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View Single Post
October 6th, 2009, 21:20
More thoughts from Desslock ( I cannot wait for my issue of PCG to arrive this month…)
Originally Posted by comment on combat difficulty
Yes, probably — try it on the default setting and go down if you find it too difficult (which has friendly fire, although that makes less of a difference than it would in NWN2 for instance). I think you can adjust it while playing, in case you get stuck or are just annoyed at replaying a battle, but I'll confirm that. I've stuck on "normal" and have spent a long time on some battles to develop better strategies (and, occasionally, relying on BG1-type kiting).
This is great for me, since I always play a Mage char first.
Originally Posted by On classes and Mages
Classes are distinct - you can't turn a Mage into a fighter-mage, for instance. You'll have to opt for a fighter, rogue or mage - they all play very differently despite some overlap in powers. Skills can be chosen by any character, even though in other games you'd typically associate them with specific classes (like herbalism, for making potions; stealing; trapmaking — those aren't confined to mages, rogues, etc. as you might intuitively expect).
Mages are also extremely powerful, but vulnerable, almost to the extent of the older editions of D&D. They're also very customizable - one mage will play very differently from another based upon the wide range of available spells (you can try to be a jack of all trades, but at high cost, since you could instead progress in the 4 ranks of spells to choose from in each specialization.
But mages are uber-dangerous, which also fits well with the background lore of the setting. While in most D&D games typically one of the easiest ways to blast through the storyline is to have a band of fighter types, that wouldn't work as well in Dragon Age, where combat is really tough without a mage's AOE damage and crowd control spells and healing (no clerics, so mages fill that role too).
In my primary playthrough, for most of the game I ended up using 2 mages, a warrior and a rogue (my main), which is a mix that I don't think I ever used in a D&D game.
Originally Posted by On choice making in DA:O
Hey, as I mentioned in my review, BioWare games usually have 3 choices - good/bad/petulant teenager-nobody-ever-chooses-option.
While I definitely think that's a legitimate criticism (which I share) of past games, it's not true of Dragon Age generally, which does a better job of providing choices that seem varied and reasonably viable than almost any RPG. Dragon Age is a significant improvement in that respect. To be honest, it's the first BioWare game that (at least) matched the style of Troika/Obsidian, old Black Isle games in that respect - BioWare games have always had good stories and generally solid dialogue, but their method of storytelling has been simpler. There's an amazing amount of choice in Dragon Age.
Sure there are some quest instances where you have to elect to help, or not, but even when there's only two end results in those circumstances, there's different ways to arrive at those endings - the bottom line is, the choices just feel more "natural", less like you're gaming, and are more ambiguous and intriguing, so you're more likely to choose a personalized path based upon the character you're roleplaying instead of just "gaming" the result you think you want to have.
This is the best bit of news that I have read, about the mages. I "bolded" the bits that made me very happy:
I think you'll also like the way magic is handled in Dragon Age, then. Mages are fucking dangerous and treated as such. They're lobotomized, hunted down, forced into training, or executed.
People aren't using light spells to walk their dogs - the clergy have no magic (and are opposed to it, for possibly legitimate reasons) it's a relatively low magic setting. It's a testament to the quality of the writing that reactions seem alternately sensible and atrocious, but always plausible.
It's the way stuff like that is handled that makes Dragon Age the "mature" RPG that I really enjoy - not the animated puppet sex.
Not that I needed more motivation to play a mage char first…
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Wood-grain vinyl laminate covers a core of steel tubing, giving this flagpole extra durability for carrying in a parade or other event. 8' long. 1 1/4" diameter. Breaks down into two sections. Made in the USA. Learn More
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Tag Archives: Haiti
Ayiti: The Cost of Life
While reading an article on the current trend of “Serious Games,” I came across a game called Ayiti: The Cost of Life (www.costoflife.org) where a player is given the task of trying to create a better life for an impoverished family in Haiti. Here is the introduction to the game:
The Guinard family of five is struggling to get by in rural Haiti (“Ayiti” in Haitian Creole). The father, Jean, and mother, Marie are doing their best to give their teenage son and daughter, Patrick and Jacquline, and their little boy, Yves, the best life possible.
The family has a simple home and a farm that earns them a little money. Jean and Marie have very little education, but they’re working to help their kids get an education and improve their chances for a comfortable life.
There are a few international NGOs (non-government organizations) trying to help members of the impoverished community, but they need volunteers to get any major project off the ground.
The Guinard family faces some difficult challenges resulting from poverty, severe weather, and even potential violence. But if they’re careful and lucky, they may have a chance at a better life.
You have four years to help the Guinard family as they confront the “cost of life.” Good luck!
So far I have yet to survive four years (my average is about two), and this game was created BEFORE the current environment resulting from the tragic earthquake in Haiti on Jan. 12, 2010. This all-ages online experience is both heart-breaking and hopeful–I recommend you play!
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When to go
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The History of Madrid, Spain
Madrid's Plaza Mayor Madrid's Royal Palace
The site of Madrid has been occupied since prehistoric times, as has been shown by numerous objects found during different excavations along the banks of the River Manzanares. Many of these objects (axes and small Palaeolithic objects, remains of animals that prove the existence of large mammals, Neolithic ceramics, etc.) can be seen at the National Archaeological Museum. Madrid's population was initially Iberian and later Roman, and is possibly the Mantua found in certain ancient references and the Roman Miacum from the "Antonine itinerary", although some historians dispute this.
It is now commonly believed that the original name of the settlement here was Matrice, a pre-Muslim word, which refers to the waters of the area and particularly to the stream running down the Calle de Segovia.
However, Madrid as such does not achieve a mention in chronicles until the late tenth century, at which time there was already a fort or castle where the Royal Palace stands today. This fort was occupied by the Moors, who having named the River Manzanares al-Magrit ("source of water"), referred to the area as Mayrit (from which Magerit, then Madrid) and around which the borough of Madrid developed in the following centuries. The old arab walls surrounding this settlement can still be seen today (more info here).
Between several different warriors, the Moors kept rule until Madrid was finally conquered in 1085 by Alfonso VI in his advance towards Toledo. This king ordered the main mosque within the fort's walls to be "purified" and consecrated as a Catholic church under the guidance of the Virgin of the Almudena, the name deriving from a religious icon found near the "almudín" or wheat deposit. La Virgen de la Almudena later became Madrid's female patron saint, whose saint's day is celebrated on 9th November and who gives her name to Madrid's cathedral.
In the year 1329, King Fernando V assembled The Court of Madrid for the first time.
A little later, due to the Reconquista, Moors and Jews formed a concentrated population in the area that still today carries the name of Morería, but in 1494 the "unbelievers" were expelled and the mosque and other indicative buildings disappeared.
Later, Madrid was taken by the followers of Enrique of Tastamara and ceded by Juan I to King Leon V of Armenia who was then dethroned by the Sultan of Babilonia. Having been destroyed by fire during the reign of Enrique II, the city was rebuilt by his grandson Enrique III, who reincorporated Madrid under the Crown of Castille and who also founded El Pardo, situated just outside the city.
Enrique VI gave Madrid the title of "Very Noble and Loyal" and celebrated here his magnificent wedding with Doña Juana of Portugal. The death of the king caused the formation of two distinct bands within the Castille kingdom - the two sides disputing the succession of the throne. Isabel and her supporters overcame Doña Juana's followers and the victorious "Catholic Kings" (Isabel and her husband Fernando) solemnly entered the city to reside in a mansion in the Plaza de la Paja owned by Don Pedro Lasso de la Vega.
During the war of Communities, the Borough of Madrid took sides with the "Comuneros", although this did not prevent Emperor Carlos V bestowing on the city the title of "Crowned and Imperial". As remnants of these times we can cite the Church of San Jerónimo, the Church of del Paso and the Tower of Lujanes, this last in the Plaza de la Villa, opposite the Ayuntamiento or City Hall where Francis I of France was held prisoner after his defeat at Pravia in Italy.
Carlos V was certainly enamoured with Madrid, amongst other things because he managed to cure himself here of tertian fever. However, it was his son, Felipe II who moved the Imperial Court to Madrid in 1561, although without making any official declaration. The population of the borough at this time was around 25,000. From this time Madrid was now the kingdom's capital, apart from the brief years between 1601 and 1606 when Felipe III installed his court in Valladolid.
Madrid enjoyed significant changes during the 18th century, when city gates, bridges and new buildings gave it a new appearance. The Royal Palace (also called the Eastern Palace - Palacio de Oriente, standing next to the large Plaza de Oriente square) was constructed on the site of the ruins of the Alcazar or old Moorish Castle which had been destroyed by fire in 1734. After 1738 Juan B. Sachetti directed the construction work on the Palace, helped out to some extent by Ventura Rodríguez and developing on original plans made by Juavera. The work was practically completed by 1760.
The reign of Carlos III (1759 - 1788) helped to greatly improve the appearance of the city. The work on the Royal Palace was totally completed (as we know it today), as was the construction of the city gates of Puerta de Toledo, Puerta de Segovia (no longer standing) and Puerta de Alcalá, together with the Royal Theatre, the building that now houses the Ministry of Finance (Hacienda), the Natural Science Museum, the Botanical Gardens and the temple of San Francisco El Grande, amongst others. Also, the Retiro Park was significantly improved and several new buildings built: Casa de Cisneros, the General Hospital, the College of San Carlos, the Royal Mint, Casa de los Geranios and the fountains of Cibeles, Neptune and Apollo.
The reign of Carlos IV gave Madrid the Buenavista Palace (today the Ministry of Armed Forces) and other notable mansions such as that of the Dukes of Liria in Princesa Street and that of the Count of Altamira in Calle de la Flor.
On the 2nd of May 1808 a popular revolt started in the Puerta del Sol, initiating the War of Independence. There are numerous place names in Madrid dedicated to these patriotic disturbances, the most significant being of course the Plaza Dos de Mayo in Malasaña. Once General Castaños had repelled the invaders in Bailén, he entered Madrid on 23rd August 1808. However, there were further battles when Emperor Napoleon presented himself in Chamartín and also in December of the same year when José Bonaparte entered Spain, only to be expelled three years later under pressure from the Anglo-Hispanic army led by Wellington. The last of the French left Madrid on the 27th May 1813 and the following year King Fernando VII entered the city.
In 1835 the famous University of Alcalá de Henares was transferred to Madrid, where the Faculty of Science was added, becoming the Universidad Complutense de Madrid.
The city continued to be improved during the reign of Isabel II with old houses in the Puerta del Sol being pulled down and the Congreso de los Diputados or Parliament, Royal and Zarzuela Theatres and the Canal de Isabel II (Madrid's water lifeline) being built. Also, in 1857, Madrid's gas lighting system was inaugurated.
Since then Madrid's urban progress has accelerated to reach, today, the level of one of Europe's most beautiful capital cities - pleasing both for its intense animated spirit and its suitable mix of modern and classical appearance.
Copyright © GoMadrid.com.
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Can I flip like reading the realistic paper books?
A: Android book app maker allows you to encrypt book content in case anyone who want to make trouble for you extract your book content illegally. Of course you also can choose do not encrypt in order to speed the book opening. How to encrypt please refers to below steps:
1. 1 After create a book, edit content, etc, you may want to config its basic information, so you click button 'Config';
2. 2 Select the option "Encryption";
3. 3 Check the checkbox "Encrypt the content of the book";encrypt book app content
4. 4 Then click "OK" and continue to build Book.
Copyright©2013 AppMK. All rights reserved
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First Things
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Friday, December 21, 2012, 10:58 AM
Pope Benedict made the annual papal Christmas address to his Curia today, in which popes reveal their thoughts on the state of the Church and the world. Benedict focused his remarks on the family, the nature of interreligious dialogue, and the new evangelization. Of particular interest are his strong remarks on the family, in which he affirms its fundamental nature and role and sees it threatened not only by a mistaken conception of human freedom but chiefly by a “new philosophy of sexuality” under the mutable banner of “gender” rooted in the denial of Being:
James Bradshaw
December 21st, 2012 | 11:42 am
Is this always a bad thing? I’m glad that some folks have decided not to live up to some culturally imposed gender role: we have male chefs along with women physicians and politicians and even military leaders. They co-exist just fine along with male firefighters and female “stay-at-home moms”.
Many of these cultural ideals are arbitrary, anyhow: didn’t our “manly” forefathers wear powdered wigs and silk stockings?
Further, people with physical limitations often attempt to rise above them: I’ve seen amputees run marathons, for example.
Is it true that only women have a uterus and that only they can bear a child? Sure, but so what? What other conclusions are we supposed to draw from this?
Alexander S. Anderson
December 21st, 2012 | 12:35 pm
James, the Pope’s entire point is that sex differences are not all cultural, that they cannot all be controlled and stripped away. At the end of the day, we are both body and soul, and not just will. He attacks these assumptions, but instead of defending them, you just assert them. The pope is saying that man has a nature that is received, and not decided by him, and you treat the Pope as if he were trying to decide our nature, without really proving that that’s what he’s doing.
Justin R
December 21st, 2012 | 1:52 pm
Step back, think about what the first sentence of your final paragraph implies. Then consider your response to it. You dismiss the potential for human creation, life sustainment and child-bearing with a, “so what?”. Your frivolous treatment betrays a lack of understanding or seriousness or both.
If you do not believe that, alone, disregarding the myriad other differences, doesn’t mean we have been given a specific nature by God, I recommend trying to breastfeed your next child.
Merry Christmas.
December 21st, 2012 | 2:32 pm
James, you got a lot of learning to do, that is clear. And I am not talking about culture. Maybe you can start with the old left-right brain things that scientists figured out decades ago. Male brains don’t work the same way as female brains. We have less connections from left to right. That alone is a pretty big deal. After all, everything starts from the brain, doesn’t it? How about hormones? The fact that men and women have different hormonal makeups is not something made up by right wing religious nuts. Hormones affect the brain, more differences. It isn’t just about the ability to make babies.
Andrew O'BRien
December 21st, 2012 | 2:46 pm
James –
One problem the Pope sees – and a lot of us who trust the Church as an expert on human nature – is not the plasticity of certain cultural conceptions of masculinity and femininity but that a lot of these more modern conceptions back into a false dilemma.
For example, while it could be true that more women nowadays have more specific career aspirations than they have had in the past, the that she has been taught to pursue these goals has pit her against herself. Her biology is seen as an obstacle to these goals and thus an obstacle that stands in the way of her happiness. Her fertility is then a problem in need of a solution. It isn’t uncommon nowadays to find fertility treated like an illness – exemplified by the fact that women go to doctors (people who heal) in order to have this problem cured (by interfering with the beauty of their feminine biology).
But Pope Benedict doesn’t buy into this dilemma. Neither do I. Women might just find that they would be happier if they viewed their biological capabilities as a good thing pursued their personal goals without subverting their biological nature.
December 21st, 2012 | 3:17 pm
Most men are also physically much stronger than most women. In most cases, the difference is drastic. For example, a female professional tennis player will normally find a male high school tennis player to be a decent challenge.
It has been my experience that unfortunately women do not always do the same job as well as men, when that job involves physical strength and the enforcement of strict discipline. The US military is rife with double standards created in the name of “equality.” For starters, the physical fitness requirements are different for men and women. There were many instances where the women did not pull their weight in terms of getting physical work done, and they were often lax in confronting subordinates directly, preferring to gossip and spread rumors.
If women are capable of passing the same physical fitness requirements as men, and of impassionately maintaining good order and discipline, then they have earned the right to military office. In my experience, though, they’re generally not as good at those things as men are.
