Datasets:
Show exactly input and gold columns for every task and year
Browse files
README.md
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default: true
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data_files:
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- split: year_1990
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path:
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- split: year_1991
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- split: year_2018
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- split: year_2019
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- split: year_2020
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- split: year_2021
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- split: year_2025
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- split: year_2026
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- config_name: task2
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data_files:
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- split: year_1990
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path:
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- split: year_1991
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- split: year_1992
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- split: year_1993
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- split: year_1994
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- split: year_1995
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- split: year_1996
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- split: year_1997
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- split: year_1998
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- split: year_1999
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- split: year_2000
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- split: year_2019
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- split: year_2026
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- config_name: task3
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data_files:
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- split: year_2025
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path:
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---
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# Annulus Economic Benchmark
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Five topics were replaced only in September 2026 to use available published outcomes while preserving the regional counts: Japan CPI → Japan long-term government bond yield; UK CPI → UK long-term government bond yield; South Africa CPI → Kenya policy rate; Morocco CPI → Nigeria policy rate; and Algeria CPI → Ghana policy rate. These substitutions are recorded in the release metadata and should be considered when comparing September with earlier months.
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##
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## Validation and limitations
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The dataset provides prompts, outcomes, and provenance for evaluation. This release does not include model-evaluation results or establish a model’s actual knowledge state from calendar dates alone.
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##
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Use the separate JSONL pair for each task and target year to run inference and score predictions:
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```text
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evaluation/task1/1990/input.jsonl
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evaluation/task1/1990/gold.jsonl
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evaluation/task2/1990/input.jsonl
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evaluation/task2/1990/gold.jsonl
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evaluation/task3/2026/input.jsonl
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evaluation/task3/2026/gold.jsonl
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```
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Every `input.jsonl` row has only `id` and `messages`. Send only `messages` to the model; keep `id` in the client so its output can be joined to gold. The corresponding `gold.jsonl` has the same IDs in the same order, with offline answer keys and scoring metadata. Never include a gold row in a model request. The 76 task/year partitions contain 26,460 inputs and 26,460 corresponding gold records; these are separate views of the existing questions, not new questions. The complete file list and counts are in `metadata/evaluation_pairs.json`.
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Task 1 gold retains `mode`, the option-letter-to-behavior mapping, and `gold_by_boundary` with `inside` and `outside` option letters. Choose the condition using your evaluation protocol; the files do not infer an individual model's knowledge from a calendar date. Task 2 uses `gold_label` for the correct trajectory option. Task 3 uses `gold_label` for the observed outcome and retains the original `choices`, `status`, `target_month` and `topic_id` needed for probability scoring.
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Task 1 and Task 2 model responses are option letters. Task 3 responses contain `probabilities` for the actual option letters and a nonempty `reason`; preserve these probabilities rather than keeping only their maximum. The client should attach the input's `id` when saving responses. There is no single reference reasoning text in gold.
