robench-2024b
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Therefore, (3.1) obviously holds if we use the estimator θ^0,lsubscript^𝜃0𝑙\hat{\theta}_{0,l}over^ start_ARG italic_θ end_ARG start_POSTSUBSCRIPT 0 , italic_l end_POSTSUBSCRIPT. We consider the representation in (3.1) because we rely on more general results derived in Appendix A to analyze the theoretical properties ... | where the envelope F1:=F1,1(1)F1,1(2)∨F1,2assignsubscript𝐹1superscriptsubscript𝐹111superscriptsubscript𝐹112subscript𝐹12F_{1}:=F_{1,1}^{(1)}F_{1,1}^{(2)}\vee F_{1,2}italic_F start_POSTSUBSCRIPT 1 end_POSTSUBSCRIPT := italic_F start_POSTSUBSCRIPT 1 , 1 end_POSTSUBSCRIPT start_POSTSUPERSCRIPT ( 1 ) end_POSTSUPERSCRIP... | Lastly, the target function f1(⋅)subscript𝑓1⋅f_{1}(\cdot)italic_f start_POSTSUBSCRIPT 1 end_POSTSUBSCRIPT ( ⋅ ) can be estimated by | f1(⋅)≈θ0Tg(⋅)=∑l=1d1θ0,lgl(⋅)subscript𝑓1⋅superscriptsubscript𝜃0𝑇𝑔⋅superscriptsubscript𝑙1subscript𝑑1subscript𝜃0𝑙subscript𝑔𝑙⋅\displaystyle f_{1}(\cdot)\approx\theta_{0}^{T}g(\cdot)=\sum\limits_{l=1}^{d_{% | f1(⋅)≈θ0Tg(⋅)subscript𝑓1⋅superscriptsubscript𝜃0𝑇𝑔⋅f_{1}(\cdot)\approx\theta_{0}^{T}g(\cdot)italic_f start_POSTSUBSCRIPT 1 end_POSTSUBSCRIPT ( ⋅ ) ≈ italic_θ start_POSTSUBSCRIPT 0 end_POSTSUBSCRIPT start_POSTSUPERSCRIPT italic_T end_POSTSUPERSCRIPT italic_g ( ⋅ ) | B |
Such extension should be straightforward, in fact the flexibility of the interval-wise testing approach, and its subsequent extensions to a dependent data setting [39] and functional surfaces/volumes [15, see e.g.], allow to solve many inferential problems in geostatistical modelling, such as the ones discussed in the ... | Methodologies for GSA that are able to deal with functional outputs are present in the literature: [14] propose non-time-varying sensitivity indices for models with functional outputs, based on a PCA expansion of the data. This approach is thus not capable of detecting the presence of time variations in impacts, nor do... | Moreover, even if our GSA methodology was born in order to deal with simulation models, one could think about using it as a method to deal with Machine Learning-oriented methods dealing with functional data [37]. Its role in this context would be to provide a simple yet probabilistically sound way to perform significan... | Some fundamental pieces of knowledge are still missing: given a dynamic phenomenon such as the evolution of CO2𝐶subscript𝑂2CO_{2}italic_C italic_O start_POSTSUBSCRIPT 2 end_POSTSUBSCRIPT emissions in time a policymaker is interested if the input of the factor varies across time, and how. Moreover, given the presence... | To our knowledge, there are no methods that deal with GSA of stochastic models with functional or multivariate outputs. Moreover, none of the works related to GSA cited in this paragraph deal with finite changes. For these reasons, to provide methodologies that are able to tackle the applicative questions mentioned abo... | B |
Lastly, our work only addresses Bayesian learning with correctly specified agents. There is a large literature on non-Bayesian social learning, surveyed by Golub and | This paper has studied a general model of sequential social learning on observational networks. Our main theme has been how learning turns jointly on preferences and information when there are multiple states. We close by commenting on certain aspects of our approach. | Sadler (2016). There has also been recent interest in (mis)learning among misspecified Bayesian agents; see, for example, Frick | Lastly, our work only addresses Bayesian learning with correctly specified agents. There is a large literature on non-Bayesian social learning, surveyed by Golub and | belief convergence. Since expanding observations is compatible with the observational network having multiple components, one cannot expect the social belief to converge even in probability.252525Consider an observational network consisting of two disjoint complete subnetworks: every odd agent observes only all odd pre... | B |
While welfare-weighting is not (yet) standard practice, there are recent examples in this vein of researchers constructing indices to reflect the preferences or objectives of stakeholders. Bhatt et al. (2024), for example, calculate an index of crime-related outcomes in which these are weighted by estimates of their so... | Shapiro (2021), who emphasize the role of audience heterogeneity in the process of scientific communication. It also turns out to yield results that are isomorphic to those obtained earlier. We therefore study it first in Section 4.1 before turning to the issue of aggregation in Section 4.2. | To illustrate the quantitative implications of the model we apply it to our running example, regulatory approval by the FDA. Applying the formulae implied by the model to published data on the cost structure of clinical trials, we calculate adjusted critical values that are neither as liberal as unadjusted testing, nor... | Planner payoff. The two components of the planner’s utility each relate to a particular aspect of the regulatory approval process example. The first captures the desire to avoid implementing harmful treatments, as for example under the “do no harm” principle. The second captures the longer-term value of scientific rese... | This section discusses the scope for applying and implementing the framework’s implications (summarized in decision-tree format in Figure 2). Section 5.1 considers our running example, the regulatory approval process, Section 5.2 explores the applicability of our approach to economic research, and Section 5.3 considers... | D |
Given e≡(P,ω)𝑒𝑃𝜔e\equiv(P,\omega)italic_e ≡ ( italic_P , italic_ω ), choose an arbitrary priority profile, and let IA(e)𝐼𝐴𝑒IA(e)italic_I italic_A ( italic_e ) be the allocation defined by the following immediate acceptance algorithm: | Step 1: Each agent applies to his/her favorite object. Each object then accepts the applicant with the highest priority permanently and rejects the other applicants. The agents who are accepted by some objects are removed with their assigned objects. | next priority order. Each agent then tentatively accepts the object that he/she likes best among the new | That is, under the NRM rule, agent 1111 is assigned his/her endowment permanently and the other agents’ assignments are decided by whether agent 1111’s top choice object is his/her endowment or not. | Step t: Each remaining agent applies to his/her tthsuperscript𝑡𝑡ℎt^{th}italic_t start_POSTSUPERSCRIPT italic_t italic_h end_POSTSUPERSCRIPT preferred object. Each remaining object then accepts the applicant with the highest priority permanently and rejects the other applicants. | A |
This paper contributes to the literature on dynamic ordered logit models. We are aware of only one paper that studies a fixed-T𝑇Titalic_T version of this model while allowing for fixed effects. The approach in Muris, Raposo, and Vandoros (2023) builds on methods for dynamic binary choice models in Honoré and Kyriazido... | More broadly, this paper contributes to the literature on fixed-T𝑇Titalic_T identification and estimation in nonlinear panel models with fixed effects (see Honoré 2002, Arellano 2003, and Arellano and Bonhomme 2011 for overviews). The literature contains results for several models adjacent to ours. For example, the st... | Other existing work on dynamic panel models for ordered outcomes uses a random effects approach (Contoyannis, Jones, and Rice 2004, Albarran, Carrasco, and Carro 2019) or requires a large number of time periods for consistency (Carro and Traferri 2014, Fernández-Val, Savchenko, and Vella 2017). An earlier version of Ar... | We are interested in regression models for ordinal outcomes that allow for lagged dependent variables as well as fixed effects. In the model that we propose, the ordered outcome depends on a fixed effect, a lagged dependent variable, regressors, and a logistic error term. We study identification and estimation of the f... | The challenge of accommodating unobserved heterogeneity in nonlinear models is well understood, especially when the researcher also wants to allow for lagged dependent variables. For example, while recent developments (Kitazawa 2021 and Honoré and Weidner 2020) relax these requirements, early work on the dynamic binary... | B |