Sex differences are real. Of course, women are much better than men at other things. In certain respects, women’s strengths — mercy, social graces, beauty — are more noble than the physical dominance and preoccupation with rank and with control that men excel at. Men and women can learn much from each other, and marriage is the institution par excellence in which such learning occurs. But men can only learn from women as women, and women can only learn from men as men, not as blandly amorphous asexual things.
December 21st, 2012 | 3:24 pm
As concerned as I am with James’ easy dismissal of women’s ability to bear children, at heart I think he confuses the difference between roles a culture deems appropriate for men and women and the inherent differences and complementary attributes of each sex. Thankfully we’ve arrived at a point where most arbitrary role distinctions have been eliminated; that does not mean men and women are the same.
jason taylor
December 25th, 2012 | 12:29 pm
Whence comes this priviledging of the “natural” over the “social”? Those who have no “social nature”(the only ones of which are abandoned feral infants) are so traumatized that they are pretty much insane. The natural IS the social.
January 3rd, 2013 | 4:36 am
The nature of humankind is social and two-sexed, not one without the other. However, this or that particular socialization is not a given. Socialization in accord with human nature is the pith of the issue raised by Benedict.
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Yeasayer: The Jam Band Goes Digital
The charms of Odd Blood, the trio's latest fretless-bass campfire dance party
New iTunes genre tag: "LOL Brooklyn." New entry under said tag: Yeasayer's Odd Blood, wherein the fanciest of boroughs gets its very own Tears for Fears. Geographically sprawling, blithely psychedelic, deadly earnest, unapologetically corny, wantonly synth-overloaded, occasionally transcendent '80s new wave frivolity—r&b for people who still refuse to listen to actual r&b. Shameless is the move. You can do worse. Many people will. So make like their famously NSFW "Ambling Alp" video, take off all your clothes, mind that glowing geodesic dome, start sprinting precariously downhill through the desert, and let's do this.
Yeasayer's 2007 debut, All Hour Cymbals, occasioned more instances of the word "tribal" than any other record, ever. Like an apocalyptic campfire sing-along drenched in reverb and manic percussion, barely skirting the worldly cheeseball pop of Deep Forest or Enigma, and sometimes not skirting it at all. The band played a couple of mildly zeitgeist-y Bowery Ballroom shows with MGMT, who seemed like doppelgängers at first but turned out to be way poppier and more nihilistic. (And marketable.) Whereas Cymbals' best quality is its blatant, aching sincerity: "I can't sleep when I think about the times we're living in/I can't sleep when I think about the future I was born into," co-frontman Chris Keating moans on "2080" (as in, "In 2080, I'll surely be dead"). "Red Cave" ended the album with a startlingly direct chant: "I'm so blessed to have spent the time/With my family/And the friends I love/In my short life/I have met so many people I deeply care for," repeatedly intoned, amid yearning sitars, with a Jesus Christ Superstar sort of guilelessness, daring you to laugh. A sweet, solemn affirmation worthy of the band's name.
Chris Keating, looking sharp
Santiago Felipe
Chris Keating, looking sharp
And now, a few years later, despite all the nudity-based visual and sonic wackiness (concussive drums, squiggly keyboards, some farting horns to offset those multi-part, karaoke-proof bouts of flamboyant falsetto), Odd Blood's "Ambling Alp" is basically a jazzercise self-help seminar. Chorus: "Stick up for yourself, son/Never mind what anybody else does." Triumphant conclusion: "Now the world can be an unfair place at times/But your lows will have their complement of highs." (Fans of The Secret, take note.) The lyrics are daring you to laugh again: "Everybody's talkin' 'bout me and my baby," Keating breathlessly intones on the manic "Mondegreen," amid a stuttering, booming yeti-handclap beat and more horns, more thunderous keyboards, more everything. "Makin' love to the morning light/Makin' love till the morning, morning light/Makin' love till the morning." Another tune mimics the pornographic robo-funk of Of Montreal, but instead of being called "Heimdalsgate Like a Promethean Curse" or whatever, it's called "Love Me Girl," and it is serious.
It's tempting to lump these boys in with Animal Collective and be done with it: lush, grandiose drum-circle overproduction in the service of the twee-est sentiments imaginable, four walls and adobe slabs here replaced by stuff like, "You don't move me anymore/And I'm glad that you don't." But succumb to this brazen goofiness (and survive military-stiff, plodding, android-voiced, seemingly deliberately terrible opening track "The Children," the ogre guarding the bridge), and this can all actually be delightful. When the triumphant oooh-wee-oooh chants burst into view like a twin sunrise on "Madder Red," you can either flee in terror or go prancing toward Narnia along with them. "O.N.E.," led by warmer-voiced co-frontman Anand Wilder, ascends to flashback-lunch dance-party heaven. And "I Remember" is a monster ballad, the synths and Keating's falsetto both even goopier than usual, overwhelming in their kaleidoscopic ardor. Chorus: "You're stuck in my mind/All the time." That'll do, pig.
That one goes over pretty big Monday night, back at the Bowery Ballroom—no MGMT this time, just a packed room of blissful proto-hippies who request a neighborly iPhone light to assist in rolling their joints. (All right, that's just the one guy, but still.) Even with five dudes onstage, there's plenty of canned drumbeat and synthesizer action, leaving the actual drummer and his miscellaneous-percussion cohort a little lost and superfluous at times, though the latter does illustrate the old zen koan that the only way to look remotely badass while playing maracas is to be dramatically, colorfully backlit. For a long while, Cymbals tracks integrate everything and everyone together far more effectively; "Wait for the Summer," though a pretty breezy handclaps-and-quasi-yodeling affair, is an instant energy jolt. It takes me nine songs before I even notice that fretless bass, that most potentially disastrous of instruments, is prominently involved here.
We survive. "Mondegreen," the yeti-handclap tune, shows up late in the set and is much improved from the Odd Blood version—less cluttered, more lithe and muscular, magically transformed into a sort of aggro reggaeton. There's a lot happening with these guys, a considerable amount of it somewhat ill-advised, but the whole electro-jam-band thing wins you over, eventually. We climax with "Ambling Alp," that dopey chorus shouted en masse, a roomful of converts suggesting, in unison, that you think for yourself. There's a little fretless bass solo at the end. We don't mind.
Yeasayer play Webster Hall May 4
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Tell me more ×
An index fund tracks the underlying index. So if one invests 100 $ in an index fund tracking S&P 500, and the index grows 8 % in a year, will the 100 $ grow to 108 $?
If not, how can the investor predict the earnings for his investment?
share|improve this question
3 Answers
up vote 7 down vote accepted
An index fund tracks the performance of an index by investing in securities in the benchmark in the same proportions as the benchmark. The funds track their indexes pretty closely, with the following factors contributing to deviations:
• Dividends. Some indexes exclude the dividends in their numbers, while the fund invested in the stocks of the index earns dividends. This helps the fund outperform the index.
• Cash. Because of redemptions and contributions, some of the fund's funds are in cash rather than securities. Example: if 5% of the fund is in cash, only 95% is subject to growth or decline. If the market goes up 1%, the fund's value goes up 0.95%. Similarly if the market goes down 1% the fund loses 0.95%. This helps the fund outperform in bad markets and underperform in bad markets.
• Fee: the fund incurs expenses for management, infrastructure, administrative fees, etc. The index is a theoretical portfolio. This hurts the fund's performance relative to the index.
• Trading: Funds incur trading costs any time contributions or redemptions occur. Also some indexes are rebalanced frequently, causing funds that follow them to trade more frequently to keep matched to the benchmark. This hurts performance.
• Benchmark deviations: While the funds attempt to mirror the index, they can never do it 100% at all times due to market fluctuations, purchase timings, etc. This can either hurt or help the performance of the fund.
Hope this helps.
share|improve this answer
In the case of a index such as the S&P and its largest ETF, SPY, the fees are deducted from dividends, with a current yield of 1.73% and expenses of .09%, there's little risk the dividend wont be sufficient to cover the expenses. The ETF price should track the S&P very closely, the total return in a given year should be close to .09% less than the index total return.
On the other hand, there are ETFs that don't quite do the job tracking that they might. I wrote a piece on this titled ETF'ed in which I describe one such product.
share|improve this answer
Yes, it will grow the same as the underlying fund minus the fund fees which is usually something like couple percent the whole fund property every year, so the fund actually grows less than the index.
share|improve this answer
It 'should' grow the same; or nearly the same, depending on how well it tracks the index. – ChrisW Jun 14 '11 at 13:28
@ChrisW: Yes, but don't forget the fees - the management company want money too. – sharptooth Jun 14 '11 at 13:29
Your Answer
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Bush accepts Iran nuclear operations
Concession is called way to continue negotiations
WASHINGTON --President Bush and the Chinese government both declared their full support yesterday for a Russian proposal to allow Iran to operate civilian nuclear facilities as long as Russia and international nuclear inspectors are in full control of the fuel.
Bush's explicit public endorsement puts all of the major powers on record supporting the idea, even as most acknowledge that it is a significant concession to Iran and runs the risk that it will drag out the negotiations while continuing to produce nuclear material.
Yet officials say they believe it is the best face-saving strategy to pursue negotiations with Iran.
European and U.S. officials familiar with the details of the offer that Russia made to Iran say that Iran would continue to be allowed to operate its nuclear facility at Isfahan, which converts raw uranium into a form that is ready to be enriched.
That is a step both Europe and the United States said last year that they could not allow - and that was explicitly barred under the agreement between Iran and Europe in late 2004 because Iran could divert the uranium to secret enrichment facilities.
Iran began operating the Isfahan facility again in August.
Bush did not discuss the details of the Russian offer. But American, European and Russian officials, who like others discussing the issue spoke on the condition of anonymity because they did not want to be seen as interfering in the negotiations, said the offer would allow Iran to continue operations at the plant that turns yellowcake, a concentrated form of uranium ore, into uranium hexafluoride, a toxic material that centrifuges spin into fuel for reactors or bombs.
Critics of that concession say it could send a signal to Iran that it no longer has to comply with all provisions of its November 2004 agreement with Europe.
"A red line was crossed" when Iran began producing uranium last fall, said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, a nonpartisan research group that follows developments in Iran.
"The Iranians got away with reopening the conversion facility, and now people have accepted it's never going to be shut again and have taken it off the table."
Bush made his statement embracing the Russian idea at a news conference yesterday in which he declared: "The Iranians have said, `We want a weapon.'"
In fact, Iran has denied that it is pursuing a weapon, and in the afternoon, the White House spokesman, Scott McClellan, acknowledged that Bush had misspoken.
"He was referring to their behavior," McClellan said by telephone later. "Our concern is their intention is to develop a nuclear weapon under the guise of a civilian program."
Nonetheless, Bush's slip could cement the perception among some members of the board of the International Atomic Energy Agency that he has decided, at least in his own mind, that Iran is intent on building a weapon as fast as it can, a situation he has said repeatedly he would not tolerate. Bush gave no hint yesterday that he was thinking of military action, instead saying, "We are working hard to continue the diplomacy necessary to send a focused message to the Iranian government, and that is: `Your desires for a weapon are unacceptable.'"
Bush's statement came at a moment of heightened concern in Vienna, Austria, home of the IAEA, that if the agency's board votes next week to send Iran's case to the U.N. Security Council, Iran might make good on its threat to limit cooperation with inspectors and begin full-scale enrichment of uranium.
North Korea threw out inspectors three years ago, and one senior American official said recently that "the Iranians have looked closely at that model."
Baltimore Sun Articles
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Tell me more ×
Is there a way by which you can measure replication lag in MySQL with a resolution of less than 1 second?
That is, can replication lag be measured on the microsecond or millisecond level?
share|improve this question
The built-in "seconds behind master" is terribly inaccurate and a guesstimate at best. I hope the answer includes a finer resolution and a more accurate number. – David Hall Jan 4 '11 at 19:19
Can it even be that precise? I mean, we're talking about stuff that takes time to transfer, apply, etc. Getting to 8 significant figures or whatever isn't really that much of a help when it's going to fluctuate slightly with load, network traffic, etc. – Joe Jan 4 '11 at 22:52
see How to accept an answer – jcolebrand May 31 '11 at 2:37
4 Answers
up vote 7 down vote accepted
Have you tried maatkit heartbeat ? This is the one I'm currently using. You will need another perl process running, but from my perspective, this is much more helpful than the current MySQL mechanism.
I'm also using mk-slave-delay to generate lag. I keep a 1 hour lag in one of the slave to have an extra layer of protection in case of SQL injection or user errors.
These two scripts do the trick.
share|improve this answer
As a quick and dirty answer, you may want to use the source code and create a UDF to make replication monitor the lag in microseconds.
However, I thought of an interesting method for figuring out a more granular approach to replication.
Create a database (replagdb) whose sole purpose is to record this granular timestamp. Within the replagdb database, create a table that only holds a floating point number representing the timestamp.
use replagdb
INSERT INTO replagtb VALUES (0);
Create a perl script the opens a DB Connection on the master, and then in an infinite loop performs this on the master:
1. Get the output of date +"%s.%N" from the OS on the master
2. UPDATE replagdb.replagtb SET tmstmp = numberFromStep1;
Letting this replicate from the master to the slave, you could then perform this on the slave:
1. Get the output of date +"%s.%N" from the OS on the slave, store it in a variable t1
2. SELECT tmstmp FROM replagdb.replagtb and store this in variable t2.
3. Set variable df = t1 - t2
df will represent the replication lag as a double precision floating point number.
To prevent massive relay log growth on the slave, you must set max_relay_log_size to 8G on the slave. You must also carefully monitor the rate of growth for your master's binary logs.
share|improve this answer
There are several issues inventing a precise replication delay metric.
• If your slave is on the other side of the world, you could have a 200ms delay just because of the connection distance.
• Similarly, if you are monitoring from here, but your slave is there, you information will be another 200ms out of date.
• If you inject a precise heartbeat, all it tells you is the delay in that heartbeat; it tells you nothing about the long statement that started right after it. Nor the statements that are queued up behind that statement.
• If you inject a sub-second heartbeat too often, you will be slowing down replication.
How do you expect to "use" a precise heartbeat?
share|improve this answer
Maatkit's mk-heartbeat tool has support for microsecond-precision timestamps in recent versions. This will do what you are looking for.
share|improve this answer
Good to know (+1). BTW Congrats on becoming an Oracle ACE !!! – RolandoMySQLDBA Aug 11 '11 at 17:13
Your Answer
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http://dba.stackexchange.com/questions/199/is-there-a-way-to-measure-replication-lag-in-mysql-with-a-resolution-less-than-1
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The KDE vs. GNOME Schism In Free Software
Posted by Michael Larabel on September 27, 2011
Martin writes that the schism between different Linux desktop environments is still in place. Martin also calls for greater collaboration between the GNOME and KDE projects. "I hope that also the two organizations around KDE and GNOME can help to make a united vision come true. Why is there no mention of GNOME on the KDE web site? Why is there no mention of KDE on the GNOME web site? Why are release notes of GNOME not published on the KDE news site, isn’t it a news worthy event if our collaborators have a release? Why is it so strange that a picture of a GNOME developer is in a release note of KDE that it has to be mentioned in a keynote at Desktop Summit? Such collaborations should be normal and nothing which needs to be mentioned."
Read more in Martin's blog post.
