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Show exactly input and gold columns for every task and year

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  1. README.md +102 -125
README.md CHANGED
@@ -22,161 +22,161 @@ configs:
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  default: true
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  data_files:
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  - split: year_1990
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- path: data/task1/year_1990.parquet
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  - split: year_1991
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- path: data/task1/year_1991.parquet
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  - split: year_1992
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- path: data/task1/year_1992.parquet
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  - split: year_1993
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- path: data/task1/year_1993.parquet
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  - split: year_1994
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- path: data/task1/year_1994.parquet
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  - split: year_1995
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- path: data/task1/year_1995.parquet
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  - split: year_1996
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- path: data/task1/year_1996.parquet
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  - split: year_1997
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- path: data/task1/year_1997.parquet
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  - split: year_1998
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- path: data/task1/year_1998.parquet
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  - split: year_1999
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- path: data/task1/year_1999.parquet
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  - split: year_2000
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- path: data/task1/year_2000.parquet
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  - split: year_2001
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- path: data/task1/year_2001.parquet
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  - split: year_2002
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- path: data/task1/year_2002.parquet
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  - split: year_2003
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- path: data/task1/year_2003.parquet
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  - split: year_2004
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- path: data/task1/year_2004.parquet
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  - split: year_2005
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- path: data/task1/year_2005.parquet
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  - split: year_2006
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- path: data/task1/year_2006.parquet
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  - split: year_2007
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- path: data/task1/year_2007.parquet
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  - split: year_2008
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- path: data/task1/year_2008.parquet
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  - split: year_2009
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- path: data/task1/year_2009.parquet
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  - split: year_2010
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- path: data/task1/year_2010.parquet
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  - split: year_2011
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- path: data/task1/year_2011.parquet
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  - split: year_2012
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- path: data/task1/year_2012.parquet
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  - split: year_2013
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- path: data/task1/year_2013.parquet
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  - split: year_2014
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- path: data/task1/year_2014.parquet
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  - split: year_2015
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- path: data/task1/year_2015.parquet
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  - split: year_2016
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- path: data/task1/year_2016.parquet
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  - split: year_2017
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- path: data/task1/year_2017.parquet
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  - split: year_2018
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- path: data/task1/year_2018.parquet
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  - split: year_2019
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- path: data/task1/year_2019.parquet
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  - split: year_2020
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- path: data/task1/year_2020.parquet
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  - split: year_2021
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- path: data/task1/year_2021.parquet
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  - split: year_2022
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- path: data/task1/year_2022.parquet
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  - split: year_2023
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- path: data/task1/year_2023.parquet
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  - split: year_2024
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- path: data/task1/year_2024.parquet
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  - split: year_2025
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- path: data/task1/year_2025.parquet
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  - split: year_2026
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- path: data/task1/year_2026.parquet
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  - config_name: task2
99
  data_files:
100
  - split: year_1990
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- path: data/task2/year_1990.parquet
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  - split: year_1991
103
- path: data/task2/year_1991.parquet
104
  - split: year_1992
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- path: data/task2/year_1992.parquet
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  - split: year_1993
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- path: data/task2/year_1993.parquet
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  - split: year_1994
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- path: data/task2/year_1994.parquet
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  - split: year_1995
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- path: data/task2/year_1995.parquet
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  - split: year_1996
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- path: data/task2/year_1996.parquet
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  - split: year_1997
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- path: data/task2/year_1997.parquet
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  - split: year_1998
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- path: data/task2/year_1998.parquet
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  - split: year_1999
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- path: data/task2/year_1999.parquet
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  - split: year_2000
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- path: data/task2/year_2000.parquet
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  - split: year_2001
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- path: data/task2/year_2001.parquet
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  - split: year_2002
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- path: data/task2/year_2002.parquet
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  - split: year_2003
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- path: data/task2/year_2003.parquet
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  - split: year_2004
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- path: data/task2/year_2004.parquet
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  - split: year_2005
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- path: data/task2/year_2005.parquet
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  - split: year_2006
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- path: data/task2/year_2006.parquet
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  - split: year_2007
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- path: data/task2/year_2007.parquet
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  - split: year_2008
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- path: data/task2/year_2008.parquet
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  - split: year_2009
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- path: data/task2/year_2009.parquet
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  - split: year_2010
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- path: data/task2/year_2010.parquet
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  - split: year_2011
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- path: data/task2/year_2011.parquet
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  - split: year_2012
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- path: data/task2/year_2012.parquet
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  - split: year_2013
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- path: data/task2/year_2013.parquet
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  - split: year_2014
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- path: data/task2/year_2014.parquet
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  - split: year_2015
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- path: data/task2/year_2015.parquet
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  - split: year_2016
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- path: data/task2/year_2016.parquet
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  - split: year_2017
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- path: data/task2/year_2017.parquet
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  - split: year_2018
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- path: data/task2/year_2018.parquet
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  - split: year_2019
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- path: data/task2/year_2019.parquet
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  - split: year_2020
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- path: data/task2/year_2020.parquet
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  - split: year_2021
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- path: data/task2/year_2021.parquet
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  - split: year_2022
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- path: data/task2/year_2022.parquet
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  - split: year_2023
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- path: data/task2/year_2023.parquet
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  - split: year_2024
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- path: data/task2/year_2024.parquet
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  - split: year_2025
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- path: data/task2/year_2025.parquet
172
  - split: year_2026
173
- path: data/task2/year_2026.parquet
174
  - config_name: task3
175
  data_files:
176
  - split: year_2025
177
- path: data/task3/year_2025.parquet
178
  - split: year_2026
179
- path: data/task3/year_2026.parquet
180
  ---
181
 
