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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
He's like, probably not.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#01:39:01.480
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
He's probably just got it, you know?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And then they lose all their money by calling
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#01:39:05.760
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
or going all in as well.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#01:39:08.020
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And so the right thing is to be more patient.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So amateur is too impatient or just bad reads?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So all the amateurs are built different.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Some of the amateurs are just too weak and passive.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
They're just waiting for the nuts, you know?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And then, you know, the pros, everyone notices that.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And then when they make their big hand,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
they don't get paid anyway.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So in order to win the main event,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#01:39:30.640
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
I mean, you have to have some components
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
of your game that are aggressive.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
It's very unlikely to expect to just get the cards
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
the whole way and just always have the best hand.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
You're gonna have to find ways to win pots
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
that, you know, where you don't have the best hand.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
How do you win the final table?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
The final table is unique now,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
especially because you're talking about the way
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
that poker works in tournaments is that
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
if there's seven people left
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
and you have just, you know, you're very short on chips.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
But if one other player goes out,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
you just make like $300,000 for folding,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
like just for sitting out, right?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
The term for that that, you know,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
show kids uses ICM, independent, you know, chip model,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
right, where it talks about the value of each chip.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Where what happens, what we see now is,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#01:40:15.460
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
let's say one guy has a big chip lead
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
and there's another guy who's second in chips
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
and there's a couple that are short.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
These guys in the middle, they just play super tight
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
and they wait for the little guys to go
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
while the big stack is just pounding them
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
because he can afford to, right?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
He knows that people are handcuffed.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So let's say I had 10 million in chips
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
and you have 9 million in chips.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And these guys have little chips.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
If I go all in on you, are you gonna call me
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
and risk like, you know, guaranteed pay jumps
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
of like moving up a few spots?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So really the question comes down to like,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
are you the type of guy who just wants to inch up
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
or are you gonna go for it?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And you're gonna go for the win.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
I think ultimately there's some value
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
in being the guy who says,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
you know, I don't care if I come seventh.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
I'm not worried about going from seventh to fifth.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
I'm here to win.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And so you're saying like the guys that win
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
will often be the ones that call there.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So like, they're not just bullying the small stacks, they're.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Well, they're the ones,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
no, they're the ones that are willing to risk it, right?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So there are some people who, you know,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
if there's five left, you know,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
and they're third in chips
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
and there's two guys very short
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
and you, you know, they'll have ace king
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
and someone moves, they'll just fold.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
They fold the hand because they wanna wait
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
for those two other players to get broke.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And that way they let you know, they make actual money.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So you, I guess the thought process
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
between winning first place
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
and winning the most amount of money are different.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
They're conflicting, right?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Because in order to like win,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
if you're just, if your focus is only on winning
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
the tournament, you will make mistakes financially
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
where you had guaranteed income for just folding, right?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Let's say a guy has one chip left, you know, one chip
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
and me and you have good chips
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
and I go all in with you and I lose.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Now that guy, you know, got the guaranteed,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
you know, he got the pay jump that I wouldn't have got.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So there's some extremely stupid mistakes
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
you can make from a financial perspective,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
but it's often at odds with, you know,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
giving yourself the best chance to actually come first.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And in a tournament, especially the main event,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
especially the final table, it's all about coming in first.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Well, I know because most of the people who make it,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#01:42:15.080
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
so like, you know, when you play these high rollers,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#01:42:17.520
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
these guys are accustomed to playing for a hundred thousand,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
they're, they're accustomed to this kind of money.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So they're going to play, right?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
For the most, but you're talking about guys
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
who bought into a $10,000 tournament,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
maybe never had a hundred K cash in their life.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And now they're sitting there and it's like 1 million
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
for fifth and 2 million for fourth.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So like, they don't want to be fifth,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
they're just going to sit there and go, ah, I don't want.
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