Following [hoyer09anm], we also demonstrate how our testability result can be applied in empirical practice. Specifically, we show that identification of the causal direction is equivalent to a conditional independence test of covariates and error terms given control variables. We make use of conditional independence t... | We consider two formal applications of our testability result. First, we explore testing for causal direction based on conditional independence. As already indicated in the related literature, achieving exact size control can be challenging within this framework, and we provide a detailed discussion of this issue below... | Following [hoyer09anm], we also demonstrate how our testability result can be applied in empirical practice. Specifically, we show that identification of the causal direction is equivalent to a conditional independence test of covariates and error terms given control variables. We make use of conditional independence t... | Endogeneity is a common threat to causal identification in econometric models. Reverse causality is one source of such endogeneity. We build on work by \textcitehoyer09anm,mooijetal16 who have shown that the causal direction between two variables X𝑋Xitalic_X and Y𝑌Yitalic_Y is identifiable in models with additively s... | Algorithm 2 shows detailed steps of the implementation of the bivariate causal discovery which is motivated by 2. Steps 1 to 4 are the same as in 1. In step 5, we compute the test statistics corresponding to two conditional independence tests: one for model (1) and one for (2). The relative size of the resulting test s... | A |
In Economy 1, the population increases rapidly after t=10𝑡10t=10italic_t = 10 because the constraint on food supply is relieved. After this steep increase, the growth rate declines and almost stops, because households prefer manufacturing goods to raising children. In contrast, the population of Economy 2 grows steadi... | The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: Section 2 introduces the model. Section 3 discusses the analytical properties of the proposed model. | This section analytically investigates the properties of the model, particularly the population dynamics of the Malthusian state and the effect of a sudden increase in land supply. | This section interprets several historical facts addressed in previous studies through the lens of the model. | Compared with these previous studies, this study identifies the exogenous shocks that transform the economy from stagnation to growth based on economic history studies and quantitatively examines the magnitude of the shocks. | C |
The characteristic that we describe as overall reciprocity consists of positive weights on the answers to all of the questions in the reciprocity questionnaire. This includes both questions about positive reciprocity (e.g. “If someone does me a favor, I am prepared to return it”), as well as negative reciprocity (“If s... | Because there are only three trust questions, the first principal component summarizes most of the information from the trust questionnaire. It places positive weight on the question that involves trust and negative weights on two questions that suggest mistrust. Perhaps surprisingly, this measure of trust is associate... | On the other hand, the second component of reciprocity places positive weight on questions involving positive reciprocity and negative weight on questions involving negative reciprocity or punishment. Individuals who align with this characteristic place much lower weight on the actual cost of contributing, suggesting s... | The characteristic that we describe as overall reciprocity consists of positive weights on the answers to all of the questions in the reciprocity questionnaire. This includes both questions about positive reciprocity (e.g. “If someone does me a favor, I am prepared to return it”), as well as negative reciprocity (“If s... | The two principal components of reciprocity—overall reciprocity and positive reciprocity—also explain much of the variation in behavioral patterns. Overall reciprocity, which captures both a taste for positive and negative reciprocity, has a nuanced effect in the two conditions. In the baseline, subjects with a higher ... | B |
We remark that this example is just for illustration and showcasing the interpretation of the proposed tensor factor model. Again we note that for the TFM-tucker model, one needs to identify a proper representation of the loading space in order to interpret the model. In Chen et al., (2022), varimax rotation was used t... | In this paper, we propose a tensor factor model with a low rank CP structure and develop its corresponding estimation procedures. | The rest of the paper is organized as follows. After a brief introduction of the basic notations and preliminaries of tensor analysis in Section 1.1, we introduce a tensor factor model with CP low-rank structure in Section 2. The estimation procedures of the factors and the loading vectors are presented in Section 3. S... | In this paper, we develop a new estimation procedure, named as High-Order Projection Estimators (HOPE), for TFM-cp in (1). | In this paper, we investigate a tensor factor model with a CP type low-rank structure, called TFM-cp. Specifically, let 𝒳tsubscript𝒳𝑡{\cal X}_{t}caligraphic_X start_POSTSUBSCRIPT italic_t end_POSTSUBSCRIPT be an order K𝐾Kitalic_K | A |
(Izmalkov et al., 2005, 2011) seeks implementations that do not rely on trusted mediators, but rather rely on simple technologies that enable verification of what was learned—like sealed envelopes. The construction allows for particular elicitation technologies that allow, e.g., envelopes-inside-envelopes. Although our... | There are two important precursors to contextual privacy in the theory of decentralized computation: unconditional full privacy and perfect implementation. Contextual privacy under the individual elicitation technology parallels the concept of unconditional full privacy for decentralized protocols (Chor and Kushilevitz... | In this paper, we study how mechanism designers can limit the superfluous information they learn. In our set up, when a designer commits to a social choice rule, they also choose a dynamic protocol for eliciting agents’ information (or ?types?). These dynamic protocols allow the designer to learn agents’ private inform... | Beyond unconditional full privacy and perfect implementation lies an extensive literature on privacy preserving protocols for auctions and allocation. The literature on cryptographic protocols for auctions, going back to Nurmi and Salomaa (1993) and Franklin and Reiter (1996) is too vast to summarize here—the main poin... | An elicitation technology represents how the designer can learn about agents’ messages, and by inverting their strategies, their private information. One possible elicitation technology is a ?trusted third party.? If there is a trusted third party, the designer can delegate information retrieval to this third party, an... | C |
The above argument can apply only when yjsuperscript𝑦𝑗y^{j}italic_y start_POSTSUPERSCRIPT italic_j end_POSTSUPERSCRIPT is differentiable at p∗superscript𝑝p^{*}italic_p start_POSTSUPERSCRIPT ∗ end_POSTSUPERSCRIPT. Actually, our Assumption P is too weak and can only prove the continuity of yjsuperscript𝑦𝑗y^{j}italic... | Most studies on the uniqueness of equilibrium do not use primitive assumptions on the economy itself, but rather make assumptions on what is derived from the economy. For example, Arrow et al. (1959) found that if the excess demand function is gross substitute, then the equilibrium price is unique up to normalization. ... | However, in order to perform this approximation properly, it must first be shown that the set of normalized equilibrium prices is discrete. Local stability is crucial in demonstrating this fact. If every equilibrium price is locally stable, the set of normalized equilibrium prices is discrete. Therefore, we first show ... | So, why are all equilibrium prices locally stable in a quasi-linear economy? The answer is obtained by the theory of no-trade equilibria. Balasko (1978, Theorem 1) showed that in a pure exchange economy, any no-trade equilibrium price is locally stable. This result was in fact substantially shown in Kihlstrom et al. (1... | The purpose of this paper is to extend this result to a quasi-linear economy with more than two commodities. That is, the aim of this study is to determine whether the above result holds when considering a general equilibrium model in which the utility remains quasi-linear and the dimension of the consumption space may... | B |