182
  # Annulus Economic Benchmark
@@ -206,11 +206,18 @@ The data are constructed from frozen statistical-table downloads from the Bank f
206
 
207
  Five topics were replaced only in September 2026 to use available published outcomes while preserving the regional counts: Japan CPI → Japan long-term government bond yield; UK CPI → UK long-term government bond yield; South Africa CPI → Kenya policy rate; Morocco CPI → Nigeria policy rate; and Algeria CPI → Ghana policy rate. These substitutions are recorded in the release metadata and should be considered when comparing September with earlier months.
208
 
209
- ## Files and use
210
 
211
- For model runs, use the separate `evaluation/{task}/{year}/input.jsonl` and `gold.jsonl` files described below.
212
 
213
- The Dataset Viewer provides three configurations: `task1`, `task2`, and `task3`. Each is partitioned into target-year splits such as `year_1990` and `year_2025`. Question records include `messages` for model inference and separate scoring metadata. Gold answers, conditional labels, and evidence are supplied for offline evaluation; they must not be included in model input. Use only `messages` when constructing an inference request, and join predictions to scoring records by their IDs.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
214
 
215
  ## Validation and limitations
216
 
@@ -220,59 +227,29 @@ The source snapshots may contain revisions and are not historical real-time vint
220
 
221
  The dataset provides prompts, outcomes, and provenance for evaluation. This release does not include model-evaluation results or establish a model’s actual knowledge state from calendar dates alone.
222
 
223
- ## Model input and gold files
224
-
225
- Use the separate JSONL pair for each task and target year to run inference and score predictions:
226
-
227
- ```text
228
- evaluation/task1/1990/input.jsonl
229
- evaluation/task1/1990/gold.jsonl
230
- evaluation/task2/1990/input.jsonl
231
- evaluation/task2/1990/gold.jsonl
232
- evaluation/task3/2026/input.jsonl
233
- evaluation/task3/2026/gold.jsonl
234
- ```
235
-
236
- Every `input.jsonl` row has only `id` and `messages`. Send only `messages` to the model; keep `id` in the client so its output can be joined to gold. The corresponding `gold.jsonl` has the same IDs in the same order, with offline answer keys and scoring metadata. Never include a gold row in a model request. The 76 task/year partitions contain 26,460 inputs and 26,460 corresponding gold records; these are separate views of the existing questions, not new questions. The complete file list and counts are in `metadata/evaluation_pairs.json`.
237
-
238
- Task 1 gold retains `mode`, the option-letter-to-behavior mapping, and `gold_by_boundary` with `inside` and `outside` option letters. Choose the condition using your evaluation protocol; the files do not infer an individual model's knowledge from a calendar date. Task 2 uses `gold_label` for the correct trajectory option. Task 3 uses `gold_label` for the observed outcome and retains the original `choices`, `status`, `target_month` and `topic_id` needed for probability scoring.
239
-
240
- Task 1 and Task 2 model responses are option letters. Task 3 responses contain `probabilities` for the actual option letters and a nonempty `reason`; preserve these probabilities rather than keeping only their maximum. The client should attach the input's `id` when saving responses. There is no single reference reasoning text in gold.
241
-
242
- Download one input/gold pair:
243
 