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You are here: Home>Collections>Cricket
LEADER ARTICLE: South Asia's New Czars
SWAGATO GANGULY, Oct 1, 2007, 12.36am IST
In trademark commando style, General Musharraf stated he would give up his army post only after, and not before, he is re-elected president. There's an implicit threat here. If he does not have his way with the presidency he will re-assume his military role, and may even use it to suspend Pakistan's democratic process. Sure enough, he managed to bend both the election commission and the supreme court to his will.
The charge against civilian politicians is that they are corrupt. But the Pakistani military, particularly the army, has massive economic interests of its own, ranging from businesses whose costs are financed out of the military budget to access to prime plots of lands for high-ranking officers. Musharraf himself has acquired eight plots worth $10 million. Because the military controls economic resources as well as institutions of governance, civilian politicians and businessmen need to make themselves beholden to it. Such entitlements set up the Pakistani military as a superior caste, with privileges far greater than ordinary inhabitants of the realm.
Is this a moment for Indians to turn condescending? Has Indian democracy delivered us from the seductions of an illiberal oligarchy? Though India is currently getting raves in global media while Pakistan gets mostly bad press, the uncomfortable truth is that in terms of ensuring a decent existence for the majority of their citizens the difference between them may be like the margin of India's victory over Pakistan in the T20 cricket World Cup finals: a question of five runs here or there.
If we look at the human development record of democratic India and military-feudal Pakistan, it's mostly a race to the bottom. India comes in at 126th on the UNDP's human development (HDI) rankings, squeaking past Pakistan at 134th. Both lag behind Gabon, Namibia, Tajikistan and Equatorial Guinea.
Pakistan may have its Islamic extremism which fuels military autocracy. But India has Fabian socialism, the doctrine that decrees that a government-fostered elite should have extraordinary powers of direction over the rest of society because it knows the interests of the governed better than the governed themselves. Translated into Hindi, that's mai-baap sarkar. Its proselytisers and mandarins, present among politicians, bureaucrats, judiciary, academics and intellectuals, make up a neo-Brahmin elite. We may be a democracy, but one enmeshed in bureaucratic red tape.
While Pakistan's military elite invokes the spectre of the corrupt politician to stay in power, India's neo-Brahmins scare us with the bogey of the bad businessman. If Pakistan empowers its military and mullahs, the neta-babu nexus is supreme in India. They would not only like to occupy the commanding heights of the economy — which makes PSU disinvestment a lost cause — they wish to command every sector of civilian life through state patronage.
There's no more graphic illustration of that than what happened when India's victorious T20 team landed in Mumbai. In a function ostensibly meant to felicitate India's triumphant sport heroes, those who lifted the World Cup were crowded out of the front row of the Wankhede stadium dais by BCCI babus and Maharashtra's ruling politicians. Those who the crowds had come to see, the cricket players themselves, were relegated to back rows and obscured from view (with the sole exception of skipper M S Dhoni). This would be unthinkable in most countries, particularly liberal-democratic states.
Netas and babus tend to be against economic reform, because it would prune their functions and cede space to civil society. Those who argue for and against economic reform are both party to a myth: that India has carried out large-scale reforms. The World Bank's latest study shows that India ranks 120th among 178 countries in ease of doing business, which closely tracks its human development rankings. It is actually the second worst performer in South Asia, ahead only of Afghanistan at 159. Liberal reforms have been half-hearted at best, crippled by the perception India's neo-Brahmins like to propagate that they will hurt the aam aadmi. They are undertaken only when it seems the whole house might come crashing down, as happened in 1991 when India was running out of foreign exchange to pay for imports.
Neither does the Hindutva right seriously challenge the Fabian Left. Both see reform and globalisation in a negative light. They want to roll back the retail revolution, which could rescue Indian agriculture and benefit the consumer. They jointly oppose the India-US nuclear treaty. The issues they differ on are unwordly ones: whether Rama existed, and whether a ridge running underneath the Palk Straits were built by workmanlike monkey troops belonging to his army.
But even if Left and Right are conspiring to kill the liberal middle, there's still hope. There's a civil society upsurge in Pakistan that could topple Musharraf. Even if he unleashes large-scale repression he will have to do it before the television cameras, a new factor in Pakistani politics. India has world-class companies in its private sector and a growing middle class, planting the seed of its future growth. Indian media regularly highlights issues which embarrass the politicians. Perhaps that's precisely why the information and broadcasting ministry — a Fabian stronghold which any half-decent liberal democracy ought to abolish — is readying a draconian broadcasting Bill which will throttle media freedom. The empire will not go away easily, it looks for ways to strike back.
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4 Things You Need to Know About Child Molestation
Oprah.com | February 08, 2010
Admitted child molesters
Stranger Danger Myth
Over the decades, Oprah has done countless shows about child abuse and sexual predators…but this is a first. In January 2010, Oprah sat down with four admitted child molesters and their therapist, Dawn Horwitz-Person, for a frank discussion about the cycle of abuse, graphic details of their crimes and how they methodically groomed their victims.
"I was raped at 9 and molested from the ages of 9 through 14, and because of that, I've always wanted to be able to sit down and talk to a group of child molesters and ask them why and how they do what they do," Oprah says. "It's the most honest conversation I've ever had with sex offenders."
Watch Oprah's two-hour conversation in its entirety. Watch
After getting a rare insight into the minds of molesters, Oprah says there are four things every person should know.
First, 90 percent of child molesters know their victims. Most are not strangers who lurk in the bushes, waiting to kidnap children. "We're talking about family friends, uncles, fathers, brothers and neighbors," Oprah says. "Less than 10 percent of molesters are the strangers who are abducting kids who you see on the news."
Before Lee was caught molesting a 5-year-old girl, he says he was a close friend of the girl's family. His victim even called him "Grandpa." "She relied on me quite a bit instead of her parents," Lee says.
Both Darren and David were related to their victims. David says he molested and raped a close family member for 12 years, while Darren was once sexually obsessed with his 12-year-old daughter.
At first, Darren says he had sexual fantasies about his daughter. Then, he began to act on these fantasies. He started touching her inappropriately while she slept or pretended to sleep out of fear. Over time, the abuse escalated. "I asked her if I could orally copulate her, and she said no," Darren says. "She actually told me once that, 'I didn't want you to do that because you're my dad.'"
Despite her plea, Darren says the abuse continued.
Oprah and Dawn Horwitz-Person
How They Gain Victims' Trust
The second thing Oprah wants every parent to know is molesters don't choose their victims at random. They seek out vulnerable children, gain their trust and seduce them.
"It's all very calculated, and it's all very deliberate," Oprah says. "Without trust … the sexual abuse is not possible. Trust is the number one factor that they need to succeed."
Robert, a man who has raped four young girls, says he gained the girls' trust by telling them he loved them. He also sought out girls who displayed similar characteristics. "I see anger in her—anger against her parents, retaliation against their parents," he says. "I see trust for them toward me."
Dawn says some molesters don't think they're doing any harm because they don't cause the child physical pain. "I think that's why [the abuse] continues, too, because of that trusting relationship," she says. "They oftentimes don't yell, don't scream, don't tell right away, which reinforces their belief system."
David says he was able to seduce and rape a family member because she was neglected by her parents. "I was the only one there in her world who would listen to her, who would validate her," he says. "That gave me such power over her."
Lee discusses the grooming process
The Grooming Process
The third lesson is that some abusers are so conniving, they are able to manipulate their victims and make the molestation feel good. "That confuses the child into blaming themselves when it's never the victim's fault," Oprah says.
According to these men, the "grooming" process starts early, and at first, it's subtle.
"How I initiated my grooming process is I would listen to her, and then I would listen to her with my hand on her shoulder," David says. "Then we would cuddle on the couch together, and then [I was] priming her for me to be physically intimate with her."
Darren says he gave his daughter back and foot rubs so she'd get used to being physically touched by him before he started touching her sexually. "It kind of creates a bond," he says. "I knew it was wrong, but I justified it in my own mind by saying it was a special thing between us, and I wasn't hurting her."
Even though Lee was in his 60s when he molested a 5-year-old, he says he truly believed he was giving her physical pleasure.
"You didn't think that you were a disgusting old man?" Oprah asks.
"At the time after it got started, yes," Lee says. "After I started it, to me it was just too late to stop."
How Parents Can Protect Their Children
Lastly—and most importantly—these admitted child molesters say there are things parents can do to protect their sons and daughters.
First, Lee says to be on the alert. "You don't have to mistrust everybody," he says. "But at least open your eyes and look around and see what's happening." If you're at a party and you notice someone who spends more time with the children than the adults, Lee says it's a red flag.
When Darren's daughter first reported her abuse, Darren says he lied his way out of it. Now, he urges parents to pay attention to their children's cues and listen to them. "When they tell you someone touched me, you believe them, because kids don't lie about that stuff," he says. "A lot of times, they'll be dismissed because they'll believe the adult instead of the child. Listen to the children."
"Is there anything your daughter could have done to have stopped you?" Oprah asks.
"She did. She turned me in, and I'm very proud of her for that," Darren says. "She had every right to protect herself, and I'm glad she took that initiative."
If you're the victim of abuse, Oprah says the best way to make it stop is to tell someone. "If they don't believe you, you keep telling until somebody does," she says. "Molesters do not want you to talk. Tell somebody today."
More from Oprah's conversation with child molesters
How potential child molesters can get help
Printed from Oprah.com on Saturday, May 18, 2013
© 2012 Harpo Productions, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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Tuesday, April 30, 2013
Election time and Filipino stupidity
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
5 things you should be doing at least once in your lifetime
Life is too short and the living is not always an easy ride. If you try to listen to the news, the negative things are always in a war with the good ones for dominance. The world has become, as it’s been from the very beginning, a battleground between the forces of good and evil. But no matter how the world has become good or bad in the process and changed we should remember that, as citizens of this world, we have (individual) duties and obligations that we must carry out to make this planet a much better place in which to live. The following are, in my own opinion, just 5 of the things each one of us should be doing at least once in our lifetime:
1. Take time to plant trees. Planting trees is one of the best of gifts you can give to Mother Earth and for the future generations. Trees help create shades, filter pollution from the air, prevent soil erosion, provide a dwelling place for animals, help recycle water, and many more.
2. Take time to give to the needy. To freely share what you have to others (be it help, time, or money) without expectation or reward in return is one of the most rewarding of acts you can do for yourself. We must remember what Jesus had said: “It is more blessed to give than to receive.”
3. Take time to learn a new language. Learning a new language allows you to better understand other people’s culture and history. It is through this understanding that the gap between ignorance and cultural differences shall be bridged.
4. Take time to write a poem. While not all of us are born poets, you can still make a poet out of your own self. Poetry writing is one of the purest forms of expression while, at the same time, it reconciles you to the world. Be the poet that you are capable of making by writing down what you feel and think.
5. Take time to make a pilgrimage. It is an oldest form of religiousness. But wherever your journey may take you and for whatever reason motivating you to do it, one thing is certain though: it is to seek inspiration, by which one wants to gain a new perspective, for a change of mind and heart.
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
The Korean crisis: Are we on the brink of war?
With the latest situation involving the two Koreas getting worse--the North and the South--together with the South's ally the United States and with such a slim chance of bringing such a case to the negotiating table at the moment, which fought a battle some five decades ago, would only suggest that war is imminent. War should be at all times avoided but if all means to peaceful settlement of any dispute done and failed, then war begins. It will be fought again with renewed fury--a rematch in the battle for supremacy these two countries are waging and one that could affect at least 70 percent of the world’s population. Yet I hope these two countries would finally settle their differences by talking it all out in the table. Threats from Nokor (North Korea) which are going to include launching of missiles with nuclear capability aimed at Seoul, Tokyo, US military bases in the Pacific, or even reaching as far as the mainland US, should not be taken lightly. North Korea has the world’s largest military with its million-strong standing army which could outnumber the South, but with the US backing the South the retaliation would be devastating should the North invades.
Will North Korea becomes just another Iraq should the war erupts? It’s hard to make comparison between the two countries but North Korea poses a real threat for any country than what was the Saddam Hussein-era Iraq appeared to be hyped. It’s only that North Korea would likely to become the advance party or as pawns pushed on purpose and when that happens new enemies would emerge later on. China will top the list. When the Korean crisis develops into a full-blown conflict and hit a domino effect with every nation, the world will be at war again. This generation will be witnessing a magnified version of World War II. World population will be cut by half as a result of that war. North Korea would be crushed out and China will be paying a heavy price. The United States will remain the world’s lone superpower country. Nations will be rebuilt. Life will be back to normal (although it will never be the same again after a war fought with nuclear warheads).
War should only be the last resort. But oftentimes it happened by accident and one by which our leaders should be held most accountable with out of such a great responsibility imposed upon them. North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un, as inexperienced a leader as he is and can be, should make no mistake. He must give his people freedom instead, not war.
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
This country needs a good, strong leader, not weak, pretentious leadership
This country needs a good, strong leader, not weak, pretentious leadership. A leader who could defend Philippine pride and freedom. A leader who do not only know the history of his own people and nation very well but, also, one who can make the beating of every citizen's heart as his own; a leader who treats his people like his own children. A leader who understands, provide services, protection and, most importantly, one who will never abandon his children in the face of danger no matter how much his children have failed to listen to him in the process. Yes, to some degree, he must be a disciplinarian. But his reconciliatory gift will make the disciplining felt like just a tap on the shoulder and brings his lost children back into the fold.
With the country’s midterm election coming in May, the Filipino people are once again given the chance to choose individuals who will run the government for them. Politicians will be most busy courting the people. The quest for a strong leader is a rarity that’s why we have to grab the opportunity and waste no time electing him or her into office when it comes. Except when the options are limited, we have to choose the best, more deserving ones.
A good leader knows how to handle a crisis even to the point of something that will have caught him off guard. His strong leadership unites a nation and one that settled out differences from all sectors, heals. He is not only intelligent but, most importantly, as patriotic as he is God-fearing. His decision making ability for any situation could save lives instead of losing them. He is, above all, a man of positive actions. The present administration’s handling of the Sabah crisis somehow frustrates me. The indifference, arrogance, and lack of initiative in dealing with the Sabah standoff are only indicative of a poor leadership this administration has to show. The president of the Republic of the Philippines, being the commander in chief, should have done something so bloodshed could have been prevented in the first place.
Again, this country of ours needs a good, strong leader, not weak, pretentious leadership. If your actions inspire others to dream more, to quote from John Quincy Adams, learn more, do more and become more, you are a leader. But could we see these qualities in our politicians running for different positions in our government?
Saturday, February 23, 2013
Malaysia must abide with historical truth and give Sabah back to its true owner
Filipino Muslim gunmen of about 400 with about 200 of them heavily armed infiltrating the Sabah state in Malaysia a little over a week ago and identifying themselves as the Royal Sulu Sultanate Army lead by one of the heirs of the Sultanate of Sulu Sultan Raja Muda Agbimuddin Kiram might be a case, for the now Islamic country and former British colony, of taking a dose of its own medicine. Malaysia has been a major supporter of a Muslim rebellion in the southern Philippine island of Mindanao as its way of weakening the Philippine republic as well as a diversionary tactics to keep the Philippine government’s focus away from claiming Sabah back. It must be known, for those who still don’t know the real score why that Northern portion of Borneo (called Sabah) once owned by the Sultanate of Sulu has now become a part of Malaysia, that the Sultanate of Sulu which is a part of Philippine territory is the true owner of Sabah. Allow me to give you just a brief review on history.