Therefore, the partial sums of the infinite series ∑n=1∞Dnsuperscriptsubscript𝑛1subscript𝐷𝑛\sum_{n=1}^{\infty}D_{n}∑ start_POSTSUBSCRIPT italic_n = 1 end_POSTSUBSCRIPT start_POSTSUPERSCRIPT ∞ end_POSTSUPERSCRIPT italic_D start_POSTSUBSCRIPT italic_n end_POSTSUBSCRIPT form a martingale bounded in L2superscript𝐿2L^{2... | If, e.g., A𝐴Aitalic_A is incorrectly chosen as the deviator, a similar computation to earlier yields that the partial sum of the series (5) up to N𝑁Nitalic_N is Ω(loglogN)Ω𝑁\Omega(\log\log N)roman_Ω ( roman_log roman_log italic_N ), which occurs with a probability approaching 00 as N→∞→𝑁N\to\inftyitalic_N → ∞. | so we briefly outline the changes. For sufficiently large N𝑁Nitalic_N, the probability of failure at Step 1111 is at most ϵ/3italic-ϵ3\epsilon/3italic_ϵ / 3. Similarly, the probability of failure at Step 2222 is also at most ϵ/3italic-ϵ3\epsilon/3italic_ϵ / 3 (using a second moment bound and Markov’s inequality). If b... | If we only have a finite number of samples, say N𝑁Nitalic_N, we can guarantee a probability of failure ϵ→0→italic-ϵ0\epsilon\to 0italic_ϵ → 0 as N→∞→𝑁N\to\inftyitalic_N → ∞ by modifying the test as follows. | For the same reason as in the original argument, a player will be chosen in Step 3 with probability approaching 1111 as N→∞→𝑁N\to\inftyitalic_N → ∞ (independently of ϵitalic-ϵ\epsilonitalic_ϵ), and adding the sums yields (up to a constant) ∑n=1Nsn2−sn−12nlogn≈∑n=1Nsn2n2logn=o(loglogN)superscriptsubscript𝑛1𝑁su... | C |
[27] Pareto, V.: Manuale di Economia Politica con una Introduzione alla Scienza Sociale. Societa Editrice Libraria, Milano (1906) | Finally, although our paper only considers the classical consumer theory, there are several new consumer theories treating nonlinear or stochastic budget inequality. See, for example, Shiozawa (2016) for the former, and Allen et al. (2023) for the latter. Our study does not provide a solution to the estimation problem ... | [31] Shiozawa, K.: Revealed preference test and shortest path problem; graph theoretic structure of the rationalization test. J. Math. Econ. 67, 38-48 (2016) | [13] Hosoya, Y.: The relationship between revealed preference and the Slutsky matrix. J. Math. Econ. 70, 127-146 (2017) | [12] Hosoya, Y.: A Theory for estimating consumer’s preference from demand. Adv. Math. Econ. 18, 33-55 (2015) | B |
If lX(z)≤lX′(z)subscript𝑙𝑋𝑧subscript𝑙superscript𝑋′𝑧\displaystyle l_{X}(z)\leq l_{X^{\prime}}(z)italic_l start_POSTSUBSCRIPT italic_X end_POSTSUBSCRIPT ( italic_z ) ≤ italic_l start_POSTSUBSCRIPT italic_X start_POSTSUPERSCRIPT ′ end_POSTSUPERSCRIPT end_POSTSUBSCRIPT ( italic_z ) for some vector of shares z𝑧\dis... | (1) The α𝛼\displaystyle\alphaitalic_α-Lorenz curves 𝒞Xαsubscriptsuperscript𝒞𝛼𝑋\displaystyle\mathcal{C}^{\alpha}_{X}caligraphic_C start_POSTSUPERSCRIPT italic_α end_POSTSUPERSCRIPT start_POSTSUBSCRIPT italic_X end_POSTSUBSCRIPT are the level curves of a bivariate cdf, hence they are downward sloping, non decreasing... | To visualize Lorenz dominance, we define an Inverse Lorenz Function at a given vector of resource shares as the fraction of the population that cumulatively holds those shares. It is characterized by the cumulative distribution function of the image of a uniform random vector by the Lorenz map. Hence, it is a cumulativ... | The α𝛼\displaystyle\alphaitalic_α-Lorenz curves provide a visualization of Lorenz dominance. We can compare the inequality of different allocations based on the shape and relative positions of their respective α𝛼\displaystyle\alphaitalic_α-Lorenz curves. | In case of bivariate allocations, the latter can be easily visualized on [0,1]2superscript012\displaystyle[0,1]^{2}[ 0 , 1 ] start_POSTSUPERSCRIPT 2 end_POSTSUPERSCRIPT through the relative positions of the level sets of the Inverse Lorenz Function, which we call α𝛼\displaystyle\alphaitalic_α-Lorenz curves, denoted | D |
The last statement of Theorem 2 gives conditions for the population quantile mapping q(P(β,⋅))𝑞𝑃𝛽⋅q(P(\beta,\cdot))italic_q ( italic_P ( italic_β , ⋅ ) ) to be a contraction with Lipschitz constant less than κ¯∈(0,1]¯𝜅01\bar{\kappa}\in(0,1]over¯ start_ARG italic_κ end_ARG ∈ ( 0 , 1 ]. In particular, q(P(β,⋅))𝑞... | Notably, the bound in the concentration inequality does not depend on the particular choice of s𝑠sitalic_s. We use this lemma to characterize the behavior of the finite system for sufficiently large iterates t𝑡titalic_t and number of agents n𝑛nitalic_n. Theorem 4 shows that under the same conditions that enable fixe... | Understanding equilibrium behavior of our model in the finite regime is of interest because our ultimate goal is to learn optimal equilibrium policies in finite samples. In this section, we instantiate the model from Section 2 in the regime where a finite number of agents are considered for the treatment. A difficulty ... | In Section 3, we give conditions on our model that guarantee existence and uniqueness of equilibria in the mean-field regime, the limiting regime where at each time step, an infinite number of agents are considered for the treatment. Furthermore, we show that under additional conditions, the mean-field equilibrium aris... | Recall that the decision maker’s objective, as outlined in Section 2, is to find a selection criterion β𝛽\betaitalic_β that maximizes the equilibrium policy value Veq(β)subscript𝑉eq𝛽V_{\text{eq}}(\beta)italic_V start_POSTSUBSCRIPT eq end_POSTSUBSCRIPT ( italic_β ). This is a sensible goal in settings where an equil... | B |
In principle, we could also consider other assignment mechanisms such as simple random sampling. We decided to focus on stratified block randomization because it is prevalent in practice and our results show that it dominates other mechanisms for which τ(s)≠0𝜏𝑠0\tau(s)\neq 0italic_τ ( italic_s ) ≠ 0 in terms of asym... | Finally, treatment assignment Agsubscript𝐴𝑔A_{g}italic_A start_POSTSUBSCRIPT italic_g end_POSTSUBSCRIPT follows a covariate-adaptive randomization (CAR) mechanism based on stratified block randomization with π=12𝜋12\pi=\frac{1}{2}italic_π = divide start_ARG 1 end_ARG start_ARG 2 end_ARG within each stratum. Concrete... | Imbens, 2017; Su and Ding, 2021), to our knowledge we are the first to establish results for these estimators when treatment assignment is performed using a stratified covariate-adaptive randomization procedure. As in Bugni | et al., 2023) that differ in the way they aggregate, or average, the treatment effect across units. They differ, in particular, according to whether the units of interest are the clusters themselves or the individuals within the cluster. The first of these parameters takes the clusters themselves as the units of intere... | The model in (27), as well as the two CAR designs, follow closely the original designs for covariate-adaptive randomization with individual-level data considered in Bugni | D |
The simulation-based analysis in the previous section demonstrates the importance of respecting inter-period dependencies and basing the decision on replenishment order quantities on probabilistic information instead of expected values. However, in practice, the underlying distributions need to be estimated from histor... | On the other hand, while there are opportunities resulting from the control the retailer exerts over the fulfilment process, picking and delivery increase the time between the instance a replenishment order for an SKU is placed and the final availability to the customer. This longer delivery time reduces the forecastin... | Figure 1: Mean average percentage error (mape) as a function of the delivery time of the e-grocery retailer for all SKUs within the categories fruits and vegetables in the demand period January 2019 to December 2019. | The data set on the attended home delivery service provided by the e-grocery retailer covers demand periods of six different local fulfilment centres from January 2019 to December 2019, i.e. before the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. One observation here equals one demand period t𝑡titalic_t, i.e. one day of delive... | For each source of uncertainty and each SKU, we use the previous six months of data to estimate the associated probability distributions and incorporate them into the lookahead policy for an evaluation period of one month. For example, we train on data from January to June 2019 to forecast demand, spoilage, and supply ... | C |