244
  ```python
245
- import json
246
- from huggingface_hub import hf_hub_download
247
-
248
- repo_id = "lfqian/Annulus-Economic-Benchmark"
249
- prefix = "evaluation/task1/1990"
250
- input_path = hf_hub_download(repo_id, f"{prefix}/input.jsonl", repo_type="dataset")
251
- gold_path = hf_hub_download(repo_id, f"{prefix}/gold.jsonl", repo_type="dataset")
252
 
253
- with open(input_path) as f:
254
- inputs = [json.loads(line) for line in f]
255
- with open(gold_path) as f:
256
- gold_by_id = {row["id"]: row for row in map(json.loads, f)}
 
 
257
 
258
- messages = inputs[0]["messages"] # Send this to your model.
259
- gold = gold_by_id[inputs[0]["id"]] # Read this only for offline scoring.
 
260
  ```
261
 
262
- ## Dataset Viewer loading
263
-
264
- ```python
265
- from datasets import load_dataset
266
-
267
- questions_1990 = load_dataset("lfqian/Annulus-Economic-Benchmark", "task1", split="year_1990")
268
- forecasts_2026 = load_dataset("lfqian/Annulus-Economic-Benchmark", "task3", split="year_2026")
269
- september_2026 = forecasts_2026.filter(lambda x: x["period"] == "2026-09")
270
- ```
271
 
272
- The three task configurations contain the question text, labelled `choices`, temporal and geographical metadata, `messages` for inference, and offline scoring fields. The `model_inputs/task1`, `model_inputs/task2`, and `model_inputs/task3` folders contain optional prompt-only Parquet files with just `id` and `messages`, organized by the same target years. The `data/facts` folder contains the underlying numerical observations and numerical-answer choices. These auxiliary files are available through the repository file browser; they are not additional Dataset Viewer configurations, tasks, or benchmark questions.
273
 
274
- In Task 1, `gold_inside_label` and `gold_outside_label` are option letters under the two boundary conditions. In Tasks 2 and 3, `gold_label` is the observed answer's option letter. Nested source evidence is serialized as `evidence_json` to preserve heterogeneous source metadata. Task 1's `option_metadata_json` identifies each option's response behaviour.
275
 
276
- The first Dataset Viewer selector, **Subset**, selects the task/configuration. The second, **Split**, selects a target year named `year_YYYY`. Task 1 and Task 2 span `year_1990` through `year_2026`; Task 3 has only `year_2025` and `year_2026`. Auxiliary facts and prompt-only files use corresponding year partitions. Within 2025 and 2026, filter `period` (`YYYY-MM`) for a particular month. These splits organize evaluation items by target year; they are not training/validation partitions. Task 1 recall/predict questions remain distinguished by `mode` within each year. `alignment_key` connects records for the same object and target period; `metadata/alignments.jsonl` lists the joins explicitly.
277
 
278
- `metadata/release.json` records exact counts, per-period distributions, regional quotas, topic substitutions, and the hashes of the numerical audit reports used for this release. `metadata/panels.json` describes the source panels, and `metadata/checksums.json` binds the public files. See [source notices](SOURCE_NOTICES.md) for attribution and reuse status.
 