Sabah has been given by the Sultanate of Brunei to the Sultanate of Sulu as a gift for the latter’s military assistance to the former in the year 1703. Several years later it was leased back to the British company based in Brunei by which, as what was agreed upon between them, the company will provide arms to the Sultan to repulse the Spaniards in the Philippines and an annual rental of 5,000 Malaysian ringgits based on the Mexican peso value at that time or its equivalent in gold. Malaysia has continued the rental payment up to the present time. It was the British who, upon granting Malaysia its independence in 1963 opted Sabah to form the new Malayan state by which to also include Singapore, Malayan peninsula, and Sarawak.
It was not until the presidency of Philippine president Diosdado Macapagal in the year 1962 that the Sabah claim by the Philippines has been formalized based on the Sultanate of Sulu heirs’ claim on the said territory. The late and only Philippine president who later on became a dictator Ferdinand Marcos almost made it to take Sabah back from the Malaysians by force. He trained young Muslim recruits from Mindanao secretly in the island of Corregidor as part of the force that will invade Sabah. But when the said operation has been leaked out to the media, all the young trainees were eliminated except for one that survived by swimming across the sea towards the mainland Luzon. Upon learning about the aborted mission by the Philippine government, Malaysia somehow retaliated by giving support to the rising number of Muslim rebels from Mindanao who were so much angered by the massacre of their brothers in Corregidor island.
These heirs of the Sultanate of Sulu have earlier announced that they will not leave the area and will fight to the death whenever necessary and to stay in the land they have called their own. Malaysian troops as well will only be following orders from their boss and is every now and then waiting for the go signal. The Philippine government lead by the commander in chief himself, Philippine president Benigno Aquino III must act and carefully address for the peaceful resolution of the said stand-off as soon as possible to avoid bloodshed. He must have the initiative to draw ignorance out of the picture while, at the same time, bringing the issue into the light of historical truth and stand by it.
Saturday, February 9, 2013
It’s not how much money we have but how much we enjoy by giving what we have
Money can do many things for you, but not everything. It can't even buy you happiness (Pleasure? Perhaps, there are lots of them for you to choose from depending on your taste). I'm not going to be one of those pretentious people who should sound as if money is not at all that needed, but what I'm trying to convey here is that money should not be treated as though it was the only important thing or as something by which you can tread on other people. I heard about people who change for the worse and because of money and they're not even that wealthy as they should suppose after all. Below is a short essay I have produced by combining the quotes of Henry Ford, Benjamin Franklin, Mahatma Gandhi, Epictitus, Aristotle Onasis, Sophocles, Lucretius, and Alan Watts (with their own views on wealth, money, and happiness).
A business that makes nothing but money is a poor business --(Henry Ford). Money has never made man happy, nor will it, there is nothing in its nature to produce happiness. The more of it one has the more one wants --(Benjamin Franklin). It is health that is real wealth and not pieces of gold and silver --(Mahatma Gandhi).
He that is of the opinion money will do everything may well be suspected of doing everything for money --(Benjamin Franklin). After a certain point, money is meaningless. It ceases to be the goal. The game is what counts. --(Aristotle Onassis). Be careful to leave your sons well instructed rather than rich, for the hopes of the instructed are better than the wealth of the ignorant. --(Epictetus). Wisdom outweighs any wealth --(Sophocles).
The reason we have poverty is that we have no imagination. There are a great many people accumulating what they think is vast wealth, but it's only money... they don't know how to enjoy it, because they have no imagination. --(Alan Watts). Wealth consists not in having great possessions, but in having few wants. --(Epictetus). The greatest wealth is to live content with little, for there is never want where the mind is satisfied --(Lucretius).
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
Why video games can do more harm than good for your kids?
The people who will say that video games could not do harm to their children is to indeed admit, in a surreal way, that they are because video games can actually be bad for your kids. Addictive computer or video games can harm your children’s mental development. Of course, there are a few positive effects of playing video games but the damage they may have caused, to some degree, could be most alarming. Video game playing, I mean excessive video game playing to be exact, socially isolate your kids. Not only that, once your kid gets addicted to it, the impact out of such an obsession could affect their thought span, academic skills, and perception of the real world. In other words, it will confuse reality and fantasy.
In an article of The Telegraph dated 14 October 2011, Science Correspondent Nick Collins quoted about what Baroness Greenfield, the former director of the Royal Institution, have explained about how computer or video games can literally “blow the mind” by temporarily or permanently deactivating certain nerve connections in the brain.
Video games can only make your kids do what the game lets them do which is to limit the brain’s ability to learn something new by getting stuck in that same sphere of activity compared when they are in the outside real world playing, interacting, and enjoying where they can do what they want to do and because, unlike in video games, their actions and thoughts are not limited there’s a great potential for learning new and different things all at once. In a study conducted by the Minneapolis-based National Institute for Media and Family, have found out that, aside from the fact that video games could be addictive for kids, the kids’ addiction to these video games could increase their depression and anxiety levels. Health problems such as obesity, video-induced seizures, and postural, muscular, and skeletal disorders could result from too much playing of video games over a long period of time.
I’m not totally against video games. What I’m trying to suggest is, for the parents who have kids that play video games, for them to monitor what video games their children are playing and to set time limits. Discipline your kids whenever necessary and make sure to make them understand why you are doing that so but in the right manner; kids who are aggressive or spoiled are simply just a product of poor or dysfunctional parenting. Encourage or convince your kids to try doing other things like interacting with other kids, playing sports, and many more. The natural world is, still and always, the best way to learn something from for the best.
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Tips for a healthy, safe and fun active outdoor vacation
by ARA
May 24, 2012 | 49298 views | 0 0 comments | 519 519 recommendations | email to a friend | print
Tips for a healthy, safe and fun active outdoor vacation
(ARA) - Mom zip-lining, Dad mountain biking, a sibling hike at sunrise - for many travelers, a vacation isn't just for relaxation, it's the perfect opportunity for adventure in the great outdoors. The summer travel season is ideal for camping, hiking and biking - great travel activities for couples and families alike. With a little pre-travel planning, you can help ensure that the elements and the unforeseen of outdoor travel don't derail your good time.
The easiest way to avoid any mishaps is to adequately prepare before your trip. Follow these tips for a healthy, safe and enjoyable outdoor vacation:
Pack the right clothing
Mother Nature is a fickle beast - meaning that even during warm seasons, weather can be unpredictable and temperatures can plummet after nightfall. Packing clothes that can be layered is wise so you can add on or remove as necessary. Because you'll be active, a good pair of supportive shoes is crucial as well as several pairs of light socks to keep feet dry and blister-free. If rain might be an issue, pack rain gear, or at the very least, an emergency poncho. When deciding what to wear for your outdoor adventure, plan for comfort rather than fashion - you'll be sorry at the end of your half-day horseback ride if you wear shorts and flip-flops.
Remember sun protection
When spending long hours outdoors, the sun can be intense, especially if you're doing an activity on the water or away from shade. Always pack plenty of sun block at SPF 30 or higher - remember to spread all over your body including often-forgotten areas like feet, ears, hands and knees. Make sure to pack sunglasses for the whole family to protect the eyes and face. It's wise also to bring hats and light, cotton long-sleeve shirts too, which can provide additional protection from the sun and from bug bites.
Buy travel assistance
Whether you are traveling 50 miles or 5,000, both domestic and international travelers should get emergency medical and travel assistance from a company like On Call International. Membership includes unlimited coverage any day at any time for emergency medical evacuations to the hospital of your choice, expert medical monitoring, worldwide medical referrals and family travel costs related to the injury/sickness. With a deluxe travel assistance membership you get additional benefits such as protection and assistance during natural disasters and civil unrest, and even assistance with the care and return of your pet.
Be water wise
Your body always needs adequate hydration, but when you're doing physical activities outdoors, it's even more important to have a plentiful supply of water. Make sure that wherever you are going has a source of safe drinking water. Even if the hike you planned includes a rest stop where a drinking fountain is located, it's still wise to bring a water bottle because you never know when a fountain might be broken or unavailable. Avoid water from lakes or streams - no matter how clean and pure it looks, it likely contains water-borne parasites and micro-organisms that can make you ill. If necessary, use a chemical treatment to purify water.
Make a plan for the unexpected
Whether you're taking a causal hike or trying a new activity like rock climbing or kayaking, it's smart to bring a companion. In case of an emergency, you don't want to be alone. If you'll be out for a while, pack a portable first-aid kit for minor injuries. Talk with your travel companions ahead of time and develop an emergency plan should someone get lost or a medical emergency occurs. On hikes or during camping trips to more remote locations, parents often give children whistles to blow in case they become lost.
A little planning and some smart thinking means adventure travel outdoors can be safe and full of memory-making potential. Consider these tips and you'll be well on your way to having a great vacation.
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100 “greatest” guitarists of all time
1. Jimi Hendrix
2. Duane Allman of the Allman Brothers Band
3. B.B. King
4. Eric Clapton
5. Robert Johnson
6. Chuck Berry
7. Stevie Ray Vaughan
8. Ry Cooder
9. Jimmy Page of Led Zeppelin ["of Led Zeppelin"?! duh]
10. Keith Richards of the Rolling Stones [double duh]
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1,753 Responses to 100 “greatest” guitarists of all time
1. rib says:
I’m sorry, I forgot Elmore James, place him where you would like. Also, to those who read some guitar rag or another and don’t knoweth of what floweth from their holes, please, verbally masturbate elsewhere…you suck at the axe and always will…peace
2. Phillip says:
Daniel Johnston is the best guitar player alive. Those who think differently suck even harder at the axe and always will. Peace!
3. Jody says:
Comments are closed on this post until further notice. Future comments will be moderated soon.
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« House prices: fundamentals do matter | Main | India's miracle »
Thursday, August 02, 2007
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Listed below are links to weblogs that reference India's growing pains:
» India's miracle from New Economist
India's miracle is the subject of a special issue of the british weekly New Statesman. I have already posted on one article, about the country's economic growing pains. But there are five other articles worth mentioning: * Ramachandra Guha kicks off th... [Read More]
Why this paradox? As an insider I see the false belief among politicians,general public and the academicians that IT sector alone is the true symbol of development.
What kind of labour gets employment in the IT sector? Urban rich and the middle-class benefit out of IT boom; majority are working as IT "coolies".
To remove poverty, a return to Nehruvian industrialisation combined with Nurksian balanced growth strategy are urgently needed.Gandhian need and want minimisation are also essential.
Troy Aikman
Too late, it's just too late for India to get industrialized, your giant neighbor, China, is absorbing every single manufacturing job from the west. India just simply cannot compete with China, due to poor education and infrastructure
Too late, folks, too late
Arthur Eckart
The U.S., and other countries, are fortunate there are Indian immigrants (along with Chinese and other Asians):
"About 64% of Indian Americans have attained a Bachelor's degree or more.[5](compared to 28% nationally). Almost 40% of all Indians have a master’s doctorate or other professional degree...Indian Americans have the highest median income of any national origin group in the United States and Merrill Lynch recently revealed that there are nearly 200,000 Indian American millionaires... one-third of the engineers in Silicon Valley are of Indian descent, while 7% of valley high-tech firms are led by Indian CEOs. (Source: Silicon India Readership Survey) In 2002, there were over 223,000 Asian Indian-owned firms in the U.S., employing more than 610,000 workers, and generating more than $88 billion in revenue.[7]"
Troy Aikman
Arthur, your data are nothing but propaganda pushed by some Indian supremacists, remember the following widely cited data?
38% of doctors in USA are Indians.
12% scientists in USA are Indians.
36% of NASA scientists are Indians.
34% of Microsoft employees are Indians.
28% of IBM employees are Indians.
17% of INTEL scientists are Indians.
13% of XEROX employees are Indians.
You can find this BS everywhere on the internet, often written by a "proud indian".. Here is one http://www.southasiabiz.com/2006/08/iproud_to_be_an_indian_15_amaz.html
It turns out these data are just bullshit. 36% of NASA scientists are Indian, are you freaking kidding me? Bill Gates personally rebuffed the 34% claim.
Stop the propaganda, and india is the biggest victim of brain drain, there is really nothing to be proud of sending your best to the west.
Troy Aikman 6.29 AM,
Poor infrastructure I agree, but not poor education.
10.49 AM,
We are not sending our best to the west...we spend huge amounts on their education here but they migrate and desert us due to globalisation trends and the benefits given to the non-resident Indians.I propose an NRI tax and boosting up of top-level salary in India side by side to control out migration.
Troy Aikman
what's the literacy rate in India?
Arthur Eckart
Troy, presenting mixed data from a less credible source to prove other data are false doesn't make sense. U.S. census data, which is real data, show that 77% of Indians who worked at Silicon Valley's high-tech firms in 1990 had a Bachelor's degree or higher compared to 40% for Chinese and 18% for Whites. 55% of Indians had a master's degree or higher (see first link table 2.4). There are many "Silicon Valleys" throughout the U.S. and the percentages may be similar or higher today.
Troy Aikman,
India is a federal country.Use disaggregated data on literacy.Some states like the south western state of Kerala has 100% literacy including female literacy comparable to developed western countries.
First, according to the wikipedia page, Kerala has a literacy rate of 91%, not 100%.
Second, what's your point? I am pretty sure there are have high literacy rate regions in Bangladesh as well. An overall literacy rate of 60% shows the sorry state of Indian education.
Arthur Eckart
I made an error above. 1990 Census data for Bachelor's degree or higher in Silicon Valley high tech jobs were 49% for White, 71% for Chinese, and 77% for Indians. Master's degree or higher were 18% for White, 40% for Chinese, and 55% for Indians.
Arthur, I have no problem with your data on Silicon Valley, it's the Silicon Valley for Krishna's sake. It does not reflect the current state of Indian education, Indians in the SV are the cream of the crop of 1 billion people. Of course the majority of them have post-graduate degrees.
If this is indeed true, dont you think the number of Indian CEOs is improportionally small? Arthur, I work for a Fortune 500 high tech company and around 10% of the research scientists are of Indian origin. Not bad, but still far from Indian dominance or even 30%. Reading all those "proud Indian's" posts, I'm just fed up with this India shining, India rising, India is the next superpower BS.
Yes, I was fooled by those "facts" too
TA 1.16 AM,
I mainly meant urban literacy.Try:
Arthur Eckart
TD, clearly some of the statistics in Southasiabiz are ridiculous. However, the Wikipedia statistics could be true. Only 1% of the U.S. population is Indian-American. A few years ago, the quota of HB1 Visas (for high-skilled workers) was raised and there's a large quota for millionaires. So, it's possible 64% of Indian-Americans have a Bachelor's degree or higher and 40% have a master's degree or higher (i.e. over 21 years of age). Also, there may be 200,000 Indian-American millionaires, which is roughly 7% of the Indian-American population (of any age). Moreover, it could be true one-third of Silicon Valley engineers are Indian descent, although 7% of valley high-tech firms are led by Indian CEOs, since not all CEOs are engineers (many are accountants, economists, biologists, etc.) and most Indian-American high-tech workers may be engineers. Initially, most Cuban-Americans were affluent and recently many high-skilled and rich Venezuelens moved to the U.S. (because of Hugo Chavez). I suspect, Chinese, who moved to the U.S. in recent years, are also more highly educated or affluent than Americans in general, etc. U.S. high-tech jobs are created faster than Americans can acquire skills. So, high-skilled foreigners are needed. I agree, Indian education standards are lower, although India's few top schools are at the highest world quality. The link below from an expert believes it's more of a "brain circulation" than a "brain drain," since "there's a healthy flow of financial and intellectual capital between California, Taiwan, and India."
