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The primary aim of our paper is to provide a method for constructing uniformly valid inference and confidence bands in sparse high-dimensional models in the sieve framework. <|MaskedSetence|> The double machine learning approach (Belloni et al., 2014b; Chernozhukov et al., 2018) offers a general framework for unifo...
**A**: In doing so, we contribute to the growing literature on high-dimensional inference in additive models, especially that on debiased/double machine learning. **B**: For a survey on post-selection inference in high-dimensional settings and its generalizations, we refer to Chernozhukov et al. **C**: (2014) and Zha...
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4 Application: Functional Global Sensitivity Analysis of an ensemble of Climate Economy Models For this paper we focus on \chCO2 emissions as the main output of an ensemble of coupled climate-economy-energy models. Each model-scenario produces a vector of \chCO2 emissions defined from the year 2010 to 2090 at 10-years...
**A**: We use the scenarios developed in [17] which involve five models (IMAGE, IMACLIM, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM, TIAM-UCL and WITCH-GLOBIOM) that provide output data until the end of the interval T𝑇Titalic_T. . **B**: This discretization of the output space is in any case arbitrary, since \chCO2 emissions do exist in every...
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<|MaskedSetence|> But they only allow for binary states and binary actions. They introduce the condition of expanding observations, explaining that this property of the network is necessary for learning. They establish that it is also sufficient for learning with unbounded beliefs. <|MaskedSetence|> <|MaskedSetence|...
**A**: Lobel and Sadler (2015) introduce a notion of “information diffusion” and use the improvement principle to establish information diffusion even when learning fails. . **B**: Building on Banerjee and Fudenberg (2004), a key contribution of Acemoglu, Dahleh, Lobel, and Ozdaglar (2011) is to use a welfare improvem...
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<|MaskedSetence|> The data cover (essentially) all funding proposals for such evaluations submitted to the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL) from 2009 to 2021. J-PAL is the leading funder and facilitator of experimental economic research in low-income countries, and funds projects that are typically design...
**A**: In Appendix A, we study one case in which it is arguably feasible, using unique data on the costs of conducting experimental program evaluations that we obtained for this purpose. **B**: As we discuss in more detail in Appendix A, the characteristics of these projects thus align fairly closely with the assumpt...
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This paper is the first to define truncation-invariance and truncation-proofness, but not the first to define truncation strategies or to weaken strategy-proofness. Truncation strategies were first defined in Chen (2017) and the author used it to define rank monotonicity. Originating from Mongell and Roth (1991), there...
**A**: (2002)). **B**: (1982), Gilovich et al. **C**: Non-obvious manipulability is a weaker requirement than strategy-proofness in the sense of payoff comparison.
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For other types of outcome variables (continuous outcomes in linear models, binary and multinomial outcomes), results for regression models with fixed effects and lagged dependent variables are already available. Such results are of great importance for applied practice, as they allow researchers to distinguish unobser...
**A**: Therefore, a new approach is needed. **B**: As a result, one cannot directly appeal to a sufficient statistic approach. **C**: Our approach is closely related to Honoré and Weidner (2020), and can be seen as the extension of their method to the case of an ordered response variable..
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5 Conclusion Endogeneity is a common threat to causal identification in econometric models. Reverse causality is one source of such endogeneity. We build on work by \textcitehoyer09anm,mooijetal16 who have shown that the causal direction between two variables X𝑋Xitalic_X and Y𝑌Yitalic_Y is identifiable in models wi...
**A**: them and, thus, provide a heteroskedasticity-robust method to test for reverse causality. **B**: We extend their results by allowing for additional control covariates W𝑊Witalic_W and heteroskedasticity w.r.t. **C**: In addition, we show how this test can be extended to a bivariate causal discovery algorithm b...
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<|MaskedSetence|> This final figure surpasses Britain’s total crop and pasture land combined. <|MaskedSetence|> If we add cotton, sugar, and timber circa 1830, we have somewhere between 25,000,000 and 30,000,000 ghost acres, exceeding even the contribution of coal by a healthy margin. (p. <|MaskedSetence|>
**A**: …[R]aising enough sheep to replace the yarn made with Britain’s New World cotton imports by would have required staggering quantities of land: almost 9,000,000 acres in 1815, using ratios from model farms, and over 23,000,000 acres in 1830. **B**: It also surpasses Anthony Wrigley’s estimate that matching the ...
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There is a large literature in behavioral and experimental economics that points toward the importance of various behavioral traits and heterogeneous characteristics of trust and reciprocity in sharing behavior. <|MaskedSetence|> (1997); Fehr and Gächter (1998, 2000); Camerer (2003); Cox (2004) have leveraged experime...