22
  default: true
23
  data_files:
24
  - split: year_1990
25
+ path: viewer/task1/year_1990.parquet
26
  - split: year_1991
27
+ path: viewer/task1/year_1991.parquet
28
  - split: year_1992
29
+ path: viewer/task1/year_1992.parquet
30
  - split: year_1993
31
+ path: viewer/task1/year_1993.parquet
32
  - split: year_1994
33
+ path: viewer/task1/year_1994.parquet
34
  - split: year_1995
35
+ path: viewer/task1/year_1995.parquet
36
  - split: year_1996
37
+ path: viewer/task1/year_1996.parquet
38
  - split: year_1997
39
+ path: viewer/task1/year_1997.parquet
40
  - split: year_1998
41
+ path: viewer/task1/year_1998.parquet
42
  - split: year_1999
43
+ path: viewer/task1/year_1999.parquet
44
  - split: year_2000
45
+ path: viewer/task1/year_2000.parquet
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  - split: year_2001
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+ path: viewer/task1/year_2001.parquet
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  - split: year_2002
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+ path: viewer/task1/year_2002.parquet
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  - split: year_2003
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+ path: viewer/task1/year_2003.parquet
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  - split: year_2004
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+ path: viewer/task1/year_2004.parquet
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  - split: year_2005
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+ path: viewer/task1/year_2005.parquet
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  - split: year_2006
57
+ path: viewer/task1/year_2006.parquet
58
  - split: year_2007
59
+ path: viewer/task1/year_2007.parquet
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  - split: year_2008
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+ path: viewer/task1/year_2008.parquet
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  - split: year_2009
63
+ path: viewer/task1/year_2009.parquet
64
  - split: year_2010
65
+ path: viewer/task1/year_2010.parquet
66
  - split: year_2011
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+ path: viewer/task1/year_2011.parquet
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  - split: year_2012
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+ path: viewer/task1/year_2012.parquet
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  - split: year_2013
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+ path: viewer/task1/year_2013.parquet
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  - split: year_2014
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+ path: viewer/task1/year_2014.parquet
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  - split: year_2015
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+ path: viewer/task1/year_2015.parquet
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  - split: year_2016
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+ path: viewer/task1/year_2016.parquet
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  - split: year_2017
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+ path: viewer/task1/year_2017.parquet
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  - split: year_2018
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+ path: viewer/task1/year_2018.parquet
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  - split: year_2019
83
+ path: viewer/task1/year_2019.parquet
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  - split: year_2020
85
+ path: viewer/task1/year_2020.parquet
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  - split: year_2021
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+ path: viewer/task1/year_2021.parquet
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  - split: year_2022
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+ path: viewer/task1/year_2022.parquet
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  - split: year_2023
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+ path: viewer/task1/year_2023.parquet
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  - split: year_2024
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+ path: viewer/task1/year_2024.parquet
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  - split: year_2025
95
+ path: viewer/task1/year_2025.parquet
96
  - split: year_2026
97
+ path: viewer/task1/year_2026.parquet
98
  - config_name: task2
99
  data_files:
100
  - split: year_1990
101
+ path: viewer/task2/year_1990.parquet
102
  - split: year_1991
103
+ path: viewer/task2/year_1991.parquet
104
  - split: year_1992
105
+ path: viewer/task2/year_1992.parquet
106
  - split: year_1993
107
+ path: viewer/task2/year_1993.parquet
108
  - split: year_1994
109
+ path: viewer/task2/year_1994.parquet
110
  - split: year_1995
111
+ path: viewer/task2/year_1995.parquet
112
  - split: year_1996
113
+ path: viewer/task2/year_1996.parquet
114
  - split: year_1997
115
+ path: viewer/task2/year_1997.parquet
116
  - split: year_1998
117
+ path: viewer/task2/year_1998.parquet
118
  - split: year_1999
119
+ path: viewer/task2/year_1999.parquet
120
  - split: year_2000
121
+ path: viewer/task2/year_2000.parquet
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  - split: year_2001
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+ path: viewer/task2/year_2001.parquet
124
  - split: year_2002
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+ path: viewer/task2/year_2002.parquet
126
  - split: year_2003
127
+ path: viewer/task2/year_2003.parquet
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  - split: year_2004
129
+ path: viewer/task2/year_2004.parquet
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  - split: year_2005
131
+ path: viewer/task2/year_2005.parquet
132
  - split: year_2006
133
+ path: viewer/task2/year_2006.parquet
134
  - split: year_2007
135
+ path: viewer/task2/year_2007.parquet
136
  - split: year_2008
137
+ path: viewer/task2/year_2008.parquet
138
  - split: year_2009
139
+ path: viewer/task2/year_2009.parquet
140
  - split: year_2010
141
+ path: viewer/task2/year_2010.parquet
142
  - split: year_2011
143
+ path: viewer/task2/year_2011.parquet
144
  - split: year_2012
145
+ path: viewer/task2/year_2012.parquet
146
  - split: year_2013
147
+ path: viewer/task2/year_2013.parquet
148
  - split: year_2014
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+ path: viewer/task2/year_2014.parquet
150
  - split: year_2015
151
+ path: viewer/task2/year_2015.parquet
152
  - split: year_2016
153
+ path: viewer/task2/year_2016.parquet
154
  - split: year_2017
155
+ path: viewer/task2/year_2017.parquet
156
  - split: year_2018
157
+ path: viewer/task2/year_2018.parquet
158
  - split: year_2019
159
+ path: viewer/task2/year_2019.parquet
160
  - split: year_2020
161
+ path: viewer/task2/year_2020.parquet
162
  - split: year_2021
163
+ path: viewer/task2/year_2021.parquet
164
  - split: year_2022
165
+ path: viewer/task2/year_2022.parquet
166
  - split: year_2023
167
+ path: viewer/task2/year_2023.parquet
168
  - split: year_2024
169
+ path: viewer/task2/year_2024.parquet
170
  - split: year_2025
171
+ path: viewer/task2/year_2025.parquet
172
  - split: year_2026
173
+ path: viewer/task2/year_2026.parquet
174
  - config_name: task3
175
  data_files:
176
  - split: year_2025
177
+ path: viewer/task3/year_2025.parquet
178
  - split: year_2026
179
+ path: viewer/task3/year_2026.parquet
180
  ---
181
 