It's H1B visa, and if you followed the recent H1B visa scandal, you would know that a lot of those Indian H1B visa holders are not paid that handsomely
You can dig a lot of news about this H1b scam if you are willing to, it's quite disturbing. Those Indian outsourcers are abusing the H1B system by sending cheap programmers from India. They are neither high skilled nor well paid. Again, let's not spread the false "facts" about how rich, how well educated and how powerful those Indians are. They are simply not. I am not going to rebuff every claim by you. You cannot convince anyone by arguing "it's possible", "it might be true"... It might be true that I'm Bill Gates.
people do not lose big picture..
india is 1.1 bil,that is ~20% of the world pop lives in india so you expect some tiny number of folks to do well (silicon valley/IT etc)
india adds 1 australia every year..80 % lives on less than $2/day. If a true democracy amongst so called majority literate india existed, this state of affair would invite societal revolution long back. Try to engage in doing business in india, you will flee , my friend.
This garbage of globalization induced higher GDP idea was mooted by western industry (eg. the buffoons in goldman sachs after .com collapse) and then capitalism's drive to make better profit sped up ( and hence the current gilded age for the top 0.1% in western world while a churn amidst people due to housing bust in US now (but soon to spread to bloody bubble lands of UK/ireland/Spain etc)..the ultra loose monetary policy also went hand-in-hand along w/ globalization CRAP.
Early 20th century disruptions of this sort led to world wars. Indians should not be fooled by 3yrs of unusual growth due to rampant liquidity and credit bubble despite which we have grinding poverty amongst cell-phone toting unwashed masses of india..
What a joke
And the bigger joke is that buffoons of BEAR STEARNS wish to be bailed out by govt's tax money. What kinda of capitalism is this???
Arthur Eckart
TA, right, it's H1B Visa. I'm not surprised there's some misuse, which seems to be small, given demand for visas exceeds supply. What I meant was the Wikipedia statistics are more feasible than some of the Southasiabiz statistics. Of course, if you had the time, Census data may prove or disprove the statistics. Andiron, I wouldn't say people working in Wall Street investment banks, money center banks, brokerage houses, etc. (which make large profits) are buffoons. Many of them graduated from top schools, including Indian-Americans. If Third World countries want to overproduce by buying dollars and selling their currencies, then it's appropriate for the U.S. to increase its money supply to at least partially offset U.S. underproduction (i.e. close the output gap), which has caused those Third World countries to overproduce even more. It's not a U.S. economic problem.
Arthur Eckart
Also, I may add, mutual funds, pension funds, insurance firms, etc. have been propping-up U.S. financial markets (following New York institutions) to raise GDP, which was successful. While the U.S. stock market rose from mid-2006 to mid-2007, U.S. real GDP rose from less than 1% in Q1 2007 to about 3 1/2% in Q2 2007 (the stock market correction began right after second quarter GDP was announced, although inflation was much lower than expected, the U.S. trade deficit remained near the all-time high, and the U.S. budget deficit was estimated at only $150 billion in 2007). The New York Fed has mitigated some of the hedge fund losses by exchanging dollars for mortgage-backed securites, which increased demand deposits (through high-powered money or the money multiplier, since the effective Fed Funds Rate rose from 5 1/4% to 6% on a "credit crunch"). So, it seems, Goldman Sachs, Bear Stearns, etc. were somewhat rewarded, e.g. through Citigroup and Chase (i.e. money center banks). Obviously, the Fed and New York financial institutions are working together for the benefit of the country (similar to JP Morgan before the Fed) to maintain sustainable economic growth.
Arthur Eckart
Frank, most people don't realize the extent of poverty in China, India, and many other developing countries. India has produced a $2,500 car recently, the Tata Nano. Currently, only 7 out of 1,000 Indians own a car. Also:
"China has 23% of the world's people on 7% of the world's arable land. China is down to 1/4 of an acre of arable land per person. That is very close to the limit of how much land is needed to grow crops to feed a person. You can't get much less than that without starving. China must import a billion tons of food annually to feed its population. That's why China has a crisis driven policy to limit their population - a policy of "one is best, at most two, never a third" and "later, longer, fewer", promoting late marriages, long intervals between births, and two child families. With these measures, China's total fertility rate is 1.8, down from 4.8 in 1970. Even with the lower birthrate, as the large group of young people entering reproductive age, China will add another 1/2 billion people by 2020."
Pollution, urban sprawl, overgrazing of livestock, overcultivation, improper irrigation techniques, etc. have resulted in "one-sixth of China’s total arable lands are polluted by heavy metals, and more than 40 percent are degenerated due to erosion and desertification." Also, about 50% of China's labor force works in agriculture (compared to less than 3% in the U.S.).
Arthur Eckart
Below is a related article about China's food prices:
China Makes New Anti-Inflation Move
Monday January 14, 2008 1:28 am ET
BEIJING (AP) -- China's cabinet on Monday sharply increased penalties for price-fixing, expanding an anti-inflation campaign that has failed to cool a surge in politically sensitive food costs.
Food costs soared by 18.2 percent in November, pushing the overall monthly inflation rate to 6.9 percent, its highest level in 11 years.
The surge in food prices has been especially painful for China's poor majority, who spend up to half their incomes on food.
Suppliers of meat, eggs and other food have been ordered to report price increases over 5 percent to the government.
Premier Wen Jiabao warned last week that with global prices for crude oil, grain and other commodities rising, pressure for Chinese prices to rise "is still great."
Local authorities have been ordered to pay subsidies to the poor to cushion the blow of higher food costs.
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Its a good article written by Randeep Ramesh...............
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Inspired Azarenka reaches fourth round
World number one Victoria Azarenka laid down a marker with a 6-0 6-1 trouncing of Zheng Jie to reach the fourth round of the US Open.
There have been plenty of one-sided matches involving the top seeds this week, but this was different because Zheng is ranked 28th in the world and a tough competitor.
Azarenka began the year with a 26-match winning streak, which included her first grand slam title at the Australian Open, and looked back to that form here.
The Belarusian raced through the first set in only 25 minutes for the loss of just seven points, and it was not until the fourth game of the second set that Zheng got on the board.
The crowd gave the Chinese player a huge cheer but that was to be the only consolation for Zheng, who lasted only 59 minutes in total.
Azarenka, who next plays Georgia's Anna Tatishvili, was playing her first night-session match and credited the New York fans for her sparkling performance.
She said: "I think you guys inspired me to play my best tennis. It's an incredible atmosphere and energy.
"I always wanted to play here, I've watched on TV but it felt really different. It was amazing."
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Government Contract Law Lawyers In Cape Elizabeth Maine
Cape Elizabeth is a town in Cumberland County, Maine, United States, and is the state's most affluent municipality (per household median income) based on Census 2000 data. The population was 9,068 at the 2000 census. A residential and resort area situated on the southern shore of Casco Bay just south of Portland, Maine, Cape Elizabeth is home to Crescent Beach State Park and Two Lights State Park. Cape Elizabeth is the location of the Beach to Beacon 10-kilometer road race that starts at Crescent Beach State Park (the "beach") and ends at Portland Head Light (the "beacon"). This road race attracts world-renowned runners and was founded by 1984 Olympics marathon gold medalist Joan Benoit Samuelson who grew up in Cape Elizabeth. Cape Elizabeth is part of the Portland–South Portland–Biddeford, Maine Metropolitan Statistical Area.
What is government contract law?
Answers to government contract law issues in Maine
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The Tax History Conservatives Want Us to Forget
by: David Sirota
Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 15:30
Grover Norquist is regularly billed as one of the leading intellectual lights of the conservative movement - and I think you will agree that the arguments he made in a debate with me over taxes this morning on CNBC highlight not merely the shocking intellectual bankruptcy of the movement he leads, but just how out of touch Republicans in Washington really are.
The debate revolved around President-elect Obama's potential plans to put off raising taxes on the very wealthy. Norquist begins the debate with the claim - I kid you not - that "the economy is in the present state because when the Democrats took the House and Senate in 2006 you knew those tax increases were going to come in 2010." He insisted that, "The stock market began to collapse as soon as you recognize that those old tax rates were coming back." Yes, because under "those old tax rates" - ie. Clinton-era tax rates - the economy was so much worse than it is today.
David Sirota :: The Tax History Conservatives Want Us to Forget
As you'll see, the CNBC reporters start laughing at Norquist, having trouble taking him seriously. And I must say, I really wasn't sure he was being serious - but, of course, he was. I went on to make the point that I've often made in the past - the point that conservatives simply want everyone to forget: Namely, that President Clinton faced down a recession in 1993 by raising taxes on the wealthy in order to finance an economic stimulus package, and the economy subsequently boomed.
That simple, undeniable bit of history undermines the entire structure of conservatives claim that raising taxes on the super-rich will hurt the economy. And as you'll see from Norquist's response, they simply cannot deal with that truth. Indeed, Norquist actually goes all the way back to the 1920s as his example that raising taxes on the wealthy impedes economic growth - somehow ignoring the history from 15 years ago. He then goes on to claim with a straight face that Franklin Roosevelt created the Great Depression (this, along with the "center-right nation" propaganda, seems to be the right's new talking point).
The question now is whether the Obama administration buys into Norquist's fact-free nonsense, or whether it musters the same courage President Clinton mustered in prudently raising taxes on the super-rich to responsibly finance an economic stimulus package. Sure, temporary deficits are acceptable right now - there's no arguing that. But doing what's necessary to minimize those deficits is also important.
In terms of policy, if, as Congressional Quarterly reports, Obama wants to enforce budget discipline on a necessarily large economic stimulus package, it will require generating additional revenue from the wealthy. In terms of raw politics, if Clinton's 43 percent of the vote gave him enough political capital to come into office during an economic downturn and do that, I'd say Obama and his 53 percent gives him enough political capital to do the same today. And I would argue that if Obama backs off his promise to raise taxes on the wealthy, he will effectively validate the false conservative frame that claims tax increases on the wealthy endangers an economy.
While I certainly agree with the CNBC reporter that the 2008 is different than the 1990s, it isn't different when it comes to taxes - we have very recent history that proves raising taxes on the wealthy in order to raise revenues for economic stimulus, if done prudently, helps an economy recover. That is the argument that nobody during this debate was able to undermine - and it is the argument conservatives fear most, because they know it is accurate.
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You Go David!!! (4.00 / 5)
You sent Grover back to Sesame Street. Your stock went up 1000%. Great point, and you stuck to it, textbook debating.
Next time you see CF you should take her to lunch, she was good, too.
Questions: (0.00 / 0)
Should Obama let the tax cut lapse, or spend political capital pushing for a vote on early termination of the tax cut? One of my memories of the '93 vote was the Republican takeover of Congress the next year. Letting the tax cut lapse is politically safer, but can we wait that extra year? Is it better to let it lapse later so that the grown ups stay in charge and prevent a devastating tax cut in 4 years under President Palin and Senate leader McConnell?
John McCain won't insure children
There Is No Evidence That The Tax Cut Is Why The GOP Took Over (4.00 / 1)
I'm sure it was a factor in a few races. But as Mike Lux pointed out a while back, the main reason we lost in 1994 was because we didn't do enough to bring out our base. And as I pointed out, a close second was the Perot vote, which was more interested in blancing the budget than it was in lowering taxes.
So, beware of false "pragmatism". Check your facts and figures first.
[ Parent ]
Mostly, I think that '94 was due to (0.00 / 0)
Clinton's early political ineptness (e.g. poorly handling gays in the military, universal health insurance, vetting of political appointees, relations with the Dem-controlled congress, media relations, etc.), along with Dems' lack of cohesion and a sense that they didn't stand for anything, and GOP sharks smelling blood in the water and exploiting Clinton and the Dem's weakness fully. Gingrich, Armey & Co. basically outplayed Clinton, Foley & Co.
As in '68, '80 and '00, there was no real underlying substance to the Repub takeovers, but rather a shrewd and cynical exploitation of exigent political realities to make the more effective sales pitch. Repubs haven't been serious about policy, in terms of the national rather than narrow interests, since the 50's. Since then, it's been largely and increasingly about messaging, grass-roots organizing, and dirty tricks. Even Nixon, the last Repub president with some decent policies, couldn't help putting politics way ahead of policy.
It only works when Dems lose focus and fail to stand and fight for anything. Which, sadly, has been often. Hopefully, that will no longer be the case.
[ Parent ]
Wow he really is out to lunch. (0.00 / 0)
Stuck in a time warp, fighting the last war (last two wars actually) and denying the reality around him. It was interesting to see Chrystia Freeland nodding her head emphatically when you called him out for making a dated political argument at the end there.
speaking truth to idiocy (0.00 / 0)
por fin!
1993 Clinton stimulus package (4.00 / 1)
You stated that "President Clinton faced down a recession in 1993 by raising taxes on the wealthy in order to finance an economic stimulus package, and the economy subsequently boomed." My memory is that the primary focus of the 1993 budget bill that included the tax increase was basically deficit reduction -- Clinton wanted to rein in the budget deficits he had inherited from Bush on the theory that public borrowing to finance deficit spending had made borrowing by the private sector more expensive (and had resulted in economic stagnation). If I remember correctly, Clinton's stimulus package was ultimately blocked by Republicans in the Senate, and the total value of that proposed package was only around $16 billion. Clinton may have linked financing his stimulus package to a budget bill aimed at deficit reduction, but I don't believe the stimulus package was ever enacted.
I remember how Republicans argued at the time that we simply could not afford that package, and now 100x, 200x of that amount is given away to banks in the blink of an eye...
Bush recession I (4.00 / 3)
Just once I'd like to have Pete Wilson's idiot utility deregulation and the consequent looting of California by Enron get the condmnation it deserves.
The huge economic controversy of my adolescence was the right wingers constantly bashing LBJ for not raising taxes immediately during the Vietnam war. They attributed every drop of inflation for at least 20 years to that.
Bravissimo, David! (0.00 / 0)
I swear, I never know if it's polite for folks to interrupt each other during these talking-head debates, but that seems to be the only thing that works in such a constricted time frame.
Strongly agree (0.00 / 0)
The tax plan Obama laid out should be followed.
Also, as dissimilar as 2008 is to 1993, its obvious even less like the late 1920s.
Saxby Chambliss
grover, about that bathtub (0.00 / 0)
rather then drowning the govt how about you drown yourself in that bathtub, the country will be better off and you won't have to look so foolish after making another one of your idiotic comments, oh, and while i'm at it, get a real job.
The GOP is furiously throwing memes against the wall to see what sticks (0.00 / 0)
Lacking the ability, discipline or integrity to try to formulate serious policy proposals, they're basically throwing together ad hoc memes and talking points and tossing them out at a furious pace in the hopes that some might stick. This is just the latest one, but there have been so many these past few months:
--ACORN, the CRA, shiftless blacks and Dems caused the financial meltdown
--Massive voter fraud, also caused by ACORN (and Obama)
--Obama's a socialist Marxist communist radical terrorist secret Muslim
--FDR caused, or at least didn't end, the great depression
--Drilling NOW is the solution to our energy problems
--It's a center-right nation
--Joetheplummer and Sarah Palin are the real America
Um, yeah. But they'll keep at it, as it's all that they've got. Always was. Oh, plus the ratfucking.
The rich don't spend. (4.00 / 1)
Taxing the rich as a means to economic stimulus is effective because it puts more money into circulation than would otherwise be there. Yes, the rich have the capacity to invest, but they're not going to do so during a recession, particularly not one that is hinging on becommming a depression.