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Download one input/gold pair:
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```python
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import
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from huggingface_hub import hf_hub_download
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repo_id = "lfqian/Annulus-Economic-Benchmark"
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prefix = "evaluation/task1/1990"
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input_path = hf_hub_download(repo_id, f"{prefix}/input.jsonl", repo_type="dataset")
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gold_path = hf_hub_download(repo_id, f"{prefix}/gold.jsonl", repo_type="dataset")
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```
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```python
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from datasets import load_dataset
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questions_1990 = load_dataset("lfqian/Annulus-Economic-Benchmark", "task1", split="year_1990")
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forecasts_2026 = load_dataset("lfqian/Annulus-Economic-Benchmark", "task3", split="year_2026")
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september_2026 = forecasts_2026.filter(lambda x: x["period"] == "2026-09")
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```
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The
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`metadata/release.json` records
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default: true
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data_files:
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- split: year_1990
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path: viewer/task1/year_1990.parquet
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- split: year_1991
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path: viewer/task1/year_1991.parquet
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- split: year_1992
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path: viewer/task1/year_1992.parquet
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- split: year_1993
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path: viewer/task1/year_1993.parquet
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- split: year_1994
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path: viewer/task1/year_1994.parquet
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- split: year_1995
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path: viewer/task1/year_1995.parquet
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- split: year_1996
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path: viewer/task1/year_1996.parquet
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- split: year_1997
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path: viewer/task1/year_1997.parquet
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- split: year_1998
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path: viewer/task1/year_1998.parquet
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- split: year_1999
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path: viewer/task1/year_1999.parquet
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- split: year_2000
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path: viewer/task1/year_2000.parquet
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- split: year_2001
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path: viewer/task1/year_2001.parquet
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- split: year_2002
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path: viewer/task1/year_2002.parquet
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- split: year_2003
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path: viewer/task1/year_2003.parquet
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- split: year_2004
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path: viewer/task1/year_2004.parquet
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- split: year_2005
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path: viewer/task1/year_2005.parquet
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- split: year_2006
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path: viewer/task1/year_2006.parquet
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- split: year_2007
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path: viewer/task1/year_2007.parquet
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- split: year_2008
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path: viewer/task1/year_2008.parquet
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- split: year_2009
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path: viewer/task1/year_2009.parquet
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- split: year_2010
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path: viewer/task1/year_2010.parquet
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- split: year_2011
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path: viewer/task1/year_2011.parquet
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- split: year_2012
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path: viewer/task1/year_2012.parquet
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- split: year_2013
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path: viewer/task1/year_2013.parquet
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- split: year_2014
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path: viewer/task1/year_2014.parquet
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- split: year_2015
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path: viewer/task1/year_2015.parquet
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- split: year_2016
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path: viewer/task1/year_2016.parquet
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- split: year_2017
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path: viewer/task1/year_2017.parquet
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- split: year_2018
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path: viewer/task1/year_2018.parquet
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- split: year_2019
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path: viewer/task1/year_2019.parquet
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- split: year_2020
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path: viewer/task1/year_2020.parquet
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- split: year_2021
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path: viewer/task1/year_2021.parquet
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- split: year_2022
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path: viewer/task1/year_2022.parquet
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- split: year_2023
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path: viewer/task1/year_2023.parquet
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- split: year_2024
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path: viewer/task1/year_2024.parquet
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- split: year_2025
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path: viewer/task1/year_2025.parquet
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- split: year_2026
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path: viewer/task1/year_2026.parquet
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- config_name: task2
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data_files:
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- split: year_1990
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path: viewer/task2/year_1990.parquet
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- split: year_1991
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path: viewer/task2/year_1991.parquet
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- split: year_1992
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path: viewer/task2/year_1992.parquet
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- split: year_1993
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path: viewer/task2/year_1993.parquet
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- split: year_1994
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path: viewer/task2/year_1994.parquet
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- split: year_1995
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path: viewer/task2/year_1995.parquet
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- split: year_1996
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path: viewer/task2/year_1996.parquet
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- split: year_1997
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path: viewer/task2/year_1997.parquet
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- split: year_1998
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path: viewer/task2/year_1998.parquet
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- split: year_1999
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path: viewer/task2/year_1999.parquet
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- split: year_2000
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path: viewer/task2/year_2000.parquet
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- split: year_2001