The power for detecting p𝑝pitalic_p-hacking crucially depends on whether the researchers use a thresholding or a minimum approach to p𝑝pitalic_p-hacking, the econometric method, the fraction of p𝑝pitalic_p-hackers, τ𝜏\tauitalic_τ, and the distribution of hℎhitalic_h. When researchers p𝑝pitalic_p-hack using a thres... | The impact of publication bias on power depends on the testable restrictions that the tests exploit. Both types of publication bias can substantially increase the power of the CSUB and the CS2B test, which exploit upper bounds. This is expected since both forms of publication bias favor small p𝑝pitalic_p-values, which... | Finally, the results in Appendix E show that the larger K𝐾Kitalic_K — the more degrees of freedom the researchers have when p𝑝pitalic_p-hacking — the higher the power of the CSUB and CS2B test. | Under the minimum approach, the power curves of the CSUB and CS2B tests are very similar, suggesting that the power of the CS2B test comes mainly from using upper bounds. This finding demonstrates the importance of exploiting upper bounds in addition to monotonicity and continuity restrictions in practice. Figure 11 fu... | The CS2B test, which exploits monotonicity restrictions and bounds, has the highest power overall. However, this test may exhibit some small size distortions when the effective sample size is small (e.g., lag length selection with h=0ℎ0h=0italic_h = 0). Among the tests that exploit monotonicity of the entire p𝑝pitalic... | D |
We find a positive and statistically significant effect of external debt on GHG emissions when we take into account the potential endogeneity problems. A 1 pp. rise in external debt causes, on average, a 0.5% increase in GHG emissions. | In exploring a possible mechanism of action, we find that external debt is negatively related to an indicator of policies associated with environmental sustainability. This may suggest that when external debt increases, governments are less able to enforce environmental regulations because their main priority is to inc... | In exploring possible a mechanism of action, we find that external debt is negatively related to an indicator of policies associated with environmental sustainability. This may suggest that when external debt increases, governments are less able to enforce environmental regulations because their main priority is to inc... | In exploring a possible mechanism of action, we find that external debt is negatively related to an indicator of policies associated with environmental sustainability. This may suggest that when external debt increases, governments are less able to enforce environmental regulations because their main priority is to inc... | As discussed above, there is a plausible main channel through which external debt could affect GHG emissions. External debt-driven economic growth, e.g., due to investment, could increase energy consumption and, thus, environmental pollution. However, in our baseline estimates we find a positive effect of external debt... | A |
Appendix Table A.4 compares the performance of our baseline SyNBEATS estimator to these variants. Unsurprisingly, SyNBEATS performs the best, but the performance degradation from excluding horizontal information is dramatically larger than from excluding vertical information. This suggests that much of the performance ... | To investigate the importance of the model architecture upon which SyNBEATS relies, Appendix Table A.5 compares SyNBEATS to alternative methods for imputing counterfactual treated unit outcomes based on vertical and horizontal information. SyNBEATS substantially outperforms “off-the-shelf” neural network and random for... | In this section, we investigate the source of SyNBEATS’ strong observed performance relative to alternative estimators. SyNBEATS differs from other estimators in two important ways: (1) its use of both horizontal and vertical information to inform its imputation, and (2) its use of the N-BEATS residual block architectu... | Appendix Table A.4 compares the performance of our baseline SyNBEATS estimator to these variants. Unsurprisingly, SyNBEATS performs the best, but the performance degradation from excluding horizontal information is dramatically larger than from excluding vertical information. This suggests that much of the performance ... | Although the N-BEATS algorithm has been shown to excel at a range of forecasting tasks, an important concern is whether its performance will be as strong when applied to the relatively small panel data sets typically employed in social science research. With limited data, simpler methods like synthetic controls (SC) or... | A |
{L}_{w}^{(i-1)l+t}}\left[Y_{(i-1)l+t}\right]roman_Δ 111 start_POSTSUPERSCRIPT italic_b end_POSTSUPERSCRIPT start_POSTSUBSCRIPT italic_i end_POSTSUBSCRIPT ( italic_w ) = divide start_ARG 1 end_ARG start_ARG italic_b end_ARG ∑ start_POSTSUBSCRIPT italic_t = 1 end_POSTSUBSCRIPT start_POSTSUPERSCRIPT italic_b end_POSTSUPER... | b𝑏bitalic_b time periods of the last treatment switch. We then show that, using this design, we can estimate the global treatment effect for non-burn-in periods | We assume that the centered second moment of the block-averaged potential outcomes in the burn-in periods (b𝑏bitalic_b) | Finally, we assume that all cross products of between the block-averaged potential outcomes in one block | Table 2 presents the bias, variance, mean squared error, and coverage achieved by those estimators. As expected, we notice that the use of burn-in periods considerably reduces the bias of the treatment effect estimation. Although the variance of the estimators with burn-in periods increases, the decrease in bias still ... | B |
The impulse response of the FFR peaks at horizon 1 and then steadily declines to zero, which is in line with Figure 1 in Bernanke et al. (2005). | we see a more pronounced price puzzle with the HDLP. The response is positive and significant for 30 months, peaking at horizon 20. The FAVAR impulse response is largely in line with Bernanke et al. (2005), with a small positive effect at early horizons, followed by a negative, though mainly insignificant, response aft... | For the HDLP, the response stays at a higher level for a longer period than for the FAVAR. The response of IP is also in line with Bernanke et al. (2005), with the largest drop around horizon 20, before eventually returning to zero. Notably, the response obtained with the HDLP is considerably smaller than the one for t... | We compare the HDLP impulse responses obtained from the desparsified lasso to the ones obtained from a 3-factor FAVAR as used in Bernanke et al. (2005). Details about the FAVAR estimation are provided in Appendix C.3. Figure 3 shows the impulse responses of FFR, IP, and CPI to a shock in the FFR of a size such that the... | The impulse response of the FFR peaks at horizon 1 and then steadily declines to zero, which is in line with Figure 1 in Bernanke et al. (2005). | B |
The first run of the experiment, with each run indicated by the time-stamp in Table 4, yielded different responses, whereby the numerical component of the answer with the pronoun ‘‘he" was $15, but when the pronoun was changed to ‘‘she," the response switched to $12. The histogram distance is also the highest of all ob... | Table 5: Sensitive Attributes: Race. Statistics of bot responses to named prompt with sample race-stereotypical names. Although the numerical response of the bot is identical, there are measurable differences in the distribution of ranked responses. The last two tests are for mere curiosity. | I find mild variation among responses for different perturbations but strong effects associated with changing gendered pronouns (Table 4): changing the pronoun from “he” to “she” caused the perceived fair wage to change from $15 to $12. However, identical tests conducted at a later time showed a decrease in the respons... | In the race-based experiment, I changed the prompt to be personalized to the generic name John and subsequently replaced it with names randomly selected among the most common race-stereotypical, DeShawn, Shanice, Jada, Harrison. The results are shown in Table 5. | Table 4: Effect of Sensitive Attributes: Gender. I test GPT-3 by changing the original pronoun ‘‘They’’ in the prompt, to ‘‘He’’ and ‘‘She.’’ Gendered pronouns changed the response, dropping from a consistent answer of $15 to $12 when using the pronoun ‘‘she.’’ However, in a later identical test (see the time stamps),... | C |