**A**: Our counterfactual findings involving trust agree with these findings; through the way that trust interacts with preferences for reciprocity and altruism, promoting trust in the community dramatically improves outcomes when subjects are provided with detailed information about others’ behavior. **B**: Throughou...
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Non-Business day. <|MaskedSetence|> Again we note that for the TFM-tucker model, one needs to identify a proper representation of the loading space in order to interpret the model. <|MaskedSetence|> <|MaskedSetence|> Interpretation is impossible for the vector factor model in such a high dimensional case. .
**A**: For TFM-cp, the model is unique hence interpretation can be made directly. **B**: Values are in percentage. We remark that this example is just for illustration and showcasing the interpretation of the proposed tensor factor model. **C**: In Chen et al., (2022), varimax rotation was used to find the most spa...
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In Section 3, we study how specific properties of choice rules tend to lead to contextual privacy violations. <|MaskedSetence|> These abstract characterizations lead us to a more intuitive insight, Theorem 1, which says that under the restriction to individual elicitation protocols, any time there is some group of age...
**A**: This result has been used to show that the second-price auction does not permit a decentralized computation protocol (Brandt and Sandholm, 2005) that satisfies unconditional privacy, compare Chor and Kushilevitz (1989) and Milgrom and Segal (2020). **B**: In our first results, Proposition 1 and Proposition 2, w...
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<|MaskedSetence|> The partial equilibrium theory has a foundation in general equilibrium theory, where there are only two types of goods, numeraire good and traded good, and consumers’ utility functions must be quasi-linear. In the partial equilibrium model, it is easy to show by drawing a diagram that there is only o...
**A**: This is related to the inherent difficulty of quasi-linear economies: see our discussion in subsection 3.1.. **B**: In other words, in a quasi-linear economy with two commodities, it is expected that the equilibrium price is unique, and is globally stable with respect to the tâtonnement process. The purpose o...
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<|MaskedSetence|> <|MaskedSetence|> For example, in Hosoya (2017), convergence with respect to a uniform topology in the space of utility function could only be proved if the C1superscript𝐶1C^{1}italic_C start_POSTSUPERSCRIPT 1 end_POSTSUPERSCRIPT topology is equipped in the space of demand functions. In Theorem 3, ...
**A**: Previous results in this context have usually required a stronger topology in the space of demand functions to prove convergence in some topology of the space of utility functions. **B**: If the shapes of utility functions are specified for some set of weak orders, then in most cases, the compact convergence of...
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<|MaskedSetence|> <|MaskedSetence|> <|MaskedSetence|> A guide for practical implementation of the computational procedure outlined in section 1.2 is given in appendix A. We refer to inequality displayed by our measure as overall inequality, while specific marginal inequality is described as wealth or income inequali...
**A**: Details of the sampling technique and a discussion of specific features and issues with the data set are given in appendix B. **B**: In this section, we apply our methodology to the analysis of income-wealth inequality in the United States between 1989 and 2022, based on the public version of the triennial Surv...
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<|MaskedSetence|> (2009) demonstrates that between 1986-2003, the 75th percentile math SAT score of accepted students at the top 20 public universities, top 20 private colleges, and top 20 liberal arts colleges, steadily trended upward. <|MaskedSetence|> Different selection criteria may induce different equilibrium t...
**A**: A selection criterion that induces a high acceptance threshold may not necessarily yield high value for the college. . **B**: In our model, the equilibrium acceptance threshold depends on students’ strategic behavior and the decision maker’s capacity constraint and selection criterion. **C**: This example a...
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<|MaskedSetence|> (2023). These papers are designed as methods for inference for parameters defined via linear models or estimating equations rather than parameters like our equally-weighted or size-weighed cluster-level average treatment effects that are defined explicitly in terms of potential outcomes. Importantly,...
**A**: We then propose in Section 3 estimators for each of these two quantities and develop the requisite distributional approximations to use them for inference about each quantity. **B**: Finally, none of these papers seem to explicitly consider the additional complications stemming from sampling only a subset of th...
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2.2 Challenges for inventory modelling from retailing practice To account for the characteristics of practical problems, several extensions of basic inventory models have been proposed. One crucial matter is the choice of an appropriate probability distribution used for representing random demand as observed by the re...
**A**: Ulrich et al., (2022), e.g., based on their real-world e-grocery retailing data, demonstrate the importance of a case-specific estimation of the demand distribution. **B**: Especially, the combination of high service level requirements and more complex demand patterns commonly observed in e-grocery retailing fa...