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path: viewer/task2/year_2001.parquet
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- split: year_2002
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path: viewer/task2/year_2002.parquet
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- split: year_2003
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path: viewer/task2/year_2003.parquet
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- split: year_2004
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path: viewer/task2/year_2004.parquet
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- split: year_2005
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path: viewer/task2/year_2005.parquet
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- split: year_2006
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path: viewer/task2/year_2006.parquet
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- split: year_2007
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path: viewer/task2/year_2007.parquet
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- split: year_2008
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path: viewer/task2/year_2008.parquet
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- split: year_2009
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path: viewer/task2/year_2009.parquet
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- split: year_2010
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path: viewer/task2/year_2010.parquet
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- split: year_2011
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path: viewer/task2/year_2011.parquet
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- split: year_2012
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path: viewer/task2/year_2012.parquet
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- split: year_2013
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path: viewer/task2/year_2013.parquet
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- split: year_2014
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path: viewer/task2/year_2014.parquet
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- split: year_2015
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path: viewer/task2/year_2015.parquet
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- split: year_2016
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path: viewer/task2/year_2016.parquet
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- split: year_2017
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path: viewer/task2/year_2017.parquet
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- split: year_2018
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path: viewer/task2/year_2018.parquet
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- split: year_2019
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path: viewer/task2/year_2019.parquet
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- split: year_2020
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path: viewer/task2/year_2020.parquet
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- split: year_2021
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path: viewer/task2/year_2021.parquet
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- split: year_2022
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path: viewer/task2/year_2022.parquet
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- split: year_2023
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path: viewer/task2/year_2023.parquet
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- split: year_2024
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path: viewer/task2/year_2024.parquet
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- split: year_2025
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path: viewer/task2/year_2025.parquet
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- split: year_2026
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path: viewer/task2/year_2026.parquet
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- config_name: task3
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data_files:
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- split: year_2025
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path: viewer/task3/year_2025.parquet
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- split: year_2026
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path: viewer/task3/year_2026.parquet
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---
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# Annulus Economic Benchmark
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Five topics were replaced only in September 2026 to use available published outcomes while preserving the regional counts: Japan CPI → Japan long-term government bond yield; UK CPI → UK long-term government bond yield; South Africa CPI → Kenya policy rate; Morocco CPI → Nigeria policy rate; and Algeria CPI → Ghana policy rate. These substitutions are recorded in the release metadata and should be considered when comparing September with earlier months.
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## Two-column evaluation table
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Select **Subset** (`task1`, `task2`, or `task3`), then **Split** (`year_YYYY`). Every displayed row has exactly two top-level columns:
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| Column | Content | Use |
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| --- | --- | --- |
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| `input` | The complete prompt as a plain text string, including instructions, the question and labelled options. | Pass this string directly to the model. |
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| `gold` | The reference answer for that same row. | Read only for offline scoring. |
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Task 1's `gold` is an object with the existing `inside` and `outside` option letters. Select the condition according to your boundary-evaluation protocol; the release does not guess a model-specific knowledge boundary from a date. Task 2's `gold` is the correct trajectory option letter. Task 3's `gold` is the observed outcome's option letter; its input still requests a probability distribution and a reason. The mapping from option letters to directions is retained in each input, so a particular letter must not be assumed always to mean an increase or decrease.
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Task 1 and Task 2 span `year_1990` through `year_2026`. Task 3 has `year_2025` and `year_2026`. The month remains written in each monthly question. Year splits organize evaluation items by target year, not training/validation partitions.
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## Validation and limitations
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The dataset provides prompts, outcomes, and provenance for evaluation. This release does not include model-evaluation results or establish a model’s actual knowledge state from calendar dates alone.
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## Loading and running
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```python
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from datasets import load_dataset
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ds = load_dataset(
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"lfqian/Annulus-Economic-Benchmark",
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"task1",
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split="year_1990",
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token=False,
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)
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row = ds[0]
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prompt = row["input"] # Plain text: pass this directly to your model.
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gold = row["gold"] # Keep separate for offline scoring.
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```
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The input text, option order and answers are unchanged from the source-derived release. The two-column projection contains all 26,460 benchmark questions.
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## Auxiliary files
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The full annotation tables under `data/{task}/year_YYYY.parquet` retain IDs, metadata and source evidence. The corresponding `viewer/{task}/year_YYYY.parquet` tables contain only `input` and `gold`, in exactly the same row order.
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The optional `evaluation/{task}/{year}/input.jsonl` and `gold.jsonl` pairs retain IDs for batch runners that join results by ID. The `data/facts` and `model_inputs` folders retain the underlying fact records and prompt-only copies. These auxiliary files are not additional tasks, Dataset Viewer configurations, or benchmark questions.
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`metadata/release.json` records counts, year splits, regional quotas, topic substitutions, validation status and the hashes of numerical audit reports. `metadata/alignments.jsonl` connects tasks by object and target period. `metadata/evaluation_pairs.json` lists the optional JSONL pairs. `metadata/panels.json` describes the sources, and `metadata/checksums.json` binds the public files. See [source notices](SOURCE_NOTICES.md) for attribution and reuse status.
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