One could use a similar argument to defend calling with probability at the upper bound of the interval—min{nx(1+n),1}𝑛𝑥1𝑛1\min\left\{\frac{n}{x(1+n)},1\right\}roman_min { divide start_ARG italic_n end_ARG start_ARG italic_x ( 1 + italic_n ) end_ARG , 1 }. If the opponent somehow knew that betting n𝑛nitalic_n was ... | The first argument seems much more natural than the second, as it seems much more reasonable that a human is aware they should check sometimes with weak hands, but may have trouble computing that n𝑛nitalic_n is the optimal size and guess that it is x.𝑥x.italic_x . However, both arguments could be appropriate dependin... | According to our above analysis, the unique Nash equilibrium strategy for player 1 is to bet 2 with probability 1 with a winning hand, to bet 2 with probability 2323\frac{2}{3}divide start_ARG 2 end_ARG start_ARG 3 end_ARG with a losing hand, and to check with probability 1313\frac{1}{3}divide start_ARG 1 end_ARG start... | a Nash equilibrium. Even if additional information is available about the opponents, e.g., from historical data or observations of play, we would often still opt to start playing a Nash equilibrium strategy until we are confident in our ability to successfully exploit opponents by deviating [11, 14]. It is well known t... | So we have shown that player 2 has infinitely many Nash equilibrium strategies that differ in their frequencies of calling vs. “suboptimal” bet sizes of player 1. Which of these strategies should we play when we encounter an opponent who bets a suboptimal size? One argument for calling with probability at the lower bou... | A |
The proof follows from the observation that there is no profitable coalitional deviation involving two opposed-biased senders. Likewise, the receiver cannot gain from a coalitional deviation because the equilibrium is already efficient. Therefore, the equilibrium in Proposition 4 is strong (Aumann, \APACyear1959) and c... | Findings in the previous section show that there is a unique communication protocol that is efficient, minimal, and resilient to collusion. This protocol, called public advocacy, requires the receiver to consult sequentially and publicly two senders with conflicting interests. This section discusses the robustness of t... | The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 reviews the related literature, and Section 3 presents the model. The main results are in Section 4. Section 5 discusses the model’s assumptions and the robustness of the results. Finally, Section 6 concludes. | The second part of this paper focuses on the last type of minimal arrangement left to analyze: public advocacy, that is, the sequential and public consultation of senders with conflicting interests over decision-making. The main result shows that public advocacy is efficient and robust to collusion. Importantly, it is ... | The main result has potentially significant implications for the understanding of organizational design. It shows that only one minimal protocol can achieve efficiency under the threat of senders’ collusion. This protocol prescribes the sequential and public consultation of two informed agents with conflicting interest... | A |
The generalized is thus FAS=[0.5,1]𝐹𝐴𝑆0.51FAS=[0.5,1]italic_F italic_A italic_S = [ 0.5 , 1 ] and does not contain β𝛽\betaitalic_β. | that are themselves endogenous explanatory variables with γℓαℓ≠0subscript𝛾ℓsubscript𝛼ℓ0\gamma_{\ell}\alpha_{\ell}\neq 0italic_γ start_POSTSUBSCRIPT roman_ℓ end_POSTSUBSCRIPT italic_α start_POSTSUBSCRIPT roman_ℓ end_POSTSUBSCRIPT ≠ 0. | of Z1subscript𝑍1Z_{1}italic_Z start_POSTSUBSCRIPT 1 end_POSTSUBSCRIPT and Z2subscript𝑍2Z_{2}italic_Z start_POSTSUBSCRIPT 2 end_POSTSUBSCRIPT, only identifies β𝛽\betaitalic_β when Z2subscript𝑍2Z_{2}italic_Z start_POSTSUBSCRIPT 2 end_POSTSUBSCRIPT is | where Z2subscript𝑍2Z_{2}italic_Z start_POSTSUBSCRIPT 2 end_POSTSUBSCRIPT violates the exclusion assumption and Z1subscript𝑍1Z_{1}italic_Z start_POSTSUBSCRIPT 1 end_POSTSUBSCRIPT and | Because Z2subscript𝑍2Z_{2}italic_Z start_POSTSUBSCRIPT 2 end_POSTSUBSCRIPT is here an endogenous explanatory variable, and because | D |
Based on the earlier discussion, these cost estimates should be interpreted as the remaining costs the firm must incur between application submission and FDA approval. | For instance, we can use discontinuation announcements made after Phase II (but before Phase III) clinical trials to identify the cost of Phase III clinical trials. | Likewise, we can use discontinuation announcements after Phase I clinical trials to identify the costs of Phase II. | To identify the costs, we use discontinuation announcements made just before the FDA application—that is, we use the announcements made after Phase III clinical trials. | For instance, we can use discontinuation announcements made after discovery (but before Phase I clinical trials) to identify the costs of Phase I clinical trials. | A |
We also study an easier version of the Outcome-Effect Question: we ask how one applicant can affect a single other applicant’s match (Section A.2). | We find both 𝖳𝖳𝖢𝖳𝖳𝖢{{\mathsf{TTC}}}sansserif_TTC and 𝖣𝖠𝖣𝖠\mathsf{DA}sansserif_DA have low complexity according to this measure. | Our results under this complexity measure give a separation between 𝖣𝖠𝖣𝖠\mathsf{DA}sansserif_DA and 𝖳𝖳𝖢𝖳𝖳𝖢{{\mathsf{TTC}}}sansserif_TTC: | This result gives perhaps the most application-oriented distinction between 𝖣𝖠𝖣𝖠\mathsf{DA}sansserif_DA and 𝖳𝖳𝖢𝖳𝖳𝖢{{\mathsf{TTC}}}sansserif_TTC in our paper. With a single complexity measure, it gives a precise sense in which priorities relate to the outcome matching in a more complex manner in 𝖳𝖳𝖢𝖳𝖳𝖢{{... | While our results in Section 3 separate the simple mechanism 𝖲𝖣𝖲𝖣{{\mathsf{SD}}}sansserif_SD from 𝖳𝖳𝖢𝖳𝖳𝖢{{\mathsf{TTC}}}sansserif_TTC and 𝖣𝖠𝖣𝖠\mathsf{DA}sansserif_DA, they do not distinguish between the complexity of 𝖳𝖳𝖢𝖳𝖳𝖢{{\mathsf{TTC}}}sansserif_TTC and 𝖣𝖠𝖣𝖠\mathsf{DA}sansserif_DA themselves. | A |
15 voters in all, with 3 experts: N=15𝑁15N=15italic_N = 15, K=3𝐾3K=3italic_K = 3. The two treatments | Table 2: p=0.7𝑝0.7p=0.7italic_p = 0.7, F(q)𝐹𝑞F(q)italic_F ( italic_q ) Uniform over [0.5,0.7]0.50.7[0.5,0.7][ 0.5 , 0.7 ] | In all experiments, we set π=0.5𝜋0.5\pi=0.5italic_π = 0.5, p=0.7𝑝0.7p=0.7italic_p = 0.7, and F(q)𝐹𝑞F(q)italic_F ( italic_q ) Uniform | With p=0.7𝑝0.7p=0.7italic_p = 0.7 and q𝑞qitalic_q uniform over [0.5,[0.5,[ 0.5 ,0.7], we have verified | Table 1: p=0.7𝑝0.7p=0.7italic_p = 0.7, F(q)𝐹𝑞F(q)italic_F ( italic_q ) Uniform over [0.5,0.7]0.50.7[0.5,0.7][ 0.5 , 0.7 ] | D |
But in order to understand the processes of (de)-industrialization, it is crucial to develop theories that explore the interaction among multiple spatial linkages. | about the circular causality between migration and knowledge flows. In the present work, production of knowledge affects the firms’ capacity to innovate, which in turn allows the production of higher quality manufactured varieties in a region. The chance of successful innovations depends on the spatial distribution of ... | We aim to fill this gap by explaining how the intra-regional and inter-regional interaction between researchers impacts knowledge creation and affects the spatial distribution of agents. | returns in manufacturing interact to shape the spatial economy. Knowledge levels translate in a firms’ capacity to innovate. The chance of successful innovations depends on the spatial distribution of mobile agents in the economy, i.e. on the intra- and inter-regional | the same region rather than between different regions – which depends on several factors such as cognitive proximity, cultural factors, diversity of skills and abilities, among others. We assume further that the increasing complexity of each variety is offset by the available regional quality levels (cf. Section 3.3) g... | B |
We characterize the extreme points of monotone function intervals and apply this result to several economic problems. We show that any extreme point of a monotone function interval must either coincide with one of the monotone function interval’s bounds, or be constant on an interval in its domain, where at least one e... | In the first class of applications, we use Theorem 1 and Choquet’s theorem to characterize the set of distributions of posterior quantiles. Consider a one-dimensional state and a signal (i.e., a Blackwell experiment). Each signal realization induces a posterior belief. For every posterior belief, one can compute the po... | Theorem 1 alongside Choquet’s theorem leads to the characterization of the set of distributions of posterior quantiles. This characterization is an analog of the celebrated characterization of the set of distributions of posterior means that follows from Strassen’s theorem (Strassen 1965). Quantiles are important in se... | It is worthwhile to acknowledge the paper’s limitations. Regarding the distributions of posterior quantiles, the analysis is restricted to a one-dimensional state space. Moreover, while the characterization parallels the well-known characterization of distributions of posterior means, it provides little intuition for h... | The first application of the extreme point characterization to the distributions of posterior quantiles is related to belief-based characterizations of signals, which date back to the seminal contributions of Blackwell (1953) and Strassen (1965). Blackwell’s and Strassen’s characterizations also lead to the characteriz... | C |