Even if you cut taxes on the rich right now, they'll just soak it up and save it. Actually, in general I think a tax cut right now is a bad idea in that respect. Infrastructure spending is the way to go. Even the middle class will use any tax cut to pay down debt/save...not bad, but not effective stimulus either.
Rather than delaying the tax increase on the rich, Obama should be pondering delaying the middle class tax cut.
on top of that (0.00 / 0)
when they do invest, they don't invest in things that hire a lot of people. People are expenses.
They like pure financial instruments, which have (HAD) a higher return than actually producing things or providing services.
[ Parent ]
Taxes on the rich (4.00 / 1)
Certainly it is correct that raising taxes is good, but let's not go overboard on some nemes. In particular, Clinton's tax increase, while there, was meagre compared to that of Wilson, FDR, Truman, and even Eisenhower-those people had 75% top rates and more, for God's sakes. If Clinton had wanted to balance the budget he should have raised taxes and cut defense spending much more than he did. Not that I am favoring such a policy, as a Keynesian first, last, and all the time, but the idea of Clinton restoring fiscal stability to this country is largely a myth. Also, the debacle of 1994 was because: Clinton was too conservative, not proposing a single universal social service, excepting health insurance which he (not his wife) proceeded to botch up, not proposing any measures to fight big business and the Overclass or to help the working person, unions, labor, etc., and NAFTA and sundry other "economically liberal" acts; and the Democrats never carried out the promise of the Progressive era and the Roosevelt-Truman period. They never carried out anti-business and pro-labor acts, never even proposing universal social services, never doing anything truly radical to solve the nation's great problems. That goes for the 60's and 70's as well-Kennedy and Johnson never did anything as radical as the early 20th century presidents did, with the exception of civil rights, which was increasingly used as a substitute for doing anything else. Please someone just look at the Great Society, and ponder-it really was not as radical as the New Deal was, and was inadequate for the growing problems of our nation, things began getting out of hand right then. And so, after 30-40 years of waiting for the Democrats and othe non-Republicans to do something, the American people, in 1994, just gave up.
One last matter: the middle class tax probably should be delayed, if not reconsidered entirely. We should help the great middle income groups in our society-that includes the workers and farmers-and also the poor, by spending money on them, through a universal welfare state. The middle class does not hate taxes, it merely wants some of the money to be spent upon them.
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A Down-Home Kind of Greatness
Today we take a break from our usual grumblings about politics, economics, and the gradual decline of civilization to note the passing of one of the great men of American culture. Earl Scruggs died Wednesday at the age of 88, and the nation is vastly poorer for the loss.
Scruggs wouldn’t have minded a bit that most of the obituaries will describe him as a banjo player, but anyone who ever heard him play that much-maligned instrument knows that he was much more than just another picker. He was a extraordinary virtuoso who revolutionized the way his instrument is played, became a key figure in the development of an important American musical genre in the process, and influenced musicians in fields ranging from country to rock ‘n’ roll to jazz. Just as important, he was widely respected for his character, helped bridge the musical generation gap of the late ‘60s and early ‘70s, and stood as an example of the democratic greatness of American music.
Born to a poor but loving family of talented musicians in the hills of North Carolina, Scruggs was a child prodigy who began to develop his own three-fingered technique for playing the five-string banjo by the age of 4. Passionate about the music, and free of the modern distractions that have doubtless derailed many young talents in a more affluent age, Scruggs was single-mindedly devoted to music and given to a legendarily rigorous practice regimen. By his teens he was ready to change the course of American music history, although he was probably only hoping to make a living.
He first came to prominence by joining Bill Monroe’s Bluegrass Boys, a crack outfit that was beginning to attract attention with an innovative style of traditional rural music. Scruggs replaced the beloved David “Stringbean” Akeman, a capable banjoist of the old claw-hammer school whose main role in band was to provide cornball comedy between songs, and the change transformed the band. Although his shy, taciturn, and rigidly dignified personality made him ill-suited to the comedian’s role, Scruggs had a fast, flowing, propulsive style of playing — known to fans everywhere as “the roll” — that sped the band into a brand new style of music that became known as bluegrass.
Having played the pivotal role in creating bluegrass, Scruggs joined forces with fellow Bluegrass Boy Lester Flatt to do more than any other musicians to popularize it. The pair and their outstanding band introduced the music to the folk-crazed college students of the early ‘60s at numerous festivals, serenaded an audience of millions every week with their “Beverly Hillbillies,” and gave millions of others their very first taste of bluegrass by providing the soundtrack for “Bonnie and Clyde” with their signature tune, “Foggy Mountain Breakdown.”
Bill Monroe had been famously hostile to the hippies who were already taking over his musical creation by the late ‘60s, but the easy-going open-minded Scruggs had a more accepting attitude than his old boss. When he formed the Earl Scruggs Revue, featuring his long-haired sons, both fine musicians in their own rights, Scruggs added songs by Bob Dylan and The Byrds to his repertoire and welcomed the tie-dyed set to his shows. We had the privilege of hearing Scruggs play at the old Henry Levitt Arena in Wichita on a bill with the Nitty Gritty Dirt Band, Dave Bromberg, and a little-known comedian named Steve Martin back in the early ‘70s, and we vividly recall that everyone in attendance seemed to agree that the quiet, middle-aged hillbilly in the non-descript suit was by far the hippest cat they’d ever seen.
Scruggs has been a constant musical companion ever since, his finest recordings taking their place of honor our shelf along side those the other truly great musicians of the American tradition. In addition to the hours of happy listening, he also provided us with a cheering reminder that true greatness can come from anywhere, and in any form. Scruggs proved that greatness can be learned through family traditions as well as an academy, that it can be honed out behind the barn as easily as in a classroom, and that it can happen in the Grand Ole Opry as well as the fanciest opera halls.
Rest in peace, Earl, and may your music always roll on.
– Bud Norman
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The Long and Short of Obamacare
Obamacare might yet survive the scrutiny of the Supreme Court, but the consensus of informed opinion seems to be that the oral arguments on its behalf have not gone well. By the end of Wednesday’s session arch-liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg was openly musing about what portions of the law the court might “salvage,” arch-conservative Justice Antonin Scalia retorted that forcing his clerks to rummage through the law’s 2,700 pages in search of something worth salvaging would be a violation of the constitution’s prohibition on cruel and unusual punishment, and the pundits had moved on to talking about the political ramifications of it all.
One view, put forth by various commentators, holds that Obama finds himself in a “lose-lose” situation. The argument is that if the law is struck down Obama will be blamed for spending two years of congressional time and most of his political capital on a bill that proved unconstitutional, and if the law is upheld he’s stuck with a very unpopular policy and a newly re-energized opposition. Another view, put forth by former Clinton advisor and current CNN spinner James Carville, holds that a victory in the case would vindicate Obama but that a defeat “will be the best thing to ever happen to the Democratic Party…” He argues that health care costs are going to continue rise, and that Democrats will be able to blame their opposition if the law isn’t in effect.
The view here is that both arguments have some validity. In the short term Obama is likely to suffer politically regardless of how the court rules, while in the long term whichever side loses the case will ultimately reap a political benefit.
Obamacare’s popularity is such that Obama only mentions it “on occasion,” and not on such occasions as the anniversary of its passage, and it cannot help the president’s popularity to have the bill once again in the headlines. There’s already been a controversy over the law forcing the Catholic Church and other religious institutions to act against their beliefs, and a Congressional Budget Office report saying that the law is far more expensive than promised, so if the court rules that the law is also unconstitutional it will be very difficult for the media cheerleaders to find some good news to cheer about. If the law is upheld, on the other hand, it will serve as a timely reminder of the bill’s existence to the millions of Americans who desire its repeal.
Over time, though, whichever sides loses the court case should be able to gain an advantage.
Carville is quite right that health care costs will rise if the law is struck down, of course, and all the other imperfections of the pre-Obamacare system will also be back in place. There will be no way to positively disprove the claims that have been made for Obamacare, meanwhile, and those claims will grow increasingly extravagant. Within a few years a mythology will become commonplace that Obamacare would have given everyone futuristic medical for free, all dispensed by kindly doctors and comely nurses, and that grandma would still be alive and kicking at age 150 if not for the darned Republicans.
If the courts and the electorate allow the law to go into effect, on the other hand, health care costs will continue to rise and there will be other problems. At worst all of the predictions ventured by the Republicans will continue to come to true, with national bankruptcy at the end, and at the very best it will not be the perfection the Democrats have promised. Nostalgia for the good ol’ days will inevitably result, with all the imperfections of the past forgotten, all the problems of the present very much in mind, and no doubt about who’s to blame for the current system.
The only question, then, is whether the short term stretches into next November.
– Bud Norman
Reductio ad Broccoli
The reviews are in on Tuesday’s oral arguments at the Supreme Court over Obamacare, and the government’s lawyer is being panned by almost all the critics. The typically star-struck Associated Press conceded that “The fate of President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul was cast into deeper jeopardy” by the proceedings. The New Yorker’s Jeffrey Toobin, who can usually be counted on to rave about the president and all his works, called the oral arguments a “train wreck for the Obama administration.” Even the hippies at Mother Jones dubbed it a “disaster.”
In fairness to Solicitor General Donald Virrilli, however, it should be noted that he was working from a bad script. The questions that had Virrilli coughing, stumbling, and stuttering concerned what limits on governmental power would still exist if Obamacare were found constitutional, and it’s not easy to ad lib an answer. We haven’t heard a good one yet from the many politicians, writers, activists, and acquaintances who have given it a shot, and they weren’t being peppered with questions by members of the Supreme Court.
If the government can compel a citizen to purchase health insurance, what can’t it do? At various points in the proceedings Virrilli was asked if the government could also mandate the purchase of cell phones, automobiles, or burial insurance, and on at least three occasions the question of government-mandated broccoli arose. The example of broccoli was apparently intended as a reductio ad absurdum argument, according to press reports, but it doesn’t seem so very far-fetched when one considers the healthy eating fetish of the First Lady or the militant veganism of some people we know.
Virrilli gave the broccoli question a brave effort, answering that the health insurance market and the food market differ in that the local grocery store “is not a market in which you don’t know before you go in what you need, and it is not a market which, if you go in and — and seek to obtain a product of service, you will get it even if you can’t pay for it.” Perhaps the keen legal minds of the Supreme Court will be able to parse that sentence successfully, but most observers sensed that at least several of the Justices were not finding it convincing.
Virrilli was handicapped, perhaps, by an inability to answer honestly. He might well have preferred to answer that yes, the government would be able to mandate the purchase of cell phones, automobiles, burial insurance, broccoli, or anything else it chooses, and what of it? In several private conversations we have heard people state frankly that they see no reason the constitution should restrain the president — the current president, at least — from doing anything he might want to do, and while the argument is frightening and ridiculous at least they weren’t coughing, stumbling, and stuttering when they said it.
Such frankness doesn’t play well with the mass audience, however, and thus poor Virrilli is left groping for other arguments. This is a difficulty not just for Obamacare but for the entire liberal project, whose advocates know that it wouldn’t do to come right out and say that they know best and should therefore have all the power, at least not in front of the yokels, and then head down the most circuitous rhetorical trails in search of a more palatable way of putting.
Obamacare might yet survive the challenges in the court, but it seems to have already lost the argument in the court of public opinion, and Tuesday’s proceedings won’t likely change many minds.
– Bud Norman
Sex Strike in Kansas
One of those pesky e-mails recently brought us on a rare visit to our Facebook page, where we noticed a brief announcement that a sex strike has been scheduled in Kansas.
The message did not make clear who was organizing the strike, but it did explain that it was “in response to Kansas Governor Sam Brownback’s proposal that doctors be allowed to lie to pregnant women about potentially life-threatening complications.” We took this to be a reference to a bill Brownback has proposed which would require women to undergo an ultrasound before receiving an abortion, and we assume that the potentially life-threatening complication is childbirth, but the note did not explain how that bill would allow doctors to lie to pregnant women, so it might well be referring to some other dastardly scheme that Brownback has devised. Perhaps there’s an “Allowing Doctors to Lie to Pregnant Women” bill out there that has somehow escaped the attention of the state press.
Of greater interest than the bill, however, is the unusual tactic being deployed against it. The idea of a sex strike dates back at least as far as 411 B.C., when Aristophanes penned “Lysistrata,” a rather bawdy comedy about the women of Athens withholding sex until the men stop waging war, but it’s unclear how such a plan might be applied to abortion politics in contemporary Kansas.
If Brownback is at all the puritanical curmudgeon his critics portray, he’s unlikely to be dissuaded by the prospect that people aren’t having sex. There might be some economic repercussions, such as a precipitous decline in the sale of cocktails, lobster dinners, and prophylactics, but it probably wouldn’t be enough to rattle the governor. The point might be to have Brownback inundated with angry phone calls and letters by men who blame him for their sudden celibacy, but we can’t foresee many Kansas men publicly admitting that they aren’t getting any action, and in any case the striking women are probably depriving men who already share their enthusiasm for abortion.
Besides, the strike is only scheduled to run from precisely midnight on April 28 to precisely midnight on May 5. That might be harrowing for the youngsters, but the older married men should manage the duration without breaking a sweat.
The sex strike plan apparently originated with a Texas-based group calling itself Liberal Ladies Who Lunch, and is being promoted here in Wichita by the local affiliate of the “Occupy Wall Street” movement. We know little of the former group, except that they’re liberal, ladies, and like to eat lunch, all of which sounds like something we could easily do without for a week or more, but we’ve seen enough of the local “Occupiers” to be confident that the strike won’t affect activities here.
– Bud Norman
Seeking Justice, Not Revenge
– Bud Norman
A Pregnant Per Se
A most interesting quote from President Barack Obama appeared in the news on Thursday.
Asked by the host of National Public Radio’s “Marketplace” program about Solyndra, the cylindrical solar panel manufacturer that received hundreds of millions of dollars in federal loans and was touted by the president as a “model” for the new “green economy,” Obama replied that “Obviously we wish Solyndra hadn’t gone bankrupt. Part of the reason they did was the Chinese were subsidizing their solar industry and flooding the market in ways Solyndra couldn’t compete. But understand, this was not our program per se.”
The statement is remarkable in part because it was prompted a tough question from someone at National Public Radio, a famously genteel news organization usually disinclined to bring up such embarrassing matters to this president. The question was framed as delicately as possible, delivered with that soothing public radio voice, and there was no derisive snort at the answer, but by NPR standards it was a remarkable act of lese majesty nonetheless. We wish the host much luck with his next employer.
It is obvious that Obama wishes Solyndra hadn’t gone bankrupt, given that even Jon Stewart couldn’t resist mocking him about it, and not at all surprising that he would blame the Chinese. What’s striking about the statement, however, is that “per se” affixed to the end.
“Per se” is one of those phrases that immediately arouses the suspicion of an alert listener. One usually hears it at the end of such sentences as “I don’t think you’re fat, per se,” or “I didn’t run over your dog, per se.” Some clarification of what the speaker means by “per se” should always be demanded, except apparently by members of the news media.
Obama helpfully explained that “Congress, Democrats and Republicans, put together a loan guarantee program because they understood, historically, when you get new industries, it’s easy to raise money for start ups, but when you want to take them to scale oftentimes there’s a lot of risk involved, and what the loan guarantee program was designed to do was help get start up companies to scale.” So he apparently means by “per se” that it was actually a program of Congress, Democrats and Republicans, and they should be the ones that even Jon Stewart is ridiculing. He might as well have noted that it was also a program of the Department of Energy, an agency established during the administration of Jimmy Carter, and that his already much-maligned predecessor should therefore bear the blame.
