) (12) (52) (100) (50) (28) (12) (52) (66)
(136)(106) (122) (106) (122)
(200) (200) (163)
(300) (300)
(281)(279) (279)
(400) (400)
KENVUE PROCTER & GAMBLE COLGATE UNILEVER GROUP KENVUE PROCTER & GAMBLE COLGATE UNILEVER GROUP
4W 13W 52W 4W 13W 52W
Source: NielsenIQ, J.P. Morgan Source: NielsenIQ, J.P. Morgan
Sun care. KVUE has the third place in global market share (8.2%) according to data
from Euromonitor, far behind Beiersdorf (15.2%) but more comparable with L(cid:726)Oreal
(8.5%; covered by Celine Pannuti). KVUE competes in the sun care market with brands
including Neutrogena (4.7%), Johnson(cid:726)s (1.9%), Piz Buin (1.0%), Aveeno (0.5%), and
much smaller Dabao (0.1%).
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T h is d o c u m e n t is b e in g p r o v id e d f o r t h e e x c lu s iv e u s e o f D A V I D W A N G a t M A R L O W E P A R T N E R S L P .
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Andrea Teixeira, CFAAC North America Equity Research JPMORGAN
(1-212) 622-6735 29 May 2023
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
Figure 122: Mass Adult Sun Care Global Market Share by Company
16.0% 15.2%
14.7%
14.0%
12.0%
8.8%
10.0% 9.5% 8.5%
8.2%
8.0% 7.3%
6.6%
6.0%
4.3%
4.0% 3.3%
2.0%
0.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Beiersdorf L'Oréal Kenvue Edgewell Kao Corp
Source: Euromonitor, J.P. Morgan
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