The core components of the analysis, i.e. the extraction of CO2 emissions data for Hungarian ETS firms and the initialization of the studied decarbonization strategies are available at: https://github.com/jo-stangl/reducing_employment_and_economic_output_loss_in_rapid_decarbonization_scenario | To empirically test our framework, we approximate hypothetical decarbonization efforts with the removal of firms from the Hungarian production network. A firm that is removed from the production network no longer supplies its customers nor does it place demand to its (former) suppliers in the subsequent time step. It a... | The employment-weighted economic systemic risk index (EW-ESRI) is a measure of potential job loss in case of a production stop of a single company or a set of companies in the entire economy. As explained in the Methods section in the main text, it captures the indirect job losses of firms in the production network who... | This work was supported in part by the Austrian Federal Ministry for Climate Action, Environment, Energy, Mobility, Innovation and Technology as part of the funding project GZ 2021-0.664.668 (S.T.), the Austrian Science Fund FWF under P 33751 (S.T.), the Austrian Science Promotion Agency, FFG project under 39071248 (S.... | From the beginning of 2015 to the second quarter of 2018, only transactions exceeding 1 million HUF of tax content for the sum of the transactions between two firms in a given reporting period (monthly, quarterly, annually) were recorded. In the period from the third quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2020, the t... | C |
Despite being able to solve the illustrative instance presented in Section 4, the state-of-the-art mathematical optimization solvers we tested were unable to solve this more realistic instance. We experimented with different complementary slackness reformulation options and primal-dual equality reformulation available ... | For each combination of the input parameters, we analyse the total welfare (the value of the upper-level problem objective function), the share of VRE in the total generation mix and the total generation level, which we refer to as output factors. | In this paper, we study the impact of the TSO infrastructure expansion decisions in combination with carbon taxes and renewable-driven investment incentives on the optimal generation mix. To examine the impact of renewables-driven policies we propose a novel bi-level modelling assessment to plan optimal transmission in... | Therefore, following the solution approach proposed in (Virasjoki et al., 2020), we applied an iterative procedure in which we discretise and exhaustively enumerate and fix all possible upper-level decisions and solve the lower-level problem. Then, we determine ex post the decisions that yield optimal solutions. The di... | The proposed model assumes the TSO to take a leading position and anticipate the generation capacity investment decisions influenced by its transmission system expansion. This assumption leads to the bi-level structure of the proposed model. Such a modelling approach is widely used in energy market planning. As an exam... | C |
Let f:ℛ→Ω:𝑓→ℛΩf:\mathcal{R}\rightarrow\Omegaitalic_f : caligraphic_R → roman_Ω be SP. Then, for each vector of ΩΩ\Omegaroman_Ω-restricted peaks p∈ΩapsuperscriptΩ𝑎\emph{{p}}\in\Omega^{a}p ∈ roman_Ω start_POSTSUPERSCRIPT italic_a end_POSTSUPERSCRIPT, |Ω(p)|≤2Ωp2|\Omega(\emph{{p}})|\leq 2| roman_Ω ( p ) | ≤ 2. | Definition 4 imposes some conditions on the left-decisive sets. Let R∈ℛ𝑅ℛR\in\cal{R}italic_R ∈ caligraphic_R. The first condition requires that the left-decisive sets of a binary decision function gp(R)subscript𝑔𝑝𝑅g_{p(R)}italic_g start_POSTSUBSCRIPT italic_p ( italic_R ) end_POSTSUBSCRIPT have to be subsets of (N... | Vorsatz (2018) also follow a two-step procedure. In their model, the location of the peak/dip of each agent is known, so the first step of their rules asks which agents have single-peaked preferences. As a result of the first step, both the type of preference of each agent and the location of the peaks and dips are kno... | Our characterization establishes that the first step of the strategy-proof rules on our domain is similar to the strategy-proof rules on the single-peaked preference domain, and the second step is similar to the strategy-proof rules on the single-dipped preference domain. As a consequence, previous results in the liter... | In the first step, the agents with single-peaked preferences indicate their ΩΩ\Omegaroman_Ω-restricted peaks. | D |
Economically motivated short-run restrictions have been an integral part of identifying SVAR models in numerous applications since Sims, (1980). | Note that identification requires at least (n−1)n/2𝑛1𝑛2(n-1)n/2( italic_n - 1 ) italic_n / 2 restrictions, and incorrect restrictions lead to inconsistent estimates. | Consider the scenario where the shocks are sufficiently non-Gaussian, allowing the first-step estimator to consistently estimate all elements of B0subscript𝐵0B_{0}italic_B start_POSTSUBSCRIPT 0 end_POSTSUBSCRIPT. If a restriction is correct, the consistency of the first-step estimator ensures that the first term of th... | One crucial distinction from traditional approaches, where restrictions are treated as binding constraints, is that the ridge penalty mitigates the adverse effects of incorrect restrictions, especially as the sample size increases. In small samples, the statistical identification approach may not provide robust evidenc... | Despite their popularity in applied work, the disadvantageous of restriction based identification methods are well known: incorrect restrictions lead to biased estimates. | D |
At the same time, our model allows us to capture two crucial aspects features of real-world digital advertising: the platform’s ability to match consumers with their preferred firms and the value created through personalized pricing, which offers discounts to lower-value consumers who would not purchase at the monopoly... | The model also accommodates a broader interpretation where each firm offers a range of products varying in quality and price. The platform’s information enables firms to guide each consumer to a different quality-price pair within their product line, a process known as product steering. This process combines value crea... | Digital platforms offer a variety of advertisement formats, such as sponsored links, images, or videos. The content, often a product-price pair selected from the advertiser’s portfolio, can differ across media channels and is tailored to individual consumers. Advertisers face three key decisions: identifying the target... | Finally, in our model, personalized pricing is exclusive to the platform and only applies to the firm that wins the sponsored slot. This is due to the consumers’ unit demand and the significant difference in the information each firm possesses on- and off-platform. However, in real-world scenarios, multiple forms of pr... | implications of managed campaigns for equilibrium product quality, relative to our paper’s exploration of showrooming and its impact on pricing strategies in the off-platform markets. | A |
Table 1 gives an overview of the fit. We note that in all our analysis we separately estimate the weights and calculate the flow matrix for the years 2001–2021. | The statistics in table 1 show that these approximate corrections do in fact improve the fit of the model significantly. Interestingly the fit does not only improve with the mining data but also with the use data, which indicates that the correction has also an indirect effect on the column sums of the flow matrix. | Table 1: Fit of the flow matrix with observed PR mining and P use. The table shows the average R2superscript𝑅2R^{2}italic_R start_POSTSUPERSCRIPT 2 end_POSTSUPERSCRIPT value (for the years 2001–2021) for the fit of F𝐹Fitalic_F with M𝑀Mitalic_M and U𝑈Uitalic_U separately as well as combined, as well as the standard ... | While the original trade data provides already a useful approximation of the P flows per se, it is worth noting that the ranking of the countries in terms of exports and imports differs from the ranking in terms of the material flow. This can already be observed from the aggregated data presented in the bottom of figur... | While using net exports already produces a good fit of the flow matrix with the data, we observe that just by optimizing the weights we can improve the average R2superscript𝑅2R^{2}italic_R start_POSTSUPERSCRIPT 2 end_POSTSUPERSCRIPT from 94% to 97% (first vs. second column). | D |