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For analytical tractability, we focus on the case where researchers use one-sided tests in this section, for a limited number of options for p𝑝pitalic_p-hacking. <|MaskedSetence|> <|MaskedSetence|> <|MaskedSetence|> We present these results in Appendix A. Appendix B presents derivations underlying all analytical r...
**A**: In the simulation study in Section 5, we consider generalizations of these analytical examples for two-sided tests, and we also show results for one-sided tests. In addition to analyzing the effects of p𝑝pitalic_p-hacking on the shape of the p𝑝pitalic_p-curve, we study its implications for the bias of the es...
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<|MaskedSetence|> A 1 pp. rise in external debt causes, on average, a 0.5% increase in GHG emissions. In exploring a possible mechanism of action, we find that external debt is negatively related to an indicator of policies associated with environmental sustainability. <|MaskedSetence|> <|MaskedSetence|> On the cont...
**A**: This may suggest that when external debt increases, governments are less able to enforce environmental regulations because their main priority is to increase the tax base or because they are captured by the private sector and prevented from tightening such regulations, and therefore could explain the positive as...
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In this paper, we draw on new advances in the time series forecasting literature to improve the accuracy of the imputations employed for causal inference in panel data settings. Over the past few years, the forecasting literature has proposed a number of deep neural architectures that have significantly improved pred...
**A**: We overcome this limitation by incorporating the time series of outcomes for control units into the forecasting model for the treated unit as additional features. **B**: For causal inference with panel data, this is an important limitation because single-unit time series models do not incorporate information fr...
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<|MaskedSetence|> (2014) and its time series extension in Adamek et al. (2022b). The latter has recently been empirically investigated in the context of LP estimation with instrumental variables (LP-IV) in contemporaneous work by Karapanagioti (2021). Their approach not only differs in the focus on IV models, but they...
**A**: Such a setting is of more general relevance for treatment effect models consisting of a small number of variables whose effects are of interest combined with a large set of controls. **B**: Instead, we tailor the approach of Adamek et al. **C**: We develop HDLP inference based on the desparsified lasso of van...
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1.1 Related work Anchoring in decision-making was first proposed by Paul Slovic in researching how people evaluate the risk of gambling (Slovic (1967)). <|MaskedSetence|> <|MaskedSetence|> <|MaskedSetence|> Similar prior anchoring questions have been found to influence the certainty equivalent for a gamble (Johnson...
**A**: Subsequent research has expanded the literature on the anchoring effect, replicating it across a wide variety of contexts. **B**: In a pioneering study, Tversky and Kahneman spun a wheel of fortune in front of participants and asked them to consider whether the number of African countries in the United Nations ...
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We presented a new solution concept for sequential imperfect-information games called observable perfect equilibrium that captures the assumption that all players are playing as rationally as possible given the fact that some players have taken observable suboptimal actions. We believe that this is more compelling tha...
**A**: While we only considered a simplified game called the no-limit clairvoyance game, this game encodes several elements of the complexity of full no-limit Texas hold ’em, and in fact conclusions from this game have been incorporated into some of the strongest agents for no-limit Texas hold ’em. **B**: We also show...
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In the model, the receiver cannot implement transfers or choose the senders’ payoff structure.171717Mechanisms that involve transfers are inefficient because, compared to the outcome under complete information, at least one player incurs a cost when participating in a transfer. Even if the receiver could affect the se...
**A**: The receiver’s need to aggregate information from imperfectly informed agents typically makes protocols with a higher number of senders more appealing. **B**: The receiver cannot take informed decisions when even senders do not know the best course of action. **C**: Importantly, these two last model variants p...
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<|MaskedSetence|> First, our approach excludes drugs developed by large pharmaceutical firms with a market valuation above the 95th percentile of the firm size distribution. <|MaskedSetence|> To relax this assumption, we could consider large firms separately and keep track of announcements about acquired drugs. Sec...
**A**: Our estimates suggest several important areas for future research. **B**: To the extent that these firms develop different types of drugs, our approach fails to capture those drugs. **C**: For instance, if two firms are developing competitive drugs, the impact of one firm’s announcement on the market value of...
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<|MaskedSetence|> In the present work, production of knowledge affects the firms’ capacity to innovate, which in turn allows the production of higher quality manufactured varieties in a region. The chance of successful innovations depends on the spatial distribution of mobile agents in the economy. Therefore, it is as...
**A**: We thus avoid the explicit use of dynamics for the innovation process. **B**: We assume further that the increasing complexity of each variety is offset by the available regional quality levels (cf. **C**: We combine the typical pecuniary externalities in geographical economics (Krugman, 1991b, ; Fujita et al....