182
  # Annulus Economic Benchmark
 
206
 
207
  Five topics were replaced only in September 2026 to use available published outcomes while preserving the regional counts: Japan CPI → Japan long-term government bond yield; UK CPI → UK long-term government bond yield; South Africa CPI → Kenya policy rate; Morocco CPI → Nigeria policy rate; and Algeria CPI → Ghana policy rate. These substitutions are recorded in the release metadata and should be considered when comparing September with earlier months.
208
 
209
+ ## Two-column evaluation table
210
 
211
+ Select **Subset** (`task1`, `task2`, or `task3`), then **Split** (`year_YYYY`). Every displayed row has exactly two top-level columns:
212
 
213
+ | Column | Content | Use |
214
+ | --- | --- | --- |
215
+ | `input` | The complete prompt as a plain text string, including instructions, the question and labelled options. | Pass this string directly to the model. |
216
+ | `gold` | The reference answer for that same row. | Read only for offline scoring. |
217
+
218
+ Task 1's `gold` is an object with the existing `inside` and `outside` option letters. Select the condition according to your boundary-evaluation protocol; the release does not guess a model-specific knowledge boundary from a date. Task 2's `gold` is the correct trajectory option letter. Task 3's `gold` is the observed outcome's option letter; its input still requests a probability distribution and a reason. The mapping from option letters to directions is retained in each input, so a particular letter must not be assumed always to mean an increase or decrease.
219
+
220
+ Task 1 and Task 2 span `year_1990` through `year_2026`. Task 3 has `year_2025` and `year_2026`. The month remains written in each monthly question. Year splits organize evaluation items by target year, not training/validation partitions.
221
 
222
  ## Validation and limitations
223
 
 
227
 
228
  The dataset provides prompts, outcomes, and provenance for evaluation. This release does not include model-evaluation results or establish a model’s actual knowledge state from calendar dates alone.
229
 
230
+ ## Loading and running
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
231
 
232
  ```python
233
+ from datasets import load_dataset
 
 
 
 
 
 
234
 
235
+ ds = load_dataset(
236
+ "lfqian/Annulus-Economic-Benchmark",
237
+ "task1",
238
+ split="year_1990",
239
+ token=False,
240
+ )
241
 
242
+ row = ds[0]
243
+ prompt = row["input"] # Plain text: pass this directly to your model.
244
+ gold = row["gold"] # Keep separate for offline scoring.
245
  ```
246
 
247
+ The input text, option order and answers are unchanged from the source-derived release. The two-column projection contains all 26,460 benchmark questions.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
248
 
249
+ ## Auxiliary files
250
 
251
+ The full annotation tables under `data/{task}/year_YYYY.parquet` retain IDs, metadata and source evidence. The corresponding `viewer/{task}/year_YYYY.parquet` tables contain only `input` and `gold`, in exactly the same row order.
252
 
253
+ The optional `evaluation/{task}/{year}/input.jsonl` and `gold.jsonl` pairs retain IDs for batch runners that join results by ID. The `data/facts` and `model_inputs` folders retain the underlying fact records and prompt-only copies. These auxiliary files are not additional tasks, Dataset Viewer configurations, or benchmark questions.
254
 
255
+ `metadata/release.json` records counts, year splits, regional quotas, topic substitutions, validation status and the hashes of numerical audit reports. `metadata/alignments.jsonl` connects tasks by object and target period. `metadata/evaluation_pairs.json` lists the optional JSONL pairs. `metadata/panels.json` describes the sources, and `metadata/checksums.json` binds the public files. See [source notices](SOURCE_NOTICES.md) for attribution and reuse status.