In this paper, the equilibrium concept we focus on is Nash equilibrium. In a Nash equilibrium, no agent improves by deviating from its initial chosen strategy, assuming the other agents keep their strategies unchanged. | It is well known, for matching markets, that there is no stable rule for which truth-telling is a dominant strategy for all agents (see Dubins and Freedman, 1981; Roth, 1982, 1985; Sotomayor, 1996, 2012; Martínez et al., 2004; Manasero and | Oviedo, 2022, among others). That is, given the true preferences and a stable rule, at least one agent might benefit from misrepresenting her preferences regardless of what the rest of the agents state. Thus, stable matchings cannot be reached through dominant “truth-telling equilibria". The stability of equilibrium so... | Next, we show that any stable matching rule implements the individually rational correspondence in Nash equilibrium.666This result generalizes the result first presented by Alcalde (1996) for the marriage market and then extended by Sotomayor (2012) for the many-to-one matching market with responsive preferences. | Wilson, 1971; Roth, 1984, 1985; Martínez et al., 2000; Alkan, 2002; Kojima, 2012, among others). The version of this theorem for a many-to-many matching market where all agents have substitutable choice functions satisfying LAD, that also applies in our setting, is presented in Alkan (2002) and states that each agent i... | A |
In the analysis, we use the following two definitions of homeownership. First, we consider an individual as a homeowner if either she ever had a mortgage or she is recorded as a homeowner according to Experian’s imputation. With this comprehensive homeownership definition, about 70% of individuals in our sample are hom... | No individual in our sample has a credit limit equal to zero (that is almost mechanical, as to be in the credit bureau a credit line is needed). The same holds true for the total credit limit on open revolving trades (which is defined as the total credit limit on all open revolving trades with credit limit larger than ... | In Appendix D, E, and G we focus on individuals who have been hit by a soft default in 2010. Hence, in that case we drop from the sample all those who have been hit by at least one harsh default between year 2004 and year 2010 (extremes included) and all those who have been hit by a soft default between year 2004 and 2... | Next, we study the impact of a soft default on the probability that total credit limit is lower than 10,000USD (Figure 3, Panel (ii)), that credit limit is about the 10-th percentile of credit limits in 2010, and on revolving credit balance (Figure 3, Panel (iii)). | Table 1: Summary statistics of our main variables, 2010, balanced panel. Individuals who experienced a harsh default before or in the same year as a soft default in the sample period (i.e. from 2004 onwards) have been dropped. Special codes credit scores lower than 300 have been trimmed. Similarly, the top 1% of total ... | D |
_{jk}\right)∑ start_POSTSUBSCRIPT italic_j end_POSTSUBSCRIPT ( italic_q ⋅ italic_s start_POSTSUBSCRIPT italic_j end_POSTSUBSCRIPT italic_f start_POSTSUBSCRIPT italic_j end_POSTSUBSCRIPT + ∑ start_POSTSUBSCRIPT italic_k end_POSTSUBSCRIPT sign ( italic_s start_POSTSUBSCRIPT italic_j end_POSTSUBSCRIPT - italic_s start_POS... | to Minimax. As with IRV, each ballot is a ranking of some or all of the candidates.101010While it is often recommended that equal rankings be allowed under | Block Approval: Voters vote for any number of candidates.272727We use the same sincere strategy as for single-winner Approval Voting. | Minimax: Vote sincerely222222While a viability-aware strategy was included for Minimax in Wolk et al. (2023), | Approval: Vote for all candidates with uj≥EVsubscript𝑢𝑗𝐸𝑉u_{j}\geq EVitalic_u start_POSTSUBSCRIPT italic_j end_POSTSUBSCRIPT ≥ italic_E italic_V. | C |
Let 𝒮ϵ(ξ)superscript𝒮italic-ϵ𝜉\mathcal{S}^{\epsilon}(\xi)caligraphic_S start_POSTSUPERSCRIPT italic_ϵ end_POSTSUPERSCRIPT ( italic_ξ ) denote the set of solutions whose objective values are at most a fraction ϵitalic-ϵ\epsilonitalic_ϵ worse than the optimal objective value z*(ξ)superscript𝑧𝜉z^{*}(\xi)italic_z st... | In this section, we study how to extend the proposed methods to problems where agents have cardinal preferences over the solutions, i.e., they associate a real value to each of the optimal solutions. | Table 2 displays the required computational effort to find a partitioning of the agents, and to obtain each of the distributions. The computation time for finding an implementation of RSD for dichotomous preferences is, as expected, close to that of finding a single optimal solution, excluding the time to find a partit... | In this section, we investigate the performance of the distribution rules that were discussed in Section 5. We study the proposed distribution rules for two distinct problems: kidney exchange, where the agents have dichotomous preferences, and the single-machine scheduling problem to minimize total tardiness, where the... | For both problems, the performance of the leximin and the Nash distributions are close to the optimum on the criterion that they do not optimize. The performance of the other distribution rules, however, differs for the two studied applications. | C |
Since it is based on actual trades, realized volatility (RV) is the ultimate measure of market volatility, although the latter is more often associated with the implied volatility, most commonly measured by the VIX index cboevix ; cboevixhistoric – the so called market ”fear index” – that tries to predict RV of the S&... | While the standard search for Dragon Kings involves performing a linear fit of the tails of the distribution pisarenko2012robust ; janczura2012black , here we tried to broaden our analysis by also fitting the entire distribution using mGB (7) and GB2 (11) – the two members of the Generalized Beta family of distribution... | We fit CCDF of the full RV distribution – for the entire time span discussed in Sec. 2 – using mGB (7) and GB2 (11). The fits are shown on the log-log scale in Figs. 4 – 13, together with the linear fit (LF) of the tails with RV>40𝑅𝑉40RV>40italic_R italic_V > 40. LF excludes the end points, as prescribed in pisarenk... | The main result of this paper is that the largest values of RV are in fact nDK. We find that daily returns are the closest to the BS behavior. However, with the increase of n𝑛nitalic_n we observe the development of ”potential” DK with statistically significant deviations upward from the straight line. This trend termi... | It should be emphasized that RV is agnostic with respect to gains or losses in stock returns. Nonetheless, it has been habitual that large gains and losses occur at around the same time. Here we wish to address the question of whether the largest values of RV fall on the power-law tail of the RV distribution. As is wel... | D |
Zeithammer (2019) shows that, in a symmetric auction for a single object, bid functions are monotonic. As a consequence, the revenue equivalence theorem (Myerson, 1981) applies777Intuitively, under different pricing rules, bidding behavior is also different, in a way that exactly offsets differences in the way prices a... | Zeithammer (2019) shows that, in a symmetric auction for a single object, bid functions are monotonic. As a consequence, the revenue equivalence theorem (Myerson, 1981) applies777Intuitively, under different pricing rules, bidding behavior is also different, in a way that exactly offsets differences in the way prices a... | §4.3 considers asymmetric, single-query auctions. We complement the results of Zeithammer (2019) by considering specifications of bidder value distributions that are not amenable to closed-form equilibrium solutions. We show that, in a variety of cases of real-world relevance, soft floors yield lower revenues than seco... | As noted in §1, our contribution here is twofold. First, we demonstrate through simulations that, with multi-query targeting, different auction formats—and in particular auctions with a soft floor—can yield different revenues, even if bidder types are drawn from the same distribution. Second, restricting attention to s... | Our first key finding is that, as anticipated, the three auction formats yield different expected revenues. Soft-floor reserve prices can impact revenues; thus, our simulations provide some support to this common industry practice. Under Hedge, revenues are higher in soft-floor reserve price auctions than in first-pric... | C |