Such a “per se” obscures a few key points. The funding for the Solyndra loans came not from some long-ago act of Congress but from the stimulus package that Obama was once eager to claim as his program, a point that he reiterated when he gave a much publicized speech at the Solyndra factory in happier times and told the adoring crowd that “Through the Recovery Act, this company received loans and expanded its operations. This new factory is the result of those loans.” The funding was also approved by Obama’s appointees at the Department of Energy, over the objections of the career civil servants there, and had been wisely rejected by the previous administration. Also, while it might not have been his program, per se, those were definitely his campaign bundlers who were getting the loans.
There’s no wondering why Obama would want to distance himself from the Solyndra fiasco, but it remains a mystery why he stubbornly clings to the rest of his failed “green jobs” policies. Solyndra is but one of several heavily-funded “green” projects hat have gone bust, from Ener1 to Beacon Power to the Chevy Volt, and it’s going to take a lot of per se to revise that history.
– Bud Norman
Oklahoma Crude
– Bud Norman
Profiles in Budgetary Courage
The budget plan introduced Tuesday by Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan and his fellow House Republicans is imperfect, as are all human creations, but they deserve some credit for at least being daring enough to offer up anything at all.
No matter how much one might wish for another option, there are only four things that any budget proposal can do. It can continue to hurtle the country headlong toward the fiscal cliff, impose massive tax hikes on almost every citizen, make steep cuts in government spending, or concoct some combination of the three. All four of these ideas poll badly, of course, and most politicians therefore prefer to stand foursquare against all of the above.
One of the most revealing moments of the Obama administration came last year when Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner testified before a Senate committee. Sen. Jeff Sessions, speaking in a severe Alabama accent, asked Geithner his opinion of a particular budget proposal that would increase the budget every year of the next ten years by hundreds of billions of dollars, and Geithner agreed that “absolutely, it is an excessively high interest burden, it is unattainable.” Clearly flummoxed by the response, Sessions reiterated that he was referring to the Obama budget plan, which Geithner’s boss had recently delivered to the Senate. Geithner seemed slightly surprised that anyone in the Senate had bothered to scan the document, and explained with a shrug that it was up to the legislative branch to find a sustainable solution, adding that “we’ll be able to see from the House, from this body, whether you people can find the political will to go deeper.”
At this year’s hearing, Geithner made clear the administration is no more eager some political will of its own and is happy to leave the necessary but unsavory reforms to Congress. Questioned once again by the dogged Sessions about the latest Obama proposal, Geithner conceded that “Even if congress were to enact this budget, we would still be left with, in the outer decades, as millions of Americans retire, what are still unsustainable commitments in Medicare and Medicaid.”
Nor have the congressional Democrats shown any political will when it comes to budgets. The Democrat-controlled Senate hasn’t passed any budget since April of 2009, voted down last year’s Obama budget by a convincing score of 97-0, and has yet to offer any new suggestions this year. Searching the internet for the House Democrats’ budget we found plenty of stories with such headlines as “Democrats ramp up attacks on House GOP budget proposal,” but nothing that spelled out an alternative plan.
The Ryan plan has no chance of passage, of course, and would be vetoed even if it were somehow passed by both chambers, which makes it all the more daring for them to expose themselves to the withering criticism that will surely come their way. They could have just as easily stayed quiet and run on the boast that at least they aren’t raising taxes, cutting spending, or doing some bi-partisan combination of the two. That would eventually lead to an economic catastrophe, of course, but that might not come until after the next election.
– Bud Norman
Brainwashed Blues
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NOAA > NWS > CPHC > FAQ > Tropical Cyclone Climatology
Tropical Cyclone Climatology
1. When is hurricane season ?
2. How does El Nino-Southern Oscillation affect tropical cyclone activity around the globe ?
3. What may happen with tropical cyclone activity due to global warming ?
At the end of the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season, many scientists, reporters and policymakers looked for simple answers to explain the extent of the devastation, which totaled more than $40 billion according to the National Hurricane Center. Some prominent scientists proposed that the intense 2004 hurricane season and its considerable impacts, particularly in Florida, could be linked to global warming resulting from the emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere (e.g., Harvard Medical School 2004; NCAR 2004). But the current state of climate science does not support so close a linkage.
Tropical cyclones can be thought of to a first approximation as a natural heat engine or Carnot cycle (Emanuel 1987). From this perspective global warming can theoretically influence the maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones through alterations of the surface energy flux and/or the upper-level cold exhaust (Emanuel 1987, Lighthill et al. 1994, Henderson-Sellers et al. 1998). But no theoretical basis yet exists for projecting changes in tropical cyclone frequency, though empirical studies do provide some guidance as to the necessary thermodynamic and dynamic ingredients for tropical cyclogenesis (Gray 1968, 1979).
Since 1995 there has been an increase in the frequency and in particular the intensity of hurricanes in the Atlantic. The changes of the past decade are not so large as to clearly indicate that anything is going on other than the multi-decadal variability that has been well documented since at least 1900 (Gray et al. 1997; Landsea et al. 1999; Goldenberg et al. 2001). Consequently, in the absence of large or unprecedented trends, any effect of greenhouse gases on the behavior of hurricanes is necessarily very difficult to detect in the context of this documented variability. Perspectives on hurricanes are no doubt shaped by recent history, with relatively few major hurricanes observed in the 1970s, 80s and early 90s, compared with considerable activity during the 1940s, 50s and early 60s. The period from 1944 to 1950 was particularly active for Florida. During that period eleven hurricanes hit the state, at least one per year, resulting in the equivalent of billions of dollars in damage in each of those years (Pielke and Landsea 1998).
Globally there has been no increase in tropical cyclone frequency over at least the past several decades (Lander and Guard 1998; Elsner and Kocher 2000). In addition to a lack of theory for future changes in storm frequencies, the few global modeling results are contradictory (Henderson-Sellers et al 1998; IPCC 2001). Because historical and observational data on hurricanes and tropical cyclones are relatively robust, it is clear that storm frequency has not tracked recent tropical climate trends. Research on possible future changes in hurricane frequency due to global warming is ambiguous, with most studies suggesting that future changes will be regionally-dependent, and showing a lack of consistency in projecting an increase or decrease in the total global number of storms (Henderson-Sellers et al. 1998, Royer et al. 1998; Sugi et al. 2002). These studies give such contradictory results as to suggest that the state of understanding of tropical cyclogenesis provides too poor a foundation to base any projections about the future. While there is always some degree of uncertainty about the future and model-based results are often fickle, the state of current understanding is such that we should expect hurricanes frequencies in the future to have a great deal of year-to-year and decade-to- decade variation as has been observed over the past decades and longer.
The issue of trends in tropical cyclone intensity is more complicated, simply because there are many possible metrics of intensity (e.g., maximum potential intensity, average intensity, average storm lifetime, maximum storm lifetime, average wind speed, maximum sustained wind speed, maximum wind gust, Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and so on), and not all such metrics have been closely studied from the standpoint of historical trends, due to data limitations among other reasons. Statistical analysis of historical tropical cyclone intensity shows a robust relationship to the thermodynamic potential intensity (Emanuel, 2000), suggesting that increasing potential intensity should lead to an increase in the actual intensity of storms. The increasing potential intensity associated with global warming as predicted by global climate models (Emanuel, 1987) is consistent with the increase in modeled storm intensities in a warmer climate, as might be expected (Knutson and Tuleya 2004). But while observations of tropical and subtropical sea surface temperature have shown an overall increase of about 0.2 C (0.4 F) over the past ~50 years, there is only weak evidence of a systematic increase in potential intensity (Bister and Emanuel, 2002; Free et al., 2004). The limited studies that have addressed tropical cyclone intensity variations (Landsea et al. 1999; Chan and Liu 2004) show no significant secular trends during the decades of reliable records.
Looking to the future, global modeling studies suggest the potential for relatively small changes in tropical cyclone intensities related to global warming. Early theoretical work suggested an increase of about 10% in wind speed for a 2 C (4 F) increase in tropical sea surface temperature (Emanuel, 1987). A 2004 study from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J., that utilized a mesoscale model downscaled from coupled global climate model runs indicated the possibility of a 5% increase in the wind speeds of hurricanes by 2080 (Knutson and Tuleya 2004; cf. IPCC 2001). Michaels et al. 2005 suggest that even this 5% increase may be overstated and that a more realistic projection is on the order of only half of that amount. Even if one accepts that the Knutson and Tuleya results are in the right ballpark, these would imply that changes to hurricane intensity on the order of 0.5-1.0 m/s (1-2 mph) may be occurring today. This value is exceedingly small in the context of the more than doubling in numbers of major hurricanes between quiet and active decadal periods in the Atlantic (Goldenberg et al. 2001). Moreover, such a change in intensities would not be observable with today's combination of aircraft reconnaissance and satellite based intensity estimates, which only resolves wind speeds of individual tropical cyclones to - at best - 2.5 m/s (5 mph) increments.
In summary:
• Storm total RAINFALL may also increase on the order of about 5% more precipication.
• Bister, M. and K. A. Emanuel, 2002: Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity, 1: Interannual to interdecadal variability. J. Geophys. Res., 107 (4801), doi:10.1029/2001JD000776
• Chan, J. C. L, and S. L. Liu. 2004: Global warming and western North Pacific typhoon activity from an observational perspective. J. Climate: 17. 4590-4602.
• Elsner, J. B., and B. Kocher, 2000: Global tropical cyclone activity: A link to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters, 27:129-132.
• Emanuel, K., 1987: The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate. Nature, 326, 483-485.
• Emanuel, K., 2000: A statistical analysis of tropical cyclone intensity. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 1139-1152.
• Free, M., M. Bister and K. Emanuel, 2004: Potential intensity of tropical cyclones: Comparison of results from radiosonde and reanalysis data. J. Climate, 17, 1722-1727
Goldenberg, S.B., C.W. Landsea, A.M. Mestas-Nunez, and W.M. Gray, 2001. The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity : Causes and implications Science. 293:474-479
• Gray, W.M. (1979): "Hurricanes: Their formation, structure and likely role in the tropical circulation", Meteorology Over Tropical Oceans. D. B. Shaw (Ed.), Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
• James Glaisher House, Grenville Place, Bracknell, Berkshire, RG12 1BX, pp.155-218.
Gray, W.M., J.D. Sheaffer, and C.W. Landsea, 1997: Climate trends associated with multidecadal variability of Atlantic hurricane activity. "Hurricanes: Climate and Socioeconomic Impacts." H.F. Diaz and R.S. Pulwarty, Eds., Springer--Verlag, New York, 15-53.
• Harvard Medical School, 2004. Press release: Experts to warn global warming likely to continue spurring more outbreaks of intense hurricane, 21 October, [A full transcript of the press conference can be found here:]
• Henderson-Sellers, A., H. Zhang, G. Berz, K. Emanuel, W. Gray, C. Landsea, G. Holland, J. Lighthill, S-L. Shieh, P. Webster, and K. McGuffie, 1998. Tropical cyclones and global climate change: a post-IPCC assessment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 79:9-38.
• IPCC, 2001. Climate Change 2001 - The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. J. H. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Nogue, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell and C. A. Johnson (Eds.), Cambridge University Press, 881 pp.
• Knutson T. R., and R. E. Tuleya, 2004: Impact of CO2-Induced Warming on Simulated Hurricane Intensity and Precipitation: Sensitivity to the Choice of Climate Model and Convective Parameterization. Journal of Climate, 17:3477-3495.
• Lander, M. A., and C. P. Guard, 1998: A look a global tropical cyclone activity during 1995: Contrasting high Atlantic activity with low activity in other basins. Monthly Weather Review, 126:1163-1173
• Landsea, C.W., Pielke, Jr., R.A., Mestas-Nunez, A.M., and Knaff, J.A., 1999: Atlantic basin hurricanes: Indices of climatic changes, Climatic Change, 42:89-129.
• Lighthill, J., G. J. Holland, W. M. Gray, C. Landsea, K. Emanuel, G. Craig, J. Evans, Y. Kurihara, and C. P. Guard, 1994: Global climate change and tropical cyclones. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 75, 2147-2157.
• Michaels, P. J., P. C. Knappenberger, and C. W. Landsea, 2005: Comments on impacts of CO2-induced warming on simulated hurricane intensity and precipitation: Sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective scheme. _J. Climate_, (in press).
• NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research), 2004. Hurricanes and climate change: Is there a connection?, NCAR Staff Notes Monthly, October,
• Pielke, Jr., R. A., and Landsea, C.W., 1998: Normalized U.S. hurricane damage, 1925- 1995. Weather and Forecasting, 13:621-631.
• Pielke, Jr., R. A., C. Landsea, K. Emanuel, M. Mayfield, J. Laver and R. Pasch, 2005: Hurricanes and global warming. _Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society_, in press.
• Royer, J.-F., F. Chauvin, B. Timbal, P. Araspin, and D. Grimal, 1998: A GCM study of impact of greenhouse gas increase on the frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones, Climate Dynamics, 38:307-343
• Sugi, M., A. Noda, and N. Sato, 2002: Influence of the global warming on tropical cyclone climatology: An experiment with the JMA global model. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 80:249-272.
4. Are we getting stronger and more frequent hurricanes, typhoons, and tropical cyclones in the last several years?
Globally, no. However, for the Atlantic basin we have seen an increase in the number of strong hurricanes since 1995. We have had a record 33 hurricanes in the four years of 1995 to 1999 (accurate records for the Atlantic are thought to begin around 1944). The extreme impacts from Hurricanes Marilyn (1995), Opal (1995), Fran (1996), Georges (1998) and Mitch (1998) in the United States and throughout the Caribbean attest to the high amounts of Atlantic hurricane activity lately.
As discussed in the previous section, it is highly unlikely that global warming has (or will) contribute to a drastic change in the number or intensity of hurricanes. We have not observed a long-term increase in the intensity or frequency of Atlantic hurricanes. Actually, 1991-1994 marked the four quietest years on record (back to the mid-1940s) with just less than 4 hurricanes per year. Instead of seeing a long-term trend up or down, we do see a quasi-cyclic multi-decade regime that alternates between active and quiet phases for major Atlantic hurricanes on the scale of 25-40 years each (Gray 1990; Landsea 1993; Landsea et al. 1996). The quiet decades of the 1970s to the early 1990s for major Atlantic hurricanes were likely due to changes in the Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature structure with cooler than usual waters in the North Atlantic. The reverse situation of a warm North Atlantic was present during the active late-1920s through the 1960s (Gray et al. 1997). It is quite possible that the extreme activity since 1995 marks the start of another active period that may last a total of 25-40 years. More research is needed to better understand these hurricane cycles.
For the region near Australia (105°-160°E, south of the equator), Nicholls (1992) identified a downward trend in the numbers of tropical cyclones, primarily from the mid-1980s onward. However, a portion of this trend is likely artificial as the forecasters in the region no longer classify weak systems as "cyclones" if the systems do not possess the traditional tropical cyclone inner-core structure, but have the band of maximum winds well-removed from the center (Nicholls et al. 1998). These changes in methodology around the mid-1980s have been prompted by improved access to and interpretation of digital satellite data, the installation of coastal and off-shore radar, and an increased understanding of the differentiation of tropical cyclones from other type of tropical weather systems. By considering only the moderate and intense tropical cyclones, this artificial bias in the cyclone record can be overcome. Even with the removal of this bias in the weak Australian tropical cyclones that the frequency of the remaining moderate and strong tropical cyclones has been reduced substantially over the years 1969/70-1995/96. Nicholls et al. (1998) attribute the decrease in moderate cyclones to the occurrence of more frequent El Nino occurrences during the 1980s and 1990s.