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4 Security Design with Limited Liability In this second class of applications, we show how monotone function intervals pertain to security design with limited liability. <|MaskedSetence|> Monotone function intervals embed two widely adopted economic assumptions in the security design literature. <|MaskedSetence|> ...
**A**: To do so, we revisit the environments of two seminal papers in the literature: Innes (1990), which has moral hazard, and DeMarzo and Duffie (1999), which has adverse selection.. **B**: In security design problems, a security issuer designs a security that specifies how the return of an asset is divided between ...
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We introduce EW-ESRI, a network-based measure, to estimate firms’ systemic economic relevance in terms of employment. <|MaskedSetence|> We apply this measure to every firm in Hungary’s economy using value-added tax (VAT) data to reconstruct the firm-level production network. <|MaskedSetence|> <|MaskedSetence|> They ...
**A**: We link this measure of systemic relevance to data on CO2 emissions of Hungary’s largest emitting firms and identify firms with high emissions and low systemic relevance as decarbonization leverage points. This allows us to simulate and compare different decarbonization strategies to understand EW-ESRI’s usefu...
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To conclude, the numerical results have shown that the “low” value of the carbon tax presented in Table 3 is efficient enough as the further increase of its value does not lead to an improvement in any of the output factors. Nevertheless, in case GenCos possess a “low” GEB, considering “low” values for TEB and an ince...
**A**: The results show an increase (compared to the baseline) of VRE share, welfare and generation amount that is higher by about 2.7%, 7.3% and 17.8%, respectively, than in the case with all (but the GEB) input parameters being at the “low” value. **B**: Such an approach leads to an increase (compared to the baselin...
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A central result in the literature on strategy-proofness is the impossibility of Gibbard (1973) and Satterthwaite (1975), which states that any strategy-proof rule on the universal preference domain with more than two alternatives in its range is dictatorial. <|MaskedSetence|> <|MaskedSetence|> In our general approac...
**A**: Therefore, to construct non-dictatorial social choice rules that induce truth-telling, one has to restrict either the range of the rules to two alternatives or the domain of admissible preferences. **B**: Furthermore, the type of preference of each agent (single-peaked or single-dipped) is commonly known but th...
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<|MaskedSetence|> In such cases, the first-step estimator can only identify and consistently estimate the impact of non-Gaussian shocks. <|MaskedSetence|> <|MaskedSetence|> In this case, the second term of the adaptive weights leads to an increase in the weights of the restrictions corresponding to Gaussian shocks. ...
**A**: The remaining Gaussian shocks are only identified up to a rotation of the Gaussian shocks. **B**: Therefore, if there are more than two Gaussian shocks, the first-step estimator cannot provide evidence against restrictions on the impact of the Gaussian shocks. **C**: The introduction of the second term, which ...
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5.2 Privacy and Data We now assess the impact of privacy regulation by considering policies that limit the firms’ access to the consumers’ information. <|MaskedSetence|> Under this policy, the platform in our model informs the firms about the consumer’s ranking of their products, without disclosing the consumer’s exa...
**A**: In this Section, we focus on exogenous restrictions on information disclosure. **B**: Specifically, we consider cohort-based privacy, which is a restriction in line with the recent Google Privacy Sandbox proposals to replace third-party cookies. **C**: See Ali.
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<|MaskedSetence|> <|MaskedSetence|> Therefore, studies have looked at the technical processes that are involved in fertilizer production. For example, we know that about 90% of processed mined phosphate is used in a chemical wet process and mostly converted to phosphoric acid, out of which about 82% is used to make f...
**A**: Hence, when one compares the figures of phosphate rock mining and P fertilizer use (and averages these over a few years) one can come to the conclusion that about 70% of mined phosphate rock (in the following abbreviated as PR) ends up as fertilizer. **B**: via phosphorus compounds, see also][]shinh is handled ...
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Given a market, the question that arises is what are the rules that induce a matching game that allows us to implement stable matchings in Nash equilibrium. <|MaskedSetence|> We show that any stable rule implements, in Nash equilibrium, the individually rational matchings. Second, to implement stable matchings, we foc...
**A**: First, we study a matching game in which the players are all the agents. **B**: In these cases, individuals (students or workers) are expected to manipulate their preference lists to their advantage. **C**: In some markets, such as school choice or labor markets, institutions are legally required to declare th...
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In the analysis, we use the following two definitions of homeownership. <|MaskedSetence|> With this comprehensive homeownership definition, about 70% of individuals in our sample are homeowners (vs 40% if we consider only individuals with a positive open mortgage amount). <|MaskedSetence|> In this second case, we de...