To intuitively understand why sharing contracts are well-suited to the research environment, note that sharing contracts create an encouragement effect by altering the degree of strategic complementarity or substitutability. In particular, for an environment similar to Keller et al. (2005) in which free-riding drives i... | There are N𝑁Nitalic_N agents i∈{1,2,…N}𝑖12…𝑁i\in\{1,2,\dots N\}italic_i ∈ { 1 , 2 , … italic_N } investigating a potential research breakthrough. The research idea is good or bad, which is drawn by Nature prior to the start of the game and unobserved by the agents. Formally, the quality of the research idea is the ... | While the formal analysis was constrained to a specific model, this theoretical work offers important insights for thinking about research. First, the condition for efficiency when there are breakthrough payoff externalities is that breakthroughs must have a neutral impact on the losers. As much of the contest literatu... | As a consequence, the insights of this paper do not necessarily hold in environments in which the nature of inefficiency is heterogeneous between agents. For example, with asymmetric returns to research effort, the first-best solution takes a more complex form where some agents stop experimenting at different beliefs t... | I show that one piece of information sufficient to restore efficiency is the identity of the researcher that makes the breakthrough (termed the “winner”). To show this, I first consider a full-information environment with heterogeneity in payoffs between the discoverer and non-discoverers. I find that absent contractin... | C |
The points Zisubscript𝑍𝑖Z_{i}italic_Z start_POSTSUBSCRIPT italic_i end_POSTSUBSCRIPT are called knots. | not a natural cubic spline with knots at Zisubscript𝑍𝑖Z_{i}italic_Z start_POSTSUBSCRIPT italic_i end_POSTSUBSCRIPT. Let g𝑔gitalic_g be the | means that, unless g~~𝑔\widetilde{g}over~ start_ARG italic_g end_ARG itself is a natural cubic spline | on [a,b]𝑎𝑏[a,b][ italic_a , italic_b ] is a cubic spline if two conditions are satisfied: on each of the | A cubic spline on [a,b]𝑎𝑏[a,b][ italic_a , italic_b ] is said to be a natural cubic spline if its second and | D |
In short, the main conclusion from this type classification in the simultaneous public goods games literature is that conditional co-operation is the predominant pattern, free-riding is frequent, while unconditional co-operation is very rare. In a sequential discrete public goods experiment involving position uncertain... | 25% of the subjects behave according to the theoretical predictions of Gallice and Monzón (2019). Allowing for the presence of alternative behavioural types among the remaining subjects, we find that the majority are classified as conditional co-operators, some are altruists, and very few behave in a free-riding way. | In short, the main conclusion from this type classification in the simultaneous public goods games literature is that conditional co-operation is the predominant pattern, free-riding is frequent, while unconditional co-operation is very rare. In a sequential discrete public goods experiment involving position uncertain... | The majority of the subjects behave in an altruistic or conditional co-operating way, around 25% of the subjects as G&M type, and free-riding is very rare. | 2-4). Additionally, we investigate whether subjects align with the predictions of the G&M model (G&M type). We find that around 25% of the subjects behave according to the G&M model, the vast majority behaves in a conditional co-operating or altruistic way, and a non-significant proportion free rides. From a mechanism ... | C |
Similarly, individuals may choose to delegate to save on information-gathering costs behind the observed choices as in Sinclair (1990). | For example, investors may gain substantially if they delegate at low cost to high quality experts, but can be harmed if they chase the past performance of recently lucky but low quality experts, or if they choose an expert who maintains an excessively risky portfolio. | This small positive cost will ensure that a neo-classically rational subject would not delegate their decision in the trivial investment task. | Such investors may be rational in the usual neoclassical sense, but recognize their own cognitive limitations. If true expertise is available at moderate cost, it is rational for them to hire it. | reducing decision costs may be rational and beneficial for an investor, and (to the extent that it is consistent with investor well-being) increasing risk tolerance may also be beneficial. | C |
Our work is related to the recent literature on sensitivity analysis for IPW estimators, which relates to our first application. A sensitivity analysis is an approach to partial identification that begins from assumptions that point-identify the causal estimand of interest and then considers increasing relaxations of t... | Our other two applications relate to existing work on sensitivity analysis. Our proposed sensitivity analysis for sharp regression discontinuity (RD) applies when data on the running variable fails tests for manipulation (McCrary, 2008; Otsu et al., 2013; Bugni and Canay, 2021). Our proposal nests both an exogeneity-ty... | Our work is related to the recent literature on sensitivity analysis for IPW estimators, which relates to our first application. A sensitivity analysis is an approach to partial identification that begins from assumptions that point-identify the causal estimand of interest and then considers increasing relaxations of t... | This paper proposes a novel sensitivity analysis framework for identification failures for linear estimators. By placing bounds on the distributional distance between the observed distribution and a target distribution that identifies the causal parameter of interest, we obtain sharp and tractable analytic bounds. This... | As McCrary (2008) notes, the RD assumption of no manipulation is testable. When McCrary’s test fails, Gerard et al. (2020) propose a worst-case bound on the conditional average treatment effect for non-manipulators: a Conditional Local Average Treatment Effect (CLATE). We show that a stronger restriction on manipulatio... | A |
Next, we analyze the maximality of the domain of preferences (including the domain of single-peaked preferences) for which a rule satisfying own-peak-onliness, efficiency, the equal division guarantee, and NOM exists. For the properties of efficiency, strategy-proofness, and symmetry, the single-plateaued domain is max... | Neme, 2001). In Theorem 3, we show that the single-plateaued domain is maximal for our properties as well. Therefore, even though replacing strategy-proofness with NOM greatly expands the family of admissible rules, the maximal domain of preferences involved remains basically unaltered. | Next, we analyze the maximality of the domain of preferences (including the domain of single-peaked preferences) for which a rule satisfying own-peak-onliness, efficiency, the equal division guarantee, and NOM exists. For the properties of efficiency, strategy-proofness, and symmetry, the single-plateaued domain is max... | Serizawa (1998) show that the single-plateaued domain is maximal for efficiency, symmetry, and strategy-proofness. As we have seen, when we weaken strategy-proofness to NOM (and explicitly invoke own-peak-onliness), the class of rules that also meet the equal division guarantee enlarges considerably. One may suspect th... | Serizawa (1998) show that the single-plateaued domain is the unique maximal domain for their properties. We show that this domain is one maximal domain for our properties. There could exist “pathological” maximal domains containing just a portion of the single-plateaued domain. Nevertheless, all of them have to be cont... | A |
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