For the Northwest Pacific basin, Chan and Shi (1996) found that both the frequency of typhoons and the total number of tropical storms and typhoons have been increasing since about 1980. However, the increase was preceded by a nearly identical magnitude of decrease from about 1960 to 1980. It is unknown currently what has caused these decadal-scale changes in the Northwest Pacific typhoons.
For the remaining basins based upon data from the late 1960s onwards, the Northeast Pacific has experienced a significant upward trend in tropical cyclone frequency, the North Indian a significant downward trend, and no appreciable long-term variation was observed in the Southwest Indian and Southwest Pacific (east of 160°E) for the total number of tropical storm strength cyclones (from Neumann 1993). However, whether these represent longer term (> 30 years) or shorter term (on the scale of ten years) variability is completely unknown because of the lack of a long, reliable record.
5. Why do tropical cyclones occur primarily in the summer and autumn ?
The primary time of year for tropical cyclones is during the summer and autumn: July-October for the Northern Hemisphere and December-March for the Southern Hemisphere (though there are differences from basin to basin). The peak in summer/autumn is due to having all of the necessary ingredients become most favorable during this time of year: warm ocean waters (at least 26°C or 80°F), a tropical atmosphere that can quite easily kick off convection (i.e. thunderstorms), low vertical shear in the troposphere, and a substantial amount of large-scale spin available (either through the monsoon trough or easterly waves).
While one would intuitively expect tropical cyclones to peak right at the time of maximum solar radiation (late June for the tropical Northern Hemisphere and late December for the tropical Southern Hemisphere), it takes several more weeks for the oceans to reach their warmest temperatures. The atmospheric circulation in the tropics also reaches its most pronounced (and favorable for tropical cyclones) at the same time. This time lag of the tropical ocean and atmospheric circulation is analogous to the daily cycle of surface air temperatures - they are warmest in mid-afternoon, yet the sun's incident radiation peaks at noon.
6. What determines the movement of tropical cyclones ?
Tropical cyclones can be thought of as being steered by the surrounding environmental flow throughout the depth of the troposphere (from the surface to about 12 km or 8 mi). Dr. Neil Frank, former director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, used the analogy that the movement of hurricanes is like a leaf being steered by the currents in the stream, except that for a hurricane the stream has no set boundaries.
Many times it is difficult to tell whether a trough will allow the tropical cyclone to recurve north or northeastward or whether the tropical cyclone will continue west or northwest.
7. Why doesn't the South Atlantic Ocean experience tropical cyclones ?
The National Hurricane Center in Miami has documented the occurrence of a strong tropical depression/weak tropical storm that formed off the coast of Congo in mid-April 1991 (McAdie and Rappaport (1991)). This storm lasted about five days and drifted toward the west-southwest into the central South Atlantic. So far, there has not been a systematic study as to the conditions that accompanied this rare event.
Penn State University article on the South Atlantic hurricane
8. Does an active June and July mean the rest of the season will be busy too ?
Yes and No. The vast majority of Atlantic activity takes place during August-September-October, the climatological peak months of the hurricane season. The overall number of named storms (hurricanes) occurring in June and July (JJ) correlates at an insignificant r = +0.13 (+0.02) versus the whole season activity. In fact, there is a slight negative relationship between early season storms (hurricanes) versus late season - August through November - r = -0.28 (-0.35). Thus, the overall early season activity, be it very active or quite calm, has little bearing on the season as a whole. These correlations are based on the years 1944-1994.
However, as shown in (Goldenberg 2000), if one looks only at the June-July Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes occurring south of 22°N and east of 77°W (the eastern portion of the Main Development Region [MDR] for Atlantic hurricanes), there is a strong association with activity for the remainder of the year. According to the data from 1944-1999, total overall Atlantic activity for years that had a tropical storm or hurricane form in this region during JJ have been at least average and often times above average. So it could be said that a JJ storm in this region is pretty much a "sufficient" (though not "necessary") condition for a year to produce at least average activity. (I.e., Not all years with average to above-average total overall activity have had a JJ storm in that region, but almost all years with that type of JJ storm produce average to above-average activity.) The formation of a storm in this region during June-July is taken into account when the August updates for the Bill Gray and NOAA seasonal forecasts are issued.
9. Why do hurricanes hit the East coast of the U.S., but never the West coast ?
Hurricanes form both in the Atlantic basin (i.e. the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) and in the Northeast Pacific basin to the west of the U.S. However, the ones in the Northeast Pacific almost never hit the U.S., while the ones in the Atlantic basin strike the U.S. mainland just less than twice a year on average. There are two main reasons. The first is that hurricanes tend to move toward the west-northwest after they form in the tropical and subtropical latitudes. In the Atlantic, such a motion often brings the hurricane into the vicinity of the U.S. east coast. In the Northeast Pacific, a west-northwest track takes those hurricanes farther off-shore, well away from the U.S. west coast. In addition to the general track, a second factor is the difference in water temperatures along the U.S. east and west coasts. Along the U.S. east coast, the Gulf Stream provides a source of warm (> 80°F or 26.5°C) waters to help maintain the hurricane. However, along the U.S. west coast, the ocean temperatures rarely get above the lower 70s, even in the midst of summer. Such relatively cool temperatures are not energetic enough to sustain a hurricane's strength. So for the occasional Northeast Pacific hurricane that does track back toward the U.S. west coast, the cooler waters can quickly reduce the strength of the storm.
Recently (Chenoweth and Landsea 2005), it was re-discovered that a hurricane struck San Diego, California on October 2, 1858. Unprecedented damage was done in the city and was described as the severest gale ever felt to that date nor has it been matched or exceeded in severity since. The hurricane force winds at San Diego are the first and only documented instance of winds of this strength from a tropical cyclone in the recorded history of the state. While climate records are incomplete, 1858 may have been an El Nino year, which would have allowed the hurricane to maintain intensity as it moved north along warmer than usual waters. Today if a Category 1 hurricane made a direct landfall in either San Diego or Los Angeles, damage from such a storm would likely be on the order of a few to several hundred million dollars. The re-discovery of this storm is relevant to climate change issues and the insurance/emergency management communities risk assessment of rare and extreme events in the region.
10. How much lightning occurs in tropical cyclones ?
11. What is my chance of being struck by a tropical storm or hurricane ?
In the Pacific:
The following return periods have been suggestd for tropical cyclones wind speeds within 250 miles of Honolulu, close enough that watches would likely be issued for some portion of the state of Hawaii:
Maximum wind speed (kt) 1949-1995 (Full Data set) 1970-1995 (Satellite Era)
34 3.2 3.2
50 4 4
64 66 6.6
60 12 13
100 33 42
110 59 81
125 137 202
Chu, P.S., and J.X. Wang, 1998: Modeling Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Intensities n the Vicinity of Hawaii. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 37, 951-960.
In the Atlantic Basin
Empirical Probability of a Named Storm
The figure here shows for any particular location what the chance is that a tropical storm or hurricane will affect the area sometime during the whole June to November hurricane season. We utilized the years 1944 to 1999 in the analysis and counted hits when a storm or hurricane was within about 100 miles (165 km). This figure is created by Todd Kimberlain.
For example, people living in New Orleans, Louisiana have about a 40% chance (the green-orange color) per year of experiencing a strike by a tropical storm or hurricane. For the U.S., the locations that have the highest chances are the following: Miami, Florida - 48% chance; Cape Hatteras, North Carolina - 48% chance; and San Juan, Puerto Rico - 42% chance.
For any particular location the chance that a hurricane will directly affect the area sometime during the whole June to November hurricane season is shown here. We utilized the years 1944 to 1999 in the analysis and counted hits when a hurricane was within about 60 miles (110 km). This figure is created by Todd Kimberlain. (For example, the chance for Miami, Florida is about 16%.)
For any particular location what the chance is that a major hurricane (Category 3, 4 or 5) will directly affect the area sometime during the whole June to November hurricane season is shown here. We utilized the years 1944 to 1999 in the analysis and counted hits when a hurricane was within about 30 miles (50 km). This figure is created by Todd Kimberlain. (For example, the chance for Miami, Florida is about 4%.)
Many folks are concerned about the possible impacts that a hurricane could have on their vacation. If so, please check with your hotel, cruise company, etc. to find out how they inform their guests when a hurricane is coming, what actions they plan and what refund policies they have (if any). Keep in mind that a direct hit by a major hurricane is an extremely rare event.
12. What is my chance of having a tropical storm or hurricane strike in the Atlantic Basin each month ?
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Analyzing Growth
I discussed fundamental analysis previously. But where do these numbers come from. It can all be explained in one word, GROWTH. The reason why one stock trades more expensively than the other is that it grows faster than the other. Having the ability to see changes in management, merges and acquisitions, release of new products, and change in the competition before they happen will lead to large rewards. Consequently, if you are able to predict the future of a company’s growth then, you are able to forecast large moves before they actually happen (sounds easier than it is).
So how do you find the growth of a company? Easy, just check any finance website and look at their quotes, and examine their previous growth, because, it is a good indication of where they will be in the future. However, that is just a starting point.
But, here is where I believe the concept of value, price, worth of a stock mimics betting.
Here is an example. Say you want to make a bet on a basketball game, the Miami Heat versus the La Clippers. Now, usually, in any wager there is a team that is “favored” to win, the Heat, and then there is the underdog, the LA Clippers. Now in order to bet for the favoring team, you must give a certain number of points that the favoring team is going to win buy to secure a bet, the spread. Now the multiple is considered on wall street as the spread between winners and losers. Ultimately, you have to pay a higher price for growth on Wall Street just as you expect to give points to the LA Clippers on a basketball game.
Just like basketball, the team with better coaches, players, and a better history of winning is worth more, is identical, to a business since it has a better history of growth over time.
Here is where it gets interesting. Often times, financial analysts may describe as company as undervalued. For instance, say the the bookies say that the LA Clippers are not as good as the Miami Heat, because, the Heat have Lebron James, and Dwayne Wade. But they overlook, the fact that the LA Clippers now have Chris Paul, and state the Miami Heat have to win by “50 points” to make a wager. Of course, you would want to wager on the Clippers, because they are undervalued. This occurs all the time in the stock market, companies are under valued, under appreciated, while others are over rated. It is your job to find those companies that are under valued!
Your fundamental analysis should hone in on companies that are less well known, and smaller markets, and young growth companies. There is more risk with these companies, but the rewards far outweigh an over valued company. Just like Public Enemy once said, “Don’t Believe The Hype”
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SEO News
Pass Gas
Permanent marker - Rubbing alcohol poured into a puddle of gas Car exhaust - Poison, gas, and a salty hint of rising seas A warning from Wolfram|Alpha: "I definitely cannot recommend running your homework through Wolfram|Alpha, printing out the...
2. SearchDay | Don't Ignore Your Sitemap!
Since then, with updates, the service offers business search, driving directions, sports, stock quotes, weather, movie times, gas prices, and travel information. I've tried to reach out - Twitter, LinkedIn connects - to pass the job opportunities...
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http://searchenginewatch.com/topic/pass_gas
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i hate when people spoil a tv show or stuff for others. like have some respect.
I’ll be however I wanna be. If you don’t like it get the fuck on.I give no fucks.
It frustrates me to hear men say they rather date a ugly & skinny girl instead of a pretty chunky girl or a dumb skinny girl instead of a smart chubby girl. It shouldn’t matter of the size of the girl, if they have a really good personality it shouldn’t matter about their size or how they look.
I really don’t understand people sometimes. Shady ass people.I’s hard to know whos real or fake around here.And that just sucks cause it makes you put up a front , a guard against almost everyone you come across.Never letting those people know who you are..ugh
Ya know when looking back at things when you were younger than you are, that you cant do anymore really makes miss those things and never being able to do them again. oh nostalgia.. It helps you realize how thankful you are that were exposed to those things in that time in your life. All that time you’ll never get back..All the mistakes you could have made that could have set you on a different path. But then again I guess why we didn’t chose those things because it wasn’t our path to go down, but it makes you curious as to why not me? All the people you could have helped or met if you wasn’t so reserved or shy or whatever the case maybe. I don’t know just thoughts..
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Instant Immersion English v2.0 (Spanish Version) by TOPICS Entertainment
El camino mas rapido a un nuevo idioma - Begin your course of study with Talk Now! English, your computer primer for basic vocabulary and accurate pronunciation. Talk More English reinforces your learning progress with video technology and supplemental phrases. Graduate to intermediate level with World Talk English and its recording studio and interactive game show features. Build your English lexicon with 2,000 word entries from the Interactive Picture Dictionary offering audio and pictorial definitions. Finally, test your command of your new language with Who is Oscar Lake? English, the interactive mystery game in which hunting down a stolen diamond in a foreign city is your only chance to clear your name.
* Review Headline:
* Rating:
* Comments:
The most useful comments contain specific examples about:
• How you use the product
• Things that are great about it
• Things that aren't so great about it
* Bottom Line:
Yes, I would recommend this to a friend
No, I would not recommend this to a friend
* Nickname:
Ex. Joe Photographer
* Location:
Ex. Los Angeles, CA
Your Email:
* Required fields
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http://www.nothingbutsoftware.com/Product/WriteReview/89672
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| 260
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Scientific Publications
The AP1-dependent secretion of galectin-1 by Reed Sternberg cells fosters immune privilege in classical Hodgkin lymphoma
Publication TypeJournal Article
AuthorsJuszczynski, Przemyslaw, Ouyang Jing, Monti Stefano, Rodig Scott J., Takeyama Kunihiko, Abramson Jeremy, Chen Wen, Kutok Jeffery L., Rabinovich Gabriel A., and Shipp Margaret A.
AbstractClassical Hodgkin lymphomas (cHLs) contain small numbers of neoplastic Reed-Sternberg (RS) cells within an extensive inflammatory infiltrate that includes abundant T helper (Th)-2 and T regulatory (Treg) cells. The skewed nature of the T cell infiltrate and the lack of an effective host antitumor immune response suggest that RS cells use potent mechanisms to evade immune attack. In a screen for T cell-inhibitory molecules in cHL, we found that RS cells selectively overexpressed the immunoregulatory glycan-binding protein, galectin-1 (Gal1), through an AP1-dependent enhancer. In cocultures of activated T cells and Hodgkin cell lines, RNAi-mediated blockade of RS cell Gal1 increased T cell viability and restored the Th1/Th2 balance. In contrast, Gal1 treatment of activated T cells favored the secretion of Th2 cytokines and the expansion of CD4+CD25high FOXP3+ Treg cells. These data directly implicate RS cell Gal1 in the development and maintenance of an immunosuppressive Th2/Treg-skewed microenvironment in cHL and provide the molecular basis for selective Gal1 expression in RS cells. Thus, Gal1 represents a potential therapeutic target for restoring immune surveillance in cHL.
Year of Publication2007
Pages13134 - 9
Date Published (YYYY/MM/DD)2007/08/07/
ISBN Number0027-8424
KeywordsCancer, Cytokines, Forkhead Transcription Factors, Galectin 1, Hodgkin Disease, Humans, Immune Tolerance, Reed-Sternberg Cells, Regulatory, T-Lymphocytes, Th2 Cells, Transcription Factor AP-1
|
http://www.broadinstitute.org/publications/broad828
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