**A**: from 2004 onwards) have been dropped. **B**: First, we consider an individual as a homeowner if either she ever had a mortgage or she is recorded as a homeowner according to Experian’s imputation. **C**: Second, in an alternative definition of homeownership, we consider the origination of new mortgages.
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<|MaskedSetence|> <|MaskedSetence|> The design of dedicated algorithms for specific problems that exploit the combinatorial structure of the problem at hand is an interesting research direction. Efficient algorithms to compute the maximin distribution have been proposed, for example, by Li et al. (2014) for kidney ex...
**A**: First, our paper focuses on developing general-purpose algorithms that can be applied to a wide class of integer linear programs. **B**: We identify three major directions for future research. **C**: An interesting analysis of the combinatorial structure of fair distribution rules is the recent work by Hojny ...
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While the standard search for Dragon Kings involves performing a linear fit of the tails of the distribution pisarenko2012robust ; janczura2012black , here we tried to broaden our analysis by also fitting the entire distribution using mGB (7) and GB2 (11) – the two members of the Generalized Beta family of distributio...
**A**: GB2, on the other hand, has a power-law tail that extends mGB’s power-law dependence to infinity. The key to understanding the results of fits in Sec. **B**: At its core is the average of the consecutive daily realized variances (2). **C**: 4 is the analysis of the structure of RV used by the markets – a squ...
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<|MaskedSetence|> for different choices of “true” value distributions and pricing rules. Each table corresponds to a different “true” value distribution. Within each table, each row corresponds to a “true” pricing rule, and each column to the pricing rule used in the inference procedure—henceforth, the “hypothesized” ...
**A**: This is a useful consistency check for our learning approach. . **B**: Tables 9, 10 and 11 report the Mean Absolute Error (MAE)111111We compute this as the arithmetic average of the absolute difference between predicted and actual value for each quantile. **C**: When there is a pricing mismatch, however, the e...
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Some other papers consider specific forms of externalities. Akcigit & Liu (2016) considers a model with two research lines that are monopolizable, but only one line is risky and can bring bad news. <|MaskedSetence|> In contrast, this paper considers just one research line but with arbitrary payoffs (allowing for imper...
**A**: In contrast, this paper assumes that externalities only arise after a breakthrough, rather than from agents competing on the safe arm. The results that focus on contractible information relate to strategic experimentation papers that consider the role of the observability of breakthroughs, payoffs, and actions...
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There are in total three treatments. Treatment 1 (T1subscript𝑇1T_{1}italic_T start_POSTSUBSCRIPT 1 end_POSTSUBSCRIPT) was designed to test Hypothesis 1. In that treatment, participants received a sample of past decisions of length equal to two (they would receive information on what the combined contribution of the im...
**A**: 2013; Katuščák and Miklánek 2023), while previous studies found no statistical differences in subjects’ responses between the strategy and the direct response method (see Brandts and Charness 2000; Brandts and Charness 2011, or Keser and Kliemt 2021 for a discussion). **B**: In particular, at the end of the exp...
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Our work is closely related to recent work on delegation in financial decision making. Apesteguia et al. <|MaskedSetence|> They show that a substantial fraction of investors does so by either directly copying previously successful investors by the click of a button or manually implementing investment strategies which...
**A**: (2020), like the present paper, report an experiment where investors may decide to delegate financial decisions to their peers. **B**: (2020) by varying the complexity of the underlying task and the information investors receive about the experts. **C**: (1999), Offerman et al.
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In our third application, we study treatment effects with an instrument that fails the exclusion restriction. When the instrument is allowed to affect the outcome directly, we consider estimation of a generic weighted average of local average treatment effects (LATEs) across instrument values. In the continuous outcome...
**A**: We find that a plug-in boostrap approach. **B**: We study estimation of APO bounds under Masten and Poirier’s conditional c-dependence model, which restricts the difference between observed and true propensities to be at most c𝑐citalic_c. **C**: We implement a simple plug-in estimator and percentile bootstrap...
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If agents are cognitively limited, then NOM is sufficient to describe their strategic behavior. Therefore, the question arises to what extent NOM rules enrich the landscape of strategy-proof rules. We will focus on own-peak-only rules. <|MaskedSetence|> <|MaskedSetence|> Furthermore, the own-peak-only property foll...
**A**: Because of their simplicity, own-peak-only rules are important rules in their own right and are both useful in practice and extensively studied in the literature. **B**: However, since we do not impose strategy-proofness, we explicitly invoke it here. . **C**: This means that the sole information collected by...
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